Only two sides remain undefeated atop the AFL ladder as we look ahead to another massive round of footy.
The Dogs will be looking to improve to 7-0 on Friday night when they take on reigning premiers Richmond at the ‘G, while Melbourne has drawn favourably to add to its winning streak against the winless Kangaroos on Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, on Saturday night, two top eight blockbusters are on the cards when Brisbane hosts Port from the Gabba, followed by the Cats traveling to Sydney to face the Swans.
As if that wasn’t enough, the first Western Derby between West Coast and Fremantle wraps things up in front of a small crowd in Perth.
With plenty to play for, we’ve got you covered in our 2021 AFL Round 7 Preview here!
Friday, April 30, 7:50pm, MCG
First plays seventh on Friday night in what is shaping up to be a finals-like atmosphere at the MCG.
The Tigers appeared well on their way to a convincing victory last week against Melbourne before the Dees kicked three unanswered goals in the second quarter to go on and win by plenty.
Still undefeated, the Dogs will be looking to pickup where they left off in Canberra with a gutsy 39-point win over the Giants.
After things were tight at three-quarter time, the Dogs exploded with a nine-goal final term in another convincing performance from Luke Beveridge’s side.
Not surprisingly, the Dogs have been installed as the short-priced favourites on the back of that performance.
Unlike most teams, the Bulldogs have given the reigning premiers a real run for their money winning three of their last five meetings – although Beveridge’s probably won’t reflect too fondly on last year’s 41-point loss.
Even so, the Dogs should feel good about their chances knowing Dustin Martin, Kane Lambert and Dylan Grimes are all doubtful to play.
It goes without saying that their absence will be felt massively on Friday night – particularly against a Dogs team that leads the league in goals scored and ranks dead last in goals allowed.
The Tigers still have enough class to keep this tight, but the Dogs should improve to 7-0.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, May 1, 1:45pm, MCG
The Suns will be looking to add insult to injury this week against a Collingwood side that is basically on life support.
The Pies went tooth and nail against the Bombers on the ANZAC stage last Sunday but simply ran out of gas in the final stages on their way to a 24-point loss.
The defeat has cast even more doubt over Nathan Buckley’s future, while another loss this week would leave Collingwood in no man’s land on the ladder with just one win on the board.
Gold Coast, meanwhile, has just as much to play for.
The Suns shocked the footy world last week with a whopping 40-point win over the Swans – a result that has left Stuart Dew’s side sitting four points clear of a spot inside the top eight.
For all the positives about the Suns though, the Pies have typically been their kryptonite since they entered the competition.
Gold Coast’s last win over Collingwood came way back in 2014, not to mention the fact their six losses since have all come by double digits.
The fact the Suns haven’t won in Melbourne against Collingwood also makes the Gold Coast a risky bet as the underdog.
This is one of those games that could easily go either way, but with their season on the line, the bookies appear to have this one right.
Tip: Back Collingwood 40+ @ $3.75
Saturday, May 1, 2:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Two sides looking to bounce-back meet on Saturday in a game that holds plenty of weight as far as the ladder is concerned.
The Giants have a lot to feel good about following last week’s loss to the Bulldogs, but it’s safe to say Leon Cameron will be asking questions of his side after a close game turned into a blowout in the final quarter.
Likewise, the Crows follow a similar script after blowing a 30-point lead last week against the Hawks in Launceston.
Now at 3-3, a win for Adelaide would likely be enough to help them back inside the eight, while the Giants can improve to 3-4 and potentially move one step closer to playing finals.
If history has taught us anything, it’s that we should expect a close game between these two clubs.
The Crows have won back-to-back games over GWS dating back to 2019, but it’s worth noting both have come by no more than three goals.
Also working in the Crows’ favour is their strong 7-1 record against the Giants in games played at the Adelaide Oval.
As the market suggests, a win from either club wouldn’t surprise, but the Crows still look good value with home-field advantage.
Tip: Back the Crows to Win @ $2.05
Saturday, May 1, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium
The Hawks will be hoping to carry some of the momentum over from last week’s three-point win over the Crows.
After looking dead and buried at three-quarter time, the Hawks roared back from a 30-point deficit to keep their season alive thanks to a huge five-goal game from Jacob Koschitzke.
The Saints, on the other hand, sunk further down the ladder after suffering a 54-point belting at the hands of Port Adelaide.
St Kilda was smashed in just about every major statistical category as the same sloppy skill errors that haunted Brett Ratten’s side in the loss to Richmond again proved costly.
Fortunately, Saints fans can still feel a little confident knowing their side picked up a second straight win over Hawthorn by 14-points last year.
That said, whichever club can start this game off on the right foot will likely go a long way towards winning.
Both Hawthorn and St Kilda have showed a tendency to start slow this year, while the six-day break also makes both teams tough to trust.
With that in mind, the Under looks to be the safest play when you consider the Hawks and Saints both rank bottom five in goals scored.
With their season on the line, this should be a tough, hard-fought game.
Tip: Under 168.5 Total Points @ $1.88
Saturday, May 1, 7:25pm, SCG
The Cats were far and away the most impressive winners in Round 6 with a 97-point mauling over West Coast in Geelong.
Now, Chris Scott’s side turn its attention towards an injury riddled Swans outfit that just suffered a demoralizing loss to the Suns on the Gold Coast.
The Cats made short work of the Lions at the SCG last year, while they’ve also won their last two games against the Swans in Sydney.
To make matters worse, key tall Sam Reid is now set to spend two weeks on the sidelines alongside Buddy Franklin, Dane Rampe and Tom Hickey.
The Swans looked almost unstoppable during the first month of the season, but they’ve since cooled off in the scoring department having now failed to score more than 70 points in their last two games.
Almost in reverse, many labeled Geelong as one of the most boring sides to watch in the competition prior to last week’s explosion against the Eagles.
It’s tough to read too much into a big home win over a team that typically doesn’t travel well, but when you consider the Cats have won four straight over Sydney dating back to 2018, this does look like another winnable contest for Scott’s crew.
Through it all, Geelong has still allowed the second-fewest inside 50s to opponents this year – a real concern for a Swans team that has found scoring difficult of late.
With a sparkling 5-0 record as the away favourite against the Swans, the Cats look a safe bet.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10
Saturday, May 1, 7:25pm, Gabba
The Lions have returned to the top eight thanks to last week’s gutsy win over Carlton, but they’re about to find things a little trickier moving forward with reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale ruled out for two months after undergoing ankle surgery.
As if that wasn’t enough, a dangerous Port Adelaide side shooting for four straight awaits on Saturday night.
After stamping themselves as a genuine premiership threat three weeks ago with a narrow win over Richmond, the Power have since gone on to win by comfortable margins over Carlton and St Kilda to firmly cement their spot in the top four.
