2025 AFL Round 9 Preview

Can you believe we’re already at Round 9?

The first two months of the season have flown by, with Brisbane on top of the ladder but still in first gear and the season slipping away from the likes of Carlton and Port Adelaide.

There’s plenty to play for and we’ve previewed every game.

If there’s one thing we learned in Round 8, it’s that Fremantle doesn’t deserve a primetime slot.

Alas, the fixturing gods have delivered back-to-back showpiece events for the Purple Haze as they attempt to bounce back from their embarrassing 61-point loss to the Saints.

Unfortunately for Justin Longmuir and his chargers, that task is about as difficult as it gets against the all-conquering Collingwood and without gun midfielder Hayden Young (hamstring).

The Pies are taking it rather easy on their trip to Perth, resting Scott Pendlebury, Brayden Maynard and Jordan De Goey, while Brody Mihocek is out with an abdominal strain.

As such, the market has gravitated to the home side, which means there’s plenty of value to be found for those on the Collingwood train.

TIP: Collingwood to win @ $1.85

Is this the Tom De Koning Cup?

Friday night clashes between the Saints and Blues don’t get much bigger than knowing there’s a monster offer from both clubs sitting with the undecided big man.

The Blues are currently $1.64 favourites with Ladbrokes to win this encounter, with the market expecting them to return to form following last week’s 10-goal loss to Adelaide.

The Saints, who dismantled the Dockers in their best performance of the season, will look to do more of the same after snapping their own three-game losing streak.

Form is certainly on their side considering the Blues have lost each of their last eight night matches.

Getting $2.25 for the Saints after last week is genuine value.

TIP: St Kilda (+7.5) To Cover @ $1.90

Melbourne will be looking to make it four wins on the bounce when they face Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

Riding the return-to-form of Max Gawn (35 disposals and 47 hit-outs) and Christian Petracca (29 and eight clearances), the Dees have pieced together a string of solid victories against Fremantle, Richmond and West Coast.

This game, however, will prove decidedly tougher than their previous three with Harrison Petty (concussion) missing and a call still to be made on Clayton Oliver.

The Hawks have no such dilemmas following their 65-point demolition job of Richmond on Sunday.

Karl Amon should return from concussion protocols and strengthen their back six. Having won each of their last eight matches against bottom-four opponents by a margin of 40+ points, we won’t be going against Hokball.

TIP: Trent Rivers (Melbourne) 25+ Disposals @ $2.10

With four wins from their past five games, are we sold on Essendon just yet?

While they’re triumphs have come against sides currently sitting 12^th or lower on the ladder, you can only beat who you play, right?

They’ll enter this week’s game against the Swans as $2.25 outsiders (attractive for those who truly believe they’re in form) and will need to find coverage for Jordan Ridley (hamstring), Jade Gresham (adductor) and Harrison Jones (ankle).

Jye Caldwell will provide a huge boost upon his return to the midfield, while Nik Cox, Matt Guelfi and Angus Clarke all returned via the VFL.

They’re certainly a happier team at Sydney after snapping a three-game winless run with a 14-point victory over the Giants.

Despite winning seven of their past eight matches at Marvel Stadium, they’ve still got a lot to prove before we start taking the $1.58 about them.

TIP: Peter Wright (Essendon) 2+ Goals @ $1.70

A red-hot Doggies will go from Ballarat to Darwin this weekend as they attempt to make it four wins on the trot against the Suns.

After starting the season with a 2-3 record, the Dogs have moved into sixth spot on the ladder with wins against St Kilda, GWS and Port Adelaide over the past three weeks.

They were at their best in last week’s 90-point win over Port, with Bailey Dale (31), Ed Richards (30) and Marcus Bontempelli (23 and 3 goals) leading from the front.

The Suns, on the other hand, suffered their second loss in three weeks as they battle to find consistency against the top teams.

Matt Rowell will be looking to hit back after being mauled by Josh Dunkley and finishing the game with a season-low 16 touches and just the one clearance. A lot is riding on this result for the Suns, but they will be buoyed by the fact they’ve won their last six matches at TIO Stadium.

TIP: Gold Coast To Win @ $1.98

Will this be the best Showdown we’ve ever seen or the worst?

