While the Super Bowl remains as the biggest sporting event on the American calendar, it is hard to top the Conference Championships when it comes to pure on-field excitement.
Played at the home stadiums of the highest ranked seeds in each conference, the atmosphere is infinitely more charged than at the neutral site Super Bowl and this weekend’s venues will provide an extra boost to two fascinating matchups.
Philadelphia’s rabid fanbase will be at full voice as they try to put an end to the Washington Commanders fairytale run, with the added motivation of eliminating a division rival.
Meanwhile Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs and every AFC Championship from the 2018-2023 seasons, is one of the noisiest venues in the league and the Buffalo Bills will face numerous on and off field obstacles as they try to defeat the defending champion Chiefs.
Find our full breakdown for the penultimate set of games in the 2024 NFL season with our preview below.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Monday 27 January, 7:00am, Lincoln Financial Field
Take your pick on the most intriguing storyline in the NFC Championship Game first up Monday morning.
It’s hard to go past the Cinderella story of the Washington Commanders, lead by rookie phenom Jayden Daniels and the huge turnaround 18 months after Josh Harris bought the team from the reviled Dan Snyder.
Philadelphia is trying to get back to its second Super Bowl in three years having joined the large club of teams that suffered heartbreaking losses in a big game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
This time though, they have a superstar running back as the feature of their offence as Saquon Barkley has been borderline unstoppable since Week 1, which has lead to one of the biggest player yardage lines in recent memory.
However it is not all sunshine and roses with Jalen Hurts dealing with a knee injury, which will put even more pressure on Barkley and the offensive line to keep things moving.
Oh and to top it all off, these are division rivals that split their season series with Hurts suffering a concussion back in Week 16 as Washington just scraped past the Eagles lead by backup Kenny Pickett.
Washington’s storyline is nothing short of phenomenal, and they will be back at this stage in future years but Philadelphia just looks like the more complete team top to bottom and that defence might be able to cause more problems for Daniels than Tampa or Detroit could.
It won’t be a blowout, but the Eagles look well placed to advance to another Super Bowl.
However they will have to do it the hard way with a passing game that cannot get going, but that just means its time to load up on the Barkley markets regardless of how high they get.
Philadelphia to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
SGM: Saquon Barkley Over 126.5 Rushing Yards & Anytime Touchdown @ $2.52
Saquon Barkley to Score 2+ Touchdowns @ $3.80
Jayden Daniels 2+ Touchdown Passes @ $1.90
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
Monday 27 January, 10:40am, Arrowhead Stadium
The 2000’s in the AFC were headlined by the rivalry between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts with the young duo of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
The early part of the 2010’s were marked by the battles between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, lead by the older duo of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
If there was any doubt it will be evident that the 2020’s are for the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen the headline acts.
2020 saw the Chiefs eliminate the Bills in the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium, 12 months later they did the same thing in the Divisional Round and in the 2023 season, Kansas City went to Buffalo and ended their season once again.
If there was ever a season for the Bills to break that trend though, this might be it.
When the teams faced off in Week 11, Buffalo won 30-21 and it was the MVP frontrunner Allen making the pivotal play in the fourth quarter to end the contest.
But this is Kansas City and they just keep finding (occasionally controversial) ways to win and frustrating the general public.
11 of their 15 wins in the regular season were by eight points or less and there were no shortage of fortunate breaks in their favour.
Meanwhile, Buffalo steamrolled most of their opponents on the back of Josh Allen turning into Superman while playing the best football of his career having finally cut down on the critical mistakes.
They scored 30 or more points in 12 games during the season and they have put up 58 across their two playoff games to date.
If not now, then when?
All signs point towards this being the Bills game to lose… but it’s Kansas City at home, in the playoffs, they just don’t lose these games.
Kansas City to Win @ $1.75
SGM: Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown @ $3.10
SGM: Josh Allen 225+ Passing Yards & 2+ Touchdown Passes @ $2.74
SGM: Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards & Anytime Touchdown @ $3.27
2023
While the Super Bowl is considered the pinnacle of modern American sport, the Conference Championship games tend to produce better contests with the scale still kind of resembling a normal game.
That will not stop nerves coming into play though, every player on the four remaining teams knows a spot in Super Bowl LVIII is on at stake when they take to the field but the playoffs have delivered two great games for us on Monday morning.
First up is the AFC Championship in Baltimore as the Ravens face the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle between a pair of MVP quarterbacks.
