After 24 rounds of chaos, controversy and clutch performances, the top eight is locked, and the opening weekend of the 2025 AFL Finals Series throws up four mouthwatering contests.
From minor premiers Adelaide reigniting their rivalry with a wobbly Collingwood to Gold Coast making their long-awaited September debut against the Dockers, there’s something on the line in every single match – and no second chances for half the field.
We dive into every match this weekend and provide our best AFL Finals Week 1 preview and betting plays.
The 2025 AFL Finals Series kicks off with the spiciest of match-ups when the Adelaide Crows host Collingwood on Thursday night.
It’s been less than three weeks since the Izak Rankine saga left the Crows’ season hanging in the balance, and the two sides will meet again after they held on for a three-point win on the night.
That victory snapped Adelaide’s 10-game losing streak against the Pies and cemented the minor premiership.
Max Michalanney will return from a hamstring injury for the Crows, but they will need to wait a week for livewire forward Josh Rachele (knee).
Beau McCreery has been cleared to play for the Pies after hurting his foot in Round 24, but they are weighing up the idea of replacing Dan McStay (shoulder) with finals specialist Mason Cox.
No Rankine and no Rachele certainly makes things tough for the Crows, but the fact they’ve won nine-straight while the Pies went 2-5 to end the season, we can’t ignore the difference in the form lines.
Where are the Brisbane fans at? $2.20 could be the best price you get for the reigning premiers all finals series.
Despite winning both their matches against Geelong this season (9 and 41 points, respectively), the Lions will enter Friday night’s clash at the MCG as underdogs.
Brisbane will be bolstered by the return of Lachie Neale (quad) and Jarrod Berry (shoulder), with Neale’s inclusion made even more relevant considering his best-on-ground performance in last year’s preliminary final between these two sides.
The Cats were gifted the most comfortable run into finals of any team, with hit-outs against Richmond, Sydney, Essendon, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne.
Combined with the fact they have just one player (Toby Conway) on their injury list, the Cats are perfectly placed to make a run at their first flag since 2022.
This could easily be a grand final preview, but we’re sticking with the Lions as they look to make it six-straight at the ‘G.
The first of two blockbuster Elimination Finals this weekend pits Greater Western Sydney against Hawthorn at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Giants, who are currently $1.77 favourites with Ladbrokes, have never lost to the Hawks at ENGIE, but must overcome the mental demons from their disastrous 2024 finals campaign whereby they gave up leads against both the Swans and Lions.
The Orange Tsunami are waiting on Jesse Hogan (foot), Josh Kelly (calf) and Jake Stringer (hamstring) to make it through Thursday’s main sessions but will welcome back Stephen Coniglio (concussion) and Brent Daniels (abdominal) in this do-or-die clash.
Josh Weddle looks like he’ll complete the dream comeback for Hawks’ supporters after he successfully played the second half of Box Hill’s final against Southport last weekend.
It was the star defender’s first game since suffering a stress fracture in Round 16.
The Hawks were 10 points away from securing a top four berth against the Lions in the last round, and we’re expecting them to bounce back on the big stage this Saturday.
Two sides that have arguably already played their first final in order to even make the top eight, the Dockers will host the Suns under lights at Optus Stadium.
Fremantle will go into the match as clear favourites in the market after they pulled off an incredible 15-point victory over the Western Bulldogs in the final round.
Despite recording -26 disposals and -9 clearances, the Dockers lifted across the board with +19 one percenters and +8 tackles leading them to a famous victory.
Much like this weekend’s opponent, the Gold Coast Suns were forced to win their final match of the home and season to secure the club’s first-ever finals series.
After going down to a Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak-inspired Port Adelaide, the Suns returned serve with a dominant 95-point demolition of Essendon in their rescheduled bout.
With Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller taking on Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young, this game will undoubtedly be decided in the midfield.
With that said, the Purple Haze should progress in this one.
2024
The long wait has finally arrived, as we move our way into September action where the intensity lifts, the stakes get higher, and the football gets better.
The action kicks off with the Power and Cats battling it out in Finals for the third time in five years, followed by the most in-form teams, the Dogs and Hawks, playing off in a win-or-go-home Elimination Final at the MCG.
Saturday’s action sees the fourth edition of the Battle of the Bridge in AFL Finals, and a repeat of the 2023 Preliminary Final between the Lions and Blues, this time an Elimination version.
Ahead of every vital contest, we’ve broken down each clash with all our analysis and tips in our AFL Week 1 Finals Preview.
Both sides were in crisis points during the middle of the season, and to both end up in a Qualifying Final is impressive work.
It’s the third time in five years that these two sides have faced in a Qualifying Final, 2020 and 2021 the previous two, with the Power winning both, but going on to lose both Preliminary Finals.
Port Adelaide went 8-1 after their disastrous loss to the Lions and have found a lot more balance in their contest work, making themselves accountable at both ends of the ground.
The Cats are on paper the least threatening team in the Finals series based on form against current top eight sides, with big losses to the Blues, Dogs, Swans, and closer losses at home to the Power and Giants.
Home advantage will play a big factor and it’s typically the first game of the finals with no pressure that the Power perform better in.
Geelong’s record at Adelaide Oval in the Chris Scott era is 9-9 against both Port and Adelaide, excluding Gather Round neutral games, so he certainly can implement winning strategies on the wider ground.
The biggest difference in this contest is the midfield flexibility. Geelong’s guts are aging, and the ability to put together four quarter efforts isn’t as strong as the Power, who have proven that capability in recent weeks.
The outside game is where the Power are most vulnerable in this contest and are often punished in transition through wide bursts of ball movement by foot.
Whether Mark Blicavs and Oli Dempsey can impose themselves in that area is not so certain as the Cats are reliant on all guns blazing through the corridor off turnover.
Up forward for the Power, the Cats need to contend with an inform Mitch Georgiades, whilst also restricting tall target Charlie Dixon.
Port Adelaide’s midfielders win this game for the Power based on their scoreboard impact, which was present last week when they flicked Jason Horne-Francis up forward.
If Jeremy Cameron doesn’t get firing for the Cats they stand no chance, but they have found moments of spark from the likes of Oli Henry and Tyson Stengle.
The Cats halfback line is pure speed, which presents challenges for the Power in transition, but if restricted, you’ve solved half your issues.
The combination of contested and uncontested styles that the Power have should get them over the line, and in front of a full home crowd, they’d need to have a full Preliminary Final like concentration lapse to lose the game in a matter of minutes.
Both sides have a golden ticket given where they sit among the rest of the eight, but the Power have been proving they can beat the teams around them for longer.
Tip: Power to win by 1-39 and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2+ goals @ $3.03
It almost seems unfair that both these sides will face off in an Elimination Final, given how in-form each side is.
In the last 10 years, only two times the top four all make it through to the Preliminary Final, which suggests that one side outside the top four at the very least makes it into a Preliminary Final, which places a greater weight on the emphasis of winning this game.
It’s all-out attack against midfield masters, and there is no real telling which way the game will be played.
Finals footy brings out a scrappier contested fight in most games, which suits the Bulldogs, but the Hawks always find a way to impose their system against the odds.
It’s Hawthorn’s first AFL Finals series since 2018, where they were knocked out in straight sets, marking the end of the Premiership era.
The Doggies have featured in the AFL Finals in four of the past five years but have failed to win a final since the Preliminary Final in 2021, with an Elimination Final exit to Fremantle their last final in 2022.
The ground advantage is in favour of the Hawks, which won’t please the Dogs fans who would take Marvel as their home ground any day of the week.
Liam Jones avoiding a suspension for his tackle against the Giants is brightening news for the Dogs, who will need every key defender in the side to combat the fast-scoring Hawks.
