Penultimate round. Maximum chaos.
With just two rounds until finals, Round 23 looms large for contenders, pretenders and the terminally cooked.
While Adelaide is looking to end a winless run against the Pies and lock in a home final, just about everybody else is fighting for a spot in September.
The season may be over for the likes of Essendon and St Kilda, but there are still betting plays to be made when the two sides clash at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.
The Saints, who are currently $1.20 favourites in this dead rubber, managed a third-consecutive win with last week’s four-point victory over Richmond.
It was one of the ugliest games to the eye which is in line with their previous wins against Melbourne (6) and North Melbourne (9).
As for the Dons, they’re a basket case running a 10-game losing streak to close out the season.
Captain Zach Merrett is the latest in a string of injuries for Brad Scott’s men, and there’s no doubt they’ll be unable to curb the influence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera who has recorded 30+ disposals in nine of St Kilda’s last 10 matches in Victoria.
While the Dons and Saints play for high-fives and back slaps, the real Friday night blockbuster gets underway in the west when the fourth-placed Dockers host the fifth-placed Lions at Optus Stadium.
Having usurped the reigning premiers into the top four following their six-point triumph over Port, the Dockers will be looking to secure the double chance and send off their champion Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe off in style after he announced his retirement.
Hayden Young is a test to play this week, but Freo won’t be taking any chances with the star mid prior to finals.
Ryan Lester will return for the Lions as they try to end a poor run that includes two losses in three weeks, but they will be buoyed by the fact they’ve won each of their last nine matches against opponents ranked higher on the ladder.
One of the games of the round, the Gold Coast Suns and GWS will lock horns in a bid to keep their respective finals/top four hopes alive.
The Suns have worked their way into sixth spot on the ladder and, with a very winnable extra game against Essendon up their sleeve, will view this clash as the one that can all but guarantee a maiden finals appearance.
The Giants ran out 54-point winners over the Kangaroos on Sunday afternoon, but it came at a cost with Jake Stringer set to miss 3-4 weeks with an injured hamstring.
Jesse Hogan will be tested before being considered to come back from a sore foot, making it hard to see them improving their incredible record of 14 wins from 15 against the Suns.
It’s been a tough year for both Carlton and Port Adelaide, but the two sides will attempt to salvage something from it with a late season win at Marvel Stadium on Saturday.
Michael Voss and his Blues enter the game at $1.53 with Ladbrokes, but it’s certainly not a reflection of their form, having lost three on the bounce and 14 of their 21 this year.
Port is in slightly better shape than their opponents this week after pushing Fremantle to within a goal, but their playing stocks are very thin following season-ending injuries to Jack Lukosius and Jase Burgoyne.
Carlton’s decision to stick with Vossy into next season gives a little bit of stability that may help in this one.
Back in form and looking to lock down a finals spot, Hawthorn can go one step closer when they take on the embattled Demons at the MCG on Saturday.
While Collingwood hasn’t been anywhere near their early-season form of late, the Hawks were simply outstanding in their 64-point win on Thursday night.
Jai Newcombe found much-needed touch with 28 disposals, while veteran Jack Gunston continued to wind back the clock with a game-high four goals.
The Dees were competitive in their first outing since the departure of Simon Goodwin, but it’s hard to see them backing it up against a side as strong as Hawthorn.
Now this is a Round 23 fixture…
Saturday nights don’t get much bigger than the top-of-the-table Crows taking on the out-of-form but usually outstanding Magpies at Adelaide Oval.
The Magpies are in danger of falling out of the top four after winning just one of their last five games.
Bobby Hill and Beau McCreery both trained on Tuesday but will need to pass fitness tests, while Jeremy Howe will miss with concussion.
This bodes as the perfect finals warm-up for the Crows and the ideal way to end a 10-game losing streak against the Pies.
James Peatling will return from a corked thigh and will replace Rory Laird who misses due to suspension.
The Magpies’ defence has been in disarray for a month, meaning it could be a night out for the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Tex Walker.
From the battle for top spot to the battle for 17th, North Melbourne and Richmond will meet at Ninja Stadium in Hobart on Sunday afternoon.
The Tigers could be considered value at $2.40 after pushing St Kilda to four points last week and keeping them to just 56 for the match.
Jye Simpkin is a sniff to return for North Melbourne this weekend, as they look to bounce back from a 54-point loss to the Giants.
North Melbourne has lost the first half in each of its last seven matches, so we’re taking the Tiges to hold on for sixth win this season.
Sydney the destroyers will look to hurt another team’s chances of a home final when they host Geelong at the SCG on Sunday.
The Swans were outstanding when holding on for a two-point win over the Lions, making it seven wins from their past nine games.
The Cats have it all to play for, however, with a double chance and home final on the cards.
They dominated the Bombers by 44 points but will face their toughest test in a month after wins over Port, North and the Saints.
Patrick Dangerfield and Jack Martin are in line to face Sydney after being managed, but this one should really go down to the wire.
If you liked the Eagles’ performance for three quarters last week, there’s $17 available in the head-to-head market against the Doggies.
It will be a tough slog for Mini’s men, who face a Western Bulldogs outfit playing off for a top eight spot.
The ninth-placed Dogs kept their season alive with a six-point come-from-behind victory over the Dees last week, with Aaron Naughton once again leading the charge with five goals.
This one should be no issue for the sons of the west, with their ability to beat up on lower ranked opponents a thing of beauty this season.
2024
The Bombers were put to bed in the most Essendon way possible, losing after the siren against the Suns, and their last two weeks are even more of a punch in the face.
Sydney is still suffering from a significant form slump, and it was Collingwood’s inability to hold fourth quarter leads that saw them right back into the game, getting them over the line.
Pound for pound the Swans have the advantage in almost every third, but it’s their speed in transition that breaks down the Bombers on most occasions, and it did earlier this year.
In the instance where the Bombers won last week, they probably would’ve kept an extra four to five thousand fans to turn up to this game, but the drop off in support probably won’t help their case.
Inside 50 efficiency has plagued both teams over the past few weeks, and the Swans in particular keep struggling to generate large stretches of momentum in their games.
Defensively the Bombers are going to have a hard time shutting out Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey, who will likely be the Swans main targets.
The Bombers are quite proficient at forward 05 stoppages and locking the ball in, so a rapid approach will give them good looks in front of the big sticks, which they’re capable of at Marvel.
It’s the Swans third trip to Marvel this year, and they haven’t been at their best on the previous two occasions, with their last outing the dooming loss to the Saints.
The Bombers are realistically done and dusted, but it’s their final home game of the year, so they won’t go easy.
Tip: Swans to win by 1-24 and Joel Amartey to kick 2+ goals @ $5.47
To be saying that the Suns are coming off a win interstate is something unexpected, but they finally broke the hoodoo and get to head back up to the Sunshine State to make it two in a row.
Melbourne was competitive and showed that they aren’t that far off it, but just weren’t able to get it done, the story of their season.
Developing a young core has never been a part of the Suns issues, but making them a powerhouse has been, which makes this challenge against the Dees enticing.
The heroics of Mac Andrew not just last week, but almost the whole season have elevated the Suns forward presence to the next level, but the use of Andrew as a swingman makes them a lot more versatile in big moments.
Kosy Pickett and Max Gawn produced mammoth efforts against the Power last week, but in such a low-scoring affair, the Dees couldn’t find a killer blow elsewhere inside 50.
The lack of depth in the midfield department is also a bigger issue the Demons are dealing with, who were smashed in disposals by the Power midfielders.
This is where the Suns will have the advantage on the weekend, and with the Suns entering the game second in inside 50s, they’ll see quite a lot of opportunities forward of centre.
Neither side excels for efficiency inside 50, but the Dees are quite adaptive intercept readers, so the Suns will need to lower their eyes to make use of any midfield dominance.
Back at home where they had their streak broken last time out, they’ll want to make amends and get back to winning form on the Gold Coast.
Tip: Suns to win by 1-39 and Matt Rowell to have 25+ disposals @ $3.67
Fremantle has lost its label as outsiders because the reality is they keep letting opportunity after opportunity slip in their pursuit of a top-four finish.
On the other hand, the Giants are playing footy that is not convincing, yet gets the job done.
Accuracy has been their best friend, and it makes them such a threat in the back half of games when sides blunder opportunities in front of the big sticks.
The Dockers smashed the Cats in uncontested possession around the ground, +101, but completely wasted the footy inside 50 at 38% inside 50 efficiency.
The Giants play with more risk in their game, and often it pays off late with chaos entries, but they are very prone to turning it over, which no side has really exploited in the past few weeks.
The loss of Josh Treacy up forward completely hurt the Dockers forward options, and it took three goals from Caleb Serong to add to the missing piece.
Against poor backlines, the Dockers score with ease, but against well-drilled defensive units, the Dockers have no plan B, which will continue to haunt them in the back end of the season.
The Dockers have won the last two games at Manuka, so their track record stacks up, but they need to find the scoring capacity to match the Giants efficiency.
The Giants are due a bad loss sometime soon, as form doesn’t correlate to their results, but the Dockers just can’t find a groove.
Tip: Giants to win by 1-24 and Jesse Hogan to kick 2+ goals @ $3.79
If there’s any sign of a danger game, this is probably it for the Lions, who couldn’t put away the Giants on the scoreboard.
They’re coming up against a Pies side who let another big lead slip in the fourth quarter, and there’s nothing worse than playing against a side with everything on the line.
It’s the first time since last year’s AFL Grand Final where these sides meet back at the MCG, and luckily for the Lions sake, they’re 1/1 at the G this season.
Brisbane’s punctuality forward of centre was electric against the Giants, and the scoreboard did tell the story, however, it was their inability to defend the surge of entries in the fourth that collapsed their system.
Collingwood’s fast-paced offensive transition may cause similar issues for the Lions, and since they’ve gotten back into the rhythm of their system, they haven’t posted a score less than 80.
The Lions midfield has been the difference maker for them over the past few weeks, and the return of Will Ashcroft has added another layer of security at the stoppages.
