Evaporate is a dark horse destined to shine for the Hayes boys this spring!
We’re back this week with round two of our Ladbrokes exclusive Spring Prospect Watchlist where we put the spotlight on some of the upcoming carnival’s potential Group 1 stars.
Last week we looked into the Cox Plate potential of Tom Kitten, and he’s definitely one to watch in the famous Royal Blue silks.
Another powerhouse racing operation looking ahead to the majors is Lindsay Park, and one of the rising big names for the Hayes boys is Evaporate.
Could this four-year-old be ready to break his Group 1 maiden over the coming months? We think so!
After a winning hit-out at HQ on Monday the Little Avondale Stud bred son of Per Incanto is earmarked to become one of the most exciting names in Australian and New Zealand racing.
With his first-up run of the season fast approaching, below we dive into his past form and the major indicators that he’s about to join the big league. Next Mr B? Let’s see!
EVAPORATE (NZ)
- Age: 4YO
- Sex: Gelding
- Breeding: by PER INCANTO (USA) from SAVANNA (NZ)
- Owners: Mystery Downs, Mrs C M Cook, Mr C J Grace, Mr R A Frew, Mrs L A Frew, Mr A S Williams, Mr B E Buchanan, Dr F Carnovale, Ms J P Cook, Mr M W Dunne, Mr B Falloon, Mr T J Fink, Mr P P Victor, Mr B S Wilson, Mr R Green, Mr S J Pickworth, C F C
- Trainers: Ben, Will & JD Hayes
- Career: 14-5:3:2
- Prizemoney: $1,462,626
Major Wins:
- Group 2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on September 27, 2024
- Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick on April 5, 2025
Last Autumn Start:
- 1st in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) beating Swiftfalcon by 2.16 lengths at Randwick on April 5, 2025
First-Up Spring Performance:
- Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on August 16 – Ran 5th 2.8 lengths behind Private Eye
Second-Up Spring Run:
- Group 3 Sandown Stakes (1500m) at Sandown on September 27 – Ran 1st finishing 0.06 lengths ahead of Transatlantic
Latest Start:
- Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield on October 11 – Ran 2nd 0.15 lengths beaten by Transatlantic
Next Start:
- Golden Eagle (1500m) at Rosehill on November 1 – $11 (at time of publish)
Features in Futures Markets for the:
- Group 1 Champions Mile (1600m) at Flemington on November 8 – $15 (at time of publish)
- Group 1 Champions Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on November 8 – $26 (at time of publish)
Why He’s the Real Deal for the Spring Group 1s
Strong Form as a Three-Year-Old: Evaporate really came alive as a three-year-old. Last spring Carnival he was on fire taking out the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over The Valley mile and then just missed in the Caulfield Guineas with his brave third behind Private Life under a length beaten as a double-figure roughie. It was tight in the Group 1 and that is a race where you usually spot the next big thing before they blow up.
Proven Group-Level Performance: He proved he wasn’t just making up the numbers in the fields for some pretty strong events. Winning at Group 2 level, running in a Group 1 trifecta – Evaporate has obviously got the gas to hang with the best. It’s one thing to show up, but to actually be right in the mix? That says he’s got guts and class to spare.
Versatile and Adaptable: Something of a Lindsay Park chameleon, he seems to handle whatever the team throws at him. He’s been solid on both Good and Soft rated tracks over 1400m to 1600m. That’s gold during the Spring when the weather, especially in Sydney, can be all over the place.
Impressive Wins and Strong Performances: He doesn’t just sneak wins in, he beats his rivals by notable margins. The Carbine Club Stakes at Royal Randwick was by more than two lengths, and he didn’t even look like he was breaking a sweat which bodes very well considering he’ll be presenting more mature as a 4YO in the spring.
Positive Trainer and Jockey Feedback: The people around him are all-in on this galloper. The Hayes crew have always said he’s the real deal, and jockey Blake Shinn has also been singing him praises ahead of the spring. Shinn’s not a guy for empty hype and called him a “really good horse”; he even said he’s got Group 1 written all over him. Young horses don’t get that kind of praise unless they’re flashing some serious talent.
Ideal Spring Carnival Profile: With his racing style and bloodlines, he’s screaming a potential huge value Cox Plate contender. He’s got the engine and upside for 2000m but he’s also quick enough for those top-tier mile races too.