The biggest question in this game is how will the Hawks handle Finals pressure? They’re certainly capable of winning by no means, but finals are typically low scoring, full of contested possession, and won on moments rather than momentum.
If we dial it down statistically, the Dogs are leaders in the competition for inside 50s, so they are the masters of stoppage craft, which presents as the main challenge for the Hawks.
Earlier this season the Hawks beat the Dogs by seven points, clinical inside 50 with their efficiency whilst getting smashed in stoppages and clearances.
The Dogs turned it over quite a lot and if Hawthorn’s pressure matches, all of a sudden, things sway in their direction irrelevant of stoppage dominance.
Both forward lines are the topic of discussion, with the Dogs posing the tall timber in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton, and Tim English, while the Hawks are small and speedy, capitalsiing through the likes of Nick Watson, Dylan Moore, and Connor Macdonald, and Jack Ginnivan.
The wingman battles will be fascinating, especially on the wider MCG ground, you’d lean towards Massimo D’Ambrossio and Karl Amon given their experience on the ground compared to Ed Richards and Bailey Williams who are suited to a narrower Marvel Stadium.
Adam Treloar was reported to be in doubt early in pre-finals week, so if he is out there, he’ll be a bit injured at the least, so a lot of the load will be on Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore to force the offensive pressure.
A Hawthorn midfield of Jai Newcombe, Finn Maginness, and potentially Will Day is offensively loaded, but the inexperience in Finals is something the Hawks will have to contend with.
Given the rawness of the opportunity for Hawthorn, their biggest challenge may be absorbing the pressure early, but they’re often fast starters, and if they’re able to continue that trend, it could be over quite quickly.
Both sides are in ripping form, but sadly one has to go, and at the MCG where the Dogs have limited experience at this year, and a crowd that will likely favour the Hawks, stopping them has become a task not just physically demanding, but mentally.
Tip: Hawthorn to win by 1-24, Marcus Bontempellii to have 25+ disposals @ $5.20
It feels like most years we’re seeing these two sides battle it out in the Finals Series and just our luck we’ve got it again.
History plays a unique tipping point in this game, as the Giants are 3-0 in Finals against the Swans, with wins in 2016, 2018, and 2021.
However, the Swans beat the Giants on both occasions this season, with a win at the SCG by 29 points, and a win at ENGIE Stadium by 27 points, so the Giants haven’t gotten close.
Sydney’s form has slightly improved heading into Finals, but there is still a shadow of doubt given they had a light draw to finish this year, with their last game against a top eight side coming against the Power, which was a 112-point loss.
GWS themselves have been performing at a lower standard than usual, but efficiency has got the job done for them with big wins against the Lions, Dockers, and Hawks.
The Giants inside 50 efficiency has been no higher than 43% in both meetings this season against the Swans, and on both occasions, they lost the stoppage battle.
Sydney’s biggest threat in the finals but also to the Giants on this occasion is their capacity to score through their midfielders, which troubled the Giants in both meetings this season.
Errol Gulden led the way with disposals in both games and it was the Swans imposing ability in transition that overwhelmed the Giants defensively.
Where the Giants have the upper hand is their ability to space the forward line open and create marking opportunities, where they sit third in the competition for average marks inside 50 per game.
Having a Coleman Medallist on the team helps your case significantly, although Jesse Hogan hasn’t kicked more than two goals in either meeting, two and one.
The Swans will be hoping for a return of Tom Papley who will add some extra goal flare the Swans have lacked in the past few weeks and just a natural tone setter at that.
Likewise, the Giants will be hoping for the return of Jake Riccardi, who adds an extra athletic element inside 50.
Pound for pound it’s an extremely even contest, but the Giants have been relying too much on capitalising inside 50 and simply don’t dominate games for long enough.
While their finals record against the Swans is impressive, they will need to come out a lot more aggressive to come home with the win.
Sydney’s offensive flare at the SCG is hard to stop, and if they get off to a fast start, they could put their foot down quite quickly, but all hope is for a tight encounter!
Tip: Swans to win by 1-24 and Will Hayward to kick 2+ goals @ $6.24
Right back in Opening Round, these sides played out one of the most enthralling openers, as the Blues fought back from a 46-point deficit to win by a point at the Gabba.
Five months later, the Preliminary Final rematch takes place yet again at the Gabba, where the Lions will be looking to get revenge and kickstart the journey into September from outside the top four.
Form certainly isn’t on the Blues side, with wins against the bottom three sides after their big win against Geelong in June, although their injury toll hasn’t been in their favour.
Brisbane may have been overcast as the most in-form team in the competition until it all came crashing down against the Giants and Pies, losing opportunities to host a Qualifying Final.
The Blues could see the return of Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Zac Williams, Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Jordan Boyd, and stunningly, Sam Docherty.
It’s a massive list turnaround, but all these players are out-of-form so to speak given a lack of recent game time, although should be fresh.
On the contrary, the Lions are coming in quite full strength taking out those with season-ending injuries, and are simply trusting on efficiency to finally pull them through convincingly.
Goalkicking has become a genuine concern for the Lions, who sit fourth last in the competition for shot at goal accuracy and have kicked themselves out of games as recent as GWS and Collingwood, and luckily not the Essendon one.
That trend feels like Carlton’s ticket to victory if they were to pull through, and back in Opening Round, they capitalised to work themselves back into it.
Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay combined for seven goals that night, with no other Blue hitting the scoreboard more than once, which does depend on heavy reliance on those two to get firing.
Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood only managed one goal each in Opening Round, and it has been a common trend in previous meetings where Brisbane’s small forwards and rolling midfielders punish the Blues the most in quick transition.
Typically, the Blues lack speed at the Gabba, but the smaller ground suits them and doesn’t rely on pace so much, however, the Lions have been extremely sound defensively at home recently, not conceding over 100 points since their win over St Kilda.
The return of Will Ashcroft to the Lions midfield has added extra poise alongside Hugh McLuggage, Josh Dunkley, and Lachie Neale, which will likely run riot in offensive transition.
A lot of weight is yet again on the shoulders of Patrick Cripps to lead the way with his bullish nature, and with George Hewett and Sam Walsh the only real constants in the team the past month, it’s hard to see continuity being a factor that will help them get the midfield edge.
Despite two previous gutsy efforts from the Blues, defending fast-paced transition hasn’t been their forte, as proven against the Hawks, and although Opening Round looked pretty, they were smashed from the outset, and simply can’t afford for that to happen again.
Brisbane’s home form still stacks up, but if they waste opportunities, there is no doubt the Blues will punish with the talent they have on the park, and with the large travelling supporter base that will follow.
Tip: Brisbane to win by 1-39 and Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ goals @ $3.65
2023
It’s been one of the most tightly contested seasons in recent memory, and we are set for a thrilling Week 1 of the AFL 2023 finals with four huge games scheduled.
The Pies have been the hot favourites for most of the year, but a few key injuries have put a dent in Craig McRae’s plans heading into a massive Qualifying Final on Thursday night against the Dees.
Carlton returns to the finals stage on Friday to face a dangerous-looking Swans outfit in the first Elimination Final, while the Saints and Giants square off on Saturday in the second ‘win or go home’ game.
The Lions and Power take centre stage at the Gabba not long after in the second Qualifier, a huge rematch from their first encounter way back in Round 1.
All four games could swing either way, and we’ve analysed everything you need to know in our Week 1 Finals Preview!
With a spot in the Qualifying Final up for grabs, a fitting matchup between the Pies and the Dees awaits in front of a packed house at the ‘G.
Firmly favoured to win the Premiership for the majority of the season, the Pies find themselves with a few chinks in the armour following a rollercoaster final month of footy.
Key injuries to Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, and Jamie Elliot has really put some pressure on Collingwood’s depth, but that didn’t stop the Pies running out comfortable 70-point winners over Essendon in Round 24.
