It’s often referred to as the greatest and most pure weekend of AFL footy on the calendar, and the two fixtured preliminary finals promise to live up to that title in every way, shape and form.
Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Brisbane are all vying for a spot in the 2026 AFL Grand Final next Saturday, with the Dockers and Lions both currently favoured in the Ladbrokes market to do just that.
It’s win or go home for all four teams, so we’ve run the rule over both clashes to bring you our thoughts, analysis and best-value betting plays ahead of the Preliminary Finals.
Wharfie Time at the SCG?
The Fremantle Dockers will be hoping for just that as they enter their preliminary final as $1.55 favourites against the Sydney Swans.
After lowering their colours against the Hawks in their first final, Justin Longmuir’s men returned to their fast-paced and attacking style when they defeated Geelong 120-106. Luke Jackson, who is the best value of any player in this year’s Brownlow at $15 to finish top 10, starred for the Dockers with 25 disposals, two goals, 12 score involvements, and 35 hit-outs.
Brennan Cox (calf) and Brandon Walker (ankle) will push their case for a return, strengthening Freo’s back half against the three Swans talls and Tom Papley.
As for Sydney, they delivered the performance of the season in their qualifying final against Brisbane, running out 53-point winners without their suspended stars and as severe underdogs.
It wasn’t all good news, however, with captain Callum Mills tearing his ACL and breaking Swans fans hearts across the country. Justin McInerney will be the likely replacement as he pushes his case after a 15-week hamstring issue.
The historical insights all point towards Sydney in this one having won 12 of their past 13 at home, but the Mills injury makes it more unlikely than ever that they can repeat the dose they gave the Lions two weeks ago.
It could be a genuine big man shoot-out between Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss vs Charlie Curnow, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean, but we’re taking the Dockers to win that every day of the week.
Prediction: Fremantle To Win @ $1.55
Value: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.25
Player Pick: Luke Jackson (Fremantle) 20+ Disposals @ $1.90
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Predictions
Another qualifying final winner entering their prelim as underdogs, Hawthorn will look to end Brisbane’s reign when they clash at the MCG on Saturday evening.
The Hawks dismantled the Dockers in their first final, with a 32-point win on the back of insane pressure and 26 disposals, 12 intercepts and 10 marks from James Sicily.
It is unlikely that Sam Mitchell will make any changes to the team who successfully anchored Wharfie Time, but he has an embarrassment of riches with Box Hill also in Sunday’s VFL Grand Final.
It’s a similar story for Chris Fagan and his Lions coaching staff, who have players the ilk of Bruce Reville, Lincoln McCarthy, and Dan Annable waiting in the wings.
The Lions are clearly the best side in the competition when they turn up like they did against Adelaide, putting five goals on the Crows in the first seven minutes of the match and eventually running out 53-point victors.
Charlie Cameron (5 goals) and Zac Bailey (3) are unstoppable when they get going, while Fages will be over the moon at the sight of Hugh McCluggage finding form with two goals.
While they are clearly a force at the Gabba, the MCG holds no demons for the Lions who have won their past seven at the venue.
The game of the round (just) but the champs should have the experience required when the game is in the balance late in Q4.
Prediction: Brisbane To Win @ $1.82
Value: Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) 3+ Goals @ $2.90
Player Pick: Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) 24+ Disposals @ $1.73