The inconsistent Power failed to turn up in their Round 8 clash against the Western Bulldogs and suffered a 90-point loss on the back of -110 disposals, -26 inside 50s and most concerningly, -14 clearances.

The likes of Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis won’t be used to being towelled up at stoppages and will be hellbent on an improved showing in their biggest game of the year.

The Crows have no such issues following their 110-50 trouncing of Carlton.

Izak Rankine (29 disposals and 2 goals) was at his best in Matt Crouch’s absence, and the return of half-back Mitch Hinge will only serve to strengthen the $1.62 favourites.

TIP: Adelaide To Win @ $1.62

It’s not exactly The Showdown, but there’s a lot of interest in Sunday’s game between Richmond and West Coast as both sides eye much-needed character-building wins.

The Tigers ($1.53) will enter the game as clear favourites, but it’s certainly not based on last week’s performance against Hawthorn whereby they went down by 65 points at the ‘G.

However, wins against Carlton and more recently Gold Coast mean they should taste success against the 18^th-ranked team in the AFL.

The Eagles will be without their best player, Jeremy McGovern (concussion), for their trip to Melbourne, but won’t hate their chances after defeating the Tigers by 39 points when the two sides met last season.

TIP: Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) 3+ Goals @ $2.20

Can the Giants snap a three-game losing streak?

After starting the season with so much promise (4 wins from 5 games) and as one of the premiership fancies, the Giants have now slumped to 4-4 and into eighth spot on the ladder after last week’s loss to the Swans.

While their fixture has arguably been as tough as any side (Crows, Dogs and their arch rivals), it doesn’t get any easier against a Geelong side that defeated Collingwood by three points in the match of the season.

Rhys Stanley (hamstring) and Lawson Humphries (concussion) are forced omissions for the Cats, but they could welcome back Tom Stewart and Jake Kolodjashnij.

A lot will ride on the shoulders of Giants big man Kieren Briggs as he looks to take advantage of a smaller Cats line-up and give his mids first use.

TIP: GWS Giants (+15.5) To Cover @ $1.90

North Melbourne will continue its quest for a second win of 2025 after falling narrowly short against the Bombers (65-62) last weekend.

The likes of Harry Sheezel (32), Tom Powell (28) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (28) went toe-to-toe with the Dons midfield but will need to go to another level if they are to break even with Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage.

As for Brisbane, they took top spot on the ladder with a commanding 17-point win over the Suns in the Q Clash.

Tom Doedee and Keidean Coleman doing everything they can to get a game in the Lions’ defence, while Logan Morris is set to return from a calf strain.

The Lions by how much…

TIP: Brisbane Lions To Win 40+ @ $1.94

2024 Preview

There should be a lot more pressure on the Blues compared to what there is at the moment.

The pressure comes from their inability to defend sides with speed and prevent scores off turnovers, which needs to change quickly if they’re to stay within the top-four battle.

The Demons are coming off a terrific victory against the Cats, which was pure hard-fought Demons footy that has given them that edge over their last few years.

This battle has some real history now, and whether it was the thrilling Semi-Final last year, the Round 22 drama, or the 2022 Pickett sinker, these two have a rivalry.

It should be more of the same, a hard, contested style that is reliant on strong stoppage work to break the ground open.

The Blues need to get their smalls working, which has also been another area they’ve struggled in, as Curnow is typically shut down by Steven May.

The Dees have been super reliable offensively, helped by the addition of Caleb Windsor and his running capacity on the wing, along with the likes of Harrison Petty who create a different element up forward.

While the Dees aren’t typically known for speed in transition, they’re strong runners on the outside and that’s where the Blues need to match them.

It’s one of those contests that might seem ready to break open but should go down to the last five minutes.

The Dees owe the Blues one, and with the confidence they’re heading in with, they should get it done.

Tip: Demons to cover the line (-1.5) @ $1.90

The Cats have tasted defeat for the first time this season, and it took a whole lot to go wrong for it to happen.

The Power on the other hand are a lost cause, losing to their cross-town rivals for the third consecutive game, they just don’t have big game ability.

It’s probably the worst game for the Power to bounce back in. At the Cattery on a Friday Night on National TV.

The Cats turnover game has been effective everywhere they go, and even though they might lose at the stoppage, Port’s inefficiency offensively leaves the door open for repeat turnovers.

