ANZAC weekend is always one of the key highlights on the AFL calendar as footy fans flock to the MCG on Sunday for the traditional clash between Collingwood and Essendon.
As if that wasn’t enough, a large crowd will also be in attendance on Saturday when the undefeated Dees take on Richmond in a highly-anticipated ANZAC Eve clash.
With a key game between Geelong and West Coast also on the cards, be sure to find out who we’re tipping ahead of a huge Round 6 of footy here!
Friday, April 23, 7:50pm, Manuka Oval
The Giants are looking to knock off another undefeated side for the second week in a row after taking down the Swans last week in a thriller.
Now 2-3, a last-minute goal from Josh Kelly has gone a long way to helping the Giants get their season back on track, but they’ll likely need to dig even deeper this week against another serious flag contender.
The Dogs, meanwhile, achieved a clean sweep over both Queensland sides with a whopping 62-point win over the Suns last week – a performance that has to leave GWS fans feeling a little nervous.
Luke Beveridge’s team currently leads the league in goals scored, while down the other end, the Dogs remain the toughest side in the competition to score against.
The Giants have held the Dogs’ number winning three of their last five contests, but they won’t hold particularly fond memories of the Bulldogs after losing by 14 points last year.
That being said, this is still a tough away trip for the Dogs in cold Canberra conditions.
The Bulldogs have lost their last two games against the Giants at Manuka Oval, leaving the current line looking a little generous.
If the Giants can win the contested possessions like they did last week against the Swans and also get that same flow through the midfield, they might give this a crack.
Tip: Back GWS to Cover the Line (+19.5 Points) @ $2.00
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, April 24, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
The Swans head to the Gold Coast with redemption in mind after losing a thrilling Sydney Derby last week to rivals GWS.
Sydney’s unbeaten start came to an end thanks to a clutch Josh Kelly goal with less than two minutes remaining, but that may have been the wake-up call the Swans needed with expectations growing week by week.
Fortunately, the Swans have drawn favourably on Friday night with the Suns up next.
Gold Coast suffered a major 62-point loss to the Dogs last week, but the way the Suns limited the damage in the second half has to be commended after kicking only one goal in the first two quarters.
The Suns should also feel good about themselves heading into this contest knowing they’ve won two of their last three games over the Swans.
By the same token though, it is worth noting the Suns haven’t won at Metricon against the Swans in five previous attempts.
Recent history aside, this should be a comfortable bounce-back victory for Sydney, even with Buddy Franklin ruled out for the next month.
The Suns have had a real problem this year limiting their opposition inside 50, which not surprisingly, is one of Sydney’s strong points.
Considering the Swans also rank second to the Dogs in goals scored, and the Suns rank 17th in the same department, the current line looks a little on the short side.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
West Coast Eagles
Saturday, April 24, 1:45pm, GMHBA Stadium
A top eight battle will be staged in Geelong on Saturday afternoon when the Cats play host to the Eagles.
West Coast heads into this game well-rested following last Friday’s big home win over Collingwood, while the Cats are looking to forget all about another underwhelming performance against North Melbourne.
As is always the case when Geelong plays at home, the Cats are heavy favourites to win this clash by double digits.
The Eagles haven’t tasted a win in Geelong since 2006, and based on their struggles away from home already this year, it’s nearly impossible to get on board with any kind of West Coast upset.
To be fair, West Coast did get the better of Geelong when these two sides met in Perth last August, but after blowing two healthy leads against the Bulldogs and Saints in Melbourne this year, don’t be surprised if the Cats squeak home again late.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10
Saturday, April 24, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium
The Lions return to Marvel on Saturday looking to pickup where they left off last week against the Bombers at the Gabba.
Desperate for a win, Chris Fagan’s side produced a stunning 57-point victory over Essendon in torrential conditions to move only one win away from returning to the eight.
Carlton, meanwhile, sits in an equal position to Brisbane at 2-3 on the ladder.
The Blues picked up two crucial wins over Fremantle and the Suns prior to last week’s loss to the Power in Adelaide, and while the final score looks ugly, David Teague has to be proud of the way his side closed the gap in the final quarter by kicking three goals to Port’s one.
Unfortunately, the Lions have been a real thorn in the side of Carlton over the last few years though.
Brisbane won by 17 when these two sides met last year, although on the plus side, it is worth noting the Lions have lost their last two games against Carlton in Melbourne.
Still, Marvel was the site of Brisbane’s memorable win over Collingwood a few weeks ago, and it’s safe to say the added inclusion Daniel McStay made a huge difference for the Lions last week.
If Brisbane can jump all over Carlton early like they did against the Bombers and also force the Blues to play out wide, the Lions should go a long way towards winning their second game in a row.
Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.25
Saturday, April 24, 7:25pm, Marvel Stadium
There is certainly no shortage of storylines heading into Saturday’s epic Anzac Eve clash at the ‘G.
Melbourne will take to the field 5-0 for the first time since 1994, while on a more individual level, both clubs will also celebrate Nathan Jones’ 300th and Dustin Martin’s 250th game milestones.
The Dees had their work cut out last week for three quarters against the Hawks before putting their foot down in the final term to win quite comfortably.
Richmond, on the other hand, shifted from neutral back into fifth gear against the Saints to snap their two-game skid with an impressive 86-point win.
Not surprisingly, the Tigers have dominated this fixture in recent years winning five straight over the Demons dating back to 2016, and it is no real surprise to find the bookies siding with them in the market.
While the Demons have been impressive to start the season, it’s hard to ignore the fact Hawthorn made life very difficult for their forward line last week for the better part of three quarters.
The Hawks also highlighted (in all the wrong ways) that Max Gawn is the key to Melbourne’s chances.
If the Tigers can limit Gawn’s involvement and also play the well-disciplined brand of football that was on full show last week against the Saints, Richmond should prove too strong.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) $1.90
Saturday, April 24, 8:15pm, Optus Stadium
The Dockers were one of the big winners to emerge from Round 6 after picking up a gutsy 12-point win over the Crows in Adelaide.
Many had Freo down as a dark horse heading into the season, and now at 3-2, it’s safe to say they are on everybody’s radar.
A trip back to Perth to face the winless Kangaroos should see the Dockers back into the eight this week if Justin Longmuir’s side can execute a similar game plan.
North has won only two of its last five games against Freo in Perth, while they also suffered mightily at the hands of the Dockers by 64-points when these two sides met on the Gold Coast last year.
The biggest reason for the Dockers’ success last week was their efficient inside 50 entries and the fact they forced the Crows into some costly turnovers.
North will no doubt feel confident heading into this game after giving Geelong a shake last week, but considering they are playing in two of the toughest road environments in back-to-back games, the Dockers should win this comfortably.
