If you’re all about lazy Sunday afternoons, the AFL has a treat instore for you.
There are three huge games to choose from this weekend with serious ladder implications on the line, so if it’s value you’re after, be sure to check out our entire 2019 AFL Round 7 Preview below.
Friday May 3, 7:50pm, Marvel Stadium
Marvel plays host to this Friday night meeting between third and fifth, a game that promises to hold plenty of surprises.
Collingwood returns to the pitch after last Thursday’s controversial Anzac Day encounter with Essendon, a game that once again showcased the character of Nathan Buckey’s experienced side on the grandest stage.
Port Adelaide held on for a nail-biting win of their own over North Melbourne. It wasn’t the prettiest win, but Sam Gray’s four goal performance was enough to see the Power over the line by 16-points.
These two sides met only once last year in a blowout 115-64 Collingwood win at home, snapping Port’s four-game winning streak over the Pies. The odds suggest Ken Hinkey’s side are no chance this week in Melbourne, but it’s fair to say the stats suggest otherwise.
We should be in for a close game between two sides that rank first and third in effective disposals. Collingwood’s first quarter last week against the Bombers was frighteningly good, but the Power can easily contain the Pies through the midfield – something they’ve done all year to lead the league in contested possession.
To make things even more interesting, both sides also rank first and second in marks inside 50. This line looks a little wide – so back the Power to keep this close.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 1:45pm, MCG
Simon Goodwin’s side had an extra couple of days to stew on their Anzac Eve loss to the Tigers, a game that has sunk the Demons all the way to the bottom of the ladder.
Melbourne’s five losses this season have all come in blowout fashion, but perhaps the Dees can find solace in the fact Hawthorn nearly slipped up to Carlton at home last week.
There’s no two ways about it: Alastair Clarkson’s side was awful in the first half. Launceston is normally a fortress for the Hawks, but a poor opening quarter quickly turned into a six-goal comeback as Hawthorn clung to a narrow five-point win.
Neither of these sides look particularly convincing, but you can expect Hawthorn to seek revenge on last year’s blowout Semi-Final loss. The Dees, meanwhile, will look to carry on without Jack Viney following last week’s vicious Sydney Stack hit.
This is by far the most intriguing market of the weekend, and with some strong odds on offer, it’s worth having a play head-to-head. The Hawks find themselves as the narrow favourite, a scenario they are 4-1 in as the away side against Melbourne.
The Hawks did a lot wrong in the first half last week, but the coach did a lot right. Clarkson changed things up in the third term, which tilted the pitch in Hawthorn’s favour leaving the Blues scrambled for answers.
You already know Clarkson is a genius, but the Hawks should rest easy knowing they hold a distinct advantage inside 50. Jaeger O’Meara notched 42 disposals last week, while Chad Wingard and Issac Smith continue to lift when required. The Demons back line could be in for a long afternoon.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 1:45pm, Manuka Oval
With four wins apiece, there’s plenty more than just bragging rights on the line here.
The Giants cut a path through the Swans last week on their way to winning their sixth Sydney Derby. GWS were particularly impressive with the ball in hand dominating the disposal count, which in turn led to 57 inside 50 entries and eventually, 18 goals.
St. Kilda, well let’s just say the Saints were a step behind against Adelaide on Saturday. Alan Richardson’s side strung together a strong third quarter, but the damage had already been done in the second term as the Saints trailed by three goals at the main break.
This mightn’t look like a Friday night blockbuster, but keep in mind these two sides put together a pair of thrillers last year.
In Round 5 the pair drew level at Marvel, followed by a resounding 25-point win for the Giants at home in Round 19.
Despite their fast start to the season, the bookies appear to want nothing to do with the Saints. The Giants are 6-4 as the home favourite over the last 12 months and a perfect 2-0 in the same situation against St. Kilda.
Really, it’s hard to disagree with the odds. Stephen Coniglio, Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene combined for 10 goals last week against the Swans, while Cameron alone is averaging well over two goals a game against the Saints. This one could be a harsh reality check for the red, white and black.
Tip: Back the Giants 1-39 @ $2.12
Saturday May 4, 4:35pm, The Gabba
A 49-point win over the Suns was enough to vault the Lions back inside the Top 8, but there was no such luck for the Swans last week at home.
