Four games in and some teams are already fighting to keep their season alive in the NFL this weekend.
For the 10 teams with a 1-3 or 0-4 record they know they have lost their margin for error and the focus could turn towards the draft if things continue to go south for them in Week 5.
However we get a good game to kick off in Los Angeles with an NFC West battle between the Rams and 49ers as both teams look for their fourth win of the season.
Monday morning brings us another game from Britain, with Tottenham Stadium the venue as the Browns host the Vikings.
A long day wraps up with an all AFC East feature game in Buffalo between the Bills and Patriots with the visitors looking to prove last week’s big win was a sign of things to come rather than an anomaly.
Find our full Week 5 breakdown for the NFL with our preview below.
Based on preseason expectations, it shouldn’t be all that surprising to see either of these teams at 3-1 but the fact both of them are is a bit of a shock.
Especially when you consider the health issues both have had to navigate through preseason and the opening month of games.
San Francisco has already had to get through a couple of weeks without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who could be caught out by the short turnaround from last week’s loss to Jacksonville.
The four day gap was not be enough time for the injury that he re-aggravated to recover and it will lead to another start for Mac Jones, who was surprisingly competent in wins over the Saints and Cardinals.
However the Rams defence is a much tougher front for San Francisco to deal with and I just can’t see the 49ers moving the ball enough to keep pace with LA.
Sean McVay’s team have been good for at least 26 points in their last three games and even if the 49ers crowd does invade SoFi, the Rams should be used to dealing with opposing fans in their home ground.
LA just has too much firepower for San Francisco to deal with and I’ll back them to get the job done.
If the NFL is serious about putting a team or teams in London full time, this is the perfect game to put in there to show that not every game is a classic.
Actually to be fair, more than a few of the London games over the last 18 years have shown that with some pretty poor matchups.
Cleveland made the rumoured quarterback change official with rookie Dillon Gabriel replacing veteran Joe Flacco in the lineup, while third string Shedur Sanders remained in that slot.
Things are not good on or off the field for Cleveland’s offence with Sanders conducting a muted press conference after the decision was announced.
Granted the starting quarterback won’t make a huge difference for an inept Browns offence that just can’t move the ball at all right now.
Minnesota’s defence dreams of matchups like this one and they are going to have a field day against Gabriel, especially having spent over the week overseas following their game in Ireland last week.
Vikings by a comfortable margin.
What should the Cowboys be more worried about heading into this game, a defence that is giving up over 30 points per game or a potential hangover after a tense 40-40 tie last week.
Whatever the answer to that question is, the Jets are way down the list of concerns with a team that just can’t do anything right.
At 0-4 things are looking bleak in New Jersey, especially after three turnovers cruelled their chances of winning in Miami last week.
They should be able to score some points on offence, but considering they have given up 34, 30, 29 and 27 points this season, Dallas should easily find a way into the 30’s.
Despite a 4-0 start and being the reigning Super Bowl champions, something just doesn’t seem right with the Eagles at the moment.
Maybe it’s the fact all four of their games in an admittedly tough start have been decided by a single score, or that one of their receivers AJ Brown is seemingly begging for a trade.
Denver has had a mixed start to the season and demolished Cincinnati last week, but that also does come with the caveat of it being against a hapless Bengals side.
Points could be at a premium in this contest and with both teams happily leaning into their running games, possessions and touchdowns might be lower than average.
With both teams trying to overcome a 1-3 start, the desperation will be off the charts on both sidelines at M&T Bank Stadium.
Making things even tougher for Baltimore is the fact two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson is (probably) going to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury.
Granted they still have the best running back of the last decade in Derrick Henry to lean on and he should be fresh after just eight carries last week and a pretty light workload to start the season by his standards.
You can talk yourself into Baltimore still being somewhat productive because Houston did give up a lot of rushing yards to Tampa Bay in Week 2 so the can be taken advantage of on the ground.
Not to mention Baltimore will probably need to score because their defence has been atrocious this season and it could be a get-right game for CJ Stroud and company.
This game could go either way but there will be some points put on the board.
Let’s not pretend like the Colts had a great game last week in LA, but they held their own despite a litany of errors.
Las Vegas has dropped three straight after their Week 1 win in New England and despite Ashton Jeanty’s breakout game, they were by and large pretty poor against Chicago.
Two weeks ago they were gashed by Washington to the tune of 201 yards on the ground and the Colts have been driven largely by their ground game, lead by Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts running back leads the league in yards and the team goes as he goes, because he takes a lot of pressure off Daniel Jones the way Saquon Barkley did for him in 2022 with the Giants.
After a rough day against the Rams, I like Taylor to bounce back and guide the Colts to another win.
There is absolutely nothing to get excited about with this game as two of the worst teams in the league face off in Carolina.
The Panthers’ demolition of Atlanta was quickly thrown out the window as they were belted by the Patriots and Dave Canales was waving the white flag by the middle of the second quarter.
Miami got their first win of the season last week, but that might have had more to do with playing the Jets than their season suddenly turning around.
Neither defence looks overly strong and frankly, someone has to score a touchdown so let’s have a play on Panthers rookie Tet McMillan to find the end zone for the first time in his career.
After all, he might be the lone reason to watch when Carolina is in possession at the moment.
As expected, the Saints are off to an 0-4 start but they have shown a bit more fight than expected through the opening month.
Outside of a blowout loss in Seattle, they have had some moments and have been made favourites against the Giants.
Yep, that’s right the Saints are favoured in a game this week, nobody is quite sure why even with the Giants coming into this game without their most dynamic offensive player in Malik Nabers.
New York got a spark from rookie quarterback Jackson Dart and their pass rush dominated the Chargers offensive line.
Look for a heavy dose of the Giants ground game as they control the time of possession and let their pass rush get after Spencer Rattler.
Thanks to star players dropping like flies around the league, this game suddenly could be the best one of the weekend.
With both teams at 3-1, they will both be eager to continue their strong starts and you really can make a case for both.
But there is some value about Bucs rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka who has already scored four touchdowns this season, and every score the Seahawks have given up have been through the air.
We should see both quarterbacks having to make a couple of big throws in the red zone to convert on their chances and Egbuka has already emerged as a reliable option for Baker Mayfield.
When your rookie quarterback is already fed up with the team four weeks into the season, you know things are going badly.
Tennessee does not seem like a happy place to be right now as the Titans fell to 0-4 getting shut out by the Houston Texans.
Their offensive production has declined over the last three weeks and frankly, there isn’t a good reason to back them to do anything right now.
Arizona has shown flashes of competence, but consistency remains a real issue, although they only have to put together a couple of good possessions to see off the Titans.
This should have been a great game but the Bengals are without Joe Burrow and without hope of fielding a competent offence.
Jake Browning is a solid backup but there is only so much he can do when running for his life behind a hapless offensive line.
Detroit has more than made up for their Week 1 flop in Green Bay, thumping the Bears and Browns either side of a high scoring win in Baltimore.
The Lions are out there with a point to prove and this could get 2002-level ugly in Cincinnati.
We are going to get two very motivated teams in this game, with the Chargers returning home after a poor performance against the Giants handed them their first loss of the season.
However the Commanders are going to get a huge boost with the return of the dynamic quarterback Jayden Daniels which upgrades their offence in a big way.
They held their own while he was out, splitting games against the Raiders and Falcons to at least stay afloat.
But these are two teams that are more than happy to roll the dice on offence and put up plenty of yardage which in turn leads to points.
Despite one of the higher points totals of the season I’m still taking the over.
If New England wants to prove they are a legitimate playoff team this season, going into Buffalo and upsetting the 4-0 Bills will go a long way towards bolstering that case.
Despite a 42-13 hammering of Carolina last week, it’s too early to be crowing them and if they can cover this +7.5 spread that might still be a mark in their favour.
With the way the Bills have started this season, especially Josh Allen and James Cook you just can’t back against them though.
Allen has by and large had his way with the Patriots over the last five seasons and he is going have another big day as the Bills go off.
New England might have their moments where they keep this close for large stretches, but the Bills are going to get the job done.
Are the Jaguars actually good?
Their 3-1 start has been better than expected, but their wins have all come against struggling opponents.
Now they catch Kansas City at the worst possible time as the Chiefs appear to have rediscovered their mojo.
Patrick Mahomes crushed the Ravens last week with four touchdown passes and will be eager to tee off on this Jags defence.
I’m giving Jacksonville a chance of keeping it close, but the Chiefs are still the Chiefs and you have to expect them to find a way to win.
2024
As we cross over the quarter mark of the 2024 NFL season we have plenty to look forward to this weekend with a number of big divisional games, a trip to London and more.
It kicks off in Atlanta on Friday morning (AEST) as the Falcons and Buccaneers face off in what promises to be a fascinating clash.
Then it is a very early start to the Monday marathon with the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings “hosting” the New York Jets in North London.
From there we will have a plethora of action headlined by the Bengals hosting the Ravens and the injury depleted 49ers taking on the Cardinals.
Meanwhile the first four byes of the season come into play with the Lions, Eagles, Chargers and Titans all getting a very early weekend off.
Read on for our previews and best bets for all 14 games in Week 5 of the NFL.
After a rusty first up performance, the Falcons will be pretty happy with how the last three weeks have unfolded, getting themselves to 2-2 on the season.
That has them just one win behind division leading Tampa Bay who will be coming off a big win over Philadelphia last weekend.
To be blunt, there is a decent case to be made for both of these teams and there is a real chance that one just does not show up to play here.
So rather than trying to force a pick one way or another, let’s have a dip into the player markets.
Both defences have shown some vulnerabilities on the ground and there are a couple of more than capable running backs with some low production numbers.
Starting in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson has been stifled by a pair of decent defences in the last couple of weeks and even with Tampa set to welcome back their defensive anchor Vita Vea, Robinson should be set for a decent evening.
On the other side, we have rookie Bucky Irving who is averaging just over 50 yards per game and is the only running back to score for the Bucs this season.
Let’s pair those two up to do something decent for a same game multi.
SGM: Bijan Robinson 50+ Rush Yards, Bucky Irving 40+ Rush Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $4.29
Minnesota might just be a damn good with Sam Darnold at the helm and the fans in London have been given a pretty decent matchup to kick off their three game set of matches.
As the lone unbeaten team in the NFC, the Vikings have done it on the back of a whole team effort with a stifling defence that has shut down a couple of good offences and a strong start to the season from the guy who is only playing thanks to JJ McCarthy’s knee injury.
If Minnesota is a consistently good team, then the Jets are a horrifically inconsistent team that can be really good on their day.
Any suggestions that their nine point effort at home against Denver was solely down to the wretched weather conditions in New Jersey is simply trying to cover up the bubbling concern under the surface.
Perhaps the biggest concern is Aaron Rodgers’ apparent aversion to sitting in the pocket and taking a hit, something that does not bode well against this Vikings pass rush.
I’m quite bullish on the Vikings not only winning this game but doing so in a pretty convincing manner and the line of less than a field goal is good enough for me.
Minnesota to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
This AFC North stoush is another one of those games where the more you think about it, the tougher it gets to predict.
The initial pick was just taking Baltimore to win at $1.70 as they are coming into this game on the back of two straight wins, including a dominant victory over Buffalo last week and their offence looks better and better every week.
However Cincinnati are a couple of plays away from flipping their record to 1-3, but they have only beaten Carolina so far this season and that effort last week did not allay every last concern.
Not to mention when their talent does click, especially on offence they are tough to stop.
Both teams have increased their scoring output each week on the season and have combined for 130 points in their last two games.
Chances are Baltimore will win this game, but the over looks like the much better bet in this market.
Over 49.5 Points @ $1.90
There are two approaches you can take to betting on this game and it all comes down to how much stock you want to put in Buffalo’s loss last week.
Either it was an aberration against a good team that was highly motivated or it was a sign that maybe there are some limitations on what this team can do with their roster as it is currently constituted.
Houston has done enough in the first month to post a 3-1 record but they still have a lot of room for improvement with their victories coming by a combined margin of 12 points, while their loss in Minnesota was by 27.
If Buffalo shows up and Josh Allen is ready to go into superhuman mode then it could be game over early however I just can’t shake the opinion that Houston as a home underdog is the best value on offer for this game.
Houston to Win @ $1.98
If you want to emphasise the (few) positives about the Carolina Panthers at the moment, it’s that they are a bit more competitive with Andy Dalton running the show.
They might not be good enough to win more than three or four games this season but they might lot lose by 20+ points every week.
Conversely, Chicago isn’t good enough to blow anyone out with all of their games decided by seven points or less, splitting them with two wins and two losses.
Chicago should win this game, but it probably won’t be by a lot just because they aren’t good enough.
Chicago to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
It might just be time to go all in on the Washington Commanders and their stud rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
He is setting all sorts of records for efficiency through the first month of the season and they are well placed to handle the 1-3 Browns.