Eye-Catching Performance
Evaporate’s not just an average horse, this guy’s starting to look like a legit trans-Tasman star in the making. He’s been turning heads on both sides of the ditch, but his run in the first-ever $3.5 million The Everest slot race at Ellerslie is where he really caught our eye.
He went into the March 8 clash as the favourite and, even though he didn’t snag the win thanks to the winner Damask Rose getting a charmed ground-saving run, his second-place finish lost him few admirers.
Team Hayes had put a big circle around the lucrative 1500m showdown a long way out and, while the fact he didn’t salute was disappointing on paper, there was still plenty of good to take out of the run.
He crossed 1.5 lengths off the winner after he got shuffled back mid-race before finding another gear late, digging in for Blake Shinn and showing plenty of late guts to go on with it.
It wasn’t the first time he’s copped a tough run either. Anyone who remembers last year’s Cox Plate knows it was the same deal. He got forced back in the pack at a crucial stage to finish ninth (dead last) behind Via Sistina who basically lapped her rivals. But, that was right after his nice third in the Caulfield Guineas behind Private Life, so you know the ability’s there.
Back to The Kiwi, he closed like a freight train producing a massive turn of foot. Then, just to show he hadn’t lost confidence, he turned up at Randwick and absolutely smoked them in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes leaving some quality horses like fellow Group 1 placegetter Swiftfalcon in his dust.
Best Autumn Form Line
Evaporate’s autumn campaign was a bit of a head-turner, honestly. You look at those runs in the Caulfield Guineas and the Cox Plate and think, this young gun’s not messing around. The Guineas is basically where future champs get their badges. It’s a Group 1, stacked field, pressure cooker stuff. To nail down third in that, especially with the way he zipped home late, shows he’s got wheels and knows how to use them.
Then the team threw him in the WFA championship race as a three-year-old running in the Cox Plate. Man, that’s a whole different challenge. Older, tougher horses, no kids’ table here. Evaporate kind of got buried in the ruck for a bit, but instead of folding, he dug in and went toe-to-toe with horses who’ve seen and done it all. For a three-year-old, that’s promising stuff, even if he didn’t end up beating home any of his rivals. Most would’ve faded, but he didn’t quit despite them all crossing the line ahead of him.
This horse isn’t a one-trick pony, either. He handles different distances, keeps his head screwed on straight when things get hairy; ask any trainer, that’s gold dust. Horses who show up in those big autumn Group 1s? They’re usually the ones entering the winners’ circle come spring, simple as that.
And his breeding? He’s by Per Incanto, out of a nice mare – if you know, you know. Basically screams, “I’m only getting better from here, folks.” The results looked good on paper, but it was the way he went about his business with guts, adaptability, and packing a punch at the finish that made everyone sit up and say, “Watch out for this one in the spring.”
Recent Trial Performance
Evaporate was so commanding in his second jumpout this prep at Flemington on August 4. I mean, talk about a flex. He cruised along then found another gear and left the others eating dust after surging clear off a sharp turn of foot. Michael Dee was on board, and honestly, he barely had to ask for anything.
And this wasn’t some fluke. His first jumpout? Also impressive. He powered through the line like he had somewhere better to be. It’s pretty clear he’s come back from his break in seriously good nick.
What the Trainer Said
Co-trainer Ben Hayes laid plenty of post hit-out praise on Evaporate when speaking to Racing Victoria.
“Very happy. We actually jumped him out with earmuffs on this morning, and he was excellent,” he said.
“Probably his one little niche is that he does over-race in races, so we’re going to strongly consider leaving the earmuffs on for his first-up run in the P.B. Lawrence.
“Michael came back and gave a really good report, loved the way he kicked and showed a good turn of foot. We think he’s in for a good campaign.
“If he was able to run well in a P.B., we’d consider the Memsie. Grand final for him would be a Golden Eagle.”
Watch Evaporate’s recent trial win here.
Key Attributes
Evaporate’s basically got the whole package if you’re looking for a spring carnival star. He boasts a ridiculous turn of foot, blink and he’s already left the others in his wake. You could see it plain as day in those Flemington jumpouts; he barely broke a sweat and still cruised past everyone. No drama, just business.
He’s not stuck in one gear, either. Some horses only know one way to run, but Evaporate? He’s happy sitting off the pace, or he’ll roll forward if that’s what the race throws at him. Super adaptable, which is a godsend when races get messy.
