With six premiership points separating Brisbane (2nd) and Fremantle (9th) on the ladder, the run to finals hits another gear this weekend.
We’ve run the rule over every game and delivered our best bets.
After a couple weeks of disappointing prime time clashes, the AFL has outdone itself with the 12th-placed Carlton taking on the red-hot Brisbane at Marvel Stadium.
With three losses on the trot and a coach under a mountain of pressure, the Blues have no immediate welcome relief with Adam Saad (concussion), Sam Walsh (foot) and Harry McKay (knee) remaining sidelined.
On the other hand, the Lions continued their upward trajectory with a comfortable 28-point victory over Port Adelaide.
Oscar McInerney comes into the frame to replace Darcy Fort given the five-day turnaround, and it should only add to the pain the Blues are about to feel on the big stage again.
Tip: Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.10
We’ve asked it before, and we’ll ask it again; can anybody stop the Pies?
The flag favourites will travel to People First Stadium on Friday night to try and make it 15 wins from their last 16 matches.
Things are only looking up as well, with Steele Sidebottom set to return after missing last week due to illness and Bobby Hill a chance to be recalled after missing for personal reasons.
The Suns have seemingly got over the mid-season bump that has plagued them since inception, with consecutive wins over Melbourne and Essendon over the past two weeks.
Star ruckman Jarrod Witts is a lock to return for Friday night’s blockbuster as the Suns try to snap a three-game losing streak against sides currently in the top eight.
Tip: Brody Mihocek (Collingwood) 2+ Goals @ $1.96
1:20pm games on a Saturday have never looked as good as the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows.
The Dogs, who are currently $1.60 with Ladbrokes, could usurp the Crows into the top four if they are victorious, having worked their way to sixth on the back of four-straight wins.
The Crows will need to find a replacement for in-form forward Josh Rachele (knee) while simultaneously crossing their fingers hoping for a return before finals.
The home team has covered the line in eight of the last nine matches between these two sides, but it’s a different looking Crows outfit this time around.
Tip: Adelaide Crows (+8.5) @ $1.90
Can GWS’ giant winning streak against the Cats continue? See what we did there?
Because the Giants have been on fire against Geelong in recent seasons, having won their past four matches at Kardinia Park since their last meeting at ENGIE Stadium.
They enter this week’s game with their chests out and shoulders back following a 111-52 thumping of the Eagles in Perth and will only improve their line-up with the addition of Jesse Hogan and Lachie Whitfield.
The Cats will be keen to improve their poor record against the Orange Team and should get Brownlow fancy Bailey Smith back to help their cause.
Jeremy Cameron has kicked 4+ goals in six of Geelong’s last seven matches and likely holds the key to this one.
Tip: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) 3+ Goals @ $1.80
The Bombers will look to end a run of five consecutive losses when they meet Richmond at the MCG on Saturday night.
Despite their 115-74 loss to Gold Cast last weekend, the Bombers’ coaching staff saw sense in returning Zach Merrett to the midfield, where he recorded 40 disposals and 12 clearances.
As for the Tigers, they suffered a 72-point loss to Geelong and made it an average of 65.8 point for their last four losses.
$1.40 seems reasonable for the Bombers and it’s something we’ll be jumping into against a Tigers side limping to the finish line.
Tip: Essendon To Win @ $1.40
One of the games of the round, the Dockers are chasing a return to the top eight when they host Hawthorn at Optus Stadium.
After losing for the first time in seven outings against the Swans, the Dockers will likely welcome Sam Switkowski back into their forward 50 after he injured his hamstring while in form.
The Hawks, who sit outside the four on percentage only, found themselves having to dig deep in their 20-point win over the Saints, something we haven’t seen too much of this year.
Caleb Serong was mauled by James Jordan and held to a season-low 11 disposals, meaning he’ll want to prove he can handle a tag and lead the Purple Haze into a finals spot.
Tip: Caleb Serong (Fremantle) 30+ Disposals @ $1.90
From one of the games of the round to a battle between 14th and 16th, there might be more people on the ground than in the stands when the Dees host the Kangaroos at the ‘G on Sunday afternoon.
Alas, we’re here to find a tip and we’re in the mood for an upset.
The Kangaroos may have suffered a 49-point loss to the Dogs in the end, but let’s not forget scores were basically even halfway through the third term.
The Dees are looking down the barrel of a sixth-straight loss if they can’t find a way against the Roos, making the $4.20 available for Clarko’s men a very enticing prospect.
Tip: North Melbourne To Win @ $4.20
Another case of so close yet so far for Ross Lyon and his Saints as they try to look past their 20-point loss to the Hawks and secure their sixth win of the year against a resurgent Sydney side.
Mattaes Phillipou (plantaris) and Jimmy Webster (calf) will miss after suffering injuries last week, but Zaine Cordy could put his hand up after recovering from a torn pec.
The Swans are down but not out in their quest for finals, keeping the dream alive with an 11-point win over Fremantle.
While still three games out of the eight and needing seven straight wins to have a chance, the Swans should like their chances with an in-form Callum Mills, Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney leading the charge.
Tip: Sydney Swans To Win 1-24 @ $3.20
Port Adelaide will be on the hunt for their eighth win of the season when they clash with West Coast at Adelaide Oval on Sunday evening.
The Power didn’t spark in their trip to the Gabba last weekend and went down to the Lions by 28 points.
It was, however, a more impressive showing the Eagles, who went down to the Giants by 59 on home soil.
West Coast has lost each of its last nine matches at the Adelaide Oval and we don’t see them snapping that streak on Sunday.
Tip: Under 167.5 @ $1.88
2024
The margin for error gets ever so slightly smaller as we take another step closer to September action.
The Pies and Cats kick off the round with a massive eight-point game, the Dockers battle the Hawks in their Tasmanian fortress, the Dogs look to keep their season alive, and the Bombers look to prove they can make a statement yet again.
We’ve previewed all of it, giving our best tips ahead of a massive AFL Round 18.
Collingwood has a point to prove that they can be dynamic in their ability to change things under pressure.
Their task will be enhanced against a Geelong side that will look to punish the Pies on transition, where they’ve been hurt the most in recent weeks.
With that being said, the Cats have been no better, and have fixed their problems slightly in the last two weeks against Essendon and Hawthorn.
So undeniably, the winner of this game will dominate in offensive output, which would be in favour of the Cats now.
The loss of Brodie Mihocek leaves a significant gap in the Pies forward line firepower, and the already lack of key forward figures makes the offensive system a difficult task.
Defensively the Pies were smashed when the Bombers lowered their eyes and sourced a different target each time, and the Cats should look to prioritise that.
It’s still hard to see how the Pies shut down Jeremy Cameron if he gets going, which adds that extra bit of chaos to the Pies defensive structure.
The most potent area the Pies can get the upper hand in is the midfield, and hurting the Cats with spread and pressure at the contest will naturally get them more possession.
Defence needs to become a priority for Collingwood, or they’ll fall into the same category the Cats were stuck in for a while, which seemingly they’ve fixed, proving it gets results.
A loss really makes life difficult for the Pies with their run home.
Tip: Geelong to win by 1-39 @ $2.30
Two losses on the trot for the Swans, who have started to show a few cracks, but to have lost your three games by a total of eight points isn’t really much of a worrying sign.
The Kangas took their opportunity against the Suns last weekend and showed how exciting they can be with a bit of pace and explosiveness with their ball movement.
A difficult task awaits them at the SCG, where without a doubt the Swans will want to reassert themselves as clear premiership favourites.
The speed off halfback the Swans possess is unstoppable at times, and defensive setups can easily be caught wanting without commitment to running patterns in defensive transition.
It’s hard to see the Kangaroos having the talent to stop that for four quarters, but it’s a contest that gives them a great opportunity to test out their capabilities.
It’s been a tough few weeks for Logan McDonald, but this match presents as a good opportunity to return to full confidence.
Sydney’s goal efficiency is second in the competition, and it should be on full display on Saturday afternoon.
Tip: Swans to win and Harry Sheezel Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.09
The Hawks were reminded they’re still on the rebuild in 2024, going down to the Cats by 51 points last week, but another opportunity presents this week to show they’re still capable of taking it up to the best.
Freo is finding some good form, comfortably taking care of the Tigers, but this is a danger game the Dockers simply must win.
Stoppage dominance is Freo’s superpower in the competition this year, leading the league in stoppage clearances, often giving themselves first hands on the footy.
The Hawks are still undefeated in Tasmania this year and have a great understanding of how to play the ground and grind out tough wins.
Uncontested and controlled footy has seen them win both games at UTAS by five and six points respectively, and the uncontested approach is also where the Dockers will look to break down the Hawks.
Contested areas will separate the two sides, and it’s one of the most balanced matchups in that respect.
Fremantle’s defensive lockdowns have been super impressive over the past few weeks, and even with Hawthorn’s offensive flair they possess, they should be able to keep Hawthorn below a score of 70.
This should be one of the best games of the round, and an upset is certainly well on the table, but the Dockers should continue on with their strong form.
Tip: Fremantle to win by 1-24 @ $3.25
The Dogs have yet again gone back to their inconsistent, uncompetitive nature with a smashing at the hands of Port Adelaide last week.
When it feels like things are back on track, it suddenly derails, and if this week wasn’t hard enough as it is, they’re coming up against a Blues side who need to make a statement themselves.
