Only six teams in NFL history have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3, placing enormous pressure on the Bengals, Broncos, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers and Redskins in Week 4.
Meanwhile, 25 teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl after starting 3-0, something the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, Rams and 49ers all have in mind.
The battle for a playoff spot continues to heat up in each division as we try and separate the contenders from the pretenders, so if you fancy backing a winner, be sure to read all our top NFL Week 4 tips below.
Green Bay Packers
Friday 27 September, 10:20am, Lambeau Field
Packers 27 - Eagles 34
We’re only four weeks in, but this could turn out to be the most exciting Thursday Night Football game all season.
The 3-0 Packers prepare for their third straight home game as they take on an Eagles side reeling from a loss to the Lions. Green Bay have opened as 4.5-point favourites, but with both sides playing well defensively, we could be in for a tight one.
Philadelphia’s loss last week at home boiled down to turnovers and sacks. The Eagles turned the ball over twice, while Carson Wentz spent an uncomfortable four quarters in the pocket as the Lions racked up three sacks.
Home-field advantage has certainly played a part in the Packers’ undefeated start to 2019. Defensively, Green Bay’s secondary has been enormous ranking Top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed and first in takeaways, but there’s still plenty to be desired from the offence.
Aaron Rodgers and his receivers look a little out of sync, which has left new head coach Matt LaFleur no option but to rely on the running game. So far that has worked just fine with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams splitting the carries, but the Packers will need to find some rhythm through the air against an Eagles team that’s allowed only one rushing touchdown all year.
These two sides haven’t met since 2016, a game the Packers won 27-13. The Total has gone Under in four of their last five meetings at Lambeau Field, while the Total has also gone Under in four of Philly’s last six games.
With both defences operating on all cylinders, as well as both offensive units looking a little unstable, back the Double.
Tip: Back the Packers to Win & Under 45 Points @ $3.13
New England Patriots
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, New Era Field
Bills 10 - Patriots 16
The undefeated Bills have caught everybody by surprise opening the season with a perfect 3-0 record.
Haters will say Buffalo has only earned wins over the hapless Jets, Giants and Bengals, but there’s still something to be said about the Bills’ defence that currently ranks fifth in fewest yards allowed.
The Patriots have also opened undefeated thanks to a cruisy first month of their own. New England owns wins over the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, but as the odds suggest, the bookmakers aren’t all-in on a Patriots blowout like they have been in recent weeks.
Bill Belichick and company are 7-point favourites as they hit the road this week. The Patriots have won five straight games over Buffalo dating back to 2016, while you have to rewind all the way back to 2011 to find the Bills’ last home win over New England.
Still yet to allow a touchdown, the Patriots’ defence has been outstanding to start the season, however, they may meet their match against a Bills team that ranks fifth in rushing yards.
The Bills are often thought of as an easy beat, but this already feels similar to 2017 when Buffalo snuck into the Wild Card spot. The Bills have also been money at the line recently boasting a strong 4-1 record, so it’s worth backing the Bills’ recent form to at least keep this close.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (+7 Points) @ $1.91
Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins 10 - Chargers 30
One of these sides is more desperate than the other for a win, and it’s not the Miami Dolphins.
The Chargers lost a game they should have won last week against the Texans as quarterback Philip Rivers again failed to get the job done with under a minute to go.
Los Angeles had the ball on the Texans’ 29-yard line with just over 30 seconds remaining, only for Rivers to turn it over on downs to secure the 27-20 loss.
The Dolphins seem relatively comfortable tanking their season away, although Miami certainly put a scare into the Cowboys last week in Dallas.
Brian Flores’ side trailed 10-6 at half time, but the damage was done in the second half as Dak Prescott piled on 21 unanswered points.
These two sides haven’t met since 2017, and surprisingly enough, it’s the Dolphins who have held the upper hand in recent years winning seven of their last 10-games. Of course, Miami’s defence currently looks incapable of stopping even the most mediocre passing attacks, which makes it hard to foresee any kind of upset this week.
Los Angeles has won three of its last five Week 4 games, and while that mightn’t mean much, it does say a lot about a team that has notoriously started each season slowly.
The Dolphins are currently losing by an average margin of 39 points-per-game, and after two blown losses, this should be the perfect opportunity for Los Angeles to turn things around.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.96
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Colts 24 - Raiders 31
Turns out Andrew Luck retiring wasn’t the worst thing in the world.
Indianapolis, now 2-1, have been the most surprising team to start the new season as they still look up to challenging the Texans in the AFC South.
Last week the Colts fought to the death against the Falcons to earn a 27-24 victory in a game headlined by Jacoby Brissett’s 300-yard performance and yet another dominant outing from running back Marlon Mack.
Oakland, on the other hand, finds themselves right where we thought they’d be at 1-2 on the year. The Raiders proved no match for the Vikings in Minnesota last week, as the defence continues to surrender large chunks of yards through the air.
Mack currently ranks third in rushing yards this season, so you can expect to see plenty of him this week. The Colts’ talented back has helped Indianapolis convert on 19 of their 35 third down opportunities this year – the fourth highest success rate in the league.
Speaking of third down, the Raiders continue to find new ways to allow opposing teams to move the chains. Oakland has allowed the fourth-most third down conversions this year, which normally spells bad news against a very dangerous offence like the Colts.
Tip: Back the Colts to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $2.00
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, Mercedes Benz Stadium
Falcons 10 - Titans 24
A win this week is crucial for both teams as the Falcons and Titans both look to return to .500.
Tennessee’s playoff hopes took a slight turn in Week 3 as they lost a blowout on Thursday Night Football to the division rival Jags. Despite controlling possession and the ground game, nine sacks on quarterback Marcus Mariota cost the Titans a chance to improve to 2-1.
As for Atlanta, things are equally concerning. The Falcons took care of the Eagles at home in Week 2 before losing a 27-24 thriller against the Colts in Indianapolis last week. The season is far from over, but the running game needs to find its mojo if Atlanta holds any hopes of making the playoffs.
This won’t be the most exciting game of the week, but it’s tough to back against the Falcons at home. Plenty has been made of Matt Ryan this season, but Atlanta still ranks Top 10 in passing yards and third in touchdowns.
Tennessee’s defence was made to look basic last week against Gardner Minshew, and it’s tough to trust the Titans’ offensive line on the road. The Falcons are 5-2 in their last seven home games against Tennessee, so back some value in the Margin Market.
Tip: Back the Falcons 1-13
New York Giants
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, Metlife Stadium
Giants 24 - Redskins 3
There might only be bragging rights on the line between these two NFC East rivals, but there are still a handful of key storylines worth watching.
The Daniel Jones era got off to a bang last week as the Giants’ first round pick led Big Blue on a game-winning 75-yard drive. Jones scrambling for the touchdown was the highlight of the game, but the injury to running back Saquon Barkley put a bit of a dampener on the result.
Washington, meanwhile, now have a potential top three draft pick on the horizon. The Redskins were torn apart by Chicago’s pass rush on Monday Night Football, leaving Washington one of seven teams yet to record a win this season.
Barkley is set to miss 4-8 weeks with a high-ankle sprain, placing more pressure on Jones’ shoulders. Trusty tight end Evan Engram and receiver Sterling Shepard will now have more responsibility to score points, but considering the Skins’ defence is equal to, if not worse, than Tampa Bay’s last week, this should be another win for the Giants.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.91
Kansas City Chiefs
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, Ford Field
This shapes up as a fascinating battle between two undefeated sides in Detroit on Monday morning.
