On the back of an epic weekend of qualifying and elimination finals, the scene is set for two massive sudden-death semis in week two of the 2025 NRL finals on Saturday and Sunday.
Will the Raiders and Bulldogs bounce back from top-four defeats to grab a preliminary berth, or will the Sharks and Panthers keep their roll going?
After going down in heart-breaking golden point fashion last Sunday, minor premiers Canberra Raiders regroup with a second bite of the finals cherry at home to in-form Cronulla Sharks on Saturday night.
The 19-5 Raiders got on top in an enthralling battle against Brisbane Broncos to lead 28-12 with 15 minutes left.
But the Green Machine malfunctioned to concede three late tries and a penalty on the buzzer. Blowing multiple extra-time opportunities and having a golden point try pulled back, the Raiders went down via a 94th-minute field goal.
Kaeo Weekes, Hudson Young, Joe Tapine and Corey Horsburgh had huge games for the top-seeded team, but their lack of poise in the championship minutes was glaring.
The fifth-placed Sharks, meanwhile, were the only underdogs to get up in week one – subduing the dangerous Sydney Roosters 20-10 in a gritty display, just the club’s third win in 13 finals matches since winning the 2016 title.
A Ronaldo Mulitalo double late in the first half gave the Sharks a 12-6 lead, while Toby Rudolf barged over for the sealer with five minutes left. Addin Fonua-Blake’s platform was vital against a stacked Roosters pack, while Braydon Trindall picked up where he left off last September.
Both coaches have named unchanged 17s, though Tom Hazelton (knee) could be a late inclusion for the Sharks.
The teams played out an absolute thriller in Round 5 at GIO Stadium, the Raiders producing an extraordinary last-gasp try to Seb Kris to snatch a 24-20 result. Rival second-rowers Hudson Young and Briton Nikora were on fire with two tries apiece.
The Sharks carved out a 40-0 win in Canberra in 2024 – their only win in their last six visits to the capital.
Weekes has scored eight tries in the Raiders’ last nine games, while Ethan Strange boasts six from their last four outings. Mulitalo is on a tear for the Sharks with 10 tries from his last seven games.
The psychological toll of the Raiders’ agonising missed opportunity last week is a real X-factor here for a youthful squad, though they did go on a nine-match winning streak after blowing a 20-point lead at home against the Bulldogs in May.
The Sharks have now won eight of their last nine games. They are great front-runners, but it remains to be seen whether they can find an extra gear if the Raiders get off to a hot start. They have left Sydney just once since June (a narrow win over Souths in Gosford) and can expect a hostile reception.
No minor premier has gone out in straight sets since St George Illawarra in 2009. Canberra should be able to avoid that fate if they replicate the positive aspects of last week’s performance and put the late-game capitulation behind them.
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / RONALDO MULITALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SAVELIO TAMALE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ETHAN STRANGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $48.38
A packed house at Accor Stadium is set to witness this Sunday afternoon barnburner between third-placed Canterbury Bulldogs and seventh-placed, four-time defending premiers Penrith Panthers.
It’s a promoter’s dream with Ivan Cleary and former protégé Cameron Ciraldo in opposing coaches boxes, while the Bulldogs’ line-up is sprinkled with former Panthers grand final winners – despite the crushing injury blow to skipper Stephen Crichton.
The Bulldogs could take plenty out of their 26-18 loss to the Storm in Melbourne last Friday, hitting the front midway through the second half despite losing Crichton before the 20-minute mark. Toby Sexton made a huge impact off the bench, but two late tries got the Storm home.
Winning is a habit, however, and the Bulldogs have now lost four of their last five games.
The Panthers resisted a spirited elimination final challenge from the out-of-form Warriors in Auckland, ultimately prevailing 24-8. But they received several crucial questionable calls in the second half and were far from convincing – particularly after enjoying 56 percent possession.
It was nevertheless the Panthers’ 13th consecutive finals victory.
The Bulldogs have named Matt Burton in Crichton’s centre spot, while Bronson Xerri returns on the other edge at Enari Tuala’s expense. Toby Sexton will start at halfback alongside Lachie Galvin and Reed Mahoney has received an interchange recall.
The Panthers’ 17 is unchanged but hooker Mitch Kenny is expected to be a late inclusion.
The Bulldogs beat a NSW Cup-strength Panthers side 28-4 in Round 26 but lost the previous eight clashes between the clubs. The Panthers won a high-quality encounter 8-6 in Round 17 at CommBank Stadium.
The Panthers are very familiar with Accor Stadium – having won the past three grand finals there – but they’re winless in two matches at the ground in 2025 after going 13-2 from 2018-24. The Bulldogs have won eight of 11 at Accor Stadium in 2025.
The Bulldogs have not won a finals match since 2015 and Chrichton is a big loss, but it’s arguable they would have taken more confidence and momentum from week one than the clunky Panthers.
The presence of Cleary, Yeo, Edwards and co. makes it very difficult to back against a team with such vast experience in finals footy, but there’s a handful of young players approaching the biggest match of their career and the Panthers look far too short as a $1.32 favourite.
Expect this storyline-laden showdown to go down to the wire.
SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRONSON XERRI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $46.70
2024
A massive NRL semi-final weekend awaits as two soundly beaten Qualifying Finalists host a pair of teams who mowed down deficits to win their elimination finals.