Then out in the Bay Area, the San Francisco 49ers will take on the role of the hunter that shoots Bambi’s mother, as they seek to end the fairytale run of the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship.
We’ve got our previews and best bets for both games below so read on for the breakdowns and tips for the NFL’s Conference Championship Games.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
Monday 29 January, 6:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore 10 – Kansas City 17
For the first time in their 28-year franchise history, the Ravens are hosting the AFC Championship and this will be the first conference/league title game in the city of Baltimore since the Colts hosted the Giants in December 1959.
Quite a lot has changed for Baltimore since their last appearance in this game 11 years ago but the coach and “take no prisoners” attitude remains a hallmark of this team.
They will need to be at their best to knock off the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs who are coming off a dramatic win in Buffalo last week.
Any time you want to back against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs it is a massive risk given his ability to create magic out of nothing but Baltimore and their MVP quarterback combined with the top ranked defence is enough of a reason to have some faith in the home team.
The one thing the Ravens cannot afford is a slow start like they had to endure against Houston last week as playing with a lead (or at least within one score) allows them to stay balanced.
Chances are this game is going down to the wire and at home with that defence, I’ll take the Ravens to hold on and advance to the Super Bowl.
As for the player markets, in a game loaded with superstar talent there is no shortage of players to back.
Lamar Jackson is as much of an x-factor as anyone in the league and his ability to switch between dangerous rusher and big play passer makes him a nightmare to handle even for the best defences.
To stay in this game he needs to do it all and I’ll be backing him to have a big day doing it all as he shoulders the load for the Ravens offence once again.
On the Chiefs side, as tempting as it is to back some Mahomes, I’m going to ride with Isiah Pacheco as the Ravens have been slightly more vulnerable on the ground and their main goal will be slowing down Mahomes.
With an inconsistent passing game all season, Mahomes and coach Andy Reid might opt to run the ball a bit more just to keep them honest.
But for the final play I’m going to land on the touchdown combination market, pairing up the tight ends and Gus Edwards to have at least two scores.
At this time of year a tight end is a quarterback’s best friend in the red zone and we know Baltimore have no problems pounding it in from short range.
Baltimore to Win by 1-13 @ $2.40
SGM: Lamar Jackson 200+ Pass Yards, 2+ Pass TDs, Over 65.5 Rush Yards & Anytime TD @ $7.12
SGM: Isiah Pacheco 70+ Rushing Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $3.37
Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce to Have 2+ Touchdowns Combined @ $2.15
San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions
Monday 29 January, 9:40am, Levi’s Stadium
San Francisco 34 – Detroit 31
If Detroit is going to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, they are going to have to do it the hard way as they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara.
Kyle Shanahan’s team has been the one of, if not the consensus best teams in the league all season and plenty of players on this roster were part of the team that fell at the final hurdle in the 2019 season.
They are in the final four for the fourth time in five seasons and head into this game as justifiable short priced favourites.
But the story of the Lions, combined with the fact they have the pieces to cause the 49ers problems means there is a case for the upset.
Detroit’s quick strike offence means they can get out to an early lead and negate the ground game of San Francisco, while freeing up Aidan Hutchinson and company to get after Brock Purdy when he drops back to pass.
All of that is great in theory but the chances of it playing out perfectly for Detroit are slim to none, even with San Francisco potentially playing without Deebo Samuel.
They still have Christian McCaffrey to get the ball to and with a week to prepare, Shanahan will be able to find ways to utilise George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk a bit more effectively.
Combine that with the likes of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw on defence and the 49ers just seem like they are going to have too much talent to lose this game.
While the fun part of the story would see the Lions win and advance on to Las Vegas in a fortnight, the far more likely scenario is the stage gets the better of them and they get their doors blown off.
McCaffrey is key to the 49ers success and there is value to be had backing him for one of those all-time performances, the less San Francisco needs Purdy to do the better and their best path to victory is getting the ball in the hands of their best player.
As for other value bets two touchdown scorers leap off the page, starting with Detroit’s rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, while San Francisco’s opportunistic defence is a great chance of taking one back to the house if they have the opportunity.
San Francisco to Win by 14+ @ $2.75
SGM: Christian McCaffrey 100+ Rushing Yards, 30+ Receiving Yards & 2+ TDs @ $5.43
Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown @ $2.45
San Francisco D/ST Anytime Touchdown @ $5.50
2022
We’re all set for a massive Monday of Conference Championship action from the National Football League!
