2020 AFL Round 22 Preview

West Coast Vs Collingwood

Friday August 14, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium

Western Bulldogs Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday August 15, 1:45pm, Mars Stadium (Ballarat)

Melbourne Vs Carlton

Saturday August 15, 1:45pm, MCG

GWS Giants Vs Fremantle

Saturday August 15, 4:35pm, Giants Stadium

Essendon Vs Sydney Swans

Saturday August 15, 7:25pm, marvel Stadium

Gold Coast Suns Vs Brisbane Lions

Saturday August 15, 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium

St Kilda Vs Geelong

Sunday August 16, 1:10pm, Marvel Stadium

Richmond Vs Hawthorn

Sunday August 16, 3:20pm, MCG

Adelaide Vs North Melbourne

Sunday August 16, 4:25pm, Adelaide Oval


2019

All eyes will be on the top four this week as the Lions and the Cats kick off a huge Round 22 of action from the Gabba.

Brisbane’s impressive winning streak is on the line as they look to down the AFL ladder leaders, while the stakes are also high on Sunday afternoon between Tigers and the reigning premiers from the ‘G.

The top eight is far from set, leaving the Bombers, Crows, Dogs, Power and Hawks all facing crucial win-now scenarios.

It’s safe to expect a handful of upsets this week, so be sure to read our complete 2019 AFL Round 22 Preview below.

Melbourne Vs Sydney Swans

Friday August 16, 7:50pm, MCG

It’s a bit of a Friday fizzer, but with both sides looking to end the season on a high note, this cellar-dweller clash could produce a few fireworks.

The Demons had their chances during last week’s 17-point loss to Collingwood, but the same old story – wayward goalkicking – cost the Dees a chance.

Things weren’t quite as clear cut for the Swans during their 47-point loss to the Power. Sydney fought hard in the first quarter but managed only three goals between half time and the final siren.

These two sides met back in Round 4 at the SCG, a game the Demons won comfortably by 22-points. Nathan Jones chipped in with three goals, helping the Dees race away in the final quarter.

Considering both sides are looking to snap lengthy losing streaks though, don’t be surprised if this one turns out close. The Swans and the Dees both rank Top 10 in goals and inside ‘50s allowed to opponents, so instead of backing a straight-up winner, stick with the Margin market.

Tip: Either Team to Win by Less than 15.5 Points @ $2.50

Carlton Vs St Kilda

Saturday August 17, 1:45pm, MCG

There might be nothing more than bragging rights on the line, but this is still a huge game for two sides looking towards the future.

St. Kilda open as the early favourites following last week’s thrilling three-point win over the Dockers. The Saints have won five straight over the Blues dating back to 2016, but in case you’ve missed it, the Blues are no easy beats with the season winding down.

Carlton has now lost two straight games, but there was plenty to take away from last week’s loss to the Tigers. Losing by only 28-points to a premiership favourite is a win in itself, especially after heading into halftime with only one goal to their name.

Despite their horror run against the Saints, there’s plenty of reasons to find confidence in the Blues this week. Surprisingly, Carlton ranks seventh in the competition in points for at the MCG, which could spell trouble against a Saints side allowing the third-most goals in the competition.

The Blues also hold a strong 7-4 record as the line underdog at home this year. It’s only slim, but considering you’re getting the same value at the line as you would head-to-head, it’s worth staying safe.

Tip: Carlton to Cover the Line (+1.5) @ $1.90

Brisbane Lions Vs Geelong

Saturday August 17, 2:10pm, The Gabba

Game of the round, and maybe even game of the season. This top of the table clash should tell us everything we need to know heading into the finals, and despite Geelong sitting on top, it’s the Lions who head into Saturday’s game as the home-field favourite.

The Gabba has become a fortress-like it was in the early 2000s as the Lions have lost only one game at home all year. Last week’s 91-point win over the Suns sent a message to the rest of the competition, and with an eight-game winning streak on the line, it’s certainly difficult to fade Chris Fagan’s side.

Geelong’s form since the bye has been questionable, but the Cats got back on track last week with a 55-point win over North at home. To their credit, the Cats also know how to handle the Lions at the Gabba having won four of their last five trips to Brisbane.

This one should boil down to the midfield, an area both sides continue to dominate. Accuracy in front of goal is also paramount as both sides rank top two in average goals this season.

The Gabba has been sold out for a week ahead of this clash, but we’ve seen Brisbane disappoint the home fans once already this year. Against Collingwood on Easter Thursday, a packed house at the Gabba watched the Lions lose by 62-points to the Pies.

It’s doubtful Brisbane loses by a wide margin on Saturday, but with expectations high, there’s every chance an experienced and mature Geelong side gets the better of them.

Tip: Geelong to Win @ $2.05

Adelaide Crows Vs Collingwood

Saturday August 17, 4:05pm, Adelaide Oval

Collingwood’s season received a shot in the arm last week as the Pies recorded a much-needed win over the Demons.