The Power are likely to be without Connor Rozee who overestimated his ability with a sore hamstring.

Geelong is second in the league for tackles per game which places them in the perfect position to attack the Power who are indecisive with their fundamentals at critical points in transition.

If the Power is to stand a chance, the small forwards need to stay alive on a narrow ground that sees the ball go to ground inside 50 quite often.

Tyson Stengle and Oli Henry have been super damaging inside 50 for Geelong and it’s only the beginning of Geelong’s powerful forward line.

That will likely be too much to handle for the Power, they could play their best and it still won’t be enough.

Tip: Geelong to win by 25+ @ $1.94

The Swans established themselves as the premiership favourties at the end of Round 8, and whilst it’s a fluid conversation, they’re unbeatable at home and fit the bill for modern football.

The Dockers had their rough patch, but they’ve gotten things back on track for the moment, winning their last two to sit themselves back in the top eight.

Two styles that contrast each other, the Swans live and die by their speed in transition and ability to open up the ground, whilst the Dockers are calculated, spread the ground open, and give their forwards good looks.

The Dockers lead the league for disposal efficiency but are let down by their lack of inside 50s, which hurts them against better sides, even though they convert quite well when it does go in.

Pressure around the contest will be the key for the Swans, because whilst they’re capable of punishing on turnover, the Dockers play a handball-heavy game that can be punished with pressure.

The Dockers need to be accountable defensively as the Swans are second in the competition for turnovers per game.

The Dockers are relentless in preventing quick ball movement, but the issue is it’s not sustainable, which has let better teams in late in the game when all the pressure is on Freo.

A win for Freo would set their season up, but it’s also a major danger game for the Dockers who still need to convince the rest of the competition they can beat better sides.

In Perth, a full purple haze, the Dockers might turn a few heads.

Tip: Dockers to win by 1-24 @ $3.60

The Saints are finally back on the winners list after their 38-point win over North Melbourne last week, whilst the Hawks came in as underdogs, and beat the Dogs.

It’s the Hawks first trip to Tassie for the year, and they’ll go in with full belief that they can make it back-to-back wins for the first time this season.

The scoreboard flattered North Melbourne last week, as the Saints had nearly double the scoring shots, but were unable to make it show in the end.

It probably speaks to their problem of lacking class in each third, and whilst Max King was around the ball, he certainly didn’t bring a killer edge to his game.

The Hawks youth look their best when they’re playing with freedom, pace, and some grit in their ball movement, but they’re still very easily outplayed tactically.

It’s another danger game for the Saints, who last year let the Hawks come back and win in the final quarter in the first of their two meetings.

The Hawks will pray on forward half turnovers and the Saints must be calculated on when to move it through the corridor, rather than forcing the option and getting caught.

Saints bring the pressure around the contest, and they win comfortably, and forcing the Hawks to go deep inside 50 will favour the Saints who are comfortable at ground level defensively.

The Hawks beat sides with no real tactical conviction, and you can argue the Saints fall into this category, but there’s too much writing on this game for the Saints to lose it.

Tip: Back St Kilda to Cover the Line

This is a massive game for the Bombers who are still waiting to take a massive scalp in 2024, which presents a massive opportunity on Saturday afternoon.

The Giants were outclassed with speed and poise in the final third against the Swans, which has seemed to be their area of weakness in their losses.

Late last season the Giants turned the Bombers into a VFL side with a 126-point drubbing, and it likely will still linger on Essendon’s minds.

The Bombers can’t afford to get off to a slow start against the Giants, who are still leading the league for goal efficiency and will make you pay quickly.

Essendon’s midfield accountability has been exceptional in recent weeks, with the likes of Zach Merrett, Nic Martin, and Darcy Parish all continuing to provide consistent stoppage presence and relief out of defensive 50.

The main issue is the forward half for the Bombers, and where their goals come from with the likes of Sam Taylor and Connor Idun most likely shutting down Peter Wright and Kyle Langford.

The contest is evenly shaped statistically, both sides want first hands at the stoppage, although the difference is in movement on turnover, as the Bombers like to keep it wider, whilst the Giants want to penetrate the corridor and limit the time the ball is moving.

A full Carlton crowd intimidated the Giants a couple of weeks back with their third-quarter run, and Essendon will bring their numbers, so is a big scalp possible?

