2018 AFL Round 10 Preview

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The West Coast Eagles went to the top of the AFL Ladder, the Brisbane Lions won a game and the Carlton Football Club hit a new low – it all happened in the AFL last weekend.

West Coast face another tough challenge against Hawthorn in another massive game on Sunday night, while Richmond will have the chance to return to winning form when they take on the struggling St Kilda.

Throw in a host of other big games and we are set for a simply outstanding weekend of action and our complete 2018 AFL Round 10 tips can be found below!

Collingwood Vs Western Bulldogs

Friday 25 May, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

Collingwood returned to winning form with a comfortable victory over St Kilda last weekend and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

The Magpies have generally won when they have been expected to this season and they have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

The Western Bulldogs kicked only two goals in their defeat at the hands of the Adelaide Crows last weekend and their four wins this season have come against the four sides that currently sit below them on the AFL ladder.

They have lost their past five games as away underdogs and have failed to cover the line in any of these defeats, but they have won their past five games against Collingwood.

Collingwood really should be able to end their losing streak against the Western Bulldogs and they can cover the line in the process.

Back Collingwood To Cover The Line (-17.5 Points)

Richmond Vs St Kilda

Saturday 26 May, 1:45pm, MCG

Richmond had their winning run ended by the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this game with St Kilda as dominant favourites.

The Tigers have been able to turn the MCG into a genuine fortress and they have won their past 13 matches at the venue, which includes a big win over St Kilda in the final round of the regular season last year.

Richmond have won 15 of their past 18 games as favourites and they have covered the line in 12 of these wins.

St Kilda suffered yet another defeat when they went down to Collingwood last weekend and they are now genuine wooden spoon contenders.

They have won only one of their past 14 games as underdogs and they are a simply shocking 3-11 against the line in this scenario.

This could really get ugly for the struggling Saints and Richmond are more than capable of covering the hefty line of 44.5 points.

Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-44.5 Points)

Brisbane Lions Vs Sydney Swans

Saturday 26 May, 4:35pm, The Gabba

The Brisbane Lions recorded their first win of the season last weekend, but they face another tough assignment against Sydney on Saturday.

Sydney made it two wins on the trot with a very comfortable win over Fremantle and they have won their past 11 games against the Lions – they have not lost to their rivals since 2009.

The Swans have won six of their past eight games as away favourites and they have covered the line in five of their wins in this scenario.

Brisbane have proven they are capable of scoring points and they could hardly have been more impressive offensively against Hawthorn.

The Lions have now won three of their past eight games as home underdogs and they are 5-3 against the line in this situation.

Backing the Over in the Total Points betting market in games involving the Lions this season has been a highly profitable betting play and the line of 177.5 points doe not look like enough.

Back Over 177.5 Points

Geelong Vs Carlton

Saturday 26 May, 7:25pm, GMHBA Stadium

There are plenty of short-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend and Geelong are the shortest of the lot.

The Cats produced their worst performance of the season to date to go down to Essendon last weekend and they are a side that rarely lose two games on the trot – they have done so only once over the past 12 months.

Geelong have won only four of their past seven games as home favourites and they are a poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton were one of the few sides that had a worse weekend than Geelong.

They conceded 25 goals and suffered an 109 point loss at the hands of Melbourne – only a week after finally recording their first win of the season.

It is almost impossible to back Carlton with any real confidence and they have won only one of their past nine games as away underdogs, while they have also been a losing play against the line in this scenario.

There is little doubt that Geelong should return to winning form, but there is no value at their current price and this is a game I’m happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

GWS Giants Vs Essendon

Saturday 26 May, 7:25pm, Spotless Stadium

It is fair to say that there has rarely been more pressure on Greater Western Sydney heading into a single game of football.

The Giants have lost three games on the trot in fairly lacklustre fashion and they will officially be in a slump if they fail to beat Essendon this weekend.

Greater Western Sydney have won eight of their past 10 games as home favourites, but they are a very poor 3-7 against the line in this situation.

Essendon ended their own losing streak with an upset win over Geelong last weekend and they need to keep winning if they are going to get their season back on track.

The Bombers have won two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

Essendon are a better side than their current record suggests and it would not surprise if they are able to give the Giants a genuine scare this weekend.

