If we thought the battle for the top eight, four and even two would be decided by now, we were very, very wrong.

The race towards Big Boy Month has never been this hot with every team from the Lions down to the Bulldogs still finding their place in the pecking order.

We’ve dissected every game of the action-packed Round 19 and provided our best bets below.

 

The fixturing gods have failed us again with a Thursday night clash between the injury-riddled Bombers and in-form Giants.

Essendon, who has now lost six games on the bounce, will debut their 13^th player this season when Liam McMahon dons the sash for the first time.

Nic Martin (ACL) and Will Setterfield (foot) will be sidelined for the remainder of the season, while Nate Caddy (soreness) and Ben Hobbs (groin) will also watch on.

The Giants have a few issues of their own with Jesse Hogan (foot) and Josh Kelly (hip) missing the trip to Marvel, but the return of former captain Stephen Coniglio will ensure they can make it five wins on the trot as they push for a top four spot.

Tip: Toby Greene (GWS Giants) 3+ Goals @ $2.50

 

If there’s a side that desperately needs a win against a top team, it’s the Western Bulldogs.

After going down to the Crows by 11 points last weekend, the flat-track bullies did little to change their reputation, despite a 37-disposal and 12-tackle performance from Marcus Bontempelli.

The Lions went one step closer to securing their top four berth with a 37-point win over Carlton but will need to find replacements for Noah Answerth and Zac Bailey.

The Bulldogs have lost each of their seven previous matches at the Gabba against teams on a winning streak, and it’s safe to say the Lions are hot to trot.

Tip: Total Points Over 174.5 @ $1.88

 

Hawthorn will be looking to overcome a disappointing result against Fremantle last weekend when they host the Power down in Tassie.

Leading by 13 points at the last break, the Hawks watched on as the Dockers slotted four consecutive goals in the final term.

It also means Sam Mitchell’s men are just one game clear in the eight, but they’re still one week away from the return of star midfielder Will Day.

The Power continued their mini resurgence with a 26-point triumph over the Eagles, but will undoubtedly be rocked by a season-ending foot injury to Jason Horne-Francis.

Mitch Georgiades has kicked 4+ goals in each of Port Adelaide’s last three matches against opponents that were ranked higher on the ladder, but we don’t think he’ll have enough help to get over the Hawks.

Tip: Hawthorn To Win 1-39 @ $2.05

 

The dream is still alive for the Bloods.

Albeit highly unlikely, Dean Cox and his chargers are three games outside the eight after winning four of their last five matches.

Tom McCartin will likely miss with concussion, but it will be offset somewhat by the return of Dane Rampe.

As for North Melbourne, their season might be well and truly over, but they can still cause some upsets along the way – just not this week.

They once again showed something for three quarters against the Dees, but things will get even tougher with the suspension to star ruckman Tristan Xerri.

Tip: Callum Mills (Sydney Swans) 25+ Disposals @ $2.25

 

This could potentially be the most nerve-racking week in the history of Michael Voss’s coaching career.

Carlton’s leader has faced hurdles at every turn of his side’s underwhelming 6-11 season, but a loss to the Dees would almost certainly spell the end for him at Princes Park.

Mitch McGovern (hamstring) and Orazio Fantasia (hamstring) will return, but it will be a wait-and-see for Adam Saad (concussion).

Melbourne overcame a gallant Kangaroos side and ran out 37-point winners on the back of 31 disposals and a goal from Christian Petracca.

Jake Lever has been ruled out with soreness, which doesn’t bode overly well for a team that’s lost each of its last six matches on a six-day turnaround.

Tip: Both Teams To Score 70 @ $1.80

 

If the Richmond vs Essendon clash was the worst game of footy in recent memory, we may see back-to-back records when they take on the last-placed Eagles on Saturday night.

While the game was putrid in almost every respect, the Tigers still saluted against a higher-ranked team and claimed their fourth win of the season.

The Eagles, who have managed just one victory so far this year, would be buoyed by the output of Harley Reid’s 27 disposals (minus the carry on), and the fact Richmond has lost each of its last 13 away matches.

Tip: West Coast Eagles To Win @ $1.73

 

Is Geelong beginning to choke at the most important time of the season?

The fourth-placed Cats suffered their second loss in three weeks when going down to the Giants by 26 points, meaning they’re now on the same number of points as Fremantle in eighth.

Sam De Koning (shoulder) is expected to suit up for Chris Scott, while Jeremy Cameron’s groin concern will be monitored.

A year of so close but so far continued for the Saints in their Round 18 clash with the Swans, as they gave up a 13-point lead at the final break.

Dan Butler will miss with a dislocated elbow, but we’re not sure it’d make much difference against a Cats outfit fighting for their top four life.

Tip: Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) 16+ Disposals @ $1.70

 

Collingwood will be looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season when they host Fremantle at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.

It was a first half to forget for the premiership favourites as they went goalless before a Josh Daicos-inspired comeback gave them a sniff against the Suns.

They’ve won five-straight against the Dockers in recent years and that confidence will only be boosted by the return of Brody Mihocek and Pat Lipinski.

The Dockers, who sit eighth on the ladder after their impressive comeback win over the Hawks, could potentially welcome Hayden Young back into the mix for the first time since Round 8.

They’ve built a 5-2 record against sides in the top half of the ladder, but will need everything to go right against the Pies at the ‘G.

Tip: Fremantle (+21.5) To Cover @ $1.90

 

Two teams who have well and truly arrived and in the hunt for a top four finish, Adelaide will play host to the Gold Coast Suns on Sunday afternoon.

The Crows made it three wins in a row when they edged past the Bulldogs in Melbourne, with Jordan Dawson (27 & 2 goals) strengthening his case for a Brownlow Medal at the end of the season.

The Suns were equally impressive in their Friday night blockbuster against the Magpies, holding on for a six-point win.

Touk Miller will miss the next month with a hamstring tear, with Sam Flanders likely to see more midfield minutes as a result.

They could also regain Sam Collins if he passes a fitness test.

Game of the round, flip a coin.

Tip: Sam Flanders (Gold Coast Suns) 25+ Disposals @ $2.10

2024

It’s the time of year where we all head to the ladder predictor and punch in our tips, making all the calculations of what’s possible for each team over the remaining weeks.

The pressure intensifies and the games get better and better as we near September action.

So, here are our predictions for the week, with all the tips and punts in a big week of footy all here in your AFL Round 19 Preview.

 

Essendon ”fail” tests against top sides given where they sit on the ladder, but the reality is they’re a 5-8 team that will make finals but isn’t ready to contend for higher honours just yet.

But to ensure they make finals, they must beat the Crows on Friday night to get themselves two wins away from 13 wins which usually guarantees a spot in September action.

Adelaide has certainly had a good back end to the season, improving week by week, able to string together some good performances from time to time.

They’re a typically poor side on the road and haven’t beaten the Bombers in Melbourne since 2017.

The Bombers have been dominating possession in their recent outings, and their last two weeks are a perfect example of how an opposition’s class can easily limit their impact.

Their chase and hunt for the footy offensively has jumped off the page and they’re able to create good looks at times but are error-prone under pressure.

Adelaide will come in with good confidence defensively, keeping the Saints to only 39 points.

It’s a hard task against the Bombers who love playing at Marvel, scoring over 90 points in four out of six games this year, and to mention they haven’t lost there all year.

Adelaide’s tackle pressure has increased, and they sit fifth in the competition, which will be the best way to test Essendon.

There’s a lot on the line for the Bombers, and it’s almost a dangerous game given the Crows ability to play with freedom, but under the roof, they’re always comfortable.

Tip: Bombers to win by 1-39 and Kyle Langford to kick 2+ goals @ $3.47

 

The Expansion Cup as branded by the GWS Social Media team makes its way back to Western Sydney, in a straightforward task for the Giants.

It’s straightforward in the sense that Gold Coast is incapable of winning on the road, and the Giants don’t even guarantee it to be a 50/50 contest.

The Suns were able to beat Port Adelaide last week at home, and still sit one game outside the top eight, making this a must-win in their eyes.

The Giants will certainly have top four in their sights, and a win against the Suns will most likely have them half a game outside of it.

GWS weren’t extremely punishing against the Tigers but didn’t need to be as they turned it on for periods that got them on top.

The Giants goal efficiency sits them third in the competition, only behind Sydney and Carlton, so no surprise they’re still right in the hunt at this time of year.

Where Gold Coast excels is their inside 50 average, second in the competition, but their inability to impact on the road almost nullifies the statistic.

Gold Coast is second last for stoppage clearances, which is the Giants’ game at times, so if they’re unable to neutralise at the stoppages they’ll fall behind quite quickly.

Tip: Giants to cover the line (-17.5) and Matt Rowell 20+ disposals @ $2.37

 

This is quietly an interesting game on paper given recent form and the productivity either side can produce at their best.

The Saints were in the contest against the Crows last week but in pouring conditions, they fell away in the second half.

The Eagles took it up to the Lions but were outclassed in the stoppages and unable to limit Brisbane’s variety of scorers.

St Kilda looked a lot more promising against the Swans when they played offensively and showed some spark in transition.

West Coast has been able to generate a good amount of scoring shots each week and on the road, they have to convert, or else they’ll find themselves playing catch-up like they did against the Bombers a few weeks back.

The rise of St Kilda’s youth should be their go-to in the final stages of the year, with the likes of Mattaes Phillipou, Cooper Sharman, and Nasiah Wanganeen-Millera really coming to the fore at the moment.

The same goes for the Eagles, and in a period with a lot of development left to go, they should attack this game with a lot of freedom through the corridor.

The Saints were able to take down the Eagles in Perth earlier this year, so even in a close contest at home, it’s a game they shouldn’t drop.

Tip: Saints to win by 1-39 and Oscar Allen Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.57

 

The new primetime slot of 4:35pm on a Saturday is serving up a must-watch Elimination Final-like contest with Hawthorn and Collingwood playing for almost their season.

Realistically, the loser is all but gone in 2024, having to play catchup for the remainder of the season, with their chances not helped thanks to a tough run home.

Hawthorn has proven to be Collingwood’s bogey team for the last decade, even proven last year when the league leaders were taken down by Hawthorn.