Based on Cleveland’s effort last week in Las Vegas and their opening practice report of the week, they are not exactly going into this week in peak health and are likely going to be overmatched.
Washington to Cover -3.5 @ $1.94
There are way too many unknowns around this game to make any sort of bold and declarative statements… but Jacksonville absolutely has to win this one ahead of a fortnight in London.
At 0-4 their playoff hopes are pretty much done and now they are playing to save their head coach’s job as they are staring down the barrel of ten straight losses dating back to last season.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis has a massive question mark at quarterback but assuming whichever guy starts is healthy, they should be more than capable on offence.
Perhaps this is the week where Jacksonville finally sorts themselves out but until they do they are in the “back against at all costs” category.
Indianapolis to Win @ $2.25
There are not many positive things you can say about this game with two pretty poor teams facing off in Foxborough.
If the Dolphins were healthy they would easily be able to account for one of the worst Patriots teams since before Drew Bledsoe was drafted, but they are not and they cannot score points.
By the sounds of it, New England’s already shallow roster has taken even more injury hits this week and they cannot block to save themselves.
If either of these teams can reach 14 points, they will win, but it might not even be that high scoring.
Under 36.5 Points @ $1.90
Over the last two seasons, this has been a one sided divisional rivalry with San Francisco winning every game by at least a two-touchdown margin.
In all four of those games they have scored 35 or more points, and despite a bit of an injury crisis on offence, San Francisco has the personnel and scheme to get after the Cardinals.
Two weeks ago Detroit ran for 187 yards as a team on the Cards and Washington generated 216 yards just on the ground.
Those numbers all point towards a long afternoon regardless of which 49ers player is running the ball and Jordan Mason fantasy owners could be ecstatic come Monday lunchtime.
San Francisco to Cover -7.5 @ $1.94
Denver might not be world beaters but they have a fair bit going for them, especially their work rate which is going to give them a chance to win more games than they otherwise would.
Last week’s win over the Jets is not going to win any awards for aesthetics but they did enough to win and that defence is starting to look pretty good, giving up 29 points over their last three games.
Up next is a visit from a Raiders team that is going to be missing their best player through injury (who also happens to want to be traded away) and has its share of problems.
Maybe it’s overestimating the Broncos but backing them looks like one of the best bets of the entire week.
Denver to Cover -3 @ $1.94
The Rams are back at home for the entire month of October with three games at SoFi Stadium surrounding a Week 6 bye.
That might be a welcome relief for them with their one win coming at the site of their most recent Super Bowl triumph.
However they rode their luck in that win more than a bit and there are still some questions over their defence which has given up 24 or more points in each of their games to date.
Green Bay is rolling on offence and Jordan Love will be much better having had last week to re-acclimatise after missing a couple of games through injury.
Both teams should be able to move the ball and the best play in this game looks to be the over which probably should be over 50 points given what both teams are capable of doing.
Over 48.5 Points @ $1.90
It is so tempting to back Seattle to win this game by 14+ but there is a major worry that they are going to come into this game flat after their exertions in Detroit on Monday Night Football.
Geno Smith in particular looked exhausted by the end as he carried his team up and down the field and it just was not enough.
That does open the door for the Giants to come in and spring an upset as they are coming off a Thursday Night Football loss at home to Dallas.
However the Giants just can’t really do much on offence and with their one legitimate receiver Malik Nabers in concussion protocol, it does not bode well for their chances of an upset.
Even with the fatigue factor, Seattle should be able to do more than enough to comfortably account for the Giants.
Seattle to Win by 14+ @ $3.25
This time last week, Pittsburgh would have been the easy choice in this market but Indianapolis putting 27 on them last week is a bit of a cause for concern.
Dallas has enough weapons in their arsenal to negate JJ Watt although their inefficiency converting field position into touchdowns is not the most reassuring of stats.
However they have arguably the best kicker in the league at the moment in Brandon Aubrey and with the Steelers struggling to get much of anything going on offence, Dallas looks like the way to go.
Dallas to Win @ $2.10
At what point do the Chiefs reach a critical mass of injuries with so many players unavailable or limited?
It might come this week as a feisty Saints team comes to town for a primetime game and let’s be fair, the Chiefs have been riding their luck winning their last seven games by one score.
Even the great Patrick Mahomes is not looking like himself and at some point a team is going to successfully take advantage of the reigning champions’ shortcomings.
New Orleans is good enough to do just that on their day, but they can’t seem to avoid shooting themselves in the foot at critical moments, like a critical pass interference penalty last week to lose a game to the Falcons despite not giving up an offensive touchdown.
This is going to be close, but Kansas City should win this one again because that’s just what they do every damn week.
Kansas City to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.20
2023
Week 5 brings us the first set of byes this season and that means there is only 14 NFL games on the cards over the next few days.
Out of all the games this weekend, the best we can say about Friday’s clash between the Commanders and Bears is that it is one of them.
It’s going to be a long Monday for fans with another London games kick starting the action as the Jaguars will play at Wembley again, this time as the visitor when they play Buffalo.
Closing that day out is another chapter in the Cowboys-49ers rivalry from Levi’s Stadium with both teams coming off big wins.
There’s plenty to look forward to and we’ve got you covered with our NFL Week 5 tips and previews below!
Almost a year to the day after Denver and Indianapolis faced off in one of the worst games in league history that I’m still convinced had Al Michaels ready to call it a career, we get a game that could rival it for futility.
In all fairness, the Commanders haven’t been that bad this NFL season, but the Bears are on the way to setting new records in futility across the board.
They just can’t get out of their own way and while they probably are not going 0-17, I might not tip them in any game this year.
I’m expecting plenty of rushing in this game, Washington because they want to while Justin Fields will be running for his life to try and evade the Commies pass rush.
Brian Robinson has been quite productive for the Commanders this season reaching 70 yards twice while Fields’ best weapon at the moment is his legs so expect him to have a fair few carries, planned or otherwise.
SGM: Washington to Cover -5.5, Brian Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards, Justin Fields Over 46.5 Rushing Yards @ $7.93
Well that was certainly definitive from the Bills last week.
Despite Miami coming into town full of confidence the Bills issued a thorough beatdown and reminded everyone who is the alpha team in the division.
Now they head over to London to take on an up and down (but mostly down) Jacksonville side who have spent the week in London following their win over the Falcons.
The only adjustment they have to make is going to the visitors locker room since this is technically a Buffalo home game.
However with the way they have looked so far, it’s tough to have any confidence in the Jaguars with just about every game of theirs being much more of a grind than a good team should make them.
Travel might serve as a bit of an equaliser between these teams but with the way the Bills are rolling at the moment, they should take care of business.
Buffalo to Win and Over 48.5 Points @ $2.55
Baltimore is always a tough team to get a read on but through the opening month of the season they have been pretty good outside of their loss to the Colts.
They might be set to receive a big break for the second straight week as (at the time of publish) there are major questions around the status of Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett.
The second year signal caller left last week’s loss to Houston with a knee injury and was replaced by Mitchell Trubisky, although Pickett wasn’t exactly lighting it up before his injury.
In fact, Pittsburgh’s offence has been one of the major disappointments of the season to date with just about every performance being a massive grind.
Baltimore might get another boost with a couple of injured players set to return to the lineup and help Lamar Jackson out.
These games are always tight and Pittsburgh’s defence won’t want to get embarrassed two weeks in a row so they should be able to at least keep it close.
Baltimore to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.25
Carolina is trying but they just are not that good and they are one of two winless teams.
Just like the Bears they are not going 0-17, there is too much pride in that team but it’s tough to find a spot where you’d actually want to tip them to win.
Detroit is on a roll and comes into this game with a few extra days of rest after their biggest win of the season (by margin) in Green Bay last Friday.
Last year when they met in Charlotte the Panthers surprised plenty of pundits with a 37-23 win but I cannot see a repeat of that one here.
Detroit is just that much better and with some key contributors returning to the team in the last few weeks, Carolina is not going to be able to hold out for all four quarters.
Detroit to Cover -13 @ $2.40
Throughout the entire Draft process back in April and preseason I was adamant that C.J. Stroud was going to be a really good quarterback for the Texans… eventually.
But the former Ohio State player has surprised everyone with how quickly he has adapted to life in the NFL, he’s good now and there’s still plenty of room to grow.
Perhaps most impressively, he isn’t exactly getting a lot of help from his running game with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary averaging a paltry 3.03 yards off 91 carries as a tandem.
The same platitudes cannot be extended to Desmond Ridder in Atlanta who is not getting the job done for the Falcons.
With him at the helm they have combined for a grand total of 13 points in their last two games including last week’s game in London where the receivers were starting to let their frustrations show.
Houston has already gone on the road and won once this season and I see no reason why they can’t do it again.
Houston to Win @ $2.10
A decade ago, playoff mainstays the Patriots and Saints faced off at Gillette Stadium in a classic contest that was decided by a late Tom Brady touchdown to then-rookie Kenbrell Thompkins.
It’s definitely not 2013 anymore for both of these teams and they are coming off a pair of wretched efforts in Week 4.
Neither team appears to have the answer at quarterback and this could be a race to 20 points… if either side can get to 20 that is.
New England looks like a team bereft of ideas, confidence and a clue at times and even though they are at home here, it doesn’t really make sense for them to be favoured.
Having lost arguably their two best players on defence last week they are scrambling to field a capable 11 on both sides of the ball and I’ll happily take them on here.
New Orleans to Win @ $1.94
Let’s get a bit creative with this market since the Dolphins are (justifiably) short priced favourites.
Their fast start in Buffalo fizzled out last week and they lost for the first time this season, but the Giants are the perfect bounce back opponent.
I’m not expecting this one to be close and Miami should be able to easily cover this spread, however with the likely return of Saquon Barkley for the Giants, I’ll back them to score enough points to send this over.
As for who is going to score, let’s stick with the dynamic duo to bounce back after failing to find the end zone last week.
Both had very quiet days and Moestert had a pair of fumbles but a touchdown apiece is the best way to get past that.
SGM: Miami -11, Over 48.5 Points, Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert Anytime TD Scorer @ $6.02
In all honesty, I thought there was a reasonable chance that the Colts would be out of playoff contention by the time this game rolls around and the Titans would be clinging on for dear life.
Instead they are part of the four-way tie at the top of the AFC South and are probably thinking about going on a run in the coming weeks.
Even when rookie Anthony Richardson missed a game the Colts had enough playmaking ability to get by Baltimore before taking the Rams to overtime last week.
Tennessee isn’t exactly a powerhouse offensively with Derrick Henry starting to hit the twilight of his career but they can still put up points, just ask the Cincinnati Bengals.
This one looks like a possible overtime candidate and it really could go either way, but both teams are good enough to make it into the 20’s and I’ll back the over.
Over 43 Points @ $1.90
Who do you like in this one, the good team that is playing poorly or the bad team that is eking out every last drop of fight and at least playing hard.
It’s tough to assume that one calf muscle could derail an entire team’s fortunes but until Joe Burrow looks like Joe Burrow, you have to worry about the Bengals productivity.
They have really struggled to move the ball and were just flat out bad in their loss at Tennessee last week.
Arizona’s roster has kept them in just about every game save for the 49ers, but you do wonder how long they will keep fighting as the losses grow and the motivation wanes.
Cincinnati at least has room to improve, plenty of it in fact, and I’ll keep my faith with the Bengals for this week at least.
Cincinnati to Cover -3 @ $1.94
I’m not willing to read too much into the Eagles being pushed to overtime by a bang average Commanders team last week, for some reason Washington just seems to match up well with them.
The Rams are coming off their own overtime win in Indianapolis last week and the mooted return of Cooper Kupp makes them a lot more dangerous but the Eagles just have too much going for them to back against.
Whether it’s Jalen Hurts running on his own, throwing it to his receivers or tight ends or handing off to D’Andre Swift the Rams just don’t look like they have the personnel to match them in a shootout.
The total is just a little bit too high to back in as well, but I like the Eagles to win and cover in this one.
Philadelphia to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
Minnesota finally got their first win of the season and as a reward for that they get to host the defending champions.
Kansas City is picking up wins in spite of not playing that well, that game against the Jets last week was a lot closer than it should have been, and I’m expecting that trend to continue in this game.
Defensively Minnesota just hasn’t looked that good and they will be dreading the fact that Kansas City can win this by running for 250 yards like Philadelphia in Week 2 or throwing for 440 yards like the Chargers in Week 3.
On the plus side Justin Jefferson is going to be able to keep Minnesota in this game because he is that dynamic, so the final score is probably going to be closer than the actual game on the field might suggest it could be.
Kansas City to Win by 1-13 @ $2.20
If you are not a hardcore Broncos or Jets fan, nobody would blame you for assuming this game just didn’t exist and if you are a fan of either team few people would blame you for doing the same.
