The final bye round of the season gets underway this week with just five games to choose from.
Footy fans will be treated to a crucial battle between second and third on Friday night when the Cats host the Dogs from Geelong, while there’s also plenty on the line on Saturday between the Giants and Carlton from Sydney.
The Hawks were surprise winners against the Swans last week and there will be no love lost in Tassie on Sunday when they take on the Bombers in a Round 1 rematch.
For complete analysis on every game, read our 2021 AFL Round 14 Preview below!
Friday June 18, 7:50pm, GMHBA Stadium
We should get a good taste of what a finals meeting might be like between these two clubs on Friday night.
The Cats come in riding a five-game winning streak after downing Port with an impressive fourth-quarter performance last week, while the Dogs are fresh from the bye and looking to pick up their fourth win over a top-eight club.
The bookies are siding ever so slightly with Geelong, but with no crowd in attendance, it’s hard to say the Cats will have a distinct home-field advantage.
That said, the Dogs haven’t won in Geelong since 2003, and they won’t hold particularly fond memories of playing the Cats after losing by 11 when they met at Metricon last year.
Geelong’s season-defining win over Richmond five weeks ago clearly sparked something within the team and we saw that on full display last week when the going got tough against Port.
These two sides rank bottom two in goals allowed this year, so we should be in for a low-scoring game. But overall, the Cats have a slight edge head-to-head.
Tip: Back Geelong to Win & Under the Points Total
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 19, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
An early afternoon trip to the Gold Coast might be just what the doctor ordered for Ken Hinkley’s men.
The Power faded down the stretch last week against the red-hot Cats, but this does shape as the perfect bounce-back game for Port to move a step closer to rejoining the top four.
After recording back-to-back wins over Sydney and Collingwood, the Suns have cooled off significantly over the last month with four losses from their last five games.
To make matters worse, the Suns have lost 11 straight to the Power since they first met back in 2011 with the most recent meeting resulting in a 47-point Port Adelaide win.
The Suns have enough talent around the park to make a game of this, but the fact Port Adelaide has played to a perfect 7-0 record on the back of a loss over the last 12 months speaks for itself.
The fact the Power cooled off in the fourth term last week against the Cats is a slight worry, but they should feel good knowing the Suns rank second-last in fourth quarters won this season.
Tip: Back the Power to Win Both Halves @ $2.30
Saturday June 19, 4:35pm, Blundstone Arena
Brisbane’s seven-game winning streak came to an end a fortnight ago with a blown loss to the Demons, a result that will no doubt be the prime motivator against the hapless Kangaroos on Saturday.
The Lions will be hungry to cement their spot in the top four with Port, Sydney and West Coast all breathing down their neck, and they look a very safe bet to do so coming in fresh from the bye.
That said, Chris Fagan will need to ensure his side doesn’t take North lightly, much like the Giants did last week in their draw down in Hobart.
On paper, the Lions are clearly the more talented bunch, and the stats suggest they should have no problem scoring goals against a Roos outfit that is averaging 15 to opponents each game.
You’d be mad to back against the Lions head-to-head, but recent history does suggest North are a much better chance of keeping this game close than the current +33.5 line suggests.
The last four games between Brisbane and North have been decided by 20 points or less, while the Roos do have a slight advantage remaining in Tassie following last week’s game.
With rain also forecast right throughout the week, there’s a decent chance North keeps the scoreline respectable.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+33.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 19, 7:25pm, GIANTS Stadium
The Giants and the Blues played out a thriller when they met at Metricon last year and there should be plenty of feeling about Saturday’s game in Sydney.
As far as the finals are concerned, this is a must-win game for these two clubs with time quickly running out.
Currently sitting 10th, the Giants still find themselves six points off Richmond for a spot in the eight, and it’s fair to say last week’s lucky draw against North didn’t help matters.
Carlton, on the other hand, has even more work to do sitting 14th.
The Blues have won only one of their last five games, although there was a bit to like in back-to-back losses to Sydney and West Coast before the bye.
There’s no denying GWS has held Carlton’s number since they entered the competition though – evident in the fact the Blues have won only three of their previous 10 meetings.
In that time the Giants have posted a perfect 4-0 record as the home favourite, which includes a 3-1 record at the line.
The bye could see Carlton come out firing, but sometimes a week off is enough to create some rust.
With the Giants likely eager to prove a point following last week’s rough outing in Hobart, GWS looks a good bet to get one back.
Tip: Back the Giants 1-39 @ $2.25
Sunday June 20, 3:20pm, UTAS
This is hands down the toughest game to get a feel for this week.
The Bombers blew a six-goal half-time lead to the Hawks back in Round 1, a game the Dons will be eager to atone for as they still find themselves within reach of a top-eight spot coming off the bye.
Since then, Hawthorn has endured its fair share of tough losses, but they picked an ideal time to get a win on the board last week with a rousing performance against the Swans in Sydney.
On one hand, you could argue that the Hawks looked much improved coming off the bye, while on the other, you could chalk the result up to a vintage coaching performance from Alastair Clarkson.