The Lions hurt the Pies the most when they beat them at their own game, and if they’re able to generate a lot of pace and speed out of the stoppage, they’re likely to catch the defensive unit off guard.
Contest pressure will dictate a large part of this contest, and at the MCG, the Pies definitely have the advantage.
They beat them earlier this year at the Gabba, and although things have changed, it’s almost do or die for the Pies, which I think calls for a major upset.
Tip: Collingwood to win by 1-24 @ $3.80
The Power is in the box seat for a top-four finish, and they could almost undo all their hard work with a showdown loss.
In most rivalries, one side has the wood over the others, and it’s the Crows in this instance, who have won four of the last five Showdown battles.
The Power looked shaky against the Demons, and it still feels like they’ve got to prove their credentials just that little bit more heading into September.
The Crows are a good place to start, beating a team that has belted them in recent encounters through a lack of defensive running and pressure.
Adelaide came up big against the Dogs, causing a major upset to win by 39 points, led by Darcy Fogarty with five goals and Lachlan Scholl with 34 disposals.
Adelaide has an identity, but it’s their list depth that holds them back from being consistently competitive against the best.
But as mentioned, speed and offensive pressure have always worked for them against the Power, and while they don’t go like-for-like in the midfield, they run harder and exploit the Power off turnover.
Port Adelaide is the worst in the competition for shot on goal accuracy, which can’t afford to be an issue against the Crows on the big stage.
Shutting down the corridor completely changes the complexity of the game for the Power, and if they can limit the Crows uncontested possession, they’ll stop any forward surges that they usually get hurt by.
If the Power loses this, it’s almost goodbye to a top-four spot, but the reality is, they don’t deserve it if they can’t get up for this.
Tip: Either side to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.70
Geelong keep on keeping on in season 2024, and while statistics don’t reflect their dominance, they know how to get over the line.
They keep on winning and they’re guaranteed a top-four spot, which will be crucial to get them deep in September.
St Kilda got the job done against the Tigers in no real surprise, and they were able to capitalise off their tall forward stock.
These two sides met back in Round 1, where the Cats nearly let the Saints make a late comeback.
But with form lines considered, it’s certainly no walkover for the Cats, who haven’t been able to dominate their opponents, but simply capitalising inside 50.
The Saints have won the past two matches against the Cats at Marvel, and the general hatred towards the blue and white hoops always adds an extra element in this game.
The Cats punished the Saints on inside 50 entries the last time out, but the Cats struggled to stop the Saints from scoring on their inside 50 entries.
The Saints have proven they’re quite proficient around the stoppage clearances, but when it comes down to like-for-like, they struggle to meet their match.
If the Cats underestimate their opponent, they’ll get what they deserve, but if they bring their best, it shouldn’t cause them too much trouble.
Tip: Geelong to cover the line (-11.5) and Tyson Stengle Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.05
It was a matter of time before the Dogs slipped up, and last week’s loss to the Crows just reminded us how patchy the Dogs can be.
Not to say that it’s all over now, but their intense stretch of good form is now under threat, and they’ve only got two more weeks to fix it.
The Roos saw a 35-point lead dissipate against the Eagles, and a 13-point lead disappear in the final two minutes, so there will be the need to make up for it in this clash.
From when this game starts, it would have been only 50 days since their last meeting, as some teams only meet for the first time this weekend.
The Dogs got home by three goals in that encounter, and the Roos will be hoping to turn that result around, looking to shut down the Dogs use of uncontested ball.
When the Roos get running in transition, they become quite hard to shut down, and their forward line is quite good at creating chaos at the drop of the ball.
The Dogs won the inside 50 count by 16 against the Crows but couldn’t convert, going at 45.8% efficiency, whilst the Crows found easy ways at goals, going at 60.5% efficiency.
2019 was the last time the Roos beat the Dogs, and it’s been six in a row since that point, so the Dogs haven’t had trouble shutting them down.
North still can’t put together full performances, and they will eventually, but against classier sides, it’s not happening.
Tip: Bulldogs to win by 1-39 and Bailey Dale to have 20+ disposals @ $2.95
How can anyone stop the Hawks at the moment? They’re ruthless and taking no risks heading into September for the first time since 2019.
Dusty’s 300th set the scene for the last time these two sides met not that long ago back in June, but the Hawks dominated then, so hard to see them not doing so now.
The Tigers are just going through the motions to finish the year, locked into the bottom spot, they’ll be in no rush to win another game.
Daniel Rioli was their shining light last week, finishing with 37 disposals against the Saints, but the Tigers lack of dominance forward of centre limited their opportunities to make an impact on the game.
The Hawks forward transition almost needs a name for itself, and on the MCG, it’s unstoppable with the width of the ground.
The small forward brigade is unselfish and capitalising on every moment, which makes defending their forward 50 a nightmare.
The Hawks pressure elevated their game last time out against the Tigers, and with so much on the line still, their approach shouldn’t change.
Tip: Mabior Chol and Calsher Dear to kick 2+ goals @ $4.03
The wheels have completely fallen off at Princes Park, and it’s now do or die for the Blues who must win their final two games to have a shot at September action for the second year in a row.
They were embarrassed by the Hawks last week, soured by multiple injuries and now face the Eagles on their turf, who pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Roos last week.
The Blues inability to defend fast-paced transition has always caused them issues, and when the game isn’t played on contested terms, they struggle to maintain dominance.
West Coast were smashed around the contest and in the inside 50 count against the Roos but were super clinical inside 50.
From the 27 scoring shots they managed, only 15 inside 50 entries didn’t end in a shot on goal, which speaks to their efficiency in the forward half.
Assuming the Blues are without Charlie Curnow over in the West, the Eagles will look to the Power in the way they shut out Harry McKay a few weeks ago, which really left holes in the Blues forward line.
Carlton have won their last two games over in the West, which was previously not a happy hunting ground for them.
But it’s about time punters stop putting faith in the Blues, as they consistently don’t deliver, and with a full Eagles crowd, things are likely to get worse before they get better.
Tip: Eagles to win by 1-39 @ $2.75
2023
The penultimate round of the home and away AFL season has arrived with plenty set to play out.
A heavyweight 1st vs 2nd battle opens the round between the Pies and the Lions, before a huge Saturday headlined by a twilight clash between the Saints and the Cats.
The top eight is far from set, and with upsets almost guaranteed, find out where the value lies in our Round 23 preview!
rematch from Easter Thursday leads off the round with the Pies hoping to enact revenge on the Lions for their 33-point beatdown earlier in the year.
Collingwood returned to form last week with a stirring win over reigning premiers Geelong, but the Pies have suffered another serious injury blow with skipper Darcy Moore set for a 2-3 week stint on the sideline.
Brisbane suffered their own blow with offseason recruit Jack Gunston straining his MCL, but given their depth, the Lions should be fine up forward for the next few weeks.
The jury is still out on the Lions, but they did exploit Collingwood in a big way when they met in Round 4 – carving the Pies up through the midfield, winning the clearances handily, and forcing some big turnovers.
Brisbane tends to get strong support at Marvel, a key factor against the Collingwood Army this time of year.
After allowing the Cats to come back last week, plus the fact they are missing two key leaders in Moore and Nick Daicos, Brisbane to win a high-scoring game looks the play.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+4.5) & Over 168.5 Total Points @ $3.70
Saturday marks the end of an era for the Richmond footy club with Premiership legends Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin officially hanging up the boots.
Three straight losses have basically penned a line through the Tigers’ finals chances, but this does shape as a minor revenge game after suffering a shock upset to North Melbourne last year.
The Roos have put together two encouraging performances against Melbourne and Essendon in recent weeks, but their growing injury list remains a concern over the final fortnight.
Gun midfielder George Wardlaw has been ruled out for the remainder of the year with a hamstring injury, joining Jaidyn Stephenson on the sideline.
Looking to send two club heroes into the sunset, the Tigers should win, and win big.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-24.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sporting an eight-game winning streak, the Blues are the hottest team in footy right now – a remarkable statement given how the club was trending toward the midway point of the season.
Carlton claimed another big scalp last week with a four-point win over Melbourne, and confidence should be high again this week coming off a 59-point massacre over the Suns earlier in the year.
Sam Walsh looks to be another week away, but there is good news on the Harry McKay front with the Blues’ star forward a chance at returning.
It has to be noted that the Suns are a different beast at home though, and they’d likely relish the chance at playing finals spoiler over these final two weeks.
The current line reflects that, but given the Blues have allowed the fewest points to opponents this season, this shapes as a difficult day for a Suns side potentially still missing Ben King.
Tip: Back Carlton 1-39 @ $2.10
The respective positions of these two teams on the ladder tells you all you need to know heading into Saturday’s clash.
Occupying 9th and 10th, the Giants and Bombers have everything to play for over the final two rounds, but based on recent form, neither inspires a ton of confidence when it comes to betting or tipping.
To be fair, GWS has played a much tougher quality of opponent over the last two weeks, suffering a pair of losses to the Swans and Port Adelaide.
Essendon, meanwhile, has enjoyed the rub of the green with two favourable match ups against West Coast and North Melbourne, but given the Dons have won each by only single digits, it’s hard to find faith in Brad Scott’s club.
That said, the Bombers prevailed by 13 points when they met the Giants earlier in the year, and there could be some good news on the injury front with key names like Jake Stringer, Sam Draper, and Dylan Shiel a chance at returning.
The Giants could also welcome back Finn Callaghan, a huge boost to the wing after struggling for points in recent weeks.
The Bombers haven’t tasted a road win over GWS since 2018, but with some key reinforcements returning in the nick of time, they appear a little hard done by in the market.
Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $1.90
Two weeks is a long time in footy, but the Cats could very well miss finals if they fail to take care of business at Marvel on Saturday night.
Chris Scott’s side has endured a tough month, compounded with a third straight loss from four games last week in narrow fashion against rivals Collingwood.
Jeremy Cameron returning to form is one positive, but against the defensive-minded Saints, this still shapes as a fascinating match up with so much at stake.