Maybe it’s unfair to call the Jets a bad team because outside of the quarterback they have some good talent and last week the Zac Wilson wasn’t awful, but the results speak for themselves.
When you get two bad teams facing off there’s a simple option, take the over and hope that the game accidentally becomes a shootout.
Over 43 Points @ $1.90
That’s four wins in a row for the 49ers, they have scored at least 30 points in every game and kept three of their four opponents under 20 points.
Dallas is going to present their toughest challenge yet although there is only so much we can take from their win over New England where the game was basically handed to them.
In the playoffs last season, San Francisco won a hard fought grind of a contest 19-12 and if that is how this game unfolds, they won’t mind it one bit.
I like the 49ers at the line here, they have won their last 14 regular season games, 10 of which have been by double digit margins.
They are a wagon and I’ll jump on for the ride in Week 5.
San Francisco to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
Las Vegas is on track for one of the more dysfunctional seasons in NFL history and there’s a chance they opt for a massive rebuild before the season is done.
Turnovers have undone any positive offensive production with 10 through four games and just one from their porous defence.
The success of the Bills and Chargers running the ball on this defence will be music to the ears of the Packers running backs who look like they are going to be in for a big day.
Green Bay might just be a middle of the road team but they are good enough to beat bad teams and the Raiders are a bad team so far.
Green Bay to Win @ $1.87
2022
Week 5 used to be the quarter pole of every team’s season and the start of the bye weeks in the NFL but with the addition of an extra week, we’re not quite there yet.
On the plus side there are big games aplenty across the board over the next few days in the National Football League with different areas of intrigue in just about every contest.
Indianapolis and Denver will both be desperate to prove their slower than expected starts were not indicators of what each team is going to be as they face off on Thursday Night Football.
Monday kicks off in London again with the 3-1 Packers and Giants set to use the game as a measuring stick before the two remaining primetime games feature massive AFC divisional battles.
Read on for our previews and best bets for every game below.
It’s not a massive stretch to say that last week’s Friday game had plenty of intrigue about it with two Formula 1 level offences.
Sticking with that metaphor, this game will be a bit more like watching a pair of 1980’s Alfa Romeos, especially when they continually break down.
Neither offence has lit it up with Indianapolis tallying 57 points through four games and Denver scoring 66.
That combined tally would be less than what the Chiefs and Lions have scored on their own and only four points more than the Baltimore Ravens total.
It won’t be a high scoring affair here, with both teams dealing with injuries to key players.
Denver lost its most dynamic running back Javonte Williams to a torn ACL while Indianapolis will be without their workhorse Jonathan Taylor for this week.
That puts all the more pressure on Matt Ryan but with Michael Pittman working into form, he is a lot better positioned to guide the Colts to a win on the road.
Denver just has not looked like a cohesive team at any stage this season and I am happy to take them on.
SGM: Colts to Win, Under 47 Points and Matt Ryan 225+ Passing Yards @ $5.01
Even the most ardent Giants fan will be wondering how this team has found its way to a 3-1 record considering the lack of offensive production.
If you wanted to nitpick, you could easily make a case that two of their three wins have come against teams that will be picking in the top five in April’s draft and a Titans team that may not be as good as some hoped.
Green Bay is well off their best as Aaron Rodgers adapts to a new wide receiver group, but we saw what happens when he puts his foot down, rescuing the Packers almost on his own against New England Patriots last week.
They are getting healthier which sets them up to go on a run in the next few weeks with a number of easy games coming up.
All they will need to do to win here is to score 20 points and with injury clouds over the Giants quarterback room, they should be able to take an early lead and control the game.
Back Green Bay by 1-13 Points @ $2.30
Most punters should be happy to take on the offensively inept Bears for the time being, at least until they decide to show a modicum of faith in Justin Fields’ right arm.
Until then though, they should be bet against as often as possible.
It’s not an easy spot for Minnesota however, coming off a tough game in London last weekend and dealing with the long trip back.
While it might lead to a slow start, the Vikings have too much firepower to slow down and should find a way to run away with the game in the second half.
Back Minnesota to Cover -7 @ $1.90
Now for the easiest bet of the week to make, lost amongst the headlines surrounding his personal life, Tom Brady is trying to avoid the first three game losing streak since the 2002 season.
It helps that he is set to take on one of the teams he has enjoyed plenty of success about with the Atlanta Falcons, going 10-0 against them in his career.
Since moving to Tampa, he has won all four games with the Buccaneers and the last three games have been by double digit margins.
Prepare yourself for a classic Brady ‘get-right’ game as the Buccaneers go off.
Back Tampa Bay by 14+ @ $2.40
Detroit is guaranteed box office viewing at the moment with their games averaging 70 points, although they would be kicking themselves that their record is a miserly 1-3.
New England has not been anywhere near as explosive but did occasionally show signs of life and they could be getting Mac Jones back.
Whoever starts at quarterback will have the benefit of a productive running game to lean on and the Lions have been porous in the air and on the ground so however they decide to attack them, they should experience some success.
They will need points but I am happy to back Bill Belichick to find a way to create enough pressure on the Lions to make enough stops.
SGM: New England to Win and Over 45.5 Points @ $3.06
Brace yourself, Jacksonville is a good team.
Despite losing to the Eagles last week, the Jaguars have shown they are not the basket case they were last year under Urban Meyer.
Houston on the other hand is still a mess from top to bottom.
Whatever talent they do have just doesn’t seem to be able to offset the major holes they have across the roster.
This is an easy bet.
Back Jacksonville to Cover -7 @ $1.90
If both teams were at full strength, this is arguably the biggest non-primetime game of the week.
However the Chargers look like they might have been able to get things going last week against the Texans and the Browns are good enough to keep themselves in games but can’t seem to put teams away.
Both teams have the firepower to put up points and with both teams not being as good as advertised defensively, the over is definitely in play since the number is below 50.
Even on the road, I’ll back the Chargers to get the job done and come away with the win for a nice double play.
Back LA Chargers to Cover -2.5 & Over 47.5 @ $3.75
Miami will take to the field with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback after their much publicised mismanagement of Tua Tagovailoa and his injury between the Bills and Bengals game.
The guys on the team will be glad to return to game action and get their focus back on the field of play with this clash against a feisty Jets team.
Zach Wilson’s return sparked the Jets into life for a hard fought victory in Pittsburgh that will have only boosted the young signal callers already plentiful confidence.
Bridgewater is a more than capable quarterback however and he has the nous to keep the Dolphins in this game by getting the ball into the hands of the many playmakers at his disposal.
It’s weird to think that the Jets are not an automatic “back against” team but after last week they have given enough evidence to think twice about it.
Both teams have plenty of offensive firepower so look for plenty of points to be scored.
Back Over 46 Points @ $1.90
Buffalo is going to win this game, Pittsburgh is going to struggle to score points, it’s just a question of what version of the Bills show up.
After lighting up the scoreboard in the first two weeks, points have been a bit tougher to come by against the Dolphins and Ravens thanks to a number of ill timed mistakes.
The Steelers have been competitive in all of their games but without TJ Watt, their defence just lacks the true gamebreaker.
I can’t see them keeping pace with Buffalo but the Bills might not make this the blowout the -14 line is suggesting it will be.
SGM: Buffalo HT/FT and Under 46.5 Points @ $2.61
Without a doubt the tagline for this game should be, “how much does either team have left in the tank?”
New Orleans lost a heartbreaker in London last week while Seattle went up and down the field against Detroit which might have more than a few players feeling a bit flat.
Saints rookie Chris Olave had his breakout performance and will be well positioned to back it up against a struggling Seahawks secondary.
As one of the few definitely healthy options for whoever is playing quarterback for the Saints, he should see plenty of targets and I’ll back him to find the end zone.
Back Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Tennessee was one of the value upsets of Week 4 and they look like they are getting short changed once again.
Only slightly favoured over a struggling Washington team, Tennessee might just be hitting their stride after an uneven start as Derrick Henry gets going.
Washington gave up 142 yards on the ground to Dallas last week and Henry is the toughest assignment for any defence in the NFL.
Take Tennessee to do it comfortably.
Back Tennessee to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
This is another pretty clear mismatch between two teams that do not belong in the same league.
Carolina is heading for the foot of the NFL ladder and the 49ers are coming off a huge win at home against the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Admittedly the short turnaround and cross country flight is a bit of a red flag for San Francisco but when you consider they still have Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa to break a game open, it’s tough to see Carolina getting anywhere close to the visitors.
Back San Francisco to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
While this is getting pitched as a marquee matchup in name, it is going to be a proper defensive battle with points at a premium.
Dallas is doing a remarkable job with Cooper Rush running the show, while LA is struggling to execute at the level they did during their Super Bowl run.
On the plus side, we get to see two of the best defensive players in the game in Aaron Donald and Micah Parsons who can wreck just about any offence.
Expect plenty of punts and plenty of tackles in the backfield as this becomes a race to 17 points.
Back Under 43 Points @ $1.90
There’s no need to qualify it anymore, Philadelphia is a damn good team and should be treated as such.
Their unbeaten run will come to an end at some stage but I’m not expecting it to be this weekend when they visit Arizona (perhaps with an eye on a return trip to this stadium in February).
Arizona can produce plenty of chaos week in, week out but the Eagles seem to thrive when things go off script and if this turns into a shootout, they will have no dramas bettering the Cardinals output.
Take the Eagles and the over here as both teams could easily put up 30 points.
Back Philadelphia to Cover -5.5 and Over 49.5 Points @ $4.00
It might be a bit blasphemous to suggest that this hard-nosed AFC North battle will turn into a shootout between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league, but all signs are pointing towards that.
Baltimore is guided by Lamar Jackson and will be desperate to overcome a disappointing ending to last week’s game against Buffalo.
Cincinnati got things going with a much needed win over Miami last week and will have 10 days rest to prepare for the vulnerable Ravens secondary.
There is a real solid case to be made for both teams to win and there is value if you feel confident backing the Bengals but I’ve got a SGM in mind instead.
With both offences set to go off, look for the over and a pair of favourite targets to find the end zone.
SGM: Over 48.5 Points, Ja’Marr Chase and Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorers @ $7.08
After lighting up the best defence in the league last week, Patrick Mahomes now turns his attention to a Raiders side that he has had no problems moving the ball against.
In his career he has gone 7-1 and has scored at least 28 points in every start.
Last year the Chiefs won both games by a combined score of 89-23 and it looks like this one is heading for a similar outcome.
Vegas has failed to fire this season and look like they are still a way off where they want to be.
If you have other things to do on Tuesday you might be able to get away with only watching the first quarter.
Back Kansas City to Cover -7.5 and Over 51.5 @ $4.00
2021
We’re off to London in Week 5 of the NFL season with the Falcons and Jets set to face off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
It’s not before a fascinating clash between Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams gets this underway this Friday, however.
While Monday’s headline game between the Bills and Chiefs is not quite as hyped as last week’s, it promises to be a high quality contest with two of the league’s best young quarterbacks on display.
We’ve got our previews and best bets for all 16 games below so read on and see who we are backing!
Thursday Night Football has seen plenty of dud divisional matchups on paper but this NFC West battle is shaping up as an excellent contest.
After suffering their first loss of the season, the LA Rams will head to Seattle, who picked up a potentially season saving win in San Francisco.
Coming almost nine months to the day since the Rams last win in Seattle, it’s fair to say that this is a much better roster than they fielded that day.
Matthew Stafford should be able to throw all over a Seahawks secondary and his favourite target Cooper Kupp could be in for a big day as well.
They will need to roll for four quarters however given their vaunted defence has not forced a turnover in two games.
If they are unable to contain Russell Wilson, we could be in for a very entertaining shootout.
I’ll back the Rams to go to 4-1, they are too good to lose back to back games and for some added value throw in a touchdown scorer.
Kupp has managed five touchdowns on the season so far and Seattle has a very porous pass defence so he is a worthwhile value add.
SGM: LA Rams to Win and Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.53
For just a brief period last week, the Jets looked like a competitive NFL team, they scored their first touchdown since Week 1 and beat the Titans.
It’s no reason to back them, even against a Falcons side that has really struggled out of the gate but still has plenty of firepower when they get going.
That is not a great sign for the Jets defence, they struggled to slow down the Titans, especially Derrick Henry and it’s hard to see them being able to keep Atlanta in check.
Too much is being asked of Zach Wilson and anytime you can get the Jets opponent at -3, you have to take that number.
Back Atlanta to Cover -3 @ $1.90
Denver should win this game, so provided they can field something close to their best available team.
Teddy Bridgewater is the biggest question mark having picked up a concussion against the Ravens last week and it is looking like he will be as close to a gametime decision as possible.