The Dees have also faced some tribulations throughout the season, namely injuries to Max Gawn, the absence of Clayton Oliver, and more recently, a season-ending injury to Jake Melksham.
Simon Goodwin’s side has come good winning five of its last six games down the stretch, but after struggling to find points for most of the year, there are some queries on Melbourne heading into the pointy end of the year.
As the market suggests, this could be a close game between two sides that have become well-acquainted – the last two meetings being decided by no more than seven points.
In comparison, there isn’t much separating both sides on the stat sheet, either.
The Dees and Pies are both averaging around 24 scoring shots and 13 goals a game, but where Collingwood might hold the advantage is in the turnover department.
Melbourne currently leads the league in turnovers, a huge problem against Collingwood’s fierce midfield and the full voice of the Magpie army.
It is worth nothing though that the Dees have been the best fourth-quarter team in the competition, setting up an interesting challenge for a Collingwood side that tends to roar home late in the final term.
Overall, the Pies should win this game, but not by much.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.35
SGM: Collingwood to Win, Kozzie Pickett 2+ Goals, Over 42.5 Fourth Quarter Total Points @ $8.03
A decade-long drought will come to an end on Friday with the Blues returning to the finals for the first time since 2013.
Following an agonizing end to season 2022, Michael Voss’ squad was seemingly destined for further disappointment, dropping six games in a row before a sudden post-bye turnaround.
Whatever went on behind the scenes remains a mystery, but considering where they once were, the fact the Blues are even in this spot to begin with is a massive credit to the entire coaching staff.
Fans of the Baggers have every right to feel nervous though, particularly against a Swans outfit that made it through to the big dance last year.
Sydney’s season has been equally as dramatic for different reasons, John Longmire’s side suffering four straight losses earlier in the year, before bouncing back not long after to defeat Carlton by 26 points at the SCG.
The Swans were considered a potential ‘dark horse’ heading into the finals, but after falling short of a seventh consecutive win against Melbourne in the final round, it’s tough to know if the Bloods have another gear to go after fighting so hard to feature in September.
Likewise, the Blues also came undone against GWS in Round 24, but it’s fair to say that was more a case of the Giants just wanting it more.
On the personnel front, Carlton did suffer a blow with Blake Acres hurting his collarbone last week, while the Swans have some minor concerns themselves around Tom Papley.
In terms of betting, this is another difficult game to try and pick.
Sydney’s biggest strength has been pressure and scoring off turnover, while Carlton’s midfield is finally living up to expectations and delivering the ball into its lethal forward line with poise.
Looking back, there wasn’t much separating these two sides when they met in Round 11. The Swans dominated the centre clearances, but some sloppy errors saw Carlton held goal-less in the final term.
Neither coach will spend too long reflecting on the past, but given the pressure of the moment, and the fact the underdog has covered in each of Sydney’s last eight games at the MCG, this one could turn out tighter than the market suggests.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+13.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: Swans to Cover, Under the Total, Issac Heeney 2+ Goals @ $7.14
A rematch from Round 10 sees the Saints and Giants square off in the second Elimination Final on Sunday.
The Saints are playing September footy for the first time since 2020, and while no one considers them a genuine finals chance, Ross Lyon’s defensive-minded approach could pose a few match up problems for Adam Kinglsey and company.
Held to just one goal in the final term, GWS felt the full pinch losing by 12 points earlier in the year, but there were positives to draw with the Giants winning the clearances and the stoppages by a big margin.
St Kilda is one of only two teams to remain inside the top eight from start to finish, but as we saw in the Round 24 loss to the Lions, their low-scoring, stingy ways don’t exactly spell future flag winner.
Max King and Jack Sinclair have been at the forefront of the club’s success, but this does shape as a fascinating match up against a Giants team that has really found the goals in recent weeks.
GWS has put up 100+ points in back-to-back wins over Essendon and Carlton, Jesse Hogan kicking a bag three weeks ago, and Toby Greene slotting four in the final round.
Not surprisingly, the Giants average nearly three more scoring shots a game compared to St Kilda, which could prove the difference given how lethal they’ve been in front of the sticks.
A final in Melbourne for an inter-state club poses its own set of challenges, but with two wins from their last three road trips, the Giants look great value head-to-head.
Tip: Back the Giants to Win @ $1.85
SGM: Giants to Win, Jack Sinclair 30+ Disposals, Over the Total @ $6.55
A 2nd vs 3rd battle headlines the weekend in what is also the first finals meeting between Brisbane and Port since the 2004 AFL Grand Final.
The Lions have had their fair share of critics throughout the season, but four wins on the trot over Fremantle, Adelaide, Collingwood, and St Kilda has helped steady the ship and silence some of the doubters.
Brisbane’s stunning record at the Gabba is well-documented, but there should be an element of revenge in mind after suffering a 54-point loss at the Adelaide Oval in the first round of the season.
Like every club, the Power have also gone through their share of ups and downs.
Port lost four on the trot heading into August, but they’ve really found a purple patch of late, putting together three solid wins over GWS, Fremantle, and Richmond.
Side by side, it’s fair to say the Lions are the more battle-tested team in terms of recent opponents, but given some of their accuracy problems in front of goal, Brisbane could prove to be its own worst enemy.
Joe Daniher had a shocker in the narrow win over St Kilda a fortnight ago, while Eric Hipwood continues to struggle to take contested marks at opportune times – a problem compounded even further with Jack Gunston on the sideline.
The Power have also had their troubles in front of goal, but that hasn’t stopped them from ranking third in points scored throughout the season.
Aside from stats and trends, what’s at stake can’t be overstated.
The chance to secure home-field advantage moving forward is huge, even more so for the Lions given their awful record at the MCG.
Daniher, Hipwood, and Charlie Cameron hold the keys to Brisbane’s chances, especially with such a strong advantage in front of the faithful at the Gabba.
The Power are more than capable of keeping up on the scoreboard, but even with a couple of cheap wins against struggling clubs to end the year, this feels like Brisbane’s game to lose.
Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.10
SGM: Lions 1-39, Port Adelaide Over 76.5 Total Points, 3rd Quarter 5-6 Goals @ $14.69
2022
Finals fever is in the air with all eight teams now setting their sights on that one special day in September.
Week 1 gets started nice and early on Thursday night with the Lions taking to the Gabba to host the Tigers, followed by a Friday night blockbuster from Melbourne between the Dees and the Swans.
We’re back at the ‘G on Saturday afternoon for a belter between the Cats and the Pies, followed by a trip out west when the Dockers and Dogs square off from Optus.
Who will progress to the Prelim? Who’s going home?
Best bets in our Week 1 Finals Preview, here!
There will be a familiar feeling at the Gabba on Thursday night with the Lions and Tigers once again meeting in September.
Brisbane’s first finals win in over a decade came against Richmond back in 2019, but the Tigers have held the Lions’ number in recent times with victories in each of the last two seasons.
Damien Hardwick’s men prevailed by seven points only six weeks ago at the MCG, a game that saw Tom Lynch and up-and-coming star, Noah Cumberland, combine for a whopping nine goals.
Both clubs have embarked on different paths to the finals, and it’s fair to say Richmond is the team with the more promising form heading into the pointy end of the season.
The Tigers rattled off four straight wins to finish seventh on the ladder, while a blowout loss to the Dees two weeks ago at home put an exclamation point on Brisbane’s free fall from the top four.
Superstar midfielder Dustin Martin is set to make his return to the field following a recent absence, but the inclusion of No. 4 isn’t the only reason the Tigers find themselves as slight favourites in betting.
The legitimacy of Brisbane’s finals credentials has been under fire for the better part of two months, with scoring inefficiency, problems down back, and a complete lack of toughness to blame.