A month ago, the Saints appeared the most vulnerable team sitting inside the eight, but three wins from their last four has done enough to steer the ship in the right direction.
Max King’s accuracy in front of goal and Jack Sinclair’s form has gone a long way, but perhaps more importantly, the Saints still remain one of the most efficient teams when it comes to disposals and tackling.
Those two areas will prove pivotal this week against the Cats, especially with Tom Hawkins and Cam Guthrie a chance at returning.
At first glance, it feels like the bookies may have this market the wrong way around, but it still seems unfathomable to imagine last year’s premiers missing out on finals.
Sometimes all it comes down to is who needs it most, and right now, that’s Geelong.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.15
It’s do-or-die for the Crows at home this week.
Another honourable loss to the Brisbane Lions was an encouraging sign for the future, but after boasting genuine finals aspirations midway through the year, Adelaide continues to come up short in several key areas.
Playing at home has proven crucial to the Crows’ chances, evident in the fact they’ve averaged nearly 15 more marks per-game, and nearly four more goals than they have on the road.
On the flip side, the Swans have just as much to play for. John Longmire’s squad has put together five wins on the trot, the latest coming over the Gold Coast Suns in superb fashion.
If they make it, there might not be a bigger dark horse than last year’s Grand Final runner-ups, but this does shape as a serious litmus test for a team that appeared lost only two months ago.
Side by side, the Crows have been a much more efficient team when it comes to marking the ball inside 50, while they’ve also recorded fewer turnovers per-game.
The Swans have the firepower to match Adelaide on the scoreboard, but with the Crows in must-win mode, they look tough to bet against with full home support behind them.
Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90
There might not be a more frustrating team in the competition right now than the Western Bulldogs.
A win over the Tigers two weeks ago appeared to put the Doggies back on track, but as we’ve seen before, things quickly came undone in Launceston last Sunday with an upset loss to the Hawks.
Making the most of their opportunities inside the attacking 50 is an ongoing problem, but after losing the uncontested possession count by a huge margin last week, Luke Beveridge has a few problem areas to clean up.
As most clubs have found, a game against West Coast can do wonders for confidence, not that the Dogs need any reminder.
A 101-point win over West Coast last year set the tone midseason – the same margin the Eagles lost by last week to Fremantle in the Derby.
Losing Tom Liberatore to concussion hurts, but if the Dogs can avoid the silly mistakes that plagued them last week, they should be winning big.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-64.5 Points) @ $1.90
It’s been a big week off the field for the Demons, but the focus has to remain on the field this week with a tough matchup against a feisty Hawks outfit.
Melbourne’s top four spot is guaranteed if they take care of business, but with the Blues only six points adrift, there’s still time for things to get interesting.
Hawthorn has put together a pair of magical wins over Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, encouraging signs of things to come for a club that most had penciled in for the wooden spoon.
Unfortunately, the injury bug has struck the brown and gold with Chad Wingard rupturing his achilles, while key forward Mitch Lewis is also in doubt with a foot problem.
The absence of both will be felt up forward, but the Hawks do strike the Dees at an opportune time with Bayley Fritsch still a week away from returning.
Historically, Melbourne has enjoyed the better part of this fixture winning six of their last seven encounters with Hawthorn, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Hawks are capable of pushing even the best teams.
Whether they can accomplish that three weeks in a row is the question, but with confidence high and Melbourne struggling to put together two halves of footy in recent weeks, this could be another interesting afternoon.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+25.5 Points) @ $1.90
Encouraging signs for Port Adelaide emerged last week in a blowout win over GWS, but after losing four games prior, the Power still need to prove themselves a genuine flag contender as we head toward September.
A trip to Perth could go one of two ways – a win away from home would do wonders for morale and confidence, but a loss could prove defining after extending coach Ken Hinkley during the week.
Fremantle’s chances of making the finals appear slim, and it’s starting to look like a case of “too little, too late”.
The Dockers have been impressive in recent weeks, upsetting Geelong at the Cattery, and annihilating rivals West Coast by 101 points in last week’s Derby.
Justin Longmuir’s side is finally impacting the scoreboard after struggling throughout the year, which does make for an interesting match up against a Port Adelaid side that ranks third in points scored.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90
2022
A drama-filled weekend of footy is upon us as several clubs await their fate.
A guaranteed top four spot is up for grabs on Friday night between the Lions and the Dees at the Gabba, followed by an exciting Saturday that features the Tigers taking on the Bombers, and the final Showdown between Port and the Crows.
The game of the round, if not the year, follows on Sunday between the Blues and the Pies, while there could still be plenty on the line when the Saints and the Swans meet at Marvel.
Who’s in and who’s out? Our best bets for a wild Round 23 ahead.
Stress levels will be high at the Gabba on Friday night with the winner guaranteed a top-four finish, and the loser almost assured a home elimination final in a fortnight’s time.
Despite last week’s win over St Kilda, Brisbane’s top-four hopes still hang in the balance with Collingwood and Fremantle breathing down their neck, while the Dees, fresh from a last-second win over Carlton, face a similar scenario tied on points.
Neither side has exactly set the world on fire over the last month, both winning two of their last three and struggling to play out a full four quarters.
Brisbane nearly let a a comfortable lead slip through its fingertips for the second week in a row against the Saints, while the Dees were lucky to capitalise on a late Blues error that eventually set up Kozzie Pickett’s game-winner.
Looking back, Lions fans probably have more to feel nervous about.
Their club failed to show up on the big stage against the Dees back in Round 15, a disheartening 64-point loss that cast plenty of doubt around Brisbane’s flag credentials and their ability to win at the MCG.
The Lions have now lost three in a row to Melbourne dating back to last year, and although they’ve been almost impossible to beat at the Gabba, their back-line has looked shaky in recent weeks with Harris Andrews coming under fire.
Low-scoring games and inaccuracy in front of goal has been a common theme for the Dees this year, but they’ve still been the third-best side in the competition when it comes to getting the ball inside 50.
A comfortable win could prove vital for either team with the Swans only sitting second on percentage, but when you look at how these two sides are trending right now, it feels like we’re in for a close one.
For Brisbane to win, the Lions need the best version’s of Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron to turn up – something that has been missing in recent weeks. And for the Dees, they simply need to avoid the third quarter woes that nearly cost them last week.
Winning the clearances will also be crucial, but with the Lions showing on a handful of occasions that they aren’t to be trusted when the pressure is on, the Dees look a good bet in what should be a nail-biter.
Tip: Back the Dees to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
It will be a nervous weekend for Fremantle fans, starting on Saturday when their side heads to Canberra to face a feisty Giants team that would like nothing more than to throw a spanner in the works.
The Dockers are still a top-four chance if they take care of business in the ACT, but they’ll be sweating on the result of Sunday’s Saints/Swans game to learn their fate.
Justin Longmuir is among the candidates for Coach of the Year this season, but the second-year man in charge will know his side has plenty left to work on after kicking 17 behinds in last week’s Derby win over West Coast.
Like Melbourne, low-scoring games have been common for the defensive-minded Dockers, which does bode well against a Giants side that has averaged the third-fewest goals in the competition.
To their credit, GWS pushed the Bulldogs all the way in last week’s slow, low-scoring thriller at Marvel, but that game perhaps said more about the Dogs than it did the Giants.
Fremantle belted the orange team by 34 points when they met back in April, but there are still concerns on the injury front with Rory Lobb exiting last week’s game early to join Matt Taberner and injured skipper Nat Fyfe on the sideline.
None of the three are guaranteed to play this week, which largely explains the two-goal head-start favouring Fremantle.
On one hand, a road trip to end the season is brutal for a club pushing for a top-four spot, but on the other, it could be just what the Dockers need to boost morale and confidence heading into the pointy end of the season.
Either way, Freo should be winning this one, but the Under still feels the safer play.
Tip: Under 150.5 Total Points @ $1.88
The bottom of the ladder is almost as intriguing as the top with one round left to play.
A win for North Melbourne and a West Coast loss could be enough for the Kangas to avoid their second-straight wooden spoon, but it won’t come easy against a Suns team looking to wrap up a pleasantly surprising year on a high note.
Last week’s 60-point loss to Geelong was a far cry from the team we witnessed earlier in the season, but the Suns have far exceeded expectations under Stuart Dew given they were at one point right in the thick of the finals mix.
Injuries and some close losses have cost the Suns down the stretch, but this is still a huge opportunity for Gold Coast to potentially finish as high as 11th if results go their way.
Like so many before them, the Suns battered North when they met back in Round 12.
Sam Day, Touk Miller, and Izak Rankine all put on a show in the 52-point win, and we could see a similar result on Saturday in what may turn out to be Miller’s final game in red and yellow.
Scoring has been a huge problem for North all year, but they too will have a point to prove as they try and lure Alastair Clarkson away from Essendon or another suitor.
The Roos really gave it to the Crows for the better part of three quarters last week, and they should have plenty of support behind them at home.
It’s worth noting that the Suns have lost four of their last five at Marvel, so with a healthy head-start on offer, North covering doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+20.5 Points) @ $1.90
A full crowd will be in attendance at the Cattery on Saturday night to celebrate Geelong’s minor premiership.
Last week’s belting over the Suns was enough to secure the top spot on the ladder, leaving Chris Scott with a few important decisions to make in terms of selection.
West Coast, meanwhile, has plenty left to play for with the wooden spoon still yet to be determined, but it’s hard to see the Eagles causing any kind of upset in Geelong, regardless of who Scott chooses to rest.
The Cats are currently averaging nearly 10 more scoring shots a game compared to West Coast, while the average inside 50 numbers also paint a pretty alarming picture.
Given the Eagles’ last win in Geelong came way back in 2006, this shapes as another long day to cap off what has been an even longer season for the visitors.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-61.5 Points) @ $1.90
It’s been another tumultuous week off the field for Essendon with president Paul Brasher stepping down on the back of last week’s debacle against Port Adelaide.