All four remaining teams know they are two wins away from lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy and all know that one bad performance will send them on an earlier than expected holiday.
It gets underway with the two best teams in the NFC facing off in Philadelphia as the Eagles take on the 49ers.
Following that the AFC Championship is a repeat of the game we saw 12 months ago, however this time the Bengals are not the upstart challengers and the Chiefs are massively concerned over the right ankle of Patrick Mahomes.
We’ve run through both upcoming games below and found our best bets, read on and see who we are backing.
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
Monday 30 January, 7:00am, Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia 31 – San Francisco 7
The two best teams in the NFC this season face off for the George Halas Trophy and it looks like we might be in for a defensive struggle.
Between them they allowed a combined 19 points in the Divisional Playoffs and with major question marks surrounding both quarterbacks, we could see them teeing off.
Jalen Hurts made a strong return from injury but there was a clear desire to avoid taking a big hit and a bit of hesitancy surrounding his shoulder.
Getting that game under his belt would have been good for his confidence, but you can guarantee his tentativeness would have been noted by the San Francisco front seven.
On the other side, we all know the Brock Purdy story and how great the rookie is performing relative to expectations, but Dallas made life really tough on him and the Eagles defence is well positioned to do the same.
For the first play in this game, the under looks to be the way to go with 20 points likely enough to record a win.
Purdy had several passes that could have been picked off in both playoff games and at some point that good fortune has to run out.
Even with the plethora of pass catchers to target, he is going to have a very hard time getting the ball out to them if he is running for his life.
Should the Eagles find a way to take an early lead and force the 49ers to play catch up, it will make life even tougher on the visitors.
With the crowd at their backs and a line of less than a field goal, the Eagles just look like they have enough to see off a talented opponent.
It will then come down to the arm of Jalen Hurts, as the few teams that have found success against the 49ers have done so by throwing the ball.
On the big stage, Hurts should be able to move the ball by getting it in the hands of the likes of AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
We’ll back him to have a productive day through the air as he takes over the game.
For our 49ers player bet, there’s a bit of an injury cloud over Christian McCaffrey which suggests we might see a bit more of Elijah Mitchell.
He’s tallied over 50 yards on the ground alone in four of his last six games so take a flyer on him to be the primary option at a price, especially when McCaffrey’s totals in the same market are double that.
Back Under 46 Points @ $1.90
Back Philadelphia to Cover -2.5 @ $1.87
SGM: Jalen Hurts 225+ Passing Yards & 2+ Passing TDs @ $2.40
Back Elijah Mitchell 50+ Total Rushing & Receiving Yards @ $2.50
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
Monday 30 January, 10:40am, Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City 23 – Cincinnati 20
Just like it was at the end of the 2021 NFL season, Kansas City will host Cincinnati for the Lamar Hunt Trophy.
Remarkably, it will be the fifth straight AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium, however it may be the first time the Chiefs will go into a game like this as an underdog.
That comes down to the fact nobody knows exactly what to expect from Patrick Mahomes and the most closely watched ankle in the NFL since Rob Gronkowski before Super Bowl XLVI.
Common sense dictates that when a 150kg person falls on your leg, it is going to hurt for more than a couple of days, which will limit Mahomes’ effectiveness in this game.
His entire career has been highlighted by a bunch of plays when he escapes the pocket, dodges a couple of would be tacklers and flings the ball 50 yards to a pass catcher only he knew would be open.
Against Jacksonville he could not push off that ankle after it was injured and if there is any limitations here, the Cincinnati pass rush can cause plenty of problems for him.
That’s why the Bengals have shifted into favouritism and that’s why they are going to be the opening play for the AFC Championship Game.
In three career games against the Chiefs, Joe Burrow has averaged 327 yards per game and almost three touchdown passes as well.
To do that, he has relied on his favourite target Ja’Marr Chase and we’ll combine the two for a Same Game Multi.
However, it won’t all come down to Burrow, the Bengals will need to find a way to stay balanced and Joe Mixon will be a big reason they keep the ball away from Mahomes and company.
He is coming off a very productive day against Buffalo and we are going to back him to keep his momentum going against a Chiefs defence that is not the most effective against the run.
But this won’t all be one way traffic, with Travis Kelce seemingly an unstoppable force no matter who is throwing him the ball.
After his mammoth effort to drag the Chiefs home against the Jaguars, we have to also have a little play on him to produce against the Bengals.
