The favourites came through last week to provide a little more clarity in what has so far been a chaotic season.
Up until this point, the ladder was a guessing game, but we’re finally starting to get a feel for who might be the contenders and who might be the pretenders moving forward.
This weekend mightn’t be the most exciting, but there’s still a pair of Saturday and Sunday blockbusters to look forward to.
We’ve done all the form and analysis, and our complete 2019 AFL Round 10 Preview can be found below.
Friday May 24, 7:50pm, SCG
Nathan Buckley posed a question to his side following a close shave against Carlton, and as expected, the Pies responded with a convincing 41-point win over St. Kilda.
Collingwood never really looked threatened despite leading by only two goals at half time. The Pies raced away to boot six in the final term, extending their winning streak to six ahead of Friday nights trip to the SCG.
Sydney have also gone on a run of late stringing together a pair of wins to improve to 14th on the ladder. Last week’s five-point win over North Melbourne in Tasmania got the job done, but there’s still plenty to be desired from John Longmire’s side.
These two played only once last year, and just like last week, it was another close call for the Swans. Sydney survived by two-points at home to the Pies, largely due to a whopping six-goal bag from Buddy Franklin.
The superstar forward is set to miss his fifth-straight game this weekend with a hamstring injury, but that’s not the only reason the Swans find themselves as serious outsiders at home.
Sydney are currently 3-4 straight-up as the home favourite over the last 12 months, while their 4-4 record as the home favourite against Collingwood isn’t quite so convincing either.
The Pies have been unlucky with injuries in recent weeks, but the good news is Mason Cox is ready to return on Friday. Having to choose between the likes of Cox, Ben Reid and Brody Mihocek is a good problem to have if you’re Buckley, and one that should see the Pies win easily.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.06
Saturday May 25, 1:45pm, UTAS Stadium Launceston
It’s only Round 10, but this feels like a vitally important game if the Hawks hold any hopes of playing finals this year.
Alastair Clarkson’s side went down by 36-points to the Tigers last week in a game dominated by Dustin Martin. The Hawks now head home to their Tasmanian fortress in Launceston, but as we saw last month against Carlton, the brown and gold are still vulnerable down south.
Port haven’t had long to celebrate rejoining the top eight, but their 38-point win over the Suns last week at least keeps critics at bay for another week.
Unfortunately for the Power, they too drew the short straw when they visited the Hawks in Tassie last year. Ken Hinkley’s side lost by three-points in a Round 11 thriller – extending the Power’s record in Tasmania to 0-4.
The Hawks have opened as the favourites with home-field advantage this week, and it’s certainly hard to look past their 4-1 record in this scenario against the Power. Even so, Port are 2-0 as the line underdog against the Hawks, and with Ben McEvoy under some doubt with an ankle injury, the Power look good value to win the ruck contest and more importantly, the game.
Tip: Back the Power to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 25, 2:10pm, Marvel Stadium
With nothing but bragging rights on the line, this should be a fascinating battle between two sides desperate to make up for last week’s shortcomings.
Full credit to the Dogs, they took it to the Cats for the better part of three quarters down in Geelong. One quick look at the stat sheet shows just how close Luke Beveridge’s side came to causing an upset, but unfortunately the Dogs’ lack of fourth quarter composure cost them six goals in the final term.
The Roos can also relate to losing a close game after falling by five-points to the Swans in Tasmania last week. North dominated the disposal and inside 50 counts by a wide margin, but their wayward efforts in front of goal cost them in the end.
Looking forward, this game should turn out to be equally as close if recent history is anything to go by. The last four encounters between these two sides have been decided by 10-points or less, including last year’s pair of nail-biters at Marvel Stadium.
The bookies seem to have sided with the Dogs, but North have shown a lot of fight over the last three weeks. The Roos also challenged the Cats a fortnight ago, but unfortunately their 1-6 record as the away underdog makes them tough to back.