The Lions held on for dear life in Philadelphia last week and emerged with a narrow 27-24 victory over the Eagles, while the Chiefs survived a scare at home to outscore the Ravens 33-28.
Kansas City look similar to last season as the offence continues to dominate. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t regressed at all in his second year as the starter, as he currently leads the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards per-game.
That said, the Chiefs’ defence is still a question mark. Kansas City allowed the Ravens to rack up 452 total yards last week, and while the Lions mightn’t look much on paper, there’s still plenty of big-time offensive weapons for Chiefs defence to worry about.
Detroit continues to fly under the radar for a number of reasons, but with wins over the Chargers and Eagles now to their name, it’s time to take the Lions seriously.
Matt Patricia’s team not only ranks 10th in passing yards, but the Lions have also allowed only four touchdowns through the air so far.
Detroit and Kansas City don’t get together very often, which makes this game one of the biggest upset watches of the week.
The Chiefs haven’t traveled to Detroit since 2011, and as we’ve seen over the last two years with the Patriots in 2018 and the Chargers a fortnight ago, the Lions are more than capable of beating the AFC’s elite teams at home.
Tip: Back the Lions to Win @ $3.25
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Ravens 25 - Browns 40
Nothing beats a classic AFC North rivalry game between two sides looking to bounce-back from a previous loss.
Baltimore still finds themselves atop the division despite their thrilling 33-28 loss to the Chiefs last week. The Ravens matched Kansas City on offence but struggled to find an answer to Patrick Mahomes defensively – a common problem across the league.
Cleveland also found themselves with their back to the wall at home to last year’s Super Bowl runner-up’s. The Browns had their chances against the Rams, but another poor game from Baker Mayfield cost Cleveland in the end.
The Ravens are 7-point favourites this week having won eight of their last 10 games over the Browns. Offensively, Lamar Jackson is on a completely different level, but it’s the Ravens defence that should decide this game.
Cleveland has given up 11 sacks through three games and currently ranks 27th in third down conversion percentage. The offensive line is in complete disarray, and with Baltimore holding a 10-1 record in their last 11 home games against the Browns, this should be nothing more than a blowout.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $1.91
Monday 30 September, 3:00am, NRG Stadium
Texans 10 - Panthers 16
The Texans head back to Houston on Monday fresh from a successful road trip out West.
Bill O’Brien’s men held on for a huge victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles, highlighted by Deshaun Watson’s first career 300-yard, three touchdown game.
The win was vitally important for the Texans with the 2-1 Colts looking much better than expected, and not surprisingly, Houston has opened as 4.5-point favourites this week against the Panthers.
Carolina got their season partially on track last week with a much-needed win over the Cardinals. It was a fabulous homecoming for Arizona native Kyle Allen, as the rookie threw for 261-yards and four touchdowns.
At time of publish, it’s unclear whether the Panthers will risk Cam Newton’s health or instead rely on Allen for another week. Either way, it’s still difficult to back a Carolina upset.
These two sides have split their previous four meetings two wins apiece since they first met back in 2003, but it’s the Texans who should gain the upper hand on Monday.
Houston’s offence is firing on all cylinders, even on the ground – an area of concern for the Texans following Lamar Miller’s season-ending injury.
The Texans rank 10th in rushing yards, while the Panthers rank eighth in rushing yards allowed. That spells a Houston win at home in what should be a low-scoring game.
Tip: Back the Texans to Win & Under 46 Points @ $3.08
Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 30 September, 6:05am, LA Coliseum
Rams 40 - Buccaneers 55
The Rams have opened the season 3-0 for the second straight year after pulling off a big win over the Browns in Cleveland last week.
Los Angeles haven’t wowed us like they did last year though, making this week’s game against the Bucs crucial as the Rams prepare to enter a tough patch on the schedule.
Tampa Bay suffered a cruel loss last week at home as kicker Matt Gay missed a game-winning field goal against the Bucs. Head coach Bruce Arians wore the blame for taking a delay of game penalty, but really, there are plenty of bigger problems to focus on in Tampa Bay right now.
Jameis Winston threw for over 300-yards and a touchdown, but none of that matters when your quarterback is sacked four times. The Bucs have now allowed 10 sacks through three games, which in turn has led to Tampa Bay’s struggles on third down.
Los Angeles will travel to Seattle next week before they take on the 49ers at home. Those are two tough division games the Rams need to win, but head coach Sean McVay must ensure his team doesn’t underestimate the Bucs this week.
Although last week’s win over the Browns was impressive, there was still lots to dislike about the Rams. Los Angeles turned the ball over three times, two of which came on interceptions from Jared Goff.
Say what you will about the Bucs, but their defence has played okay in the opening three weeks. Tampa Bay ranks 12th in takeaways and has allowed only three passing touchdowns, so back the Bucs to keep this one close.
Tip: Back the Buccaneers to Cover the Line (+10 Points) @ $1.91
Monday 30 September, 6:05am, State Farm Stadium
Cardinals 10 - Seahawks 27
We could be in for a high-scoring NFC West battle on Monday between two teams looking to bounce-back from a pair of losses.
Arizona find themselves staring at 0-2-1 after the defence allowed Kyle Allen to throw for four touchdowns during last week’s 38-20 blowout loss to Carolina.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, managed a more respectable loss against the Saints, but despite what the scoreboard read, Seattle were still torn apart as Ken Norton’s defence found no answer to Alvin Kamara.
The Cardinals and Seahawks have had no trouble putting points on the board, particularly when they get together. The Total has gone Over in two of their last three meetings, while the Seahawks have also seen six of their last seven games also go Over.
Arizona’s offensive line continues to break down in front of Kyler Murray as the Cardinals have allowed the second-most sacks this season. Seattle’s pass rush should be in for a feast, while on offence, the Seahawks should be able to take advantage of an Arizona defence allowing the third-most rushing yards.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Win & Over 48 Total Points @ $2.69
Monday 30 September, 6:25am, Broncos Stadium
Broncos 24 - Jaguars 26
We should find out plenty about Gardner Minshew this week as Jacksonville travels to Denver to take on the winless Broncos.
The Jaguars have enjoyed an extra few days rest in the leadup to Week 4 after earning their first win of the season over the Titans last week. Minshew had himself a game throwing for 200-yards and a pair of scores, but it was the defence who stole the show sacking Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota nine times.
If you’ve caught a glimpse of the Broncos already, you’ll know Denver is in a world of hurt. For a team that was supposed to have one of the best defences in the league, the Broncos are still yet to record a single sack all season.
On offence, the Broncos do pack a punch though – as the Packers found out last week. Phillip Lindsay turned up in a big way at Lambeau Field rushing for 81-yards and two touchdowns, while backup Royce Freeman pitched in with 63-yards of his own.
These two sides haven’t met since 2016, but it’s worth noting the pair have split their last 10 meetings five wins apiece.
With home-field advantage, the Broncos have opened as the 3-point favourites, but the Total is probably your safest bet between two fairly unpredictable sides.
Denver’s last eight home games have all gone Under, so back the defences to do the talking in this one.
Tip: Under 39 Total Points @ $1.92
Monday 30 September, 6:25am, US Bank Stadium
Bears 16 - Vikings 6
The bookies are having a tough separating these two NFC North rivals with almost even money on offer.
The Bears and Vikings both find themselves 2-1 to start the season, but it’s Chicago who holds the edge in the market with home-field advantage.
Matt Nagy’s side piled on 31-points against the Redskins in Washington last week as the defence murdered Case Keenum with three interceptions and four sacks. That said, the Bears did take their foot off the gas a little in the third quarter as the Skins put up a pair of touchdowns in the second half.
Minnesota also won big last week at home over the Raiders. Again, it was the Dalvin Cook show as the talented running back rushed for 110-yards and a touchdown, while the defence allowed only three third down conversions.
Speaking of defence, that’s exactly what we should see between these two NFC heavyweights. The Bears and Vikings both rank Top 10 in sacks and interceptions, while the Bears are one of only three teams yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
While the defence will win this game for either side, the offence still needs to put up points. Already this season we’ve seen signs of regression from Mitch Trubisky, but on the opposite side, Kirk Cousins has been equally underwhelming.
Surprisingly, the Bears and the Vikings rank second and third in completions this year – adding further spice to this match up.
Even so, six of Chicago’s last seven home games have gone Under the Total, so expect plenty of turnovers and very few points.
Tip: Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.91
New Orleans Saints
Monday 30 September, 10:20am, Mercedes Benz Superdome
Saints 12 - Cowboys 10
If this game turns out anything like last year’s Week 13 game, we should be in for a real treat.
The Cowboys won 13-10 thriller in Texas over the Saints last season, but this time around, Jerry Jones and company will have to travel to the Superdome to face a very dangerous looking New Orleans team.
Sean Payton dialed up the perfect gameplan for Teddy Bridgewater last week. The Saints kept things simple through the air by relying on screens and short throws to the flat, while Alvin Kamara did the rest racking up 161 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
The Cowboys enjoyed a much easier week against the Dolphins last Sunday, but Dallas certainly kept things interesting in the first half. Leading only 10-6 at half time, fortunately Ezekiel Elliott turned up in the second half as both he and back up Tony Pollard combined for over 200-yards on the ground.
If last year’s game was any indication though, we could be in for a low-scoring affair in this one. Dallas’ defence has allowed only 270-yards and two touchdowns on the ground, which could make life tough for Kamara to find running lanes.
The Cowboys have won two of their last three games over New Orleans, and the odds look just about right this week.
If Dallas can accomplish what the Seahawks failed to do last week and pressure Bridgewater up the middle, they should be well on their way to a big road win and a 4-0 record.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win @ $1.70
Tuesday 1 October, 10:15am, Heinz Field
Steelers 27- Bengals 3
A game between two winless teams mightn’t seem very exciting, but there’s always plenty of fireworks whenever these two AFC North rivals get together.
Nothing more than a touchdown separated the Bengals and the Steelers in their two meetings last year, and after a very sluggish start to the season, it’s surprising to see the Steelers favoured so heavily in the market.
That said, Mason Rudolph, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie replacement, looked just fine during last week’s loss to the 49ers on the road. The 24-year-old threw for 174-yards and a pair of touchdowns – decent numbers after dropping back to pass 27 times in his debut.
The Bengals also fell in similar fashion against the Bills. Cincinnati trailed by two touchdowns at half time, right before piling on 10-points in the fourth quarter to go on and lose 21-17.
Pittsburgh won both games over Cincinnati last year, but there’s still a lot to like about the Bengals. The running game finally showed some signs of life last week as Joe Mixon rushed for 61-yards, while the defence forced a pair of turnovers.
Better yet, the Bengals also hold a 6-1 record against the line in their last seven games. Cincinnati is also 6-0 in their last six games on the road, so it’s worth taking on the Steelers with a generous spread set.
Tip: Back the Bengals to Cover the Line (+4 Points) @ $1.91
Anything and everything can happen in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns have a win, the 49ers are down a quarterback, and the upsets continue to spoil your multi’s each and every week.
With five key divisional games to look forward to, Week 4 promises much of the same, but fortunately we’re here to try and tip you a winner ahead of another unpredictable week.
Will the Patriots lose back-to-back games for the first time since 2015? And who remains undefeated, the Dolphins, Rams, Chiefs, or… all three?
Be sure to check out our entire 2018 NFL Week 4 Preview below!
Los Angeles Rams
Friday 28 September, 10:20am, LA Coliseum
LA Rams 38 – Minnesota 31
Although not half as bad as last year, so far this season Thursday night games have been somewhat unappealing.
Funnily enough, you could also say the same for the Vikings. By far the biggest shocker of Week 3 was Minnesota’s home loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills, surrendering three total touchdowns to Josh Allen in the 27-6 loss.
Despite their shortcomings, the Vikings are still a potential Super Bowl contender though, but they’ll really meet their match this week against the Rams.
Los Angeles survived a few scares against the Chargers last week to win by 12-points. The Chargers understrength defence always looked vulnerable, perhaps an understatement considering Jared Goff went to work with Robert Woods racking up a pair of scores.
As far as excitement goes, this could easily be the best Thursday night game of the season, if Minnesota’s offense shows up of course.
The Vikings ran for only one first down last week while Kirk Cousins struggled to find Stephon Diggs. The two combined for only four receptions, capping off a frustrating week for Mike Zimmer’s side.
Against a Rams pass-defence that’s allowed the fewest points-per-game so far this year, it’s hard to see the Vikings having their way this week.
Los Angeles are 11-4 head-to-head in their last 15 games, and it’s likely we see that record continue to improve.
Tip: Back the Rams To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.87
New York Jets
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville 31 – NY Jets 12
Sam Darnold’s honeymoon was sweet and short, wasn’t it?
After so much promise following Week 1’s blowout defeat over the Lions, the rookie has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown in the last two weeks since.
Life in Jacksonville hasn’t been quite as sour, although the Jags’ quiet loss to the Titans last week looked a little concerning.
We always knew the real Blake Bortles was alive and well somewhere, and he reappeared last week throwing for just 155-yards.
The Jaguars failed to find the end zone against the Titans, falling 9-6. Most importantly though, the defence was still rock solid, allowing just 83-yards in the air and 150 on the ground.
New York are capable of scoring points, and we have to expect these growing pains from Darnold, but it’s tough to see the Jets doing much if their ground game proves a complete non-factor against the Jags strong pass rush.
In the last three weeks, Todd Bowles has relied heavily on Isaiah Crowell to keep the chains moving in short-yardage situations. This week, the rushing lanes won’t be there, which forces Darnold to make a play in the air.
In what is sure to be a steep learning curve for the rookie on the road, this is a game the Jaguars defence should eat up. Go ahead and back them by plenty.
Tip: Back the Jaguars 13-18 @ $4.75
New England Patriots
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Gillette Stadium
New England 38 – Miami 7
So how much do undefeated records really matter?
The Dolphins might have earned some respect, but when you consider the teams they’ve beaten – the Titans, Jets and Raiders – it’s still tough to buy into what Miami is selling.
This week poses a real test for the Phins, one that may help us decide if they are indeed a contender or pretender.
Speaking of which, let’s throw the Patriots into the same conversation. For the first time in a long time, New England looked well, basic, on offense last week. A road loss to the Lions highlighted the struggles ahead for this offensive line, while the running game still hasn’t shown any signs of life.
In terms of intrigue, this AFC East rivalry is the game to watch this week. Miami’s offense has relied on trick plays and deep throws to the likes of Kenny Stills all game long, which should really test New England’s depleted secondary.
For the Patriots, it’s all about finding some spark. Newly acquired wide receiver Josh Gordon should start this week, and he’ll need to be switch on if the Patriots hold any hope of scoring against Miami’s top rank secondary.
Tom Brady and company enter this game as the favourites, and for good reason. Miami are 0-5 head-to-head against the Patriots in their last five games, and on the road in Foxboro, a ground they haven’t won at so long as Brady was under centre, New England are the pick to bounce back.
Tip: Back the Patriots 7-12 @ $4.33
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Nissan Stadium
Tennessee 26 – Philadelphia 23
The Eagles got their man back last week, and everything looks right again on offense… kinda.
After missing half a year of football, we should expect a little bit of ring rust from Carson Wentz. He’ll likely stay cautious outside of the pocket, and with star receiver Alshon Jeffery still on the sidelines, he’s still missing his go-to guy.
What was concerning though was Wentz’s two turnovers last week in the win over the Colts.
Really, the Eagles were lucky to win that game, and if it wasn’t for Wendell Smallwood’s breakout with Jay Ajayi also injured on the sidelines, Philly are probably looking at 1-2 right now.
The good news is the Eagles are 6-2 in their last eight games on the road, and they should receive Jeffery back this week from a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile, things aren’t quite so straightforward for Tennessee. Hey the Titans are 2-1, and they lead the AFC South, but the offense has been nothing but vanilla all season long.
Similar to last season though, it’s the defence that gets the job done, which makes this weekend’s game all the more compelling. The Titans silenced Jacksonville’s pass attack last week, and held Houston to just one red zone opportunity, which they failed to convert, in Week 2.
Better yet, Tennessee have beaten up on the Eagles recently. They are 4-1 straight up when facing Philly, making them a sexy upset pick this week.
Tip: Back the Titans To Win @ $2.80
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 34 – Houston 37
You could really make a case for the Colts as a sleeper right now, even if their 1-2 record doesn’t look all that trendy.
Last week’s loss to the Eagles literally came down to a shoestring, more specifically T.Y. Hilton’s, who lost his cleat on an end zone fade from Andrew Luck that basically would have won the game.
The positives are there for Indy though, and it all starts with the pass-rush. The Colts made life tough for Carson Wentz during his return last week, sacking him five times, leading to a costly interception and a fumble.
That will come in handy this time out against the Texans, a team that by all accounts has been the most disappointing to start the season.
You hate to call a Week 3 game “must-win”, but in the South, that’s what last week’s match up against the Giants was – a chance to get things back on track.
Now, it’s another 0-3 start, and a whole lot of concern for a defence that has recorded just one interception.
To continue Houston’s misery, there’s plenty of concern on offense. DeShaun Watson is slowly getting the feel for things as he returns from a season-ending knee injury last year, but so far the star quarterback has been the highlight of the running game, which doesn’t spell great things for the Texans this week.
Indy have allowed only two rushing touchdowns and two runs of 20+ yards all year. They are also 14-2 in the head-to-head market when playing at home against the Texans. You make the call.
Tip: Back the Colts To Win @ $1.87
Green Bay Packers
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Lambeau Field
Green Bay 22 – Buffalo 0
In case you needed another harsh reminder of what Aaron Rodgers means to the Packers, take a look at last week’s loss to the Washington Redskins.
The future Hall of Famer had a fairly off game by his standards, completing only 61% of his passes in Green Bay’s 31-17 loss on the road. When No.12 has a bad day, the rest of the roster normally does too.
On the flip side, the Bills win over the Vikings was perhaps the highlight of their season, and it’s only Week 3. Josh Allen made some moves on the ground and in the air, storming ahead in the first half to put the game in doubt early.
Now traveling to Lambeau Field, Buffalo will have to replicate their blueprint to success against another NFC North powerhouse for the second week in a row.
So can they do it?
If one thing is for sure, it’s a tough to get a read on Green Bay’s defence. Blown coverage was a common theme last week against the Redskins, as corners Jaire Alexander and Davon House looked lost for much of the game.
Fortunately for Green Bay, the Bills don’t possess the same calibre receiver, which should help the Packers’ bounce-back chances this week. Expect Green Bay to equally challenge the Bills secondary with a fast-tempo offense early.
Tip: Back the Packers 7-12 @ $4.20
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, AT&T Stadium
Dallas 26 – Detroit 24
That was a confidence building win for the Lions last week, and boy did they need it.
Matt Patricia got one up over his old pals in New England, and we were once again treated to just how special Matt Stafford can be when he’s allowed time in the pocket.
Since we’re on the topic, pocket protection is something Cowboys starter Dak Prescott can only dream of right now. It was another stinker from Dallas last week as Prescott threw for 168-yards and a pair of picks, while Seattle’s defence had a field day racking up five sacks.
It’s still early, but things are getting pretty testy in Jerry World right now. Again, it’s only Week 3, but how long until head coach Jason Garrett finds himself on the hot seat?
In Garrett’s defence, he doesn’t have much to work with. Forgive us if you’ve heard this one before, but the Cowboys’ receivers just aren’t cutting the mustard.
While Ezekiel Elliott continues to gash opposing defences, he’s still not having an impact on the scoreboard. In fact, no one on the Cowboys is – they had three red zone trips last week and managed just one touchdown.
Detroit’s defence is nothing special, and after so much offseason hype, neither is Dallas’.
The Lions are high on confidence though, but there’s still so much that could go wrong this week, especially on the road in Dallas.
Best to stick with the points market in this one as these two still present plenty of question marks.
Tip: Back Under 43.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Soldier Field
Chicago 48 – Tampa Bay 10
Big battle between two division leaders that could teach us a little more about two complex offensive systems.
Let’s start with the Bucs. Tuesday’s loss to the Steelers looks better on paper than it actually was. Throwing three interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick was anything but magical, while the running game was once again complete ghost compiling only 63 total yards.
Chicago, well it wasn’t pretty, but good teams find a way to win, right?
It might be too early to label the Bears as a playoff team, especially with the jury still out on Mitch Trubisky, but to come back from 14-points down to win away from home… full credit to Chicago, they are officially exceeding expectations.
This week’s game should be fun in the sense it’s a great pass-rush facing the top team in the yards-per-game column.
Fitzpatrick was lit up last week against the Steelers, particularly in the pocket, and as we saw, when he’s put under the pump and forced to make short throws rather than just heaving it long, turnovers happen.
The market has the Bucs down as the favourite in this one, but the bookies might have it wrong. Chicago at home are a force, and Tampa’s 5-20 record when facing the Bears at Soldier Field is well… not so good.
Tip: Back the Bears To Win 1-6 @ $3.60
Monday 1 October, 3:00am, Mercedes Benz Stadium
Atlanta 36 – Cincinnati 37
You hate to write a team off in the first month of the season, but things don’t look great for the Falcons from here.
Simply put, last week should have resulted in a win for Dan Quinn’s side, especially after Matt Ryan threw for 374-yards and five touchdowns.
Instead, Atlanta found a way to lose to the Saints in overtime, while the news of Devonta Freeman’s injury only adds further salt to the Falcons’ wounds.
The Bengals were also on the losing side last week against the Panthers, sending Cincinnati spiralling back down to earth.
Andy Dalton looked invincible in the first two weeks of the season, but after throwing four interceptions against a pretty legit pass-rush, who knows, maybe we had the Bengals all wrong.
Ditto to the Falcons, the Bengals also dealt with some injury news of their own after star receiver A.J. Green pulled up with a sore groin. The news doesn’t look quite as bleak as Freeman’s, but it’s worrying nonetheless.
So… who’s winning this one?
Having won three of their last five meetings against Cincy, the Falcons are the favourites for a reason, and home-field advantage certainly helps their cause.
Interestingly enough, the Bengals have been below-par when it comes to defending the run, allowing the eighth most rushing yards per-game as well as three touchdowns.
Without Freeman, the Falcons may not be at their very best, but expect a big game from Tevin Coleman on the ground.
Tip: Back the Falcons 1-6 @ $4.50
Monday 1 October, 6:05am, State Farm Stadium
Arizona 17 – Seattle 20
To think, three years ago this would have been a primetime battle between two division rivals for NFC West supremacy.
Life comes at you fast, as the Cardinals quickly discovered last week. Up 14-0 on the Bears in the first quarter, it looked as though Arizona were on their way to their first win of the season, but low and behold, Sam Bradford managed to turn the ball over three-times in the second half to give the Bears a winning chance.
Things weren’t quite as complicated for the Seahawks, and it was encouraging to see the running game finally show signs of life behind Chris Carson in the win over the Cowboys.
Seattle’s biggest problem for much of the year has been Doug Baldwin’s absence, of course who could forget the migraine the defence has caused head coach Pete Carroll.
Last week the Seahawks looked like the Seattle of old though, picking Dak Prescott off twice and also forcing a fumble.
Against Sam Bradford and Arizona’s miserable offensive line, this should be a handy road win for Seattle to even their season at 2-2, and although David Johnson might have his way, it’s super tough to see the Cardinals playing a full four quarters of consistent football.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.95
Monday 1 October, 6:25am, Oakland Coliseum
Oakland 45 – Cleveland 42
Baker Mayfield will start Week 4, and if you’re going by his resounding second-half performance last week against the Jets, this could be a fun ride.
Tempering expectations is wise when it comes to judging a rookie quarterback – case in point Sam Darnold – but Mayfield’s ability to look defenders off last week and make pinpoint throws over the middle was certainly encouraging.
It’s a small one-game sample size, so let’s not get too carried away, but against this sloppy Raiders defence, you have to like Cleveland’s chances on the road.
Aside from a few big plays each game, Oakland have just looked dull. It was nice to see Jordy Nelson reel in six receptions last week, including his first touchdown as a Raiders, but aside from that, there’s not a whole lot of spark on either side of the ball.
One thing the Browns have been able to do well this season is rush the ball, which poses a match up nightmare against Oakland’s slow interior defence.
Isaiah Crowell exploded for a pair of scores last week, and don’t look now, but Cleveland actually rank seventh in the league in rushing yards per-game.
If the Browns can mix up the run/pass and take some of the pressure off Mayfield as he continues to adjust, Cleveland might be looking at back-to-back wins for the first time since November 2014.
Tip: Back the Browns To Win @ $2.30
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
Monday 1 October, 6:25am, MetLife Stadium
Oakland 45 – Cleveland 42
Neither the Saints nor the Giants were anything special last week, but both got the job done in a pair of gutsy wins.
New York finally cracked the winners circle against the Texans thanks to a big day from Saquon Barkley on both sides of the ball.
The Saints, well they flat out stole one over the Falcons thanks to a massive day from Drew Brees. The future Hall of Famer threw just 10 incompletions, 396-yards and three touchdowns during New Orleans’ big overtime win.
History suggests this week’s game will be close, as the Giants and the Saints last two meetings were decided by only three points.
It also suggests the Saints are the team to back, owning a tidy 4-2 head-to-head record in their last six games against Big Blue.
Since neither of these sides are particularly fierce defensively, expect this game to be quite high scoring, but it remains to be seen if the Saints can win a second straight game on the road.
With that in mind, stick to the Total Points market and play it safe.
Tip: Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Los Angeles Chargers
San Francisco 49ers
Monday 1 October, 6:25am, StubHub Center
LA Chargers 29 – San Francisco 27
Big time hopes, big time disappointment for the 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s season ending knee injury sees C.J. Beathard take over the reins under centre, and with their star running back Jerrick McKinnon also done for the year, it’s hard to find things to like about San Francisco’s offense.
On the other side of the ball this week will be the Chargers, who are yet to really kick into gear this season.
For the most part, it’s been the defence that has let Los Angeles down. Joey Bosa’s absence defending the run has been obvious, and the stats don’t lie, the Chargers have allowed the ninth most rushing yards per-game this season.
Fortunately, the offense is capable of carrying the load, even though that hasn’t exactly been the case so far. Phillip Rivers has been piling on the yards, ranking seventh among quarterbacks, and we should see him have a big day at the office against the Niners.
Alongside Garoppolo, cornerback Richard Sherman is also set to miss a few weeks with a calf injury. San Francisco’s secondary has looked second-rate all season, and it doesn’t get any easier with Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon and Mike Williams up next.
Tip: Back the Chargers 13-18 @ $4.75
Monday 1 October, 10:20am, Heinz Field
Pittsburgh 14 – Baltimore 26
The Ravens are the quiet achievers this season, sitting pretty at 2-1 ahead of this week’s big AFC North divisional game.
The highlight of the season so far has been Alex Collins, who continues to prove his worth as a valuable first-down running back.
Speaking of running backs, the Steelers look done with Le’Veon Bell. Not to worry though, the offense didn’t miss a step last week against the Bucs.
Ben Roethlisberger extended his interception streak to three games, but the veteran threw for 353-yards and three touchdowns during Pittsburgh’s narrow win on the road.
As long as we’re rewinding to last week, it’s also worth revisiting how close the Steelers defence came to blowing a 23-point lead.
All year long the Steelers defence has appeared incapable of playing out a full four quarters, which won’t hold up long against the Ravens if Joe Flacco, John Brown and Michael Crabtree are all on the same page.
These games always come down to the wire, and you only have to look at last year’s 39-38 Steelers win in Week 17 to realise the line is probably the safest play this week.
Tip: Back the Ravens To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.87
Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday 2 October, 10:15am, Broncos Stadium
Denver 23 – Kansas City 27
The Broncos tasted their first loss of the season last week against the Ravens, and they’ll be hungry to knock off the undefeated Chiefs this week to gain the upper hand in the division.
Denver’s offense is reliant on the running game, which was a little quiet last week in Baltimore. The good news is Kansas City’s strong point isn’t defending the run, but the Broncos will need to come up with some defensive stops of their own if they are to derail the Chiefs at home.
Patrick Mahomes is doing things with the football that has the whole league watching, and even if he hasn’t won a Super Bowl just yet, head coach Andy Reid seems to have trick after trick up his sleeve.
The confusing part of matching up with the Chiefs is just that, matching up, There’s playmakers everywhere you look, and when Kansas City choose to roll with the run-pass-option, good luck to opposing defences.
Perhaps the Broncos can hang with the Chiefs this week, especially considering they’ve allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards this season.
The stats don’t lie, the Broncos are 12-5 in the head-to-head market when facing the Chiefs, and if they can just maybe light a fire underneath Demaryius Thomas, who is yet to catch for over 100-yards, who knows, maybe the upset might be on.
Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $2.80
After a wild Week 3 where everything we thought we learned in the first fortnight was thrown on its head, we try to separate the real from the fake news in the NFL’s Week 4.
The Bears visit the Packers as they try to produce a second entertaining Thursday Night Football production to kickoff the round and as the oldest rivalry in the NFL, it’s looking good for compelling viewing.
With another Wembley game on the slate, fans here can pencil in a good 14 straight hours of NFL watching starting with the Saints and Dolphins.
Green Bay Packers
Friday September 29, 10:25am, Lambeau Field
Green Bay will be feeling pretty confident after their comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week while Chicago used their special teams and running game to spring an upset over AFC heavyweights Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers loves playing the Bears and looks set for a big game against a Bears defence that is giving up almost half of all third downs they face.
With only one interception in the last three years against the Bears, Rodgers will look to keep the ball moving in the air.
Chicago will want to try and keep the ball out of the hands of either quarterback by giving it to their dynamic running back duo Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
Cohen was bottled up in week 2 against the Buccaneers but has produced as a receiver in every game and has almost double the number of catches as Zach Miller.
These games on a short week tend to favour the team with better coaching and with that in mind, the combination of Rodgers and McCarthy should get them home with relatively little drama.
Back Green Bay to Cover -7 @ $1.87
New Orleans Saints
Monday October 2, 12:30am, Wembley Stadium
The NFL returns to Wembley for the second time in a week and the hope is for a slightly more competitive game than Jacksonville’s blowout of Baltimore.
By all accounts the Saints were dead to rights before their three touchdown win over Carolina might have breathed some life into their season.
Drew Brees looks like he is getting on the same page as his receivers and while the running game is still working out the right mix, there are three capable ball carriers there.
The Dolphins were saved from being shut out by the Jets on a last play touchdown and are still scrapping their way through an uneven start to the season.
This is their third game in a row away from Miami despite being the home team on Sunday flying from Los Angeles to New York and now London.
Jay Cutler will want to protect the ball after the Saints intercepted Cam Newton three times and will be looking for more opportunities.
For this week, New Orleans seems like a more settled team, having already arrived in London and having time to adjust to the location so I expect them to win this game, maybe not by 37 points but a comfortable 2 score win.
Back the Saints to Cover -2.5 @ $1.87
Monday October 2, 4:00am, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
If you look at the records and the scores, you might think a Super Bowl hangover has not hit Atlanta yet as they sit at 3-0 on top of the NFC South.
They have had a bit of luck to get there and it continued last week as a rule interpretation meant Detroit’s comeback fell short.
Matt Ryan threw his first three interceptions of the season against Detroit but otherwise is looking pretty much like his 2016 MVP level self.
Buffalo will be looking to make the Falcons one dimensional with one of the stingier defensive units in the league which is looking revitalised with Sean McDermott and his defensive pedigree running things.
Atlanta are looking to establish their new home as a fortress and while the energy might not match opening night, the Falcons should get by in this game.
Back Atlanta to Cover -7.5 @ $1.91
New York Jets
Monday October 2, 4:00am, Metlife Stadium
After putting up 10 sacks in week 1 against Houston, the Jaguars defence has slowed down significantly only notching three sacks in the last two weeks.
They are offsetting that with plenty of turnovers getting eight so far this season as they prepare to face Josh McCown who is liable to throw multiple interceptions at any point in time.
The Jets are in an interesting predicament as the fan base already have an eye on a high pick in next April’s NFL Draft.
It does not stop the players on the field still trying to play for their next big deal but it is making for an odd aura around that team this year.
Jacksonville on the other hand are looking to shake off the stink of previous seasons and are off to a good start under Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone.
Back Jacksonville to Cover -3 @ $1.85
Monday October 2, 4:00am, Firstenergy Stadium
Cleveland were expected to be in for another long season full of struggles as rookie Deshone Kizer adapted to life in the NFL.
Currently winless they come up against the Bengals who are also looking for their first victory of the season.
Cincinnati were in a make or break year as Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis look to establish themselves as long term solutions.
The Bengals played almost as well as they could have last week with the Dalton to A.J. Green connection getting going to the tune of 10 catches, 111 yards and a touchdown.
Until there is a clearer idea about what the Bengals are, steer clear of them even when it is against the Browns who have shown a bit of fight this year.
Monday October 2, 4:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Traditionally one of the more violent NFL rivalries, the Ravens and Steelers are almost always in contention for the division.
Pittsburgh have developed a reputation of a team that will play to the level of its opponent and this game could be determined by how they see the Ravens.
With the league’s worst passing attack and a mediocre running game, the Ravens have been able to get to a 2-1 record on the back of a defensive unit that was run all over last week.
Historically this game is always a tight contest with the game decided by one score and Pittsburgh will continue that trend here with a hard fought win.
Back Pittsburgh to Win by 1-6 Points @ $3.30
New England Patriots
Monday October 2, 4:00am, Gillette Stadium
Carolina will go as far as Cam Newton’s shoulder will let them, he has had some poor throws with questionable accuracy so far but has also been able to make some big plays.
New England’s defence has given up plenty of yards and points so far so it could be a case of which side of the ball is able to make more big plays against the other one.
This game comes down to whether Newton and company are able to generate enough scoring plays for them to keep up with Tom Brady who is currently leading the league in passing yards.
One way or another there will be a lot of points scored in this game whether it is a shootout or one team blowing out the other so take the points while they are on offer.
Back the Over 49.5 @$1.91
Monday October 2, 4:00am, U.S. Bank Stadium
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only side that Case Keenum is able to play well against it seems, posting a significantly higher quarterback rating against them than the rest of the league combined.
Detroit has a quarterback in great form and an offensive system he is very comfortable in and despite falling short, the rally against the Falcons last week will provide them with some (albeit small) comfort.
It is uncertain who will operate under centre for the Vikings with Sam Bradford’s knee still appearing troublesome however last week showed that they can still win games without him.
Until the status of Bradford is known, it’s hard to give a clear pick for this game so steer clear of the Vikings for now.
Los Angeles Rams
Monday October 2, 4:00am, AT&T Stadium
A game for the fans of line play as two of the best units in the league face off as the Cowboys host the Rams.
Dallas has built an excellent offensive line that has successfully powered their ground game but they face a real tough assignment in the LA Rams which have all their stars back and ready to cause some trouble.
When they went against a similarly talented group in Denver two weeks ago, star back Zeke Elliot was limited to a mere eight yards and the Rams will need to keep him to a similar total if they want to have any success.
On the other side Jared Goff finally looks like he might live up to the billing of being the number one overall pick with a great game against the 49ers.
Dallas has shown some vulnerability defensively, particularly against the pass but DeMarcus Lawrence should add to his sack total with a big day here.
Back Dallas to Win -6.5 @ $1.95
Monday October 2, 4:00am, NRG Stadium
Two young quarterbacks that look set to go head to head for the AFC South for years to come face off for the first time in the NFL.
In the draft process this year Watson received comparisons to the Titans Mariota and with the encouraging signs the rookie has shown in his two and a half games so far, this could be a highlight game.
Throwing for over 300 yards against the Patriots in New England is a sign that Watson can make the NFL throws including a great back shoulder pass to Ryan Griffin.
Mariota on the other side has two years of experience behind him and has an offensive system geared to his strengths.
The Titans will be going right at the strength of the Texans with their superstar defensive front seven but as their game against Seattle showed, they are not one to back down from a challenge.
That extra experience and attitude will make a big difference in this game as the Titans are able to get up in an exciting game.
Back Tennessee to Win @ $1.80
San Francisco 49ers
Monday October 2, 7:05am, University of Phoenix Stadium
San Francisco gave fans an offensive explosion in their Thursday Night Shootout loss to the LA Rams while the Cardinals faded badly on Monday Night Football going down to the Cowboys.
The mismatch here looks to be in the respective ground games of the two teams with Carlos Hyde off to an excellent start this season while the Cardinals are struggling to get anything going in the absence of David Johnson.
Those struggles have put the pressure all on Carson Palmer’s shoulder’s and at this stage of his career he cannot get things going with Larry Fitzgerald alone.
Brian Hoyer on the other hand is not going to set the world alight but he does have a safety net on hand with Hyde and that is where the difference will come in and the 49ers could spring an upset as the gap between these two sides is not as big as the market might suggest.
Back San Francisco to win @ $3.80
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants
Monday October 2, 7:05am, Raymond Jame Stadium
Tampa had a day to forget in their visit to Minnesota while the Giants are having a season to forget, dropping their third straight game on the back of a 61 yard field goal attempt by a rookie kicker.
This is a series that the Giants have historically dominated, winning the last five meetings between the two.
Even with that in mind it is hard to see the Giants getting up in this game as the team is still yet to find its stride.
Odell Beckham should have a big game against a questionable Tampa secondary but the Giants do not appear to be able to give Manning enough time to get his throws off.
Back Tampa to Win -3 @ $1.91
Los Angeles Chargers
Monday October 2, 7:05am, Paul Brown Stadium
Perhaps the most interesting part of the LA Chargers home games this year will be tracking whether or not the stadium is full and how many opposition fans.
It’s safe to say the local community have not embraced their new team just yet and the fact that they are 0-3 will not draw in the crowds.
After two heartbreaking losses the Chargers were comfortably beaten by the Chiefs and they have injury concerns with star back Melvin Gordon who has been inconsistent with his production so far.
Philadelphia are not exactly setting the world alight but have found a way to get themselves to 2-1 and tied for the division lead.
Carson Wentz lead a drive to given them an opportunity to beat the Giants last week and they pulled it off with a long field goal.
The Eagles are the better side here and while the cross country flight will take it out of them, they should be able to win.
Back Philadelphia to Win @ $2.10
Monday October 2, 7:25am, Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Denver appear to be heading for the classification of a true up and down team that is hard to get a read on.
Momentum gained through two wins, including a resounding thumping of Dallas was completely lost with a shock defeat to the Buffalo Bills last week.
Oakland suffered a similarly surprising defeat in Washington on the premiere Sunday Night Football broadcast but it was the manner that they went down that was so surprising.
Comprehensively beaten on the road, the Raiders looked like anything but Super Bowl contenders and they now have another tough assignment in one of the NFL’s most imposing venues.
The season series has been split between these sides the last two times they have met and it would not be surprising to see this year follow suit.
On a neutral field Oakland would be slight favourites but in Mile High it is hard to go against the Broncos.
Back Denver to Win by 1-6 @ $3.60
Monday October 2, 11:30am, Century Link Field
Admittedly, the broadcasters might be regretting this choice as the feature game for the week as the Colts travel to the Pacific Northwest.
Indianapolis’ win against the Browns was anything but convincing and with the relatively poor roster across the board, it is easy to see why Seattle are such heavy favourites.
It is not the traditional Seahawks team that we are all used to seeing, as they undergo some September struggles which have been quite common under Pete Carroll.
Their vaunted run defence has been gashed repeatedly and if the Colts had anyone capable of running the ball you might give them a chance.
It might be easy to overthink this game but in this case, take Seattle at home and in primetime to get their job done, however from a gambling perspective there is not a whole lot of value there.
Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday October 3, 11:30am, Arrowhead Stadium
The weekend of action ends with a massive clash at Arrowhead Stadium as the best team of September the Chiefs take on a confident Redskins outfit.
Washington created havoc up front and they will have a tough task to repeat that performance against a Kansas City offence that has become surprisingly versatile with the way they integrate the unique skills of their weapons.
Kareem Hunt will gain more and more attention as the season goes along given his phenomenal start to the season but the problem for opponents is that the more they focus on him, the more it will open up Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen down the field.
Andy Reid has created a side that has opponents off balance right now and it could be a few more games before teams get to figure them out so they should get by here.
Back Kansas City to Win -6.5 @ $1.87
There are plenty of clashes between divisional rivals to get excited about in week 4 of the 2016 NFL season.
The AFC South is incredibly open this season and all four teams in that division will face off another a rival this weekend, while the Buffalo Bills have the chance to upstage the New England Patriots in the AFC East.
Throw in the battle between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons and this is one of the most exciting weeks in the early stages of the season, so don’t miss out on any of our tips below.
Friday September 30, 10:25am, Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals 22 - Miami Dolphins 7
This is a crucial game for both sides that take an 1-2 record into this clash.
The Cincinnati Bengals were expected to be right in the fight for the AFC North title, but the risk losing touch with Pittsburgh following losses to both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos.
Cincinnati will go into this clash as clear favourites to return to winning form and they have won six out of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.
Miami scored their first win of the season over the hapless Cleveland Browns, but it was a far from pretty performance and they required overtime to get the job done.
It is fair to say that the Dolphins have struggled to click this season and the data does not suggest they can record an upset victory against the Bengals – they have won just two of their past ten matches as away underdogs and have been a losing betting proposition against the line.
Cincinnati should be able to return to winning form, but there is no real edge at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Monday October 3, 3:00am, Wembley Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 - Indianapolis Colts 27
It has been a slow start to the season for both these AFC South rivals and they meet in a crucial clash at Wembley Stadium in London.
The Indianapolis Colts finally recorded their first win of the season over the San Diego Chargers last weekend and they are narrow favourites to make it two wins on the trot.
The Colts have generally struggled as the punter’s elect in the past 12 months and they have won just five of their past ten games as favourites, while they are 3-7 against the line.
Jacksonville are still chasing their first win of the season following their narrow loss to the Baltimore Ravens and the pressure is really building on a side that was expected to challenge for playoffs contention.
The Jaguars have won just two of their past ten games as underdogs, but they are 5-4-1 against the line with a start.
I expect this to be a very tight affair and I am keen to back the Jaguars with a start of 2.5 points.
Back Jacksonville To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
Monday October 3, 3:00am, NRG Stadium
Houston Texans 27 - Tennessee Titans 20
The Houston Texans were convincingly outplayed by the New England Patriots last Friday, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form against the Tennessee Titans.
The Texans are a far better team than that performance suggests and they are a better outfit than the Titans on both sides of the football.
Houston have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are 7-3 against the line in that scenario.
Tennessee struggled on offence against the Oakland Raiders and it is fair to say that it could be a very long season for Titans fans.
The Titans have won just three of their past ten games as away favourites and they have an identical record against the line.
Houston are one of the safest betting plays of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 6.5 points comfortably.
Back Houston To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Monday October 3, 3:00am, FedEx Field
Washington Redskins 31 - Cleveland Browns 20
The Washington Redskins recorded their first win of the season over divisional rivals New York and they are dominant favourites to win again against the Cleveland Browns.
Washington have improved each time that they have played this season and if they are able to do that again than a victory over the Browns is highly likely.
The issue for the Redskins is that they have really struggled as home favourites in recent years – they have won just four of their past ten games in this scenario and they are 2-8 against the line.
Cleveland went extremely close to recording their first win of the season against the Miami Dolphins and Terrelle Pryor was simply incredible as a triple threat on offence.
The Browns have won just one of their past ten games as away underdogs and their record against the line is an unconvincing 4-6.
Both these teams are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of.
New York Jets
Monday October 3, 3:00am, MetLife Stadium
New York Jets 17 - Seattle Seahawks 27
Seattle returned to winning form against the San Francisco 49ers, but they will face a much tougher assignment against the New York Jets this weekend.
Seattle will only start this game as narrow favourites, but they are a very safe bet as away favourites and have won five of their past six games in this situation.
The New York Jets produced their worst performance of the season to date when they went down to the Kansas City Chiefs and they will need to improve to have any chance of beating the Seahawks.
The Jets don’t start many games as away underdogs, but they don’t have a bad record in this scenario and they are 7-2-1 against the line.
There is evidence to suggest that New York are capable of winning this game, but the $1.80 available for a Seattle victory does look over the odds and they should be able to get the job done.