Coach Ben Rutten, who has maintained his job for at least one more game, labeled the Bombers’ 84-point home loss as “embarrassing” after his side gave up seven unanswered goals in the second term.
A similar performance against Richmond this week could be the final nail in the coffin for Rutten, and it’s hard to find any confidence in the club with Richmond playing for seventh spot on the ladder.
The Tigers, led by superstar forward Tom Lynch, locked up a return to finals with a blowout win over Hawthorn last week, and they’ll fancy their chances at maintaining their spot after belting the Bombers by 32 points when they met earlier in the year.
Essendon has been one of the easiest teams to score against throughout the course of the season, and their work around the stoppages continues to be second-rate.
Lynch can’t win the Coleman from here, but the big man has been in rare goal-kicking form over the last two weeks, complimented by promising youngster Noah Cumberland, and the always reliable Shai Bolton.
Team’s do tend to respond in times of crisis, but it’s really hard to find any positives about Essendon right now.
The Bombers haven’t beaten the Tigers since 2014, and with the Tiger Army likely in full voice gearing up for the finals, it doesn’t feel like that drought is going to any time soon.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-22.5 Points) @ $1.90
There’s nothing on the line in the final Showdown of the year, but if it turns out anything like the Round 3 thriller, fans should be in for a real treat.
The Crows famously won on Jordan Dawson’s goal after the siren, sinking Port Adelaide to 0-3 and heaping further pressure on Ken Hinkley.
Reports last week from the top suggest Hinkley will serve another season as Port coach, and we did see the club respond well to the news with a comfortable win over Essendon last Sunday.
The Crows, on the other hand, were lucky to survive North Melbourne after a sluggish three quarters at home.
Adelaide spent most of the game in front, but they’ll need to be better around the centre clearances this week with Port looking to even the score with their rival.
That said, the Crows have shown some real glimpses into the future during this recent three-game winning streak, particularly up forward with Darcy Fogarty enjoying a few big weeks in front of the sticks.
Adelaide has also been the top tackling side in the competition this year, which should make for an interesting contest against a Port Adelaide side that has also ramped up its pressure around the ball.
Tip: Under 163.5 Total Points @ $1.88
The Dogs have faced “must-win” games for the last six weeks, but this time around, there’s actual truth to the statement.
The Grand Final runner-ups simply have to win against the Hawks in Launceston to stand a chance at making the eight, while they also need Carlton to lose to Collingwood later on.
Luke Beveridge’s side was less than impressive against GWS last week, missing targets and settling for just nine goals in a low-scoring, five-point win.
A month ago the Dogs ran out 10-point winners over Melbourne, but their last two games have left a lot to be desired on the scoreboard.
The Hawks faced similar problems last week in the loss to the Tigers, giving up eight goals to Tom Lynch while struggling for accuracy down the other end.
Hawthorn had quietly been in winning form prior to last week, but it was always difficult to read too much into wins over Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and West Coast.
On the flip side, the Hawks have been a tough out down in Tassie for the last two decades, and with plenty of rain about throughout the week, we could be in for some more low-scoring, wet weather footy.
Neither side inspires much confidence from a betting perspective, although it is worth noting the Dogs kicked 19 goals in a big win over the Hawks back in June.
This one could really go either way, but for the sake of some added drama, the Dogs to win and the Under looks a decent value play.
Tip: Back the Dogs to Win & Under 174.5 Total Points @ $2.75
A full house is expected at the ‘G on Sunday for a game many fans have had circled for months.
The Blues suffered a heart-breaking loss last week to Melbourne in the final seconds, but they still stand a chance at playing finals if they can take care of business this week against the Pies.
Collingwood also has plenty to play for – a win guaranteeing the Pies a top-four spot in Craig McRae’s first season as coach.
There’s a long list of storylines and history worth delving into, but from a pure betting standpoint, this is easily one of the toughest games to try and tip of not just the round, but the entire season.
Collingwood has only been an average bounce-back bet over the last 12 months, playing to a 4-3 record head to head and a 3-4 record at the line.
Carlton, meanwhile, has been much more profitable, playing to a 7-2 record in both markets.
The Blues’ chances have taken a hit with midfielder Matthew Kennedy done for the rest of the season, but Carlton fans can rest somewhat easier knowing Jordan de Goey won’t play the final game of the season.
Jack Ginnivan’s status is also up in the air with the young star coming out at half-time last week in the loss to Sydney with a hamstring complaint.
The Pies still have plenty of talent up forward, but on paper, the Blues hold the upper-hand with Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay both looking to make an impact.
Carlton’s lack of composure cost them last week, which is to be expected from a young side that has done very little winning over the last few seasons.
The Blues will take plenty of lessons away from that game, and it’s now on leaders like Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, and Adam Saad to steer the ship with the season on the line.
To add further spice, Collingwood won a four-point thriller in one of the games of the season back in Round 11, a result Carlton fans still haven’t forgotten.
This game is nothing more than a coin-flip, but if the Blues can bring the same pressure they applied to Melbourne in the fourth quarter last week, and also rely on a bag of goals from Curnow or McKay, they should be able to keep this fairytale season alive.
Tip: Back Carlton to Win @ $1.94
The Saints are a mathematical chance at playing finals, but they might already know their fate by the time they run out on Sunday afternoon.
Sydney, meanwhile, may need to win to secure their top-four spot, which as we’ve seen already this year, is far from a guarantee at Marvel.
The Swans are 1-2 under the roof in Melbourne, losing to the Dogs in Round 3, the Blues in Round 10, before surviving a mild scare against North Melbourne only a fortnight ago.
John Longmire’s side made up for that performance against the Pies last week though, in large part thanks to another three-goal game from Buddy Franklin and a huge effort from Issac Heeney.
After flirting with the eight for most of the season, the Saints have been very mediocre in the run home.
Max King has cooled off massively in front of the sticks, and as a result, the scoring has dried up immensely.
The Saints have struggled to play a full four quarters for most of the season, and although they came to life late against Brisbane last week, it’s hardly a recipe for success against the top-four clubs.
This game might turn out closer than Sydney likes, but the Swans did belt St Kilda by 51 points when they met at the SCG a couple of months ago.
Tip: Back the Swans 1-39 @ $2.10
2021
Ten teams will see their season come to a close this weekend as Round 23 marks the final weekend of regular season footy.
It’s all on the line for the likes of Essendon, West Coast and Fremantle, while the race for the minor premiership heats up with a Friday night blockbuster between the Dogs and Port, followed by a 1st v 2nd battle on Saturday when the Cats host the Dees.
The Bombers can qualify for the finals with a win over Collingwood on Sunday, while the Hawks will be looking to send Alastair Clarkson off in style in his final game as coach.
There’s nothing like the drama of the final round, and we’ve got you covered with analysis on all nine games in our AFL Round 23 Preview here!
The Dogs and Port meet at Marvel on Friday night in what is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the season.
Sitting second and third respectively, the winner will have every chance to finish on top of the ladder should Melbourne lose to Geelong, while the loser could potentially slip as low as fourth.
We’re faced with some good value in the market, but like the ladder implications, betting on this game is fairly clear cut when you factor in the recent form of each side.
Port rolls into this game riding a five-game winning streak, while the Dogs are coming off two uncharacteristic losses to the Bombers and Hawks.
The injury to star forward Josh Bruce was noticeable last week as Luke Beveridge’s side managed only 13 shots on goal, and it’s safe to say his absence will be felt again this week against a Port team that has allowed the third-fewest goals in the competition.
Port also sports a strong 4-0 record at Marvel this year, making it increasingly difficult to back against the Power with so much on the line.
Tip: Back Port 1-39 @ $2.60
Saturday marks the end of an era at the MCG as Hawthorn bids farewell to four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson.
The Hawks have done their leader proud over the last three weeks with impressive wins over Brisbane, Collingwood and the Dogs as they now look to send Clarko off in style with one last victory over the reigning premiers.
There is a mathematical chance of Richmond still playing finals, but it would take nothing short of a miracle. The Tigers would need to win by 100+ points over the Hawks and rely on Collingwood to win by 60+ over Essendon to still make the eight.
At this point, Richmond is simply looking to wrap things up on a high note against a team they’ve had no trouble beating over the last few years, but given the form the Hawks have shown, this game looks far from a guarantee.
Hawthorn’s forward line has looked unstoppable in recent weeks, and you just know the genius of Clarko is going to shine through in his final game in brown and gold.
Considering Trent Cotchin is set to miss this game with a knee injury, the Hawks look a good bet to give Clarko one last win to smile about.
Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90
There is a scenario where the Swans could finish as high as fourth, but unless we see several blowouts occur this week, Sydney is likely to finish no higher than fifth.
To do so, the Swans need to take care of the Suns and hope West Coast defeats Brisbane, the latter being the most unlikely of the two.
Sydney comes into this game on the back of a 14-point win over North last week, a game John Longmire will be hoping his side can improve on after his men struggled for accuracy in front of goal.
There’s perhaps no better side to hone your craft against than the Suns, but Longmire will also be taking a cautious approach to this game after the Suns won by 40 points when they met at Metricon back in April.
Also of concern moving forward is the injury to skipper Nick Blakey after the halfback suffered a broken fibula last week in the win over North.
Josh Kennedy is also set to miss this game with a hamstring problem, leaving the Swans short on two of their top leaders.
The Suns have struggled mightily to find points in recent weeks, so the Swans should run way with this game in the end.
That said, Gold Coast can be a tough out sometimes, so it wouldn’t surprise to see them keep this game close in the early goings.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the 1st Half Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90
West Coast’s shock loss in the Derby last week to Fremantle has left them with a less than ideal path to playing finals.
Sitting ninth, the Eagles not only need to knock off the Lions at the Gabba on Saturday, but they also need either the Blues to beat the Giants or the Pies to beat the Bombers to finish eighth.
Stranger things have happened, but given the Eagles’ ongoing road woes this season, an upset in Brisbane is very hard to imagine.