Tip: Back the Dockers to Cover the Line (-42.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday, April 25, 12:30pm, UTAS Stadium
The Hawks head back to their second home in Tassie for the first time since 2019 to host a Crows side looking to bounce-back from a narrow defeat last week to the Dockers.
Now at 3-2, another loss could prove detrimental to Adelaide’s finals hopes, while this also shapes as a must-win game for the Hawks if they still hold any finals aspirations.
It appeared as though Hawthorn was on its way to an upset over the Dees last week before the fourth quarter got away from them in a hurry.
It’s been a similar story all season for Alastair Clarkson’s men, but it’s fair to say there are still plenty of promising signs about the Hawks moving forward.
Finding a go-to option up forward has been one of Hawthorn’s biggest problems this year, but they might be able to pinch their second win of the season on Saturday if the back line can keep Taylor Walker under wraps.
The Coleman Medal favourite helped himself to a couple of goals last week, but the Dockers largely showed that the Crows lack any real scoring threat outside of the big Texan.
Aside from the fact the weather always plays a part for the visitors in Tassie, there was also a lot to like about the way the Hawks’ back line operated last week in the first three quarters against Melbourne.
Hawthorn continues to prove a very profitable betting play at the line this year, and if they can piece everything together, the Hawks might just win this.
Tip: Back the Hawks 1-39 @ $2.20
Sunday, April 25, 3:20pm, MCG
The traditional Anzac Day game returns to the fixture this week in what is no doubt a ‘line in the sand’ type game for both clubs.
The Bombers and the Pies both suffered losses last week that has left them sitting 1-4, meaning the loser of Sunday’s game faces a massive uphill battle if they wish to play finals this season.
The bookies are siding with the Pies ever so slightly in betting, but after the Bombers won by 15 when these two sides met last year, this one really is a coin flip.
On one hand, Collingwood was far from disgraced in last week’s loss to West Coast, but it remains to be seen how the Pies respond to the pressure of playing with their season on the line.
The Bombers, meanwhile, failed to show up for a rainy affair against the Lions last week.
The Dons were on the backfoot from the get-go in a demoralizing 57-point loss, although it’s fair to say the Bombers have an excuse with so many key players still missing.
A win for Collingwood over their biggest rival would do wonders for morale, but at the same time, a loss might just be the final straw.
There was absolutely nothing to like about Essendon last week, but it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if a few of their young players stand tall on the biggest stage.
Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday, April 25, 6:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Port looks to have another very winnable game ahead on Sunday against a St Kilda side left reeling from last week’s 86-point loss to Richmond.
With a chance to potentially finish the round on top of the ladder, the Power will only need to look back on last year’s loss to the Saints in Round 8 if they are searching for any added motivation.
Ken Hinkley will be stressing the importance of not over-looking the Saints this week, but if the Power can dominate the inside 50 count and carve up the midfield like they did against Carlton, they are going to be tough to stop.
Prior to last year’s loss, the Power had won six straight at in Adelaide over the Saints – a worrying sign for Brett Ratten’s side as the Saints prepare to leave Melbourne for the first time since Round 1.
Throw in the fact this is basically a matchup between the third-best goal-kicking side and a Saints team that ranks second in goals allowed, and you have the recipe for a comfortable Port win.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
We’re in for four very unpredictable days of footy this weekend with several clubs picking up sticks and relocating to new hubs.
Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Melbourne and the Gold Coast all head south to Sydney, while St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, GWS, Richmond, Carlton and the Western Bulldogs all shift to Queensland.
With all that in mind, it’s no surprise to find plenty of value on offer in just about every market, making this one of the toughest rounds to tip from a betting perspective.
Fortunately, we’ve done all the hard work for you in our complete 2020 AFL Round 6 Preview below.
Thursday, July 9, 7:40pm, SCG
All betting trends can be tossed out the window on Thursday night as the Cats and the Lions meet at the SCG.
Geelong were outstanding last week in their return home to GMHBA where they celebrated Gary Ablett’s 350th game with a 37-point win over his former club.
As for the Lions, Chris Fagan’s side suddenly looks the team to beat after knocking off previously unbeaten Port Adelaide in a 37-point mauling – a result that has seen Brisbane firm into Premiership favourites.
How these two sides respond to playing away from home on a neutral ground remains to be seen, but there certainly won’t be any excuses with both teams fielding relatively unchanged lists.
The Cats and the Lions both rank top three in goals kicked this year, but if you’re looking for a stat to separate these two sides, it’s worth keeping in mind the Lions haven’t played at the SCG since 2017.
We already know the dimensions of the ground make life tough for visiting teams, but it should suit a team like Geelong that is used to playing on a narrower ground at GMHBA.
With some good value at the line, take the Cats to cover.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $2.00
Friday, July 10, 7:50pm, GIANTS Stadium
Hawthorn and Collingwood now find themselves fighting for life outside the eight on the heels of two respective blowouts last week.
Normally this fixture would draw a crowd of 80,000+ at the MCG, but the two sides will have to settle for only 10,000 at GIANTS Stadium.
Collingwood are well familiar with this ground having lost to GWS a fortnight ago.
Likewise, the Hawks suffered the same fate last week in a blowout 34-point loss.
Again, it’s very difficult to know what to expect on neutral ground, but there is a real case to be made for Hawthorn bouncing back.
Collingwood are set to carry on without Jordan de Goey, while it’s worth noting the Hawks have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Pies.
Similar to the big loss against Geelong earlier in the year, Alastair Clarkson will take plenty away from last weeks defeat. The Hawks are also 2-1 against the line on the back of a loss, so it’s worth taking the +5.5 insurance on offer.
Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday, July 11, 12:35pm, Metricon Stadium
The Saints can make it three in a row on Saturday afternoon as they look to further cement themselves in the top four picture with a win over the Dockers.
After a resounding win over the reigning premiers a fortnight ago, the Saints went on to win by 18-points against Carlton in what was their first back-to-back win of the season.
Brett Ratten’s side is now coming off 10 days’ rest, which should come in handy considering the Saints travel up north to the Gold Coast for the first time.
Fremantle, on the other hand, got its first win on the board last week in a back and forth tussle against the winless Crows.
The Dockers might have an edge here having played their last three games at Metricon, but they’ll need to find something special against a very dangerous looking St Kilda forward line.
The Saints haven’t played at Metricon since 2018, but for what it’s worth, they do own a 4-3 record at the ground.
Considering the last three games between these two sides have all gone Under the Total, perhaps a low-scoring game is the most likely outcome.
The Total has also gone Under in Fremantle’s last three games at Metricon, so unlike other matches this weekend, it’s worth backing the trends.
Tip: Under 122.5 Total Points @ $1.87
West Coast Eagles
Saturday, July 11, 3:05pm, Gabba
The end is in sight for West Coast as they look to build on last week’s big win over the Swans ahead of their return to Perth next week.