The chastened Sharks and Roosters have resisted anticipated changes to their spines – on Team List Tuesday, at least – while the Cowboys and Sea Eagles will wheel out the same 17s that got the job done in week one.
In 2023, both losing top-four outfits bounced back with wins in week two, while only five teams from the bottom half of the Top 8 have taken out semi-finals in the past 10 seasons.
Below we have our insider 2024 NRL semi-finals previews and tips as the countdown to the 2024 NRL grand final continues!
Cronulla Sharks are staring down the barrel of eight successive finals defeats as they prepare to welcome North Queensland Cowboys to Allianz Stadium on Friday night.
The 14-10 halftime scoreline in Melbourne’s favour last Saturday was deceptive – and Cronulla was completely overrun in the second half of a 37-10 defeat, as the Sharks’ errors were ruthlessly punished and their goal-line defence lacked the necessary intensity and organisation.
Another Nicho Hynes big-game failure rightly came under heavy scrutiny.
He’s survived the axe with Daniel Atkinson a viable halves option, but the Dally M winner was horrendous and his waspy midweek media reaction to the criticism should have alarm bells ringing in the Cronulla camp.
It was far from their only issue for the Sharks, however, with no forwards making more than 81 metres against the Storm.
Jesse Ramien is a chance of returning in the centres, which would allow Siosifa Talakai to provide some much-needed punch in the forwards.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, can consider themselves fortunate to be lining up in week two, overturning a 12-4 halftime deficit – and surviving a big scare at 16-all – to get away with a 28-16 home win over Newcastle via two late tries.
They struggled to contain Kalyn Ponga all night, but the Knights’ limitations allowed the firepower-laden Cowboys to claw back courtesy of classy touches from Kyle Feldt, Valentine Holmes, Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden.
Another sleepy first-half display could prove fatal for Todd Payten’s side, which remains unchanged.
The 2024 ledger between the clubs is square, the Sharks romped to a 42-6 win at home in Round 7, but the Cowboys regrouped with a 30-22 victory in Round 21 on the back of a Kyle Feldt hat-trick – which was just their second in 13 matches against Cronulla.
Of course, the other win was a phenomenal 32-30 golden point triumph in the 2022 Qualifying Final in the Sharks’ backyard, won by a booming Valentine Holmes field goal after Jason Taumalolo sent it into extra-time with a last-minute try.
This is the clubs’ sixth finals meeting since first meeting in the post-season in 2013, with the Cowboys leading the count 3-2. Three of them were decided by two points or less.
The Cowboys won their first match at the new Allianz Stadium – a mid-season upset of the Roosters this year – and won a pair of 2017 finals at the pre-refurbished venue after losing five straight post-season games there from 2011-16.
The Sharks’ only appearance at the new SFS was an ugly 38-12 semi-final loss to Souths in 2022 a week after the Cowboys heart-breaker.
If Hynes and the Cronulla pack play with the poise and authority that they frequently do during the regular season, their $1.60 favourite tag is justified…but it’s a big ‘if’ for a team with the finals yips and their key player battling a crisis of confidence.
Riding a 7-1 run, the Cowboys present a more compelling case with plenty of points in them and fewer mental demons to grapple with.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.83
SGM: COWBOYS WIN / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.62
Sydney Roosters were exposed by the relentless three-time premiers last weekend, battling without their number one halfback and only finding some resolve and momentum when it was too late.
Can they turn things around against a Manly Sea Eagles side coming off their best win in over a decade?
The Roosters were swamped in the first half at Penrith, heading to the sheds 24-0 down.
To their credit, they scored two tries to one after the break – but winning the second half holds far less cachet after getting obliterated in the first.
Sandon Smith had a difficult night in the pressure-cooker standing in for the injured Sam Walker.
He’s been named again but there is speculation Joey Manu – who has been below par of late in the centres – could be moved to five-eighth.
That would require Luke Keary to step up considerably from the leadership and direction he showed against the Panthers.
Veteran Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returns in what could be his last NRL match, while fellow firebrand Victor Radley (fractured scapula) is in the extended squad.
Both are noted risk-versus-reward performers at the best of times, but the Roosters would gladly welcome their experience and intensity.
The Sea Eagles displayed outstanding grit and character to recover from 16-6 and 22-12 down to beat the Bulldogs 24-22 in an elimination classic last Sunday.
Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks were superb, while a hampered Tom Trbojevic came up trumps when it mattered after seeming off the pace for much of the match.
Manly’s speed and strike out wide – best exemplified by Tolu Koula’s brilliant match-winner – was a key factor in the win, while Haumole Olakau’atu and Matt Lodge headlined the engine-room standouts.
The team is unchanged with winger Jason Saab remaining in the casualty ward.
Manly sprung a 21-14 upset of the Roosters at 4 Pines Park in Round 2 to set up a much-improved campaign.
The Tricolours took out a bizarre Round 21 encounter 34-30 at Allianz Stadium, building a 28-6 lead but almost throwing it away in an intercept-plagued second-half performance.
The Roosters have won their last five matches against the Sea Eagles in the Moore Park precinct.
Manly won the clubs’ 2021 Semi-Final in Mackay 42-6, their first post-season encounters since the Roosters took gripping qualifying and grand final wins in 2013.