Back Cincinnati to Win @ $1.80
SGM: Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards, JaMarr Chase 75+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $2.73
SGM: Joe Mixon 60+ Rushing Yards & Anytime TD @ $3.08
SGM: Travis Kelce 75+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $2.85
2021
Just 60 minutes sits between the four remaining teams in the NFL Playoffs and a spot in Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles.
The two NFL Conference Championship games on Monday morning (AEST) have served up a plethora of storylines to follow, not only in the games themselves, but the potential Super Bowl matchups they could serve up.
Both games are rematches of late season contests, with the Bengals denying the Chiefs the top seed in the AFC with a Week 17 win, while the 49ers defeated their division rival, the Rams, in this same stadium in Week 18 to book their spot in the playoffs.
Three of the four teams competing have been to at least one Super Bowl in the last three years, while Cincinnati is chasing its first appearance in the big game since the 1988 season.
It’s all to play for this Monday and we’re previewing both games below so read on and see who we are backing.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
Monday 31 January, 7:00am, Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City 24 – Cincinnati 27 (OT)
For the fourth straight season, Arrowhead Stadium in western Missouri will be the destination for the AFC Championship and the hometown Chiefs will be chasing their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
It’s tough to back against them after their miraculous win over Buffalo last week where Patrick Mahomes proved once again he is the most gifted quarterback in the NFL at the moment.
However there are some major questions surrounding the Chiefs defensively, and coming to town is a Cincinnati side that will be full of confidence.
When these teams met in Ohio earlier this month, the Bengals won 34-31 despite the best efforts of their coach Zac Taylor to throw the game away on the final possession.
In that game rookie Ja’Marr Chase posted a season high 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 11 catches as he torched a Chiefs secondary that has become even weaker since then.
It’s all pointing towards another Kansas City shootout, and if the Bengals defence can make a few stops in crucial moments, they might just have a chance of springing an upset.
The only outcome you can cross off is a Cincinnati blowout victory because with that offence, Kansas City will never be out of it.
For the first two betting plays, I’ll take the Chiefs in a close one as well as repeating a winner from last week’s Chiefs game, dipping into the alternate total markets and backing 60 or more points.
Similarly, both quarterbacks will be in for big days so I’ll bundle up some overs from their respective markets and back that.
Finally, those passes will have to go somewhere and I’ll back a pair of favourite pass catchers to have a big day as well.
Back Kansas City to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
Back Over 59.5 Points @ $2.45
SGM: Joe Burrow Over 287.5 Pass Yards & 3+ Pass TDs, Patrick Mahomes Over 288.5 Pass Yards & 3+ TDs @ $12.18
SGM: Travis Kelce Over 73.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.56
SGM: Ja’Marr Chase Over 82.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.83
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Monday 31 January, 10:40am, SoFi Stadium
LA Rams 20 – San Francisco 17
For the third time this season, the LA Rams and San Francisco 49ers will face off with both teams hoping to return to SoFi Stadium in a fortnight’s time for Super Bowl LVI.
Both coaches will also be looking for redemption after each losing a Super Bowl in the last three years.
San Francisco dominated the regular season series, suffocating the Rams in Week 10 winning 31-10 before rallying from a 17-3 deficit to come away with a win in Week 18.
Sweeping a divisional rival in a regular season is tough, defeating one three times is insanely tough and for that reason, I’m leaning Los Angeles in this game.
Both teams have plenty of talent on their rosters but the Rams have the difference makers, especially up front, to play this game on their terms.
Matthew Stafford had his playoff moment last week, rallying his offence after giving up a late lead and putting them in position to kick the game winning field goal in Tampa Bay.
Conversely, there are still major questions over whether or not Kyle Shanahan actually trusts his quarterback and will try and control the game with the run, which LA should be able to shut down.
I’ll take the Rams to win this one with their star studded defence and chief playmaker Cooper Kupp doing just enough to get them home in a low scoring contest.
Back the LA Rams to Cover -3.5 @ $1.94
Back Under 45.5 Points @ $1.90
SGM: Cooper Kupp Over 103.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.57
2020
A trip to Super Bowl LV is on the line this week as the Packers, Bucs, Chiefs and Bills all look to punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
History could be made nice and early on Monday morning as Tom Brady looks to book his 10th trip to the Super Bowl, but the Bucs won’t find it easy against a red-hot Packers team led by soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers.
The Bills are also looking to return to the big dance for the first time since 1993 with an upset win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The health of Patrick Mahomes has cast plenty of uncertainty over the AFC title game and there is great value on offer head-to-head.