The Dogs had their poorest showing offensively last week, struggling to make any impact up forward, going at 35.7% inside 50 efficiency.
Losing Aaron Naughton this week makes things a lot more difficult, placing a lot more reliance on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy to carry the load for the talls.
Carlton proved that a lack of pressure is a direct doorway to beating them, bringing it early and dominating, but quickly losing it with no answer.
Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have given the Dogs quite a challenge in recent outings, and Charlie’s poor performance against the Giants will leave him wanting more this week.
The midfield battle promises to be exciting, and often the Blues have had the upper hand in games gone past, although the Dogs like to punish in transition.
The small forwards can make the difference for the Dogs, and as proven by the Giants, the midfielders scoreboard contribution also helps.
It feels like the Dogs have to play out of their skin similar to the Freo game to get it done, but they’re such a hard team to predict.
Questions to start being asked of the Blues if they’re to drop this one.
Tip: Carlton to win by 1-39 and Harry McKay to kick 2+ goals @ $3.14
Losing Izak Rankine for four weeks probably wasn’t on the top of the Crows bucketlist last week, and it’s a big loss heading back home to face the Saints.
Beating the top team would have given the Saints a world of confidence heading into this clash, and unsurprisingly, it’s amazing what offensive football can do for results.
The Crows most recent performance at the Adelaide Oval was convincing from start to finish against the Giants, and they seemed to find that hometown swagger they lost.
St Kilda make their second trip over to Adelaide for the season, their first, a 10-point loss to Port, which was pretty reflective of how close they were most of the game.
Fast breaks in transition is how both teams should aim to play, and with nothing to lose, there’s no reason this shouldn’t be high-scoring and adventurous.
The Saints were broken down by Sydney’s spread and speed out of defensive 50 but were able to hurt the Swans by lowering their eyes and changing angles.
At home the Crows play a big metres gained, territory type game style that hurts you quite quickly if the opposition isn’t willing to run in defence.
The Crows should get up in this one with the home-ground advantage, but this could be quite close.
Tip: Adelaide to win by 1-39 and Mattaes Phillipou to have 20+ disposals @ $3.01
Finals credentials took a big step last week as the Bombers got a big scalp in the Magpies, although how big it was might change if Collingwood continues their form.
Nonetheless, it was impressive and the statement they needed, so the question is, can they back it up against another finals contender?
They certainly can, but the Dees are still super dangerous, and whilst form has been up and down, we can’t deny they have premiership talent across the shop that can still hurt you.
Melbourne had won the last three clashes against Essendon until Gather Round last year, where Essendon were dominant from start to finish, proving they could take it up to the Dees.
Essendon’s biggest letdown at times is their inability to execute the fundamentals in defensive transition, turning it over way too easily and allowing repeat entries back inside 50.
Melbourne looked sizzling against the Eagles, which isn’t a lot to harp on about, but there was no sign of struggle in their execution.
The lesson the Dees can take from Collingwood is to shut down the Bombers ease through the corridor and force them long and deep inside 50.
Essendon shared it around with 11 different goal scorers which proved hard to handle, and for Melbourne, they were punishing when they were dynamic in their forward half.
This game has the possibility to be quite open and free-flowing, and weather permitting, it could see a similar 2019 result with a final score of 112-130.
Essendon has been outdone by class this year, and whilst they should be in this for four quarters, the Dees have experienced talent that can capitalise on key moments.
Tip: Melbourne to win by 1-24 @ $3.80
In typical Gold Coast fashion, they were just the Suns as they travelled down to Melbourne to lose another interstate game for the year.
But quickly considering the venue, they’re dangerous favourites against the Power, who looked to regain some momentum last week against the Dogs.
Mitch Georgiades has been in hot form for the Power, coming off a five-goal performance last week, the main shutdown target for the Suns.
Port Adelaide struggles to impact in the contested areas of their game, which is where the Suns excel up North, able to take advantage in the humidity.
The ways the Suns open up their forward line in offensive transition creates a lot of defensive chaos, which the Power have been quite poor at over the last month of football.
If the Power can establish some stoppage dominance with the firepower in the midfield, they’ll need to put scoreboard pressure on early to have a decent shot at winning.
Up in the Sunshine State, it’s hard to see the Power making a hard-hitting statement, but if they bring the form of their most recent performance, they’ll certainly give themselves a crack.
Tip: Gold Coast to cover the line (-8.5) and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2+ goals @ $3.79
The Giants reestablished themselves as a genuine contender in 2024 with a statement come from behind win against the Blues last week.
Another four points seem right on the horizon, with a much easier task against the Tigers at the MCG, their first visit there this year.
It was midfield pressure and intensity that lifted the Giants after a slow start, and the way they opened up the ground was filled with energy to hit the scoreboard in a flurry.
Richmond is now placed last on the ladder, and their season is now set up with the dilemma of how much they want to win versus how much they want the number one pick.
A lack of draft class in recent years has been evident this year, with no sustainable depth to remain competitive in the competition.
Whilst the Tigers can turn it on for spurts, they’re quite easily overrun with a bit of pace and switch of play in transition.
There’s a big task for Noah Balta to shut down Jesse Hogan in his hot form, but the problems only grow from there with the Giants plethora of options offensively.
Tip: Giants to win by 1-39 and Jesse Hogan to kick 2+ Goals
Brisbane continued their hunt for a finals spot in their midseason resurgence with a win against the Crows last week.
They now make the long trip over to WA, facing the Eagles at Optus for the first time since its opening, and the first time in Perth since 2017 after six consecutive trips to the Gabba for the Eagles.
West Coast haven’t looked too flash hot in the recent month of footy, struggling to rekindle the energy they had around the midway point of the year.
Brisbane has been dominant around the stoppages and their ability to get first hands on the footy through the likes of Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage certainly makes the task easier to move the footy with control.
The Eagles have struggled to move the ball inside 50, sitting second last in the competition for inside 50s, and need to find a way to be more creative in transition.
Holding the Lions accountable defensively will allow them to play with some flair and freedom, and back at home, they’re able to elevate their game to the next level.
Shutting down Brisbane’s forward line will be a hard task for the Eagles, and it’s hard to see them reducing the Lions to a defendable score.
It will be a challenge for the Lions with the travel, but class should rise to the top and get them a valuable four points.
Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.15
2023
Less than two months remain between now and finals, setting up another huge round with serious top-eight implications.
The Dogs can remain in the eight with a slight upset over the Swans on Thursday night in Sydney, while Friday’s clash shapes as a tell-all game between Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions.
The top four is in sight for the Bombers on Saturday, but they’ll need to bring their best on the road against the Cats in Geelong.
It’s another tricky round to pick, but we’re confident we’ve found a few winners in our Round 18 Preview!
There’s still a mathematical chance, but one win from their last five games makes finals close to impossible for the Swans.
A Thursday night clash against the Dogs marks another tough assignment, Luke Beveridge’s side looking to remain in the eight coming off an honourable loss to Premiership favourites Collingwood last week.
Wayward goal-kicking and some leaky defence were common themes again last week, but the Dogs should feel confident against a Swans team that has struggled for accuracy in front of the sticks themselves.
Winning the hit-outs has been a real struggle for Sydney this year, but this could be a hotly contested game with both sides ranking top three in tackles.
Tip: Under 164.5 Total Points @ $1.88
A pivotal clash at the ‘G awaits on Friday between 3rd and 4th.
Another top four finish is in sight for the Dees, but fans and critics would like to see them prove something on the big stage following another low-scoring win over St Kilda last week.
To their credit, Melbourne knocked off Collingwood just over a month ago in thrilling fashion, but we’re yet to see the Dees really put their foot down and win well this year.
This is undoubtedly a ‘prove it’ game for the home side, the Lions running out 11-point winners at the Gabba when they met back in Round 2.
Likewise, Brisbane will also be out to prove themselves worthy of a spot in the Premiership conversation.
The Lions have put together four wins on the trot, but after kicking 16 goals and 20 behinds in last week’s blowout over West Coast, discipline and accuracy in front of goal were likely the focus during training this week.
Brisbane’s horror record at the MCG only makes betting on this game more complicated, although it’s worth remembering last year’s emphatic finals win over the Dees to advance to the Semi’s.
Statistically, the Dees can match Brisbane in the clearances and hit-outs department, but where this matchup gets interesting is up forward.
Both sides have been among the top five best at getting the ball inside 50, but not surprisingly, the Lions’ talent has made the most of their opportunities, currently leading the league in points-per-game.
This is a game Brisbane simply must win if we are to take them seriously, and with the Dees seemingly only just ticking along, they look the more convincing pick with some value on offer.
Tip: Back the Lions to Win @ $2.05
Fremantle are really building a case for the most disappointing club in season 2023.
A second straight loss to Carlton was a new low point for a club that played finals last year, a defeat that also highlighted some of the glaring coaching problems facing Justin Longmuir during this uphill battle.
The Dockers need a miracle if they are to climb back into the finals picture, but it’s hard to see them pulling off any kind of upset away from home against Premiership favourites Collingwood.
Aside from their woeful record in the first quarter, the Dockers have struggled to play attacking footy this year – failing to move the ball forward despite being the best team when it comes to hitouts this year.
Any hesitation will cost the Dockers massively against the Pies, a team that thrives on winning the contested footy, slicing through the midfield, and hitting one of their various targets inside 50.
