Saturday Roughie Tips – October 3, 2026
Looking for the top Saturday roughies to get behind this weekend? With Group 1 races north and south, Ladbrokes have your back with our top longshots to add into your exotics.
We only had three roughie tips last weekend and, with one scratched, we were down to two. Finding Verona Rose for a Golden Pendant placing at a big price meant we finished well on top.
There are two packed Group 1 race cards to turn our attention to this weekend with a host of Ladbrokes Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup lead-up races running at Randwick and Flemington.
Let’s see if we can’t unearth the best value runners as we move into October spring racing.
Ladbrokes’ Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson is at it again looking past the favourites, and she’s been kind enough to share her expert roughie tips right here.
What are the Best Value Racing Tips for October 3?
- Flemington Race 5 – No. 2 Fireball Miss
- Randwick Race 6 – No. 5 De Armas
- Flemington Race 6 – No. 6 Buggsy
- Randwick Race 7 – No. 8 Thebudgiesmugla
- Randwick Race 8 – No. 17 Declichy Boulevard
- Flemington Race 8 – No. 13 Saint George
- Randwick Race 9 – No. 1 Mazu
- Flemington Race 9 – No. 5 Losesomewinmore
Flemington Race 5 – First-Up Fireworks
No. 2 Fireball Miss
FIREBALL MISS (5) resumes in the Rose Of Kingston Stakes and Maher’s talented Bivouac four-year-old looks overs to kick off with a Top 3 run.
She’s a three-time winner including a huge Brisbane Winter campaign once switching from Gollan to Maher to complete the Group 2 The Roses – Queensland Oaks double as a filly paying big odds on both occasions.
While 1400m is short of her preferred and she’ll improve over further as her spring progresses, as a proven Group 1 winner on class alone she has a few of these covered.
Only fair in her lead-up trial and giving away the fitness edge plus weight, her price is understandable, but Bates knows her well and she’s smart.
Watch for her late.
| 2. Fireball Miss (5) J: Declan Bates 58.5kg 4311x T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Resuming after a four months break. Finished off last preparation winning by 1.3 len Eagle Farm G1 Qld Oaks June 6 over 2200m defeating Panova with 56.5kg at $8.50. On debut fifth of 12 at Warwick Farm Super 3yo Mdn-Sw February 4 over 1200m, soft track; 5.5 len behind Journeyman with 55kg at $51. Will improve on whatever she does in this. | |||
Randwick Race 6 – De Value
No. 5 De Armas
DE ARMAS (1) is one of two Waller-trained fillies in a compact Flight Stakes field who looks value to run in the money behind her better fancied stablemate Striking Alibi.
This Kiwi-bred daughter of Ardrossan has a 50% winning strike rate from four runs to date so knows how to find the line.
Her opening three starts were across the Tasman including a two-length sprint win at Listed level last November and a brave fourth at double-figures behind Dream Roca in the Karaka Millions 2YO.
Debuted down under on September 23 at Warwick Farm lumping a hefty 61kg as a 70/1 outsider in a BM68 for 3YOs over 1200m and was brave for her fifth to Blessed Eagle.
She was allowed to ease back late with the team not wanting to bust her chops so early into her campaign, and I’m tipping her to improve notably.
Right up in distance and grade now, so she’s being thrown in the deep end, but she’ll relish the inside alley and weight drop back to 56kg.
Zac Lloyd is riding in terrific form and comes aboard here.
She’ll settle back and has the time and fitness now to finish strong.
| 5. De Armas (1) J: Zac Lloyd 56kg 1x4x5 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Racing second-up today. Last outing eased back early on 5th of 10 in a 3yo Bm68 at Warwick Farm on September 23 over 1200m, on a slow track; 3.5 len behind Blessed Eagle carrying 61kg at $71. At only start last preparation 4th of 14 in the LR Karaka Millions 2yo at Ellerslie on January 24 over 1200m, on a slow track; 3.5 len behind Dream Roca carrying 55kg at $10. Still early in the prep and can run into the minor money. | |||
Flemington Race 6 – Buzzing Chance
No. 6 Buggsy
We’ve got a great edition of the Danehill with a host of in-form three-year-olds eyeing the Coolmore Stud Stakes including the underrated BUGGSY (2) for Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr.