Without Buddy Franklin, GWS were too good for the Swans winning by 41-points. John Longmire’s side is still searching for its second win of the season, and although the Swans have won 11 straight against Brisbane, this weekend’s trip to The Gabba will be no easy feat.
It wasn’t the most exciting game of footy, but the Lions got the job done by kicking away in the third quarter. Cam Rayner and Mitch Robinson enjoyed a big day combining for six goals, while Chris Fagan’s side also rediscovered their mojo through the midfield dominating the tackles and clearances.
Sydney have plenty of problems to address, and although the Swans are 4-3 as the away underdogs over the last 12 months, they’ll have to do without Franklin for the second week in a row.
This is a crucial game in Brisbane’s season if they wish to play finals. Brisbane are yet to string together four consistent quarters of footy, and they’ll need to be wary of a Sydney side that leads the league in rebound 50’s.
The Swans have enjoyed unparalleled success in this fixture, but they are also 4-3 as the line underdog on the road over the last 12 months. If Buddy plays, this one is going down to the wire.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+15.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 4, 7:25pm, Marvel Stadium
If Saturday’s game turns out anything like last year’s Round 23 thriller, we should be in for a real treat.
The Tigers survived a scare last year against the Dogs to win by three-points, but if recent form is anything to go by, Richmond should have no trouble laying on the hurt against Luke Beveridge’s side this time around.
Richmond stormed home to yet another Anzac Eve victory last week winning by 43-points. The good news is Jason Castagna booted three goals, which became even more meaningful on Saturday after the club announced Jack Riewoldt will miss eight weeks with a PCL injury.
The Dogs escaped Perth unscathed last week, but they failed to secure three points against Fremantle. To their credit, the Doggies fought back to lead midway through the third quarter, but that wasn’t enough to stop David Mundy who booted a pair of goals in his 300th game.
The last three encounters between these two sides have been decided by 10-points or less, but it’s tough to imagine the Dogs mustering up a fight this week. The red and blue lead the league in behinds, a similar story to last year, and even without Riewoldt on the field, the Tigers should still be able to dominate the inside 50’s.
Tip: Back the Tigers 1-39 @ $2.05
West Coast Eagles
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday May 4, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium
It’s only fitting two sides on the heels of two straight losses meet this weekend in Perth.
After a thrilling start to the season the Suns have looked a little underdone in recent weeks losing in back-to-back blowout fashion at the hands of the Crows and the Lions.
Likewise, the reigning premiers have also been on the wrong end of the scoreboard falling to the Power at home and the Cats last week in Geelong.
A trip to Optus Stadium is the last thing Stuart Dew’s side needs right now, especially considering the Suns are yet to win a game against West Coast in Perth.
The biggest problem for the Eagles of late has been the midfield. West Coast gave up 444 disposals to the Cats last week, and have shown little ability to win the hard, contested footy.
Despite what the scoreboard reads, the Suns were in the contest last week against the Lions – at least up until halftime. Gold Coast weren’t disgraced on the stat sheet, they simply couldn’t find any sort of freedom inside 50 managing only 17 shots at goal.
In their eight-year history, the Suns have won only once against West Coast back in 2017. This game is hardly worth overthinking, but with such little value on offer head-to-head and a large line set, it’s probably one to leave out of your multi.
Tip: No Bet
Sunday May 5, 1:10pm, Marvel Stadium
The Blues were right on the verge of triumph last week before everything went pear shaped in the third quarter.
Carlton held a six-goal advantage over the Hawks in Launceston, only to allow Alastair Clarkson’s side to erase the lead in the fourth quarter going on to win by five-points.
Despite the loss, things still look promising for the Blues, which is more than you can say for North Melbourne right now. The Roos find themselves second from the bottom with one win to their name, surrounded by criticism and question marks with very little to play for.
If you act fast you should be able to snag the Blues at a handy price this week. The bookies are struggling to separate the two, although it is worth noting the Roos own four wins on the trot over Carlton.