The Sea Eagles lost their last three finals matches at the pre-refurbished Allianz Stadium, while the Roosters are 7-4 at the new version in 2024 – scoring 34-plus in all seven wins and 16 or less points in each of their four defeats.
The archrivals match up well right across the park, though the Roosters would seem to have a slight advantage in the pack on paper and Trbojevic’s fitness has to be a concern in his individual showdown with in-form Roosters talisman James Tedesco.
But the presence of DCE up against a currently rudderless Roosters side could prove decisive on Saturday night.
A barnburner awaits – and it’s one the Sea Eagles are more than capable of winning as a $2.35 underdog.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+2.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SITILI TUPOUNIUA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $40.47
2023
The second instalment of the 2023 NRL finals sees two badly beaten top-four heavyweights host sudden-death semis against a pair of teams who emerged from nerve-shredding elimination finals in week one.
Will momentum or the bounce-back factor and home advantage win the weekend? Top-four losers are 16-6 in semi-finals since the current finals format was adopted in 2012.
Melbourne Storm are attempting to regroup from a jarring qualifying final defeat, while the streaking Sydney Roosters head south to keep their remarkable late-season revival going – but both sides are battling a spate of backline injuries.
The Storm crashed 26-0 to the Broncos last Friday, producing a mistake-ridden and ill-disciplined performance that ranked among the club’s worst-ever on the finals stage.
The Melbourne pack was thoroughly outpointed, blue-chip trio Cam Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant were poor and the back five – Xavier Coates aside – was ordinary at best.
The latter stages of the rout were compounded by ankle injuries to Coates and Ryan Papenhuyzen. Reimis Smith comes onto the wing, Alec MacDonald takes Papenhuyzen’s place on the bench and Justin Olam is back in the centres with Young Tonumaipea (head knock) dropping out.
The Roosters’ back-from-the-dead revival has extended to six straight wins, knocking the Sharks out of the finals 13-12 in enemy territory after trailing by six inside the last 15 minutes.
Big guns James Tedesco, Sam Walker, Joey Manu and Lindsay Collins stood tall, while unheralded types like rookie second-rower Siua Wong were outstanding despite their lack of playoffs experience.
The Roosters are counting the cost of the gutsy victory, however, with Manu, Billy Smith and Joseph Suaalii all ruled out with injury. Paul Momirovski and Corey Allan are the new centre pairing while Jaxson Paulo earns a recall on the wing.
The Storm have won seven of their last eight against the Roosters, including a pair of convincing victories in 2023: 28-8 at AAMI Park in Round 6 and 30-16 at the SCG in Round 20.
The clubs have met four times in the finals with the Roosters boasting a 3-1 advantage, following up their one-sided 2018 grand final triumph with a tense preliminary final win in 2019. Their only post-season encounter in Melbourne was in 1998, when the Rooster prevailed 26-12.
The Storm are on an eight-match winning streak at AAMI Park, but they are a modest 10-6 in finals matches at their home base. The Roosters have an all-time 4-5 finals record outside Sydney.
There’s no question the 2023 versions of these perennial grand final contenders are a shadow of their usual dominant selves. But both are laced with premiership winners and big-match performers.
The Broncos provided the Roosters with a blueprint for beating the Storm that they are well-suited to roll out: aggressive defence and cutting down the time Munster, Hughes and Grant have with the ball – but how much will the trio of backline outs disrupt the visitors?
While its no surprise to see the Storm installed as favourites at home, they look significantly overvalued at $1.26 to advance to a preliminary final date with Penrith. This has low-scoring nail-biter written all over it.
Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (+11.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $66.13
The season’s two unlikely fairytale teams fight for the right to head to Brisbane for a preliminary final. Neither side met expectations in week one, so who bounces back harder at a sold-out Mt Smart Stadium?
The Warriors copped a finals lesson in just their first post-season appearance in five years, while Newcastle Knights survived an almighty fright to close out their first playoffs win in a decade in extra-time.
Shaun Johnson’s absence could not have been any more glaring in a 32-6 loss at Penrith with the Warriors’ kicking game abhorrent and their attack aimless.
A bit of backbone in the second half after trailing 20-0 at the break was a positive, but the Warriors’ pack struggled to get any ascendancy and some of their edge defence was diabolical.
Johnson has been named to return, with Dylan Walker reverting to the bench and Freddy Lussick dropping out of the 17 in the only changes to the Warriors’ line-up.
The Warriors’ late-season momentum has come to a grinding halt – and realistically they haven’t put in a quality 80-minute performance since trouncing Cronulla in Round 20.
The same can’t be said of the Knights, who have carved out an incredible 10-match winning streak with a host of dominant performances. But their 30-28 qualifying final eclipse was arguably their patchiest effort in months.
The home side looked rattled as the out-of-form Raiders powered to a 16-6 halftime lead, while after Kalyn Ponga, Dominic Young and Tyson Gamble engineered four unanswered tries in 15 minutes, the Knights spluttered again to leak two late tries and head into extra-time where they got up via a penalty.
The Knights won last Sunday despite halfback Jackson Hastings again succumbing to an ankle injury. Adam Clune, superb in Hastings’ absence in the latter rounds, will return to the No.7. They have also lost Lachlan Fitzgibbon (shoulder) with Dylan Lucas coming straight into the second-row.