Whilst both teams sit on the same number of points, 12th and 13th, but weirdly feel on either side of the spectrum when it comes to form and competitiveness.

Collingwood’s offensive patterns have been ineffective, and the reluctance to change their game plan has continued to let them down.

Hawthorn on the other hand have had quite a good balance, frantic with their offensive movement to get good looks inside, whether it’s to their bigs or smalls.

Hawthorn sits fourth in the competition for disposal efficiency, whilst the Pies sit second last, so pressure around the contest from the Hawks will limit Collingwood’s output.

The Pies have been beaten by uncontested systems the last fortnight, and the Hawks capitalise on that exact style, which isn’t ideal in their form.

The Hawks ran the tag on Nick Daicos at the MCG last year, and it could be the way to go again.

Hawthorn was one kick away from beating the Pies in Gather Round at their worst, so hard to see them dropping this game in such emphatic form.

Tip: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 @ $2.40

 

The Cats are back in some good form, but it’s still not convincing to suggest they will threaten the premiership contention at the moment.

That statement is based on their lack of defensive accountability, which was evident against the Pies, but ended up being paper over the cracks with how bad Collingwood’s offensive output was.

That being said they’re still finals bound and have set themselves up for a top four lock, but not with an easy challenge ahead with the Dogs who took down the Blues last week.

It was forward half pressure and intensity that kept the Dogs on top of the contest last week and they were able to generate consistent scoring shots.

Whilst they scored heavily, they also conceded a large amount of scoring shots themselves, which is the challenge this week, to reduce it even more against a rampaging Cats forward line at GMHBA.

Both sides average exactly the same number of inside 50s per game, but the Cats typically use it better, sitting top four for marks inside 50.

On the narrow GMHBA turf, it suits the Cats style of frantic movement inside 50, as the Dogs do prefer wider forward movement off half back.

The Dogs were victorious the last time they visited the Cattery, which was in hindsight a dead rubber for Geelong in the final round but would certainly instil them with confidence they can do it again.

Inconsistency has been an issue for the Bulldogs all year, so a repeat of last week’s effort must happen for them to be a chance.

Tip: Geelong to win by 1-39 and Jack Macrae to have 20+ disposals @ $3.64

 

Not too many footy fans are shaking their heads at the Power’s loss to Gold Coast at their fortress, but the hopes of top four start to become a challenge for the Power in a difficult run home.

This is probably the Power’s last game of the year heading in as clear favourites, and it’s a must-win sitting outside the top eight for the first time in months.

Richmond aren’t easy beats however, they’re certainly competitive, but lack depth in talent.

Their last trip to Adelaide was a successful one for the Tigers as they beat the Crows for their second win of the year, so they’re certainly comfortable at the ground.

Port has continued to be there or thereabouts this season, no real threat to premiership contention but flat track bullies which guarantees them the bottom half of finals most likely.

The midfield is a class above for Port Adelaide against Richmond and the Tigers have fallen over when it comes to speedy transition, which the Power is capable of out of the centre stoppages in particular.

Richmond still brings a bullish nature to the contest and if they’re able to maintain pressure across four quarters there’s no reason they can’t stay within touching distance.

To ask that of four quarters is where the Tigers fall down, and away from home it’s an even harder task.

Tip: Mitch Georgiades to kick 2+ goals and Jacob Hopper to have 25+ disposals @ $2.17

 

Brisbane has come from the clouds to sit in the top four for the first time this year, and this is literally a Qualifying Final if you look at positions on the ladder.

The Swans bounced back against the Roos but will be hoping to show they’re still a level above the competition with a big win away at the Gabba.

The Lions fought out a tough win against the Eagles in Perth, which is never an easy feat with the long trip across Australia.

Sydney was at their best when the offensive pressure was intense from their midfield group, and with all their talent, they made it difficult to predict their forward moving patterns.

Brisbane continues to get Brownlow form Lachie Neale dominating in the middle around the contest and helped about by Hugh McLuggage, there’s almost a certainty about Brisbane’s dominance quarter-to-quarter.

Much like the Swans the Lions were able to share the footy around forward of centre with six multiple goal kickers.

Defensively the Swans have struggled to recoup themselves on transition at times, and the Lions must find a way to test them in transition on the smaller ground.

Sydney hasn’t won at the Gabba since 2021, but their last outing in 2023 was one of the Lions more competitive challenges, so they’re certainly capable.

The Lions could either establish themselves as a premiership favourite or fall back into the heap in the race for finals.

A lot on the line, but at the Swans best, they should be able to win.

Tip: Swans to win by 1-39 @ $2.50

 

The Dockers look ready to attack the top four and make a statement in September, but something always seems to go wrong, which happened last week with their loss to Hawthorn.

They’re still firmly in the mix however and come up against the Dees who are going under-the-radar in the race for finals actions.

Unbelievably, it was only 59 days ago when this game takes place where Freo went to Alice Springs and demolished the Dees by 92 points.

That was the lowest Melbourne has gotten to all year, and there is certainly a clause for some payback, which makes this game dangerous for the Dockers.

Over in WA, it makes a big difference, but the Dockers have only played Melbourne at Optus once, losing that game.

Melbourne looks a different side with inclusions like Jake Melksham, adding an offensive flare they’ve seemingly lacked at times.

Fremantle has turned away from the ultra-defensive mode they started the year with, but there’s every potential it could come out in a contest like this where the Dees will look to go direct through the corridor to enter inside 50.

The centre stoppage battle will be to Freo’s advantage, and if they’re able to penetrate Melbourne’s forward 50 with direct and punchy entries, they’ll limit their rebounding opportunities.

Almost a mini–Elimination Final in the sense that Melbourne loses and top four becomes a stretch, and Freo loses and they become implanted in the mix for top four instead of half a game out.

Home deck and off a bad loss, the Dockers should bounce back in a great contest.

Tip: Dockers to win by 1-39 and Jye Amiss Anytime Goal Kicker @ $2.57

 

Carlton is in a bad patch of form, and ever since their scintillating first quarter against the Giants two weeks ago, they’ve been unable to maintain pressure around the contest they were elite at in the last two months.

It’s not the worst time of the year to be in a slump, and they’ll look to pick it back up against the Roos this week, who were blitzed by the Swans at the SCG.

The Roos were unable to defend multiple goal threats, and if the Blues are to win comfortably that’s the route they’ll have to take, rather than giving the Roos only two targets to think about.

Carlton’s ball movement was lacking conviction against the Dogs, and their inability to defend the centre stoppage surges towards defensive 50 made the task to rebound entries even harder.

North Melbourne was outclassed when these two sides met last on Good Friday, as the Blues kicked at least five goals in every quarter.

The selection table becomes an interesting watch for the Blues, who need to get the balance right in the midfield, unable to stamp authority against the Dogs.

The output from North Melbourne’s bottom end hasn’t been substantial enough to carry out games against top sides, but when they’re able to get involved they certainly remain more competitive.

On paper, the Blues shouldn’t have too many issues, but with form not in their favour, and a certainly improved North side from the start of the year, this could be more interesting than expected.

Tip: Blues to win by 1-39 and Harry Sheezel to have 25+ disposals @ $3.34

2023

Six weeks of Aussie Rules footy stand between now and the AFL finals, and the race for a spot in the eight continues to heat up.  

Only four points separate 13th from 6th on the AFL Ladder, and there are a handful of key games set to play out this weekend, starting with a massive clash on Friday night between the Dons and the Dogs.  

The Tigers and Blues both face favourable assignments against respective bottom dwellers, while the Lions and Cats square off in a potential finals preview at the Gabba. 

A 1st vs 2nd clash awaits on Saturday night with Port hosting Collingwood, the Power out for revenge on their early season thrashing at the MCG.  

We’ve run through all nine games on the slate, and offer our best bets in our Round 19 Preview! 

 

The Bombers had a top-four spot in their grasp last week, but a blowout loss to the Cats has not only left them sitting precariously in eighth position, but also cast enormous doubt over the club’s chances of winning a final.  

A return home to Marvel might be just what the Dons need, but standing in their way is an equally desperate Bulldogs team looking to maintain their spot in the hunt.  

With pressure mounting, the hot seat is now firmly warming underneath head coach Luke Beveridge, the Dogs suffering another close loss to the Swans last week in a game they really should have won.  

Structurally, the Bulldogs are a tough team to get a read on, they’ve lacked direction all year and it feels like several players are unsure of their role.  

The Bombers don’t have that problem, but scoring points has proven a challenge at times – a worrying sign against a Dogs team that just needs to find some accuracy in front of goal.  

The Bulldogs have averaged 23 scoring shots a game, but as we saw last week, they often squander their opportunities inside 50.  

On the plus side, the Dogs are averaging nearly five more forward half entries compared to the Bombers, while there’s also a stark difference in the tackle count between the pair.  

With only two wins from their last five games, neither of these two teams are reliable, but with the Bombers leaking an average of 97 points over the last month, the Doggies look to have a huge opportunity to get back on track.  

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90 

 

 

Four wins from their last five games has the Tigers right back on track to make finals.  

There’s still some ground to make up, but a favourable run home starts this week against Hawthorn – a side Richmond has had no problem beating in recent years.  

The Tigers last lost to the Hawks way back in 2020, and fans should hold fond memories of two blowout victories last year that saw them total well over 100 points on each occasion.  

That said, Hawthorn has certainly improved in the second year of Sam Mitchell’s coaching regime, the Hawks prevailing in comfortable fashion last week against a hapless North Melbourne outfit.  

The Hawks’ midfield looks set for a very bright future, and although they are still firmly in rebuild mode, it’s clear the players are buying into Sam Mitchell’s aggressive strategy and game plan.  

Hawthorn’s hard-nosed style of footy has left them vulnerable against teams that can score, which could be the case this weekend against an in-form Richmond side that continues to see enormous production from Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin.  

On the other side, the Tigers have been vulnerable down back though, which could see this turn into a shootout if Hawthorn’s forward line is up for the challenge.  

Richmond currently ranks third in inside 50s allowed to opponents, not to mention the fact the Hawks have been a much more efficient team when it comes to disposals.  