The Blues went without Charlie Curnow last week, which left much of the workload in the hands of Mitch McGovern and Harry McKay. Patrick Cripps was unbelievable tallying 28 disposals, not to be outdone by veteran Dale Thomas.
North have the pieces to win this game, but it’s their belief that causes question. Ben Brown has looked a shell of his former self so far this year, while North still look incapable of weathering a momentum storm.
Everything points towards a Blues win this week. Sunday’s game marks the first time in 12 months Carlton have entered as the favourite, so make sure you take advantage of the odds.
Tip: Back Carlton To Win @ $1.85
Sunday May 5, 3:20pm, MCG
Never has a first v tenth battle felt this important.
The Bombers came agonizingly close to upsetting the Pies on Anzac Day, only to fall short by four points in rather controversial fashion. To their credit, John Worsfold’s side played with serious guts, and it was encouraging to watch Joe Daniher and Jake Stringer make a serious impact on the scoresheet.
Geelong made a statement at home against the Eagles, thumping the reigning premiers by 58-points. The Cats sit four points clear on top of the table and not surprisingly lead the league in goals kicked.
You can expect a big turnout on Sunday to witness what could be a finals preview. These two sides played only once last year, a 34-point Essendon win in front of a big crowd at the ‘G.
Recent history suggests we could be in for another blowout this weekend considering four of the last five meetings between these two sides have been decided by 20-points or more. It’s also worth noting the Cats haven’t defeated the Bombers since 2016.
Of course, Geelong enter the weekend as the serious home favourite, a scenario they are 8-1 in over the last 12 months. Still, the Bombers look real value as the line underdog, a scenario they are 5-2 in all games against the Cats.
Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday May 5, 4:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Pegged as the two sleeper sides in the competition, it’s only fitting the Crows close out Round 7 with a huge home game against the Dockers.
Fremantle have snuck into the second spot on the ladder thanks to two straight blowout wins over the Giants and Bulldogs. David Mundy shined in his 300th game last week, but it remains to be seen if the Dockers can pull off a huge upset on the road in Adelaide.
The last time the Dockers won down south was in 2015, but Ross Lyon’s side have shown they can win on the road by defeating the Giants in Canberra a fortnight ago.
As for the Crows, the pressure is also on. Adelaide have won just one of their three games at home to start the season, but last week’s 29-point victory over St. Kilda highlighted just how dangerous the Crows are when Taylor Walker is at his best.
These two sides played out a classic in Round 12 last year, a game the Dockers won by three-points at home. Fremantle find themselves as the serious outsiders this week, a scenario they are 2-5 in against the Crows on the road.
Adelaide have their issues, but the Crows midfield has played exceptionally well in recent weeks dominating the disposal count. Don Pyke’s side are 5-2 as the home favourite against the Dockers, so back the Crows to make it three in a row.
Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.04
We are set for a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster in the AFL this weekend as Geelong host Greater Western Sydney in a massive game for both sides.
The big games continue on Saturday when the West Coast Eagles take on Port Adelaide in a rematch of last year’s thrilling Elimination Final, while high-flying Richmond will be in action against Fremantle on Sunday.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 AFL Round 7 tips can be found below.
Friday 4 May, 7:50pm, GMHBA Stadium
Cats 93-Giants 32
This is an outstanding way to start the round and we are set for a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster!
Geelong capitulated late against Sydney last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as favourites and they will likely be buoyed by the return of Gary Ablett.
The Cats have won only four of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a very poor 1-6 against the line in this scenario.
Their goalkicking continues to be an issue, but the Giants were still able to record a comfortable win over the Brisbane Lions and their only loss so far this season came at the hands of Sydney.
The Giants don’t start many games as underdogs and they don’t have a great record when they do – they have won only one of their past five games as underdogs and their record against the line isn’t any better.
The betting market that does appeal in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting.
Backing the Under in games involving either of these sides has been a profitable play over the past 12 months and the Under has saluted in nine of the past 13 games played at GMHBA Stadium.
Back Under 164.5 Points
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 5 May, 1:45pm, Mars Stadium
Dogs 81-Suns 72
The Western Bulldogs have taken their home game against the Gold Coast Suns to Mars Stadium in Ballarat and they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
The Bulldogs returned to winning form over Carlton last weekend and their record against the Suns is outstanding – they have won the past four games played between the two sides.