They’ll now travel to Adelaide to face the Crows on Saturday, a team that continues to flirt with the fringes of the top eight.

The Crows came up 10-points short to West Coast last week, but they certainly gave the reigning premiers a scare away from home.

Now, Adelaide looks to accomplish something they haven’t done since 2016: defeat Collingwood.

This game shapes up as a bit of a coin flip. On one hand, home-field advantage makes the Crows the rightful favourites, but with five home losses to their name at Adelaide Oval this year, anything goes.

Collingwood, on the other hand, remains a mystery. Two cheap wins over the Suns and Dees count for very little, especially this time of year. And with Adelaide pushing for a spot back inside the eight, you can expect the Crows to come out firing.

To their credit, the Pies do deserve the benefit of the doubt away from home. Collingwood is 3-1 outside of Melbourne this year, and with the Crows choosing to live dangerously by not tagging opposing teams’ star players, they might just pay a heavy price against what is still a very talented midfield.

Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Adelaide/Collingwood

North Melbourne Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday August 17, 7:25pm, Marvel Stadium

A 47-point win over the Swans last week was enough to ensure the Power a spot back inside the eight, but Ken Hinkley’s squad can’t afford to take their finger off the pulse with two rounds remaining.

North Melbourne managed only 14-points during their trip to The Cattery last week, a new all-time low for a club that had shown so much pose under new head coach Rhyce Shaw the week prior.

The Power will head to Marvel full of confidence knowing they’ve won five straight over North dating back to 2015. Even so, they need to take this game seriously knowing the Roos haven’t lost at home in close to two months.

It appears even the bookies aren’t convinced on Port right now, especially with a 5-5 record as the favourite over the last 12-months.

Likewise, North has been equally poor going 3-10 as the underdog during the same time frame.

The Power are yet to string together three straight wins this season, while North are 5-6 on the back of a previous loss.

With all that in mind, you’re best off avoiding this one.

Tip: No Bet

Fremantle Vs Essendon

Saturday August 17, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium

Essendon’s season has hit a big-time snag as the Bombers look to recover from a pair of disappointing losses.

The Dons have plenty of injury issues to overcome, but there was no excuse for last week’s mental lapse against the Bulldogs in what was supposed to be the biggest game of the round.

Another loss for the Bombers this week could put a line through their finals hopes, and although it would take a miracle, Fremantle still has their eye on replacing them inside the eight.

The last time Essendon defeated Fremantle in Perth was 2013, and since then, their most recent meetings have turned into relatively close affairs.

These two sides met back in Round 9, a game the Bombers won by seven-points at Marvel. While we’re talking trends though, it’s worth noting Fremantle’s last three home games against the Bombers have also gone Over the Total.

Tip: Over 154.5 Points @ $1.80

Richmond Vs West Coast Eagles

Sunday August 18, 1:10pm, MCG

The Tigers have now won seven on the trot as they prepare to host West Coast in a massive top four battle on Sunday afternoon.

Richmond’s 28-point win over the Blues got the job done last week, but you can expect Damien Hardwick to address his sides flat second-half effort that allowed the Blues to keep the scoreboard respectable.

West Coast survived a close shave against Adelaide at home last week to earn their fourth straight win in a row. The Eagles led at the end of each quarter but were demolished in the disposal count as the Crows had everything their own way through midfield.

The stakes this week are high in what could turn out to be a finals preview. A win for West Coast will see them into outright second on the ladder, while a Richmond victory would only further widen the gap between themselves and fifth-place Collingwood.

These two sides met during Round 9 last year, a game West Coast won by 47-points in Perth. On the flip side, the Eagles’ last win at the MCG over the Tigers came back in 2015.

The forward battle is key for either side on Sunday as both rank top five in average goals-per-game. Jack Darling has also been lethal against the Tigers slotting 13 goals in his last five games against Richmond.

From a trends perspective, West Coast is 3-2 as the underdog against the line this season – compared to Richmond, who are 1-1 as the home favourite against West Coast.

Ever since the Grand Final, West Coast has saved some of its best performance for the MCG, which makes the line the safest play. This is a big test for both clubs, which means it should be close.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90

GWS Giants Vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday August 18, 3:20pm, Sydney Showground

The Bulldogs’ 55-point win over Essendon last week has put the pressure on several teams this week.

If the Power and Crows both lose, Luke Beveridge’s side will find themselves back inside the top eight with one game remaining. Should the Dogs lose though, they might find themselves out of finals contention for good.

The stakes are also high for the Giants this week as they hope to make up for a very uninspiring performance against the Hawks at home.

In snowy conditions, GWS managed only four goals in their 56-point loss, making a spot back inside the top four impossible with only two games remaining.