After three below-average performances in the weeks prior, the Eagles turned up to play last week at Metricon in a 34-point belting against Sydney.
The Crows shape up as easy prey for the Eagles again this week, but with the game being played at the Gabba, Adelaide may not be the worst bet in the world.
West Coast hasn’t won in Brisbane since 2018, while the last three games between these two clubs have all been decided by 12-points or less.
Chances are West Coast are looking ahead to the Western Derby against Fremantle in Round 7 and the chance to get back home to their friends and family.
There’s absolutely nothing to like about the Crows on paper right now, but with a 31.5-point insurance line, don’t be surprised if the Eagles overlook Adelaide completely.
Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (+31.5 Points) @ $2.00
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, July 11, 6:05pm, GIANTS Stadium
Gold Coast’s fairytale run ended abruptly last week when Matt Rowell was sent to the rooms with a dislocated shoulder in the loss to Geelong.
The odds-on Rising Star favourite could potentially face season-ending surgery in the coming days, but on the plus side, there was plenty to like about the way the Suns went about business immediately following the injury.
The 37-point margin probably doesn’t do them justice, but the Suns were in for the fight against the Cats in the third quarter.
They’ll now get their chance to bounce-back this week against a Demons side in desperate need of a win, and it’s fair to say the bookies probably aren’t giving them enough respect.
A win here for the Gold Coast could be enough to vault them back inside the top four if results go their way, while the Dees are simply looking to distance themselves from the Crows after another disappointing loss last week against Richmond.
It’s impossible to know what to expect with this game being played at GIANTS Stadium, so you’re best off taking a throw at the stumps and backing the Suns to come through.
Tip: Back the Suns to Win @ $2.00
Saturday, July 11, 7:40pm, Metricon Stadium
The Dons won an absolute thriller against North Melbourne this time last year, but they’ll be looking to make more of a statement this time around with a top-four spot up for grabs.
After a rough week against Carlton the week prior, the Bombers got their season back on track last week with a morale-boosting win over Collingwood in the rescheduled ANZAC Day game.
John Worsfold’s side showed incredible courage to fight back from an early three-goal deficit, which is more than you can say for North Melbourne, who found themselves on the wrong end of a 49-point thumping against the Bulldogs.
Essendon has won each of its last four matches against North, but they will need someone to step up in the absence of Jake Stringer, who is now set to miss the next six to eight weeks with an ankle injury.
There’s been lots to like about North at times this season, and lots to loathe at the same time.
Ben Brown has been a shell of his usual self, while the Roos have appeared vulnerable against teams that can tackle and bring pressure.
Essendon fits that mold, and if their supporters turn up on Saturday at Metricon, they should be winning.
Tip: Back Essendon 1-39 @ $2.05
Sunday, July 12, 1:05pm, Metricon Stadium
This is by far the most intriguing match of the round from both a spectator and betting perspective.
After an unbeaten start to the season, Port Adelaide went down without so much as a whimper last week against the Lions at the Gabba.
GWS, meanwhile, made their winless start feel like a distant memory thanks to a convincing 34-point win over Hawthorn at home.
Things get a little tougher this week for the Giants though as they now travel north to the Gold Coast to face a Power side that has relished playing in the Queensland hub.
Last week aside, Port remains the second-highest goal kicking team in the competition, while they also rank second in disposals.
On the flip side, the Giants have won their last five in a row over the Power and are also looking to add to their 3-3 lifetime record at Metricon.
They’ve also covered in each of their last seven games against Port, so if they can shut down Charlie Dixon like the Lions did last week and find the same kind of production from Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg down the other end, they should win this comfortably.
Tip: Back GWS to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $2.00
Sunday, July 12, 3:35pm, Gabba
Richmond had a win for the first time since the restart last week against the Demons, but things are about to get very interesting at Tigerland from here on out.
Not only do Richmond travel north to Brisbane, but they do so with a very understrength list following a range of injuries to several key players.
Toby Nankervis, Tom Lynch, Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin are all in doubt to play this weekend at the Gabba, while Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards are set to miss several games going due to the birth of their children.
For the Swans, this weekend is a chance to get back on track against a club missing several key names.
Sydney has typically been a great bet at the line on the road, but they failed to come through last week in a 34-point belting at the hands of West Coast.
Still, the Swans are 5-2 as the away underdog at the line over the last 12 months, and it’s worth noting they did keep things close against the Eagles early on.
It’s tough to read too much into Richmond’s win over Melbourne last week, and with a seriously depleted list, there’s lots to like about the Swans at the current quote.
Tip: Alternative Handicap – Swans (+7.5) @ $1.70
Sunday, July 12, 6:45pm, Metricon Stadium
The Bulldogs are easily one of the hottest teams in the competition right now as they shoot for four wins in a row on Sunday against the Blues.
After a rocky start to the season, Luke Beveridge has done a fantastic job getting his players to respond with wins over GWS, Sydney and North Melbourne to return to the top eight.
After impressive back-to-back wins themselves, the Blues are now looking to atone for last weeks 18-point loss to St Kilda.
Carlton weren’t disgraced by any stretch of the imagination, but David Teague will need to find an answer to Josh Bruce, who kicked six last week on North.
The Dogs have won four of their last five over the Blues, but there is something to be said for Carlton on the back of a previous defeat.
At the line, the Blues are 4-2 on the back of a loss, so considering this is the first game in the QLD hub for both clubs, there’s a good chance it turns out close.
Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $2.00
If there’s one thing the AFL does right, it’s Anzac Day.
We focus in on Thursday’s epic encounter between the Bombers and the Pies from the MCG this week, a game that holds serious ladder implications for both clubs.
There’s also two interstate derby’s to choose from as the Q-Clash and the ‘Battle of the Bridge’ gets underway on Saturday, and of course, if you fancy backing a winner, be sure to check out our entire 2019 AFL Round 6 Preview below.
Wednesday April 24, 7:35pm, MCG
For a team down on confidence and more importantly, players, the Tigers sure looked like a premiership outfit last week in their 22-point win over the Swans.
Richmond booted nine goals in the first half, marching home to their third win of the season. Damien Hardwick’s side still find themselves outside the eight, but with a wounded Melbourne side up next, the Tigers are in good shape to win their second straight Anzac Eve clash.
This time last year Melbourne were belted by 42-points at the G, which is exactly what happened last week against the Saints. It was the same old story for the Dees after dominating the inside 50’s, only this time, Melbourne found zero success in front of goal.
The pressure is now on coach Simon Goodwin to turn this ship around, but nothing will come easy against a Tigers side expecting Jack Riewoldt to return. Speaking of pressure, that’s exactly what we’ve seen from Richmond over the last fortnight. The Tigers were dominated in the disposal count against the Swans, but they out-tackled Sydney 71-56. Against a Dees side missing a serious full forward threat, this spells bad news for the red and the blue.