With only two wins away from home this year and some serious problems starting to creep into their game, it’s hard to entertain a Freo upset.
Tip: Back Collingwood to Win & Under 160.5 Total Points @ $2.02
The Suns will be looking to shift the focus back to winning footy on Saturday following the shock midweek sacking of Stuart Dew.
Gold Coast was far from disgraced in a 33-point loss to Port Adelaide last week, but with the club suffering another midseason lull, the board made the difficult decision to move on before finals are completely out of the picture.
Sitting 13th, making the eight isn’t entirely out of the question, but the Suns face a tough run home starting this week against a Saints side that has given them all kinds of problems.
St Kilda has won seven of its last eight games against the Gold Coast by 1-39 points, but at the same time, it’s equally difficult to feel confident in the Saints following last week’s loss to Melbourne.
As has been the theme all year, it feels as though the Saints are happy to kick low scores and hang around in games, relying entirely on their defensive first strategy – one that hasn’t been all that sound of late.
Even worse, Max King’s season is now over following a hit to the shoulder last week, depleting the Saints’ already thin forward line even further.
For whatever reason, players tend to respond well following a coach sacking, so it’s no surprise to find the Gold Coast favoured in the market.
There’s no doubt the playing group may feel they let their long-time coach down, and although they lacked the legs to go with Port last week, there were still encouraging signs with the Suns winning the clearances and the hit-outs.
Tip: Back the Suns 1-39 @ $2.10
Three weeks can make a big difference in footy.
The Blues are right back in the hunt for a finals berth on the back of a hat-trick of wins, dismantling Fremantle last week in aggressive, high-scoring fashion.
If Carlton wins out, they’ll be almost guaranteed a spot in the eight, but things are about to get real in a hurry against a Port Adelaide side shooting for its 14th straight win.
The Power haven’t been putting teams away by a big margin, but they’ve been a tough team to pin down for four quarters due to their work around the clearances and their ability to get the ball into the forward half of the ground.
Port has been the third-highest scoring team in the competition so far, which does put the pressure on Carlton given their problems in front of goal.
Unlike most inter-state clubs, Port has also been fantastic away from home, losing only once way back in Round 2 against Collingwood.
There’s a certain sense of belief starting to stir at Princes Park, but with the Power proving themselves as one of the most dominant fourth-quarter teams in the league, they might just sneak home in another tight one.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20
There will be a finals-like feel in the air on Saturday in old Geelong town.
The Cats are back in the eight following last week’s percentage boosting win over North Melbourne, while the Bombers are suddenly in the top four conversation after knocking off the Crows in upset fashion.
Kardinia Park has been a bogey ground for the Bombers dating right back to the 90s, but there’s been plenty to like about Essendon’s slick brand of footy and ball movement in recent weeks.
The switch to Zach Merrett as captain has worked wonders for the Dons, not to mention Peter Wright’s terrific form up forward since returning from injury.
The Cats still have a lengthy injury list, but there’s a chance Jeremy Cameron could return this week if he passes concussion protocol.
Even so, Geelong is the rightful favourite given the home ground advantage, but the Dons do represent good value at the line if they can stick to the game plan that has been working so well.
Brad Scott’s young list has done a terrific job putting pressure on opposing defences, moving the ball in fast fashion with a strong system down back to compliment.
Over the last calendar year, the Bombers have gone 9-5 at the line as the underdog, and if they can rely on some big performances from their core leaders in Merrett, Nic Martin, and Matt Guelfi, they could at least keep this close.
Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+20.5 Points) @ $1.90
Good luck getting a read on the Adelaide Crows anytime soon.
Just when it looked like Matthew Nicks’ side was destined to play finals, they cough up another disheartening loss on the road, this time to a Bombers outfit they really should have beaten.
Alongside the obvious – giving up 81 points – Adelaide was smashed in the possession count and gashed in their back half by an inferior Bombers forward line, a worrying loss with a backlog of teams still vying for a spot in the eight.
One win from eight away trips makes for grim reading, but it does make this week’s return home to the Oval all the more interesting.
Both South Australian teams have been close to unbeatable on home turf this year, evident in the fact the home side has covered in eight straight games now.
The Giants do pose a challenge given their handball efficiency and ability to get the ball inside 50 though, two areas that saw them prevail against the Hawks last week in a tough slog.
Not to be forgotten, GWS is also well and truly in the hunt for the eight.
Tied on points, Adam Kingsley’s side sits 10th behind Adelaide on the ladder, and given the form of both Tom Green and Toby Greene this season, this game has all the makings of a scrappy fight.
Tip: Either Team to Win By Less Than 24.5 Points @ $1.95
West Coast looks to have the wooden spoon wrapped up at this point, but this could still prove a crucial clash between 16th and 17th on the ladder.
The Hawks have struggled massively down back in James Sicily’s absence, but they should take plenty away from a 13-point loss to the Giants last week that saw the dominate the stoppages by a clear margin.
North, on the other hand, continues to spiral.
The Roos have lacked direction since Alastair Clarkson stepped away, and it feels like the club has a few tough decisions to make on a handful of key players like Jack Ziebell.
Effort was severely lacking at times last week in a 62-point loss to the Cats, and although Nick Larkey might kick a bag against Hawthorn’s shaky back line, it’s fair to say the Hawks might enjoy their own fill-up in front of goal.
Next to West Coast, the Roos have been one of the easiest teams to score against, which does spell disaster with Fergus Greene and Mitch Lewis in strong goal-kicking form.
The Hawks have won three in a row against North, although it’s worth noting the Kangaroos have covered in seven straight games under the roof at Marvel.
With that in mind, Hawthorn winning a close game looks the likely outcome.
Tip: Back the Hawks 1-39 @ $2.15
Four wins from their last five games has left the Tigers firmly in control of their own destiny.
Andrew McQualter has done a terrific job since Damien Hardwick stepped down, and although they have some ground to make up, the Tigers are very much in the finals picture with seven games left to play.
A trip to Perth for a potential percentage-boosting win can only help matters, not that Tiger fans need any reminding.
The yellow and black prevailed by 46 points when they faced QWest Coast back in Round 8, Dion Prestia and Shai Bolton enjoing three goals each alongside a massive 32 touches from Jacob Hopper.
Like it has been all year, the Eagles are virtually a ‘bye’ for any club in the finals hunt, and given they’ve lost 13 of their last 14 by 40+ points, betting on this game isn’t worth overcomplicating.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-40.5 Points) @ $1.90
2022
Only six weeks remain on the home and away fixture, meaning time is fast running out for those stuck inside the top-eight logjam.
Finals aspirations are again on the line on Friday night between the Dogs and the Saints at Marvel, while Saturday’s slate is headlined by a potential finals preview between the Blues and the Cats at the MCG.
The Dockers and the Swans follow not long after in a crucial top-eight clash, followed by the Suns and the Dockers late on Sunday afternoon.
We’re officially in the thick of things, and we’re confident we’re on to a few winners in our AFL Round 18 Preview below!
Top eight hopes are on the line again on Friday night in another do-or-die game for the Dogs and Saints.
Only a day after extending Brett Ratten’s contract through to the end of 2024, the Saints coughed up another disheartening 41-point loss to flag fancies Fremantle last week at Marvel.
Likewise, the Dogs were equally full of disappointment in their blowout loss to the Swans.
Luke Beveridge’s side simply failed to turn up on Friday night at the SCG, a performance that featured plenty of wayward kicking and some core defensive breakdowns.
Looking ahead, it’s no surprise to find almost even money on offer between two of the toughest clubs to get a read on all season.
Form wise, the Dogs have played to a steady 7-5 record over the last 12 months following a loss, but the Saints have also gone 6-4 at the line during the same time span.
Statistically, the Bulldogs are a much higher scoring team than St Kilda, but where they’ve come undone for most of the season is down back.
The Dogs rank seventh in the league in average goals allowed, evident in recent weeks after giving up 17 to the Swans, 16 to the Lions, and 16 to a lowly GWS side.
The Saints have had problems scoring themselves, but their defensive outfit has been much more reliable down back.
This game will likely boil down to which team can handle the pressure of a must-win game more effectively, but if the Saints can start on time and rely on Max King kicking a bag, they look a good bet at decent value.
Tip: Back the Saints to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $2.00
The Pies can move one step closer to playing September footy on Saturday when they take on the Crows in Adelaide.
It wasn’t pretty, but Craig McRae’s side managed to pull out all the stops last week to erase a 26-point deficit over spoon favourites North Melbourne.
Nobody is expecting the Pies to win the flag this year, but for a club that finished second-last on the ladder only 12 months ago, it’s fair to say this has been one of the most impressive season-to-season turnarounds in the game’s history.
Ask any coach, however, and they’ll tell you the home/away season is a marathon, not a sprint, and nobody will be stressing that more than McRae over these final six weeks.
For as good as Collingwood’s pressure was in the final term last week, they’ve now suffered three close calls in as many weeks against GWS, Gold Coast, and North.
Many are beginning to wonder if a loss is due, and even though the Crows have been plucky at times, it’s hard to imagine Adelaide beating a top-eight side, or maybe even winning another game this year.
The Crows were blown out of the water very early last week against Hawthorn as key forward Mitch Lewis enjoyed plenty of the footy early, while Adelaide’s own scoring has dried up with two straight games of under 65 points.