Tip: Hawthorn Over 72.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

 

 

Winners of four straight, a percentage-boosting win could be on the cards this week for the Blues as they continue their late-season turnaround.  

Michael Voss has his side playing a rejuvenated brand of footy, ball movement being the main improvement after so many stagnant weeks of forward half play.  

Patrick Cripps has returned to his best, while the likes of Adam Cerra and Sam Docherty have also stepped up a gear in recent weeks.  

The injury bug has unfortunately landed a crucial blow with Harry McKay suffering a knee injury in last week’s upset over Port Adelaide, but with Charlie Curnow in Coleman Medal-winning from, Carlton fans shouldn’t sweat too much.  

Also on the plus side is a mammoth 108-point win over West Coast when the Blues flew to Perth earlier in April.  

After booting nine that evening, Curnow could wrap up the Charlie with another bag, while the likes of Cripps, Sam Walsh, and Blake Acres also walked away with a serious case of leather poisioning.  

Defensively, West Coast are trying their best to set up behind the footy and stop the bleeding, but with Blues fans up and about, and the finals back within reach, this should be nothing more than another mauling.  

Tip: Back the Blues to Cover the Line (-65.5 Points) @ $1.90 

 

 

The top four is back in focus on Saturday with 3rd and 5th squaring off in a huge twilight blockbuster from the Gabba.  

The Lions squandered an enormous opportunity to secure home ground advantage throughout finals last week, losing another agonising clash at the ‘G by a single point to Melbourne.  

Glass half full, Chris Fagan has to be pleased with the way his side responded to an early deficit, particularly with the likes of Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, and young Jaspa Fletcher all stepping up on the big stage.  

Of course, there’s plenty to be said for a serious Premiership contender blowing a 30+ point lead – another concerning sign with the Cats in red-hot form and suddenly looking like a dark horse for the flag.

After an early season hangover, Geelong has come roaring back into the top eight, knocking off the Bombers last week in blowout fashion thanks to a massive five-goal haul from Tom Hawkins.  

With familiar faces back, Chris Scott’s side has really discovered some of its mojo, and although the reigning Premiers have nothing left to prove, this does shape as a statement game with the Cats still searching for just their second win away from home.  

Given this is basically a finals-like matchup, you can almost bet on a high-pressure game playing out.  

The Lions will be out for revenge on last year’s dismal Prelim loss, hoping to prove themselves every threat to Collingwood in the process.  

The Cats have been in excellent form over the last month, but it’s tough to read too much into a draw against Sydney, and a pair of blowout wins over North and Essendon.  

The Lions and their lack of leadership is the big query moving forward, but perhaps last week’s heartbreaker was the loss this club needed at a crucial point in the season.  

Given Brisbane has been a much better side when it comes to clearances and tackles, the Lions are hard to back against at the Gabbatoir.  

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.15 

 

 

It’s the general opinion of most fans and experts that the Power and Pies are the top two contenders for the flag this year, and we should learn plenty about just how genuine their claims are in Saturday’s rematch from Round 2.  

The Pies put on a 71-point clinic at the MCG that afternoon, Nick Daicos dazzling with 32 disposals, and Brody Mihocek chipping in three goals for good measure.  

That loss was the start of something special for Port Adelaide, winners of 13 straight prior to last week’s upset loss to Carlton. 

Uncharacteristically, the Power fell behind when allowing six goals in the second term to the Blues, also getting dominated in the hit-outs and turning the ball over at crucial times.  

Fortunately, Ken Hinkley’s side could be in for a boost with Charlie Dixon and Jason Horne-Francis likely returning to the side, but if the Power fail to take care of the footy, there’s no doubt this lethal Collingwood side will take full advantage.  

For the Pies, Mihocek is a chance at returning to the forward ranks, not that they need any help on attack after booting 18 goals in two of their last three games.  

Side by side, Port has actually averaged slightly more inside 50 entries and scoring shots compared to the Pies, but Collingwood does hold a clear advantage when it comes to conversion.  

The battle through the midfield should be fascinating between the Daicos boys, Zak Butters, and Connor Rozee, but it still feels like the Pies might have a gear left to go.  

They don’t have much left to prove, but with the chance to pick up a big scalp on the road and prove there is a clear gap between 1st and 2nd, the Pies outright look the play.  

Tip: Back Collingwood to Win @ $1.80  

 

 

Two sides staking their claim for the title of ‘biggest disappointments’ meet on Saturday with their seasons virtually on the line.  

Sitting 15th and eight points adrift from the top eight, the Dockers basically have to win out and hope things go their way if they plan on returning to finals this year.  

The Swans, meanwhile, have come alive in recent weeks with a cheap win over West Coast and a hard-fought victory over the Dogs last week, leaving them in striking distance of a late season turnaround.  

Finding confidence in either team right now is incredibly difficult, the Swans ranked as one of the worst teams around the stoppages, and the Dockers struggling to find points on a consistent basis.  

On the personnel front, Fremantle gun midfielder Caleb Serong is back after serving a one-game suspension, but there’s still concern for Sean Darcy after missing last week’s blowout loss to the Pies with an ankle injury. 

Looking back, the Dockers prevailed by double digits when these two sides met at the SCG back in Round 9, Freo dominating the inside 50 count 61-44 and, not surprisingly, kicking 16 goals in the process.  

A repeat of that effort would be tough for the Swans to match, but given their inconsistencies, it’s hard to bank on the Dockers.  

Likewise, the Swans have managed a 3-5 mark away from home this year, while they’ve also averaged 13 goals to opponents on the road.  

Since this is basically a ‘line in the sand’ type game for both clubs, a high-scoring game could be on the cards. 

Tip: Over 167.5 Total Points @ $1.88 

 

 

The Giants head back to Canberra on Sunday with a renewed sense of hope and optimism sitting just outside the eight. 

It’s been a remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Adam Kingsley, the Giants stringing together five wins on the trot – two coming in upset fashion against the Dees, and most recently, the Adelaide Crows.  

Up next, the Gold Coast Suns, a side that shares equal finals aspirations after responding with a 26-point win over St Kilda last week in their first game without long-time coach, Stuart Dew.  

On their day, the Suns can be a handful for even the best sides, and if they can dominate the clearances like they did last week – something they’ve done well all year – they should push the Giants all the way.  

Like other games this week, this is another tough one to pick, and at first glance, the Giants might be a little short in the market.  

The Suns have coughed up some horrible performances away from this year, but they do match up well against a Giants team that has struggled around the clearances all year.  

Trends-wise, it’s worth noting the favourites has won 14 of the last 15 games between the pair, while GWS’s last three games have been decided by 15 points or less.  

Whether the Suns were good last week, or the Saints were just bad is a fair question, but with both sides playing for a chance to leapfrog their way up the ladder, there mightn’t be a great deal of separation on the scoreboard.  

Tip: Either Team to Win By Less Than 24.5 Points @ $1.85 

 

 

Three losses from their last five games has left the Crows sitting four points adrift from the eight, making this Sunday’s trip to the MCG a must-win if they hold any hope of making finals.  

The Crows have pulled off some big wins over the likes of Port and Brisbane this season, but this shapes as another serious litmus test against an in-form Demons outfit playing to cement their top four spot.  

Melbourne prevailed over Brisbane last Friday night in a back-and-forth arm wrestle, leaping out to a comfortable lead, falling behind by 30 points, and roaring back to life in the fourth term. 

It’s tough to know if that was a convincing performance or a troubling one, but as the old adage goes, good teams find a way to win games. 

On the plus side, Melbourne’s ruck woes are seemingly over with Max Gawn healthy and back to form, while Christian Petracca’s insertion up forward has paid huge dividends in recent weeks.  

The Crows have the firepower to match Melbourne, but with just one road win to their name against the Hawks in Tassie, it’s tough to trust them in the white shorts.  

It’s also fair to wonder if Matthew Nicks’ young side has simply run out of legs towards the back end of the year, and with the second Showdown looming next week against the Power, maybe their heads might be elsewhere.  

Tip: Back the Demons 1-39 @ $2.05 

 

 

Of the teams sitting inside the eight, St Kilda might be the most vulnerable and untrustworthy with six games of footy left to play.  

The Saints’ free-fall continued last week with a 26-point loss on the Gold Coast, and a deeper look at the stats suggests the Saints still have a few glaring issues to correct if they are to stand any chance at winning a final.  

Not only did Ross Lyon’s men cough the ball up an absurd number of times, but the Saints were also smashed in the clearances 41-26, made worse by the fact they simply couldn’t find the goals in their limited number of opportunities in the forward half.  

Converting in front of the sticks has been a big problem for the Saints of late, but fortunately, whoever plays North Melbourne tends to be in for a fill-up at the moment. 

The Roos gave up 28 scoring shots in last week’s 48-point defeat to Hawthorn, meaning even with Max King missing, the likes of Cooper Sharman, Dan Butler, and Mattaes Phillipou should see enjoy their share of the goals.  

Tip: Back the Saints to Win & Under 162.5 Total Points @ $2.25 

 

2022

We’ve officially entered the pointy end of the AFL season with five weekends of footy remaining.

There’s another finals-like feel to Round 19, starting on Friday night when the desperate Tigers host Fremantle in a key top-eight clash from Marvel.

Saturday is headlined by a pivotal Q-Clash between the Lions and the Suns, right before the Dogs and Dees meet in a Grand Final rematch under lights.

On Sunday, another chapter will be written in the famous Collingwood vs Essendon rivalry, followed by a key game for the Saints as they hope to keep their season alive over in Perth.

We’ve run through all the numbers and offer our best bets below.

The pressure cooker has been turned up a notch at Tigerland.

Last week’s shocking loss to the bottom-feeding Kangaroos has cast several doubts over Richmond’s finals chances, but there’s still plenty of time to make amends, starting with a convincing win over Fremantle on Friday night.

Likewise, the Dockers have just as much to prove on the back of their own disappointing loss to the Swans.

Fremantle kicked themselves out of the game after leading convincingly at half-time, and there are now concerns on the personnel front with Rory Lobb suffering a shoulder injury.

The Tigers have some injury concerns to monitor themselves with Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch’s status still up in the air, while there may be much bigger problems happening off the field with Damien Hardwick’s side lacking effort and discipline in the first half last week.