Instead, ride with the Points market here. These two sides rank Top 10 in behinds this season, and given their woes in front of goal over the last month, back the Under.
Tip: Under 169.5 Total Points @ $1.87
West Coast Eagles
Saturday May 25, 4:05pm, Adelaide Oval
It’s not only a battle of the birds, it’s also a battle between sixth and seventh.
The Eagles continue to put wins on the board, but that’s about all you can say after last week’s underwhelming 16-point win over the Demons.
Adelaide, on the other hand, fought gallantly up in Brisbane only to walk away with a one-point loss. The Crows still look like one of the teams to beat in this year’s competition, but they’ll need to turn up ready for the fight if they wish to make good on their 2-2 record at home this year.
The Crows came away on top the last time these sides met at Adelaide Oval in 2018. It was a narrow 10-point win, but Taylor Walker’s three-goal bag meant the difference between winning and losing.
West Coast can win this game if they match Adelaide’s speedy forwards, but it’s certainly hard to back against the Crows’ 6-4 record following a loss.
Adelaide can rest easy knowing they’ve allowed the fewest goals to opposing teams this year, and with a 7-4 record as the favourite over the last 12 months, back Adelaide to get the job done in another close one.
Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.06
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday May 25, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
A 44-point win over the Bulldogs was enough to keep the Cats four points clear atop the table for another week.
Geelong survived a first half scare to race away with six goals in the final quarter at The Cattery, but the win didn’t come without a loss as Patrick Dangerfield could miss this week’s trip to the Gold Coast with an ankle injury.
Dangerfield’s absence will come as welcome news to the Suns after losing their fifth straight game last weekend. Stuart Dew deserves praise for his efforts with this young side, but Gold Coast’s 38-point belting at the hands of the Power is worrying ahead of Saturday’s meeting with the premiership favourites.
Since their inception in 2011, the Suns are 2-3 at home against the Cats. Geelong won by 85-points at Metricon last season before defeating the Gold Coast by 102-points at Simonds in Round 23.
With all that in mind, it’s no surprise to see the Cats at a very slim price. Geelong are 4-3 as the away favourite over the last 12 months and 3-2 on the road against the Suns.
If they wish to extend their winning streak to six however, Chris Scott’s side needs to ensure they treat this Suns team with respect. Despite winning comfortably in the end, the Cats kept things interesting in the first half against both North Melbourne and the Bulldogs in recent weeks. If they start out slow at Metricon, the Gold Coast’s strong 2-1 record as the line underdog could be a nice play.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+33.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday May 25, 7:25pm, MCG
The Tigers pounced all over the Hawks last week in a win that reminded everyone just how special Dustin Martin can be.
Richmond’s 36-point victory was capped off by Dusty’s 37 disposal, two-goal performance, but really, the pressure from Damien Hardwick’s side was the real story as the Tigers rewound the clock to their 2016 best.
Essendon also had plenty to celebrate last week as they fought hard for a gutsy seven-point win over the Dockers at Marvel. The Bombers were electric through the midfield and around the stoppages, while Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti once again chipped in with a handy three-goal bag.
This game should have plenty of feel about it on Saturday, although it is worth noting the Tigers have enjoyed the better part of this match up over the last five years.
Richmond have won eight straight over the Dons dating back to 2014, but if this game is anything like last year’s Round 22 thriller, we should be in for a real treat.
One of the telling signs of Richmond’s season has been their lack of composure through the midfield. Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but the fact the Tigers lead the competition in opponent disposals is a telling sign.
For Essendon, keeping it clean through the middle of the ground could prove the difference between winning or losing. The Bombers also rank fifth in clearances, so if their superior forward line can challenge Richmond’s depleted back line, Essendon look a real chance at an upset.
Tip: Back the Bombers To Win @ $2.80
Sunday May 26, 1:10pm, MCG
It’s another big week for Simon Goodwin’s side as the Dees look to make up for last week’s disappointment against the Eagles in Perth.
