While each top eight contender continues to face the tough decision of how to approach the final weeks, us punters are making the tough choices of where the value lies in a dynamic push for the AFL finals 2024.  

With vital clashes across the board, there’s no room for error, starting with the Dees last gasp, one of the best rivalries, and the Dockers chance to cement top four.  

We’ve put together all our tips analysis ahead of a massive round of footy in the AFL Round 21 Preview.  

The Bulldogs have suddenly become not just a finals threat, but a premiership threat, firing in all aspects the past few weeks, most recently knocking off the ladder leaders at the SCG.  

Melbourne was dealt almost a killer blow on the weekend, narrowly going down to the Giants by two points, starting strong, but withering away in the middle of the game.  

It’s hard to stop the Dogs scoring avenues, deadly with their forward stock, as well as their elusive midfielders who can go forward and impact the scoreboard.  

The Dees haven’t looked or felt the same since they lost Christian Petracca, but arguably that’s been the case most of the year as they’ve struggled to find any form of consistency.  

They’re third-last in disposal efficiency in the competition and their contested pressure game has certainly failed to reach the heights of its past.  

Earlier this year it was the Dees who comfortably dismantled the Dogs at the MCG, which feels like the opposite of where this game is heading.  

2018 was the last time the Demons beat the Dogs at Marvel, and what works in their favour is the ability to play with freedom.  

If the Dogs get on top in the centre clearances, it’s hard to see the Dees being able to match them contest to contest for four quarters.  

Amazingly only one game separates these two teams, and in essence, it’s a mini–Elimination Final for both sides, or at least the top four for the Dogs. 

Tip: Footscray to win by 1-39 and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to kick 2+ goals @ $3.35 

It’s the battle of the Coast’s in the second game of the Friday double header, with the Suns still in search of their first win on the road, and it won’t come easy.  

It’s season over for the Suns, who face an impossible task of making finals from their position but went out with a hard-battled loss against the Lions.  

The Eagles looked promising early against the Dockers and went into the main break ahead before the Dockers turned it on.  

There’s no doubt the Eagles are a much more dominant team at home, and the odds are certainly confusing given the Suns inability to impact the contest interstate.  

Typically, that’s down to poor starts as well, where the Suns have lost the first quarter in nine of its ten last matches.  

West Coast capitalise on forward half pressure, and when they can thrive at the contest, they’re often unpredictable forward of centre.  

Efficiency inside 50 has been make or break for the Suns in weeks gone by, and it’s fair to say the same level of inaccuracy will kick them out of this game quite quickly.  

Their Queensland counterparts in much better form, Brisbane, only got the job done by 13 points a few weeks back, and it’s hard to see the Suns matching them by any stretch.  

Tip: Eagles to win @ $2.80 

 The wooden-spoon battle makes its way to Marvel, as the Roos are yet again faced with the prospect of losing or taking a number one draft pick.  

For all of Richmond’s gloom and doom this year, they’ve typically been competitive, and it wasn’t too prevalent against the Pies.  

North Melbourne has put together some promising performances in the past few months but just don’t have the class to do it for four quarters.  

Richmond’s disposal efficiency and lack of defensive impact to defend turnover has been their downfall whilst remaining competitive around the contest.  

This suits North Melbourne’s style of fast handball chains through the corridor, prioritising deep entries inside 50.  

Richmond’s dislike of Marvel Stadium also suits the Roos, who haven’t been beaten by the Tigers at Marvel since 2018.  

In such a contest where quality isn’t as efficient, it can be as simple as turning it over the least, which is slightly favour of North this year.  

Shot efficiency is in favour of the Tigers, so if they’re able to mount some scoreboard pressure early, the doubt will set in quickly for the Roos.  

Richmond is 18th for a reason, and even with a big effort, the Roos have built too much to lose the most winnable.  

Tip: North Melbourne to win by 1-24 @ $3.30

 Adelaide’s season was summed up well last week, lacking continuity and consistency at home against the rampaging Hawks.  

Geelong were trounced by the Dogs at home and certainly have a point to prove against the Crows to regain some pride at home.  

Statistics are on their side, as the Crows have lost the first quarter in Victoria in the past 17 outings, which does correlate to their poor road record.  

It’s been 21 years since the Crows won at GHMBA, and whilst they were valiant last year, it’s a ground they don’t play too well.  

Geelong’s defensive deficiencies have let them down lately and they’re not in ripping form heading into finals, but are likely to make it with a desirable draw.  

If the Crows can generate speed in transition, they’re likely to impact inside 50, but it’s their own game they get beaten on typically, unable to defend chaos ball in the forward half.  

The Crows average high disposal efficiency but haven’t been able to finish well inside 50, which works in the Cats favour.  

Geelong isn’t locked into finals, so they need to perform, but if the Crows come and play with freedom, they could cause a major upset.  

Tip: Geelong to cover the line (-19.5) and Jeremy Cameron to kick 2+ goals @ $2.38 

One of football’s ultimate rivalries, the Carlton v Collingwood clash is always one to keep an eye on.  

Neither side is in comfortable waters at the moment, with neither too certain of what the near future looks like.  

For the Blues, they are still hanging on to a top four spot, so if they can turn it around, their run home is presenting a double-chance opportunity.  

Collingwood finally got back on winning terms against the Tigers last week, not in pretty fashion, but it restored some confidence in the playing group who sit one game out of the top eight.  

The last time they met was back in Round 8, where Nick Daicos sunk the Blues in the final minute to get home by a goal, which seems like it’s the stock-standard ending in the most recent encounters between the two sides.  

Without Harry McKay last week, it was clear the Blues desperately needed a second tall to help Charlie Curnow, as they ran out of options after extending their lead to 31 points against Port.  

Collingwood has lacked forward options in general and have also lacked efficiency in front of the big sticks which doesn’t help.  

Collingwood was able to beat the Blues without a full-strength last time, so they’ll head in with confidence they can do it again.  

Carlton lost the first game to the Pies last yeare but won the second encounter, so they’re capable of learning their lesson, but form lines are completely different from this time last year.  

In Scott Pendlebury’s 400th game, a Collingwood home game, and a finals spot still on the line, the Pies have always had the edge over the Blues, and pose a massive danger game threat.  

Tip: Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.70 

Port proved they still can match it with the Blues last week, but whilst the win was good, they still showed a lot of defensive gaps, having to claw back from 31-points against a side with one key forward.  

Sydney seems in no better form, losing to the Dogs by 39 points at home, lacking emphasis in their contest work.  

Pound-for-pound the Swans have the edge with class in all thirds of the ground, and when the Power don’t turn up with their pressure, they’re outdone quite quickly.  

The Swans haven’t enjoyed playing the Power at Adelaide Oval in the last decade, Round 2, 2015,was the last time they beat the Power in Adelaide.  

Port Adelaide’s move of Esava Ratugolea inside 50 has created multiple marking targets for the Power, but it still feels like they need more output from smaller forwards to damage at ground level.  

Sydney weren’t able to get good output from their forward stocks against the Dogs, and there is a clear difference in their performance when their midfielders can’t contribute either.  

The speed of the Swans will be hard for the Power to shut out, and their struggles of defending over the top transition will work in the favour of Sydney.  

While they sit comfortably in first, they’re heading into September with some question marks that they’ll need to address, which starts with a big road-win against the Power.  

Tip: Sydney to win and Dan Houston to have 20+ disposals @ $2.26 

What a prospect this contest promises to be, with the Hawks annihilating anyone in their path, while the Giants continue to maintain impressive form on the road to September.  

It’s the second meeting of the year for these sides, and the Hawks got the job done in a thriller down in Tassie by a goal, so they certainly know how to beat the Giants.  

It was the Hawks clinical finishing inside 50 late in the contest that got them over the line, although it was the Giants who had most of the dominance through the centre.  

It feels as though Hawthorn have become even more of an attacking threat since that game, and they’ve proved it in recent weeks with scores of 124 and 133.  

Last week, the Hawks had eight multiple goal scorers, which is incredible spread for a team still figuring themselves out.  

GWS hasn’t been super convincing recently despite their winning nature, lacking real hurt factor during periods of games, simply capitalising on their opportunities in the forward half which keeps them winning.  

Where the Giants will advance is around the contest, as the Hawks pressure is on the lower side of the competition, so stoppage dominance becomes a big factor in this one.  

The last clash between these two at Manuka was the infamous snowy night in 2019, where the Hawks won by 56 points, so they are technically 100% at the venue.  

The burden of expectation is something the Hawks don’t have to face, and that is what makes them so lethal at the moment, so it’s hard to see a team around their mark taking them down.  

Tip: Hawthorn to win and Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.39 

If a majority of punters are being honest, we predicted the Bombers to finish in the bottom half, so it’s not a surprise, but another gut-punch to supporters that they’ve done it again.  

Facing almost every statistic in history towards them on making finals with their early season record, the Bombers look ready to crash out again, playing with little spirit, smashed by the Saints last week.  

It offers quite a massive test for the Dockers, who are on the precipice of a top four spot with a win this week, needing to do it against a side who are on their knees.  

It’s been 25, yes, 25 years since the Bombers and Dockers played at the MCG, Round 14, 1999.  

So, in terms of venue recency, there’s nothing to suggest either side is favoured, but based off form at the ground this year, the Dockers seem to love playing there.  

The lack of pressure the Bombers present in crunch time games is what sits them a tier below the upper echelon, and the lack of class also doesn’t help their case.  

Pressure has to be present against the Dockers, who are the fourth best team when it comes to marks inside 50, and in the top half for goal efficiency.  

The midfield battle is strongly in favour of the Dockers who sit second in stoppage clearances compared to the Bombers in fifth last.  

The Dockers have too many avenues forward of centre to hit the scoreboard, and the Bombers have typically fallen to pieces defensively when it becomes chaos ball inside 50.  

The Dockers win and it’s almost a top four lock and the Bombers done and dusted.  