Mentally, he’s switched on now too. While he used to get a bit hot-headed, the likely addition of earmuffs to his gear when he kicks off his spring campaign should see him save all that energy for when it actually counts, right at the finish. You don’t fluke placings in the Caulfield Guineas or run gutsy in the Cox Plate unless you belong at the top. He’s run with the big guns and held his own.
Physically he’s built like an athlete and is a smooth mover. Plus, his breeding screams class: speed from Per Incanto, a dash of stamina from his mother’s sire Animal Kingdom. Perfect cocktail for those middle-distance spring features everyone’s chasing. And he’s a pro about it too, not one of those moody types. Honestly, if he doesn’t make waves in the Group 1s this spring, we’ll eat our hats!
Golden Eagle Potential
Evaporate’s got that “it” factor for the 2025 Golden Eagle. If you’re looking for a horse to back early, he looks a genuine standout in futures markets. He profiles very well for the four-year-old’s feature being lightly-raced, oozing tactical flexibility and being a proven Group 1 performer. Not to mention, he can really turn it on late.
He looked sharp as hell in his two lead-up trials at HQ, is finally showing some racehorse maturity, has handled the pressure of some of the country’s most imposing race days as a young horse and the 1500m looks peak for him.
With the Hayes team laser-focused on this race, and Michael Dee almost certainly sticking around for the ride, Evaporate isn’t just a “maybe” or a “keep an eye on him” runner. He’s a legit threat to take the whole thing.
Final Word
Evaporate heads into the 2025 Spring Carnival as one of the most well-rounded of the contenders. Not just your average “oh he’s got potential” type – he’s already thrown it down with the big guns. Remember those Group 1 runs last autumn? Smashing it in the Caulfield Guineas, gutsy as hell in the Cox Plate. The guy’s got grit, no question.
And the Flemington jumpouts? He came back looking sharper than a fresh haircut, quick off the mark, way more chilled out thanks to some handy gear tweaks.
Pedigree-wise, he’s basically built for this. Speed meets staying power in his blood lines and it’s a cocktail made for the big middle-distance races.
What really gets us, though, is how adaptable this horse is. He can sit handy, he can swoop late, doesn’t lose his marbles in the parade ring. The stable’s aiming high and we’re looking up!
Now, for a bit of fun…
Who Would Play Him in a Movie
With the Aussie racing scene absolutely buzzing over Evaporate right now, everyone’s got their eyes glued for the Spring Carnival, and honestly, the buzz feels less like horse racing and more like the lead-up to a Marvel movie. Which got us thinking, if Evaporate was a Hollywood hero, who’d play him? No, seriously, picture this: Evaporate, the movie. But who’s got the chops to pull off the role?
Our perfect casting: Tom Holland.
Yep, Spider-Man himself. He has that classic underdog energy that followed Evaporate earlier in his career, and Holland wasn’t always a household name either. Holland went from “that kid in Billy Elliot” to swinging between skyscrapers. Evaporate’s got that same vibe. Not the stable’s golden child with some older superstars in their ranks, but now? Group 2 winner, big-money runner-up, and just generally punching above his weight. It’s that whole “nobody saw it coming, but now you can’t look away” thing. Holland’s made a career out of that arc.
There’s also the youthful bounce they both share. Evaporate’s basically a four-legged Red Bull. Young, quick, and when he hits his stride, he’s gone. Holland, meanwhile, is out here doing backflips in interviews and making everyone else on set look like they need a nap. Perfect fit, right? Both just radiate that “try and catch me” energy.
Here’s the thing though, Evaporate doesn’t strut around like he owns the place. He just gets in, does the job, and lets his sectionals do the talking. Holland’s got that same low-key confidence. He’s not out here peacocking, he’s just doing his thing and letting the work speak for itself.
Sure, Holland’s got showbiz in his DNA, but he’s made his own mark. Evaporate’s got that blueblood racing pedigree, but he’s not just coasting on family reputation. Both of them had to grind to step into the spotlight.
So next time you see Evaporate tearing up the track, just imagine Tom Holland in the saddle, bringing that wild, unstoppable energy to the big screen!
With Evaporate featuring in early betting on a number of Group 1 races in Sydney and Melbourne, make sure you also check out our exclusive Punters’ Playbook Track Deep Dives to get the lowdown on these standout tracks ahead of the majors!
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