Adelaide disposed of North Melbourne rather easily just three weeks ago, but they’ve also struggled to defend imposing forwards – something that doesn’t bode well against the likes of Brody Mihocek and potentially, Jordan deGoey.
To make matters worse, the Crows have lost five in a row to Collingwood dating back to 2018, making any kind of Adelaide upset a tough sell.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.10
Two wins from their last five games has left the spotlight firmly fixed on the Lions this week.
Brisbane had genuine excuses last Sunday with names like Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko, and Harris Andrews missing against the Bombers, but at the same time, more experienced players like Charlie Cameron and Hugh McCluggage failed to turn up for a game the Lions really should have won.
The top four is now in serious doubt, and no one is feeling the pressure more than Chris Fagan.
An altercation with a reporter post-match was very out of character for the Lions’ front man, while on the field, it’s become apparently clear that Brisbane is lacking the fight and toughness that has seen them remain in the top-half of the ladder over the last few seasons.
A game against lowly GWS might be just what the doctor ordered, particularly away from the pressures of playing at home.
On one hand, the Lions are likely to be missing some more key names with COVID sweeping through the club, but providing Cameron, Joe Daniher, and Lincoln McCarthy bounce back up forward, Brisbane should have no problem scoring against a Giants team that has averaged nearly 13 goals against this season.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90
It’s been a difficult week for those on Arden Street, and things aren’t about to get any easier with a game against Richmond ahead on Saturday.
The timing of David Noble’s axing came as a surprise on Tuesday, particularly on the back of a spirited game against Collingwood last Sunday.
The path ahead of North Melbourne is murky at best, and although some teams respond well on the back of a coach getting fired, it’s hard to know exactly how the player group feels about the decision at this early stage.
Richmond, on the other hand, have their own agenda after losing on the siren last week to the Suns.
The razor-tight race for a spot in the eight looks set to go right down to the wire, and the Tigers certainly didn’t help their cause with a missed goal, a sloppy penalty, and a dropped mark in the dying stages in the leadup to Noah Anderson’s game-winner.
Fortunately, the Tigers have been an exceptional bet on the back of a loss, covering in seven of their last nine games.
The absence of Dusty and Tom Lynch could make this a little more complicated than it needs to be, but with North in tatters and the Tigers looking to make a huge statement, Richmond should win by plenty.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-40.5 Points) @ $1.90
This might be the most highly anticipated game between the Blues and Geelong since the 1995 Grand Final.
The Cats sent the rest of the competition a statement last week with a defiant home win over reigning premiers Melbourne, a performance that showcased just how organized and deadly they can be with their ball movement.
Carlton has also returned to form of late with two wins from their last three games, including a handy little percentage booster last week over the Eagles in Perth.
Historically, the Blues have won back-to-back games over the Cats, but that hardly counts for much given how much these two sides have improved this year.
Geelong has come undone on the MCG stage on more than one occasion, but overall, it’s fair to say whichever team can win the battle up forward will likely go a long way to prevailing on the scoreboard.
Statistically, the Cats look to have the advantage averaging a couple more scoring shots and more inside 50s in comparison to the Blues, while the way they carved up Melbourne through the midfield last week was impressive to say the least.
Overall, this should be a cracking game of footy that hopefully lives up to the billing, but with Carlton struggling to defend the likes of Tom Lynch and Max King in recent weeks, don’t be surprised if Tom Hawkins and/or Jeremy Cameron leave their mark.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.75
Eight points separate the Dockers from the Swans ahead of Saturday’s crucial game between 3rd and 7th in Perth.
The Dockers made it back-to-back wins last week by a comfortable margin over the Saints, and with the Lions in real danger of slipping outside the top four, this looks a huge opportunity for Fremantle to solidify their spot.
Likewise, the Swans have plenty at stake with Richmond and the Saints hot on their heels.
Sydney obliterated the Bulldogs at home last week, but their recent road form has been shaky at best.
The Swans lost by plenty to the Power in Adelaide just over a month ago, while they were also on the receiving end of a nine-point loss to the Bombers at the MCG a fortnight ago.
Making matters worse, Fremantle skipper Nat Fyfe has suddenly rediscovered some of his best form, while Andrew Brayshaw has leapt into Brownlow favouritism on the back of his 20th straight game of 25+ disposals last week.
The midfield battle will be crucial in this one, but if Fyfe can push forward and leave his mark on the scoreboard again, it’s going to be tough for any team to beat the Dockers.
Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Hawks have a chance to make it back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 2 on Sunday against West Coast.
Hawthorn made short work of the Crows rather early last week at Marvel, largely thanks to a huge five-goal bag from Mitch Lewis.
The Hawks’ ball movement inside 50 was a promising sign of things to come, while they also kept turnovers to a minimum in what was arguably one of their best performances of the season.
West Coast, meanwhile, suffered a blowout defeat at home to the Blues, a game that was basically over before it even began.
The Eagles failed to register a single point in the opening term as Carlton leapt out to a cruisy five-goal lead. That, plus the fact West Coast has been one of the easiest teams to score against all year, suggests this could be another comfortable win for Hawthorn.
Historically, West Coast has won four of its last five over the Hawks, but the fact this game is being played at the MCG certainly works in Hawthorn’s favour.
If Sam Mitchell’s side can pick up where they left off last week and continue to play aggressive footy, they’ll be hard to beat.
Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (-24.5 Points) @ $2.00
The Dees relinquished top spot on the ladder last week with a loss to Geelong, but they might be able to make up ground with a clean sweep over Port on Sunday.
Melbourne prevailed by a comfortable 32 points when these two sides met at the Adelaide Oval in Round 4, a game that saw Bayley Fritsch kick three goals.
Port’s form has turned around immensely since then however, particularly in recent weeks with three wins from their last four games.
The Power dominated the Giants last week from start to finish, holding them to just three goals, and while a spot in the eight still looks unlikely, there’s definitely enough time for Port to still sneak in.
Betting wise, the Power have a very profitable bet in the underdog role, covering in six of their last nine games, as well in each of their last two against Melbourne at the MCG.
Stats wise, these two sides line up rather nicely, although the Dees do look to have a serious edge when it comes to scoring and generating inside 50 entries.
That said, the Power have been a sneaky good defensive team this year, holding opponents to the third-fewest goals in the competition.
Not to be outdone, the Dees remain the toughest team to score against in the competition, which ties in nicely with one final key stat: the last seven games between these two sides have all gone Under the Total.
Tip: Under 155.5 Total Points @ $1.88
The round comes to a close at Marvel on Sunday afternoon with an intriguing clash between the top-eight hopeful Suns, and a Bombers team looking to make it a clean sweep over Queensland.
Gold Coast’s miraculous win last week will go down in club folklore, but it was also extremely important as far as the top-eight is concerned.
Another loss would have all but put a line through the Suns’ season, but instead, Noah Anderson’s goal after the siren has left them right in the thick of things with the Saints, Dogs, and Power.
The Bombers have little to play for at this point, but they can build towards next season with their fourth win from their last five games.
Peter Wright helped Essendon to a much-needed win over the Lions last week at the Gabba, and it’s fair to say the Dons’ pressure and overall structure has been significantly better over the last month.
In terms of betting, this is a hard one to get a feel for.
It’s difficult to read too much into a win over the wounded Lions, while the Suns’ opening half against Richmond last week left a lot to be desired.
Looking back, two of the last three games between these two sides have been decided by 10 points or less, including a famous 73-73 draw back in the shortened 2020 season.
Given neither side seems capable of playing out four quarters, sitting on the fence might just be your best bet.
Tip: Either Team to Win By Less Than 24.5 Points @ $1.80
2021
Round 17 threw up plenty of upsets as things start to heat up toward the business end of the season.
Spots inside the top four as well as top eight are up for grabs with plenty of important games taking place across the weekend and we are in store for a cracking round of football.
Our full 2021 Round 18 Preview with our thoughts and betting plays can be found below.
The Cats just keep ticking along and while others faltered in Round 17, Geelong had a comfortable 26 point win over Carlton on Saturday afternoon.
Jeremy Cameron was not available and Tom Hawkins was held goalless, but the Cats found other avenues to score through.
Zach Touhy was the only multiple goal scorer for the Cats, with two on the day.
Fremantle has also been the beneficiary of other teams dropping points around them and now sit inside the top eight heading into Round 18 with dreams of playing finals football edging closer to reality.
The Dockers thumped the Hawks by 62 points in Tasmania and head home to Perth having gained a fair amount of confidence, albeit against a team that has lost just four games for the year.
The Cats remain a very tough team to score against and they should be able to do enough to overcome an improving Fremantle outfit.
Tip: Back Geelong -11.5 @ $2.00
The defending premiers find themselves in 12th position after dropping their last four and all signs point toward their season ending in August.
It’s not only the defeats that are a huge issue for Richmond but also the quality of opposition they have been beaten by with eighth placed West Coast the highest ranked team.
All is not lost for Richmond however because they sit just four points out of the top eight but they would need to drastically improve their form when they take on the Brisbane Lions this Friday night.
Brisbane have been the form team of the competition in the middle part of the season but they didn’t help their chances of securing a home Qualifying Final when they were beaten by St Kilda last weekend.
