It’s going to be pretty hard to back up last week’s highlight reel showcase, but there’s every chance we could see similar, with three rounds to go and everything to play for ahead of September action.   

As we look ahead at all the key matchups and analyse everything that can go right and wrong for our teams, we’ve put together our tips and tricks in the AFL Round 22 Preview.   

It’s become the final straw to kickstart any reminiscence of their flawless start to the year, and probably no worse side for it to come against than the Pies.   

It wasn’t a shock that the Pies got up against the Blues given recent history, but they proved again how deadly they can be out the back when they get it going.   

Sydney showed no fight or ability to control the footy around the contest, smashed in every area, and dominated from start to finish.   

It feels as though the loss of Tom Papley is becoming a bigger factor week after week, but most issues start defensively, which is prominent with the Swans, who have been exposed for their lack of height in the backline.  

For all the Swans dominance this year, they’re actually one of the least efficient teams in the competition, in the bottom five, that is along with the Pies in second last.    

Collingwood are still playing to keep their season alive, but it feels as though they’ve got more of a license to play with freedom.   

The Swans have beaten the Pies once this season, back in Round 1, so past results are in their favour, and combining that with three wins in a row at the SCG against the black and white, a lot will have to go against them to fall short.   

Confidence in this part of the year is crucial, and the Swans don’t have it, but the Pies aren’t in cracking form either.   

Expect free-flowing, fast football through the corridor, a shootout that should keep us captivated for four quarters.   

 The Swans simply must make a statement after that loss and prove to their home faithful they can still contend.   

Tip: Joel Amartey to kick 2+ goals and either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $5.14 

There’s arguably no hotter team in the competition at the moment than the Lions, and they’ll be keen to make another big statement this weekend against a fellow contender.    

Arguably the Giants haven’t been playing the most convincing style of footy, coming back from five goals down to beat Hawthorn, slugging it out against Melbourne, and beating the Suns on pure accuracy in front of goals.   

The Lions smashed the Saints at the stoppages, and it’s been their bread and butter ever since their midseason turnaround.   

GWS were forceful with their inside 50’s late against the Hawks but were stagnant in generating useful transition for the most part.   

There’s no area the Lions seem weak in at the moment, and since Round 15 they have only conceded over 90 once, and scored no less than 79, which still won them the game.   

Defensively the Lions will need to shut down the Giants forward power, but other teams haven’t struggled too much, so it’s hard to see Brisbane doing so.   

Earlier this year at Manuka, the Giants steamrolled the Lions by 54 points, crushing them with uncontested possession, which will be Brisbane’s main focus to shut down on the small Gabba turf.   

The Lions have won the past two games against the Giants at the Gabba, which broke a five-game losing streak before that point.   

There’s a good chance the Giants will get a harsh reality check in this contest, and at the Gabba, that doesn’t help their case.   

Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 

It’s rare to say that both sides are coming off a win, but both are, and it should make for a much more entertaining clash, similar to what we saw earlier this year at Optus.   

It’s a matter of blooding youth for the Roos, getting the game exposure in and simply daring with their ball use, which is what got them up over the Tigers.   

The Eagles are in a transition phase, trying to find balance between old and young, but their competitiveness has wavered on the road.   

What has made the Kangas lift in the back end of the year is their disposal efficiency, giving themselves heaps more opportunity to impact forward of centre, which they’ve capitalised on.   

West Coast have been damaging with their contest pressure, and it’s what separates their best and worst at home and on the road.   

The Eagles surprisingly have the least turnovers on average per game, but also average the least disposals per game, so imposing themselves on the contest early will give them some leverage.   

The Roos forward pressure has made them a constant threat in transition, and with Nick Larkey kicking everything coming his way, they’re putting up big totals.   

The Eagles also have Jake Waterman doing similar things, but in the context of this clash, North’s depth is more productive when it matters.   

The Eagles have only won once in Tassie in the three games so far, all the way back in 2012, with the most recent meeting back in 2018 where North won.   

Tip: North Melbourne to win by more than 15.5 points @ $2.20   

The Dockers find a way to suck you in and let you down and as a result, they’ve probably let a big opportunity to solidify a top four spot slip away.   

The Cats on the other hand aren’t playing threatening football themselves, but a good start to the year and individual brilliance has kept them in the top eight.   

Fremantle’s midfield dominance has held them in good stead over the past few weeks, and whilst their system holds them in good stead, they have periods where they fade away suddenly  like we saw against the Bombers.   

Geelong was facing a nasty loss to the Crows at home, but when you’ve such talent like Jeremy Cameron, anything is possible.   

The Cats play a heavy territory game and love to get run out the back in transition, but often teams shut them down and their avenues to goal dry up, which has hurt them on bigger grounds.   

The Dockers use the footy well, and while they often don’t see as many inside 50 entries, they’re hard to defend.   

It will be intriguing to see how the Dockers backline lines up, and whether they take an ultra-defensive stance, or look to hurt the Cats on turnover.   

In the four meetings between these sides at Optus, it’s been two wins each, but the Dockers have too much on the line, and they’ve often responded well after a loss.   

Tip: Fremantle to win by 1-39 and Jye Amiss to Kick 2+ Goals @ $3.39 

To put it simply, the Bombers will win this comfortably and the reason is obvious to many.   

Despite the consensus from Bombers fans that they will be the ones to hand Gold Coast their first interstate win, not even Essendon can embarrass themselves that badly.   

Essendon match up well against the Suns and were probably the closest across four quarters to beating them up in Queensland earlier this year where the Suns snuck home by 11 points.   

The Suns have never beaten Essendon at Marvel Stadium, which makes their interstate record even more menacing heading into this clash.   

The Bombers got going late against the Dockers with their offensive flare but continue to have their defensive issues that will probably keep them out of finals unless they can pull off an upset against Sydney or Brisbane.   

Gold Coast’s mental weakness continues to let them down interstate, and while they were able to start well against the Eagles, they can’t maintain it and eventually get smashed around the contest.   

The small forwards can cause the biggest issues for the Bombers, and the Suns sit second for inside 50s, so if they can at least challenge with repeat entries, they’ll stay in the contest.   

But some things don’t change, and even though the Bombers can embarrass themselves, this would be a season low to drop this.   

Tip: Essendon to cover the line (-12.5) and Jade Gresham Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.57 

It’s been a season straight from hell and the Dees mental strength and resilience will once again be tested against a ravaging Port Adelaide outfit.   

Not too often you can say you beat the ladder-leaders by 112 points, but the Power did that, crushing the Swans and possibly their season.   

Their speed out of the stoppages has made them so deadly in the past few weeks, and their rapidness moving it inside 50 really tests out the opposition defence.   

Melbourne has been lacklustre around the contest and don’t really seem to be sparking a lot of defensive output.   

Their inside 50 count is in the bottom five of the competition, and without any forward consistency, they’ve struggled to kick winning scores at times.   

Port Adelaide still has defensive issues of their own to work out ahead of finals, and their ability to defend over the top transition still needs to be accounted for.   

Whether the Dees can exploit that is hard to say, especially on such a wide MCG ground where they like to play quite wide in transition.   

Earlier in the year, the Dees went to Adelaide and got home by seven points, punishing Port’s inaccuracy after being smashed around the contests.   

The Power were arguably much worse back then and still dominated the contest, so it’s hard to see the Demons recouping the same fortunes from that night this week.   

Tip: Ollie Wines to have 25+ disposals and Power to win by 1-39 @ $3.09 

It’s nearly do-or-die for the Blues, who again couldn’t lift against their arch-rivals after nearly completing a late-comeback.     

Hawthorn have become their own worst enemy in close games, and a loss on the weekend could make their finals hopes come down to percentage.   

The Blues certainly kicked themselves out of it against the Pies, but it’s their general decision-making that has been horrid in transition, kicking to low percentage contests quite often.   

Their inability to defend fast break transition has let them down, and it’s certainly an area the Hawks will look to punish them on with their sparky midfield.   

The Hawks will have to look to go smaller inside 50 and lower their eyes, as the Blues are likely to beat them in marking contests.   

 Both sides are similar in their ability to impact contested and uncontested footy, but the Hawks will need to find a bit more balance around stoppages, where they’re often beaten compared to centre clearances where they’re more dynamic.   

The Hawks were smashed in contested marks last week, which will be a key area of focus to shut down Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.   

Carlton isn’t far off it, and they still haven’t been blown away recently, they’re just lacking connection.   

Both sides are coming off excruciating losses, but the Hawks are still in better form and still nothing to lose given they’re ahead of the curve.   

Carlton are honouring their 1995 side with a heritage guernsey, and they’ll sure need to play like those of old to win.   

Tip: Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.55 

Richmond has all but locked away pick one in the draft, but despite that upside, last week was quite the sour finish to what has been a sour season.   

St Kilda looked like they were ready to shake things up the past few weeks, but returned true to form, bashed by the Lions at Marvel.   

With nothing on the line and ladder positions almost sewn up for both, there should be a push for fast footy on the Marvel deck.   

It’s a Marvel deck the Tigers particularly don’t like, and hosting this clash against a Marvel tenant probably won’t go down well either.   

Back at Norwood in Gather Round, the Tigers were on top for the first half before the Saints got things back on their terms.   