They have won five of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 3-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Gold Coast Suns showed some fight in the second half, but they were still no match for the Adelaide Crows last weekend and they continue to struggle against the best teams in the competition.
Gold Coast have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.
This is another game where the real value lies in the Total Points betting market.
The Under has saluted in 14 of the past 22 games played by the Western Bulldogs and has also proven to be a profitable betting play in Suns games over the past 12 months.
Back Under 164.5 Points
Saturday 5 May, 2:10pm, MCG
Dons 67-Hawks 90
The Essendon Football Club are under severe pressure after a pair of poor losses and they will go into this clash as clear underdogs.
A great deal was expected of Essendon heading into this season, but they have not delivered and they were soundly beaten by both Collingwood and Melbourne.
The Bombers have won six of their past 14 games as underdogs for a profit and they are 8-6 against the line in this situation.
Hawthorn returned to winning form with a professional performance against St Kilda and there has been a lot to like about the way that they have played this season to date.
The Hawks have won five of their past seven games as favourites and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
The Under has saluted in 16 of the past 22 games played by Hawthorn and has also been a profitable play in Essendon games over the past 12 months – so I will once again be playing in the Total Points betting market.
Back Under 177.5 Points
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 5 May, 4:35pm, Optus Stadium
Eagles 102 - Port 60
This is one of the biggest games of the weekend and will be an excellent test of exactly where these teams are at.
It has been an excellent start to the season for the West Coast Eagles and they made it five wins on the trot with their thrilling win over Fremantle in the Western Derby.
West Coast will go into this clash as favourites and they have won six of their past nine games as home favourites, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide were famously knocked out of the AFL Finals last season by a late Luke Shuey goal and they will be keen for revenge.
The away team has actually won the past six games played between these two sides and winning in Perth has not been an issue for Port Adelaide.
The Power have won two of their past four games as away underdogs and they are 3-1 against the line in this scenario.
There really is nothing between these two sides and I am keen to back the Power with the insurance of a 4.5 points start.
Back Port Adelaide To Cover The Line (+4.5 Points)
Saturday 5 May, 7:25pm, SCG
Swans 66 - North 68
The Sydney Swans are dominant favourites to account for North Melbourne in this Saturday night clash.
Sydney came from behind to beat Geelong last weekend and their recent record against North Melbourne is excellent – they have won five of the past six games played between these two sides.
The Swans have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in eight of these victories for a clear profit.
North Melbourne may have gone down to Port Adelaide last weekend, but they have still made a strong start to the season and have greatly outperformed pre-season expectations.
The Kangaroos have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that Sydney should be able to win comfortably and the line of 33.5 points will not be enough.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-33.5 Points)
Saturday 5 May, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Crows 125-Blues 70
Adelaide are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend and the line for this clash is a sizeable 55.5 points.
The Crows flew out of the blocks against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend and they didn’t really go on with the job in the second half, but still recorded a comfortable win.
Adelaide have won nine of their past 14 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of those wins, while they have won their past three games against Carlton.
Carlton are still chasing their first win this season and they slumped to their sixth straight defeat with a fairly lacklustre performance against the Western Bulldogs.
The Navy Blues have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this situation and they haven’t been disgraced in their recent meetings against the Crows.
There is no doubt that Adelaide should win this game comfortably, but the line of 55.5 points does seem excessive and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday 6 May, 1:10pm, MCG
TIgers 110-Freo 33
Richmond just keep on winning and it should come as no surprise that the defending Premiers and competition leaders will go into this clash with Fremantle as clear favourites.
Both Melbourne and Collingwood were able to stay in touch with Richmond in the first three quarters, but the relentless pressure applied by the Tigers told late on their rivals and the premiership favourites raced away in the final term.
Richmond have now won 12 games on the trot at the MCG – their all-time record – and they have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle may have lost the Western Derby against the West Coast Eagles, but they were not disgraced and they have been more than competitive in every one of their games so far this season.
The Dockers have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs, but they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
Backing the Under in games involving Richmond has been a highly profitable betting play and the Under has saluted in nine of their past 12 games at the MCG.