A season ending knee injury to the very underrated Eric Hipwood will require some restructuring but this is exactly why Joe Daniher was brought into the team.
He is the only player in the competition to have kicked at least one goal in every game this year and he is going to be very important for the Lions going forward now.
You would hope Richmond would get up for Jack Reiwoldt’s 300th but you couldn’t back the Tigers with any confidence at the moment.
Tip: Back Lions -12.5 @ $2.00
Cross town rivals GWS and Sydney will do battle in Ballarat on Saturday afternoon in a game that will have significant consequences for all teams in the middle of the AFL ladder.
GWS come into the game with two wins, two losses and a draw from their last five games including a one point loss to the Gold Coast on the weekend.
They will be without Lachie Whitfield who suffered a concussion last weekend and his absence will leave a big gap in their midfield.
The Swans have been the surprise packet of the AFL season and they have proven many punters and pundits wrong by continuing to play exceptional football into the business end of the year.
And they just keep getting better!
A 92 point thumping of West Coast was followed by a 19 point win over the current Premiership favourites in the Western Bulldogs in Round 17.
Tip: Swans 1-39 @ $2.05
It has been another mediocre year for the Gold Coast Suns with many good signs and just as many poor ones.
Once again, they are is seemingly stuck in the middle to lower end of the competition and this can be summed up by their frustratingly inconsistent performances.
They come into this game however on the back of two wins against the GWS and Richmond and have the advantage of their home ground this Saturday afternoon.
The Dogs dropped a game they shouldn’t have against Sydney last weekend but credit needs to be given to the Swans who played four quarters of quality football.
They cling to second position on percentage only but there is a reason that they are the premiership favourites.
No one has scored more points than the Dogs in season 2021 and they also top the competition in average Centre Clearances as well as average Goal Assists.
Back the Dogs to bounce back.
Tip: Back Western Bulldogs -25.5 Points @ $2.00
Melbourne heads into Round 18 of the home and away season on top of the AFL ladder and their run home should assure them of a top two finish should they continue the form they are currently in.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing for the red and the blue with losses to Collingwood and GWS bringing out plenty of Demon deniers in recent weeks.
But the fact of the matter is that they are a game clear on top with a healthy percentage and have a home final, plus the very valuable double chance, all but sewn up.
Hawthorn have shown fight throughout the season but that was not evident when they were resoundingly beaten by Fremantle to the tune of 62 points on the weekend.
The Hawks may be looking to the future at this stage in the season and while this is a tough challenge I think they can keep the score line reasonably close with plenty to prove to the coach in waiting.
Tip: Back Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20
St Kilda has been a horrible team for punters this year with plenty finding it difficult to assess their best from their worst.
And both their best and worst has been on show.
Horrible losses to Essendon (75 points), Richmond (86 points) and the Western Bulldogs (111 points) have been been the lowlights but they come into this clash with Port Adelaide off the back of three wins in a row.
Port Adelaide have lost just five times so far this season and all five have been to fellow top eight teams.
In fact, they have lost all four of their games against teams that currently sit in the top 4.
Are they pretenders?
Well the fact of the matter is, if you finish inside the top four and play your best football in September, you give yourself a chance at winning a premiership.
They need to win this game to give themselves this chance.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide @ $1.78
Not much was expected of North Melbourne heading into season 2021 and despite winning just three games so far, it’s safe to say that they have exceeded expectations.
Their best performance undoubtedly came on Monday when they clipped the Eagles’ wings in Perth, something that can really build a foundation for a football team going forward.
Essendon are another team that are starting to perform at the right time of the year and they find themselves just outside the AFL top eight with six games to play.
The Bombers do not have a problem scoring and in recent weeks they have subsided the amount of points being put on them which is something I am sure that Ben Rutten has drilled into his young team.
This should be a very interesting contest but the Bombers simply have to much to play for.
Tip: Back Essendon 40+ @ $3.20
Traditional rivals Carlton and Collingwood do battle on Sunday afternoon at the home of football and this shapes as a cracker of a contest between 13th and 15th.
Carlton put together back to back wins against Adelaide and Fremantle before wayward kicking put their chances to bed against Geelong on the weekend.
Collingwood comes into this clash off the back of a come from behind win against Richmond and it is easy to see a change of tactics already from new coach Robert Harvey.
He has implored his players to show their footballing personalities and to take the game on and it has had an immediate impact on their game style and ball movement.
This game will be won by the team that can take their chances when going into their forward 50 and in lieu of a tip I will be tipping a tight one.
Tip: Back Either Team By Under 24.5 Points @ $1.68
The Crows were comfortably accounted for by Essendon in round 17 and they have now lost three on the trot.
They clearly missed the presence of Tex Walker up forward and struggled to find an avenue to goal, kicking just two goals for the game.
The Eagles are hanging onto a spot inside the top eight and are hopelessly out of form and this was no more evident than when they lost to the bottom placed Kangaroos in front of their home fans on Monday.
They too head into this clash on the back of three losses in a row but they simply have too much to play for in this one.
Tip: Back West Coast -8.5 @ $1.90
2019
The upsets continued in the AFL last weekend and the competition continues to produce from a betting perspective.
This is another round with games between a host of finals contenders and there is no doubt that it will have a clear bearing on the final make-up of the top eight.
We have analysed all nine games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 AFL Round 18 tips can be found below.
https://youtu.be/RlnHfvgNHpY
This is a huge game for both these sides that are just sitting inside the top eight.
Adelaide returned to winning form with a dominant victory over the Gold Coast Suns, but it really is tough to take anything from that win.
Their form before that had been shakey and they have won only five of their past nine matches as home favourites, while they are a poor 3-6 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon have clawed their way into the top eight with three wins on the trot and they have held their nerve in each of these wins over GWS, Sydney and North Melbourne.
Winning away from home has been something of an issue for the Bombers this season and they have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss.
It really would not surprise to see these two sides produce a Friday night thriller and I don’t think there will be as much between these sides as the current market suggests.
Back Either Team To Win By Less Than 15.5 Points @ $2.70
https://youtu.be/11a3ao7hFYc
Are Richmond back?
It certainly looks that way.
Richmond have had their AFL premiership odds slashed after they recorded a pair of impressive wins over the Gold Coast Suns and GWS and they will go into this clash with Port Adelaide as clear favourites.
The Tigers have won ten of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are an impressive 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide’s struggle for consistency continues.
They were excellent against Adelaide in Showdown 47, but they produced a truly pitiful performance against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they have claimed back-to-back wins only twice in the past 12 months.
Port Adelaide have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs, but their record against the line in this scenario is no better.
Richmond are looking to make a statement over the next month and they should prove too strong for Port Adelaide.
Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-23.5 Points) @ $1.90
https://youtu.be/5_-n_tZcrtg
A Carlton win in this clash could very well deliver the Gold Coast Suns another wooden spoon.
Carlton head into this clash on the back of a fighting win over Sydney and this is the shortest price that they have started a match for some time.
This is the first time that Carlton have started a game as favourites in over 12 months and it will be interesting to see how they handle that pressure.
The Suns were able to beat Carlton when they met earlier this season, but it is fair to say that the Suns have gone backwards since then.
Their past two defeats, at the hands of Adelaide and Richmond, have been particularly poor and it is impossible to have any faith in this side from a betting perspective.
They have won only two of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.
Patrick Cripps To Have 30+ Disposals @ $1.90
https://youtu.be/QmbKRSdt3Y8
The market suggests that this will be the most competitive game of the weekend.
The injury crisis at Greater Western Sydney worsened when Stephen Coniglio went down against Richmond last weekend, but they will still start this clash as narrow favourites.
They have fallen out of the top four following a string of losses to Essendon, Brisbane and Richmond and they desperately need to return to winning form.
The Giants have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a small loss and they are a flat 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood ended their own winning streak with a narrow win over the West Coast Eagles and that is sure to be a confidence builder for Nathan Buckley’s men.
The Magpies have won two of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit and winning on the road has not been an issue this season.
It is worrying times at GWS and I think that Collingwood can resign them to another defeat.
Back Collingwood To Win @ $1.97
https://youtu.be/9CMKDTV8JlU
The Brisbane Lions are into $9 to win the AFL Premiership and their popularity in Brisbane is the greatest that it has been in a decade.
Brisbane go into this clash on the back of four straight wins and they have been absolutely outstanding away from home against GWS and Port Adelaide over the past fortnight.
The Lions have been one of the most reliable betting teams in the entire competition this season and they have generally got the job done as favourites.
Brisbane have won five of their past six games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne’s finals aspirations took a hit when they went down to Essendon last weekend and this is the type of game that they need to win if they are going to finish inside the top four.
The Kangaroos have played some decent football away from home this season and they have covered the line in five of their past eight games as away underdogs for a profit.
The betting play that does appeal in this clash is the Over in Total Points betting.
The line has been set at 167.5 points and that mark has been cleared in the past five matches played between these two teams.
Back Over 167.5 Points @ $1.90
https://youtu.be/m4mylvh-6Oc
This is a must-win for either of these teams if they want to have any chance of playing finals football in 2019.
It has been a tough month for Fremantle.
They haven’t won a game since they beat Port Adelaide on June 15th and they have been particularly poor against West Coast and Hawthorn over the past fortnight.
They will still start this clash as favourites and it is home-ground advantage that could prove key.
