Ready to back a long shot? See our top Saturday roughies that could upset the odds and deliver big!
After unlocking some value tipping last weekend’s Doomben Cup placegetter Fawkner Park, we head to Eagle Farm this weekend where the winter carnival action continues with Queensland Derby Day.
There’s a double-shot of elite level racing on the card in Brisbane with the meeting’s time-honoured feature joined by the Kingsford Smith Cup where a class field of sprinters faces off.
As always, we’ve worked our way through the Saturday form guides and come up with a genuine Gr 1 Derby place hope at huge odds, while we’re taking on the Kingsford Smith Cup favourite with a value Each Way play.
Lucy Henderson, our resident “value whisperer”, shares her insights on the underrated horses to watch in Saturday’s races – read on for her selections!
Eagle Farm Race 5 (2:03PM AEST) – Group 2 $1,000,000 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400M)
PLACE: No. 14 CALL DA VINCI ($31 at time of publish)
CALL DA VINCI (10) is an underrated two-year-old who looks every hope to run Top 3 in this million-dollar showdown after back-to-back wins in the lead-up.
Bevan Laming’s Under The Louvre gelding is up in grade and heads to the big city after two Ipswich wins over 1350m earlier in the month carrying plenty of weight to some impressive victories.
He only debuted at Doomben in mid-April when runner-up to Cool Archie who has franked the form with two subsequent wins including the Group 2 Spirit Of Boom Classic on May 17.
That looks some strong form to follow into this.
Versatile having won on a Good (4) and Heavy (8) he presents rock-hard fit and regular rider Jaden Lloyd knows him well.
No doubting this is a tougher assignment, but based on what he’s shown in easier grade, think he might be up to the task and can surprise a few.
Eagle Farm Race 6 (2:38PM AEST) – Group 3 $300,000 Fred Best Classic (1400m)
PLACE: No. 12 TUNED ($35 at time of publish)
TUNED (3) looks well overs in the Fred Best Classic for Annabel & Rob Archibald.
To be ridden by Jamie Mott from a favourable barrier three draw, this in-form Zoustar colt is beautifully bred and racing up to his pedigree of late.
He is already a three-time winner from seven starts and has only finished out of the money once when fourth under three lengths off Imperial Force at Wyong back in March.
Went on to win a Benchmark 72 at Warwick Farm after that narrowly before going down by a bare margin to Tuff Tu Muss with 59kg here at Eagle Farm on a Heavy (8) in late April.
Travelled to the Gold Coast at his latest on May 10 and finished third in a muddy edition of the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas (1200m) when making up lots of ground from the back behind runaway winner Bosustow who scratched out of this event to tackle the season’s top sprinters in the Kingsford Smith Cup later on the card.
Think that form is solid and bodes well for this forgotten contender.
Firmer going here with form on Soft tracks.
Expect him in the finish late.
Eagle Farm Race 7 (3:13PM AEST) – Group 1 $1,000,000 Kingsford Smith Cup (1300M)
EACH WAY: No. 13 BOSUSTOW ($8.50 at time of publish)
While no doubting the winning potential of race favourite JOLIESTAR (11), for value the young colt BOSUSTOW (4) looks an outstanding chance to challenge second-up as an Each Way Kingsford Smith Cup betting play.
The consistent and progressive son of Blue Point from the Archibald yard was enormous fresh running away in the wet to take out the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas over the 1200m by six lengths against his own age.
He steps out against the big gun sprinters now at Eagle Farm on a huge raceday but looks to have the class to handle the assignment.
He boasts winning form on all going so has the versatility to handle a firmer track now and also has previous winning form second-up.
He claimed the lucrative Magic Millions 3YO Guineas back in January before a trip across the Tasman where he caught the eye finishing a distant but brave second behind runaway champ Here To Shock in the Group 1 BCD Group Sprint (1400m) at Te Rapa.
Think from gate four with Josh Parr continuing associations he will be there to challenge when it counts.
PLACE: No. 6 PAYLINE ($19 at time of publish)
PAYLINE (10) has been well overlooked in the markets for locals Chris & Corey Munce and, with Tommy Berry doing the steering, he looks a lovely inclusion for exotics in the Group 1 sprint.
The Shooting To Win four-year-old has had nine runs here at Eagle Farm for a win and four placings and is now out to stretch himself to 1300m having only won up to 1100m to date, which goes someway in explaining the odds.
He was huge in January’s Magic Millions The Syndicate (1100m) coming with a weaving run under Damian Lane to come from well back and charge home to beat Golden Bloom at 20/1 in an eye-catcher.
Soft going is his go (9:4-2-1) and his class was there to show when going around at 50/1 in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Doomben 10,000 (1200m) on May 17 to finish only a half-length third behind the very good mare Sunshine In Paris and hitting the line very well to boot.
Prior to that he was ninth to Libertad here in the Group 2 Victory Stakes (1200m) on a Good (4) in an effort that is braver than it looks on paper. He had to overcome barrier 13 of 16 and found himself back early with too much to do late, but he was scintillating in the final 600m reeling off a blistering sectional time.
He’ll be back again in this but the jockey change, Joliestar to follow into it, and a little further to make up ground, happy to put a little something on him to improve!
Eagle Farm Race 8 (3:52PM AEST) – Group 1 $1,000,000 Ladbrokes Queensland Derby (2400M)
PLACE: No. 2 IMPERIALIST ($17 at time of publish)
IMPERIALIST (13) is a last start winner from the Chris Waller stable who is given no chance by the bookies but a Top 3 contender at big odds for mine.
Tommy Berry sticks aboard the Kiwi-bred son of Churchill having ridden him to victory here on a Heavy (8) in the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate (2000m) last time out.
The gelding had gate 14 of 14 but relished the conditions to improve on his ninth in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas on a Good (4) over the mile here at Eagle Farm the run prior to post a blowout 1.37 length win at 60/1.
He’ll get Soft going on Saturday, is Group 1 performed in the past, and even with another wide alley to overcome has the mile and half to get there.
The double-digit draw historically is favourable in this event with wide barriers (10 or above) producing seven Queensland Derby winners from 2011 – 2024.
Another Waller runner, Kukeracha (2nd in 2021), was the last Queensland Derby winner to come off a lead-up run in the Rough Habit Plate.
Waller in fact has prepared three past champions and while I don’t see this horse winning, happy to put something on him in the exotics!
Happy punting!