The Knights have won four of the teams’ last five clashes, though the 2023 regular season series was split. The Warriors kicked off the Andrew Webster era with a gritty 20-12 win in Wellington in Round 1, but the Knights turned the tables 34-24 in Newcastle in Round 6.
The Warriors have won 12 of their last 14 against the Knights on New Zealand soil – but the Knights did win the last clash at Mt Smart in 2019.
The Warriors have played just three finals at home: a qualifying final win over Canberra in 2002, a qualifying final loss to Parramatta in 2007 and a semi-final defeat of the Roosters in 2008. The Knights are searching for their first finals win on the road since 2013.
The Warriors are 7-2 at Mt Smart in 2023, winning their last four – but it’s arguable that they have struggled to consistently produce their best at their heaving home ground. The Knights have won four straight on the road after winning just one of their first eight away from Newcastle.
The Warriors will be on high alert for the brilliant Ponga, while the Knights’ red-hot three-quarter line matches up very well with some shaky counterparts on the opposite side.
Addin Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris asserting some dominance through the middle and Johnson controlling the game as he has done so well this season is the key for the Warriors, who are showing hallmarks of a straight-sets exit outfit.
This should go down to the wire with the value sitting squarely with the firepower-laden underdogs.
Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / DOMINIC YOUNG TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $31.58
2022
After one of the most dramatic and exhilarating NRL finals series opening weekends of all time, four clubs head into week two striving for a preliminary final opportunity.
Two team are riding the momentum of their elimination final boilovers, while the other two are dusting themselves off after qualifying final defeats.
Parramatta Eels have a semi-final hoodoo to overcome if they are to halt Canberra Raiders’ blistering charge, while South Sydney Rabbitohs are shooting for a second straight sudden-death Allianz Stadium triumph over a Sydney rival.
Parramatta Eels will be looking to sift through last weekend’s 27-8 loss to Penrith for positives as theY aim to secure the club’s first preliminary final berth since 2009.
The Eels showed real grit to lead the Panthers after 50 minutes last Friday, despite being largely outplayed. But Mitchell Moses’ exit combined with Nathan Cleary’s class – including his dismantling of Waqa Blake – set up a convincing result for the minor premiers.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo were outstanding in muscling up to the ferocious Penrith pack. Moses and Reed Mahoney were certainly up for the occasion, too.
But spearheads Clint Gutherson and Dylan Brown went missing, while the back-five contributed far too little from a yardage perspective. Isaiah Papali’i and Ryan Matterson will be eager to have more of an impact on the blue-and-golds’ offence this week, too.
Moses remains in some doubt to back up from concussion – his presence is absolute must if the Eels are to bounce back.
Canberra Raiders, meanwhile, are riding a wave of eight wins in nine matches and coming off a stunning 28-20 victory in Melbourne. The Raiders came from behind on multiple occasions and their freewheeling, adlib attack was operating at its peak.
Joe Tapine (216 metres, three line-break assists) was absolutely colossal, Josh Papalii had a mighty game, Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty stood up in key moments, and the likes of Hudson Young and Matthew Timoko grow in stature with every game.
The Raiders have lost in-form Adam Elliott to a pelvic injury in a notable blow, but Corey Harawira-Naera is playing superb footy and will relish a starting opportunity. Ryan Sutton joins the bench.
The Eels have a huge mental hurdle to overcome here: they have been dumped out of the finals in week two in four of the past five seasons. Encouragingly, they were gallant in an 8-6 loss to the Panthers at this stage this year – but the run of failures will be weighing on this squad.
Conversely, when Ricky Stuart’s Raiders make the playoffs, they go deep. The Green Machine’s last three finals forays – 2016, 2019 and 2020 – all resulted in at least a preliminary final appearance.
Parramatta has won four of its last five against Canberra (after losing 11 of the previous 13 clashes between the clubs). The Eels prevailed 28-20 in a Round 12 encounter in the capital this season, with Dylan Brown (198 metres, three line-breaks, two tries) stealing the show.
The CommBank Stadium factor is a key one in Parra’s favour. The Eels are 31-11 at their home base, though they have dropped two of their last five there. The Raiders are on a five-match winning streak on the road – including a pair of smash-and-grab upsets in Melbourne.
The Raiders are $2.60 outsiders to advance and clearly the value option here given the confidence they take out of their recent performances. It shapes as another twisting, turning classic – but in a battle between two flighty outfits, form and finals history could be enough for the visitors to get up.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $2.00
SGM: RAIDERS BY 1-12 / OVER 41.5 POINTS / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRY SCORER / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $67.26
A pair of upset week one results have led to a Saturday night sudden-death semi few were anticipating.
Cronulla Sharks are probably still wondering how they failed to end up with the week off and free passage to the prelims. They built a 30-22 lead in a seesawing showdown with the Cowboys, but Connor Tracey’s 72nd-minute sin-binning was pivotal and a last-minute try consigned them to extra-time.
The Sharks were sunk by one of their 2016 premiership heroes, Valentine Holmes, in golden point. On a positive note, Will Kennedy made a sparkling two-try return from injury and Nicho Hynes – though he couldn’t get his team over the line – produced three try-assists.
Cronulla’s yardage game was strong, getting plenty of production from the bench, while Ronaldo Mulitalo racked up 275 metres from the wing.