The Lions will no doubt feel Neale’s absence immediately, but there was still plenty to like about Brisbane’s resiliency last week.
Carlton cut the margin back to single figures on more than one occasion and had several patches of dominance, but the Lions still held their nerve to reel off an 18-point win.
Also working in the Lions’ favour this week is the fact they’ve won three straight over Port – two of which have come at the Gabba.
Losing Neale is a massive blow, but considering Brisbane leads the league in tackles and also ranks second in clearances, they are a much better chance than the current market suggests.
The Power showed they were vulnerable on the road three weeks ago against West Coast and their recent record at the Gabba does make them a slight question mark.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday, May 2, 1:10pm, Blundstone Arena
The undefeated Dees take a trip to Marvel on Sunday afternoon to take on the winless Kangaroos.
Melbourne put any lingering doubts about their premiership credentials to bed last week with a rousing 34-point win over Richmond on ANZAC Eve, a performance that has to make North fans feel nervous following another blowout loss to Fremantle.
The last time these two sides met the Dees walked away with a comfortable 57-point win, and based one everything we’ve seen so far, it’s likely a similar story unfolds this time around.
Defensively, Melbourne was a joy to watch last week as they held the Tigers to just three goals in the second half – a pretty concerning sign for a North side that ranks dead last in goals scored this year by a big margin.
It’s fair to say this is the kind of game the Demons of old would find a way to lose, but with confidence sky high and North at an all-time low, an upset seems very, very unlikely.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-56.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday, May 2, 3:20pm, MCG
Massive game this one between 12th and 13th on the ladder.
After a tough start to the season through injury, the baby Bombers finally gave their fans something to cheer about last week with a 24-point triumph over Collingwood on ANZAC Day.
As for Carlton, it’s fair to say the 18-point margin against the Lions last week didn’t do the Blues any justice.
David Teague’s side did well to put pressure on Brisbane throughout various stages of the game, while another six-goal bag from Harry McKay was also a very encouraging sign.
Carlton will take tremendous confidence into this game knowing they’ve won three of their last five over the Dons, which also includes last year’s one-point thriller at the ‘G before teams were relocated to Queensland.
That said, the Bombers do look a little hard done by in the market after last week’s triumph.
For the first time in a long time the Dons appeared to have some real direction heading forward with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti being the catalyst in front of goal.
Essendon also showed some real poise through the midfield to dominate the disposal count, and if they can bring that same class to the field on Sunday, they should go a long way to making it two in a row.
This game will no doubt be very physical, but with the Bombers playing some inspired footy of late, the current price on offer looks too good to ignore.
Tip: Back Essendon to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90
West Coast Eagles
Sunday, May 2, 4:40pm, Optus Stadium
West Coast will be hoping to bounce-back this week with its 11th straight win over Fremantle.
The Eagles suffered a mighty 97-point blow at the hands of the Cats in Geelong last week, a performance Adam Simpson labeled as “embarrassing” and “weak” in his post-game press conference.
Fortunately, West Coast returns home to face their rivals – a welcome sign considering the Eagles have won all three of their games in Perth by double digits so far.
Freo will feel equally as confident heading into this game though after dismantling North Melbourne by eight goals.
The Dockers were a popular pick to qualify for the finals this year, and so far, Justin Longmuir’s side has given fans plenty to cheer about sitting sixth on the ladder.
While last week’s loss was a new low for West Coast, the club does have plenty to feel positive about heading into the first Derby of the year.
Josh Kennedy looks a good chance to play after missing the game against the Cats, while there’s also hope for the likes of Elliot Yeo and Brendon Ah Chee.
Overall, this is an enormous test for both sides, but the edge does go to West Coast based on their recent Derby success and the fact they should receive see several of their stars back in the lineup.
The Eagles have covered in three of their last four games as the favourite against Fremantle, so with the line set at just over a goal, it’s worth backing West Coast to add to that number.
Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90
Hub life took another turn during the week with the AFL announcing they no longer plan to play any home/away games in Victoria for the remainder of the season.
The news means this could be one of the final few rounds where we see clubs play outside of Queensland, and just like last week, there is almost even money to be found in just about every market.
Round 7’s highlights include a top-eight battle on Thursday night between Geelong and Collingwood, while the Giants and Lions are both looking to bounce back when they meet on Saturday afternoon.
Fans are also treated to a rare Monday night encounter between the Saints and the Crows under lights at the Adelaide Oval.
With trends made meaningless, tipping remains an absolute guessing game, but we’ve still done the homework for you in our complete 2020 AFL Round 7 Preview below.
Thursday, July 16, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium
The top eight is set to change dramatically on Thursday night when the second-place Cats meet the fifth-place Pies at Optus Stadium.
Geelong coach Chris Scott will be looking to employ similar tactics this week after his side handled the conditions at the SCG perfectly in their big win over the Lions last Thursday night.
Likewise, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley will be hoping the Pies can build on their huge win over Hawthorn on a ground that has caused plenty of happiness and heartbreak in recent years.
On the injury front, the Cats are set to receive a big boost with Jack Steven due to return, but there is concern for Mitch Duncan, who injured his hamstring last week against Brisbane.
Collingwood has plenty of problems themselves with last weeks first goal-kicker Will Kelly now out for the season, while Matt Scharenberg will be tested later in the week with a rib injury.
The Pies and Cats met twice last year with both games being decided by less than three goals.
Collingwood defeated Geelong in the qualifying finals last time out, but it’s fair to say the Cats have held the wood over the Pies in recent times with three wins from their last four games.
This is easily the toughest fixture to pick of Round 10, but with the Pies nursing a long list of outs, you have to side with the in-form Geelong to keep on rolling.
Tip: Back Geelong to Win 1-39 @ $2.40
Friday, July 17, 7:50pm, Metricon Stadium
The Bombers have proven themselves as a contender this year with two gritty wins over Collingwood and North Melbourne in succession.
Essendon is set to face another big test on Friday night against a Bulldogs team that typically responds well to a previous loss.
Luke Beveridge’s side fell well short of the mark last week in treacherous conditions against Carlton, but their 3-2 record on the back of a previous loss over the last calendar year suggests they should respond.
The Dons’ injury list remains a mile long, but they’ve so far proven they can overcome the absence of Jake Stringer and Dyson Heppell.
The Dogs, on the other hand, looked a little troubled last week without Josh Dunkley, while the loss of Aaron Naughton is also starting to show.
If you’ve been keeping count, you’ll know the Dogs have held the wood over Essendon recently winning each of their last five meetings.
That said, this is an entirely different task up on the Gold Coast, although both sides do have a game under their belt at Metricon.