Tip: Fremantle to cover the line (-9.5) and Luke Jackson Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.25  

Ross the Boss is here to spoil the party for a few finals hopefuls heading into the backend of the year, and the Bombers were first, so will the Lions top four hopes be second?  

Hard to see it happening, but stranger things have happened.  

The Lions made it seven in a row on the Gold Coast, rocketing up to second spot on the ladder, but arguably the best team in the competition right now.  

St Kilda have won their last two games and are putting together some enjoyable football, expressing their offensive capabilities.  

But in fairness, they haven’t truly been tested defensively the last two weeks against poorer sides in Essendon and West Coast, so the natural freedom won’t come as easy against the Lions.  

The return of Harris Andrews will bolster the Lions defensive stocks, and without a genuine key forward, the Saints need similar output from Anthony Caminiti and Tim Membrey to pull off another upset.  

Their first meeting this year up at the Gabba was high scoring, but the Saints couldn’t hold back the Lions who put 126 past them.  

2018 was the last time the Saints beat the Lions at Marvel, and besides the most recent game at the Gabba, the past few years have been quite low scoring defensive showcases.  

If the Lions midfield commits to defending transition, it’s hard to see the Saints class overpowering the Lions for four quarters.  

With a Saints home crowd that might slowly come back after some good performances, it might be closer than expected, but ultimately, the Lions should continue their purple patch.  

Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 

2023

Another finals-like round of footy awaits with just four weeks remaining of the regular 2023 AFL season.

The Friday night blockbusters continue with the Dogs taking on Richmond in a clash that could determine the makeup of the AFL finals, while another chapter in the Giants rivalry with the Swans will be written in a key ‘Battle of the Bridge’ game on Saturday.

The Saints and Blues meet in a top eight clash on Sunday under the roof at Marvel, followed by a pivotal game for the Lions against the Dockers in Perth.

With plenty left to play out, see who we’re tipping in Round 21 below!

Neither side needs reminding of what’s at stake on Friday night.

Two points separate the Dogs and the Tigers, Luke Beveridge’s side currently occupying 8th spot on the ladder, while Richmond still has ground to make up following a blowout loss to the Dees last Sunday.

Both sides follow similar scripts into this blockbuster clash, the Tigers falling away after leading at half-time last week, and the Dogs surrendering a healthy four-goal lead in a disappointing second half against GWS.

Neither side inspires a great deal of confidence right now, the market made even more complicated with the Dogs prevailing by only five points when they met earlier in the year.

The Dogs have been their own worst enemy in front of goal, but their pressure was the deciding factor in that previous Round 4 clash.

The Bont, in particular, was outstanding laying 12 tackles, an area that has cost the Tigers during this up and down season.

Side by side, the Dogs have also been a much cleaner team with the footy – Richmond are currently averaging around 75 turnovers a game.

This is another one that could easily go either way, but with the Tigers ranked third in inside 50s allowed to opponents, the Bulldogs’ forward line could be in for a big night – if they can make the most of their opportunities.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20

The market paints a compelling picture heading into this bottom six clash on Saturday.

At one point looking like a finals lock, the Dons have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, losing three in a row to the Cats, Dogs, and Swans.

Compared to last year, the season has still been a success under first-year head coach Brad Scott, but given Essendon ranks 18th in clearances and 15th in forward half entries, it’s fair to say the Bombers still have some improving to do.

Fortunately, Scott’s young side has a chance to hone their craft against the current favourites for the wooden spoon.

West Coast snuck home in a thriller to win just their second game of the season last week against North, but since they gave up 26 scoring shots to the Bombers when they met back in May, regular programming right resume.

Tip: Over 25.5 Total Goals @ $2.02

A 12th vs 14th clash awaits on Saturday with both sides playing to keep their finals hopes alive.

Adelaide and the Gold Coast were arguably the two biggest winners of Round 20, the Crows completing a clean sweep over rivals Port Adelaide in emphatic fashion, and the Suns also snapping a long losing skid to Brisbane in the Q-Clash.

The Crows are arguably the most-deserving team in the finals mix, playing Collingwood close on two occasions, beating Carlton, Brisbane, and St Kilda, and owning a pair of wins against the Power.

Matthew Nicks’ side has been almost impossible to beat at home this year, but the Crows do have their hands full against a Suns side more than capable of keeping up on the scoreboard.

Gold Coast has quietly been one of the best teams when it comes to winning the clearances this year, and if they can get the same kind of production they saw last week from Ben King, there’s no telling what they might be capable of.

Unfortunately, recent history is against the Suns, particularly in South Australia. Gold Coast has lost 14 straight games in Adelaide, but it’s worth noting their last six visits have all gone Over the Total.

With Taylor Walker looking a genuine Coleman chance, and King finding some form, a high-scoring Crows win might be on the cards.

Tip: Back the Crows to Win & Over 174.5 Total Points @ $2.50

The Pies will put their outstanding 5-0 record on the back of a loss to the test this week when they take on 16th placed Hawthorn at the ‘G.

For the first time in what feels like forever, Collingwood was unable to overcome a third-quarter deficit against the Blues last week – Craig McRae’s side the victims of some wayward kicking in front of goal, and some firce pressure from Carlton in the 17-point defeat.

The Hawks, meanwhile, played St Kilda back into form with a 29-point loss.

Sam Mitchell’s side found themselves on the back foot trailing by six goals at the end of the first term, but brown and gold fans should feel good about the fact they lost by only four points to Collingwood when they met last year.

On the selection front, McRae has some decisions to make this week with Ash Johnson and Jack Ginnivan putting up good numbers in the VFL, while Mitchell could also make some changes Jack Scrimshaw racking up the disposals last week for Box Hill.

Stats-wise, the Pies have averaged close to four more scoring shots a game compared to the Hawks, alongside the fact they’ve been a much more efficient team when it comes to marking the ball inside 50.

In some ways, last week’s loss could be seen as a positive for Collingwood – perhaps providing a nice reality check with the finals not far off.

The Hawks can be a tough out when their fierce attacking brand of footy works out, and it’s worth noting they’ve covered the line in five straight games against the Pies at the MCG.

Collingwood will be out to prove a point, but considering three of their last five wins have come by no more than 12 points, the Hawks with a head-start looks a nice bet.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+32.5 Points) @ $1.90

Of the six teams vying for a finals berth, the Cats appear the most likely to sneak in with a handy run home.

But nothing is a given this week against a Port outfit eager to prove their critics wrong by snapping a three-game skid.

After an encouraging two-point defeat to Collingwood the week prior, the Power came undone in last week’s Showdown, managing just nine goals from a whopping 65 inside 50 entries.

Not to be outdone, the Cats were just as underwhelming, suffering one of the upsets of the season at home to the lowly Fremantle Dockers.

Chris Scott had no real answer for his team’s performance in his milestone game as coach, while the loss was also felt in more ways than one with key Premiership stars Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs suffering hamstring injuries.

Blicavs’ injury is of the more serious nature, placing enormous strain around the ruck for Geelong going forward.

That said, Jeremy Cameron’s form has dropped off over the last month, and while the Cats have plenty of depth to fall back on, Hawkins’ absence couldn’t have come at a worse time.

To complicate matters, Port has been one of the best teams at landing tackles inside 50, which does make them an interesting betting proposition on the road.

The Power haven’t won in Geelong since 2007, but it’s fair to say the Cattery hasn’t been the fortress it once was.

With their top two spot on the line and a comfortable 38-point win to their name over the Cats only two months earlier, Port should respond in a big way.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90

Another instant classic could be on our hands in what might be the most anticipated ‘Battle of the Bridge’ game since its inception.

Arguably the most in-form team in the competition, the Giants are close to a finals lock sitting sixth – Adam Kingsley firmly in the running for Coach of the Year with his side riding a seven-game winning streak.

The Swans also have genuine finals claims – something we couldn’t say six weeks ago.

It’s been a huge week for the Bloods following the retirement of superstar Buddy Franklin, but on the back of a narrow win against Essendon, the Grand Final runners-up are firmly in the hunt for a spot inside the eight.

Looking back, the Giants prevailed 107-106 when these two sides met back in Round 7, Toby Greene starring with four goals and Tom Green racking up 33 disposals and 13 tackles.

Both names have been instrumental in GWS’ turnaround, Toby looking a serious contender for All-Australian captain honours, but also a certainty to cause the Swans some serious headaches this week.

Tom Green is also a good chance to return this week from a hamstring injury, an enormous boost to a Giants midfield that is already firing on all cylinders.

The Swans have been impressive in recent weeks, but a couple of narrow wins over the Dogs and Bombers don’t compare to the resume the Giants have put together recently.

A slow first half against the Bulldogs last week was a concern, but like all good teams do, the Giants still found a way to win.Kingley’s side has been incredibly tough to score against over the last six weeks, and they’ve also been tough to stop on attack – currently ranked fourth in inside 50 entries.

The close nature of this rivalry makes this a tough game to pick, but the little brother Giants are a tough team to knock right now.

Tip: Back the Giants 1-39 @ $2.25

The Dees will have their sights set on a percentage-boosting win this week against a North Melbourne side they beat up on earlier in the year.

Simon Goodwin’s men plastered the Roos to the rune of a 90-point defeat when they met back in April, and based on their form over the last month, it’s no surprise to find the Dees favoured heavily ahead of Sunday’s rematch.

After trailing by eight at the main break, a spirited second half helped prove some critics wrong last week in a 32-point win over Richmond, largely thanks to some clutch goals from Kozzie Pickett in the final term.

North, on the other hand, went to war with fellow cellar-dwellers West Coast, losing by five in Perth despite the best efforts from Nick Larkey and Harry Sheezel.

Looking ahead, most would expect the Dees to dominate, but given this game is going to be played in cold, and potentially wet conditions in Tassie, this could be a potential trap game for punters.

On the road, Melbourne has had some real issues this year, losing at the Gabba, twice at the Adelaide Oval, in Geelong, and up in Darwin.