Either way, the fact this game is being played in Tassie makes Hawthorn a worthwhile play at the line.
The Dons haven’t traveled to the Apple Isle since 1992, while the Hawks own an outstanding 50-1-15 record in Launceston since they first started playing there in 2001.
If the Hawks can move the ball with precision like they did last week and also see the same production from Tom Mitchell through the middle, they’ll prove very tough to beat again.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+11.5 Points) @ $1.90
Round 14 of the AFL season appears to be an absolute minefield for tipsters and punters alike.
A good old fashioned grudge match between the Hawks and Bombers opens Thursday’s doubleheader, followed by a top of the table clash between Richmond and West Coast that could turn the ladder on its head.
To make life even more difficult, the Dogs and the Cats meet on Friday night, followed by an evenly weighted battle between Melbourne and St Kilda as both clubs hope to bounce back on Saturday.
There is outstanding value on offer in just about every game and we’ve got you covered with (hopefully) nine winning tips in our 2020 AFL Round 14 Preview below.
Thursday August 27, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
The Hawks and the Bombers are set to write another chapter in their epic rivalry on Thursday afternoon when they meet at the Adelaide Oval.
The season is just about over for both of these clubs, which has set up a rather interesting market from a betting perspective.
Hawthorn were very brave last week on the same ground where they pushed top of the table Port Adelaide right to the brink.
The Hawks eventually succumbed to the Power’s pressure in the late stages, but head coach Alastair Clarkson has to be happy with the way some of his younger players stepped up in crucial moments.
Likewise, the Dons also gave the reigning premiers more than they bargained for in the Northern Territory.
The Bombers ran out of steam in their 12 point loss, but it was a nice to watch the Dons attack the game with some ferocity for a change.
Hawthorn has won three of their last five contests against Essendon, but the real trend worth paying attention to is the Over.
The last two games between these two sides have gone Over the Total Points Line, so on the back of a pair of close calls last week, we could be in for a high-scoring thriller.
Tip: Over 122.5 Total Points @ $1.87
West Coast Eagles
Thursday August 27, 7:10pm, Metricon
West Coast’s six-game run at Optus Stadium has finally come to an end as they now travel back over to Queensland to face the Tigers at Metricon on Thursday night.
To call this battle between fourth and fifth a blockbuster would be an understatement, particularly with the jury still out on West Coast’s premiership credentials following such a long stretch of games in Perth.
We should receive a firm answer this week as to who the Eagles truly are, but as the market suggests, it is hard to find confidence in West Coast based on the troubles they had in the Sunshine State to start the season.
To refresh your memory, Adam Simpson’s side lost three consecutive games to the Suns, Lions and Power between Rounds 2 and 5.
The Eagles bounced back with a couple of handy wins over the lowly Swans and Crows before returning home, a form line that doesn’t exactly read well with a game against the reigning premiers ahead.
Richmond, on the other hand, have now won back-to-back games after surviving a couple of scares against the Suns and Bombers in successive weeks.
The Tigers won by only a goal when these two sides last met, but unlike West Coast, Richmond’s record in Queensland speaks for itself.
Damien Hardwick’s side is a perfect 5-0 up north this year and they should feel pretty good about themselves knowing Bachar Houli is back in the side alongside Tom Lynch, who was lucky to avoid suspension.
It would be surprising if this game isn’t close, but with some good value straight-up, you have to like the Tigers to win outright.
Tip: Back Richmond to Win @ $1.75
Friday August 28, 7:50pm, Metricon
Two wins on the trot has earned the Dogs a spot back in the eight momentarily, but they are about to face a much tougher test on Friday against a Geelong side that is playing white hot footy.
The Cats have reeled off four wins in a row over North, St Kilda, Port Adelaide and the Crows, and if results go their way this week, they might just find themselves tied for the top spot on the ladder.
The Bulldogs have been very impressive in recent weeks scoring a combined 191 points against the Crows and Dees, but this shapes up as an entirely different test against a Geelong side that has allowed the second-fewest goals to opponents on average.
Funnily enough, the Bulldogs hold the wood over the Cats with two wins from their last three meetings and they might also have an added edge playing at Metricon.
The Dogs are 4-2 in their six games on the Gold Coast this year and also happen to hold a 3-2 record as the line underdog over the last 12 months.
Geelong should win this game, but it mightn’t be by much.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday August 29, 1:45pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley will be hoping for a much more thorough performance from his side this week after just scraping by against Hawthorn last Saturday night.
The Power still sit atop the table, but a loss could prove detrimental with the Lions equal on points and both Geelong and West Coast breathing down their neck.
Fortunately, Port face a very winnable game on Saturday against a Swans side that continues to ride the highs and lows.
A fortnight ago the Bloods walked away with a convincing win over GWS in the ‘Battle of the Bridge’, right before managing only two goals last week in a 31-point loss to Fremantle.
With that in mind, the Power need to ensure they don’t overlook the Swans ahead of a very comfortable run home.
Port face North Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood to close out the fixture, meaning they have a very good chance to finish on top of the table.
The Swans are 4-3 at the line following a previous loss, but they haven’t beaten the Power in Adelaide since 2015.
