The NFL is going international in Week 4 with the league playing a regular season game in Ireland for the first time.
A very busy day kicks off with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Minnesota Vikings from Croke Park before a busy 3:00am slate headlined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The late afternoon window is headlined by a pair of heavyweights desperately trying to avoid falling to 1-3 as Kansas City faces Baltimore.
Monday wraps up with Micah Parsons returning to Dallas to face his former team the Cowboys in a game with plenty of off field drama to entertain us before and after kickoff.
Check out our full NFL Week 4 Preview below.
Week 4 kicks off with an NFC West game that really could go either way as a pair of 2-1 teams face off.
The Cardinals are coming off an ugly loss in San Francisco but that might have said more about the 49ers dictating the tempo of that game at home as opposed to anything about the Cardinals.
As for the Seahawks, they had their own ugly loss to San Francisco in Week 1, but have shown steady improvement since and blew out the hopeless Saints 44-13 last weekend.
There are any number of player performance bets that could be taken here, and I like this combination for a Same Game Multi.
Arizona’s running game suffered a blow last week with James Connor lost for the season, but it does open up more work for second year back Trey Benson.
Kyler Murray is going to have to use his legs on some more designed runs and scrambles as he tries to escape the Seahawks relentless pass rush.
However the Seahawks are going to be very excited about facing this Cardinals secondary, who have given up the third most yards in the league through three weeks.
Which points towards Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba linking up for a few big plays in this game.
Thanks to the Steelers owner’s time serving as the US Ambassador to Ireland under the 45th President’s administration, the Steelers have parlayed the Emerald Isle into a de facto home market.
While both of these teams are coming off wins last week, there is a real chance that both were false dawns.
Pittsburgh benefitted from five New England turnovers in their seven point win, despite being outclassed for the majority of the game.
Meanwhile, Minnesota absolutely demolished Cincinnati, but they were also aided by five Bengals turnovers and a wretched performance from Jake Browning.
While the Vikings are going to be sticking with Carson Wentz at quarterback, he looks far more capable of doing something productive than Aaron Rodgers.
Add in a Vikings defence that is stifling opposing quarterbacks and this looks like it should be another Minnesota win.
There may be no two teams in better moods than the Lions and Browns after both recorded big wins last weekend.
Detroit had a big win in Baltimore, reminding everyone of their heavyweight status while Cleveland stunned Green Bay with a walk off field goal.
However the market is not expecting that to be a franchise altering win for the Browns, with a pretty big discrepancy in price in favour of the Lions.
Justifiably so, they have the runs on the board and that offence is rolling week in, week out.
While Cleveland’s defence did just hold Green Bay to 10 points, it was only two weeks ago they gave up 41 in Baltimore.
I’m backing a big day for Detroit as they roll to another big win with their running backs leading the way.
If New England holds on to the ball even one more time last week, they beat the Steelers, but this young team is still making far too many dumb mistakes to back with any sort of confidence.
Especially as a 5.5 point favourite over a Carolina team that just blitzed Atlanta 30-0.
But just like the Browns above, that said almost as much if not more about Atlanta’s follies on the day than Carolina starting to turn the corner.
I really cannot make a good case either way without a lot of projection (and hope), so I’m going to look at the individual markets for value.
Rhamondre Stevenson has had some major fumbling issues with nine since the start of 2024 and two critical ones last week, so New England might have to turn to his backups.
While there was a lot of hope for rookie Treyveon Henderson in preseason, he has not had his breakout moment yet and Antonio Gibson seems more likely to get the lead role.
Gibson is a way down the touchdown scorer market but assuming Stevenson gets benched, Gibson is the experienced hand to turn to.
Giants head coach Brian Daboll confirmed the inevitable this week, benching Russell Wilson for rookie Jaxson Dart.
It might not be enough to hand the team their first win of the season this weekend as they host the red hot Chargers who have won their first three games.
Especially when you see what this Chargers defence has done in the last couple of weeks, it could be a rough debut for Dart.
Normally you would worry about the Chargers making the cross country trip but they have already gone from Sao Paolo to Las Vegas to LA and now to New Jersey so they’ve already adjusted to playing away from SoFi Stadium.
We should see some positive signs from the Giants but the Chargers are just the better team.
Buffalo has had 10 days to prepare for New Orleans and if all goes to plan, they should have this game in control by halftime.
Perhaps the only cause for concern is the Bills looking past this game just because of how bad the Saints have been.
But that offence has been on fire to start the season, putting up over 30 points in all three wins and the Saints don’t look like slowing anyone down.
Philadelphia might be 3-0 and the reigning champions, but they are definitely vulnerable and primed for an upset.
Last week’s seven point win over the Rams was their biggest victory of the season and while it was encouraging for them to come back from 26-7 down, it took a miraculous field goal block on the final play to seal the victory.
They are a better team than Tampa Bay but they have also ground their way to a 3-0 record with their wins coming by a combined six points.
All signs are pointing towards a close game with plenty of points and with both teams topping 20 points in every game this season, I’m jumping on the over.
Is there anything to like about this game between winless teams?
Houston might be the most disappointing team of the season to date and CJ Stroud has gone from MVP candidate to a potential bust in 13 months.
If they lose this game to a bad Titans team that is starting a three game road trip, then you have to wonder if we might see some sweeping changes.
But I’m not expecting Houston to lose, they are too good to fall to 0-4 and they’ll find a way to score enough points to win, even if it’s closer than they would like it to be.
There have been few total team performances as bad as Atlanta’s over the last few seasons.
To call it horrific would have been an understatement and now they have to respond this week against Washington.
It is not an easy proposition as it sounds like Washington might be welcoming back Jayden Daniels after missing last week’s win over Las Vegas.
Bottom line, Washington is the better team and anything less than a comfortable win for them would be a big surprise, even if they have to start Marcus Mariota.
In all honesty, it was a big surprise to realise that this was a battle between a 3-0 49ers team and a 2-1 Jaguars side.
San Francisco has been a real slog to watch this season, winning three tight games, two of which were with backup Mac Jones at quarterback.
However their defence suffered a big blow last week, losing pass rusher Nick Bosa (again) to a torn ACL.
Jacksonville on the other hand did lose to Cincinnati in Week 2, but have recorded wins over Carolina and Houston with the offence flashing under new coach Liam Coen.
I’m giving the Jags a slight edge in this game, solely because of the 49ers roster already dropping like flies with injuries and the visitors should be able to move the ball enough to get home.
Do we have to start taking the Colts seriously for the first time since Andrew Luck?
At 3-0 they just keep finding ways to win but this trip to Los Angeles will tell us a lot about this team.
They have shown just enough competence to make me think they have a chance of knocking off the Rams who will no doubt be happy to come home after their two game road trip to Tennessee and Philadelphia.
We should see the running backs take centre stage and I’m expecting both star men to see plenty of work in goal line situations.
Taylor is leading the league in yards and is coming off a three score game, while Kyren Williams is always the primary back inside the five.
Even on the other side of the world, you can smell the desperation emanating from Chiefs and Ravens HQ with both hoping to avoid falling into a 1-3 hole.
This game just means more to Kansas City, who are already two games and a tiebreaker behind the Chargers, even though they have looked average at best.
Truth be told, if it was any other NFL team that did not have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, they would be getting ripped for playing pretty poorly through the opening three weeks.
Baltimore has shown life and both of their losses came against Buffalo and Detroit, two really good teams.
However they are only one game behind the very mediocre Bengals and Steelers in the AFC North and by the time we hit December they should have overcome that deficit.
It won’t be pretty, the Chiefs are going to need something special from their defence to get them through this game but the more desperate team as a home underdog is too good to pass up.
It looks like Las Vegas’s opening day win in New England might have been a false dawn with the Raiders thoroughly outclassed by the Chargers and Commanders in the last two weeks.
Things clicked in Chicago last week as the Bears offence showed just what it was capable of throwing all over the Cowboys secondary.
Chicago’s offence does not have to be as good as they were here, but I’m expecting that group to have another big day against the Raiders defence.
You could spend the next few hours diving into why this game is one of the most dramatic ones all season with Micah Parsons returning to the team that traded him five weeks ago.
But let’s just keep this simple, Green Bay is going to be much better than they were in Cleveland last week, where they were caught looking ahead.
Dallas’s secondary has been torched in the last two weeks, giving up over 400 yards to Russell Wilson and four touchdown passes to Caleb Williams.
This is the sort of game Jordan Love dreams of and I’ll back him to throw the Packers to victory.
This Monday Night Football double header will really test the fans’ loyalty starting with this battle of the 0-3 dumpster fires.
Miami has been thoroughly underwhelming, but they at least showed some fight in Buffalo last week in a game they could have very easily packed in.
New York went close to upsetting Tampa Bay but couldn’t close the deal and they will like their chances of getting off the mark here, especially if Jusitn Fields is able to return from his concussion which is no sure thing at the moment.
But Miami still seem to be fighting for their coach and they have more to play for, knowing that things could spiral out of control quickly if they fall to 0-4.
It won’t be pretty but at this point it does not need to be.
Denver’s two game losing streak is going to come to an end when they take on the Bengals.
Cincinnati looked lost without Joe Burrow last week and Jake Browning was out of his depth against the Vikings defence.
The bad news for Cincinnati is that Denver’s defence is better than Minnesota’s and that sets up for another bad day for the Bengals.
This one shouldn’t be close and I’ll back a comfortable Denver win combined with another JK Dobbins touchdown.
2024
If Week 3 was headlined by the nine teams desperately trying to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole, then Week 4 is all about the big time tests taking place across the AFC.
The unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers go on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts with their defence looking to continue their impressive start to the season.
Super Bowl favourites Kansas City will face division rivals, the LA Chargers who have been battling injuries all over their roster.
Meanwhile in the headline battle of the week, the Baltimore Ravens, who got off the mark in Dallas last week, will face the 3-0 Buffalo Bills who are led by MVP contender Josh Allen.
It’s the last weekend of NFL action before the byes begin so let’s make the most of the full 16-game slate with our previews and best bets below.
The two divisional games on Thursday Night Football have been ugly blowouts so far and this one has the potential to go the same way.
It all depends on which version of Dallas decides to show up, because man for man they outclass this New York roster several times over.
However as we saw last week, there is the danger of the team not being ready to go like they were against Baltimore needing to dig themselves out of a 28-6 hole (and very nearly doing so).
But even if they show up just for the first half they should be able to take care of this Giants team who won’t be able to slow down the Cowboys’ offence or have an answer for Micah Parsons on defence.
Dallas to Win by 14+ @ $3.05
Denver’s East Coast swing continues with a trip to New Jersey to take on the Jets, with the Broncos hoping to back up from their big win in Tampa last weekend.
Sean Payton’s side might be trending in the right direction, outscoring opponents 32-7 across their last six quarters of action.
The Jets showed just how good they can be, ruthlessly defeating division rivals New England last weekend, but they still have some concerns over consistency and motivation.
They should have the edge playing at home, but the line of over a touchdown looks a bit too high for a team like Denver who might just have a bit of fight in them yet.
Denver to Cover +7.5 @ $1.90
This time four weeks ago, nobody would have expected the Bengals to be the 0-3 team participating in this game staring at the reality their season might be over already.
After a frustrating home loss to Washington on Monday Night Football, they have to fight not only against their opponents but also against history as they try to salvage a year that began with Super Bowl aspirations.
Carolina actually looked pretty decent last week against Las Vegas, but it does come with the massive red flag that Vegas was clearly only partially interested in playing that game.
I’m not ready to assume Carolina has suddenly become a capable team and will happily take them on at the line.
At some point the Bengals are going to start winning games and this is their best chance to kick themselves into gear.
Cincinnati to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Exactly how concerned should we be about Jacksonville right now?
In a seemingly boom or bust situation against Buffalo last week they busted out like a Black Jack player that hit on 16 and got a Jack.
They had absolutely no answer for anything Buffalo did and looked like a team that was massively overmatched.
While Houston is not quite on the same level as Buffalo, they are still a good team that I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt to after last week’s big loss in Minnesota.
Sometimes the defensive coordinators have a day against a young QB and that’s what happened with CJ Stroud.
Jacksonville does not have a defence that is capable of replicating what Minnesota did and their offence looks completely out of sorts, this could get very ugly.
Houston to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
Despite this being a game between a pair of 1-2 teams, this is one that has no shortage of intrigue about it.
Let’s start with Chicago, as Caleb Williams is undergoing a rough start to life in the NFL with the rookie quarterback forced to run for his life far more than anyone should be comfortable with.
Which will be music to the ears of the LA Rams whose pass rush has undergone an overhaul but could be set for a coming out party against this Bears offensive line.
Sean McVay does not have a great team at his disposal but they are good enough and most importantly fighting hard at this point of the season, which is all you can ask for.
Don’t be surprised if the combination of the Rams pass rush and the savvy veteran Matthew Stafford is enough to get the Rams home here.
LA Rams to Cover +3 @ $1.90
Based on the Packers favouritism (at publish), it sure seems like Jordan Love is set to return to action in this big time NFC North battle.
On the other side of the equation, Minnesota looks like they might have avoided a major scare with Sam Darnold avoiding major injury against Houston last week in his breakout performance.
This really is a game that can go either way, so instead of trying to force a pick one way or another, let’s have a dip into the touchdown markets.
Justin Jefferson has scored in all three of Minnesota’s games and his teammate Aaron Jones will be eager for a big day against the team that jettisoned him for another running back.
Jayden Reed has been a reliable target for both Packers quarterbacks this year and the likely return of Love makes him a far more dangerous option in the red zone so let’s group those three up to combine for a trio of touchdowns.
Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed and Justin Jefferson to Combine for 3+ Touchdowns @ $3.60
Has the New Orleans bubble burst after last week’s ugly loss to Philadelphia?
Based on the injury report issued after that game, there is a lot to be nervous about, especially with a couple of major concerns in the middle of the offensive line.
Atlanta will be fired up after a hard fought and kind of controversial loss to Kansas City last weekend, ready to get themselves back on track after showing they can push the reigning champions.
While Atlanta’s pass rush is hardly made up of Reggie White and Lawrence Taylor type players, they look like a team that is good enough to capitalise on the Saints battered roster.
Atlanta to Win @ $1.73
Another team that is dealing with a high number of injury concerns is the Philadelphia Eagles, some of which were inflicted by the Saints last week.
It seems like they will be going into this game very short at receiver with DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown listed as out on the first practice report of the week.
That puts a lot more pressure on the running game which will have to function without lineman Lane Johnson.
The good news is Saquon Barkley is that good he can pick up a lot of the slack and we might see Jalen Hurts working the ball to the tight ends a bit more.
Meanwhile, Tampa will want to put last week’s disastrous home performance against Denver behind them with a good performance here and show they are better than the seven points they put up.
Both teams have at least 20 points in them and the over looks to be the best play in this market.
Over 44 Points @ $1.90
This Pittsburgh Steelers defence is on a whole other level this season and it is led by TJ Watt who may or may not be possessed by a supernatural being.