This has a low-scoring affair written all over it and this is another game in which I am keen to back the Under.
Back Under 168.5 Points
Sunday 6 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Saints 67-Dees 106
This is the type of game that Melbourne desperately need to win if they are going to be any chance of playing finals in 2018.
Melbourne were able to return to winning form with a strong effort against Essendon and a repeat of that effort would likely be more than enough to account for St Kilda.
Winning as favourites continues to be something of an issue for Melbourne – they have won eight of their past 14 games as the punter’s elect and they are a poor 5-9 against the line when giving away a start.
St Kilda have not won a game since their opening round victory over the Brisbane Lions and poor kicking as well as awful skill errors continues to cost them.
The Saints have won only one of their past 12 games as underdogs and they have covered the line in only three of their past 12 games when receiving a start.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a punting perspective.
Sunday 6 May, 4:40pm, The Gabba
Lions 114-Magpies 121
The Brisbane Lions are still chasing their first win of the season and they will go into this clash with Collingwood as clear underdogs.
Aside from their heavy loss at the hands of Richmond, Brisbane have generally been competitive this season, but they will still need to go to another level to be a genuine chance against Collingwood.
They have won only two of their past seven games as home underdogs and they are a lacklustre 3-4 against the line in that scenario.
Collingwood came up short against Richmond in the final quarter last weekend and they are still a level below the best sides in the competition, but there has still been plenty of positives about their start to the season.
The Magpies have won three of their past four games as away favourites for a clear profit and they have covered the line in each of these wins.
Collingwood can return to winning form and the line of 19.5 points will not be enough.
Back Collingwood To Cover The Line (-19.5 Points)
The 2017 AFL season continues to throw up plenty of upsets and the round six action was full of a number of surprising results.
The Adelaide Crows are the only unbeaten team left in the competition and should continue their winning ways when they face North Melbourne, while Sydney have the chance to score their first win of the year when they host the Brisbane Lions.
We have analysed all the big games this weekend and our AFL Round 7 tips can be found below.
Friday 5 May, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 108 - GWS Giants 85
The GWS Giants overcame the Western Bulldogs in a thriller last Friday night and they are clear favourites to account for St Kilda this weekend.
Greater Western Sydney have now recorded five wins on the trot and there is plenty to suggest that they should be able to continue their winning ways.
The Giants have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites and they have won their past three meetings with St Kilda.
St Kilda produced their best performance of the career to date to record a dominant victory against Hawthorn and they will go into this clash with some confidence.
The Saints have won three of their past six games as home underdogs for a clear profit and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
In saying that, the line for this clash really does not look like enough and if the Giants perform at anywhere near their best they should prove too strong for a St Kilda outfit that is simply not up to their level.
Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)
Saturday 6 May, 1:45pm, Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne 145 - Adelaide Crows 86
North Melbourne recorded their first win of the season against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.
The Adelaide Crows continued their outstanding start to the season with a dominant display against Richmond and they continue to play excellent football.
Adelaide have won eight of their past nine games as away favourites and they are an even more impressive 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne did enough to get the job done against Gold Coast, but they would still need to improve significantly to have any chance whatsoever against the Crows.
The Kangaroos have lost their past six games as home underdogs and they are an only middling 3-3 against the line.
Adelaide should be able to continue on their winning ways and they are good enough to cover the big line of 39.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-39.5 Points)
Saturday 6 May, 2:10pm, MCG
Collingwood 56 - Carlton 79
The rivalry between Collingwood and Carlton is one of the fiercest in the AFL and this should be an interesting – if not high-quality game – between the two sides.
Collingwood produced their best effort of the season to beat Geelong in convincing fashion last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Winning as favourites has proven to be a big issue for Collingwood – they have won just three of their past eight games as the punter’s elect.
Carlton returned to winning form with an upset victory over the Sydney Swans and that is a performance that they are sure to take a fair amount of confidence from.
The Blues have won six of their past 18 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 10-8 against the line in this scenario.
There is never a great deal between these two sides when they square-off at the MCG and the Blues do have a genuine chance of recording another upset win.