Of all the games, this one looks to be the easiest to pick.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $1.80
Saturday August 29, 4:35pm, Optus Stadium
There has been a lot to like about the Dockers this season and like the market suggests, there isn’t a whole lot separating these two sides on Saturday.
Fremantle pulled off another low-scoring win last week against the Swans – their third in their last four games.
GWS, meanwhile, find themselves in another must-win contest after losing their second straight game last week to West Coast.
A win for the Giants could almost vault them back inside the eight, but they do have some ground to make up with Melbourne and Carlton also tied on 24 points.
GWS has won only one from five against he Dockers in Perth, and based on the way they faded last week against the Eagles, it’s becoming clear that the Giants are struggling with the travel.
Toby Greene’s inclusion helps, but they might have their hands full again this week against a Dockers outfit that has allowed the fewest goals on average to opponents this year.
Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $2.00
Saturday August 29, 7:40pm, TIO Traeger Park
The Demons and the Saints both have similar goals in mind this week.
Melbourne and St Kilda were both on the receiving end of a loss in Round 13, a result that leaves both teams with some work to do ahead of the finals.
The Demons failed to kick a goal during the third quarter last week that ultimately cost them a win against the Bulldogs.
St Kilda, meanwhile, were their own worst enemy in front of goal against the Lions in a heartbreaking two-point loss.
The Saints have been a very consistent side on the back of a previous defeat going 4-1 straight-up and a perfect 5-0 at the line over the last 12 months.
Of the two sides, St Kilda are probably the easiest to trust, especially with three consecutive wins to their name over the Dees.
Tip: Back St Kilda to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $2.00
Sunday August 30, 3:35pm, Gabba
Carlton will be hoping to put their added rest to good use on Sunday when they tackle a Collingwood side still fighting for life inside the eight.
The Blues were enormous last week in the Northern Territory defeating the Suns in a comfortable 33-point rout, while Collingwood also enjoyed a fairly cruisy game against North Melbourne winning by 30 on Monday.
The injury riddled Pies could be a little vulnerable in this spot on short rest, but they do have a strong track record to suggest otherwise.
Collingwood has won four of its past five games against Carlton, all of which have come by double digits.
There is also a piece of history on the line for the Pies as a win would place them tied on 41 wins apiece with Carlton in 82 meetings since 1980.
This is definitely one of the toughest games to pick this week, largely due to how unpredictable both clubs have been this year.
To make matters even more complicated, Carlton faces GWS the following Thursday, while the Pies take on the Lions on Friday, so it’s difficult to know where both clubs’ minds might be at.
Tip: Under the Points Total
Gold Coast Suns
Sunday August 30, 6:10pm, Metricon
If nothing else, this should be a very fun game between 14th and 17th.
It would take a mathematical miracle for the Suns to make the eight from here, but they could boost their chances ever so slightly with a big win over North Melbourne on Sunday night.
Speaking of miracles, it would take something special for the Roos to wind up with the wooden spoon over the hapless Crows, but this is also a big opportunity for North to potentially earn maybe their final win of the season.
In terms of recent history, the Roos should feel pretty good about their chances in this game.
North have defeated the Suns by double digits in their last two meetings, but that still hasn’t been enough to sway the market in their favour.
This is obviously another very difficult game to try and predict, especially with both sides struggling for goals last week.
Perhaps the only trend you can hang your hat on is the fact the Suns have covered in three of their last four games as the line favourite, so there’s plenty to suggest they can bounce back.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $2.00
It’s bye time for the Crows, Blues, Suns, Giants, Roos and Tigers this week, setting up what can only be described as one of the most important rounds of the year.
On paper, all six games could go either way and with only four points separating sixth from 11th on the ladder, it’s safe to say a win could go a long way towards earning a finals spot.
Upsets are bound to happen this weekend, so don’t be afraid to tip boldly. Fortunately, we’ve done all the form and our complete 2019 AFL Round 14 tips can be found in our Preview below.
West Coast Eagles
Thursday June 20, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium
A 19-point win over bitter rivals Hawthorn last week has the Bombers back in the hunt for a spot inside the top eight.
John Worsfold’s side finds themselves with six wins and six losses to their name ahead of this week’s trip to Perth, and if they play anything like they did during last year’s 28-point win in Round 14, Essendon could be a huge upset chance.
The Eagles return home following last week’s bye week hoping to bounce back from their 45-point loss to the Swans a fortnight ago. West Coast has won five of its six home games this season, so it’s no surprise to see the Eagles listed as the heavy favourite.
The Bombers played convincingly last year during their trip out west, and although they stole the points against the Hawks last week, there are still a few concerns Worsfold needs to address.
For one, winning the inside 50’s this week will be crucial for either side. Both the Eagles and Bombers rank fourth and fifth respectively in average inside 50s allowed to opponents this year, but the difference is, West Coast has been brilliant at turning their entries into goals.
Despite last year’s win, the Bombers are 1-4 as the away underdog against the Eagles and just 1-2 against the line in the same scenario.
