The final major of 2024 is upon us with Royal Troon hosting the Open Championship for the 10th time and the third time this century.
Americans had won six straight at the venue but that streak ended at the famous 2016 Open when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson duelled it out before Stenson proved victorious.
Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau are chasing their second major of 2024 while Brian Harman is looking to defend his crown.
This is set to be a wonderful week on the Ayrshire Coast of Scotland.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Bogey Avoidance
- Sand Saves
- Total Driving
- Wind Form
- Round 1 Scoring
Royal Troon is an iconic course on the Open rota that debuted in this championship back in 1923 and has been used every decade since the 1960s.
It is a somewhat quirky Par 71 that starts off easy before getting incredibly difficult on the back nine.
Colin Montgomerie famously said that if you walk off the sixth green and you aren’t under par, you may as well keep walking.
Driving is not critical but accurate distance as shown by Stenson and Mickelson last time around is an advantage.
The key here though is scrambling because the greens are tiny that chipping well and sinking putts is important.
Open Championships are typically front-runner courses so getting a good start is critical and as always with links golf, wind form must be factored in.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Open Championship
- Alfred Dunhill Links
- Scottish Open
BEST BET
TYRELL HATTON
The temperamental Tyrell Hatton has threatened to win an Open Championship for a while and entering it in the form he is in, this could well be his year.
Unlike some other defectors, Hatton has lost no touch since moving to LIV.
He won in Nashville two starts back and was a shot back in Andalucia and he always finds another leg on links courses as a two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links.
His major form this year has been good: he has made all three cuts with a T-9 at The Masters. On the LIV circuit this year he ranks Top 6 in Putting Average, Strokes Gained: Putting, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Around The Greens and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
Finished Top 20 in three of the last four Open Championships.
BEST VALUE
JON RAHM
Rahm has been the complete opposite of top selection Hatton – he has hated his move to LIV and struggled every week.
It has bled into the majors with T45/Cut finishes before missing the US Open.
His form on the LIV circuit though has not been awful with nine Top 10s from nine completed tournaments, and this is a course that should suit.
He has finished Top 3 in two of the last three Open Championships so loves this tournament.
A renowned wind player, he has the game to make a big push at big odds this week.
TONY FINAU
Big hitter who is perennially underrated in this event and is playing good golf though slipping under the radar.
He has gained more strokes than any other player on the planet in the wind over his last 36 rounds while he ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 12th in Round 1 Scoring and 15th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
He has finished Top 18 in four of seven Opens, he has finished Top 20 at the last two majors and finished Top 8 at his last three starts.
BEST ROUGHIES
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
Hideki Matsuyama was the hot tip for the Masters this year but it has always looked like this Open Championship would be his best shot at claiming his second major.
The Japanese star leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Around The Green while he ranks second in Scrambling, fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 12th in Bogey Avoidance.
Profiles well with a win this year, a previous Open Top 10, a Top 20 in a major this year and a Data Golf ranking in the Top 35.
BILLY HORSCHEL
Horschel is a huge price this week and while a win is unlikely, he is huge value in Top 10/20/40 markets.
Billy Ho ranks Top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting and Scrambling. He has won this year and has a Top 20 this year.
At 37, he also has the experience needed to win an Open Championship and has been trending upwards this year.
TOP LEFTY
BRIAN HARMAN
It is stunning that Harman is on the second line of betting in this one.
Robert MacIntyre is favoured after winning the Scottish Open but he made it quite clear that he was going to be partying for a week following the win.
Harman won the Open Championship last year and is super value in this market.
TOP SENIOR
ERNIE ELS
Few golfers come into the Open with three wins in his last five starts but that is what former Open champion Ernie Els has.
He comes off his first Senior Major last week when winning the Kaulig Companies Championship.
He won twice on that tour prior since June and is a mammoth price.