Should he be unable to go, this game suddenly becomes much more of a toss up as Lock just doesn’t have the composure of Bridgewater.
That being said, whomever starts at quarterback should only have to make one or two plays with the Steelers in all sorts.
With Ben Roethlisberger still struggling but insisting on playing, the Steelers can not produce 20 points without some sort of major mistake from their opponent.
The possibility of Lock playing does make this a bit of a nervous play but I am happy to back against Pittsburgh.
Back Denver to Win @ $1.94
Minnesota remains one of the biggest question marks of the 2021 NFL season.
On paper this is a team that should be 3-1 instead of 1-3, but they just don’t seem to be able to put it all together.
It makes betting on the Vikings a very scary proposition but it remains far less terrifying than backing the 0-4 Lions.
Detroit has been in all four of its games to varying degrees but just is not good enough to get the job done.
Minnesota is not good enough to blow them out so the best option is to take the Vikings to win a close one.
It does not offer the insurance of a Lions upset like backing them at the line does but it also stops you having to rely on Dan Campbell to get the job done.
Back Minnesota to Win by 1-13 @ $2.40
A well rested Cincinnati side will take on a Packers team that is chasing its fourth straight win.
Not only have the Packers won their last three but they have also covered lines of -10.5 over Detroit, +3.5 in San Francisco and -6.5 over Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have gone 11-6 against the spread on the road since Matt LaFleur took over before the 2019 season and they should be able to see off a plucky Bengals team.
It could be a big day for both offences so don’t be surprised if there’s a lot of points put on the board.
There is every chance the Packers will get to 30 points but I don’t trust their defence without Jaire Alexander so the Bengals should find a way into the 20’s.
Back Green Bay -3.5 and Over 51.5 Points @ $3.80
If Miami turns up ready to play, they are a real chance at pulling off an upset over Tampa Bay.
Coming off a draining game in New England, the Buccaneers will happily return home here but there has to be a certain level of trepidation over facing a Brian Flores defence.
The Belichick disciple gave Brady fits last time those two minds faced off holding him to 221 yards and just over 55% completion rate.
Even if the Dolphins do harass, harangue and hurry Brady on defence, unfortunately their offence just does not look capable of taking advantage of an undermanned Buccaneers secondary.
Tampa’s pass rush should be able to get after Brissett who has taken nine sacks just under three games and that will keep the Dolphins offence in check.
The 10 point line looks about right for the disparity between these teams so I’ll pair up Tampa Bay to get the outright win and Chris Godwin to bounce back from a quiet night with a touchdown.
SGM: Tampa Bay to Win and Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer
It has been a long week for New England and you have to wonder how much they will have in the tank for this game against Houston.
On the plus side they would have been able to take plenty of confidence from their close loss to Tampa Bay but there is a lot working against them.
There will undoubtedly be some frustration over the manner in which they lost, plus they have had a pair of offensive linemen go on the league’s Covid list and to top it all off, they traded their (injured) best player to Carolina.
New England’s offence has been horribly inefficient in the red zone, settling for too many field goals which keeps a Houston cover on the table.
Let’s call this game for what it is, an uninspiring contest between two teams that don’t seem destined to feature beyond Week 18.
If the Patriots offensive line gets its players back, then look at taking Damien Harris to score a touchdown but in their current state, this is a stay away.
NO BET
After a surprise loss at home to the Giants, New Orleans will head up to Washington looking to avoid dropping below .500 before their bye.
Sean Payton has gone 11-3 after a loss over the last four years and will have his team well placed for this game.
Washington’s allegedly fearsome defence has struggled in a big way to start the season, failing to record a turnover in their last three games and giving up 103 points over the last three games.
He will be able to scheme up some creative looks to get the ball in the hands of Alvin Kamara and Washington will be unable to keep up with them.
This market is showing far too much respect to Washington and for that reason, I’ll take the head to head price on offer on New Orleans.
Back New Orleans to Win @ $1.77
Carolina’s run defence was caught out in a big way against Dallas last weekend, but you have to wonder if Philadelphia has the personnel to go after them in the same way.
Dallas’s 245 total yards on the ground paved the way for Dak Prescott to have an easy afternoon and throw four touchdowns on just 22 pass attempts.
Philadelphia will be hoping that Carolina’s first defeat of the season covers up their porous run defence that gave up 200 yards on the ground to the Chiefs last week.
This will be a battle of the backs and if the Panthers can get Christian McCaffrey back from the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 3, it is a huge advantage for Carolina.
If not this game becomes something much closer to a toss up however you still have to give the edge to the Panthers who have a much more well rounded roster than the Eagles.
On a good day, the Eagles can be competitive, on a bad day they are horrendous.
Carolina’s floor appears to be a competitive team and they are just a better side so I’ll take them to cover the very small line.
Back Carolina to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
If any team has had a week from hell, it is the Jaguars, specifically head coach Urban Meyer who has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons following their loss in Cincinnati last week.
It has not been all sunshine and roses for the Titans either after a horrendous effort saw them lose to the Jets in New Jersey.
For this game, the question comes down to which team do you trust to respond better?
It’s a no brainer, Tennessee has won seven of its last eight against Jacksonville and has Derrick Henry at its disposal to offset the injured receiver duo of AJ Brown and Julio Jones.
Should one or both of them be cleared to play, it swings this game further in favour of the Titans.
SGM: Titans to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
You can’t sugar coat it, the Raiders were dreadful against the Chargers last week but they have a perfect bounce back opportunity against the Bears.
It was far and away their worst offensive output of the season and they were not helped by a defence that is set to be put under a lot of pressure by the Bears this week, especially on the ground.
For the third straight game, the Bears running game outgained its passing game despite losing David Montgomery to a serious knee injury.
With rookie Justin Fields still chasing his first career touchdown pass, Chicago will try and run their way to victory with Damien Williams who is set to shoulder the load.
I will likely put the Raiders to win in a multi of some sort but I don’t trust them at the line, especially if they can’t stop the Bears ground game.
Instead I’ll back Williams to find the end zone in his first start of the year.
Back Damien Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
While most would claim the Chiefs-Bills game is the biggest contest of the weekend, this one is a close run second or third.
Cleveland is riding its defence at the moment after a pair of dominating performances holding Chicago and Minnesota to a combined 13 points.
Los Angeles will manage at least 13 points in this game with Justin Herbert directing the offence with aplomb in their wins over Las Vegas and Kansas City.
This game is a proper toss up that could go either way.
Instead of taking a side, go for a touchdown scorer same game multi taking the running backs to get the job done.
SGM: Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown Scorers @ $2.98
It’s an NFC East matchup that fans (allegedly) just can’t get enough of as the Cowboys and Giants face off in a feature game again.
The opening kickoff will likely be as close as this game will get as this is a major mismatch between two teams going in very different directions.
New York might have found a path to victory in New Orleans as their offence found a bit of a groove and they should be able to move the ball on this Dallas defence.
Dallas should be able to force a turnover or two and keep the Giants at arms length to make it four wins in a row.
Back Dallas to Cover -7.5 & Over 52.5 Points @ $3.75
The NFL’s last undefeated team, the Arizona Cardinals, returns home with the NFL’s most explosive offence and a defence that ranks in the top 10 in points allowed.
That ranking could improve against a 49ers team that will likely turn to rookie Trey Lance with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a calf injury.
Lance flashed against Seattle last week throwing two touchdowns but was put under plenty of pressure and the Cardinals pass rush will be looking to tee off on him here.
Kyle Shanahan will have to scheme around what should be some pretty heavy pressure and hope that his depleted running back group can get the job done.
Hope is all well and good but the performances speak for themselves and I’ll back the Cardinals to put together another impressive win.
Back Arizona to Cover -5.5 @ $1.90
Is this the game the Chiefs need to emerge from their early season slumber?
Even after putting 42 points on the Eagles last week, it still feels like they are barely out of second gear.
Perhaps facing off with the team they defeated in last season’s AFC Championship, in primetime with all of the eyes on them will see them put together a complete performance.
Even with their “struggles” they have still averaged 33.5 points per game and should be able to march up and down the field on the Bills defence.
Buffalo has pitched a pair of shutouts already this season but they have not faced anything like Kansas City to date.
The Chiefs have earned the benefit of the doubt and at home, in primetime, they should take care of business to move to 3-2.
Back Kansas City to Cover -3 @ $1.98
It’s the Baltimore derby on Monday Night Football with the Colts returning to the city they called home from 1953 through 1983 before moving to Indianapolis in the middle of the night.
Those rusted on fans still hold a grudge towards the Colts and they should see their team put them to the sword.
Indianapolis just doesn’t have the capacity to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens running game.
I’ll back the home team to come away with a comfortable win and Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown as he escapes around the corner.
SGM: Baltimore to Cover -7 and Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown @ $2.75
2020
Six teams remain undefeated heading into Week 5 as the Bills, Steelers, Titans, Chiefs and Seahawks all hope to improve on their winning records.
Fourteen teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl after starting the year 5-0, while on the opposite end, no team has made the playoffs following an 0-5 start, making this a crucial week for the Jets, Texans, Giants and Falcons.
With the Packers and Lions both on the bye, we’ve previewed all 15 games in our 2020 NFL Week 5 Preview below!
Nick Foles and Tom Brady will square off for the first time since Super Bowl LII on Friday as both the Bears and the Bucs hope to improve to 4-1.
Chicago suffered its first loss last week against the Colts as the offence failed to move the ball against Indianapolis’ fierce defensive line.
The Bucs, on the other hand, went toe-to-toe against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, only for Brady to come out on top with a casual five touchdown day.
Tampa Bay and Chicago haven’t met since 2018, but that hasn’t stopped our bookies from favouring the Bucs by -4.5.
Bruce Arians’ offence ranks eighth in the league in points scored this year, but the defence did show some real signs for concern last week giving up close to 300 yards and three touchdowns to a rookie quarterback.
On the flip side, it’s hard to see the Bears matching the Bucs on the scoreboard.
Foles appeared completely out of sync with his receivers last week, so if Chicago are to win, it’s likely going to come down to the defence carrying them most of the way.
The Bears have actually allowed the eighth-fewest points in the league, so there’s a good chance we Chicago’s defence at least keep them in the game.
This is by far Tampa’s biggest test against a top ranked defence, so the Under looks a worthwhile play.
Tip: Bucs Under 24 Points @ $1.91
The Texans kick off a new era under interim coach Romeo Crennel as they prepare for an AFC South showdown against the 1-3 Jaguars on Monday.
For the third time in franchise history the Texans have started the season 0-4 after losing a nail-biter to the Vikings last week.
The result ultimately cost head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien his job, a move many fans saw coming following the questionable trade of DeAndre Hopkins during the offseason.
Crennel, Houston’s long-time defensive coordinator and assistant coach, will now take over the recovery project.
Despite the sudden turn of events, the Texans still find themselves as the odds-on favourites this week when they attempt to defeat the Jags for the fifth game in a row.
Jacksonville currently ranks inside the top ten in points allowed and inside the bottom ten in points scored, so this does look a very realistic opportunity for the Texans to get their first win on the board.
That said, the Jags have proven themselves a handful on the ground, while they’ve also flown under the radar through the air ranking 10th in passing yards.
Often a coaching change can spur a team in a new direction, but it’s difficult to get excited about the Texans with so much turmoil going on off the field.
With a very generous +6 on offer, there’s lots to like about the Jags here if they can run it down Houston’s throat.
Tip: Back the Jaguars to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.90
The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week against the Jags, but this week’s game shapes up as an entirely different test against one of the AFC’s elite.
Joe Burrow enjoyed a game to remember against Jacksonville throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown, while Joe Mixon did his part reeling in three touchdowns from scrimmage.
Those numbers are certainly encouraging from a general standpoint, but it would likely take a repeat performance if Cincy are to knock off the 3-1 Ravens.
Baltimore got back to their old ways last week in a 31-17 victory over Washington following a harsh reality check against the Chiefs a week earlier.
Offensively, it was far from a masterclass from Baltimore, but the defence still managed to assert its dominance forcing a turnover and recording three sacks.
Cincinnati’s offensive line has allowed the second-most sacks in the league at this point, so it’s hard to see the Bengals coping with Don Martindale’s blitz-happy defence.
Tip: Bengals Under 19 Points @ $1.85
The Rams can sweep the NFC East this week with a final win over Washington on Monday.
It wasn’t exactly pretty, but Jared Goff managed to get his team over the line against the Giants last week with a late touchdown to Cooper Kupp before the defence stepped in to shutdown Daniel Jones.
Washington fell to 1-3 with a loss to the Ravens, but there were a few positives to take away from the game.
Dwayne Haskins enjoyed a huge 300-yard day, while the defence also did well to hold Lamar Jackson to less than 250 yards from scrimmage.
