The Lead-Up Lens: Runners and Races to Watch This Weekend

The road to Rosehill runs through Randwick this Saturday as the colts look to turn Todman Stakes glory into a Golden Ticket for the world’s richest two-year-old race!

Welcome back punters for the next installment of the Lead-Up Lens tracking the best autumn prep races into the Group 1 majors.

Farnan (2020) was the last colt to complete Todman Stakes / Golden Slipper double and this weekend we’ve got more exciting 2YOs to watch in the Group 2 as we count down to Slipper Day!

In Melbourne All-Star Mile Day sees a double shot of Group 1 action from the sprinters flashing down the straight in the Newmarket to Pride Of Jenni out to run them ragged in the All-Star Mile.

Further north however we’ve got a host of untapped juveniles facing off in the Group 2 Todman Stakes at Royal Randwick with all eyes on the upcoming $5 million Golden Slipper next month at Rosehill.

Eleven colts and geldings are locked in for the 2026 Todman Stakes over 1200m this weekend but is our Slipper winner there to find?  

It’s time to zero in on the business end of the program and identify which Todman Stakes standouts are primed to slash their odds in the Golden Slipper futures markets!

Todman Stakes 2026: The Ultimate Golden Slipper Launchpad

Randwick Race 4 – Group 2 $300,000 Todman Stakes (1200m)

• Lead-Up For: Group 1 $5 million Golden Slipper Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill on March 21

Punters wanting to find the winner of the world’s richest two-year-old race don’t need to look at the crystal ball—you look at the Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick this Saturday to guide your Slipper bets.

Historically, this is the most productive “Slipper Trial” for the boys, and the 2026 edition is shaping up to be a tactical affair.

With a ballot-free entry into the Slipper field on the line, the pressure is on the youngsters to prove they can handle the step up to 1200m.

Todman Stakes – Golden Slipper Double:

• Todman Stakes winner earns a Golden Slipper ballot exemption
• Todman named in honour of the legendary 1957 inaugural Golden Slipper winner
• Six horses have done the double
• Farnan (2020) the latest to achieve the feat
• The 2025 Todman form was franked by the runner-up Wodeton who ran a next-up second in the Golden Slipper results
• Over the last two decades, the Todman Stakes has produced more Golden Slipper winners than any other lead-up race for the boys

The lead-up to the Golden Slipper 2026 on March 21 is reaching fever peak, and this Saturday’s Todman Stakes Royal Randwick could unearth a few star young colts to watch ahead of the grand final.

Todman Top Guns: Who to Watch?

This year’s field is headlined by the Silver Slipper champ Stretan Ruler plus plenty of other talented colts looking to flip the script.

Markets however are led by the resuming Wyong Magic Millions winner Paradoxium for Bjorn Baker, while the Chris Waller-trained recent Canonbury Stakes champ Hidrix presents as a live chance to return to winning form.

Todman Tip: Tulloch Lodge have an ace record in the event and Eviction Notice shapes up as a value chance for Waterhouse & Bott in this year’s event!

There’s no shortage of form lines to unpack in Saturday’s Todman Stakes, and whichever colt comes out on top will launch into the 2026 Golden Slipper with serious momentum and confidence.

Paradoxium Poised: Todman Favourite Ready to Strike

No. 4 Paradoxium (5)

PARADOXIUM (5) gets back to the races for the first time since claiming Wyong’s Magic Millions Classic by a commanding 2.84 lengths back in December.

Baker’s progressive Extreme Choice colt is living up to his pedigree early having broken his maiden status with that big victory, which was an improved effort on his close fourth to Incognito at Randwick back in October’s Group 3 Breeders Plate on debut.

He was impressive in a subsequent winning Rosehill trial over 900m on Feb 23 putting over four lengths on the next over the line indicating he’s ready for Randwick chasing back-to-back wins.

Jason Collett retains the ride from gate five with options and maps to get an ideal run facing some stiffer competition now.

Do or die.

Golden Target: Paradoxium is the shortest-priced of the Todman runners in futures Golden Slipper betting at $9 through Ladbrokes. If he gets the job done for the punters on Saturday, his quote is going shorten potentially putting him on top. Like him? Back him now!

The Challengers: Will a Genuine Slipper Threat Emerge?

While the spotlight sits firmly on the headline colts, the Todman Stakes has a habit of producing a late‑season X‑factor type who explodes onto the scene. With a $5 million Golden Slipper berth up for grabs, there’s no shortage of young challengers ready to crash the party and shake up the pecking order.

No. 1 Stretan Ruler (4)

STREATAN RULER (4) comes off a confidence boosting Silver Slipper win where he put the writing on the wall with an enormous 3.47 length romp home at Rosehill.

That was his first Sydney assignment and he handled it aplomb.

Earlier two starts in Melbourne were also excellent when second in the Listed Merson Cooper last November on debut going down a nostril flare to the horse he beat in the Silver Slipper, Eviction Notice, and a Blue Diamond Prelude fourth first-up.

On an upwards trajectory, will easily see out the six furlongs, drawn a dream in gate four and Chad Schofield sticks with.

Beat plenty of these last time out without breaking a sweat and has strong claims to go back-to-back now.

No. 2 Hidrix (9)

HIDRIX (9) runs for master trainer Waller third-up and fit.

The Extreme Choice grey made an immediate impact winning Rosehill’s Group 3 Canonbury on debut by nearly two lengths at double-figures on Jan 31.

Went to the Silver Slipper next start and finished third after doing it tough, posted wide and needing more ground to hit top gear.

There was plenty of merit in the run and suggestions that the step up in trip now will see him finish close again.

Blinkers go on to sharpen him up and, while he need a touch of luck from the wider draw, he’s got the class to finish top three again.

No. 11 Tornado Valley (7)

Ciaron Maher can do little wrong right now and he’s got the chance to unlock a ticket to the Slipper with TORNADO VALLEY (7) being kept safe in the Todman markets after a string of good runs.

The best tried in the field having his fifth start now, the Too Darn Hot colt was really good in his opening campaign over the spring placing in a Caulfield Black-Type before taking out the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate at HQ during the Cup Carnival.

The good form continued when he went to Queensland in the summer running second without disgrace in the Group 3 BJ McLachlan before finishing a length back to Unit Five in the $3 million Magic Millions 2YO Classic at the Goldie.

Hasn’t raced since but has done enough to suggest Maher knows he’ll be there to do more than just make up numbers.

Todman Stakes Best Bets

Todman Stakes Form Facts

• Non-maidens have a strong strike-rate in the race so look for those with a past win on their CV
• Waterhouse-trained two-year-olds have an imposing recent record in the Todman
• Watch for runners proven over at least 1100m
• Favourites have a decent record with recent wins by Farnan ($1.80 in 2020) and Sejardan ($2.50 in 2022)

Historical Data: Does the Todman Stack Up?

Winning the Todman is great, but completing the Todman/Golden Slipper double is the stuff of legend.

Only a handful of elite colts have achieved it in recent history, and they usually go on to be multi-million dollar stallions.

When you’re hunting for Golden Slipper clues, the Todman is as reliable as it gets.

Year after year it proves the ultimate springboard for the top colts, delivering a genuine pressure test over 1200m before the perfect two‑week lead‑in to the $5 million grand final at Rosehill.

The “Close but No Cigar” Club

Even when the Todman winner doesn’t win the Slipper, they are almost always in the finish. In recent years, we’ve seen elite colts like Cylinder (2023) and Anamoe (2021) win the Todman only to be narrowly denied in the Slipper, proving that the form out of this race is incredibly sticky and reliable for punters.

Why it Works

The 14-day turnaround is the sweet spot for juvenile recovery. It allows trainers to give their colts a hard, competitive hit-out to peak their fitness without gutting them before the high-intensity pressure of a 16-horse Slipper field.

Punter’s Tip: Keep a close eye on the horses that finish in the top three of the Todman but are doing their best work through the line. History shows that a strong finishing flashing light run in the Todman is often more valuable than a cheap win on the lead.

Golden Slipper Market Watch

The Todman Stakes winner is almost guaranteed to jump into the top five of the Golden Slipper market by Saturday evening.

Currently, the Ladbrokes All-In market is wide open.

Punter’s Verdict

The Todman Stakes is rarely just about the prize money; it’s about the “Golden Ticket.”

If Stretan Ruler can handle the pressure from Paradoxium and find the line strongly over the Randwick 1200m, he becomes the horse to beat in the Slipper.

However, for those looking for value, Incognito has the spring class to jump back into the frame at a big price.

Keep a close eye on the finish—the horse that is strongest through the line on Saturday is usually the one wearing the flowers at Rosehill in two weeks.

Todman Stakes – Golden Slipper Double Winners:

• Luskin Star (1977)
• Marauding (1987)
• Tierce (1991)
• Pierro (2012)
• Vancouver (2015)
• Farnan (2020)

Happy punting Slipper fans!

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