Read on for Ladbrokes Underdog’s Guide to the Caulfield Cup: Long Shot Nominations Worth a Second Look!
Early nominations for the 2025 Caulfield Cup dropped this week, and while we might be down on both numbers and the international contingent, there’s still plenty to unpack with that $5 million carrot dangling out there.
This week, we’re eyeballing 10 Caulfield Cup hopefuls that punters haven’t seemed to touch since noms came out. Are bookies asleep at the wheel? These ones are getting zero love and might be flying way under the radar.
After a ninth at 40/1 behind Without A Fight in 2023, last year’s Caulfield Cup champ Duke De Sessa improved out of sight to snap up the opening leg of the Spring Cups double at $11 odds.
Looking further back through the past list of winners in one of The Heath’s best-known races, and the Cup has been a bit of a graveyard for favourites. Long shots have a solid habit of gatecrashing the party in the traditional Melbourne Cup lead-up race.
From Saint Warden saluting back in 1943 as a triple-figure roughie at 100/1 through to Lindsay Park’s Boom Time who blew the lid off the results as a forgotten $51 champ in 2017 – there’s plenty of examples of the roughies getting up in what is now the world’s richest mile and a half handicap.
So, out of the 146 horses who’ve thrown their hat in the ring this year, who are the dark horses in the mix that could have you screaming “I told you so!” come October 18?
Let’s dive in and see who could be this year’s big surprise.
Al Riffa (IRE) – Joseph O’Brien
Odds: $26
Why Watch: Rolls in with a bit of hype being one of the shorter of the international contingent in early betting. Runs for Cox Plate and two-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. This Irish galloper hasn’t had a ton of runs, but he’s got people talking. A Group 1 winner? Check. Has hauled heavy weights back home and still held his own against some proper horses. O’Brien’s record down under adds to the credentials and confidence of this horse and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulls off something big.
Sayedaty Sadaty (IRE) – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $26
Why Watch: This European import rolled in with a decent rap sheet including a couple of runner-up finishes in Black-Type races; he even held his own in the Epsom Derby as a long shot and didn’t totally embarrass himself over this trip. He was a bit of a flop coming 16th in last year’s Caulfield Cup, but he’s had time to settle into Aussie life now. He’s actually looked sharp for Maher and nabbed back-to-back 2000m wins in Melbourne over the winter. Feels like he’s figuring it out now. Think he’ll improve and see out the distance this time round.
Zardozi – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $26
Why Watch: This former VRC Oaks winner’s got grit for days. She’s the kind that just refuses to go quietly. She nearly snatched The Metrop by the smallest sniff then backed it up with a gutsy fourth in this race last year. She was only a length off the winner in the Melbourne Cup; she’s a very good mare. Still hanging tough too having run third in the Australian Cup behind Light Infantry Man. She’s not just making up numbers. The 2400m? Child’s play for her by now. Honestly, she turns up every time and just digs in. Some horses rack under pressure at this level but that’s not in her DNA.
Half Yours – Tony & Calvin McEvoy
Odds: $26
Why Watch: A super consistent St Jean gelding for the McEvoys who looks ready to take the next step going from strength-to-strength in easier grade over the past six months. He’s one oozing improvement for mine who has a 50% winning strike rate after 10 starts and has won at the 2400m now with that barnstorming 4.5 length romp home in the Caloundra Cup. Obviously needs to go to another level to be competitive against sharper competition but watch for him early in the spring to see what he does. The team have him earmarked for the Group 1 so he’s got their confidence.
Chase Your Dreams (NZ) – Ben, Will & JD Hayes
Odds: $51
Why Watch: A daughter of Ranvet Stakes winner Contributer, this Lindsay Park raced mare is an untapped four-year-old coming into her own at the right time. Her 3YO season was huge with a Group 3 SA Fillies Classic second before a third only 1.28 lengths off Maison Louis in the Group 1 QLD Derby at 2400m at blowout odds. She’s forgotten ahead of the spring but will be more mature. Good stable, right pedigree. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
Golden Snap (JPN) – Katsunori Tanaka
Odds: $51
Why Watch: There’s something to like about this bonny grey Japanese mare and I think she’s got more in the tank. She’ll run all day, no joke. She’s won up to 3000m and nearly pinched the Group 2 Stayers Stakes over a marathon 3600m trip, and that was from a horror draw too only a couple of lengths off the winner. If they keep her fresh for this, the 2400m shouldn’t faze her. She’s basically a place machine, and her major victory at Chukyo earlier this year is a massive tick. Gives me those Mer De Glace vibes.