These two sides met only once last year in Canberra, a game the Giants dominated winning 133-51. GWS has won three straight now over the Dogs, but as the Bombers found out the hard way last week, the Westerners mean business.

After a wayward start to the season, the Bulldogs have really stepped up on attack during the second half of the season. The Dogs now rank second in inside ’50s and seventh in goals scored this year, which should put the pressure on the Giants.

Betting wise, the Dogs are 9-3 as the underdog against the line over the last 12 months and 5-3 away from home. The bookies have set a very slim line this week, but when you factor in the recent form of each side, it’s hard to imagine this one not being close.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

Hawthorn Vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday August 18, 4:40pm, Marvel Stadium

There are plenty of storylines to watch on Sunday afternoon, but there’s still plenty on the line for the Hawks in terms of finals.

Hawthorn’s huge win over the Giants last week leaves them within reach of the eight, and if results go their way, there’s still a chance they could sneak into September.

With Jarryd Roughead playing his final game, there should be added motivation for the Hawks to put on a show. Hawthorn defeated the Suns by 53-points when they met last year, and with Gold Coast struggling for goals, you can expect a similar margin this time around.

The line has been set at -47 points, which looks to be the only value play available. The Suns have lost two from three at Marvel this year, while the Hawks also own five 40+ point wins over the Suns.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (-47.5 Points) @ $1.90


2018

The 2018 AFL season just keeps on delivering!

Richmond and the West Coast Eagles look to have sewn up the top two, but every other position in the top eight is up for grabs and there are still a stack of teams left in finals contention.

Just about every game this weekend will have some form of finals consequences and our complete 2018 AFL Round 22 tips can be found below.

Richmond Vs Essendon

Friday 17 August, 7:50pm, MCG

Don’t for one second think this game doesn’t mean something to the Bombers.

Essendon’s finals hopes might be over, but the Dons will be looking to end their season on a high note by knocking off the reigning premiers at the G’.

Both sides recorded blowout victories last week over the Suns and Saints, but it’s safe to say this one should be much closer… right?

Last time we did this, Richmond walked away with a 71-point victory back in Round 11.

Sure, Essendon are a much sharper side right now, but the Bombers’ record against the Tigers says it all: they haven’t won a game against the yellow and black since 2014.

The forwards battle will be huge this week, and Orazio Fantasia’s match up against Alex Rance should provide plenty of excitement.

Down the other end, Jack Riewoldt sits just five goals short of 600, and after kicking 10 last week against the Suns, he’s every chance of jotting his name down in Richmond’s record books.

The biggest problem the Bombers faced last time out was Shane Edwards.

The gun half-forward racked up 31 disposals and a pair of goals earlier in June, and after a quiet week against the Suns, Friday nights game might be tailor-made for a bounce back performance.

Tip: Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-23.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Richmond 40+, Dustin Martin 29+ Disposals, 150 or Below Total Match Points

Collingwood Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 18 August, 1:45pm, MCG

Both of these sides were put to the sword last week, but it was Port who came out worse for wear.

The Power’s four-point loss to the Eagles has now sent them spiraling towards the bottom of the eight, and with two tough games against Collingwood and Essendon to close out the season, finals might be in doubt.

Speaking of the ladder, Collingwood jumped back up to fifth after seeing off the Lions at Etihad last week.

The baby Brisbane side gave the Magpies a scare however, trailing by only a handful of points at half time.

The good news for Port here is their record at the MCG.

The Power have defeated the Pies during their last two trips to the home of footy, and have also won six of their last seven games against Collingwood.

The bad news, though, is Jordan de Goey is back.

The Pies’ star full-forward booted a four goal bag against the Lions last week, and looks to have brought back the flare Collingwood was missing during his absence.

Since all four of Port’s most recent losses have come by a narrow margin, it’s safe to assume this game will be close. The Power hold the advantage in the midfield, but their inability to close out the fourth quarter over the last few weeks is alarming.

Fortunately for Port, Collingwood are so-so in the final terms themselves, but the loss of Charlie Dixon is a huge out for the Power.

That only delights Collingwood’s depleted back line, and it should also delight Pies fans on Saturday as they win a close one.

Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.00

Same Game Multi: Collingwood 1-39, Over 149.5 Total Points, Jordan de Goey 2+ Goals

Geelong Vs Fremantle

Saturday 18 August, 2:10pm, GMHBA Stadium

It’s not doomsday just yet for the Cats, but it’s getting pretty close.

Even though they fought back to be within a 10-points, last week was nothing short of ordinary from Geelong.

The Cats struggled to hold Hawthorn down in the midfield, which resulted in Hawthorn winning the inside fifty count and more importantly, the game.

Now sitting ninth on the ladder, Geelong not only need to win out, they need other results to go their way.

Since the ladder is so tight, a game against Fremantle couldn’t have come at a better time -a blowout here at home would surely boost the Cats’ percentage and give them a nice chance to play through September.