Unfortunately, Haskins’ hard work has all been for naught as Washington continues to struggle for points on the scoreboard.
Ron Rivera’s side ranks third-last in points scored this year, spelling potential disaster against a Rams team that has allowed the seventh-fewest points on the defensive end.
Washington has now lost each of its last three games by double digits, so the -9.5 about Los Angeles seems just about right.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Chiefs can improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2018 on Monday with a win over the 2-2 Raiders at Arrowhead.
Head coach Andy Reid will likely be hoping for a more thorough performance from his team this week after surviving a bit of a scare against the half-strength Patriots last Tuesday.
After mauling the Ravens a week earlier, the offence really struggled to get moving in the first half as the Chiefs took a narrow 6-3 into the half-time break.
Patrick Mahomes eventually found his mojo in the second half, but if it wasn’t for a couple of turnovers from the defence, the score probably would have turned out a little closer.
The Raiders, meanwhile, put in a strong effort against the undefeated Buffalo Bills, but it’s still hard to fancy Vegas in this spot.
The Raiders fumbled twice last week against the Bills and there is a good chance we see Vegas struggle again with turnovers against Kansas City’s elite edge rushers.
Last week’s game may have just been the kick and the butt the Chiefs need, and with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games against Vegas, they should be feeling pretty good about themselves.
Tip: Back the Chiefs to Cover the Line (-13 Points) @ $1.90
The Steelers will be hoping to remain undefeated when they take on the Eagles in the first Pennsylvania showdown since 2016 on Monday.
Fresh from an unexpected week off, Pittsburgh clearly has an edge in betting as the bookies fancy Ben Roethlisberger and company as -7 favourites against a 1-2-1 Philadelphia side.
The Steelers so far own wins over the Giants, Broncos and Texans, and although the Eagles did well to earn their first win of the season last week against the 49ers, it’s still tough to see Carson Wentz scoring enough points against this elite Pittsburgh defense.
While the Steelers have played one less game than everyone else, the stats still don’t lie.
Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest first downs to opponents and the second-fewest points – a troubling sign for an Eagles team that only barely scraped home against a half-strength Niners team.
The Steelers are also 3-1 following a bye since 2017, so with the jury still out on Wentz, this one might get ugly.
Tip: Back the Steelers to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $1.91
The Panthers can improve to above .500 this week with a victory over the winless Falcons in Atlanta.
Carolina’s turnaround has been impressive to say the least as the Panthers have now rattled off two convincing wins over the Chargers and Cardinals in succession.
The Panthers’ ground game has quite easily been one of the most impressive parts of their offence, which almost comes as a surprise following Christian McCaffrey’s injury back in Week 2.
Mike Davis and Reggie Bonnafon have carried the load quite nicely in McCaffrey’s absence and it appears they might be in for another big day at the office against a Falcons team that just gave up 71 yards to Aaron Jones a week ago.
With all of that in mind, the Falcons still find themselves as the favourites in the market to snap their losing streak.
Atlanta had their moments against Green Bay last week, and if it wasn’t for a costly Calvin Ridley drop in the end zone, they may have kept the game at least a little closer.
The Falcons have also won eight of their last 10 games against Carolina, so they shouldn’t be short on confidence.
Unfortunately, all signs point towards Julio Jones missing this game, so it’s still hard to get on board the Falcons outright.
Based on the way the Falcons have blown leads twice already this season, we might be heading for a similar heart-breaking scenario on Monday.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Falcons/Panthers @ $6.90
The Jets have enjoyed an extra few days off to reflect on what could have been their first win of the season last week against the Broncos.
Adam Gase’s had an array of chances to put Denver to bed in the late stages, only for Sam Darnold to take a last-second sack to end the game on fourth down.
There’s obviously been very little to like about New York on both sides of the ball this season, and as the odds suggest, it’s difficult to see them matching a fast-scoring Arizona team for four quarters.
The Cardinals have now suffered back-to-back losses to Detroit and Carolina, so they should see this game as a real opportunity to get back on track.
More specifically, this is also a great opportunity for Kyler Murray to forget about his rocky start to the season that has featured five interceptions in just four games.
The Jets currently rank third in points allowed, so there’s really no excuses for Arizona in this spot.
Tip: Cardinals Over 27 Total Points @ $1.87
The 49ers and the Dolphins were both on the receiving end of narrow losses last week as both sides hope to bounce-back in Week 5.
Miami hung tight with Seattle for the better part of four quarters before Russell Wilson put the game to bed in the fourth quarter with a lovely throw to David Moore.
Likewise, San Francisco went toe-to-toe with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, right before Nick Mullens threw the game away with a pick six late in the fourth quarter.
These two side aren’t very familiar with one another having last played in 2016, but you do have to like the Dolphins to earn their second win of the season against a banged up 49er team.
It’s likely we see San Francisco run the ball early and often to limit the chances of a Mullens turnover, but that still mightn’t be enough to stop Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a tendency to turn the ball over himself, but also pile on the points.
Out of all the markets, this one seems to be the strangest this week.
There really isn’t as much separating these two sides as the -9 line suggests, so with some value on offer, take Miami with some insurance.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+9 Points) @ $1.91
**Rescheduled to a later date**
One of the top betting plays is in action this week when the Patriots take on the Broncos in Foxboro.
Despite putting a real scare into the reigning Super Bowl champs last week, New England ultimately fell 26-10 to the Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes chose to dial things up a notch in the fourth quarter.
From a betting perspective, this is good news for punters considering the Patriots are 4-2 at the line in their last six games following a loss.
Like a few other games this week, the market is a little tricky due to Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test, but it appears the Patriots should play as double-digit favourites.
There obviously wasn’t a lot to like about Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham as the pair combined for three picks last week, but the Patriots should find life a little easier through the air on Monday against a Broncos defence that has forced only two turnovers all year.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover the Line
A potential playoff preview could be in order this week when the 3-1 Browns host the 3-1 Colts in Cleveland on Monday.
These two sides were easily among the standouts to emerge from Week 4 as the Browns’ turned in one of their best offensive performances against the Cowboys, while the Colts’ defence completely shut the door on the Bears.
Defensively, the Colts look to be the top team in the league and they certainly have the stats to back it up.
Indianapolis has allowed the fewest points in the league at this point and have also proven to be almost impossible to run against with an intimidating front line that has allowed the fourth-fewest yards on the ground.
On the flip side, the Browns almost looked like an entirely different team last week.
Cleveland dialed up a ton of motion and play action to catch the Cowboys off guard, while star receiver Odell Beckham Jr also seems to have rediscovered his old self scoring twice from scrimmage.
The Browns are no doubt much-improved compared to last year, but it’s tough to ignore how much they struggled against Baltimore’s defence in Week 1.
This is arguably an even tougher test against the top defensive line in the league, and with no Nick Chubb to rely on, you have to like the Colts’ defence to do the talking.
Tip: Browns Under 22 Points @ $1.92
The entire NFC East has been tough to watch this season as we prepare for another less-than exciting divisional game between the Cowboys and Giants.
Even at 1-3, it still feels as though the division is Dallas’ to lose.
The Cowboys defence looks a shell of its former self after giving up 49 points to the Browns last week, but offensively, it’s worth nothing Mike McCarthy’s side ranks top five in points scored and passing yards.
Dak Prescott is firmly in the MVP discussion following a huge 500-yard game last week, a performance he can easily replicate against a Giants defence that is yet to face anything close to Dallas’ talented receiving core.
To their credit, the Giants did hang tight with the Rams last week before some costly Daniel Jones mistakes got in the way.
There’s every chance we see the Giants put up some points on the Cowboys’ dazed and confused secondary, but with six straight wins over New York dating back to 2017, Dallas should get it done.
Tip: Back the Cowboys 1-13 @ $2.25
**Rescheduled to a later date**
The Seahawks are hoping to get off to their first 5-0 start in franchise history with a win over the Vikings at the Link.
These two sides have played out some classics in recent years, the most recent of which was a 37-30 Seahawks victory last year over the Vikings in Week 9.
Minnesota hasn’t won in Seattle since 2006, so it’s no real surprise to find the Vikings at -7 in the market.
The Vikings struggled to put away a miserable Texans team last week for their first win of the season, a form line that doesn’t really bode well against what is arguably the best team in the NFC.
On the flip side, the Seahawks had their hands full down in Miami against the Dolphins, but that might have just been the reality check Seattle needed to refocus and shift back into gear.
Russell Wilson is playing out of his skin right now, and with the Vikings struggling mightily against the run, this shapes up as one of the safest bets of the week.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $1.90
The Saints find themselves on the primetime stage for another week in what is shaping up to be a bit of a line in the sand game against the Chargers.
Now at 2-2, the Saints find themselves with some work to do behind the division leading Bucs as they attempt to get their season back on track amidst COVID-19 concerns.
New Orleans did just enough last week to survive a scare against the Lions, but it appears they’ll have their hands full again with the frisky Chargers in town.
Despite their 1-3 record, Los Angeles has proven themselves a tough out this season ever since Justin Herbert stepped in under centre to replace Tyrod Taylor.
The rookie quarterback showed plenty of poise last week in the 38-31 loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs, and he might just put up some big numbers again on Tuesday.
The Saints have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns this year, while they’ve also allowed teams to score a touchdown on 82% of their possessions in the red zone – the highest percentage in the league.
Los Angeles ranks middle of the pack in red zone touchdowns offensively this year, so there’s a bit to like about the Chargers at least keeping this game close.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line
The undefeated Titans and Bills will meet in Tennessee this week in what is shaping up to be one of the games of the year.
Buffalo has firmly stamped itself as a serious playoff contender following another impressive win over the Raiders last week.
Josh Allen has firmly asserted himself in the MVP discussion with four outstanding games, while it’s safe to say the trade for Stefon Diggs can already be called one of the top acquisitions in franchise history.
The market ahead of this game is a little tough to get a read on following Tennessee’s COVID scare last week.
At time of publish, it appears the Bills will go around as -8.5 favourites, which does seem a little long against a Titans defence that has had a week off to prepare.
The Bills defeated the Titans 14-7 when these two side met in Week 5 last year, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we get a similar low-scoring result on Monday.
Buffalo’s defence has been outstanding against the rush this year and is more than capable of stopping Derrick Henry in his tracks.
Tennessee, on the other hand, has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards despite playing one less game than the rest of the league.
By combining those two stats, this one could turn into a bit of a stalemate.
Tip: Under the Total
2019
We’re now a quarter of the way through the regular NFL season as the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers remain undefeated in the standings.
The Lions and Dolphins each take a well-deserved seat this week, while the Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Jets and Redskins will be hoping to get their first win on the board.
Undefeated teams heading into Week 5 have gone on to make the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, while only one team – the 1992 Chargers – have made the playoffs after starting 0-4.
This is a crucial weekend for each and every team, and it’s also a big week for punters. Here’s a look at all 15 games:
The NFC West received a bit of a shakeup last week as the Seahawks and Rams traded places.
Seattle’s 27-10 win over Arizona saw Pete Carroll’s side improve to 3-1 on the season, while the Rams shock loss at home to Tampa Bay saw them slip to third in the division on percentage.
On the heels of last weeks thrilling Thursday Night Football game, we should be in for another close one on Friday with both sides looking to distance themselves from one each other.
For the Seahawks, last weeks victory was made even more impressive thanks to Chris Carson. Seattle’s groundwork lacked life in the opening three weeks of the season, and with Russell Wilson continuing to cop a beating in the pocket, it was encouraging to watch a Seahawks running back rush for over 100-yards.
Things weren’t quite as peachy for Los Angeles last week, though. The Rams have plenty to ponder on both sides of the ball after Jared Goff threw for three interceptions. Los Angeles also committed 13 penalties and allowed the Bucs to put up 24-points in the fourth quarter.
The Rams have won seven of their last 10-games over the Seahawks and are also 12-2 straight-up in their last 14 games on the road. That said, it’s difficult to ignore the obvious red flags in Los Angeles that continue to pop up each week.
Seattle are a tough side to face at the Link, and although the Rams got the better of the Seahawks on the road last year, Caroll’s defence should do the talking in this one.
The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-fewest third down conversions as well as the seventh-fewest rushing yards, so back Seattle to win in a low-scoring game.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Win @ $1.80
The Danny Dimes era is well underway in the Big Apple as the Giants have quietly strung together two wins in a row.
Big Blue made short work of the Redskins last week at home largely thanks to the efforts of the defence. The Giants held Washington to only 176 total yards and also forced four turnovers in the 24-3 win, making up for Daniel Jones’ two interceptions.
Jones, a first-round draft pick, has been one of this season’s biggest surprises ever since taking over from Eli Manning in Week 3. The 22-year-old will have his work cut out this week though as he prepares to face a volatile Vikings defence.