Melbourne looked well on their way to seeking revenge for last year’s Prelim Final loss, right before the defence was caught napping in the final quarter allowing the Eagles to race away with six game-winning goals.
Sitting third on the ladder, the Giants aren’t quite so desperate for a win, but they’ll certainly be hoping to put an end to their abysmal 2-16 record at the MCG this weekend. The Giants pummeled Carlton by 93-points last week to earn their sixth win of the year, but after last fortnight’s poor performance against the Hawks in Melbourne, there are still plenty of questions left to be answered.
Aside from snapping their MCG hoodoo though, the Giants will also be hoping to make up for their 45-point loss at the hands of the Demons last year. GWS have defeated Melbourne only once in five games so far, but the bookies still seem to be in all-in on the Giants.
It might sound simple, but GWS need to kick straight to win this game. Wayward shots in front of goal cost the Giants against the Hawks, and if they can somehow weather the Demons pressure through the midfield, there shouldn’t be any excuses for Leon Cameron’s side not to walk away with the points.
The Giants are 4-1 as the away favourite against the line over the last 12 months, so back GWS to make a statement and win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sunday May 26, 3:20pm, Marvel Stadium
How fitting that these two clubs meet on Sunday.
The Blues have made headlines for all the wrong reasons after last week’s capitulation against the Giants.
The 93-point margin tells the full story, and as a result, fans are left questioning not only the leadership and belief of the players, but also head coach Brendon Bolton, who finds himself on a fiery hot seat.
After a fast start to the season that at one stage saw the Saints inside the top four, St. Kilda have crashed back down to earth suffering four straight losses.
There were plenty of positives to take away from last week’s loss to Collingwood, but that’s been the story for Alan Richardson’s side over the last 18 months: strong signs, but very little to show for it.
St. Kilda own four straight wins over Carlton, so that should leave the Saints feeling confident this weekend. With very little value on offer head-to-head though, unfortunately St. Kilda’s poor 1-3 record as the line favourite makes them tough to back this weekend in a game that could very well see the Blues respond to a week of criticism.
Tip: No Bet
Sunday May 26, 3:20pm, Optus Stadium
Brisbane’s one-point win over the Crows at home last week was enough to vault the Lions back inside the top four, but the jury is still out on whether Chris Fagan’s side are a legitimate premiership contender.
This week’s trip to Fremantle should tell us a lot about the Lions resolve, and if it’s anything like last year’s Round 15 win at Optus Stadium, we might receive a pretty firm answer.
Fremantle weren’t disgraced last week against the Bombers losing by only seven-points in Melbourne, but the loss was enough to bump the Dockers down to ninth on the ladder four points shy of Port Adelaide.
Ross Lyon’s side don’t exactly stand out on the stat sheet, but they have been one of the better defensive sides in the competition this year. The Dockers have allowed the third-fewest goals ahead of only the Cats and Crows, which could make life interesting this week for a Lions side that ranks fourth in goals scored.
The bookies appear to have the market bang on for this game, and really, it’s a bit of a coin toss. The Lions are 3-5 as the away underdog over the last 12 months, but their 3-1 record as the line underdog against the Dockers is pretty convincing.
Fremantle, meanwhile, are 6-8 on the back of a loss, and considering the Dockers allowed Daniel McStay to boot three goals in last year’s match – the exact margin the big man booted last week against the Crows – take the Lions to keep it close on the road.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90
The West Coast Eagles went to the top of the AFL Ladder, the Brisbane Lions won a game and the Carlton Football Club hit a new low – it all happened in the AFL last weekend.
West Coast face another tough challenge against Hawthorn in another massive game on Sunday night, while Richmond will have the chance to return to winning form when they take on the struggling St Kilda.
Throw in a host of other big games and we are set for a simply outstanding weekend of action and our complete 2018 AFL Round 10 tips can be found below!
