The UFC returns to Las Vegas for the final PPV event of 2023 with a Welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headlining the card.
The co-min event will see a the UFC Flyweight title on the line as Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his belt for the first time against Brandon Royval.
There are plenty of big names on the card, including the prelims, and we have offered our thoughts and betting plays below.
Unbeaten in his last 12 fights, Leon Edwards last tasted defeat in 2016 December 2015, via decision against Kamaru Usman.
He got his revenge on the former champion and won gold at UFC 278 with one of the most memorable knockouts wins in the sport’s history.
Clearly down on the score cards, Edwards landed a perfect head kick that floored Usman and resulted in the belt being wrapped around his waist for the first time.
Proving the win was no fluke he won a majority decision in their third encounter in London and that was despite having a point deducted for grabbing the fence.
Colby Covington gets his third chance at winning the UFC Welterweight title having failed on two occasions against Usman, both in close contests.
We haven’t seen the outspoken and controversial character since March of 2022 when he defeated Jorge Masvidal via decision.
Like Usman, Colby possesses excellent wrestling skills and always piles on the pressure to his opponents, setting a frantic pace throughout five rounds, but Leon stuffed the majority of Usman’s takedowns in their third fight and can see that happening again.
I am confident the fight goes deep and if Leon can’t get a finish late, he wins a close decision.
2 Units Leon Edwards in rounds 4,5 or by decision @ $2.20
Alexandre Pantoja earned a title shot against Brandon Moreno with three impressive wins in a row, one being a submission win over his opponent in this first title defence.
Not everything went his way against Moreno, but he won a razor close decision to get UFC gold wrapped around his waist for the first time.
After back to back losses against Moreno and Pantoja, Brandon Royval has worked his way back into contention by winning his last three fights, the two of which were finished in the first round.
We can expect a high paced and skilful showing of Mixed Martial Arts in this co-main event but I’m struggling to see a pathway to victory for the challenger.
4 Units Alexandre Pantoja to win @ $1.50
There in few more exciting prospects in the UFC than Shavkat Rakhmonov fighting out of Kazakhstan and he comes into the biggest challenge of his career undefeated in 17 professional fights.
All 17 of those wins have been finishes (eight KOs & nine subs) and five have come in the UFC.
Wonderboy has been a main stay in the UFC welterweight top 5 for a long time, fighting for the title back in 2016/17.
Despite being 40 years of age, he comes into this fight having won three of his last five and is always a tough challenge for anyone with his unique and awkward technique and slick movement.
Many are predicting Shavkat to continue on his winning ways against an aging fighter in Wonderboy and while I tend to agree, his price is far too short against such a crafty veteran.
No Bet
The Paddy returns to the octagon for the first time in twelve months and is looking to continue his unbeaten run in the UFC.
He secured his fourth win in the promotion this time last year when defeating Jared Gordon via decision but many, including this viewer, thought he’d lost the fight.
There is no doubting the 28-year-old form Liverpool in England has excellent grappling and submission skills but his boxing and striking skills leave a lot to be desired.
And despite Tony Ferguson being clearly past his prime, he is a crafty and awkward striker.
El Cucuy has always been a fan favourite and at one point in time he was an interim champion and put together 12 wins in a row.
But the reality is that he has left the octagon on the losing side in his last six.
There is no knocking the quality of opponent he has faced and for periods against Michael Chandler and Nate Diaz, he was winning the exchanges.
A loss for Ferguson would almost certainly spell the end of an exciting career and while it is a tall order he represents great value if he can land that one clean punch against a guy that is average at best when standing.
½ Unit Tony Ferguson by KO @ $10
½ Unit Tony Ferguson by Points @ $6.50
Josh Emmett earned an interim title shot in the Featherweight division on the back of five wins in a row including a split decision win over Calvin Kattar.
He fell short in Perth at UFC 284 against Yair Rodriguez and has since gone on to lose by decision against Ilia Topuria in June.
Bryce Mitchell suffered the first defeat of his career against Topuria this time last year after putting together 15 wins in a row previous to that.
Like Paddy Pimblett, his strength lies in his grappling and wrestling capabilities and his weak point is clearly his striking.
But he can put an enormous amount of pressure on to get the fight to the canvas and makes it almost impossible for his opponent to get up.
Mitchell takes this fight on short notice which may be a concern but he is the type of guy to be training and prepares all year round.
Josh Emmett throws with bad intentions and elite accuracy and all he needs is that one punch to land to finish the fight.
He offers too much value to let slide.
1 Unit Josh Emmett by KO/TKO