The next generation of players will enter the NFL over the coming weekend with the 2023 NFL Draft taking place in Kansas City.
While every team would love to select a plethora of future Hall of Famers, the reality remains that this time of year is very much an inexact science for the teams where they roll the dice and hope for the best.
Even so, there are a few things that we can say are certainties to occur over the coming days, Carolina is going to take a quarterback first overall, a couple of teams will decide to punt on this year and load up in 2024, Bill Belichick is going to do something out of the ordinary and the Chiefs fans will be wearing their Super Bowl Champions merchandise
The good news for punters here is that there are plenty of NFL Draft markets available with Ladbrokes and we’ve done our film study, analysed the mock drafts and found some value plays.
First Overall Pick
For all intents and purposes, this market is a stay away, it sure sounds like the Carolina Panthers are going to pick Bryce Young out of Alabama with the first overall pick.
That sentiment is reflected by the fact Young is priced at $1.10 and there is daylight between him and the field.
But these markets do fluctuate and we have been surprised by the first overall pick in the past.
Will Levis is making a late run at taking that top overall spot and has seen his price plummet to $5.00, which makes no sense given he might be the fourth best quarterback in his class.
If the Panthers are going to pass on Young, CJ Stroud looks like the next best option and at $26.00 you might want to have a small play on him, but considering the value on offer elsewhere, just sit this one out.
NO BET
Second Overall Pick
Here is where things could get a bit more interesting, Houston will be on the clock and they definitely need a quarterback, but there is no guarantee they make the simple choice.
Remember in 2006 when they passed on Matt Leinart, Vince Young and running back Reggie Bush to take defensive end Mario Williams?
In this draft class, the best players are all on the defensive side of the ball, but the premium on quarterbacks have pushed the best at that position up to the top of the pile.
Which puts the Texans in an odd position where they have to decide if they want to take a quarterback with better options on the board, just take the defensive player or see if they can bring in a haul of picks from a much more desperate team.
In a weird way, it helps that the Texans are so talent deficient at just about every position on the roster, they can just do what they think is best for their team rather than panic and try to find the right guy.
For some reason however, the market has shifted in the last few days to put Will Levis, arguably the fourth best quarterback in the class, as the $2.25 favourite to go as the second overall pick.
The only way that will happen is if a needy team decides to trade a bevy of picks to Houston and pass up Stroud (or Young) for a guy who likes to add mayo to his coffee.
Alabama defensive end Will Anderson is arguably the most complete player in this draft class and has the support of plenty of internet experts, which makes him an excellent value option as the second overall pick.
Will Anderson @ $4.25
Third Overall Pick
Arizona is not taking a quarterback, they might trade this pick to someone who wants a quarterback, but with a horribly deficient defence, they have to find a way to add an impact player up front.
The good news for them is that one, if not two players that fit that description will be available at the third overall pick and based on the projection I’m working off, Tyree Wilson will be the straightforward selection here.
However you may want to consider taking an insurance play, because Detroit could look to move down a few spots (to say pick seven) and allow someone to come up and get CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson, because we know the Colts will be going QB up next.
CJ Stroud @ $3.50
Tyree Wilson @ $4.00
Fourth Overall Pick
Best case scenario for the Colts, they will have their pick of Stroud or Richardson and it all comes down to who they want.
The Ohio State prospect could walk into the Colts building and make himself the entrenched starter for the next decade plus.
However Richardson could very easily become the best player in this draft class, if he gets the right coaching, but he needs time.
Time is not on the side of the Colts with a roster that is close to competing in a bad division if they stay healthy and Stroud gives them the best chance to win in 2023.
Plus from a betting perspective, you can take a Stroud in a couple of spots and still have a chance of turning a profit on backing him to go early.
CJ Stroud @ $3.00
Fifth Overall Pick
Seattle needs help on defence and they might be tempted to take someone like Richardson to sit and learn behind Geno Smith, but there are far more pressing needs for Pete Carroll.
If Anderson or Wilson are on the board here, they will be the selection.
Otherwise it is going to be defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who for a brief period was promoted as the first overall pick to Chicago prior to their trade and his legal issues.
However teams have had a few months to evaluate those concerns and if there is one team that is happy to roll the dice on a player with those question marks it is Seattle.