So far this season, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year has five tackles for a loss including three sacks and one fumble recovery.
As a team the Steelers have conceded 26 points through 12 quarters, an almost unheard of run in 2024 (unless you are playing the Tua-less Dolphins three weeks in a row).
It all sets up for a very long day for Anthony Richardson and the rest of the Colts offence.
Getting their second year quarterback through the game injury free might be all Indianapolis needs to do to consider this game a success.
Pittsburgh to Win and Under 40.5 Points @ $3.25
This game might have been an afterthought a few weeks ago but now it is the pick of the late second window on Monday morning.
Scoring might be down overall in 2024 but both of these teams appear to be on a roll offensively so points should be pretty easy to come by.
Washington has found a groove with rookie Jayden Daniels and finally had their breakthrough game last week, putting up 38 points on the Bengals.
Meanwhile Arizona is going to be desperate for a bounce back effort on offence after being held to just ten points by Detroit.
Perhaps there is a bit of value to be had on the Commanders outright but the total is the far more appealing play with the scoring potential for both teams.
Over 50.5 Points @ $1.90
Spare a thought for the New England Patriots in this game, at full health they were not that good but now with an injury ravaged roster, especially at offensive line, this could be a miserable trip out west.
San Francisco might be dealing with a few injury issues of their own but they have talent and depth to offset that.
Not to mention the desire to atone for a horrific collapse in LA last week and thanks to the way the season was scheduled, the Pats are the sacrificial lamb.
San Francisco to Win by 14+ @ $2.30
Are the Raiders closer to the team that went into Baltimore in Week 2 and pulled off an impressive upset over the Ravens?
Or are they more like the team that came back home in Week 3 and got demolished by the Carolina Panthers?
The Browns are no easier to get a read on, going 1-2 against a schedule that might turn out to be pretty soft, losing convincingly to Dallas, scraping by the Jags on the road before losing to the Giants at home.
This is the perfect game to pull out the old rule when you have two bad teams facing off, take the under given home field advantage might not exist in Vegas especially.
Under 37 Points @ $1.90
Take it from the quarterback himself, the Chiefs have not played that well this season but in spite of those struggles they have still started off with a 3-0 record.
That’s what good teams do, but at some point a blowout win is coming and it might be over the Chargers this weekend.
Providing a full list of injuries for the home side would take up way too much space, but the important names to be aware of include Justin Herbert, Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, Josh Palmer and Hayden Hurst.
Actually that list is just on offence, the defence looks like it will be without Joey Bosa through injury and Derwin James through suspension.
When you consider all of that, the Chiefs giving only 7.5 points on the road might be generous.
Kansas City to Cover -7.5 @ $1.90
Was last week the kick start the Ravens needed?
It was not perfect, almost completely collapsing in Dallas but they held on for a much needed victory.
Now they have a big game at home to get themselves back to 2-2 heading into October, which is not the worst position to be in.
It won’t come easy however with the Bills producing a couple of statement wins to sit at 3-0 and with the way Josh Allen is playing, it is mighty tough to back against them.
But with a primetime game in Baltimore and the Ravens running game finding some traction, they might be able to do enough to eek out a win.
Baltimore to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.50
Normally you can see some logic in the scheduling of these primetime games, but even when it was announced this one raised a few eyebrows.
Tennessee is not exactly a marquee team with a severe talent deficit, a major unknown at coach and they have done nothing in the first few weeks to assuage any concerns.
Miami at least was a drawcard with their high flying offence under Tua Tagovailoa’s direction, but with the former Oregon signal caller dealing with another concussion, the replacements don’t exactly inspire confidence.
Something called Skylar Thompson (who barely looked like an NFL quarterback in 2022) got the start last week and also picked up an injury, leaving Tim Boyle as the replacement.
Together they mustered a total of three points in Seattle, reminding everyone about the need for at least a competent backup plan.
If we are lucky one of these teams will reach 17 points, even if it comes from defensive and special teams scores.
Under 36.5 Points @ $1.90
3-0 Seattle faces far and away its toughest test of the season with a Monday Night Football clash in Detroit in front of a raucous crowd.
However it is far from an impossible task with the Lions yet to fire on all cylinders this season, failing to exceed 20 points in regulation.
Which does present a path to victory for this Seahawks offence that can generate explosive plays, something Detroit is not always great at keeping in check.
But with Aidan Hutchinson up front, I’ll back the Lions to make enough plays on both sides of the ball to get home and move both teams to 3-1.
Detroit to Win by 1-13 @ $2.25
2023
We’re almost a quarter of the way through the 2023 NFL regular season and four teams are still chasing their first win.
The good news for two of those teams is that their winless run should come to an end this weekend, with Chicago hosting Denver and Minnesota making a trip to Carolina.
Barring some weird quirk where there is a tie, two of those teams should end the week at 1-3 while the other two will be forced to stare at the 0-4 abyss.
Just who are we backing in those games?
You’ll have to read on to find out.
Despite this rivalry being relatively one-sided for the majority of Aaron Rodgers’ time in Green Bay, the Lions got the last laugh in 2022.
They beat the Packers twice including a Week 18 game at Lambeau that knocked the Packers out of the playoff picture.
Detroit would not have been favoured over Green Bay all that often over the last three decades, especially on the road but they have earned that tag this season.
But I can’t bring myself to back against the Packers at home after their confidence boosting comeback last week.
Where there is some value to be found is backing a few player yardage markets for a SGM since both teams will be moving the ball even if those drives stall out in the red zone.
Detroit’s rookies have begun their careers in impressive fashion, tight end Sam LaPorta has caught at least five balls in every game and topped 45 yards in his last two games while running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a threat out of the backfield and a great safety valve for Jared Goff.
Second year Packers receiver Romer Doubs was the player to complete the comeback last week with the critical touchdown grab and he is going to be a favourite target for Jordan Love here.
SGM: Sam Laporta 45+ Receiving Yards, Jahmyr Gibbs 15+ Receiving Yards, Romeo Doubs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards @ $6.40
16 years into the NFL’s partnership with London, just about every British pun has been exhausted so let’s just get on with the preview of the game.
Few would have expected the Falcons to have a better record than the Jags heading into this game but that has not deterred the bookies from installing the “home” team as favourites.
Plenty of people were high on Jacksonville heading into the season, expecting them to become a better team than 2022 but their performances so far have raised plenty of red flags.
They beat Indianapolis first up but really struggled in losses to the Chiefs and Texans at home.
There is a lot of room to improve if they are going to be as good as some expected.
Atlanta did not head into the season with many if any expectations, but they looked good in wins over Carolina and Green Bay before having a bad day against Detroit.
They might not be that good but they are playing better than the Jags at the moment and at their current price I like the value on Atlanta.
Atlanta to Win @ $2.30
If Joe Burrow was healthy you’d be backing the Bengals in a landslide (14+ is paying $5.60) but the quarterback is still very limited with his calf complaint.
He’s hardly Randall Cunningham back there but he does need to move around and set his feet to make his throws, something he just isn’t up for at the moment.
They are averaging less than 20 points per game and just can’t get anything going, a trend that plays right into Tennessee’s hands.
Defensively the Titans have been solid this season with little to no help from their offence so they will be able to keep this one close and at least give Ryan Tannehill a chance.
I just don’t trust Tannehill to actually take said chance, Cincinnati should win this but it will be a lot closer than expected.
Cincinnati to Cover -2 @ $1.87
There is one simple reason why the Browns are 2-1 this season and it is their fearsome defence.
The stats might say they only have two turnovers, but you don’t need to turn the ball over when you’re giving up less than 10 first downs a game and holding two of your three opponents to under 150 yards of total offence and six combined points.
Baltimore’s new offence is yet to click and I just can’t see them having the same success on the ground they have in the first three weeks which puts the pressure on Lamar Jackson’s arm.
He might be able to do enough throwing the ball because the Browns offence is just dismal and we might be lucky to see one team reach 20 points here, let alone both.
Under 40 Points @ $1.94
Want to know just how little people rate the Bears this season?
Denver just got blown out by Miami 70-20, are 0-3 with players making defeatist comments to the media… and the Broncos are still favourites on the road.
Chicago’s passing offence has gone from poor to abysmal over the first three weeks of the season with their production dropping lower and lower.
Something major needs to change in Chicago but you cannot rule out the possibility they stumble into a win here.
It just depends who is the least rubbish team on the day and I think Denver has more guys you would describe as “at least above average”.
Denver to Cover -3 @ $1.83
The Rams have a tough task heading into this game on short rest after a bruising encounter with the Bengals, but this is still one they should win.
Indianapolis showed plenty of fight last week without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson but he is expected to be back for this one.
Despite him being a better quarterback than Gardner Minshew, his return is likely to set the Colts back a bit given his inevitable growing pains.
LA is good enough to head into Indy and pick up the win, even if they are a long way off the team that won Super Bowl 56.
LA Rams to Win @ $1.94
If there was ever a game worth waking up a stupid o’clock for it’s this one.
Buffalo has put it all together after their Week 1 nightmare and Miami is treating games like a track meet going up and down the field for fun.
Their two games in this stadium last season were back and forth epics with the Bills just sneaking home by three points on both occasions.
Travelling to western New York is not really a favourite pastime for the Dolphins with their last win coming in 2016 (in overtime) and going 1-11 since the 2012 season.
Buffalo will have no problems with this game being a high scoring affair and in front of their rabid fans, I like them to find a way to get over the line.
Buffalo to Win and Over 54.5 Points @ $3.10
While the other game between winless teams screams “dud” this one at least offers up a little bit of intrigue.
Minnesota is too good to be 0-3 but their luck in winning close games last season has well and truly evaporated, going down by a combined 13 points.
As for Carolina, the rebuild is very much in progress but first overall pick Bryce Young is on track to return to the lineup but he is not good enough to swing this game in favour of the Panthers.
Let’s keep this one nice and simple and just take the more talented team.
Minnesota to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Pittsburgh has stumbled into its winning formula while its offence struggles: rely on the defence to rack up the sacks and turnovers and try not to make too many mistakes of their own.
Houston on the other hand was good in their win over Jacksonville last weekend but asking CJ Stroud to replicate his performance against this defence might be a bit much for a guy in his fourth NFL game.
I’m expecting the Steelers to have him on the run all afternoon and force a couple of turnovers as they keep Houston in the single digits and the offence takes advantage of the short fields to put up enough points to win (but not much more).
Pittsburgh to Cover -3.5 and Under 42.5 Points @ $3.90
Both teams saw their perfect starts come to an end last week and they’ll be looking for a bounce back in the Superdome.
You might be surprised to discover that the Saints are still favoured despite Derek Carr’s shoulder injury but at the very least Jameis Winston is a serviceable backup and it’s not like the Bucs have Tom Brady anymore either.
Even with Carr the Saints were not lighting up the scoreboard, only scoring 53 total points and five touchdowns this season.
Tampa has been more productive but only just with 58 points and six touchdowns, so we’re not exactly trending towards a shootout.
Under 40.5 Points @ $1.90
Were the Commanders found out last week or did they just finally play a good team?
Chances are it was the latter and even if it was not that, Philadelphia should easily handle them here.
Despite a number of key players including Jalen Hurts battling the flu last week, Philadelphia comfortably won in Tampa to move to 3-0.
It just depends how much you expect them to win by but the Commanders just don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Washington did record an upset win last November I’m not expecting them to make it two in a row.
Philadelphia to Cover -8 @ $1.90
Despite the best efforts of Chargers coach Brandon Staley, they escaped Minnesota with their first win of the season.
Now they head back home looking to move to 2-2 against a Raiders team playing their third road game in four weeks.
The Raiders have been guilty of plenty of self-inflicted wounds over the first three weeks and now they are likely to go into this game without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
He picked up a concussion and is in the NFL’s protocols at the time of publish, which does not bode well for his chances of playing.
It just depends on who Josh McDaniels wants to go with in his place, the veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell.
This is one of the few times where the rookie is probably the advisable option given Hoyer’s history of underwhelming and forgetting how many timeouts his team had in a critical situation.
O’Connell is very raw but he can get the ball to the likes of Davante Adams and at least give the Raiders a chance.
If it’s Hoyer it could turn into a blowout, if it’s O’Connell it should be close, but I still like the Chargers here.
LA Chargers by 1-13 @ $2.40
Look, there’s not a whole lot we can really say about this game, Arizona is not going to win it and frankly if they keep it close it will be a minor miracle.
San Francisco barely got out of second gear last week against the Giants and still cruised to an easy three score win.
The Cardinals are at least feisty and should put up a fight for some of this game but the 49ers are going to win this comfortably and I’ll take a few extra points on the alternate line.
San Francisco to Cover -18 @ $2.45
After their shock loss to Arizona, Dallas is going to go one of two ways and it will tell us a lot about the mental fortitude of this team.
If they stumble to a second loss and look bad against the Patriots, you can just about cross off any Super Bowl hopes.
Alternatively they come out angry, motivated and focused and belt the ever loving daylights out of a team that is competitive but incredibly limited on the offensive side of the ball.
New England barely beat the hapless Jets last week and while their defence will do what they can to keep them in it for as long as possible, Mac Jones and the offence just doesn’t look right.
Dallas to Win by 14+ @ $3.40
It’s a good thing Taylor Swift is reportedly going to be in attendance for this game because it will give at least some of the audience reason to stick around beyond Kansas City’s third possession.
What was earmarked as a great game a month ago has now become an afterthought with the Jets offence turning into a mess with Zac Wilson back under centre.
Their defence can only do so much and the Chiefs just have too many creative ways to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers.
Watch the first part of the game, see the Chiefs score a few touchdowns, catch a few crowd shots of Swift and get on with your day.
Kansas City to Cover -9.5 @ $1.90
It’s another MetLife Stadium primetime game with the Giants hosting the Seahawks and the bookies cannot split them based on the market at the time of publish.
However a little dig into the numbers suggest the game should be favouring the visitors with Seattle’s offence coming to life in the last two weeks.
New York’s defence has struggled thus far, allowing 98 points, although that first week loss was somewhat compounded by mistakes from the offence and special teams.
San Francisco could have scored a lot more than 30 last week and the Seahawks have plenty of big play potential when they get the ball in their hands.
After being held to just 13 points first up, they have scored 37 points in each of their two wins and I’m expecting them to outscore the Giants to move to 3-1 here.
Seattle to Win and Over 47.5 Points @ $3.50
2023
A stacked Week 4 of NFL action awaits us as the early season contests have been full of drama and plenty of fascinating storylines have emerged.
Few if any people would have expected the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles to be the two remaining unbeaten teams through three weeks but that is how it has unfolded.
Meanwhile Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will face off with both quarterbacks underwhelming in Week 3 defeats.
Those are just a couple of the storylines that highlight Week 4, find out who we are backing in our game previews below.
Miami is in a tough spot as they try and preserve their perfect record in the opening game of Week 4.
Their defence was on the field for over 40 minutes against Buffalo and took almost 100 snaps on a very hot Florida afternoon.