Richmond, not surprisingly, are 10-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months and 3-2 in the same scenario against the Dees. In front of a big crowd on short rest, Melbourne could be in for another long night.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90
Thursday April 25, 3:20pm, MCG
No matter where either side stands on the ladder, the stakes are always high on Anzac Day. This time around though, the implications are massive with both teams looking to earn their fourth win of the season.
Collingwood find themselves fourth on the ladder after silencing a sold-out crowd at The Gabba last week. The Pies burst from the gates early to tame the Lions, combining speed and precision through the midfield to earn a convincing 62-point win.
The Bombers, well they also made a statement against North Melbourne, kicking nine first half goals to win by 58-points. It was Orazio Fantasia’s turn to boot a four-goal bag, a week after Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti put up seven against Brisbane. Nathan Buckley will need to be wary of Essendon’s clever transition play this week if he hopes to earn his sixth Anzac Day win as coach.
The market is well and truly in favour of the Pies, and rightfully so. Collingwood’s forward line was phenomenal last week, but so was their pressure, forcing the Lions into a handful of mistakes inside 50 and around the midfield in the first quarter.
Head to head, the Pies are 4-3 as the away favourite against Essendon while the Bombers are 3-1 as the line underdog. Much of this game boils down to who can handle the pressures of footy’s second biggest stage, and after hushing The Gabba crowd last week, you have to like this experienced Pies outfit to stand tall.
Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (-12.5 Points) @ $1.90
Friday April 26, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval
It’s hardly the Friday night blockbuster fans have grown accustomed to, but with Port Adelaide returning home after a huge upset over the reigning premiers in Perth, all eyes will be on the Power as they hope to make a run at the Top 4.
Port Adelaide were never in doubt against West Coast, even though the pre-game market suggested otherwise. The Power kicked nine goals to West Coast’s two in the first half, an impressive effort considering the horrible conditions.
For North, it already looks to be a lost season. Give the Roos credit, they were up for the fight against the Bombers on Good Friday trailing by 11-points in the second term. Then the Dons decided to switch it up a gear to go on and lead by six goals at the half time break.
The writing has been on the wall for North Melbourne for quite some time. The Roos struggle to put together a consistent four quarters, and with Ben Brown in the midst of a down year so far, it’s no wonder North fade in crucial moments.
Port Adelaide have won four straight against Brad Scott’s side and are also 4-2 as the favourite against the Roos. It is worth noting though that four of the last five meetings between these two have been settled by 39-points or less, making the margin a worthwhile play on Friday.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.12
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday April 27, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
For the first time in a long time, the Q-Clash means something. The Lions are suddenly fighting for life ranked ninth on the ladder, while the Suns also need to make up for last week’s blowout loss to the Crows if they wish to leapfrog Brisbane for a spot in the eight.
If Saturday’s game is anything like last year’s two-game series, fans should be in for a real treat. The Suns won by five-points in Round 5, followed by a four-point Lions win in Round 22.
Looking at the market, you could argue the bookies have gotten this one wrong. The Lions head to Metricon as the -16.5-point favourite, but after two straight blowout losses to Essendon and Collingwood, it’s tough to find confidence in Chris Fagan’s side right now.
Of course, you could say the same for the Suns, who were belted by 73-points in Adelaide last week. Gold Coast’s red-hot start to the season has been exciting, but keep in mind, they own victories over the Dockers, Bulldogs and Carlton – two of which currently occupy the bottom five.
As the road favourite Brisbane are 3-2 against the Suns but 0-3 at the line. This is a test the improved Lions should really win, and after failing to take the game on last week against Collingwood, expect Fagan’s side to come out firing in the early goings.
Limiting the mistakes and reigniting that same midfield pressure we saw in Rounds 1, 2 and 3 will go a long way to earning the Lions a spot back in the eight. The usual first quarter woes should see Brisbane on the back foot early before a well-staged comeback in the third term.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Gold Coast Suns/Brisbane Lions @ $6.50
Saturday April 27, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium
Briefly, the Saints were on top of the ladder for the first time since 2010, but if they make it three wins in a row on Saturday, they could easily leapfrog Geelong for top spot yet again.
Adelaide rejoined the winners’ circle last week with a much-needed victory over the Suns at home. The Crows got back to basics dominating possession and the inside 50 count, while Eddie Betts did the rest with a casual six-goal effort.
As for St. Kilda, Alan Richardson’s side made short work of the Demons in a 40-point blowout. The belief in this side is clear, but there’s no getting past Tim Membrey’s four goal effort – a far cry from his kicking woes a season ago.
The Crows have won a whopping eight straight games over St. Kilda dating back to 2012, and it shows in the market. The Saints are one of the better sides in the competition defensively, but if the Crows can set up over the back and rely on the long ball, they’re a real upset chance this week.
Look for another big game from Tex Walker as he silenced critics with a three-goal game against the Suns. The Crows’ co-captain owns 23 career goals against St. Kilda, making Adelaide a handy bet at these odds.
Tip: Back the Crows to Win @ $1.95
Saturday April 27, 7:25pm, SCG
The first ‘Battle of the Bridge’ match gets underway from the SCG on Saturday as the 16th placed Swans battle the sixth-place Giants.
These two sides met on three separate occasions last year with the Swans winning two of three, but the Giants had the last laugh earning a huge 79-30 victory in Week 1 one of the Finals.
This time around, the Swans will be out for revenge, but there’s plenty to overcome this week both on and off the field. Sydney have their fair share of critics right now, and while a slow start to the season isn’t all that uncommon for the Swans, two-straight blowout losses certainly comes as a surprise.
John Longmire’s side never really entered the game last week against the Tigers. The Swans trailed by five goals at half time, succumbing to Richmond’s relentless pressure and inside 50 entries. There are also the off-field Buddy Franklin distractions, as well as a disgruntled fan base eager for a rebuild.
The Giants, well they too have some thinking to do. GWS lost by 24-points to Fremantle in Canberra last week, largely due to their inaccuracy in front of goal. The Giants have won only five of the 16 Sydney Derby’s so far, all of which came in blowout fashion.
It appears the bookies want no part in the Swans this week listing them as serious outsiders. The only way Sydney wins this game is with a huge performance from Franklin, and with Phil Davis likely out, the likelihood of that happening is dangerously high.
While Franklin’s presence alone is enough to see the Swans over the line, Sydney fans should also take stock in the fact the Swans have been the underdog only twice since the Sydney Derby started in 2012.
With GWS second guessing themselves after last week’s loss and Franklin having booted five goals in Round 22 last year, take the Swans to keep this close.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday April 27, 7:25pm, Optus Stadium
Peek at the ladder and you might be surprised to learn the Dockers sit third. Last week’s win over GWS was nothing short of phenomenal, and after snapping the Giants’ nine-game winning streak, Freo now sets its sights on a wounded Bulldogs side.