They have won six of their past eight games as home favourites and the home side has won seven of the past eight games played between these two sides.
Sydney’s season hit a new low when they went down to Carlton last weekend and they look set to miss the top eight for the first time since 2009.
The Swans record in Perth is poor and they have won only four of their past ten games on the road.
This is Fremantle’s chance to end their losing streak and return to winning form.
Back Fremantle To Win @ $1.60
https://youtu.be/CMEslFCFMbI
The rivalry between Geelong and Hawthorn is one of the fiercest in the AFL and there is still no love lost between these two sides.
Geelong returned to winning form with a professional win over St Kilda last weekend and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Cats have won ten of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 8-3 against the line in this scenario.
Hawthorn have found some form in recent weeks and they head into this game on the back of a pair of impressive wins over Collingwood and Fremantle.
The Hawks have generally been a predictable betting side this season – they have won as favourites and failed to get the job done as underdogs.
Hawthorn have covered the line in only five of their past 13 games as underdogs and it would not surprise to see Geelong flex their muscles against their rivals this weekend.
Back Geelong To Cover The Line (-20.5 Points) @ $1.90
https://youtu.be/N51Br9ZElAU
This is a rematch of last year’s Preliminary Final and it is fair to say that Melbourne have not been the same team since then.
No team in the AFL this season has been worse from a betting perspective than Melbourne and it doesn’t get any easier for them against West Coast.
The Demons have won only four of their past 13 games as underdogs and they are 6-7 against the line when being given a start.
West Coast suffered a heart-breaking defeat at the hands of Collingwood last weekend and they are 5-1 on the back of a loss over the past 12 months.
The Eagles have won 14 of their past 18 games as favourites for a clear profit and they are 11-7 against the line in this scenario.
It might not be as ugly as the Preliminary Final last season, but West Coast should still prove far too strong for the Melbourne in this encounter.
Back West Coast To Cover The Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90
https://youtu.be/UxtWNRXeFXo
The Western Bulldogs are making a charge towards the top eight and they will go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
They proved their wins over Port Adelaide and Geelong were no flukes when they kept their call to outlast Melbourne last weekend.
Winning as favourites has been something of an issue for the Bulldogs and they have won only four of their past seven games in this scenario, while they are 2-5 against the line when giving away a start.
St Kilda parted company with Alan Richardson during the week, after six unsuccessful seasons at the helm, and the new-coach bounce has definitely been a factor in the AFL this season.
Carlton and North Melbourne have both improved significantly since Brendan Bolton and Brad Scott were removed from their positions and it will be interesting to see if the Saints are able to follow suit.
St Kilda have won only three of their past 16 games as underdogs and they are a battling 7-9 against the line in this scenario.
This looks set to be a low-scoring clash and the Total Points line of 161.5 points does seem excessive.
Less than that figure have been scored in four of the past five games played between these two sides and I would be surprised if that figure is exceeded.
Under 161.5 Points
2018
The footy landscape took another turn last week.
With just six weeks left to play, the finals picture is starting to shape up, and it’s do-or-die time for the likes of Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
Who’s holding onto their spot in the eight?
We’ve previewed all nine games, and our 2018 AFL Round 18 Tips can be found below!
The $6.00 odds tell the full story – St. Kilda are no chance, right?
On the back of a win over Carlton last Friday, the Saints are searching for two straight, and although these teams are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum (and the ladder) you don’t have to rewind very far to find St. Kilda’s last win over the Tigers.
The Saints were heavy outsiders back then as they are now, but Round 17 provided the upset as St. Kilda defeated Richmond 138-71.
Of course, these two have met recently, with the Tigers recording an equally impressive blowout over the Saints back in Round 10 earlier this year.
If you’ll remember, Josh Caddy booted six goals that day to lead them to a 28-point victory.
So where does all that leave us now?
St. Kilda have every right to hold their heads high following last week’s win.
The three Jack’s were all impressive, with Steven, Steele and Billings all recording 30+ disposals.
The Tigers, though, they were just unlucky, and after several missed shots at goal, a hungry Richmond outfit looking for revenge on last week’s disappointment against GWS is a scary thought.
Now having lost four games on the road, the Tigers will be out to prove to their critics that they are still the team to beat.
Fortunately for the yellow and black, Daniel Rioli has booted six goals over the last three weeks, complimenting Jack Riewoldt’s efforts up forward.
Take nothing away from the Saints, they’ve played some hard footy over the last month, which has so far kept Alan Richardson in a job.
Against one of the best first and fourth quarter teams in the competition, though, this should be nothing more than a serious belting.
Back Richmond 40+ @ $1.90
It was hardly a Sunday fun-day for these two sides last weekend.
Collingwood’s loss to the Eagles cost the Pies second spot on the ladder, while North did themselves no favours by failing to capitalize against an under-strength Sydney team.
You could say North’s meeting with Sydney was the game of the year, and it’s not very often we see Majak Daw kick a four-goal bag, but still, the Roos’ loss might have cost them a spot in the eight, but these Shinboners aren’t done just yet.
For Collingwood, much of last week’s woes came through the midfield, but it was their woes in front of the sticks that hurt the most.
The Pies led by just one-point at halftime, but after 15 scoring shots to West Coast’s nine, it certainly should have been much, much more.
Mark it down as just an off day if you will, but it’s clear even Jordan de Goey’s four-goal bags won’t always be enough to get the Pies over the line – especially against the competitions elite.
You can hardly place North Melbourne in that category of course, and as we saw last week, the Roos’ inability to win centre clearances when it counted was what ultimately cost them against the Swans.
The last two encounters between these teams have hardly been close, but given the magnitude of this game and the finals stakes on the line for North Melbourne, this one should be a tight affair.
Given the battered and bruised shape of Collingwood’s back-line, though, North Melbourne are the pick here.
The Pies allowed eight goals between William Rioli, Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy last week, and things don’t get any easier with Daw and Ben Brown up next.
Back North Melbourne To Win @ $2.45
Who says Sydney aren’t a premiership contender?
Even when the chips are down, the Swans just keep on marching.
Dan Hannebery and Jarrad McVeigh’s absence looked to seriously hinder Sydney’s shot at the flag, but aside from Buddy Franklin booting his 900th goal last week, the Swans once again caught a serious case of Ronke-itis.
The young Ben Ronke has turned into a serious sensation this season, rejuvenating Sydney’s forward line for the future.
His five-goal bag last week wasn’t quite as impressive as his seven-goal bag against the Hawks back in Round 8, but he has a chance to outdo himself against the lowly Suns at home this week.
Gold Coast’s season went from worst to, well, desperate last week against the Bombers.
Okay, full credit, the Suns were in this game up until half time, but the belief seemingly fell away as the Bombers went on to win by 44-points.
Round 23 can’t come quick enough now for Stuart Dew, and with a trip to face Sydney at the SCG, suddenly the Suns could be looking at the wooden spoon following what could be their 12th straight loss.
The Swans’ ability to win crucial clearances last week was great, but more impressively, their ability to hold their nerve showed true signs of an experienced premiership team.
North Melbourne booted ahead in the dying stages of the final term, but a clutch goal from Aliir Aliir on the heels of two freakish snaps from Buddy Franklin highlighted how dangerous this team is when they are given just a sniff.
With that in mind, the Swans should have no trouble here at home.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-52.5 Points)
Looks like the Bombers aren’t done just yet.
Essendon’s victory over the Suns last week ensured the finals are still within reach, and with a handy game up next against the Dockers, John Worsfold’s team could be in line for a spot in the eight.
Surprisingly enough, Fremantle proved they are no pushover last week, edging Port Adelaide by nine-points in a rather low-scoring and dull contest at Optus Stadium.
Mathematically Freo are still a chance to play finals, and with four more home games still to come, anything is a chance.
The Bombers have been up and down all season, and having won just one of their last five against the Dockers, history isn’t on their side.
There were also calls for concern last week during the first half against the Suns.
Trailing by five-points against a much lesser opponent is never a good look, and as we’ve seen more than once this season, the Bombers still look incapable of stringing together a full four-quarter win.
Since this game is in Melbourne however, the Bombers should have this one.
Fremantle have won just once in the footy capital this year, with the Dockers’ last trip to Etihad to face the Bombers resulting in a 25-point loss.
Back Essendon To Cover The Line (-28.5 Points) @ $1.90
Don’t look now, but Brisbane are on the verge of history.
The last time the Lions won four straight was during the 2008 season, and on the heels of a season-defining win against the Hawks down in Launceston, anything is possible heading back to The Gabba.
The Crows have won six straight over the Lions, but Adelaide’s record on the road isn’t quite as convincing – Don Pyke’s side has won just two interstate games all year.
As we saw last week, gone are the days of the Lions’ sloppy inside fifty entries.
Chris Fagan’s side have grown in leaps and bounds, particularly in the forward line, while Eric Hipwood shapes up as a potential future Coleman Medalist.
Before we get too ahead of ourselves though, the Crows have everything to play for this weekend, and they’ll have to do it minus Tex Walker.
A one week ban has ruled the captain out for Saturday’s game, but Adelaide will need to rally away from home if they wish to keep their slim hope of finals alive.
One of the biggest keys to this game for both teams will be pressure, and although the Crows midfield stacks up in terms of talent, Brisbane’s pressure against the Hawks last week can’t be overlooked.