Fans may remember these two sides meeting around the same time last year, a game Freo won by four points in a low-scoring thriller.

The Tigers had won the previous four meetings up until that point, but after failing to punish the Suns and the Roos on the scoreboard in back-to-back weeks, it’s hard to feel confident in Richmond – especially with four straight losses at Marvel now to their name.

On the flip side, Freo has been an excellent bounce-back bet over the last calendar year, playing to a 6-2 record overall and a 5-3 mark at the line.

Given their defensive efficiency and the fact they held the Tigers to 51 points when they last met, Freo looks good value in early betting.

Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Roos captured the hearts of footy fans all over the country last week with a stirring win over Richmond.

In their first game following the sacking of David Noble, North leapt to a comfortable 32-point lead over the Tigers at half-time, eventually walking away four-point victors thanks to a huge six-goal bag from Cameron Zurhaar.

A win like that can do wonders for a club, especially one that has been lacking any real sense of identity, purpose, or confidence for the entirety of the season.

Meanwhile, at Hawthorn, things are still looking up.

The Hawks rattled off back-to-back wins for the second time this season with a late victory over West Coast, one that also featured their own six-goal bag from superstar small forward, Luke Breust.

Hawthorn first-year coach Sam Mitchell already knows a thing or two about North, having defeated the Kangas by 20-points at the ‘G back in Round 1.

The Hawks’ tackling and work around the clearances was far superior that day, while they also made North pay down back with tall forwards Jack Gunston and Mitch Lewis enjoying three goals each.

A lot has changed since then though, particularly on the defensive front.

The Hawks have been known to start fast and give up large chunks of points in the second half, as we saw last week when the Eagles came roaring back home to make a game of it in the fourth quarter.

The Tassie factor also has to be taken into account this week, especially after North picked up a memorable seven-point win at UTAS last season.

On wins and losses, the Hawks are probably the safer bet, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Roos have not only beaten Richmond, but also lost by seven points to Collingwood a week earlier.

North has covered in four of its last five games as a home underdog against the Hawks, so if they can get their tails up early, the Roos might just make the race for the wooden spoon even more interesting.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+19.5 Points) @ $1.90

There’s still five weeks of footy left to play out, but the Swans could take one giant step towards locking up a finals spot this week.

A 17-point scalp over Fremantle was exactly what the doctor ordered last Saturday, a game the Swans had no business winning after kicking 16 behinds and trailing by a big margin at half time.

Sydney has a chance to improve on that performance even further this week, but coach John Longmire will be expressing the importance of not underestimating a plucky Crows outfit that nearly knocked off Collingwood in wet and slippery conditions.

The Crows were arguably the better team for three quarters at Adelaide Oval, matching Collingwood’s late pressure and intensity, only to fall short by five points.

Adelaide has a good recent record at the SCG having won two of its last three visits, but this does stack up as a huge challenge for a team that has struggled to score since the early parts of the season.

The Swans have had their own scoring woes, but defensively, they’ve been one of the better teams in the competition holding opponents to the fifth-fewest goals.

It’s worth noting Tex Walker kicked six goals on the Swans when these two sides met in Round 2 last year, but the Swans still prevailed by 33 points on the back of some brilliance from Buddy Franklin and Isaac Heeney.

Considered one of the more in-form teams over the last month, the Swans should be adding to their winning record, but given the rain expected in Sydney over the coming days, it could turn out to be closer than the bookies expect.

Tip: Back the Swans 1-39 @ $2.05

The stage is set for an intriguing clash at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night between the Power and Cats.

Port’s season is very much alive despite last week’s loss to Melbourne, but Ken Hinkley’s men can’t afford another slip-up with the Saints, Dogs, and Tigers still four points ahead on the ladder.

The Cats remain on top after punishing Carlton last week by a convincing 30-point margin, but the sight of the Adelaide Oval might bring back some bad memories after losing last year’s Qualifying Final to Port by a dismal 43 points last year.

On the plus side, the Cats did enact some revenge in Round 10 with a comfortable double-digit victory back at the Cattery, a game that featured three goals each from Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle, as well as a monster 38 disposals from superstar midfielder, Cam Guthrie.

The Power are always a tough out at home, but statistically, the Cats look to hold a clear advantage in most areas.

Geelong is averaging nearly six more scoring shots a game compared to Port, while they’ve also been a much higher scoring outfit, and a much more efficient team when it comes to limiting turnovers.

Anyone that’s watched Geelong over the last fortnight will have noticed how crisp the their ball movement has been, and although the Power have enough talent through the midfield to combat, it’s hard to see them shutting down the Cats down for four quarters.

If last week’s loss to the Dees was anything to go by, this looks to be the final dagger in Port’s season.

Tip: Back the Cats to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90

A big crowd is expected at the Gabba on Saturday night for one of the most highly anticipated Q-Clash games in history.

There were a few nervy moments in the first half, but the Lions kept their top-four chances intact last week with a percentage boosting, 40-point win over the Giants in Canberra.

Things weren’t so golden for the Suns however, a disappointing 48-point loss at Marvel to the Bombers coming as a huge letdown for a team that knocked off Richmond on the siren only a week earlier.

That result makes this a must-win game for coach Stewart Dew, but one look at the odds, and recent history, suggests it’s far from a guarantee.

The Suns have opened +21.5 point outsiders at the line, largely due to the fact they’ve lost seven straight Q-Clash’s dating back to 2018.

The Lions prevailed by 52 points when these two sides met at Metricon back in April as Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey combined for 10 goals, alongside a handy 30 disposal game from Jarryd Lyons.

Brisbane has hardly been convincing over this last month, but it was encouraging to see the Lions dominate the clearances last week, while coach Chris Fagan admitted he probably should have included Rhys Mathieson in the side much sooner.

It feels as though the Lions have rediscovered some of their grit with Mathieson and Mitch Robinson back in the side, and although the Suns feature a dangerous and largely underrated forward line, their inability to play a full four quarters will likely be their downfall again.

Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-21.5 Points) @ $1.90

A Grand Final rematch is in order on Saturday with both sides in relatively strong form.

The Dogs sit a game outside the eight on the heels of Richmond, and although last week’s big win over St Kilda was encouraging, things aren’t about to get any easier with the Cats and Dockers ahead following this week’s clash at Marvel.

The Dees have also steadied after a midseason lull with three wins from their last four games.

Melbourne outmuscled Port in Alice Springs to the tune of 14 points, largely thanks to a memorable six-goal bag from promising young forward, Kozzie Pickett.

The Dees famously won last year’s Grand Final over the Dogs with a mesmerizing second-half, while they also punished them in their most recent meeting kicking 14 goals in a comfortable Round 1 win.

As far as betting goes, this does look to be a very generous line.

It’s one thing to punish an out of sorts St Kilda team, but it’s hard to forget the Bulldogs’ goal-kicking woes against the Swans and Brisbane in previous weeks, alongside their recent 0-5 record as the line underdog.

Melbourne hasn’t been setting the world on fire, but the Dees have remain the toughest team to score against in the competition.

With top spot on the ladder still up for grabs, this might be the night Simon Goodwin’s side makes a statement.

Tip: Back the Demons to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Blues have been an excellent bounce-back bet in recent times, and they have a real chance to add to their 7-2 record on Sunday against the hapless Giants.

Carlton failed its litmus test last week against the Cats, but there was plenty the Blues could take away as they look to keep their finals hopes alive.

The Giants walked away big winners over Hawthorn three weeks ago, but they’ve since turned in two rather flat performances against Port and Brisbane since.

Despite Toby Greene’s best efforts, finding the scoresheet has been a huge problem for GWS since the departure of Leon Cameron, and it’s hard to see that not being a problem again this week against a Blues outfit that has averaged only 11 goals against.

Also working in Carlton’s favour is the fact they already own a comfortable 40-point win over the Giants back in Round 9.

Michael Voss’s side kicked five goals in the first quarter in what turned out to be a memorable game for Sam Walsh.

Looking at the market, the Blues look a great bet to win this one comfortably.

They responded to their loss to Richmond last month with a 31-point win over Fremantle the next week, and then followed a similar script a fortnight ago by beating West Coast by 63 points in Perth.

With the Giants struggling against Brisbane’s potent forward line last week, this shapes as another long afternoon for the visitors.

Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (-24.5 Points) @ $2.00

Providing further frustration for their supporters, the Bombers have suddenly come good during the late part of the season to record three straight wins over West Coast, Brisbane, and the Gold Coast.

Essendon’s pressure and work down back has been immense over the last month, setting up a dream matchup on Sunday against archrivals Collingwood at the MCG.

The Dons would like nothing more than to get some revenge for their 11-point ANZAC Day loss, while they’ll also relish an opportunity to make life tough for the Pies as far as the top eight is concerned.

On the flip side, Collingwood can feel confident about this game knowing they’ve won eight in a row.

Recent wins over GWS, the Suns, North, and the Crows haven’t been pretty, but there’s been plenty to like about the Pies’ tackling and fourth quarter resolve as they look to punch a ticket to the finals.

The market suggests this should be another close one, but the Pies feel like a good value bet at the current quote.

Tackling wise, Collingwood has been vastly superior in comparison to Essendon, and we’re yet to see any team come up with an answer to first-year superstar and Rising Star shoo-in, Nick Daicos.

Wins against a depleted Brisbane side and a Suns outfit that basically failed to turn up have been nice, but this feels like a reality check waiting to happen for the Bombers.

Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15

The Saints are still a mathematical chance at making the eight, but they’ll need a lot to go right from here.

It all starts by winning this week in Perth, which looks far from a guarantee given how feisty the Eagles have looked over their last few games.

West Coast has now lost three straight since knocking off Essendon a month ago, but they did play a spirited first half against the Tigers prior to last week’s late fourth quarter push against the Hawks.

Whether that stacks up to a win is up for debate, but it’s hard to feel confident in what the Saints are offering up right now.

After some promise back in May when beating Geelong, the Crows, and North in succession, the Saints have since won only one of their last six games, largely due to some very slow starts and inability to make an impact on the score sheet.