As for West Coast, the Eagles are 2-1 following a loss this year, but most importantly, six of their home games have been decided by 1-39 points over the last calendar year.
Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.00
Friday June 21, 7:50pm, SCG
To think, five years ago these two sides were playing in the Grand Final.
Hawthorn finds themselves fighting for life following their second consecutive loss to Essendon last week. Alastair Clarkson’s side had plenty of opportunities winning the inside 50 and disposal counts, but a lack of a key forward – and perhaps more importantly, accurate goal kicking – cost the Hawks in their 19-point loss.
The Swans return from the bye week having just polished off the reigning premiers a fortnight ago. Finals look highly unlikely from here, but at the very least, this is still a huge opportunity for the Swans to gain some bragging rights over a Hawthorn side that has won its last five trips to the SCG.
The Hawks will likely go without captain Ben Stratton following last week’s unsportsmanlike antics, bad news two weeks after Buddy Franklin booted five against West Coast. Hawthorn’s skills were also appalling last week as their inside 50 entries struggled to find the target.
With all that in mind, it’s tough to back the brown and gold. The Swans, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five against the Hawks, and it’s not like their 1-5 record as the line favourite at home over the last 12 months is any better.
The safest play this week might be the Quarter Time market. The Swans have been notoriously slow starters winning just five of their 12 first quarters all year, compared to the Hawks who are 7-4-1.
Tip: Quarter Time Betting: Hawks To Win @ $2.12
Saturday June 22, 1:45pm, MCG
Nobody gave Fremantle a chance at the start of the year, but suddenly the Dockers are locked and loaded for a spot in the finals.
Fremantle improved to sixth on the ladder last week thanks to their outstanding 21-point win over the Power at home. The Dockers were relentless in the fourth quarter holding Port goalless, while their efforts to win the contested footy didn’t go unnoticed.
The Dockers have won only two games on the road this year, the most recent of which came in controversial fashion against the Pies at the MCG in Round 11.
Even so, Fremantle has won three of its last five games against the Demons, and although Melbourne returns from the bye week well-rested, it’s hard to trust a side that’s won only one game at the ‘G all year.
The Dees continue to get everything right on the stat sheet, but when you lack a serious full forward, it counts for very little. Despite their success winning inside 50s, Melbourne also leads the league in goals allowed and rank second in tackles allowed to opponents.
Ross Lyon’s side is always a question mark in Melbourne, but everything about the Dockers looks legit this year. Fremantle is the best fourth-quarter side in the competition, and with a 6-3 record as the away underdog over the last calendar year, there’s some real value to be had on the Dockers.
Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 22, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium
There was nothing convincing about St. Kilda’s four-point win over the Suns last week.
The Saints trailed by three goals at half time, going on to clinch another thriller against the second-worst team in the competition.
Perhaps you could say the same about Brisbane, who return from the bye week hoping to make up for their shocking Round 12 loss to Carlton a fortnight ago. Brisbane were manhandled in the third quarter allowing the Blues to kick five goals – an area of concern for coach Chris Fagan as the Lions remain a question mark ahead of the finals.
Brisbane are always well supported when they travel to Marvel Stadium, but history is against them this week The Lions are winless in eight trips to face the Saints at Docklands, while on the flip side, the Saints are 4-2 on their home ground this season.
The Lions still find themselves as favourites this week on the road, a scenario they are 2-1 in over the last 12 months. St. Kilda, meanwhile, are 1-5 as the home underdog during the same time span, although their four-game winning streak against the Lions certainly stands out.
Brisbane has lost back-to-back games once already this year, but perhaps their one saving grace is goal kicking. The Lions rank fifth in average goals, compared to the Saints, who rank 15th.
This game should be close, but the Lions get the edge in a Saturday afternoon thriller.
Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.24
Saturday June 22, 7:10pm, Adelaide Oval
A 21-point loss to the Dockers in Perth last week was enough to knock Port Adelaide back outside the eight for the fourth time this season.
The Power returned from the bye with plenty to play for, only to watch Fremantle dominate the disposals, clearances and contested possession on the way to their sixth loss of the season.
Meanwhile, on top of the ladder, the Cats head south well-rested following last week’s bye, now hoping to add to their eight-game winning streak.
Geelong has won its last three trips to face the Power at Adelaide Oval, but there’s something to be said about this Port side on the back of a loss. The Power are 3-2 following a previous defeat, but on a more interesting note, the Cats are 0-7 dating back to 2012 following the bye.
There’s no doubt the Cats are the side to beat this year, but after a couple of close calls recently against the Suns and the Swans, the Power look good odds for an upset.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.65
Sunday June 23, 3:20pm, Marvel Stadium
The Bulldogs did their best to throw last week’s game away against the Blues, but in the end, a fortunate free-kick sealed a three-point win.
Collingwood now returns to the field following last week’s bye, a much-needed rest with the casualty ward beginning to pile up.
The Pies were classy in their 41-point win over the Dees a fortnight ago, and considering they already own a win over the Dogs this year, it’s no surprise to see Collingwood favoured by plenty on Sunday.