As for the Lions, Chris Fagan’s side still stands a chance at finishing fourth if Port beats the Bulldogs on Friday, night followed by a big win over the Eagles.
If not, the Lions will likely settle for fifth if the Suns somehow beat the Swans, setting up a potential blockbuster elimination final against Essendon next week.
On the betting front, it’s difficult to fade the Lions given how dominant they’ve been at the Gabba – not that West Coast fans need any reminding.
The Eagles have lost their last two games against the Lions by 30 points or more, and the writing might be on the wall for a similar result following Brisbane’s 85-point win over Collingwood last week.
Even without Eric Hipwood, the Lions’ forward line has been dominant over the last two weeks kicking a combined 46 goals against Freo and the Pies.
Given the fact West Coast ranks fifth in goals allowed, Brisbane might be the safest bet this weekend.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line
There are a number of superlatives to describe what is no doubt a potential Grand Final preview between first and second on Saturday night.
Simply put, a win for Geelong should see them finish on top of the ladder (unless Port wins big, of course), gifting them the opportunity to host a qualifying final at god knows where.
For Melbourne, it’s even easier: win and the minor premiership belongs to the Dees.
Lose, however, and the Demons could face a tough start to the finals against either the Dogs or Port.
The Cats will head in as the short-priced favourites with home-field advantage, but that really doesn’t mean much against a Melbourne outfit that has lost only one game outside of Victoria all year.
Dees fans can also feel confident knowing they belted the Cats by 25 points at the MCG back in Round 4, while the fact Jack Viney, Tom McDonald and Steven May are all set to return to the side is an obvious plus.
Given their long history of choking, no one would blame you for feeling a little nervous about backing the Dees, but there’s no denying how well they’ve played since losing to the Dogs three weeks ago.
Geelong, on the other hand, has just scraped by against the likes of North and St Kilda during that same time frame, with a slow start against GWS costing them two weeks ago at the Cattery.
This game is sure to go down to the wire, but since they’ve arguably been the best team all season, Melbourne is simply too good to ignore at the current value.
Tip: Back the Dees to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Barring the unlikely event West Coast beats Brisbane at the Gabba, the Giants are basically guaranteed a finals spot no matter what happens this weekend.
If they defeat the hapless Blues and both the Lions and Pies win, GWS can venture as high as seventh, setting up a huge ‘Battle of the Bridge’ Derby next week against rivals Sydney.
Not surprisingly, the Giants will head into their finals home and away clash as the heavy favourites against a Carlton team that is basically counting down the days until season’s end.
After another lost year, David Teague’s days are basically numbered as Blues head coach, and with so much uncertainty going on off the field, it’s hard to imagine the players’ minds will be focused entirely on this weekend’s game.
To make matters worse, the Giants won by 36 points over the Blues when they met back in June, extending GWS’ winning streak over Carlton to four.
Coming off two huge wins over Geelong and reigning premiers Richmond, the Giants are probably as close to a lock as you can get.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (-21.5 Points) @ $1.90
The chances of the Saints and the Dockers playing finals are relatively low, but for the sake of the article, we’ll still entertain the prospect of one of these teams somehow sneaking in.
Fremantle can make it if they win, but they also need two of the Blues, Pies or Lions to finish eighth.
As for the Saints, they need to make up a huge percentage gap by winning big, as well as victories from the Lions, Pies and Hawks.
As you can already tell, betting on this game is close to impossible, just like the scenarios above.
The last three contests between the Saints and Dockers have been decided by no more than a goal, so with no venue confirmed at time of publish, it might be worth sitting on the fence.
Tip: Either Side to Win by Less Than 15.5 Points @ $3.00
The footy gods have delivered a mouth-watering clash on Sunday between rivals Essendon and Collingwood at the ‘G.
The season is over for the Pies, but they’ll relish the chance at spoiling Essendon’s finals hopes whilst simultaneously avenging their ANZAC Day belting back in April.
If Essendon win they’re guaranteed to finish eighth thanks to West Coast’s loss last week, but they could go as high as seventh if the Blues upset the Giants.
Either way, there’s plenty for Bomber fans to be excited about, but given the recent history of this club, a win is far from a guarantee – particularly against a feisty Collingwood outfit.
The Pies were very flat last week against the Lions in their 85-point loss, but you never really know what you’re going to get from them week-to-week.
Following a couple of tough away trips to Tassie and Brisbane, getting back to Melbourne could help Collingwood end the season on something of a high-note with an eye towards bigger things next year.
Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line
A battle between the bottom two clubs brings the final round of home and away action to a close on Sunday, and not surprisingly, we’re faced with almost even money on offer as both the Crows and North look to snap three-game losing streaks.
Adelaide has battled its way through injury for the better part of the season, while North has endured several up and down spurts of form.
Really, this game is tough to get overly excited about from a betting perspective, particularly after Adelaide won by 41 points when these two sides last got together earlier in April.
Finding confidence in either side is very tough, but fortunately, the stats do most of the talking for us.
Adelaide and North both rank bottom two in goals allowed this season, while it’s also worth noting eight of their last 11 meetings have gone Over the Total.
Tip: Over 158.5 Total Points @ $1.88
2020
Business is about pick up with just one round remaining before finals.
The fight for a spot inside the eight remains as the Crows, Hawks and Power all look to make a late finals push, setting up a handful of do-or-die scenarios around the league.
With a huge top-four encounter to look forward to on Sunday between the Tigers and Lions, Round 23 shapes up as a tough one to pick for punters.
Fortunately, we’ve previewed everything you need to know below.
These two sides can rest easy knowing they’ll both play finals, but Collingwood will still fancy themselves a chance at the top four if results go their way.
The Pies would not only need to win convincingly on Friday night against the Bombers, they’d also need the Lions to beat Richmond on Sunday afternoon. Stranger things have happened, but when you consider only four points separated these two back on Anzac Day, it’s difficult to see the Dons losing by much.
John Worsfold’s side will play finals for the first time since 2017 thanks to a resounding 32-point win over the Dockers last week.
The Dons, helped out by the inclusion of Adam Saad and Michael Hurley, ran riot over the Dockers from the second quarter onwards – although the Bombers failed to win just about every major statistical category.
After a bit of a late season slump, Collingwood has also steadied winning their third straight game last week against the Crows. The Pies looked sharp inside 50 as Jamie Elliott earned a five-goal bag, leaving Collingwood as the favourites ahead of this week’s blockbuster clash at the ‘G.
You can expect something close to a sold-out crowd on Friday night, which should play a huge part for both clubs.
The Dons have lost three straight games to Collingwood dating back to last season, but with a finals spot secured, you can expect Essendon to approach this game with plenty of hunger and passion.
Unfortunately, the Bombers complete lack of defence down back last week spells trouble against one of the top five goal kicking sides in the competition. To make matters worse, the Dons also rank top five in inside 50’s allowed to opponents, which should help Collingwood on their way to victory.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.04
Sydney’s 53-point win over the Dees last week came as a shock to many, but what won’t come as a surprise is Buddy Franklin’s late inclusion to play his 300th game.
Milestones aside, the Swans still find themselves as the heavy favourites at home as they prepare to host the Saints in their final game of the season.
St. Kilda are still licking their wounds following last week’s heartbreaking 10-point loss to the Blues, and things aren’t about to get any easier on the road.
The Saints haven’t won at the SCG over the Swans since 2009, and with both sides looking to end their season on a high note, you can expect plenty of fight on Saturday afternoon.
On paper, this game shapes up as a bit of a coin flip, but it’s worth noting the Swans have typically been a much stronger side in the second half compared to the first.
Sydney also holds a perfect 4-0 record as the home favourite against St. Kilda, and considering this is their first game at home in just under a month, you can bet the Swans will look to send their fans home with a win.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: St. Kilda/Sydney @ $6.25
The Roos and the Dees head south to Tasmania on Saturday with nothing more than bragging rights on the line.
While a win won’t mean much in terms of the ladder, both clubs will be looking to end the year on a high note after a disappointing season.
North responded to their shocking loss against Geelong with an 86-point belting over Port last week. Ben Brown’s 10 goal bag puts him in the driver’s seat for the Coleman Medal, and with home-field advantage, it’s no surprise to find the Roos at a very short price.
Melbourne’s season hit a new low last week as the Dees failed to fire at home to the Swans. It was the same old story from Simon Goodwin’s side as Melbourne once again looked good on the stat sheet but failed to convert in front of goal.
Considering this is the first meeting between the Roos and the Dees this year, it’s tough to know what to expect on Saturday.
On one hand, North has won four of their last five games against Melbourne, but it’s worth noting the Dees do hold a convincing 2-0 record as the line underdog on the road against the Roos.
The line has been set at 24.5 points this week, which does look a little generous considering North ranks fourth in goals allowed this season.
With rain also forecast for Saturday, don’t be surprised if Melbourne keeps this close.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (+24.5 Points) @ $1.91
The importance of Saturday’s game can’t be overstated as the Cats look to bounce back from last week’s meltdown at the Gabba.
Geelong led by as many as three goals at half time, right before allowing the Lions to comeback in the fourth to steal a one-point victory.
The loss leaves the Cats sitting second on the ladder with plenty on the line. A big win over Carlton and a Lions loss could see Geelong reclaim first spot on percentage, while a loss and a West Coast or Richmond win would see Geelong concede second on the ladder.
Fortunately, Chris Scott’s side heads back to The Cattery this week – a ground Carlton haven’t won at since 1996. The Blues were triumphant last week in a 10-point victory over St. Kilda but having lost four of their last five to Geelong, it’s very difficult to back any kind of upset.
With that said, there’s nothing stopping the Blues from keeping this game close. Geelong’s form of late screams danger ahead of the finals, while Carlton can take pride in the fact their last four losses have come by no more than 30-points.
It’s also worth noting that three of the last five meetings between these two clubs have been decided by 1-39 points. The Cats should prove too good in the end, but with a point to prove ahead of the offseason, the Blues should keep things interesting.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10
A game against the Gold Coast is often a great opportunity to regroup, but the Giants can’t afford to take Saturday’s game lightly.