Back Carlton To Win @ $3.20
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 6 May, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 87 - West Coast Eagles 97
Port Adelaide head into this clash on the back of two heavy wins and they are clear favourites to make it three wins on the trot.
They may have only beaten Carlton and the Brisbane Lions, but you can’t help but be impressed with the way that Port Adelaide have performed over the past fortnight.
The Power have won four of their past six games as home favourites and more impressively they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
West Coast returned to winning form with a comprehensive effort against Fremantle and this will be a good test to see just where the Eagles are at so far this season.
They have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a profit and it should be noted that the Eagles have won the past two games between these two sides – both of which have been played at the Adelaide Oval.
There is no doubt that Port Adelaide deserve to be favourites, but there is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and West Coast do represent some value at their current price.
Back West Coast To Win @ $3.35
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 6 May, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast Suns 124 - Collingwood 80
There will be plenty of intrigue in this clash as Gary Ablett takes on his old – and potentially future club – Geelong.
Geelong suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Collingwood, but they are clear favourites to bounce back to winning form this weekend.
The Cats have not been the most reliable betting team as away favourites over the past 12 months and they have won seven of their past ten games in this scenario, while they are 5-5 against the line in this situation.
Gold Coast suffered another disappointing loss at the hands of North Melbourne last weekend and they really are a side that don’t inspire a great deal of confidence.
The Suns have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs for a clear loss and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Saturday 6 May, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 80 - Richmond 75
Richmond suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Adelaide last weekend and they face another tough assignment against the Western Bulldogs.
The Tigers received a serious reality check at the hands of the Crows and another heavy defeat would cast a serious shadow over their top four chances.
Richmond have won only four of their past 13 games as away underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs lost no admirers with their narrow defeat at the hands of the Greater Western Sydney Giants and a similar performance would ensure that they are too strong for Richmond.
The Bulldogs have won 12 of their past 15 games as home favourites, but they are only 6-9 against the line in this scenario.
It is tough to find value in this clash, but the Under in the Total Points betting market really does look like excellent value.
The Under has saluted in 25 of the past 44 games played by the Western Bulldogs at the venue and the current line is a big 186.5 points.
Back Under 186.5 Points
Sunday 7 May, 1:10pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 135 - Brisbane Lions 81
What has happened to the Sydney Swans?
Sydney looked like an absolute lock to make the top four at the start of the season, but they are yet to win a game this season and they hit a new low when they went down to Carlton last weekend.
They will still go into this clash with the Brisbane Lions as clear favourites and if they can’t get the job done it is tough to see where their first victory is going to come from.
The Lions have not beaten the Swans since 2009, but the Swans have won only six of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 5-7 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane suffered a very heavy defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide last weekend, but so far this season their best performances have come on the road.
They have only won two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario and they are being given a massive start by the bookies.
Betting against Sydney has been a profitable betting play all season long and I’m taking a gamble on the Lions.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+38.5 Points)
Sunday 7 May, 3:20pm, MCG
Melbourne 91 - Hawthorn 94
This is the first time that Melbourne have started a game with Hawthorn as favourites for some time.
The Demons finally ended their losing run against the Hawks last season and the market suggests that they will be too strong for their rivals once again this season.
Melbourne ended their losing streak with a victory over Essendon last weekend and this is a key game as they attempt to get their season back on tracks.
The Demons have won six of their past nine games as favourites, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario and always a tricky side to trust as the punter’s elect.
Hawthorn regressed spectacularly once again last weekend against St Kilda and they are almost an impossible team to trust from a betting standpoint.
They have now won only two of their past six games as away underdogs over the past 12 months and their record against the line is no better.
This is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of this weekend.
Sunday 7 May, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 116 - Essendon 79
This is set to be another competitive fixture as there really is not a great deal between these two sides.
The Dockers had their winning run ended by the West Coast Eagles, but they will still go into this clash with Essendon as clear favourites.
Fremantle have won their past two games as home favourites and they have been a profitable betting play as the punter’s elect.
Essendon produced a fairly flat performance against Melbourne and they really have struggled for any sort of consistency.
