After dominating most of the series opener and claiming an emphatic victory in game two, Queensland heads into the 2026 State of Origin decider at Suncorp Stadium as a warm favourite to retain the shield.
NSW has made a raft of somewhat bemusing changes – and failed to make other seemingly logical line-up alterations – and head to Brisbane with backs firmly against the wall.
The Maroons were steaming towards a convincing Sydney victory in game one, leading 20-6 when Kalyn Ponga was controversially sent off with 22 minutes to go.
Though they made hard work of it, the Blues eroded the deficit against a 12-man opponent with Nathan Cleary and Ethan Strange starring, before James Tedesco snatched the match-winner with a minute to go.
NSW raced to a 12-2 lead in game two at the MCG but was completely outclassed from that point, crashing to a 44-24 loss.
With Origin newcomer Sam Walker on fire again and hooker Harry Grant shining, the Maroons converted almost every opportunity and made the Blues’ backline defence look barely NRL-level.
Selwyn Cobbo finished with a hat-trick – nullifying NSW winger Mark Nawaqanitawase’s debut double – while Jojo Fifita and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continued their series dominance over their opposite numbers to bag tries.
While Cleary’s off night and the lack of impetus from Mitch Moses and Reece Robson came in for scrutiny, it was also another fairly toothless display from the NSW pack – props Payne Haas, Mitch Barnett and Addin Fonua-Blake tallied just 152 metres between them.
Under-fire coach Laurie Daley has axed Brian To’o, Kotoni Staggs and Dylan Lucas from the game two starting line-up, and relegated Tolu Koula to the six-man bench and Victor Radley to 20th man. Strange is a late withdrawal from the interchange with injury, replaced by Matt Burton.
Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton are the new centres, while Dolphins centre Jack Bostock will debut on the wing. Big-game specialist Liam Martin returns in the second-row and Haumole Olaukau’atu gets a recall on the bench, where Blayke Brailey returns from injury.
Queensland has the luxury of naming an unchanged starting side, while Patrick Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai return on the interchange for Lindsay Collins and Kulikefu Finefeuaki.
The historical Origin decider stats make daunting reading for the Blues. In 24 game three clashes where the series has still been alive, Queensland has won 16 times to NSW’s six, with two drawn (the Maroons retained the shield on both occasions as the current holders).
Meanwhile, the Blues have won just three of 14 Suncorp Stadium-hosted deciders; their victories on enemy soil came in 1994, 2005 and – in a gutsy 14-4 result with the Blues missing Cleary – 2024 under Michael Maguire.
The Maroons’ overall record in Queensland is 40-23-1, while they have won 15 of the last 20 Origins in the Suncorp cauldron. But the Blues have won the last two, following up their victory in the 2024 decider with an 18-6 result in the 2025 series opener.
The last 10 Origins in Brisbane have produced totals of 38 points or less.
But an extraordinary turnaround will be required by the Blues, who have barely put together 20 minutes of quality football against a 13-man opposition in this series. Rarely has an Origin team looked so listless.
The best of Cleary, Moses and Tedesco can pull NSW out of the mire, but Queensland’s big names and role-players have been outstanding in both games so far and will smell blood in the water in front of a baying Suncorp Stadium throng.
Prediction: Back Queensland to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.90
First Try Scorer: Robert Toia (Queensland) @ $14.00
Man of the Match: Harry Grant (Queensland) @ $9.50
SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND WIN / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SAM WALKER 8+ POINTS @ $28.54