The NFL is serving up a Thanksgiving treat for fans with a full slate of games for fans to feast upon.
It kicks off with the now traditional Friday triple header featuring a trio of divisional battles followed by a rare Saturday morning (AEDT) game featuring the Jets and Dolphins.
Monday’s games are headlined by the big cross-conference battle between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills, two sides with Super Bowl aspirations.
If that was not enough there are plenty of enthralling contests on the cards on Monday including the AFC South game between the Texans and Jaguars.
We’ve got you covered with our Week 12 previews and best bets here so read on and see who we are backing below.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Friday 24 November, 4:30am, Ford Field
Detroit 22 – Green Bay 29
Detroit having a monopoly on the early holiday kickoff since 1934 has come under fire in the last few decades but now that they are good, it’s nice to have a bit of excitement surrounding this NFC North contest.
The day has not been kind to the Lions however with the franchise going 37-44-2 including six straight defeats since 2017.
That streak should come to an end this week however with the Lions a short priced favourite against the struggling Packers.
Green Bay’s hopes took another blow with the news Aaron Jones was going to miss more time due to injury, suffering a knee injury in last week’s win over the Chargers.
Without Jones the tough task of keeping pace with the Lions becomes much more difficult and with Jordan Love likely running for his life away from Aidan Hutchinson, I’ll take the home team to pick up the win.
SGM: Detroit to Cover -7.5, Jared Goff 250+ Pass Yards, Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime TD @ $4.59
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
Friday 24 November, 8:30am, AT&T Stadium
Dallas 45 – Washington 10
The Dallas defence will be expecting a different sort of Thanksgiving feast when they host the Washington Commanders, who committed six turnovers in their loss to the Giants last week.
Cornerback Daron Bland in particular will be eyeing off another interception as he currently leads the league in interceptions with six, return yardage (146) and defensive touchdowns (four).
Turnovers have been a major issue for Washington all season long with Sam Howell tied for the league lead with 12 interceptions on the season and the Commanders giving the ball away 21 times in total.
Those mistakes will come back to haunt them in a game like this and I’m expecting a big win for Dallas.
Dallas to Win by 14+ @ $2.00
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Friday 24 November, 12:15pm, Lumen Field
Seattle 13 – San Francisco 31
A busy Friday closes out with San Francisco heading up the west coast to take on Seattle.
With just one game between these teams in the standings and a rematch in the Bay Area coming in Week 14, getting the early advantage in the tiebreaker with a win here is paramount for both teams.
Since coming out of their bye the 49ers have been in fine form, cruisng to comfortable wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay and their superstar trio of offensive players has been a big reason.
I’ll take the three of them to team up and score three touchdowns in what I’m expecting to be a productive day for the San Francisco offence as they look to put down a marker ahead of the run home in the NFC playoff race.
Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to Combine for 3+ Touchdowns @ $2.90
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Saturday 25 November, 7:00am, MetLife Stadium
For the first time ever, the NFL is putting on a Black Friday game and it is somewhat fitting that a holiday that pretty much revolves around shopping is being broadcast by Amazon.
When this was scheduled there was plenty of hype around it given the expectations for both the Jets and Dolphins, but right now it looks like we are headed towards a one-sided affair.
Miami has been less productive on the road this season and the Jets defence will do all it can to keep this one close, but I cannot see how the home team scores more than 13 points here.
They have been atrocious on offence pretty much all season and going to Tim Boyle isn’t going to be the saviour as they wait for the unlikely return of Aaron Rodgers.
Miami to Win and Under 41.5 Points @ $2.30
Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, Nissan Stadium
Tennessee 17 – Carolina 10
A month ago you would have thought Tennessee would cruise home in this game but the Titans have been on a slide following Will Levis’ impressive debut.
They have lost their last three games, the last two by double digits which means you have to talk yourself into Carolina having a chance of an upset here.
It’s not a great chance with the Panthers in the midst of a similar slump following their lone win of the season losing three in a row and failing to score more than 13 points in any of those games.
While the Titans defence has struggled of late, Carolina’s offence is not scaring anyone and they should be kept in check, while Tennessee’s offence is not exactly built for explosive plays themselves.
This has the makings of a game that’s close right up until the fourth quarter simply because neither team can score.
Under 37 Points @ $1.87
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, NRG Stadium
Houston 21 – Jacksonville 24
Top spot in the AFC South goes on the line in Houston in this game with the Texans looking to overtake the Jaguars in the division race.
But they have been showing a maturity beyond their collective years finding ways to win games they should have had no business doing so.
It all boils down to rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, who is probably going to see his bubble burst at some stage, but that shouldn’t stop us enjoying the ride while we can.
Their 6-2 run started with a huge 37-17 win in Jacksonville back in Week 3 and I love the value on Houston as a home underdog.
Houston to Win @ $2.05
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
NY Giants 10 – New England 7
Two questions spring to mind when previewing this game, firstly, does RedZone have to bother showing us anything from this game since there probably won’t be anything that reaches the level of a “highlight”?
Secondly, how on earth are the New England Patriots favoured in this game, even after taking into account how bad the Giants have been.
Weirdly enough both team’s long term future would be better served with a loss that would help their draft position but someone has to win this game.
The Giants at least showed some signs of life last week in their win over the Commanders which is more than you can say about New England’s offence.
We’ve got two bad teams involved so take the home team and hope for the best.
NY Giants to Win @ $2.45
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta 24 – New Orleans 15
Atlanta’s quarterback carousel continues to turn with Arthur Smith set to turn back to Desmond Ridder for this week’s game against New Orleans.
New Orleans might be dealing with some injuries including star receiver Michael Thomas heading to injured reserve (again) but they have more than enough firepower to score plenty of points here.
The dynamic duo of Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara can keep this offence moving with key contributions from other bit part players while their defence stifles Atlanta’s offence.
It seems like the Falcons are going to be stuck in neutral until they finally unleash Bijan Robinson and for that reason I’m going to back against them in games like this.
New Orleans to Win @ $1.90
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati 10 – Pittsburgh 16
While no team will ever admit to openly being happy when there’s a major injury to a star player on an opposing team, the Steelers were definitely happy to hear they weren’t dealing with Joe Burrow this weekend.
It’s another fortunate break for a team that continues to defy the numbers, confound the experts and find ways to win despite not actually playing that well.
They seem to have a knack for winning close games thanks in large part to a defence that keeps opposing offences under control and Jake Browning will be one of their easier tests this season.
Cincinnati should be preparing for a playoff run but after losing their leader and star player, they appear to be ready to go in the tank.
If there was ever going to be a game Pittsburgh finally gets a blowout win this should be it but I can’t see them scoring enough points to pull away by more than two scores.
Pittsburgh to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.30
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 27 November, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 27 – Tampa Bay 20
Both of these teams are very much in the playoff hunt heading into the business end of the regular season.
How they have remained competitive might remain a mystery for some but you can only play the schedule in front of you.
Indianapolis is only a game out of the Wild Card spot and they don’t have the toughest run home, even Gardner Minshew can guide them to four or five wins.
Tampa faces a bit more of an uphill climb and their form line is a little bit more troubling, falling to 4-6 after starting the season 3-1.
However both teams will see this as a very winnable game and both defences have given up points to mediocre offences of late so I’m happy to back a shootout.
Over 44 Points @ $1.90
Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns
Monday 27 November, 8:05am, Empower Field
This game is a real test of what you believe in, can the Cleveland Browns win in a manner that has by and large gone out of style in the last 20 years or do you have to follow the surprisingly in form Denver Broncos.
Cleveland’s 7-3 record is nothing to be sneezed at, especially given the patchwork nature of their quarterback spot, but their defence is just that good they keep winning.
This comes despite the NFL’s attempts to continually legislate defence out of the game but players like Myles Garrett are not going go away quietly.
They might give up points here and there but they force turnovers and make enough big plays to make life easy on their offence.
Meanwhile, Denver might actually be good.
No, really, even though they were awful last year and looked pretty poor to start this season they are starting to click under Sean Payton.
Their offence is starting to play clean games while the defence that gave up 70 points in September has forced a turnover in seven straight games including 13 during their four game winning streak.
Denver is a tough place to play when they are winning with the crowd creating one of the most hostile atmospheres going around and I think they are starting to get behind this team which could be the difference in a game like this.
Denver to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.20
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Monday 27 November, 8:05am, State Farm Stadium
A month ago, anyone considering backing Arizona to win an NFL game really should have been asked to sit down and re-evaluate their decision making process.
But here we are, the market for this game is a pick and Arizona has been competitive in their last two games.
Meanwhile the Rams look like they are starting to fall apart with injuries at the very least limiting Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp (game status uncertain at the time of writing).
But with both guys on the wrong side of their 30th birthday and really struggling against Seattle last week, I’m thinking they are going to find this game a little bit too much.
Arizona to Win @ $1.90
Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills
Monday 27 November, 8:25am, Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia 37 – Buffalo 34 (OT)
If you like Philadelphia here, the only question you have to be worried about is how much the Eagles have in the tank after their big win in Kansas City on Monday Night Football.
The schedule makers did them no favours giving them these games back to back and only six days apart, but that’s the hand they were dealt.
Buffalo’s beaten up defence is not as imposing as it was a couple of weeks ago and holding the Jets to a pair of field goals does not suggest all is well in New York State.
Across the board the Eagles have a much better team and will be too much for Buffalo to slow down.
I also like the over simply because despite Josh Allen’s turnover issues this season, they are still finding ways to score at least 20 points, which means we could be in for a game where the winner needs to get close to or go over 30.
Philadelphia to Win and Over 48.5 @ $2.90
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Monday 27 November, 8:25am, Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas 17 – Kansas City 31
We keep waiting for it, but the Chiefs offensive explosion just does not seem to be coming anytime this season.
It’s not the most exciting brand of football they are playing but it’s still good enough for a 7-3 record thanks to a defence that has been carrying more than their share.
Vegas saw their new coach bubble burst in Miami last week as they suffered their first loss under Antonio Pierce but they still gave the Dolphins all they could handle.
I’m expecting Kansas City to win this game and maybe this is their breakout game but taking them at a two score line might be a step too far at the moment.
Six of their ten games and four of their seven wins have been decided by single digit margins and this one has the makings of another one to add to that tally.
Las Vegas to Cover +9 @ $1.90
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens
Monday 27 November, 12:20pm, SoFi Stadium
LA Chargers 10 – Baltimore 20
Even though they are a team that with a history of failing to live up to the hype, the Chargers have fallen in a heap much earlier than anyone expected.
Brandon Staley’s outburst following their loss to Green Bay last week set off all sorts of alarms and the Chargers look like they are ready to collapse in the home stretch and start over with a new coach in 2024.
Baltimore on the other hand is the best team in the AFC, Lamar Jackson is putting himself into MVP favouritism and they know a win before their Week 13 bye would put them in control of the top seed in the conference.
Quite simply this is a game they can’t afford to lose if they want to be in position to go on a Super Bowl run, and I can’t see Harbaugh, Jackson and that defence letting it slip against a broken opponent.
Baltimore to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Tuesday 28 November, 12:15pm, US Bank Stadium
Minnesota 10 – Chicago 12
A tumultuous month for Minnesota closes out with a primetime feature against a division rival leading into a much needed bye week.
The story of Josh Dobbs has been great to follow but he’s got to be looking forward to having a week off to get his bearings, especially after a bruising trip to Denver last week.
The Vikings won the first meeting between these teams 19-13 in the game where the world was introduced to Tyson Bagent following an injury to Justin Fields.
The 2021 first round pick returned to the lineup last week against Detroit and had one of his better games, although it wasn’t enough as the Bears still lost by five.
Minnesota should have their number in this one and as long as they avoid stupid turnovers they should be able to handle the Bears here.
I’ll take a Vikings win and the under in the doubles market, since points have been at a premium in these primetime games for a nice bit of value to wrap up the week.
Minnesota to Win and Under 43.5 Points @ $2.95
The final week in November might not mean much to your average Australian, but for those of us that follow the NFL, it only means one thing: Thanksgiving.
We get a Friday triple header and for the first time in what feels like an eternity, all three games are watchable contests.
Detroit and Dallas maintain their respective home games, as is tradition by hosting Buffalo and the Giants respectively before a cross conference battle of playoff contenders as the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings welcome the 6-4 New England Patriots.
Monday’s slate is headlined by Tennessee hosting Cincinnati while a number of other teams will be eager for statement wins to set themselves up for a strong run home.
It is also the first time since Week 5 where all 32 teams are in action so without further ado, let’s get into our previews and best bets for every game.
Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills
Friday 25 November, 4:30am, Ford Field
Despite being the only team on Thanksgiving with a losing record, Detroit has played in their fair share of close games this season.
Sitting at 4-6 thanks to a three game winning streak, their playoff hopes are technically alive, but nobody is realistically expecting them to finish the season on a tear and find a way to sneak in.
Buffalo might have shown some vulnerabilities lately, but they have the talent to take care of business against this upstart Detroit outfit.
They showed their resiliency last week responding to a heartbreaking loss to Minnesota and their game against Cleveland getting relocated to the Motor City with an eight point win that was far more convincing than the scoreline would suggest.
Josh Allen was contained somewhat by the Browns defence but the Lions have had a hard time keeping most opponents in check and Buffalo should be able to outscore them in a back and forth affair.
SGM: Buffalo HT/FT, Josh Allen 2+ Touchdown Passes, Devin Singletary Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.41
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Friday 25 November, 8:30am, AT&T Stadium
Thanksgiving has not been a happy holiday for Dallas as of late, with the Cowboys losing the last three feature games and seven of the last ten.
This will be the first time they host the Giants on Thanksgiving since 1992, a game won by the Cowboys 30-3 and with Mike McCarthy’s side coming off their biggest ever road win last week, confidence will be sky high.
New York fell to Detroit last week and some are starting to wonder if their early season magic is starting to wear off.
These divisional games tend to be tightly fought contests and even if the Giants are starting to fade, they will surely save one last salvo for their NFC East rivals.
The 9.5 point line in favour of Dallas is a clear reaction to the respective Week 11 results and with the history of divisional games, I’ll back the Giants to find a way to cover the line.