Back Essendon To Cover The Line (+16.5 Points)

Hawthorn Vs West Coast Eagles

Sunday 27 May, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium

The West Coast Eagles are now the outright competition leaders and they are favourites to make it nine wins on the trot when they take on Hawthorn this weekend.

West Coast have now proven that they are the real deal and this will be a test of the character as it could be easy to produce a flat effort after such a big win over the defending premiers.

They have won three of their past four games as away favourites, but they are only 1-3 against the line in this situation.

Hawthorn head into this clash on the back of a poor loss at the hands of the Brisbane Lions and they have now slipped outside the top eight.

Backing Hawthorn as underdogs has been a profitable betting play over the past 12 months and they have won three of their past five games as home underdogs, while they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.

It would not surprise to see West Coast produce a flat performance this weekend and Hawthorn are good value to come away with an upset win.

Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2.25

Melbourne Vs Adelaide

Sunday 27 May, 3:20pm, TIO Traeger Park

This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend and a huge test for the Melbourne Football Club.

Melbourne have now recorded four wins on the trot and they go into this clash on the back of a massive win over Carlton.

Adelaide are easily the toughest test that Melbourne have faced since they lost to Richmond, but the Demons will still start this clash as favourites.

Melbourne have won ten of their past 14 games as favourites and they are 7-7 against the line in this scenario.

The Crows continue to struggle with injury problems, but they were still able to tough out a win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they remain inside the top four.

Adelaide have thrown in some poor performances at times this season, but they are still a side with plenty of quality and it is tough to see how they will go into this clash as underdogs.

The pressure is on Melbourne and this hasn’t been a position in which they have thrived in recent seasons.

Back Adelaide To Win @ $2

Fremantle Vs North Melbourne

Sunday 27 May, 4:40pm, Optus Stadium

There is not a great deal between these two sides in betting.

Fremantle were no match for Sydney last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with North Melbourne as clear favourites.

The Dockers have won their past three games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins – they continue to be a side that the market does get right most weeks.

North Melbourne produced another excellent performance to beat Greater Western Sydney last weekend, but producing those sort of efforts week in, week out has proven to be a problem for the Kangaroos.

Winning away from has is another issue for North Melbourne and they have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs, while they haven’t beaten Fremantle in Perth since 2014.

Backing Fremantle as favourites continues to be a profitable play and they can account for an inconsistent North Melbourne this weekend.

Back Fremantle To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)


2017

The 2017 AFL season continues to be highlighted by unpredictability and we are set for another exciting weekend of football.

The round gets underway with a crucial Thursday night clash between Geelong and Port Adelaide and continues until a Sunday afternoon blockbuster between the West Coast Eagles and the GWS Giants.

We have analysed every game in what should be a competitive weekend of football and our complete AFL Round 10 tips can be found below.

Geelong Vs Port Adelaide

Thursday 25 May, 7:50pm, Simonds Stadium

Geelong 81 - Port Adelaide 79

Geelong ended their losing streak with a win over the Western Bulldogs and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

It was a happy return to Simonds Stadium for Geelong last weekend, but they face another challenge against Port Adelaide and they are a team that have failed to thrive as the punter’s elect.

Geelong have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are a particularly poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

Port Adelaide head into this clash fresh after a week off and they will be looking to build on what has been a decent start to the season.

The Power have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they have often saved their best performances for the toughest competition in the AFL.

There is not as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and Port Adelaide are genuine value to record an upset victory.

Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.30

Sydney Swans Vs Hawthorn

Friday 26 May, 7:50pm, SCG

Sydney Swans 75 - Hawthorn 81

The rivalry between the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn is one of the fiercest in the AFL and this is a crucial game for both sides.

Sydney have bounced back from their slow start to the season to win three games on the trot and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

While the Swans have played well in recent weeks, they are still a tough side to trust from a betting standpoint and they have won only seven of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear loss.

Hawthorn let slip a big lead to go down to Collingwood last weekend and they continue to be a side with plenty of issues.

The Hawks have won two of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.

I really don’t think that there is as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and the Hawks are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 29.5 points.

Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (+29.5 Points)

Western Bulldogs Vs St Kilda

Saturday 27 May, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 90 - St Kilda 50

The Western Bulldogs continue to struggle for consistency, but they will still start this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.