The disappearance of Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron up forward was also at the forefront against Melbourne two weeks ago, not to mention Brisbane’s recent failures in big, high-pressure games of late.
It’s tough to find confidence in the Lions with all those problems in mind, but if there has been one constant during the Chris Fagan era, it’s Brisbane bouncing back.
The Lions haven’t lost back-to-back games in over 12 months, while it’s easy to forget this is the same Richmond side that lost to wooden spooners North Melbourne six weeks ago.
Finding an answer to Tom Lynch has to be at the top of Fagan’s priority list this week, while the Lions can also benefit from playing their brand of footy – rather than playing for free kicks and trying to get under the skin of their opponents like we saw against the Dees.
With the Gabba crowd also a factor, a week off might be just what the Lions needed.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $2.00
The first Qualifying Final promises to be a good one with reigning premier Melbourne taking on Sydney on Friday night.
The Swans will be hoping to make up for lost time after suffering a heartbreaking one-point loss to rivals GWS in last year’s Elimination Final, and they shouldn’t be short on confidence after knocking off the Dees once already this year.
Swans fans can look back fondly on their two-goal win at the ‘G back in Round 12, a game that saw Sydney win the clearances and also apply a tremendous amount of pressure in the second half.
Melbourne bounced back from that three-match losing streak quite well, but outside of last fortnight’s dominant win over the Lions, it’s fair to say the Dees haven’t been quite as ferocious as they were last season.
Low-scoring games and some issues down back have been prevalent throughout various stages of the year, while Simon Goodwin’s men have also shown issues closing out the fourth quarter in games against the Dogs, Collingwood, and Carlton recently.
Those same issues cost Melbourne earlier in the year as Sydney outscored the Dees four goals to one in the final term.
John Longmire’s side did a fantastic job of shutting down Max Gawn in the late stages, while the win was made even more impressive by the fact Buddy Franklin was absent up forward.
The Swans have had their issues playing on the road this year, particularly in Melbourne where they’ve posted a 3-3 mark.
Even so, this team has been somewhat of a dark horse during the second half of the season, and there’s no denying they have the midfield and the forward line to match Melbourne’s.
In terms of pressure, there isn’t a better tackling side playing finals than the Swans, while they’ve also had no problem finding the scoreboard ranking fourth in points-per-game.
Backing them outright is tough, but given the underdog has covered in each of Sydney’s last 11 matches at the MCG, the Swans at the line looks a very good bet.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+12.5 Points) @ $2.00
They’ve been the standout team from start to finish, but can the Cats finally clear their finals hurdle?
Chris Scott prepares for his 11th finals campaign on Saturday against a team Geelong has had no problem beating in recent years.
The Cats strolled to a comfortable Semi-Final win over Collingwood during the shortened 2020 season, although their last two encounters have been decided by no more than a pair of goals.
Geelong’s form speaks for itself. It’s incredibly difficult to win 13 games in a row, but nobody knows better than Cats fans that regular season form counts for nought come finals time.
Given their season and the quality of talent on paper, the Cats are the rightful favourite in the market, but there’s nothing more dangerous than a team that has relished the role of underdog throughout most of the season.
Playing with a chip on their shoulder, the Pies are red-hot heading into September following a rousing, come-from-behind, one-point win over Carlton two weeks ago.
Collingwood has made a habit of winning most of its games by single figures – nine to be exact – and there really isn’t a more exciting fourth-quarter team in the competition right now.
Looking back, the Cats were able to pick up a win over the Pies in Round 3 by making the most of their inside 50 entries.
Collingwood actually dominated in this area, but Geelong turned the tables by taking 20 marks inside 50 to the Pies’ 7.
Rebounding the ball from their back half has become a staple of Collingwood’s success this year, but they’re about to meet their match against a Geelong side that has made it almost impossible for opposing teams to go the length of the ground.
Collingwood deserves enormous respect for their fourth quarter resolves this year, and even though the Cats have become somewhat of a meme following a bye week, Geelong’s class and finals experience should see them through to another Prelim.
Tip: Back the Cats 1-39 @ $2.02
You don’t have to go back far to find the last meeting between the Dockers and the Dogs.
Fremantle ran out 17-point winners at Marvel back in Round 21 thanks to a four-goal haul from Rory Lobb and some strong defensive efforts that saw the Dogs kick just two goals in the final term.
Luke Beveridge’s men have had to scrap and claw their way to a finals berth, beating Hawthorn in Launceston two weeks ago before finally earning a spot thanks to Carlton’s last-minute loss.
It’s largely been a disappointing season for last year’s Grand Final runner-ups, but nobody knows better than Bulldog fans that you just need to be in it to win it.
Freo, on the other hand, returns to finals for the first time since 2015 thanks in large part to third-year coach, Justin Longmuir.
Injuries and some inter-state troubles saw the Dockers fall just short of a top-four spot, but they’ve well and truly exceeded expectations after spending most of the year without dual Brownlow Medalist, Nat Fyfe.
The injured skipper looks a chance at returning this week from a hamstring issue, while there are also plenty of positives surrounding the status of Lobb and Matthew Taberner.
Of the four games, this one might be the toughest to get a read on.
The Dockers have played to an 8-4 record at Optus Stadium this year, but the Dogs have still been a dangerous side to try and defend ranking fifth in average goals.
Low-scoring games have become commonplace for Fremantle this year, largely due to the defensive structure Longmuir has implemented.
That said, these two sides combined for 172 points when they met last month, and it probably would have been more if both had kicked straight.
The Dogs have had their problems finding points recently, but a week off may have done them a world of good.
With both teams prone to a bad day here and there, the Over looks the best play.
Tip: Over 160.5 Total Points @ $1.88
2021
With the top eight now decided, we officially set our sights on September for the first weekend of finals footy.
Port has the added advantage of home-field advantage on Friday night when they take on Geelong in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final, followed by another edition of the Sydney Derby between Sydney and GWS on Saturday from Tassie.
The Dees and the Lions have been regarded as two of the top teams to beat this year, setting up a mouth-watering blockbuster on Saturday night from the Adelaide Oval.
Last but not least, the Bombers are looking to snap a 17-year hoodoo when they take on the battling Bulldogs on Sunday in Launceston in the second Elimination Final.
Nothing tops the magic of finals footy, and we’ve got you covered ahead of all four games in our 2021 AFL Finals Week 1 Preview here!
It will be Groundhog Day for the Power and Cats on Thursday night as they meet in the Qualifying Final for the second year in a row.
Port overcame Geelong by 16 points when they met at the Adelaide Oval last year and they will again go into Week 1 of the finals as favourites against the out of sorts Cats.
The Power momentarily sat atop the ladder last week following their nail-biting two-point win over the Dogs but eventually had to settle for second following Melbourne’s victory over Geelong.
Chris Scott’s side managed to blow a seven-goal half-time lead before losing on the siren to Max Gawn, a performance that has cast plenty of doubt over the Cats’ chances of returning to the Grand Final.
Geelong did get some revenge on Port with a 21-point victory back in Round 13, but it’s fair to say a lot has changed since then.
Having held their last three opponents to under 70 points, the Power have been very tough to score against in recent weeks, while the Cats have shown a tendency to switch off during various stages of the game.
Putting all that aside for moment, this does look to be a potential trap game for punters.
The Cats have won seven of their last eight off the back of a loss, while it’s hard to forget Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan combining for 12 goals against the Power back in June.
The scary part for Port fans is the fact Geelong kicked 10 behinds that night, so if the Cats can manage to string together four quarters again, this could turn into a long night for the Power back line.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
A trip to the Semi’s and a whole heap of bragging rights are on the line this Saturday in the rubber match between the Swans and the Giants.
This season’s ‘Battle of the Bridge’ score is all even at one win apiece, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from favouring the Swans by just over a goal in line betting.