Neither coach will read too much into their Round 4 meeting, but the Pies can rest easy knowing they still managed to hold off the Dogs despite booting 12 behinds.
Luke Beveridge’s side has strung together two straight wins only twice this year, compared to the Pies who are 12-6 on the back of a win over the last 12 months. Those stats alone are enough to suggest a Collingwood victory, but when you consider the Dogs’ struggles in the fourth quarter, there’s no other way to approach this game.
Collingwood has been the third-best side in the competition in the final term, compared to the Dogs, who hold the worst fourth quarter record (3-9) on the season.
This should be nothing more than a Collingwood blowout, so back the Pies to Cover.
Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (-23.5 Points) @ $1.91
If we learned anything from Round 13, it’s that even the biggest of blockbusters don’t always live up to the hype.
Fortunately Round 14 looks pretty low key with Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond, St. Kilda and Sydney all taking a seat this week. It does however, feature a six game slate that doesn’t look all that exciting on paper, but promises to hold some big finals implications in place.
Can the Hawks find themselves back in the eight? And can the Power make it three straight?
Plenty of questions, and as always, we hope our 2018 AFL Round 14 tips provide you with the answers!
West Coast Eagles
Thursday 21 June, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium
Touched up by the Swans on the road, the Eagles look to return to not only winning ways, but the top of the ladder.
Richmond’s victory over Geelong last week saw the Tigers reclaim top spot on percentage, but West Coast will certainly fancy themselves against what has so far been a very disappointing Essendon outfit.
The Eagles weren’t exactly poor during their trip to Sydney, they just looked a little flat. Kicking just three goals to the Swans’ five in the first half, for the first time since Round 1 West Coast struggled to penetrate their opponents defence.
The attack certainly wasn’t helped out with goalless games from Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras, highlighting just how vulnerable these premiership favourites might be if they’re faced with the right defensive match ups.
Essendon, meanwhile, come in fresh from the bye, which probably bodes well ahead of a long trip to Perth. The Bombers resounding win over the Lions at The Gabba two weeks ago saw Jake Stringer boot three, an overdue performance from the Bombers’ big offseason signing.
For the first time in a long time, the Dons showed plenty of poise moving the ball forward inside fifty during that game, and we all know it will take more of the same if they are to really rock the Eagles at home.
Mind you, the last time the Bombers traveled to Perth to face the Eagles was in 2016, a game they lost by 82-points. In what’s been a pretty up/down, hot/cold, kinda season, it’s pretty hard to see this one being close.
Back West Coast By 40+ @ $2.38
Friday 22 June, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval
Has a week off done Melbourne any good?
Demons fans would want to hope so, because after Round 12’s horror show against the Pies, suddenly there’s a small cloud of doubt surrounding the red and the blue.
Another big game awaits this weekend, but a trip to Adelaide to face one of the most dangerous teams in the competition should stir this team up.
The Power had a pretty comfy win over the Bulldogs last week, piling on the points in the third quarter. They too will recognize the importance of this game, though, because despite Melbourne’s hiccup against the Pies, this is still a Demons side that leads the competition in goals and marks inside 50.
For Port to win this at home, it comes down to the midfield battle. How good was the trio of Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines and Jared Polec last week? Try a combined 84 disposals and three goals.
The Demons need to find a way to shut that down, and with fresher legs, Nathan Jones is the man for the job.
Funnily enough, the Demons 42-point loss to Collingwood came on the heels of a 49-point thumping over the Dogs in the previous round. Now the shoe is on Port’s foot after their triumph over the Bulldogs, and although they are at home, underestimating the Demons’ young talent could cost them.
Back Melbourne To Win @ $2.50
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 23 June, 1:45pm, UTAS Stadium
Miserable Melbourne weather may have kept Hawthorn fans at bay during last week’s game against the Crows, but that sure didn’t stop the Hawks from showing up.
With finals on the line, Hawthorn turned a 27-23 lead at halftime into an 88-32 win come the final siren.
For years the Hawks have been a poor third quarter team, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday night. Alastair Clarkson’s boys booted seven to keep the Crows scoreless for the term, and following on from the Suns’ meltdown in the final two minutes against the Saints last week, this one could get very, very ugly.
Say what you will about Brisbane, Carlton and St. Kilda, but the Suns are on a whole ‘nother level of bad. How do you let a 31-point lead at three quarter time turn into a two-point loss? That’s just devastating for a club.
To make things even more dour, the Suns now travel to Tasmania to face a Hawthorn team looking to jump back in the eight. Like so many others, the Suns are yet to beat the Hawks down in Launceston, with their last visit resulting in a 26-point loss back in 2016.
The Hawks won’t be counting on a miraculous Cyril Rioli return anytime soon, but they’ll rest easy if James Sicily can kick three goals alongside Tom Mitchell’s 40 disposals once again.
Are Hawthorn back? One thing is for sure, a handy game against a lowly Gold Coast side couldn’t have come at a better time.
Back Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.80
Saturday 23 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba
You have to rewind the clock right back to 2013 to find the Lions’ last win over the Giants at The Gabba, but with both teams returning from the bye, this one might shape up as game of the round.