The Bulldogs head into this clash on the back of defeats at the hands of West Coast and Geelong and they are yet to string together a solid four quarter performance this season.

They have won 11 of their past 15 games as favourites, but they are an extremely poor 4-11 against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda had their winning run ended by the Sydney Swans and they face another tough challenge against the Western Bulldogs this weekend.

The Saints have won seven of their past 14 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 8-6 against the line when giving away a start.

Taking on the Western Bulldogs has proven to be a profitable play so far this season and St Kilda are more than capable of giving them a scare on Saturday afternoon.

Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+13.5 Points)

Melbourne Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 27 May, 4:35pm, TIO Traeger Park

Melbourne 122 - Gold Coast Suns 87

Melbourne have taken their home game to TIO Traeger Park in Alice Springs and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

The Demons continue to struggle for consistency and they were most disappointing against North Melbourne last weekend.

Melbourne have won only five of their past ten games as favourites and they are a poor 3-7 against the line when giving away a start.

Gold Coast went into the bye on the back of a shocking performance against Port Adelaide in China and they are another side that can’t string together solid performances.

The Suns have won only two of their past 15 games as underdogs and they are 7-8 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne and the Gold Coast are both very tough to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this game.

No Bet

Richmond Vs Essendon

Saturday 27 May, 7:25pm, MCG

Richmond 81 - Essendon 66

It has been a tough month for Richmond, but they will still go into this clash with Essendon as narrow favourites.

Losing three games in a row by less than a goal is heart-breaking in its own right and the manner of their past two defeats at the hands of Fremantle and GWS has to be mentally draining for a football side.

Richmond have won seven of their past eight games as favourites and there is no doubt they have played better football than Essendon this season, but it will be interesting to see how they do bounce back.

Essendon made it two impressive wins on the trot with a comprehensive defeat of the West Coast Eagles and they now find themselves just outside of the top eight.

The Bombers have won six of their past 19 games as underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 11-8 against the line in this scenario.

This really is a huge game for Richmond and I’m banking on them getting their season back on track with a confidence building win.

Back Richmond To Win @ $1.85

Adelaide Crows Vs Fremantle

Saturday 27 May, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide Crows 143 - Fremantle 43

Adelaide ended their losing streak with a comfortable win over the Brisbane Lions and they are clear favourites to make it back-to-back wins this weekend.

The Crows have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are more impressively 7-3 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle came from behind to beat Carlton last weekend and they have now won six of their past seven games.

The Dockers have now won two of their past nine games as away underdogs, but they remain a very poor 2-7 against the line in this situation.

Adelaide are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the AFL and it is easy to see why, if they perform at anywhere near their best they should be able to cover the line comfortably.

Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-34.5 Points)

Collingwood Vs Brisbane Lions

Sunday 28 May, 1:10pm, MCG

Collingwood 129 - Brisbane Lions 84

Collingwood recorded one of their best wins of the season against Hawthorn last weekend and they will go into this clash as dominant favourites.

The Magpies are one of a number of teams in the AFL that have struggled for consistency this season, but they have proven to be a profitable betting play against the line as home favourites and there was plenty to like about the character they showed against Hawthorn.

2017 continues to be a serious struggle for the Brisbane Lions and they suffered another heavy defeat at the hands of the Adelaide Crows last weekend.

Brisbane have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are a profitable 7-4 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood go into this clash as deserving favourites, but it is difficult to get them as short as their current quote and the market looks to have got this game just about right.

No Bet

Carlton Vs North Melbourne

Sunday 28 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton 96 - North Melbourne 113

North Melbourne go into this clash as clear favourites and they have the chance to make it four wins from their past five games.

North Melbourne produced one of their best efforts of the season to date to beat Melbourne last weekend and they really should be able to win again this weekend.

In saying that North Melbourne have been a tough side to trust from a betting standpoint – The Kangaroos have won only four of their past seven games as favourites and they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton led early against Fremantle before they fell in a hole late and scoring points continues to be an issue for the Navy Blues.

Carlton have proven to be a profitable betting play as underdogs over the past 12 months and they have covered the line in ten of their past 18 games when receiving a start.