Nothing beats the drama of Conference Championship weekend, and you can find our tips for both games right here!
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 25 January, 7:05am, Lambeau Field
A battle between two future Hall of Famers will decide a trip to this year’s Super Bowl.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have met only three times in the past, but this fourth chapter shapes up to be the most memorable with a high chance of snow forecast at Lambeau Field on Monday.
Brady currently owns a 2-1 advantage over Rodgers after the Bucs manhandled the Packers 38-13 back in Week 6.
This will mark the first postseason meeting between the two gunslingers, and based on each team’s performance last week, it should be an absolute treat.
The Packers were simply flawless last week in their win against the Rams as Matt LaFleur called a masterpiece from the sidelines.
Green Bay’s playcalling kept a very good Rams defence guessing, while the offensive line did a phenomenal job buying Rodgers a ton of time in the pocket to find the likes of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.
The Bucs didn’t win quite so easily against the Saints, but there was plenty to like about another vintage performance from Brady and a huge three-interception day from the defence.
Speaking of turnovers, the Bucs were one of the few teams to stifle the Packers when they picked off Rodgers twice earlier in the year.
Tampa Bay will need a similar effort on the road this time, but it does look a big ask after the way Green Bay took care of a top-rank Rams D last week.
Defence aside, it goes without saying that these two sides are capable of scoring a huge number of points in a hurry.
The total went over in nine of Green Bay’s 16 games during the regular season, and if there is one team that can match this high-scoring offence, it’s Tampa Bay.
The conditions here could make life difficult for the Bucs, especially when you consider they’ve lost 15 of their last 16 trips to Lambeau.
Overall, you’d be foolish to back against either one of these quarterbacks, so the safest play might be a high-scoring shootout.
Tip: Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
Monday 25 January, 10:30am, Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs have opened the short-priced favourites to return to the Super Bowl when they host the Bills, but betting remains complicated following Patrick Mahomes’ concussion last week in the win over the Browns.
Last year’s Super Bowl MVP left the game early in the fourth quarter and his status remains largely unknown at time of publish.
If Mahomes plays, the Chiefs are rightful favourites against this red-hot Bills team, but if he is forced to sit due to the concussion protocol, it wouldn’t be surprising to find Buffalo firming into favouritism.
With or without Mahomes, the Bills are still a chance in this game, though.
After so much talk about the offence all season, last week’s 17-3 win over the Ravens was another firm reminder of how deadly Buffalo’s defence can be.
The Bills held Lamar Jackson to just 162 yards through the air, while they also came up with two huge stops on fourth down.
Replicating those numbers against the Chiefs will be tough, but it will certainly be a lot easier if Mahomes is taken out of the equation.
Obviously, there are a lot of “what ifs” at play here, but I’d feel confident in backing the Bills to cover even if Mahomes suits up.
As the road underdog, Buffalo has been an outstanding betting play over the last two years covering in five of their eight games against the spread, while they’ve also been the No. 1 team to bet on at the line this season.
Most people had Buffalo pegged as the one team that could keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard and there’s absolutely nothing stopping them for at least keeping this game close.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
2019
Four teams, one goal.
Super Bowl LIV is right around the corner, but not before we learn which two teams are headed to Miami on Monday morning.
First up, it’s an unexpected Chiefs-Titans showdown for the AFC Championship at Arrowhead. Kansas City returns with revenge on their mind after coming up short to the Patriots last year, while the Titans have been the surprise packets of the playoffs led by Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill.
In the NFC, the Niners and the Packers do battle from San Francisco in their first playoff tilt since 2014. These two teams have arguably been the best in the conference all season, setting up what should be a thrilling rematch of Week 12’s blowout.
The Conference Championships are always tough to pick, but with a couple of generous lines on offer, there is plenty of value to be found in our 2020 NFL Conference Championships Preview below.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans
Monday 20 January, 7:05am, Arrowhead Stadium
One of the most unlikely AFC Championship scenarios became a reality last week as the Titans pulled off a season-defining upset over the Ravens in Baltimore.
Tennessee was laying +10 against the previous Super Bowl favourites, and not surprisingly, Mike Vrabel’s team finds itself sporting a similar +7.5 spread this time around at Arrowhead.
Chiefs bettors will be hoping Kansas City can come good on their 5-3-1 record as the home favourite this week and win by more than a touchdown. Last week those same bettors rode the highs and lows after the Chiefs fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter, right before scoring six straight touchdowns to go on and win 51-31.