Back NY Giants to Cover +9.5 @ $1.90
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots
Friday 25 November, 12:20pm, US Bank Stadium
Minnesota 33 – New England 26
Aside from their three point effort against Dallas last week, Minnesota has had no trouble scoring points while New England is seemingly incapable of doing pretty much anything on offence in the last few weeks.
Despite this alleged mismatch on paper, there are two reasons to give the Patriots a little bit of hope of an upset.
First of all the Vikings defence has been absolutely torched in the last few weeks with Washington rushing for 137 yards while Buffalo and Dallas both put up over 450 yards with at least 150 of those coming on the ground.
The second reason is Kirk Cousins has been rubbish in prime time throughout his career, posting a 10-19 mark overall in games that kick off at 7:00pm USET or later and 6-9 for Minnesota.
Even so, New England’s numbers have been somewhat inflated in the last few weeks by beating up on bad quarterbacks such as Sam Ehlinger and Zac Wilson (twice) and even if Cousins is sub-par, Minnesota has the weapons to bail him out.
After all, if the production of the Mac Jones lead offence in the last few weeks is anything to go by, 14 points could be enough for Minnesota to win the game if they avoid any crucial turnovers.
As nervous as it might make you, punters should probably trust primetime Cousins more than 2022 Mac Jones.
Back Minnesota to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, FedEx Field
Washington 19 – Atlanta 13
There’s something a little bit feisty about the Commanders in the last few weeks and it coincides with Taylor Heinicke taking over the starting job.
Having moved to 6-5 they suddenly find themselves on the verge of an unlikely playoff berth and with the news of Chase Young getting moved to the active roster, that will only aid their defence.
Losing Kyle Pitts to injured reserve should harm Atlanta’s offence, if they actually used their dynamic pass catcher but instead it has been Drake London and Cordarrelle Patterson coming up big in the last couple of weeks.
At 5-6 Atlanta needs to win to keep pace with Tampa Bay but Washington just has an aura about them and I like their chances to edge the Falcons in a game where we might learn which team’s success has been a bit of a mirage.
Back Washington to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.50
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville 28 – Baltimore 27
Let’s not kid ourselves, the Ravens were poor last week and the windy conditions can only provide so much of an excuse but they most important thing is they did enough to record a win over the Panthers.
That allowed them to maintain their one game advantage atop the AFC North heading into this very winnable game against the lowly Jaguars.
It would behove them to be on their guard however as Jacksonville can cause them some problems by holding onto the ball and keeping Lamar Jackson off the field.
But the Ravens have no problems playing in tight games as we seem to say every week and we’ll stick with a winning formula and back the Ravens by less than two touchdowns.
Back Baltimore to Win by 1-13 @ $2.45
New York Jets vs Chicago Bears
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
The Jets might be 6-4 but they are trending in the wrong direction while the Justin Fields spark could have gone out with the reports of a shoulder and/or hamstring injury.
Combine that with the Jets being forced to turn their hopes over to Mike White after another Zac Wilson horror show and you have to think that points will be at a premium in this game.
Wilson needed a chance to reset and have a break after some utterly disastrous performances but White is not going to come in and play saviour for that offence.
Only three of the Jets games have gone over the total points line and with two limited quarterbacks (for different reasons) the under looks to be the way to go.
Back Under 39.5 Points @ $1.90
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, Nissan Stadium
Tennessee 16 – Cincinnati 20
Just over 10 months ago the upstart Bengals came into Tennessee and capitalised on a Ryan Tannehill meltdown to advance to the AFC Championship.
Now they will come into the same stadium, missing a key offensive player and (at the time of publish) major questions hanging over another one.
However if last week’s 37 point effort against a strong Steelers defence is anything to go by, they should be able to hold their own against this stout Titans defence.
The big difference between the Titans and Steelers however is the fact Tennessee is capable of moving the ball with some competency, thanks in large part to Derrick Henry.
He gives the Titans a real shot at an upset and it is tough to justify the Bengals favouritism on the road and undermanned.
Back Tennessee to Win @ $2.02
Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, Bank of America Stadium
The Panthers have made another quarterback change with Sam Darnold the next man to be thrown into the firing line for the flailing franchise.
Perhaps the only reason they have a real chance at winning this game is the fact Denver’s offence has been one of if not the worst in the NFL and whoever is the first team to 10 points might just win the game.
There’s no need to overcomplicate this, take the unders and catch up on the box score at the end of the Titans-Bengals game.
Back Under 36 Points @ $1.90
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, Hard Rock Stadium
The Dolphins high flying offence will be too much for the Texans to handle in this one, with the visitors currently in possession of the worst record in the NFL.
Miami has had a week off to freshen up for their run at not just a playoff berth but potentially their first division title since 2008.
Prior to the bye they were hitting another gear with Tua Tagovailoa suddenly the most productive quarterback in the game.
They may hit the over on their own and Houston just won’t be able to keep pace with them.
SGM: Miami to Win by 14+ and Over 46 Points @ $3.22
Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 28 November, 5:00am, FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland 23 – Tampa Bay 17 (OT)
Playoff hopes in season 2022 might be beyond the Cleveland Browns but they still have plenty to play for over the coming weeks.
This will be their final game without their controversial offseason acquisition Deshaun Watson as he concludes his 11 game suspension.
While the imminent return of their marquee man might give them some hope, the uptick in Tampa Bay’s form of late is not going to help them in the short term.
Having had a week off after their win in Germany, look for Tampa to pick up where they left off and find a way to pick up another vital win in their quest to overcome a slow start.
Back Tampa Bay to Cover -3.5 @ $1.98
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 28 November, 8:05am, State Farm Stadium
Arizona 24 – LA Chargers 25
Both of these teams might have lost last week but there are very different opinions on their potential fortunes for the remainder of the season.
Arizona looks like a dysfunctional mess and after a nightmare trip to Mexico last week, things probably won’t get better for the 4-7 team.
The Chargers are one game out of the AFC Wild Card spot with a 5-5 record and could jump by one or more of the Jets, Patriots or Bengals if they lose.
LA has been one of the better teams against the spread all season with a winning record in that market and they should have no problems taking care of a -3 line.
Back LA Chargers to Cover -3 @ $1.90
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders
Monday 28 November, 8:05am, Lumen Field
Seattle 34 – Las Vegas 40 (OT)
Both of these teams are in a position where they should be relying on their offence to have any form of success this season so logic would dictate that we’re going to be in for a shootout.
Seattle has put up at least 27 points in five of their last seven games and will be salivating at the prospect of facing one of the league’s worst defences in the Raiders.
Vegas has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments and the fact they continually get shredded on the ground will have Seattle’s running back Kenneth Walker dreaming of a big day.
Last week was the first time Vegas kept an opponent under 20 points but considering it was the Broncos there’s not too much to read into that.
Thankfully the Raiders offence has been able to move the ball and find a way to 20 points in all bar two of their games to try and balance out their defensive woes.
Both teams should find a way to score 20 in this one and the total points number looks way too low.
Back Over 47.5 Points @ $1.90
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams
Monday 28 November, 8:25am, Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City 26 – LA Rams 10
Stick a fork in the Rams, they are done like a turkey that’s been cooking for 12 hours and it’s unlikely they will find a way to answer the challenge of the Chiefs.
Sporting a league worst 2-7-1 record against the spread, including 1-4-1 mark as an underdog, the Rams’ Super Bowl title defence has been nothing short of a nightmare.
Patrick Mahomes is on a roll to another MVP award and has overcome the departure of his favourite target Tyreek Hill by relying on Travis Kelce to shoulder the load but it’s working quite well so far.
It’s a huge line for the Chiefs to cover but it’s tough to see the Rams doing enough on offence to keep up with them and this could be over by halftime.
Back Kansas City to Cover -15.5 @ $1.90
San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints
Monday 28 November, 8:25am, Levi’s Stadium
San Francisco 13 – New Orleans 0
Despite being three games behind the Eagles in the race for the NFC’s top seed, San Francisco might be the best team in the conference right now.
They are starting to look like the team that went to the Super Bowl in 2019 in their three-game winning streak and there’s still room for them to improve.
It just hasn’t happened for New Orleans this season though, with injuries and poor play dooming them to another season on the outside looking in.
They are yet to win back to back games all season which is the sign of a team that just doesn’t have the mental fortitude to maintain any form of consistency.
Two of those defeats have come by a double digit margin and they are coming off a 27-20 win over the Rams last week so the 49ers should roll.
Back San Francisco to Cover -9.5 @ $1.90
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
Monday 28 November, 12:20pm, Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia 40 – Green Bay 33
It wasn’t easy for the Eagles last week, pushed all the way by a rejuvenated Colts team but they survived the test to move to 9-1.
Green Bay continued to falter through the Aaron Rodgers farewell tour, losing to Tennessee last week and their offence was held below 20 points yet again.
While their defence did an admirable job keeping Derrick Henry in check it came at the expense of a big day for Ryan Tannehill who threw for 333 yards.
The Eagles have a balanced offence that can get the job done through the air or on the ground and it’s tough to see the Packers slowing them down.
Green Bay should put up some points with their running backs but Philadelphia just has too many options to slow down and I’ll back them to win and cover in a shootout.
Back Philadelphia to Cover -6.5 & Over 46.5 Points @ $3.50
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Tuesday 29 November, 12:15pm, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 17 – Pittsburgh 24
Both of these teams have shown a bit of life of late with the playoffs a slim chance for both if they can find a way to win out.
The much maligned hiring of Jeff Saturday has at least made the Colts look like a professional after the dysfunctional end of the Frank Reich era.
Admittedly getting one of the best running backs in the game back in the lineup and a quarterback who is a capable starter probably helps out as well.
Pittsburgh’s vaunted defence just gave up 37 points to a severely undermanned Bengals offence with Joe Burrow and backup running back Samajae Perine linking up for three scores.
Jonathan Taylor is a much better running back than Perine and even with the Steelers defence keying on him he should be able to run the Colts to a win and cover.
Back Indianapolis to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
Thanksgiving week in America is always a special part of the NFL calendar as we get a Friday triple header to kick off our weekend.
As has been the tradition forever, Detroit will host the very early kickoff, followed by Dallas and the recently created Thanksgiving Night contest which this year will feature the Saints and Bills.
Week 12’s schedule has given us a trio of delectable games in the very early window on Monday with Cincinnati hosting Pittsburgh, Indianapolis taking on Tampa Bay and New England hosting Tennessee.
That will set the stage for a huge late morning game between the Packers and Rams with both NFC heavyweights looking to course correct ahead of the festive period.
Our massive NFL Monday wraps up with a huge AFC North contest between Baltimore and Cleveland.
The NFL run home begins this week and this is when the contenders will start to emerge from the pack.
Read on for our Week 12 NFL previews and best bets!
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Friday 26 November, 4:30am, Ford Field
For the second time in three years, the Bears and Lions will kickoff the Thanksgiving feast.
In the 2019 edition of this matchup, Chicago recorded a 24-20 win on the back of Mitchell Trubisky throwing for 338 yards and outduelling Lions backup David Blough.
There is not a lot to get excited about in this matchup with the 3-7 Bears favoured over the 0-9-1 Lions, but you could very easily talk yourself into a Detroit upset for three reasons.
Firstly Jared Goff is returning to the lineup after missing Week 11 with an oblique injury and will be the better of the two quarterbacks between him and Andy Dalton, who is starting for the injured Justin Fields.
Secondly, underdogs have been the better bet in 2021, going 92-73 against the line.
Finally, if the rumours are to be believed, Chicago will be firing Matt Nagy after this game regardless of the result so the Bears may be wanting their soon to be former coach out the door.
Take Detroit at the line for a little bit of insurance.
Back Detroit to Cover +3 @ $1.94
Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders
Friday 26 November, 8:30am, AT&T Stadium
Dallas 33 – Las Vegas 36 (OT)
You may as well start spelling Las Vegas as F-I-N-I-S-H-E-D because this team has been awful since coming out of its bye.
The Raiders have lost their last three games to fall to 5-5 and out of the AFC playoff picture, having been outscored by their opponents 96-43 in that span.
Dallas has ruined many Thanksgivings with poor performances, especially over the last few years including being on the receiving end of a 41-16 drubbing from Washington last year and a 28-6 belting from the LA Chargers in 2017.
The potential of a flat performance from the Cowboys does linger over the markets for this game, especially considering the availability concerns hanging over their top two receivers, you just cannot have any faith in the Raiders.
Look for Dallas to unleash Ezekiel Elliott on the Raiders porous rush defence as he bounced back from his lowest output of the season.
SGM: Dallas to Cover -7.5, Ezekiel Elliott 70+ Rush Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.40
New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills
Friday 26 November, 12:20pm, Caesars Superdome
New Orleans 6 – Buffalo 31
At full health this would be a proper blockbuster however injuries for the Saints make this a much more one sided contest on paper.
Buffalo might be struggling for consistency, alternating wins and losses over their last six games but they need this game in the worst possible way.
Half a game behind New England in the AFC East and coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Indianapolis, the Bills should come out firing.
Five of the last seven offensive touchdowns given up by New Orleans have been from quarterbacks rushing into the end zone and Josh Allen can move with the best of them.
Take Buffalo to cover as well as Allen to score a touchdown with his legs while also throwing for a couple of scores.
SGM: Buffalo to Cover -6, Josh Allen 2+ Touchdown Passes & Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $5.00
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, Hard Rock Stadium
Cam Newton is now officially back and while he didn’t pick up a win in his first start of the season, he looked a lot more comfortable than any other time in the last two and a bit seasons.
Finding the Panthers as a small favourite heading into this game is a bit of a surprise considering Miami is now on a three game winning streak.
However when you dig into those wins, one came against Houston, another came against Baltimore on a short week and the most recent one was over the Jets.
Carolina needs this game to stay in touch with the rest of the teams chasing an NFC wild card spot and I’ll take the more desperate team to get the job done.
Back Carolina to Win @ $1.80
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville 21 – Atlanta 14
If this game reaches 40 total points it will be a major surprise considering how bad both offences have looked in the last few weeks.
Jacksonville has not broken 20 points in its last four games and has not scored more than 23 points in a game all season.