The Blues have the defensive toughness to trouble a North Melbourne outfit that can be a touch flakey mentally and they are good value to record an upset win at their current price of $2.85.

Back Carlton To Win @ $2.85

West Coast Eagles Vs GWS Giants

Sunday 28 May, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium

West Coast Eagles 90 - GWS Giants 98

This is easily the match of the round in the AFL.

The West Coast Eagles produced another shocking performance in Melbourne to go down to Essendon, but they will still go into this clash with the Giants as clear favourites.

West Coast have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a narrow profit and they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

Greater Western Sydney got themselves out of jail once again with a late goal against Richmond, but their slow starts are sure to catch up with them at some point.

The Giants have won two of their past three games that they have started as underdogs and they are 3-0 against the line when giving away a start.

West Coast are obviously very tough to beat in front of their home fans, but the Giants really do appeal at their current price and they are more than capable of beating the Eagles for the first time.

Back GWS Giants To Win @ $2.25


2016

There are a number of games in round ten of the 2016 AFL season that involve teams that have struggled against their rivals in recent seasons.

The Brisbane Lions host Hawthorn on Saturday and are chasing their first home win against the Hawks for over a decade, while the Melbourne Demons have lost their past six game against Port Adelaide.

Carlton face Geelong on Sunday – a team they have struggled against since they beat them in the 1995 AFL Grand Final – and the Gold Coast Suns will have the chance to record their first ever win over West Coast.

Sydney Swans Vs North Melbourne

Friday 27 May, 7:50pm, SCG

Sydney Swans 91 - North Melbourne 65

This is a rematch of a semifinal from last season, which the North Melbourne Kangaroos won before they lost to the West Coast Eagles in the preliminary final.

Sydney have generally had the upper hand against North Melbourne in recent years and have won 9 of the past 11 games played between the two sides, but they face a Kangaroos side that has made a flawless start to the season.

The market is confident that Sydney will be the team that can end North Melbourne’s winning streak and the Swans are 9-2 as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne have been an excellent betting team over the past 12 months and while they have won only two of their past five games as away underdogs, they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.

I think that the market has not given North Melbourne the respect that they deserve heading into this fixture and I am keen to back the Kangaroos with a start of 18.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (+18.5 Points)

Brisbane Lions Vs Hawthorn

Saturday 28 May, 1:45pm, The Gabba

Brisbane Lions 87 - Hawthorn 135

The Brisbane Lions have struggled badly against Hawthorn in recent seasons and it is tough to see that changing this weekend.

The Lions produced a somewhat improved performance against Melbourne last weekend, but they were still beaten by over ten goals and they face a very difficult assignment against the Hawks this weekend.

While the Lions have won just two of their past eight games as home underdogs they are actually 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

It has been a tough fortnight for Hawthorn, but there is very little doubt that they will be able to return to winning form this weekend.

They have won 11 of their past 14 games as away favourites and it has been a number of seasons since they lost back-to-back games, while they are 9-5 against the line as away favourites.

The Hawks will win this game, but the line of 50.5 points seems just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Melbourne Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 28 May, 1:40pm, TIO Traeger Park

Melbourne 76 - Port Adelaide 121

Melbourne have a very poor record against Port Adelaide in recent seasons and they have lost the past six games played between the two sides, but they go into this clash as narrow favourites.

The Demons have won four out of their past six fixtures, but their record as favourites in the past 12 months is still a very average 2-4 and they remain difficult to trust from a betting prospective.

Port Adelaide have lost two games on the trot, but they did produce an improved performance against the West Coast Eagles last weekend.

The Power are 2-5 as underdogs in the past 12 months, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario and have proven to be a profitable betting proposition as away underdogs.

Melbourne are 2-7 on the back of wins in the last season and I am willing to take them on this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.15

St Kilda Vs Fremantle

Saturday 28 May, 4:35pm, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda 101 - Fremantle 67

The ‘Ross Lyon Cup’ takes an extra twist this year as St Kilda can inflict a tenth straight defeat on their former coach and the struggling Fremantle.

The Saints got the job done against Essendon last weekend and they will start this game as favourites as they aim for their first back-to-back wins for over a year.

St Kilda have only started three games as favourites in the past year, but they have won all three of these games and they have won three of their past four games against Fremantle in this situation.