Luke Beveridge was left disappointed after his side fell by 44-points to the Blues last week. The Dogs failed to turn up trailing by four goals at half time, and things only got worse as Carlton weathered the Bulldogs’ third-quarter storm to boot four goals in the final term.
The Bulldogs’ pressure in the opening three rounds now seems to be a distant memory, and after Nat Fyfe’s 31 disposal game last week, Beveridge could be in for another frustrating afternoon.
The Dogs haven’t won against Freo in Perth since 2009, and as the odds suggest, the bookies are giving the Westerners little chance of an upset. Fremantle have won the last three meetings and are also 3-2 as the line favourite at home against the Dogs.
Take the Dockers and their lively midfield to steamroll the Dogs.
Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday April 28, 3:20pm, UTAS Stadium (Launceston)
The Blues are on the board for the first time since Round 19 last year. Brendon Bolton’s side rewarded the patience of fans with a thrilling 44-point win over the Bulldogs last week, but things won’t come quite so easy against Alastair Clarkson’s happy-go-lucky Hawthorn side.
Geelong proved too much for the Hawks on Easter Monday, but there was a lot to take away from the loss from a Hawthorn point of view. No Ben Stratton left the Hawks shorthanded defensively, but with five 20-year-olds on the field, the Hawks put up a brave fight to put a scare into the Cats in the final term.
The most impressive part of Hawthorn right now is the forward line. The inclusion of Chad Wingard has added some much-needed energy inside 50, which compliments the dangerous play of Luke Breust nicely.
Hawthorn will hold fond memories of games against Carlton, having won by 72-points when they met last year. The Hawks are 2-0 as the home favourite against the Blues, and with the ever-reliable advantage of UTAS Stadium to their name, the Hawks should be able to bring the same pressure they applied last week on Geelong and win easily.
Tip: Back the Hawks 40+
West Coast Eagles
Sunday April 28, 4:40pm, GMHBA Stadium
If you thought the reigning premiers did it tough last week at home to Port, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
The Eagles face a monumental challenge this week as they travel to face the top of the table Cats in Geelong. The last time West Coast won at GMHBA Stadium was way back in 2006, and if you caught a glimpse of the Eagles last week, it’s tough to see an upset unfolding on Sunday.
Geelong were far from their best against Hawthorn last Monday, but they got the job done in the end. The two Gary’s – Ablett and Rohan – were the surprise standouts as they combined for seven goals, while Joel Selwood chipped in with his first 30 disposal game of the season.
West Coast’s biggest problem so far has been inconsistencies in the forward line. Coach Adam Simpson blamed the Perth Stadium turf for Josh Kennedy’s poor one goal performance last week, but the simple fact of the matter is, the Eagles can’t play in the wet.
The good news is there’s no rain forecast for Sunday’s game, but that mightn’t matter. Geelong are 4-0 straight up against the Eagles at the Cattery, and with a forward line that leads the league in goals scored, this should be no trouble for the Cats.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-14.5 Points) @ $1.90
The previous round only finished on Wednesday and we don’t have to wait long for more AFL action.
The game of the weekend is set to take place on Saturday afternoon as Geelong host Sydney in a rematch of last year’s Semi-Final, while there are a pair of big games in Melbourne on Sunday as Essendon take on Melbourne and Collingwood face Richmond.
We have analysed all nine games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 AFL Round 6 tips can be found below.
Friday 27 April, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
Bulldogs 80-Carlton 59
Nothing captures the imagination of the football public than the prospect of Carlton playing on the big stage of Friday night football!
Both the Blues and the Bulldogs have had a poor start to season 2018 and will want to make the most of it come Friday night.
Carlton who are yet to win this season was able to give West Coast a scare in their game last Saturday while the Bulldogs skill errors cost them deerley against Freo in Perth.
Young Blues forward Harry McKay was impressive with four goals last week and he’ll have another chance to shine with the Bulldogs defence being inexperienced at best.
For the Dogs, Marcus Bontemplelli will need to put in a big one.
He was completely outplayed by Nat Fyfe last week and a big effort by “The Bont” could be the difference if the Bulldogs are to get their second win for season 2018.
There’s a lot of uncertainty between both sides which makes this clash a hard one to tip but expect it to be a surprising thriller!
BACK WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN 1-9 POINTS @ $7.75
Saturday 28 April, 1:45pm, GMHBA Stadium
Cats 69-Swans 86
Sydney will have a point to prove after their loss to the Crows last week while the Cats return home after a sensational win over the Power at Adelaide Oval.
Old hands for the Cats were outstanding with Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield leading the way along with Sam Menegola, Mitch Duncan and the late call-up for Tom Hawkins, George Horlin-Smith all providing great support in a great win for Geelong.
Sydney was dominated by the Crows midfield last week, which put them under a lot of pressure which ultimately let Adelaide run away with the game despite getting close in the last quarter.
Dan Hannebery, who starred in the Swans win at Kardinia Park last year will miss the game along with Lance Franklin.
The Swans will also want to attain for their loss to the Cats in last years Semi-Final.
Sydney can also currently boast to have something no other club in the AFL can – defeating the Cats in their past two matches at Geelong.
However, with the Cats back at home and the Swans not playing at their best, they should be too good for them this Saturday.
BACK GEELONG TO BEAT THE LINE -16.5 POINTS @ $1.92
Saturday 28 April, 2:10pm, Etihad Stadium
North 69 - Port 102
Port Adelaide face an inform North Melbourne this Saturday at Etihad Stadium in what could be one of the games of the round.
North was sensational against Hawthorn last week while Port had their chances against the Cats at home but couldn’t capitalise.
With the Power’s All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder still out for the Power, the prospect of facing North’s ruck Todd Goldstein will be hard for Justin Westhoff and Dougal Howard who have been sharing ruck duties for Port in Ryder’s absence.
It will also be interesting to see if Shaun Higgins can play after his sickening collision with Hawthorn’s Ryan Burton.
After Round three of this season, Port Adelaide was the unbeaten team of the competition but with the Roos finding form and yet again proving the critics wrong, expect them to be 3-3 by the end of this weekend.
BACK NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN @ $2.65
Saturday 28 April, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS 77-Lions 43
The Giants play their first home game at Spotless Stadium for the season and they will be wanting to make up for their draw over the Saints last week.
GWS had every chance to win the game in the last quarter but poor kicking infront of goal let them down.
Brisbane made a charge in the last quarter in last weeks “Q-Clash” against the Suns but their lack of confidence up forward cost them many chances to snatch the lead.
The Lions still remain winless in season 2018.
The Giants forward line of Jonathon Patton, Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene looms as a big challenge for the Lions this Saturday especially if they get on a roll.