The Roos have typically saved their best footy for Marvel, but with a huge clash against Carlton ahead next week, there’s a good chance Melbourne might overlook this game with their minds focused elsewhere.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+42.5 Points) @ $1.90

Fifth and seventh meet under the roof on Sunday in what is a huge clash between two sides hoping to launch a late assault on the top four.

Carlton’s resurgence has been nothing short of outstanding over the last six weeks, rattling off as many wins in succession – the most recent over heavy Premiership favourites Collingwood.

Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow have been at the forefront of the turnaround, and they should have revenge in mind after suffering a 22-point loss to the Saints earlier in the year.

Whether St Kilda takes confidence away from that game remains to be seen, but after finally kicking a triple-digit score in last week’s victory over Hawthorn, the Saints might finally be coming good at the right time.

Speaking of scoring, that’s arguably been the most impressive part of Carlton’s game – amassing 14 or more goals in every game of this recent winning streak.

There’s no doubt defensive mastermind Ross Lyon will be cooking up a scheme to combat Curnow, but after tearing apart Collingwood in the second half last week, the Blues almost look unstoppable right now.

Belief is huge at this time of year, and it’s hard to think of a team playing with more confidence right now than Carlton.

Considering the Blues have also given up the third-fewest points in the league, this does shape as a huge challenge for a Saints side with plenty left to prove.

Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90

Top eight is almost out of the question for the Dockers, but they should relish another chance at playing finals spoiler – as they did last week against the Cats in Geelong.

Not for the first time, Freo pulled off a remarkable upset at GMHBA Stadium, Justin Longmuir’s men feasting on the Cats’ inaccuracy in front of goal whilst forcing a handful of turnovers at key stages in the game.

Up next, a Lions side that has everything to prove with a month of footy remaining.

Brisbane suffered its own upset in last week’s Q-Clash against the Suns, question marks still surrounding the Lions’ leadership and their inability to stand up when their backs are against the wall.

In a lot of ways, a trip to Perth can do wonders for a team searching for confidence, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to know which Lions team will show up week to week.

Defensively, Freo was much-improved last week against the Cats, but their previous four losses saw them give up an average of 104 points to the likes of Sydney, Collingwood, Carlton, and the Dogs.

Recent struggles aside, the Lions’ forward line is still one of the best in the competition, not to mention the fact Brisbane put 115 points on Fremantle when they met back in April.

Tip: Lions Over 92.5 Points @ $1.90

2022

Three weeks of home and away footy remains and there’s still plenty left to be determined on the AFL ladder.

A dream clash between Melbourne and Collingwood kicks off the round on Friday night with a big crowd expected at the MCG, followed by a trio of crucial games on Saturday evening, starting with the Dogs and Freo, the Cats and the Saints, and the Tigers looking to keep their top-eight hopes alive against Port.

All eyes then turn to the Gabba on Sunday for a key showdown between Brisbane and Carlton as both sides look to bounce back from respective losses.

The finals picture is set for another shake-up, and we’ve got you covered with analysis ahead of every Round 21 game below!

The Dees will have revenge in mind for the second week in a row after knocking off Fremantle by a convincing 46-point margin last Friday night in Perth.

Three goals each from Bayley Fritsch and Kozzie Pickett saw the reigning premiers avenge their previous loss to the Dockers, and Melbourne fans will be hoping for more of the same against a Collingwood outfit that prevailed by 26 points when they met back in Round 13.

That win was part of Collingwood’s ongoing streak, one that stretched to 10 in a row last week with a narrow victory over Port Adelaide.

The Pies have arguably been the best fourth-quarter team in the competition this year, but they do have some injury concerns with Jeremy Howe suffering a head knock, and Taylor Adams still awaiting scans.

Like last year, the Dees have health on their side, which should come in handy against a Pies team that has been applying relentless tackling pressure all season.

Simon Goodwin’s side will also have a point to prove against another finals contender after losing to Geelong and the Bulldogs over the last month.

A big win on the road over Freo should do wonders for their confidence, but when it comes to playing Collingwood, it’s fair to say the Dees have come off second-best.

The Pies have won four of the last five encounters, and they’ll have the added support of the Collingwood Army in front of what might be the biggest crowd of the season so far.

Narrow wins by no more than a goal over their last three games has to make punters nervous, but the Pies keep finding a way to dig deep and rally when it matters most.

This game will go a long way to determining who finishes second and third, but on form, the Pies covering in another thriller looks the play.

Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90

High-scoring games have become commonplace whenever the Hawks and Suns get together, and there should be no shortage of points up for grabs down in Tassie on Saturday.

The Suns prevailed by a comfortable 67-point margin when they took on the Hawks up in Darwin earlier in the year, a game that saw Mabior Chol and Malcolm Rosas finish with three goals each.

Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Suns since then, but they still have a chance to cap off a remarkable year with some wins over bottom-ranked clubs, much like they did last week in their three-point thriller over West Coast.

At the same time, the Hawks are also hoping to build towards next year and test themselves against another club that was once in finals contention.

Hawthorn came close to upsetting St Kilda last week with a late surge, but enough damage had already been done after trailing by plenty in the first quarter.

As already mentioned, the scoreboard has received a workout when these two sides have met in the past. The last four games have all gone Over the Total, but you do have to factor in the wet weather in Tassie that has been forecast right throughout the week.

With both sides struggling to play out a full four quarters at the best of times, and Hawthorn suffering a key injury to star forward Mitch Lewis, this one might be a bit more low-scoring.

Tip: Under the Points Total

The Giants and the Bombers have put on some classics in recent times with the ledger sitting firmly in favour of the home side.

The last three contests between these two sides have been decided by no more than two goals, all of which have been won by the Giants.

Unfortunately, GWS’ recent form isn’t quite so pretty, the Giants having now lost four in a row after suffering a disheartening loss to the rival Swans last week that saw them kick only five goals.

On the flip side, the Bombers are making a bold push for the top half of the bottom eight with four wins from their last five.

After losing on the siren to the Pies, Peter Wright starred in last week’s demolition job over North Melbourne, while overall, Essendon’s pressure and basic attack has been much-improved on earlier efforts.

It feels as though Ben Rutten has done enough to keep his job safe heading into 2023, but there’s far from the same certainty at GWS with interim coach Mark McVeigh stating that his players had embarrassed the club last week.

The Giants’ overall effort and body language on the field has been lacking since the dismissal of Leon Cameron, and from a betting standpoint, it’s hard to see them winning another game this season.

Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

Another high-stakes game has been set at Marvel on Saturday night with plenty on the line for both clubs.

Fremantle’s poor showing in wet conditions at home to Melbourne was a worrying sign for a team that once looked a top-four lock, but perhaps more concerning for coach Justin Longmuir has been his teams’ complete lack of scoring over the last few weeks.

Not for the first time, the Dogs also face a must-win game now sitting four points adrift from St Kilda in 10th.

There’s no shame in losing to the Cats in Geelong, but the Dogs were again their own worst enemy blowing a healthy three-goal lead at quarter-time with some basic accuracy woes.

On the plus side, Luke Beveridge has to be happy with the way his side performed around the stoppages, while the Dogs also managed to apply plenty of pressure inside their back-half early on.

Neither team fills you with much confidence at this point in the season, but statistically, the Dogs do look a safer bet averaging nearly four more scoring shots a game, and six more inside 50s compared to Fremantle.

The Dockers probably have the edge defensively, but they’ll be lacking some extra class with skipper Nat Fyfe still on the sideline.

You could also argue the Dogs have much more to play for with their season virtually on the line, and given they’ve played to a 7-5 record on the back of a loss, they look to be the play.

Tip: Back the Dogs 1-39 @ $2.10

The Cats are the envy of almost every side in the competition as they prepare for yet another home game this week against the Saints.

In terms of recent form, Chris Scott’s side appears to have lengths on the rest of the competition, even if last week’s big win over the Dogs was a little ugly at times.

For those counting, the Cats have now won 10 in a row dating back to May, with their last loss coming to this same St Kilda outfit in one of the games of the season at Marvel.

It’s doubtful either coach will spend too much time reflecting on the past, but it’s fair to say the Cats probably would have won if they didn’t allow a late third-quarter goal burst.

To their credit, St Kilda did extremely well to win the clearances though, while Paddy Ryder and Max King had free reign at times combining for five goals.

Even so, the Cats have improved drastically since then, and their ball movement and basic discipline makes them the team to beat heading into the finals.

In terms of motivation, the Saints have much more to play for, which does make them an intriguing bet with a healthy +33.5 point head start.

Like so many other clubs, St Kilda hasn’t won in Geelong since 1999, but given they have been one of the tougher clubs to score against this year in terms of average goals allowed, they might be able to limit Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron and at least make a contest of this.

Tip: Back St Kilda to Cover the Line (+33.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Tigers have roared back into finals contention with a nail-biting win over the Lions last week, but that result has come at a cost with star defender Dylan Grimes suffering a hamstring injury.

Richmond’s fight-back from 30-points down was a true testament to the heart of the yellow and black, and although there’s still plenty of work to do, the Tigers can feel good knowing they now enter a very favourable stretch of schedule.

That said, a trip to the Adelaide Oval is never easy, and nobody knows that better than Richmond supporters.

The ‘Tiges have lost three of their last five games to Port at their home ground, but they did get the last laugh winning by 12 at the MCG back in Round 13.

The status of Dustin Martin remains a complete unknown, but his absence shouldn’t worry Tiger fans too much given Tom Lynch, Shai Bolton, and emerging star Noah Cumberland’s recent goal-kicking form.

For the Power, there’s nothing left to play for at this point, but you do sense this is the one club that could play spoiler over the remaining three weeks.

Port has come extremely close to causing an upset over Melbourne, Geelong, and Collingwood over the last three weeks, form that has left the bookies no other choice but to install the Power as favourites.

Diving in at the current quote feels risky given what’s on the line for Richmond, but when you factor in the last three games between these two have been decided by no more than two goals, a line bet does look the safest play.

