2018 AFL Round 14 Preview

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail

If we learned anything from Round 13, it’s that even the biggest of blockbusters don’t always live up to the hype.

Fortunately Round 14 looks pretty low key with Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond, St. Kilda and Sydney all taking a seat this week. It does however, feature a six game slate that doesn’t look all that exciting on paper, but promises to hold some big finals implications in place.

Can the Hawks find themselves back in the eight? And can the Power make it three straight?

Plenty of questions, and as always, we hope our 2018 AFL Round 14 tips provide you with the answers!

West Coast Eagles Vs Essendon

Thursday 21 June, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium

Touched up by the Swans on the road, the Eagles look to return to not only winning ways, but the top of the ladder.

Richmond’s victory over Geelong last week saw the Tigers reclaim top spot on percentage, but West Coast will certainly fancy themselves against what has so far been a very disappointing Essendon outfit.

The Eagles weren’t exactly poor during their trip to Sydney, they just looked a little flat. Kicking just three goals to the Swans’ five in the first half, for the first time since Round 1 West Coast struggled to penetrate their opponents defence.

The attack certainly wasn’t helped out with goalless games from Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras, highlighting just how vulnerable these premiership favourites might be if they’re faced with the right defensive match ups.

Essendon, meanwhile, come in fresh from the bye, which probably bodes well ahead of a long trip to Perth. The Bombers resounding win over the Lions at The Gabba two weeks ago saw Jake Stringer boot three, an overdue performance from the Bombers’ big offseason signing.

For the first time in a long time, the Dons showed plenty of poise moving the ball forward inside fifty during that game, and we all know it will take more of the same if they are to really rock the Eagles at home.

Mind you, the last time the Bombers traveled to Perth to face the Eagles was in 2016, a game they lost by 82-points. In what’s been a pretty up/down, hot/cold, kinda season, it’s pretty hard to see this one being close.

Back West Coast By 40+ @ $2.38

Port Adelaide Vs Melbourne

Friday 22 June, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval

Has a week off done Melbourne any good?

Demons fans would want to hope so, because after Round 12’s horror show against the Pies, suddenly there’s a small cloud of doubt surrounding the red and the blue.

Another big game awaits this weekend, but a trip to Adelaide to face one of the most dangerous teams in the competition should stir this team up.

The Power had a pretty comfy win over the Bulldogs last week, piling on the points in the third quarter. They too will recognize the importance of this game, though, because despite Melbourne’s hiccup against the Pies, this is still a Demons side that leads the competition in goals and marks inside 50.

For Port to win this at home, it comes down to the midfield battle. How good was the trio of Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines and Jared Polec last week? Try a combined 84 disposals and three goals.

The Demons need to find a way to shut that down, and with fresher legs, Nathan Jones is the man for the job.

Funnily enough, the Demons 42-point loss to Collingwood came on the heels of a 49-point thumping over the Dogs in the previous round. Now the shoe is on Port’s foot after their triumph over the Bulldogs, and although they are at home, underestimating the Demons’ young talent could cost them.

Back Melbourne To Win @ $2.50

Hawthorn Vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday 23 June, 1:45pm, UTAS Stadium

Miserable Melbourne weather may have kept Hawthorn fans at bay during last week’s game against the Crows, but that sure didn’t stop the Hawks from showing up.

With finals on the line, Hawthorn turned a 27-23 lead at halftime into an 88-32 win come the final siren.

For years the Hawks have been a poor third quarter team, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday night. Alastair Clarkson’s boys booted seven to keep the Crows scoreless for the term, and following on from the Suns’ meltdown in the final two minutes against the Saints last week, this one could get very, very ugly.

Say what you will about Brisbane, Carlton and St. Kilda, but the Suns are on a whole ‘nother level of bad. How do you let a 31-point lead at three quarter time turn into a two-point loss? That’s just devastating for a club.

To make things even more dour, the Suns now travel to Tasmania to face a Hawthorn team looking to jump back in the eight. Like so many others, the Suns are yet to beat the Hawks down in Launceston, with their last visit resulting in a 26-point loss back in 2016.