South Sydney Rabbitohs pulled off a 30-14 upset of Sydney Roosters in an unforgettable, explosive elimination final on Sunday. Talisman Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker – who had four try-assists – stepped up brilliantly, keeping their heads when everyone else was losing theirs.
But regrouping after the emotion of that victory shapes as a real challenge for the Bunnies, while it’s worth noting luck played into their hands with three Roosters trumps leaving the game in the first half.
Tom Burgess’ high-tackle spree – which potentially saved Souths’ season by rubbing James Tedesco out of the match – has incurred a two-match suspension. Michael Chee Kam takes his spot on the bench in the Rabbitohs’ only change.
The Sharks will roll with the same 17 with Dale Finucane escaping suspension for a crusher tackle.
Cronulla has now won just one of seven finals matches since its 2016 grand final triumph. Meanwhile, Souths have reached the preliminary final in each of the past four seasons, winning week two semis from 2018-20.
These teams’ last 10 encounters have been split five apiece, though Cronulla’s three wins in the last seven clashes were all at Shark Park. That tally includes the clubs’ Round 20 epic, where Hynes proved the difference in 21-20 golden point thriller and Burgess got himself sent off.
The Rabbitohs have become very familiar with the new Allianz Stadium in recent weeks and it should feel like a home game. They’re slight $1.85 favourites – but the emotional rollercoaster of last weekend and one less day’s rest can’t be discounted.
This one is just about too close to call: Souths’ finals experience and the form of Mitchell and Walker is a handy advantage, but Cronulla will throw more at the Rabbitohs defence than the Roosters were able to due to mitigating factors.
Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 6.5 Points @ $2.65
SGM: SHARKS +1 / OVER 42.5 POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JESSE RAMIEN ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $18.54
2021
BP Print Stadium in Mackay will take centre stage this weekend as the host of the NRL’s do-or-die Semi Finals round.
Fresh from a blowout loss to the Storm, the Sea Eagles are looking to bounce-back when they take on the injury riddled Roosters on Friday, followed by a massive clash between two Western Sydney rivals, the Panthers and Eels, on Saturday.
With the Storm and Bunnies waiting patiently, find out who we’re tipping in our 2021 NRL Semi-Finals Preview here!
The Sea Eagles have a chance to right their wrongs after suffering another humiliating loss to the Storm last week in the Qualifier.
Not for the first time, a lack of possession and some basic tackling issues cost Manly a chance to advance to the Prelim, but Des Hasler won’t be panicking after the injury-ravaged Roosters barely managed to squeak past the Titans last week.
Given their long list of outs, Trent Robinson’s men did quite well to keep the penalty count to a minimum and hold Gold Coast to just one try in the first half.
That said, Manly will set about this task with a renewed sense of vigor on defence after missing 36 tackles against Melbourne, while they’ll also have revenge in mind after losing 46-4 to the Roosters back in Round 1.
Tom Trbojevic wasn’t available that day, so it’s hard to imagine a similar scoreline unfolding – especially if the Roosters are without Siosiua Taukeiaho and Sam Verrills like the injury report suggests.
For Manly to win, they simply need to get their hands on the ball and limit the damage from James Tedeseco and Daniel Tupou.
That can be easier said than done, but considering the Sea Eagles haven’t lost back-to-back games since Turbo returned to the side, it’s hard to imagine them not booking a date with the Bunnies next week.
Tip: Back Manly to Win & Under 46.5 Total Points @ $2.60
The Panthers hit a bump in the road last week with a surprise loss to Souths, but it might just be the wakeup call Penrith needed as they look to continue their push for a second Grand Final appearance.
Stephen Crichton’s early try was one of the few bright spots about last week’s result before a litany of errors got in the way.
Nothing is a given come finals time, but the Panthers should feel confident heading to Mackay knowing they manhandled the Eels 40-6 a fortnight ago behind a hat-trick from Brian To’o.
Of course, it must be said that the Eels were far from full strength that day as Brad Arthur chose to rest a handful of his stars in preparation for the Knights.
This time around the Panthers will have to deal with the likes of Clinton Gutherson, Waqa Blake and Mitchell Moses, meaning we should see a closer game than the current -11.5 line in favour of Penrith suggests.
The Panthers are also set to welcome last week’s late omission Dylan Edwards back into the side, which should help solve some of the ball handling and tackling issues we saw last week.
As far as betting goes, the Panthers have played to a 3-1 record on the back of a loss over the last 12 months – which is impressive considering they don’t lose often.
It’s also worth noting that the last 12 games between these two sides have gone Under the Total, so the Panthers to win a low-scoring game represents some real value.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Win & Under 44.5 Total Points @ $2.40
2020
The 2020 NRL Semi-Finals are upon us as we prepare for two scintillating contests.
Fans will be treated to the third Grand Final rematch of the year on Friday night as the Roosters and Raiders fight to keep their season alive, followed by what many are calling the most dangerous team in the competition, the Rabbitohs, taking on the half-strength Eels at Bankwest on Saturday.
There is certainly no love lost between these teams and you can find all of our 2020 NRL Semi-Finals tips below!
The third Grand Final rematch of the season awaits on Friday night as the Raiders and Roosters hope to settle the score once and for all.
Canberra defeated the reigning premiers 24-20 when these two sides met back in Round 10, right before the Roosters got revenge in Round 17 with a low-scoring 18-6 win at GIO Stadium.