Friday 25 May, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
Pies 90-Dogs 55
Collingwood returned to winning form with a comfortable victory over St Kilda last weekend and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Magpies have generally won when they have been expected to this season and they have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs kicked only two goals in their defeat at the hands of the Adelaide Crows last weekend and their four wins this season have come against the four sides that currently sit below them on the AFL ladder.
They have lost their past five games as away underdogs and have failed to cover the line in any of these defeats, but they have won their past five games against Collingwood.
Collingwood really should be able to end their losing streak against the Western Bulldogs and they can cover the line in the process.
Back Collingwood To Cover The Line (-17.5 Points)
Saturday 26 May, 1:45pm, MCG
Tigers 105-Saints 77
Richmond had their winning run ended by the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this game with St Kilda as dominant favourites.
The Tigers have been able to turn the MCG into a genuine fortress and they have won their past 13 matches at the venue, which includes a big win over St Kilda in the final round of the regular season last year.
Richmond have won 15 of their past 18 games as favourites and they have covered the line in 12 of these wins.
St Kilda suffered yet another defeat when they went down to Collingwood last weekend and they are now genuine wooden spoon contenders.
They have won only one of their past 14 games as underdogs and they are a simply shocking 3-11 against the line in this scenario.
This could really get ugly for the struggling Saints and Richmond are more than capable of covering the hefty line of 44.5 points.
Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-44.5 Points)
Saturday 26 May, 4:35pm, The Gabba
Lions 49-Swans 67
The Brisbane Lions recorded their first win of the season last weekend, but they face another tough assignment against Sydney on Saturday.
Sydney made it two wins on the trot with a very comfortable win over Fremantle and they have won their past 11 games against the Lions – they have not lost to their rivals since 2009.
The Swans have won six of their past eight games as away favourites and they have covered the line in five of their wins in this scenario.
Brisbane have proven they are capable of scoring points and they could hardly have been more impressive offensively against Hawthorn.
The Lions have now won three of their past eight games as home underdogs and they are 5-3 against the line in this situation.
Backing the Over in the Total Points betting market in games involving the Lions this season has been a highly profitable betting play and the line of 177.5 points doe not look like enough.
Back Over 177.5 Points
Saturday 26 May, 7:25pm, GMHBA Stadium
Cats 73-Blues 45
There are plenty of short-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend and Geelong are the shortest of the lot.
The Cats produced their worst performance of the season to date to go down to Essendon last weekend and they are a side that rarely lose two games on the trot – they have done so only once over the past 12 months.
Geelong have won only four of their past seven games as home favourites and they are a poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton were one of the few sides that had a worse weekend than Geelong.
They conceded 25 goals and suffered an 109 point loss at the hands of Melbourne – only a week after finally recording their first win of the season.
It is almost impossible to back Carlton with any real confidence and they have won only one of their past nine games as away underdogs, while they have also been a losing play against the line in this scenario.
There is little doubt that Geelong should return to winning form, but there is no value at their current price and this is a game I’m happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.
Saturday 26 May, 7:25pm, Spotless Stadium
Giants 60 - Dons 95
It is fair to say that there has rarely been more pressure on Greater Western Sydney heading into a single game of football.
The Giants have lost three games on the trot in fairly lacklustre fashion and they will officially be in a slump if they fail to beat Essendon this weekend.
Greater Western Sydney have won eight of their past 10 games as home favourites, but they are a very poor 3-7 against the line in this situation.
Essendon ended their own losing streak with an upset win over Geelong last weekend and they need to keep winning if they are going to get their season back on track.
The Bombers have won two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon are a better side than their current record suggests and it would not surprise if they are able to give the Giants a genuine scare this weekend.
Back Essendon To Cover The Line (+16.5 Points)
West Coast Eagles
Sunday 27 May, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Hawks 60-Eagles 75
The West Coast Eagles are now the outright competition leaders and they are favourites to make it nine wins on the trot when they take on Hawthorn this weekend.
West Coast have now proven that they are the real deal and this will be a test of the character as it could be easy to produce a flat effort after such a big win over the defending premiers.
