Shepparton Harness Preview – Tuesday 20th October

OVERVIEW: Tricky maiden to start the program, with the exposed form a little underwhelming, mixed in with a few runners returning from a break or making their debuts. MY ROC (7) is a 2yo who’s had plenty of experience at the trials and most recently looked quite furnished, showing speed. The stablemate who just beat him there has since shown good race form. The draw is no luxury, but he was nice off the arm in the trials, so he may still take up a forward position. 

JASPER JAY (6) is a 2yo in his second preparation and was runner-up in a trial to a horse who’s raced well since. He had some form around decent types last time in, so if he’s forward enough, he should run well. ARTIES COURAGE (5) was well beaten on debut, but to be fair, they went quickly and the quinella horses are above-average types. She had trialled well prior, so I’m happy to give her another chance. DYGANALI (1) has the best of the exposed form and was sound to the line last time when 3rd. A soft draw and the most in-form driver at this track appeal. 

SELECTIONS: MY ROC (7), JASPER JAY (6), ARTIES COURAGE (5), DYGANALI (1) 

OVERVIEW: LEONARD (2) is a very quick beginner and looks an easy leader here, which is a good starting point. He was a winner here five runs back using that pattern over this distance, and while the time wasn’t overly flash, he can maintain an advantage over his main dangers, who are drawn a little awkwardly. 

KRISSY (7) could easily appeal on the win line based on her current form, which has been good, particularly her win three back where she burned the candle at both ends. It’s just the draw that sees her having to work hard. Her 2nd here two runs back has proven a good form race, producing winners since. MAJOR ORION (8) is crying out for a win since he came back to Victoria from Queensland, and he’s been racing well from better draws where he can be up on the pace. He’ll need the breaks to come at the right time, but he can’t be underestimated. OUR BELLA LUCIA (9) is hard to assess because she wasn’t great first up, but her form last campaign when Herbertson was aboard saw her win at Melton in a time that would win this. She must be kept safe. IM DUSTEE (1) is not a quick beginner, but if he can hunt hard to hold the leader’s back, he would come into it. However, he is still up in class, so I prefer him on the minor line. 

BACK: LEONARD (2) – 2 units (win) 

SELECTIONS: LEONARD (2), KRISSY (7), MAJOR ORION (8), OUR BELLA LUCIA (9) 

OVERVIEW: ANIMADO (6) could be open to sharp improvement here, back to a suitable grade from a draw where he can be driven forward and race on the speed, which he loves to do. He’s found a couple of bad set-ups and run into a couple of sharp ones this preparation. Now rock-hard fit at his favourite track and distance, he can prove hard to beat. 

SASSY GABBY (4) is an interesting runner first up here off an okay trial, and she only had the one run last preparation for a 3rd before having another break. She’s displayed talent and gets Herbertson to drive, so she warrants respect despite lacking fitness. HEZ HARRYWHO (3) is a fast beginner who likes this track and distance, and although he can be a little hard to catch, his racing pattern will keep him in it for a long way. OVER THE LINE (7) has been racing well but has a terrible draw to contend with here, so he goes on the minor line. FULL CRUNCH AHEAD (8) hasn’t been trialling well, and although his exposed form may attract some market support, I’d prefer to see him at this stage. 

BACK: ANIMADO (6) – 2 units (win) 

SELECTIONS: ANIMADO (6), SASSY GABBY (4), HEZ HARRYWHO (3), OVER THE LINE (7) 

OVERVIEW: KRAKEY (6) is up in grade on the ratings scale, but to be fair, this isn’t an overly strong race. He really connected with Liam Older last week, showing terrific gate speed and strength, which was more akin to his form last season. A repeat of that will see him hard to beat. 

WHERES WOOD WOOD (4) has never raced better than she has this season, winning six of her 16 races this year. She’s been versatile in how she’s gone about her business too, so the draw suits. ALTA BAYAMO (9) can be a little hard to catch and may be better off the front row, but he is slightly down in grade and Herbertson takes the drive, so he will no doubt have admirers and is in the mix. SHEZABLUECHIP (5) has been in good form, winning two of her last three, and does best when she can race up on the pace, so she is map dependent. 