Fremantle know all about blowout wins, notching one themselves over Carlton last week.

The Dockers have been poor in Melbourne this year though, and as so many teams have found out, GMHBA Stadium is no place for the bottom four clubs to earn a win this season.

One of the biggest problems the Cats will be working on this week is goal accuracy.

Tom Hawkins had every chance to beat the Hawks himself last week, but he kicked just one goal from his four set shots.

It’s unlikely Chris Scott singles out individual players, but the Cats also need Joel Selwood to fire.

The future Hall of Famer managed just 18 disposals during last weeks loss while Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett combined for 71.

Still, this is the game the Cats needed, and if they can get all their stars on the same page for a change, this should be if nothing else, a confidence boosting win.

Tip: Over 156.5 Points @ $1.85

Same Game Multi: Geelong 40+, Patrick Dangerfield Over 29.5 Disposals, Joel Selwood Over 29.5 Disposals, Gary Ablett To Kick a Goal

GWS Giants Vs Sydney Swans

Saturday 18 August, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium

The Sydney Derby hasn’t always lived up to expectations, but it’s safe to say this one will.

After looking doubtful for finals, the Swans now look like one of the most dangerous teams in the eight.

They’ll need to keep winning from here if they wish to hold their position mind you, but last weeks win over Melbourne taught us one thing: don’t count this team out.

The Giants can also relate to coming back from the dead.

GWS looked toast six weeks ago, but all of a sudden the Giants have won five on the trot.

Sitting third on the ladder, this game holds huge ladder implications for Leon Cameron’s side.

A loss could see GWS slip as low as sixth, but a win could put the Giants just two points away from second place West Coast.

This game is a tough one to get a read on, especially after Sydney’s recent return to form.

The injury to Alex Johnson last week has probably given the Swans added incentive to make the finals, but Jeremy Cameron’s two goal bag last week sets us up for a big battle between himself and Buddy Franklin.

Since Sydney have won the last two encounters between these two by comfortable margins, side with the Swans at the line this week.

Back Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Swans To Win, Under 165.5 Total Points

Gold Coast Suns Vs Brisbane Lions

Saturday 18 August, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium

One day the QClash might hold finals implications, but for now, this game should still be plenty of fun.

The Lions played a strong first half last week against Collingwood, trailing by only a matter of points at the main break.

Not for the first time though, Brisbane’s strong pressure fell away in the second half, and so did their goal scoring opportunities.

As for the Suns, they were flat out embarrassed by the reigning premiers at home.

That much we expected, but no one saw Jack Riewoldt kicking 10 goals in a brilliant 74-point win.

This game holds nothing for the winner other than bragging rights, but that will mean a lot to either club.

Gold Coast stole a narrow win over the Lions at The Gabba back in Round 5, but Brisbane’s form since then has been nothing short of great despite just four wins on the season.

For the Lions, this is a chance to stamp themselves as the top QLD club in the competition.

After so many weeks of “close but no cigar” type efforts, Brisbane would like to finish on top of the Suns on the ladder for their own peace of mind.

In order to do that, the Lions will rely on Eric Hipwood.

Brisbane’s breakout full forward kicked three goals last time these two met, and since Dayne Beams is now in fantastic form, those two alone should give the Lions a realistic shot at taking the points.

For the Suns, the loss of Pearce Hanley is huge. In just his second game back with the club, it’s a devastating loss to a lineup already ravished by injury, and one that will ultimately cost the Suns in the midfield.

With all that in mind, everything looks set up for the Lions fifth victory of the season.

Tip: Back Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $2.12

Same Game Multi: Lions To Win, Dayne Beams 2+ Goals, Gold Coast To Win 1st Quarter 1-8

St Kilda Vs Hawthorn

Saturday 18 August, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

The Hawks surged into the Top 4 last week after a resounding win over the Cats.

Things got hairy in the fourth quarter, but overall, it was a game Hawthorn deserved to win after playing like the better team on the day.

St. Kilda’s misery was on full display last week against the Bombers, falling by 43-points on the primetime stage.

To make matters worse, Nathan Brown looks likely to miss the rest of the season following his nasty bump on Andrew Saad.

Hawthorn’s ability to gracefully move the ball by foot against Geelong last week was impressive.

The Hawks have come a long way since their torturous loss against the Lions a month ago down in Launceston, and if they can continue to rely on Jack Gunston and Luke Breust’s accuracy in front of goal, there’s no telling where this team might go.

St. Kilda fans wish they could say the same.

Foot skills have been shocking for the Saints all year, but last week in particular highlighted just how many position piece are missing on this team.

It’s safe to say the Saints midfield will struggle against Hawthorn, and more importantly, Brownlow Medal favourite, Tom Mitchell.