The Hawks won’t be counting on a miraculous Cyril Rioli return anytime soon, but they’ll rest easy if James Sicily can kick three goals alongside Tom Mitchell’s 40 disposals once again.

Are Hawthorn back? One thing is for sure, a handy game against a lowly Gold Coast side couldn’t have come at a better time.

Back Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.80

Brisbane Lions Vs GWS

Saturday 23 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba

You have to rewind the clock right back to 2013 to find the Lions’ last win over the Giants at The Gabba, but with both teams returning from the bye, this one might shape up as game of the round.

A win on Saturday would place GWS right back in the hunt for finals, but this injury riddled side is certainly no guarantee week-to-week.

The Lions have put up a fight all season long, even if they don’t have the chocolates to show for it. Their loss against Essendon three weeks ago highlighted the promise that lies within this side, but sloppy, turnover ridden footy and an ability to make teams pay on the counter attack remains Brisbane’s biggest problem.

If the Lions were a more accurate shot at goal, there’s every chance they could hold one or two more wins to their name. Fortunately, they’ve played their best footy at The Gabba this season, and as we’ve seen in recent weeks, if Chris Fagan can light a fire underneath captain Dayne Zorko, the Lions look like a completely different team.

While the Giants head to Brisbane on a two-game winning streak, punters should keep in mind that both of those victories came against the Crows and the Suns, two teams moving backwards.

Brisbane’s win/loss record gives you nothing to cheer about, but this is the kind of game the Lions will feel like they can win against a depleted GWS outfit that has a tough run home from here on out.

Back Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+23.5 Points)

Western Bulldogs Vs North Melbourne

Saturday 23 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

It’s no fun travelling to Adelaide to face Port fresh off the bye, but what followed as a result was an even tougher pill to swallow.

Adding to their already alarming injury list, the Dogs have now lost Easton Wood for the season to a hamstring injury, while potential Brownlow Medal winner, Jackson Macrae, is set to miss a month with a low-grade strain.

It will take something big for the Bulldogs to make the finals from here, but the Kangaroos have been less than convincing in recent weeks. A big win over the Lions in Round 11 was expected, but falling by 37-points to the Cats, a team we all thought North could beat, certainly came out of the blue.

Fast forward to Round 14, and it’s hard to know what to make of these two sides. The Dogs have been ravaged by injuries – and truth be told, they might only win two more games the rest of this season.

Now sitting on the fringe of the Top 8, North Melbourne have everything to play for, and fortunately for them, they’ll meet this same Bulldogs side in seven weeks time.

If the Dogs were at full strength, you’d give them half a chance against this North lineup, but against Ben Brown alone, it’s hard to see them having the talent to put up a fight.

Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.14

Collingwood Vs Carlton

Sunday 24 June, 3:20pm, MCG

Carlton probably hit rock bottom back in Round 4, but last weekend’s effort against the Dockers was next level awful.

Trailing 77-7 at halftime, the Blues went on to lose by 57-points to Freo, an effort that can’t really be summed up with words.

On a more positive note, the Pies look serious. Jordan de Goey and Mason Cox come in with fresh legs following nearly two weeks off, a 13-day stretch that would have featured plenty of high spirits following the Magpies win over the Demons in Round 12.

There’s not much of a case to be made here for Carlton, because once again, Patrick Cripps was the only shining light out of what was otherwise a ghastly performance from the Blues last week.

Collingwood on the other hand, well they look on the up.

The story of Tom Phillips, the Pies’ newfound ball magnet in the midfield, only continues to grow, and the transformation from what looked to be a lost season for Mason Cox only adds further excitement to Collingwood’s potential finals campaign.

This one looks to be another ugly, blowout game.

Back Collingwood 40+ @ $1.55

2017

The bye rounds are now in the books and all 18 AFL sides will be in action this weekend.

The AFL continues to throw up surprises each and every weekend and the ladder is delicately placed – there is only four points separating 4th and 15th.

There are a tonne of interesting games in the AFL this weekend and there is intriguing betting plays in every single game.

We have analysed all nine fixtures and our complete AFL round 14 tips can be found below.

Adelaide Crows Vs Hawthorn

Thursday 22 June, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide Crows 82 - Hawthorn 96

The Adelaide Crows are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the AFL and they will go into this clash with Hawthorn as clear favourites.