The Giants should be too classy.

Tip: Giants to win by 1-24 @ $3.25

Same old story for the Suns who yet again sit in the middle of mediocrity, unable to ever take a big scalp when it matters on the road.

The Roos are still yet to taste victory in 2024, and there’s no real indication of where the win will come from.

They struggle to maintain possession and even with ball in hand, there’s no real understanding of direction in their movement.

How about George Wardlaw? The kid is a beast, literally, and he goes to war for the blue and white with his hard-hitting contests and class in the contest to push his way through and source a handball out.

The Suns were smashed trying to get first hands on the footy, as the Lions were dominant in possession and peppered the Suns backline with 64 inside 50s.

32.6% inside 50 efficiency for the Suns was the Suns worst for 2024, and their issues against top sides seem never-ending.

Nonetheless, they will cruise this encounter given their flawless home ground strategy and North’s lack of competitiveness.

If one of Duursma or Larkey can get off the chain, it could spark some hope for the Roos, but they find themselves defending for most of the game, and it’s evidently exhausting.

Tip: Gold Coast to win by 40+ @ $1.62

The one thing the Dogs execute perfectly is their ability to beat a finals contender convincingly, only to lose to a rebuilding team the week after.

On paper, anyone would back the Dogs in for a comfortable five-plus goal win against the Tigers, but they continually make themselves beatable and vulnerable with their lack of commitment to getting stuck in and making a stance with their backs against the wall.

The Tigers are struggling to keep up with their lack of availability, but they could be helped this week by the return of Noah Balta and Dion Prestia.

The Dogs selection panel has continued to swing the axe to no avail, and with the likes of Ryley Sanders dominating at VFL, are they getting it right?

The Dogs fall into the category of efficient with disposal around the ground, they often convert inside 50 and rank high in the competition for it, but are poor defensively to shut down repeat entries.

The Tigers fast flowing football isn’t hitting it’s peaks anymore, and they sit at second last for disposal efficiency and last for tackles per game, which is a result of their heavily reliant uncontested game.

Richmond’s fundamentals are keeping them behind in most games, and whilst they are competitive, they get smashed at the stoppages, which gives them no tactical advantage in most hitouts.

The Dogs are a punter’s worst nightmare, and how could anyone be confident backing them anymore?

The good thing for the Dogs is that their worst usually kicks a high score still, which will be enough against the Tigers.

Tip: Bulldogs to cover the line (-21.5) @ $1.90

The Pies are officially back in the finals picture and with a win against the Eagles, they suddenly sneak back up on the top four.

The Eagles are competitive again, and whilst it can change in an instant, it’s a lot more desirable to watch.

Nick Daicos magic got the job done late for the Pies, but before that, it was their ability to shut down the Blues transition and pounce with the speed that got the job done in crucial moments.

The Eagles were valiant against the Bombers, and if it wasn’t for a bit of ill-discipline in the final quarter, they were close to jumping the Dons late.

The Pies had 11 individual goal scorers which is the key to their winning ways, when the midfielders hit the scoreboard.

The Eagles are finding their groove offensively, and their transition game is giving their athletic forwards a chance to create space and get shots on goal.

Uncontested footy is where the Pies will thrive, trying to break the Eagles with pressure and push the ball forward with movement inside the corridor and out wide inside 50.

The Eagles must lift their tackle pressure, sitting second last in the competition, whilst the Pies sit first.

A focus on contested footy will give the Eagles a chance to stay competitive, but they’re coming up against one of the hardest road trips in footy.

Tip: Collingwood to win by 25+ and Collingwood first to three goals @ $1.62

Both sides sit in an extremely similar position in 2024, failing to live up to their promise, but still managing to keep up with the top eight.

This is a major top-eight deciding game for both sides, with a loss really making things difficult for the rest of the year, whilst a win just continues to build some hope.

The Lions look battered and bruised after their Q-clash win against the Suns and will need a lot to go right on the road.

The Crows aren’t ultra-convincing in their performances, but they’re super-efficient when it matters which gets them over the line.

Their win against the Power was all about their quick breaks in transition, moving it into an open inside 50 where they found success out the back.

It’s a pretty simple equation for the Lions. Set up behind the ball and you’ll have success.