A win here will likely sure up a Top 4 finish for Hawthorn, so expect Alastair Clarkson’s side to rise to the occasion.

Tip: Back Hawthorn To Win 39+ @ $2.12

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn 1-39, Paul Puopolo 2+ Goals, Under 173.5 Total Points

Carlton Vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday 19 August, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium

A 29-point loss to the Dockers saw Carlton firm even further as the wooden spoon favourites last week.

The Blues hardly looked like winning away from home, and if it wasn’t for Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, the scoreboard would probably look a lot worse.

While Carlton faded, the Dogs stood strong.

It was a first half to forget for Luke Beveridge’s side, riddled with turnovers and inaccuracy in what looked to be a superior North Melbourne side.

What transpired in the second half, though, was nothing short of a marvelous.

The Dogs were down by 27-points at the main break, but fought back behind Dale Morris and Marcus Bontempelli to win by seven points.

It was perhaps the win of the season for the Dogs, and it’s one they can really build on heading towards Sunday’s game.

With Richmond up next, this might be the last chance for the Bulldogs to taste victory in 2018, and if they can ride this great form into Etihad, they should make it three on the trot.

Tip: Back Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-27.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-39, Jack Macrae 29.5+ Disposals, Jordan Roughead 2+ Goals

West Coast Eagles Vs Melbourne

Sunday 19 August, 3:20pm, Optus Stadium

Turns out the Demons suffered two straight losses last week as news surfaced on Tuesday surrounding Jesse Hogan’s season ending foot injury.

It’s a crushing blow for Melbourne in what could turn out to be another dud season.

The Demons loss to Sydney last week now sees them down to seventh on the ladder, and as you can see, this weeks game is no gimme.

West Coast’s weekend ended on a much more positive note, taking care of the Power in Adelaide by four-points on a final siren goal thanks to Jeremy McGovern.

It was a crucial win for the Eagles with a home finals berth still uncertain, and one they can build on with a host of players still missing.

For Melbourne to win this one, they’ll need to actually kick straight.

The Dees had 28 opportunities to score a goal last week, the third most of any team in Round 21, but managed to kick just 10 goals.

It’s also worth noting that the Demons haven’t beaten any of the top nine teams this season.

That means Melbourne now has to knock off the Eagles or the Giants in the next fortnight if they stand any chance of playing finals.

Since both of these teams have so much to play for, picking a winner is probably a punters worst nightmare.

If West Coast win, they secure a home finals berth, and if Melbourne win, they should be playing come September.

Lineup wise, both sides are missing their star forwards. Josh Kennedy has been ruled out of this clash, but the loss of Hogan really depletes the goal scoring chances Melbourne have created all season.

As one of the worst disposal efficiency teams in the competition, the Demons will need to clean up their act against this West Coast midfield. Unfortunately, a road game at Optus Stadium probably isn’t the place to do it.

Tip: Back West Coast Eagles 40+ @ $4.75

Same Game Multi: Eagles 40+, Over 169.5 Total Match Points

Adelaide Crows Vs North Melbourne

Sunday 19 August, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval

So the Crows are finally done and dusted.

Taylor Walker’s season is now over after accepting a two game ban, and unless Adelaide can somehow take down North Melbourne without him, the Crows season will be over too.

On the same token, the same can be said for North Melbourne. The Roos hardly looked like a finals team during last weeks dismal second half effort against the Dogs, and aside from Ben Brown, there’s a handful of players that need to step up if North are to make the eight.

Just like the Crows, it might take a miracle for the Roos to beat Adelaide this week. North haven’t won in Adelaide since 2011, and it’ll take a lot more than just Brown, Majak Daw and Shaun Higgins to take down the the Crows.

The Roos have been hot and cold all season, and although the Crows have nothing but bragging rights on the line, Adelaide will be looking to give their home fans something to feel good about in their last home game of the season.

Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.15

Same Game Multi: Crows 1-39, North Melbourne To Win 1st Quarter 9-16, 150 Or Below Total Match Points


2017

There are now only two rounds left in the 2017 AFL regular season and there is still a great deal on the line.

A number of teams simply must win this weekend to keep their finals hopes alive and the jostling for positions inside the top eight is on in earnest.

There are a host of excellent betting plays to be found this weekend and below are our complete 2017 AFL Round 22 tips.

Adelaide Crows Vs Sydney Swans

Friday 18 August, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide Crows 80 - Sydney Swans 83

The Adelaide Crows will secure the minor premiership with a win over the Sydney Swans and they are favourites to do just that.

Adelaide produced another polished performance to get the job done against Essendon and they have not lost since they were beaten by Hawthorn in June.

The Crows have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is identical.

Sydney moved closer to a top four finish with a dominant performance against Fremantle and there is no doubt that they will be the side nobody wants to play in the AFL Finals.

The Swans have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are only a middling 2-2 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that really could go either way and it is Sydney at their current quote of $2.30 that do represent the value in this clash.

