New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction, Tips & Odds

The third-placed Dolphins face a daunting road trip on finals debut, jetting to a heaving Go Media Stadium to take on the second-placed Warriors.  

FORM: The Warriors achieved a club record 18 wins by taking out their last six matches, though some defensive frailties on the edges were exposed in their last three wins over the Rabbitohs (45-26), a 12-man Knights (46-32) and the Sea Eagles (31-30).  

The Dolphins responded to a 66-0 loss to the Sharks in Round 19 by winning their last seven games. The made a strong statement with a 26-12 defeat of the Roosters in Round 26, but they were unconvincing in a 24-20 win over the Titans last weekend.  

INS AND OUTS: Jackson Ford returns from a 12-week layoff on the bench, bumping Eddie Ieremia-Toeava to the No.18 jersey. Leka Halasima, Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell return from a week off, while Taine Tuaupiki retains the fullback spot with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad staying on DWZ’s wing. 

A full-strength Dolphins side welcomes back Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and Kulikefu Finefeuaki from one-week injury layoffs. Jake Averillo, Brian Pouniu and Tevita Naufahu all drop to the reserves.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Te Maire Martin was magnificent in his first game in a month last week, laying on three tries and having a major hand in three more. Isaiya Katoa is one of the best No.7s in the game but is on finals debut.  

HISTORY: The clubs have split their eight encounters four wins apiece, with the last six decided by four points or less and neither team winning more than one game in a row. This season, the Warriors won 20-18 in Wellington and the Dolphins struck late to win 26-24 in Brisbane.   

KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has scored nine tries in eight games for the Dolphins against the Warriors.  

The Warriors have not won a week one finals match since 2008.   

VERDICT: The Warriors’ intensity has dropped off in recent weeks – but their competition-leading attack has been enough for them to keep winning. With the stakes raised and troops returning, expect them to find the same relentless that proved too much for the Panthers at home in Round 23.  

Martin and Tuaupiki were outstanding in a patchy team display last week, while the Warriors’ contingent of middle forwards is without peer in the NRL.   

The Dolphins boast perhaps the NRL’s most potent back-five, they have a classy halves combo and a host of forwards are enjoying breakout campaigns with a bench perhaps only the Warriors can match.  

But on finals debut, this is a hostile environment to come to and the Warriors should be primed to go up a gear. 

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS BY 1-12 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHARNZE NICOLL-KLOKSTAD ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $73.12