Like the market suggests, there really isn’t much separating these two sides, but with the Dogs’ win streak in mind and their tendency to bounce-back, you it’s hard to go past them.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday, July 18, 1:45pm, GIANTS Stadium
The Lions will be looking to put their nine day rest advantage to good use on Saturday as they continue to adjust to life in Sydney.
Chris Fagan’s players have had an extra few days to reflect on what could have been last week against Geelong at the SCG, but they won’t want to spend too much time dwelling on the past as they face another tough test against the Giants.
GWS’ roller-coaster season continued last week with a narrow loss to Port Adelaide on the Gold Coast. Not surprisingly, Leon Cameron’s side has been well-backed in the market returning home to GIANTS Stadium.
The Lions are hoping Hugh McCluggage and Mitch Robinson can prove fit later in the week, while GWS prepares for life without Callan Ward for the next month.
The Lions got off to a fast start against the Cats before running out of steam in the second quarter, so it’s tough to know what to make of them heading into this clash.
If one thing is for sure, they should appreciate playing on a much wider ground compared to last week, and considering only three points separated these two clubs in the finals last year, there’s lots to like about Brisbane at the line.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $2.00
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, July 18, 4:35pm, SCG
A return home to Sydney couldn’t have come at a better time for the Swans following last weeks horror show against Richmond at the Gabba.
The Bloods managed only three goals in what was easily the worst game of footy so far this season, while the eight-point loss also leaves Sydney fighting for life sitting second-last on the ladder.
Speaking of the eight, the Suns still find themselves in the conversation despite back-to-back losses to Geelong and Melbourne.
The Gold Coast have enjoyed an extra week to acclimatise to life in Sydney as they hope Izak Rankine can continue to fill the void left by the injured Matt Rowell.
Rankine was enormous last week in the loss the Dees kicking three goals, and with the rate the Swans are allowing points this year, he might just have himself another big day out.
The Suns have typically struggled against Sydney losing nine of their last 10 meetings, but they do come into this game in much better shape compared to the Swans.
The Swans suffered two devastating losses last week with Isaac Heeney suffering a season-ending ankle injury, while Josh Kennedy it out for the next month with knee troubles.
For a club already scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of depth, the Suns look great value at the current quote.
Tip: Back the Suns to Win @ $1.72
Saturday, July 18, 7:40pm, Metricon Stadium
It was no surprise to watch Richmond struggle for points last week with a long list of players on the sidelines.
The Tigers still got the job done however in their less than exciting eight-point win over the Swans, a result that has vaulted Richmond back up to sixth on the ladder for the time being.
North Melbourne, meanwhile, find themselves at the opposite end of the spectrum after suffering a fourth straight defeat against the Bombers last week.
A win for Richmond could potentially see them back into the top four if results go their way – a massive turnaround for a club that looked a shell of their former selves when the season restarted.
The Kangaroos have received some good news on the injury front with Jack Ziebell set to return from a hamstring injury, while the Trent Cotchin looks likely to miss another game with similar troubles.
Despite what the ladder suggests, the Tigers are still far from their usual selves and there are still a long list of outs for them to overcome this week.
North, on the other hand, only need to rewind back to last years memorable 30-point win over Richmond if they are short on motivation.
The Roos are also 2-0 as the “away” underdog against Richmond, and while this game will be played on neutral turf at Metricon, there’s every chance North keep this one close.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $2.00
Sunday, July 19, 1:05pm, Gabba
The Blues will be looking to get the Gabba monkey off their back this week when they host Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon.
Carlton has lost each of its last five games up in Brisbane, but if they turn up to play like they did last week against the Dogs, they should prove tough to beat.
Port Adelaide also bounced-back in Round 6 with a hard-fought win over the Giants on the Gold Coast. The Power have also had their struggles at the Gabba, most recently against the Lions a fortnight ago where they lost by 37-points.
There is good news on the injury front for Ken Hinkley with key midfielder Xavier Duursma a chance to return to the side, while Steven Motlop remains a wait-and-see after suffering a concussion last week.
The Blues have a few key concerns themselves with Patrick Cripps and Marc Murphy waiting on scans at the time of publish.
Port has won its last three games over Carlton, but on the heels of a resounding win over the Dogs last week, you have to like the look of the Blues at the line – providing they field a full-strength squad.
Carlton have covered in four of their last six matches as the line underdog against Port, leaving the +15.5 looking very generous.
Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $2.00
Sunday, July 19, 3:35pm, GIANTS Stadium
Too old and too slow, that’s been the talk about the Hawks over the last fortnight.
Hawthorn faces a must-win game on Sunday after suffering back-to-back losses to GWS and Collingwood, and as the odds suggest, a win here against Melbourne is far from a guarantee.
The Dees were up and about last week in their 17-point win over the Suns – Melbourne’s first victory since the restart.
It’s tough to read too much into a win over the understrength Suns, but it was still a result Simon Goodwin’s men can build on moving forward.
Working in Melbourne’s favour this week is their list. The Dees come in relatively unscathed following their game against the Suns, while the Hawks are licking their wounds in a big way with Jonathon Patton re-injuring his hamstring last Friday night.
Luke Breust is also two weeks away from a return, while Mitch Lewis is 50/50 to play with a hip injury.
When you throw in the fact the Dees have won their last two games against the Hawks and have also covered in four of their last six as the line underdog, suddenly Melbourne doesn’t look a bad bet.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $2.00
West Coast Eagles
Sunday, July 19, 6:35pm, Optus Stadium
We seemed to be heading for a less than exciting Western Derby a fortnight ago, but fortunately these two clubs have really turned it on in recent weeks.
The Eagles are firm favourites in betting coming off back-to-back wins over the Swans and Crows, but there’s lots to love about Freo right now after recording two consecutive wins themselves over the Crows and Saints.
West Coast have had it fairly easy in recent weeks against the league’s bottom two clubs, while the Dockers pulled off one of the wins of the season last week coming back from a five-goal first quarter deficit to stun St Kilda.
A win on Sunday would make it 10 Western Derby wins in a row for West Coast, but it would be very surprising to see Freo not make a contest out of this after such a long time away from home.
With Nat Fyfe set to play and a double-digit line, Freo gets the nod.
Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (+16.5 Points) @ $2.00
Monday, July 20, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Brett Ratten suffered a coaches worst nightmare last week as he watched his side squander an early five-goal lead against Fremantle.
The Saints would have spent plenty of time reflecting on what went wrong in their remarkable loss, but they do get a chance to right the ship on Monday against the winless Crows down in Adelaide.
Despite what the scoreboard suggests, there were some encouraging signs from the Crows last week in their 33-point loss to West Coast.