Back Sydney To Win @ $2.30

Western Bulldogs Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 19 August, 1:45pm, Eureka Stadium

Western Bulldogs 79 - Port Adelaide 96

This is a massive game for both these sides.

There really is nothing between the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, but it is the Bulldogs that look set to start this clash as narrow favourites.

The Bulldogs dropped out of the top eight following their defeat at the hands of Greater Western Sydney and a loss here would make qualifying for the AFL Finals a very difficult task.

They have won 11 of their past 16 games as favourites, but they are an extremely poor 4-12 against the line when giving away a start.

Port Adelaide overcame Collingwood in what looked like a potential danger game and they can keep alive their hopes of a top four finish with a win over the Western Bulldogs.

The Power have won only two of their past seven games as underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

A major problem for Port Adelaide this season has been beating the best teams in the competition and on their day the Western Bulldogs are definitely that.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $1.90

Collingwood Vs Geelong

Saturday 19 August, 2:10pm, MCG

Collingwood 59 - Geelong 70

Geelong have now all-but secured a top four finish and they can keep themselves in the hunt for the top two with a win over Collingwood.

They were without a host of big names, but Geelong still proved too strong for Richmond and it is no surprise that they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Geelong have won 13 of their past 18 games as favourites, but they are only 8-10 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood had their unbeaten run ended by Port Adelaide last weekend and they face another tough challenge against Geelong, but they will take confidence from the fact that they have won the past three games played between these two sides.

The Magpies have won three of their past ten games as underdogs for a small loss, but much more impressively they are 8-2 against the line when being given a start.

This is the type of game that Geelong have struggled in this season and Collingwood can cover the line with the start.

Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)

GWS Giants Vs West Coast Eagles

Saturday 19 August, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium

GWS Giants 81 - West Coast Eagles 60

The West Coast Eagles currently sit in eight position, but they could find themselves as low as tenth if results don’t go their way this weekend.

Stringing together back-to-back wins has proven to be a big issue for West Coast this season, but their record away from home has been surprisingly strong.

The Eagles have won three of their five games as away underdogs for a big profit and they did give Greater Western Sydney a serious scare earlier this season.

Greater Western Sydney have got their season back on track in recent weeks and they remain an outside chance of winning the minor premiership.

The Giants have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a profit, but they are a poor 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

West Coast are capable of giving the Giants is scare if they bring their best football to Sydney and they are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 25.5 points.

Back West Coast To Beat The Line (+25.5 Points)

Gold Coast Suns Vs Essendon

Saturday 19 August, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium

Gold Coast Suns 57 - Essendon 90

The Gold Coast Suns hit a new low last weekend and Essendon go into this clash as clear favourites.

The sacking of Rodney Eade did not get a response from the Suns and they were no match for the Brisbane Lions on Saturday afternoon.

Gold Coast have won three of their seven games as home underdogs this season, but it really is tough to have any faith in them based on their recent efforts.

Essendon went down to Adelaide last weekend, but this is obviously a much easier assignment.

The Bombers have won only one of their past three games as away favourites and they really have been a team that has struggled as the punter’s elect.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Carlton Vs Hawthorn

Saturday 19 August, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton 77 - Hawthorn 70

Hawthorn still have a mathematical chance of making the finals, but they would obviously need to beat Carlton to keep that dream alive.

The Hawks were solid against North Melbourne, but they are still a tough team to trust from a betting perspective.

They have won only four of their past eight games as favourites for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 2-6.

Carlton have lost their past eight games, but they were still far from disgraced against the West Coast Eagles.

The Blues have won six of their past 20 games as underdogs for a profit and they are an impressive 13-7 against the line in this situation.

Hawthorn have won their past 14 games against Carlton and they should win again this weekend, but the Blues are capable of beating the line with a start of over 20 points.

Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+21.5 Points)

Melbourne Vs Brisbane Lions

Sunday 20 August, 1:10pm, MCG

Melbourne 104 - Brisbane Lions 91

Melbourne currently sit in seventh position on the AFL Ladder and their finals fate now rests in their own hand.

They handled the pressure to beat St Kilda in a crucial game last weekend and they are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.

Melbourne have won four of their past seven games as home favourites for a loss and they really are tough to trust against the line in this scenario – they have covered the line in only two of their past seven games as home favourites.

The Brisbane Lions returned to winning form with an excellent performance against the Gold Coast Suns and they have really played some quality football in the second half of the season.

Brisbane have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are a most impressive 8-3 against the line in this scenario.

There has been plenty to like about the way that the Brisbane Lions have played in recent weeks and they can cover the line with a start of 34.5 points.

Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+34.5 Points)

St Kilda Vs North Melbourne

Sunday 20 August, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda 127 - North Melbourne 78

St Kilda now need plenty to go their way to have any chance of playing Finals football and a loss at the hands of North Melbourne would effectively end their season.