This consistent Harry Angel colt has had four runs for two wins and a third, so is putting it all together at the right time.
Third in a Listed sprint behind Gin Twist during the autumn, he resumed a first-up winner narrowly at Sandown on a wet track before his close fourth only 1.45 lengths off Paradoxium down the straight here in the Group 3 Poseidon Stakes at a big price.
Left alone in the markets again but fit third-up and Craig Williams sticks in the saddle.
Turnbull Stakes Day will be run on Heavy going and that suits this proven mudlark.
Willow should allow him to get back, but he handles the conditions and the straight so I’m not discounting him.
| 6. Buggsy (2) J: Craig Williams 57kg 13×14 T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | |||
| Third-up today. First-up won by a head in a 3yo Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1000m in the wet defeating Jacaranda carrying 53kg at $3.20. Second run from a spell ran on strongly from last on the turn; 4th of 10 in the G3 Poseidon Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1100m, 1.5 len behind Paradoxium carrying 57kg at $18. Going well but can’t see him improving enough. | |||
Randwick Race 7 – Can Smuggle a Place
No. 8 Thebudgiesmugla
The Metropolitan has been downgraded to a Group 2 race this year but there’s still class galore in this traditional Spring Cups lead-up, and one that has jumped out at the price for a run in the money is THEBUDGIESMUGLA (9).
Bjorn Baker’s tough Redwood six-year-old has been building a consistent staying profile, highlighted by back-to-back victories in the Winter Cup and Caloundra Cup earlier this year before producing two brave Sydney performances against stronger opposition.
He wasn’t far away when fourth in both the Group 3 Premier’s Cup and the Listed City Tatt’s Club Cup over 2400m, the latter seeing him stick on gamely after racing on speed with 59kg behind So You Are.
A proven distance specialist with a strong record at the trip, solid Soft track credentials, and an excellent record when ridden by Gibbons, he looks well placed to surprise in this year’s Metropolitan.
Expect him to settle off the pace and be charging home late, making him an attractive exotics inclusion in a market dominated by Aethelwulf.
| 8. Thebudgiesmugla (9) J: Dylan Gibbons 55kg 61144 T: Bjorn Baker | |||
| Recent form sound. At the latest run raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at this track on September 5 over 2400m, 3 len behind So You Are with 59kg at $2.90. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 8 in the G3 Premier’s Cup at this track on August 22 over 2000m, on a slow track; 1.1 len behind Boniface with 55kg at $6. Looks a strong top-three prospect in this tougher contest. | |||
Randwick Race 8 – Street Smart Shot
No. 17 Declichy Boulevard
DECLICHY BOULEVARD (2) looks the standout roughie in the 2026 Epsom Handicap for mine.
The Chris Waller-trained mare comes into the Group 1 in excellent touch after producing a dominant victory over the Randwick mile, carrying a hefty weight and still proving too strong for her rivals.
A stakes-performed mare with plenty of upside, she has returned in terrific order this preparation, opening with a strong third at Goulburn before taking her form to another level when charging home to score impressively at this track and distance last start.
Importantly, she’s now third-up, a stage of the campaign where she has previously performed well, and she looks set to peak on Saturday.
The mile clearly suits, she maps to settle off midfield and conserve energy, and with just 50kg on her back under the handicap conditions, she gets every chance to finish strongly when the pressure goes on late.
Racing in top form, loves the Randwick mile and gets in with a lightweight.
At around the $20 mark at time of publish, she’s the value play.
Check out my full Epsom Handicap 2026 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets now!
| 17. Declichy Boulevard (2) J: Andrew Adkins 50kg 15×31 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 3rd of 16 in a Goul Cup Mbm98 at Goulburn on August 23 over 1400m, 1.0 len behind Just Party carrying 55.5kg at $6.50. Second run from a spell favourite; came from midfield and won by 2.25 len in a Bm88 at this track on September 19 over 1600m defeating Knobelas carrying 59.5kg at $2.50. Racing well. In great shape and ticks a few boxes at the good odds. | |||
Flemington Race 8 – Saintly Price
No. 13 Saint George
While I’m on the favourite to win this year’s Turnbull, for value in the exotics I’m happy to throw a little something on SAINT GEORGE (13) who looks somewhat forgotten by the punters ($13 at time of publish).