They have won three of their past four games as away favourites, but they are only 1-3 against the line in this situation.
Hawthorn head into this clash on the back of a poor loss at the hands of the Brisbane Lions and they have now slipped outside the top eight.
Backing Hawthorn as underdogs has been a profitable betting play over the past 12 months and they have won three of their past five games as home underdogs, while they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
It would not surprise to see West Coast produce a flat performance this weekend and Hawthorn are good value to come away with an upset win.
Back Hawthorn To Win @ $2.25
Sunday 27 May, 3:20pm, TIO Traeger Park
Dees 146-Crows 55
This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend and a huge test for the Melbourne Football Club.
Melbourne have now recorded four wins on the trot and they go into this clash on the back of a massive win over Carlton.
Adelaide are easily the toughest test that Melbourne have faced since they lost to Richmond, but the Demons will still start this clash as favourites.
Melbourne have won ten of their past 14 games as favourites and they are 7-7 against the line in this scenario.
The Crows continue to struggle with injury problems, but they were still able to tough out a win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they remain inside the top four.
Adelaide have thrown in some poor performances at times this season, but they are still a side with plenty of quality and it is tough to see how they will go into this clash as underdogs.
The pressure is on Melbourne and this hasn’t been a position in which they have thrived in recent seasons.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $2
Sunday 27 May, 4:40pm, Optus Stadium
Freo 58-North 86
There is not a great deal between these two sides in betting.
Fremantle were no match for Sydney last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with North Melbourne as clear favourites.
The Dockers have won their past three games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins – they continue to be a side that the market does get right most weeks.
North Melbourne produced another excellent performance to beat Greater Western Sydney last weekend, but producing those sort of efforts week in, week out has proven to be a problem for the Kangaroos.
Winning away from has is another issue for North Melbourne and they have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs, while they haven’t beaten Fremantle in Perth since 2014.
Backing Fremantle as favourites continues to be a profitable play and they can account for an inconsistent North Melbourne this weekend.
Back Fremantle To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)
The 2017 AFL season continues to be highlighted by unpredictability and we are set for another exciting weekend of football.
The round gets underway with a crucial Thursday night clash between Geelong and Port Adelaide and continues until a Sunday afternoon blockbuster between the West Coast Eagles and the GWS Giants.
We have analysed every game in what should be a competitive weekend of football and our complete AFL Round 10 tips can be found below.
Thursday 25 May, 7:50pm, Simonds Stadium
Geelong 81 - Port Adelaide 79
Geelong ended their losing streak with a win over the Western Bulldogs and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
It was a happy return to Simonds Stadium for Geelong last weekend, but they face another challenge against Port Adelaide and they are a team that have failed to thrive as the punter’s elect.
Geelong have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are a particularly poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide head into this clash fresh after a week off and they will be looking to build on what has been a decent start to the season.
The Power have won two of their past four games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they have often saved their best performances for the toughest competition in the AFL.
There is not as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and Port Adelaide are genuine value to record an upset victory.
Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.30
Friday 26 May, 7:50pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 75 - Hawthorn 81
The rivalry between the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn is one of the fiercest in the AFL and this is a crucial game for both sides.
Sydney have bounced back from their slow start to the season to win three games on the trot and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
While the Swans have played well in recent weeks, they are still a tough side to trust from a betting standpoint and they have won only seven of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear loss.
Hawthorn let slip a big lead to go down to Collingwood last weekend and they continue to be a side with plenty of issues.
The Hawks have won two of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
I really don’t think that there is as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and the Hawks are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 29.5 points.
Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (+29.5 Points)
Saturday 27 May, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 90 - St Kilda 50
The Western Bulldogs continue to struggle for consistency, but they will still start this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
The Bulldogs head into this clash on the back of defeats at the hands of West Coast and Geelong and they are yet to string together a solid four quarter performance this season.
