The Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival spotlight shifts to Flemington this weekend for one of the toughest tests in Australian racing – the Group 1 Victoria Derby.
A date that holds a special place in the hearts of racing enthusiasts, this year’s three-year-old staying test was turned on its head last week by Observer’s barnstorming win of the Moonee Valley Vase on Ladbrokes Cox Plate, a victory that understandably has left Ciaron Maher’s colt at short odds heading into Saturday’s feature.
Headlining a day that also includes the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and the Empire Rose, this year’s 2500m test will separate the boys from the champions with a grand total of $2 million in prize money up for grabs.
For thoughts on the entire 20-horse field, as well as tips and a betting strategy, check out our 2025 Victoria Derby Runner-by-Runner Preview by scrolling below.
Selections
- 1st – Observer (1)
- 2nd – Miewa (4)
- 3rd – Savisanta (14)
- 4th – Options (3)
1. Observer (4) – Ciaron Maher
- Odds: $2.15 (at time of publish)
Ciaron Maher’s impressive colt goes around on a short backup after saluting at very short odds last week in the Moonee Valley Vase, leading all the way to win by half a length.
It was arguably the most impressive display of the afternoon, in large part thanks to the tactics of Mark Zahra, who took him straight to the front before easing up before the line to save his best for Saturday’s grand final.
In six starts, this talented three-year-old has missed the money only once and was also placed in the Caulfield Guineas three weeks ago, a race he easily could have won if he hadn’t been held up along the rail and forced to shift out.
Off last Saturday’s impressive display, there’s no question he’ll see out 2500m now with Zahra chasing his first-ever Derby win.
2. Highvol (15) – Nick Ryan
- Odds: $21 (at time of publish)
This three-year-old son to Microphone is deep into his prep, having resumed way back in August when he finished down the order in the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield.
He’s improved sharply in recent runs, missing out narrowly on a place in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley in September, before leading for most of the way in the Geelong Classic two weeks ago where he got a little wayward down the straight on his way to running second.
Sandwiched in between was a luckless start in the Caulfield Guineas, where little went his way from the wide gate, beaten over eight lengths by Autumn Boy.
There’s no knock on his fitness, but from another wide alley, he might spend too many tickets crossing to find the front and eventually be found out late.
3. Autumn Mystery (17) – Rory Hunter
- Odds: $13 (at time of publish)
Mystery by name, but certainly not by nature.
Rory Hunter’s gelding has his sights set on a hat-trick following an impressive win of the Group 3 Caulfield Classic last time out; The Autumn Sun three-year-old seen settling toward the tail in the early stages, before shifting over to the fence to dash home late and punch clear by three-quarters of a length.
His previous win in the Derby Preview was full of equal merit, again thanks to a well-timed ride by Blake Shinn, who has managed to showcase his ability and turn of foot on both occasions.
The gate leaves Victoria’s second-leading jockey with work to do on Saturday, but there’s no question this horse has improved and matured since he ran ninth in the Blue Diamond in February.
If he’s somehow in the right spot when it matters, a Top 3 finish is well and truly on the cards.
4. Miewa (8) – Nick Ryan
- Odds: $17 (at time of publish)
Miewa appears to be Nick Ryan’s best chance at tasting Derby success on Saturday.
This lightly-raced son to Japanese sire Maurice is one of the more intriguing runners in the race, coming off two solid runner-up efforts to begin his prep.
The wide gate was against him fresh in the Super Impose on his way to running a narrow second to Options, while there were a few excuses last start in the Caulfield Classic, given he blew the start and Jordan Childs lost the use of his right rein down the straight.
In saying that, he made up enormous ground to run second off a slightly wide run into the turn, and there’s a fair bit to like about his chances now over further with runs over 1800m and 2000m to his name.
Where he winds up from barrier 8 is the big question, but if you’re looking for one set to peak at decent odds, he looks a great bet.
5. Options (7) – Tony & Calvin McEvoy
- Odds: $14 (at time of publish)
Another one on the quick backup after tackling the Moonee Valley Vase last week.
The son of Impending had some fans as the second-elect to Observer, but really only warmed to the task late, beaten 3.75 lengths in the end after settling towards the tail nice and early.
His previous win in the Super Impose ahead of Miewa was eye-catching, bolting in late to record some of the best closing late splits of the day.
A winner of three of his five starts so far, chalk last week’s flat effort up to not handling the tight turns at The Valley from a tricky draw.
6. Providence (12) – Chris Waller
- Odds: $6.00 (at time of publish)
There’s no doubt this three-year-old to Wootoon Bassett will have his fair share of admirers after bolting in late for second last week at The Valley behind Observer in the Vase.
The wide gate saw him settle last before angling into the clear out wide approaching the turn, eventually letting rip with some solid late speed to record the second-fastest final 200m sectional of the meeting.
There’s no rider booked at time of publish, but the wide gate could see him adopt similar tactics now over further.
Considering he was also held up at the top of the straight, the longer trip might see him give the favourite a better run for his money this time, providing he doesn’t settle too far back in the run.
7. Azazel (10) – Mark Walker
- Odds: $20 (at time of publish)
Two wins from three starts make for easy reading on Azazel’s resume.
A son to multiple Group 1 winner Shocking, he put the writing on the wall when winning on debut at Seymour in September, then going on to contest the Super Impose Stakes at Headquarters, where he was three-wide into the straight and potentially looking for further in the end.