Carroll will back his decades of experience to help Carter grow and mature on and off the field.
Jalen Carter @ $4.50
Sixth Overall Pick
Detroit’s secondary was bad last season, at times historically so and their biggest weakness was stopping the pass.
It just comes down to which cornerback they like between Devon Witherspoon from Illinois or Christian Gonzalez from Oregon.
Both have all of the measurables you want in an outside, shut down corner and a few question marks as well.
In what is essentially a toss up, have a small play on Gonzalez at a price.
Christian Gonzalez @ $7.50
Top 10 Draft Pick
Las Vegas, Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia will round out the top ten in the draft and each will have a very different set of skills they need to address but there is some value to be found in this market.
Las Vegas has plenty of needs but I’ve got them landing their quarterback of the future in Anthony Richardson here.
He’s not even close to being ready to start but he can sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo for a year or two and fix a few of his shortfalls before taking over.
There’s not much value backing him to be a top ten pick at $1.12 though.
Georgia defensive end Nolan Smith will stay at home and get picked up by the Falcons in this projection and let’s be honest, Atlanta needs plenty of help all over the place.
He is definitely an option in this range from the Pick 8-12 and just about every team here would love to add someone like him to their pass rush.
At $2.25 it’s definitely worth a play on the current price.
Chicago should stop the slide of Devon Witherspoon at pick nine which is going to be a steal for them, even if the punters’ don’t get a lot of value out of that pick.
But at Pick 10, the Eagles are in a luxurious position where they can take just about anyone except a quarterback as they bolster a roster that went to the Super Bowl last year.
They love a deep defensive line and they can bolster it with Lukas Van Ness who definitely has the talent to be a top ten pick.
There is also some value to be had on the tackles not named Peter Skowronski but the run on that position appears to be coming in the teens and it’s not something I feel strongly enough about to back.
Nolan Smith @ $2.25
Luke Van Ness @ $3.00
WR Draft Markets
It’s shaping up as an intriguing year if you need a wide receiver, there’s not a true elite talent on the board but there’s plenty of second-tier talent.
Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba is odds on to be the first receiver off the board and could go as high as Houston at pick 12.
Behind him there are a group of players that could turn into really good players but have a few question marks attached to their reports.
Once you hit Seattle at pick 20, there are plenty of teams that could use a pass catcher.
Boston College receiver Zay Flowers has shot up the media’s draft boards in the last few months but there is a chance that those in the reporting business are higher on him than those in the actual draft rooms.
Assuming Smith-Njigba is off the board, Flowers could be targeted by Baltimore at pick 23 as they look to give Lamar Jackson another solid option.
Jordan Addison might not blow many people away as a rookie but he does appear to tick a lot of boxes in terms of being able to contribute from the outset, I’ve got him landing with the Giants at 26 which would make him the best receiver on that roster.
One name that has been sliding since the calendar switched to 2023 is Quentin Johnson who has the size to compete but his testing numbers did not paint a pretty picture.
It looks like the market is adjusting to his slide as well with his expected draft position getting lower and lower.
Zay Flowers Second Receiver Drafted @ $2.25
RB Draft Markets
There is but one question surrounding the running backs in this draft, and it is quite simply which team will pull the trigger on Bijan Robinson.
20 years ago he would have been in contention to go first overall, but with the position getting more and more devalued, someone is going to get a steal.
Many think the Eagles at 10 would be a perfect landing spot for him as they look to replace the departed Miles Sanders and there is a chance he ends up as the best player in the entire draft class.
Someone will take him in the first round, the lowest he will fall will be Cincinnati at 29 but that could be a blessing in disguise as he joins an already stacked offence.
Whoever does take him will get a great playmaker and just about every team could use one of those.
In terms of betting plays, I’m having a couple of dart throws in the double digit odds range with teams in the back end of the first round.
Robinson to the Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ $13
Robinson to the Cincinnati Bengals @ $15
CB Draft Markets
If you’re still reading this far down, you will understand why this description will be brief.
Witherspoon and Gonzalez are the top two options at the position and the market has them going quite high on the board.
However I like Gonzalez just a bit more and I’m willing to have a punt on the Lions feeling the same way.
Christian Gonzalez First CB Drafted @ $2.75
Devon Witherspoon First CB Drafted @ $2.85