They have won 11 of their past 15 games as favourites, but they are an extremely poor 4-11 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda had their winning run ended by the Sydney Swans and they face another tough challenge against the Western Bulldogs this weekend.
The Saints have won seven of their past 14 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 8-6 against the line when giving away a start.
Taking on the Western Bulldogs has proven to be a profitable play so far this season and St Kilda are more than capable of giving them a scare on Saturday afternoon.
Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+13.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 27 May, 4:35pm, TIO Traeger Park
Melbourne 122 - Gold Coast Suns 87
Melbourne have taken their home game to TIO Traeger Park in Alice Springs and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Demons continue to struggle for consistency and they were most disappointing against North Melbourne last weekend.
Melbourne have won only five of their past ten games as favourites and they are a poor 3-7 against the line when giving away a start.
Gold Coast went into the bye on the back of a shocking performance against Port Adelaide in China and they are another side that can’t string together solid performances.
The Suns have won only two of their past 15 games as underdogs and they are 7-8 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne and the Gold Coast are both very tough to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this game.
Saturday 27 May, 7:25pm, MCG
Richmond 81 - Essendon 66
It has been a tough month for Richmond, but they will still go into this clash with Essendon as narrow favourites.
Losing three games in a row by less than a goal is heart-breaking in its own right and the manner of their past two defeats at the hands of Fremantle and GWS has to be mentally draining for a football side.
Richmond have won seven of their past eight games as favourites and there is no doubt they have played better football than Essendon this season, but it will be interesting to see how they do bounce back.
Essendon made it two impressive wins on the trot with a comprehensive defeat of the West Coast Eagles and they now find themselves just outside of the top eight.
The Bombers have won six of their past 19 games as underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 11-8 against the line in this scenario.
This really is a huge game for Richmond and I’m banking on them getting their season back on track with a confidence building win.
Back Richmond To Win @ $1.85
Saturday 27 May, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 143 - Fremantle 43
Adelaide ended their losing streak with a comfortable win over the Brisbane Lions and they are clear favourites to make it back-to-back wins this weekend.
The Crows have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are more impressively 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle came from behind to beat Carlton last weekend and they have now won six of their past seven games.
The Dockers have now won two of their past nine games as away underdogs, but they remain a very poor 2-7 against the line in this situation.
Adelaide are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the AFL and it is easy to see why, if they perform at anywhere near their best they should be able to cover the line comfortably.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-34.5 Points)
Sunday 28 May, 1:10pm, MCG
Collingwood 129 - Brisbane Lions 84
Collingwood recorded one of their best wins of the season against Hawthorn last weekend and they will go into this clash as dominant favourites.
The Magpies are one of a number of teams in the AFL that have struggled for consistency this season, but they have proven to be a profitable betting play against the line as home favourites and there was plenty to like about the character they showed against Hawthorn.
2017 continues to be a serious struggle for the Brisbane Lions and they suffered another heavy defeat at the hands of the Adelaide Crows last weekend.
Brisbane have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are a profitable 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood go into this clash as deserving favourites, but it is difficult to get them as short as their current quote and the market looks to have got this game just about right.
Sunday 28 May, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Carlton 96 - North Melbourne 113
North Melbourne go into this clash as clear favourites and they have the chance to make it four wins from their past five games.
North Melbourne produced one of their best efforts of the season to date to beat Melbourne last weekend and they really should be able to win again this weekend.
In saying that North Melbourne have been a tough side to trust from a betting standpoint – The Kangaroos have won only four of their past seven games as favourites and they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton led early against Fremantle before they fell in a hole late and scoring points continues to be an issue for the Navy Blues.
Carlton have proven to be a profitable betting play as underdogs over the past 12 months and they have covered the line in ten of their past 18 games when receiving a start.
The Blues have the defensive toughness to trouble a North Melbourne outfit that can be a touch flakey mentally and they are good value to record an upset win at their current price of $2.85.