Sydney comes into this game riding a two-game winning streak following a couple of comfortable victories over the Swans and North Melbourne, and they’ll certainly fancy themselves a chance at making it a third after beating their rivals by 26 points last month.
The Swans have looked a genuine finals contender ever since they knocked off the Lions and Richmond in the first three weeks of the season, but it’s fair to say GWS’ recent form reads even better with three consecutive wins over Geelong, Richmond and Carlton.
As far as ‘dark horses’ go, the Giants are arguably the most dangerous team heading into the finals, largely due to their defensive efforts in recent weeks.
Leon Cameron’s side held both the Cats and the Tigers to under 70 points to start the month, while there was a lot to like about GWS’ response to a gallant Blues outfit last week.
The Giants found themselves trailing at half-time before dialing up some pressure and winning the clearances, two areas that will go a long way towards determining the outcome of Saturday’s game.
In terms of experience, the Giants also have the upper hand in this matchup after playing finals in each of the last four years, which should help them enormously with the rest of the finals to be played on neutral turf.
While the Swans have a number of experienced names, it’s worth noting the Giants have covered the line in six of their last nine games as the away underdog.
This game will largely boil down to which forward line can be the most efficient, and after managing 29 shots on goal last week, the Giants look a bet to win that battle.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Lions will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s Qualifying Final on Saturday night when they take on minor premiers Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval.
Brisbane famously defeated Richmond in last year’s Qualifier before suffering a disappointing loss to Geelong in the Prelim, a result that has largely inspired Chris Fagan’s side for the entirety of the season.
The Dees, on the other hand, have Grand Final aspirations of their own after finishing the home and away season on top of the ladder last week with a mesmerizing win over Geelong.
Melbourne fans had to be sick to their stomach with their side trailing by seven goals at half-time, but like we’ve seen all season, the Dees showed the resiliency of a true flag contender by erasing the deficit to win on the siren.
Not to be outdone, the Lions also came up clutch with a 38-point win over West Coast to cement a top-four finish, which similar to last year, has left the Lions as one of the most in-form sides heading into the finals.
In terms of recent history, the Lions will be out to atone for their 22-point loss to the Dees back in Round 12 that saw them blow a healthy lead.
Brisbane led by four goals at half-time, but like we saw last week against Geelong, Melbourne proved too strong in the second half thanks to a big performance from Christian Petracca.
The Lions don’t need it, but you can bet Chris Fagan will use that loss as added motivation during the week – much like he did last year when the Lions got their revenge on Richmond.
Considering Brisbane has gone 4-1 as the away underdog over the last 12 months, there’s a bit to like about the Lions with a little insurance on offer.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.90
Every game can lay claim for “most exciting” this weekend, but it’s always a little more special whenever the Bombers are involved.
Having not won a final since 2004, the Bombers are on course to erase a decade-plus of misery against the out-of-form Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon in Tassie.
After results went their way, the Bombers booked their finals spot with a convincing 38-point win over Collingwood, but they’ll need a repeat performance if they wish to knock off a Dogs team that was a very recent flag favourite.
Luke Beveridge’s side has been on a downward spiral since Josh Bruce’s season was brought to an abrupt end a few weeks ago – a loss that has not surprisingly made goals hard to come by.
To make matters worse, the Dogs squandered a top-four finish last week after Bailey Smith’s last-second kick from outside 50 was rushed through for a behind, sinking them to their third straight loss.
Now, the Dogs gear up for a rejuvenated and boastful Bombers outfit that proved too much for the Bulldogs only three weeks ago at Marvel.
Peter Wright proved the difference with a huge seven-goal bag, while the writing was on the wall for the Dogs as they faded in the second half.
With all that in mind, this is still the toughest game of the weekend to try and pick.
Barring the last month, the Dogs have looked untouchable at times on attack, while the Bombers’ track record in finals speaks for itself.
That was then and this is now though, and there really is no denying how fiery the Dons have looked in recent weeks.
Unlike in years past, this is a club that clearly wants to play for Ben Rutten, and after downing Hawthorn in Tassie only two months ago, the Bombers look a very nice bet to cap off what might be a big weekend for the underdogs.
Tip: Back Essendon to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90
2020
Four scintillating finals games await this weekend as the AFL moves one step closer to crowning a new premier.
Port Adelaide and Geelong get things started on Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval, followed by a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final between the Lions and Richmond from the Gabba.
Saturday’s Elimination Final between the Saints and the Dogs could turn out to be one of the games of the year, while there certainly won’t be any love lost when the Pies travel to Perth to face the Eagles.
After a week off to regroup and collect our thoughts, we’ve analysed each and every matchup in our 2020 AFL Week 1 Finals Preview below!
Port Adelaide finished the home-and-away season the way they started: on top of the ladder.
After securing the minor premiership with a convincing win over Collingwood a fortnight ago, the Power now turns their attention to another powerhouse as they prepare to host the Cats on Thursday night.
Home field advantage and recent form has seen Port open as the favourites, but they won’t hold particularly fond memories of Geelong after losing by 60-points to the Cats back in Round 13.
Geelong, on the other hand, have spent most of their week off reflecting on what was a less-than convincing end to the regular season.
The Cats won by only six points against the Swans, a performance Chris Scott will be hoping his side can forget when they meet one of the best defensive sides in the competition this week.
Scott will also be sweating on the health of key ruckman Rhys Stanley, who remains questionable with a groin injury.
Ken Hinkley, meanwhile, has plenty of options at his disposal with a completely healthy list to choose from.
The Cats led the competition in goals scored during the home-and-away season, while the Power allowed the second-fewest goals to opponents.
The last eight games between Geelong and Port have also gone Under the Total, so the likelihood of a low-scoring game on Thursday night seems relatively high.
Tip: Under 115.5 Total Points @ $1.87
The Tigers will be hoping to pick up where they left off in last year’s Qualifying Final when they meet the Lions for the second year in a row.
Richmond famously won by over 40 points against Brisbane last year on their way to a flag, while the Lions bounced out of the finals a week later in disappointing straight sets.
Obviously, a lot has changed in the last 12 months, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from installing Richmond as the short-priced favourites heading into Friday’s game.
The Tigers have won six straight heading into the finals after mauling the Crows a fortnight ago, while their 15-game winning streak over Brisbane dating back to 2009 has haunted head coach Chris Fagan since he arrived at the club.
The Lions failed to get the monkey off their back in Round 10 with another 40-point loss to the Tigers at Metricon, which has left plenty of people in Brisbane feeling anxious heading into the first round of the finals.
From an injury perspective, it appears neither side will have any excuses this week.
The Tigers are expected to welcome Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia back into the side, although Josh Caddy remains doubtful with a knee injury.
Brisbane, on the other hand, are set to receive a huge boost with star defender Harris Andrews fit to play, while superstar midfielder Jarrod Berry could also be a late inclusion.
With the Lions maturing year on year, this game should be much closer than it was last year, but it’s still difficult to back the Lions with any confidence based on their track record against Richmond.
The Tigers seemingly have another gear to go to, while they’ve also been very tough to score against this year, allowing the fewest goals to opponents despite playing all over the country.
Andrews and the Brisbane backline had no answers to Tom Lynch and company when they met earlier in the year, so there’s a good chance we see the Tigers put up a big total (and a win) on their march to the Grand Final.
Tip: Back Richmond to Win & Richmond Over 61.5 Total Points @ $2.15
Bulldogs head coach Luke Beveridge will be out for revenge on Saturday after his side lost by 39 points to the Saints back in Round 2.
The Dogs managed to sneak a spot inside the eight with a convincing win over Fremantle in the final game of the season, a performance the Dogs will need to replicate against a much-improved Saints side making their first finals appearance since 2011.
St Kilda also survived a late season scare to snag the sixth seed with a big win over the Giants.