It’s safe to say there is no love lost between these two sides following the 2019 Grand Final controversy, and considering no more than a try has separated the two clubs in five of their last six meetings, there’s plenty to suggest the latest instalment should be close.
The Roosters showed plenty in the second half last week against the Panthers to suggest they aren’t dead just yet.
Trent Robinson’s side outscored Penrith 18-6 in the second half, only to be come undone on Nathan Cleary’s last-minute field goal.
The Raiders, on the other hand, had things all their own way against the Sharks at home.
Canberra cruised towards a 32-20 victory over Cronulla as George Williams and Jack Wighton both scored themselves a double.
Despite failing to make amends for their Round 20 loss against the Rabbitohs last week, the Roosters’ 4-2 record on the back of a loss has to be respected.
Likewise, a tough, hard-fought game against the minor premiers reads a little better than a win over the Shaun Johnson-less Sharks, so it’s no real surprise to find the Roosters as the odds-on favourites.
That said, the Raiders probably don’t deserve to be +6 underdogs either.
Canberra has lost only one game on the road this year and also covered the line in four of its last five games as the away underdog.
After defeating the Chooks at the SCG earlier in the year, this shapes up as another instant classic.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $2.00
The market suggests this game is almost a foregone conclusion as the Rabbitohs look to record their third consecutive blowout win in as many weeks.
After finding themselves down two tries early, South Sydney managed to pull off eight unanswered tries on their way to a whopping 46-20 win over Newcastle last week.
Things weren’t quite as peachy for Parramatta last week up in the Sunshine State.
The Eels crossed the line in the first minute of the game against the Storm, but it was all downhill from there as Melbourne piled on the points in a comfortable 36-24 win at Suncorp.
To be fair, the writing has been on the wall for a long time when it comes to the Eels.
The last two months have largely been unconvincing if you’re an Eels fan as Brad Arthur’s side continues to struggle to play a consistent 80-minutes of football.
On attack, the Bunnies look extremely dangerous – as Parramatta found out the hard way in their 38-0 loss to Souths back in Round 16.
There’s absolutely nothing to suggest the Rabbitohs can’t replicate that performance, especially with Maika Sivo done for the year and Blake Ferguson questionable with a leg injury.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-6 Points) @ $2.00
2019
The 2019 NRL Semi Finals are here and we are set for two outstanding games this weekend.
All season long it looked as though we were heading to a Grand Final rematch between the Sydney Roosters and the Melbourne Storm, but the Storm’s loss against the Canberra Raiders means that is no longer possible.
The Storm will look to keep their season alive when they host an in-form Parramatta Eels on Sunday afternoon after the South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Manly Sea Eagles.
We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 NRL Semi Finals tips can be found below.
It was a night to forget for the South Sydney Rabbitohs against the Sydney Roosters.
The Roosters simply blew the Rabbitohs off the park early and Wayne Bennett’s men were never able to get into the match.
Despite the heavy nature of that defeat, the Rabbitohs will still go into this clash with the Manly Sea Eagles as clear favourites and they have generally proven tough to beat in this situation.
The return of Sam Burgess is enormous for them and he will definitely have a point to prove after missing last weekend’s final due to suspension.
South Sydney have won seven of their ten games as home favourites this season, but they are a poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario and their overall record against the line has been poor.
No team has been better to punters this season than the Sea Eagles and they were once again able to win at big odds against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend.
There is no doubt that they are a better side with Tom Trbojevic, as any team would be, but they have proven that they are capable of winning without him.
Manly were able to beat South Sydney earlier this season and both games between these two sides this year were decided by a single point.
The Sea Eagles have won four of their nine games as away underdogs this season for a big profit and they are an impressive 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
I really don’t think that there will be an enormous amount between these two sides and Manly are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 6.5 points.
Back The Sea Eagles To Cover The Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90
Luck didn’t go their way in the opening week of the NRL Finals and that leaves the Melbourne Storm in a do-or-die scenario against the Parramatta Eels this Saturday night.
A couple of controversial refereeing decisions went against the Storm, but there is no doubt that they didn’t play their best against the Canberra Raiders and they will need to improve to beat the Eels.
The positive factor for the Storm is that they very rarely lose back-to-back games.
They have not done so this season and they have lost back-to-back games only twice since 2016.
Melbourne have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites, but they are only 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Another positive for the Storm is their record against the Eels.
They beat them 64-10 when they met during Magic Round earlier this season and they have won the past 3 games played between the two outfits.
Parramatta could hardly have been more impressive against a poor Brisbane Broncos outfit last weekend and they will go into this clash with a huge amount of confidence.
The likes of Mitchell Moses have taken a huge step forward this season and they play the sort of attacking rugby league that can give the Storm some serious issues.
Winning on the road has been something of an issue for the Eels this season and they have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs.
Stringing together impressive efforts has also been a problem for the Eels and they are only 7-7 on the back of a win in 2019.
I don’t think that the Storm will blow the Eels off the park, but I still think that their quality will prove too much for their rivals over 80 minutes.
Back Melbourne Storm To Win 1-12 @ $2.90
2018
We were treated to some outstanding contests in the opening weekend of the 2018 NRL Finals and the two games this weekend are set to be just as intriguing.