The Bombers have lost their past seven games as away underdogs and they are a very poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle should be able to return to winning form this weekend and they are a nice bet to comfortably cover the line.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points)
This is far from the biggest round of the 2016 AFL season, but there are still a number of exciting contests.
The action begins on Friday night when the struggling Richmond do battle with defending premiers Hawthorn before Geelong host West Coast Eagles at Skilled Stadium in a genuine Saturday afternoon blockbuster.
The Western Bulldogs face the Adelaide Crows in what could be the most exciting game of the weekend, while North Melbourne will have the chance to defend their unbeaten run when they take on St Kilda on Sunday afternoon.
Friday 6 May, 7:50pm, MCG
Richmond 90 - Hawthorn 136
2016 went from bad to worse for Richmond when they suffered their fifth straight loss against Port Adelaide last weekend and they are massive underdogs to beat Hawthorn this weekend.
It is hard to express simply how poor Richmond have been this season and they will go into this game without both Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance.
The Tigers have an excellent record as underdogs over the past 12 months – they have won five of their seven games in this scenario – but they did not go into those games without arguably their two best players.
Hawthorn do not head into this game in winning form following their big loss against the Greater Western Sydney Giants and that is bad news for the Tigers as the Hawks are 6-0 on the back of a loss in the past 12 months.
The Hawks have been a losing betting proposition as favourites in the past 12 months and their record against Richmond in recent years is surprisingly poor, but it is very easy to see the Hawks coming out and absolutely obliterating the hapless Tigers this weekend.
There are a number of different angles to take into consideration for this fixture and I am happy to stay out of it from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 7 May, 1:45pm, MCG
Collingwood 84 - Carlton 99
The old rivalries are set to do battle in what will be a very intriguing fixture at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
They have played ugly football in doing it, but Carlton go into this game with back-to-back wins on their record after beating Fremantle and Essendon in a pair of very dour contests.
Carlton will still go into this game as clear underdogs and they have won just 3 of their past 20 games in this scenario, while they are 10-10 against the line.
Collingwood gave up very quickly against West Coast last weekend, but they will take confidence from the fact that they have won their past six games against Collingwood.
The Magpies have struggled as favourites in the past 12 months and they are a particularly poor 4-9 against the line as the punter’s elect.
The Blues have shown a toughness, which has been missing from their football for several seasons, in recent weeks and I am keen to back them with a start of 21.5 points in what I believe will be a scrappy affair.
Recommended Bet: Carlton To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 7 May, 2:10pm, Skilled Stadium
Geelong 123 - West Coast Eagles 79
Geelong have an excellent record against the West Coast Eagles at Skilled Stadium and they have not lost to their rivals in front of their home fans since 2006.
The Cats continue to fly under the radar somewhat, but they have now strung together four victories on the trot and they were absolutely ruthless against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend.
Geelong will start this game as clear favourites and they are 6-2 at Skilled Stadium in this scenario, while they are 5-3 against the line.
West Coast rebounded from their disappointing loss against Sydney with a typically strong win over Collingwood, but they face a much tougher challenge this weekend.
The Eagles have something of a reputation as flat-track bullies that generally only win when they are favourites, but West Coast are 4-3 as underdogs in the past 12 months and that record improves to 3-1 when they are away from home.
I am still of the opinion that West Coast are the second best side in the AFL behind Hawthorn and the $2.65 currently on offer stands out as one of the best bets of the round.
Recommended Bet: Back West Coast Eagles To Win @ $2.65
Saturday 7 May, 4:35pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 135 - Essendon 54
The Sydney Swans are the shortest-priced favourites to date this season and go into this game at $1.01 to record their third win on the trot after surviving a scare against Brisbane last weekend.
There is very little doubt that the Swans will win this game, but the real betting interest will be whether they can cover the line of 65.5 points.
The Swans are 6-5 against the line as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they are 2-2 since 2012 when giving away a start of over 65 points.
Essendon were far from impressive against Carlton last weekend, but they were still able to stay in the game for a long way.
This is obviously a much stiffer challenge and it is tough to take confidence from the fact that the Bombers are 4-8 against the line as away underdogs.
This looks like a trap game and I am happy to go back to my rule of not betting on any games that involve the Bombers.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 7 May, 5:10pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast 87 - Melbourne 160
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and at this stage the market is unable to split the two sides.