It will put a lot of pressure on their pass rush to get after Joe Burrow who will pick apart a fatigued secondary if he has even a modicum of time to go through his progressions.
With an injury cloud also hovering over Tua Tagovailoa after his “back injury” suffered against Buffalo and all of the factors are conspiring against the Dolphins here.
Look for a SGM backing a big day from Burrow and a Bengals win.
SGM: Cincinnati to Cover -4, Joe Burrow 300+ Passing Yards and 3+ Touchdown Passes @ $5.23
Monday’s smorgasbord of American Football kicks off from London with the Saints and Vikings playing in the first international game of the season.
Both teams will make the trip with major question marks hovering over some of their star players.
Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are just a handful of Saints offensive players on the injury report while Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith and Za’Darius Smith of the Vikings all dealing with ailments of varying degrees.
With so many players already battling, the chances of a Saints no-show, especially on offence appears to be much higher than the -2.5 line would suggest.
The best case for Minnesota here is to control the game by jumping out to an early lead and forcing the Saints to play catch up, something they may struggle with given the limitations of their playmakers.
Back Minnesota HT/FT @ $2.40
Considering the preseason opinions on both teams, it’s more than a bit surprising to see that this is a battle of 2-1 teams but here we are.
We may not be sure about the Giants but the Bears record is definitely a product of their schedule defeating the 49ers in a monsoon and making one less mistake than the Texans.
Losing Sterling Shepard is a bit of a blow to a Giants passing game that is crying out for a gamebreaker, but they still have Saquon Barkley who will break off at least one big run here.
That one big run should be enough to get them by the Bears who seem determined to make life as hard as possible on Justin Fields which is not a recipe for success with a dynamic young quarterback.
Back NY Giants to Cover -3 @ $1.87
In what could be a (very) early preview of the AFC Championship, we will also see two of the leading contenders for the MVP award face off.
Lamar Jackson is playing like a man chasing a quarter of a billion dollar contract extension by carrying the Ravens offence almost entirely on his own.
Josh Allen is (by comparison) a step or two behind, however he did just throw for 400 yards against Miami.
What could be an issue for the Bills heading into this game is the fact there are several key players battling injuries, which could result in another big day for Jackson.
Expect plenty of points but this may be one of the few remaining times you can back the Ravens as an underdog this season, so take the opportunity while it’s there.
Back Baltimore to Win @ $2.35
One area Atlanta has excelled in so far this season is covering the line, one of only a handful of teams going 3-0.
If you just want to back the numbers that might be the play for this game, especially with the Falcons seemingly stubborn enough to stay in each game.
I like their ability to play Cleveland close but the Browns offence is just good enough to keep them ahead of the curve and I’ll back them to win a close one.
Back Cleveland to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.50
An unthinkable statement a month ago, but the Eagles and Jaguars are going to play in arguably the game of the week.
Depending on the result of the Dolphins game, Philadelphia could be trying to stay as the last remaining unbeaten team in the NFL, which explains why they are favoured here.
However backing them with a touchdown handicap is asking a lot if you believe the Jaguars big win in LA last week was not a fluke.
If Jacksonville can stay in this contest it will prove plenty, especially if Trevor Lawrence can keep pace with the Eagles offence.
I’m going to go for a bit of value and back a high scoring, close game where the Eagles come out on top.
SGM: Eagles by 1-13 Points & Over 47 Points @ $5.49
The Chargers might be struggling with injuries all over their roster with plenty of key players either out or limited, but even in their current state they are more than capable of taking care of the Texans.
All you need to know about Houston can be taken from the end of the Texans loss in Chicago last week.
On 3rd and 1 from their own 26 with just over a minute remaining, Davis Mills threw an ill advised interception to a defender, which allowed the Bears to take over possession, grind the remaining time off the clock and kick a game winning field goal as time expired.
Houston will win a game at some point this year, but it won’t be here.
Back LA Chargers to Cover -5 @ $1.90
New York will welcome back second year quarterback Zach Wilson after he recovered from a knee injury suffered in preseason, but his return may not be enough to salvage the Jets season.
Outside of a bizarre comeback against the Browns in Week 2, their offence has failed to fire on the season and Wilson’s risk inclined style of play could play into the hands of a playmaking Steelers secondary.
On the other side of the ball the Steelers offence is not exactly lighting it up either with a miserly average of just 18 points per game, a number unlikely to improve until they bring in rookie Kenny Pickett.
Results wise there is a case for both teams, but neither one is as strong as backing the under, if one team reaches 20 they’ll win.
Back Under 41.5 Points @ $1.90
You have to go back to Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season for the last time Detroit went into a game as a favourite.
On that occasion they were -2.5 on the road against Carolina and proceeded to lay a massive egg, losing 20-0.
However as we say seemingly every week, Dan Campbell has this team ready to fight week in and week out, which is a lot more than what the Seahawks can say.
Neither side is all that good but Detroit at least has something to work with both in terms of execution and talent and should knock off Seattle.
Back Detroit to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
Did the Colts really beat the Chiefs last week?
The scoreboard says that Indianapolis recorded their first win of the season but Kansas City played a massive role in the outcome of that game.
Meanwhile Tennessee finally got off the mark by going back to what worked and leant on Derrick Henry to get by the Raiders.
While both teams were expected to compete for the AFC South, they have begun their seasons in stumbling fashion and are desperately searching for their identities.
Tennessee appears to be closer to discovering theirs and the disparity between these teams is not as big as the market suggests.
Back Tennessee to Win @ $2.45
This may be one of the more straightforward selections of the week, Dallas is more than a field goal better than Washington.
Cooper Rush is good enough as a replacement for the injured Dak Prescott and can get the ball in the hands of the playmakers at his disposal.
Micah Parsons is a true one man wrecking crew and will spend plenty of time in the Commanders backfield, drilling Carson Wentz into the AT&T Stadium turf.
Even with Dallas performing at maybe 50% of their capacity, they’ll still be a lot better than Washington.
Back Dallas to Cover -3 @ $1.90
Now for the line that makes the least sense of the entire weekend, it looks like last week’s results have played a big role in where this opened.
Carolina rode their defence to a win over an ailing Saints team while Arizona struggled in their loss to the reigning Super Bowl champions.
But it does not justify the Panthers being favourites and after peaking at $2.10, Arizona is firming and could be favourites by kickoff.
There’s value to be found on the visitors and it’s where I’ll be going.
Back Arizona to Win @ $1.98
At some stage, the Raiders are going to sort things out and it could come this weekend against a Denver side that is 2-1 despite their best efforts.
There is no way you can feel good about backing the Broncos after their punt filled 11-10 win over the 49ers last week.
It is a bit of a heart over head bet but Denver has not looked good at any stage this year while the Raiders have far more talent at their disposal.
Should Josh McDaniels finally work out the best way to use his receiving corps, Vegas could quickly become an offence that scores over 30 points per game.
I’m banking on it coming at home against an AFC West rival here.
Back Las Vegas to Cover -2.5 @ $1.87
A season that started off behind the eight-ball goes from bad to worse for New England with a trip to Green Bay on the cards.
At the time of writing it looks like it will be the first of a handful of games without Mac Jones which will throw veteran Brian Hoyer into the mix.
Let’s flash back to October 3, 2016 when Hoyer was the quarterback for the Chicago Bears, he started in a 17-14 win in what would be the last time his team won a game he started.
Since then he has gone a miserly 0-11 across three teams and is not inspiring a lot of confidence in New England and across the board.
The Patriots defence hasn’t been bad but a lot was already being asked of them before Jones’ injury and they may need to hold Green Bay under 10 points to give the team a chance.
I don’t see that happening.
Back Green Bay by 14+ @ $2.40
At the time of publish, this game is still scheduled for Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, but with Hurricane Ian making landfall and causing plenty of damage, it’s likely the game will be moved.
US Bank Stadium in Minnesota is the most likely option but as the market does specify, any change in venue will void all bets.
Let’s call this a stay away for the time being.
NO BET
It would just be fitting for the 49ers, a week after one of the ugliest performances in recent memory suddenly turns it around against the reigning champions.
They have a good history against the Rams, since Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017 the 49ers have gone 7-3 in the regular season against their division rival.
LA has not quite found their stride just yet and are definitely vulnerable which makes the 49ers an intriguing proposition.
While the Rams did win the playoff matchup last year, San Francisco’s record in head to head games is just too hard to ignore.
Back San Francisco to Cover -1.5 @ $1.90
2021
It’s not that the rest of the NFL Week 4 schedule is poor, but everything else on the first weekend in October is getting overshadowed by the game at Gillette Stadium on Monday morning (AEDT).
Tom Brady will make his 158th start at Gillette Stadium, but for the first time in his career, he will be on the visitor’s sideline, staring across at Bill Belichick.
It will be one of, if not the biggest regular season game in NFL history and will cap a big day of action.
All four teams from the very competitive NFC West will face off including the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals with the division lead on the line.
After a profitable Week 3 we are back with our previews and recommended plays for every Week 4 game from the National Football League.
The last two number one overall picks will face off in the Thursday Night Football clash, but their seasons have begun in very different fashion.
Trevor Lawrence has been tossed in the deep end, throwing multiple interceptions in all three of his starts to date with nowhere near enough support from his teammates thus far.
On the other side will be Joe Burrow who is working his way back from a major knee injury suffered last November but he has looked far more composed in spite of taking 10 sacks through three games.
Burrow should be able to torch a Jaguars defence that has given up over 400 yards per game and is showing no signs of improvement so far.
Add in the likely extra two or three possessions they will get from Jaguars turnovers and this could be over by the time most Aussie punters are hitting their lunch break.
Back Cincinnati to Cover -7.5 Points @ $1.94
Despite losing Christian McCaffrey in their Week 3 clash in Houston, Carolina was able to ride its defence to a 3-0 record.
The big question now becomes whether or not quarterback Sam Darnold and the stable of fill in running backs can compliment one of the best defences in the league.
When looking through the rosters, the Panthers have more than enough talent to really get after Dak Prescott with the questions surrounding Dallas’s offensive line and slow down an offence that has scored 90 points through the opening three games.
After spending most of 2020 chasing opposing receivers, Dallas’s defence has improved a lot this year and while they still might give up some yards, they have looked a lot stronger in wins over the Chargers and Eagles.
There was a brief consideration of taking a Panthers upset, however the total points number seems a bit too high given the quality of the defences on offer.
Back Under 50.5 Points @ $1.90
Make no mistake, Minnesota absolutely had to win that game against Seattle last week, especially with another tough assignment coming up this week.
Kirk Cousins will be more than happy to hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook and/or Alexander Mattison (depending on the health of the former) after seeing the Browns defensive line torment the Bears to the tune of nine sacks on Justin Fields.
Minnesota’s run defence has been vulnerable and Cleveland should be able to take advantage of that front after tallying over 200 yards on the ground last week.
With their two star receivers well below 100%, the Browns should be able to control this game by keeping the ball in the hands of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
It might keep the points in this game down but the Browns won’t mind one bit, they are the better team and I’ll back them to pick up a much needed win on the road.
Back Cleveland to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.60
Justin Fields had such a rough time in his NFL starting debut, his coach Matt Nagy is considering sending him straight back to the bench and potentially starting a possibly healthy again Andy Dalton or Nick Foles.
After taking a beating from the Browns defence, the Bears offence in general could really use a confidence boosting win, although so could the Lions.
By now you will have seen the record setting kick that consigned Detroit to an 0-3 record as the team’s seemingly cursed existence continues.
Unfortunately for them, it wasted what was without a doubt their best performance to date, and things don’t get any easier for them going forward.
This is a game I am more than happy to stay out of for the time being with nothing really leaping off the page as great value.
NO BET
Buffalo will have another opportunity for an offensive tune up this weekend, Houston will not provide much resistance at all.
Fresh off 10 days rest after mustering nine points at home to Carolina, the Texans will just hope that they can stay in this game long enough to keep viewers interested beyond halftime.
This game has the biggest line of the season and perhaps the forecast rain (at the time of writing) may keep the Bills somewhat in check but this is as much of a mismatch as you will find.
Back Buffalo to Cover -16.5 @ $1.90
Something that may get lost in the fact that the Dolphins went down to the Raiders last week is that the offence actually looked half decent with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.
While he may claim that he is not interested in a revenge game against the side he started 30 games over four seasons for, you know there will be some motivation drawn from that.
He will not be the focus for the Dolphins here however, it will be a ground game that finally started to show some life in Vegas.
Indianapolis will really need to tighten up after giving up 180 rushing yards to the Titans last week, but it’s hard to see where that improvement will come from.
For this game, the way to go is backing Miami to win and running back Myles Gaskin to score his first touchdown of the season as he should be the featured back.
SGM: Miami to Win and Myles Gaskin Anytime Touchdown
If you were so inclined, you could make a case that there is a reason to be concerned about the Chiefs right now.
Back to back defeats, yet to cover the line in a game and just not looking like the same team that has crushed the league for the last three seasons.
Dig a little deeper however and you will see that they just scraped home against a Browns team that might be their main challenger for the AFC, lost to a fired up Baltimore side and then fell to a division rival who always plays them tough.
In short, they have actually had as brutal of a start to the season as you could imagine for a team that is as good as they are.
Philadelphia is not a good team right now, Jalen Hurts just makes way too many mistakes and the defence really struggles to contain talented offences.
Even though the Chiefs at the line has not been a good bet lately, in part because Chiefs lines are so high most weeks, this is a game they should have no trouble winning by at least two scores.
Back Kansas City to Cover -7 @ $1.94
It was a return to normal for the Giants offence last week as they could only muster 14 points against a poor Falcons unit.
New Orleans on the other hand might have the most underrated defence in the NFL through three weeks and they could be in for another field day as the makes it’s return to the Superdome following three weeks on the road.
Any regular viewer of Saints games knows just how loud that stadium can get when its full and it will only hinder the Giants in this game.
This game will be won by the Saints defence and if they can stifle the Giants when they have the ball, it will take the pressure off Jameis Winston and company.
As long as Winston can avoid making the big mistake as he did against Green Bay and New England, it should be relatively smooth sailing for the Saints in this game.
New York’s individual points total has been set at 16.5 which is way too high considering their struggles so far and the fact the Saints have held two opponents under that number as well.
Back NY Giants Under 16.5 Points @ $1.91
Let’s keep this one short and sweet, the Jets are a horrendous excuse for an NFL team and are just not up to competing with other professionals.
They have now gone two weeks without a touchdown, Zach Wilson is still finding opposing defenders with his passes far too often and defensively they just don’t have the answers.
Even without Julio Jones and AJ Brown (probably), the Titans offence should still be able to move the ball for fun thanks to Derrick Henry and their offensive line.
In truth it would be better for the Titans to rest their two receivers for this week at least and let Henry pile up the yards.
SGM: Tennessee to Cover -7 & Derrick Henry Over Total Rushing Yards
There’s a chance this might actually be the most entertaining game of the weekend, or at the very least have a good finish.