Richmond certainly had their opportunities against North, but were super inaccurate, so if they’re able to continue their fast-paced movement against the Saints, they could quickly blow open the game unexpectedly.   

The Saints used the footy well against the Lions but were shocking inside 50, unable to create any real momentum or creativity.   

When they lack at clearance, they are quite dependent on forcing stoppages up the ground, which can work against bottom sides, in their favour for this one.   

Neither team has anything to play for, but with the Tigers holding a firm grasp on pick one, I don’t think a maximum effort will be seen for the rest of the year if they can help it.   

Tip: Saints to win by 1-24 @ $3.30 

The Sons of the West are equally as threatening as the Lions right now, and they’ve got a top four spot in the palm of their hands if they keep on winning.   

Adelaide was valiant against the Cats, and despite holding a two-goal lead in the final quarter, they couldn’t hold on.   

It has been six years since these sides last met at Adelaide Oval, with the last five encounters out in Ballarat and the COVID hub.   

Along with that, the Bulldogs simply haven’t beaten Adelaide in the Adelaide Oval era, or in Adelaide in general since 2010, so history is against them.   

The Crows were able to hold up defensively quite well against the Cats, and while they struggled to contain Jeremy Cameron, their taller forward line is quite brutish in forward contests.   

But the biggest difference in this clash is the midfield, with the Dogs simply steamrolling everyone in their way as of recent.   

But the Crows can certainly match them being statistically better than the Dogs in stoppage clearances this year, sitting third and fourth respectively.   

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan seems off the chain at the moment, and if the Crows couldn’t stop Cameron, it’s hard to see them shutting him down.   

The Crows love to generate out the back transition, but the question is how else they can generate enough scoring opportunities to outscore the Dogs.   

Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-39 and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to Kick 2+ Goals @ $3.37 

2023

The stakes are high again this week with several games holding serious weight in terms of the AFL finals picture.

A heavyweight clash awaits on Friday night between the Pies and the Cats, followed by a super Saturday that features the Lions taking on the Crows, and the red-hot Blues in action against Melbourne.

The top-eight is again in focus on Sunday when Port hosts GWS in Adelaide, and as always, we’ve got you covered with analysis on every game below!

Flag favourites Collingwood suddenly look vulnerable, further proof that a fortnight in footy can sometimes be a long time.

Back-to-back losses to Carlton, and more shocklingly, Hawthorn last week, has exposed a few chinks in the Pies’ armour, areas the Cats will be hoping to exploit this week in a rematch of last year’s qualifying final.

The Cats got the job done at home last week against Port, but it was far from a convincing performance.

Missing a few Premiership stars was one excuse, but there are genuine concerns for Chris Scott when it comes to winning the clearances, and also impacting the scoreboard.

The Pies, on the other hand, simply couldn’t get their hands on the footy last week, failing to match Hawthorn through the midfield and really struggling to win the centre bounce.

Looking forward, this is a huge matchup with serious finals implications – a win for the Pies would almost ensure the minor premiership, while the Cats are still on the outside of the eight looking in.

Collingwood prevailed by 23 points when these two sides met back in March, but the Cats find themselves shorthanded this time around with Tom Hawkins still to prove his fitness, and Cam Guthrie absent with a toe injury.

The Pies have also been dealt a serious blow, with Brownlow favourite Nick Daivos ruled out for six weeks with a knee. Daicos’ overall involvement will be sorely missed, but Collingwood still has enormous depth and talent to fall back on.

Betting on this game is tough, but the Pies do represent value head-to-head.

Aside from last week, Collingwood has been a fierce tackling side all year, a big problem for a Geelong side that hasn’t been disposing of the ball that cleanly.

They suddenly look human, but maybe last week was the loss the Pies needed moving forward.

Tip: Back the Pies 1-39 @ $2.30

The 9-11 Suns take a trip to Sydney on Saturday to face the Swans at a familiar hunting ground.

Gold Coast has won its last two trips to the SCG, pulling off a midseason upset over the Bloods a couple of years ago prior to their Round 1 belting back at Heritage Bank.

It’s been a rollercoaster season for John Longmire and the Swans, but they’re beginning to resemble something closer to that same team we saw during the season-opener.

Sydney has rattled off four wins on the trot, the most recent coming by 11 points in a thrilling ‘Battle of the Bridge’ grudge match last week against GWS.

Suddenly, the Swans might be the most dangerous team vying for a finals spot, but given their next two games involve the Adelaide Crows and Melbourne, this shapes as a must-win clash.

If the Swans are to prevail, it will likely come at the hands (or boot) of Errol Gulden. The young attacking midfielder is in sparkling form at present, amassing 30+ touches in three of his last five games and also impacting the scoreboard.

Sydney was also outstanding last week on the rebound, smacking the Giants for seven goals out of their own defensive 50.

The Suns, on the other hand, have struggled to put together four consistent quarters of scoring all year, not to mention the fact they’ve failed to cover in their last five road games.

Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-19.5 Points) @ $1.90

Essendon’s close shave against West Coast last week makes this one of the more interesting games of the round – albeit for the wrong reasons.

The Dons have taken steps forward under first-year head coach Brad Scott, but this recent fall from the eight has to be disappointing for fans that once held out hope for finals.

Three losses from their last five games makes for tough reading, but given they sit only four points adrift from the eight, there’s still a case to be made for the Bombers playing through to September.

Further down, North also has something to play for.

The Roos currently sit 17th above West Coast on percentage, but with both clubs tied on eight points – and the Eagles showing some fight of late – the wooden spoon race continues to heat up.

To make matters more complicated, the Bombers only prevailed by six points when the pair met back in June, while it’s worth noting North has been a steady betting play under the roof, covering in seven of their last eight games.

With the Bombers still likely missing Sam Draper, Jake Stringer, and Dylan Shiel, this shapes as another tight contest.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+23.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Lions kick off a huge afternoon of sport in Brisbane on Saturday with the Matildas stepping out in their quarter-final against France not long after.

Despite Chris Fagan’s best efforts to convince us otherwise, a top two spot is still crucial for the Lions’ finals chances, especially after prevailing by only three points on the road against Fremantle last week.

To be fair, the Lions actually played a solid brand of footy, but they’ll need to improve slightly with a fesity Crows side in town looking to improve their own top eight chances.

As it stands, Adelaide sits four points off eighth, but a pair of wins over Port and the Gold Coast suggest they might be peaking just at the right time.

The Lions will also have revenge in mind for their double-digit loss at the Adelaide Oval earlier in the year, a day they proved their own worst enemies kicking 10 goals and 18 behinds.

The Crows are a difficult team to get a read on each week, but if recent history means anything, they don’t like wearing white shorts.

Adelaide has managed only one win away from home this season, while the Crows’ last win at the Gabba came way back in 2018.

For whatever reason though, the Crows seem to perform well against teams ranked above them on the ladder – particularly those in the top four.

Adelaide has covered in seven straight games against top-four opponents, so if the Lions are off in front of goal, this might turn into a finals-like cracker.

Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90

The two most in-form teams in the competition meet at the ‘G, both sporting impressive recent win streaks.

Wins over Port, Collingwood, and St Kilda highlight Carlton’s seven-game purple patch, an extraordinary turnaround from a club that was seemingly destined for the wilderness only two months prior.

Melbourne has also put together a tidy resume with wins over Brisbane and Adelaide recently, but last week’s first-half effort against North in Hobart did leave a bit to be desired.

A game of this magnitude warrants an even market, and punters are faced with enormous value when it comes to betting.

The Dees won by 17 when these two sides met in a low-scoring stalemate only two months earlier, but this time, Melbourne will be without recent forward convert, Harrison Petty.

Petty’s season-ending foot injury casts further doubt over the Dees’ thin forward line, but at the same time, Melbourne does rank fourth in points scored per-game.

Scoring has also become a fun part of Carlton’s recent play, the Blues playing with some slick ball movement and consistent handball chains to get the ball forward to Charlie Curnow and the much-improved, Jesse Motlop.

The last four games between these two have all gone Under the Total, but with the Dees ranked first in turnovers this year, Carlton to win in a high-scoring game looks a decent play.

Tip: Back Carlton to Win & Over 167.5 Total Points @ $4.25

Freo fans might be left wondering what could have been when the season is all said and done.

A chance to keep their slim finals pulse alive went begging in a narrow three-point loss to Brisbane last week, the Dockers rallying a late comeback, only to fall just short over the final minute.

There is a scenario where Fremantle still plays finals, but it has to start with a thorough beatdown over rivals West Coast this week.

Justin Longmuir’s side took care of business in a 41-point win during the first Derby back in April, and after matching one of the top flag contenders for four quarters last week, it’s no surprise to find the Dockers firmly favoured.

On the other side, the Eagles did give Essendon all they could handle, but after suffering double-digit defeats in three of the last four editions of the Derby, it’s hard to get excited about West Coast’s chances.

It sounds as though Dom Sheed is unlikely to play again this season with a foot injury, which is hardly what the Eagles need against a stingy defensive side like Fremantle.

If the Dockers can build on their last fortnight and continue to punish teams in terms of pressure, they should be looking at their ninth win of the year.

Tip: West Coast Under 71.5 Total Points @ $1.83

The Hawks head south to the Apple Isle beaming with confidence after winning their grand final last week against top-of-the-table Collingwood.