Tip: Alternate Line – Richmond +13.5 @ $1.72

The Swans have a chance to prove a point this week against current wooden spoon favourites North Melbourne.

John Longmire’s side was deadly in last week’s clash against GWS, storming home to a dominant 73-point victory thanks to a big day from Isaac Heeney and Buddy Franklin.

The importance of a win this week can’t be overstated with a top four spot all but a certainty, but this is also somewhat of a revenge game for the Swans after holding on to win by only 11 points against North back in April.

Of course, a lot has happened since then, particularly on Arden Street with the Roos firing David Noble and managing just one win since.

Struggling to hit the scoreboard, the Roos have reverted back to their old ways over the last fortnight in blowout losses to Hawthorn and Essendon, and they certainly won’t find this any easier against a Swans outfit that has allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the competition.

Playing at Marvel has been a real issue for Sydney in recent times though, as we’ve seen this year with losses to the Dogs and Carlton.

That isn’t to say we’re in for a massive North Melbourne upset, but after cutting it close last time they met, the line is very appealing.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+47.5 Points) @ $2.00

A matchup between the Lions and Blues hasn’t been this highly-anticipated since the two met in their famous Elimination Final at the Gabba back in 2009.

This isn’t do-or-die, but there’s plenty at stake again on Sunday afternoon with both clubs not only looking to make up for respective losses but also trying to hold ground on the ladder.

Brisbane’s hoodoo at the MCG continued with an agonising loss to Richmond last week, one that has cast plenty of doubt over the legitimacy of the club come finals time.

The Lions were the better team for three quarters, but injuries to Zac Bailey and Jarrod Berry made it tough in the late stages, while they didn’t help their cause by missing a couple of easy shots late in the fourth term.

As for the Blues, there were fewer excuses.

Carlton was blown out of the water early on against the Crows, a loss that might just be the reality check Michael Voss’ side needed as they now sit precariously in 7th spot on the ladder.

The “Voss vs his old club” storyline adds another element of drama to this matchup, and there’s sure to be a big crowd on hand at the Gabba to witness it.

As far as betting goes, the Lions are always a tough team to back against when they play at home, while they’ve also got recent history on their side with back-to-back wins over Carlton.

On the injury front, things are even grimmer for Carlton with defender Nic Newman suffering a cut to his knee last week, adding to an injury list that also features Matt Kennedy and small forward, Corey Durdin.

The Lions are still awaiting news on Bailey, but up forward, there were signs of encouragement with Eric Hipwood stepping up in the loss to the Tigers.

You could make a case that either team will win this game, but after Carlton’s lack of effort around the contest last week, the Lions should be able to bounce back here and move a step closer to returning to the top four.

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.10

A somewhat meaningless battle between West Coast and Adelaide wraps up the round with nothing more than bragging rights on the line.

The Crows will be eager to build on last week’s shock win over Carlton with a big victory on the road, while a win for the Eagles could also prove important currently tied on points with wooden spoon favourites, North Melbourne.

These two clubs have met once already this year, Adelaide prevailing by 31 points with Darcy Fogarty, Shane McAdam, and Tex Walker sharing in the goal-scoring spoils.

Wins have proven hard to come by for both teams this year, but if you had to back one team to win, you’d have to side with Adelaide – despite the fact they haven’t beaten the Eagles in Perth since 2016.

The Crows fell only five points shy to red-hot Collingwood three weeks ago, and although they’ve struggled to hit the scoreboard at times, they’ve still been the best team in the competition when it comes to tackling.

West Coast will take plenty away from their close call against the Suns last week, but this Crows team brings another challenge entirely in terms of pressure.

Tip: Back the Crows to Win @ $1.73

2021

The AFL heads back to Victoria this week, bringing a strange sense of normalcy to the fixture due to the ongoing situation in Queensland.

Crowds still aren’t expected for the majority of games, but that won’t dampen a huge nine-game slate that features two top-eight blockbusters on Sunday and Monday.

The finals race continues to heat up as Essendon, Richmond, Carlton and St Kilda all face must-win games, while the top of the table could also be in for a shake-up with the Cats battling the Giants on Friday night.

For our best bets ahead of all nine games, check out our Round 21 Preview below!

The top of the ladder is again in focus this week as the Cats look to knock off the Giants for first place on Friday night.

Geelong extended its winning streak to five last week with a 20-point win over North Melbourne, although it’s fair to say Chris Scott’s side had a little more than they originally bargained for against a resilient Kangaroos outfit.

Like always, the Giants also come into this game with plenty to play for.

Leon Cameron’s men find themselves outside the eight again following a blowout loss to Port Adelaide on Sunday, and given their remaining run home, a finals spot looks far from a guarantee.

Not surprisingly, the Cats have been installed as heavy favourites in this contest with the added luxury of home-field advantage.

The Giants actually picked up a win over the Cats at GMHBA back in 2019, but with Jacob Hopper and Phil Davis in some doubt after suffering respective head injuries last week, a repeat performance looks tough.

Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $1.91

Just when we wrote them off, the Blues find themselves back in back in the finals race following a 31-point scalp over St Kilda last week.

Carlton sits only four points adrift of the eight with three games to play, and they look a good chance to make up further ground with a game against the struggling Suns ahead on Saturday.

At one point the Gold Coast was also in the hunt for the eight, but performances like last week’s 98-point loss to Melbourne reminded everyone that the Suns still have a long way to go.

The Blues have been a very unpredictable side, as we saw a fortnight ago in their blowout loss to North Melbourne.

That said, the Suns have given up 120 points in back-to-back games, which spells potential disaster after Coleman Medal favourite Harry McKay ravaged the Saints for five goals last week.

With three straight wins to their name over the Suns, including an 11-point nail-biter earlier in Round 4, the Blues look a good bet to keep their season alive if they can find that same production up forward.

Tip: Back Carlton to Win & Over 167.5 Total Points @ $2.30

The Tigers can’t afford another loss if they hold any hope of playing finals footy for the fifth year in a row.

Richmond has now suffered back-to-back defeats following a narrow four-point loss to Fremantle last week.

One win could put the Tigers right back on track, but it’s fair to say Saturday’s game is far from a given against a feisty North Melbourne side playing with a point to prove.

The Roos hung tight last week with the Cats before fading away in the final term.

Playing a full four quarters has been North’s downfall for most of the year, but they should fancy themselves against a Richmond outfit that has battled similar problems since the beginning of the season.

From a betting standpoint, this game is tough to get a feel for. Given the circumstances, the Tigers should bounce-back and keep their season alive, but their lack of efficiency in front of goal last week makes them nerve-racking bet moving forward.

On the opposite side, the Roos have been the best team to bet on at the line this year, covering in 13 of their 19 games so far.

This is a very narrow spread, but if they can start fast and also force the Tigers into some mistakes, this game isn’t beyond them.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+12.5 Points) @ $1.90

Showdown 50 promises to be a spectacle on Saturday night as the Crows and Port meet for the second time this year.

The season was over a long time ago for Adelaide, but this is still a vitally important game for the Power as they look to cement their top four spot with three games remaining.

Port walked away with a comfortable 49-point win when these two sides met back in Round 8 as Travis Boak, Robbie Gray and Ollie Wines proved too much for Adelaide to handle.

The Crows have battled through injury to win only three games since, while their performance last week against the Dogs last week was forgettable at best.

Port, on the other hand, will be riding the momentum of a big win over GWS that saw Ken Hinkley’s men dominate through the midfield on their way to a strong four-goal final quarter.

Preventing goals has been a real problem recently for the Crows, particularly against this Port Adelaide side.

The last three Showdown’s have all gone in the favour of Port by more than 40 points, and with the Crows still battered and bruised, another blowout looks likely.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 40+ @ $2.15

The Saints’ rollercoaster took another turn last week with a third straight loss to the Blues.

St Kilda’s finals hopes are still alive by the faintest pulse, but another loss to the red-hot Swans on Saturday night would all but put a line through their chances.

Sydney, meanwhile, comes into this game hoping to remain in touch with the top four.

The Swans rattled off their fifth straight win last week in a thriller over Essendon but still remain four points adrift from Port Adelaide on the ladder.

Fortunately, the sight of the Saints will come as a welcome side for head coach John Longmire after his side held on for a nine-point win when they back in Round 12.

To be fair, St Kilda put in a brave effort that day, but the same problem that has plagued them all season, goal-kicking, proved the decider in the end.

Shaun Higgins missed three chances to put the Saints in front late in the game, and it’s fair to say the same kind of mistakes will be punished by a Swans team that has only grown stronger with confidence.

The fact this game is being played at Marvel does play into St Kilda’s hands a little when you factor in Sydney’s struggles on the road at times this season.

That said, the favourite has won each of the last 13 games between these two sides, and so long as the Saints continue to be their own worst enemy, it’s hard to see them knocking off a genuine flag contender.

Tip: Back the Swans 1-39 @ $2.10

There’s no love lost between Hawthorn and Collingwood and that will again be the case on Sunday when both sides meet in Tassie.

The Hawks remain at their home away from home following a brilliant win against the Lions last week, one that had to have done departing head coach Alastair Clarkson proud in his final month at the helm.

Collingwood was equally impressive in their demolition job over West Coast, a result that has to leave Magpie fans feeling pretty good about where the club is headed.

For Hawthorn, this is another important game as far as the wooden spoon race is concerned, while the Pies will simply be looking to win back-to-back games for the first time since Nathan Buckley departed the club.

As far as betting goes, the market says it all. There is absolutely nothing separating these two teams head-to-head, making this by far one of the toughest games to try and pick this weekend.

Given the magnitude of this fixture, it’s worth noting the Pies have never traveled to face Hawthorn in Tassie, which is worth factoring in when you consider how tough the Hawks play down south.

