Saturday’s Best Bets: Randwick, Caulfield, Doomben

TEMPTED (9) has been freshened since winning the Group 1 Surround Stakes six weeks ago.

While she was able to win that race over 1400m, I think Ciaron Maher has pulled the right rein, dropping her back to 1200m given she was tiring late.

She loves this course and distance having won three of four starts, including first-up this preparation with her only loss being a second to the world’s best sprinter Ka Ying Rising in The Everest.

The Street Boss filly looked super winning a recent trial, and that will have tuned her up nicely for the Arrowfield Sprint.

OHOPE WINS (1) was gallant in defeat last start in the Vinery Stud Stakes and can bounce back in the Group 1 Australian Oaks.

The Chris Waller-trained filly came wide on the turn and battled strongly but being five weeks between runs against fitter horses told, and she finished just under a length fourth.

The former Kiwi brought excellent form with her across the ditch including the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks so the rise to 2400m won’t faze her.

James McDonald sticks and will give her every chance.

MACHINE GUN GRACIE (12) returned to her best last start in the Group 3 Epona Stakes.

Following a wide run first-up at Flemington over a mile, Team Hayes successfully adopted a change of tactics that resulted in a 1.95 length victory.

It’s an unusual setup stepping up to two miles third-up off a 1900m race, but she was pulling away from them in the final furlong, and her CV shows wins shows back-to-back wins in the WA Oaks and the WATC Derby, both over 2400m.

She gets in with a postage stamp weight of 51kg.

LADY SHENANDOAH (2) had the misfortune of running into Autumn Glow last start in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes, so it was no wonder she was in a mood prior to the race.

To her credit, she found the line well to finish 3.61 lengths fourth.

The Chris Waller-trained mare’s form was good prior to that with back-to-back third placings to the flying Joliestar.

She won her only previous race over this course and distance by a space which was the Group 1 Flight Stakes.

With Pride Of Jenni in the race, there will be no shortage of speed and that will aid her and James McDonald’s cause.

Given what we’ve seen from AUTUMN GLOW (7) in her amazing run of 11 undefeated races, it’s hard to see her not making the Queen Elizabeth Stakes win number 12.

The Chris Waller-trained mare was simply amazing last start in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes where she produced her customary devastating turn of foot to put her rivals away quickly and win by 2.79 lengths.

This is her first attempt at 2000m which is obviously a query, but she’s had plenty of work since last start and has an extreme will to win.

James McDonald will give her the run of the race and hopefully we’ll be awe of this magnificent mare once again.

GANGSTA GRANNY (3) looks ideally suited in the Sapphire Stakes, in my opinion.

She impressed when winning the Wenona Girl Quality first-up from a spell and ran another strong race when narrowly beaten in the Star Kingdom most recently.

With more favourable weight conditions against this field and James McDonald staying on board, I can’t find a reason why she won’t be in the finish again.

The Provincial Championship Final shapes as an ideal feature for BUFFALO (6).

He proved his quality by placing at Group 1 level during last year’s Championships, and after almost a year on the sidelines, he made a striking return with a win in the Newcastle Qualifier for this event.

He should take good improvement from that run, and although he’s drawn wide, he’s expected to settle back anyway before unleashing his strong finishing speed.

We backed PROFOUNDLY (3) in her win in last week’s Adrian Knox Stakes, and I’m happy to stay with her on the quick turnaround.

She has been consistent across her ten career starts, but this preparation she has clearly gone up a level. After resuming with a BM72 win at Warwick Farm, the daughter of Farnan produced a strong late effort to finish third in the Group 3 Kembla Classic.

She drew late market support in last weekend’s 2000m fillies’ race and again finished powerfully, pulling clear to score by over two lengths. I like that she backs up quickly and steps up in distance again.

This year’s Sydney Cup appears wide open with plenty of genuine contenders, but I’m leaning towards the topweight, RIVER OF STARS (1).

After finishing in the placings in this race last year at just her second Australian start, she went on to perform strongly throughout the Spring Carnival, including a second in the Caulfield Cup and a fourth in the Melbourne Cup.

While she failed to fire over 1400m in the Apollo Stakes first-up, she has since produced solid efforts in the Sky High and the Tancred, and the rise to 3200m at this stage of her campaign looks ideal. With James McDonald aboard, she appeals at genuine each way odds.

The Queen Of The Turf Stakes brings together some of the country’s top mares, but I’ve found it hard to go past PRIDE OF JENNI (1).

She produced a standout performance on this program two years ago with a remarkable win in the Queen Elizabeth, and she has remained one of the stars of Australian racing ever since.