Adelaide were in the game during the first half, while some big individual performances from Brodie Smith and Matt Crouch at least left fans with some positives to fall back on.
Unfortunately, the Crows will go without Rory Sloane for the next month or so as he recovers from thumb surgery, but there is good news on the Tex Walker front with the big man a chance to return from a knee problem this week.
The Saints, on the other hand, are in much better shape with no real injury news to report, and they shouldn’t be short on motivation as they look to earn their first win against the Crows since 2011.
Tip: Back St Kilda 1-39 @ $1.90
If you’re all about lazy Sunday afternoons, the AFL has a treat instore for you.
There are three huge games to choose from this weekend with serious ladder implications on the line, so if it’s value you’re after, be sure to check out our entire 2019 AFL Round 7 Preview below.
Friday May 3, 7:50pm, Marvel Stadium
Marvel plays host to this Friday night meeting between third and fifth, a game that promises to hold plenty of surprises.
Collingwood returns to the pitch after last Thursday’s controversial Anzac Day encounter with Essendon, a game that once again showcased the character of Nathan Buckey’s experienced side on the grandest stage.
Port Adelaide held on for a nail-biting win of their own over North Melbourne. It wasn’t the prettiest win, but Sam Gray’s four goal performance was enough to see the Power over the line by 16-points.
These two sides met only once last year in a blowout 115-64 Collingwood win at home, snapping Port’s four-game winning streak over the Pies. The odds suggest Ken Hinkey’s side are no chance this week in Melbourne, but it’s fair to say the stats suggest otherwise.
We should be in for a close game between two sides that rank first and third in effective disposals. Collingwood’s first quarter last week against the Bombers was frighteningly good, but the Power can easily contain the Pies through the midfield – something they’ve done all year to lead the league in contested possession.
To make things even more interesting, both sides also rank first and second in marks inside 50. This line looks a little wide – so back the Power to keep this close.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 1:45pm, MCG
Simon Goodwin’s side had an extra couple of days to stew on their Anzac Eve loss to the Tigers, a game that has sunk the Demons all the way to the bottom of the ladder.
Melbourne’s five losses this season have all come in blowout fashion, but perhaps the Dees can find solace in the fact Hawthorn nearly slipped up to Carlton at home last week.
There’s no two ways about it: Alastair Clarkson’s side was awful in the first half. Launceston is normally a fortress for the Hawks, but a poor opening quarter quickly turned into a six-goal comeback as Hawthorn clung to a narrow five-point win.
Neither of these sides look particularly convincing, but you can expect Hawthorn to seek revenge on last year’s blowout Semi-Final loss. The Dees, meanwhile, will look to carry on without Jack Viney following last week’s vicious Sydney Stack hit.
This is by far the most intriguing market of the weekend, and with some strong odds on offer, it’s worth having a play head-to-head. The Hawks find themselves as the narrow favourite, a scenario they are 4-1 in as the away side against Melbourne.
The Hawks did a lot wrong in the first half last week, but the coach did a lot right. Clarkson changed things up in the third term, which tilted the pitch in Hawthorn’s favour leaving the Blues scrambled for answers.
You already know Clarkson is a genius, but the Hawks should rest easy knowing they hold a distinct advantage inside 50. Jaeger O’Meara notched 42 disposals last week, while Chad Wingard and Issac Smith continue to lift when required. The Demons back line could be in for a long afternoon.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 1:45pm, Manuka Oval
With four wins apiece, there’s plenty more than just bragging rights on the line here.
The Giants cut a path through the Swans last week on their way to winning their sixth Sydney Derby. GWS were particularly impressive with the ball in hand dominating the disposal count, which in turn led to 57 inside 50 entries and eventually, 18 goals.
St. Kilda, well let’s just say the Saints were a step behind against Adelaide on Saturday. Alan Richardson’s side strung together a strong third quarter, but the damage had already been done in the second term as the Saints trailed by three goals at the main break.
This mightn’t look like a Friday night blockbuster, but keep in mind these two sides put together a pair of thrillers last year.
In Round 5 the pair drew level at Marvel, followed by a resounding 25-point win for the Giants at home in Round 19.
Despite their fast start to the season, the bookies appear to want nothing to do with the Saints. The Giants are 6-4 as the home favourite over the last 12 months and a perfect 2-0 in the same situation against St. Kilda.
Really, it’s hard to disagree with the odds. Stephen Coniglio, Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene combined for 10 goals last week against the Swans, while Cameron alone is averaging well over two goals a game against the Saints. This one could be a harsh reality check for the red, white and black.
Tip: Back the Giants 1-39 @ $2.12
Saturday May 4, 4:35pm, The Gabba
A 49-point win over the Suns was enough to vault the Lions back inside the Top 8, but there was no such luck for the Swans last week at home.
Without Buddy Franklin, GWS were too good for the Swans winning by 41-points. John Longmire’s side is still searching for its second win of the season, and although the Swans have won 11 straight against Brisbane, this weekend’s trip to The Gabba will be no easy feat.
It wasn’t the most exciting game of footy, but the Lions got the job done by kicking away in the third quarter. Cam Rayner and Mitch Robinson enjoyed a big day combining for six goals, while Chris Fagan’s side also rediscovered their mojo through the midfield dominating the tackles and clearances.
Sydney have plenty of problems to address, and although the Swans are 4-3 as the away underdogs over the last 12 months, they’ll have to do without Franklin for the second week in a row.
This is a crucial game in Brisbane’s season if they wish to play finals. Brisbane are yet to string together four consistent quarters of footy, and they’ll need to be wary of a Sydney side that leads the league in rebound 50’s.
The Swans have enjoyed unparalleled success in this fixture, but they are also 4-3 as the line underdog on the road over the last 12 months. If Buddy plays, this one is going down to the wire.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 7:25pm, Marvel Stadium
If Saturday’s game turns out anything like last year’s Round 23 thriller, we should be in for a real treat.
The Tigers survived a scare last year against the Dogs to win by three-points, but if recent form is anything to go by, Richmond should have no trouble laying on the hurt against Luke Beveridge’s side this time around.
Richmond stormed home to yet another Anzac Eve victory last week winning by 43-points. The good news is Jason Castagna booted three goals, which became even more meaningful on Saturday after the club announced Jack Riewoldt will miss eight weeks with a PCL injury.
The Dogs escaped Perth unscathed last week, but they failed to secure three points against Fremantle. To their credit, the Doggies fought back to lead midway through the third quarter, but that wasn’t enough to stop David Mundy who booted a pair of goals in his 300th game.
The last three encounters between these two sides have been decided by 10-points or less, but it’s tough to imagine the Dogs mustering up a fight this week. The red and blue lead the league in behinds, a similar story to last year, and even without Riewoldt on the field, the Tigers should still be able to dominate the inside 50’s.