Brisbane’s Dane Zorko and Charlie Cameron will need to put in a big one if the Lions are to have any chance of remaining competitive in this clash.
BACK GWS TO BEAT THE LINE -40.5 POINTS @ $1.92
Saturday 28 April, 7:25pm, University Of Tasmania Stadium
Hawks 89-Saints 54
The Saints were gallant in their draw to GWS last week while Hawthorn will want to get back to their winning ways after last weeks loss to North.
Hawthorn will miss James Sicily through suspension but are thanking the AFL Match Review gods with gun midfielder Tom Mitchell cleared to play.
The Hawks have had some terrible first quarters in recent weeks which has cost them and will need to improve on that to ensure the Saints don’t cause an upset.
Launceston has proven to be a fortress for the Hawks but the Saints did beat them in their encounter at the same venue last year.
Expect the Hawks to be too good for the Saints this Saturday night.
BACK HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 1-39 POINTS @ $2.10
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 28 April, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Crows 110-Suns 62
Adelaide goes into this game as hot favourites, but don’t write off the Gold Coast Suns who have made an impressive start to this season.
The Suns, who are enduring nine weeks on the road due to the Commonwealth Games are 3-2 and are full of confidence under their new coach Stewart Dew.
Gold Coast is currently on a 10 game losing streak against the Crows but to knock them off at Adelaide Oval where they are currently 28-6 in the last 34 games at the venue looks to be a daunting task.
For Adelaide, Tom Doedee has fitted in nicely after taking over Jake Lever in defence, youngsters Cam Ellis-Yolmen and Hugh Greenwood are dominating at stoppages and Tex Walker was back to his best last weekend.
It will be a great test to see where the Suns are at against the Crows but the home side should be simply too good.
BACK ADELAIDE TO COVER THE LINE -46.5 @ $1.92
Sunday 29 April, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Dons 72 -Dees 108
Both teams that were highly fancied at the start of the year are coming off losses and a short break after their respective ANZAC games.
Essendon could not be more disappointing against Collingwood on ANZAC day. Poor decision making, ball use and generally undisciplined play from the Dons allowed Collingwood to run away with the game in what was a dismal day for the Bombers.
Melbourne was able to take it up to reigning premiers Richmond on their ANZAC eve match but the Tigers pressure eventually proved too good for the Demons running away with a 46 point win.
Clayton Oliver, Jake Melksham and Michael Hibberd were amongst the Dees best and will need to put in a four-quarter effort against Essendon at Etihad this Sunday.
Both sides sit 13th (Essendon) and 14th (Melbourne) on the ladder respectively and have had similar starts to the season.
Melbourne have struggled to win at Etihad in recent years but the extra day’s rest in what is a quick turnaround of games might just be the advantage they need to get the win over the Bombers.
BACK MELBOURNE TO WIN @ $1.85
Sunday 29 April, 3:20pm, MCG
Pies 70-Tigers 113
This could be the biggest match between the two sides since the 1980 Grand Final.
The reigning premiers and in form Tigers up against the Pies who have won their last three games and are on a roll.
The Tigers were up for the scrap against the Dees on Tuesday night when after taking it up to what Melbourne had to offer, ran away with a 46 point win without getting into an extra gear.
Richmond now sits on top of the ladder after a round since 1995 and have won 11 games in a row at the MCG.
Collingwood could not be more impressive over the Bombers on ANZAC day.
The Pies lead at every change, seven in the first quarter, 17 at half-time and then buried the Bombers in the second half kicking eight goals to three and going on to win by 49 points.
The Magpies have lost four of their last five against the Tigers will only have three days rest compared to Richmond’s four.
Expect Collingwood to take it up to Richmond but the Tigers pressure and extra day’s rest should prove too good for the Magpies.
BACK RICHMOND TO WIN 1-39 POINTS @ $2.12
West Coast Eagles
Sunday 29 April, 4:40pm, Optus Stadium
Freo 81 - Eagles 89
This is the first Western Derby to be played at the new Optus Stadium in Perth and it should be ripping contest between the fierce rivals.
Three games at the Stadium and Fremantle has made it a fortress.
The Dockers play the ground well and average over 103 points a game when playing there.
West Coast has gone beyond expectation and are sitting second on the ladder and can back themselves to win with its tall forward line, with the likes of Josh Kennedy who needs to kick one more goal to equal club legend Peter Sumich’s record.
The Eagles have won the past five Derbies and haven’t won six in a row against Freo since 1995-99.
If Elliot Yeo can restrict Nat Fyfe’s influence on Freo, it could have an impact on the Dockers chances of winning.
Expect the Eagles to win this in what could be yet another memorable Western Debry.
BACK WEST COAST TO COVER THE LINE -8.5 POINTS @ $1.92
The Greater Western Sydney Giants and Western Bulldogs did battle in a thrilling preliminary final last season and they renew acquaintances in Canberra on Friday night in a genuine blockbuster.
Hawthorn have the chance to make it two wins on the trot when they face St Kilda on Saturday afternoon before the Derby headlines the Saturday night action.
Throw in the top of the AFL table clash between the Adelaide Crows and Richmond on Sunday afternoon and it really is a round packed full of excitement, so we have analysed all the key games to come up with our AFL Round 6 tips.
Friday 28 April, 7:50pm, Manuka Oval
GWS Giants 75 - Western Bulldogs 73
This is a rematch of the epic preliminary final that was played between these two sides at the end of last season.
Greater Western Sydney may have lost that clash, but they will go into the rematch as clear favourites on the back of four straight wins.
The Giants really have warmed into this season nicely and they have now won seven of their past ten games as home favourites, while they have an identical record against the line.
The Western Bulldogs may have won two games on the trot, but it is fair to say that they were not particularly impressive against either North Melbourne or the Brisbane Lions.
They will need to improve to have any chance whatsoever against Greater Western Sydney and I believe that they are capable of doing just that.
The Bulldogs have won six of their past nine games as away underdogs for a clear profit and there really is nowhere near as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests.
This is the chance for the Western Bulldogs to fight-off the premiership hangover completely and they are worth a gamble at their current price.
Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $3.25
Saturday 29 April, 1:45pm, University Of Tasmania Stadium
Hawthorn 55 - St Kilda 130
Hawthorn recorded their first win of the season against West Coast last weekend and they are narrow favourites to make it two wins on the trot.
There was plenty to like about the performance of Hawthorn against West Coast and it will be interesting to see whether they can replicate that effort this weekend.
The record of Hawthorn in Tasmania really is impressive and they have won their past 19 games in the Apple Isle.
St Kilda were in the game for a long way against Geelong, but they fell away in the final quarter and they are yet to show that they are capable of matching it with the best teams in the AFL.
The Saints have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is an uninspiring 4-4.