Of particular importance to the Lions is Daniel Rich.
His seven tackles last week set the bar, and as we saw, when Brisbane apply that kind of pressure around the ball, it creates equal opportunities for the likes of Hipwood and Cam Rayner to snap some shots.
There was a time when Brisbane would fold when they were given a chance to win the game, and although the growing pains aren’t entirely over, Brisbane’s six goals to Hawthorn’s one-point during the final quarter last week tells the full story of where this team is heading.
A lot has been made of the Lions at home this year, but even more has been made of the Crows on the road.
Brisbane in another upset.
Back Brisbane To Win @ $2.35
Are we staring at a potential finals preview here?
Sitting eighth on the ladder, the Cats need this one badly.
Last week’s disappointment in Adelaide cost Geelong a prime opportunity to secure themselves a spot in the finals, but fortunately a trip back home to Simonds Stadium awaits next.
As for the Demons, well it’s hard to know what to make of the red and the blue.
A 50-point win secured two straight victories for Melbourne, but are the Dees still a realistic premiership threat?
If Melbourne were to march into Geelong and notch a win over the Cats, there would be no doubt about it, but since the Demons’ last win at Simonds Stadium came way back in 2015, there’s every reason to doubt the Dees this week.
As for Geelong, to win this one they simply need to knuckle down.
Sloppy turnovers and an inability to control momentum have cost the Cats on more than once occasion, but if the Cats can get themselves back on the same page, Geelong are as dangerous as anyone in the competition.
It’s something we never thought we’d say, but better production from Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield is needed from this moment forward. 20-disposal efforts don’t cut it, and it also doesn’t help when Tom Hawkins converts just two of his seven scoring shots, just like he did last week.
The Dees on their day can make a mockery of any team, but if Geelong can limit Melbourne on the scoreboard, particularly during the third quarter, the Cats should hold on to their spot in the eight.
Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.15
There were always question marks surrounding this Hawthorn outfit, but this? Who would’ve thought.
The Hawks were poor for so many patches during their loss to the Lions last week, kicking just one-point in the fourth quarter.
Tasmania has become a fortress for Hawthorn, but Alastair Clarkson’s side only provided frustration for the Hawks’ southern faithful.
Injuries have been a huge problem for Hawthorn, and as we saw last week, the loss of Ben McEvoy around the ruck really hurt.
The Hawks were dominated in the clearance category 44-29, but it doesn’t help when three of your best full-forwards fail to show up.
With Jack Gunston kicking the lone two-goals between himself, Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust, the Hawks were put to shame against a half-strength Lions back line.
The loss has now called into question the selection of players like James Frawley and Paul Puopolo, but while it looks like panic stations at Glenferrie, the Hawks do have a comfy game against the Blues up next.
Carlton’s season took another turn for the worst last week, losing Matthew Kreuzer to an elevated heartbeat.
The Blues were seriously undermanned last week following Kreuzer’s absence, and while Patrick Cripps filled in, if the Blues are missing their star forward against the Hawks, they should be in trouble.
For Hawthorn to win, they need to take this game seriously though, something they failed to do last week against the Lions.
It’s been one extreme to the next for Hawthorn, but this really is do-or-die in terms of finals, now we just wait and see if the old “clutch” Hawthorn side shows up.
Back Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40
The Eagles won the game last week, but they may have lost the war at the same time.
Nic Naitanui’s injury put a dampener on what was otherwise a resounding win over Collingwood at the G’, a victory that sent the Eagles back to second on the ladder.
With Naitanui doubtful for the rest of the season, you could argue the Eagles aren’t the biggest threat to Richmond’s premiership chances, but if West Coast were to dish out a serious belting against the Bulldogs this week, we might all think differently.
The Doggies are really running on fumes now, surviving with a depleted list ravished by injuries.
Another harsh road trip awaits this week to Perth, and after last week’s severer disappointment at the hands of the Demons, it’s hard to see the Dogs rallying to pull off the unthinkable here.
Stepping in to replace Nic Nat is fellow ruckman Scott Lycett, but he’s not the only inclusion the Eagles will be happy about. A healthy Josh Kennedy snapped three goals last week against the Pies, and although West Coast’s midfield has copped a devastating blow, West Coast are still in prime position for a win this weekend and a big finals run.
Back West Coast To Cover The Line (-41.5 Points)
Last week was a game the Power should have won, but a scrappy, low-scoring affair against Fremantle cost Port Adelaide not only a victory, but fourth place on the ladder.
GWS, on the other hand, made good of their home ground advantage against the Tigers, holding on for a nail-biting two-point victory over the reigning premiers.
With so many pieces missing, the Giants looked like the GWS of old, and with a spot back inside the Top 8, all of a sudden Leon Cameron’s side could make a run toward the finals.
On paper this game looks tough to call, but Port Adelaide’s home ground advantage should prove to be the deciding factor here.
The Power have won six games at Adelaide Oval this season, but believe it or not, GWS have been particularly strong in interstate games, notching five victories this season.
Unfortunately for the Power, the Giants have also found success at Adelaide Oval.
The last time Port hosted GWS was in 2016, a game the Giants won 79-60.
Things have certainly changed since then, but if GWS can knuckle down and apply pressure on the Power, much like they did last week against the Tigers, they could pull off another upset.
Back GWS To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
2017
It is another massive weekend of action in the AFL and it doesn’t get much bigger than the Friday Night Blockbuster between Adelaide and Geelong.
This could be a genuine AFL Grand Final preview, but the Greater Western Sydney Giants are sure to have something to say about that and they take on Richmond in another massive game on Sunday afternoon.
All nine matches offer some level of intrigue from a betting perspective and our complete 2017 AFL Round 18 tips can be found below.
The rivalry between these two sides has been dominated by Patrick Dangerfield in recent years, but there is every chance that the star midfielder will not be in action this weekend after he suffered an ankle injury during last week’s win over Hawthorn.
Dangerfield’s likely absence is one of the main reasons that Adelaide are set to start this clash as clear favourites – even though they have lost their past five games against Geelong.
Adelaide have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and more impressively in each of those wins they have managed to cover the line.
Geelong extended their unbeaten run with a fighting victory over Hawthorn, but there is little doubt that they would not have won that game without Dangerfield in the side.
This will be a true test of whether Geelong are a one man team – or two man team if you include Joel Sellwood – and it really is tough to have any faith in them without Dangerfield in the team.
The Crows are always tough to beat at the Adelaide Oval regardless and they are a good bet to cover the line with a 12.5 points start.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)
North Melbourne have won their past four games against Essendon, but it is the Bombers that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Essendon produced one of their best performances of the season to dismantle St Kilda last weekend and they are capable of competing with the best teams in the competition when they produce their best form.
Winning as favourites has proven to be an issue for Essendon and they have won just one of their past four games as the punter’s elect.
North Melbourne were no match for Port Adelaide last weekend and they have now lost six games on the trot.
The Kangaroos have now won only two of their past 15 games as away underdogs and they are a middling 7-8 against the line in this scenario.
These are two teams that are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
No Bet
Port Adelaide will go into this crucial clash with Melbourne as narrow favourites.
Port Adelaide made it two wins on the trot with a dominant display against North Melbourne, but they still have a reputation as flat-track bullies and their record against top-sides is very poor.
The Power have won five of their past six games as away favourites and they have an identical record against the line.
Melbourne were no match for Adelaide last weekend and they could potentially fall out of the top eight if they fail to win this weekend.
The Demons have won one of their past three games as home underdogs, but they are only 1-2 against the line in this scenario and their record against Port Adelaide is very poor.
There is plenty to like about Port Adelaide in this clash and the line of 6.5 points does not seem like anywhere near enough.
Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
The Western Bulldogs won ugly against Carlton and they need to keep winning to have any chance of playing Finals Football.
They covered the line last weekend, but the Bulldogs really have been an extremely tough side to trust from a betting standpoint this season.
The Bulldogs have won ten of their past 16 games as favourites for a clear loss, while they are an extremely poor 3-13 against the line when giving away a start.
Gold Coast suffered their fourth loss in five games when they went down to Collingwood last weekend and they really do look to be a side that has had enough this season.
The Suns have won only three of their past 14 games as underdogs and they are a middling 7-7 against the line in this scenario.
There really is no value to be found in this clash and I am more than happy to stay out.
No Bet
The Sydney Swans are on a serious roll to the AFL Finals and they go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
Sydney made it six wins on the trot with their stellar victory over Greater Western Sydney last weekend and they are now back in the frame as a genuine premiership contender.
The Swans have won eight of their past 13 games as home favourites for a loss and they are still only 6-7 against the line in this scenario, but they have won their past seven games against St Kilda.
St Kilda produced one of their worst performances of the season to go down to Essendon last weekend, but the market really has overreacted to that performance.
The Saints have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
There really isn’t anywhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and St Kilda are an excellent bet to cover the line with a very healthy start.
Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+27.5 Points)
There is very little between these two teams in betting and it is Hawthorn that will start this clash as narrow favourites.
Hawthorn lost no admirers with their narrow loss at the hands of Geelong last weekend and they have found a semblance of their best form in recent weeks.
The problem for the Hawks is that they have lost their past three games as away favourites and have really struggled as the punter’s elect this season.
Fremantle were extremely poor against the West Coast Eagles last weekend and they are another side that may have already started looking towards 2017.