Anthony Hudson said it best when he described the Hawks as “simply stunning” at the final siren, the Hawks dominating through the centre and punishing the Pies on the scoreboard with their unsocial, aggressive brand of footy.

For a team that was favoured to win the wooden spoon, the Hawks now own a pair of wins over current top four sides – a worrying sign for a Bulldogs team up next on their war path.

As it stands, the Dogs occupy sixth on the ladder, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to get a read on Luke Beveridge’s club.

Two wins from their last five stands out on paper, made even more glaring by the fact both victories came against out-of-form Essendon and Richmond.

Not to sound like a broken record, but kicking straight is the deciding factor for the Dogs.

When they’re accurate, they can pile on points in a hurry – just ask the Tigers. But if they have another difficult time finding accuracy, the Hawks are more than capable of making them pay.

With some rain about on Saturday in Launceston, and a low of just 1-degree expected, this could be a difficult day for the Dogs in their return to Tassie.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+13.5 Points) @ $1.90

Back-to-back losses to the Dees and Dogs suddenly has the Tigers staring down the barrel of missing finals.

A month ago, Richmond appeared one of the more dangerous teams on the fringe of the eight, but after falling behind early last week by nine goals, fill-in coach Andrew McQualter has some sudden problems to solve.

The Saints are far from the complete package themselves, but another win should be enough to guarantee a finals spot.

St Kilda was exposed last week by a more resilient Carlton outfit, holding the Blues to a low score, but really struggling to move the ball forward in the second half through the midfield.

Winning the clearances has also been a huge problem area for both clubs, one that cost the Saints dearly down the stretch last week.

Head-to-head, the Tigers have won three of their last five against St Kilda – including a comfortable 20-point win earlier in June – but plenty has changed since then.

Neither side has been particularly profitable on the back of a loss this year, while both rank towards the bottom in terms of points scored.

That said, the Over has saluted in their last two meetings, and the scoreboard could be impacted greatly with Max King back for the Saints, and Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, and Maurice Rioli returning for the Tigers.

Tip: Over 164.5 Total Points @ $1.88

The AFL may have saved the best for last this week with a pivotal top eight battle set between Port Adelaide and GWS.

Ten points still separate 4th from 5th, but in terms of confidence, four consecutive losses has cast enormous question marks over the legitimacy of Port’s chances come finals.

Injuries to Scott Lycett and Charlie Dixon haven’t helped matters, but on paper, it’s clear the Power aren’t playing with the same run through the middle of the ground that we came to fear earlier in the year.

Things won’t get any easier this week against the Giants, a side that had put together seven wins on the trot before last week’s 11-point to defeat to the rival Swans.

GWS has arguably been one of the toughest sides to score against over the last two months, while up forward, the Giants still rank fourth in inside 50 entries – much to the delight of Toby Greene.

Adam Kingsley’s men prevailed in Adelaide only a month ago over the Crows, so this trip south of the border won’t worry them.

For a team that was labeled one of the most dangerous only a fortnight ago, it’s worth forgiving last week’s loss – especially with the Power lacking confidence and scoring in recent weeks.

Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $1.90

2022

We’ve reached the business end of the season with just two weeks left to play out.

A spot in the top-eight hangs in the balance for the Saints on Friday night when they battle the Lions at Marvel, while the Dogs face similar circumstances on Saturday against rivals GWS.

Carlton is desperately clinging for life inside the eight as they head into Saturday’s game against Melbourne without skipper Patrick Cripps, followed by another huge Sunday afternoon game between the Swans and the red-hot Pies.

There’s still plenty at stake, and our best bets for a huge Round 22 can be found here.

The Saints are still a big chance at playing finals, but it feels like they’re doing everything in their power to miss out entirely.

Last week’s loss to the Cats has left St Kilda two points adrift of Richmond for a spot in the eight, and they aren’t about to find things any easier on Friday night against a Lions outfit with just as much to play for.

Brisbane ran out comfortable 33-point winners over Carlton last Sunday at the Gabba, but head coach Chris Fagan knows his side still has plenty to work on after nearly letting a healthy lead slip late in the fourth quarter.

The Saints have some injury concerns to address this week with Dan Hannebery exiting early against Geelong, while recent history isn’t exactly on their side, either.

St Kilda has lost three in a row to Brisbane dating back to 2020, their most recent meeting occurring back in Round 13 in a game that saw Joe Daniher kick three goals and Lachie Neale finish with 37 touches.

As we saw last week when they gave up 17 goals to Geelong, the Saints have obvious issues down back, which spells potential disaster against a potent Lions forward line playing with a top-four spot in mind.

Finding points on a consistent basis has been a huge problem for Brett Ratten’s side all year, largely due to their lack of inside 50 entries.

For a season that has been more down than up, this might be lights out for the Sainters.

Tip: Back Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.15

The Dogs hardly resembled a finals team in last week’s 17-point loss to the Dockers, but they still find themselves a strong chance at making the eight with two games to play.

Luke Beveridge knows his side has to win out from here, but with a much better percentage compared to St Kilda and a couple of favourable games coming up, there’s plenty of reason for optimism.

The Dogs and the Giants have plenty of history against one another that dates back to their famous Elimination Final back in 2019.

GWS got the upper-hand that day on their way to the Grand Final, but the Dogs have had the last laugh winning their last three encounters, all by double digits.

The Giants did look much-improved last week in their win over the Bombers as they dominated inside 50 on both ends of the ground.

Still, it’s hard to read too much into a win against a bottom club, while you also have to factor in GWS’ 1-4 record in Melbourne this year.

The Dogs had their opportunities last week against Fremantle but simply failed to find targets when it mattered most. They were also outnumbered at various stages in the fourth term, a problem they shouldn’t have against a much weaker defensive side this week.

With their season well and truly on the line this time, expect the Bulldogs to respond.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-28.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Crows have given it everything they’ve got in recent weeks as they and end the season on a high note.

Back-to-back wins over Carlton and West Coast has given fans a glimpse into the future under Matthew Nicks, and a third straight win would be well-deserving for a club that has spent plenty of time in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the last fortnight.

To their credit, North but up another good fight against the Swans last week before things got a little ugly in the fourth quarter.

The Roos will also have their sights set on bigger and better things next year, which should help distract them from the fact they’ve lost three in a row to Adelaide dating back to last season.

Winning at the Adelaide Oval is tough at the best of times, particularly against a Crows team that has applied tremendous pressure in recent weeks.

Nicks’ side still leads the league in tackles, and with goals suddenly coming rather easily, it’s hard to fade the home side in what could be a late statement game.

Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (-31.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Hawks put a final line through Gold Coast’s finals hopes last week in Tassie, but the Suns will still relish the role of playing spoiler this week against a Geelong side that almost looks destined for a spot in the Grand Final.

The Cats extended their winning streak to 11 with a comfortable win over St Kilda at GMHBA, a game that saw the Cats kick 17 goals, three belonging to Tom Hawkins and Isaac Smith each.

Geelong’s ball movement and ability to find targets inside 50 has been phenomenal as the season has worn on, and although the Suns have proven a tough team to beat at Metricon this year, it’s hard to see them matching the Cats for a full four quarters.

To their credit, the Suns did mount a strong fight back against Hawthorn last week, but the damage was already done as they found themselves trailing by 21-point at half-time.

A similar first half won’t fly against a class side like Geelong, and given the Cats have won five in a row over the Suns dating back to 2015, it’s hard to see any kind of upset unfolding.

Tip: Back Geelong 40+ @ $3.10

Another big crowd is expected at the ‘G on Saturday night as the Dees and Blues meet with plenty at stake.

Melbourne’s top four hopes took a direct hit following week’s nail-biting loss to Collingwood, one that highlighted how vulnerable the reigning premiers are against a team that can bring the pressure for a full four quarters.

As for the Blues, there’s even more on the line with their finals chances suddenly in serious doubt.

Back to back losses to Adelaide and Brisbane has left Michael Voss’ side on the brink of the eight, and there’s even more to worry about off the field with superstar skipper Patrick Cripps in some trouble with the tribunal following last week’s bump on Callum Ah Chee.

It’s been a good five years since Carlton last beat Melbourne, and it’s hard to see that streak coming to an end unless the Blues fix some of their glaring issues in a hurry.

Carlton has been awful around the stoppages over the last month, particularly when it comes to centre clearances – an area they were dominated in against the Lions last week.

Winning contested footy has also been a problem for the Blues, which obviously spells big trouble against a class team like the Dees.

If there’s been one constant over the last 12 months, it’s been Melbourne bouncing back from a previous loss.

A lot depends on the status of Cripps, but with the wheels suddenly falling off at Carlton, it’s hard to see the Demons losing two in a row.

Tip: Back the Dees 1-39 @ $1.92

The final Western Derby of the season will have a slightly different feel to it this week with superstar full forward Josh Kennedy now retired.

The big man rode into the sunset with an eight-goal bag in last week’s loss to the Crows, giving the Dockers one less problem to worry about as they try and mount a late charge towards the top four.

After struggling in wet conditions against Melbourne a week earlier, the Dockers bounced back in emphatic style with a convincing win over the Bulldogs.

