Last week’s US Grand Prix in Austin set the stage for a dramatic conclusion to the 2024 Formula One season and the teams head south to Mexico City for Round 20 this weekend.
Max Verstappen bolstered his World Championship advantage on Lando Norris by winning the sprint race and benefitting from a penalty to the Brit on the final laps to steal the final podium place.
However Charles Leclerc was the true winner of the weekend, winning the main race to gain 10 points on the Dutchman in the overall standings and close the gap on Norris to 24 points.
It is still very much Verstappen’s title to lose and he carries a three year winning streak at this track into Monday morning’s feature race.
Track Stats
- Direction: Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 4.304km
- Total Laps: 71
- Race Distance: 305.354km
- Lap Record: 1:17.774 (2021, Valtteri Bottas)
- 2023 Podium: Max Verstappen (RBR), Lewis Hamilton (MER), Charles Leclerc (FER)
- Most Event Wins: Max Verstappen (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023)
Race Winner
It came up last weekend but Verstappen’s winless streak has now reached nine races (with two sprint victories in that time), but his record in Mexico City is damn hard to ignore.
The Dutchman is still getting the best out of his car and it sure seems like whatever advantage Lando Norris had through August and September has gone.
Perhaps the biggest challenge might come from Leclerc did manage a podium finish last year with a much worse car.
However in the market it is very much a three horse race and Verstappen looks like the value here as the outsider.
It’s not the best scenario for a dramatic conclusion to the World Championship but it does look like the best value play here.
Max Verstappen Race Winner @ $4.50
Winning Margin
Verstappen tends to win his races by a long way and if he can jump out to an early lead, the rest of the pack bickering behind him could open up the opportunity for him to build a solid lead.
Take the value on a comfortable, if “boring” outcome.
11 or More Seconds @ $2.50
Podium Finish
Since the Mexican race was re-introduced in 2015, no driver has had a more successful time at this event than Lewis Hamilton.
He has been the runner up to Verstappen in each of the last three races and won the 2019 event, the last time he missed the podium was in 2018.
All up he has eight starts here for four second place finishes and two race wins.
Coming off a frustrating retirement in Austin, Hamilton should be well placed to bounce back in this race.
Ferrari came out of the break with a much improved car and it showed with their drivers occupying the top two spots on the podium.
To chase a bit of value it’s also worth having a little something on the Carlos Sainz recording his first podium in Mexico City.
Carlos Sainz Podium Finish @ $2.60
Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish @ $7.00
Top 6 Finish
Sometimes an opportunity presents itself for a storyline bet and none stand out more than backing Checo Perez to pick up a top six finish in his home event.
The veteran driver cannot escape the retirement rumours surrounding his future and if this is his farewell race, he could very easily find that extra motivation.
Especially as he would love to atone for his retirement in the 2023 race.
Sergio Perez Top 6 Finish @ $2.40
Points Finish
The new entries on the grid showcased their potential in Austin and I’ll be backing them once again here.
Kiwi driver Liam Lawson showed why the Red Bull team were so eager to get him into a seat, overcoming a pit lane start to finish ninth in Austin, a spectacular drive and one he desperately needed.
Argentine Franco Colapinto might not be winning any friends with his aggressive style but it has been productive with two points finishes from four starts.
He is more than capable of doing it again.
Franco Colapinto Points Finish @ $2.75
Liam Lawson Points Finish @ $3.00
Number of Classified Finishers
It was another race in Austin with a 95% completion rate as Lewis Hamilton was the only driver to not finish the race.
That makes it eight of the last ten races where 19 or 20 drivers have finished the race as the safety car driver has one of the best jobs on raceday.
Over 18.5 Finishers @ $2.00