Hawthorn can start to build their momentum and they are genuine value to dispose of St Kilda this weekend.
Back Hawthorn To Win @ $1.80
Saturday 29 April, 2:10pm, MCG
Carlton 97 - Sydney Swans 78
The Sydney Swans will surely never have a better chance to record their first win of the 2017 AFL season.
Sydney were no match for Greater Western Sydney last weekend, but there is little doubt that Carlton are a much weaker outfit.
The Swans have won five of their past seven games as away favourites for a loss and they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton produced their worst performance of the season against Port Adelaide last weekend and a repeat of that performance would see them comfortably beaten by the Swans.
The Blues have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs for a profit, but it is incredibly tough to have any trust in them on the back of that performance.
There are plenty of question marks over both these teams and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
Saturday 29 April, 4:35pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 67 - Port Adelaide 150
Port Adelaide flogged Carlton last weekend and the market suggests that a repeat is on the cards against the Brisbane Lions.
The Power recorded two heavy wins over the Lions last season and they have a record of 4-2 as away favourites in both head-to-head betting as well as against the line.
Brisbane looked as though they were going to record an upset win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but once again they ran out of puff in the final quarter of the game.
The Lions generally produce their best football at The Gabba, but they have won only one of their past ten games as home underdogs for a massive lose and they are 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide should be able to cruise to another comfortable win and cover the line in the process.
Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-29.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 29 April, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne 107 - Gold Coast 94
North Melbourne are yet to win a game this season, but the Kangaroos are favourites to account for the Gold Coast Suns.
The Kangaroos have lost three games this season by less than a goal and they really have been a better team than their current record suggests.
North Melbourne are a team that generally do get the job done as favourites and they have won three of their past four games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the punter’s elect.
Gold Coast were no match for a rampant Adelaide Crows last weekend and this will be an interesting test to see just where the Suns are at this stage of the season.
The Suns have not won a game as away underdogs for over 12 months and they are 3-6 against the line in this scenario.
This is North Melbourne’s chance to record a maiden win this season and they can cover the line of 12.5 points in the process.
Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 29 April, 8:10pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 103 - Fremantle 62
This is an interesting edition of the Derby.
The West Coast Eagles will start this clash as clear favourites, but it is fair to say that their form has left a little bit to be desired so far this season.
The Eagles produced their worst performance of the season against Hawthorn last weekend and they are yet to show that they are genuine premiership contenders in 2017.
They have won four of their past five games against Fremantle as favourites and they have been a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle made it three wins on the trot with a fighting win over North Melbourne last weekend and they really have shown plenty of toughness in recent weeks.
The Dockers have lost their past three games to West Coast and there is still a big question mark over whether this young side can continue to produce this level of performance.
This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out of the contest from a betting standpoint.
Sunday 30 April, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Essendon 74 - Melbourne 112
The market suggests that this will be one of the most competitive games of the weekend and at this stage our bookies can’t split these two sides.
Essendon ended their losing streak with an excellent win over Collingwood in the Anzac Clash and it will be interesting to see how the Bombers handle the quick back-up.
The Bombers have beaten Melbourne in the past two games played between these two sides and they have been a profitable betting play across every metric so far this season.
Injuries took their toll for Melbourne in their Monday night clash with Richmond and the Tigers were able to run over the top of their rivals.
The injury to Jake Spencer has left Melbourne without a recognized ruckmen, but they will be buoyed by the return of Jordan Lewis this weekend.
It is still tough to know what to make of this Melbourne outfit and the injury crisis has only made that task tougher.
It really is incredibly tough to seperate these two sides and I will be staying out of this clash from a betting perspective.
Sunday 30 April, 3:20pm, MCG
Geelong 78 - Collingwood 107
It has been another week of misery for Collingwood and it should come as no surprise that Geelong will start this clash as dominant favourites.
Geelong have flown under the radar somewhat this season, but they maintained their unbeaten record with a come from behind win over St Kilda and they have scored over 100 points in every game so far this season.
The Cats have won 15 of their past 20 games as favourites, but they are only 9-11 against the line when giving away a start.
Collingwood could hardly have been more disappointing in the Anzac Clash with Essendon and they have now only won one game this season.
The Magpies have won five of their past 14 games as underdogs for a profit and they are 9-5 against the line in this scenario, but it is tough to have any faith in this side from a betting standpoint.
The betting play that does standout in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting market.
The Under has saluted in 17 of the past 29 games played by Geelong at the MCG and backing the Under has also been a profitable betting play in Collingwood fixtures at the MCG.
Back Under 188.6 Points
Sunday 30 April, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 140 - Richmond 64
This is a top of the table clash between two of only three unbeaten teams left in the AFL this season.
The Adelaide Crows have made a flawless start to the 2017 AFL season and it is no surprise that they will start this clash as dominant favourites.
Adelaide have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
Richmond came from behind in the final quarter to account for Melbourne on Anzac Day Eve, but this is easily the toughest test that they have faced this season to date.
The Tigers have lost their past six games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 1-5 against the line in this scenario.
Adelaide have had no problems putting up big scores against their rivals this weekend and they are a great bet to deflate the Richmond bubble in this Sunday afternoon clash.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-30.5 Points)
This is far from the biggest round of the 2016 AFL season, but there are still a number of exciting contests.
The Adelaide Crows and Fremantle Dockers are both expected to be finals contenders this season and they are set to do battle at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon before the Greater Western Sydney Giants host Hawthorn and Richmond do battle with Port Adelaide.
Carlton and Essendon are the most successful teams in the history of the AFL, but they are both expected to struggle in 2016 and this game could decide the winner of the wooden spoon.
Friday 29 April, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne 61 - Western Bulldogs 45
This is a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster between two sides that the majority of punters would not have picked to be on top of the AFL Ladder after five rounds.
North Melbourne are the only side in the AFL that are unbeaten, but this is easily the toughest test that they have faced since they beat Adelaide in round 1.
The Kangaroos have proven a very safe betting side in the past 12 months and they have lost just one of their past eight games as home favourites and two of their past 16 games as the punter’s elect.
The Western Bulldogs have overcome the loss of defender and inspirational leader Bob Murphy against both Carlton and Brisbane, but it is fair to say that they face a much stiffer assignment against North Melbourne.
The Bulldogs have been a very profitable betting side in recent times across just about every metric and they have won four of their past nine games as underdogs, while they are 7-2 against the line when being given a start.
I suspect this will be another very close game and an absolute ripper, but it is one that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective as the market has summed up both teams chances just about right.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 30 April, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Melbourne 96 - St Kilda 135
Melbourne have an absolutely horrendous record against St Kilda in recent seasons and they have lost the last 11 games played between the two sides, but they will start this weekend’s clash as favourites.
The Demons are flying high after recording back-to-back victories over Collingwood and Richmond and there has been talk of finals in the past weekend.