The Dockers horrid season continued with a poor performance against Richmond last weekend and they have now won just one of their past 12 games as underdogs, while they are 4-8 against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda may never have a better chance to record back-to-back wins and they should be able to do so comfortably this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)

Essendon Vs Richmond

Saturday 28 May, 7:25pm, MCG

Essendon 67 - Richmond 105

Richmond made a completely woeful start to the 2016 AFL season, but they turned it around with their thrilling win over Sydney and can make it three wins in a row against the Bombers this weekend.

The Tigers were far from impressive against Fremantle, but they were still able to get the job done and another trademan like performance will be enough to get them home over the Bombers.

Richmond have been only a middling 10-8 as favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line when giving away a start is a particularly poor 6-12.

Essendon were fairly uninspiring against St Kilda last weekend and they continue to struggle to string together quality performances in back-to-back weeks.

The Bombers have won just three of their 22 matches as underdogs and they are 10-12 against the line in this scenario.

I have been more than happy to stay out of Essendon games in recent weeks and I will be using that strategy again this weekend.

Adelaide Vs GWS Giants

Saturday 28 May, 7:10pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide 107 - Greater Western Sydney Giants 85

This is arguably the most interesting game of the weekend and there is very little between the two teams in the current betting market.

Adelaide ended their two game losing streak with a big win over the Gold Coast Suns last weekend and they will go into this game as narrow favourites.

The Crows are 3-1 as home favourites in head to head betting this year, but they have not been a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.

Greater Western Sydney made it six wins in a row with a professional victory over the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they are now being spoken about as genuine top four contenders.

The issue for the Giants has been their form away from home and they have not won a single game as away underdogs in the past 12 months.

The Giants are due for a poor performance and they will need to be at their best to beat Adelaide this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.83

Carlton Vs Geelong

Sunday 29 May, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton 104 - Geelong 85

Carlton’s winning run came to an end against North Melbourne last weekend and they face another tough assignment against Geelong.

The Blues were never able to get into the hunt against the Kangaroos and a similar performance could see them suffer a very big defeat at the hands of Geelong.

In saying that, Carlton have been a winning betting proposition as home underdogs in the past 12 months and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

Geelong suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Collingwood last weekend and it will be very interesting to see how they bounce back from that effort.

The Cats are 3-1-3 as away favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this situation is a poor 2-5.

The Blues are being given a sizable start of 40.5 points and if they can bounce back to a semblance of their best form they have the chance to give the Cats a minor scare.

Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+40.5 Points)

Collingwood Vs Western Bulldogs

Sunday 29 May, 3:20pm, MCG

Collingwood 53 - Western Bulldogs 74

Collingwood got their season back on track with their upset win over Geelong last weekend and they go into this clash with the Western Bulldogs as genuine winning chances.

The Magpies finally produced the type of football that they are capable of, but they will still start this game as underdogs despite the injury-depleted status of their rivals.

Collingwood are 4-8 as underdogs in the past 12 months for a narrow profit in head-to-head betting markets, while they are 8-4 against the line in this scenario.

Injuries may have finally caught up with the Western Bulldogs, but they still produced a credible performance against the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and they will take confidence from the fact that they have only lost back-to-back games just once in the past 12 months.

The Bulldogs have been one of the most reliable teams in the competition in the past 12 months and they have won 13 of their past 15 games as home favourites and beaten the line in ten of these fixtures.

This is is set to be a very interesting fixture, but the market seems to have got it just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

West Coast Eagles Vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday 29 May, 2:40pm, Domain Stadium

West Coast Eagles 132 - Gold Coast Suns 55

The West Coast Eagles are yet to lose a game to the Gold Coast Suns, but the two sides played out an exciting draw at Metricon Stadium last season.

A first win for the Suns against their rivals is not expected and West Coast are currently the shortest-priced favourites of the season to date.

This price is fair for many reasons – West Coast have won their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 11-1 against the line in this scenario, while the Gold Coast Suns have played some putrid football in recent weeks.

The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are an awful 2-7 against the line, but they are being given a huge start of 79.5 points.

Only 19 teams have been given such a big start in the AFL since 2012 and they all won, but only seven of the 19 covered and I can’t recommend taking on a line that large.

Recommended Bet: No Bet