Although she hasn’t won in two runs this preparation, she showed plenty of determination to place in the All-Star Mile first-up before finishing a narrow second in the Australian Cup most recently. Now fitter, dropping back to a mile and facing her own sex, she looks set to take control and prove very hard to catch.

AUTUMN GLOW (7) will put her unbeaten record on the line once more in the 2026 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and it’s no surprise she has opened a clear favourite.

Her winning streak now stands at 11, following victories in the Apollo Stakes, Verry Elleegant Stakes and George Ryder this preparation, with each performance highlighting her class.

I expect that run to continue, so I’m selecting her to win as part of a Same Race Multi, adding SIR DELIUS (2) to finish in the top three and DUBAI HONOUR (1) to place in the top four to boost the odds.

While neither looks capable of defeating Autumn Glow, both are race-fit and well-prepared, and should be competitive for the minor placings.

Same Race Multi selections:

• No. 7 Autumn Glow (Win)
• No. 2 Sir Delius (Top 3)
• No. 1 Dubai Honour (Top 4)

DIRTY LOOK (13) is a filly with upside and one I’m happy to stick with from the Grahame Begg yard. 

She arguably should’ve won by panels at Sandown two back after getting held up, and didn’t do herself any favours with a slow getaway last time when stepping to 1400m, forced to settle for second in a small field. 

Drawn to roll a touch closer here, she looks well placed now with that 1400m run under the belt and gets her chance to bounce back. 

Open race, but BACASH (1) maps to roll forward from the middle draw and give them something to catch 

The Hayes boys had this son of Cosmic Force in the Listed VRC Sprint at Headquarters a fortnight ago, and he handled the heavy just fine when sticking on for third fresh. 

He’ll be better suited on a firmer deck here, boasts a tidy second-up record with two placings, and looks well placed dropping back a level with the claim taking some weight off. 

OHOPE WINS (1) is worth another chance in the Oaks. She was a little plain as a well-backed runner in the Vinery Stud Stakes, but there were excuses — caught wide, first-up off a long break, and spotting them a start early. 

The Chris Waller filly still has plenty of upside, and if her New Zealand form is anything to go by, she’ll improve sharply the deeper she gets into the prep. 

CAMPALDINO (7) looks a genuine each-way play at odds in the Sydney Cup. Last year’s Brisbane Cup winner was strong winning the Listed Randwick City Stakes second-up over shorter, then got the right ride in the Chairman’s Stakes where he finished a length off Newlook. 

On the quick back-up and dropping in the weights, he maps to settle closer to the speed and can give a bold sight again. 

LADY SHENANDOAH (2) doesn’t win out of turn, but her latest run in the George Ryder had plenty of merit. The Snitzel mare was in the inferior ground yet still charged home for fourth. 

Back to mares’ grade suits, and with James McDonald back aboard, she gets all the right ticks. She’s proven at the mile, draws to get the right run again, and with a solid fitness base, she’ll take holding out. 

AUTUMN GLOW (7) is a deserving odds-on favourite and nothing else really needs to be said about Chris Waller’s unbeaten mare that hasn’t already been written.  

All things being equal, AELIANA (8) should be her main competition and running second on the back of two brilliant runs to take out the Ranvet and Tancred Stakes in succession, while DUBAI HONOUR (1) made a serious impression in the latter running a place – his first start in Australia since running second to Via Sistina in last year’s Queen Elizabeth.  

TEMPTED (9) is odds-on to make it a hat-trick this autumn when she takes on a stacked field of fellow 3YOs in the Arrowfield, and I’m finding it mighty hard to tip against this flying Ciaron Maher-trained filly.

The classy daughter of Street Boss has been the picture of consistency all throughout her 11-start career to date and she finally broke through at elite level last time out in the Surround Stakes.

She didn’t have much to spare over Savvy Hallie on the line second-up over the 1400m here but did enough to suggest she can go on with it now.

We saw what she did against the best sprinters globally in last year’s The Everest when flashing into second behind Ka Ying Rising, and that horse has just gone from strength to strength since his successful raid down under.

Tempted’s Randwick record is superior (5:4-1-0) and I love that she’s back to the six furlongs at this stage of her prep.

Won the Percy Sykes at the course and distance on this day 12 months ago, has been flawless this prep and kept fit with a strong Rosehill trial win in the wet late last month.

Jockey Chad Schofield has won every race he’s partnered her in; she gets conditions to suit and will take the power of beating.

Can WOOTTON VERNI (5) beat Autumn Glow? Absolutely not. Is he way overs for a run in the money? You bet.

One of my favourite plays is finding an underrated roughie to run top three behind a better fancied stablemate and this fellow Waller-trained galloper at 70/1 has huge appeal for mine.