BACK: KRAKEY (6) – 2 units (win) 

SELECTIONS: KRAKEY (6), WHERES WOOD WOOD (4), ALTA BAYAMO (9), SHEZABLUECHIP (5) 

OVERVIEW: DONA AMALIA (7) was a winner back in February, and that was the last time she partnered with James Herbertson. Despite the draw, this looks to be a suitable line-up with several unreliable types. If she brings her manners, she can be hard to beat. 

SKYVALLEY BOY (2) has a strong SP profile in four runs for the new stable but has been a little unreliable when it comes to getting the job done. His 2nd first up suggests he’s doing well enough for this level, so if you’re willing to take the risk, he’s a chance. ABBIE (8) is a little awkwardly drawn but has been consistent overall without winning. She’s normally a grinding type, so she will need luck working into the race but is in the mix. ALDEBARAN MISTIQUE (3) can begin well and potentially take up a forward position here. She was a winner at Kilmore five runs back from that position and has been sound since then, particularly when she gets near the lead. KIMBERLYS TREE (6) can show gate speed and talent, but she just hasn’t trotted well in her last couple. Her SP profile suggests she should be considered, and CLASSIC FAIR (9) was good winning on debut but has been a little plain since. Respect the trainer/driver combination enough to throw him into the Quaddie. 

SELECTIONS: DONA AMALIA (7), SKYVALLEY BOY (2), ALDEBARAN MISTIQUE (3), KIMBERLYS TREE (6) 

OVERVIEW: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (5) has been near faultless in four runs for new trainer Brooke McPherson, winning three straight before his 2nd at Menangle last time, when he was a well-supported favourite and still ran well. This doesn’t look any more challenging than what he’s been taking on, so there’s no reason he can’t go on with it. 

SYDTHESLOTH (3) may be the X-factor here, having been out of his depth taking on the best of his age group. He’s had a freshen-up without a trial but now gets Herbertson, so he’s an intriguing market watch to see if he can turn his fortunes around. STRAIGHT TO THETOP (9) has had excuses her past couple, but she is starting to become a little costly. She’s always thereabouts, so don’t dismiss her. WAIKARE ADRIANA (7) is second up here and hasn’t had any luck with barrier draws this campaign. She does like this track, so despite needing a bit of luck, she deserves consideration. SHEZALOVER (6) is having her first run for the new stable and won a trial fairly leading into this. She is a little hard to line up but is worth keeping safe. 

BACK: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (5) – 4 units (win) 

SELECTIONS: ALDEBARAN DENBAY (5), SYDTHESLOTH (3), STRAIGHT TO THETOP (9), WAIKARE ADRIANA (7) 

OVERVIEW: YELLA (7) drops in grade for this and was good last week from a bad draw, where he drifted back to last and made good ground late. He’s going well enough to win again and will need luck in running, but his performance three back is good enough to win this. 

TREACHEROUSTIMES (5) has a good strike rate at this track, and he can show gate speed from this draw and be driven assertively to look for the front. His best form comes when he’s able to race up on the pace. BERYLS BOOTS (4) has been in consistent form and finds a slightly better draw than he’s faced in his last couple. He’s in the mix again. JOEYS HANGOVER (3) didn’t have much luck here in his past couple, but his runs have been sound this time in, including a win three back. 

SELECTIONS: YELLA (7), TREACHEROUSTIMES (5), BERYLS BOOTS (4), JOEYS HANGOVER (3) 

OVERVIEW: SUZYS DREAM (4) has something many of the others don’t, and that’s a recent victory, having scored at Kilmore in a similar grade to this. She will have to earn it the way the map works out, but if she gets there, it will be late. 

CHRISTMAS BABE (1) would be odds-on if you were betting on the leader, as she is a very quick beginner, but she often feels the pinch in the concluding stages. She will give a sight, though. JAKEE BOY (8) is hard to have on form, but James Herbertson is worth so much, particularly in a race like this where the form doesn’t stand out. BET BET HOTSHOT (7) has gate seven, which makes the map challenging to overcome, but he was a winner four runs back, so he is in the mix in a race that’s hard to be confident about. 

SELECTIONS: SUZYS DREAM (4), CHRISTMAS BABE (1), JAKEE BOY (8), BET BET HOTSHOT (7)