Atlanta had a potent offence however the absences of Calvin Ridley and Cordarrelle Patterson have been felt as defences have keyed on Kyle Pitts in recent weeks.
The Falcons have not scored a touchdown in either of their last two games and while they should be able to move the ball on this Jaguars defence, they may only need one or two good drives to get the job done.
Back Under 46 Points @ $1.94
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, NRG Stadium
It took 10 weeks but the Texans finally got their second win of the 2021 NFL season, pulling off a massive upset over the heavily favoured Titans.
The return of Tyrod Taylor (and five Tennessee turnovers) drove them to a win and they now find themselves favoured for the first time this season, which tells you all you need to know about the Jets.
Houston has been surprisingly strong at the line, covering on five occasions while the Jets have covered just twice to date.
Whether he is ready or not, Zach Wilson will make his first start in five weeks with his backups Joe Flacco and Mike White both ruled out of this weekend’s game.
Buoyed by the confidence of their turnover feast against Tennessee, I expect Houston’s defence to drive the Texans to a big win over one of the few sides they might actually be better than.
Back Houston to Cover -2.5 and Over 44.5 Points @ $3.50
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
NY Giants 13 – Philadelphia 7
There is value to be had this weekend and it looks like the Eagles have found their identity under new coach Nick Sirianni.
They will run the ball down your throat and that formula has got them right back in the mix in the NFC playoff race.
Making matters worse for the Giants is the fact that their run defence has been porous more often than not and they are coming into this game on a short week after playing in hot and humid Tampa.
We’ve seen plenty of blowouts this season and it would not be at all surprising if this was another one.
SGM: Philadelphia to Win by 14+ @ $4.00
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati 41 – Pittsburgh 10
The reinforcements are coming for the Steelers after their defence was shredded by the Chargers last weekend.
While another road trip is less than ideal after flying to the west coast, getting several key players back on defence will only make them more dangerous.
They, along with rookie running back Najee Harris are shouldering the workload and taking a lot of pressure off the aging shoulders of Ben Roethlisberger who can only do so much now.
The Bengals did a good job beating up on Las Vegas last week but this is easily their biggest game of the season to date and I’m not sold that they are up to the challenge just yet.
At their listed price, the Steelers are the value play.
Back Pittsburgh to Win @ $2.60
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 31 – Tampa Bay 38
Tampa Bay got themselves off the canvas with an efficient win over the Giants on Monday Night Football as Tom Brady returns to Indianapolis for the first time as a Buccaneers player.
He took part in some memorable games against the Colts on the biggest stage with the Patriots and with both teams vying for playoff positioning in 2021, this could be another tantilising affair.
It is tough to see Tampa slowing down Jonathan Taylor who destroyed Buffalo last week, however he may need a similar output to keep up with a Bucs offence that is getting more and more healthy.
Tampa’s defence is far from bullet proof and an upset is possibly on the cards, however the smarter bet here is to take the over with two good offences on the field.
Back Over 52 Total Points @ $1.90
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Monday 29 November, 5:00am, Gillette Stadium
New England 36 – Tennessee 13
New England is back to being a good team and will need to be treated as one for the rest of the season when finding a betting play.
But there is no conceivable way they should be favoured by almost a touchdown against a Titans team that has defeated every good team they have played to date.
Mike Vrabel always saves something special for his games against Bill Belichick and seems to have his team firing on all cylinders when it matters most.
The fact this team is coming off an appalling performance against Houston is enough to consider taking Tennessee outright at $3.05.
However with New England coming off a 10-day break following a shutout victory, the insurance of the line is where to go.
Back Tennessee to Cover +6.5 @ $1.90
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 29 November, 8:05am, Empower Field
Denver 28 – LA Chargers 13
Perhaps the only real area of concern heading into this game is how much the Chargers have left in the tank after their epic 41-37 win over Pittsburgh last week.
They were pushed all the way and Denver is a tough place to go, even for a team that makes the trek every year.
However the Broncos last game will provide a path to victory that the Chargers can feel very confident in, as the Eagles ran all over them.
LA has one of the most dangerous backs in the game in Austin Ekeler, who is second in the league in total touchdowns with 13, four of which came against Pittsburgh.
Given Ekeler is a threat as a runner and receiver he seems destined to find the end zone in a Broncos victory.
SGM: LA Chargers to Cover and Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
Monday 29 November, 8:25am, Lambeau Field
Green Bay 36 – LA Rams 28
A loss in this game for either team will mean they have to farewell their hopes of a first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs.
The Rams were awful in their last two games heading into their weekend off as they lost their offensive identity, as well as reliable receiver Robert Woods.
Green Bay on the other hand went toe to toe with Minnesota in a shootout last week but will face more resistance here.
That should put more pressure on their defence to slow down the Rams and keep them in the contest.
While it was much maligned in recent years, the Packers defence has been much improved and I like them to carry the home team to a hard fought victory.
SGM: Green Bay to Win and Under 47 Points @ $3.55
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
Monday 29 November, 8:25am, Levi’s Stadium
San Francisco 34 – Minnesota 28
One team that does appear to have found its identity in the last couple of weeks is the San Francisco 49ers.
The importance of this game cannot be overstated given both teams are at 5-5 however tiebreakers have the Vikings in the playoffs and San Francisco on the outside.
A win over another NFC team would go a long way to bolstering their position ahead of the run home.
With improved play from both quarterbacks the points total of 49 seems way too low here, especially when you consider the Vikings defence has had some real problems at times this season.
The head to head value is on Minnesota as a slight underdog in a game that I would have as a pick, but the points total is the safe option.
Back Over 49 Points @ $1.90
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Monday 29 November, 12:20pm, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore 16 – Cleveland 10
The bye week cannot come soon enough for the beaten up Browns and a win here would have them feeling pretty good about where they stand.
However with the way that offence has looked basically since mid-October with injuries decimating the roster, it is tough to see them keeping pace with the Ravens in this one.
Baltimore has not exactly lit it up in its last two games however this is a game they know is important for their season and will come out ready to play.
At full health the Browns are the better team but with only a handful of fit players and some dysfunction going on behind the scenes, you cannot feel good about their chances here.
Back Baltimore to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
Tuesday 30 November, 12:20pm, FedEx Field
Washington 17 – Seattle 15
It’s fair to say the Wilson-Carroll combination in Seattle has gone a season too long and it is really starting to show up in their results.
Their playoff hopes are essentially done at 3-7 and punters should really start taking them on while they can still get a premium.
On the other side, Washington is not exactly an all-time great team, far from it but they have shown a bit of fight in the last couple of weeks and that they won’t go away easily.
Just one game out of an NFC Wild Card spot a win here would be crucial for them and they are a functioning at a much higher level than Seattle.
Back Washington to Cover -1 @ $1.90
Thanksgiving weekend is always one of the highlgihts on the NFL calendar as we set our sights on Friday’s turkey day double-header.
Monday’s early slate just got a whole lot more interesting with the league flexing the Steelers v Ravens matchup forward due to COVID reasons, which compliments another key divisional battle between the Colts and the Titans rather nicely.
A potential Super Bowl preview is also on the card between the Bucs and the Chiefs in the late window, followed by a good old rivalry game on Sunday Night Football between the Packers and Bears.
With all 16 teams back in action, you can find our best Week 12 bets below!
Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans
Friday 27 November, 4:30am, Ford Field
Detroit and Houston kick off this year’s Thanksgiving slate in a game that holds very little importance outside of bragging rights.
The Lions were shutout by the Panthers last week in a game that may have sealed Matt Patricia’s fate at the helm, while the Texans walked away with their third win of the season on another flawless performance from Deshaun Watson against the Patriots.
Houston has opened as the -3 favourites ahead of their trip to Detroit and it’s not hard to see why.
Considering the offensive line he’s playing behind and the total lack of weapons he has to throw to, Watson has been phenomenal in what would probably be an MVP-like season if the Texans actually had a winning record.
The Lions have plenty of talent to roll right over Houston, but their complete lack of composure and, for lack of a better word, coaching, makes them a very difficult side to trust.
Defensively these two sides are among the worst in the league ranking Top 10 in total yards allowed.
It’s worth noting that 10 of Detroit’s last 11 home games at Ford Field have gone Over the Total, so with the Texans finding some form, the Winner/Over Double might be the play here.
Tip: Texans to Win & Over 51.5 Total Points @ $2.95
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
Friday 27 November, 8:30am, AT&T Stadium
The NFC East continues to throw up curveballs with the Eagles now leading the division by only half a game.
After a miserable start to the season, the Cowboys suddenly find themselves right in the the thick of things following an upset win over the Vikings last week that has propelled them to 3-7.
Believe it or not, Dallas could realistically make a push for the postseason if Andy Dalton and Ezekiel Elliott can carry the way, and judging by their remaining schedule, it’s safe to say the Cowboys have most of the favours.
Before we get too carried away though, there’s nothing to say the Cowboys will roll right over Washington this week.
The Football Team made short work of the Joe Burrow-less Bengals last week in their 20-9 victory and also have plenty left to play for boasting a 3-7 record themselves.
Many don’t know, but Washington’s defence has allowed the fourth-fewest yards and the eighth-fewest points in the league – as Cincinnati found out the hard way last week.
This is a huge test for both teams that could rule a line through their season, but based on everything mentioned above, Washington really stands out with a +3 head start.
Tip: Back Washington to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The bookies fancy this game to be fairly high scoring with a whopping 54-point Total set at the time of publish.
Reflecting back on the season so far, it’s fair to say neither team should have any trouble scoring based on how poorly the Falcons and the Raiders have played defensively this year.
On the flip side, this is a massive game for Vegas and they do look the team worth your money.
Despite coming up agonisingly short to the Chiefs last week, the Raiders’ offence showed enormous poise to force a game-winning drive from Patrick Mahomes, while it’s also become clear that this team will be a tough out should they make it through to the postseason.
The Falcons are no doubt a handful, but it’s hard to see them matching Vegas’ offence with Julio Jones still questionable with a hamstring injury.
After Taysom Hill tore Atlanta’s defence apart last week, go ahead and back the Raiders to win this one comfortably.
Tip: Raiders to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.94
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
The Dolphins are looking to get back to business this week following last week’s reality check at the hands of the Broncos.
Miami head coach Brian Flores has already stated that Tua Tagavailoa will start Monday’s game, but since it’s being reported that he’s still dealing with a thumb injury, it’s hard to know for sure if we’ll see him for a full four quarters.
Even so, the Dolphins shouldn’t feel too concerned with the winless Jets up next.
To their credit, New York went toe-to-toe with the Chargers last week, but the game ultimately boiled down to some more questionable decisions from Joe Flacco over the concluding stages.
Plenty of people feel Miami might still be a year or two away, but with a 2-1 record following a previous loss this season, they should be bouncing back this week.
When you throw in the fact the Dolphins could leapfrog their way back into the seventh seed with a win against the Jets and a Raiders and Ravens loss, they should sense the importance of this game.
Tip: Back the Dolphins 1-13 @ $2.20
Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Giants
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
The Giants face a treacherous run home with games against Seattle, Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Dallas, so it’s safe to say this week’s battle against the Bengals is a must-win.
New York, like the rest of the division, have everything to lose from here on out.
Fresh from the bye at 3-7, the Giants could take one giant step towards winning the East this week if they can dispose of the Joe Burrow-less Bengals in Cincinnati.
Losing Burrow obviously makes life difficult for Zac Taylor’s side from here on out, but that isn’t to say Brandon Allen can’t at least keep the Bengals competitive over the remaining six games.
As far as betting goes, the Giants are $1.40 favourites head-to-head, which does seem a little short considering how many problems Daniel Jones has had with turnovers this season.
Fortunately, Cincinnati’s defence is far from elite, but the Bengals might be able to keep this one close if they can keep the ball on the ground.
The Giants have been the third-best side to bet on against the spread this year covering in seven of their ten games so far, but the -6 advantage does seem a little ambitious in this scenario.
Tip: Back the Bengals to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.90
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
The Colts and the Titans were two of the biggest winners to emerge from Week 11 as they now prepare to meet for the second time in three weeks.
The Colts made short work of Tennessee in their 34-17 victory a fortnight ago, largely thanks to a huge day from the defence.
Indy gave up only three third down conversions and 147-yards in the air to Ryan Tannehill, a problem Mike Vrabel has no doubt addressed during the team’s film study throughout the week.
The Colts were also mighty impressive last week during their 14-point comeback against the Packers.
Even though Aaron Rodgers forced overtime, the defence really stepped up with two crucial turnovers that helped decide the outcome of the game.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has plenty to feel good about themselves.
Derrick Henry’s walk-off touchdown last week against the Ravens was a real confidence builder for a team that has seemingly been going through the motions, while the offence as a whole has really started to click over the last few weeks.
So… who’s winning this one?
The Colts are a tough out, but it’s worth noting Henry had his way when these two sides met a fortnight ago rushing for over 100-yards.
Philip Rivers has been good this season, but after shutting down Lamar Jackson last week, this Titans defence deserves much more credit.
If the turnover-prone Rivers returns and the Titans get Henry moving early, they should go a long way to covering this generous line.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, Bills Stadium
The Chargers have very little to play for at this point, but this should still be a fun game between two high-power offences.
Buffalo are laying a -5.5 point advantage at the line following the bye, which does appear generous considering all seven of the Chargers’ losses this season have come by no more than a touchdown.
Los Angeles picked up a much-needed win last week over the hapless Jets, while they also have to feel pretty good about the way the defence has been able to create turnovers recently.
The Bills, meanwhile, currently hold the third seed in the AFC Playoff standings, but they can’t afford to relax anytime soon with the Cots, Titans and Browns all tied at 7-3.
At first glance, this does shape up as a potential trap game for the Bills, but it’s worth noting Buffalo has gone a perfect 5-0 since 2015 following the bye week.
The spread looks a little out of whack on this one, so instead, Buffalo 1-13 looks the play.
Tip: Back the Bills 1-13 @ $2.40
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, TIAA Bank Field
A game against the struggling Jaguars couldn’t have come at a better time for the Browns.
Cleveland have so far flown under the radar playing to a 7-3 record with back-to-back wins over the Texans and Eagles following the bye, and this looks to be another huge opportunity for them to improve on their playoff chances.
Neither of those victories were particularly convincing, but based on the fact Nick Chubb has rushed for over 100-yards twice now since his return from injury, it’s safe to say the Browns might just win this game big.
Last week the Jags were torn apart by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, while they also rank ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed.
With Jake Luton struggling to limit the turnovers and the offence relying squarely on James Robinson, this should be a comfortable Browns win.
Tip: Back the Browns 14+ @ $3.00
New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, Gillette Stadium
The Patriots and the Cardinals are both on the bounce-back trail after coming up short by a touchdown to the Seahawks and Texans respectively last week.
Arizona has opened as the rightful favourites on the road with a rest advantage on their side, and based on the fact they’ve played to a 2-1 record on the back of a previous loss this year, they do look difficult to argue against.
For the first time in a long time, Cam Newton wasn’t to blame for New England’s shortcomings last week.
The Patriots were simply outplayed by Deshaun Watson down the stretch – a worrying sign with the defence now faced with an even more daunting task in Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
On the plus side though, the Pats may be able to get away with running the ball more often than not against a Cardinals defence that ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed.
It’s also expected to be fairly chilly in Foxboro right through the weekend, which may make this game a challenge for a Cardinals team venturing the West Coast to the East Coast.
Neither result here would shock, but if the Patriots can keep it simple on the ground, they might just pull off an upset here.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $1.91
Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers
Monday 30 November, 5:00am, US Bank Stadium
Pretty interesting game this between two sides that aren’t entirely out of the playoff race.
Minnesota’s loss to Dallas last week made things tricky in the highly competitive NFC North, but they do have a chance to get things back on track and maybe catch the Bears with their fifth win of the season.
Also looking for win No. 5 are the Panthers, who just shutout a fellow NFC North team in the Lions last week.
Former XFL quarterback P.J. Walker was the star of the show in Teddy Bridgewater’s absence, and it looks as though he’ll start again this week with Bridgewater still suffering through a knee injury.
As far as betting goes, these sides have been two of the most inconsistent all season, but you do have to like the Vikings to bounce back.
While the Walker storyline was fun last week, it’s hard to ignore the fact he threw two interceptions against a god-awful Lions defence.
Perhaps more importantly, the Panthers also rank Top 10 in rushing yards allowed this year, so if the Vikings feed Dalvin Cook like they normally do, he might just be able to win this game on his own.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.91
Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints
Monday 30 November, 8:05am, Empower Field
Sean Payton reminded everybody why he is still considered one of the most intelligent and savvy coaches in the league last week when he opted for Taysom Hill to start in place of Teddy Bridgewater.
After spending most of his career as the Saints’ go-to utility man, Hill threw just five incompletions against the Falcons and finished with 284 yards and a couple of touchdowns from scrimmage in the blowout win.
The Broncos, on the other hand, pulled off a huge upset against the Dolphins to improve to 4-6.
Playoffs aren’t entirely out of the question for Denver at this point, but considering the Broncos are yet to win back-to-back games this year, it’s pretty difficult to see them replicating last week’s performance.
That said, Denver does have what it takes to keep this game close defensively.
Even without Von Miller, the Broncos have still been exceptional through the air where they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest yards and just 14 passing touchdowns.
These stats alone should force Payton to stick with Hill and Alvin Kamara on the ground game, which might produce mixed results.
Also worth noting is the fact this game is being played at Mile High.
Denver is expecting -2 temperatures on Monday, challenging conditions for a Saints team that has spent most of its season indoors.
Throw in the fact the Saints haven’t visited Mile High since 2012, and suddenly the Broncos look a decent bet.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.90
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Monday 30 November, 8:05am, SoFi Stadium
Another NFC West battle headlines the late window with the Rams looking to pick up where they left off last week in their win over the Bucs.
Los Angeles are favoured by nearly a touchdown in the market and it’s really difficult to see this game going any other way.
After last year’s lull, Sean McVay appears to be back to his creative best on the sidelines, while the defence has been enormous over the last two months allowing less than 30 points in each of the Rams’ last seven games.
San Francisco will relish the chance to play spoiler against their rivals following the bye, but it’s hard to see it happening with the injury list still chock-full of big names.
The Niners have actually won each of their last three games against LA, but with Jared Goff firing on all cylinders and the pass rush making life difficult for a well-coached team like the Bucs last week, the Rams should win this one easily.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Monday 30 November, 8:25am, Raymond James Stadium
This is easily the game of the week, if not the year.
Just like they were this time last year, the Chiefs are rolling quite comfortably into the playoffs at 9-1, while the Bucs, on the other hand, are hoping to bounce-back from another embarrassing primetime loss to the Rams last week.
The obvious school of thought heading into this game is that Tom Brady doesn’t play poorly in back-to-back games.
Last week the GOAT threw two interceptions, including a game-ending one on the final drive to seal the Bucs’ fate.
As we saw six weeks ago following Tampa’s loss to Chicago though, the Bucs tend to bounce back in these spots, as they did the following week in a huge 38-10 rout against the Packers.
Of course, Kansas City poses an entirely different problem for the Bucs this week.
Patrick Mahomes and company are seemingly just going through the motions, and it’s fair to say they still have a gear to go.
Defensively, the Bucs have been exposed over the last three weeks with losses to the Saints and Rams, and it is no surprise to find them now ranked eighth in passing yards allowed.
We saw Mahomes lead a beautiful two-minute drill last week against the Raiders to find Travis Kelce for the win, and based on everything we’ve seen from Brady in these big games, he doesn’t seem to be able to match that level of competition anymore.
With the defence exposed and Mahomes doing whatever he likes, this should be another win for the Chiefs, albeit narrowly.
Tip: Back the Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.50
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Monday 30 November, 12:20pm, Lambeau Field
The Packers and the Bears will write another chapter in their long-standing rivalry on Monday from Lambeau Field.
It’s very rare to find these two sides meeting for the first time this late in the year as typically this game makes up one of the key primetime games in the first few weeks of the season.
Even so, this game still holds its usual intrigue as the Packers look to bounce-back from a messy loss to the Colts last week.
Green Bay appeared well on its way to victory with a 14-point buffer at half-time, right before the offence imploded to lose on a field goal in overtime.
The Bears, meanwhile, are looking to snap a four-game losing streak fresh from the bye.
After opening the season 5-1, Chicago’s season has entered a downward spiral with the offence struggling to find points on a weekly basis.
Trends wise, the Packers have won eight of their last 10 games against the Bears, but the -8.5 line does look generous for a team that has gone 2-2 against the spread as the home favourite this year.
That said, the Packers are a perfect 2-0 following a previous loss this year, and despite last week’s result, there was still a bit to like about Green Bay’s offence with Allen Lazard back in the fold.
Defensively the Bears do pose a matchup problem for the Packers, but it’s really hard to see them matching Matt LaFleur’s high-scoring offence for a full four quarters on the scoreboard.
The Packers are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against Chicago, so take Green Bay to win what might be another classic.
Tip: Back the Packers 1-12
Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks
Tuesday 1 December, 12:15pm, Lincoln Financial Field
A battle between the birds rounds out Week 12 with the Eagles hosting the Seahawks on Tuesday.
Plenty of people in Philly have hit the panic button following back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns, and it appears things aren’t about to get any easier with Russell Wilson coming to town.
Seattle still looks vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, but they do pose a serious problem for an Eagles team that can’t stop turning it over.
Quarterback Carson Wentz still leads the league in interceptions and sacks, a recipe for disaster against a quarterback like Wilson if he’s afforded generous field position.
Seattle’s 2-3 record on the road this year is of high concern, but this does look a nice game for Pete Carroll and company to really figure things out with the NFC West crown still up for grabs.
Obviously the Eagles have just as much to play for atop the East, but with the entire team in disarray and pressure mounting on Doug Pederson, it’s hard to see them coming up with any kind of solution to high-powered Seahawks offence that remains one of the most dangerous in the league.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Win & Under 50.5 Total Points @ $2.70
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Thursday 3 December, 5:15am, Heinz Field
This game was originally scheduled to be played on Thanksgiving, but due to Baltimore’s long list of positive tests, the NFL was forced to move it forward to Monday’s early window.
There’s still no market available at time of publish, but it’s likely the Steelers will start something close to -4.5 favourites heading in.
As the only remaining undefeated side in the league, the Steelers continue to fire on all cylinders after knocking off the Jaguars 27-3 last week.
Ben Roethlisberger is a shoo-in for the Comeback Player of the Year Award at this point, while the defence, led by Minkah Fitzpatrick, continues to make big plays and create turnovers when it matters most.
Obviously it’s always a special occasion when these two AFC North rivals get together, but based on Baltimore’s efforts of late, it’s tough to fade Pittsburgh in this spot.
Lamar Jackson is far from the quarterback he was last year and it has become painfully clear that the Ravens’ blitz-frenzy approach on defence doesn’t work against everybody.
Last time these two sides met back in Week 8 the Steelers forced four turnovers – all on Lamar.
Pittsburgh’s pass rush has only gotten stronger since then, and with a few key names like J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram still on the COVID list, the Steelers should be improving to 11-0.
Tip: Back the Steelers 1-13
There are only six weeks remaining in the regular season and we are still a long, long way away from uncovering a true Super Bowl favourite.
Four serious contenders remain in the form of the Patriots, Ravens, 49ers and Packers, but that isn’t to say teams like the Saints, Seahawks, Chiefs and Vikings aren’t in the mix.
We could move one step closer to clarity this week as the schedule ramps up with six crucial games.
Friday’s meeting between the Colts and Texans should tell us plenty about the AFC South. The same can also be said for the NFC East as the Eagles battle the Seahawks on Monday followed by a blockbuster between the Patriots and Cowboys.
With the bye week’s also coming to an end, this is by far the toughest slate of games to predict. If you’re looking for some winners though, be sure to read our entire 2019 NFL Week 12 Preview below.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Friday 22 November, 12:20pm, NRG Stadium
The ledger is all square at 6-4 again between these two bitter South rivals.
Baltimore did the Colts a favour by handing the Texans a brutal 41-7 loss last week, while Indianapolis helped their own cause by defeating the Colts 33-13 with Jacoby Brissett back under center.
Our bookmakers are siding with the Texans in this one, installing them as early 3.5-point favourites with home-field advantage. There’s a case to be made for the Colts however, especially with a convincing 6-3-1 record against the spread in their last 10-games against Houston.
Frank Reich’s side already owns a win over the Texans this year winning a 30-23 thriller back in Week 7. Both coaches will review the tape of their previous meeting, and it is worth noting how well Indy’s defence played holding Houston to only four third down conversions.
The Colts’ defence has been something special this year and nobody is talking about. Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest yards and the 12th fewest points, but on the other side of the ball, the injury to star running back Marlon Mack could complicate things on offence.
Mack’s absence is a huge break for the Texans and Bill O’Brien’s defence. That said, this is a must-win game for Houston if they hold any hope of securing a first-round playoff bye, so it’s worth backing the favourites.
Tip: Back the Texans to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.92
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, Soldier Field
Chicago’s season crashed and burned last week as the Bears lost 17-7 to the Rams.
It was a rough day for all involved, but the biggest storyline emerged right after the game as Mitch Trubisky announced he suffered a hip injury.
Nobody knows for sure if Trubisky is actually injured or if this is all a big ploy to rest him for the remainder of the season. Either way, it appears Bears fans will have to deal with Chase Daniel under center, which of course makes this game almost impossible to predict.
In slightly more positive news, the Giants return from the bye week well-rested looking to earn their third win of the season. New York has lost six-straight games dating back to the start of October, but the Giants can find confidence in knowing they’ve won two of their last three against Chicago.
The Total for this game is set at 40.5-points, which looks about right considering the struggles both teams have had on offence. Daniel Jones has regressed significantly since his exciting debut in Week 3, while Daniel’s accuracy is of concern for the Bears.
It tends to get cold this time of year in Chicago, which should only slow things down even more. The Bears defence isn’t quite what it was last year, but considering the Giants are only 2-2 following the bye since 2015, take Unders.
Tip: Giants Under 17 Points @ $1.85
Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, FirstEnergy Stadium
Just when it looked as though the Browns might salvage a last-minute playoff spot, Myles Garrett goes and gets himself suspended.
Cleveland will now go without their number one overall draft pick and their number one overall defensive playmaker for at least the remainder of the regular season. Garrett’s absence places enormous strain on an already depleted defensive front, but if there is one point of good news, it’s the Browns’ weak strength of schedule.
The Dolphins come to town this week fresh from a 37-20 loss to the Bills. Miami has won only two games all year, but that isn’t to say Dolphins’ bettors have walked away empty handed.
Brian Flores’ side has covered the spread in five of their last 10-games, which makes the 10.5-point line in favour of the Browns this week look a little generous. The Phins have also put up 20 points or more in three of their last five games against the Browns, so with a few defensive standouts missing at the Dawg Pound, take the Overs on Miami.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) & the Dolphins Over 16.5 Total Points @ $2.40
New York Jets vs Oakland Raiders
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
Locked and loaded for a return to the playoffs, the Raiders hit the road this week trying to improve on their three-game winning streak against the Jets.
Oakland’s 17-10 win over the Bengals last week wasn’t overly convincing, but the defence did well to hold Cincinnati to only 4.2 yards-per-play and just 24 minutes of possession.
Jon Gruden’s side will need more of that this week as they battle a disappointing yet dangerous Jets team.
New York earned its third win of the season against the hapless Redskins last week, and while it means very little in this forgettable season, the Jets are still building towards a strong finish.
Even though these two teams play in the same conference, they still haven’t met since 2017. The Jets have won six of their last 10-games over the Raiders, although you still might be better off sticking with the Total in this one.
Neither defence is performing well against the pass this season, evident in both teams ranking Top 10 in yards allowed through the air. The Total has gone Over in eight of Oakland’s last nine games against an opponent from the AFC East, so back the offences to do the talking.
Tip: Over 47 Total Points @ $1.92
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
The Steelers squandered a serious opportunity to move into the playoff conversation last week during their 21-7 loss to the Browns.
Pittsburgh now needs to win out from here and have results go their way if they wish to sneak a Wild Card berth, but the good news is, the winless Bengals are coming to town.
Cincinnati turned up for a fight last week against the Raiders but still fell short 17-10. Joe Mixon’s 86-yard day was encouraging, but the quarterback position is still a major concern as Ryan Finley managed only 115-yards and one interception.
Speaking of quarterback’s, it’s been a big week for the Steelers’ Mason Rudolph. The third-round rookie managed to avoid a suspension in the skirmish with Myles Garrett, but his overall 242-yard, one touchdown performance against the Browns still left a lot to be desired.
All things point towards the Under when you factor in the respective quarterbacks. It’s a slim 39.5-point line, but with Under saluting in nine of Pittsburgh’s last 10-games on the road, it should be safe.
Tip: Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, Mercedes Benz Stadium
There’s nothing more than NFC South bragging rights on the line, but boy should this be a fun game.
Atlanta’s recent two-game winning streak has caught everybody by surprise. The Falcons now own wins over the Saints and Panthers, leaving the chance of a three-peat against their three division rivals an enticing storyline.
Tampa Bay felt the full wrath of a Saints team looking to rebound last week as the Bucs lost 34-17 at home. It was a rough day for the defence and also Jameis Winston, who this time around threw four picks.
There’s nothing encouraging about the Bucs right now and that is also the case when it comes to their recent betting trends. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games, which makes the Falcons the only team worth playing on.
Atlanta can win this game is the likes of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley challenge the Bucs through the air. Bruce Arians’ team has allowed the third-most passing yards this year, so take the Falcons to give their home fans something to cheer about in this lost season.
Tip: Back the Falcons to Cover the Line (-4 Points) @ $1.92
Washington Redskins vs Detroit Lions
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, FedEx Field
This shapes up as a bit of a nothing game between two sides that have been tough to watch all season.
Detroit sunk to their third straight loss last week to the Cowboys, although for parts of the game, it looked as though the Lions might pull off a huge upset.
The Redskins, meanwhile, didn’t even come close in their 34-17 loss to the Jets. Washington, now at 1-9, are locked in for a top three draft pick, but the Lions might have some tanking plans of their own if Matthew Stafford misses another game.
You have to rewind all the way back to 2016 to find the last meeting between these two teams. The Lions won that game 20-17, which is the same line the bookies have set for Monday’s encounter.
If Stafford suits up the Lions should win easily. But like last week, it’s a big ‘what if’ that isn’t worth gambling on.
Reports suggest Stafford could miss the remainder of the season, making it tough to trust Detroit on the road in Washington. Likewise, the Redskins’ atrocious offensive line makes it tough to trust Dwayne Haskins, so all things considered, play on the Under.
Tip: Under 41.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, New Era Field
The Bills came up clutch last week in a must-win game against the Dolphins. Buffalo won comfortably 37-20 to drastically improve their chances of making the playoffs, but at 7-3, can the Bills continue to add to their impressive record?
With the Broncos coming to town, there’s certainly every chance the Bills improve on their 3-2 home record. Buffalo is favoured by five-points heading into Monday’s game and it’s certainly hard to argue with their 6-3-1 record against the spread this season.
Denver continues to find new ways to lose after most recently blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against the Vikings. The Broncos’ defence is partly to blame, while the offences inability to find points in the red zone is of equal concern.
Buffalo has had its share of defensive problems over the last month, but the Bills have consistently been one of the best teams when it comes to stopping opponents in the red zone. Buffalo has allowed the sixth-fewest red zone touchdowns all year, which should spell a low-scoring game for the Broncos.
Tip: Broncos Under 16.5 Total Points @ $1.88
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, Mercedes Benz Superdome
Plenty of fans would have had this game circled on their calendar long ago, so it’s a shame the Panthers have failed to live up to their end of the bargain.
Back-to-back losses has Carolina reeling at 5-5 as their chances of making the playoffs have dwindled down to four percent. Last week’s ugly loss to the Falcons was highlighted by a four-interception game by Kyle Allen, making a win over the division leading Saints this week an absolute must.
New Orleans is locked in for a playoff spot at 8-2, but there are a few things Sean Payton’s side needs to work on. Defensively, the Saints have taken a step back in recent weeks against the pass, which could play into the hands of the Panthers if Allen can limit the turnovers.
This is typically one of the toughest betting plays each and every season, which makes the 9.5-point spread in favour of the Saints look a little generous.
Despite their shortcomings over the last fortnight, the Panthers offence is still one of the most dangerous in the league so long as Christian McCaffrey is on the field.
Throw in a perfect 3-0 record against the spread in their last three games against the Saints, and it’s safe to say the Panthers are worth backing.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $1.92
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 25 November, 8:05am, Nissan Stadium
Not one but two crucial AFC South battles? Yes please…
The Jaguars and Titans square off in Tennessee this week as the pair look to keep in touch with the Colts and the Texans.
If you’ll recall, these two sides met back in Week 3 in a 20-7 Jags win. This time around though, there’s more than just bragging rights on the line as both teams need a victory if they wish to stay in the Wild Card conversation.
The bookies have sided with the Titans in this one listing them as 3.5-point favourites largely due to their 35-32 win over the Chiefs a fortnight ago. Tennessee now rolls into this game fresh from a bye, and it just so happens this very scenario has proven more than profitable in recent years.
Since 2015, the Titans are 3-1 straight-up following the bye. Home field advantage counts for a lot, but so does the recent run from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has the offence ticking along nicely.
You have to rewind all the way back to 2013 to find the Jags’ last win over the Titans at home, so with all things considered, take Tennessee to win a close one.
Tip: Back the Titans 1-13
Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday 25 November, 5:00am, Lincoln Financial Field
Battle of the birds and battle of the Wild Card hopefuls as the Seahawks and Eagles meet in Philly.
Seattle returns to the field fresh from a bye week after their thrilling overtime win against the Niners back in Week 10. The Eagles, meanwhile, will be looking to make up for a handful of blown opportunities in their 17-10 loss to the Patriots last week.
These two teams haven’t met since 2017, adding further intrigue to a matchup featuring two very similar offences.
The bookmakers are favouring the Eagles ever-so slightly by 2.5-points at home, but make no mistake, this is a huge test for Philly’s defence against one of the best offences in the NFL.
Seattle ranks third in total yards and points scored this year. The Eagles’ defensive front has been the cause of question all season long, while the Seahawks, on the other hand, have earned a steady 4-1 record against the spread on the road.
This should be nothing short of a shootout, but if you’re looking for a betting play to hang your hat on, make it this: since 2010, the Seahawks are 8-3 straight-up following a bye.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Win @ $2.05
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys
Monday 25 November, 8:25am, Gillette Stadium
With the way the NFC is shaping up, who’s to say this isn’t a potential Super Bowl preview?
The scoreboard didn’t do the Cowboys any justice last week in their 35-27 win over the Lions. It was close to a career-high day for quarterback Dak Prescott completing 29 of his 46 passes for 444-yards and three touchdowns, while Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb also cleaned up with 100-yards each.
Not to be outdone, the Patriots came through with a win of their own on the road in Philadelphia. The Pats weren’t quite as impressive on the stat sheet, but New England’s defence once again did the talking as the reigning champs got their revenge for Super Bowl 52.
So, what does all that say about this week’s blockbuster from Foxboro?
If you’re a diehard Dallas fan, you might already know the last time the Cowboys won against the Patriots away from home was back in 1987.
You might also know that since then, the Patriots have recorded five-straight wins over the Cowboys, the most of recent of which came in a 30-6 blowout back in 2015.
Of course, the past means nothing, and to be honest, the Cowboys offence looks a step above New England’s right now. Dak Prescott is probably the MVP if Lamar Jackson didn’t exist, while Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ B-grade list of receivers (outside of Amari Cooper) continue to make plays.
Dallas simply needs to find a way to exploit the Patriots’ defence, which the Eagles accomplished at certain times last week.
Make no mistake, this will be an enormous test of Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore’s playcalling ability. The thing is, both coaches have failed to find any creativity in big games against top opponents.
Only a fortnight ago the Cowboys managed to botch a win against the Vikings at home. The sky was seemingly falling following that result, just like it was when the Cowboys loss to the Packers in Week 5 and the Jets in Week 6.
Tom Brady was furious following last week’s game about his, and his teammates, performance on offence. We’ve seen the Patriots respond time and time again over the last decade following a flat game the week before, so this one could get ugly.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover the Line (-6 Points) @ $1.88
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Monday 25 November, 12:20pm, Levi’s Stadium
The NFL wasted no time flexing this game to primetime after it was originally scheduled for an afternoon kickoff, and it makes perfect sense.
This could turn out to be a potential NFC Championship Game preview between two of the top teams from the conference. And despite what the odds might suggest, this game should turn out to be very, very close.
The Packers head West fresh from a bye week at 8-2. It took all four quarters for Green Bay to dispose of the Panthers a fortnight ago, but like the defence has been doing all year, the Packers walked away with a win thanks to a gritty red zone stand.
San Francisco also had to dig deep last week in their come from behind win over the Cardinals. The Niners trailed 16-10 at half time before pulling out a 36-26 win, but if you caught a glimpse of the game, you’ll know Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t look so good throwing a pair of picks.
The Packers have won six of their last 10-games over the Niners, but as far as recent history goes, San Francisco has caused Green Bay plenty of heartache in the past.
Only five years ago this was considered a serious NFC rivalry as the two teams met in the playoffs in 2013 and 2014. There’s no love lost, so the question becomes… who will win?
Green Bay’s demise on defence is cause for concern, but the Packers still rank sixth in turnovers. Mike Pettine’s men continue to create takeaways at opportune times, which only spells further trouble for Garoppolo, who made two horrendous throws last week in the red zone.
The Packers have shown they can give up large chunks of yards but still knuckle down to allow minimal points. Well-rested and with a point to prove, take Green Bay to keep this close.
Tip: Back the Packers to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.92
Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens
Tuesday 26 November, 12:15pm, LA Coliseum
A win this week for either team would add some late spice to the playoff picture.
Baltimore’s demolition over the Texans last week saw the Ravens’ chances of a first-round playoff bye increase dramatically, while the Rams also remain on the fringe of a Wild Card spot after holding on to beat the Bears.
Lamar Jackson is the MVP favourite for a reason as he continues to toy with opposing defences. Whether it’s running the ball or airing it out, the Ravens’ multi-dimensional man should cause plenty of headaches for Sean McVay in the film room.
The Rams can rest a little easier though knowing their defence has been elite against the ground game. Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards so far this season, while the Rams also rank Top 10 in turnovers.
If you’re expecting a shootout in this game, you may be sorely disappointed. Like the Rams, the Ravens have also come on in leaps and bounds defensively over the last fortnight after holding Houston to only seven-points and 232 total yards last week.
The Total has gone Under in five of Baltimore’s last six games against an NFC opponent, so with a slim three-point line set in favour of Baltimore, stick with something a little safer.
Tip: Under 46.5 Total Points @ $1.92
If you’re still catching your breath following last week’s 105-point heart-stopper between the Chiefs and Rams, bad news – there’s even more drama heading your way this week!
Thanksgiving football is one of the greatest days on the NFL calendar, and to celebrate, there’s three huge games to choose from on Friday.
As it that wasn’t enough, the week closes out with a key divisional round battle between two old rivals, so what are you waiting for? Be sure to check out all of our top tips ahead of NFL Week 12 below.
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Friday 23 November, 4:30am, Ford Field
Detroit Lions (4-6):
The Lions had to dig deep against the Panthers after surrendering the opening touchdown of the game last week, but they were able to walk away 20-19 winners by making the most of their opportunities.
Statistically speaking, things weren’t great. Detroit were 0-7 on third down conversions midway through the third quarter, and for all of his time on the field, Matthew Stafford finished with just one touchdown pass to his name.
What mattered though, was Detroit’s ball movement. A crucial 54-yard field goal right before half time meant the difference between winning and losing, and in case you weren’t aware, Stafford’s connection with wide receiver Kenny Golladay remains a thing of beauty, especially when the veteran pass-thrower gets time in the pocket.
Perhaps the most telling sign however, was Kerryon Johnson. The rookie running back finished with 97-scrimmage yards and a touchdown to his name, but with the good comes the bad – the former Auburn stud is set to miss a chunk of time to a knee injury.
That’s hardly what you want to hear ahead of this week’s key game against the division leading Bears, especially with a pristine 5-0 home record vs. Chicago.
Chicago Bears (7-3):
The good news: the Bears are 7-3.
The bad news: it doesn’t mean much.
Chicago went on to miss the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 after opening the first 10 weeks with a 7-3 record. Of course, the NFC North is much weaker this time around, but there’s a few areas of concern for this up and about Bears team.
First and foremost, Mitch Trubisky’s shoulder status remains unclear. As of this writing, it looks likely Chicago will be without their quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for Matt Nagy’s offence on a short week.
Next, despite last week’s three-point win over the Vikings, there’s just not enough magic happening on offence. Trubisky’s scrambling ability is great, and the Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen one-two punch works a treat, but do the Bears really have the receivers to score points in the playoffs?
Defensively Chicago can get by, and it helps when Khalil Mack is healthy. Keep in mind the Bears did give up 126-yards to Stefon Diggs last week though, so expect a big day for Golladay, and a tough one for Chicago if Trubisky misses time.
Tip: Back the Lions at The Line (+3 Points) @ $1.95
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins
Friday 23 November, 8:30am, AT&T Stadium
Dallas 31 – Washington 23
Dallas Cowboys (5-5):
Every cloud has a silver lining, especially when your division foe loses their starting quarterback for the year.
Alex Smith’s gruesome leg injury has opened up the door for Dallas to run the table and make something of this otherwise lost season. The Cowboys took another step in the right direction last week defeating the Falcons 22-19, and for the second straight week in a row, you have to buy into what Dallas are selling.
The most noticeable change in the Cowboys has come on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive line was busy all day in Atlanta, pressuring Matt Ryan off the edge to pile on three sacks.
You also can’t go without mentioning Leighton Vander Esch here, who recorded yet another interception for the second week in a row. The rookie is shaping up as a potential Pro Bowler, only further contributing to Dallas’ newfound, smashmouth defence.
On offence, things could be better – keep in mind Dallas had nothing but field goals next to their name in the fourth quarter last week.
It helps when you can revert back to Ezekiel Elliott though, who is now averaging 5.0 yards per-attempt thanks to the powerful work of Dallas’ man-on-man offensive line. It also helps when you convert 54% of your third down opportunities.
This week, the Cowboys have a chance to reclaim the division, and as their 17-5 home record against the Redskins suggests, they’ll be tough to beat on both sides of the ball.
Washington Redskins (6-4):
An injury like the one Alex Smith sustained last week not only hurts the player, it hurts the entire team involved.
You could see the life fade from Washington after Smith went down in the third quarter last week with a tibia and fibula fracture in his right leg. It was a game the Redskins were leading in, and probably should have won against the Texans, but after Smith’s emotional exit from the field, the Redskins scrambled for answers.
Eventually the ball landed in backup Colt McCoy’s hands, who by all accounts, did a pretty good job of filling-in. People often forget, but McCoy was one injury away from leading Texas to a National Championship in 2009, and some of those same qualities were certainly on display in the fourth quarter last week.
Smith is a reliable thrower, but he isn’t a scrambler. McCoy is, and although he’s vulnerable to pressure from his blindside, he did lead the Redskins down to (long) game-winning field goal territory last week, so don’t underestimate him.
This might all be a blessing in disguise, and it’s also worth mentioning McCoy now returns to his home state to face the Cowboys. We’ve seen Texas guys do Texas sized things in front of their hometown fans before, McCoy included.
Tip: Back the Cowboys 7-12 @ $4.75
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Friday 23 November, 12:20pm, Mercedes Benz Superdome
New Orleans 31 – Atlanta 17
New Orleans Saints (9-1):
Sooner or later somebody is going to figure out how to play the Saints, but today is not that day.
Like we’ve seen New Orleans do all season, they put their foot on the throat of the Eagles last week to record a statement 48-7 victory over last year’s Super Bowl champs.
Drew Brees threw four touchdowns, and Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for nearly 200-yards and two scores, but it was so much more than that.
The Saints controlled the time of possession holding the ball for nearly a quarter longer than the Eagles. They also recorded 28 first downs, an unfathomable number against an Eagles defence that used to be one of the most revered in the league.
There’s plenty we could detail about New Orleans’ playcalling, or even Sean Payton’s game management, but this week’s game comes down to one thing: home field advantage.
The Falcons are 3-9 in their last 12 games when playing inside the Superdome. Atlanta haven’t won in New Orleans since the 2017 playoffs, and given their recent struggles, that streak looks likely to continue.
Atlanta Falcons (4-6):
Last week’s field goal fest against the Cowboys was Atlanta’s to lose, but really, they never looked capable of gaining full control of the game.
It’s tough to win games when you don’t touch the ball, and it’s even tougher when you can’t win the battle up front.
The Cowboys controlled the game at the line, both defensively and offensively. Atlanta’s late quarter fightback thanks to a Julio Jones touchdown was nice, but their predictable quick passing game compiled of slants and swing routes to Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu is becoming stale.
Sooner or later, a serious discussion will need to be had with head coach Dan Quinn, because the hot seat is well and truly starting to burn.
Tip: Back the Saints to Beat The Line (-12.5 Points) @ $1.91
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati 20 – Cleveland 35
Cincinnati Bengals (5-5):
The Bengals are hurting right now in more ways than one.
Defensively Cincinnati are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to stopping both the pass and the run, ranking top two in yards allowed in both categories.
The Bengals gave up 232-yards to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and Ravens running back Gus Edwards last week, which doesn’t fill you with confidence going against Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson this week.
On attack, the absence of star wide receiver A.J. Green was once again felt as Cincinnati struggled to muster up any sort of passing attack. Fortunately, Green looks likely to return this week against the Browns, a welcome sign that should make life a lot easier for Andy Dalton.
It all boils back down to the defence though, and things aren’t going to magically improve. The Bengals are 8-1 when playing at home against Cleveland, but if they fail to lay a finger on Baker Mayfield, the young rookie should make them pay.
Cleveland Browns (3-6-1):
Fresh from the bye, the Browns will be hoping to build on their big win over the Falcons a fortnight ago.
Between Hue Jackson and Condoleeza Rice, the Browns have had a busy week in the tabloids, but don’t let it distract you from the fact that this is a very winnable game.
The Browns made short work of the Falcons thanks to their defence. Cleveland created two turnovers and completely shut down Atlanta’s running game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do this week against the Bengals.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has been sacked 21 times this year, highlighting just how vulnerable the Bengals’ offensive line is.
The Browns aren’t well known for their pocket pressure, however they did bring down Matt Ryan for a pair of sacks two weeks ago.
Cleveland’s recent record against Cincinnati, like most other teams, is poor. The Bengals will spin their wheels in this game, but with a shocking defence matching up against a talented, powerful running back like Nick Chubb and an athletic wide receiver Jarvis Landry, take the Browns at nice odds.
Tip: Back the Browns To Win @ $2.35
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay 27 – San Francisco 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7):
The Bucs look to be leaning toward Jameis Winston this week against the Niners.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched midway through last week’s loss to the Giants after throwing three picks, but really, it mightn’t matter who starts under centre for Tampa, because this team is in trouble.
Tampa Bay’s only saving grace last week was the running game. Peyton Barber enjoyed his best game of the season rushing for 106-yards and a score, although it’s hard to bank on another big effort from the third year back.
The Bucs are 1-7 in their last eight games and are 5-14 against the Niners, less than encouraging stats even with home field advantage.
San Francisco 49ers (2-8):
The season might be over for the Niners, but rookie quarterback Nick Mullens should still make this game worth watching.
Sunday’s game will be Mullen’s first start on the road, and with San Francisco fresh from a bye week, it’s surprising to see San Francisco start as the underdog.
The Niners’ defence is suspect, particularly in the secondary. Fortunately, the Bucs are struggling to sort out their quarterback quandary, while at the same time giving up large chunks of yards to opposing receivers.
This feels like the type of game tailor-made for some play action passing to Greg Kittle. Expect to see him on plenty of underneath routes, and if the 49ers can find themselves in the red zone, Matt Breida should be able to do the rest.
Tip: Back the Niners To Win @ $2.45
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, New Era Field
Buffalo 24 – Jacksonville 21
Buffalo Bills (3-7):
The Bills return from the bye hoping a week off has helped Josh Allen mentally prepare for his return to the starting job.
Allen last started at quarterback for the Bills in Week 6 against the Texans, a game that saw him complete 10 passes for 84-yards before being benched for Nathan Peterman due to an elbow injury.
It’s been six weeks in between drinks now for the rookie, and although the 3-7 Jaguars are hardly the force they used to be, Jacksonville’s defence picked a great time to return to form last week in their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers.
Planning for one of the top secondary’s in the league is tough, but the Bills aren’t prepared to take it easy with Allen. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has thrown the book at the rookie, setting out an entire gameplan just like he would for his veteran starters.
Make of that what you will, but there’s no doubt Allen has Buffalo fans feeling optimistic. Out of Peterman, Matt Barkley and Derek Anderson, Allen has the most arm strength and playmaking ability of the lot.
It’s worth keeping in mind that the Bills are 4-2 at home against the Jaguars, so if you’re feeling bold, a straight up bet makes sense. For those sensible punters, the Total has resulted in the Over in four of Buffalo’s last six games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7):
Shoulda, coulda, woulda – that’s been the story of the Jaguars season to date.
Jacksonville held a 16-6 lead over the Steelers in the third quarter last week, but somehow gave up two unanswered touchdowns, one of which came in the final five seconds of the game, to go on to lose 20-16.
The loss highlighted two things – 1. The defence is still very good, and 2. Blake Bortles has to go.
Star cornerback Jalen Ramsay played the game of his life taking away two interceptions on what was a tough day shadowing Antonio Brown. The Jags also held the Steelers to just three of 11 third down conversions, and only 22 minutes of possession.
What let the Jags down though, was Bortles. Keep in mind, this is the same team that passed on Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 Draft, and after another 104-yard, touchdown-less day last week, Bortles’ time has to be up.
As far as this week is concerned, the Jaguars will try and keep it simple against a Bills defence that has been pretty stingy against the pass. Given their losing streak, play it safe with the Over.
Tip: Back Over 37.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore 34 – Oakland 17
Baltimore Ravens (5-5):
Far from the biggest game of the week, but certainly one with huge implications for the future of the Ravens franchise.
As we’ve seen countless times before with quarterbacks, Joe Flacco’s injury has opened up a window of opportunity for young rookie Lamar Jackson, and as we all expected, the former Louisville standout has made the most of his time in the limelight.
Jackson led the Ravens to a crucial 24-21 divisional win over the Bengals last week behind 267 combined yards. To be fair, he failed to score a touchdown, and threw the ball 19 times compared to his 27 runs, but already, this once lifeless Ravens offence all of a sudden looks a bit more exciting.
Another win on Sunday against the Raiders, and it’s Flacco out, Jackson in, period. The Ravens have publicly said they will be throwing the ball whenever and wherever they can this week, and if the defence can limit Oakland to just 21 minutes of possession like they did against the Bengals, the AFC Wildcard won’t be out of the question after another home win.
Oakland Raiders (2-8):
The soap opera reached boiling point last week as head coach Jon Gruden and starting quarterback Derek Carr went toe-to-toe in a sideline scuffle (of words).
Somehow the Raiders pulled out a gutsy 23-21 win over the Arizona Cardinals, a victory that might be their last in this long lost season.
What we know about the Raiders is this: they won’t have much to work with. Wide receiver Brandon LaFell, Oakland’s last remaining go-to wide receiver, tore his achilles last week and has been ruled out for the season.
That means we can expect plenty of ground and pound from the Raiders in this game and going forward, just don’t expect to see Marshawn Lynch anytime soon. The 32-year old veteran has been ruled out for the rest of the season, leaving the running game firmly in the hands of Jalen Richard and Doug Martin.
Perhaps the only saving grace this week is the unknown about Lamar Jackson. Can Oakland stop him from making plays with his feet? Considering Oakland have allowed the second most rushing yards in the league, probably not. But if they do limit him in the air, they have every chance of keeping this game close.
Tip: Back the Raiders at the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.91
Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers (6-4):
Inconsistent, that’s probably the best word to describe the Panthers right now.
Carolina got off to a fast start last week against the Lions by scoring on their opening drive, but everything that came after was a major disappointment.
When Cam Newton is spreading the ball around and running a high-tempo offense, the Panthers are a treat. When they revert back to the same old screen pass game out to the flat to Christian McAffrey or a slant to D.J. Moore, it’s just too predictable.
Defensively the Panthers had no answer last week for Kerryon Johnson, so really, they were lucky he got injured.
The offense is the true problem here though, and it doesn’t help when one of your go-to wide receivers, Devin Funchess, drops four passes – or when your usually reliable field goal kicker misses a field goal and an extra point.
There’s a serious lack of creativity coming from the sidelines, and it’s hurting this team on third down.
Silly decisions to go for a game winning two-point conversion instead of opting to tie the game with an extra point cost the Panthers a chance (and perhaps a win) last week, so until we see something more reliable, you can’t think about backing them.
Seattle Seahawks (5-5):
The Seahawks survived another close shave against the Packers last week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and in the process, they may have learned a thing or two about their offense.
Not that we didn’t already know this, but Rashaad Penny is a future star. Before leaving the game with a minor injury, Penny pulled off two big runs against Green Bay showcasing the athleticism and tackle-breaking talent he was known for in College.
It was also nice to see Doug Baldwin amongst the action after what has so far been an injury plagued season. Russell Wilson faced a tough day in the pocket, but when he did get time to throw, he often looked Baldwin’s way to connect for 52-yards and a score.
The Seahawks are 3-3 on the road this year, with their last trip to Carolina resulting in a 31-24 loss back in 2016.
Given not only how their defence has performed, but also their special teams, Seattle look great value this week. A win here could mean the difference between a Wild Card seed or going home early for either of these teams, so there’s plenty to play for.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Win @ $2.50
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
NY Jets 13 – New England 27
New York Jets (3-7):
The Jets are on a four-game skid and with New England coming to town, the news of Sam Darnold’s foot doesn’t sound good.
Darnold didn’t practice all week in the lead up to Sunday’s game, leaving veteran Josh McCown to take his place for the second week in a row.
The good news is the Jets have had a bye week to lick their wounds, but there’s still plenty of big names alongside Darnold set to miss this classic AFC East rivalry game.
Wide receiver Robby Anderson, one of McCown’s favourite targets, hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle injury, while Quincy Enunwa has been limited with a similar diagnosis.
Running back Isaiah Crowell is back to full health, so that’s encouraging, but it’s tough to see the Jets keeping up with New England with so many pieces missing. The only solace is New York’s 5-0 at the line when playing New England at home.
New England Patriots (7-3):
You just know Bill Belichick has lost plenty of sleep following the Patriots’ miserable loss to the Titans a fortnight ago.
New England have had a bye week to stew on their shortcomings, but they’ve also had bigger concerns at the forefront of their mind with Tom Brady reportedly struggling with a knee injury.
It’s very unlikely the future Hall of Famer will miss this game, however it does add another element of intrigue considering the Jets are one of the better teams at applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
As we saw against the Titans, when Brady is pressured up the middle he’s forced into making quick and inaccurate throws. He failed to throw a single touchdown against Tennessee, and although the Jets defence is far less formidable compared to the Titans, the trip to a cold Metlife Stadium might pose a few challenges.
What the Patriots do have going for them though, is time. Since 2003, New England are 22-4 following the bye, and with the Jets basically playing second stringers on offense, New England’s sloppy secondary should enjoy a fairly easy day against the pass.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Beat The Line (-8 Points) @ $1.91
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Monday 26 November, 5:00am, Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia 25 – NY Giants 22
Philadelphia Eagles (4-6):
Are the Super Bowl champs dead in the water?
Kinda looks that way, especially following their devastating 48-17 loss to the Saints last week.
We’ve been saying it for a while, but the Eagles don’t seem to have it this year. Carson Wentz has been accused of trying to do too much with the ball, but it’s hard to fault the third year pro when you consider the offensive line in front of him continues to deteriorate.
At wide receiver, things are a far cry from a season ago. Alshon Jeffery is one of the best jump-ball guys in the league, but he’s caught only 37 passes and four touchdowns all year.
Likewise, the lack of a running game continues to cause issues for Philly. Wendell Smallwood is a pass-catcher, not a runner, and no matter how hard the Eagles try and sell us Josh Adams, he’s simply not starting material.
The Eagles now have a chance this week to salvage something against their division foes. Philly are 5-1 in their last six home games against the Giants, and just like last year’s 34-29 encounter, this one should be equally as close.
New York Giants (3-7):
After starting the season 1-7, Odell Beckham Jr. famously stated back in October that the Giants could win out and still make the playoffs.
That last bit seems unlikely, but hey, the Giants are undefeated throughout November, so that counts for something, right?
You can’t read too much into last week’s win over the Bucs, although it was nice to watch Saquon Barkley light it up for 152 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns.
Eli Manning is also worth a mention here, because to be perfectly honest, he’s been solid over the last fortnight. Last week the two-time Super Bowl champ threw for 231-yards and a pair of touchdowns against Tampa’s sloppy secondary. Whether or not he can repeat that this week in Philly is another thing.
The Giants are 1-8 in their last nine games when playing the Eagles, but keep in mind, six of Philly’s 10 games this year have resulted in the Under.
Tip: Back Under 47 Total Points @ $1.87
Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals
Monday 26 November, 8:05am, StubHub Center
LA Chargers 45 – Arizona 10
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3):
It figures that when Joey Bosa finally returns, the Chargers find a way to lose.
In what was a scrappy affair, the Chargers gave up five key plays to the Broncos in the final two minutes to set up a game-winning field goal from the 34-yard line.
LA have become well known for their midseason chokes, and this was no exception. With nothing more than a Wild Card spot on the line, the Chargers were shaping up as a serious dark horse in the playoff picture, but now, who knows.
Fortunately, this week’s home game against the Cardinals is a chance to turn things around. Not surprisingly, the Chargers have opened as a 13-point favourite, and as their 4-1 home record against the Cardinals suggest, they should have no trouble getting back to winning ways.
Arizona Cardinals (2-8):
There’s still a lot to like about rookie quarterback Josh Rosen despite his two interceptions game against the Raiders last week.
Aside from David Johnson, the talent that surrounds Rosen is mediocre, which makes it tough matching up against an elite defensive side like the Chargers this week.
Expect head coach Steve Wilks to call a conservative game this week on the road, which should play into Johnson’s hands.
Even so, the simple fact that the Cardinals have won only three of their last 10 games against LA makes them impossible to back.
Tip: Back the Chargers 7-12 @ $4.33
Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
Monday 26 November, 8:25am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 27 – Miami 24
Indianapolis Colts (5-5):
The Colts are the most exciting team in the league right now, even if they miss the playoffs.
Indy’s offensive line seems to grow stronger each week, which only adds to the delight of watching Andrew Luck hit wide open receivers from the comfort of the pocket.
Last week the Colts annihilated the Titans 38-10, adding further intrigue to the AFC South playoff picture with six weeks remaining.
The Wild Card isn’t out of the question, and as the favourites this week, this is a game that could see the Colts enter Week 13 with a winning record.
Miami Dolphins (5-5):
Ryan Tannehill will return to the starting role for the Dolphins this week, but that’s about all you can say.
Health wise Tannehill is far from 100%, which is far from ideal ahead of this weekend’s trip to face a ravenous Colts defence.
The Dolphins are 6-2 in their last eight trips to face the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, however they haven’t travelled to Indy since 2013. One of these sub .500 teams will emerge as a contender and one will emerge as a pretender, and right now for the Dolphins, it’s the latter.
Tip: Back the Colts to Beat the Line (-8 Points) @ $1.91
Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 26 November, 8:25am, Broncos Stadium
Denver 24 – Pittsburgh 17
Denver Broncos (4-6):
The Broncos know their season is over, but unlike many other teams, they’ve chosen to steer clear from tanking and instead focus on winning as many games as possible.
That strategy worked a treat last week against the Chargers, in large part thanks to some last minute heroics from Case Keenum to drive down the field and place the ball at the 34 for the game-winning field goal.
Another part of Denver’s game that seems to go unnoticed is the defence. In particular, rookie linebacker Bradley Chubb currently ranks 10th in the league with nine sacks to his name, and is quickly learning to disrupt even the best quarterbacks at the pro level.
The Broncos face a tough assignment this week with the Steelers coming to town. We know Pittsburgh can be turnover prone, but if Denver fail to cover the Steelers’ plethora of wide receivers, this game won’t be close.
Denver have fared middle of the pack against the pass, however they do rank seventh in the league in sacks. Both of those factors should help the Broncos keep this close.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2-1):
The Steelers are in firm control of their destiny now as the focus shifts to potentially securing home field advantage in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh’s record on the road speaks for itself, 15-1-1. The Steelers are free from the Le’Veon Bell saga for the rest of the season, and with it, comes a clear mind for an offense that pulled off an unbelievable comeback last week against the Jaguars.
Mike Tomlin’s team are potentially looking seven in a row, and if they are to win this game, all they need to do is shut down the run. Phillip Lindsay turned up the heat on the Chargers last week for 79-yards and two scores, but even so, Pittsburgh’s interior defence is more than capable of handling the rookie.
At the line Pittsburgh are 4-1-1 on the road this year which makes them the only worthwhile play after scoring 20 unanswered points last week.
Tip: Back the Steelers to Beat The Line (-3 Points) @ $1.91
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Monday 26 November, 12:20pm, US Bank Stadium
Minnesota 24 – Green Bay 17
Green Bay Packers (4-5-1):
It’s crunch time in Green Bay right now, and even with a 30% chance to still make the playoffs, it looks as though the Packers are heading toward’s a serious offseason rebuild from a coaching perspective.
Last week’s loss against the Seahawks was entirely on Mike McCarthy. The decision to punt on 4th and 2 cost Aaron Rodgers one last drive, a disappointing ending to a game that the Packers had every right to win.
The NFC North is slipping away from the Packers, making this key divisional game all the more important. The Vikings are one of the toughest teams to run the ball against, and to make matters worse, the Packers’ offence will have to cope with the noise of U.S. Bank Stadium.
Green Bay are 1-4-1 in their last six games against the Vikings. They should have had a win earlier this season at Lambeau, but failed to find an answer to Kirk Cousins’ late game heroics.
Minnesota Vikings (5-4-1):
The Vikings were less than impressive last week losing 25-20 on the road to the Bears.
Kirk Cousins played one of the worst games of his young career in the cold confines of Solider Field, but you can’t blame it entirely on the weather considering Khalil Mack harassed Minnesota’s offensive line all day.
The Packers defence isn’t quite as menancing as Chicago’s, however Blake Martinez and Clay Matthews know a thing or two about roughing up Cousins. Keep in mind it was Matthews’ roughing the passer call in Week 2 that offered the Vikings a chance to draw the game.
Minnesota will be hoping for a much bigger effort from Dalvin Cook this week after a silent effort against the Bears last week. They’ll also be relying on home field advantage and guys like Kyle Rudolph to contribute a little more in the receiving game.
There’s still plenty of football left to play, but it feels like the division is slipping away from Minnesota at 5-4-1. This is a must-win game if they are to keep touch with the Bears.
Tip: Back the Vikings 1-6 @ $3.70
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
Tuesday 27 November, 12:15pm, NRG Stadium
Houston 34 – Tennessee 17
Tennessee Titans (5-5):
The rollercoaster ride that is the Titans’ 2018 season continued last week losing 38-10 to the Colts.
Tennessee turned the ball over twice managing just 263-yards on offense, but it was the lack of discipline that cost the Titans big – they gave up eight penalties for 112-yards.
As far as big games go, this one is it. There’s serious playoff implications on the line for the Titans, and should they lose, you can just about count Tennessee out of the AFC Wildcard hunt.
The Titans are 4-9 in their last 13 games against the Texans and 0-5 on the road in Houston.
Houston Texans (7-3):
The Texans tied a franchise record last week by winning their seventh straight game, and all of a sudden, the team nobody thought anything of is one of the Top 4 teams in the AFC.
There’s lots to love about the Texans right now, especially on offense. A healthy Keke Coutee does wonders for quarterback Deshaun Watson, while J.J. Watt continues to emerge as a sneaky Defensive Player of the Year pick with 10 sacks to his name.
Houston love the short game, but sometimes they try to do too much. Watson still needs to develop some awareness in the pocket, because really, he was lucky not to have several passes picked last week.
Looking ahead to this game against the Titans, the Texans are undefeated in their last five games against Tennessee, however their 1-5 record at home against the spread suggests they have been less than kind to punters.
Tip: Back the Texans To Win 1-6
It is Thanksgiving in the United States and that means that we are treated to three games of NFL action on Friday morning.
It all begins when the Minnesota Vikings take on the Detroit Lions, it continues when the Dallas Cowboys try to return to winning form against the Los Angeles Chargers before the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants do battle in an NFC East battle.
We have analysed all three of those contests as well as every other game in the NFL this weekend and our complete 2017 NFL Week 12 tips can be found below.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Friday November 24, 4:30am, Ford Field
This is a huge game in the NFC North as a victory for the Minnesota Vikings would all but secure them the title.
Minnesota have won six games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Detroit Lions as a clear favourite.
The Vikings have won their past three games as away favourites and they are 2-1 against the line in this scenario.
Detroit have kept themselves in the NFC North Division Title hunt with three straight victories, but this it their toughest assignment in over a month.
The Lions have won only one of their past four games as home underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
Minnesota are great value to continue their winning streak and they can cover the line of 2.5 points comfortably.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers
Friday November 24, 8:30am, AT&T Bank Stadium
This may be a Dallas Cowboys home game, but the Los Angeles Chargers will start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Chargers returned to winning form against the Buffalo Bills, but they had more to do with the putrid performance of Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman.
Los Angeles have won only two of their past six games as favourites for a clear loss and their record away from home is not particularly strong.
Dallas have struggled without Ezekiel Elliot, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee in the past fortnight, but Smith should return and the Chargers are nowhere near as strong as the Atlanta Falcons or the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Cowboys have won five of their past nine games in front of their home fans, but they have lost their past three games as underdogs.
There is no value at the current price of the Chargers, but you can’t trust the Cowboys off their recent form.
Washington Redskins vs New York Giants
Friday November 24, 12:30pm, FedEx Field
The Washington Redskins are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NFL.
Washington gave up a big lead against the New Orleans Saints last weekend and they have now lost four of their past five games.
The Redskins have won only one of their past three games as home favourites and they are 1-6 against the line in front of their home fans.
The New York Giants produced their best performance of the season to record a huge upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs and they will take plenty of confidence from that effort.
New York have won two of their past eight games as away underdogs and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
The Giants have won six of their past eight games against Washington and there is no as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests.
Back New York To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
The Cleveland Browns are still chasing their first win of the season and they are clear underdogs to beat the Cincinnati Bengals.
It is impossible to back Cleveland – they have won only one game over the past two seasons and they have covered the line in only one of their past six games as away underdogs.
Cincinnati returned to winning form with a narrow victory over the Denver Broncos and they have won their past six games against the Browns.
The Bengals have won three of their past five games as home favourites and they are a losing 2-3 against the line in this scenario.
Cincinnati should win this clash, but there is no value at their current price.
New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers
Monday November 27, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
The Carolina Panthers have won three games in a row and they will go into this clash with the New York Jets as clear favourites.
Carolina hit their biggest low of the season against the Chicago Bears a month ago, but they have improved on both sides of the football since.
The Panthers have won four of their past seven games as away favourites for a narrow loss and they are a middling 3-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
New York were beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend and they have now won only one of their past five games.
The Jets have won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a big profit and they are a most impressive 7-1 against the line in this scenario.
New York always improve in front of their home fans and they can cover the line against the Panthers.
Back New York To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points)
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
The Tennessee Titans remain one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and need to keep winning to stay in touch with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Tennessee had their winning run ended by the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend and this is a big test for Marcus Mariota after he failed to fire in that clash.
The Titans have won three of their past five games as away favourites and they are only 1-4 against the line in this scenario for a clear loss.
Indianapolis went into the bye on the back of a small loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was one of their best performances of the season.
The Colts have lost their past three games as home underdogs, but they are 2-1 against the line in this scenario.
Indianapolis have improved in a big way over the past month and they are capable of giving the Titans a scare in this clash.
Back Indianapolis To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The Atlanta Falcons are extremely short-priced favourites to beat their NFC South rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta have got themselves back into the Playoffs hunt with two excellent wins over the Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks and on their recent form they should win this clash comfortably.
The Falcons have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites and they are a profitable 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
Tampa Bay have recorded two wins on the trot over the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins, but this is obviously a much tougher challenge.
The Buccaneers have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs and they are also a losing betting play against the line in this scenario.
Atlanta have been excellent in recent weeks and if they can replicate that sort of form they will prove too strong for the Buccaneers.
Back Atlanta To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Gillette Stadium
The New England Patriots are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NFL and the line is a huge 15.5 points.
New England were dominant against the Oakland Raiders last weekend and they have now won six games on the trot.
The Patriots have won 17 of their past 19 games as favourites and they are 14-5 against the line as the punter’s elect.
Miami have now lost four games in a row and their defence has really struggled in recent weeks.
The Dolphins have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs, but their record against the line in this scenario is poor.
New England have won four of their past five games against Miami and three of those wins have been greater than the line of 15.5 points.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-15.5 Points)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Lincoln Financial Field
The Philadelphia Eagles are another very short-priced favourite in the NFL this weekend.
Philadelphia have been nothing short of outstanding in the NFL this season and they were dominant against their NFC East rivals the Dallas Cowboys last weekend.
The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites and they are 6-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Chicago Bears have lost three games on the trot, but they were not disgraced against the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in recent weeks.