Tip: Back the Tigers 1-39 @ $2.05
West Coast Eagles
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday May 4, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium
It’s only fitting two sides on the heels of two straight losses meet this weekend in Perth.
After a thrilling start to the season the Suns have looked a little underdone in recent weeks losing in back-to-back blowout fashion at the hands of the Crows and the Lions.
Likewise, the reigning premiers have also been on the wrong end of the scoreboard falling to the Power at home and the Cats last week in Geelong.
A trip to Optus Stadium is the last thing Stuart Dew’s side needs right now, especially considering the Suns are yet to win a game against West Coast in Perth.
The biggest problem for the Eagles of late has been the midfield. West Coast gave up 444 disposals to the Cats last week, and have shown little ability to win the hard, contested footy.
Despite what the scoreboard reads, the Suns were in the contest last week against the Lions – at least up until halftime. Gold Coast weren’t disgraced on the stat sheet, they simply couldn’t find any sort of freedom inside 50 managing only 17 shots at goal.
In their eight-year history, the Suns have won only once against West Coast back in 2017. This game is hardly worth overthinking, but with such little value on offer head-to-head and a large line set, it’s probably one to leave out of your multi.
Tip: No Bet
Sunday May 5, 1:10pm, Marvel Stadium
The Blues were right on the verge of triumph last week before everything went pear shaped in the third quarter.
Carlton held a six-goal advantage over the Hawks in Launceston, only to allow Alastair Clarkson’s side to erase the lead in the fourth quarter going on to win by five-points.
Despite the loss, things still look promising for the Blues, which is more than you can say for North Melbourne right now. The Roos find themselves second from the bottom with one win to their name, surrounded by criticism and question marks with very little to play for.
If you act fast you should be able to snag the Blues at a handy price this week. The bookies are struggling to separate the two, although it is worth noting the Roos own four wins on the trot over Carlton.
The Blues went without Charlie Curnow last week, which left much of the workload in the hands of Mitch McGovern and Harry McKay. Patrick Cripps was unbelievable tallying 28 disposals, not to be outdone by veteran Dale Thomas.
North have the pieces to win this game, but it’s their belief that causes question. Ben Brown has looked a shell of his former self so far this year, while North still look incapable of weathering a momentum storm.
Everything points towards a Blues win this week. Sunday’s game marks the first time in 12 months Carlton have entered as the favourite, so make sure you take advantage of the odds.
Tip: Back Carlton To Win @ $1.85
Sunday May 5, 3:20pm, MCG
Never has a first v tenth battle felt this important.
The Bombers came agonizingly close to upsetting the Pies on Anzac Day, only to fall short by four points in rather controversial fashion. To their credit, John Worsfold’s side played with serious guts, and it was encouraging to watch Joe Daniher and Jake Stringer make a serious impact on the scoresheet.
Geelong made a statement at home against the Eagles, thumping the reigning premiers by 58-points. The Cats sit four points clear on top of the table and not surprisingly lead the league in goals kicked.
You can expect a big turnout on Sunday to witness what could be a finals preview. These two sides played only once last year, a 34-point Essendon win in front of a big crowd at the ‘G.
Recent history suggests we could be in for another blowout this weekend considering four of the last five meetings between these two sides have been decided by 20-points or more. It’s also worth noting the Cats haven’t defeated the Bombers since 2016.
Of course, Geelong enter the weekend as the serious home favourite, a scenario they are 8-1 in over the last 12 months. Still, the Bombers look real value as the line underdog, a scenario they are 5-2 in all games against the Cats.
Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday May 5, 4:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Pegged as the two sleeper sides in the competition, it’s only fitting the Crows close out Round 7 with a huge home game against the Dockers.
Fremantle have snuck into the second spot on the ladder thanks to two straight blowout wins over the Giants and Bulldogs. David Mundy shined in his 300th game last week, but it remains to be seen if the Dockers can pull off a huge upset on the road in Adelaide.
The last time the Dockers won down south was in 2015, but Ross Lyon’s side have shown they can win on the road by defeating the Giants in Canberra a fortnight ago.
As for the Crows, the pressure is also on. Adelaide have won just one of their three games at home to start the season, but last week’s 29-point victory over St. Kilda highlighted just how dangerous the Crows are when Taylor Walker is at his best.
These two sides played out a classic in Round 12 last year, a game the Dockers won by three-points at home. Fremantle find themselves as the serious outsiders this week, a scenario they are 2-5 in against the Crows on the road.
Adelaide have their issues, but the Crows midfield has played exceptionally well in recent weeks dominating the disposal count. Don Pyke’s side are 5-2 as the home favourite against the Dockers, so back the Crows to make it three in a row.
Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.04
We are set for a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster in the AFL this weekend as Geelong host Greater Western Sydney in a massive game for both sides.
The big games continue on Saturday when the West Coast Eagles take on Port Adelaide in a rematch of last year’s thrilling Elimination Final, while high-flying Richmond will be in action against Fremantle on Sunday.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 AFL Round 7 tips can be found below.
Friday 4 May, 7:50pm, GMHBA Stadium
Cats 93-Giants 32
This is an outstanding way to start the round and we are set for a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster!
Geelong capitulated late against Sydney last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as favourites and they will likely be buoyed by the return of Gary Ablett.
The Cats have won only four of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a very poor 1-6 against the line in this scenario.
Their goalkicking continues to be an issue, but the Giants were still able to record a comfortable win over the Brisbane Lions and their only loss so far this season came at the hands of Sydney.
The Giants don’t start many games as underdogs and they don’t have a great record when they do – they have won only one of their past five games as underdogs and their record against the line isn’t any better.
The betting market that does appeal in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting.
Backing the Under in games involving either of these sides has been a profitable play over the past 12 months and the Under has saluted in nine of the past 13 games played at GMHBA Stadium.
Back Under 164.5 Points
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 5 May, 1:45pm, Mars Stadium
Dogs 81-Suns 72
The Western Bulldogs have taken their home game against the Gold Coast Suns to Mars Stadium in Ballarat and they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
The Bulldogs returned to winning form over Carlton last weekend and their record against the Suns is outstanding – they have won the past four games played between the two sides.
They have won five of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 3-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Gold Coast Suns showed some fight in the second half, but they were still no match for the Adelaide Crows last weekend and they continue to struggle against the best teams in the competition.
Gold Coast have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.
This is another game where the real value lies in the Total Points betting market.
The Under has saluted in 14 of the past 22 games played by the Western Bulldogs and has also proven to be a profitable betting play in Suns games over the past 12 months.