Often you can get a pretty good feel about a game based on trends, but this time of year normally calls for more detailed analysis.
Firstly, you don’t have to be a genius to work out that this all boils down to Derrick Henry vs the Kansas City defence.
If you’ve caught a glimpse of Henry over the last two weeks, you might already know who’s winning the battle. Henry has rushed for over 180-yards in both playoff games so far – which need we remind you, came against two of the league’s best rushing defences.
Torching the Patriots and Ravens is a good form guide as to how Henry should perform this weekend. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked sixth in rushing yards allowed, and it’s also worth noting Henry has averaged 7.69 yards per-carry in just two games against Kansas City.
Secondly, these two sides are complete opposites. You wouldn’t know it judging by last week, but Tennessee has scored only five touchdowns in the first half this season, compared to the 18 they’ve scored in the second.
Compare to that to the Chiefs defensively, and it spells trouble for the home side. Kansas City has allowed 21 touchdowns in the second half this year, meaning this goes well beyond what Patrick Mahomes might be capable of doing against the Tennessee defence.
Overall, it’s likely the same old problem costs the Chiefs for the second year in a row: run defence.
Tennessee has also won four of their last five games against the Chiefs to go with a 4-2 record against the spread as the away underdog, so any way you look at it, take this generous +7.5 line and run.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.88
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Monday 20 January, 10:40am, Levi's Stadium
For the 49ers, a trip back to the Super Bowl to pick up where they left off in 2012.
For the Packers, a chance for Matt LaFleur to cement his legacy as one of the most successful first-year head coaches in NFL history.
The storylines are endless in this game. Aaron Rodgers against the team that passed on him in the draft, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine against his former Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan… the list goes on.
Perhaps the only storyline worth paying attention to though came in Week 12 when these two teams last met in Santa Clara.
The 49ers won that day rather easily by a score of 37-8. San Francisco’s pass rush dominated Green Bay’s front-line sacking Rodgers five times, leaving the Packers with only 198 yards of total offence and just one third down conversion.
There’s no denying Green Bay’s first season under LaFleur has been a success, but in what has also been a fairly underwhelming year in terms of chemistry on the field, can the new man in charge really find an answer to the Niners’ defence?
Minnesota, or more importantly, Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook, found out the hard way last week just how fierce San Francisco can be on the ground. The Vikings finished with two turnovers and only 21 rushing yards, resulting in a fairly convincing 27-10 blowout loss.
The Packers don’t need to be fantastic when it comes to stopping the Niners’ pass rush though, they simply need to limit the damage enough to get the ball in Aaron Jones’ hands and give Rodgers enough time to find Davante Adams down field.
Therefore, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to find the Packers put up some points in the first half when they are fresh. If you’ve watched Green Bay at all this season, you’ll know most of their games have been a story of two halves – as seen last week against the Seahawks after leading 21-3 at half time.
San Francisco is beatable, and there is also a case to be made for Green Bay’s pass rush against a very inexperienced Jimmy Garoppolo. Unfortunately, the Packers looked gassed in the second half last week against Seattle, and after failing to play a consistent four quarters all year, it’s likely we see Green Bay fade away as this game goes on.
Tip: SGM – Packers to Win the 1st Half & San Francisco 49ers to Win @ $4.76
2019
For the winners, a trip to the Super Bowl. For the losers, better luck next year.
Eight teams boiled down to four last week as we now prepare for two glorious Conference Title games. It’s a battle between the old and the new in both the AFC and the NFC, but since there can be only one winner, who should you be backing to advance to the dance?
We’ve previewed all the stats, match ups and trends that matter, and our complete 2019 NFL Conference Championships Preview can be found below.
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams
Monday 21 January, 7:00am, Mercedes Benz Superdome
New Orleans 23 – LA Rams 26
It’s only fitting the NFC Championship Game has boiled down to the only two 13-win teams from the regular season.
The Rams earned a trip to their first Conference title game since 2001 following a pretty convincing 30-22 win over the Cowboys at home last week, highlighted by a 273-yard rushing performance – the most in team history.
For New Orleans, things weren’t quite so clear cut in a 20-14 win over last year’s Super Bowl champs, but the Saints accomplished a minor milestone themselves – their 14-point comeback over the Eagles was the largest in franchise history.
