The PGA Tour returns to the mainland after two weeks in Hawaii with the staging of The American Express in Palm Springs, a time-honoured tournament that dates back to 1960 and has been won by Palmer, Nicklaus, Miller, Mickelson and Rahm.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- GIR
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Birdie or Better
- Par 4 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
This tournament is staged over three different courses but essentially what we are looking for is a player who can go low – the highest winning score since 2008 is -20 with 10 winners reaching -25 – and this is typically achieved in Palm Springs by bringing an elite approach game.
Key Correlation Courses
- TPC Scottsdale
- Narashino Country Club
BEST BET
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER
It is hard to profile much better for a tournament than Scottie Scheffler profiles here in The American Express.
Of the seven key statistics we are looking at this week, Scheffler tops the field in five of them (GIR, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, Par 4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance) and ranks top 10 in the other two (Birdie or Better, Scrambling).
The key correlation tournament we are looking at is the Waste Management Phoenix Open and Scheffler has won the last two stagings of that.
He has played here four times and has two Top 11 finishes.
BEST VALUE
JASON DAY
Queenslander Jason Day has historically loved west coast golf and while he will improve once getting onto poa annua greens, he is a nice value runner this week.
He is certainly coming in with some good form, opening this season with a 10th in The Sentry, finishing last year with a win in the Grant Thornton Invitational with Lydia Ko and winning the Byron Nelson and finishing runner-up in The Open last year during a positive year.
He ranks top four in the field in strokes gained on both Dye and Nicklaus designed courses and finished T-18 here last year.
Has the class, form and profile to win.
ANDREW PUTNAM
Under-the-radar veteran Andrew Putnam looks a very nice hope this week. Putnam has a great record in Palm Springs, finishing Top 36 in all six starts including three Top 17 results.
Winners of The American Express tend not to be playing their first event of the year and Putnam already has two in the books including a T-10 at the Sony Open.
Putnam now has three Top 10s in his last six PGA Tour starts.
Ranking 8th in Bogey Avoidance and 9th in Par 4 Scoring, he looks a nice fit for a win in the desert.
BEST ROUGHIES
DOUG GHIM
Former Ben Hogan Award winner Doug Ghim has yet to really threaten as a pro but his trendline is pointing in the right direction and he is value to Top 10/20 at big odds.
Ghim’s True Strokes Gained line has been on the improve since May last year with his work off the tee behind that.
While an approach game is the key here, he has been on the positive side of this metric in eight of his last 13.
Ghim ranks sixth in GIR and 12th in Bogey Avoidance so looks a nice tourney for him.
KEVIN YU
This tournament is no stranger to blowout winners and after Grayson Murray won the Sony Open at $401, we should not ignore the bottom of the market.
Kevin Yu looks the pick of them, at least statistically.
Last season Yu ranked fourth in GIR, 11th in Birdie or Better and 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. An injury last year curtailed his upward trend but there are far worse long shots you’ll bet than Kevin Yu this week.
TOP CANADIAN
ADAM HADWIN
Adam Hadwin has an absolutely elite record in Palm Springs. In his last seven trips here, he has four Top 6 finishes and a worst finish of T-32.
Nick Taylor is the only player who should really be able to go with Hadwin and Taylor does not play well here.
This is a great value bet at $2.20 or bigger.
BEST TOURNAMENT HEAD TO HEAD
TONY FINAU (v ERIC COLE)
It is a little surprising to see Tony Finau so undervalued this weekend and being pick ‘em against Eric Cole is a great betting opportunity.
Finau has a great record on Nicklaus courses and finished last year ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
With three Top 16 finishes in the last four years here, Finau is an excellent bet to win this matchup.