Chicago have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
Backing Philadelphia has been a profitable betting play in the NFL all season long and there is no reason to jump off this weekend.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
Monday November 27, 5:00am, Arrowhead Stadium
This is a big game for the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs started the season with five straight wins, but they have now lost four of their past five games and they were very poor against the New York Giants last weekend.
Kansas City have won five of their past eight games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins.
The Buffalo Bills made a quarterback change last weekend and it could not have gone worse for rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman.
Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half of the game and was replaced by Tyrod Taylor.
The Bills are yet to announce who will start under centre for this clash, but it would be something of a surprise if they did not return to Taylor.
Buffalo have lost one of their past five games as away underdogs and their record against the line is just as poor.
Kansas City will never have a better chance to return to winning form and they should be able to cover the line in the process.
Back Kansas City To Beat The Line (-10 Points)
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday November 27, 8:05am, Levi's Stadium
The San Francisco 49ers went into their bye on the back of their first win of the season, but they will still start this clash with the Seattle Seahawks as clear favourites.
Seattle had their chances to beat the Atlanta Falcons, but a missed field goal from Blair Walsh ended their comeback and they remain a game behind the Los Angeles Rams.
The Seahawks have won three of their past five games as away favourites for a loss and they are only 1-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
San Francisco have been a losing betting play across just about every metric over the past two seasons and it is impossible to back them with any confidence.
Seattle should win this game comfortably, but their is no value at their current price.
Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Monday November 27, 8:25am, O.Co Coliseum
There was plenty expected of both the Oakland Raiders and the Denver Broncos heading into the NFL season, but they have both been extremely poor this season.
The Raiders were no match for the New England Patriots last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the Broncos as clear favourites.
Oakland have won four of their past six games as favourites and they are a middling 3-3 against the line in this situation.
Denver have now lost six games on the trot and they have made big changes – offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has been fired and Paxton Lynch will get his chance at quarterback.
The Broncos have lost their past four games as away underdogs and they have failed to cover the lines in each of these games.
It is impossible to trust either of these teams and this is a game that I am staying out of from a betting perspective.
Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints
Monday November 27, 8:25am, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
This is one of the biggest games of the weekend.
The Los Angeles Rams went down to the Minnesota Vikings last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the New Orleans Saints as favourites.
Los Angeles have won only three of their past six games as home favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
The New Orleans Saints pulled off a big comeback to beat the Washington Redskins and they have now won eight races on the trot.
New Orleans have won two of their past five games as away underdogs for a small profit and they are 3-2 against the line in this situation.
The Rams may still be a touch overrated and the Saints are one of the best value bets of the weekend.
Back New Orleans To Win @ $2.25
Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday November 27, 8:25am, University Of Phoenix Stadium
The Jacksonville Jaguars remain on top of the AFC South and they will start this clash with the Arizona Cardinals as clear favourites.
Jacksonville made it four wins on the trot with a fighting victory over the Cleveland Browns and their dreams of return to the NFL Playoffs are getting closer and closer.
The Jaguars have won two of their past three games as away favourites and their record against the line is the same.
Arizona were beaten as favourites against the Houston Texans last weekend and they are a very tough side to trust from a betting perspective.
The Cardinals have won only two of their past eight games as underdogs and they are 2-1-5 against the line in this situation.
Jacksonville can continue their winning streak and will cover the line in the process.
Back Jacksonville To Beat The Line (-4 Points)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers
Monday November 27, 12:30pm, Heinz Field
The Pittsburgh are the third side in the NFL this weekend that are priced at $1.10 or shorter.
Pittsburgh made it five wins on the trot with a massive victory over the Tennessee Titans and they have found their best form in the past month.
The Steelers have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
The Green Bay Packers produced their worst performance of the Brett Hundley-era and they failed to score a point against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend.
There is no doubt that Pittsburgh should win this game comfortably, but the line of 14 points is excessive and this is a game that I am happy to stay out of.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Tuesday November 28, 12:30pm, M&T Bank Stadium
The Baltimore Ravens have struggled for consistency this season, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
Baltimore have won two of their past three games to nil against the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers and in between that they were beaten by the Tennessee Titans.
The Ravens will start this clash as home favourites and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
Houston returned to winning form against the Arizona Cardinals last weekend, but the Ravens represent a completely different challenge.
Arizona have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
The Baltimore defence should have a field day against Tom Savage and the Texans offence and line of seven points will not be enough.
Back Baltimore To Beat The Line (-7 Points)
It is Thanksgiving weekend in the NFL and that means there is an absolute feast of football on Friday morning.
The action begins when the Detroit Lions face the Minnesota Vikings before the Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Redskins and the Indianapolis Colts play the Pittsburgh Steelers.
There are plenty of interesting games set to take place right across the weekend and there are a number of crucial clashes between divisional rivals on Monday morning.
The final game of the week takes place on Monday when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers and you can find our tips for every game below.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Friday November 25, 3:30am, Ford Field
Detroit Lions 16 - Minnesota Vikings 13
This is a crucial game in the NFC North and the first of a big Thanksgiving Triple Header.
Detroit have won five of their past six games to take control of the NFC North and they will go into this clash as clear favourites,
The Lions have proven to be a tough team to trust from a betting perspective this season and they have won four of their past five games as home favourites, while they have an identical record against the line.
Minnesota were finally able to end their losing streak when they beat the Arizona Cardinals last weekend and this is almost a must-win clash.
The Vikings have won three of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they also have an excellent record of 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
This is set to be a very interesting price, but the market looks to have got it just about right and I am happy to take out from a betting perspective.
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins
Friday November 25, 7:30am, AT&T Bank Stadium
Dallas Cowboys 31 - Washington Redskins 26
The rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins is one of the most historic in the NFL and this is a traditional Thanksgiving clash.
The Dallas Cowboys are the form team in the NFL and they will go into this clash on the back of a nine-match winning streak.
Dallas have now won three of their past four games as home favourites and they have an identical record against the line in this scenario.
Washington have won two games on the trot and they are on track to qualify for the NFL Playoffs as a wildcard.
The Redskins have an incredible record of 5-1 as away underdogs over the past 12 months and they are 6-0 against the line in this scenario.
There is never much between these two teams when they do battle and Washington are a great bet to beat the line with a start of seven points.
Back Washington To Beat The Line (+7 Points)
Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans
Monday November 28, 4:00am, Soldier Field
Chicago Bears 21 - Tennessee Titans 27
The Tennessee Titans are still in the NFL Playoffs hunt and they will start this clash with the Chicago Bears as favourites.
This will be the first time that Tennessee have started an away game as favourite in the past 12 months and their record on the road during this period is very poor.
Chicago were not disgraced against the New York Giants and they will likely go into this clash with Matt Barkley under centre following the likely season-ending injury suffered by Jay Cutler.
The Bears have actually won two of their past three games as home underdogs and they have an identical record against the line.
There is not as much between these two teams as the market suggests and I am keen to back the Bears with a start of five points.
Back Chicago To Beat The Line (+5 Points)
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday November 28, 4:00am, New Era Field
Buffalo Bills 28 - Jacksonville Jaguars 21
The Buffalo Bills returned to winning form against the Cincinnati Bengals and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Buffalo have been a highly inconsistent 3-1 as home favourites over the past 12 months and they have an identical record against the line.
This has been a season to forget for Jacksonville and they go into this clash on the back of five straight losses.
The Jaguars have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a very average 2-1-5.
Buffalo should be able to record back-to-back wins and they are good enough to cover the line of 7.5 points.
Back Buffalo To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Monday November 28, 4:00am, MT&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens 19 - Cincinnati Bengals 14
This is a crucial game for both sides and basically a must-win clash for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Baltimore will go into this clash as clear favourites after going down to the Dallas Cowboys last weekend.
The Ravens have two just two of their past four games as home favourites for a loss and their record against the line is identical.
Cincinnati have not won a game for almost a month and their chances of qualifying for the NFL Playoffs are falling away quickly.
The Bengals have won just one of their past four games as away underdogs and their record against the line is also 2-2.
This is another clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals
Monday November 28, 4:00am, Georgia Dome
Atlanta Falcons 38 - Arizona Cardinals 19
The Atlanta Falcons suffered a defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as favourites.
Atlanta have struggled badly as home favourites over the past 12 months – they have won just one of their past five games in this scenario and their record against the line is an extremely poor 0-5.
The poor season of the Arizona Cardinals continued last weekend and their record as away underdogs does not inspire confidence.
They have lost their past three games as away underdogs and their record against the line is identical.
These are two teams that are extremely tough to trust from a betting perspective and I will be letting this game go through to the keeper.
Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants
Monday November 28, 4:00am, FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns 13 - New York Giants 27
The chances of the Cleveland Browns finishing this season winless are increasing as we get further into the season and they will start this clash as clear underdogs.
Cleveland have lost their past seven games as home underdogs and they have not covered the line in any of their games in this situation.
The New York Giants have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they have still been able to record five wins on the trot.
They have won three of their past four games as away favourites for a clear profit and they really shouldn’t have a problem putting up a big score against the Browns.
The line of seven points will not be anywhere near enough and they are a great bet to beat the line comfortably.
Back New York Giants To Beat The Line (-7 Points)
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams
Monday November 28, 4:00am, Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans Saints 49 - Los Angeles Rams 21
The New Orleans Saints have lost two games on the trot, but they will start this clash with the Los Angeles Rams as clear favourites.
New Orleans have been a tough team to trust from a betting proposition this season and they have won just two of their past six games as home favourites, while they have an identical record against the line.
The Rams have won just one of their past six games and their first season in Los Angeles has been one to forget.
Surprisingly, Los Angeles have actually won three of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit and their record against New Orleans is excellent.
The Rams are more than capable of returning to winning form and the $3.60 currently available is excellent value.
Back Los Angeles To Win @ $3.60
Miami Dolphins vs San Franciso 49ers
Monday November 28, 4:00am, New Miami Stadium
Miami Dolphins 31 - San Francisco 49ers 24
The Miami Dolphins have got themselves back into NFL Playoffs calcuations with five wins on the trot and they will start this clash with the San Francisco 49ers as clear favourites.
Miami have now won three of their past five games as home favourites, but they are still a very poor 1-4 against the line in this scenario.
San Francisco put up a credible effort against the New England Patriots last weekend, but they were still unable to come away with the victory.
The 49ers have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line is just as bad.
These are two teams that are tough to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
Houston Texans vs San Diego Chargers
Monday November 28, 4:00am, NRG Stadium
Houston Texans 13 - San Diego Chargers 21
The market is currently finding it very tough to split these two teams.
The San Diego Chargers went down to the Miami Dolphins last weekend, but they are still set to start their clash with the San Diego Chargers as narrow favourites.
This will be the first away game that the Chargers have started as favourites in over 12 months and their record away from home is a very poor 2-7.
Houston had their chances against the Oakland Raiders, but were unable to get the job done in the final quarter.
The Texans have won seven of their past nine games in front of their home fans and there were some positive signs in their defeat at the hands of the Raiders.
Houston should probably start this clash as favourites and there is genuine value at their current price of $2.05.
Back Houston To Win @ $2.05
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday November 28, 7:05am, Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 - Seattle Seahawks 5
Seattle have won three games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as clear favourites.
The Seahawks have an excellent record as away favourites over the past 12 months and they have won four of their past five games in this scenario, while they are 3-2 against the line.
Tampa Bay made it two wins on the trot with their upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs and they have played some excellent football in the past fortnight.
The Bucaneers have won just one of their past three games as away underdogs and their record against the line is identical.
Seattle should win this game comfortably and the line of six points will not be anywhere near enough.
Back Seattle To Beat The Line (-6 Points)
Oakland Raiders vs Carolina Panthers
Monday November 28, 7:25am, Oakland Coliseum
Oakland Raiders 35 - Carolina Panthers 32
The Oakland Raiders are the form team in the AFC and they will start this clash with the Carolina Panthers as clear favourites.
Oakland made it four wins on the trot with their come from behind win over the Houston Texans and they have won three of their past four games as home favourites, but they are 1-3 against the line in this scenario.
Carolina returned to winning form against the New Orleans Saints, but desperately need to keep on winning to remain in the Playoff hunt.
This is the first away game that the Panthers have started as underdogs in over a year, but their record away from home has been poor from a betting standpoint.
The market looks to have got this clash just about right, but there is still plenty of value in the Total Points betting market.
The over has saluted in six of the past eight home games played by the Raiders and the Panthers have also been an overs team this season.
Back Over 50.5 Points
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Monday November 28, 7:25am, Mile High
Denver Broncos 27 - Kansas City Chiefs 30
This is a crucial game for both these teams in the AFC West.
Denver went into their bye on the back of a narrow victory over the New Orleans Saints and they will start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Broncos have won six of their past eight games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they are just 3-1-4 against the line in this scenario.
Kansas City had their winning run ended by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend and must win this game to keep in touch with their division leaders.
The Chiefs have won one of their past three games as away underdogs for a loss and their record against the line is identical.
This is another clash that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Monday November 28, 11:30am, MetLife Stadium
New York Jets 17 - New England Patriots 22
There is no love lost between these two franchises and this is sure to be another spiteful clash.
It is no surprise that the New England Patriots will start this clash as dominant favourites after another convincing performance against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Patriots have not been that impressive on the road in the past 12 months and they have won just five of their past nine games as away favourites for a clear loss, while they have the same record against the line.
New York have won just two of their past eight games and they went into their bye week on the back of a poor offensive effort against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Jets have won just one of their past three games as home underdogs for a clear loss, while they have the same record against the line.
New England should prove far too strong for their divisional rivals and a great bet to cover the line.
- Back New England To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
Tuesday November 29, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles 13 - Green Bay Packers 27
Both these teams are quickly falling out of the NFL Playoffs picture and this is a must-win clash.
Philadelphia went down to Seattle last weekend, but they will still start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Eagles have won three of their past four games as home favourites for a clear profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Green Bay have now lost four games on the trot and their defense hit a new low in their disastrous performance against the Washington Redskins last weekend.
The Packers have won just one of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they have been a narrow winning proposition against the line in this scenario.
It is impossible to trust the Packers after their horrid last start effort and Philadelphia should be able to return to winning form.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-4 Points)