Freo’s defensive game plan was back in full swing as they held the Dogs to just 78 points, a performance they’ll try and replicate again this week after holding West Coast to just seven goals when they met earlier in the year.

It’s been a tough season for Adam Simpson’s side and you wouldn’t blame for the Eagles for counting down the days until it’s done.

As for Fremantle, a win (and results going their way) could be enough to vault them back inside the top four with another favourable game coming up next week against the Giants in Canberra.

The Dockers do have further concerns surrounding Matt Taberner after he failed to finish last week’s game, but with points coming easily against West Coast, this still shapes up as a comfortable afternoon for Freo.

Tip: Back the Dockers 40+ @ $1.98

Last week’s impressive road win over Port Adelaide was enough to vault Richmond back inside the top eight, and there’s plenty for Damien Hardwick to feel confident about with his side having already beaten the Hawks earlier in the season.

The Tigers ran out comfortable 23-point winners against the Hawks back in Round 9, a game that saw Tom Lynch kick four goals and Dion Prestia enjoy a big day through the midfield.

Lynch has played a big role down the stretch for Richmond, but the Tigers have also been aided by some strong goal-kicking form from Shai Bolton.

The Hawks have nothing left to play for at this point, but they’d like nothing more than to knock off a serious finals contender with an eye towards next year.

Hawthorn held on for a narrow win over the Gold Coast last week in Launceston, largely thanks to a five-goal bag from Jack Gunston.

The star forward has been on fire over the last few weeks and has played a big role in helping the Hawks win four of their last five games.

Form like that warrants respect, but it’s hard to say the likes of Adelaide, West Coast, North, St Kilda, and the Gold Coast are the same caliber opponent as Richmond right now.

The Tigers have won six of their last 10 against Hawthorn, and with a chance to really sew up a place inside the eight, it’s hard to see Richmond dropping this game.

Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-19.5 Points) @ $2.00

Another Sunday afternoon blockbuster is on the cards, this time from Sydney between two serious flag contenders.

The Swans fought off a feisty North Melbourne side last week thanks to some Buddy Franklin magic, a performance that has kept the Swans inside the top four for another round.

Sydney has strung together five wins on the trot, but this is another test entirely against a Collingwood outfit that continued its fairytale run to the finals with an 11^th straight win over Melbourne last week.

All 11 of those wins have come by the narrowest of margins, but there’s been plenty to like about Collingwood’s fourth quarter resolve, as well as their outstanding defensive pressure when the game is on the line.

The Swans are rightful favourites heading into this game given their 8-2 record at the SCG this year, but it’s fair to say the Bloods have enjoyed a cruisy few weeks against the Crows, Giants, and Roos.

At the same time, one has to wonder if Collingwood’s luck will run out eventually, which makes this game even tougher to bet on.

Looking at the trends, the last five meetings have all gone Under the Total, and we might be in for a similar result given both sides rank 2^nd and 3^rd in tackles.

Tip: Under 168.5 Points @ $1.88

The Bombers and Port have been two of the most disappointing sides this year after both qualifying for the finals only 12 months ago.

Errant goal-kicking and struggles around the stoppages saw the Dons fall 27 points shy of the Giants last week, while the Power were also ordinary in similar areas against Richmond at home.

The Power walked away 16-point winners when these two sides met back in Round 11, but it’s hard to read too much into that game given how inconsistent both sides have been.

Port has won only two games on the road this season, but it’s worth noting the Power have won four straight over the Bombers dating back to 2019.

The potential inclusion of Connor Rozee should strengthen the Power midfield, and with a strong 6-0 record at the line in their last six games at Marvel, Port looks a good bet to keep this close.

Tip: Back the Power to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $2.00

2021

The fate of several clubs will be decided this week as we enter the second-last round before the finals.

The Giants and Tigers square off on Friday night in a crucial battle between 8th and 10th, while there’s plenty on the line for the likes of St Kilda, Brisbane and Sydney on Saturday in their respective games.

Sunday’s Western Derby will decide the season for Fremantle, while a West Coast win would help the Eagles move one step closer to cementing their spot in the eight.

Better late than never, our AFL Round 22 Preview has you covered with all our best bets below!

The Giants and Tigers were two of the biggest winners to emerge from Round 21, setting up what is sure to be a hard-fought battle on Friday night at Marvel.

Greater Western Sydney’s rousing win over the Cats in Geelong last week has left them in firm control of their finals destiny from here on out, while the Tigers still have a pulse thanks to a blowout win over North Melbourne.

Richmond has opened -9.5 point favourites in betting, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding star Giants forward Toby Greene.

GWS is set to appeal his two-match suspension for last week’s elbow on Patrick Dangerfield, and if successful, it wouldn’t be surprising if the odds swing closer to even money.

There’s no denying the Tigers looked sharp last week in their win over North, but it’s difficult to read too much into a win over the bottom dwellers.

GWS, meanwhile, has been playing some very strong footy of late, mixing a pair of wins over Geelong and Essendon with a two respectable efforts against Port Adelaide and Sydney over the last month.

The Giants are also set to receive a boost on attack with Josh Kelly and Jesse Hogan a chance to play, while Stephen Coniglio and Jacob Hopper could also provide some much-needed experience.

Richmond has the runs (and a premiership) on the board over GWS, but since this is basically a ‘win or go home’ scenario for both clubs, it’s easier to feel confident in the Giants with a little insurance.

Tip: Back GWS to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $2.00

The fresh Tasmanian air might be just what the doctor ordered for the Bulldogs.

A sloppy fourth quarter proved costly against the Bombers last week as the Dogs now find themselves two points adrift from the minor premiership.

Fortunately, there’s still enough time for the Bulldogs to leapfrog Melbourne and return to the top of the table, but this week’s clash against a fiery Hawthorn side looks far from a given.

Winners of two straight, Hawthorn has been playing with a renewed sense of urgency and vigour ever since the Alastair Clarkson bombshell rocked the footy world.

The Hawks have combined to score 29 goals across their last two games in Tassie, lifting them well clear of the dreaded wooden spoon with two games to play.

Luke Beveridge can rest a little easier knowing his side has thumped the Hawks in their last two meetings, but this still shapes as an interesting period for the Dogs after star forward Josh Bruce suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.

The Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 following a previous loss over the last 12 months, so the chances of them losing this game seem low.

That said, the Dogs haven’t won against the Hawks in Tassie since 2008, so the +24.5 about Hawthorn is an appealing bet given the form they’ve shown in recent weeks.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+24.5 Points) @ $1.90

The never-say-die Saints will be hoping to pick off another serious flag contender following last week’s stunning blowout over the Swans.

St Kilda’s pressure was enormous as they snapped a three-game skid to keep their season alive, a game plan Brett Ratten will be hoping his side can execute again on Saturday against Geelong.

Almost in reverse, the Cats had their five-game winning streak snapped against the Giants after getting off to an uncharacteristically slow start.

Geelong never really made their way back from a three-goal quarter-time deficit, but there is good news on the injury front with Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield both a chance to play this week.

Fans of the Saints can attest to how unpredictable they’ve been this season, so it’s no real surprise to find them as +25.5 point underdogs on the road in Geelong.

The status of Cameron and Dangerfield will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game, but if both play, you have to fancy Geelong to bounce back.

The Cats are 6-1 over the last calendar year on the back of a loss, while they’ve also won five straight over the Saints dating back to 2017.

St Kilda’s shoddy kicking proved costly against the Cats when they met back in Round 9 as Geelong carved them up through the midfield.

If Chris Scott’s top two starts play, we might see a similar story unfold.

Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.00

The top spot on the ladder is still very much in the realm of possibility for Port Adelaide with two games remaining.

Now riding a four-game winning streak following last week’s thrilling Showdown win over the Crows, the Power set their sights on the hapless Blues looking to further cement their spot in the top four.

Carlton has nothing left to play for at this point other than the coaching future of David Teague.

The Blues still stood a chance at the eight before last week’s blowout loss to the Suns, bringing an end to yet another lost season for a team that hasn’t played finals since 2013.

To make matters worse, Carlton fans won’t even be able to celebrate Coleman Medal favourite Harry McKay after the star forward suffered a shoulder injury last week.

The big man’s absence will be felt immensely this week, particularly after Port manhandled the Blues by 28 points when they met back in April.

With Carlton down on confidence and motivation, this game really isn’t worth overcomplicating.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-31.5 Points) @ $1.90

Brisbane still holds top four aspirations if they win out from here, but they’ll also be eager to hold off the Swans and finish fifth on the table.

Collingwood has little left to play for at this point other than bragging rights over one of their long-term rivals.

The Pies were no match for the runaway Hawks last week in Tassie, while they won’t hold particularly fond memories of the Lions after their one-point loss on the siren back in Round 3.

The jury is still out on whether Brisbane is a genuine premiership contender, but they did look good in their blowout win over Freo last week thanks to a huge four-goal game from Joe Daniher.

Collingwood gave up plenty of goals last week to the Hawks, so there are some danger signs about for the Pies if Brisbane’s forward line turns up to play.

Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line

A game against the cellar dwellers couldn’t have come at a better time for the Swans as they look to make one last push for the top four.

Sydney’s chances were dampened last week in a blowout loss to St Kilda, but from a betting perspective, this does set up one of the most profitable plays of the entire season.

