With the NRL regular season nearing the halfway mark and State of Origin almost upon us, Round 11 serves up a buffet of critical match-ups.
Ladder-leading Canterbury take on Sydney Roosters on Friday night, Cronulla host Melbourne in a Saturday blockbuster and Wests Tigers will be desperate to bounce back from last week’s disaster when they take on South Sydney on Sunday.
Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels
Friday May 16, 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The NRL Round 11 opener already has a do-or-die feel about it as bottom-four battlers Newcastle and Parramatta lock horns.
The 3-6 Knights bounced back from a five-match losing streak with a big Magic Round win over Souths, but they surrendered any momentum by inexplicably coughing up a 20-0 halftime lead at home to the struggling Titans – caving late in a 24-20 defeat.
Pressure continues to pile up on an out-and-sorts Kalyn Ponga, but Newcastle’s problems run far deeper.
Last-placed Parramatta have shown genuine promise in their back-to-back losses to Cronulla (28-18) and Dolphins (20-16), looking far better with Mitch Moses back in the saddle. The No.7’s return has also helped the likes of Dylan Brown find their feet again.
Recruits Josh Addo-Carr, Dylan Walker and Isaiah Iongi continue to shine – but at 2-7, the Top 8 is getting further and further away for the Eels.
Fletcher Hunt will debut for the Knights in the place of the injured Greg Marzhew, while Leo Thompson has also been ruled out with Thomas Cant joining the bench. Zac Lomax is back in a huge boost for the Eels, replacing the injured Bailey Simonsson; Toni Mataele is into the 17 for Charlie Guymer.
The Knights snapped a six-match losing streak against the Eels in the teams’ sole 2024 clash, a 34-26 result in Newcastle in Round 17 that saw left-side duo Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew both score two tries.
Brown’s impending $13 million exit to Newcastle in 2026 adds another element to this clash at McDonald Jones Stadium, but expect Moses to prove the difference in an encounter between two otherwise rudderless outfits.
Tip: Back the Eels to Win @ $2.15
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ISAIAH IONGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.67
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters
Friday May 16, 8:00pm, Accor Stadium
Outright competition leader Canterbury-Bankstown is coming off arguably its best win yet as it prepares to take on a Sydney Roosters side searching for a third straight win after a Round 10 bye.
The wind went out of the Bulldogs’ 6-0 start via a big loss to the Broncos in Round 9, but after regrouping with a comfortable Magic Round victory over the Titans they pulled off a stunning 32-20 win in Canberra after trailing 20-0 at halftime.
Stephen Crichton and Viliame Kikau had their hands all over the revival as the Bulldogs raced in six tries in 27 minutes.
Something of a forgotten team in the mix, the 4-5 Roosters went into the bye off an Anzac Day demolition of the Dragons and a 36-26 Magic Round win over the Dolphins – with James Tedesco in irrepressible form.
The Bulldogs’ only change sees Harry Hayes move into he starting side for the injured Jaeman Salmon and debutant Luke Smith join the bench. Lindsay Collins is back on the bench for the Roosters.
After a long period of Roosters dominance, the Bulldogs have split the past four encounters with their archrivals. The Bulldogs snared a 30-26 upset in Round 5 at Accor Stadium last year, while the Roosters hit back 26-8 on the Central Coast in Round 16.
The Roosters have produced some decent wins – and some horrible losses. They’re hard to trust against a team that has had one off day this season and defensively the sides are poles apart.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $1.95
SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / ROOSTERS UNDER 16.5 TOTAL POINTS / DANIEL TUPOU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATT BURTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.08
Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors
Saturday May 17, 3:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
The Warriors return to Suncorp Stadium for the second time in three weeks, chasing a fifth straight win against a Dolphins side eager to string some victories together themselves.
The surprise-packet of the NRL, the Warriors are outright second with a 7-2 record – despite boasting a for-and-against of just +1. But they keep grinding teams down and closing out tight games.
They’ve been held try-less in the second half of their last two games, yet held off the Cowboys 30-26 (after leading 30-12) at Magic Round and the Dragons 15-14 (after leading 14-0) in Wollongong. Luke Metcalf was the headliner in both but Erin Clark, Mitch Barnett and Leka Halasima have been immense.
The 4-6 Dolphins pulled out of a two-game skid to outlast Parramatta 20-16 in a Thursday night nail-biter in Round 10. Herbie Farnworth was on fire in the wing, while Isaiya Katoa continues to develop and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has certainly shaken off his early-season malaise.
The Dolphins have kept the same 17, while the Warriors have been boosted by the return of James Fisher-Harris. Jackson Ford and Bunty Afoa have been ruled out, with Sam Healey the new face on the bench.