Back Under 164.5 Points
Saturday 5 May, 2:10pm, MCG
Dons 67-Hawks 90
The Essendon Football Club are under severe pressure after a pair of poor losses and they will go into this clash as clear underdogs.
A great deal was expected of Essendon heading into this season, but they have not delivered and they were soundly beaten by both Collingwood and Melbourne.
The Bombers have won six of their past 14 games as underdogs for a profit and they are 8-6 against the line in this situation.
Hawthorn returned to winning form with a professional performance against St Kilda and there has been a lot to like about the way that they have played this season to date.
The Hawks have won five of their past seven games as favourites and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
The Under has saluted in 16 of the past 22 games played by Hawthorn and has also been a profitable play in Essendon games over the past 12 months – so I will once again be playing in the Total Points betting market.
Back Under 177.5 Points
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 5 May, 4:35pm, Optus Stadium
Eagles 102 - Port 60
This is one of the biggest games of the weekend and will be an excellent test of exactly where these teams are at.
It has been an excellent start to the season for the West Coast Eagles and they made it five wins on the trot with their thrilling win over Fremantle in the Western Derby.
West Coast will go into this clash as favourites and they have won six of their past nine games as home favourites, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide were famously knocked out of the AFL Finals last season by a late Luke Shuey goal and they will be keen for revenge.
The away team has actually won the past six games played between these two sides and winning in Perth has not been an issue for Port Adelaide.
The Power have won two of their past four games as away underdogs and they are 3-1 against the line in this scenario.
There really is nothing between these two sides and I am keen to back the Power with the insurance of a 4.5 points start.
Back Port Adelaide To Cover The Line (+4.5 Points)
Saturday 5 May, 7:25pm, SCG
Swans 66 - North 68
The Sydney Swans are dominant favourites to account for North Melbourne in this Saturday night clash.
Sydney came from behind to beat Geelong last weekend and their recent record against North Melbourne is excellent – they have won five of the past six games played between these two sides.
The Swans have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in eight of these victories for a clear profit.
North Melbourne may have gone down to Port Adelaide last weekend, but they have still made a strong start to the season and have greatly outperformed pre-season expectations.
The Kangaroos have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that Sydney should be able to win comfortably and the line of 33.5 points will not be enough.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-33.5 Points)
Saturday 5 May, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Crows 125-Blues 70
Adelaide are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend and the line for this clash is a sizeable 55.5 points.
The Crows flew out of the blocks against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend and they didn’t really go on with the job in the second half, but still recorded a comfortable win.
Adelaide have won nine of their past 14 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of those wins, while they have won their past three games against Carlton.
Carlton are still chasing their first win this season and they slumped to their sixth straight defeat with a fairly lacklustre performance against the Western Bulldogs.
The Navy Blues have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this situation and they haven’t been disgraced in their recent meetings against the Crows.
There is no doubt that Adelaide should win this game comfortably, but the line of 55.5 points does seem excessive and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday 6 May, 1:10pm, MCG
TIgers 110-Freo 33
Richmond just keep on winning and it should come as no surprise that the defending Premiers and competition leaders will go into this clash with Fremantle as clear favourites.
Both Melbourne and Collingwood were able to stay in touch with Richmond in the first three quarters, but the relentless pressure applied by the Tigers told late on their rivals and the premiership favourites raced away in the final term.
Richmond have now won 12 games on the trot at the MCG – their all-time record – and they have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle may have lost the Western Derby against the West Coast Eagles, but they were not disgraced and they have been more than competitive in every one of their games so far this season.
The Dockers have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs, but they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
Backing the Under in games involving Richmond has been a highly profitable betting play and the Under has saluted in nine of their past 12 games at the MCG.
This has a low-scoring affair written all over it and this is another game in which I am keen to back the Under.
Back Under 168.5 Points
Sunday 6 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Saints 67-Dees 106
This is the type of game that Melbourne desperately need to win if they are going to be any chance of playing finals in 2018.
Melbourne were able to return to winning form with a strong effort against Essendon and a repeat of that effort would likely be more than enough to account for St Kilda.
Winning as favourites continues to be something of an issue for Melbourne – they have won eight of their past 14 games as the punter’s elect and they are a poor 5-9 against the line when giving away a start.
St Kilda have not won a game since their opening round victory over the Brisbane Lions and poor kicking as well as awful skill errors continues to cost them.
The Saints have won only one of their past 12 games as underdogs and they have covered the line in only three of their past 12 games when receiving a start.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a punting perspective.
Sunday 6 May, 4:40pm, The Gabba
Lions 114-Magpies 121
The Brisbane Lions are still chasing their first win of the season and they will go into this clash with Collingwood as clear underdogs.
Aside from their heavy loss at the hands of Richmond, Brisbane have generally been competitive this season, but they will still need to go to another level to be a genuine chance against Collingwood.
They have won only two of their past seven games as home underdogs and they are a lacklustre 3-4 against the line in that scenario.
Collingwood came up short against Richmond in the final quarter last weekend and they are still a level below the best sides in the competition, but there has still been plenty of positives about their start to the season.
The Magpies have won three of their past four games as away favourites for a clear profit and they have covered the line in each of these wins.
Collingwood can return to winning form and the line of 19.5 points will not be enough.
Back Collingwood To Cover The Line (-19.5 Points)
The 2017 AFL season continues to throw up plenty of upsets and the round six action was full of a number of surprising results.
The Adelaide Crows are the only unbeaten team left in the competition and should continue their winning ways when they face North Melbourne, while Sydney have the chance to score their first win of the year when they host the Brisbane Lions.
We have analysed all the big games this weekend and our AFL Round 7 tips can be found below.
Friday 5 May, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 108 - GWS Giants 85
The GWS Giants overcame the Western Bulldogs in a thriller last Friday night and they are clear favourites to account for St Kilda this weekend.
Greater Western Sydney have now recorded five wins on the trot and there is plenty to suggest that they should be able to continue their winning ways.
The Giants have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites and they have won their past three meetings with St Kilda.
St Kilda produced their best performance of the career to date to record a dominant victory against Hawthorn and they will go into this clash with some confidence.
The Saints have won three of their past six games as home underdogs for a clear profit and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
In saying that, the line for this clash really does not look like enough and if the Giants perform at anywhere near their best they should prove too strong for a St Kilda outfit that is simply not up to their level.
Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)
Saturday 6 May, 1:45pm, Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne 145 - Adelaide Crows 86
North Melbourne recorded their first win of the season against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.
The Adelaide Crows continued their outstanding start to the season with a dominant display against Richmond and they continue to play excellent football.
Adelaide have won eight of their past nine games as away favourites and they are an even more impressive 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne did enough to get the job done against Gold Coast, but they would still need to improve significantly to have any chance whatsoever against the Crows.