A loss this week would be catastrophic for Leon Cameron’s side as they currently sit just four points clear of the eighth-place Bulldogs. The Giants will play finals from here, but they need to win if they wish to secure home-field advantage in the elimination final.
Should GWS lose, they could potentially fall all the way down to eighth on the ladder, meaning an away trip to the MCG in a fortnight’s time. And after last year’s early exit against Collingwood, that’s the last thing the Giants need.
As far as form goes, the Giants track record at Metricon is far from pretty. In five games since 2012, GWS has managed only two victories.
On the flip side though, the Suns are in shambles. Gold Coast managed only two goals in the first half against the Hawks last week, and while there were some brief periods of promise, ultimately the Suns went on to lose by 70-points.
It’s very difficult to find any faith in the Giants right now, especially on the heels of two straight losses. This should be the confidence boost GWS needs though, and with a 4-2 record as the away favourite at the line, back the Giants to win comfortably.
Tip: Back GWS to Cover the Line (-47.5 Points) @ $1.90
These two clubs are in firm control of their own destiny on Saturday night.
In the aftermath of last week’s six-point loss to Richmond, the third-place Eagles still stand a slim chance at finishing on top of the ladder should results go their way.
Perhaps the best West Coast can hope for though is second on the ladder, which seems likely as they prepare to face a very dangerous looking Hawthorn side.
The Hawks enjoyed a cruisy game last week against the Suns as they farewelled Jarryd Roughead in style. The scenario for the Hawks now is simple: win in Perth, and hope the Crows beat the Bulldogs.
Stranger things have happened, and while a trip to Optus Stadium to face the reigning premiers is never easy, you can never doubt an Alastair Clarkson coached side.
The last time the Hawks won out West against the Eagles was back in 2015, but if Hawthorn can dominate the inside 50, and more importantly, kick straight, they should stand a strong chance at pulling off a huge upset.
For as good as the Eagles are, they aren’t unbeatable at home. West Coast has lost twice at Optus this year, but given how generous the line looks, it’s worth playing it safe on the Hawks to keep things close.
Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+25.5 Points) @ $1.90
This should be a gem of a game from Ballarat.
The Bulldogs find themselves in the eight for now, but a win is crucial if they wish to hold off the Hawks, Crows and Power.
Adelaide, meanwhile, need a miracle to play finals. Firstly, the Crows need to win by plenty, while a Hawthorn and Port Adelaide loss would also help the cause.
Winning against the Bulldogs in Ballarat is never easy, particularly for a Crows side left reeling following a 66-point loss to the Pies at home.
Adelaide was smashed in the disposal and inside 50 counts last week against Collingwood, which spells bad news against a Bulldogs side that ranks top five in both categories.
Given what’s at stake, this game should be a close call, but the Dogs arguably look the scariest side in the competition right now.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.06
Forget game of the round, this might turn out to be game of the year.
Top of the table Brisbane travels to the ‘G on Sunday afternoon to face the Tigers with so much on the line. A win for the Lions would secure their spot on the ladder, while Richmond could leapfrog Geelong and West Coast for second should they emerge victorious.
It wasn’t pretty, but Brisbane’s fourth-quarter effort against Geelong reminded everyone to never count out Chris Fagan’s side.
Likewise, the same goes for the Tigers, who found themselves down by four goals at quarter-time to the Eagles. Richmond mounted a comeback once the weather turned bad, winding up 88-82 victors thanks to a brilliant goal from Jack Riewoldt.
This is a huge test for both clubs, but considering Brisbane’s track record at the MCG, all eyes will be on the competition frontrunners. The Lions haven’t won at the ‘G since 2014, while fans won’t hold particularly fond memories of their 93-point loss to the Tigers last year.
For Richmond, the Lions pose a big challenge to the backline. Charlie Cameron has been electric over the last month to rank fourth in the Coleman race, while playmakers like Mitch Robinson and Dayne Zorko also pose a threat.
Considering the Lions have lost 12 straight to the Tigers dating back to 2009 though, it’s hard to back against Richmond. Brisbane’s lack of familiarity with the ‘G should play a small part, and while the Lions are capable of keeping this close, this could turn out as a learning curve for Fagan’s side.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.02
The Dockers have nothing left to play for, but they’ll be hoping to spoil Port’s party as the Power try and sneak into the finals.
Fremantle’s 32-point loss to the Bombers last week came as a surprise, especially after dominating on the stat sheet.
The Power’s 86-point loss to North was the biggest shock of the weekend though, a result that leaves Port sitting 11th on the ladder needing a miracle.
These two sides last played each other back in Round 13, a game the Dockers won at home quite comfortably. Port has now lost two straight to Freo, but considering Ross Lyon’s side hasn’t won down south against the Power since 2012, it’s not hard to understand why the Dockers are the underdogs this week.
The Dockers are 2-7 as the away underdog this season, compared to the Power, who are a perfect 4-0 as the home favourite against Fremantle.
A win still mightn’t be enough to secure a finals spot, but with their season on the line, the Power should triumph against a Fremantle side that’s lost its last four games away from home.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.00
2018
The home/away season boils down to Round 23, and for teams desperately trying to claw their way into the eight, it’s now or never as the season comes to a close.
After weeks of speculation, the Top 8 now looks set barring a few minor changes that could potentially take place.
Are Geelong in for good? And how will the Top 2 shape up?
There’s plenty of questions ahead of another big round of footy, and all of our 2018 AFL Round 23 tips can be found below!
Essendon are done and dusted, but Port Adelaide? Not so fast.
The Power will need results to also go their way, but all they can do this week is win.
Unfortunately, that’s no guarantee against this Bombers lineup, as the reigning premiers nearly found out last week.
Essendon looked cooked by half time, but the Dons fought back to give the Tigers a scare behind three Cale Hooker goals.
Port, well last weeks game wasn’t so much a scare as it was a hiding.
It was always a tough ask for the Power to take down Collingwood at the MCG, but a 51-point flogging?
That just shouldn’t happen to a team with this much talent.
You could argue the Power don’t deserve to play finals after their efforts over the course of the last month.
You only have to rewind back to Round 4 to see how this one might play out on Friday as well – Port were once again underwhelming against Essendon losing by as many as 22-points.
On that day in particular, Jake Stringer went bananas booting four goals while Dyson Heppell racked up 31 disposals.
Of course, that game was at Etihad, so we may see a different story unfold at Adelaide Oval this week.
If Port really are to win this game though, their back line will need to knuckle down.
Collingwood booted 17 goals to 13 behinds last week, showing just how much worse the scoreboard could have been if the Pies kicked straight.
The Bombers no doubt have the firepower to convert in front of the sticks, and Jarrod Lienert or Jack Hombsch will have their hands full with Stringer and Orazio Fantasia should he choose to play.
With all that in mind, take the Bombers in an upset.
Tip: Back Essendon To Win @ $2.50
Same Game Multi: Essendon To Win, Jake Stringer 2+ Goals, Under 172.5 Points
Finals may have been in doubt three weeks ago, but the Cats look home and hosed heading towards September now.
Barring the unthinkable, a second straight home game should see Geelong play finals in a couple of weeks.
The Cats luck of the draw saw them comfortably beat Fremantle last week, and with the Suns up next, Geelong can enjoy another cruisy week before things start to get serious.
Although it is the Suns, coach Chris Scott will be wary not to take this game too lightly.
Gold Coast came so close to knocking off the Lions last week, and as we saw six weeks ago against the Swans, the Suns can pull a rabbit out of their hat every so often.
Gold Coast were particularly impressive inside their own fifty against Brisbane.
The Cats, as well as every other club, now knows the name Alex Sexton, as the 24-year old booted a four-goal bag while also notching 19 disposals.
For the Cats, Sexton will be a hot topic at training this week.
He’s the only Suns player that poses a serious threat in front of goal, while on the other hand, Gold Coast will need to contain Tom Hawkins this week.
A game removed from handing Fremantle their worst loss in club history, as well as scoring 23 unanswered goals (six of which belong to Hawkins) it’s so hard to Geelong letting this huge opportunity slip.
The finals bell tolls for thee, and since there’s really no value to be had in this market, it’s best to let it be.
Tip: No Bet
The Dogs want this season over, while the fun is just getting started for the Tigers.
Richmond survived a late scare from the Bombers last week to hold on for an eight-point win.
The Dogs also cracked the winners circle themselves, trouncing Carlton by 17 points to earn their third straight victory.
Since these clubs haven’t met this season, we have to rewind all the way back to Round 7 last year to get a feel for what just might happen.
Of course, as the scoreline indicates, things were a little different back then.
The Dogs won by five-points in a thriller, the same night Jack Riewoldt kicked his 500th goal.
This time around, we should expect things to be a little less, well… close.
The Dogs have had their wins, and they can walk away proud of what has been an injury ravaged season, but it’s unlikely Jack Macrae and Mitch Wallis can contain the Tigers elite class of talent.
Perhaps the only chance the Dogs have of an upset here is if Damien Hardwick decides to rest a bunch of his stars.
Richmond looked a little vulnerable minus Trent Cotchin last week, but overall, this looks a little beyond Luke Beveridge’s side.
Tip: Over 169.5 Points @ $1.84
Same Game Multi: Tigers To Win, Over 169.5 Points, Dustin Martin 30+ Disposals
This game might look plain on paper, but there’s a lot at stake for the Pies this week.
A win, and Collingwood secures a home final and potentially a spot inside the Top 2.
A loss, well it opens the door for Hawthorn to steal their place as well as the possibility of falling to fifth on the ladder.
For Collingwood to achieve their goal, they simply need to rely on their forward line.
Jordan de Goey was phenomenal once again last week in booting a pair of goals, and if Will Hoskin-Elliott can find the same form he showed last time the Pies faced the Dockers, this should be a walk in the park.
For Fremantle to spoil the party, they’ll need the crowd on their side and a miracle from the center clearances.