Winner of the Rosehill Gold Cup (2000m) at the track and trip by over two lengths last November, he took a while to get back to his best this time in.

Was well beaten in the Apollo and Verry Elleegant behind AG before a fifth in the Sky High when boxing on well.

Improved on a Soft (7) at Rosehill on March 28 to easily account for Caviar Heights in the Group 2 Neville Sellwood (2000m).

While that might not be the best form race, his run was enormous and he’s rock hard fit now.

Tommy Berry sticks with and this guy is a genuine specialist at the distance (7:5-1-0).

Gets the sting out of the track again and can outrace his price for sure.

Check out all of my best value Saturday Roughies at Randwick over at Hendo’s Hopefuls!

The day’s opening Group 1 features a quality field of 3YO staying fillies including the favourite OHOPE WINS (1) who looks a great chance to post her first Aussie victory for the Waller stable.

The consistent Ocean Park filly overcame gate 14 of 17 back across the Tasman in February’s Group 1 NZ Oaks (2400m) to defeat subsequent NZ Derby runner-up Autumn Glory by over two lengths making up plenty of ground from the back before heading to Sydney.

She was favourite fresh on Slipper Day in the Vinery and was far from disgraced running under a length fourth to upset champ Belle Cheval over the 2000m.

Fitter for the run, she’s got that first Australian start behind her now and will only improve getting back up to her NZ Derby winning trip.

Not all of them are proven over the mile and half but she’s dour and has the best hoop in the business – J-Mac – sticking in the saddle.

What Waller and McDonald have been doing this carnival is insane and I think this girl can show up and keep the Group 1s coming for them.

The Sydney Cup is always a race I find particularly tough from a betting perspective year in year out and this season is no different.

Looking for some Each Way value and I’ve landed on the improving Phillip Stokes-trained HIGHLAND BLING (15) who should be airborne carrying just 51kg.

The OTI Racing-owned five-year-old has winning form up to 2550m and looks like he’ll see out the 3200m distance based on his latest.

Lightly raced with Saturday marking his 16^th start, his best win to date was at Flemington last September when carting 58kg to a 1.25 length victory in a BM70 over the aforementioned 2550m.

Was in South Australia earlier in the year running out of his skin for back-to-back seconds at Morphettville in the Group 3 Lord Reims (2600m) and Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) by a combined losing margin of under a quarter-length.

Unlucky not to come away with the Cup trophy last start when carrying 53kg from gate 17 of 18 and having to do some early work.

Gets his chance now on an even lighter weight from a far more favourable alley.

Ben Thompson comes aboard for the ride, and from the gate I can see him land on pace with the ability to stick on with the task.

Wow! The Queen Of The Turf is the race of the day for mine and I’m going to tip one of my absolute favs putting PRIDE OF JENNI (1) on top.

Ciaron Maher’s front-running queen just continues to show up. And to think she was previously retired!

She chases her first win since her 4.5 length romp home over Leica Lucy at HQ in the Empire Rose last Melbourne Cup Carnival, but her latest start was simply breathtaking even though she didn’t salute.

First-up in the All-Star Mile she was only a half-length off the dual champ Tom Kitten before going down a nostril flare to another successfully defending champ Light Infantry Man in the Australian Cup over 2000m also at Flemington.

She set that up for him never giving up and continuing to fight all-the-way.

There’s no mare more deserving to bounce back and come away with the first prize now.

While she’s arguably more effective on her Melbourne leg, she’s proven at Randwick (5:1-1-0) and comes back to the mile now which is ideal.

Her 1600m strike rate is very solid (18:7-3-1), Bates continues his lovely association from the inside alley and if this tenacious girl doesn’t win, it’ll only be by a whisker.

AUTUMN GLOW (2) is very short, but why wouldn’t she be?

Chris Waller’s undefeated The Autumn Sun four-year-old continues to race her way towards immortality.

Heavily backed to keep the streak alive on Saturday, she comes in hot out to extend her picket fence and secure her third elite level on the trot.

She’s been nothing short of brilliant this prep and is fresh off a dominant nearly three-length George Ryder (1500m) win over Gringotts.

Winx (2018 & 2019) twice completed the George Ryder / Queen Elizabeth double that Autumn Glow is all the rage to emulate this autumn.

A genuine Randwick specialist with six wins at the track already on her glowing CV, Saturday has her up in trip for the first time looking for her maiden 2000m victory which she’s tipped to secure without issue.

Drawn a dream in gate two with the country’s most winningest Group 1 jockey James McDonald aboard, it isn’t hard to see why Autumn Glow dominates the Queen Elizabeth betting markets

She’s chasing her fourth Group 1 and a perfect 12‑from‑12 record, and on everything she’s shown this prep, she’s the clear top pick to get it done.