The Lions need to capitalise on their stronger contested bodies at the stoppage and if they’re to break even in the middle, they’ve got the forward timber to kick a winning score.

The Crows did concede 23 scoring shots last week, which is still an issue for their defensive unit in preventing scoring shots from inside 50 entries.

The Lions injury toll will prove too costly and whilst they’ll be able to compete, it’s against the odds at a hard ground to win at.

Tip: Adelaide to win by 1-39 @ $2.25

2023

Two months of footy have officially passed as we start to get a firmer read on the contenders and pretenders.

A rare Friday night doubleheader leads off the round with Richmond facing another must-win game against red-hot Geelong at the MCG, followed by a Saturday slate featuring an old grudge match between the Lions and Bombers, and a blockbuster between the Dogs and Blues. 

The Crows can edge their way back into the top eight with a win over the Saints at home on Sunday, while the Pies are out to make it five in a row against the visiting Giants. 

Round 9 is full of value, and we’re here to help you find a winner!

The very thought that the Cats could potentially miss out on playing finals almost seems inconceivable now. 

After a slow start, Geelong has clawed its way back into the eight with five straight wins, the Cats running out 26-point victors over the Crows last Saturday thanks to another three-goal game from Jeremy Cameron. 

A spot in the top four beckons should Chris Scott’s men take care of the Tigers on Friday night, a side that has kept its slim mathematical finals chances alive after downing easy-beats West Coast last week. 

It was touch and go for the first three quarters, but a clutch performance from Shai Bolton saw the Tigers home comfortable 46-point winners in the end.

Looking ahead, the Cats could have some personnel issues to address with Brad Close facing the tribunal after his dangerous tackle on Jordan Dawson, while skipper Patrick Dangerfield also left Saturday’s game with a hamstring issue. 

In terms of recent history, the Cats have held the wood over the Tigers with wins in their last three meetings, last year’s encounter going right down to the wire with Geelong winning by only three points. 

Tigers coach Damien Hardwick continues to field questions regarding the locker room and whether he’s lost the players, and even though last week’s win over the Eagles helped relieve some of the pressure, the same old problems on the field were present. 

Richmond lost the clearances and also struggled to keep the ball out of their own forward 50 during the first three quarters, a worrying sign matching up against a Geelong outfit that has averaged nearly seven more scoring shots a game compared to the Tigers this year. 

Tip: Back the Cats to Cover the Line (-21.5 Points) @ $1.90

It might be do-or-die time for the Suns this week. 

It was another case of close but no cigar for Stuart Dew and company against Melbourne last Saturday, the Suns putting on another encouraging three-quarter performance but simply lacking the legs and the composure in front of goal to get the job done.

Gold Coast finds itself sitting 14th on the ladder now at 3-5, but they might be able to make up some ground against the injury-ravaged Eagles in Perth. 

To their credit, West Coast hung tough with the Tigers for three quarters last week at the MCG, and it’s fair to say the final scoreline didn’t do them any justice. 

Adam Simpson continues to come under fire with his job in serious jeopardy, but there were some positives to take away with the Eagles winning the clearances and actually moving the ball forward with purpose for a change. 

The Suns are incredibly frustrating to watch in front of goal at times, but they do get a number of chances due to their ability to rebound from their back half and create opportunities. 

Gold Coast has been the second-best rebounding team in the competition, which could create problems for a West Coast outfit that has a tendency to give up large chunks of goals in a hurry. 

Surprisingly, the Eagles rank third in tackles, so their pressure might make this interesting for the Suns on the road.

Gold Coast has also had a serious turnover problem for most of the year, so if the Eagles can build on last week’s performance and put that sloppy fourth quarter behind them, they might just land the final dagger in the Suns’ season. 

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (+21.5 Points) @ $1.90

A pair of last year’s finals contenders square off on Saturday with plenty at stake.

Sydney’s fall from grace now sees the Swans sitting 11th on the ladder following a third-straight loss to the Pies last week, while the Dockers occupy the 12th spot on the ladder coming off a bounce-back win over the Hawks.

The Swans were arguably the better side for three quarters against the premiership favourites, but after struggling for accuracy in front of goal, Sydney managed only one goal to Collingwood’s five in the final term. 