That proved to be the case when he came out and won the Geelong Classic over his final few strides last Wednesday, plugging away down the centre of the straight to get the nod in a good go for the line.
He probably appreciated a fast-run race and a wet track that day, so this does shape as a much tougher assignment back on top of the ground from an awkward alley.
8. Arcora (11) – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
- Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
This colt by Justify won here at Flemington third-up in July but has failed to find that same form since resuming.
He was second-last in both the Exford Plate and the Super Impose to begin his prep, then seen searching for a run in the Geelong Classic last week on his way to finishing midfield.
It was only a fair effort in the end, and it’s hard to see him measuring up here.
9. O’sheamus (5) – John O’Shea & Tom Charlton
- Odds: $16 (at time of publish)
Quite the challenge here for this Shamus Award three-year-old, who only shed the maiden tag two back at Warwick Farm over the mile.
In saying that, he was far from disgraced in the Moonee Valley Vase last Saturday, beaten 1.5 lengths by Observer after racing wide and running into a bit of traffic over the final couple of furlongs.
He handled the big step up in distance quite well and draws to do no work again under Kerrin McEvoy, who chases his first win in the Derby. Providing last week wasn’t too much of a gut-busting effort, look for him to settle off the pace in the early stages.
10. Amazake (6) – Ciaron Maher
- Odds: $41 (at time of publish)
The second of Ciaron Maher’s three acceptors is Amazake, who goes around chasing a maiden win in the Derby.
So far, he’s gone unplaced in three of the five races he’s contested, although he did show some improvement in the Caulfield Classic two weeks ago, looming large to grab the lead out of the turn and simply lacking the fitness and the speed to hold on for a win.
There’s no question he’s got some talent, but it would take something very special to follow in the footsteps of Jonny Get Angry if he were to win his first race here on Saturday.
11. Engine Of War (9) – Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
- Odds: $20 (at time of publish)
Hard to know what to make of this Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr hopeful.
He was one of the runs of the meeting two back in Derby Preview, timing his run (almost) to perfection down the outside to finish second to Autumn Mystery in a head bob.
The slow tempo didn’t quite suit him again two weeks later in the Caulfield Classic however, beaten just under four lengths after rolling further forward and fading badly down the straight.
Mark Zahra said post-race that blinkers and a more patient ride might do the trick, with the job now falling in Tommy Berry’s hands with no gear change noted. From a wide gate, the double-figure price is probably about right.
12. Matsuda (19) – Ciaron Maher
- Odds: $41 (at time of publish)
Matsuda brained his rivals to claim his maiden by five lengths at Sale two back, a run that is sure to draw in a few keen punters looking for one at longer odds.
The son of Maurice backed that effort up by running fourth in the Geelong Classic two weeks ago, finishing within a length of Azazel after weakening a little around the 200m mark.
Barrier 19 hurts his chances a bit, but he’s rock-hard fit and capable of settling in the first half of the field nice and early and holding his own. Certainly not the worst.
13. One Step Closer (2) – John O’Shea and Tom Charlton
- Odds: $41 (at time of publish)
This three-year-old by Castelvecchio made the journey up from Sydney last week to contest the Vase at Moonee Valley, a race that was never really run to suit given the slow tempo.
He was up on the rail early before shifting out to track wide into the straight, letting down to plug away and run fourth behind Observer.
His previous effort in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill was a total forgive from an awful gate, while his previous effort saw him shed his maiden tag at Goulburn over 1500m ahead of Freddie Bassett, who finished within two lengths of the winner in the Geelong Classic.
Jye McNeil has been in hot form of late, but on a quick backup, this does look a big ask stepping up another level.
14. Savisanta (3) – Chris Waller
- Odds: $19 (at time of publish)
Chris Waller has opted to go around on the short backup with this promising gelding by Savabeel, who has managed to feature in the money in all four races he’s contested.
Two back, he was a distant runner-up to Matsuda at Sale, then heading to Geelong last week, where he was tucked away on the fence and bumped down the straight after shifting out to find the line for third.
Not surprisingly, his late splits from the 400m mark stand out strongly on paper as some of the fastest of the meeting, while there’s a lot to like about him over longer now with the low barrier working in his favour this time. Definitely worth including in multiples with a stack of fitness on his side.
15. Mcwoody (16) – Mark Walker
- Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
A son to Group 1 winner Alabama Express, McWoody presents as one of the rougher chances in the Derby with only two starts to his name.
The first saw him win on debut at Wodonga in mid-September, before stepping out four weeks later in the Caulfield Classic, where he handled the sharp rise in trip and class quite well to run fifth, beaten only a length.
Jamie Kah pilots, but from a sticky gate facing a serious rise in class, he looks unlikely.
16. Deal Done Fast (1) – Matt Cumani
- Odds: $35 (at time of publish)
Matt Cumani’s colt by Dundeel is still searching for his first win, going close on debut at Ballarat earlier in September, where he went down swinging in a diving finish.
He’s been around the mark in two runs since, just missing out on a place in the Derby Preview two back here at Headquarters, and then running on well out wide in the Caulfield Classic to grab fourth in a fast finish.
Daniel Stackhouse has a good feel for him now, but like others searching for his first win, he’s likely to find some of these a touch too good.
Emergencies
- Arabian Prince (20) – Michael Kent
- Freddie Bassett (14) – Annabel & Rob Archibald
- Crack A Deel (13) – Henry Dwyer
- Super Paradise (18) – Andrew Forsman