On their day, the Saints are one of the most lethal goal-kicking sides in the competition, but how they handle the big stage against an experienced postseason contender remains to be seen.
The Dogs have now played finals in three of their last five seasons, an advantage the bookies are clearly factoring in with the line favouring the Bulldogs by -3.5.
That said, it’s worth noting the Dogs have beaten only one top eight side all year to go along with a 2-3 record in their last five games against the Saints.
This game should come right down to the wire, but the trends dp suggest St Kilda are the side to bet on.
The underdog has won each of the last three games between the Saints and Dogs, while St Kilda also hold a distinct advantage having played six games at the Gabba to the Bulldogs’ one.
Tip: Back St Kilda to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday will mark the ninth time West Coast and Collingwood have met in the finals as both sides hope to extend their season.
The Eagles famously won the 2018 Grand Final over the Magpies to go along with a massive 61-point win over Collingwood back in Round 9 at Optus Stadium.
As a result, the bookies are firmly in favour of West Coast as they return home to Western Australia for the first time since August.
The Eagles hold a perfect 7-0 record at Optus Stadium this year and are also set to receive an added boost with Jeremy McGovern, Jack Redden and Luke Shuey set to return from injury.
Collingwood will hold fond memories of this ground after beating the Eagles by a single point last year.
Unfortunately for the Magpies, however, this shapes up as a much tougher task with Jeremy Howe officially ruled out for the season.
The Pies have shown plenty of fight to play though injuries all year, but it’s tough to have them in this spot after struggling so much for points against Port Adelaide to close out the season.
When you also factor in the West Coast bias crowd, this could turn out to be one of the less surprising results of the weekend.
Tip: Back West Coast to Win & Over 111.5 Total Points @ $2.89
2019
The 2019 AFL Finals are here and we are set for four fascinating games of football in the opening week.
The West Coast Eagles are dominant favourites to beat Essendon, but the three other games are all set to be competitive affairs and there is very little between them in betting.
We have analysed all four games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 AFL Finals Week 1 tips can be found below.
For the Bombers, the bye week presents an opportunity to rest up ahead of their first finals appearance since 2017.
For West Coast, the bye week presents a chance to regroup following last week’s horror performance against Hawthorn.
Adam Simpson’s side lost by 38-points to the Hawks in what was West Coast’s most concerning performance of the season. The Eagles, a team with two of the AFL’s Top 10 leading goal scorers, struggled to move the ball forward as Hawthorn’s defensive zones caused chaos.
The Bombers have a lot less to worry about on the ground despite losing by 11-points to Collingwood last week. Instead, Essendon’s biggest concerns come in the form of injury, as the Dons will be hoping Dyson Heppell, Jake Stringer, Cale Hooker, and the recently injured Michael Hurley are all good to go on Thursday night.
With the casualty ward growing, it’s no surprise to find the Bombers listed at a wide price on the road. The Bombers lost by 35-points to the Eagles in Perth back in Round 14, adding to their ho-hum 3-3 interstate record this season.
For the Eagles, the return of Nic Naitanui is still unclear, but even without their star ruckmen, West Coast should prove too strong for an out of form Bombers side.
Say what you will about the Eagles’ loss to the Hawks, but the week off might be just what West Coast needs. For all their troubles getting the ball inside 50 last week, the Eagles should find opportunities easy to come by against a Bombers side allowing the fourth-most inside 50 entries this season.
Tip: Back West Coast 40+ @ $2.40
A big crowd will be on hand to witness this rematch of Round 1’s epic heavyweight clash.
Geelong got the better of Collingwood that day winning by seven points, but as the odds suggest, the bookmakers are having a difficult time separating the two based on recent form.
Collingwood posed a few questions towards the business end of the season but have since responded by winning four of their last five games. To be fair, those wins have come over the Suns, Demons, Crows and Bombers, but with health somewhat on their side now, the Pies are poised for a deep finals run.
Geelong, on the other hand, bounced back from a one-point loss to the Lions a fortnight ago to thump Carlton by 68-points. The minor premiers would like this final to be played at GMHBA Stadium, but the Cats should feel confident in the fact they are 4-1 at the MCG this season.
Much of this game will boil down to the midfield battle, as both sides possess their own unique strengths.
Collingwood finished the home/away season ranked first in disposals, while the Cats ranked on top in tackles.
Chris Scott’s side has won three straight over the Pies dating back to 2017, although it’s worth noting Collingwood own a handy 3-1 record as the “away” underdog against Geelong.
The last five games between these two sides have been decided by 1-39 points, and with two potent forward lines, it’s safe to expect the same on Friday night.
With that in mind, goals have typically come at a premium between these two in recent memory. That should play into Geelong’s hands, but only if Tom Hawkins turns up for the contest.
Against top four sides this year, Hawkins has combined for only eight goals. It’s been a down season by his usual standards, and if the Pies can isolate him early, Collingwood should be well on their way to a spot in the Semi-Finals.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.55
Big time Victorian clashes are all the rage come finals, but this is by far one of the most intriguing matchups of the qualifying round.
“Dangerous” and “scary” are the words best used to describe the Bulldogs, as they have combined for an average score of 128-points across their last three games.
There are shades of 2016 about this current Bulldogs squad, and after belting GWS by 61-points only a fortnight ago, it’s not surprising to find Luke Beveridge’s side as the favourite on the road.
GWS own wins over Richmond and Collingwood this season, but it’s largely been another disappointing year for the Giants.
Last week’s victory over the Suns at Metricon was a welcome change to what has otherwise been a concerning month ahead of footy. And although the Giants hold home-field advantage, that still won’t be enough against a Bulldogs side that ranks top five in goals and inside ‘50s.
To their credit, GWS has been a tough opponent in the first half this season. The Giants rank fifth in first halves won, but again, the Dogs rank sixth in second halves won.
Stats aside, this should be a close game at half time with the hosts on top, followed by a Beveridge pep talk and a Doggies win.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: GWS/Dogs @ $6.75
A week after a thrilling Sunday afternoon encounter at the ‘G, the Lions and the Tigers prepare for a fascinating rematch, only this time, it’s at the Gabba.
There should be no shortage of motivation for Brisbane on Saturday as the Lions missed out narrowly on the minor premiership. At the same time, Chris Fagan’s side has to feel proud of their effort against the Tigers, especially after fighting back from a 30+ point deficit in the third quarter.
Richmond are the current premiership favourites, and rightfully so. The Tigers hit full stride with a big win over Collingwood last month, adding to their impressive nine-game winning streak.
Sunday’s market is also in favour of the Tigers, but the yellow and black do look a little under the odds at their current price.
Richmond’s 3-2 interstate record casts some doubt on their road form, especially after playing their last seven games in Melbourne.
For the Tigers to win, they simply need to accomplish the same thing twice, and that’s shutting down Charlie Cameron. Damien Hardwick successfully contained Brisbane’s problematic star forward last week, holding him to a pair of goals and only two tackles.
Of course, that’s easier said than done, especially on a smaller ground like the Gabba. Lions fans have made their home ground a fortress this year, which will play a huge part in Brisbane’s winning chances.
If the Lions are to pull off the upset, they’ll need to find some clean looks at goal. Tricky shots from the boundary and long bombs inside 50 didn’t cut it a fortnight ago, and the same goes on Sunday.
Brisbane can win this game though if they match Richmond’s pressure, which they did at various stages in Round 23. The Lions’ 13-game losing streak to Richmond is well documented, but if Brisbane’s tackling results in turnovers and clean entries going forward, they can easily win this game.
Tip: Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $2.65
2018
The 2018 AFL Finals are here and, after a fascinating regular season, we couldn’t be more excited.
Richmond have been the dominant side in the competition all season long and they are clear favourites to claim back-to-back flags, but they face a tough qualifying final challenge against a firing Hawthorn outfit.