Adelaide went into the bye on the back of a solid win over St Kilda and they remain very tough to beat in front of their home fans at the Adelaide Oval.

The Crows have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are an impressive 8-3 against the line in this scenario.

Hawthorn went into their bye on the back of an extremely poor effort against the Gold Coast Suns and scoring points continues to be an issue for the Hawks.

They have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are a very tough side to trust on their recent form.

There is no doubt that Adelaide are the team to beat in this clash, but there is no real value at their current price and the line of 47.5 points looks about right.

No Bet

Sydney Swans Vs Essendon

Friday 23 June, 7:50pm, SCG

Sydney Swans 86 - Essendon 85

The Sydney Swans have now won five of their past six games and they will go into this clash with Essendon as clear favourites.

Sydney showed plenty of character to come-from-behind against Richmond last weekend and it is hard not to be impressed with the way that they have played in recent weeks.

In saying that, Sydney have won only six of their past 13 games as home favourites for a big loss and they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

Essendon were nothing short of dominant against Port Adelaide before they went on the bye and they have played some outstanding football so far this season.

Winning away from Melbourne has proven to be a big issue for Essendon and they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-5 against the line in this situation.

This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I will be staying out from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Collingwood Vs Port Adelaide

Saturday 24 June, 1:45pm, MCG

Collingwood 62 - Port Adelaide 93

This is a crucial game for both these sides and one of the most interesting games of the weekend.

Port Adelaide returned to winning form against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

The Power have won four of their past five games as away favourites and they are an impressive 4-1 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood had their winning run ended by Melbourne in their Queen’s Birthday Public Holiday clash and their recent record against Port Adelaide has been very poor.

The Magpies have won only one of their past three games as home underdogs and they failed to beat the Power at the MCG last season.

Port Adelaide are a tough team to trust, but their record away from home can’t be ignored and they can cover what is a very small line.

Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)

 

Brisbane Lions Vs GWS Giants

Saturday 24 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba

Brisbane Lions 86 - GWS Giants 146

This is one of the biggest mismatches in the AFL this weekend and the GWS Giants are clear favourites to account for the Brisbane Lions.

Greater Western Sydney went into their bye on the back of a shock loss to Carlton and the Lions may be the big losers of this fact.

The Giants have won six of their past nine games as away favourites and more importantly they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.

Brisbane returned to winning form against Fremantle a fortnight ago and they were not disgraced against Port Adelaide last weekend.

The Lions have now won two of their past nine games as home underdogs, but their record against the line is an extremely poor 2-7.

Greater Western Sydney need to make a statement and they can do just that against the Lions this weekend.

Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-35.5 Points)

Western Bulldogs Vs North Melbourne

Saturday 24 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 107 - North Melbourne 106

The Western Bulldogs have lost four of their past five games and really need to return to winning form against North Melbourne this weekend.

The Bulldogs were completely played off the park for the second week in a row against Melbourne and there really are some worrying signs for the defending premiers.

They have won only ten of their past 15 games as home favourites and they are a shocking 3-12 against the line when giving away a start.

North Melbourne suffered their second straight loss when they went down to St Kilda last Friday night, but they were far from disgraced and they have won four of their past seven games.

The Kangaroos have won only two of their past 13 games as away underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line in this scenario.

The value in this clash really does lie in the Total Points betting market.

These two sides played out a low-scoring affair at this venue earlier this season and backing the Under in games at Etihad Stadium continues to be a profitable play.

Back Under 171.5 Points

West Coast Eagles Vs Melbourne

Saturday 24 June, 7:40pm, Domain Stadium

West Coast Eagles 96 - Melbourne 99

The West Coast Eagles returned to winning form against Geelong last Thursday night and they are clear favourites to make it two wins on the trot.

West Coast have now won eight of their past ten games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 5-5 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne produced one of their best performances of the season to date to beat the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they have now recorded three wins on the trot.

The Demons have lost their past nine games against the West Coast Eagles, but they have made a habit of ending these sorts of losing streaks over the past 12 months.

Melbourne have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

There is nowhere near as much between these two as the current betting market suggests and the Demons are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 14.5 points.

Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+14.5 Points)

Geelong Vs Fremantle

Sunday 25 June, 1:10pm, Simonds Stadium

Geelong 74 - Fremantle 72

Geelong are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend, but they continue to be tough to trust from a betting standpoint.

The Cats have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a loss and they are a very poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle went into the bye on the back of three straight losses and they were particularly poor against the Brisbane Lions.

The Dockers have won two of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no stronger.

Geelong go into this clash as deserving favourites, but it is impossible to get them as short as their current quote and this is another match that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Richmond Vs Carlton

Sunday 25 June, 3:20pm, MCG

Richmond 84 - Carlton 58

The roller-coaster season of the Richmond Football Club continued in emphatic fashion last weekend.

Richmond led from the start of their game against the Sydney Swans, but they fell apart when it really mattered and were resigned to yet another narrow defeat.

The Tigers will still go into this clash as clear favourites and they have won five of their past six games as the punter’s elect, while they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton made it two wins on the trot with another brave performance against the Gold Coast Suns and they really have shown plenty of fight in recent weeks.

The Blues have now won six of their past 13 games as underdogs for a clear profit and they are 12-7 against the line in this scenario.

Richmond were able to record a big win over Carlton in the opening game of the season, but there is no doubt that the Blues have improved since then and this is another game that the market has just about right.

No Bet

St Kilda Vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday 25 June, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda 103 - Gold Coast Suns 72

We finish round 14 of the 2017 AFL season with what should be a very interesting clash between St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns.

St Kilda ended their losing streak when they beat North Melbourne last weekend and they will start this clash with the Suns as clear favourites.

The Saints have won three of their past four games as home favourites, but they are only 1-3 against the line in this scenario.

Gold Coast continue to struggle for consistency and they would be thoroughly disappointed not to make it three wins on the trot when they met Carlton last Saturday night.

The Suns have lost their past seven games as away underdogs and they have been a losing play against the line in this scenario, but the line of 25.5 points does seem excessive for what should be a low-scoring clash.

There is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and the Saints are capable of beating the line with the healthy start.

Back Gold Coast To Beat The Line (+25.5 Points)


2016

This is the second split round of the 2016 AFL season and Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, West Coast Eagles, Sydney Swans, Essendon and Melbourne are all on the bye.

The round begins with an intriguing Thursday night showdown between the Adelaide Crows and North Melbourne before Collingwood host the Fremantle Dockers in Friday night football.

Saturday’s fixtures are headlined by the the 2009 AFL Grand Final rematch between St Kilda and Geelong  before Hawthorn take on the Gold Coast Suns in the only game on Sunday.

The round starts with an exciting Friday night fixture between North Melbourne and Hawthorn, while the clash between Fremantle and Port Adelaide as well as the Western Bulldogs and Geelong highlight an exciting set of games on Saturday night.

Adelaide Crows Vs North Melbourne

Thursday 23 June, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide Crows 100 - North Melbourne 67

Adelaide have had the edge over North Melbourne in recent seasons and have won four of the past five games played by the two sides.

Adelaide have flown under the radar somewhat in recent weeks, but they have been able to record four impressive wins in a row, highlighted by a big win over the West Coast Eagles, and they will start this game as clear favourites.

The Crows have been a fairly safe bet as home favourites and they have won four of their past five games in this situation, while they are 3-2 against the line.

North Melbourne have received somewhat of a reality check in the past fortnight and they head into this clash on the back of losses to both Geelong and Hawthorn.

Their loss against Hawthorn was overshadowed by the post-match comments of Brad Scott and that hid the fact that they were unable to secure victory, despite being given a number of chances to do so.

The Kangaroos have won only two of their past five games as away favourites, but they are 4-1 against the line in this situation and their overall record as underdogs is very good.

This is set to be a very interesting game, but the market has got this fixture just about right and there is no value in the current prices of either side.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Collingwood Vs Fremantle

Friday 24 June, 7:50pm, MCG

Collingwood 85 - Fremantle 37

This is far from a Friday Night Blockbuster, but it is still an interesting match from a betting perspective as there is very little between these two sides.