A win on Saturday would place GWS right back in the hunt for finals, but this injury riddled side is certainly no guarantee week-to-week.
The Lions have put up a fight all season long, even if they don’t have the chocolates to show for it. Their loss against Essendon three weeks ago highlighted the promise that lies within this side, but sloppy, turnover ridden footy and an ability to make teams pay on the counter attack remains Brisbane’s biggest problem.
If the Lions were a more accurate shot at goal, there’s every chance they could hold one or two more wins to their name. Fortunately, they’ve played their best footy at The Gabba this season, and as we’ve seen in recent weeks, if Chris Fagan can light a fire underneath captain Dayne Zorko, the Lions look like a completely different team.
While the Giants head to Brisbane on a two-game winning streak, punters should keep in mind that both of those victories came against the Crows and the Suns, two teams moving backwards.
Brisbane’s win/loss record gives you nothing to cheer about, but this is the kind of game the Lions will feel like they can win against a depleted GWS outfit that has a tough run home from here on out.
Back Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+23.5 Points)
Saturday 23 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
It’s no fun travelling to Adelaide to face Port fresh off the bye, but what followed as a result was an even tougher pill to swallow.
Adding to their already alarming injury list, the Dogs have now lost Easton Wood for the season to a hamstring injury, while potential Brownlow Medal winner, Jackson Macrae, is set to miss a month with a low-grade strain.
It will take something big for the Bulldogs to make the finals from here, but the Kangaroos have been less than convincing in recent weeks. A big win over the Lions in Round 11 was expected, but falling by 37-points to the Cats, a team we all thought North could beat, certainly came out of the blue.
Fast forward to Round 14, and it’s hard to know what to make of these two sides. The Dogs have been ravaged by injuries – and truth be told, they might only win two more games the rest of this season.
Now sitting on the fringe of the Top 8, North Melbourne have everything to play for, and fortunately for them, they’ll meet this same Bulldogs side in seven weeks time.
If the Dogs were at full strength, you’d give them half a chance against this North lineup, but against Ben Brown alone, it’s hard to see them having the talent to put up a fight.
Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.14
Sunday 24 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Carlton probably hit rock bottom back in Round 4, but last weekend’s effort against the Dockers was next level awful.
Trailing 77-7 at halftime, the Blues went on to lose by 57-points to Freo, an effort that can’t really be summed up with words.
On a more positive note, the Pies look serious. Jordan de Goey and Mason Cox come in with fresh legs following nearly two weeks off, a 13-day stretch that would have featured plenty of high spirits following the Magpies win over the Demons in Round 12.
There’s not much of a case to be made here for Carlton, because once again, Patrick Cripps was the only shining light out of what was otherwise a ghastly performance from the Blues last week.
Collingwood on the other hand, well they look on the up.
The story of Tom Phillips, the Pies’ newfound ball magnet in the midfield, only continues to grow, and the transformation from what looked to be a lost season for Mason Cox only adds further excitement to Collingwood’s potential finals campaign.
This one looks to be another ugly, blowout game.
Back Collingwood 40+ @ $1.55
The bye rounds are now in the books and all 18 AFL sides will be in action this weekend.
The AFL continues to throw up surprises each and every weekend and the ladder is delicately placed – there is only four points separating 4th and 15th.
There are a tonne of interesting games in the AFL this weekend and there is intriguing betting plays in every single game.
We have analysed all nine fixtures and our complete AFL round 14 tips can be found below.
Thursday 22 June, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 82 - Hawthorn 96
The Adelaide Crows are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the AFL and they will go into this clash with Hawthorn as clear favourites.
Adelaide went into the bye on the back of a solid win over St Kilda and they remain very tough to beat in front of their home fans at the Adelaide Oval.
The Crows have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are an impressive 8-3 against the line in this scenario.
Hawthorn went into their bye on the back of an extremely poor effort against the Gold Coast Suns and scoring points continues to be an issue for the Hawks.
They have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a profit, but they are a very tough side to trust on their recent form.
There is no doubt that Adelaide are the team to beat in this clash, but there is no real value at their current price and the line of 47.5 points looks about right.
Friday 23 June, 7:50pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 86 - Essendon 85
The Sydney Swans have now won five of their past six games and they will go into this clash with Essendon as clear favourites.
Sydney showed plenty of character to come-from-behind against Richmond last weekend and it is hard not to be impressed with the way that they have played in recent weeks.
In saying that, Sydney have won only six of their past 13 games as home favourites for a big loss and they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon were nothing short of dominant against Port Adelaide before they went on the bye and they have played some outstanding football so far this season.
Winning away from Melbourne has proven to be a big issue for Essendon and they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-5 against the line in this situation.
This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I will be staying out from a betting standpoint.
Saturday 24 June, 1:45pm, MCG
Collingwood 62 - Port Adelaide 93
This is a crucial game for both these sides and one of the most interesting games of the weekend.
Port Adelaide returned to winning form against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Power have won four of their past five games as away favourites and they are an impressive 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood had their winning run ended by Melbourne in their Queen’s Birthday Public Holiday clash and their recent record against Port Adelaide has been very poor.