The absence of Luke Breust will be felt immensely in the Hawthorn forward line, but after Chad Wingard, Mitch Lewis, Jaeger O’Meara and Dylan Moore all stood tall last week for Clarko, the Hawks might have enough to make it back-to-back wins.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Win @ $1.90

The top of the table Bulldogs meet the top-eight hopeful Bombers on Sunday in a game that holds plenty of weight as far as the ladder is concerned.

Essendon has suffered back-to-back losses to GWS and Sydney heading in, but such is the nature of the 2021 season that the Bombers still find themselves within reach of playing finals.

The Dogs, meanwhile, are looking to establish a cushion between themselves and the second-placed Cats atop the ladder.

Luke Beveridge’s side recorded a statement win last week over the Crows to make it three on the trot, while they’ve also held the wood over the Dons recently with six consecutive wins dating back to 2016.

Another loss for the Bombers would be devastating to their final chances this week, especially following a very competitive effort against a serious flag contender like the Swans last Sunday.

Unfortunately, Essendon has been dealt another serious injury blow with skipper Dyson Heppell and Kyle Langford both suffering injuries last week.

Both look likely to sit out this week, leaving the Bombers at a serious disadvantage when it comes to leadership and overall talent on the park.

The Bulldogs are humming along nicely right now and it’s hard to see them coming undone after kicking a whopping 34 goals across their last two games.

Essendon should give this a red-hot crack with their season on the line, but this spells more heartache for Bomber fans with a couple of their stars missing.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-22.5 Points) @ $1.90

No Nat Fyfe proved no problem for the Dockers last week as they fought back to defeat the Tigers by four points in a thriller over in Perth.

The result has left the injury riddled Dockers sitting eighth on the ladder with three games to play, a surprise turn of events for a team that looked dead and buried following the injury to their skipper a fortnight ago.

In Brisbane, things have taken a much different turn after Chris Fagan’s side suffered a disappointing defeat to Hawthorn in Tassie.

Brisbane did well to fight back and make a contest of it late in the game, but the lethargic effort showed in the first three quarters has cast plenty of doubt around the Lions’ premiership chances.

To make matters even worse, the Lions remain on the road as they look to improve on a below average 5-6 record away from home.

On the plus side, the Lions are locked in to play finals from here, but nothing is going to come easy against a Freo side that has really tightened up defensively over their last two games.

A good old fashioned Chris Fagan rev-up could change all of that though, and this certainly isn’t the first time the Lions have had their backs against the wall this season.

They need to start this game like they finished off last week, but with a decent 4-3 record at the line following a loss, the Lions should get the job done.

Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90

Two wins from their last five games has left the Eagles in a vicarious position with less than a month to play.

West Coast is desperately clinging to its spot inside the eight after suffering a demoralising loss to Collingwood last week, and they won’t feel particularly good about Monday’s game against a Demons team that just belted the Suns by 98 points.

Melbourne also has a lot to play if they hope to secure a top two spot.

The Dees sit two points behind Geelong and the Bulldogs in third, making this a must-win game as they venture to Perth for the first time all season.

Simon Goodwin’s side has been very tough to beat on the road this year, but the fact they’ve lost their last three games against West Coast in Perth dating back to 2018 is worth factoring in.

The Eagles aren’t used to playing as the underdog at home, and there is a bit to like about them after coming under fire all week for their lazy effort against Collingwood last Sunday.

Adam Simpson has plenty to mull over during the week in regards to selections, but with their spot in the eight on the line and a crowd also expected, the Eagles keeping this game close isn’t as absurd as it might seem.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90

2019

It’s a make or break kinda round for the Bombers, Bulldogs and Dockers, which makes this week’s tips even more difficult to try and predict.

Sunday’s top eight clash between West Coast and Adelaide from Perth also holds huge ladder implications as the Eagles look to potentially seize the top spot from Geelong.

We’ve analysed all nine games and our complete 2019 AFL Round 21 Preview can be found below.

https://youtu.be/Z5CsGY2rjzg

There’s plenty on the line for GWS as they look to add to their three-game winning streak.

The Giants could still make the top four if results go their way, but Leon Cameron’s side needs to lift after surviving a scare against the Swans last week.

Speaking of scares, that’s about all the Hawks could muster last week against North Melbourne. Hawthorn led by three goals at quarter time, only to manage five more goals in the game in their 22-point loss.

The Hawks are set to miss the finals for only the second time in the last decade, but you can expect Alastair Clarkson’s side to show plenty of fight this week on the road.

Hawthorn toyed with the Giants back in Round 8 winning comfortably by 32-points, although it’s worth noting the Hawks are yet to record a win against the Giants on the road.

GWS should win this game if they can win the midfield battle and also force the Hawks into skill errors – much like the Kangaroos did last week.

Even so, the bookies have set a reasonably low Total for this game, which appears to be the safest play. The average Total of Giants home games this season has been 178 points, putting the Overs into play this week.

Tip: Over 143.5 Total Points

https://youtu.be/AE3mILUQaII

Collingwood stumbled for a brief moment during the first quarter against the Suns last week before going on to register a much-needed 69-point win.

The Pies hold little hope of reclaiming a spot back inside the top four, but Saturday’s game against the hapless Demons should be a nice little percentage booster with the added chance of improving to fifth on the ladder.

Melbourne has plenty to be proud of after a strong first half against the Tigers, but Richmond proved too much in the second going on to win comfortably by 33-points.

The last two meetings between these two sides have hardly been memorable, with Collingwood winning both by an average margin of 41 points.

Collingwood met the Demons back in Round 12, a game Melbourne dominated on the stat sheet. Unfortunately, Simon Goodwin’s side struggled to find an answer to Jordan De Goey, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jaidyn Stephenson – all of which booted a three-goal bag.

The Pies have now won three straight over the Demons dating back to 2017, and although the injury list has grown longer with the loss of Mason Cox, they should have no trouble covering what appears to be a generous line.

Melbourne could keep things close in the first half, but like last week, the second half should let them down again. The Dees have won the fewest second halves this season, compared to the Pies, who booted eight goals in the second half last week.

Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/vhlJkFL9E5A

Port Adelaide head home this week with plenty of work to do should they hope to play finals.

Last week’s huge win over the Bombers was a nice start, but Ken Hinkley’s side will need to ensure they treat the Swans with caution on Saturday afternoon.

Sydney lost a two-point nail-biter last week to the Giants – a game the Swans really should have won. Issac Heeney was brilliant in front of goal, and although the Swans will now miss the finals for the first time since 2009, you can expect Sydney to try and end the season on a high note.

Port has won two straight over the Swans, both of which came at the SCG. It’s also worth noting the Swans haven’t travelled to Adelaide Oval to face the Power since 2015.

Despite their 9-10 record, Port has quietly been the best inside 50 side in the competition this year. The Power dominated that area of the ground last week against the Bombers, and with the Swans averaging the second-most inside ’50s to opponents this year, it spells trouble for the Bloods.

In their four home wins this year, Port has only won by an average margin of 20 points. The Power’s last two wins over the Swans have come by no more than 30-points, so it’s worth backing Port in the Margin market.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $1.98

https://youtu.be/nHVSwL0Yy7w

Plenty are painting Brisbane as a serious Grand Final chance following their seventh straight win last week over the Bulldogs.

There’s a lot to like about the Lions, but Chris Fagan won’t be happy with his sides lack of composure in the fourth quarter last week.

Brisbane led by five goals at the halftime break, only to allow the Bulldogs to sneak back into the game with a six-goal third quarter. The Lions still went on to win by 28-points, but if Brisbane is to contend for a flag, they can’t afford to take their foot off the gas from here on out.

The Suns are the last team that should trouble the Lions, but this line looks a little wide between two sides that have played out some classics in recent years.

Before Brisbane’s 49-point win over the Gold Coast back in Round 6, the previous two Q-Clashes were decided by no more than five points. The Suns have nothing left to play for, but as we’ve seen against the Bombers and the Pies over the last fortnight, Gold Coast is capable of keeping the game close for three quarters.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+50.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/eCN_hCOoE1w

Seventh plays 10^th on Saturday night in a game that could determine the finals landscape for good.

This might be the final chance for the Dogs following last week’s disappointment up in Brisbane. Luke Beveridge’s side came out flat and uninspired to open the game, but the good news is, the understrength Bombers might be easy prey.

Essendon’s injury woes hit a new low during the week with the loss of Matt Guelfi to a season-ending knee injury.

Guelfi now joins Joe Daniher, Tom Bellchambers, Michael Hurley and Andrew Saad on the injured list, leaving the Bombers looking well under the odds as the favourites this week.

Leadership was clearly missing from the Dons during last week’s 59-point belting at the hands of Port Adelaide. The good news is Dyson Heppell could potentially return, but his inclusion alone won’t be enough to stop the Dogs’ fierce midfield.

Lost in last week’s loss to the Lions was Jack Macrae’s seventh consecutive game of 30+ disposals. He alone could wreak havoc on the Bombers and considering the Dogs have won their last four games over Essendon, everything points towards a Bulldogs upset.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win @ $1.95

https://youtu.be/qkhpcmuzL_0

Things are trending south at The Cattery right now as Geelong slumped to its fourth loss last week since the bye.

This time, Fremantle proved too much for the Cats in Perth – although the game was certainly up for grabs at half time with the Dockers leading by only three points.

North Melbourne would need a miracle to make the finals from here, but they certainly boosted their confidence with a thrilling win over the Hawks last week at Marvel.

The Roos allowed five unanswered goals in the first quarter, right before new head coach Rhyce Shaw switched things up at quarter time. North went on to win comfortably by 22-points, although they still find themselves four points short of a spot back inside the eight.

Despite their shortcomings since the bye, home-field advantage should work in Geelong’s favour this week. The Cats haven’t lost to the Roos in Geelong since 2015 and have since then compiled a tidy four-game winning streak.

Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-22.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/CpunxT3KWYY

Fremantle’s 34-point win over the Cats last week was enough to keep their faint finals hopes alive heading into Sunday’s game against the Saints.