Struve (JPN) – Noriyuki Hori
Odds: $51
Why Watch: Another Japanese hopeful in the mix, Struve is trained by Noriyuki Hori and comes down under as a lightly raced but mature seven-year-old with a killer 2400m strike rate (4:2-1-0). He’s got a bit of mystery about him with some hit and miss form. Japanese horses often bring a high level of class and toughness to Australia, and with a history of upsets from international runners, Struve could be a sneaky chance if he makes the trip. Last May he snagged a Group 2 over 2500m with the ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira in the saddle lugging plenty of weight (58.5kg). Didn’t quite show up in the Japan Cup finishing 10th last November as an $84 outsider in the markets but was still under five lengths off the winner Do Deuce so don’t write off that form completely. He’ll probably get a friendlier weight assignment in Australia. That could be the game-changer.
Meydaan (IRE) – Simon Crisford
Odds: $51
Why Watch: This English horse is under Simon Crisford’s watch. It’s not the trainer’s first rodeo with the Cup as he’s had past successful campaigns down under in our spring. The 2023 Spring Cups double champ, Without A Fight, was with him and his son Ed prior to transferring to Anthony & Sam Freedman, and European staying form often translates well to the Caulfield Cup. With a smaller international contingent this year, Meydaan might get the opportunity to perform without some of the usual competition. He’s a well-bred Frankel gelding and showed some class placing second in the G3 Glorious Stakes and could follow in the footsteps of Crisford’s past successful Cup campaigns.
Bankers Choice (NZ) – Ben, Will & JD Hayes
Odds: $101
Why Watch: This old campaigner is eight years young and still chugging along well for the Hayes boys. He’s dodged the whole ballot circus thanks to his narrow Mornington Cup triumph back in the autumn to waltz into the field should he show enough in the early spring to warrant a run. He hasn’t exactly fallen off a cliff since punching his golden ticket either. Last time out this evergreen warhorse snagged second at Eagle Farm in the Group 3 Tatt’s Cup trailing Manzoice home by a decent gap. He’ll sneak into the Melbourne Cup without too much weight, looking a chance to outperform his price. Without A Fight did something similar back in 2023 coming through a successful Queensland campaign path before a Caulfield Cup win. Though past barrier issues and form fluctuations remain concerns explaining the triple-figure price, he’s not the worst of the roughies to throw a few dollars on early.
La Crique (NZ) – Simon Alexander
Odds: $101
Why Watch: This Kiwi mare is the definition of reliable and the now seven-year-old has been one of the most consistent things either side of the ditch the past couple of years. Back in 2022 when she was just a filly, she was absolutely flying grabbing second in the NZ Derby which was no small feat. After that, she just kept plugging away at the top level at home on all surfaces and distances. She popped over to Aus that spring to run for 4th as the beaten odds-on fancy in the Empire Rose. And she’s kept going at that level ever since. Going back to February 2024 she has had nine runs and hasn’t finished worse than second, that takes some skill! She’s not been up there in the staying ranks however focusing more on mile to 2000m events, including four straight Group 1 seconds over a stellar if not somewhat frustrating summer – autumn campaign. At her latest she was beaten by a nostril flare in the Group 1 Bonecrusher Stakes (2000m) by El Vencedor on March 8 at Ellerslie. Not totally convinced she’s still got a Group 1 2400m win in her but she’s in the mix and the stable might prepare her campaign around that.
These runners may be far from hot favourites, but boy, they’ve got some serious credentials. We’re talking strong form lines, the international edge, and enough stamina to see out the distance.
They’re slipping under pretty much everyone’s radar, but with their breeding, form, and the right folks backing them, don’t be shocked if one of these hidden gems shakes up the Cup this year.
Don’t forget to check out our The Punters’ Playbook: Caulfield Spring Carnival Deep Dive for the inside word on the jockeys, trainers and races to watch over the following months!
All Caulfield Cup odds quoted are all-in from Ladbrokes, correct at time of publish and subject to change at any time without notice.