Collingwood have lost three games on the trot against the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, but they will still go into this clash a narrow favourites.

This has been a position that Collingwood have really struggled in in the past 12 months and they have won just two of their past six games as home favourites, while they are 1-5 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle have found winning form in the past month and they produced their best performance of the season to date against Port Adelaide last weekend.

They have won just one of their past ten games as an away favourite and they are 3-7 against the line in this scenario, but they are a team that is capable of stringing wins together and they are 7-4 on the back of a victory in the past 12 months.

It is tough to trust the Dockers, but you can’t knock the fact that they have played good football in recent weeks and they can continue their winning run this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Fremantle To Win @ $2

Richmond Vs Brisbane Lions

Saturday 25 June, 1:40pm, MCG

Richmond 117 - Brisbane Lions 75

Richmond have a simply outstanding record against the Brisbane Lions in recent times and they have won the past eight games played between the two sides.

The Tigers went into the bye weekend on the back of an unconvincing victory against the Gold Coast Suns, but they were still able to get the job done and they have won four out of their past five fixtures.

Richmond are set to start this game as very short-priced favourites and this has not been a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months – they have won just six of their ten matches in this scenario and their record against the line is a putrid 2-8.

While it is fair to say that Richmond have been very disappointing this season, the Brisbane Lions have been even worse and they suffered yet another heavy defeat at the hands of the West Coast Eagles last weekend.

The Lions have lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they have beaten the line in just one of these fixtures.

These are two teams that simply cannot be trusted from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this game.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

GWS Giants Vs Carlton

Saturday 25 June, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium

GWS Giants 127 - Carlton 65

Greater Western Sydney were given a real scare by Essendon last weekend, but they will still start this clash with Carlton as clear favourites.

The Giants produced an outstanding performance to beat the Sydney Swans a fortnight ago, but they clearly underestimated Essendon last weekend and almost paid what would have been a very heavy price.

Greater Western Sydney continue to be a profitable betting play at Spotless Stadium and they are 6-1 as home favourites in the past 12 months in both head to head and line betting markets.

Carlton went into the bye on the back off a very disappointing performance against St Kilda and how they respond from that defeat will prove very interesting.

The Blues have played well at times this season, but they have still only won two of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line is a middling 6-6.

The Giants will be keen to make a statement after their poor performance last weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 40.5 points comfortably.

Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-40.5 Points)

St Kilda Vs Geelong

Sunday 25 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

St Kilda 93 - Geelong 90

The Saints have struggled against the Cats in recent season and have not beaten their rivals since 2010, but the two sides drew in round 21 last season.

St Kilda have won three of their past four games and they were excellent against Carlton a fortnight ago, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.

This has not been a profitable position for St Kilda as they have won just two of their past ten matches as home underdogs and are a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.

Geelong have cemented themselves as premiership favourites in the back of three strong wins against Greater Western Sydney, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs and have clearly bounced back from their horror two week slump when they lost to both Collingwood and Carlton.

The Cats remain a non-profitable betting team as favourites and they have won just three of their past eight games as away favourites, while they are a poor 2-6 against the line in this situation.

Geelong have failed to cover the line in 12 of their past 19 games as favourites at Etihad Stadium, which means that I am happy to back St Kilda at the line with a start of 33.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+33.5 Points)

Hawthorn Vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday 25 June, 3:20pm, Aurora Stadium

24/06/2016 - Gold Coast 60

Hawthorn have won all seven meetings played between these two sides and that unbeaten runs looks likely to change this weekend.

Hawthorn made it four wins on the trot with a nail-biting victory over North Melbourne and they have now been a slightly profitable betting proposition as favourites in the past 12 months.

Their overall record against the line in that time period is 11-16, but they have covered the line in 11 of their past 18 games played at Aurora Stadium and they are 6-6 when giving away a start of over 54 points.

The Gold Coast produced an improved performance against Richmond last weekend, but they were unable to end their horror losing streak and they have won just one of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are 2-8 against the line in this situation.

A line of 54.5 points is really not that much for a firing Hawthorn side and they should be able to inflict a heavy defeat on the Suns in front of their Tasmanian fans.

Recommended Bet: Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (-54.5 Points)