Minnesota has been one of the best sides in the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing only 377-yards and one touchdown. That spells bad news for the Giants with Saquon Barkley’s status still up in the air, meaning Jones will be forced into throwing more than he’d like.
Speaking of passing, the Vikings have some problems on offence themselves. Kirk Cousins managed to avoid throwing an interception during last week’s loss to the Bears, but the $84 million man was still sacked six times for 233-yards and zero touchdowns.
The leadup to Monday’s game has featured some not-so subtle complaints from wide receiver Adam Thielen, who publicly aired his frustrations by criticizing Mike Zimmer’s love affair for running the football.
Let it be known that New York’s defence is far from good, but the Giants have been okay against the run so far. With home-field advantage and off-field distractions mounting in Minnesota, this one isn’t beyond the Giants.
Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.91
Back-to-back wins has these two teams feeling pretty good about themselves with fresh new faces under center.
For the Jags, Gardner Minshew mania continued last week as Jacksonville clawed their way back from a 17-6 halftime deficit to defeat the Broncos 26-24 at Mile High.
Carolina, meanwhile, continues to reap the rewards from Kyle Allen, who led the Panthers to a very impressive victory over the Texans on the road last week.
The Jaguars and Panthers have met only six times since 1996, with their most recent meeting coming back in 2015. Inter-conference games are always tough to pick, especially with both sides having split their previous six games three wins apiece.
Carolina’s offence continues to find new ways to put up numbers with Cam Newton still on the sidelines. Allen, who was sacked four times last week and gave away three fumbles, didn’t have a good game by any stretch of the imagination, but the Panthers are always a big threat with Christian McCaffrey in the back field.
Eric Washington’s defence has also been sneaky good this year allowing the second-fewest yards through the air. Since this is also Minshew’s second straight game on the road, the Panthers get the nod in a close one.
Tip: Back the Panthers 1-13
One of these sides is looking destined for a spot in the Super Bowl. And the other, well let’s just say the Redskins look a shoo-in for a top three draft pick.
New England survived a scare last week against the Bills winning 16-10, but we certainly learned a lot about the Patriots in the process.
Considering Buffalo turned the ball over four times, you’d expect a little more than just two touchdowns in the first quarter from New England’s offence. Much of the Patriots’ inconsistencies boiled down to a shoddy performance from the offensive line – one that saw Tom Brady throw for only 150-yards, zero touchdowns and an interception.
Fortunately, the Patriots will have a chance to right their wrongs this week as they travel to Washington. The Redskins are 0-4 on the heels of last weeks 24-3 loss to the Giants, leaving Jay Gruden’s side as heavy two touchdown underdogs.
With Case Keenum in a walking boot, we should see Colt McCoy under center on Monday. McCoy has made only 27 starts in his eight-year NFL career, throwing for 5,958 yards, 29 touchdowns, and most concerningly, 26 interceptions.
Washington’s offensive line is a serious concern, so much so that the team won’t risk first round draft pick Dwayne Haskins anytime soon. With Vernon Davis also in the concussion protocol, this spells nothing more than a good Overs bet.
Tip: Over 9 First Quarter Points @ $1.92
These two sides find themselves at complete opposite ends of the spectrum (and the standings) as they head into Week 5.
Philadelphia got its season back on track last week with an impressive 34-27 win over the Packers at Lambeau. The Eagles were particularly impressive on the ground as Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders combined for over 150-yards, while the defence performed exceptionally well to limit the Packers on the ground.
The Jets head into Monday’s game fresh from the bye with plenty of ground to make up in the AFC East. Still without a win, New York appears nothing more than cannon fodder at least until Sam Darnold returns under center.
It’s been a while in between drinks since the Eagles and Jets last met. These two sides haven’t squared off since 2015, a game the Eagles won 24-17 at Metlife.
Things could turn out to be equally as close this time around, but it’s still difficult to fade the Eagles in the market. Philly won’t need to overcomplicate things against a Jets defence that has allowed four touchdowns in three games, so look for the Eagles to win this one comfortably.
Tip: Back the Eagles to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90
This NFC South rivalry game became a little more interesting last week as the Bucs pulled off a huge upset on the road over the Rams.
Tampa Bay wasn’t afraid to throw the ball against Los Angeles in their 55-40 win, and it resulted in a monster 385-yard, four touchdown game from Jameis Winston.
The Saints had their hands full last week with the Cowboys at home, but Teddy Bridgewater once again led New Orleans to their second straight victory. Sean Payton’s side was enormous defensively forcing the Cowboys into three turnovers and at the same time, limiting Ezekiel Elliott to just 35-yards.
Bruce Arians will have spent his week coming up with a plan to combat Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, but it might be as simple as trusting his defence.
To many people’s surprise, the Bucs have allowed the second-fewest running yards this season. On the flip side though, Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most passing yards.
The Saints have been much the same defensively, and despite last weeks efforts to stop Zeke, New Orleans has struggled to defend the ground game.
Tampa Bay has won two of their last three games against the Saints, while everyone will remember last years famous 48-40 victory in the Superdome over New Orleans in Week 1.
The Bucs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10-games against a division opponent, so if they can stick to running the ball and also limit the running lanes defensively, Tampa Bay can at least keep this close.
Tip: Back the Bucs to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $2.00
If you had the Raiders penciled in for 2-2 before Week 5, good for you.
Oakland pulled off the second biggest upset last week trumping the Colts 31-24 in Indianapolis. It was a big-time performance from running backs Josh Jacobs and Trevor Davis that did the trick, while the defence performed exceptionally well holding Marlon Mack to just 39-yards.
The Bears also improved to 3-1 with a 16-6 win over the Vikings. Chicago’s defence remains the best in the league, but the Bears now have a problem under center after Mitchell Trubisky suffered a shoulder injury.
Chase Daniel performed well in Trubisky’s absence last week completing 22 of his 30 pass attempts for 195-yards and a score. This week’s trip to Oakland is still a huge test for a guy with only four games worth of starting experience, though.
Like a handful of other matchups this week, the Raiders and the Bears haven’t met since 2015. Since this week’s game will be played on neutral turf in London however, anything goes.
Daniel will need to settle into this game early if he hopes to put points on the board, but you can bet Chicago’s defence does the talking in the end.
The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this year, which in turn, spells bad news for a Raiders team that has scored only three rushing touchdowns all year.
Chicago also ranks tied for third in defensive turnovers, and since this is Khalil Mack’s first game against his former team, there’s no doubt the Bears defence will look to leave its mark.
Tip: Back the Bears to Win & Under 40 Points @ $3.62
It might seem early to be considering the playoffs, but this game could go a long way to earning either the Bills or the Titans a spot in the Wild Card game.
Tennessee bounced back from a loss to the Jaguars in to comfortably defeat the Falcons last week. The Titans played a clean brand of football both on the ground and in the air as Marcus Mariota threw for three touchdowns alongside Derrick Henry’s 100-yard game.
Buffalo met their match against New England at home in Week 4 as the Bills’ unbeaten start to the season came to an end. Despite the result on the scoreboard, there was still lots to like about Buffalo defensively, even if quarterback Josh Allen looks likely to miss this game with a concussion.
Should Allen sit on the sidelines, the Bills will likely turn to Matt Barkley with one game remaining until the bye. Barkley has made only seven starts in his five-year NFL career to not-so spectacular results, passing for only 2,270-yards, 10 touchdowns and a whopping 19 interceptions.
With those stats in mind, it won’t come as a surprise to see the Bills run the ball early and often on Monday. Buffalo’s ground game put up 135-yards and a score on the Patriots last week, and now ranks third in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on the season.
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll also know the Titans are one of the leagues top teams defensively. The Titans have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all year, so if you haven’t cottoned on by now, it’s safe to say we could be headed for a low-scoring game.
The Total has gone Under in eight of Buffalo’s last nine games dating back to last season, as well as four of their last five games against a fellow AFC opponent. All things considered; points should be hard to come by in this one.
Tip: Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.91
These two sides managed only 10-points each last week as they now look to bounce-back.
Atlanta continued their downward spiral losing 24-10 to the Titans at home. Quarterback Matt Ryan wasn’t all to blame, but with 397-yards and zero touchdowns to his name, it’s safe to say the Falcons have some issues in the redzone.
The Texans offence also stalled at home to the Panthers. It was a quiet 160-yard day for Deshaun Watson in the air, while six sacks certainly didn’t help. Houston also finished just 4-from-11 on third down, highlighting how bad the offensive line has become.
These two sides last met in 2015, a game the Falcons won comfortably 48-21. This time around though, the Texans look good money as the home favourites.
Although Houston hardly looks a Super Bowl contender at 2-2, Bill O’Brien’s side still deserves a mulligan after last weeks horror show.
The Texans can rest a little easy this week knowing the Falcons defence continues to find new ways to fail. Atlanta ranks fourth in third down conversions allowed, and perhaps more importantly, fourth in redzone touchdowns allowed.
Houston normally saves its best football for October, owning a 5-1 record in their last six games, and since this is somewhat of a statement game, back the Texans to do just that.
Tip: Back the Texans 13+
It’s the battle between the beaten this week as the winless Bengals host the winless Cardinals.
Arizona managed only one touchdown last week in their 27-10 loss to the Seahawks, while the Bengals fared even worse on Monday Night Football mustering a lone field goal on the road against the Steelers.
These two sides have been extremely poor on defence this year, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Both sides rank Top 10 in rushing yards allowed, while both sides also rank Top 10 in passing touchdowns.
All signs now point towards the Overs, but it’s worth keeping in mind just how poor Cincinnati’s offensive line has been. Andy Dalton was sacked a career-high eight times last week in Pittsburgh, while the Bengals are also tied for first in offensive turnovers.
Arizona’s -41 points differential is worrying, but the offence hasn’t been quite as bad as it’s being made out to be. Quarterback Kyler Murray has completed the fourth-most passes in the league, and since the Cardinals often like to roll with four receiver sets, it’s worth backing Arizona to really challenge Cincinnati’s secondary vertically.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.85
This classic AFC North rivalry is always a treat each year, and although the Steelers and Ravens find themselves at opposite ends of the standings, we should be in for another thriller.
Pittsburgh got their first win on the board last week pummeling the Bengals 27-3 on Monday Night Football. It was a handy 229-yard, two touchdown game from Mason Rudolph that did the trick, while the defence also showed plenty of life sacking Andy Dalton eight times.
Baltimore’s week wasn’t quite so fun as the Ravens failed to show up against the division rival Browns. Lamar Jackson was sacked four times and threw two touchdowns, proving one of this years MVP favourites is indeed, human.
These two sides split their two meetings one win apiece last year, while the Steelers have also won two of their last three home games over Baltimore.
Of course, much of that came well before the Ravens transformed into an offensive juggernaut.
In a nutshell, you can expect Baltimore to rely much more on the ground game this week against a struggling Steelers run defence. But at the same time, the Ravens’ troubles on third down remain a slight concern.
The Total looks to be the safest play in this when you consider six of the last eight games between the two have gone Under. With a rookie quarterback on the field and a Ravens defence looking to bounce-back, this one should be low-scoring.
Tip: Under 44.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Plenty on the line in this AFC West rivalry as the Chargers hope to improve beyond .500.
As expected, Los Angeles made short work of the Dolphins last week winning 30-10 on the road. It was a strong bounce-back game from Philip Rivers throwing for 310-yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Austin Ekeler also chipped in with 60 rushing yards in the final game without Melvin Gordon.
While the Chargers find their stride, things are starting to look like a mess in Denver. The Broncos looked home and hosed against the Jaguars last week with a comfortable 17-6 halftime lead, right before allowing two touchdowns in the third quarter to go on and lose 26-24.
The Broncos have won seven of their last 10-games over the Chargers including last years 23-22 win in Los Angeles. That was before Denver’s defence fell on hard times, though.
The Chargers should welcome Gordon back into the fold this week to wreak havoc on a Broncos defence that has allowed the third-most rushing yards. Los Angeles is also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against a division opponent, so it’s worth backing the Chargers to win big again.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.92
Only fitting that Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott meet after a pair of game-ending interceptions last week.
The Packers have enjoyed an extended break after suffering their first loss of the season at home to the Eagles last Friday. The rest couldn’t have come at a better time for a defensive line showing early signs of wear and tear, but things are only going to get tougher on the road in Dallas.
The Cowboys turned up for a fight last week in New Orleans but struggled to find rhythm offensively. Dallas turned the ball over three times in the 16-10 loss, aided by Ezekiel Elliott’s tough day on the ground.
Green Bay owns a pair of famous victories over the Cowboys in the playoffs as well as a 7-3 record in their last 10-games.
The Packers have also won their last three games against Dallas at AT&T Stadium, while you have to rewind all the way back to 2007 to find the Cowboys last win at home over Green Bay.