Back Carlton To Win @ $2.85
West Coast Eagles
Sunday 28 May, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 90 - GWS Giants 98
This is easily the match of the round in the AFL.
The West Coast Eagles produced another shocking performance in Melbourne to go down to Essendon, but they will still go into this clash with the Giants as clear favourites.
West Coast have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a narrow profit and they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.
Greater Western Sydney got themselves out of jail once again with a late goal against Richmond, but their slow starts are sure to catch up with them at some point.
The Giants have won two of their past three games that they have started as underdogs and they are 3-0 against the line when giving away a start.
West Coast are obviously very tough to beat in front of their home fans, but the Giants really do appeal at their current price and they are more than capable of beating the Eagles for the first time.
Back GWS Giants To Win @ $2.25
There are a number of games in round ten of the 2016 AFL season that involve teams that have struggled against their rivals in recent seasons.
The Brisbane Lions host Hawthorn on Saturday and are chasing their first home win against the Hawks for over a decade, while the Melbourne Demons have lost their past six game against Port Adelaide.
Carlton face Geelong on Sunday – a team they have struggled against since they beat them in the 1995 AFL Grand Final – and the Gold Coast Suns will have the chance to record their first ever win over West Coast.
Friday 27 May, 7:50pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 91 - North Melbourne 65
This is a rematch of a semifinal from last season, which the North Melbourne Kangaroos won before they lost to the West Coast Eagles in the preliminary final.
Sydney have generally had the upper hand against North Melbourne in recent years and have won 9 of the past 11 games played between the two sides, but they face a Kangaroos side that has made a flawless start to the season.
The market is confident that Sydney will be the team that can end North Melbourne’s winning streak and the Swans are 9-2 as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne have been an excellent betting team over the past 12 months and while they have won only two of their past five games as away underdogs, they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
I think that the market has not given North Melbourne the respect that they deserve heading into this fixture and I am keen to back the Kangaroos with a start of 18.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (+18.5 Points)
Saturday 28 May, 1:45pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 87 - Hawthorn 135
The Brisbane Lions have struggled badly against Hawthorn in recent seasons and it is tough to see that changing this weekend.
The Lions produced a somewhat improved performance against Melbourne last weekend, but they were still beaten by over ten goals and they face a very difficult assignment against the Hawks this weekend.
While the Lions have won just two of their past eight games as home underdogs they are actually 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
It has been a tough fortnight for Hawthorn, but there is very little doubt that they will be able to return to winning form this weekend.
They have won 11 of their past 14 games as away favourites and it has been a number of seasons since they lost back-to-back games, while they are 9-5 against the line as away favourites.
The Hawks will win this game, but the line of 50.5 points seems just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 28 May, 1:40pm, TIO Traeger Park
Melbourne 76 - Port Adelaide 121
Melbourne have a very poor record against Port Adelaide in recent seasons and they have lost the past six games played between the two sides, but they go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Demons have won four out of their past six fixtures, but their record as favourites in the past 12 months is still a very average 2-4 and they remain difficult to trust from a betting prospective.
Port Adelaide have lost two games on the trot, but they did produce an improved performance against the West Coast Eagles last weekend.
The Power are 2-5 as underdogs in the past 12 months, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario and have proven to be a profitable betting proposition as away underdogs.
Melbourne are 2-7 on the back of wins in the last season and I am willing to take them on this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.15
Saturday 28 May, 4:35pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 101 - Fremantle 67
The ‘Ross Lyon Cup’ takes an extra twist this year as St Kilda can inflict a tenth straight defeat on their former coach and the struggling Fremantle.
The Saints got the job done against Essendon last weekend and they will start this game as favourites as they aim for their first back-to-back wins for over a year.
St Kilda have only started three games as favourites in the past year, but they have won all three of these games and they have won three of their past four games against Fremantle in this situation.