Melbourne have the chance to win their first final since 2002 when they take on Geelong, while there will be only one Sydney-based side left in the competition at the conclusion of the weekend.
We have analysed all four games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 AFL Finals Week 1 tips can be found below!
Would it be wrong to say this game could turn out bigger than the Grand Final?
For Hawthorn, it’s a free crack at the reigning premiers, while for Richmond, it’s a tune-up at home against the most experienced premiership side in the competition.
It goes without saying the Tigers are the favourites in this one, but what would it take for the Hawks to upset the yellow and black at the G’?
It’s hard to believe this is the first finals meeting between the two clubs, but Hawthorn will find confidence in knowing star defender James Sicily is set to return.
You can’t read too much into Round 3’s meeting, but Jack Riewoldt did manage to boot a four-goal bag on the Hawks, so Sicily’s inclusion is huge for what has been an unpredictable Hawthorn back-line all season long.
The last time the Hawks took care of the Tigers was back in 2016, but this is perhaps Hawthorn’s best chance at winning one over Damien Hardwick’s side. The Hawks have been firing on all cylinders offensively, and if Luke Breust and Jaeger O’Meara are on, they should keep this one close.
There’s plenty of personnel decisions to be made though, and the focus is of course on Dustin Martin. Do the Tigers play him forward? And what do the Hawks do in the ruck?
For punters, perhaps the only thing that matters is the fact this game is at the MCG. Richmond’s consecutive wins record at the ground is well documented, but as we saw in the preliminary final against Geelong a season ago, the crowd plays a huge factor in September.
The Hawks have every reason to believe they can win this. Alastair Clarkson showed just how clever he was two week’s ago against the Swans, and his record in September is unmatched.
Still, the Hawks have had their hairy moments this season, many of which have come against lesser clubs.
Richmond don’t fall into that category, but if the Hawks fail to win the clearances and tag Martin appropriately, this looks somewhere in the ballpark of a 15-point game.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.02
Same Game Multi: Richmond 1-39, Under 157.5 Points, Jack Gunston 3+ Goals
For the second night in a row the MCG will be alight as the Demons play their first final in over a decade.
It’s a big game for both clubs on the heels of an up and down home/away season, but after a week off, it’s anyone’s guess how both teams show up on Friday night.
For Melbourne, their bread and butter all season has been pressure inside their own fifty, which in turn has resulted in plenty of points on the scoreboard.
The Demons would like to have star forward Jesse Hogan out on the pitch, but with the 23-year old ruled out for the rest of the season, scoring responsibilities now fall in Christian Petracca’s lap.
For Geelong, the cruisy run toward September was nice in terms of health and fitness, but is there any chance it’s made the Cats soft?
Geelong haven’t faced a quality club like Melbourne in over three weeks, and if they show up lacking confidence like they did against Hawthorn earlier in August, the Demons will make short work of Chris Scott’s side.
Head-to-head, the Cats have won four straight over the Demons, with Melbourne’s last victory over Geelong coming way back in 2015.
Betting wise, the Cats enter as the underdog, and if you’re a punter, buyer beware – Geelong are a so-so 3-3 as the away underdog this season.
With expectations high and the emotions of a tortured fanbase behind them, this shapes up as a memorable day in Demons history. All they need to do is focus on what works: win the footy, rack up disposals like they have done all season, and feed the ball forward.
Easier said than done, especially against midfielders like Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, but with a week off to concentrate, take Melbourne in a close one.
Tip: Pick Your Own Line – Melbourne (-9.5 Points) @ $2.14
Same Game Multi: Melbourne 1-39, Over 174.5 Total Points
The Battle of the Bridge was intense three weeks ago at Spotless, but with the SCG playing host, this could easily be the game of the round.
Sydney are expected to feature the likes of Buddy Franklin on Saturday, while GWS should see Toby Greene return.
Both inclusions are huge for either side, but who actually wins this epic rivalry?
The Swans hold the home crowd advantage, but as we saw a fortnight ago against Hawthorn, that’s meaningless if your team can’t defend.
Sydney struggled to contain Hawthorn’s speedy playmakers, in particular Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jarman Impey, and if Aliir Aliir has another awful night down back, the Giants are every chance to win this.
Perhaps nobody is taking GWS seriously as a legitimate flag contender, but Leon Cameron’s side thrive on that kind of underestimation.
The Giants game plan this weekend will be simple: blaze the Swans through the midfield, and find Greene in one-on-one situations inside the fifty.
Despite their dominance in recent memory, the Giants manhandled the Swans last season, piling on 38-points in a big win at the SCG.
The Hawks didn’t have to face Franklin in Round 23, but it’s safe to say, if you can keep Buddy quiet, the Swans aren’t quite the same team.
GWS have surprised all season long, and with such high preseason expectations, this is the kind of game the Giants can build on.
With a 3-3 record as the away underdog against the Swans, this is an upset bet worth taking.
Tip: Back the Giants To Win @ $2.15
Same Game Multi: Giants To Win, Buddy Franklin to Score 2+ Goals, Under 156.5 Total Points
The Eagles ensured a home-final berth in the final round of the season, pummeling the Brisbane Lions to give themselves a legitimate chance at hosting a preliminary final in two weeks time.
West Coast’s good news didn’t stop there – star forward Josh Kennedy looks set to return this week, gifting the Eagles their most prolific target down forward against an under-strength Collingwood back-line.
Speaking of the Pies’ defence, it’s a big week for Jeremy Howe. He’s likely manned with the tough task of not only shutting down Kennedy, but also the ever-dangerous Jack Darling – two players that combined for six goals when these two teams met back in Round 17.
A lot has changed since then, but both coaches have likely reviewed the film from the Eagles 35-point win. The Pies hardly looked up to the test back then, and that game was at the MCG, so the question now becomes, what should we expect as Nathan Buckley’s side travels to Perth?
If one thing is for sure, the Pies have plenty to worry about. Collingwood’s goal-scoring problems don’t stop at just Kennedy and Darling, there’s also Willie Rioli and Mark LeCras to worry about, while Luke Shuey commands a heavy tag in the midfield.
So can Collingwood win?
Jordan de Goey gives the Pies a chance, but it’s hard to see them having the man-power to address the Eagles long list of talent all over the park.
The Magpies are at long odds for a reason, and with an 0-3 record as the away underdog in hand, it’s tough to trust Collingwood on the road this week.
Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.18
Same Game Multi: West Coast 1-39, Josh Kennedy to Score 3+ Goals, Over 164.5 Total Points
2017
The 2017 AFL regular season was an absolute roller-coaster ride that delivered right to its conclusion and we are set for four fascinating weeks of AFL Finals.
The action begins on Thursday when Adelaide host the GWS Giants in a qualifying final and arguably the most anticipated game of the weekend will take place on Friday night when Geelong and Richmond do battle.
Sydney and Essendon as well as Port Adelaide and West Coast will fight to keep their seasons alive on Saturday and these teams have already played a couple of thrillers this season.
All four of these games are very interesting from a betting perspective and our complete 2017 AFL Finals Week 1 tips can be found below.
Adelaide went into the AFL Finals on the back of a pair of losses, but they will still start this clash with the Greater Western Sydney Giants as clear favourites.
The Crows beat GWS in the first round of the AFL regular season and that was the start of a very consistent campaign.
Adelaide have proved particularly tough to beat in front of their home fans this season and they have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the line for a big profit.
Injuries have taken their toll on GWS this season and they didn’t win the minor premiership in a canter as expected, but there is still speculation that they are the one team in the top eight that is capable of going to another level.
The Giants were badly beaten by Geelong in their final regular season clash and they haven’t been particularly impressive away from home, but they have won their two games as away underdogs this season for a nice profit.