The Kangaroos have lost their past six games as home underdogs and they are an only middling 3-3 against the line.
Adelaide should be able to continue on their winning ways and they are good enough to cover the big line of 39.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-39.5 Points)
Saturday 6 May, 2:10pm, MCG
Collingwood 56 - Carlton 79
The rivalry between Collingwood and Carlton is one of the fiercest in the AFL and this should be an interesting – if not high-quality game – between the two sides.
Collingwood produced their best effort of the season to beat Geelong in convincing fashion last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Winning as favourites has proven to be a big issue for Collingwood – they have won just three of their past eight games as the punter’s elect.
Carlton returned to winning form with an upset victory over the Sydney Swans and that is a performance that they are sure to take a fair amount of confidence from.
The Blues have won six of their past 18 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 10-8 against the line in this scenario.
There is never a great deal between these two sides when they square-off at the MCG and the Blues do have a genuine chance of recording another upset win.
Back Carlton To Win @ $3.20
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 6 May, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 87 - West Coast Eagles 97
Port Adelaide head into this clash on the back of two heavy wins and they are clear favourites to make it three wins on the trot.
They may have only beaten Carlton and the Brisbane Lions, but you can’t help but be impressed with the way that Port Adelaide have performed over the past fortnight.
The Power have won four of their past six games as home favourites and more impressively they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
West Coast returned to winning form with a comprehensive effort against Fremantle and this will be a good test to see just where the Eagles are at so far this season.
They have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a profit and it should be noted that the Eagles have won the past two games between these two sides – both of which have been played at the Adelaide Oval.
There is no doubt that Port Adelaide deserve to be favourites, but there is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and West Coast do represent some value at their current price.
Back West Coast To Win @ $3.35
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 6 May, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast Suns 124 - Collingwood 80
There will be plenty of intrigue in this clash as Gary Ablett takes on his old – and potentially future club – Geelong.
Geelong suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Collingwood, but they are clear favourites to bounce back to winning form this weekend.
The Cats have not been the most reliable betting team as away favourites over the past 12 months and they have won seven of their past ten games in this scenario, while they are 5-5 against the line in this situation.
Gold Coast suffered another disappointing loss at the hands of North Melbourne last weekend and they really are a side that don’t inspire a great deal of confidence.
The Suns have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs for a clear loss and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Saturday 6 May, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 80 - Richmond 75
Richmond suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Adelaide last weekend and they face another tough assignment against the Western Bulldogs.
The Tigers received a serious reality check at the hands of the Crows and another heavy defeat would cast a serious shadow over their top four chances.
Richmond have won only four of their past 13 games as away underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs lost no admirers with their narrow defeat at the hands of the Greater Western Sydney Giants and a similar performance would ensure that they are too strong for Richmond.
The Bulldogs have won 12 of their past 15 games as home favourites, but they are only 6-9 against the line in this scenario.
It is tough to find value in this clash, but the Under in the Total Points betting market really does look like excellent value.
The Under has saluted in 25 of the past 44 games played by the Western Bulldogs at the venue and the current line is a big 186.5 points.
Back Under 186.5 Points
Sunday 7 May, 1:10pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 135 - Brisbane Lions 81
What has happened to the Sydney Swans?
Sydney looked like an absolute lock to make the top four at the start of the season, but they are yet to win a game this season and they hit a new low when they went down to Carlton last weekend.
They will still go into this clash with the Brisbane Lions as clear favourites and if they can’t get the job done it is tough to see where their first victory is going to come from.
The Lions have not beaten the Swans since 2009, but the Swans have won only six of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 5-7 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane suffered a very heavy defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide last weekend, but so far this season their best performances have come on the road.
They have only won two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario and they are being given a massive start by the bookies.
Betting against Sydney has been a profitable betting play all season long and I’m taking a gamble on the Lions.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+38.5 Points)
Sunday 7 May, 3:20pm, MCG
Melbourne 91 - Hawthorn 94
This is the first time that Melbourne have started a game with Hawthorn as favourites for some time.
The Demons finally ended their losing run against the Hawks last season and the market suggests that they will be too strong for their rivals once again this season.
Melbourne ended their losing streak with a victory over Essendon last weekend and this is a key game as they attempt to get their season back on tracks.
The Demons have won six of their past nine games as favourites, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario and always a tricky side to trust as the punter’s elect.
Hawthorn regressed spectacularly once again last weekend against St Kilda and they are almost an impossible team to trust from a betting standpoint.
They have now won only two of their past six games as away underdogs over the past 12 months and their record against the line is no better.
This is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of this weekend.
Sunday 7 May, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 116 - Essendon 79
This is set to be another competitive fixture as there really is not a great deal between these two sides.
The Dockers had their winning run ended by the West Coast Eagles, but they will still go into this clash with Essendon as clear favourites.
Fremantle have won their past two games as home favourites and they have been a profitable betting play as the punter’s elect.
Essendon produced a fairly flat performance against Melbourne and they really have struggled for any sort of consistency.
The Bombers have lost their past seven games as away underdogs and they are a very poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle should be able to return to winning form this weekend and they are a nice bet to comfortably cover the line.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points)
This is far from the biggest round of the 2016 AFL season, but there are still a number of exciting contests.
The action begins on Friday night when the struggling Richmond do battle with defending premiers Hawthorn before Geelong host West Coast Eagles at Skilled Stadium in a genuine Saturday afternoon blockbuster.
The Western Bulldogs face the Adelaide Crows in what could be the most exciting game of the weekend, while North Melbourne will have the chance to defend their unbeaten run when they take on St Kilda on Sunday afternoon.
Friday 6 May, 7:50pm, MCG
Richmond 90 - Hawthorn 136
2016 went from bad to worse for Richmond when they suffered their fifth straight loss against Port Adelaide last weekend and they are massive underdogs to beat Hawthorn this weekend.
It is hard to express simply how poor Richmond have been this season and they will go into this game without both Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance.
The Tigers have an excellent record as underdogs over the past 12 months – they have won five of their seven games in this scenario – but they did not go into those games without arguably their two best players.
Hawthorn do not head into this game in winning form following their big loss against the Greater Western Sydney Giants and that is bad news for the Tigers as the Hawks are 6-0 on the back of a loss in the past 12 months.
The Hawks have been a losing betting proposition as favourites in the past 12 months and their record against Richmond in recent years is surprisingly poor, but it is very easy to see the Hawks coming out and absolutely obliterating the hapless Tigers this weekend.