The action begins on Friday night when the Cronulla Sharks take on the Penrith Panthers in the first ever finals meeting between the two sides before the South Sydney Rabbitohs face a rejuvenated St George Illawarra Dragons outfit on Saturday.
We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Semi Finals tips can be found below.
Things started clicking fast for the Sharks last week, as Sosaia Feki put one down in the corner inside the first five minutes of the game.
After such promise though, Cronulla fell away from there on out, allowing two unanswered tries to the Roosters to lead at the half.
The Sharks had plenty of chances, but Sydney did a great job of stretching Cronulla’s attack, limiting them to very few opportunities on the wing.
The end result was a 21-12 loss after Luke Lewis dropped an absolute sitter over the line.
As for the Panthers, their win over the Warriors was nothing short of dominant.
Tyrone Peachey was the difference, scoring two tries within a ten minute span during the first half, while Nathan Cleary was a deadeye dick in front of goals.
For what will be a worrying sign for Sharks coach Shane Flanagan, Penrith were exceptionally precise with their passes and also managed to win the field position battle with some well-timed kicks.
So what does that say about Friday night’s fixture?
Having won five straight dating back to 2016, recent history tells us the Sharks are good for a bounce-back, but they’ll certainly have their work cut out for them against this rejuvenated Penrith side.
Cronulla enter at the shorter odds, which is good news for punters considering the Sharks are 4-1 as the home favourite against the Panthers, however they’ll need to knuckle down defensively if they are to win this.
If anything was evident last week, it was Cronulla’s weakness defending the kick.
The Roosters chose their moments sparingly, but when they layed down a couple of grubbers, both led to scoring chances.
The Sharks will also need to tighten up with their tackling. Cronulla missed 34 tackles last week, but more importantly committed 10 crucial penalties.
Still, this has been the story of Cronulla’s season – average one week, dazzling the next. It’s worth remembering the Roosters are the classiest side in the competition right now, and despite the scoreline, the Sharks were in the game right up until the 75-minute mark.
Expect a bounce back this week from the heavy favourites. There’s simply too much experience in this Sharks outfit to die quietly.
Tip: Back the Sharks 13+ @ $3.60
Same Game Multi: Sharks To Win, Sharks Over 3.5 Tries, Josh Dugan Anytime Try Scorer
Were the Storm too good or were the Bunnies not good enough last week?
Perhaps a bit of both, but one thing is for sure, the Rabbitohs are still one of the most dangerous sides left in the finals hunt this season.
Right on time, Greg Inglis showed up last week, crossing the line twice on each side of half time, while Damien Cook was special once again playing on Cameron Smith.
If it wasn’t for Adam Reynolds’s horror night in front of the posts, Souths would have won this game, but Anthony Seibold’s team didn’t die wondering as they threw everything they had at the Storm in the final ten-minutes.
The Dragons, well where do you begin?
After a season that began so brightly only to be muddled with inconsistencies, St. George looked like their old selves last week at Suncorp.
The ‘Red V’ fans turned up in force, and so did second-rower Tariq Sims – the big 28-year old managed a hat-trick against the dumbfounded Broncos.
Perhaps the most impressive sign from the Dragons though, was their creativity with the ball.
They kept Brisbane guessing, and more importantly missing tackles around their own line.
It’s safe to say if the Dragons play like that again this week, they’ll be tough to beat.
The Rabbitohs have won three of the last five meetings between these two, and somehow come in well under the odds at $1.25 despite St. George’s return to form.
Perhaps the bookies have been paying close attention to the head-to-head record between these two clubs.
The Dragons are a miserable 1-4 against the Bunnies as the away underdog, while the Rabbitohs have been good, but not unbeatable at 5-3 as the overall home favourite this season.
Much of this game is likely going to come down to defence, and with the Dragons ranking second in the league in missed tackle and the Rabbitohs ranking first in points scored during the regular season, you don’t have to be a genius to realise that doesn’t spell a close game.
With Gareth Widdop back in the side last week, the Dragons looked reborn again, but an unlucky shoulder dislocation has cost the captain a date with a surgeon and the end to his season.
It’s a big loss for St. George, and with their main leader off the field, the Bunnies should run rampant.
Tip: Back South Sydney 1-12 @ $2.90
Same Game Multi: South Sydney 1-12, Under 7.5 Total Match Tries, Dane Gagai Anytime Try Scorer, Timoteo Lafai Anytime Try Scorer
2017
How good was the opening weekend of the 2017 NRL Finals!
All four games were genuine thrillers and we are set for two more outstanding games this weekend as the Brisbane Broncos host the Penrith Panthers and the Parramatta Eels do battle with the North Queensland Cowboys.
We had three wins from our four tips in the opening weekend of the NRL Finals and we are confident that winning record will continue in our 2017 NRL Semi Finals tips.
The Brisbane Broncos return to Suncorp Stadium and they will start this clash with the Penrith Panthers as clear favourites.
Brisbane did not play at anywhere near their best against the Sydney Roosters, but they still almost came away with the win.
There is no doubt that they miss the structure that Darius Boyd gives them and there is every possible chance that he will be cleared to take his place in the Broncos side this weekend.
Brisbane recorded a dominant win over Penrith when these two sides met earlier this season and the home side has won seven of the past eight games played between these two sides.