It was in qualifying final last year when the Giants were able to take a big step forward with their dominant display against the Sydney Swans and a repeat of that effort is definitely not out of the question on Thursday night.
There isn’t as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Giants are excellent value to secure a preliminary finals berth.
Back GWS Giants To Win @ $2.75
This is a huge moment for the Richmond Football Club and they have the opportunity to book their first visit to the preliminary finals since 2001.
Geelong scored a fighting win over Richmond when these teams met at Simonds Stadium less than a month ago and it is the Cats that will go into this clash as favourites.
Injuries were cruel on Geelong in the second half of the season, but they still won four of their past five games and played some excellent football in the process.
Geelong have won 12 of their past 19 games as favourites for a small profit, but their record against the line when giving away a start is a very poor 6-11 and they have been a tough team to trust from a betting perspective this season.
Richmond lost only one of their last seven games of the regular season, but that loss did come at the hands of Geelong and they played some incredibly poor football in that contest.
The Tigers have been one of the best betting sides in the AFL this season and they have won five of their nine games as underdogs for a big profit, while they are an impressive 7-2 against the line when being given a start.
This is a massive opportunity for Richmond and a game that they really do need to win – the pressure on them going into a semi-final next weekend would be nothing short of enormous.
There is a lot to like about Richmond heading into this clash and I am keen to back them with the insurance of a 5.5 point start – for obvious reasons.
Back Richmond To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)
The Sydney Swans may have finished outside the top four, but they are still on the second line of AFL Premiership betting markets and are dominant favourites to account for Essendon this weekend.
Sydney could hardly have been slower out of the gates in 2017, but they could hardly have been more impressive in the second half of the season and since round six the only side that they have lost to is Hawthorn.
They were a touch lucky to beat Essendon when they met in a thriller earlier in the season although there is an argument to be made that Sydney have definitely gone to another level since that clash.
The Swans have won only eight of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear loss, but they are a profitable 7-6 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon have flown under the radar somewhat in 2017, but the fact that they have made the finals after a bulk of their list missed the entire season in 2016 is a testament to the mental strength of the football club.
The Bombers generally did struggle against the very best sides in the competition, but as mentioned earlier they did push Sydney when they met earlier this season.
Essendon have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario and the line of 32.5 points does seem excessive.
This clash will be closer than the market suggests and I am keen on Essendon to cover the line with a very healthy start.
Back Essendon To Beat The Line (+32.5 Points)
The rivalry between Port Adelaide and the West Coast Eagles is one of the most unusual in the AFL and this is a fascinating contest from a betting perspective.
The away side has won the past five games played between these two sides, but it is still Port Adelaide that will go into this clash as favourites.
Port Adelaide went into the finals on the back of three straight wins and they did beat West Coast comfortably when they met a couple of months ago.
The big query over the Power this season has been their record against the best sides in the AFL, but they have still been a profitable side from a betting perspective.
They have won eight of their past 10 games as home favourites and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario – although one of those defeats did come at the hands of West Coast.
It is something of a miracle that the West Coast Eagles have even made the finals and they will have taken plenty of confidence from their thrilling final round win over the Adelaide Crows.
Winning away from home has not been as much of an issue as it generally is for West Coast this season and they have won two of their five games as away underdogs for a big profit.
Port Adelaide will start this clash as clear favourites, but if West Coast bring their best football to the Adelaide Oval they will be right in this contest and they are defintely the value at their current odds.
Back West Coast Eagles To Win @ $2.85
2016
After a weeks break since the end of the season, the AFL Finals finally get underway this weekend.
The AFL Finals first included eight teams for the first time in 1994 and they used the controversial McIntyre System from then until 1999 before the current system came into place in 2000.
Finishing in the top four is vital in the AFL as no team has made the Grand Final from outside the top four since this finals system was introduced and only five of the 32 losing qualifying finalists failed to win their semi-final a week later.
The West Coast Eagles earnt a home final with their final round victory over the Adelaide Crows and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Many AFL experts were quick to write off West Coast in the second half of the season, but they have lost just one of their past eight games and go into the finals on the back of three straight wins over Greater Western Sydney, Hawthorn and Adelaide.
Earning a home final was huge for West Coast as they have won 11 of their past 12 games as home favourites and are 9-3 against the line in this situation.
The Western Bulldogs finished the AFL regular season with a loss at the hands of Fremantle and they face another very tricky assignment in Perth.
The Bulldogs lost another player to injury in the form of Tom Boyd and they have really down remarkably well to make it this far into the season with the injury toll they have had to cop with.
West Coast look extremely well-placed to make it to the second week of the AFL Finals and they are a good bet to beat the line of 26.5 points comfortably.
Back West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-26.5 Points)
This is a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster and one of the most anticipated games of the 2016 AFL season to date.
Geelong warmed up for the finals with a dominant performance against Melbourne and they are another outfit that will head into the finals on the back of a winning streak.
The Cats don’t have the advantage of a home semi-final, but they will still go into this clash as favourites after they beat Hawthorn earlier this season.
Geelong had an excellent record as home favourites this season, but they have generally under-performed away from their home stadium and are just 3-7 against the line as favourites not at Simonds Stadium this season.
There were plenty of nervous moments, but Hawthorn secured a place in the top four with a narrow victory over Collingwood.
There have been a number of warning sides for Hawthorn at the tail end of the regular season, but they have proven time and time again that they have gear they can go to when it really matters.
They find themselves in the unusual position of being underdogs this weekend and this should not be a problem – they are 2-1 as underdogs this season for a tidy little profit.
This will be a very hotly contested clash, but I can’t get Geelong as short as their current quote – they rely too much on Patrick Dangerfield – and Hawthorn are a great bet at their price.
Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2.30
This is one of the biggest games in the history of Australian Rules Football in New South Wales.
Sydney secured the minor premiership with a dominant victory over Richmond, but they face a much tougher task in the first week of the AFL Finals against their cross-town rivals.
Greater Western Sydney recorded a comfortable victory over Sydney in their second meeting of the season, but it is Sydney that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Sydney have won 15 of their 21 games as favourites this season for a narrow loss, while they are 12-9 against the line in this scenario.
This is the first game that the Swans have played at ANZ Stadium this season, but they have won 12 out of their past 19 games at the venue.
This is a massive moment for Greater Western Sydney and how this young list handle their first ever finals clash will be extremely interesting.
Greater Western Sydney have only started two games as away underdogs this season and they lost them both, but they have an overall record as underdogs this season of 3-2.
The Giants are yet to win a game at ANZ Stadium, but it is fair to say that they are a much stronger side than when they used to play semi-regular fixtures at the venue.
This will be a fascinating clash and extremely interesting from a football standpoint, but the market looks to have got the head-to-head market just about right.
The betting market that I am keen to play in this fixture is the total points betting market.
The under is 23-16 in the past 39 games played at ANZ Stadium and it is a venue that is not conducive to high-scoring matches.
Back The Under
The Adelaide Crows missed out on a golden opportunity to finish in the top four, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.
Adelaide could have secured a top two finish with a win over West Coast and they instead produced one of their most disappointing performances of the season.
The Crows will still go into this clash as clear favourites and they are expected to qualify for the second week of the finals, but don’t offer a great deal of value at their current quote.
Adelaide are 6-2 as home favourites this season for a loss and they finished the regular season with a record of 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne head into the finals on the back of a four game losing streak and they are now out to $101 in AFL Premiership betting markets.
Off-field dramas surrounding the future of Brent Harvey and three other club stalwarts dominated talk surrounding North Melbourne last week and the fact that they have won just two of their past eight games was swept under the rug.
North Melbourne have won just two of their seven games as away underdogs this season and their record against the line is not much better.
Adelaide should win this clash comfortably, but there is no value at their current quote and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.
No Bet