The Magpies have won only one of their past three games as home underdogs and they failed to beat the Power at the MCG last season.
Port Adelaide are a tough team to trust, but their record away from home can’t be ignored and they can cover what is a very small line.
Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)
Saturday 24 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 86 - GWS Giants 146
This is one of the biggest mismatches in the AFL this weekend and the GWS Giants are clear favourites to account for the Brisbane Lions.
Greater Western Sydney went into their bye on the back of a shock loss to Carlton and the Lions may be the big losers of this fact.
The Giants have won six of their past nine games as away favourites and more importantly they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane returned to winning form against Fremantle a fortnight ago and they were not disgraced against Port Adelaide last weekend.
The Lions have now won two of their past nine games as home underdogs, but their record against the line is an extremely poor 2-7.
Greater Western Sydney need to make a statement and they can do just that against the Lions this weekend.
Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-35.5 Points)
Saturday 24 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 107 - North Melbourne 106
The Western Bulldogs have lost four of their past five games and really need to return to winning form against North Melbourne this weekend.
The Bulldogs were completely played off the park for the second week in a row against Melbourne and there really are some worrying signs for the defending premiers.
They have won only ten of their past 15 games as home favourites and they are a shocking 3-12 against the line when giving away a start.
North Melbourne suffered their second straight loss when they went down to St Kilda last Friday night, but they were far from disgraced and they have won four of their past seven games.
The Kangaroos have won only two of their past 13 games as away underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line in this scenario.
The value in this clash really does lie in the Total Points betting market.
These two sides played out a low-scoring affair at this venue earlier this season and backing the Under in games at Etihad Stadium continues to be a profitable play.
Back Under 171.5 Points
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 24 June, 7:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 96 - Melbourne 99
The West Coast Eagles returned to winning form against Geelong last Thursday night and they are clear favourites to make it two wins on the trot.
West Coast have now won eight of their past ten games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne produced one of their best performances of the season to date to beat the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they have now recorded three wins on the trot.
The Demons have lost their past nine games against the West Coast Eagles, but they have made a habit of ending these sorts of losing streaks over the past 12 months.
Melbourne have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
There is nowhere near as much between these two as the current betting market suggests and the Demons are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 14.5 points.
Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+14.5 Points)
Sunday 25 June, 1:10pm, Simonds Stadium
Geelong 74 - Fremantle 72
Geelong are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend, but they continue to be tough to trust from a betting standpoint.
The Cats have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a loss and they are a very poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle went into the bye on the back of three straight losses and they were particularly poor against the Brisbane Lions.
The Dockers have won two of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no stronger.
Geelong go into this clash as deserving favourites, but it is impossible to get them as short as their current quote and this is another match that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
Sunday 25 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Richmond 84 - Carlton 58
The roller-coaster season of the Richmond Football Club continued in emphatic fashion last weekend.
Richmond led from the start of their game against the Sydney Swans, but they fell apart when it really mattered and were resigned to yet another narrow defeat.
The Tigers will still go into this clash as clear favourites and they have won five of their past six games as the punter’s elect, while they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton made it two wins on the trot with another brave performance against the Gold Coast Suns and they really have shown plenty of fight in recent weeks.
The Blues have now won six of their past 13 games as underdogs for a clear profit and they are 12-7 against the line in this scenario.
Richmond were able to record a big win over Carlton in the opening game of the season, but there is no doubt that the Blues have improved since then and this is another game that the market has just about right.
Gold Coast Suns
Sunday 25 June, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 103 - Gold Coast Suns 72
We finish round 14 of the 2017 AFL season with what should be a very interesting clash between St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns.
St Kilda ended their losing streak when they beat North Melbourne last weekend and they will start this clash with the Suns as clear favourites.
The Saints have won three of their past four games as home favourites, but they are only 1-3 against the line in this scenario.
Gold Coast continue to struggle for consistency and they would be thoroughly disappointed not to make it three wins on the trot when they met Carlton last Saturday night.
The Suns have lost their past seven games as away underdogs and they have been a losing play against the line in this scenario, but the line of 25.5 points does seem excessive for what should be a low-scoring clash.
There is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and the Saints are capable of beating the line with the healthy start.
Back Gold Coast To Beat The Line (+25.5 Points)
This is the second split round of the 2016 AFL season and Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, West Coast Eagles, Sydney Swans, Essendon and Melbourne are all on the bye.
The round begins with an intriguing Thursday night showdown between the Adelaide Crows and North Melbourne before Collingwood host the Fremantle Dockers in Friday night football.
Saturday’s fixtures are headlined by the the 2009 AFL Grand Final rematch between St Kilda and Geelong before Hawthorn take on the Gold Coast Suns in the only game on Sunday.
The round starts with an exciting Friday night fixture between North Melbourne and Hawthorn, while the clash between Fremantle and Port Adelaide as well as the Western Bulldogs and Geelong highlight an exciting set of games on Saturday night.