The Swans have covered the line in nine of their last 11 games following a previous loss, while they’ve also won three straight over the Shinboners dating back to 2018.

Callum Mills is a chance at playing after being ruled out last week with an achilles problem.

Outside of him, the Swans remain one of the healthiest sides in the competition, which should come in handy with finals right around the corner.

On their day, North has shown they are capable of causing an upset over anyone, but the fact they’ve managed less than 10 goals in their last two games is cause for concern against a Sydney outfit that has no problem scoring.

Given the trends and recent history between these two sides, look for the Swans to make a statement.

Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-18.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Crows and the Dees meet for the second time on Sunday, and if it’s anything like their meeting earlier in May, we should be in for a treat.

Adelaide won a controversial one-point thriller that day at the Adelaide Oval, but it’s fair to say things have taken a drastic turn since then.

The Crows come into this game with only two wins from their last 10 games, while the Dees have surged back to the top of the table following two key wins over the Suns and Eagles.

The line has been set a -41.5 points in favour of Melbourne, which looks about right when you consider how many scoring chances the Dees have generated in recent weeks.

Melbourne has combined for 28 goals in its last two games, but the fact they’ve also kicked 32 behinds during that time frame suggests how dominant their attack could be.

Tom McDonald looks a good chance to return this week from a back injury, while the Crows’ list has only gotten weaker with Matt Croush set to miss the remainder of the season with a groin injury.

Overall, the Dees should win this game comfortably, and it might just get out of hand if they find some accuracy in front of the sticks.

Tip: Back the Dees to Win & Over the Points Total

Essendon fans will be hoping for a result similar to last week with their season still on the line.

The Dons picked up what could be a season-defining victory over the Bulldogs in blowout fashion – a win that is sure to motivate Ben Rutten’s men with a finals spot still up for grabs.

The Suns will relish the chance at spoiling the party, much like they did last week when they put a final line through Carlton’s season.

These two side haven’t met this year, but it’s worth noting the last two contests have been very close affairs.

The Suns and Bombers drew last year in a thriller at Metricon, while the year before the Bombers prevailed by only 10 points.

Essendon was very impressive last week in the fourth quarter where they outscored the Dogs by three goals.

The Suns have enough talent on the park to keep this game close, but their tendency to fade in the final term does make them a risky betting play.

With everything to play for and a perfect 7-0 record as the favourite against the Suns, it’s hard to fade the Bombers this week.

Tip: Back Essendon 1-39

The 53rd Derby between Freo and West Coast gets underway on Sunday, and there’s a chance we might get a full house.

As far as the finals are concerned, this is a huge game with both clubs still looking a genuine chance.

West Coast can cement their spot with a 12th straight win over the Dockers, while Freo could potentially move inside the eight if results go their way.

The status of Josh Kennedy is still up in the air after the big man played through a knee injury last week, but given their track record against Freo over the years, it’s very hard to fade West Coast in this spot.

The absence of Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters was felt enormously last week in the Dockers’ blowout loss to the Lions, and there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the back line to cope with this talented West Coast forward line, either.

West Coast has won the last three Derby’s by 30 points or more and they also own a strong 8-4 record on the back of a loss.

There’s definitely scope for the Eagles to improve on last week’s nine-point loss to the Demons, and the Dockers look to be the perfect prey.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.90

2019

All eyes will be on the top four this week as the Lions and the Cats kick off a huge Round 22 of action from the Gabba.

Brisbane’s impressive winning streak is on the line as they look to down the AFL ladder leaders, while the stakes are also high on Sunday afternoon between Tigers and the reigning premiers from the ‘G.

The top eight is far from set, leaving the Bombers, Crows, Dogs, Power and Hawks all facing crucial win-now scenarios.

It’s safe to expect a handful of upsets this week, so be sure to read our complete 2019 AFL Round 22 Preview below.

It’s a bit of a Friday fizzer, but with both sides looking to end the season on a high note, this cellar-dweller clash could produce a few fireworks.

The Demons had their chances during last week’s 17-point loss to Collingwood, but the same old story – wayward goalkicking – cost the Dees a chance.

Things weren’t quite as clear cut for the Swans during their 47-point loss to the Power. Sydney fought hard in the first quarter but managed only three goals between half time and the final siren.

These two sides met back in Round 4 at the SCG, a game the Demons won comfortably by 22-points. Nathan Jones chipped in with three goals, helping the Dees race away in the final quarter.

Considering both sides are looking to snap lengthy losing streaks though, don’t be surprised if this one turns out close. The Swans and the Dees both rank Top 10 in goals and inside ‘50s allowed to opponents, so instead of backing a straight-up winner, stick with the Margin market.

Tip: Either Team to Win by Less than 15.5 Points @ $2.50

There might be nothing more than bragging rights on the line, but this is still a huge game for two sides looking towards the future.

St. Kilda open as the early favourites following last week’s thrilling three-point win over the Dockers. The Saints have won five straight over the Blues dating back to 2016, but in case you’ve missed it, the Blues are no easy beats with the season winding down.

Carlton has now lost two straight games, but there was plenty to take away from last week’s loss to the Tigers. Losing by only 28-points to a premiership favourite is a win in itself, especially after heading into halftime with only one goal to their name.

Despite their horror run against the Saints, there’s plenty of reasons to find confidence in the Blues this week. Surprisingly, Carlton ranks seventh in the competition in points for at the MCG, which could spell trouble against a Saints side allowing the third-most goals in the competition.

The Blues also hold a strong 7-4 record as the line underdog at home this year. It’s only slim, but considering you’re getting the same value at the line as you would head-to-head, it’s worth staying safe.

Tip: Carlton to Cover the Line (+1.5) @ $1.90

Game of the round, and maybe even game of the season. This top of the table clash should tell us everything we need to know heading into the finals, and despite Geelong sitting on top, it’s the Lions who head into Saturday’s game as the home-field favourite.

The Gabba has become a fortress-like it was in the early 2000s as the Lions have lost only one game at home all year. Last week’s 91-point win over the Suns sent a message to the rest of the competition, and with an eight-game winning streak on the line, it’s certainly difficult to fade Chris Fagan’s side.

Geelong’s form since the bye has been questionable, but the Cats got back on track last week with a 55-point win over North at home. To their credit, the Cats also know how to handle the Lions at the Gabba having won four of their last five trips to Brisbane.

This one should boil down to the midfield, an area both sides continue to dominate. Accuracy in front of goal is also paramount as both sides rank top two in average goals this season.

The Gabba has been sold out for a week ahead of this clash, but we’ve seen Brisbane disappoint the home fans once already this year. Against Collingwood on Easter Thursday, a packed house at the Gabba watched the Lions lose by 62-points to the Pies.

It’s doubtful Brisbane loses by a wide margin on Saturday, but with expectations high, there’s every chance an experienced and mature Geelong side gets the better of them.

Tip: Geelong to Win @ $2.05

Collingwood’s season received a shot in the arm last week as the Pies recorded a much-needed win over the Demons.

They’ll now travel to Adelaide to face the Crows on Saturday, a team that continues to flirt with the fringes of the top eight.

The Crows came up 10-points short to West Coast last week, but they certainly gave the reigning premiers a scare away from home.

Now, Adelaide looks to accomplish something they haven’t done since 2016: defeat Collingwood.

This game shapes up as a bit of a coin flip. On one hand, home-field advantage makes the Crows the rightful favourites, but with five home losses to their name at Adelaide Oval this year, anything goes.

Collingwood, on the other hand, remains a mystery. Two cheap wins over the Suns and Dees count for very little, especially this time of year. And with Adelaide pushing for a spot back inside the eight, you can expect the Crows to come out firing.

To their credit, the Pies do deserve the benefit of the doubt away from home. Collingwood is 3-1 outside of Melbourne this year, and with the Crows choosing to live dangerously by not tagging opposing teams’ star players, they might just pay a heavy price against what is still a very talented midfield.

Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Adelaide/Collingwood

A 47-point win over the Swans last week was enough to ensure the Power a spot back inside the eight, but Ken Hinkley’s squad can’t afford to take their finger off the pulse with two rounds remaining.

North Melbourne managed only 14-points during their trip to The Cattery last week, a new all-time low for a club that had shown so much pose under new head coach Rhyce Shaw the week prior.

The Power will head to Marvel full of confidence knowing they’ve won five straight over North dating back to 2015. Even so, they need to take this game seriously knowing the Roos haven’t lost at home in close to two months.

It appears even the bookies aren’t convinced on Port right now, especially with a 5-5 record as the favourite over the last 12-months.

Likewise, North has been equally poor going 3-10 as the underdog during the same time frame.

The Power are yet to string together three straight wins this season, while North are 5-6 on the back of a previous loss.

With all that in mind, you’re best off avoiding this one.

Tip: No Bet

Essendon’s season has hit a big-time snag as the Bombers look to recover from a pair of disappointing losses.

The Dons have plenty of injury issues to overcome, but there was no excuse for last week’s mental lapse against the Bulldogs in what was supposed to be the biggest game of the round.

Another loss for the Bombers this week could put a line through their finals hopes, and although it would take a miracle, Fremantle still has their eye on replacing them inside the eight.

The last time Essendon defeated Fremantle in Perth was 2013, and since then, their most recent meetings have turned into relatively close affairs.