The Dockers are tied on points with Port and the Bulldogs on the ladder, and they should feel confident heading into this game knowing they beat St. Kilda by five points back in Round 3 at Optus Stadium.

At one-point Fremantle looked destined to play finals, but after a midseason slump due to injuries, suddenly a few question marks have started to pop up.

If you take a look at Fremantle’s win last week over the Cats, you’ll notice just efficient they were with the ball. The Dockers dominated the inside 50 count by a wide margin, and also outmuscled Geelong for 40 more disposals.

St. Kilda has found a new lease on life since the firing of Alan Richardson, but keep in mind, Freo has found some success in Melbourne this year.

With everything to play for and the future of coach Ross Lyon still on the line, back the Dockers to win this one outright.

Tip: Back Fremantle to Win @ $2.18

https://youtu.be/R4iF9HdxFxI

Suddenly the Tigers look like the Richmond of old as they set their sights on a seventh straight win.

Damien Hardwick’s side survived a first-half scare last week against the Demons to go on and win comfortably by 33-points, and although the Blues have proven themselves as no easy-beat, it’s tough to fade the Tigers on Sunday afternoon.

Carlton turned up for the contest last week against the reigning premiers, but the Eagles proved too strong in the second quarter thanks to some brilliant footy from Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli.

The Blues had no answer for West Coast’s top stars, which doesn’t spell good news as they prepare to face Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt.

Both Dusty and Jack have combined for 14 goals over their last five games against the Blues and considering the Blues haven’t defeated Richmond since the 2013 elimination final, it’s worth playing it safe at the line.

Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-34.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/Sg3GnXWo05g

Sunday afternoon’s battle between the birds holds plenty in store from Optus Stadium.

For West Coast, a win and a Geelong loss would see the Eagles back on top of the ladder. The Crows, meanwhile, are simply hoping to widen the gap between themselves and the ninth-place Power on the ladder.

These two sides have met once already this year back in Round 10, a game the Eagles won by 12-points at Adelaide Oval. Jamie Cripps, Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling all booted three goals each, while the Crows failed to find the same production from their forward line.

Adelaide has been one of the most inconsistent sides all season, particularly at home where they’ve won only five of their 10 games this season. Unfortunately for the Crows, their road form hasn’t been much better – in fact, Adelaide hasn’t won against the Eagles in Perth since 2016.

The Eagles are hitting their stride nicely ahead of the finals, while the Crows still shape up as pretenders.

West Coast has covered the line in two of its last three games as the home favourite against the Crows, so back the Eagles to win this one easily.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-25.5 Points) @ $1.90

2018

Richmond might be home and hosed, but as for the rest, it’s anyone’s guess.

The Top 8 is a cluster, and there’s still no clarity when it comes to the finals picture.

With five teams fighting to keep their spot in the eight, it’s now or never for the likes of the Swans and Port Adelaide, while Geelong and North Melbourne need everything to go their way as they look on from outside the eight.

So are we in for another round of thrillers and controversy?

Be sure to bang it below and check out all of our AFL Round 21 tips to find out!

It was curtains for the Bombers’ finals hopes last week against the Hawks, but despite the loss to one of their biggest rivals, there’s still plenty to salvage from this lost season.

Essendon’s cracking effort last week certainly didn’t go unnoticed.

The Bombers were fantastic all game long, but it was the individual efforts that really stood out.

Cale Hooker, Conor McKenna, Jake Stringer and Mark Baguley were all phenomenal for the Dons, and although this rebuild has taken a lifetime, the future is bright for the Bombers.

Speaking of the future, the same can’t be said for the Saints.

Last week marked St. Kilda’s 14th loss of the season, but nobody expected Alan Richardson’s side to look so flat against an evenly matched opponent like the Bulldogs.

St. Kilda once again fell apart during the crucial stages of the game, allowing the Dogs to fight back from a four goal opening deficit to lost by a whopping 35-points.

Looking forward to this twilight affair, this is the Bombers’ to lose.

Now that Essendon are healthy, they should have this one, especially if you consider a depleted Bulldogs backline managed to limit St. Kilda full forward Tim Membrey to just one goal last week.

The Saints have hardly looked up to the challenge against any team inside the Top 8 this year, but now they face not only one of the most ferocious teams when it comes to pressure and clearances, but also one of the best fourth quarter sides in the competition.

Keep the ball in Dyson Heppell and McDonald-Tipungwuti’s hands and chip it over the top to Stringer and Orazio Fantasia – that should be the Dons’ strategy in a nutshell.

And, of course, it should also result in a pretty nasty Friday night blowout.

Tip: Back Essendon 40+ @ $2.26

Same Game Multi: Essendon 40+, Total Goals Over 25.5 ($1.83)

These games are always must-watch, down-to-the-wire affairs, but the circumstances are a little different this time around.

Normally by this point in the season, Hawthorn and Geelong sit somewhere toward the Top 4, and although the Hawks find themselves fifth on the ladder, this might be the Cats last hurrah if they wish to play finals footy.

In case you missed it, Hawthorn prevailed in a classic last week against the Bombers.

It was back and forth all day, but Hawthorn’s prowess, particularly in the midfield, won them the game.

What was impressive from Hawthorn was their “bend but don’t break” demeanor.

As we just mentioned, Essendon are a top fourth quarter team, but the Hawks fought off a strong last minute challenge from the Bombers to reclaim momentum behind some strong play from Ben Stratton and 19-year old standout, James Worpel.

Geelong, well they too know all about fourth quarters.

The Cats were on the wrong end of last weekends game against the reigning premiers, but if Gary Ablett kicks straight, we’re probably not even having this conversation.

For the most part, that’s been the theme for Geelong.

There’s been some unlucky moments and some basic brain fades, as the Cats have more often than not had to fight back from the back-foot for most of the year.

So where does that leave us ahead of the next chapter in this epic rivalry?

Round 2’s one-point thriller was perhaps the game of the season, but it was dominated by Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett.

Those three were huge for the Cats last time out, but the Hawks still walked away with the points.

Obviously, those three names must fire if Geelong are to win, but most importantly, they need to contain Tom Mitchell.

The Brownlow favourite went un-tagged for most of last weeks victory over the Bombers, but he punished Essendon to the tune of 43 disposals.

There’s so many players to keep an eye on in this Hawthorn outfit, and although this game should be close, even if you figure out a way to shut down Mitchell, guys like Jaeger O’Meara and Issac Smith can step up.

Hawthorn would like to finish Top 4, but they’d like to put a dagger in Geelong’s season.

Play it safe and take the Hawks at the line.

Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn To Win ($2.20), Total Match Points 151-160 ($5.75)

You hate to call any game a “cakewalk”, but the odds really tell the full story here.

The reigning premiers were taken to the sword by the Cats last week, but prevailed in nail-biting circumstances.

It’s safe to say the Tigers will enjoy their trip to the Gold Coast on Saturday, as this is the first time in a long time Richmond hasn’t had to play on a prime-time stage.

If the Suns are to pull off a miracle win here at home, they’ll need to crack down on last weeks major issues.

A 96-point loss to the Demons was just the beginning, as Peter Wright’s knee injury now places the goal-kicking burden squarely on Alex Sexton’s shoulders.

Since Richmond are the class of competition, don’t expect the Tigers to underestimate the Suns.

They did that a month ago against the Giants, resulting in a narrow two-point loss on the road.

Speaking of away games, this is also a chance for Richmond to prove something to their critics.

The Tigers are the favourites for a reason, but their winless interstate record this season is telling for a club that holds the MCG wins record.

The Tigers need to be wary of “just show up” attitude that got them in trouble against the Giants, but fortunately, this injury riddled, understrength Suns side is no threat to the yellow and black.

Tip: No Bet

The Eagles got their season back on track last week against the Dockers, but the aftermath has been a storm of controversy.

Andrew Gaff’s knockout punch on Andrew Brayshaw during last weeks derby was nothing short of horrifying, and although we all wish Brayshaw a speedy recovery, the Eagles now carry on without one of their key players.

At the time of this writing, it’s unclear the extent of Gaff’s suspension, but it’s likely he misses the rest of the year including finals.

For a side already down Josh Kennedy and Nic Naitanui, that’s one serious blow.

To keep the controversy going, Port Adelaide also have some issues of their own to take up with the AFL.

Josh Jenkins’ last minute goal during Showdown 45 sent the Crows home winners last week, but the snap on goal actually hit the post.

Perhaps it’s only fitting these two clubs meet up this week – aside from last weeks circumstances, this should be a lot closer than Round 7’s blowout affair.

The Eagles an extra gear amidst the chaos last week, and with so many big names missing, it was encouraging to see Jamie Cripps, Liam Ryan and Jack Darling combine for 11 goals.

The Power, on the other hand, well they will feel confident knowing full well they have one important factor on their side this week: home field advantage.

The Adelaide Oval was hardly a fortress for Port last week, but with their spot in the eight potentially on the line, expect the Power to get up for this.

West Coast looked ordinary two weeks ago in Ballarat against North Melbourne, and if Port can control the midfield battle behind Ollie Wines and Chad Wingard, this game should be theirs.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.06

Same Game Multi: Port Adelaide 1-39, Under 150.5 Points ($1.88)

The last time these two met it was an instant classic, and on the back of two heartbreaking losses, the Pies and the Lions look to get back to winning ways.

Keeping in mind all of Collingwood’s injuries, the Pies did well to hang tough with the Swans at the SCG last week.

The Magpies fought back from 20-points down to give Sydney a real scare in the final term, but the Pies failed to man up in the dying stages of the game to give themselves a chance.

Brisbane, well it was basically the same story.

The Lions sputtered and choked during the third quarter, but Brisbane came all the way back to be within one kick of winning the game.

That one kick should have gone through the goal posts, but No.1 overall draft pick, Cameron Rayner, opted for a round the body banana rather than a drop punt, only to boot the ball through for a behind.