The Dockers have won just two of their past nine games as home underdogs and they are 3-6 against the line in this scenario.
It is impossible to trust either of these sides from a betting perspective and this is another clash that I am more than happy to steer clear of.
No Bet
It has been a tough month for Greater Western Sydney, but they will still go into this clash with Richmond as clear favourites.
GWS’s loss to Sydney last weekend means that they have not won a game since they beat the Brisbane Lions nearly a month ago and they have looked increasingly vulnerable.
The Giants have now won only six of their past ten games as away favourites and they are a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Richmond almost beat GWS earlier this season and they have shown on a number of occasions in 2017 that they are capable of mixing it with the best teams in the competition.
The Tigers have won three of their past six games as home underdogs and they are a profitable 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
This has the making of another thriller and the Tigers are a good bet to beat the line with the insurance of a 8.5 points start.
Back Richmond To Beat The Line (+8.5 Points)
This is a massive game for the West Coast Eagles as they now have their finals chances in their own hands.
West Coast did enough to see off Fremantle, but it has been a long time since they were able to string together back-to-back wins.
The Eagles have won only three of their past eight games as away favourites for a clear loss and taking them on against the line in this scenario has been a highly profitable play.
Collingwood ended their losing streak with a good win over the Gold Coast Suns and they did win the most recent meeting between those two sides.
The Magpies have won one of their past three games as home underdogs, but they are 2-1 against the line as away underdogs and 9-1 against the line as underdogs in general.
Collingwood are more than capable of winning this game and are an excellent bet to beat the line with a start of 7.5 points.
Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)
The Brisbane Lions desperately need to win this game if they are going to be any chance of avoiding the wooden spoon.
They will go into this clash as underdogs, but they weren’t disgraced against Richmond last weekend and they have played some decent football over the past month.
Brisbane have won only two of their past ten games as home underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is no better.
Carlton really missed Patrick Cripps last weekend against the Western Bulldogs and they suffered their fourth loss on the trot.
The Blues have really struggled as favourites this season – they have lost their only two games as away favourites and are incredibly tough to trust in this scenario.
Both Brisbane and Carlton have shown some promising signs this season, but they are still incredibly tough to trust from a betting perspective.
No Bet
2016
There is no Thursday night game this weekend and the round gets underway on Friday night when Collingwood host North Melbourne.
Saturday’s fixtures are highlighted by the crucial clash between Geelong and Adelaide, with new Cats recruit Patrick Dangerfield set to take on his former teammates.
There are a number of exciting games on Sunday, but the highlight is sure to be the massive clash between Hawthorn and Richmond at the MCG.
North Melbourne have now lost five games on the trot, but punters are confident that they can return to winning form when they take on Collingwood this weekend.
The Kangaroos may have hit a form slump in the past month, but they have still proven to be a profitable betting team in the past 12 months and they have won their past seven games as away favourites, while they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood were not disgraced against the Adelaide Crows last weekend, but they were still unable to go with their rivals when the game was on the line.
The Magpies have won two of their past five games as home underdogs for a tidy profit, but their record against the line is only 2-3 and they continue to be a tough team to trust from a betting perspective.
I am willing to give North Melbourne one more chance this weekend and if they play anywhere near their best they should easily beat the line of 8.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
This is the biggest mismatch of the weekend and the Sydney Swans are dominant favourites to return to winning form against Carlton this weekend.
The Swans suffered a heart-breaking defeat at the hands of Hawthorn last weekend, but they still remain a very strong betting team and they have beaten the line in eight of their past 12 games as home favourites.
Carlton gave the West Coast Eagles a genuine scare last weekend, but they were still unable to get the job done and they have now won just two of their past ten games as away underdogs.
Their record against the Swans is particularly poor – they have lost their past three games against their rivals by 60 points or more – and Sydney are 6-3 against the line on the back of a loss.
I expect Sydney to bounce back in emphatic fashion this weekend and they should be able to record a sizeable victory.
Recommended Bet: Back The Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (-55.5 Points)
The Gold Coast Suns recorded their first ever win against Fremantle earlier this season and they are favourites to get the job done again this weekend.
The Suns were no match for the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but before that they were able to beat St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions and they have a surprisingly strong record as home favourites.
Gold Coast have won five out of their past six games in this scenario, but they remain a lacklustre 3-3 against the line.
Fremantle’s mid-season surge quickly came to an end and they head into this clash on the back of three straight losses, but they were far from disgraced against Fremantle last weekend.
The Dockers remain one of the worst betting team in the entire AFL and they have won just one of their past 11 games as away underdogs, while they are a truly woeful 3-8 against the line.
The Suns are normally able to get the job done when they are expected to win and they are a safe bet at their current quote of $1.57.
Recommended Bet: Back The Gold Coast Suns To Win @ $1.57
The West Coast Eagles have won their last eight games against Melbourne and they are dominant favourites to maintain their winning streak over their rivals this weekend.
West Coast were far from impressive against Carlton last weekend, but they were still able to get the job done and they are clearly a better team in front of their home fans at Domain Stadium.
The Eagles have now won 12 of their past 13 games at the venue for a strong profit and their record against the line is this scenario is a simply outstanding 11-2.
Melbourne were strong out of the gates against St Kilda last weekend, but they showed very little character when the game was on the line and they were very disappointing in the second half.
The Demons do not have a bad record as away underdogs – they have won three out of their past eight games in this scenario and are 5-3 against the line – but their record against West Coast is truly awful and they have failed to cover the line in their past eight meetings.
Melbourne will be no match for a firing West Coast and I don’t think that the line of 38.5 points will be anywhere near enough.
Recommended Bet: Back The West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-38.5 Points)
The Western Bulldogs have won six of their past seven games and they are clear favourites to continue their winning ways against St Kilda this weekend.
The Bulldogs are one of the most consistent betting sides in the AFL and they have won 13 of their past 15 games as favourites for a tidy profit, while they are an excellent 11-4 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda showed plenty of character to get the job done against the Demons last weekend, but it has been fixtures like this one in which they have really struggled in recent years.
The Saints have won just five of their past 19 games as away underdogs and they are a lackluster 9-10 against the line in this scenario.
I am always happy to stick with the Western Bulldogs and I am confident that they will have no trouble covering the line of 20.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-20.5 Points)
This is set to be the match of the round as Patrick Dangerfield and the Cats take on Adelaide in what should be a very tight affair.
Geelong ended their two match losing streak with a victory over Fremantle last weekend, but they were still far from impressive and they will need to produce an improved performance to be any chance of beating Adelaide this weekend.
The home ground advantage does give Geelong the edge in this fixture as they have won six of their past eight games as favourites at Simonds Stadium, while they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Adelaide continue to fly under the radar, but they have now won eight games on the trot and they have not been beaten since they faced Geelong in Adelaide earlier this season.
The Crows have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
This game is set to be an absolute ripper and both teams are genuine premiership contenders, but Geelong are the team to beat in front of their home fans and there is an edge at their current price of $1.60.
Recommended Bet: Back Geelong To Win @ $1.60
Nobody expected to see this happen in 2016, but Essendon are actually set to start a game as favourites!
Essendon have not won a game since they beat Melbourne in round 2, but they have been more than competitive in the past two weeks and gave both St Kilda and Richmond a scare.
This is the first time that the Bombers have started a game as favourites in the past 12 months and it is difficult to trust a team that has won just one of their past 11 home games as well as two of their past 23 fixtures.
Brisbane produced another uninspiring performance against the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and there is clearly something very wrong with this football club.
The club’s culture is clearly toxic and the side seem to have no interest in putting their foot forward for under-fire coach Justin Leppitsch.
The Lions have lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a truly horrid 2-9 against the line in this scenario.
This is set to be a clear contender for the worst game of the year and the only people with any real interest will be those have that have bets on the wooden spoon – I am personally more than happy to stay out of this affair!
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Hawthorn made it seven wins on the trot with their narrow victory over Sydney last weekend and they are not expected to have any trouble accounting for a Richmond side that has caused them problems in recent seasons.
Hawthorn just keep on finding ways to win this season and in my opinion they deserve to be clear premiership favourites – no other team has their ability to take control of a game when it really matters.
In saying that, the Hawks really haven’t been a particularly strong betting team this season and they have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites, while they are a very poor 2-9 against the line in this scenario.
Richmond returned to winning form with an uninspiring performance against Essendon, but they have really struggled against the big guns in the AFL this season.
The Tigers have won just one of their past four games as away underdogs and they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.
It is no secret that the Tigers have won three of their past five games against Hawthorn and gave them a scare earlier this season, but the market looks to have gotten this game just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend and it is the type of game that Port Adelaide need to win if they are going to leapfrog North Melbourne to finish in the top eight.
Port Adelaide proved far too strong for an uninspiring North Melbourne last weekend and have the home ground advantage, but they will still go into this clash as clear underdogs.
Port Adelaide have an outstanding record at the Adelaide Oval as favourites, but as underdogs they have really struggled this season and they have lost all three of their game as home underdogs this season, while they are 102 against the line.
Greater Western Sydney are genuine premiership contenders, but their record away from Spotless Stadium is still a slight concern and they are an unconvincing 4-3 as away favourites, while they are 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Both these teams don’t have a great record on the back of a victory and this is a very tricky game to analyse from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet