Saturday Roughie Tips – August 1, 2026
Looking for the best Saturday roughies to get behind this weekend? Ladbrokes are here with our top value plays for the metro meetings as we count down to the spring.
It was a mixed bag for us last weekend, our roughie tips saved by Royal Insignia running second in the Aurie’s Star, and we’re keen to have a better go at finding those long shots with upside this Saturday around the nation.
With the opening Group 1 of the season just around the corner, now is the time to get behind the resuming stars and hot trial performers ready to show up early at good prices.
The action is headlined by the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Randwick where a 40/1 pop stands out for a Top 4 run, while we’ve also landed on a few in both Sydney and Melbourne who can surprise and have a genuine outsider not to discount in Morphettville’s Group 3 feature sprint.
Ladbrokes Value Whisperer, Lucy Henderson returns with her top Saturday roughie tips and best bets below.
What are the Best Value Racing Tips for August 8?
- Randwick Race 3 – No. 9 Blenheim Girl
- Randwick Race 6 – No. 6 Durova
- Randwick Race 8 – No. 6 Fully Lit
- Caulfield Heath Race 7 – No. 12 Censori
- Morphettville Race 7 – No. 4 Tippa
- Caulfield Heath Race 8 – No. 7 Jennivamoose
Randwick Race 3 – Early Value in Sydney
No. 9 Blenheim Girl
BLENHEIM GIRL (6) pays $12 at time of publish in the third in Sydney, and I’m more than happy to throw a little each way at that price on Chris Waller’s progressive mare.
The classy chestnut is lightly raced having just her fourth career starts this weekend and is already a two-time winner.
After a Gold Coast win to break her maiden status last December, she made a lovely return at Canterbury on July 22 over the 1200m in a F&M BM64.
Carrying 57kg she defeated You’re The Choice by a half-length and gets the chance to go on with it now up to the 1400m second-up and fitter for her resuming run.
The big weight drop back to 53kg is a massive advantage now and I think she’ll well equip herself against a tougher line-up of rivals.
Proven at the distance, she’s likely to settle midfield and will be there when it counts ready to charge through the line.
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9. Blenheim Girl (6)
J: Tyler Schiller 53kg
41×1T: Chris Waller
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| Second-up. First-up after seven months won by a long-neck at Canterbury F&M Bm64 July 22 over 1200m on a rain affected track defeating You’re The Choice with 57kg at $5.50. Previously second-up came from midfield and won by 1.2 len at Gold Coast Mdn-Sw December 27 over 1400m on a soft track defeating Peak Miss with 55kg at $4. Back in good order and will be strong late. | |||
Randwick Race 6 – Flyer at Double Figures
No. 6 Durova
DUROVA (3) lines up in a strong BM88 Handicap later on Missile Stakes Day and after a last start win, she could be ready to go on with it.
A consistent Russian Revolution mare from Scone, she’s been an absolute short-distance weapon over the 1000m with five wins from seven starts including a narrow but impressive effort in the Kirby at Grafton with 54kg on July 16.
She was buried early, peeled out, and surged late to nail Tectonic Plate.
Airborne all prep, that was her third win from her last four starts and showed she could really toughen up when asked for a grinding victory.
Happy to put a line through her home run when finishing at the tail end the start prior — nothing made ground that day and she was lumping 59kg.
Saturday marks just her second go at Royal Randwick and she’s not too badly weighted with 55.5kg, is drawn a dream in gate three and has Alysha Collett sticking in the saddle.
She gets a race with genuine tempo, she’s fit, and she’s in the right zone to give punters a cheeky fill‑up at good odds.