If Melbourne are going to play finals they will need to beat teams like St Kilda, but their recent record as favourites does not read well and they have won just one of their past four games as the punter’s elect.
St Kilda were excellent against Hawthorn a fortnight ago, but they were unable to back that up against Greater Western Sydney and it is this inconsistency that has plauged them in recent seasons.
Their record as underdogs in the past 12 months is a far from impressive 4-1-16 and they have also been a losing betting proposition against the line when being given a start.
Melbourne and St Kilda are two sides that I don’t really trust from a betting perspective and this is another game that I am more than willing to stay out of.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 30 April, 1:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide 97 - Fremantle 64
This would have been considered one of the games of the round at the start of the season , but it now looks like an absolute mismatch and Adelaide will start as very short favourites.
What had already been a truly horrid start to the season hit rock bottom for Fremantle when they lost to Carlton last weekend and they now look as though they will be without Nathan Fyfe for the rest of the season.
It is tough to see where Fremantle go from here and their poor 1-6 record against the line as away underdogs suggests that they will not bounce back this weekend.
Adelaide played their second thriller in as many weeks against Hawthorn and they were unable to come away with the four points this time, but they should still take plenty of confidence out of the performance.
They are undefeated as favourites at the Adelaide Oval in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this scenario is also flawless.
I expect the Crows to put the sword to the Dockers this weekend and the line of 49.5 points will not be enough.
Recommended Bet: Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-49.5 Points)
Saturday 30 April, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS Giants 158 - Hawthorn 83
Hawthorn have won three games in a row by three points and they face another stiff challenge against a much improved Greater Western Sydney Giants side this weekend.
The Hawks have not made it look easy in recent weeks, but they have shown they still have another gear to go to when required and they have won 11 out of their past 14 games as away favourites, while beating the line in nine of these encounters.
The Giants have strung together two wins on the trot, but a third straight victory might prove a step to far for the AFL’s youngest franchise.
Greater Western Sydney have won just two of their past ten games as underdogs, while their record against the line is only a middling 5-5 in this scenario.
Hawthorn will be keen to avoid another nail-biting finish and I don’t think that the line of 10.5 points will be enough for the Giants.
Recommended Bet: Back The Hawks To Beat The Line (-10.5 Points)
Saturday 30 April, 7:25pm, MCG
Richmond 59 - Port Adelaide 94
Richmond are under a mountain of pressure heading into this clash with Port Adelaide and another loss will intensify the scrutiny on coach Damian Hardwicke.
The Tigers would still be winless if it were not for a poor quarter from Carlton in round one and to make matters worse they will go into this game without key defender Alex Rance following his brain snap against Melbourne.
Richmond have been a losing betting proposition as favourites over the past 12 months and they are a horrific 3-8 against the line when giving a start at the MCG.
The only other team heading into round six under as much scrutiny as Richmond is Port Adelaide after they followed up their dismal effort against Greater Western Sydney with another flat effort against Geelong.
Port Adelaide have been a profitable side as away underdogs over the past 12 months – thanks to their upset victory over Hawthorn in the second half of last season – but their record against the line when receiving a start has been only middling.
It is impossible to have any trust in either of these teams at the moment and this is another game that I am happy to let go around without placing a bet.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 30 April, 7:25pm, Spotless Stadium
Geelong 168 - Gold Coast Suns 48
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and it will give us great insight into where both these teams sit at this stage of the season.
Geelong have flown under the radar since their big round one defeat of Hawthorn, but they have been fairly clinical in recent weeks and they go into this game on the back of three straight wins.
While it is fair to say that the Cats have been good, this is the toughest test they have faced in the past month.
The Spotless Stadium factor is always a big one for Geelong and they are 5-2 in head to head betting as well as 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Gold Coast started the season strongly, but they have since suffered back-to-back defeats at the hands of Brisbane and North Melbourne and look like a team that is on the slide.
They have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is an equally poor 2-6.
I expect the Suns will be outclassed by this Geelong side and the Cats should be able to walk away with a fairly comprehensive victory.
Recommended Bet: Back Geelong To Beat The Line (-39.5 Points)
Sunday 1 May, 1:10pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 94 - Sydney Swans 97
The Brisbane Lions have struggled against the Sydney Swans in recent seasons and they have lost the past eight games played between the two sides.
Brisbane were able to record an upset win against the Gold Coast Suns, but they returned to their previous form with a flat effort against the Western Bulldogs and they face another very tough assignment against Sydney this weekend.
The Lions do have a decent record at The Gabba in the past 12 months and they are a profitable 3-5 in head to head betting as home underdogs as well as 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney recovered from a slow start to beat West Coast in the wet last weekend and another victory this weekend looks likely, but they still might not be the best value this weekend.
The Swans have won 18 of their past 19 games as 39 point favourites, but they are 8-11 against the line in this scenario and are not really known as a team that put their weaker rivals to the sword.
I think the Lions can produce an improved performance in front of their home fans and they won’t get blown out by the Swans this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back The Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+39.5 Points)
Sunday 1 May, 3:20pm, MCG
Carlton 72 - Essendon 57
Carlton scored their first win of the season when they beat Fremantle last weekend and they have a great chance to make it two wins on the trot when they face the undermanned Essendon on Sunday.
Carlton showed great fight to record their first victory on the Brendan Bolton era and they will go into this game as favourites – a position in which they have been just twice in the past 12 months.
It is tough to analyse how the Blues will perform when they are expected to win as the sample size is so incredibly small in recent years!
The big occasion was too much for Essendon on Anzac Day and they were blown away by Collingwood in the first quarter.
The Bombers have won just three of their past 20 games as underdogs for a big loss and their record against the line is a very middling 10-10.
This is another game in which it is very tough to have faith in either side and I am happy to let this fixture go through to the keeper from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
West Coast Eagles
Sunday 1 May, 2:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 124 - Collingwood 62
The West Coast Eagles have an excellent record against Collingwood in recent years and they have not lost to their rivals in front of their home fans since 2009.
West Coast made a strong start against Sydney on Saturday afternoon in the wet, but it is fair to say that the conditions didn’t suit them and they face a far easier assignment against Collingwood this weekend.
It is no secret that West Coast have an outstanding record at Domain Stadium in the last 12 months and they have won their past 12 fixtures at the venue as favourites, while beating the line on 11 occasions in this scenario.
Collingwood were too good for Essendon last weekend and it was a good performance, but I still would not be getting carried away if I was a Magpies fan.
The Magpies have won just two of their past nine games as underdogs, but their record against the line is a more than credible 4-1 as away underdogs.
In saying that, you can’t ignore the incredible record that West Coast have at Domain Stadium and they have covered the line in 12 of their last 15 games when giving away a start of over 39 points.
Recommended Bet: Back West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-39.5 Points)