It’s tough to read too much into a win against the wooden spoon favourite, but the Dockers appeared more polished through the middle of the field last week, led by a monster game from Andrew Brayshaw and a handful of goals from Michael Frederick and Jye Amiss. 

Not surprising for two defensive-minded sides, low-scoring battles have been the norm between these two teams in recent times. 

The Under has saluted in their last two meetings, and with the Swans doing their best to avoid kicking goals last week, another stalemate could be on the cards. 

Tip: Under 164.5 Total Points @ $1.88

A spot in the top four is up for grabs this week should Port continue on their winning ways. 

The Power made it five on the trot with a come-from-behind victory over Essendon last Sunday, Connor Rozee leading the way with 29 touches and Junior Rioli creating plenty of havoc up forward in the final term. 

Ken Hinkley now sets his sights on the out-of-sorts Kangaroos in Hobart, a team that has fallen off a cliff since starting the season 2-0 under Alastair Clarkson. 

For the second week in a row North managed to put up less than 50 points, kicking just 4.10 in Sunday’s low-scoring, tough-to-watch affair against St Kilda. 

Down back, the Roos are a shambles, and that might be just what the doctor ordered for a Port team that has really struggled to hit the mark in front of goal. 

So far, the Power hold the fifth-worst goal-kicking percentage on the season, in large part due to Rioli’s struggles in front of the sticks as well as Mitch Georgiades and Jeremy Finlayson.

Fortunately, the Roos are conceding over 14 goals a game to opponents on the year, setting up what could be another one-sided affair. 

Tip: Port Adelaide Over 98.5 Total Points @ $1.90

The Dees can cement their top-four spot even further on Saturday with a win against the struggling Hawks, but there are genuine concerns that Melbourne might be the biggest pretender inside finals contention right now. 

Simon Goodwin’s side played some very un-Melbourne-like footy last week in a five-point win over the Suns, struggling to convert in front of goal and also giving up a number of easy inside 50 opportunities late in the game. 

After disappointing performances against Essendon and Brisbane earlier in the year, the jury is still out on the 2021 premiers, but they do have a chance to right their wrongs against a Hawks side coming off a 69-point belting at the hands of Freo last week. 

Like we’ve seen all year, the first quarter from the Hawks was good, but their aggressive brand of footy was quickly smothered once Freo’s midfield took over. 

With future No. 1 pick Harley Reid in their sights, Hawks fans mightn’t mind too much, but they’d still like to see a genuine four-quarter effort from their side at some point this season. 

Hawthorn’s biggest problem this year has been scoring, or more importantly, sustaining momentum throughout the game. 

The Hawks rank 14th in points scored, a stark comparison to a Dees team that ranks second. 

Teams coming off the Perth trip can sometimes struggle the next week, and although Melbourne has plenty of problem areas to sort out, this should be a statement win.

Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-42.5 Points) @ $1.90

Another chapter in one of the game’s fiercest rivalries will be written at the Gabba on Saturday.

Brisbane is arguably the most in-form team in the competition after downing Carlton by an impressive 26-point margin last week – a confidence-boosting win for a team that has struggled to come up big on the prime time stage during the Chris Fagan era.

Such is the competitive nature of the competition, the Bombers now find themselves further outside the eight after suffering another honourable loss to Port Adelaide. 

It was a third-straight defeat for Brad Scott’s young side, and while there were plenty of positives to draw, it was clear Essendon’s back-line wasn’t capable of handling the onslaught of pressure Port inflicted up forward.

The Power finished with 65 inside 50 entries against the Dons, a worrying statistic with not only former Bomber Joe Daniher but also the third-leading goal-kicker, Charlie Cameron, ahead this weekend.

The Bombers have been desperately missing Jayden Laverne down back for the last two weeks, and with a shoulder injury likely to keep him out for at least another month, this shapes as another huge test for Essendon defensively. 

Brisbane’s home-field advantage at the Gabba is second to none, and although the Dons continue to play good patches of footy, it’s hard to back against a Lions team that seems to have really shifted into fifth gear over the last couple of weeks. 

Tip: Back the Lions to Win & Over 181.5 Total Points @ $2.30

A big crowd is expected under the roof at Marvel on Saturday night for what is quite simply a must-win game for the Blues. 