There’s a lot to like about both teams right now, but you just can’t sleep on Aaron Rodgers producing something special against the Cowboys… again.
The future Hall of Famer has completed 68% of his passes in seven games against the Cowboys, good for 11 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers are 6-2 in their last eight games against Dallas, so back Green Bay at the line.
Tip: Back the Packers to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.96
The Chiefs came close to breaking last week against the Lions before Patrick Mahomes found some life to lead a game-winning touchdown drive.
It was a quiet one overall from the reigning MVP as Mahomes failed to throw a single touchdown pass, but even so, the Chiefs still remain undefeated as they head back home to face the Colts.
Indianapolis were the heavy favourites last week against the Raiders in a game they really should have won. The Colts put up 346-yards of total offence in the 31-24 loss, but a complete lack of possession cost Indy a chance.
This week’s game is a rematch of last years Divisional Playoff game. The Colts proved no match at Arrowhead losing 31-13 in a game Kansas City dominated in the air and on the ground, while the Chiefs also held Indianapolis 0/9 on third down.
Neither coach will read too much into last years meeting, however the Colts will need to establish the run game early if they hold any hope of pulling off an upset.
At the same time, Indianapolis can also learn a lot from Detroit last week. The Lions did a great job of putting pressure on Mahomes in the pocket, causing him to rush a handful of throws he normally would have made.
Rushing Mahomes is key to disrupting the flow of Kansas City’s offence, but he can still burn you on the ground. The line looks just about right here, and it’s worth backing the Chiefs to Cover.
Tip: Back the Chiefs to Cover the Line (-11 Points) @ $1.91
This could turn out to be the most exciting Monday Night Football game of the season between both the NFC West and the AFC North division leaders.
San Francisco has opened as narrow 3.5-point underdogs with home-field advantage fresh from the bye. The general consensus around the league is that the 49ers are the most underwhelming of the three remaining unbeaten teams, but there’s certainly something to be said about the way San Francisco continues to run the ball.
Speaking of running, that’s exactly what the Browns did last week as they pounded the Ravens 40-25. Nick Chubb finished with 165-yards and three touchdowns – his second highest yardage total.
Once upon a time a Monday night game between these two teams would have seemed like a nightmare but considering these two sides have met only eight times dating back to 1968, there’s plenty to look forward to.
The Niners are all about running the ball, both offensively and defensively. San Francisco ranks seventh in rushing yards, and dead last in rushing yards allowed.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has struggled so far this season, so you can expect Freddie Kitchen to lean on the running game early in this one. Considering the 49ers are the only team yet to allow a rushing touchdown though, that plan might backfire rather quickly.
San Francisco holds a 48-27 record on Monday Night Football and are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against AFC teams.
Despite what the haters say, the Niners improve to 4-0 this week.
Tip: Back the 49ers to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90
2018
And then there were two.
The Chiefs and the Rams lead the way as the NFL’s two remaining unbeatens, while the Cardinals still search for their first win of the year following a dismal 0-4 start.
As far as upsets go, last week was fairly quiet. Only the Titans and Bengals provided shockers, but ahead of another action-packed week, it appears we could be in for some much-needed drama.
So who’s a sure-thing in your multi?
Be sure to check out our entire 2018 NFL Week 5 Preview below!
In case you hadn’t heard, New England don’t lose back-to-back games very often.
Last week’s win over the Dolphins saw the Patriots bounce back to winning ways, helped out by a big day from running back Sony Michel who finally broke through with a 112-yard, one touchdown performance.
Indianapolis put some big numbers on the board themselves last week, but still managed to fall short to the Texans in overtime. Andrew Luck was phenomenal on the day passing for 464-yards and four scores, yet the Colts record tells the full story – at 1-3, this team should be better.
After last Friday’s game dished up a treat, it’s safe to say this one should live up to expectations though.
Indianapolis’ offense has been lively all season, and although the Patriots blew the Dolphins out of the water last week, their defence is in for a tough task containing Luck and his newfound favourites in the receiving game.
Of course, before we go any further, let’s remember the Colts are 0-5 in their last five games in New England, and in case you haven’t heard, the Patriots are fairly close to unbeatable at Gillette Stadium.
There’s also the fact that the Colts are likely to be without star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who recovers from a double whammy of hamstring and rib injuries.
That leaves Luck without his go-to downfield target, and sure, Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant can carry the load, but they are hardly the threat in the red zone Hilton poses.
There’s lots to like about the Colts, including a pass-rush that racked up seven sacks last week. Against Brady and New England’s revitalised run game though, don’t bet against them.
Tip: Back New England 1-13 @ $2.45
Buffalo’s winning ways against the NFC North came to an abrupt end last week, which is about what we expected as they took a trip to Lambeau to face the Packers.
The Bills failed to register a single point in a forgetful day for quarterback Josh Allen. In just his third NFL start, the rookie threw two picks, but overall, the Bills were woeful as a team, punting the ball on eight separate occasions.
In Tennessee, things weren’t quite so gloomy, in fact, the Titans pulled off perhaps the upset of their young season.
Tied 20-20 heading into overtime, a remarkable 10-yard throw from Marcus Mariota to wide receiver Corey Davis saw Tennessee walk it off at home over the Eagles, improving their record to 3-1 to remain on par with the Jaguars in the AFC South.
With a trip to New York ahead this week, it’s pretty tough to back against the Titans here.
Tennessee are 4-1 in the head-to-head market when facing the Bills on the road, and if the defence can sack Carson Wentz four times last week, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Allen has in store on Monday.
You may not know it, but the Titans’ biggest reason for success this season has been their lack of penalties. They committed only four fouls last week against Philly, allowing the offense to flow smoothly.
If Davis and running back Dion Lewis can contribute with another big day in the receiving game, this should be a morale boosting win for Tennessee.
Tip: Back the Titans To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.91
Now this, this should be something.
The Falcons have racked up the seventh most yards-per-game in the air this season, but have absolutely nothing to show for it.
Atlanta currently sit dead last in the NFC South following last week’s overtime loss to Andy Dalton, and with defensive stars dropping like flies, already this season feels a little lost.
On the same token, here’s the Steelers at 1-2-1 struggling to keep up in the AFC North. Last week’s home game against Baltimore ended in a 14-24 loss, and Pittsburgh aren’t about to be granted reprieve with missing running back Le’Veon Bell not expected to return until Week 7.
There’s a whole lot of headaches going for both of these sides right now, and it all starts on offense.
For the Falcons, Julio Jones is on pace for a 2,000-yard season, but he’s yet to catch a single touchdown pass. Meanwhile for the Steelers, it starts and ends with Ben Roethlisberger, who has now thrown five interceptions in four games.
Picking a winner in this one is tough, and we’ve already discovered home field advantage means next to nothing for the Steelers this year.
History suggests Pittsburgh are the safer play considering the Falcons are 0-4-1 on the road at Heinz Field though, however given their start to the season, no one would blame you if you struggled to trust the Steelers.
Much of this game will come down to the passing game, and which defensive secondary can contain either Jones and Calvin Ridley, or Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster the most.
Since those are four of the top wide receivers in the league, best to stick with the points market this week.
Tip: Back Over 58.5 Total Points @ $1.91
The Jets have come crashing back to earth in the last three weeks following their opening win over Detroit.
Last week was a harsh lesson for rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield against an elite Jacksonville defence, and although he kept a clean sheet, you only have to take one peak at the Jets’ numbers to realise how much they struggled to move the ball.
For Denver, offense wasn’t a problem against the Chiefs, it was defence and a little thing called the officials that cost them the win.
A missed delay of game call proved costly on the Chiefs’ game-winning drive, but overall, Patrick Mahomes carved Denver up to the tune of 304-yards and a score.
At 2-2, Denver are tough to get a grasp on right now. They’ve been one of the better teams in the league when it comes to stopping the run, and they haven’t been altogether bad against the pass either.
New York on the other hand were simply beaten by the clock last week. The Jags held the ball for 17-minutes longer than the Jets – or should we say, a quarter longer.
This week, we should probably expect much of the same. New York struggled to defend the run, while the Broncos rush attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman was lethal last week compiling 136-yards and two scores.
Stick with Denver in a not-so-close one.
Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $1.95
How will the Jaguars fare without their biggest star?
Jacksonville improved to 3-1 last week with a big win over the Jets, but lost running back Leonard Fournette in the process.
Backup T.J. Yeldon filled in nicely, although the Jags would much prefer to have Fournette on the field this week against the Chiefs.
Kansas City are the only remaining undefeated team in the AFC, and after their come from behind win over the Broncos on the road last week, it doesn’t appear the Patrick Mahomes hysteria is about to die in a hurry.
It might appear the safe play is at the line, but Jacksonville’s 2-4 record against the spread in their last six games against the Chiefs is less than encouraging.
As it so happens, this game actually figures as one to watch.
On one side of the ball, you have Jacksonville’s defence, a unit that has allowed the fewest overall yards per-game this season. On the other, you have the Chiefs potent passing game leading the league in points-per-game.
What does that equal?
With Fournette out, it’s safe to say this will be very low scoring, and it’s tough to trust Blake Bortles without one of his biggest pass blockers in the back-field.
As for the Chiefs, this will be Mahomes’ biggest test of his young career, and in case you missed the memo, it’s doubtful Tyreek Hill has a big game against star corner Jalen Ramsay.
Tip: Under 49.5 Points @ $1.91
This bitter NFC North rivalry has provided some classics over the years, and it can often mean the difference between playoffs or missing out altogether in this tight division.
A week ago Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers described his team as “terrible on offense”, which might seem bizarre considering Green Bay shut the Bills out in a 22-0 win last week.
The future Hall of Famer might be right though, the Packers are yet to hit full stride. Green Bay rank 17th in total yards-per-game through four weeks, and although the Lions sit 1-3, a trip to Detroit on Monday is no cakewalk.
For Detroit, that’s been the story of the season. Last week was a game the Lions should have won in Dallas, but again, the defence fell apart when it mattered most.
Ezekiel Elliott torched Detroit for an average of 6.2 yards per-carry, while Dak Prescott finally broke through with his first 200-yard, two touchdown game of the season.
In terms of history, there hasn’t been much separating these two. Detroit and Green Bay have split their last 10 meetings at five games apiece, but more importantly, the Lions are 4-2 head-to-head in their last six games at home.
It might feel hard for punters to trust the Lions right now, but just remember, they beat the Patriots a fortnight ago at Ford Field, and two of their losses this season have come by three points or less.
There’s also Green Bay’s road woes to factor in. The defence was dismal against the Redskins two weeks ago, blowing basic man-to-man coverage in the red zone while allowing Adrian Peterson to rush for 120-yards and a pair of scores.
With Lions running back Kerryon Johnson looking unstoppable, coupled with Golden Tate putting up typically clutch numbers last week, the Lions are a great upset pick at handy odds.
Tip: Back the Lions To Win @ $2.00
In case you missed it, the Browns put up 42-points last week against the Raiders, the most since the 2007 season.
Somehow Cleveland managed to lose in overtime, but the important thing is, this team is trending in the right direction… right?
The Ravens didn’t break any personal records last week, however they did manage to one-up their AFC North rivals with a big win over the Steelers.
Baltimore were already a serious dark horse entering the season, and now at 3-1, it appears ‘good’ Joe Flacco is alive and well.
Heading home now, the Browns enter as the serious underdogs, and considering the Ravens’ stingy defence, it’s not hard to see why.
The Ravens of old have shown up so far this season, allowing the fourth fewest points-per-game to start the year.
And how does that effect the Browns?
We saw last week that rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield looked a little rattled when the Raiders applied pressure, forcing balls down field that simply weren’t there.
This should be a fairly straightforward win for Baltimore if they keep Jarvis Landry quiet, just like Oakland did last week.
Likewise, another silent game from Isaiah Crowell would almost limit the Browns entirely.
Tip: Back the Ravens To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.95
The last thing the Giants need right now is a well-rested Panthers team fresh from the bye.
New York were awful last week at home, allowing 33-points to the Saints as running back Alvin Kamara had everything his own way.
We hate to beat the same old drum, but New York’s offensive line was again the cause for concern. Eli Manning was sacked three times, adding further frustration to an already discontent Odell Beckham Jr as he struggles to find targets.
That’s been the problem for the Giants so far – their star players aren’t seeing enough of the ball. OBJ caught for only 60-yards last week on 11 targets, while first round draft pick Saquon Barkley managed only 44-yards on the ground.
Carolina’s defence hasn’t been the best in the league, but let’s just say, scoring against the Panthers doesn’t come easy.
Allowing the seventh fewest points-per-game this season, Carolina’s pass rush has been lethal through three games, compiling eight sacks and 125 tackles.
Better yet, the Panthers have won six of their last 10 meetings against New York, and although they haven’t played New York since 2015, it’s very difficult to envision the Giants offense, let alone the defence, coping with guys like Luke Kuechly and the emerging D.J. Moore.