The Dockers were handed their worst defeat in club history last week losing by 133-points to Geelong, but while Freo fans just want this season over, there’s one last chance to end the season on a high note.
With such a long and what should be turbulent offseason ahead though, it’s an unlikely scenario for Fremantle.
Coach Ross Lyon is on a burning hot seat, and aside from Nat Fyfe, so is the playing group after last week’s poor effort.
Matching up now with one of the competitions Top 3 scoring sides likely results in another blowout for the miserable Dockers.
Tip: Back Collingwood To Win 40+ @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Collingwood 40+ Jordan de Goey 2+ Goals, Over 169.5 Total Points
Carlton have the wooden spoon wrapped up, but there’s a chance to end a very forgettable season on a high note this week against the Crows.
Adelaide will be keen to get this season over with themselves, but their victory over North Melbourne last week at least salvaged some bragging rights for last seasons Grand Final runner-up.
Now heading back to Melbourne, the Crows will be hoping their midfield talent can see them over the line comfortably this week.
The Blues are in search for their third win of the season, but they’ll have to find a way to shutdown Mitch McGovern and Josh Jenkins – the pair combined for eight goals when these two teams met back in Round 7.
The Blues have shown plenty of poise over the last month, but again, they have nothing to show for it.
Adelaide have won four straight games over the Blues dating back to 2014, and if Matt Crouch can continue to earn plenty of the ball, this one should hardly be close.
Perhaps the only thing Carlton fans can find home in, is the Crows average interstate record.
Adelaide have won just three games away from home this year, with their last trip to Melbourne resulting in a 47-point thumping at the hands of the Tigers.
This one could be closer than we think, but the Crows should get it done.
Tip: Back Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $2.55
Same Game Multi: Crows 1-39, Under 178.5 Points, Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals
Now this is the one to watch.
The battle for second place on the ladder is huge, and although Sydney can’t quite make it that high, the Swans could still find themselves Top 3 by the end of the round.
The history between these two clubs is well established, featuring Grand Finals and regular season thrillers, but there’s always one other key component to this rivalry: Buddy Franklin.
It hasn’t always been easy, but Buddy fares pretty well against his former club.
The star full forward has kicked 21 career goals against Hawthorn, and on the back of a five-goal game against the Giants last week, you have to like Buddy’s chances at kicking another bag.
For the Hawks, there were plenty of worrying signs on display last week.
Alastair Clarkson’s side failed to kick a goal in the fourth quarter, relying on nothing but two behinds to see themselves over the line against the Saints.
That’s been the story of Hawthorn’s season really, great one week, average the next.
The Hawks look lethal when the ball is in the hands of Luke Breust or Tom Mitchell, but there’s still a lot to be desired in the back line aside from Ben Stratton.
For punters, that’s probably not what you want to hear as the Hawks prepare for the Swans this week.
To make matters worse, remember the name Ben Ronke?
He booted seven goals on the Hawks last time these two met back in Round 8, a game Sydney won narrowly by eight points.
Now heading back to the SCG, this looks mighty tough for the Hawks.
They’ve stood tall as the underdogs for most of the season, but unless they can find some pressure and win the clearance battle – two areas they lacked last time they met the Swans – this one should belong to the Swans.
Tip: Back Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $2.02
Same Game Multi: Swans 1-39, Tom Mitchell 34 Or More Disposals
The Lions might just hold the Eagles’ fate in their very hands.
This game at The Gabba is huge as far as the rest of the ladder is concerned, and you can expect both Collingwood and Hawthorn to be watching with plenty of interest.
After last weeks disappointment against Melbourne at home, this is must-win if West Coast wish to secure a home final.
Beat the Lions and the Eagles will finish second on the ladder, but lose, well there’s no telling how dire the consequences might be.
West Coast’s lack of playmaking ability was on full display last week, a worrying sign heading toward September.
Not for the first time this season, the fourth quarter seemed to trip up the hosts, as the Eagles managed just three goals and a behind from the half time siren to the full time siren.
As for the Lions, goals weren’t a problem against the Suns, but momentum was.
Brisbane were up comfortably come quarter time, and it looked as though the Lions were far too classy for their nextdoor neighbors.
Wouldn’t you know it though, the Lions let a handy lead slip, as the game turned into a last minute Q-Clash thriller.
The last time these two met at The Gabba, the Eagles handed Brisbane a demoralizing 131-82 loss back in 2016.
Things have changed a little since then however, and all it will take is for the Lions to bring the same pressure they’ve been showing all season to the field on Sunday.
With so many stars out, this is a game Chris Fagan’s side will feel like they can win.
There’s no finals on the line, but a win over the Eagles would more than exceed expectations of the baby Lions and set them up with a ton of confidence entering 2019.
And is there any chance of that?
It wouldn’t be the first time the Eagles have let a good thing slip away.
Tip: Back the Lions To Win @ $2.60
Same Game Multi: Lions To Win, Eric Hipwood 2+ Goals
This game always looked like it could be Melbourne’s biggest downfall, but now that the Dees have secured a spot in the finals, we should be in for a classic.
The Giants hung tight with the Swans last week, but the absence of Josh Kelly was pretty noticeable.
GWS lost every statistical category bar hit-outs, and despite dominating the first half, Phil Davis finally came undone against Buddy Franklin allowing the superstar to kick five goals.
Melbourne, well what can you say? It was a moment like no other, and after 254 games of finals-less footy, it was nice to see Nathan Jones make it to September.
The Dees were savage in the final term, locking the ball down for stoppage after stoppage going on to kick nine second half goals with Jake Melksham leading the way.
Since we’re unsure just how healthy the Giants will be heading into this clash, the Demons enter as the early favourites at around the $1.50 mark.
Melbourne also hold the home field advantage this week, and since the Dees held on for a two-point thriller against the Giants at the G’ back in 2016, this one could be just as close.
Much of the game will be decided in the ruck, which certainly favors the Demons at this point.
Kelly looks to be on his way to returning for the Giants, but if Heath Shaw does indeed miss a second straight game, it will be hard to back GWS this week.
Tip: Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points) @ $1.92
Same Game Multi: Melbourne To Win, Under 179.5 Points, Under 22.5 Goals
North Melbourne’s finals hopes came to a screeching halt last week against the Crows.
It was do-or-die for the Roos down in Adelaide, but with Ben Brown held goalless, North’s season came to a disappointing end after so much promise.
With nothing but bragging rights left on the line, this is a chance for the Roos to end 2018 on a high note. After last weeks mighty effort against the Hawks, the same goes for St. Kilda, and with some doubt still surrounding coach Alan Richardson, a Saints win might just secure the coach for the future.
When these two met back in Round 2, it was a no contest. North pumped the Saints by 52-points, a game that saw Brown boot a whopping six goals.
It’s likely we see the same fate play out once again this week, as the Saints back line should struggle to hold down not only Brown, but Majak Daw and Mason Wood.
Tip: Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.12
Same Game Multi: North Melbourne 1-39, Over 181.5 Points
2017
This is the final round of the 2017 AFL regular season and we still have no clear idea exactly which eight teams will qualify for the AFL Finals.
Essendon, West Coast, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are all still vying for eighth position and there are a number of games this weekend that are simply must-win.
There are plenty of games in the AFL this weekend where there is very little between the two sides in betting and that means that there are plenty of attractive betting opportunities.
This will be an emotional game for both these sides as the Western Bulldogs farewell Bob Murphy and Hawthorn say goodbye to Luke Hodge.
The Bulldogs still have a very small chance of playing finals football and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The way that the Bulldogs have responded when their season has been on the line has been disappointing and they have been a losing betting play as favourites this season.
They have won ten of their past 15 games as the punter’s elect, but they are a very poor 4-11 against the line in this scenario.
Hawthorn had their finals hopes ended by their surprise loss to Carlton last weekend and they go into this clash with nothing to play for but pride.
The Hawks have won six of their past 15 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 9-6 against the line when being given a start.
This is the type of game that Hawthorn really do thrive in and they offer some value at their current quote of $2.05.
Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2.05
Melbourne will return to the finals for the first time since 2006 and they will go into this clash with Collingwood as clear favourites.
The Demons have held their nerve in recent weeks when many expected them to falter and it will be interesting to see how they perform now they have locked in a finals berth.
Melbourne have won seven of their past 11 games as favourites and they are an extremely poor 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood go into this clash on the back of defeats at the hands of both Port Adelaide and Geelong, but they were not disgraced in either fixture.
The Magpies have won only three of their past 11 games as underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 9-2 against the line when being given a start.
Collingwood are more than capable of competing with top eight sides when they play at their best and they can upstage Melbourne’s finals celebration.
Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)
The wooden spoon and the number one draft pick will both be on the line when the Brisbane Lions face North Melbourne on Saturday afternoon.
Brisbane have played some solid football in the second half of the season and they will go into this clash with North Melbourne as clear favourites.
The Lions have played only one game as favourites this season, but they were able to get the job done comfortably and they are clearly keen to finish the season on a positive.
North Melbourne have won only one of their past 11 games and they were no match for St Kilda last weekend.
The Kangaroos have won only one of their past 10 games as away underdogs and they are a middling 5-5 against the line.
There has been plenty to like about the way that Brisbane have finished this season and they can avoid the wooden spoon with a comfortable win over North Melbourne.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)
The Sydney Swans can still secure a top four finish with a win over Carlton and they go into this clash as clear favourites.
Sydney once again showed why they are genuine premiership favourites when they beat Adelaide last Friday night and they head into the AFL Finals in simply outstanding form.
The Swans have won eight of their past 13 games as favourites and they are 7-6 against the line in this scenario, but they did lose to Carlton earlier this season.
Carlton ended their losing streak with a win over Hawthorn last weekend and they will take confidence from the fact that they beat Sydney earlier in the year.
The Blues have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario and have been a better side than the market has suggested this season.
This is a match that the market looks to have got about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
This is a huge game for both these sides.
Geelong can leapfrog Greater Western and finish second if they win this clash, while the Giants will keep alive their chances of winning the minor premiership with a victory.