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6. Durova (3)
J: Alysha Collett 55.5kg
x1101T: Cameron Crockett
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| Most recently was well back until straightening; raced back then made ground from the turn; won by a long-neck at Grafton Kirby July 16 over 1000m defeating Tectonic Plate carrying 54kg at $3.70. The race before that 11th of 13 at Scone Bm78 on May 16 over 1100m, 7 len behind Wanaruah carrying 59kg at $20. Finds a nice race and is one of the major players. | |||
Randwick Race 8 – Lit Roughie Fully Overlooked
No. 6 Fully Lit
FULLY LIT (2) is at huge Missile Stakes odds of 40/1 at time of publish for Saturday’s feature race, and that looks way overs for this talented Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Group 1 performer.
The Hellbent five-year-old kicks off his spring here and has won first-up in the past.
A top tier 2YO back in 2024, he’s been a consistent force ever since including his brilliant second behind Waller’s star filly Autumn Glow at a similar blowout price over the mile here in last October’s Epsom Handicap.
Failed to fire in the $10 million Golden Eagle when 11th to the same rival and is yet to race in 2026 but has been brought on with a host of recent trials.
Not sure which version of this guy will show up on Saturday after nine months away, but with 56kg from gate two he’ll get a chance to make up some late ground and could add value to the exotics.
Long time off but he’s a shot for a Top 4 or 5 run if he shows up at his best.
Don’t forget to check out my full Missile Stakes 2026 tips, predictions and best bets for Saturday!
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6. Fully Lit (2)
J: Regan Bayliss 56kg
2320xT: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
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| Resuming after a break of nine months. Finished off last preparation 11th of 16 at this track Golden Eagle November 1 over 1500m, soft track; 7 len behind Autumn Glow with 57.5kg at $91. First up last campaign fourth of 8 at Rosehill Cg&E Bm78 May 31 2025 over 1200m, on heavy track; 4 len behind Kerguelen with 59.5kg at $5. Looks tested against this line-up. | |||
Caulfield Heath Race 7 – Don’t Censor This One
No. 12 Censori
CENSORI (14) is the kind of wet‑track smokey I don’t mind rolling the dice on in this BM74 in Melbourne.
The Danny O’Brien-trained Russian Revolution mare is absolutely humming through the winter with the bonny up-and-comer chasing a well‑earned hat‑trick in her 4YO debut.
She’s put together two dominant Sandown wins over the mile in 3YO fillies’ company, first smashing them by 3.5 lengths at Lakeside at $16 on a Heavy (9) track on July 1, then knuckling down late to score again at Hillside on another rain-affected course carting 59kg.
She handles the slop, she’s tough, and she’s clearly on an upward curve.
Gets another suitable set‑up, comes right back in weight to 56.5kg and should be in the fight if the track has any give.
Up in distance but looks every chance to run out the 1800m strongly, a Top 3 roughie worth a cheeky swing in the multis.
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12. Censori (14)
J: Lachlan Neindorf 56.5kg
54211T: Danny O’brien
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| Chasing a hat-trick. Most recently won by a head at Sandown-Hillside 3yo F Bm70 July 29 over 1600m on a heavy track defeating Missapprehend carrying 59kg at $4.20. The race before that ran on from midfield and scored a big 3.5 len win at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo F Bm64 July 1 over 1600m in the wet defeating Beautifully carrying 59kg at $16. In great form and should be right in the thick of things again. | |||
Morphettville Race 7 – Terrific Value Tip
No. 4 Tippa
TIPPA (3) has been well left alone by the punters listed at around $35 for a first-up win in the Group 3 Behemoth Stakes and, while I don’t think this ultra-consistent gelding will be first past the post especially considering he’s back from a 16-month break, he does tick plenty of boxes for a run that’s better than his price suggests.
A genuine Morphettville specialist (8:3-1-2), he rarely runs a bad race. Has been raced sparingly but shows up when asked.
Finished runner-up to Hellsing at his latest in the Listed City Of Adelaide Stakes (1529m) in April of 2025 but has been trialling nicely ahead of his return and is drawn for a dream run.
Should land on speed and give them something to chase.
Can hold on for a Top 4 or 5 finish and surprise.