The Gold Coast Suns made a very promising start to the season, but they head into this game on the back of three straight defeats and they were disgraceful against Geelong last weekend.
The Suns have won just four of their past 12 games at Metricon Stadium, while they are a poor 3-1-11 on the back of a loss in the past 12 months.
Melbourne missed out on an opportunity to record a rare hat-trick of wins when they went down to St Kilda last weekend, but they are still playing a promising brand of football this season.
They have won just three of their past 11 games away from home, but you would actually have made a profit backing the Demons in each of their away games and you could argue that they prefer to be away from the pressure that they receive at the MCG.
As the market suggests it is very tough to split these two sides, but I think the Demons actually have the most upside going forward and can return to winning form this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Demons To Win @ $1.90
Saturday 7 May, 7:40pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 123 - Adelaide Crows 108
The Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows met in a thrilling Elimination Final last season and this could prove to be the match of the round.
This is another game in which the market is unable to split the two teams and both teams have played some excellent football during this season to date.
The Western Bulldogs were unable to beat North Melbourne last weekend and this could be evidence that they have started to feel the effects of their injury crisis, but their record at Etihad Stadium is a big positive and they have won nine of their 13 home fixtures in the past 12 months.
Adelaide were not particularly impressive against Fremantle last weekend, but they were still able to get the job done.
Their record away from Adelaide Oval is only a middling 7-7, but they have won seven of their past 12 games at Etihad Stadium.
I think that the Western Bulldogs can bounce back this weekend – they are 6-3 on the back of a loss – and prove too good for a Crows side that is due for a poor performance.
Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Win @ $1.90
Saturday 7 May, 6:10pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 77 - Greater Western Sydney Giants 95
The Greater Western Sydney Giants are one of the form teams in the competition and they go into this clash on the back of a franchise-best performance against Hawthorn last weekend.
The Giants were absolutely ruthless on both sides of the football and they are dominant favourites to beat the hapless Fremantle Dockers.
Greater Western Sydney are a middling 3-3 against the line as away favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
This will be just the second time in the past 12 months that Fremantle have started a game at Domain Stadium as underdogs, but they did lose that fixtures and they have beaten the line in just two of their past nine games as underdogs.
This is a side that has already given up on this season and if the Greater Western Sydney Giants are serious about playing finals football in 2016 they should be able to cover the line of 21.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back Greater Western Sydney Giants To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)
Sunday 8 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 75 - North Melbourne 82
North Melbourne continue to ride high on top of the AFL ladder and they are clear favourites to continue their unbeaten start to the season.
The Kangaroos were able to tough it out against the Western Bulldogs to claim their sixth straight victory last weekend and they have found a new confidence that has been missing from the side for a number of seasons.
They have proven to be a very safe bet as favourites and have won 15 of their past 17 games in this scenario, while they are 11-6 against the line when giving their opposition a start.
St Kilda were excellent against Melbourne last weekend, but stringing together repeat performances of this quality has been difficult for the Saints and they are 0-6 on the back of a win in the past year.
They have proven an non-profitable betting proposition as underdogs over the same time frame and they are 9-12 against the line when being given a start.
The Kangaroos will be too good for St Kilda and there is plenty of data to suggest that they will cover the line of 22.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-22.5 Points)
Sunday 8 May, 4:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 136 - Brisbane Lions 59
Port Adelaide return to the Adelaide Oval following a smart performance against Richmond last weekend and they have a great chance to record back-to-back victories.
The Power’s woes this season have been well documented and despite returning to the winner’s circle last weekend they continue to be a disappointing betting side.
Port Adelaide have beaten the line in just 6 of their past 17 games as favourites and they are 4-7 as the punter’s elect in front of their home fans at the Adelaide Oval.
The Brisbane Lions gave the Sydney Swans a scare last weekend and they have played some decent football in the past months, but their record away from The Gabba in the past 12 months has been horrendous.
They have won just one of their past 12 games away from home and their record against the line is a truly horrendous 3-9 as away underdogs.
It is tough to have any faith in either of these teams from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this fixture.
Recommended Bet: No Bet