The clubs have split their four clashes to date, with the home side winning on each occasion. In 2024, a shorthanded Warriors team rallied from 10 points down at Mt Smart to win 24-20, while the Dolphins won a 32-30 rollercoaster in golden point via a booming Sean O’Sullivan field goal.
The travel factor could start wearing the Warriors down – they have played just one of their last six in Auckland – but the JFH factor in a high-performing pack is more compelling than the Dolphins advantage in speed and strike in the back-five.
The over appeals in this one with three of the Dolphins’ last four games producing 62-plus points. Luke Metcalf has scored six tries in the Warriors last six games (and the first try in the past two rounds) while the Dolphins will look to target a shaky Dallin Watene-Zelezniak’s wing
Tip: Back Over 48.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: WARRIORS WIN / JACK BOSTOCK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE METCALF ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DOLPHINS OVER 22.5 TOTAL POINTS @ $14.69
North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday May 17, 5:30pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
A pivotal Townsville encounter awaits as North Queensland looks to build off the promise of a golden point draw against Penrith and Manly strives to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Cronulla.
The Cowboys – who headed into last weekend 4-4 after a 30-26 Magic Round loss to the Warriors – showed plenty of character to claw back from 30-18 down and force Penrith into golden point with two late tries.
The match finished in a draw but there was something of a moral victory in it for Todd Payten’s side, for whom the mercurial Scott Drinkwater was a standout.
Manly is hard to make sense of, losing four of their last five to slip to a 4-5 record. They beat Penrith before the Magic Round bye but crashed 30-14 to Cronulla at home last Sunday – after drawing level from 14-0 down.
The Cowboys have moved Jaxon Purdue to five-eighth with Tom Dearden at halfback, while Zac Laybutt makes a long-awaited return in the centres. The Sea Eagles have moved Jake Trbojevic back to lock, Jazz Tevaga to hooker, Ethan Bullemor to prop and Jake Simpkin to the bench along with Caleb Navale.
The Sea Eagles have won six of their last eight against the Cowboys, including a 21-20 golden point eclipse in Townsville in their only 2024 encounter as Daly Cherry-Evans provided the match-winning strike.
In Round 1 at 4 Pines Park, Manly obliterated North Queensland early before taking the foot off the gas in a 42-12 cruise.
The Cowboys’ only loss in four home games in 2025 was to Cronulla in Round 2, scoring 30-plus points in all three games at Queensland Country Bank Stadium since.
The Sea Eagles are missing something – whether it’s anything to do with the DCE saga is anyone’s guess – but this shapes as a tough road trip for the $2.25 underdogs, despite the backline firepower at Anthony Seibold’s disposal.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 @ $3.10
SGM: COWBOYS WIN / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOLUTAU KOULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.02
Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday May 17, 7:35pm, Sharks Stadium
Top-four hopefuls Cronulla and premiership favourites Melbourne resume their rivalry in the Shire, with both teams coming off statement wins in Round 10.
The 6-4 Sharks are fifth on the ladder and quietly going about their business after some early bumps, winning four of their last five. After accounting for Parramatta 28-18 in Magic Round, they overwhelmed Manly 30-14 at 4 Pines Park last Sunday.
Giving up a 14-0 lead was less than ideal, but the Sharks produced a rousing finish – with Nicho Hynes’ performance a huge plus, and Will Kennedy and Addin Fonua-Blake maintaining their elite form.
The 6-3 Storm have been stuck in a win-loss pattern for five matches, but after a heartbreaking golden point loss to Canberra at Magic Round the 2024 runners-up obliterated Wests Tigers 64-0.
Ryan Papenhuyzen scored four tries among a club record 36 points, edging the incomparable Cam Munster for best-on-ground honours.
Siosifa Talakai comes onto the Sharks’ bench with Oregon Kaufusi moving into the starting side for the injured Tom Hazelton. Harry Grant lurks in the Storm’s reserves, with the only change to last week’s 17 Tui Kamikamica on the bench for Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
The Sharks have won two of their last four against the Storm, including a gutsy 25-18 upset at AAMI Park in Round 10 last year. But the Storm powered to an emphatic 37-10 qualifying final win in September on the back of a Harry Grant hat-trick.
While this is a gilt-edged opportunity for Cronulla to underline its credentials, Melbourne arguably heads to Sydney under more pressure after sprinkling some uncharacteristic collapses among their last four matches.
Expect a classic slugfest between the clubs as the Sharks play at home for the first time since Round 4.
Tip: Back Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.92
SGM: SHARKS +3.5 / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / KL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GRANT ANDERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $40.80
Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunday May 18, 2:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane and St George Illawarra are desperate to steer out of their current skids in this Saturday night clash.