It is Geelong that will start this clash as favourites and it is well known how hard they are to beat at Simonds Stadium.
Geelong have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites for a profit, but they are only 2-7 against the line in this scenario for a large loss.
Greater Western Sydney made it four wins on the trot with their victory over West Coast and they may be finding their best form at the right time of the season.
The Giants have won their two games as away underdogs this season and they are a team that is very difficult to beat when they get on a role.
Greater Western Sydney should have too much class for Geelong and can keep the minor premiership alive for at least another 24 hours.
Back GWS Giants To Win @ $2
Port Adelaide can keep their chances of a top four finish alive with a win over the Gold Coast Suns and they are dominant favourites to do just that.
The Power made it back-to-back wins with a strong win over the Western Bulldogs and these are the types of games that Port Adelaide have had little trouble winning this season.
They have won seven of their nine games as home favourites for a clear profit an they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
It has been another season to forget for the Suns and they look set to finish this season with eight straight defeats.
Gold Coast have lost their past eight games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 2-6 against the line in this scenario.
The line for this clash is massive, but Port Adelaide beat Gold Coast by over 70 points earlier this season and a repeat could be on the cards.
Back Port Adelaide To beat The Line (-49.5 Points)
Fremantle have won their past four games against Essendon, but it is the Bombers that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Essendon will secure a top eight finish with a win in this clash, but they haven’t been overly impressive as favourites this season.
The Bombers have won four of their past seven games as favourites and they are 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle have produced two putrid efforts in their past two games against Sydney and Richmond and it really is tough to have any faith in them off those efforts.
The Dockers have won only three of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
The line for this clash does seem excessive and it would not surprise if Fremantle are able to give Essendon something of a scare.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (+41.5 Points)
Richmond will secure a top four finish with a victory in this clash, while St Kilda will still be in finals contention if Essendon lose.
St Kilda flogged Richmond earlier this season, but it is the Tigers that will go into this clash as favourites following their big win over Fremantle last weekend.
Richmond have proven to be a strangely reliable betting proposition as favourites this season – they have won nine of their past 12 games as the punter’s elect and they are 8-4 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda kept their finals hopes alive with a win over North Melbourne last weekend, but their is every chance they will be out of finals contention by the time this clash rolls round.
The Saints have won only four of their past 12 games as underdogs for a clear loss and they are only a middling 6-6 against the line in this situation.
Richmond will likely be the team that has something to play for in this clash and they can finish the regular season with another comfortable win.
Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-18.5 Points)
The results of other games could have a large bearing on this one.
Adelaide will secure the Minor Premiership if Geelong beat Greater Western Sydney, but will be leapfrogged by a Giants win.
West Coast will be out of finals contention if Essendon beat Fremantle, but a Bombers loss would give them the chance to play for a finals berth.
At this stage it is Adelaide that will start this clash as favourites and this is a position in which they have thrived this season.
The Crows have won seven of their past ten games as away favourites and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
West Coast have struggled badly for consistency this season and their finals hopes took a big hit with their defeat at the hands of Greater Western Sydney last weekend.
Domain Stadium has not been the fortress it once was for the Eagles, but they did win their only game as home underdogs this season and they will be keen to send both Matthew Priddis and Sam Mitchell out as winners.
There are a number of variables that make this clash a tough one to analyse from a betting stand point, so at this stage I will be staying out.
No Bet
2016
The final weekend of the 2016 AFL regular season is here!
The top eight may already be decided but the jostling for positions heading into the finals is on in earnest, with an incredible four teams sitting on 64 competition points.
Just about every game this weekend will have some sort of finals relevance and there will be plenty of interest in all nine fixtures!
The Adelaide Crows have won seven of their past eight games and they go into this clash with an outside chance of winning the minor premiership.
Adelaide still haven’t really received the credit that they are due in recent weeks, but they are genuine premiership contenders and playing an outstanding brand of football.
Their record at Adelaide Oval this season has been outstanding – they are 6-1 as home favourites and are 4-3 against the line.
West Coast will finish in the top eight, but a top four finish is beyond them.
They showed that they are not a spent force with their big win over Hawthorn last weekend although this clash against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval is completely different challenge.
West Coast have won just one of their four games as away underdogs this season and their record against the line in this scenario is identical.
Adelaide have far more to play for in this clash and they are a good bet to record a comfortable victory over their finals rivals.
Back Adelaide Crows To Beat The Line (-23.5 Points)
Geelong are another club that remain in the minor premiership hunt and they also need to win in order to secure a top four finish.
Geelong made it six wins on the trot with a comprehensive victory over the Brisbane Lions and they will start this game as clear favourites against a Melbourne side that now has nothing left to play for.
The Cats still remain a fairly average outfit from a betting standpoint and they have been a losing side as home favourites in both head-to-head and line betting markets.
Melbourne threw away any chance they had of playing finals football this season with their disgraceful performance against Carlton last weekend.
This will be a real test of the character of this young side – they can dig in for the fight or give up the drum completely in what they would consider to be a meaningless clash.
One positive for the Demons is that they have thrived as away underdogs this season and they are a highly impressive 6-2 against the line in this scenario.
I am going to give Melbourne a chance to redeem themselves in this fixture and I am happy to back them with a start of 32.5 points.
Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+32.5 Points)
This is one of only three games this weekend that will not have any baring on the top eight.
Essendon will obviously be extremely pleased to see the back of the 2016 AFL season, while Carlton will head into this game with some confidence following their big win over Melbourne.
Carlton will start this game as a clear favourite and this will be just the fifth time they have been in this position this season, with the Blues having a 2-2 record in this scenario in both head-to-head and line betting markets.
Essendon were not disgraced against the Western Bulldogs last weekend and there is some evidence to suggest they could give Carlton a scare this weekend.
In saying that, the line of 20.5 points is not overly generous and I am happy to finish the season the way that I started it – not betting on games involved Essendon.
No Bet
The Sydney Swans are in the box-seat to claim the AFL Minor Premiership and will all but secure this title with a win over Richmond.
Sydney made it five wins on the trot with a hard-fought victory over North Melbourne and they will start this game as extremely short-priced favourites.
The Swans are 9-3 as home favourites this season in head-to-head betting for a narrow loss, but they are 8-4 against the line for a nice profit.
There is no doubt that Richmond have now given up on this season and they were simply woeful against St Kilda last weekend.
Richmond have now lost their past six games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this situation is a very poor 1-5.
The line for this clash is very large, but Sydney will have the opportunity to use this as a statement clash heading into the finals and score a big victory.
Back Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (-45.5 Points)
This is another game that will not have any influence over the top eight.
Both the Gold Coast Suns and Port Adelaide have had seasons that they would like to forget, but it is the Power that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Port Adelaide have won just one of their past four games, but they are 4-3 against the line as away favourites this season and have been a winning betting play in this scenario.
The Gold Coast made it four loses on the trot with their defeat at the hands of Collingwood last weekend and they are set for another finish in the bottom four.
Gold Coast have not won a single game as home underdogs this season and their record against the line has been just as poor.
Port Adelaide may have struggled this season, but they are still a better outfit than the Gold Coast Suns and they should be able to finish the year with a comfortable victory.
Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-15.5 Points)
North Melbourne are yet to suffer a loss at the hands of the Greater Western Sydney Giants, but it is the Giants that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Greater Western Sydney can keep alive their chances of a top four finish with a win this weekend – although they will still need to rely on other results.
The Giants have failed to fire at times on the road this season and they are a non-profitable 6-3 as away favourites, while they are 3-6 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne will finish eighth no matter what happens this weekend and head into this following a credible defeat at the hands of Sydney.
The Kangaroos have lost both of their games as home underdogs this season, but they are 2-0 against the line in this situation.
North Melbourne are more than capable of giving Greater Western Sydney a scare in front of their home fans and I am happy to back the Kangaroos with a start of 14.5 points.
Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (+14.5 Points)
This is the final game of the weekend that will not have any influence on the make-up of the top eight.
St Kilda have laid the foundation for a charge to the finals next season and they will be keen to finish the year off with a victory over a team that they really should be beating.
The Saints ground out an ugly win over Richmond last weekend and there is plenty to suggest that they will not have any problems making it two wins on the trot.
St Kilda are 2-0 as home favourites in both head-to-head and line betting markets this season, while their recent record against the Brisbane Lions has been strong.
It has been another season from hell for the Lions and it is tough to see them finishing with a win this weekend.
Brisbane have won just one of their 11 games as away underdogs this season and they are a truly putrid 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
A big win looks likely for St Kilda and I am happy to back them to cover the hefty line of 48.5 points.
Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (-48.5 Points)
This is a crucial game for Hawthorn as they need to win to secure a place in the top four.
Hawthorn lost their grip on the minor premiership with their loss to the West Coast Eagles last weekend and a fourth place finish now looks likely.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Hawthorn will have no trouble bouncing back to winning form – they are 11-1 as home favourites this season and haven’t lost back-to-back games for a number of seasons.
They are 4-8 against the line as home favourites this season, but they are 5-1 against the line on the back of a loss.
Collingwood produced an impressive performance to beat the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but they obviously face a much tougher challenge against Hawthorn.
The Magpies have won five of their 13 games as underdogs this season for a healthy profit and they are 7-6 against the line in this situation.
Hawthorn should be able to get the job done this weekend, but there is no real edge at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
The Western Bulldogs currently sit in seventh position and can give themselves a chance of playing a home final with a win over Fremantle this weekend.
The Bulldogs were not overly impressive against Essendon last weekend, but they still did enough to get the job done and I would expect a similar performance this weekend.
Away favourtism is a position in which the Western Bulldogs have thrived this season and they have won five of their six games in that scenario this season.
Fremantle are another team that is looking forward to the off-season and it is tough to see them finishing the season with a victory.
The Dockers have won just one of their past eight games as home underdogs and they are 3-5 against the line against the line in this situation.
The line of 20.5 points does not seem as though it will be enough and the Western Bulldogs should record a comfortable win.
Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-20.5 Points)