There are a number of different angles to take into consideration for this fixture and I am happy to stay out of it from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 7 May, 1:45pm, MCG
Collingwood 84 - Carlton 99
The old rivalries are set to do battle in what will be a very intriguing fixture at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
They have played ugly football in doing it, but Carlton go into this game with back-to-back wins on their record after beating Fremantle and Essendon in a pair of very dour contests.
Carlton will still go into this game as clear underdogs and they have won just 3 of their past 20 games in this scenario, while they are 10-10 against the line.
Collingwood gave up very quickly against West Coast last weekend, but they will take confidence from the fact that they have won their past six games against Collingwood.
The Magpies have struggled as favourites in the past 12 months and they are a particularly poor 4-9 against the line as the punter’s elect.
The Blues have shown a toughness, which has been missing from their football for several seasons, in recent weeks and I am keen to back them with a start of 21.5 points in what I believe will be a scrappy affair.
Recommended Bet: Carlton To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 7 May, 2:10pm, Skilled Stadium
Geelong 123 - West Coast Eagles 79
Geelong have an excellent record against the West Coast Eagles at Skilled Stadium and they have not lost to their rivals in front of their home fans since 2006.
The Cats continue to fly under the radar somewhat, but they have now strung together four victories on the trot and they were absolutely ruthless against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend.
Geelong will start this game as clear favourites and they are 6-2 at Skilled Stadium in this scenario, while they are 5-3 against the line.
West Coast rebounded from their disappointing loss against Sydney with a typically strong win over Collingwood, but they face a much tougher challenge this weekend.
The Eagles have something of a reputation as flat-track bullies that generally only win when they are favourites, but West Coast are 4-3 as underdogs in the past 12 months and that record improves to 3-1 when they are away from home.
I am still of the opinion that West Coast are the second best side in the AFL behind Hawthorn and the $2.65 currently on offer stands out as one of the best bets of the round.
Recommended Bet: Back West Coast Eagles To Win @ $2.65
Saturday 7 May, 4:35pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 135 - Essendon 54
The Sydney Swans are the shortest-priced favourites to date this season and go into this game at $1.01 to record their third win on the trot after surviving a scare against Brisbane last weekend.
There is very little doubt that the Swans will win this game, but the real betting interest will be whether they can cover the line of 65.5 points.
The Swans are 6-5 against the line as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they are 2-2 since 2012 when giving away a start of over 65 points.
Essendon were far from impressive against Carlton last weekend, but they were still able to stay in the game for a long way.
This is obviously a much stiffer challenge and it is tough to take confidence from the fact that the Bombers are 4-8 against the line as away underdogs.
This looks like a trap game and I am happy to go back to my rule of not betting on any games that involve the Bombers.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 7 May, 5:10pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast 87 - Melbourne 160
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and at this stage the market is unable to split the two sides.
The Gold Coast Suns made a very promising start to the season, but they head into this game on the back of three straight defeats and they were disgraceful against Geelong last weekend.
The Suns have won just four of their past 12 games at Metricon Stadium, while they are a poor 3-1-11 on the back of a loss in the past 12 months.
Melbourne missed out on an opportunity to record a rare hat-trick of wins when they went down to St Kilda last weekend, but they are still playing a promising brand of football this season.
They have won just three of their past 11 games away from home, but you would actually have made a profit backing the Demons in each of their away games and you could argue that they prefer to be away from the pressure that they receive at the MCG.
As the market suggests it is very tough to split these two sides, but I think the Demons actually have the most upside going forward and can return to winning form this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Demons To Win @ $1.90
Saturday 7 May, 7:40pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 123 - Adelaide Crows 108
The Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows met in a thrilling Elimination Final last season and this could prove to be the match of the round.
This is another game in which the market is unable to split the two teams and both teams have played some excellent football during this season to date.
The Western Bulldogs were unable to beat North Melbourne last weekend and this could be evidence that they have started to feel the effects of their injury crisis, but their record at Etihad Stadium is a big positive and they have won nine of their 13 home fixtures in the past 12 months.
Adelaide were not particularly impressive against Fremantle last weekend, but they were still able to get the job done.
Their record away from Adelaide Oval is only a middling 7-7, but they have won seven of their past 12 games at Etihad Stadium.
I think that the Western Bulldogs can bounce back this weekend – they are 6-3 on the back of a loss – and prove too good for a Crows side that is due for a poor performance.
Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Win @ $1.90
Saturday 7 May, 6:10pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 77 - Greater Western Sydney Giants 95
The Greater Western Sydney Giants are one of the form teams in the competition and they go into this clash on the back of a franchise-best performance against Hawthorn last weekend.
The Giants were absolutely ruthless on both sides of the football and they are dominant favourites to beat the hapless Fremantle Dockers.
Greater Western Sydney are a middling 3-3 against the line as away favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
This will be just the second time in the past 12 months that Fremantle have started a game at Domain Stadium as underdogs, but they did lose that fixtures and they have beaten the line in just two of their past nine games as underdogs.
This is a side that has already given up on this season and if the Greater Western Sydney Giants are serious about playing finals football in 2016 they should be able to cover the line of 21.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back Greater Western Sydney Giants To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)
Sunday 8 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 75 - North Melbourne 82
North Melbourne continue to ride high on top of the AFL ladder and they are clear favourites to continue their unbeaten start to the season.
The Kangaroos were able to tough it out against the Western Bulldogs to claim their sixth straight victory last weekend and they have found a new confidence that has been missing from the side for a number of seasons.
They have proven to be a very safe bet as favourites and have won 15 of their past 17 games in this scenario, while they are 11-6 against the line when giving their opposition a start.
St Kilda were excellent against Melbourne last weekend, but stringing together repeat performances of this quality has been difficult for the Saints and they are 0-6 on the back of a win in the past year.
They have proven an non-profitable betting proposition as underdogs over the same time frame and they are 9-12 against the line when being given a start.
The Kangaroos will be too good for St Kilda and there is plenty of data to suggest that they will cover the line of 22.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-22.5 Points)
Sunday 8 May, 4:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 136 - Brisbane Lions 59
Port Adelaide return to the Adelaide Oval following a smart performance against Richmond last weekend and they have a great chance to record back-to-back victories.
The Power’s woes this season have been well documented and despite returning to the winner’s circle last weekend they continue to be a disappointing betting side.
Port Adelaide have beaten the line in just 6 of their past 17 games as favourites and they are 4-7 as the punter’s elect in front of their home fans at the Adelaide Oval.
The Brisbane Lions gave the Sydney Swans a scare last weekend and they have played some decent football in the past months, but their record away from The Gabba in the past 12 months has been horrendous.
They have won just one of their past 12 games away from home and their record against the line is a truly horrendous 3-9 as away underdogs.
It is tough to have any faith in either of these teams from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this fixture.
Recommended Bet: No Bet