Not for the first time this season, Carlton has come under fire on the back of a puzzling effort against the Lions last week. 

“Boring” has been the word to describe the effort from Michael Voss’ side, the Blues playing a slow, tough to watch brand of football that really doesn’t compliment their enormous advantage forward of the ground.

The Dogs, on the other hand, have been humming along nicely, stringing together three wins on the trot. Realistically, you could argue the Bulldogs haven’t beaten much in Fremantle, Hawthorn, and GWS, but they look to have rectified some of their glaring issues at both ends of the ground. 

Accuracy in front of goal has long been a problem for the Dogs, but they’ve had no issues converting 13 goals or more in their last three games. On the other end, the Bulldogs have really knuckled defensively, currently allowing the third-fewest points in the competition. 

As the market suggests, this is a 50/50 game between two sides that we’re yet to figure out. 

Skills-wise, the advantage has to go to the Dogs, but this is a much bigger test for their back-line against two former Coleman Medalists. 

That said, the Blues actually have to get the ball down that end of the ground with purpose, which is proving difficult with turnovers becoming more and more frequent. 

The Blues have won three of their last five against the Dogs, but if Luke Beveridge can come up with a strategy to eliminate Patrick Cripps – something the Lions did effectively last week – and also capitalise on Carlton’s sloppy play, the Bulldogs look a nice bet to win outright. 

Tip Back the Dogs to Win @ $1.85

We’re about to learn plenty about the legitimacy of the Crows on Sunday. 

Adelaide has slipped outside the eight after suffering back-to-back losses, but they haven’t lost any admirers with both defeats coming against Collingwood and Geelong.

The Crows pushed the current flag favourites right to the death two weeks ago at home, and while they trailed by only two against the reigning premiers at the end of the first quarter last Saturday, no one really expected them to pull off the unthinkable at the Cattery.

On the plus side, Jordan Dawson continues to lay serious claims for the Brownlow, while Matthew Nicks has to be pleased with the fact his side burst out of the gates to claim the first seven inside 50 entries against Geelong. 

For St Kilda, this game might also be a “prove it” moment. 

The Saints can cement their top-four spot with a win, and they’ll take great pride in sucking the life out of a Crows team that currently ranks fifth in goals scored per game. 

St Kilda made for a miserable afternoon against North Melbourne last Sunday, holding the Roos to just 34 points in what was another defensive clinic from Ross Lyon. 

Replicating that performance isn’t beyond the mastermind, but the Saints will have their hands full against the likes of Tex Walker, Darcy Fogarty, and Izak Rankine this time around.

That said, converting their opportunities inside 50 has been a huge issue for the Crows all year – and it’s in large part what cost them last week. 

The Saints don’t give away cheap looks down back, and they can also hurt you in transition with their razor-sharp kicking game. 

The Crows have the edge up forward, but if they can’t capitalise, St Kilda’s midfield could carve Adelaide up, making them a nice value play as the underdog on the road. 

Tip: Back the Saints to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

Adam Kingsley has the unenviable task of game-planning against red-hot Collingwood this week. 

Like they’ve done for the better part of 18 months, the Pies simply found another gear in the final term last week, outscoring the Swans five goals to one on the way to a comfortable 29-point win. 

The Giants also staged a late comeback against the Dogs in treacherous conditions, kicking five last-quarter goals but still falling short. 

GWS’ biggest strength this year has been through the midfield, as they currently rank highly in disposals. Unfortunately, they’ve been one of the worst teams around the clearances, which not surprisingly, has been one of Collingwood’s biggest strengths. 

Scoring has also been a huge issue for the Giants this year, as they’ve only amassed 100 points all season. Interestingly, they’ve been one of the best teams at limiting inside 50 entries against the opposition though, which sets up for an interesting matchup against a Collingwood outfit that leads the competition on attack. 

Stats aside, this is still a huge task for a Giants team that hasn’t won at the MCG since Round 16, 2021.

Collingwood proved last week that even when their opposition targets Nick Daicos, the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Beau McCreery, and Brody Michocek are capable of stepping up and hurting you. 

How the Giants account for the Pies’ sheer strength in talent is a test in its own right, let alone keeping up on the scoreboard. 

Tip: Back Collingwood to Win & Under 171.5 Total Points @ $2.30