Back Seattle To Win @ $1.80
New England Patriots
Monday October 3, 3:00am, Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots 0 - Buffalo Bills 16
The quarterback dramas have continued at New England throughout the week and we are still unsure who will be under centre for the Patriots.
The scary thing is that it probably won’t matter – they are still going to be extremely tough to beat.
New England are now staring at a record of 4-0 without Tom Brady in the side and they are dominate favourites to take their record to just that.
The Patriots have won eight of their past nine games as home favourites for a handy profit, while they are 6-2-1 against the line in this scenario.
Buffalo produced the best performance of their season to date against the Arizona Cardinals and they will need another performance at that level to have any chance of recording an upset win.
The Bills have won just two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are just 2-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
The New England train should just keep rolling along and they are a safe bet to record another comfortable win.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-7 Points)
Monday October 3, 3:00am, Georgia Dome
Atlanta Falcons 48 - Carolina Panthers 33
The Atlanta Falcons scored an emphatic victory over division rivals New Orleans on Tuesday, but they face a much tougher assignment against the Carolina Panthers last weekend.
Atlanta have surpassed expectations during the NFL season to date and they do have the offensive firepower to match it with an outfit like the Panthers.
The Falcons will go into this clash as underdogs, but they have won five out of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 7-3 against the line in this situation.
This is a big game for Carolina after they slumped to a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings last weekend.
The Panthers have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites, but their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 4-6.
Atlanta generally produce their best football in front of their home fans at the Georgia Dome and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of three points.
Back Atlanta To Beat The Line (+3 Points)
Monday October 3, 3:00am, MT&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens 27 - Oakland Raiders 28
The Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders have both made very positive starts to the season.
They haven’t played the toughest competition, but the Ravens have made a flawless start to the season and they are clear favourites to record their fourth win on the trot.
Baltimore have now won six of their past ten games as home favourites, but their record against the line in this situation is still a very poor 2-7-1.
Oakland bounced back from their disappointing defeat to the Atlanta Falcons to grind out a narrow victory over the Tennessee Titans.
The Raiders have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs for a narrow profit and they have been a highly profitable 7-3 against the line in this situation.
Oakland continue to prove a positive betting play and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 3.5 points.
Back Oakland To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
Monday October 3, 3:00am, Soldier Field
Chicago Bears 17 - Detroit Lions 14
The Detroit Lions have made a credible to the NFL season and they will go into this clash with the Chicago Bears as favourites.
Detroit beat the Indianapolis Colts in the opening week of the season and they were only narrowly denied by both the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers.
The issue for the Lions in this clash is that their record as away favourites is far from convincing and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario since 2013.
Chicago were nothing short of dreadful against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and they have never looked like winning a game so far this season.
Soldier Field has been far from a fortress for Chicago in recent seasons and they have won just one of their ten games as home underdogs, while they are 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
This is another game in which I don’t trust either of the teams from a betting perspective.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday October 3, 6:05am, Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 - Denver Broncos 27
The defending Super Bowl champions have made an excellent start to their defence and they have a very winnable clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Denver showed that they have no trouble winning on the road when they beat Cincinnati last weekend and they have won seven out of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are 5-4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Tampa Bay started their season with a victory against the Atlanta Falcons, but they have season suffered disappointing defeats at the hands of both Arizona and Los Angeles.
There were some positive in their defeat at the hands of the Rams and Jameis Winston will need to have another very big game for the Buccaneers to have any chance of winning this game.
Tampa Bay have won just two of their past ten games as home underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a flat 4-6.
Denver should be able to continue their flawless start to the season and the line of three points does not look like anywhere near enough.
Back Denver To Beat The Line (-3 Points)
Los Angeles Rams
Monday October 3, 6:25am, University Of Phoenix Stadium
Arizona Cardinals 13 - Los Angeles Rams 17
This is a crucial game for both sides.
Arizona have recorded just one win this season following their shock loss to the Buffalo Bills last weekend, but they will still go into this game as clear favourites.
The Cardinals had problems on both sides of the football against the Bills, but they are a better side than that performance indicates and the market suggests that they will have no problems bouncing back.
Arizona have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites, but they have often unperformed against the betting market and they are 4-5-1 against the line in this situation.
The Los Angeles Rams were nothing short of disgraceful against the San Francisco 49ers in the first week of the NFL season, but they have bounce back to record fighting victories over both Seattle and Tampa Bay.
It is always tough to know what to expect from the Rams, but they generally struggle on the road and they have not proven to be a positive betting proposition as away underdogs.
Arizona are clearly the team to beat in this fixture, but they are well under the odds at their current price and there is no real value in this fixture.
San Diego Chargers
New Orleans Saints
Monday October 3, 6:25am, Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego Chargers 34 - New Orleans Saints 35
The New Orleans Saints head into this clash under plenty of pressure after starting their season with three start losses.
Defence is once again a very big problem for New Orleans and it is sure to be an issue again against the Chargers and Phillip Rivers.
New Orleans will start this game as clear underdogs, but this has been a position they have thrived in in recent seasons – they have won four of their past ten games and are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
San Diego are yet to produce a poor performance this season, but they still have only one win from their first three games.
Favourtism is not a position that the Chargers have thrived in in the past couple of seasons and they are just 3-7 against the line in their past ten games as home favourites.
This should be a shoot-out and I am more than happy to back the Saints with a start of four points.
Back New Orleans To Beat The Line (+4 Points)
San Francisco 49ers
Monday October 3, 6:25am, Levi’s Stadium
Dallas Cowboys 24 - San Francisco 49ers 17
It has been a promising start to the new era at the Dallas Cowboys as Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliot have been able to lead the franchise to two wins from their three games.
Dallas were particularly impressive against the Chicago Bears and a repeat of that performance should be more than enough to account for the San Francisco 49ers.
The Cowboys have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites for a healthy profit and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
San Franisco started their season with an impressive win over the Los Angeles Rams, but they have since suffered big defeats at the hands of the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.
This is a team that clearly has problem on offence, but they have generally over-performed as home underdogs and are 6-3-1 against the line in this scenario.
The market looks to have got this game just about right and it is not a fixture that I am keen to get involved in from a betting perspective.
Kansas City Chiefs
Monday October 3, 10:30am, Heinz Field
Pittsburgh Steelers 43 - Kansas City Chiefs 14
This will be a very interesting clash between two teams that currently have a 2-1 record.
Pittsburgh were stunned by a rampant Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites after they started their season with wins over both Washington and Cincinnati.
The Steelers have an excellent record at Heinz Field and they have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 6-3-1 against the line.
Kansas City returned to their best form with a dominant performance against the New York Jets and their defence will need to produce another stellar performance to have any chance against the Steelers.
The Chiefs have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
I expect Pittsburgh to return to winning form in fairly emphatic fashion and they should be able to cover the line of 5.5 points comfortably.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
New York Giants
Tuesday October 4, 10:30am, US Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings 24 - New York Giants 10
The Minnesota Vikings produced their best performance of the season to date to upstage the Carolina Panthers and they will take plenty of confidence into this clash with the New York Giants.
Minnesota’a defence made Cam Newton look like a very average quarterback and Sam Bradford appears to be fitting in well with the new system.
Minnesota are clear favourites in this clash and they have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 8-2 against the line in this scenario.
New York suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of the Washington Redskins and they will need to produce an improved performance on both sides of the football to beat the Vikings.
The Giants have generally struggled away from home in the past couple of seasons and they have won just three of their past ten games as away underdogs, while they are 4-5-1 against the line.
Minnesota are one of the safest bets of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 4.5 points.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)