The Dockers horrid season continued with a poor performance against Richmond last weekend and they have now won just one of their past 12 games as underdogs, while they are 4-8 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda may never have a better chance to record back-to-back wins and they should be able to do so comfortably this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (-21.5 Points)
Saturday 28 May, 7:25pm, MCG
Essendon 67 - Richmond 105
Richmond made a completely woeful start to the 2016 AFL season, but they turned it around with their thrilling win over Sydney and can make it three wins in a row against the Bombers this weekend.
The Tigers were far from impressive against Fremantle, but they were still able to get the job done and another trademan like performance will be enough to get them home over the Bombers.
Richmond have been only a middling 10-8 as favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line when giving away a start is a particularly poor 6-12.
Essendon were fairly uninspiring against St Kilda last weekend and they continue to struggle to string together quality performances in back-to-back weeks.
The Bombers have won just three of their 22 matches as underdogs and they are 10-12 against the line in this scenario.
I have been more than happy to stay out of Essendon games in recent weeks and I will be using that strategy again this weekend.
Saturday 28 May, 7:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide 107 - Greater Western Sydney Giants 85
This is arguably the most interesting game of the weekend and there is very little between the two teams in the current betting market.
Adelaide ended their two game losing streak with a big win over the Gold Coast Suns last weekend and they will go into this game as narrow favourites.
The Crows are 3-1 as home favourites in head to head betting this year, but they have not been a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.
Greater Western Sydney made it six wins in a row with a professional victory over the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they are now being spoken about as genuine top four contenders.
The issue for the Giants has been their form away from home and they have not won a single game as away underdogs in the past 12 months.
The Giants are due for a poor performance and they will need to be at their best to beat Adelaide this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.83
Sunday 29 May, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Carlton 104 - Geelong 85
Carlton’s winning run came to an end against North Melbourne last weekend and they face another tough assignment against Geelong.
The Blues were never able to get into the hunt against the Kangaroos and a similar performance could see them suffer a very big defeat at the hands of Geelong.
In saying that, Carlton have been a winning betting proposition as home underdogs in the past 12 months and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Geelong suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Collingwood last weekend and it will be very interesting to see how they bounce back from that effort.
The Cats are 3-1-3 as away favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this situation is a poor 2-5.
The Blues are being given a sizable start of 40.5 points and if they can bounce back to a semblance of their best form they have the chance to give the Cats a minor scare.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+40.5 Points)
Sunday 29 May, 3:20pm, MCG
Collingwood 53 - Western Bulldogs 74
Collingwood got their season back on track with their upset win over Geelong last weekend and they go into this clash with the Western Bulldogs as genuine winning chances.
The Magpies finally produced the type of football that they are capable of, but they will still start this game as underdogs despite the injury-depleted status of their rivals.
Collingwood are 4-8 as underdogs in the past 12 months for a narrow profit in head-to-head betting markets, while they are 8-4 against the line in this scenario.
Injuries may have finally caught up with the Western Bulldogs, but they still produced a credible performance against the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and they will take confidence from the fact that they have only lost back-to-back games just once in the past 12 months.
The Bulldogs have been one of the most reliable teams in the competition in the past 12 months and they have won 13 of their past 15 games as home favourites and beaten the line in ten of these fixtures.
This is is set to be a very interesting fixture, but the market seems to have got it just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
West Coast Eagles
Gold Coast Suns
Sunday 29 May, 2:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 132 - Gold Coast Suns 55
The West Coast Eagles are yet to lose a game to the Gold Coast Suns, but the two sides played out an exciting draw at Metricon Stadium last season.
A first win for the Suns against their rivals is not expected and West Coast are currently the shortest-priced favourites of the season to date.
This price is fair for many reasons – West Coast have won their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 11-1 against the line in this scenario, while the Gold Coast Suns have played some putrid football in recent weeks.
The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are an awful 2-7 against the line, but they are being given a huge start of 79.5 points.
Only 19 teams have been given such a big start in the AFL since 2012 and they all won, but only seven of the 19 covered and I can’t recommend taking on a line that large.
Recommended Bet: No Bet