It might not have been pretty but Atlanta should take plenty of confidence from getting its first win of the season against the Giants last week.
They are well placed to take advantage of a Washington defence that really has not lived up to the preseason hype.
It might not match the 43 points Buffalo put on them last week but the Falcons should be able to get enough good possessions in to get the job done and when you have two teams like this facing off, take the home underdog.
Back Atlanta to Win @ $1.98
The Rams were able to prove their status as NFC heavyweights last week and now they will have to see off a strong challenge from division rivals Arizona who will be out to make a similar statement.
It has been a very one sided rivalry of late with the Rams winning nine of the last ten and covering on eight occasions.
Not that it will matter to the Cardinals who are looking to continue their red hot start and prove that they belong at the adult’s table now.
We should be in for plenty of points with both teams possessing phenomenal passing games and questionable pass defences.
Matthew Stafford has amassed 942 yards and nine touchdowns per game while Kyler Murray has tallied 1005 yards and seven touchdowns plus another three scores on the ground.
Arizona will score enough to make sure that this game will hit the over and ensure they are not disgraced but the Rams are a juggernaut this season and it is going to be tough to back against them most weeks.
Back LA Rams -4.5 & Over 55.5 @ $3.70
The other NFC West teams will also face off in Northern California, a few hours up the road from SoFi Stadium.
For very different reasons on both sidelines, this will be a match full of early season desperation as the 49ers seek to bounce back from a tough loss and Seattle tries to show they still have it.
San Francisco looks like the more trustworthy side out of the two at the moment even though Seattle’s season is already hanging in the balance.
That is exactly what should give 49ers punters a slight cause for concern, in the highly competitive NFC West, a loss here would have them three games back in the division already and already playing catch up for a wild card spot.
Desperation can only take you so far and Seattle is way too reliant on Russell Wilson to lift up a roster that is lacking talent, so you can back the 49ers outright in this one.
For a bit of extra value, 52 points is a very achievable total so it’s worth throwing that in a Same Game Multi.
SGM: San Francisco to Win and Over 52 Points @ $3.44
Now comes Denver’s first real test of the season with the Ravens coming to town.
They have looked good but have defeated the Giants, Jaguars and Jets on their way to a 3-0 start.
Baltimore is a massive step up on those teams.
While they might have done it the hard way in the last two weeks and have a quarterback that is struggling with a back injury, the Ravens have a roster that can get the job done here.
It might not be easy but there is every chance that the Broncos get found out in this game and for that reason, take the underdog value on the Ravens.
Back Baltimore to Win @ $1.94
Getting Green Bay at anything less than -9.5 for this game is a gift to the punters as they should absolutely demolish a poor Pittsburgh Steelers team.
Their scoring output has decreased in every game so far as Ben Roethlisberger looks like a player who really should have retired a year or two ago.
Aaron Rodgers on the other hand is still producing his usual magic and should be able to get something going against this defence.
Let’s keep this one nice and simple as the Packers cover a line that is showing far too much respect to a Steelers team that needs a refresh.
Back Green Bay to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
Emotions will be running high in Foxborough in this game and the hope is we will be in for a game to match the spectacle.
After all Bill Belichick knows how to get after Tom Brady having coached him for 20 years.
He’s seen Brady shred some defences without breaking a sweat and struggle mightily against others.
Perhaps he will come up with some innovative gameplan or strategic twist that forces Brady off his game, possibly hoping that his return to New England makes him overly emotional.
Unfortunately for Belichick, he just doesn’t have the talent at his disposal to get close to Tampa.
Through three weeks, New England has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league and were absolutely atrocious against New Orleans last week.
Maybe Belichick will opt to sit back and dare Brady to run, but New England’s run defence has provided as much resistance to opponents as a light breeze does to a semi-trailer.
Should Brady decide to throw (and you know he wants to), there are just too many options for him to target all over the field.
Belichick might be able to shut down one of them, but the other four receivers on any play can cause havoc.
With the excerpts of Seth Wickersham’s latest book coming out this week and by some accounts not being all that favourable towards Brady, it will only serve as more motivation for him come into New England and remind his former coach and owner what they were happy to let go.
Back Tampa Bay by 14+ @ $2.80
Very few people would have picked the Raiders to be one of the last five unbeaten teams in the NFL but here they are.
It has not been easy with two of those victories coming in overtime but Jon Gruden has his team rolling.
They will need to be at their best as they head to Los Angeles for this divisional game.
Justin Herbert engineered a phenomenal game winning drive against the Chiefs and will know he can shred this Raiders defence, having amassed 640 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions last year.
He will need to be perfect in this game though with the Chargers offering next to no resistance for opposing running backs.
We are in for a very tight game and remarkably I trust the Raiders at the end of game more than the Chargers at the moment.
Back Las Vegas to Win @ $2.35
2020
Six teams remain undefeated in the NFL as the Bills, Steelers, Titans, Chiefs, Packers and Seahawks those in action hope to improve to 4-0 this week.
History tells us that teams who remain undefeated through the opening four weeks of the season tend to go on to make the playoffs, while on the other end, time is quickly running out for winless teams like the Texans, Vikings and Eagles.
This weeks feature games include a pivotal showdown between the aforementioned Vikings and Texans in Monday’s early morning slot, followed by the Patriots taking on the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a rematch of the 2018 AFC Championship Game.
Due to a positive COVID-19 outbreak, the game between the unbeaten Titans and Steelers has been postponed to later in the season.
With plenty to look forward to, you can find our complete 2020 NFL Week 4 tips below!
The winless Broncos and Jets are both hoping to avoid 0-4 starts for the second straight year when they meet on Friday at the Meadowlands.
Denver’s season has taken a nose dive following Drew Lock’s injury as the Broncos managed less than 250 yards in last week’s blowout loss to the Bucs.
The Jets, on the other hand, found themselves on the receiving end of a 36-7 drubbing at the hands of the Colts as questions begin to mount following a three interception game from quarterback Sam Darnold.
There is very little to like about these two Conference cellar dwellers, hence why the bookies are offering close to even money in the head-to-head market.
The Broncos have won six of their last 10 games against the Jets, but considering these two sides haven’t met since 2018, it’s difficult to know what to expect from this game.
Denver’s offensive line has allowed 13 sacks through the first three games, while the Jets rank dead last in first down’s.
Both teams currently rank bottom five in yards and points, so the chances of a low-scoring contest seems relatively high.
Tip: Under 40 Total Points @ $1.78
The Bucs are currently laying a touchdown at the line as they try and improve to 3-1 this week against the Chargers.
Tampa Bay’s offence combined for over 350 yards last week in a blowout win against the Broncos, but it was the defence that really stole the show.
After struggling mightily against the ground game last year, the Bucs managed to force two turnovers and hold the Broncos to just 42 rushing yards in another convincing performance from Todd Bowles’ defence.
A repeat performance would likely make life pretty tough for the Chargers this week.
Justin Herbert was far from disgraced in just his second career start, but the offence was clearly lacking something extra as the Chargers turned the ball over four times in last week’s loss to the Panthers.
It sounds as though Herbert will start Week 4 over Tyrod Taylor, which doesn’t really change much from a betting perspective.
Tampa’s outstanding run defence likely takes the ground game away from the Chargers, which places enormous pressure on Herbert to perform against a Bucs secondary that has allowed only three passing touchdowns all season.
The Total has gone Under in four of LA’s last five games against an NFC opponent, and that looks the likely outcome again here.
Tip: Chargers Under 18 Points @ $1.85
The Bengals were unlucky not to earn their first win of the season last week against the Eagles, instead having to settle for an overtime draw to improve to 0-2-1.
Cincinnati are clearly a much-improved side with Joe Burrow under center, so it comes as no surprise to find the Bengals as the short-priced favourites this week against the 1-2 Jaguars.
Jacksonville opened its season with a huge win over the Colts but has since struggled to repeat that performance losing to Tennessee and Miami in consecutive weeks.
The Jags were manhandled by the Dolphins defence last week, and while they do have added rest on their side, it’s difficult to find any confidence in Jacksonville’s stale offence going forward.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, are fun to watch as they continue to build for the future.
Head coach Zac Taylor seems more than comfortable running the offence through Burrow after the rookie attempted 44 passes last week for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The Jags found no answer to Devante Parker and Ryan Fitzpatrick against Miami, so it’s difficult to see them shutting down Cincinnati’s strong core of wide receivers.
In what is arguably their best chance to earn their first win of the season, back Cincinnati to build on momentum.
Tip: Back the Bengals 1-13 @ $2.35
The winless Texans and Vikings will meet in Houston on Monday with their respective seasons on the line.
With both teams playing in tough divisions, an 0-4 start would just about rule out any hope of a playoff berth following a forgettable three games to open the season.
Houston’s treacherous schedule has seen them exposed against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, while the Vikings have struggled defensively in losses to the Packers, Colts and Titans.
The Texans are being favoured by a field goal at the line this week as they hope to avoid their third 0-4 start in franchise history.
Just like every other year, Houston’s biggest problem this season has been protecting Deshaun Watson after the star quarterback has spent most of the first month scrambling for his life outside the pocket.
The Vikings have been hit hard through injury, particularly on the defensive front, while the loss of Stefon Diggs has left Kirk Cousins almost empty-handed through the air.
Minnesota currently ranks 28th in offensive passing yards, but that shouldn’t worry head coach Mike Zimmer too much.
Considering the Texans lead the league in rushing yards allowed, the Vikings are almost certain to run the ball down Houston’s throat this week.
Defensively, the Vikings’ pass rush also made some strides against Tennessee where they recorded a sack and registered six hits on Ryan Tannehill.
If Dalvin Cook has his way and the pass rush can make Watson uncomfortable, the Vikings look a good bet to get their first win on the board.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
The last time the Seahawks opened the season 4-0 they went on to win the Super Bowl, so if you’re looking for a reason to back Seattle to win the Lombardi, this is it.
As far as Sunday’s game goes, the Seahawks should have no trouble down in Miami.
Russell Wilson is currently in a league of his own as he continues to make a strong case for MVP, while D.K. Metcalf is quickly turning into one of the most exciting receivers the game has ever produced.
The Dolphins did well to earn their first win of the season last week in Jacksonville, but this is a massive step up against what is arguably the team to beat in the NFC.
Seattle has been hit hard with injuries to running back Chris Carson, defensive back Jamal Adams and linebacker Jordyn Brooks, but they should have no trouble getting past a Dolphins team that has allowed just under 800 passing yards in three games.
Considering Seattle has covered in four of their last five games, the -6.5 line is actually pretty generous.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Bears might be the most underwhelming 3-0 team in NFL history, but you really can’t argue with some of the numbers.
Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest points to opponents after stunning the Falcons last week in their come-from-behind 30-26 victory, and they’ve also managed to score nine touchdowns through the air.
The Colts, meanwhile, continue to fly under the radar at 2-1 after back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Jets.
Indianapolis’ offence isn’t anything special, but just like the Bears, the defence has been carrying the load allowing the fewest points in the league.
All things considered, we should be heading towards a fairly low-scoring game on Monday.
Nick Foles has already been named starter over Mitch Trubisky for the Bears, while the Total has gone Under in five of Chicago’s last six home games.
With offences dominating right around the league, this might be one of the few low-scoring games of the week.
Tip: Under 45 Total Points @ $1.80
The Lions and the Saints are both hoping to improve to an even .500 on Monday when they meet at Ford Field.
Detroit earned their first win of the season last week in an upset over the Cardinals thanks to a three turnover day from the defence and a big day on the ground from Adrian Peterson.
New Orleans, on the other hand, has now lost back-to-back games to Vegas and Green Bay as questions continue to mount surrounding Drew Brees’ arm.
After giving up three touchdowns to Derek Carr the week before, the secondary was also carved up by Aaron Rodgers – although Saints can probably rest a little easier knowing Michael Thomas is set to return from injury.
Offensively these two sides should put up plenty of points, especially considering both teams rank Top 10 in points allowed.
Depending on Brees’ arm, New Orleans can likely dial up a few more deep shots with Thomas back on the field, while the Lions offence remains highly underrated through the air several options for Matthew Stafford to choose from.
Just about every game has gone Over the Total this year, which has typically been the case whenever Detroit and New Orleans get together.
The Total has gone Over in four of the last five games between these two, so don’t be surprised if we get a shootout.
Tip: Over 54 Points @ $1.80
The Browns have rattled off back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Washington, but they are about to face a much tougher opponent in the battle-tested Dallas Cowboys.
The new-look Cowboys have hardly looked convincing this season in two losses to the Rams and Seahawks as well as a come-from-behind victory over the Falcons a fortnight ago.
That being said, the Cowboys offence has been sneaky good this year leading the league in passing yards, while the ground game hasn’t been half bad either scoring six touchdowns across the first three games.
Cleveland’s defence remains a huge question mark after being torn apart by the Ravens in Week 1.
The Cowboys aren’t quite on the same level as Baltimore, but it goes without saying that Dallas are an obvious step up in class compared to Cincinnati and Washington.
Our bookies seem to have this one just about right with the Cowboys at -4.5.
Dallas 1-2 record isn’t pretty, but with the jury still out on the Browns defence, this shapes up as a perfect statement game for the Cowboys as they look to extend their lead in the NFC East.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Washington’s Week 1 win over the Eagles feels like a distant memory now after suffering back-to-back blowout losses to the Cardinals and Browns.
The Ravens were also on the receiving end of a blowout last week at the hands of the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
After so much talk about Baltimore’s defence, Jim Harbaugh’s side found no answer to Patrick Mahomes as the league’s best quarterback laughed off the Ravens’ blitz on the way to a comfortable 34-20 win.
A game against one of the league’s worst sides couldn’t have come at a better time as the Ravens hope to get back on track.
Aside from the defence, Lamar Jackson also endured a game to forget last week against the Chiefs, finishing with less than 100 yards both through the air and on the ground.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens have been a great play following a previous loss going 9-5 since 2017.
With Washington currently ranking bottom ten in both passing and rushing yards this season, it’s not worth overcomplicating this one.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Win & Washington Under 17 Points
The Panthers will be hoping to upset another of the league’s young quarterbacks this week after earning their first win of the season over Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
A four turnover day from the defence helped earn Matt Rhule his first win as head coach, a performance the Panthers will need to replicate this week against Kyler Murray and Arizona’s air-raid offence.
The Cardinals came back to earth a little last week in an upset loss to Detroit, a reminder to everyone that Arizona’s defence is still extremely vulnerable.
Murray didn’t help matters with a three interception day, so it should be interesting to see how the Cardinals respond against another inferior opponent.
On one hand, Carolina’s pass rush could create hell for Murray in the pocket, while on the other, last week’s loss may have been the perfect wake up call with hype train beginning to take off.
The Panthers currently rank 24th in points scored, so it’s difficult to see them matching the Cardinals on the scoreboard, especially if Murray stays clean in the pocket.
It’s one thing to beat up on a Chargers team with a rookie under center, but this poses a much different test against what is arguably one of the best offences in the NFC.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Rams have opened as double digit favourites this week as they look to bounce-back from last week’s agonising loss to the Bills.
A beautiful drive from Josh Allen late in the fourth quarter cost the Rams a chance at 3-0, but there was still plenty to like about the way Los Angeles put up points against what is arguably one of the best defences in the league.
Jared Goff has been one of the most improved quarterback’s this year after throwing for 300-yards and a couple of touchdowns last week, and he should have no trouble picking apart a Giants secondary that just gave up 36 points to a half-strength 49ers team.
Defensively the Rams rank fifth in turnovers, which spells trouble for a Giants team that ranks fourth in the same category on offence.
The Under has been a great play on the Giants this year, while the Rams are also 4-1 in their last five home games.
With that in mind, it’s worth loading up on a Same Game Multi here.
Tip: Back the Giants Under 17.5 Total Points & the Rams to Cover the Line (-13 Points)
The Bills have a chance to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2008 this week when they travel to Vegas to face the 1-2 Raiders.
Buffalo pulled off a statement in last week at home over the Rams that has all but confirmed the legitimacy of Josh Allen’s improvement.
Through three weeks Allen currently ranks top five in completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns, a worrying sign for a Raiders defence that just gave up 36 points to Cam Newton and the Patriots a week ago.
Vegas’ defence has again been the biggest letdown this year as the Raiders currently rank sixth in yards allowed and eighth in points.
None of that spells a win on Monday against a Bills team that ranks third in points scored, so with all things considered, you have to fancy Buffalo to keep on rolling.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.91
*UPDATE: This match has been postponed to Tuesday or Wednesday (AEDT) after players tested positive for COVID*
Another AFC blockbuster is on tap this week as the Chiefs hope to improve to 4-0 for the fourth season in a row.
Kansas City firmly established themselves as the team to beat (again) last week with an utterly dominant win over the Ravens in Baltimore, a performance that reminded everyone why Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league.
The Patriots also improved to 2-1 with a big home win over the Raiders.
New England’s defence was the star of the show forcing three turnovers and holding Vegas to only three third down conversions, but another quiet performance from Cam Newton this week is sure to cost the Pats in a big way.
For all the talk about the Chiefs’ offence, they’ve also been doing some pretty special things on the other side of the ball.
Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest points in the league heading into Week 4, while they’ve also been one of the toughest teams to pass the ball against.
As expected, the Patriots’ lack of receivers has cost them dearly through the air, evident in the fact they rank 22nd in passing yards.
None of this bodes well against the Chiefs, so unless Newton somehow pulls off a few miracles with his legs, it’s difficult to see New England coming close.
Tip: Patriots Under 23 Points @ $1.80
The Eagles have been one of the most disappointing teams to start the season as they now face a make-or-break game against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football.
Still without a win on the board, this shapes up as a must-win game for Philly and Carson Wentz following last week’s incredible draw with the Bengals at home.
Wentz is currently tied for the league lead in interceptions, so it’s safe to assume all eyes will be on No. 11 with the leash getting shorter and shorter.
San Francisco, meanwhile, has somehow managed to start the season 2-1 despite a long list of names remaining on the sideline.
Nick Mullens was enormous last week in the 36-6 win over the Giants, while the defence also managed to force three turnovers even without Nick Bosa.
There’s still no update on Jimmy Garoppolo’s ankle, so it appears Mullens will start again this week.
The 49ers will also be boosted by the potential return of star tight end George Kittle, which largely explains the odds on offer in the market.
Philly has been extremely tough to watch this year and it’s really hard to see Wentz turning things around against the second-best pass defence in the NFL.
With home-field advantage also working in their favour, the Niners should get the job done here.
Tip: 49ers to Win & Over 46.5 Total Points @ $2.45
The Packers proved to everyone last week that they might be the team to beat in the NFC after dismantling the Saints in the Superdome.
Green Bay’s offence currently leads the league in points, while the Packers remain the only team in the NFL not to turn the ball over through the first three weeks of the season.
Aaron Rodgers has clearly reverted back to his old ways, largely due to Matt LaFleur’s condensed yet creative playbook that continues to catch defences napping on deep routes and play action.
The Falcons, on the other hand, well… the less said the better.
After blowing a 15-point lead against the Cowboys a week earlier, the Falcons went one better by replicating that same performance last week against the Bears.
Two soul crushing losses are sure to cost a team its confidence, or, more importantly, Dan Quinn his job.
Another loss on Tuesday could see the Falcons looking for a new coach, and it appears things are trending that way with a trip to Lambeau Field on the cards.
Defensively the Packers have been ordinary this year, particularly against the run, so there is a chance we see Atlanta put up some points in this game.
That said, Green Bay’s defence seems more than capable of creating plays when it matters most, so it’s still difficult to envision any sort of Falcons miracle upset happening.
These two sides are quite familiar with one another after several playoff meetings over the years, but it is worth noting Atlanta hasn’t won in Green Bay since 2008.
The Falcons have the offensive weapons to give the Packers defence its toughest test yet, but a win still seems a long shot.
Tip: Back the Falcons to Cover the Line (+7 Points) @ $1.90
**Update: due to Tennessee’s positive COVID-19 tests, this game has been postponed and will be caught up later in the season.
2019
Only six teams in NFL history have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3, placing enormous pressure on the Bengals, Broncos, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers and Redskins in Week 4.
Meanwhile, 25 teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl after starting 3-0, something the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, Rams and 49ers all have in mind.
The battle for a playoff spot continues to heat up in each division as we try and separate the contenders from the pretenders, so if you fancy backing a winner, be sure to read all our top NFL Week 4 tips below.
https://youtu.be/kTnyLx_OXdQ
We’re only four weeks in, but this could turn out to be the most exciting Thursday Night Football game all season.
The 3-0 Packers prepare for their third straight home game as they take on an Eagles side reeling from a loss to the Lions. Green Bay have opened as 4.5-point favourites, but with both sides playing well defensively, we could be in for a tight one.
Philadelphia’s loss last week at home boiled down to turnovers and sacks. The Eagles turned the ball over twice, while Carson Wentz spent an uncomfortable four quarters in the pocket as the Lions racked up three sacks.
Home-field advantage has certainly played a part in the Packers’ undefeated start to 2019. Defensively, Green Bay’s secondary has been enormous ranking Top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed and first in takeaways, but there’s still plenty to be desired from the offence.
Aaron Rodgers and his receivers look a little out of sync, which has left new head coach Matt LaFleur no option but to rely on the running game. So far that has worked just fine with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams splitting the carries, but the Packers will need to find some rhythm through the air against an Eagles team that’s allowed only one rushing touchdown all year.
These two sides haven’t met since 2016, a game the Packers won 27-13. The Total has gone Under in four of their last five meetings at Lambeau Field, while the Total has also gone Under in four of Philly’s last six games.
With both defences operating on all cylinders, as well as both offensive units looking a little unstable, back the Double.
Tip: Back the Packers to Win & Under 45 Points @ $3.13
The undefeated Bills have caught everybody by surprise opening the season with a perfect 3-0 record.
Haters will say Buffalo has only earned wins over the hapless Jets, Giants and Bengals, but there’s still something to be said about the Bills’ defence that currently ranks fifth in fewest yards allowed.
The Patriots have also opened undefeated thanks to a cruisy first month of their own. New England owns wins over the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, but as the odds suggest, the bookmakers aren’t all-in on a Patriots blowout like they have been in recent weeks.
Bill Belichick and company are 7-point favourites as they hit the road this week. The Patriots have won five straight games over Buffalo dating back to 2016, while you have to rewind all the way back to 2011 to find the Bills’ last home win over New England.
Still yet to allow a touchdown, the Patriots’ defence has been outstanding to start the season, however, they may meet their match against a Bills team that ranks fifth in rushing yards.
The Bills are often thought of as an easy beat, but this already feels similar to 2017 when Buffalo snuck into the Wild Card spot. The Bills have also been money at the line recently boasting a strong 4-1 record, so it’s worth backing the Bills’ recent form to at least keep this close.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (+7 Points) @ $1.91
One of these sides is more desperate than the other for a win, and it’s not the Miami Dolphins.
The Chargers lost a game they should have won last week against the Texans as quarterback Philip Rivers again failed to get the job done with under a minute to go.
Los Angeles had the ball on the Texans’ 29-yard line with just over 30 seconds remaining, only for Rivers to turn it over on downs to secure the 27-20 loss.
The Dolphins seem relatively comfortable tanking their season away, although Miami certainly put a scare into the Cowboys last week in Dallas.
Brian Flores’ side trailed 10-6 at half time, but the damage was done in the second half as Dak Prescott piled on 21 unanswered points.
These two sides haven’t met since 2017, and surprisingly enough, it’s the Dolphins who have held the upper hand in recent years winning seven of their last 10-games. Of course, Miami’s defence currently looks incapable of stopping even the most mediocre passing attacks, which makes it hard to foresee any kind of upset this week.
Los Angeles has won three of its last five Week 4 games, and while that mightn’t mean much, it does say a lot about a team that has notoriously started each season slowly.
The Dolphins are currently losing by an average margin of 39 points-per-game, and after two blown losses, this should be the perfect opportunity for Los Angeles to turn things around.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.96
Turns out Andrew Luck retiring wasn’t the worst thing in the world.
Indianapolis, now 2-1, have been the most surprising team to start the new season as they still look up to challenging the Texans in the AFC South.
Last week the Colts fought to the death against the Falcons to earn a 27-24 victory in a game headlined by Jacoby Brissett’s 300-yard performance and yet another dominant outing from running back Marlon Mack.
Oakland, on the other hand, finds themselves right where we thought they’d be at 1-2 on the year. The Raiders proved no match for the Vikings in Minnesota last week, as the defence continues to surrender large chunks of yards through the air.
Mack currently ranks third in rushing yards this season, so you can expect to see plenty of him this week. The Colts’ talented back has helped Indianapolis convert on 19 of their 35 third down opportunities this year – the fourth highest success rate in the league.
Speaking of third down, the Raiders continue to find new ways to allow opposing teams to move the chains. Oakland has allowed the fourth-most third down conversions this year, which normally spells bad news against a very dangerous offence like the Colts.
Tip: Back the Colts to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $2.00
A win this week is crucial for both teams as the Falcons and Titans both look to return to .500.
Tennessee’s playoff hopes took a slight turn in Week 3 as they lost a blowout on Thursday Night Football to the division rival Jags. Despite controlling possession and the ground game, nine sacks on quarterback Marcus Mariota cost the Titans a chance to improve to 2-1.
As for Atlanta, things are equally concerning. The Falcons took care of the Eagles at home in Week 2 before losing a 27-24 thriller against the Colts in Indianapolis last week. The season is far from over, but the running game needs to find its mojo if Atlanta holds any hopes of making the playoffs.
This won’t be the most exciting game of the week, but it’s tough to back against the Falcons at home. Plenty has been made of Matt Ryan this season, but Atlanta still ranks Top 10 in passing yards and third in touchdowns.
Tennessee’s defence was made to look basic last week against Gardner Minshew, and it’s tough to trust the Titans’ offensive line on the road. The Falcons are 5-2 in their last seven home games against Tennessee, so back some value in the Margin Market.
Tip: Back the Falcons 1-13
There might only be bragging rights on the line between these two NFC East rivals, but there are still a handful of key storylines worth watching.
The Daniel Jones era got off to a bang last week as the Giants’ first round pick led Big Blue on a game-winning 75-yard drive. Jones scrambling for the touchdown was the highlight of the game, but the injury to running back Saquon Barkley put a bit of a dampener on the result.
Washington, meanwhile, now have a potential top three draft pick on the horizon. The Redskins were torn apart by Chicago’s pass rush on Monday Night Football, leaving Washington one of seven teams yet to record a win this season.
Barkley is set to miss 4-8 weeks with a high-ankle sprain, placing more pressure on Jones’ shoulders. Trusty tight end Evan Engram and receiver Sterling Shepard will now have more responsibility to score points, but considering the Skins’ defence is equal to, if not worse, than Tampa Bay’s last week, this should be another win for the Giants.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.91
This shapes up as a fascinating battle between two undefeated sides in Detroit on Monday morning.
The Lions held on for dear life in Philadelphia last week and emerged with a narrow 27-24 victory over the Eagles, while the Chiefs survived a scare at home to outscore the Ravens 33-28.
Kansas City look similar to last season as the offence continues to dominate. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t regressed at all in his second year as the starter, as he currently leads the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards per-game.
That said, the Chiefs’ defence is still a question mark. Kansas City allowed the Ravens to rack up 452 total yards last week, and while the Lions mightn’t look much on paper, there’s still plenty of big-time offensive weapons for Chiefs defence to worry about.
Detroit continues to fly under the radar for a number of reasons, but with wins over the Chargers and Eagles now to their name, it’s time to take the Lions seriously.
Matt Patricia’s team not only ranks 10th in passing yards, but the Lions have also allowed only four touchdowns through the air so far.
Detroit and Kansas City don’t get together very often, which makes this game one of the biggest upset watches of the week.
The Chiefs haven’t traveled to Detroit since 2011, and as we’ve seen over the last two years with the Patriots in 2018 and the Chargers a fortnight ago, the Lions are more than capable of beating the AFC’s elite teams at home.
Tip: Back the Lions to Win @ $3.25
Nothing beats a classic AFC North rivalry game between two sides looking to bounce-back from a previous loss.
Baltimore still finds themselves atop the division despite their thrilling 33-28 loss to the Chiefs last week. The Ravens matched Kansas City on offence but struggled to find an answer to Patrick Mahomes defensively – a common problem across the league.
Cleveland also found themselves with their back to the wall at home to last year’s Super Bowl runner-up’s. The Browns had their chances against the Rams, but another poor game from Baker Mayfield cost Cleveland in the end.
The Ravens are 7-point favourites this week having won eight of their last 10 games over the Browns. Offensively, Lamar Jackson is on a completely different level, but it’s the Ravens defence that should decide this game.
Cleveland has given up 11 sacks through three games and currently ranks 27th in third down conversion percentage. The offensive line is in complete disarray, and with Baltimore holding a 10-1 record in their last 11 home games against the Browns, this should be nothing more than a blowout.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $1.91
The Texans head back to Houston on Monday fresh from a successful road trip out West.
Bill O’Brien’s men held on for a huge victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles, highlighted by Deshaun Watson’s first career 300-yard, three touchdown game.
The win was vitally important for the Texans with the 2-1 Colts looking much better than expected, and not surprisingly, Houston has opened as 4.5-point favourites this week against the Panthers.
Carolina got their season partially on track last week with a much-needed win over the Cardinals. It was a fabulous homecoming for Arizona native Kyle Allen, as the rookie threw for 261-yards and four touchdowns.
At time of publish, it’s unclear whether the Panthers will risk Cam Newton’s health or instead rely on Allen for another week. Either way, it’s still difficult to back a Carolina upset.
These two sides have split their previous four meetings two wins apiece since they first met back in 2003, but it’s the Texans who should gain the upper hand on Monday.
Houston’s offence is firing on all cylinders, even on the ground – an area of concern for the Texans following Lamar Miller’s season-ending injury.
The Texans rank 10th in rushing yards, while the Panthers rank eighth in rushing yards allowed. That spells a Houston win at home in what should be a low-scoring game.
Tip: Back the Texans to Win & Under 46 Points @ $3.08
The Rams have opened the season 3-0 for the second straight year after pulling off a big win over the Browns in Cleveland last week.
Los Angeles haven’t wowed us like they did last year though, making this week’s game against the Bucs crucial as the Rams prepare to enter a tough patch on the schedule.
Tampa Bay suffered a cruel loss last week at home as kicker Matt Gay missed a game-winning field goal against the Bucs. Head coach Bruce Arians wore the blame for taking a delay of game penalty, but really, there are plenty of bigger problems to focus on in Tampa Bay right now.
Jameis Winston threw for over 300-yards and a touchdown, but none of that matters when your quarterback is sacked four times. The Bucs have now allowed 10 sacks through three games, which in turn has led to Tampa Bay’s struggles on third down.
Los Angeles will travel to Seattle next week before they take on the 49ers at home. Those are two tough division games the Rams need to win, but head coach Sean McVay must ensure his team doesn’t underestimate the Bucs this week.
Although last week’s win over the Browns was impressive, there was still lots to dislike about the Rams. Los Angeles turned the ball over three times, two of which came on interceptions from Jared Goff.
Say what you will about the Bucs, but their defence has played okay in the opening three weeks. Tampa Bay ranks 12th in takeaways and has allowed only three passing touchdowns, so back the Bucs to keep this one close.
Tip: Back the Buccaneers to Cover the Line (+10 Points) @ $1.91
We could be in for a high-scoring NFC West battle on Monday between two teams looking to bounce-back from a pair of losses.
Arizona find themselves staring at 0-2-1 after the defence allowed Kyle Allen to throw for four touchdowns during last week’s 38-20 blowout loss to Carolina.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, managed a more respectable loss against the Saints, but despite what the scoreboard read, Seattle were still torn apart as Ken Norton’s defence found no answer to Alvin Kamara.
The Cardinals and Seahawks have had no trouble putting points on the board, particularly when they get together. The Total has gone Over in two of their last three meetings, while the Seahawks have also seen six of their last seven games also go Over.
Arizona’s offensive line continues to break down in front of Kyler Murray as the Cardinals have allowed the second-most sacks this season. Seattle’s pass rush should be in for a feast, while on offence, the Seahawks should be able to take advantage of an Arizona defence allowing the third-most rushing yards.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Win & Over 48 Total Points @ $2.69
We should find out plenty about Gardner Minshew this week as Jacksonville travels to Denver to take on the winless Broncos.
The Jaguars have enjoyed an extra few days rest in the leadup to Week 4 after earning their first win of the season over the Titans last week. Minshew had himself a game throwing for 200-yards and a pair of scores, but it was the defence who stole the show sacking Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota nine times.
If you’ve caught a glimpse of the Broncos already, you’ll know Denver is in a world of hurt. For a team that was supposed to have one of the best defences in the league, the Broncos are still yet to record a single sack all season.
On offence, the Broncos do pack a punch though – as the Packers found out last week. Phillip Lindsay turned up in a big way at Lambeau Field rushing for 81-yards and two touchdowns, while backup Royce Freeman pitched in with 63-yards of his own.
These two sides haven’t met since 2016, but it’s worth noting the pair have split their last 10 meetings five wins apiece.
With home-field advantage, the Broncos have opened as the 3-point favourites, but the Total is probably your safest bet between two fairly unpredictable sides.
Denver’s last eight home games have all gone Under, so back the defences to do the talking in this one.
Tip: Under 39 Total Points @ $1.92
The bookies are having a tough separating these two NFC North rivals with almost even money on offer.
The Bears and Vikings both find themselves 2-1 to start the season, but it’s Chicago who holds the edge in the market with home-field advantage.
Matt Nagy’s side piled on 31-points against the Redskins in Washington last week as the defence murdered Case Keenum with three interceptions and four sacks. That said, the Bears did take their foot off the gas a little in the third quarter as the Skins put up a pair of touchdowns in the second half.
Minnesota also won big last week at home over the Raiders. Again, it was the Dalvin Cook show as the talented running back rushed for 110-yards and a touchdown, while the defence allowed only three third down conversions.
Speaking of defence, that’s exactly what we should see between these two NFC heavyweights. The Bears and Vikings both rank Top 10 in sacks and interceptions, while the Bears are one of only three teams yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
While the defence will win this game for either side, the offence still needs to put up points. Already this season we’ve seen signs of regression from Mitch Trubisky, but on the opposite side, Kirk Cousins has been equally underwhelming.
Surprisingly, the Bears and the Vikings rank second and third in completions this year – adding further spice to this match up.
Even so, six of Chicago’s last seven home games have gone Under the Total, so expect plenty of turnovers and very few points.
Tip: Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.91
If this game turns out anything like last year’s Week 13 game, we should be in for a real treat.
The Cowboys won 13-10 thriller in Texas over the Saints last season, but this time around, Jerry Jones and company will have to travel to the Superdome to face a very dangerous looking New Orleans team.
Sean Payton dialed up the perfect gameplan for Teddy Bridgewater last week. The Saints kept things simple through the air by relying on screens and short throws to the flat, while Alvin Kamara did the rest racking up 161 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
The Cowboys enjoyed a much easier week against the Dolphins last Sunday, but Dallas certainly kept things interesting in the first half. Leading only 10-6 at half time, fortunately Ezekiel Elliott turned up in the second half as both he and back up Tony Pollard combined for over 200-yards on the ground.
If last year’s game was any indication though, we could be in for a low-scoring affair in this one. Dallas’ defence has allowed only 270-yards and two touchdowns on the ground, which could make life tough for Kamara to find running lanes.
The Cowboys have won two of their last three games over New Orleans, and the odds look just about right this week.
If Dallas can accomplish what the Seahawks failed to do last week and pressure Bridgewater up the middle, they should be well on their way to a big road win and a 4-0 record.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win @ $1.70
A game between two winless teams mightn’t seem very exciting, but there’s always plenty of fireworks whenever these two AFC North rivals get together.
Nothing more than a touchdown separated the Bengals and the Steelers in their two meetings last year, and after a very sluggish start to the season, it’s surprising to see the Steelers favoured so heavily in the market.
That said, Mason Rudolph, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie replacement, looked just fine during last week’s loss to the 49ers on the road. The 24-year-old threw for 174-yards and a pair of touchdowns – decent numbers after dropping back to pass 27 times in his debut.
The Bengals also fell in similar fashion against the Bills. Cincinnati trailed by two touchdowns at half time, right before piling on 10-points in the fourth quarter to go on and lose 21-17.
Pittsburgh won both games over Cincinnati last year, but there’s still a lot to like about the Bengals. The running game finally showed some signs of life last week as Joe Mixon rushed for 61-yards, while the defence forced a pair of turnovers.
Better yet, the Bengals also hold a 6-1 record against the line in their last seven games. Cincinnati is also 6-0 in their last six games on the road, so it’s worth taking on the Steelers with a generous spread set.
Tip: Back the Bengals to Cover the Line (+4 Points) @ $1.91
2018
Anything and everything can happen in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns have a win, the 49ers are down a quarterback, and the upsets continue to spoil your multi’s each and every week.
With five key divisional games to look forward to, Week 4 promises much of the same, but fortunately we’re here to try and tip you a winner ahead of another unpredictable week.
Will the Patriots lose back-to-back games for the first time since 2015? And who remains undefeated, the Dolphins, Rams, Chiefs, or… all three?
Be sure to check out our entire 2018 NFL Week 4 Preview below!
Although not half as bad as last year, so far this season Thursday night games have been somewhat unappealing.
Funnily enough, you could also say the same for the Vikings. By far the biggest shocker of Week 3 was Minnesota’s home loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills, surrendering three total touchdowns to Josh Allen in the 27-6 loss.
Despite their shortcomings, the Vikings are still a potential Super Bowl contender though, but they’ll really meet their match this week against the Rams.
Los Angeles survived a few scares against the Chargers last week to win by 12-points. The Chargers understrength defence always looked vulnerable, perhaps an understatement considering Jared Goff went to work with Robert Woods racking up a pair of scores.
As far as excitement goes, this could easily be the best Thursday night game of the season, if Minnesota’s offense shows up of course.
The Vikings ran for only one first down last week while Kirk Cousins struggled to find Stephon Diggs. The two combined for only four receptions, capping off a frustrating week for Mike Zimmer’s side.
Against a Rams pass-defence that’s allowed the fewest points-per-game so far this year, it’s hard to see the Vikings having their way this week.
Los Angeles are 11-4 head-to-head in their last 15 games, and it’s likely we see that record continue to improve.
Tip: Back the Rams To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.87
Sam Darnold’s honeymoon was sweet and short, wasn’t it?
After so much promise following Week 1’s blowout defeat over the Lions, the rookie has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown in the last two weeks since.
Life in Jacksonville hasn’t been quite as sour, although the Jags’ quiet loss to the Titans last week looked a little concerning.
We always knew the real Blake Bortles was alive and well somewhere, and he reappeared last week throwing for just 155-yards.
The Jaguars failed to find the end zone against the Titans, falling 9-6. Most importantly though, the defence was still rock solid, allowing just 83-yards in the air and 150 on the ground.
New York are capable of scoring points, and we have to expect these growing pains from Darnold, but it’s tough to see the Jets doing much if their ground game proves a complete non-factor against the Jags strong pass rush.
In the last three weeks, Todd Bowles has relied heavily on Isaiah Crowell to keep the chains moving in short-yardage situations. This week, the rushing lanes won’t be there, which forces Darnold to make a play in the air.
In what is sure to be a steep learning curve for the rookie on the road, this is a game the Jaguars defence should eat up. Go ahead and back them by plenty.
Tip: Back the Jaguars 13-18 @ $4.75
So how much do undefeated records really matter?
The Dolphins might have earned some respect, but when you consider the teams they’ve beaten – the Titans, Jets and Raiders – it’s still tough to buy into what Miami is selling.
This week poses a real test for the Phins, one that may help us decide if they are indeed a contender or pretender.
Speaking of which, let’s throw the Patriots into the same conversation. For the first time in a long time, New England looked well, basic, on offense last week. A road loss to the Lions highlighted the struggles ahead for this offensive line, while the running game still hasn’t shown any signs of life.
In terms of intrigue, this AFC East rivalry is the game to watch this week. Miami’s offense has relied on trick plays and deep throws to the likes of Kenny Stills all game long, which should really test New England’s depleted secondary.
For the Patriots, it’s all about finding some spark. Newly acquired wide receiver Josh Gordon should start this week, and he’ll need to be switch on if the Patriots hold any hope of scoring against Miami’s top rank secondary.
Tom Brady and company enter this game as the favourites, and for good reason. Miami are 0-5 head-to-head against the Patriots in their last five games, and on the road in Foxboro, a ground they haven’t won at so long as Brady was under centre, New England are the pick to bounce back.
Tip: Back the Patriots 7-12 @ $4.33
The Eagles got their man back last week, and everything looks right again on offense… kinda.
After missing half a year of football, we should expect a little bit of ring rust from Carson Wentz. He’ll likely stay cautious outside of the pocket, and with star receiver Alshon Jeffery still on the sidelines, he’s still missing his go-to guy.
What was concerning though was Wentz’s two turnovers last week in the win over the Colts.
Really, the Eagles were lucky to win that game, and if it wasn’t for Wendell Smallwood’s breakout with Jay Ajayi also injured on the sidelines, Philly are probably looking at 1-2 right now.
The good news is the Eagles are 6-2 in their last eight games on the road, and they should receive Jeffery back this week from a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile, things aren’t quite so straightforward for Tennessee. Hey the Titans are 2-1, and they lead the AFC South, but the offense has been nothing but vanilla all season long.
Similar to last season though, it’s the defence that gets the job done, which makes this weekend’s game all the more compelling. The Titans silenced Jacksonville’s pass attack last week, and held Houston to just one red zone opportunity, which they failed to convert, in Week 2.
Better yet, Tennessee have beaten up on the Eagles recently. They are 4-1 straight up when facing Philly, making them a sexy upset pick this week.
Tip: Back the Titans To Win @ $2.80
You could really make a case for the Colts as a sleeper right now, even if their 1-2 record doesn’t look all that trendy.
Last week’s loss to the Eagles literally came down to a shoestring, more specifically T.Y. Hilton’s, who lost his cleat on an end zone fade from Andrew Luck that basically would have won the game.
The positives are there for Indy though, and it all starts with the pass-rush. The Colts made life tough for Carson Wentz during his return last week, sacking him five times, leading to a costly interception and a fumble.
That will come in handy this time out against the Texans, a team that by all accounts has been the most disappointing to start the season.
You hate to call a Week 3 game “must-win”, but in the South, that’s what last week’s match up against the Giants was – a chance to get things back on track.
Now, it’s another 0-3 start, and a whole lot of concern for a defence that has recorded just one interception.
To continue Houston’s misery, there’s plenty of concern on offense. DeShaun Watson is slowly getting the feel for things as he returns from a season-ending knee injury last year, but so far the star quarterback has been the highlight of the running game, which doesn’t spell great things for the Texans this week.
Indy have allowed only two rushing touchdowns and two runs of 20+ yards all year. They are also 14-2 in the head-to-head market when playing at home against the Texans. You make the call.
Tip: Back the Colts To Win @ $1.87
In case you needed another harsh reminder of what Aaron Rodgers means to the Packers, take a look at last week’s loss to the Washington Redskins.
The future Hall of Famer had a fairly off game by his standards, completing only 61% of his passes in Green Bay’s 31-17 loss on the road. When No.12 has a bad day, the rest of the roster normally does too.
On the flip side, the Bills win over the Vikings was perhaps the highlight of their season, and it’s only Week 3. Josh Allen made some moves on the ground and in the air, storming ahead in the first half to put the game in doubt early.
Now traveling to Lambeau Field, Buffalo will have to replicate their blueprint to success against another NFC North powerhouse for the second week in a row.
So can they do it?
If one thing is for sure, it’s a tough to get a read on Green Bay’s defence. Blown coverage was a common theme last week against the Redskins, as corners Jaire Alexander and Davon House looked lost for much of the game.
Fortunately for Green Bay, the Bills don’t possess the same calibre receiver, which should help the Packers’ bounce-back chances this week. Expect Green Bay to equally challenge the Bills secondary with a fast-tempo offense early.
Tip: Back the Packers 7-12 @ $4.20
That was a confidence building win for the Lions last week, and boy did they need it.
Matt Patricia got one up over his old pals in New England, and we were once again treated to just how special Matt Stafford can be when he’s allowed time in the pocket.
Since we’re on the topic, pocket protection is something Cowboys starter Dak Prescott can only dream of right now. It was another stinker from Dallas last week as Prescott threw for 168-yards and a pair of picks, while Seattle’s defence had a field day racking up five sacks.
It’s still early, but things are getting pretty testy in Jerry World right now. Again, it’s only Week 3, but how long until head coach Jason Garrett finds himself on the hot seat?
In Garrett’s defence, he doesn’t have much to work with. Forgive us if you’ve heard this one before, but the Cowboys’ receivers just aren’t cutting the mustard.
While Ezekiel Elliott continues to gash opposing defences, he’s still not having an impact on the scoreboard. In fact, no one on the Cowboys is – they had three red zone trips last week and managed just one touchdown.
Detroit’s defence is nothing special, and after so much offseason hype, neither is Dallas’.
The Lions are high on confidence though, but there’s still so much that could go wrong this week, especially on the road in Dallas.
Best to stick with the points market in this one as these two still present plenty of question marks.
Tip: Back Under 43.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Big battle between two division leaders that could teach us a little more about two complex offensive systems.
Let’s start with the Bucs. Tuesday’s loss to the Steelers looks better on paper than it actually was. Throwing three interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick was anything but magical, while the running game was once again complete ghost compiling only 63 total yards.
Chicago, well it wasn’t pretty, but good teams find a way to win, right?
It might be too early to label the Bears as a playoff team, especially with the jury still out on Mitch Trubisky, but to come back from 14-points down to win away from home… full credit to Chicago, they are officially exceeding expectations.
This week’s game should be fun in the sense it’s a great pass-rush facing the top team in the yards-per-game column.
Fitzpatrick was lit up last week against the Steelers, particularly in the pocket, and as we saw, when he’s put under the pump and forced to make short throws rather than just heaving it long, turnovers happen.
The market has the Bucs down as the favourite in this one, but the bookies might have it wrong. Chicago at home are a force, and Tampa’s 5-20 record when facing the Bears at Soldier Field is well… not so good.
Tip: Back the Bears To Win 1-6 @ $3.60
You hate to write a team off in the first month of the season, but things don’t look great for the Falcons from here.
Simply put, last week should have resulted in a win for Dan Quinn’s side, especially after Matt Ryan threw for 374-yards and five touchdowns.
Instead, Atlanta found a way to lose to the Saints in overtime, while the news of Devonta Freeman’s injury only adds further salt to the Falcons’ wounds.
The Bengals were also on the losing side last week against the Panthers, sending Cincinnati spiralling back down to earth.
Andy Dalton looked invincible in the first two weeks of the season, but after throwing four interceptions against a pretty legit pass-rush, who knows, maybe we had the Bengals all wrong.
Ditto to the Falcons, the Bengals also dealt with some injury news of their own after star receiver A.J. Green pulled up with a sore groin. The news doesn’t look quite as bleak as Freeman’s, but it’s worrying nonetheless.
So… who’s winning this one?
Having won three of their last five meetings against Cincy, the Falcons are the favourites for a reason, and home-field advantage certainly helps their cause.
Interestingly enough, the Bengals have been below-par when it comes to defending the run, allowing the eighth most rushing yards per-game as well as three touchdowns.
Without Freeman, the Falcons may not be at their very best, but expect a big game from Tevin Coleman on the ground.
Tip: Back the Falcons 1-6 @ $4.50
To think, three years ago this would have been a primetime battle between two division rivals for NFC West supremacy.
Life comes at you fast, as the Cardinals quickly discovered last week. Up 14-0 on the Bears in the first quarter, it looked as though Arizona were on their way to their first win of the season, but low and behold, Sam Bradford managed to turn the ball over three-times in the second half to give the Bears a winning chance.
Things weren’t quite as complicated for the Seahawks, and it was encouraging to see the running game finally show signs of life behind Chris Carson in the win over the Cowboys.
Seattle’s biggest problem for much of the year has been Doug Baldwin’s absence, of course who could forget the migraine the defence has caused head coach Pete Carroll.
Last week the Seahawks looked like the Seattle of old though, picking Dak Prescott off twice and also forcing a fumble.
Against Sam Bradford and Arizona’s miserable offensive line, this should be a handy road win for Seattle to even their season at 2-2, and although David Johnson might have his way, it’s super tough to see the Cardinals playing a full four quarters of consistent football.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.95
Baker Mayfield will start Week 4, and if you’re going by his resounding second-half performance last week against the Jets, this could be a fun ride.
Tempering expectations is wise when it comes to judging a rookie quarterback – case in point Sam Darnold – but Mayfield’s ability to look defenders off last week and make pinpoint throws over the middle was certainly encouraging.
It’s a small one-game sample size, so let’s not get too carried away, but against this sloppy Raiders defence, you have to like Cleveland’s chances on the road.
Aside from a few big plays each game, Oakland have just looked dull. It was nice to see Jordy Nelson reel in six receptions last week, including his first touchdown as a Raiders, but aside from that, there’s not a whole lot of spark on either side of the ball.
One thing the Browns have been able to do well this season is rush the ball, which poses a match up nightmare against Oakland’s slow interior defence.
Isaiah Crowell exploded for a pair of scores last week, and don’t look now, but Cleveland actually rank seventh in the league in rushing yards per-game.
If the Browns can mix up the run/pass and take some of the pressure off Mayfield as he continues to adjust, Cleveland might be looking at back-to-back wins for the first time since November 2014.
Tip: Back the Browns To Win @ $2.30
Neither the Saints nor the Giants were anything special last week, but both got the job done in a pair of gutsy wins.
New York finally cracked the winners circle against the Texans thanks to a big day from Saquon Barkley on both sides of the ball.
The Saints, well they flat out stole one over the Falcons thanks to a massive day from Drew Brees. The future Hall of Famer threw just 10 incompletions, 396-yards and three touchdowns during New Orleans’ big overtime win.
History suggests this week’s game will be close, as the Giants and the Saints last two meetings were decided by only three points.
It also suggests the Saints are the team to back, owning a tidy 4-2 head-to-head record in their last six games against Big Blue.
Since neither of these sides are particularly fierce defensively, expect this game to be quite high scoring, but it remains to be seen if the Saints can win a second straight game on the road.
With that in mind, stick to the Total Points market and play it safe.
Tip: Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Big time hopes, big time disappointment for the 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s season ending knee injury sees C.J. Beathard take over the reins under centre, and with their star running back Jerrick McKinnon also done for the year, it’s hard to find things to like about San Francisco’s offense.
On the other side of the ball this week will be the Chargers, who are yet to really kick into gear this season.
For the most part, it’s been the defence that has let Los Angeles down. Joey Bosa’s absence defending the run has been obvious, and the stats don’t lie, the Chargers have allowed the ninth most rushing yards per-game this season.
Fortunately, the offense is capable of carrying the load, even though that hasn’t exactly been the case so far. Phillip Rivers has been piling on the yards, ranking seventh among quarterbacks, and we should see him have a big day at the office against the Niners.
Alongside Garoppolo, cornerback Richard Sherman is also set to miss a few weeks with a calf injury. San Francisco’s secondary has looked second-rate all season, and it doesn’t get any easier with Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon and Mike Williams up next.
Tip: Back the Chargers 13-18 @ $4.75
The Ravens are the quiet achievers this season, sitting pretty at 2-1 ahead of this week’s big AFC North divisional game.
The highlight of the season so far has been Alex Collins, who continues to prove his worth as a valuable first-down running back.
Speaking of running backs, the Steelers look done with Le’Veon Bell. Not to worry though, the offense didn’t miss a step last week against the Bucs.
Ben Roethlisberger extended his interception streak to three games, but the veteran threw for 353-yards and three touchdowns during Pittsburgh’s narrow win on the road.
As long as we’re rewinding to last week, it’s also worth revisiting how close the Steelers defence came to blowing a 23-point lead.
All year long the Steelers defence has appeared incapable of playing out a full four quarters, which won’t hold up long against the Ravens if Joe Flacco, John Brown and Michael Crabtree are all on the same page.
These games always come down to the wire, and you only have to look at last year’s 39-38 Steelers win in Week 17 to realise the line is probably the safest play this week.
Tip: Back the Ravens To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.87
The Broncos tasted their first loss of the season last week against the Ravens, and they’ll be hungry to knock off the undefeated Chiefs this week to gain the upper hand in the division.
Denver’s offense is reliant on the running game, which was a little quiet last week in Baltimore. The good news is Kansas City’s strong point isn’t defending the run, but the Broncos will need to come up with some defensive stops of their own if they are to derail the Chiefs at home.
Patrick Mahomes is doing things with the football that has the whole league watching, and even if he hasn’t won a Super Bowl just yet, head coach Andy Reid seems to have trick after trick up his sleeve.
The confusing part of matching up with the Chiefs is just that, matching up, There’s playmakers everywhere you look, and when Kansas City choose to roll with the run-pass-option, good luck to opposing defences.
Perhaps the Broncos can hang with the Chiefs this week, especially considering they’ve allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards this season.
The stats don’t lie, the Broncos are 12-5 in the head-to-head market when facing the Chiefs, and if they can just maybe light a fire underneath Demaryius Thomas, who is yet to catch for over 100-yards, who knows, maybe the upset might be on.
Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $2.80
2017
After a wild Week 3 where everything we thought we learned in the first fortnight was thrown on its head, we try to separate the real from the fake news in the NFL’s Week 4.
The Bears visit the Packers as they try to produce a second entertaining Thursday Night Football production to kickoff the round and as the oldest rivalry in the NFL, it’s looking good for compelling viewing.
With another Wembley game on the slate, fans here can pencil in a good 14 straight hours of NFL watching starting with the Saints and Dolphins.
Green Bay will be feeling pretty confident after their comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week while Chicago used their special teams and running game to spring an upset over AFC heavyweights Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers loves playing the Bears and looks set for a big game against a Bears defence that is giving up almost half of all third downs they face.
With only one interception in the last three years against the Bears, Rodgers will look to keep the ball moving in the air.
Chicago will want to try and keep the ball out of the hands of either quarterback by giving it to their dynamic running back duo Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
Cohen was bottled up in week 2 against the Buccaneers but has produced as a receiver in every game and has almost double the number of catches as Zach Miller.
These games on a short week tend to favour the team with better coaching and with that in mind, the combination of Rodgers and McCarthy should get them home with relatively little drama.
Back Green Bay to Cover -7 @ $1.87
The NFL returns to Wembley for the second time in a week and the hope is for a slightly more competitive game than Jacksonville’s blowout of Baltimore.
By all accounts the Saints were dead to rights before their three touchdown win over Carolina might have breathed some life into their season.
Drew Brees looks like he is getting on the same page as his receivers and while the running game is still working out the right mix, there are three capable ball carriers there.
The Dolphins were saved from being shut out by the Jets on a last play touchdown and are still scrapping their way through an uneven start to the season.
This is their third game in a row away from Miami despite being the home team on Sunday flying from Los Angeles to New York and now London.
Jay Cutler will want to protect the ball after the Saints intercepted Cam Newton three times and will be looking for more opportunities.
For this week, New Orleans seems like a more settled team, having already arrived in London and having time to adjust to the location so I expect them to win this game, maybe not by 37 points but a comfortable 2 score win.
Back the Saints to Cover -2.5 @ $1.87
If you look at the records and the scores, you might think a Super Bowl hangover has not hit Atlanta yet as they sit at 3-0 on top of the NFC South.
They have had a bit of luck to get there and it continued last week as a rule interpretation meant Detroit’s comeback fell short.
Matt Ryan threw his first three interceptions of the season against Detroit but otherwise is looking pretty much like his 2016 MVP level self.
Buffalo will be looking to make the Falcons one dimensional with one of the stingier defensive units in the league which is looking revitalised with Sean McDermott and his defensive pedigree running things.
Atlanta are looking to establish their new home as a fortress and while the energy might not match opening night, the Falcons should get by in this game.
Back Atlanta to Cover -7.5 @ $1.91
After putting up 10 sacks in week 1 against Houston, the Jaguars defence has slowed down significantly only notching three sacks in the last two weeks.
They are offsetting that with plenty of turnovers getting eight so far this season as they prepare to face Josh McCown who is liable to throw multiple interceptions at any point in time.
The Jets are in an interesting predicament as the fan base already have an eye on a high pick in next April’s NFL Draft.
It does not stop the players on the field still trying to play for their next big deal but it is making for an odd aura around that team this year.
Jacksonville on the other hand are looking to shake off the stink of previous seasons and are off to a good start under Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone.
Back Jacksonville to Cover -3 @ $1.85
Cleveland were expected to be in for another long season full of struggles as rookie Deshone Kizer adapted to life in the NFL.
Currently winless they come up against the Bengals who are also looking for their first victory of the season.
Cincinnati were in a make or break year as Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis look to establish themselves as long term solutions.
The Bengals played almost as well as they could have last week with the Dalton to A.J. Green connection getting going to the tune of 10 catches, 111 yards and a touchdown.
Until there is a clearer idea about what the Bengals are, steer clear of them even when it is against the Browns who have shown a bit of fight this year.
NO BET
Traditionally one of the more violent NFL rivalries, the Ravens and Steelers are almost always in contention for the division.
Pittsburgh have developed a reputation of a team that will play to the level of its opponent and this game could be determined by how they see the Ravens.
With the league’s worst passing attack and a mediocre running game, the Ravens have been able to get to a 2-1 record on the back of a defensive unit that was run all over last week.
Historically this game is always a tight contest with the game decided by one score and Pittsburgh will continue that trend here with a hard fought win.
Back Pittsburgh to Win by 1-6 Points @ $3.30
Carolina will go as far as Cam Newton’s shoulder will let them, he has had some poor throws with questionable accuracy so far but has also been able to make some big plays.
New England’s defence has given up plenty of yards and points so far so it could be a case of which side of the ball is able to make more big plays against the other one.
This game comes down to whether Newton and company are able to generate enough scoring plays for them to keep up with Tom Brady who is currently leading the league in passing yards.
One way or another there will be a lot of points scored in this game whether it is a shootout or one team blowing out the other so take the points while they are on offer.
Back the Over 49.5 @$1.91
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only side that Case Keenum is able to play well against it seems, posting a significantly higher quarterback rating against them than the rest of the league combined.
Detroit has a quarterback in great form and an offensive system he is very comfortable in and despite falling short, the rally against the Falcons last week will provide them with some (albeit small) comfort.
It is uncertain who will operate under centre for the Vikings with Sam Bradford’s knee still appearing troublesome however last week showed that they can still win games without him.
Until the status of Bradford is known, it’s hard to give a clear pick for this game so steer clear of the Vikings for now.
No Bet
A game for the fans of line play as two of the best units in the league face off as the Cowboys host the Rams.
Dallas has built an excellent offensive line that has successfully powered their ground game but they face a real tough assignment in the LA Rams which have all their stars back and ready to cause some trouble.
When they went against a similarly talented group in Denver two weeks ago, star back Zeke Elliot was limited to a mere eight yards and the Rams will need to keep him to a similar total if they want to have any success.
On the other side Jared Goff finally looks like he might live up to the billing of being the number one overall pick with a great game against the 49ers.
Dallas has shown some vulnerability defensively, particularly against the pass but DeMarcus Lawrence should add to his sack total with a big day here.
Back Dallas to Win -6.5 @ $1.95
Two young quarterbacks that look set to go head to head for the AFC South for years to come face off for the first time in the NFL.
In the draft process this year Watson received comparisons to the Titans Mariota and with the encouraging signs the rookie has shown in his two and a half games so far, this could be a highlight game.
Throwing for over 300 yards against the Patriots in New England is a sign that Watson can make the NFL throws including a great back shoulder pass to Ryan Griffin.
Mariota on the other side has two years of experience behind him and has an offensive system geared to his strengths.
The Titans will be going right at the strength of the Texans with their superstar defensive front seven but as their game against Seattle showed, they are not one to back down from a challenge.
That extra experience and attitude will make a big difference in this game as the Titans are able to get up in an exciting game.
Back Tennessee to Win @ $1.80
San Francisco gave fans an offensive explosion in their Thursday Night Shootout loss to the LA Rams while the Cardinals faded badly on Monday Night Football going down to the Cowboys.
The mismatch here looks to be in the respective ground games of the two teams with Carlos Hyde off to an excellent start this season while the Cardinals are struggling to get anything going in the absence of David Johnson.
Those struggles have put the pressure all on Carson Palmer’s shoulder’s and at this stage of his career he cannot get things going with Larry Fitzgerald alone.
Brian Hoyer on the other hand is not going to set the world alight but he does have a safety net on hand with Hyde and that is where the difference will come in and the 49ers could spring an upset as the gap between these two sides is not as big as the market might suggest.
Back San Francisco to win @ $3.80
Tampa had a day to forget in their visit to Minnesota while the Giants are having a season to forget, dropping their third straight game on the back of a 61 yard field goal attempt by a rookie kicker.
This is a series that the Giants have historically dominated, winning the last five meetings between the two.
Even with that in mind it is hard to see the Giants getting up in this game as the team is still yet to find its stride.
Odell Beckham should have a big game against a questionable Tampa secondary but the Giants do not appear to be able to give Manning enough time to get his throws off.
Back Tampa to Win -3 @ $1.91
Perhaps the most interesting part of the LA Chargers home games this year will be tracking whether or not the stadium is full and how many opposition fans.
It’s safe to say the local community have not embraced their new team just yet and the fact that they are 0-3 will not draw in the crowds.
After two heartbreaking losses the Chargers were comfortably beaten by the Chiefs and they have injury concerns with star back Melvin Gordon who has been inconsistent with his production so far.
Philadelphia are not exactly setting the world alight but have found a way to get themselves to 2-1 and tied for the division lead.
Carson Wentz lead a drive to given them an opportunity to beat the Giants last week and they pulled it off with a long field goal.
The Eagles are the better side here and while the cross country flight will take it out of them, they should be able to win.
Back Philadelphia to Win @ $2.10
Denver appear to be heading for the classification of a true up and down team that is hard to get a read on.
Momentum gained through two wins, including a resounding thumping of Dallas was completely lost with a shock defeat to the Buffalo Bills last week.
Oakland suffered a similarly surprising defeat in Washington on the premiere Sunday Night Football broadcast but it was the manner that they went down that was so surprising.
Comprehensively beaten on the road, the Raiders looked like anything but Super Bowl contenders and they now have another tough assignment in one of the NFL’s most imposing venues.
The season series has been split between these sides the last two times they have met and it would not be surprising to see this year follow suit.
On a neutral field Oakland would be slight favourites but in Mile High it is hard to go against the Broncos.
Back Denver to Win by 1-6 @ $3.60
Admittedly, the broadcasters might be regretting this choice as the feature game for the week as the Colts travel to the Pacific Northwest.
Indianapolis’ win against the Browns was anything but convincing and with the relatively poor roster across the board, it is easy to see why Seattle are such heavy favourites.
It is not the traditional Seahawks team that we are all used to seeing, as they undergo some September struggles which have been quite common under Pete Carroll.
Their vaunted run defence has been gashed repeatedly and if the Colts had anyone capable of running the ball you might give them a chance.
It might be easy to overthink this game but in this case, take Seattle at home and in primetime to get their job done, however from a gambling perspective there is not a whole lot of value there.
NO BET
The weekend of action ends with a massive clash at Arrowhead Stadium as the best team of September the Chiefs take on a confident Redskins outfit.
Washington created havoc up front and they will have a tough task to repeat that performance against a Kansas City offence that has become surprisingly versatile with the way they integrate the unique skills of their weapons.
Kareem Hunt will gain more and more attention as the season goes along given his phenomenal start to the season but the problem for opponents is that the more they focus on him, the more it will open up Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen down the field.
Andy Reid has created a side that has opponents off balance right now and it could be a few more games before teams get to figure them out so they should get by here.
Back Kansas City to Win -6.5 @ $1.87
2016
There are plenty of clashes between divisional rivals to get excited about in week 4 of the 2016 NFL season.
The AFC South is incredibly open this season and all four teams in that division will face off another a rival this weekend, while the Buffalo Bills have the chance to upstage the New England Patriots in the AFC East.
Throw in the battle between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons and this is one of the most exciting weeks in the early stages of the season, so don’t miss out on any of our tips below.
This is a crucial game for both sides that take an 1-2 record into this clash.
The Cincinnati Bengals were expected to be right in the fight for the AFC North title, but the risk losing touch with Pittsburgh following losses to both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos.
Cincinnati will go into this clash as clear favourites to return to winning form and they have won six out of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.
Miami scored their first win of the season over the hapless Cleveland Browns, but it was a far from pretty performance and they required overtime to get the job done.
It is fair to say that the Dolphins have struggled to click this season and the data does not suggest they can record an upset victory against the Bengals – they have won just two of their past ten matches as away underdogs and have been a losing betting proposition against the line.
Cincinnati should be able to return to winning form, but there is no real edge at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
No Bet
It has been a slow start to the season for both these AFC South rivals and they meet in a crucial clash at Wembley Stadium in London.
The Indianapolis Colts finally recorded their first win of the season over the San Diego Chargers last weekend and they are narrow favourites to make it two wins on the trot.
The Colts have generally struggled as the punter’s elect in the past 12 months and they have won just five of their past ten games as favourites, while they are 3-7 against the line.
Jacksonville are still chasing their first win of the season following their narrow loss to the Baltimore Ravens and the pressure is really building on a side that was expected to challenge for playoffs contention.
The Jaguars have won just two of their past ten games as underdogs, but they are 5-4-1 against the line with a start.
I expect this to be a very tight affair and I am keen to back the Jaguars with a start of 2.5 points.
Back Jacksonville To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
The Houston Texans were convincingly outplayed by the New England Patriots last Friday, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form against the Tennessee Titans.
The Texans are a far better team than that performance suggests and they are a better outfit than the Titans on both sides of the football.
Houston have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are 7-3 against the line in that scenario.
Tennessee struggled on offence against the Oakland Raiders and it is fair to say that it could be a very long season for Titans fans.
The Titans have won just three of their past ten games as away favourites and they have an identical record against the line.
Houston are one of the safest betting plays of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 6.5 points comfortably.
Back Houston To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
The Washington Redskins recorded their first win of the season over divisional rivals New York and they are dominant favourites to win again against the Cleveland Browns.
Washington have improved each time that they have played this season and if they are able to do that again than a victory over the Browns is highly likely.
The issue for the Redskins is that they have really struggled as home favourites in recent years – they have won just four of their past ten games in this scenario and they are 2-8 against the line.
Cleveland went extremely close to recording their first win of the season against the Miami Dolphins and Terrelle Pryor was simply incredible as a triple threat on offence.
The Browns have won just one of their past ten games as away underdogs and their record against the line is an unconvincing 4-6.
Both these teams are tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of.
No Bet
Seattle returned to winning form against the San Francisco 49ers, but they will face a much tougher assignment against the New York Jets this weekend.
Seattle will only start this game as narrow favourites, but they are a very safe bet as away favourites and have won five of their past six games in this situation.
The New York Jets produced their worst performance of the season to date when they went down to the Kansas City Chiefs and they will need to improve to have any chance of beating the Seahawks.
The Jets don’t start many games as away underdogs, but they don’t have a bad record in this scenario and they are 7-2-1 against the line.
There is evidence to suggest that New York are capable of winning this game, but the $1.80 available for a Seattle victory does look over the odds and they should be able to get the job done.
Back Seattle To Win @ $1.80
The quarterback dramas have continued at New England throughout the week and we are still unsure who will be under centre for the Patriots.
The scary thing is that it probably won’t matter – they are still going to be extremely tough to beat.
New England are now staring at a record of 4-0 without Tom Brady in the side and they are dominate favourites to take their record to just that.
The Patriots have won eight of their past nine games as home favourites for a handy profit, while they are 6-2-1 against the line in this scenario.
Buffalo produced the best performance of their season to date against the Arizona Cardinals and they will need another performance at that level to have any chance of recording an upset win.
The Bills have won just two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are just 2-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
The New England train should just keep rolling along and they are a safe bet to record another comfortable win.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-7 Points)
The Atlanta Falcons scored an emphatic victory over division rivals New Orleans on Tuesday, but they face a much tougher assignment against the Carolina Panthers last weekend.
Atlanta have surpassed expectations during the NFL season to date and they do have the offensive firepower to match it with an outfit like the Panthers.
The Falcons will go into this clash as underdogs, but they have won five out of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 7-3 against the line in this situation.
This is a big game for Carolina after they slumped to a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings last weekend.
The Panthers have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites, but their record against the line in this scenario is a poor 4-6.
Atlanta generally produce their best football in front of their home fans at the Georgia Dome and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of three points.
Back Atlanta To Beat The Line (+3 Points)
The Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders have both made very positive starts to the season.
They haven’t played the toughest competition, but the Ravens have made a flawless start to the season and they are clear favourites to record their fourth win on the trot.
Baltimore have now won six of their past ten games as home favourites, but their record against the line in this situation is still a very poor 2-7-1.
Oakland bounced back from their disappointing defeat to the Atlanta Falcons to grind out a narrow victory over the Tennessee Titans.
The Raiders have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs for a narrow profit and they have been a highly profitable 7-3 against the line in this situation.
Oakland continue to prove a positive betting play and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 3.5 points.
Back Oakland To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
The Detroit Lions have made a credible to the NFL season and they will go into this clash with the Chicago Bears as favourites.
Detroit beat the Indianapolis Colts in the opening week of the season and they were only narrowly denied by both the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers.
The issue for the Lions in this clash is that their record as away favourites is far from convincing and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario since 2013.
Chicago were nothing short of dreadful against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and they have never looked like winning a game so far this season.
Soldier Field has been far from a fortress for Chicago in recent seasons and they have won just one of their ten games as home underdogs, while they are 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
This is another game in which I don’t trust either of the teams from a betting perspective.
No Bet
The defending Super Bowl champions have made an excellent start to their defence and they have a very winnable clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Denver showed that they have no trouble winning on the road when they beat Cincinnati last weekend and they have won seven out of their past ten games as away favourites, while they are 5-4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Tampa Bay started their season with a victory against the Atlanta Falcons, but they have season suffered disappointing defeats at the hands of both Arizona and Los Angeles.
There were some positive in their defeat at the hands of the Rams and Jameis Winston will need to have another very big game for the Buccaneers to have any chance of winning this game.
Tampa Bay have won just two of their past ten games as home underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a flat 4-6.
Denver should be able to continue their flawless start to the season and the line of three points does not look like anywhere near enough.
Back Denver To Beat The Line (-3 Points)
This is a crucial game for both sides.
Arizona have recorded just one win this season following their shock loss to the Buffalo Bills last weekend, but they will still go into this game as clear favourites.
The Cardinals had problems on both sides of the football against the Bills, but they are a better side than that performance indicates and the market suggests that they will have no problems bouncing back.
Arizona have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites, but they have often unperformed against the betting market and they are 4-5-1 against the line in this situation.
The Los Angeles Rams were nothing short of disgraceful against the San Francisco 49ers in the first week of the NFL season, but they have bounce back to record fighting victories over both Seattle and Tampa Bay.
It is always tough to know what to expect from the Rams, but they generally struggle on the road and they have not proven to be a positive betting proposition as away underdogs.
Arizona are clearly the team to beat in this fixture, but they are well under the odds at their current price and there is no real value in this fixture.
No Bet
The New Orleans Saints head into this clash under plenty of pressure after starting their season with three start losses.
Defence is once again a very big problem for New Orleans and it is sure to be an issue again against the Chargers and Phillip Rivers.
New Orleans will start this game as clear underdogs, but this has been a position they have thrived in in recent seasons – they have won four of their past ten games and are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
San Diego are yet to produce a poor performance this season, but they still have only one win from their first three games.
Favourtism is not a position that the Chargers have thrived in in the past couple of seasons and they are just 3-7 against the line in their past ten games as home favourites.
This should be a shoot-out and I am more than happy to back the Saints with a start of four points.
Back New Orleans To Beat The Line (+4 Points)
It has been a promising start to the new era at the Dallas Cowboys as Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliot have been able to lead the franchise to two wins from their three games.
Dallas were particularly impressive against the Chicago Bears and a repeat of that performance should be more than enough to account for the San Francisco 49ers.
The Cowboys have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites for a healthy profit and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
San Franisco started their season with an impressive win over the Los Angeles Rams, but they have since suffered big defeats at the hands of the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.
This is a team that clearly has problem on offence, but they have generally over-performed as home underdogs and are 6-3-1 against the line in this scenario.
The market looks to have got this game just about right and it is not a fixture that I am keen to get involved in from a betting perspective.
No Bet
This will be a very interesting clash between two teams that currently have a 2-1 record.
Pittsburgh were stunned by a rampant Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites after they started their season with wins over both Washington and Cincinnati.
The Steelers have an excellent record at Heinz Field and they have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 6-3-1 against the line.
Kansas City returned to their best form with a dominant performance against the New York Jets and their defence will need to produce another stellar performance to have any chance against the Steelers.
The Chiefs have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
I expect Pittsburgh to return to winning form in fairly emphatic fashion and they should be able to cover the line of 5.5 points comfortably.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
The Minnesota Vikings produced their best performance of the season to date to upstage the Carolina Panthers and they will take plenty of confidence into this clash with the New York Giants.
Minnesota’a defence made Cam Newton look like a very average quarterback and Sam Bradford appears to be fitting in well with the new system.
Minnesota are clear favourites in this clash and they have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 8-2 against the line in this scenario.
New York suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of the Washington Redskins and they will need to produce an improved performance on both sides of the football to beat the Vikings.
The Giants have generally struggled away from home in the past couple of seasons and they have won just three of their past ten games as away underdogs, while they are 4-5-1 against the line.
Minnesota are one of the safest bets of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 4.5 points.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)