It was a tough lesson for both clubs last week, but Collingwood need to regroup in a hurry if they have any hope of finishing inside the Top 2.

The Pies nearly toppled the Swans, but there’s no looking past the fact Buddy Franklin booted six goals on the night.

That kind of thing shouldn’t happen when you win the clearance and contested possession battle, but it only highlights how weak the Magpies back line is at the moment.

Of course, the Lions don’t feature anyone of Franklin’s prowess, but there’s no denying Eric Hipwood, Rayner and even Dayne Zorko can boot a bag on any given occasion.

Throw in the fact Brisbane often turn up to Etihad ready to play, and you have a big chance of an upset, and a little Lions revenge, ahead on Saturday.

Tip: Back Brisbane Lions To Win @ $3.60

Same Game Multi: Lions To Win, Under 185.5 Total Points ($1.87)

Make no mistake, GWS are serious contenders now.

The Giants earned their fourth straight victory last weekend, defeating Carlton in blowout fashion.

The win sent GWS up to third on the ladder, and with the up and about Crows up next, it looks as though we have a Saturday night blockbuster on our hands.

It’s safe to say this game would be better suited to Spotless or Adelaide Oval, but the somewhat neutral turf of UNSW Canberra will have to do.

Not to worry, the Giants still enter this game as the favourites, but they do have some injury concerns to address ahead of the weekend.

Toby Greene, Brett Deledio and Dawson Simpson all left the ground during last week’s 105-point win over the Blues, casting a small cloud of doubt over one of the leagues up and coming premiership favourites.

As for the Crows, the footy gods smiled upon thee last week as Josh Jenkins’ behind was ruled a goal.

The umpiring blunder let Adelaide off the hook in the Showdown against Port Adelaide, but importantly kept their season alive for one more week.

Having only met 10-weeks ago, the Crows will be out for revenge on their 16-point loss to the Giants back in Round 11.

They only need to refer back to last years Qualifying Final win to get a grasp on the right game plan though, as Adelaide pumped the Giants by 36-points last season.

It’s likely the Giants will welcome back star forward Jeremy Cameron this week, only making life tougher for the Crows.

Adelaide will feel confident knowing Jenkins is in goal-scoring form however, and Matt Crouch’s 35 disposals last week should only help to calm any further nerves.

We’ve been saying “do or die” about the Crows for a month now, but they continue to hang around.

With the Giants likely to enter this game minus a few stars, Adelaide should find themselves closer to the eight.

Tip: Back Adelaide Crows To Win @ $2.80

Same Game Multi: Crows To Win, Adelaide Crows Goal 1st Scoring Play ($3.60)

Just when it looked like the wayward Bulldogs would be hard pressed to record another win this year, they go and pull off a big one against the Saints last week.

It certainly helped having Jackson Macrae back in the side, but for the talk surrounding the Dogs and goal-kicking this year, it was nice to see Luke Beveridge’s side kick more goals than they did behinds for a change.

Kicking goals has hardly been a challenge for North Melbourne, but boy were the Roos lucky last week.

If Cam Rayner kicks that last second goal in the fourth quarter, this is a totally different conversation, one that potentially involves North missing the finals.

Still, here we are, and while only one of these teams actually has something to play for, this could still turn into quite the chippy affair at Etihad on Sunday afternoon.

The last time these teams met was back in Round 14, a game the Roos held on to win by two-points.

The Bulldogs were much healthier back then, but they do still feature two of their key game changers in Marcus Bontempelli and Jason Johannisen ahead of this weekend.

Both of those guys were rather quiet last time out for the Dogs, so look for Beveridge to come up with some kind of plan to get them more involved this week.

Down the other end, the Dogs other problem is Ben Brown, Jack Ziebell and Majak Daw, three players that played a massive role during the Roos’ win over the Lions.

It’s very likely the Dogs can challenge North on attack, but it’s unlikely they have the defenders to keep the Roos’ big three quiet all day.

Don’t let the Bulldogs win last week fool you, they trailed by a wide margin after the first quarter, and if red, white and blue start slow from the gate again, it will cost them against this North outfit.

Tip: Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.12

Same Game Multi: North Melbourne 1-39, Western Bulldogs/North Melbourne Half-Time/Full-Time ($6.50)

Hawthorn and Geelong might be the game of the round, but this is a nice little side dish to keep you going on Sunday.

The Demons have quietly been putting in work, winning comfortably against the Suns last week to make it two on the trot. The Swans, meanwhile, escaped by the skin of their teeth against Collingwood last week to keep their season ticking for one more week.

This game has the makings of a potential blockbuster, especially given the Swans are close to full strength once again.

Sydney have also been quite the formidable team at the MCG this season, taking down the likes of Hawthorn at the home of footy.

To make matters even more convincing for the bloods, the Swans have won their last three games against the Dees at the G’.

Last seasons 45-point blowout was the last meeting between these two teams, a game Melbourne fans would probably rather forget.

The Demons look well on their way to the finals, but they are yet to record a win against any of the Top 4 sides this year.

Throw in losses to Geelong and Hawthorn, and suddenly this game looks a little beyond the red and the blue.

Sydney got back to basics last week, and it looked mighty convincing.

Buddy kicked his usual bag, and the old veteran, Jarrad McVeigh, collected a lazy 26 disposals.

Most impressively for the Swans, though, has been defender Aliir Aliir.

The 23-year old was dynamite down back against the Pies, and he looks unstoppable on any ball kicked over head at the moment.

The Demons look strong right now, but their last two wins have been against a struggling Crows side and the lowly Suns.

You can’t buy into that too much.

Back the Swans this week.

Tip: Back Sydney Swans To Win @ $2.95

Same Game Multi: Swans To Win, Over 169.5 Total Points ($1.86)

Two teams on the heels of a thrashing, what more is there to say?

Carlton looked lost against the Giants last week, falling behind by four goals in the opening term.

Things weren’t much better for the Dockers, either, as Freo trailed by three goals of their own at quarter time.

The season can’t end soon enough for these two cellar dwellers, but with a chance to end their season on a high note, Fremantle are the team to back this weekend.

Ross Lyon’s side may have lost three straight, but they handed it to this same Carlton side back in Round 13.

Nat Fyfe was electric that day, collecting 30 disposals and booting a pair of goals, and with a chance to return from injury and play in front of the home crowd, Fyfe’s inclusion would be massive for the Dockers.

A road trip to Perth is the last thing Carlton needed, and this feels like a game the Blues will use to get some run in much younger players’ legs. It’s hardly going to be spectacle, but for punters, ride with the Dockers by plenty.

Tip: Back Fremantle To Win 40+ @ $2.50

Same Game Multi: Fremantle To Win 40+, Over 163.5 Total Points ($1.85)

2017

Round 21 of the 2017 AFL season begins with a genuine blockbuster between the Western Bulldogs and the GWS Giants and there are a number of massive games spread right across the weekend.

The winner of the clash between Richmond and Geelong will all but secure a top four finish, while the loser of the game between Melbourne and St Kilda will likely fall out of finals contention.

These are just three of the big games set to take place this weekend and you can find our complete 2017 AFL round 21 tips below.

The past two games played between the Western Bulldogs and the GWS Giants have been absolute epics and hopefully we are in for a repeat on Friday night.

Greater Western Sydney made it two wins on the trot with a professional win over Melbourne and they will start this clash as narrow favourites.

This is not a position in which they have thrived this season and they have won only four of their past nine games as away favourites.

It was not pretty, but the Western Bulldogs were able to come away with the four points from their clash with the Brisbane Lions and they have now won four games on the trot.

The Bulldogs have won their only game as home underdogs this season and their form at Etihad Stadium has been very strong.

There really is not a great deal between these two teams and the Western Bulldogs do appeal at their current price of $2.20.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.20

The Sydney Swans are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the AFL and they should prove too strong for Fremantle.

Sydney were excellent against Geelong last weekend and since round seven Hawthorn are the only side in the entire competition that they have lost too.

The Swans have still proven to be a losing betting proposition as home favourites this season – they are have won seven of their past 12 games in this scenario – and they are 6-6 against the line.

Fremantle ended their losing run with a quality win over the Gold Coast Suns and they have played some solid football over the past month.

The Dockers have actually won three of their past nine games as away underdogs for a small profit and they are 5-4 against the line in this situation.

Sydney should really win this game, but the line of 44.5 points is excessive and I doubt the Dockers will be disgraced in this clash.

Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (+44.5 Points)

This is an incredibly important game and there is basically a guaranteed top four finish on the line.

Geelong have won 19 of their past 20 games against Richmond, but it is the Tigers that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Richmond have won three of their past four games as away favourites and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.

Patrick Dangerfield will be back in action for Geelong this weekend, but they will be without Joel Selwood after he suffered an ankle injury during the Cats big loss at the hands of the Sydney Swans.

The Cats have won two of their past three games as home underdogs for a profit and you really can’t underestimate their simply outstanding record against Richmond.

Geelong can defy the absence of Selwood and continue their dominance over the Tigers.

Back Geelong To Win @ $2.40

The Brisbane Lions won the first Q-Clash this season and they are favourites to complete the double this weekend.

This is the first time that Brisbane have started a game as favourites this season, but they are deserving of that status following their quality performance against the Western Bulldogs last weekend.

Brisbane have never lost to the Gold Coast Suns as home favourites and their record against their rivals at the Gabba is stellar.

The Suns slumped to their fifth loss on the trot when they went down to Fremantle last Saturday night and it really has been another season to forget for the Gold Coast.

They have lost their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 2-6.

Brisbane really have played some decent football in the second half of the season and they can score another win over their Queensland rivals.

Back Brisbane To Win @ $1.80

The Adelaide Crows currently sit six points clear on top of the AFL ladder and can potentially secure the minor premiership with a win over Essendon.

Adelaide were simply outstanding against Port Adelaide last Sunday afternoon and when they are at their best there are very few teams in the AFL that can match them.