The market is rightfully in favour of Brett Ratten’s side, but this still shapes as a tough road trip for a team that hasn’t defeated the Eagles in Perth since 2010.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (+18.5 Points) @ $2.00

2021

The AFL has managed to piece together another round of football amidst the ongoing situation unfolding around the country.

Round 19 kicks off on Friday with Port taking on Collingwood at Marvel, followed by the second edition of the Q-Clash and a blockbuster between the Dees and the Dogs on Saturday.

The Swans and the Dockers square off at Metricon in an important game on Sunday, while there should be plenty of feeling between Geelong and Richmond in a rematch of last year’s Grand Final.

Tipping is tough with so many teams changing location, but we’re confident we’ve found some winners in our 2021 AFL Round 19 Preview!

NOTE: All of these tips were written on the information available at the time of publish however with just about every fixture being a fluid situation the conditions may have changed by first bounce.

Given the unpredictable nature of the schedule it also warrants repeating this disclaimer from the markets: In the event that the venue is changed, all bets will stand unless the venue is changed to the opponents home ground.

Port reclaimed their spot inside the top four last week with a strong win over St Kilda as they now look to cement their place with a win over Collingwood on Friday night.

The Power came from two goals down to snatch a one-point win right at the death over the Pies when they met earlier in May, a game both teams have likely spent the week reflecting on.

Unfortunately, a similar story unfolded last week as the Pies blew a two-goal half-time lead in a disappointing loss to Carlton.

To make matters worse, the Pies also suffered some major casualties with Callum Brown, Brody Mihocek and Will Hoskin-Elliott all suffering injuries – three key outs that obviously make this road trip very tough against one of the healthiest teams in the competition.

It’s fair to say the jury is still out on Port as far as the flag is concerned, but this does look a nice game for them to make up ground against a wounded opponent.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-32.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Blues should step out at Mavel with a renewed sense of urgency after keeping their finals hopes alive with a win over Collingwood last week.

David Teague’s side erased a two-goal deficit at half-time to win comfortably in the end, but they’ll need to improve on that performance if they hope to make it two wins on the trot against a gallant North side that has proven very feisty in recent weeks.

The Roos have nothing left to play for at this point, but they have been playing some decent footy of late with a win over West Coast sandwiched between two respectable losses to the Dogs and Essendon.

These two sides also played out a tight affair when they met last year – the Blues winning by only seven points to snap a five-game losing streak against North that extended back to 2015.

From a betting perspective, neither side has done enough to fill you with confidence, but North’s outstanding 11-6 record at the line this year does command some respect.

After trailing Collingwood last week, North can make this a contest if they start fast.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Lions were originally scheduled to play Hawthorn this week but will instead travel to the Gold Coast for the second Q-Clash of the season.

Brisbane annihilated the Suns by 73 points when they met back in April, but things have certainly taken a different turn in recent weeks to suggest the rematch might be a little closer.

A month ago, the Lions looked like the team to beat, but back-to-back double-digit losses to St Kilda and Richmond has cast some doubt over Chris Fagan’s side.

Last week’s loss to the Tigers largely boiled down to Brisbane’s back-line struggling to contain 300-gamer Jack Riewoldt, while the absence of Eric Hipwood was also felt up forward.

Fortunately, this does look a nice game for the Lions to get back on track against a team they’ve typically beat up on in recent times.

The Lions have won five straight over the Suns dating back to 2018 and have also proven a very profitable play at the line covering in four of their five games as the home favourite.

Brisbane should win this game, but you could also build a case for the Suns following a fairly encouraging month of footy.

Gold Coast suffered an honourable loss to the Dogs last week by only 11 points, snapping a two-game winning streak that featured victories over GWS and Richmond.

If Ben King and Ben Ainsworth are on, the Suns are a much better chance than the current line suggests, especially with Lachie Neale potentially missing due to a shoulder injury.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+28.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Eagles and the Saints could potentially trade places on the ladder following the outcome of Saturday’s clash.

West Coast managed to maintain their spot in the eight last week with a much-needed win over the Crows, and it is no surprise to find the Eagles as the short-priced favourites heading back home to Perth.

The Saints could also venture back into finals contention with a bounce-back win.

St Kilda’s three-game winning streak came to an end last week at the hands of Port, but Brett Ratten has to be impressed with the way his side fought back from a 20-point deficit to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

The Saints have been average on the road this year, but it’s fair to say West Coast’s recent form leaves them looking a little under the odds in the market – especially when you consider St Kilda owns a 20-point win over the Eagles earlier in April.

This game really is one of the toughest to pick, but the Saints represent good value as the away underdog at the line.

St Kilda has played to a very strong 7-3 mark in this scenario over the last 12 months, while they’ve also gone 8-5 on the back of a loss during the same time frame.

Unlike last week, if the Saints can find some accuracy in front of goal, they should be right in this.

Tip: Back St Kilda to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90

We should be in for a real treat if this game turns out anything like the Round 6 clash between Hawthorn and Adelaide.

After trailing by 32 points at three-quarter time, the Hawks went on to record a famous come-from-behind victory down in Tassie thanks to the heroics of Jacob Koschitzke.

Like Adelaide, the rest of Hawthorn’s season has been lost to injury, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be treated to an intriguing clash on Saturday with bragging rights on the line.

For the Crows, a win would bring a welcome end to a four-game losing streak, but their recent form suggests this will be a tough task against a Hawks outfit that rallied from the brink to draw with the Demons last week.

Hawthorn has been a very difficult team to get a read on throughout the year, but they have been a very profitable team as the away underdog covering in eight of their last 13 games on the road.

The Hawks have also covered in four of their last five games against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval, so there’s a bit to like about them here at goof value.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90

We turn our attention towards the top of the table on Saturday night for a mammoth game between first and second.

Despite last week’s disappointing draw against Hawthorn, the Dees still remain on top of the table as they look to make it a clean sweep over the Dogs.

Melbourne recorded a statement victory over Luke Beveridge’s side back in Round 11, which ironically came off the back of a one-point loss to the Crows the week prior.

The Dogs, on the other hand, come into this game with a point to prove after surviving a bit of a scare last week in an 11-point win over the Suns.

Points should come at a premium when you consider both teams rank bottom three in goals allowed this season, but it’s fair to say this game will be won and lost in the midfield, just like it was last time around.

The Dogs found no answer to Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver earlier in the year, while Max Gawn also dominated the hit-outs.

The recent form of these two clubs is in question, but after blowing a win last week, the Dees should be motivated to not only get back on track, but also extend their lead atop the table.

After a lackadaisical first quarter last week against the Suns, another slow start could prove very costly here for the Dogs.

Tip: Back Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.25

The stakes will be high at Metricon on Sunday with plenty of finals implications on the line.

The Swans are edging their way towards the top four with three straight wins over West Coast, the Dogs and the Giants under their belt, and they’ll also be out for some revenge on the Dockers after losing by only two points when they met in Perth back in May.

Freo, meanwhile, still find themselves among a backlog of teams vying for a spot in the eight.

The Dockers came undone last week against Geelong, but it’s hard to read too much into a game played at The Cattery in front of no fans.

The biggest challenge for Freo this week will be stopping Buddy Franklin, something they failed to do last time out with the superstar forward kicking a six-goal bag.

Buddy has been in red-hot form since then, which is obviously a worrying sign after the Dockers gave up seven combined goals to Tom Hawkins and Patrick Dangerfield last week.

Metricon has been a house of horrors for the Swans over the last two seasons, but their dominance up forward of late should pose some problems for a Fremantle side that has won only three games away from home this year.

Tip: Back the Swans 1-39 @ $1.98

The Tigers found their way back into the win column last week with a blowout victory over Brisbane, but they were also dealt a crushing blow with Dusty Martin suffering a season-ending kidney injury.

The loss has taken some of the shine off what would normally be a blockbuster game and also left Geelong as the short-priced favourites heading in.

Chris Scott’s side has been coasting over the last month with three wins on the trot over Essendon, Carlton and Fremantle, while they’ll also hold fond memories of the Tigers after recording a huge 63-point win when they met earlier in May.

The Tiges’ definitely have enough talent left on the park to keep this competitive, but it’s fair to say Dusty’s absence will be felt enormously when it comes to creating scoring chances and also linking up play through the midfield.

As for Geelong, the Cats have seemingly hit their stride with Dangerfield fit and Tom Hawkins making a late run for the Coleman.

Danger was on the sidelines when these two sides last met, and the Cats still managed to dominate in all the major statistical categories.

A win for Geelong could see them into the top two, and with the attack firing on all cylinders, the Cats are very tough to fade.

Tip: Back Geelong to Win & Over 154.5 Total Points @ $2.60

---

2019

There are plenty of big games in the AFL this weekend, but none bigger than the Friday night blockbuster between Richmond and Collingwood.

That game and a host of others this weekend will have a direct effect on the make-up of the top four and the top eight at the end of the season, so there is a huge amount to play for.

We have analysed all nine games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 AFL Round 19 preview can be found below.

This is a massive clash for both sides as they push towards securing a top four finish this season.

Richmond are hitting peak form at the right end of the year, recording four impressive victories on the trot since the bye round.

Tom Lynch has become Mr. Reliable inside the forward 50, registering three majors in each of those four fixtures.

The Tigers have a 13-4 head-to-head record on the back of a win and represent great value at the line in the same scenario with 10-7 record.

Collingwood are on the opposite trajectory to Richmond, slipping to their third defeat in their past four outings in an embarrassing performance against the injury ravished Giants last round.

The Pies do boast an edge over the Tigers in recent times winning both of the sides past two meetings, although it’s safe to say both teams look like completely different outfits since they last met at the G in round two.

The Tigers are going to be looking to make a huge statement to the rest of the AFL as they continue to climb the ladder two rungs at a time heading into September.

Richmond To Cover The Line (-9.5) @$1.90

Tom Lynch to Kick 3+ Goals

In terms of top eight implications this clash should be considered as the most pivotal of the round.
The Hawks fly into this round 19 matchup off the back of a three-game win streak which includes the scalps of competition leaders Geelong and top four contenders Collingwood.

Hawthorn hold an impressive record at the University of Tasmania Stadium, winning six from their last seven outings dating back to the beginning of last season.

The only side to boast a better winning percentage at UTAS during that time are the Brisbane Lions following their 98-65 upset last year.

A win for the Lions would see them breathing down Geelong’s neck in the race for minor Premiership honours while consolidating their position in the top four and pushing towards a home qualifying final.

Chris Fagan has had the wood over his former mentor Alistair Clackson winning their last three clashes comfortably.

Brisbane stroll into this contest off the back of a 5-1 head-to-head record and have represented enormous value over that stretch.

As an inductee into the Tasmania Football Hall of Fame, Chris Fagan is no stranger to the harsh conditions which inevitably await his side.

If the Lions are to be Premiership contenders, this season they will be required to stand up in these hostile environments.

Brisbane To Wiin By 1-39 @$2.40

All the pressure will be on the shoulder of the visitors in this game, a loss for Adelaide will drag them back into the pack of side vying for a finals birth.

Carlton have recorder four wins from their past six fixtures at a very lucrative net return from a betting perspective.

This run is even more impressive when you consider their two defeats were by margins under six points.

Alternatively, the Crow are three wins from their last six and only one from their last four which came against the AFL’s extra bye round in the Suns.

The Crows haven’t enjoyed travelling to the MCG in recent times, losing their three last outings at the ground by an average margin of 50 points.

Form suggests Carlton are every chance shake up the race for the eighth spot on the ladder with a surprise victory at the ‘G’ on Saturday and I’m happy to take the value at the line on this one.

Carlton To Cover The Line (+11.5) @ $1.83

Sitting two games and a fair chunk of percentage outside of the top eight, North Melbourne will enter this round with a do or die mantra as they tackle one of the Premiership favourites in West Coast.

The Roos can consider themselves hard done by over the past couple of rounds, narrowly going down to the two inform sides of the competition in Brisbane and Essendon.

Despite those loses Rhyce Shaw has Roos bouncing with five wins from their last eight. North Melbourne have a 9-3 record at the line during away games and represent outstanding value across this market especially as the underdog (6-2).

A win for West Coast should all but guarantee a top four finish while placing them in a commanding position to secure a home qualifying final.

Sporting a forward line dripping with talent it’s been the big Jack Darling who has led his side from the front, kicking 16 goals in his last four matches.

The Eagles have largely flown under the radar this season, accumulating nine wins from their last twelve outings without putting anyone to the sword with the exception of Freo in the Derby.

Adam Simpsons side is 6-6 against the line as home favourite at a negative net value.

North Melbourne To Cover The Line (+18.5) @ $1.90
Jack Darling to Kick 3+ Goals

With coach sackings the flavour of the month, Simon Goodwin could find himself under immense pressure if his side fail fire against the Saints.

Both the Demons and Saints have represented horrible value form a betting perspective in the 2019 AFL season.

The Saints will be out to build on their flawless one-from-one record under caretaker coach Brett Ratten after they effectively ended the Bulldogs hopes for finals footy last round.

St Kilda claim a notable 5-2 record over the Dees as underdogs returning extraordinary value for the punters
Melbourne have a surprising 3-0 record as the away favourite over the past 12 months although those numbers signify little return on a betting perspective.

The Saints have a renewed lease on life, and I’m pleased to take them at the head-to-head price.

St Kilda to win @ $2.05

Look up the definition of inconsistency in the AFL dictionary and you’ll find the words ‘Port Adelaide’

Ken Hinkley’s side has had more off weeks than a FIFO worker, but when they do show up, they’re well worth the price of admission.

Port are 0-3 as an underdog against the Giants and don’t offer any more value at the line over the same trip.

The Giants hold 5-2 head-to-head record as the away favourite and have covered the line as the favourite in their last three meeting with Port.

GWS have been struggling with multiple injuries throughout the year but have managed to stay afloat.

This has been largely off the back of their elite forward line, with Jeremy Cameron, Harry Himmelberg, Jeremy Finlayson and Toby Greene all registering multi goals last time out.

GWS Giants (-4.5) To Cover The Line @$1.90

While both Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs are sitting just four point outside of eight it would take a mammoth effort to see either side playing September footy.

The Dogs have won four from their last six outings and have manufacturing huge value from a betting perspective.

The Dockers have been a boogie team for the Bulldogs winning a commanding nine of the sides last twelve meetings at a handy net profit for punters.

Rory Lobb was the difference last round against the Swans and Freo’s big man will prove a handful up front once again as Sandilands takes up the rucking duties.

Six of the last seven games between this pair have gone under 163 total points, under the pressure of a must will situation I can see this trend continuing on Sunday.

Rory Lobb to Kick 3+ Goals

Total Points Under (163.5) @ $1.90

Sydney may mathematically still a chance of playing football come September but that math is roughly slim to none.

The young Swans have shown ample fight over the past month but have struggled to build score board pressure only recording over 100 points in the last twelve outings.

Sydney have proved profitable for the punters at the line, covering the margin in eight of twelve games as the underdog.

Geelong raced to a record on 10-1 prior to the bye round and have struggled since losing three from their last five.

The Cats hold a perfect 3-0 over the Swans as favourites and provide further value for the punters off the back off a defeat with a 5-1 head-to-head record.

The Cats have the minor Premiership to protect and will be too strong for the courageous young Bloods.

Cats 1-39 @ $2.06
Total Points Under (148.5)

The age old saying “Save the best for last” need not be applied to round 19 of the AFL. The Inform side of the comp in Essendon travel north to take down the steadily declining Suns.

The Suns form line is long, red, and full of L’s, the Gold Coast side has zero wins from their last twelve fixtures and have provided the punters with a net loss across the line as well.

The Suns only success against the Dons came back in 2015/16 whiles Essendon were embroiled in their infamous drug saga.

The Dons are looking to secure their fifth win on the trot at Metricon on Sunday afternoon, with only Brisbane Lions rivalling their current form.

Essendon have provided the punters a clear profit in the head-to-head market during that run, although a little creativity might be required to find the value in this fixture.

Both the Dons pace off the halfback flank and ball use through the middle of the ground will threaten to turn this game into a Glitter Strip blood bath.

Essendon to win 60+
Jake Stringer to Kick 3+ Goals

---

2018

The race to the finals has become so tight, it’s almost impossible to predict what’s going to happen next.

The Top 4 remains unchanged, but after a pretty wild weekend, the lower half of the Top 8 is completely up for grabs.

Round 18 saw the unthinkable happen in more ways than one, and with back-to-back blockbusters to kick off Round 19, who knows what the ladder will look like next week.

So should you side with the favourite or the underdog?

As always, allow our 2018 Round 19 Preview to lead the way!

Everything will have to go right from here, but the Bombers are still a chance.

If Essendon really are to play finals, they’ll need to find that winning formula once again this week. The timing couldn’t be any better for the Dons with the Swans fresh off a disheartening loss to the Gold Coast Suns at home, and if Essendon can rely on the same five-goal production they saw last week from Orazio Fantasia, the Bombers could be well on their way towards September.

Sydney, well where to next?

Injuries have ravished this side, but there’s no excuse for last weeks disgrace. The Swans led by plenty during the first quarter, only to allow the Suns to kick six straight to lead at half time.

The loss was a far cry from the Swans’ resounding win over North Melbourne the week prior, but perhaps we can finally say all of these injuries have finally caught up with the bloods.

With Etihad Stadium playing host to Friday nights game, things don’t get any easier for the Swans. Sydney have been particularly strong down in Melbourne, but good luck stopping Fantasia and David Zaharakis this week.

After missing time with a groin injury, Fantasia has been dynamite, but there’s so many names really starting to live up to their potential in this Essendon line up. Six players finished with 20-disposals or more last week against Fremantle, and although the run home is extremely tough, the Bombers will still fancy themselves for finals.

The last time these two met, it was Sydney dumping the Bombers out of the elimination final at the SCG. That game was a completely one-sided, but if the Bombers can play clean, turnover-free footy, this one is theirs for the taking.

Tip: Back Essendon 1-39 @ $2.26

You’ve probably had this one marked on your calendar, and since their last encounter back in Round 6 turned out to be a thriller, who could blame you?

The Tigers ran away with a 113-70 victory back in April, but don’t let the scoreboard fool you, that game was a lot closer than it may have seemed.

Collingwood succumbed to Richmond’s usual pressure that day, but players like Adam Treloar and his 42-disposals were detrimental to the Pies’ winning hopes.

With Treloar still stuck on the sideline, the question now becomes, who can step up for the Pies?

After Jordan de Goey booted another four-goal bag against North Melbourne last week, scoring doesn’t look to be a problem for Collingwood, but the midfield just might. Last week’s 66-point win aside, the Magpies will need to find a way to limit Richmond through the middle of the field, and as Collingwood learned last time, if they don’t, the repercussions are very, very costly.

Trent Cotchin notched 29-disposals during Richmond’s last meeting with the Pies, while last week’s win over St. Kilda should only further worry Magpie supporters.

Dustin Martin finally found some form with 30-disposals and a goal of his own, and although the Magpies are a much stronger side than the Saints, Richmond’s pressure around the ball is still a step above everybody else.

In front of what should be close to 80,000, this one should belong to the yellow and back.

Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.90

Normally a win is a good thing, and while Geelong would be happy with the points, the fact last weekend’s win over Melbourne still sees the Cats out of the eight has to sting.

Two straight home games are nice though, and if Chris Scott’s side can notch a win over the Lions this week, the Cats should be in prime position for finals.

The Lions were unlucky not to make it four straight wins last week against the Crows, but lazy goal-kicking ultimately cost Brisbane in the end. Overall it was another gallant effort from this young side, and with so many signs of promise, you can’t write off an upset chance this week.

The last time Brisbane met Geelong at Simonds Stadium, they were handed a 125-56 defeat. The Lions last pulled off a win in Geelong way back in 2003, but as we saw two weeks ago against the Hawks, this dangerous Brisbane side are more than capable of winning away from home.

If the Lions really are to make something of this game, they will need to win the midfield battle. Gary Ablett once again rewound the clock last week to finish with 31- disposals, so it’s going to take the class of Dayne Zorko and Dayne Beams to really push the Lions over the line.

Unfortunately, this young Lions outfit are still prone to the odd turnover or two, and if they don’t make the most of their opportunities, they may suffer the same humiliation as the Demons last week.

This game certainly shouldn’t come down to a kick at the siren, but expect the Lions to be in the contest. Whether or not they can withstand Geelong’s savage momentum surges is the real question.

Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.24

Go ahead and say it, the Giants are the real deal.

Two straight wins, one against the reigning premiers and one against the Power, has GWS riding high with just over a month left in the season.

After so many injuries and Jeremy Cameron’s suspension, no one expected the Giants to be competitive, let alone sitting sixth on the ladder, but here we are, and things are about to get even better.

St. Kilda were miserable last week against the Tigers, kicking just two goals to Richmond’s 11 in the first half. It was a tough night for St. Kilda’s forward line, who saw just 42 inside fifties come their way, and after GWS completely shut down the Power last weekend, the scoring opportunities may be far and few for the Saints for the second week in a row.

To make matters worse, Spotless Stadium isn’t a ground the Saints are all too familiar with. Last time St. Kilda traveled to GWS they lost by 35-points, but that was way back in 2015.

The Giants are up and about right now, and on the back of a season defining win on the road, it’s hard to see GWS losing here at home.

Back GWS Giants 40+ @ $2.38

How can this get any worse?

For Carlton that is.

You could hardly call last week’s game against Hawthorn an “effort”, as the Blues were completely lost for all four quarters of the game. The Hawks racked up 58 inside fifties and a whopping 420 disposals in their percentage boosting win, and to make matters even worse, Carlton now carry on without the injured Zac Fisher.

It’s been a grim season for the Suns, but last week’s win in Sydney snapped Gold Coast’s 11 game losing streak. It was a game the Suns had no business winning over the Swans, but it was great to see Aaron Young and Alex Sexton combine for seven goals in the victory.

What we’re left with now is hardly a blockbuster, but these kind of bottom dweller affairs normally turn out to be quite fun. Just a month on from the Suns’ disappointment against St. Kilda, another game they should have won, it’s safe to say Gold Coast won’t be taken Carlton lightly this weekend.

In terms of a tip, it’s so hard to build a case for Carlton. Simple tasks like manning up, handballing and tagging seem close to impossible for the Blues right now, as this side is far from resembling an AFL caliber team.

The Suns will look to make the most of this game, and if they can find the same kind of performance out of defenders Rory Thompson and Steven May, there’s no reason Gold Coast can’t make this two wins on trot.

Back Gold Coast Suns to Beat The Line (-20.5 Points) @ $1.90

There’s still a lot that has to happen, but Adelaide’s win over Brisbane moved the Crows one step closer to possibly playing finals footy this year.

While the Crows got back to winning ways though, the same old (pardon the pun) demons haunted Melbourne once again last week. The Dees looked well on their way to a season defining win down in Geelong, but a last second surge of momentum cost Melbourne the points and a whole bunch of confidence.

Now, it’s another road trip, this time to Adelaide Oval, a ground the Demons have also felt their fair share of disappointment on this season. Round 14’s loss to Port Adelaide earlier in June caused further heartbreak to this already tortured fan base, but fortunately for Dees fans, history has their back.

Melbourne’s last visit to face ‘the pride’ down south resulted in a 107-66 victory. Fast forward to May, the Demons also held the Crows’ number – winning 146-55 in Alice Springs.

It’s fair to say that these two teams don’t match up very well. Melbourne has had no trouble moving the footy around against the Crows recently, evident in Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver’s 30+ disposal game last time these two teams met.

The Crows might have earned the points last weekend up in Brisbane, but they were hardly convincing. It wasn’t so much a case of Adelaide winning the game, it was a case of the Lions losing it, and since the Crows continue to struggle to get the job done, the Demons are a great upset bet.

Back Melbourne To Win @ $2.12

North’s finals hopes aren’t over just yet, but West Coast might hold the final nail to jab in the Kangaroos’ coffin.

Last week was a tale of two cities. North Melbourne’s encounter against Collingwood shaped up as can’t-miss, only for it turn into a 66-point bloodbath come the final siren.

West Coast’s season marched on without the injured Nic Naitanui, but you wouldn’t know the Eagles were missing one of their superstars. A 54-point home win kept the four-point buffer between Adam Simpson’s side and the third placed Pies, and with a fairly comfortable run home, West Coast could finish the season top two.

While all that is well and good, what does this week hold, though?

North’s two biggest problems right now are midfield pressure and goal accuracy. The Roos had 19 scoring shots last week, but kicked 10 behinds. Oh, and as the 84-47 tackle count suggests, North also failed to withstand Collingwood’s midfield pressure.

West Coast may be without one of their biggest names, but they are still one of the most ferocious teams around the ball. Couple that with the fact the Eagles have become quite the well-traveled team this year, and all of a sudden you’re staring at a West Coast win.

Back West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $2.26

By this point in the season, it’s safe to say the Dogs probably just want the games to end.

Fortunately for the Bulldogs, this is a very winnable game at Mars Stadium, and as Port’s four wins in interstate games suggests, the Power are far from a guaranteed certainty away from home.

The last two contests have hardly been close, including Round 13’s 57-point win to the Power, but the Dogs know Port are on the ropes right now, and if they can just find a way to win plenty of the ball and control the likes of Ollie Wines and Chad Wingard, the Bulldogs will have a chance.

Much of the problem for the Power last week was ball use. It’s a rare issue for a team that has become one of the most efficient teams by foot, but the Giants’ defensive pressure completely rattled Port at home, and as we’ve seen during times this season, when the Dogs want to, they can really put teams under the pump.

One of the biggest keys to success for the Westerners will be Jason Johannisen. When the roving halfback is given space and placed in a more attacking midfield role, he’s a dangerous threat, one capable of setting up forwards like Luke Dahlhaus for a shot at goal.

If the Dogs can forget about last week’s painful disappointment on the road and try to salvage something from this lost season, they’re a chance here in Ballarat.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.95

After a fortnight of disappointment, something finally went the way of Hawthorn last week.

A percentage boosting win against the hapless Blues sees the Hawks back up into the eight, and with a fairly cruisy run home, these are the games Hawthorn need to win if they have any hope of contesting in the finals.

It was nice to see Jarryd Roughead return to form last week, but there’s no looking past Paul Puopolo’s four goal, 22-disposal effort. Sure, it came against a B-grade Carlton defence, but this was by far the best lineup Alastair Clarkson has constructed since his side was struck with injuries.

Fremantle, on the other hand, weren’t quite so lucky. The rollercoaster season continued for the Dockers, falling by 29-points against the Bombers. Freo were always going to find it hard to win in Melbourne, but with home field advantage ahead this week, the Dockers are quite an enticing bet.

Hawthorn are one of the few remaining clubs yet to travel to Optus Stadium this year, but trips to Perth are far from a daunting task for the Hawks.

Dating back to 2011, Fremantle have won three of their last four trips to Western Australia, with most games hardly turning out to be much of a contest.

This current day Hawthorn side is an unpredictable one, but this 2013 Grand Final rematch should suit the Hawks nicely. Even with Shaun Burgoyne still on the sidelines, Hawthorn’s precise kicking and long list of goal scorers should get the job done.

Back Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.05

2017

Adelaide are now six points clear at the top of the AFL Ladder, but there are only ten points between Geelong in second and St Kilda in 11th!

The closeness of the competition means that just about every game for the remainder of the season is absolutely vital and that ensures that there are plenty of opportunities.

We have closely analysed every game in the AFL this weekend and our complete 2017 AFL tips for round 19 can be found below.

This should be another fascinating installment of what has been the biggest rivalry in the AFL in recent seasons.

Sydney made it seven wins on the trot with their professional performance over St Kilda and incredibly they are now on the second line of AFL Premiership betting.

The Swans have won seven of their past eight games as away favourites and they are an impressive 6-2 against the line in this scenario.

Hawthorn kept themselves in finals contention with a big win over Fremantle, but they are going to need to keep winning to have any chance of finishing in the top eight.

The Hawks did beat Sydney earlier this season, but there is no doubt that Sydney have gone to another level in the second half of the season and Hawthorn lack the upside of their great rivals.

Sydney can continue on their winning way and cover the line in the process.

Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-14.5 Points)

Melbourne have somewhat solidified their place in the top eight, but they need to keep winning games like this one to return to the AFL Finals.

The Demons have struggled against North Melbourne in recent seasons and they may never get a better chance to end their losing streak against the Kangaroos.

Melbourne have won two of their past three games as away favourites, but they are only 1-2 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne have lost seven games on the trot and they are definitely a team that is already looking towards 2018.

The Kangaroos have won only one of their past seven games as home underdogs for a clear loss and they are 3-4 against the line in this situation.

This is a clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.

No Bet

It has been over a month since Greater Western Sydney won a game, but they will still go into this clash with Fremantle as clear favourites.

The Giants suffered their second defeat on the trot with a very lacklustre effort against Richmond and there is no doubt that the one-time premiership favourites are now at a serious crossroads.

Greater Western Sydney have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites, but they are only 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Hawthorn last weekend and they have now lost seven of their past eight games.

The Dockers have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are only a middling 4-4 against the line.

It is tough to have any faith in either of these two teams based on their recent efforts and this is a clash that I will not be getting involved in.

No Bet

This is another huge game on a weekend that is packed full of them.

Port Adelaide were poor against Melbourne last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.

The Power have won five of their past eight games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda looked set to begin a big charge to the AFL Finals when they were dominant against Richmond, but they have since produced two extremely poor performances against Essendon and Sydney.

The Saints have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario is not much better.

The betting market that stands out in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting.

Four of the past five Port Adelaide games at the Adelaide Oval have resulted in the Under and it does look another lovely play in this clash.

Back Under 160.5 Points

Richmond are on a high after beating Greater Western Sydney last weekend and they will start this clash with the Gold Coast Suns as clear favourites.

The Suns have been a bogey team for Richmond in the past, but Richmond have won the past two games played between these two sides and really should be able to make it two wins on the trot.

Richmond have been a profitable betting play as away favourites this season and they are 8-3 against the line on the back of a win.

Gold Coast slumped to their third straight defeat when they went down to the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they are left with very little to play for.

The Suns have won three of their past seven games as home underdogs for a big profit and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

This does look like something of a danger game for Richmond, but there is no real value in betting.

No Bet

Geelong lost to Adelaide last weekend, but the market is confident that they can return to winning form against Carlton this weekend.

The Cats suffered a shock loss at the hands of Carlton the last time that these two teams did battle and it would not surprise if the Blues gave them another scare.

Geelong have won six of their past nine games as away favourites for a narrow loss, but they are a profitable 5-4 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton suffered their fifth loss on the trot when they went down to the Brisbane Lions last weekend and surprisingly it was their defensive structures that let them down in that clash.

The Blues have won four of their past 11 games as home underdogs for a very big profit and they are 7-4 against the line in this situation.

Carlton are a better team than their performance against the Lions suggests and they are capable of covering the line with the big start of 28.5 points.

Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+28.5 Points)

Essendon currently sit inside the top eight, but that could change completely if they don’t beat the Western Bulldogs in this Sunday afternoon blockbuster.

The Western Bulldogs made it two wins on the trot when they beat the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but the Western Bulldogs definitely represent a much tougher challenge.

They will go into this clash as underdogs and this is a position in which the Bulldogs have actually thrived over the past 12 months – they have won five of their past nine games when not fancied by the market for a big profit.

Essendon moved into the top eight with their win over North Melbourne and they do look to be a side that is finding form at the right stage of this season.

However, they do face a much tougher assignment against the Western Bulldogs and they have been a side that have struggled somewhat as favourites this season.

The Western Bulldogs have won the past two games played between these two sides and they can extend that winning streak this weekend.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2

The Adelaide Crows are now dominant favourites to win the minor premiership and can maintain their lead at the top of the ladder with a win over Collingwood on Sunday.

Adelaide were excellent against Geelong last weekend and they continue to be the most impressive side in the AFL this season.

The Crows have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

A fighting victory over the West Coast Eagles was soured somewhat by the resignation of Collingwood CEO Gary Pert earlier in the week, but the Magpies have often produced their best performances this season in the midst of off-field turmoil.

The Magpies have lost their only two games as home underdogs this season and they have lost four games on the trot at the hands of Adelaide.

This is a game that Adelaide really should be able to win comfortably and they can cover the line of 20.5 points in the process.

Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-20.5 Points)

The West Coast Eagles have recorded some big wins over the Brisbane Lions in recent years and they go into this clash as the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend.

West Coast really threw away the win against Collingwood last weekend and stringing together back-to-back wins has been a big problem, but they are 7-2 against the line on the back of a win.

However, they have won only five of their past nine games as home favourites and they are 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

Brisbane produced one of their best performances of the season to record a big win over Carlton but they will go into this clash with the West Coast Eagles as clear underdogs.

The Lions have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are an impressive 8-3 against the line in this scenario.

There is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Lions are a great bet to cover the line with the big start.

Back Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+47.5 Points)

---

2016

There is now only a month left in the 2016 AFL regular season and there are a number of key games this weekend.

The round starts on Friday night when Geelong host the Western Bulldogs at Simonds Stadium before Collingwood take on the West Coast Eagles in the pick of Saturday’s games.

The match of the round might not be until Sunday afternoon when the Fremantle Dockers face Sydney Swans in what could prove a preview for the AFL Finals Series.

Geelong have won the last eight games played between these two sides and they are clear favourites to continue their dominance over their rivals this weekend.

Geelong made it two wins on the trot with a tough victory over Adelaide last weekend and they face another tough challenge against a Western Bulldogs side that is only clinging on to their top four chances.

The Cats have not been a consistent betting side this season and they are 7-10 against the line when giving away a start, while they are 1-2 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The Western Bulldogs went down to St Kilda last weekend and lost Mitch Wallis for the rest of the season in the process, but they are 6-1 on the back of a loss in the past 12 months and will fancy their chances of bouncing back this weekend.

They have won three out of their eight games this season as underdogs and are 4-4 against the line, but they have been impressive in their two games at the MCG this season.

There is definitely not as much between these two sides as the betting market suggests and I am more than happy to throw my support behind the Western Bulldogs with a start of 19.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (+19.5 Points)

The Greater Western Sydney Giants have never beaten Richmond, but they have an outstanding opportunity to do just that at Manuka Oval in Canberra this weekend.

The Giants moved into second position with their come from behind victory over Port Adelaide last weekend and they have now won five of their past six games.

Favoritism has not been a struggle for the Giants this season and they have won 11 out of their 15 games as the punter’s elect, while they are 9-6 against the line when giving away a start.

Richmond produced another stinker of a performance against Hawthorn on Sunday afternoon and they have shown time and time again this season that they are unable to match it with the very best teams in the competition.

This is backed up in their betting statistics – the Tigers have won just one of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.

The line of 40.5 points does seem a touch on the excessive side, but the Giants are 3-2 when giving away such a large start this season and their midfield could run rampant against an uninspired Richmond this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-40.5 Points)

Hawthorn have opened up an eight point lead on top of the AFL Ladder with their comfortable victory over Richmond  and they are dominant favourites to beat Carlton this weekend.

Hawthorn have now won eight games in a row, but they have still not been a profitable team from a betting perspective this season – they are 9-3 in head to head betting and just 3-9 against the line.

Carlton have lost six games in a row, but there has been plenty to like about their last two performances against West Coast and Sydney and they were arguably unlucky not to get the job done.

The Blues have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs this season, but they are a profitable 6-5 against the line in this situation and Hawthorn have covered just once in their three games this season giving away a start of 48 points or more.

Hawthorn should be able to continue their winning streak, but I expect this to be a closer game than the market expects and I am more than happy to back Carlton with a 48.5 point start.

Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+48.5 Points)

The West Coast Eagles have won five games in a row, but they have not been overly impressive in the past fortnight and they are only narrow favourites.

The Eagles were particularly poor against the Melbourne Demons last weekend and they were extremely lucky to walk away with the four points.

It is no secret that West Coast have struggled as away favourites this season and they have won just three of their six games in this situation, while they are 1-5 against the line.

Collingwood were very poor in the first half against North Melbourne last weekend and they continue to be a tough team to trust from a betting perspective this season.

The Magpies have won two of their past six games as home underdogs for a narrow profit, but they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario and their record against West Coast in recent years is poor.

The market looks to have got this game just about right and I can’t find any value in the current prices on offer.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Brisbane Lions recorded a shock victory over Port Adelaide in their only meeting last year and they have not lost to the Power at The Gabba since 2007, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.

The Lions finally ended their losing streak with a victory over Essendon last Sunday afternoon, but they obviously face a much tougher opposition this weekend.

Brisbane have won two of their past nine games as home underdogs for a narrow loss, while they are also a non-profitable 4-5 against the line in this situation.

Port Adelaide missed out on a golden opportunity to improve their chances of playing finals football when they went down to Greater Western Sydney last weekend, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

The Power have really struggled as away favourites in the past 12 months and they are 3-3 in both head to head betting as well as against the line.

These are two sides that are vert tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another game that I am happy to let go through to the keeper.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

North Melbourne finally ended their losing streak with a tough victory over Collingwood last weekend and they are favourites to make it two wins on the trot against St Kilda.

While North Melbourne have frustrated their fans in recent weeks, they have still proven to be a profitable team from a betting standpoint and they have won 15 of their past 17 games as favourites, while they are 11-6 against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda scored an upset victory over the Western Bulldogs last weekend to make it three wins on the trot and they have now won five of their past six games.

This is a rare run of consistency for St Kilda, but they continue to be a tough side to catch as a betting proposition – they have won six of their past 20 games as underdogs for a narrow profit, but they are only 10-10 against the line in this scenario.

I am confident that North Melbourne will find a semblance of their best form as we head into the AFL Finals and they are great bet to cover the line when they give away a start of only 9.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)

The Gold Coast Suns have won three out of their past four games, but it is still Melbourne that will start this contest as clear favourites.

Melbourne have won just one of their past five games and they have been very frustrating for their fans in recent weeks as they had opportunities to beat both St Kilda and West Coast.

The Demons have been able to improve their record as favourites this season and they have won three of their past four games as home favourites, while they have an identical record against the line.

Gold Coast have finally started to play some decent football in recent weeks and they produced an uncharacteristically professional performance against Fremantle last weekend.

While the Gold Coast continue to win games that they are expected to, their record as underdogs is extremely poor.

They have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

The pressure is on Melbourne to return to winning form this weekend, but I am confident they can get the job done and cover the line of 29.5 points in doing so.

Recommended Bet: Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-29.5 Points)

Sydney were definitely not at their best against Carlton last weekend, but they still came away with the four points and they are dominant favourites to make it two wins on the trot against Fremantle this weekend.

Sydney have not been able to string together back-to-back victories since they beat the Gold Coast Suns on June 4 and their record away from home is not overly impressive – they are 5-3 as away favourites in head to head betting and 4-4 against the line.

Fremantle made it four losses on the trot with a fairly lacklustre effort against the Gold Coast last weekend and it is very tough to have any real faith in them going forward.

The Dockers have not made Domain Stadium a fortress in the past 12 months and they have won just one of their past five games as home underdogs, while they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.

The Swans are definitely the team to beat in this clash, but there is no value at their current quote.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

This is the big mismatch of the weekend as the Adelaide Crows are dominant favourites to get the done against Essendon this weekend.

Adelaide had their losing streak ended by Geelong last weekend and poor kicking for goal coat them dearly again, but their record against teams they really should beat is unblemished and they have won five of their past six games as home favourites.

The line of 65.5 points is obviously very large and the biggest that the they have faced since 2012 and the favourite is 21-24 when giving away such a big start.

Essendon all but secured the wooden spoon with their loss to the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they are worth of being such short-priced favourites this weekend.

They have won just one of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a very big loss, while they are just 3-9 against the line in this scenario.

The Adelaide Crows are capable of putting up a big score this weekend – they average more points a game than any other team in the AFL this season – and they are capable of covering what it is a very large line.

Recommended Bet: Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-65.5 Points)