These two sides met back in Round 9, a game the Bombers won by seven-points at Marvel. While we’re talking trends though, it’s worth noting Fremantle’s last three home games against the Bombers have also gone Over the Total.

Tip: Over 154.5 Points @ $1.80

The Tigers have now won seven on the trot as they prepare to host West Coast in a massive top four battle on Sunday afternoon.

Richmond’s 28-point win over the Blues got the job done last week, but you can expect Damien Hardwick to address his sides flat second-half effort that allowed the Blues to keep the scoreboard respectable.

West Coast survived a close shave against Adelaide at home last week to earn their fourth straight win in a row. The Eagles led at the end of each quarter but were demolished in the disposal count as the Crows had everything their own way through midfield.

The stakes this week are high in what could turn out to be a finals preview. A win for West Coast will see them into outright second on the ladder, while a Richmond victory would only further widen the gap between themselves and fifth-place Collingwood.

These two sides met during Round 9 last year, a game West Coast won by 47-points in Perth. On the flip side, the Eagles’ last win at the MCG over the Tigers came back in 2015.

The forward battle is key for either side on Sunday as both rank top five in average goals-per-game. Jack Darling has also been lethal against the Tigers slotting 13 goals in his last five games against Richmond.

From a trends perspective, West Coast is 3-2 as the underdog against the line this season – compared to Richmond, who are 1-1 as the home favourite against West Coast.

Ever since the Grand Final, West Coast has saved some of its best performance for the MCG, which makes the line the safest play. This is a big test for both clubs, which means it should be close.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Bulldogs’ 55-point win over Essendon last week has put the pressure on several teams this week.

If the Power and Crows both lose, Luke Beveridge’s side will find themselves back inside the top eight with one game remaining. Should the Dogs lose though, they might find themselves out of finals contention for good.

The stakes are also high for the Giants this week as they hope to make up for a very uninspiring performance against the Hawks at home.

In snowy conditions, GWS managed only four goals in their 56-point loss, making a spot back inside the top four impossible with only two games remaining.

These two sides met only once last year in Canberra, a game the Giants dominated winning 133-51. GWS has won three straight now over the Dogs, but as the Bombers found out the hard way last week, the Westerners mean business.

After a wayward start to the season, the Bulldogs have really stepped up on attack during the second half of the season. The Dogs now rank second in inside ’50s and seventh in goals scored this year, which should put the pressure on the Giants.

Betting wise, the Dogs are 9-3 as the underdog against the line over the last 12 months and 5-3 away from home. The bookies have set a very slim line this week, but when you factor in the recent form of each side, it’s hard to imagine this one not being close.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

There are plenty of storylines to watch on Sunday afternoon, but there’s still plenty on the line for the Hawks in terms of finals.

Hawthorn’s huge win over the Giants last week leaves them within reach of the eight, and if results go their way, there’s still a chance they could sneak into September.

With Jarryd Roughead playing his final game, there should be added motivation for the Hawks to put on a show. Hawthorn defeated the Suns by 53-points when they met last year, and with Gold Coast struggling for goals, you can expect a similar margin this time around.

The line has been set at -47 points, which looks to be the only value play available. The Suns have lost two from three at Marvel this year, while the Hawks also own five 40+ point wins over the Suns.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (-47.5 Points) @ $1.90

2018

The 2018 AFL season just keeps on delivering!

Richmond and the West Coast Eagles look to have sewn up the top two, but every other position in the top eight is up for grabs and there are still a stack of teams left in finals contention.

Just about every game this weekend will have some form of finals consequences and our complete 2018 AFL Round 22 tips can be found below.

Don’t for one second think this game doesn’t mean something to the Bombers.

Essendon’s finals hopes might be over, but the Dons will be looking to end their season on a high note by knocking off the reigning premiers at the G’.

Both sides recorded blowout victories last week over the Suns and Saints, but it’s safe to say this one should be much closer… right?

Last time we did this, Richmond walked away with a 71-point victory back in Round 11.

Sure, Essendon are a much sharper side right now, but the Bombers’ record against the Tigers says it all: they haven’t won a game against the yellow and black since 2014.

The forwards battle will be huge this week, and Orazio Fantasia’s match up against Alex Rance should provide plenty of excitement.

Down the other end, Jack Riewoldt sits just five goals short of 600, and after kicking 10 last week against the Suns, he’s every chance of jotting his name down in Richmond’s record books.

The biggest problem the Bombers faced last time out was Shane Edwards.

The gun half-forward racked up 31 disposals and a pair of goals earlier in June, and after a quiet week against the Suns, Friday nights game might be tailor-made for a bounce back performance.

Tip: Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-23.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Richmond 40+, Dustin Martin 29+ Disposals, 150 or Below Total Match Points

Both of these sides were put to the sword last week, but it was Port who came out worse for wear.

The Power’s four-point loss to the Eagles has now sent them spiraling towards the bottom of the eight, and with two tough games against Collingwood and Essendon to close out the season, finals might be in doubt.

Speaking of the ladder, Collingwood jumped back up to fifth after seeing off the Lions at Etihad last week.

The baby Brisbane side gave the Magpies a scare however, trailing by only a handful of points at half time.

The good news for Port here is their record at the MCG.

The Power have defeated the Pies during their last two trips to the home of footy, and have also won six of their last seven games against Collingwood.

The bad news, though, is Jordan de Goey is back.

The Pies’ star full-forward booted a four goal bag against the Lions last week, and looks to have brought back the flare Collingwood was missing during his absence.

Since all four of Port’s most recent losses have come by a narrow margin, it’s safe to assume this game will be close. The Power hold the advantage in the midfield, but their inability to close out the fourth quarter over the last few weeks is alarming.

Fortunately for Port, Collingwood are so-so in the final terms themselves, but the loss of Charlie Dixon is a huge out for the Power.

That only delights Collingwood’s depleted back line, and it should also delight Pies fans on Saturday as they win a close one.

Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.00

Same Game Multi: Collingwood 1-39, Over 149.5 Total Points, Jordan de Goey 2+ Goals

It’s not doomsday just yet for the Cats, but it’s getting pretty close.

Even though they fought back to be within a 10-points, last week was nothing short of ordinary from Geelong.

The Cats struggled to hold Hawthorn down in the midfield, which resulted in Hawthorn winning the inside fifty count and more importantly, the game.

Now sitting ninth on the ladder, Geelong not only need to win out, they need other results to go their way.

Since the ladder is so tight, a game against Fremantle couldn’t have come at a better time -a blowout here at home would surely boost the Cats’ percentage and give them a nice chance to play through September.

Fremantle know all about blowout wins, notching one themselves over Carlton last week.

The Dockers have been poor in Melbourne this year though, and as so many teams have found out, GMHBA Stadium is no place for the bottom four clubs to earn a win this season.

One of the biggest problems the Cats will be working on this week is goal accuracy.

Tom Hawkins had every chance to beat the Hawks himself last week, but he kicked just one goal from his four set shots.

It’s unlikely Chris Scott singles out individual players, but the Cats also need Joel Selwood to fire.

The future Hall of Famer managed just 18 disposals during last weeks loss while Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett combined for 71.

Still, this is the game the Cats needed, and if they can get all their stars on the same page for a change, this should be if nothing else, a confidence boosting win.

Tip: Over 156.5 Points @ $1.85

Same Game Multi: Geelong 40+, Patrick Dangerfield Over 29.5 Disposals, Joel Selwood Over 29.5 Disposals, Gary Ablett To Kick a Goal

The Sydney Derby hasn’t always lived up to expectations, but it’s safe to say this one will.

After looking doubtful for finals, the Swans now look like one of the most dangerous teams in the eight.

They’ll need to keep winning from here if they wish to hold their position mind you, but last weeks win over Melbourne taught us one thing: don’t count this team out.

The Giants can also relate to coming back from the dead.

GWS looked toast six weeks ago, but all of a sudden the Giants have won five on the trot.

Sitting third on the ladder, this game holds huge ladder implications for Leon Cameron’s side.

A loss could see GWS slip as low as sixth, but a win could put the Giants just two points away from second place West Coast.

This game is a tough one to get a read on, especially after Sydney’s recent return to form.

The injury to Alex Johnson last week has probably given the Swans added incentive to make the finals, but Jeremy Cameron’s two goal bag last week sets us up for a big battle between himself and Buddy Franklin.

Since Sydney have won the last two encounters between these two by comfortable margins, side with the Swans at the line this week.

Back Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Swans To Win, Under 165.5 Total Points

One day the QClash might hold finals implications, but for now, this game should still be plenty of fun.

The Lions played a strong first half last week against Collingwood, trailing by only a matter of points at the main break.

Not for the first time though, Brisbane’s strong pressure fell away in the second half, and so did their goal scoring opportunities.

As for the Suns, they were flat out embarrassed by the reigning premiers at home.

That much we expected, but no one saw Jack Riewoldt kicking 10 goals in a brilliant 74-point win.

This game holds nothing for the winner other than bragging rights, but that will mean a lot to either club.

Gold Coast stole a narrow win over the Lions at The Gabba back in Round 5, but Brisbane’s form since then has been nothing short of great despite just four wins on the season.

For the Lions, this is a chance to stamp themselves as the top QLD club in the competition.