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4. Tippa (3)
J: Kayla Crowther 58.5kg
1x52xT: Shayne & Chelsea Cahill
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| Resuming after a break of 16 months. Finished off last preparation second of 11 at this track in the LR City Adelaide April 12 2025 over 1529m, 1.0 len behind Hellsing with 54kg at $8.50. When resuming last campaign fifth of 13 at this track in the LR Matrice March 29 2025 over 1200m, 3.5 len behind Aviatress carrying 56.5kg at $61. Looks tested in this field. | |||
Caulfield Heath Race 8 – Late Chance in Melbourne
No. 7 Jennivamoose
JENNIVAMOOSE (4) is a lightly raced seven-year-old Vadamos mare from the master horseman Ciaron Maher having just her 16th start on the weekend.
Shapes up as the kind of first‑up wildcard I think could surprise, and I believe the 1800m for her campaign kickoff is ideal.
She showed some genuine staying talent last prep, which rounded out with her fourth to Revelare in the Group 3 Lexus Archer Stakes only two lengths beaten but failing to gain her Melbourne Cup ballot exemption.
Runs for the first time since that brave mid-September performance, so has been off the scene for almost a year, but looks capable of producing a sharp run fresh when she’s right.
She’s placed first-up before, including a strong third over this exact trip at Sandown last campaign, and is a tough/honest type often overlooked in the markets.
Maher rarely makes a poor placement, and if she brings anything close to her best, she’s the type who can slide into the finish late and blow up the exotics at a price.
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7. Jennivamoose (4)
J: Jett Stanley 55.5kg
4114xT: Ciaron Maher
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| Mare back from a spell of 11 months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last preparation fourth of 12 at Flemington in the G3 Archer Stks September 13 over 2500m, 2.25 len behind Revelare carrying 54kg at $7.50. First up last campaign third of 12 at Sandown-Hillside Bm70 May 21 2025 over 1800m, 0.8 len behind Callmeanicon carrying 57kg at $15. Could sprint well fresh. | |||
That’s the lot for this week’s Saturday roughies — Hendo’s Hopefuls locked, loaded and ready to cause a bit of mischief as we move ever closer to top tier spring racing. Slide them into your Same Race Multis or take a swing at the double‑figure fancies and let’s continue the new season in style!
Happy punting!
Saturday Racing Previews
Saturday Roughies – FAQs
Hendo loves a roughie that’s trending upwards — horses coming off a sneaky good run, a sharp trial, or a clear gear‑change spike. Momentum is everything when you’re shopping at big odds.
Plenty of long‑priced runners explode first‑up because they’ve had long, uninterrupted preps, clean trials, and arrive fitter than the market expects. Fresh legs can be a goldmine.
When leaders go too hard early, the race flips on its head — suddenly the swoopers and off‑speed runners become live chances at huge prices. Tempo chaos = roughie heaven.
Not always. Wide draws can actually help roughies who prefer clean air, long runs, and avoiding traffic. Some big‑priced horses thrive when they’re kept out of trouble.
Rain changes everything — action, footing, pace, and bias. Horses with proven wet form often jump out of the ground at double‑figure odds because the market underrates mudlarks.
A setup roughie is a horse landing in the perfect race: right trip, right map, right track, right conditions. When all the puzzle pieces align, Hendo gets interested — even at juicy odds.
Massive. When a stable places a horse aggressively, drops weight, or targets a specific race, it often signals they think the horse is ready to spike — even if the market disagrees.
Absolutely. Roughies with strong late‑closing profiles or consistent top‑five form can be brilliant value anchors in Top 3/Top 4/Top 5 legs.
A senior rider or a jockey who knows the horse’s quirks can turn a fringe chance into a genuine threat. Roughies often improve dramatically with the right pilot.
Early flucs, stable whispers, and sharp trial replays often reveal which outsiders are attracting interest. When a roughie firms late, Hendo always takes notice.