The Saints have won only one of their past five games, but they are still set to go into this clash with the Kangaroos as clear favourites.

St Kilda have won seven of their past nine games as favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne have won only one of their past eight games and it really isn’t in their best interests to win any more games this season.

The Kangaroos have won only three of their past 17 games as underdogs for a clear loss and they are a middling 8-9 against the line in this scenario.

These are two teams that are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

Fremantle Vs Richmond

Sunday 20 August, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium

Fremantle 51 - Richmond 155

Richmond missed a golden opportunity to cement a top four finish with a win over Geelong last weekend and this clash with Fremantle does look like a danger game.

The Tigers really were poor against Geelong and this will be a real test of their mental toughness as they lost to Fremantle in heartbreaking fashion 12 months ago.

Richmond have now won only three of their past five games as away favourites, but they do have the same record against the line.

Fremantle produced one of their worst performances of the season to do down to Sydney last weekend and they have now lost four of their past five games.

The Dockers have won two of their past seven games as home underdogs for a profit, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

Richmond really should prove too strong for Fremantle and the line of 13.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.

Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)


2016

Round 22 of the 2016 AFL season starts with a Grand Final rematch between the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn – a game that we could easily see repeated during the AFL finals.

North Melbourne host the Sydney Swans in Tasmania in the pick of Saturday’s fixtures before Collingwood host the Gold Coast Suns in a rare fixture at Etihad Stadium.

The Brisbane Lions scored a famous victory over Geelong three seasons ago and will be looking to repeat the dose this weekend, while the found finishes when Essendon face the Western Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon.

West Coast Eagles Vs Hawthorn

Friday 19 August, 6:10pm, Domain Stadium

West Coast Eagles 92 - Hawthorn 67

The West Coast Eagles were written off by the majority of AFL experts a fortnight ago, but they will head into this Grand Final rematch as favourites following an upset victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants.

Even though they have been through a perceived form slump, West Coast have still won seven of their past eight games and remain a genuine chance of finishing in the top four.

It is no secret that West Coast have an outstanding record at Domain Stadium and they have won 12 of their past 13 games as home favourites, while they beat Hawthorn at home in the finals last year.

Hawthorn bounced back from their defeat at the hands of Melbourne to record a comfortable win over North Melbourne and they should now be able to hold on to the minor premiership.

This is just the second game that Hawthorn have started as underdogs in the past 12 months and they won both of those fixtures, while they have proven to be a profitable betting proposition away from home.

It is very difficult to split these two teams at Domain Stadium, but I have still found a value bet in this contest.

Both West Coast and Hawthorn have generally been unders teams this season and the under 170.5 points is a great bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 170.5 Points

North Melbourne Vs Sydney Swans

Saturday 20 August, 1:45pm, Blundstone Arena

North Melbourne 76 - Sydney Swans 85

The Sydney Swans are the new AFL Premiership favourites and are clear favourite to get the job done against North Melbourne this weekend.

Sydney were able to put away St Kilda in very dominant fashion and coach John Longmire will be hopeful that his side can maintain that level of performance heading into the AFL Finals.

The Swans have not been a flawless betting side as away favourites this season and they have dropped three games in this situation, but they are still 6-4 against the line.

North Melbourne were no match for Hawthorn last weekend and they are still a very outside chance of missing the AFL Finals.

The Kangaroos have won their past two games at Blundstone Arena, but they have generally struggled as underdogs this season and they have won just two of their past nine games as underdogs.

Sydney really should be able to get the job done in this clash, but their current price looks just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Richmond Vs St Kilda

Saturday 20 August, 2:10pm, MCG

Richmond 46 - St Kilda 55

Richmond have an excellent record against St Kilda in recent seasons and they have won the past six games played between the two sides, but it is St Kilda that will start this game as favourites.

St Kilda were at the receiving end of a heavy defeat at the hands of Sydney last weekend and it is somewhat surprising that they will start this game as the punter’s elect.

In saying that, St Kilda generally do win when the market expects them to and they have won their past four games as favourites.

Richmond looked the goods for the majority of their clash with Geelong, but they gave the game away in the final quarter in the most Richmond fashion possible.

The Tigers have won just two of their past ten games as underdogs, but those two wins did occur at the MCG and their record against St Kilda is excellent.

There is evidence to suggest that both of these teams are going to be able to get the job done, but they are both tough to trust and this is another game that I am happy to ignore from a betting standpoint.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

GWS Giants Vs Fremantle

Saturday 20 August, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium

GWS Giants 129 - Fremantle Dockers 37

The Greater Western Sydney Giants suffered a surprise loss at the hands of the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but they are dominant favourites to return to winning form this weekend.