We’re now left with two fairly evenly matched sides, both of which can torch the scoreboard at a moments notice. When these two sides met earlier in November, it was the Saints walking away with a 45-35 home win, but you’d be foolish to read too much into Week 9’s result.
Things have changed a lot since then, particularly for the Rams. Running back Todd Gurley is by far the most dangerous man on the field, and when you throw in the likes of C.J. Anderson, suddenly Los Angeles become an entirely different beast.
You have to take note of what the Rams did last week to the Cowboys to fully understand, though. Dallas had allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the league entering the Divisional Round, but somehow allowed both Gurley and Anderson to combine for 238-yards and a whopping trio of touchdowns.
So how do the Saints fare against the run?
This is where it gets interesting. New Orleans allowed the second-fewest rushing yards during the regular season. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen dialed up the pressure on Nick Foles last week, but he also managed to hold the Eagles to just 49-rushing yards in the win.
Of course, there’s a lot more to this game than just running the ball, and that’s where the Saints have the edge. Even after a rocky first quarter start last week, Drew Brees hooked up with Michael Thomas for 171-yards and a score on just 12 receptions.
It’s the little things that should see the Saints over the line this week however, and that all starts under the headset. Head coach Sean Payton entered half time down 14-10 against Philly, knowing full well that he needed running back Alvin Kamara to involve himself in the passing game. Lo and behold, the 24-year-old finished with 104 scrimmage yards and some crucial first down plays.
The man on the opposite side of the field knows a thing or two about creativity, but this is a huge test for Sean McVay in a tough road venue, something the Rams haven’t seen since Week 16.
Tip: Back the Saints 7-12 @ $5.00
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
Monday 21 January, 10:30am, Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City 31 – New England 37
The Patriots knew a trip to Arrowhead to face Kansas City was coming, so how will they respond?
If we learned anything from last week’s 41-28 demolition over the Chargers, it’s to never doubt New England ever again. For all the talk surrounding Tom Brady’s last swansong and the lack of receivers, the Patriots still managed to throw for 343-yards and hold LA to just 19 on the ground.
A road trip to Kansas City is an entirely different ball game however, and as New England’s 3-5 record on the road suggests, the Patriots are the rightful underdog. Kansas City destroyed the Colts 31-13 at home last week in a fairly typical Patrick Mahomes performance, but the standout was the defence limiting Andrew Luck to just 203-yards through the air.
As for New England’s struggles on the road, the more said, the better. The Patriots allowed 192 total points away from home during the regular season, but as far as their own offence goes, New England’s red zone touchdown percentage ranked 26th in the league in away games.
The stats also don’t lie when it comes to the Chiefs’ secondary – they allowed the second-most passing yards and the second-most completions this season. You simply can’t look past what they did last week against a stellar offensive line like Indianapolis’ though, especially considering they allowed just one offensive touchdown all game.
On the other hand, the Chiefs defence has shown a tendency to leave the door open for their opponents. A shootout against Tom Brady is never a great idea, but you do have to rewind a little while to find the future Hall of Famers last stellar game-winning drive on the road.
Against the Steelers in Week 15, Brady overthrew a bunch of receivers in a 17-10 loss in Pittsburgh. And against the Titans in Week 10, Brady was pressured up the middle all day, taking three sacks and throwing for just 254-yards in a blowout loss. Get the idea?
Mahomes has already established himself in the two-minute drill, so you know he’s up for a nail-biter. Throw in the fact the Chiefs blew out the Patriots 41-14 last time New England visited Arrowhead, and we could see Kansas City through to their first Super Bowl since 1969.
Tip: Back the Chiefs to Cover The Line (-3 Points) @ $1.87
2018
We were treated to a simply outstanding weekend of football and there are now only four teams left in the race for Super Bowl 52.
The New England Patriots comfortably beat the Tennessee Titans, but there was drama in the three other games and that leaves us with two fascinating Conference Championship games.
Can the Patriots qualify for yet another Super Bowl or will the Jacksonville Jaguars fairytale continue? Will the Minnesota Vikings become the first team to play in a Super Bowl as host or can Philadelphia give themselves the chance to claim a maiden Super Bowl victory?
We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 NFL Conference Championships tips can be found below.
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 22 January, 7.05am, Gillette Stadium
The New England Patriots have qualified for the AFC Conference Championship for the sixth season in a row and it should come as no surprise that they are clear favourites to move one game away from their sixth Super Bowl win of the Bill Belichick era.
New England were always in control of their meeting with the Tennessee Titans and this is a side that simply have so much experience on the big occasion.
Tom Brady is far and away the best quarterback left in the competition this season and he will be challenged by the outstanding Jacksonville Jaguars defence, but the gap he has over Jags quarterback Blake Bortles is enormous.
New England have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they have covered the line in 14 of their past 19 games.
Jacksonville were uninspiring in the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs, but they were simply outstanding against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Jaguars led 21-0 in the first half and they did wobble a touch late, but they were able to maintain their composure to return to the Conference Championship for the first time since 1999.
This is an enormous challenge for the Jaguars and they have lost their past seven games against the Patriots.
In saying that, winning away from home has not been an issue for the Jaguars this season and they have won three of their past four games as away underdogs.
The Jacksonville defence will give the Patriots plenty of trouble and New England won’t have things their own way, but the Patriots are just too experienced on the big stage and their class will prevail when it really matters in this clash.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings
Monday 22 January, 10.40am, Lincoln Financial Field
The Philadelphia Eagles may have the home-field advantage, but it is the Minnesota Vikings that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Minnesota flew out of the blocks against the New Orleans Saints and they looked as though they would cruise to victory before Drew Brees led the Saints back into the clash.
The dream of a home Super Bowl looked over when the Saints kicked a field goal with only seconds left to play, but with ten seconds on the clock Case Keenum was able to connect with Stefon Diggs and Diggs raced away to score arguably the most famous touchdown in the history of the franchise.
Philadelphia are no tougher than New Orleans and if the Vikings play like they did in the first-half, they will prove too strong for their rivals.
The issue could be expectation and it is no secret that the franchise as a whole has struggled in these big games.
Minnesota have won four of their past five games as away favourites and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
Philadelphia kept their season alive with a fighting 15-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons and they are a side that are very tough to beat in front of their home fans.
They have won eight of their past nine games at Lincoln Financial Field and they have covered the line in six of these victories.
I really don’t think that there is as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and this has the making of a very low-scoring and tense affair.
Philadelphia are right in this clash and I am keen to back them against the line with the insurance of a 3.5 points start.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
2017
We have reached the penultimate weekend of the NFL season and there are now only four teams left in Super Bowl contention.
The New England Patriots are clear favourites in Super Bowl LI betting markets and will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday morning before the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers do battle for the NFC Championship.
There is betting interest in both games this weekend and you can find our thoughts on each game below!
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Monday 23 January, 7.05am, Georgia Dome
This is set to be a fascinating clash between two of the most exciting teams in the NFL and arguably the two most in-form quarterbacks.
Not a great deal was expected from the Atlanta Falcons this season, but led by Matt Ryan they have been simply outstanding throughout.
Ryan showed just how good he was when he tore the Seattle Seahawks to shreads last weekend and he meets a Green Bay Packers defence that is much weaker.
The Falcons will start this clash as home favourites and they have won five of their eight games in this scenario, but have not made a profit from a betting standpoint and they are 3-5 against the line.
An Aaron Rodgers masterclass led the Packers to victory against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and he is arguably playing in the best form of what has already been a stellar career.
Green Bay have not lost a game for almost two months and they have scored at least 30 points in their past five games, while they have won four of their past five meetings with the Atlanta Falcons.
The Packers have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a clear profit and there is no way that any team with a firing Rodgers in it should ever be as long as their current price.
This has the potential to be one of the best games of the season and the Packers represent great value at their current price.
Back Green Bay To Win @ $2.65
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 23 January, 10.40am, Gillette Stadium
The New England Patriots will be playing in their fifth straight AFC Conference Championship and are clear favourites to qualify for yet another Super Bowl.
New England were far from their best against the Houston Texans last weekend – Tom Brady made a couple of uncharacteristically poor throws – but they were still able to get the job done just like they have all season.
The Patriots have not looked like losing a game in well over a month and they have won their past three meetings with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites and they have the same record against the line – making them one of the best betting teams in the NFL this weekend.
Pittsburgh did not do it easy and they failed to score a touchdown, but they were still able score a very narrow victory over the Kansas City Chiefs to keep their own winning streak alive.
The Steelers have won six of their past seven games by a touchdown or less and they just continue to find a way to grind out results.
They have won their only games as away underdogs this season and their record away from home is good, but they have struggled against the Patriots in recent seasons.
New England are a match-winning juggernaut and should be able to qualify for the Super Bowl with a fairly comfortable victory.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)