Thursday 23 June, 7:20pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 100 - North Melbourne 67
Adelaide have had the edge over North Melbourne in recent seasons and have won four of the past five games played by the two sides.
Adelaide have flown under the radar somewhat in recent weeks, but they have been able to record four impressive wins in a row, highlighted by a big win over the West Coast Eagles, and they will start this game as clear favourites.
The Crows have been a fairly safe bet as home favourites and they have won four of their past five games in this situation, while they are 3-2 against the line.
North Melbourne have received somewhat of a reality check in the past fortnight and they head into this clash on the back of losses to both Geelong and Hawthorn.
Their loss against Hawthorn was overshadowed by the post-match comments of Brad Scott and that hid the fact that they were unable to secure victory, despite being given a number of chances to do so.
The Kangaroos have won only two of their past five games as away favourites, but they are 4-1 against the line in this situation and their overall record as underdogs is very good.
This is set to be a very interesting game, but the market has got this fixture just about right and there is no value in the current prices of either side.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Friday 24 June, 7:50pm, MCG
Collingwood 85 - Fremantle 37
This is far from a Friday Night Blockbuster, but it is still an interesting match from a betting perspective as there is very little between these two sides.
Collingwood have lost three games on the trot against the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, but they will still go into this clash a narrow favourites.
This has been a position that Collingwood have really struggled in in the past 12 months and they have won just two of their past six games as home favourites, while they are 1-5 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle have found winning form in the past month and they produced their best performance of the season to date against Port Adelaide last weekend.
They have won just one of their past ten games as an away favourite and they are 3-7 against the line in this scenario, but they are a team that is capable of stringing wins together and they are 7-4 on the back of a victory in the past 12 months.
It is tough to trust the Dockers, but you can’t knock the fact that they have played good football in recent weeks and they can continue their winning run this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Fremantle To Win @ $2
Saturday 25 June, 1:40pm, MCG
Richmond 117 - Brisbane Lions 75
Richmond have a simply outstanding record against the Brisbane Lions in recent times and they have won the past eight games played between the two sides.
The Tigers went into the bye weekend on the back of an unconvincing victory against the Gold Coast Suns, but they were still able to get the job done and they have won four out of their past five fixtures.
Richmond are set to start this game as very short-priced favourites and this has not been a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months – they have won just six of their ten matches in this scenario and their record against the line is a putrid 2-8.
While it is fair to say that Richmond have been very disappointing this season, the Brisbane Lions have been even worse and they suffered yet another heavy defeat at the hands of the West Coast Eagles last weekend.
The Lions have lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they have beaten the line in just one of these fixtures.
These are two teams that simply cannot be trusted from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this game.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 25 June, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS Giants 127 - Carlton 65
Greater Western Sydney were given a real scare by Essendon last weekend, but they will still start this clash with Carlton as clear favourites.
The Giants produced an outstanding performance to beat the Sydney Swans a fortnight ago, but they clearly underestimated Essendon last weekend and almost paid what would have been a very heavy price.
Greater Western Sydney continue to be a profitable betting play at Spotless Stadium and they are 6-1 as home favourites in the past 12 months in both head to head and line betting markets.
Carlton went into the bye on the back off a very disappointing performance against St Kilda and how they respond from that defeat will prove very interesting.
The Blues have played well at times this season, but they have still only won two of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line is a middling 6-6.
The Giants will be keen to make a statement after their poor performance last weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 40.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-40.5 Points)
Sunday 25 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 93 - Geelong 90
The Saints have struggled against the Cats in recent season and have not beaten their rivals since 2010, but the two sides drew in round 21 last season.
St Kilda have won three of their past four games and they were excellent against Carlton a fortnight ago, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.
This has not been a profitable position for St Kilda as they have won just two of their past ten matches as home underdogs and are a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Geelong have cemented themselves as premiership favourites in the back of three strong wins against Greater Western Sydney, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs and have clearly bounced back from their horror two week slump when they lost to both Collingwood and Carlton.
The Cats remain a non-profitable betting team as favourites and they have won just three of their past eight games as away favourites, while they are a poor 2-6 against the line in this situation.
Geelong have failed to cover the line in 12 of their past 19 games as favourites at Etihad Stadium, which means that I am happy to back St Kilda at the line with a start of 33.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+33.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Sunday 25 June, 3:20pm, Aurora Stadium
24/06/2016 - Gold Coast 60
Hawthorn have won all seven meetings played between these two sides and that unbeaten runs looks likely to change this weekend.
Hawthorn made it four wins on the trot with a nail-biting victory over North Melbourne and they have now been a slightly profitable betting proposition as favourites in the past 12 months.
Their overall record against the line in that time period is 11-16, but they have covered the line in 11 of their past 18 games played at Aurora Stadium and they are 6-6 when giving away a start of over 54 points.
The Gold Coast produced an improved performance against Richmond last weekend, but they were unable to end their horror losing streak and they have won just one of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are 2-8 against the line in this situation.
A line of 54.5 points is really not that much for a firing Hawthorn side and they should be able to inflict a heavy defeat on the Suns in front of their Tasmanian fans.
Recommended Bet: Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (-54.5 Points)