Despite the Giants loss to West Coast, they still remain a profitable betting side in front of their home fans at Spotless Stadium and they have beaten the line in six of their past eight games at the venue.

Fremantle were very poor against Adelaide and they are now staring down the barrel of an eighth straight defeat, with sights clearly set on 2017.

The Dockers have now lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a truly dreadful 2-9 against the line in this scenario.

The line has been set at 57.5 points, but teams in the AFL are 5-2 when giving away a start of this magnitude and the Giants will be out to make a statement this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-57.5 Points)

Collingwood Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 20 August, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

Collingwood 118 - Gold Coast Suns 47

This has been a season to forget for both these sides and neither have a great deal to play for heading into this clash.

It is Collingwood that will go into this clash as clear favourites and it is incredibly tough to trust them in this position.

The Magpies have won just two of their five games as home favourites this season for a big loss and they have lost four of their past five clashes.

Gold Coast’s season hit a new low when they suffered a shock loss at the hands of Essendon and they have proven to be one of the worst teams in the AFL this season from a betting perspective.

The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are a non-profitable 4-5 against the line in this situation.

These are two of the least trustworthy betting teams in the AFL and this is clearly a game that most AFL punters will be staying out of this clash.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Port Adelaide Vs

Saturday 20 August, 7:10pm, Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide 94 - Adelaide 109

Showdown is always one of the most hotly-contested games during the AFL season and this is a rare occasion where one team will start as clear favourites.

Adelaide have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they have won seven of their past eight games and are now on the third line of premiership betting markets.

The Crows are touted as Adelaide Oval specialists and that actually isn’t the case – they have won just four of their six games as home favourites and are a middling 3-3 against the line.

Port Adelaide were very poor against Melbourne and they have now lost three of their past four.

The Power have also been somewhat unconvincing at the Adelaide Oval this season and they have lost their past four games as home favourites,  while they are 1-3 against the line.

The head to head betting market looks just about right, but I have still found a betting play in the total points betting market.

Seven of the past nine games played between these two sides have gone over and with the Crows playing highly entertaining football they should be able to combine for more than 183.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 183.5 Points

Carlton Vs Melbourne

Sunday 21 August, 1:10pm, MCG

Carlton 78 - Melbourne 58

Melbourne still have an outside chance of qualifying for the AFL Finals and to do that they need to win this clash in emphatic fashion.

The Demons were able to make it three wins on the trot with their comfortable victory over Port Adelaide and a repeat of that performance would be enough to see off a struggling Carlton outfit.

The problem for the Demons is that they are still an unconvincing side as favourites and they have won just four of their past eight games as the punter’s elect, while they are 3-5 against the line.

Carlton were extremely poor against the Brisbane Lions and haven’t won a game of football in two months, but there are reasons to be optimistic this weekend.

The Navy Blues have proven to be a profitable betting side across every metric as underdogs this season and their record at the MCG this season has not been bad.

Carlton have every chance of recording an upset victory over the Demons and I am more than happy to back them with a start of 21.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+21.5 Points)

Brisbane Lions Vs Geelong

Sunday 21 August, 3:20pm, The Gabba

Brisbane Lions 69 - Geelong Cats 60

The Brisbane Lions famously beat Geelong after the siren in 2013, but they have lost the past four games played between the two sides and that does not look like it will change this weekend.

The Lions were able to return to winning form against Carlton last weekend, but they face a completely different level of challenge against Geelong and it should come as no surprise that they are giving away such a big start.

Brisbane have generally saved their best form for The Gabba this season and they are now a profitable betting play as home underdogs, while they are 5-5 against the line in this scenario.

Geelong did not make it look easy, but they eventually got the job done against Richmond last weekend.

The Cats can’t afford to drop this game if they want to finish in the top four and there is evidence to suggest that this game will not be as one-sided as the betting suggests.

Geelong have won just five of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are an extremely poor 2-8 against the line.

The Lions could give the Cats somewhat of a scare in this clash and I am keen to back the underdogs with a start of 58.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Lions To Beat The Line (+58.5 Points)

Essendon Vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday 21 August, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Essendon 53 - Western Bulldogs 93

Essendon recorded just their second win of the season against the Gold Coast Suns last Sunday and they will go into this clash with some confidence.

The Bombers were more than deserving of their upset win, but they have struggled to string together quality performances in back-to-back weeks.

They have now improved their record as underdogs to 3-19 – still a big loss – and they are actually 4-3 against the line at Etihad Stadium.

The Western Bulldogs scored a narrow victory over Collingwood last weekend – showing plenty of toughness to do so – and they continue to be a positive betting side.

They have won 11 of their past 14 games as favourites and they are 8-6 against the line when giving away a start.

The market looks to have got this game right from a head-to-head perspective, but the under has saluted in 11 of the 12 games played by the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium this season and the total points line of 168.5 does look a tad excessive for a game involving Essendon.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 168.5 Points