After so many weeks of “close but no cigar” type efforts, Brisbane would like to finish on top of the Suns on the ladder for their own peace of mind.

In order to do that, the Lions will rely on Eric Hipwood.

Brisbane’s breakout full forward kicked three goals last time these two met, and since Dayne Beams is now in fantastic form, those two alone should give the Lions a realistic shot at taking the points.

For the Suns, the loss of Pearce Hanley is huge. In just his second game back with the club, it’s a devastating loss to a lineup already ravished by injury, and one that will ultimately cost the Suns in the midfield.

With all that in mind, everything looks set up for the Lions fifth victory of the season.

Tip: Back Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $2.12

Same Game Multi: Lions To Win, Dayne Beams 2+ Goals, Gold Coast To Win 1st Quarter 1-8

The Hawks surged into the Top 4 last week after a resounding win over the Cats.

Things got hairy in the fourth quarter, but overall, it was a game Hawthorn deserved to win after playing like the better team on the day.

St. Kilda’s misery was on full display last week against the Bombers, falling by 43-points on the primetime stage.

To make matters worse, Nathan Brown looks likely to miss the rest of the season following his nasty bump on Andrew Saad.

Hawthorn’s ability to gracefully move the ball by foot against Geelong last week was impressive.

The Hawks have come a long way since their torturous loss against the Lions a month ago down in Launceston, and if they can continue to rely on Jack Gunston and Luke Breust’s accuracy in front of goal, there’s no telling where this team might go.

St. Kilda fans wish they could say the same.

Foot skills have been shocking for the Saints all year, but last week in particular highlighted just how many position piece are missing on this team.

It’s safe to say the Saints midfield will struggle against Hawthorn, and more importantly, Brownlow Medal favourite, Tom Mitchell.

A win here will likely sure up a Top 4 finish for Hawthorn, so expect Alastair Clarkson’s side to rise to the occasion.

Tip: Back Hawthorn To Win 39+ @ $2.12

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn 1-39, Paul Puopolo 2+ Goals, Under 173.5 Total Points

A 29-point loss to the Dockers saw Carlton firm even further as the wooden spoon favourites last week.

The Blues hardly looked like winning away from home, and if it wasn’t for Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, the scoreboard would probably look a lot worse.

While Carlton faded, the Dogs stood strong.

It was a first half to forget for Luke Beveridge’s side, riddled with turnovers and inaccuracy in what looked to be a superior North Melbourne side.

What transpired in the second half, though, was nothing short of a marvelous.

The Dogs were down by 27-points at the main break, but fought back behind Dale Morris and Marcus Bontempelli to win by seven points.

It was perhaps the win of the season for the Dogs, and it’s one they can really build on heading towards Sunday’s game.

With Richmond up next, this might be the last chance for the Bulldogs to taste victory in 2018, and if they can ride this great form into Etihad, they should make it three on the trot.

Tip: Back Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-27.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-39, Jack Macrae 29.5+ Disposals, Jordan Roughead 2+ Goals

Turns out the Demons suffered two straight losses last week as news surfaced on Tuesday surrounding Jesse Hogan’s season ending foot injury.

It’s a crushing blow for Melbourne in what could turn out to be another dud season.

The Demons loss to Sydney last week now sees them down to seventh on the ladder, and as you can see, this weeks game is no gimme.

West Coast’s weekend ended on a much more positive note, taking care of the Power in Adelaide by four-points on a final siren goal thanks to Jeremy McGovern.

It was a crucial win for the Eagles with a home finals berth still uncertain, and one they can build on with a host of players still missing.

For Melbourne to win this one, they’ll need to actually kick straight.

The Dees had 28 opportunities to score a goal last week, the third most of any team in Round 21, but managed to kick just 10 goals.

It’s also worth noting that the Demons haven’t beaten any of the top nine teams this season.

That means Melbourne now has to knock off the Eagles or the Giants in the next fortnight if they stand any chance of playing finals.

Since both of these teams have so much to play for, picking a winner is probably a punters worst nightmare.

If West Coast win, they secure a home finals berth, and if Melbourne win, they should be playing come September.

Lineup wise, both sides are missing their star forwards. Josh Kennedy has been ruled out of this clash, but the loss of Hogan really depletes the goal scoring chances Melbourne have created all season.

As one of the worst disposal efficiency teams in the competition, the Demons will need to clean up their act against this West Coast midfield. Unfortunately, a road game at Optus Stadium probably isn’t the place to do it.

Tip: Back West Coast Eagles 40+ @ $4.75

Same Game Multi: Eagles 40+, Over 169.5 Total Match Points

So the Crows are finally done and dusted.

Taylor Walker’s season is now over after accepting a two game ban, and unless Adelaide can somehow take down North Melbourne without him, the Crows season will be over too.

On the same token, the same can be said for North Melbourne. The Roos hardly looked like a finals team during last weeks dismal second half effort against the Dogs, and aside from Ben Brown, there’s a handful of players that need to step up if North are to make the eight.

Just like the Crows, it might take a miracle for the Roos to beat Adelaide this week. North haven’t won in Adelaide since 2011, and it’ll take a lot more than just Brown, Majak Daw and Shaun Higgins to take down the the Crows.

The Roos have been hot and cold all season, and although the Crows have nothing but bragging rights on the line, Adelaide will be looking to give their home fans something to feel good about in their last home game of the season.

Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.15

Same Game Multi: Crows 1-39, North Melbourne To Win 1st Quarter 9-16, 150 Or Below Total Match Points

2017

There are now only two rounds left in the 2017 AFL regular season and there is still a great deal on the line.

A number of teams simply must win this weekend to keep their finals hopes alive and the jostling for positions inside the top eight is on in earnest.

There are a host of excellent betting plays to be found this weekend and below are our complete 2017 AFL Round 22 tips.

The Adelaide Crows will secure the minor premiership with a win over the Sydney Swans and they are favourites to do just that.

Adelaide produced another polished performance to get the job done against Essendon and they have not lost since they were beaten by Hawthorn in June.

The Crows have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is identical.

Sydney moved closer to a top four finish with a dominant performance against Fremantle and there is no doubt that they will be the side nobody wants to play in the AFL Finals.

The Swans have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are only a middling 2-2 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that really could go either way and it is Sydney at their current quote of $2.30 that do represent the value in this clash.

Back Sydney To Win @ $2.30

This is a massive game for both these sides.

There really is nothing between the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, but it is the Bulldogs that look set to start this clash as narrow favourites.

The Bulldogs dropped out of the top eight following their defeat at the hands of Greater Western Sydney and a loss here would make qualifying for the AFL Finals a very difficult task.

They have won 11 of their past 16 games as favourites, but they are an extremely poor 4-12 against the line when giving away a start.

Port Adelaide overcame Collingwood in what looked like a potential danger game and they can keep alive their hopes of a top four finish with a win over the Western Bulldogs.

The Power have won only two of their past seven games as underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

A major problem for Port Adelaide this season has been beating the best teams in the competition and on their day the Western Bulldogs are definitely that.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $1.90

Geelong have now all-but secured a top four finish and they can keep themselves in the hunt for the top two with a win over Collingwood.

They were without a host of big names, but Geelong still proved too strong for Richmond and it is no surprise that they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Geelong have won 13 of their past 18 games as favourites, but they are only 8-10 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood had their unbeaten run ended by Port Adelaide last weekend and they face another tough challenge against Geelong, but they will take confidence from the fact that they have won the past three games played between these two sides.

The Magpies have won three of their past ten games as underdogs for a small loss, but much more impressively they are 8-2 against the line when being given a start.

This is the type of game that Geelong have struggled in this season and Collingwood can cover the line with the start.

Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)

The West Coast Eagles currently sit in eight position, but they could find themselves as low as tenth if results don’t go their way this weekend.

Stringing together back-to-back wins has proven to be a big issue for West Coast this season, but their record away from home has been surprisingly strong.

The Eagles have won three of their five games as away underdogs for a big profit and they did give Greater Western Sydney a serious scare earlier this season.

Greater Western Sydney have got their season back on track in recent weeks and they remain an outside chance of winning the minor premiership.

The Giants have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a profit, but they are a poor 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

West Coast are capable of giving the Giants is scare if they bring their best football to Sydney and they are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 25.5 points.

Back West Coast To Beat The Line (+25.5 Points)

The Gold Coast Suns hit a new low last weekend and Essendon go into this clash as clear favourites.

The sacking of Rodney Eade did not get a response from the Suns and they were no match for the Brisbane Lions on Saturday afternoon.

Gold Coast have won three of their seven games as home underdogs this season, but it really is tough to have any faith in them based on their recent efforts.

Essendon went down to Adelaide last weekend, but this is obviously a much easier assignment.

The Bombers have won only one of their past three games as away favourites and they really have been a team that has struggled as the punter’s elect.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Hawthorn still have a mathematical chance of making the finals, but they would obviously need to beat Carlton to keep that dream alive.

The Hawks were solid against North Melbourne, but they are still a tough team to trust from a betting perspective.

They have won only four of their past eight games as favourites for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 2-6.

Carlton have lost their past eight games, but they were still far from disgraced against the West Coast Eagles.

The Blues have won six of their past 20 games as underdogs for a profit and they are an impressive 13-7 against the line in this situation.

