You give Formula 1 a week off and all hell breaks loose with Red Bull.
Kiwi upstart Liam Lawson has been demoted back to the junior team Racing Bulls with Yuki Tsunoda finally getting his chance in the top team as Max Verstappen’s underling.
Meanwhile, early pacesetters McLaren will enjoy the disarray as they look to repeat their quinella from Shanghai a fortnight ago.
The third race of the season takes us to Tsunoda’s home country of Japan with the Suzuka International Circuit set to host the event for the 35th time.
Track Stats
- Direction: Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 5.807km
- Total Laps: 53
- Race Distance: 307.47km
- Lap Record: 1:30.983 (Lewis Hamilton, 2019)
- 2024 Podium: Max Verstappen (RBR), Sergio Perez (RBR), Carlos Sainz (FER)
- Most Event Wins: Michael Schumacher (1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004)
Race Winner
Based on what we have seen in the first two races, it’s McLaren, Verstappen, daylight and the field.
So, which of their drivers will be the best bet for Suzuka or is there someone from the field who might make a massive jump?
You can never count out Max Verstappen, not to mention it feels like George Russell and the Ferrari duo will be competing sooner rather than later, just maybe not this weekend.
In his four previous starts at Suzuka, Lando Norris has steadily improved going from 11th in 2019 to 10th in 2022, before registering a third and second in the last two years.
The Brit is the deserving favourite and is the best bet for this race.
Lando Norris to Win @ $2.40
Podium Finish
Since his promotion to Red Bull in 2016 Max Verstappen has started the Japanese Grand Prix seven times, recording three race wins, a pair of seconds and a third place finish with one retirement in 2019.
While he is not the dominant force he was for most of the last few years, the Dutchman is excellent value at over even money to fill out the podium behind the McLaren duo.
This is one of the easier bets of the weekend and will remain so any time he is over even money.
Max Verstappen Podium Finish @ $2.10
SGM: Norris to Win, Piastri and Verstappen Podium @ $12.97
Top 6 Finish
While the usual suspects have been filling out the majority of spots in the top six in the first two races, there have been some fresh faces involved as well.
Lance Stroll, Alex Albon and Esteban Ocon have all featured in that group, as has the value bet in this market with Mercedes’ second driver Kimi Antonelli posting a fourth in Melbourne and sixth in Shanghai (with the aid of a late disqualification).
Chances are one of the cars (probably Ferrari) will have something go wrong and he is well placed to capitalise on said errors.
Esteban Ocon has a little bit of history at this track, finishing sixth in 2018 and fourth in 2022.
As we saw in China, he is capable of surging up the order on his day and is worth a play at his price.
Kimi Antonelli Top 6 @ $2.25
Esteban Ocon Top 6 @ $8.00
Points Finish
Ocon also represents a fair bit of value in the points finish market and is worth doubling down on for this race.
It is also somewhat tempting to have a small play on Liam Lawson to get his season back on track given his relative familiarity with the Suzuka track.
While he has only done one race there in Formula 1, an 11th place finish filling in for Daniel Ricciardo in 2022, he has had some success in other forms of motorsport.
Not to mention the added motivation of driving for his F1 career following his horrific start for Red Bull and subsequent demotion.
Liam Lawson Points Finish @ $1.91
Esteban Ocon Points Finish @ $3.75
Number of Classified Finishers
While there is some rain forecast for Sunday, it looks like the track will be relatively dry by the time the lights go out.
Only one car failed to finish in Shanghai and this circuit is very friendly for the drivers.
Only 17 cars finished last season due to a collision between Ricciardo and Albon, while Zhou was forced to retire with gearbox issues.
It certainly seems like the cars are off to a strong start this season with most of the retirements coming through force.
Expect a very easy race for the safety car with not a lot of retirement.
Over 18.5 Finishers @ $2.25
Japanese Grand Prix SGM
Lando Norris to Win, Max Verstappen Podium Finish, Esteban Ocon Points Finish @ $20.20