The Ciaron Maher-trained grey has been in excellent form this spring and arguably produced one of the tougher performances of the season when runner-up in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield.
After returning with a dominant 2000m victory under the hefty impost of 61.5kg, the son of Roaring Lion backed it up with another brave effort when finishing second to stablemate Zahrann despite carrying 58.5kg and jumping from the extreme outside gate.
In contrast, the winner enjoyed a much kinder run from barrier six with 3.5kg less on his back, making Saint George’s performance better than it first appears.
The return to Flemington looks ideal and his proven record at both the track and distance adds further confidence.
With race fitness on his side and a likely more economical run in transit, Saint George profiles as the type of horse capable of outperforming his market quote against some of the better-fancied runners.
If he reproduces his Naturalism effort under more favourable circumstances, a Top 3 finish is well within reach.
Read my complete Turnbull Stakes 2026 Predictions, Tips & Best Bets now!
| 13. Saint George (12) J: Michael Dee 55kg x4112 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start 2nd of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 1.0 len behind Zahrann with 58.5kg at $3.60. The start before that won by 1.3 len in a Qlty at Caulfield on August 29 over 2000m in soft going defeating Litzdeel with 61.5kg at $5.50. Keeps racing well but this is a tough ask. | |||
Randwick Race 9 – My Main Man
No. 1 Mazu
MAZU (13) rewarded me first-up with Joe Pride’s veteran Maurice eight-year-old showing he still had plenty left to give beating the class mare Joliestar home at blowout odds here on September 19 with his all-the-way victory in the Group 2 The Shorts (1100m).
Look, plenty went his way from the inside alley that day and he won’t get the same luck from wide out now, but King will do her best to give him every chance at another good performance.
He’ll likely cross and lead, the map isn’t great, but he’s tough and was third in the Group 1 The Galaxy second-up last time out.
Tempted wins this year’s Premiere Stakes, but this guy is never far off them at the top level and can outrace his price hanging on if he doesn’t burn too much energy early.
| 1. Mazu (13) J: Rachel King 58.5kg 361×1 T: Joseph Pride | |||
| Second run back. First-up after five months won by a neck in a G2 The Shorts at this track on September 19 over 1100m defeating Joliestar carrying 56kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 12 in a G1 The Galaxy at Rosehill on March 21 over 1100m, on a slow track; head behind Marhoona with 56.5kg at $18. Ugly map for this and place preferred. | |||
Flemington Race 9 – Win More
No. 5 Losesomewinmore
Wide-open edition of the Gilgai this year and I’m going to throw a little something the way of the in-form LOSESOMEWINMORE (7) who brings winning form into the sprint.
Richard & Chantelle Jolly’s All Too Hard gelding is a gun down the ‘Straight Six’ and is a genuine Flemington track specialist (10:6-0-0).
He’s only had one go on Heavy going to run third two back in the Group 3 Norman Carlyon behind Cavalry Girl, so he should get through the going without issue.
Beat De Bergerac in the Listed Straight Six back in mid-May and was outstanding at a similar double-figure quote second-up on September 12 beating Hedged by a half-length in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis.
Same track and trip now, he’s fit and flying and Craig Williams sticks with.
The knock? He’s up from just 53kg to 59kg and that’s some ask especially as he now meets Hedged 4.5kg worse in the weights.
That said, he’s going too good for mine to ignore, and I think he’ll be there when it counts.
| 5. Losesomewinmore (7) J: Craig Williams 59kg 14531 T: Richard & Chantelle Jolly | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run ran on from midfield and won by 0.5 len in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality at this track on September 12 over 1200m defeating Hedged carrying 53kg at $12. The race before that 3rd of 8 in the G3 Carlyon Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1000m, on rain affected going; 1.5 len behind Cavalry Girl carrying 58kg at $7.50. Had weight advantage last time and doesn’t want it too wet but can’t discount. | |||
Saturday Racing Previews
- Epsom Handicap Day (Randwick)
- Turnbull Stakes Day (Flemington)
- Eagle Farm
Good luck punters!