Hawthorn have won their past 14 games against Carlton and they should win again this weekend, but the Blues are capable of beating the line with a start of over 20 points.

Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+21.5 Points)

Melbourne currently sit in seventh position on the AFL Ladder and their finals fate now rests in their own hand.

They handled the pressure to beat St Kilda in a crucial game last weekend and they are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.

Melbourne have won four of their past seven games as home favourites for a loss and they really are tough to trust against the line in this scenario – they have covered the line in only two of their past seven games as home favourites.

The Brisbane Lions returned to winning form with an excellent performance against the Gold Coast Suns and they have really played some quality football in the second half of the season.

Brisbane have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are a most impressive 8-3 against the line in this scenario.

There has been plenty to like about the way that the Brisbane Lions have played in recent weeks and they can cover the line with a start of 34.5 points.

Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+34.5 Points)

St Kilda now need plenty to go their way to have any chance of playing Finals football and a loss at the hands of North Melbourne would effectively end their season.

The Saints have won only one of their past five games, but they are still set to go into this clash with the Kangaroos as clear favourites.

St Kilda have won seven of their past nine games as favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne have won only one of their past eight games and it really isn’t in their best interests to win any more games this season.

The Kangaroos have won only three of their past 17 games as underdogs for a clear loss and they are a middling 8-9 against the line in this scenario.

These are two teams that are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

Richmond missed a golden opportunity to cement a top four finish with a win over Geelong last weekend and this clash with Fremantle does look like a danger game.

The Tigers really were poor against Geelong and this will be a real test of their mental toughness as they lost to Fremantle in heartbreaking fashion 12 months ago.

Richmond have now won only three of their past five games as away favourites, but they do have the same record against the line.

Fremantle produced one of their worst performances of the season to do down to Sydney last weekend and they have now lost four of their past five games.

The Dockers have won two of their past seven games as home underdogs for a profit, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

Richmond really should prove too strong for Fremantle and the line of 13.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.

Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)

2016

Round 22 of the 2016 AFL season starts with a Grand Final rematch between the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn – a game that we could easily see repeated during the AFL finals.

North Melbourne host the Sydney Swans in Tasmania in the pick of Saturday’s fixtures before Collingwood host the Gold Coast Suns in a rare fixture at Etihad Stadium.

The Brisbane Lions scored a famous victory over Geelong three seasons ago and will be looking to repeat the dose this weekend, while the found finishes when Essendon face the Western Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon.

The West Coast Eagles were written off by the majority of AFL experts a fortnight ago, but they will head into this Grand Final rematch as favourites following an upset victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants.

Even though they have been through a perceived form slump, West Coast have still won seven of their past eight games and remain a genuine chance of finishing in the top four.

It is no secret that West Coast have an outstanding record at Domain Stadium and they have won 12 of their past 13 games as home favourites, while they beat Hawthorn at home in the finals last year.

Hawthorn bounced back from their defeat at the hands of Melbourne to record a comfortable win over North Melbourne and they should now be able to hold on to the minor premiership.

This is just the second game that Hawthorn have started as underdogs in the past 12 months and they won both of those fixtures, while they have proven to be a profitable betting proposition away from home.

It is very difficult to split these two teams at Domain Stadium, but I have still found a value bet in this contest.

Both West Coast and Hawthorn have generally been unders teams this season and the under 170.5 points is a great bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 170.5 Points

The Sydney Swans are the new AFL Premiership favourites and are clear favourite to get the job done against North Melbourne this weekend.

Sydney were able to put away St Kilda in very dominant fashion and coach John Longmire will be hopeful that his side can maintain that level of performance heading into the AFL Finals.

The Swans have not been a flawless betting side as away favourites this season and they have dropped three games in this situation, but they are still 6-4 against the line.

North Melbourne were no match for Hawthorn last weekend and they are still a very outside chance of missing the AFL Finals.

The Kangaroos have won their past two games at Blundstone Arena, but they have generally struggled as underdogs this season and they have won just two of their past nine games as underdogs.

Sydney really should be able to get the job done in this clash, but their current price looks just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Richmond have an excellent record against St Kilda in recent seasons and they have won the past six games played between the two sides, but it is St Kilda that will start this game as favourites.

St Kilda were at the receiving end of a heavy defeat at the hands of Sydney last weekend and it is somewhat surprising that they will start this game as the punter’s elect.

In saying that, St Kilda generally do win when the market expects them to and they have won their past four games as favourites.

Richmond looked the goods for the majority of their clash with Geelong, but they gave the game away in the final quarter in the most Richmond fashion possible.

The Tigers have won just two of their past ten games as underdogs, but those two wins did occur at the MCG and their record against St Kilda is excellent.

There is evidence to suggest that both of these teams are going to be able to get the job done, but they are both tough to trust and this is another game that I am happy to ignore from a betting standpoint.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Greater Western Sydney Giants suffered a surprise loss at the hands of the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but they are dominant favourites to return to winning form this weekend.

Despite the Giants loss to West Coast, they still remain a profitable betting side in front of their home fans at Spotless Stadium and they have beaten the line in six of their past eight games at the venue.

Fremantle were very poor against Adelaide and they are now staring down the barrel of an eighth straight defeat, with sights clearly set on 2017.

The Dockers have now lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a truly dreadful 2-9 against the line in this scenario.

The line has been set at 57.5 points, but teams in the AFL are 5-2 when giving away a start of this magnitude and the Giants will be out to make a statement this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-57.5 Points)

This has been a season to forget for both these sides and neither have a great deal to play for heading into this clash.

It is Collingwood that will go into this clash as clear favourites and it is incredibly tough to trust them in this position.

The Magpies have won just two of their five games as home favourites this season for a big loss and they have lost four of their past five clashes.

Gold Coast’s season hit a new low when they suffered a shock loss at the hands of Essendon and they have proven to be one of the worst teams in the AFL this season from a betting perspective.

The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are a non-profitable 4-5 against the line in this situation.

These are two of the least trustworthy betting teams in the AFL and this is clearly a game that most AFL punters will be staying out of this clash.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Showdown is always one of the most hotly-contested games during the AFL season and this is a rare occasion where one team will start as clear favourites.

Adelaide have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they have won seven of their past eight games and are now on the third line of premiership betting markets.

The Crows are touted as Adelaide Oval specialists and that actually isn’t the case – they have won just four of their six games as home favourites and are a middling 3-3 against the line.

Port Adelaide were very poor against Melbourne and they have now lost three of their past four.

The Power have also been somewhat unconvincing at the Adelaide Oval this season and they have lost their past four games as home favourites,  while they are 1-3 against the line.

The head to head betting market looks just about right, but I have still found a betting play in the total points betting market.

Seven of the past nine games played between these two sides have gone over and with the Crows playing highly entertaining football they should be able to combine for more than 183.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 183.5 Points

Melbourne still have an outside chance of qualifying for the AFL Finals and to do that they need to win this clash in emphatic fashion.

The Demons were able to make it three wins on the trot with their comfortable victory over Port Adelaide and a repeat of that performance would be enough to see off a struggling Carlton outfit.

The problem for the Demons is that they are still an unconvincing side as favourites and they have won just four of their past eight games as the punter’s elect, while they are 3-5 against the line.

Carlton were extremely poor against the Brisbane Lions and haven’t won a game of football in two months, but there are reasons to be optimistic this weekend.

The Navy Blues have proven to be a profitable betting side across every metric as underdogs this season and their record at the MCG this season has not been bad.

Carlton have every chance of recording an upset victory over the Demons and I am more than happy to back them with a start of 21.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+21.5 Points)

The Brisbane Lions famously beat Geelong after the siren in 2013, but they have lost the past four games played between the two sides and that does not look like it will change this weekend.

The Lions were able to return to winning form against Carlton last weekend, but they face a completely different level of challenge against Geelong and it should come as no surprise that they are giving away such a big start.

Brisbane have generally saved their best form for The Gabba this season and they are now a profitable betting play as home underdogs, while they are 5-5 against the line in this scenario.

Geelong did not make it look easy, but they eventually got the job done against Richmond last weekend.

The Cats can’t afford to drop this game if they want to finish in the top four and there is evidence to suggest that this game will not be as one-sided as the betting suggests.

Geelong have won just five of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are an extremely poor 2-8 against the line.

The Lions could give the Cats somewhat of a scare in this clash and I am keen to back the underdogs with a start of 58.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Lions To Beat The Line (+58.5 Points)

Essendon recorded just their second win of the season against the Gold Coast Suns last Sunday and they will go into this clash with some confidence.

The Bombers were more than deserving of their upset win, but they have struggled to string together quality performances in back-to-back weeks.

They have now improved their record as underdogs to 3-19 – still a big loss – and they are actually 4-3 against the line at Etihad Stadium.

The Western Bulldogs scored a narrow victory over Collingwood last weekend – showing plenty of toughness to do so – and they continue to be a positive betting side.

They have won 11 of their past 14 games as favourites and they are 8-6 against the line when giving away a start.

The market looks to have got this game right from a head-to-head perspective, but the under has saluted in 11 of the 12 games played by the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium this season and the total points line of 168.5 does look a tad excessive for a game involving Essendon.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 168.5 Points