Winning away from home has not been an issue for the Crows so far this season and they have won eight of their past 11 games as away favourites, while they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

Essendon did not make it look easy, but they came from behind late to beat Carlton and they are back in the top eight.

The Bombers have won seven of their past nine games as home underdogs for a big profit and they are a most impressive 8-1 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.

No Bet

The West Coast Eagles have dropped out of the top eight, but they will still go into this clash with Carlton as clear favourites.

West Coast had their chances against St Kilda last weekend, but they lack composure at key moments and that loss could cost them badly in a few weeks time.

The Eagles have won only six of their past ten games as home favourites for a loss and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton really should have come away with the four points from their clash against Essendon last weekend and it will be interesting to see how they back-up this weekend.

The Blues have lost seven games on the trot, but they have generally performed better than that record suggests and they have covered the line in five of their past eight games as away underdogs.

The line of 34.5 points is a big one for a team that has been as inconsistent as the Eagles and the Blues are a good bet to cover the line once again.

Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+34.5 Points)

Melbourne ended their lengthy losing streak against St Kilda earlier this season and they will go into this clash with the Saints as favourites.

The Demons were fairly poor against Greater Western Sydney last weekend and their chances of finally returning to finals football really do hang in the balance.

Melbourne have won only five of their past ten games as favourites and they are a particularly poor 2-8 against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda showed plenty of character to beat West Coast on Sunday afternoon and keep their finals hopes alive.

The Saints have won only four of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this situation.

There really is very little between these two teams and an extremely close game seems very likely, which means that St Kilda really do appeal with a start of 7.5 points.

Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

Hawthorn had their finals hopes dashed by Richmond last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with North Melbourne as dominant favourites.

The Hawks were never really able to get anything going against Richmond, but it is fair to say that they won’t face such a stiff challenge against North Melbourne.

Hawthorn have won only three of their past seven games as favourites for a clear loss and their record against the line in this scenario is a disastrous 1-6.

North Melbourne wasted plenty of goal-scoring opportunities against Collingwood last weekend and they will go into this clash without Ben Brown.

The Kangaroos have won only three of their past 17 games as underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 9-8 against the line when being given a start.

Hawthorn do go into this clash as deserved favourites, but their isn’t as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and North Melbourne can cover the line with a start of 28.5 points.

Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (+28.5 Points)

Port Adelaide were nothing short of disgraceful against Adelaide, but they will still go into this clash with Collingwood as clear favourites.

It is tough to have any faith in Port Adelaide after such a poor performance, but they are 7-2 on the back of losses so far this season and they rarely produce poor performances back-to-back.

The Power have won six of their past eight games as home favourites for a small loss and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood continued their unbeaten run with an impressive victory against North Melbourne and they really can produce some quality football on their day.

The Magpies have won three of their past six games as away underdogs and they are an incredibly impressive 6-0 against the line in this situation.

It really would not surprise if Collingwood came out and won this clash and they are an excellent bet to beat the line with a start of 21.5 points.

Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+21.5 Points)

2016

There are now only three rounds left in the 2016 AFL regular season and every game is now key as we build towards the finals.

The rounds gets underway on Friday night when the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood square off at Etihad Stadium and we don’t have to wait long for the game of the round between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and West Coast Eagles before Fremantle take on Adelaide in the final match of the weekend.

The Western Bulldogs showed a great deal of both mental and physical toughness to beat North Melbourne last weekend and they will start this clash with Collingwood as clear favourites.

The Bulldogs continue to defy what is a hefty injury toll to remain an outside chance of sneaking into the top four and this is a game that they really must win for that to be a reality.

The Bulldogs have proven to be a safe betting proposition as home favourites this season and they have won seven of their past nine games in this scenario, while they are 6-3 against the line.

Collingwood were unable to build on their solid victory over West Coast and regressed to the form that we have seen the majority of this season with a loss to Richmond.

While Collingwood have struggled from a football standpoint this season, they have proven to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs and they have won three of their past eight games in this situation.

The Western Bulldogs are a safe bet to get the job done, but there is not much of an edge at their current price of $1.40 and the market looks to have got this game just about right.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The wooden spoon will not be on the line in this clash for the first time in a couple of seasons, but this is still a genuine cellar-dwellers clash between two very out of form teams.

Carlton have not won a game of football for over two months and they were very poor against Carlton last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.

This will be just the second time in the past 12 months that Carlton have been away favourites – a clash they lost – but they have won and beaten the line in two of their three games as the punter’s elect this season.

The Lions sunk to a new low with their dreadful effort against Adelaide and there really are very few positives that this club will be able to take from this season.

Brisbane have been a losing betting proposition across every betting metric this season and that is no different as home underdogs – they have lost seven of their past nine games as home underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line.

Carlton have been very poor in recent weeks, but they are still a more talented outfit than this Brisbane Lions side and the Blues really should be able to return to winning form.

Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points)

This is a big game for both sides as they both suffered disappointing defeats last weekend.

Hawthorn produced their poorest performance in weeks to go down to Melbourne and they now need to win this clash to stay on top of the AFL ladder.

It is no secret that Hawthorn have not suffered back-to-back losses in a number of seasons and they have won 19 out of their past 25 games as favourites, but they are a very poor 9-16 when giving away a start.

North Melbourne had their chances against the Western Bulldogs and couldn’t get the job done – leaving them at something of a crossroads this season.

The Kangaroos have generally struggled as underdogs this season and have won just two of their past eight games in this scenario, but they have been a positive betting play against the line with a start.

It is very rare that Hawthorn produce two poor performances in a row and I fancy them to come out firing against North Melbourne this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (-20.5 Points)

This is one of the most interesting games of the round and could prove to be a preview for what we see in the 2016 AFL Finals.

The Greater Western Sydney Giants got the job done against the Gold Coast Suns to make it four wins on the trot, but they did not make it look easy.

In saying that, they will still start this game as clear favourites and they may never have a better chance to record their first ever victory over the West Coast Eagles.

GWS have won six of their past seven games as home favourites and most impressively have an identical record against the line in this scenario.

West Coast got the job done against Fremantle in a fairly tense Western Derby  and they have now won six of their past seven games, but still aren’t playing particularly well.

Their struggles away from home this weekend have been well documented and they have won just one of their past four games as away underdogs, while they have an identical record against the line.

Greater Western Sydney look very well-placed to beat West Coast for the first time ever and should comfortably cover the line of 25.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-25.5 Points)

The Sydney Swans have won the past five games played between these two sides and they are clear favourites to continue their stellar record against St Kilda this weekend.

Sydney made it three wins in a row with a very comfortable victory over Port Adelaide last weekend, but they may not have it their own way against St Kilda.

The Swans have won only six of their nine games as away favourites this season for a loss, but they have proven to be profitable against the line in this scenario.

St Kilda have actually proven to be a very profitable betting team this season and they are 4-1-1 as home underdogs for a big profit, while they are 6-3 against the line.

The Saints still have a slim chance of playing finals football and they will be pumped up for what they will see as a winnable game.

This game should be much closer than the current betting market suggests and St Kilda are a great bet at the line with a start of 27.5 points.

Recommended Bet: St Kilda To Beat The Line (+27.5 Points)

Port Adelaide have dominated Melbourne in recent memory and have won the past six games played between the two sides, but head into this game on the back of a very poor performance against Sydney.

It was easily the worst performance that Port Adelaide have produced in a number of seasons and they will still start this clash as clear favourites.

Favourtism has actually proven to be a positive for the Power this season and they have won six of their seven games as home favourites, while they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne produced one of their best performances in a number of seasons to beat Hawthorn last weekend and they are sure to take a great deal of confidence from that victory.

In saying that, the Demons have struggled somewhat on the road this season and they have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-6 on the back of a win.

I expect Port Adelaide to bounce back in a big way this weekend and the line of 14.5 points won’t be enough.

Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)

The pain is almost over for Essendon fans and they only have a few games left this season without their suspended group of players.

It is fair to say that this very young Bombers side has not been disgraced this season, but they have become fairly noncompetitive in recent weeks and it is fair to say that they will go into this clash as clear underdogs.

Essendon have won just one of their past nine games as home underdogs, but they are a credible 6-3 against the line in this situation.

The Gold Coast Suns lost their second tight game in as many weeks to the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend, but they have an excellent chance to return to winning form.

This is just the second game that the Suns will start as away favourites in the past 12 months, but they have proven a fairly safe bet as the punter’s elect.

Gold Coast really should be able to get the job done, but they look to have found their right price and this is a clash that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Richmond returned to winning form with a victory over Collingwood last weekend, but they face a much tougher assignment against Geelong.

The Tigers showed what they are capable of against Collingwood, but stringing together performances of that quality has proven to be a major issue and they are just 6-7 on the back of a victory.

In saying that, Richmond are 2-1 as home underdogs this season and they are more than capable of matching it with any other team in the competition on their day.

Geelong made it four wins on the trot with a comfortable victory over Essendon and coach Chris Scott will be hopeful that they can maintain that form heading into the 2016 AFL Finals.

The Cats have not been a flawless team from a betting proposition this season and their record as away favourites is a very scratchy 4-1-4, while they are a very poor 2-7 against the line in this scenario.

It would not surprise me if Richmond were able to find a degree of form at the wrong time of the season and I expect them to give Geelong a scare this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Richmond To Beat The Line (+41.5 Points)

Adelaide are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and they are expected to have no problems accounting for a struggling Fremantle this weekend.

Adelaide put up a very big score against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but have still managed to win seven of their past eight games.

The Crows don’t have the best record away from home this season, but they have still won four of their six games as home favourites.

Fremantle suffered their sixth straight loss at the hands of the West Coast Eagles last weekend and they are clearly a team that can’t wait for the end of the AFL season.

The Dockers have won just one of their past 18 games as underdogs and they are an extremely poor 5-13 against the line in this situation.

The line of 42.5 points does seem a touch excessive, but Adelaide have had no problems putting up big scores this season and I expect them to do the same this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-42.5 Points)