The 5-5 Broncos are staring reality in the face now after losing four of their last five. They were steamrolled 32-8 after leading Penrith 8-0 early in Magic Round, then shelled a 14-0 advantage in a 22-14 defeat to down-on-form Souths.
Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan couldn’t be faulted for the platform they laid against the Rabbitohs, but the spine struggled for cohesion for the most part and Reece Walsh’s spark has been missed, despite his patchy form.
Controversial five-eighth Ezra Mam returns from an off-field suspension to replace injured Ben Hunt in the Broncos’ only change.
The Saints have dropped their last three games, though there were positives to be gleaned from a 15-14 loss to the Warriors after trailing 14-0. There is no question, however, that the team is lacking a quality chief shot-caller with too much resting on the shoulders of Clint Gutherson.
The Dragons have named Jack de Belin to start with Toby Couchman injured; Blake Lawrie joins the interchange.
The Dragons have won seven of the clubs’ last nine clashes, with Christian Tuipolotu bagging a hat-trick in a 30-26 victory at Suncorp Stadium in Round 19 last season.
St George Illawarra is a tempting option with an 11.5-point start, but Brisbane – potentially galvanised by the scrutiny surround Mam – should get a hard-earned result at home.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 1-12 @ $3.10
SGM: BRONCOS WIN / SELWYN COBBO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / TYRELL SLOAN TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $48.03
Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday May 18, 4:05pm, GIO Stadium
Previously in-form Canberra is coming off a collapse against the competition leaders, while previously battling Gold Coast produced an equally astounding revival on the road last week – setting up an intriguing Sunday afternoon encounter in the capital.
The Raiders blew a chance to go equal top last weekend at home, giving up a 20-0 halftime lead in a 32-20 loss to the Bulldogs as a five-match winning streak came to a jarring end.
In the exact inverse, the Titans snapped a five-match losing run by coming from 20-0 down at halftime to beat the Knights 24-20 in Newcastle – a club-record comeback engineered by Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, AJ Brimson and Alofiana Khan-Pereira.
Zac Hosking goes to the second-row with Matty Nicholson injured, while Corey Horsburgh is back in the side after a Magic Round head knock.
A massive in for the Titans with Kieran Foran to play his first game of 2025 from the bench, which also includes the returning Jaiman Joliffe in the place of Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui (concussion). Arama Hau drops out, while Phil Sami and Jojo Fifita swap positions out wide.
The Raiders have won nine of their last 10 against the Titans, including a 21-20 golden point win in Round 6 at GIO Stadium last year with ex-Gold Coast linchpin kicking the decisive field goal.
Canberra’s collapse is probably the worst thing that could happen to a Gold Coast looking for some momentum. The Raiders’ first home loss of 2025 stings and they will be acutely aware of the importance of responding ahead of a tough road trip to Auckland next week.
Despite tightening up the second half last week, the Titans’ porous defence – conceding 30-plus in their previous five matches – remains a concern for Des Hasler.
Tip: Back the Raiders Over 28.5 Total Points @ $1.92
SGM: RAIDERS -9.5 / OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.05
Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sunday May 18, 6:15pm, Campbelltown Sports Stadium
Beware the bounce-back as Wests Tigers aim to respond to a 64-0 rout in Melbourne when they welcome a Latrell Mitchell-inspired South Sydney to Campbelltown on Sunday.
The Tigers of three straight wooden spoons fame resurfaced at AAMI Park on Sunday, rolling over from the opening whistle in an 11-try drubbing – in stark contrast to handy wins over Cronulla and St George Illawarra in the previous fortnight.
The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, snapped a four-match losing streak in Round 10 thanks to Latrell Mitchell’s virtuoso brilliance – try-saving tackles, a 48-metre field goal and a last-minute try – as they came from 14-0 down to beat the Broncos 22-14.
The Tigers are set to get in-form centre Starford To’a back from a neck injury, with Brent Naden to go back to the bench. Fonua Pole’s knee injury brings Royce Hunt into the starting pack and Jack Bird returns on the bench.
Alex Johnston attempts another injury comeback on the wing for Souths at Fletcher Myers’ expense in the team’s only change.
Souths have won eight of the clubs’ last 10 matches, but the honours were shared in 2025. The Rabbitohs prevailed 42-28 in Round 20 in Gosford, before the Tigers responded 18-16 at Campbelltown just four weeks later.
Take last week out of the equation and the Tigers have been the more impressive of these Sydney rivals of late. Meanwhile, teams beaten by 40-plus points in 2024 went 4-4 straight up in their next match.
Tip: Back the Tigers to Win @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYCORER / STARFORD TO’A ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.46