The Broncos have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit this season, but they are only 5-1-5 against the line in this scenario.
It has been a tough fortnight for the Panthers, but they bounced back to a semblance of their best form to beat the Manly Sea Eagles – with some help from The Bunker.
Penrith will still need to improve on that effort to have any chance of beating the Broncos, but their recent record against the Broncos would inspire some confidence.
The Panthers have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that Brisbane really should win, but there is no real value at their current quote and we have to dive a little bit deeper to find a betting play.
Recent meetings between these two sides have served up some high-scoring games and the Total Points betting market of 37.5 points does not look like enough – this total has been beaten in five of the past six games played between these sides.
The Over has saluted in nine of the past 12 games played by the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium and that record should improve again on Friday night.
Back Over 37.5 Points
The Parramatta Eels were desperately unlucky not to beat the Melbourne Storm last weekend and they will start this clash with the North Queensland Cowboys as clear favourites.
Parramatta had every right to be feel hard done by after a couple of refereeing decisions went against them against the Storm last Saturday afternoon, but that performance did show that they are capable of competing with the very best teams in the NRL.
The form of the Eels should not be understated – they have won nine of their past 11 games and those wins do include a couple of big scalps.
Parramatta have won six of their past eight games as home favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-1-4 against the line in this scenario.
The Cowboys looked in massive trouble in the early stages of their clash with the Cronulla Sharks and finding the try line seemed just about impossible.
A mentally weaker side would have been blown off the park by the Sharks, but the Cowboys hung tough and they were rewarded with a thrilling golden-point win.
North Queensland played well when it mattered, but ball security let them down throughout their elimination final clash and they will need to play much better to have any chance of beating the Eels.
The Cowboys did beat the Eels comfortably in their most recent fixture, but they had Johnathan Thurston in the side that evening and they were handily beaten by the Eels when they met earlier in the season.
North Queensland have won four of their past past nine games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are a very impressive 7-2 against the line in this scenario.
Parramatta deserve to go into this clash as favourites, but there is not as much between them as the current betting market suggests and the Cowboys are a nice bet to cover the line.
Back North Queensland To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)
2016
This is the second week of the NRL Finals and there are two massive games set to take place this weekend.
There will be no repeat of the all-Queensland Grand that we saw last year as both the North Queensland Cowboys and Brisbane Broncos will do battle this weekend to keep their title chances alive.
The Penrith Panthers are arguably the form team in the NRL and they have an excellent opportunity to progress to the Grand Final Qualifier when they face an injury-hit Canberra Raiders.
You can find out thoughts and betting recommendations for both games below.
It is on again – the North Queensland Cowboys vs the Brisbane Broncos in an NRL Finals showdown.
It is now no secret that the past three games played between these two sides have been decided by a single point, but this will also be the third season in a row that North Queensland have taken on Brisbane in the finals.
Finals history is against Brisbane as they have lost their five previous finals clashes with North Queensland and it is the Cowboys that will start this clash as clear favourites.
North Queensland were very close to stealing a win over the Melbourne Storm in the qualifying final, but it is fair to say that the Cowboys would not have deserved the victory.
The Cowboys did not control the football, were ill-disciplined and their kicking game was poor – it is amazing that they only lost by a converted try.
The fact that this game is being played in Townsville in what is highly likely to be dry conditions is a big positive for the Cowboys.
North Queensland have won all 12 of their games as home favourites this season – with their only defeat at home coming when Johnathan Thurston was out with a hamstring injury – and they are a most impressive 9-3 against the line in this scenario.
The Broncos scored a big win over the Gold Coast Titans in the elimination final, but there was not a great deal to like about the performance.
A number of refereeing decisions went the way of the Broncos and their defense was very poor throughout.
If the Broncos produce a similar performance against the Cowboys, Thurston will tear them to shreds.
Brisbane have only played three games as away underdogs this season and they were able to win one, while they are 3-1 this season when giving away a start.
I don’t think that there will be only one point in this contest – a firing North Queensland can maintain their stellar record over the Broncos and keep alive their chances of becoming the first side to win back-to-back premierships in the NRL era.
Back The North Queensland Cowboys To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
The Canberra Raiders and Penrith Panthers have been the two big improvers in 2016 and this will be a truly fascinating clash.
Canberra will rue an opportunity that go away against Cronulla.
They stormed out to an early lead and looked as though they were going to put a score on their rivals, but a lack of composure at key moments cost them badly and they lost star hooker Josh Hodgson in the process.
Canberra will still go into this game as favourites, but that could change if Blake Austin is unable to make his return from injury.
The Raiders have proven to be a very safe betting play at home and they have won nine of their 11 games as home favourites this season, while they are a non-profitable 5-6 against the line in this scenario.
Penrith made it six victories on the trot with their win over the Canterbury Bulldogs and they did so in truly emphatic fashion.
There has been plenty to like about the rugby league that the Panthers have played in the past month and they will take plenty of confidence into this showdown.
Penrith will go into this game with what is a full-strength them and their record as underdogs this season has been excellent – they have won three of their seven games as away underdogs for a healthy profit and they are 5-2 against the line in this situation.
The loss of Hodgson will be crucial for the Raiders – they lost their way when he went off the field against Cronulla – and the Panthers are a great bet to keep alive their scintillating season.
Back The Penrith Panthers To Win @ $2