Tip: Back the Panthers 7-12 @ $4.75
If we were to suggest a month ago that these two sides would be 3-1 by Week 5, what would you have said?
Luck certainly played a factor for the Bengals last week, but hey, so did Andy Dalton. Full credit to the eight-year veteran, he led a phenomenal two-minute drill last week against the Falcons, marching all the way down to the 10-yard line to find A.J. Green in the corner of the end zone.
To the eye, it appears as though the Bengals are legit, which is more than we can say for the Dolphins.
After starting 3-0, Miami were touched up by their old division foes last week in Foxboro, falling by 31-points against the Patriots.
The jury was always out on the Dolphins, especially after beating lowly teams like the Jets and the Raiders in recent weeks. Now, they face a big test against one of the most versatile offenses in the game, and as the odds suggest, it doesn’t look good.
In Miami’s defence, they have been great strong on the road in Cincy. The Dolphins are 7-2 in head-to-head markets when travelling to Paul Brown Stadium, but at the same time, this new look Bengals team is a different beast.
If Green keeps this up, he’s on pace for about 1,500-yards and 15 touchdowns, all of which would be a career high.
Meanwhile, the running game is just as potent, led by a big effort from Giovani Bernard last week.
Miami’s offense should keep this game close, and receivers like Kenny Stills and Davante Parker should put up big numbers, but defensively, it’s tough to see a team that’s allowed seventh most yards-per-game shutting down Dalton and Co.
Tip: Back the Bengals To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.87
Considering the final score, you’d be forgiven for thinking LA should have beaten a Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers team by more than two points last week.
To be fair, Philip Rivers did throw for 250-yards and three touchdowns though, and it was nice to see Melvin Gordon explode with a big 159-yard contribution.
This week, it’s another very winnable game against a Raiders side that basically needed five quarters to defeat the Browns at home.
Overall, there wasn’t a lot to like from Oakland last week, especially on offense. Derek Carr threw two interceptions, and the offensive line certainly didn’t help his confidence allowing three sacks.
Even worse, the Raiders were also particularly poor on third down, converting just 31% of their tries.
The good news is, Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa is out yet again this week as he recovers from a foot injury, but if Oakland hope to contain LA’s pass rush, they’ll need to do a much better job protecting their quarterback.
Tip: Back the Chargers 1-6 @ $4.50
The NFL is funny, sometimes the worst games on paper can turn out to be the best – case in point last week’s Raiders/Browns match up.
Both of these sides were unlucky last week, losing by as much as a field goal in the final quarter. The stat sheet doesn’t look pretty for the Cardinals, a familiar theme this season, however full credit where it’s due – quarterback Josh Rosen actually looks promising.
Sure, the rookie only threw for 180-yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, but he stepped up and made some big throws in the fourth quarter. It was also encouraging to see David Johnson rush for more than 50-yards, a sign that he is slowly returning back to solid form.
The Niners, well what can you say? Life was always going to be tough following Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury, and that’s exactly what we saw last week against the Chargers.
San Francisco struggled on the ground, stunned by the Chargers interior defence, but on the plus side, George Kittle continues to emerge as a Top 3 tight end in the NFL.
With 125-yards and a score to his name, the second-year pro has become a quick favourite for fill-in quarterback C.J. Beathard, just like he was for Jimmy G.
Interestingly enough, that works in favour of the Cardinals, who have allowed only 143-yards and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
Of course, on the other hand, the Cardinals have been particularly poor covering receivers so far, so we should expect a big game from Pierre Garcon this week.
Overall, this looks like a bit of a stalemate, and considering the total has gone Under in six of Arizona’s last eight games on the road, stick with the points market between these two offensive strugglers.
Tip: Back Under 41.5 Total Points @ $1.87
Intriguing battle between last year’s NFC Conference Championship opponents.
To refresh your memory, the Eagles got the better of the Vikings in that one convincingly. After a lengthy rest following last Friday’s loss against the Rams though, it’s more than likely this rematch stays pretty close.
There’s a lot to loath if you’re an Eagles fan right now, although it’s tough to get a read on why the Super Bowl champs have won just two of their four games.
The culprit last week was a serious pass interference call that basically cost Philly the game against the Titans last week. By all accounts though, the defence has been great, allowing the ninth fewest yards-per-game this season.
On offense, things aren’t terrible either. Carson Wentz was fantastic last week, and so was receiver Alshon Jeffery during his return from injury.
No, the Eagles have just been unlucky and quite frankly, very flat. Committing errors in crucial moments of the game in the form of penalties and turnovers hurts, and there’s just been little creativity on offense so far.
Against a Vikings defence that was lit up last week for 38-points against the Rams, it’s probably tough to trust Minnesota this week, but keep in mind, Kirk Cousins threw for 422-yards and three touchdowns against an equally impressive unit.
You hate to call a Week 5 game “season defining” but that’s what this is. A loss sends the Vikings to 1-1-3, and a loss for the Eagles sends them to 2-3.
It’s a coin flip, and it should be another cracking shootout, so with that in mind, go for the team with the better offensive weapons, and right now, that’s the Vikings.
Tip: Back the Vikings To Win @ $2.50
It took all four quarters for the Seahawks to trump the Cardinals last week, but they got the job done on the road thanks to the boot of Sebastian Janikowski with less than 10 seconds remaining.
The win puts Seattle right on pace with how we thought they’d play this season. The Seahawks are 2-2, basically on course for what should be a 7-9 season.
Los Angeles, well what can you say? They are the only remaining undefeated team left in the NFC, and if they weren’t a Super Bowl favourite before last week’s win (they were), the Rams look close to a certainty to be playing deep into the postseason.
So can the Hawks pull off an upset here at home?
Last week’s win was nice, but it came with a price. Star safety Earl Thomas fractured his left leg in the fourth quarter, and you don’t have to be an NFL expert to know that spells bad news for Seattle against this explosive Rams receiving corp.
The tide has certainly turned in the NFC West, and although Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin might challenge the Rams early, there’s just not enough firepower to get the job done.
Seattle’s run game is confusing – they are still yet to use first round pick Rashaad Penny – and the defence is so limited now without their vocal leader.
Blowout, belting, whatever you want to call it, this shouldn’t be close.
Tip: Back the Rams 13-18 @ $5.00
This Deep South battle holds plenty of implications for Texas’ two underwhelming franchises.
There’s so much to talk about here, but while the Cowboys win over the Lions last week was no doubt a gutsy effort, it was far from convincing.
On one hand, Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott looked great. On the other, the defence was carved up by Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate, which is a worrying sign ahead of this week’s game against the Texans.
To be fair, you could raise the same concerns for Houston who were burned by Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers last week.
What the Texans have going for them though is Deshaun Watson, who continues to grow in confidence week after week.
In case you hadn’t heard, Houston also has some good receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins caught for 169-yards in Week 4, but have you heard the name Keke Coutee? In his first game as a rookie, the 21-year old caught for 109-yards on some creative underneath routes, a favourite of Watson’s during his time at Clemson.
Home-field advantage means the world this week, and on the primetime stage of Sunday Night Football, you have to like the Texans and their red-hot offense against what has been a pretty so-so Dallas team thus far.
Tip: Back the Texans 1-6 @ $3.50
Alvin Kamara was quiet, almost too quiet up until last week.
The Saints star running back went bananas against the Giants rushing for 134-yards and three touchdowns, but the MVP candidate may not have things all his own way this week against the Skins.
Fresh from a bye, Washington’s run defence has been stout to start the season, allowing the sixth fewest rush yards-per-game.
Don’t let their 2-1 record fool you either, the Redskins are one of the better offensive teams in the league, capable of dismantling average defensive schemes in a heartbeat – just ask Green Bay.
Alex Smith threw for 220-yards and a pair of touchdowns during the Skins’ Week 3 win, while the running game kicked into gear behind Adrian Peterson’s huge day.
Speaking of Peterson, a game against his former team should motivate the veteran this week. He claims he has no beef with the Saints, which is probably good news considering New Orleans’ run defence has been equally as impressive as Washington’s.
With both teams boasting strong defensive numbers against the run, it’s likely we see most of this game played in the air, which weighs in favour of the Saints.
It was a quiet week for Drew Brees last week, failing to throw for a single touchdown, while Michael Thomas managed only 47-yards.
These two last played in New Orleans a year ago, a game the Saints won 34-31. Plenty of points should be on offer once again, but it’s hard to back against Sean Payton’s side at home.
Tip: Back the Saints To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.95
2017
The upsets continued in the NFL last weekend and punters who have backed underdogs so far this season are well and truly in front.
This weeks action gets underway with a huge clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots on Friday and that is only one of a number of huge games.
There are a number of attractive betting plays in the NFL this weekend and our complete 2017 NFL Week 5 tips can be found below.
The New England Patriots went down to the Carolina Panthers last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as clear favourites.
The Patriot’s defence has been embarrassed on a number of occasions this season and if it were not for the brilliance of Tom Brady their start to the season may have been even worse.
New England have still won their past nine games as away favourites and they are 8-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have flown under the radar so far this season, but they are 3-1 and they have played some solid football.
This is easily their toughest test of the season to date, but they have won two of their past three games as home underdogs and have an offence that will definitely test the Patriots’ struggling defence.
There is no doubt that this will be an interesting game, but it is one that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
There isn’t a great deal between these two sides, but it is the Indianapolis Colts that will start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Colts were no match for the Seattle Seahawks last weekend and continue to struggle without Andrew Luck, but this is obviously an easier assignment.
Indianapolis have won four of their past five games as home favourites and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
The San Francisco 49ers are still chasing their first win of the season following their third straight heart-breaking loss at the hands of a divisional rival.
San Francisco have won only one of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.
The torture should continue for San Francisco this season and Indianapolis can return to winning form.
Back Indianapolis To Win @ $1.83
The New York Jets have recorded two wins on the trot, but it is the Cleveland Browns that will start this clash as narrow favourites.
Cleveland are yet to win a game this season, but they have still shown some improvement in 2017.
This is the first game that they will start as favourites for over 12 months and for obvious reasons they are a very difficult side to trust from a betting standpoint.
There was plenty of speculation before the season that the Jets would fail to win a single game this season, but following their overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars they now have the same record as the Patriots.
Winning away from home has been an issue for the Jets – they have won only one of their past seven games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
Both these teams are impossible to trust, but the one market that does appeal in this game is the Under in Total Points betting markets.
The Under has saluted in eight of the past nine home games played by the Browns and has also been a profitable betting play in Jets games over the past 12 months.
Back Under 39.5 Points
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 3-1 record without being overly impressive and they will start this clash with the Jacksonvilla Jaguars as clear favourites.
Pittsburgh have been excellent at home over the past 12 months and they have won six of their past seven games as home favourites, while they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Jacksonville were nothing short of outstanding against the Baltimore Ravens a fortnight ago, but they were unable to build on that performance and they went down to the New York Jets last weekend.
The Jaguars have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are 6-2 against the line in this scenario.
Pittsburgh deserve to start this clash as clear favourites, but their is no value at their current quote and the line of eight points is just about right.
No Bet
The New York Giants and the Los Angeles Chargers have both had tough starts to the NFL season.
New York are yet to win a game, but they will still start this clash as favourites and this is position in which they have done well over the past 12 months – they have won four of their past five games as home favourites and have been a profitable betting play against the line.
Los Angeles have lost three games by three points or less and they suffered another heart-breaking defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend.
The Chargers have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs for a loss and they have been a losing play against the line in this scenario.
New York desperately need to win this clash and they can cover the line in the process.
Back New York To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
There has been no bigger surprise package in the NFL this season than the Buffalo Bills, but it is the Cincinnati Bengals that will start this clash as favourites.
The Bengals finally recorded their first win of the season with a comprehensive victory over the Cleveland Browns, but they remain a tough team to trust from a betting standpoint – they have won only two of their past six games as home favourites for a clear loss.
Buffalo scored their second big upset in as many weeks with a win over Atlanta and their defence looks set to be one of the best in the entire NFL this season.
The Bills have now won two of their past five games as away underdogs and they are a profitable betting play against the line in this scenario.
This Buffalo defence will give Andy Dalton and the Bengals offence plenty of issues and they are great value to record another upset win.
Back Buffalo Bills To Win @ $2.40
The Detroit Lions have flown under the radar somewhat, but they go into this clash with the Carolina Panthers with a 3-1 record and they will start as clear favourites.
Ford Field has been a happy hunting ground for Detroit over the past 12 months and they have won their past four games as home favourites, while they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
Carolina bounced back from their surprise loss at the hands of the New Orleans Saints to beat the New England Patriots and they can build on that momentum.
The Panthers have won two of their past five games as away underdogs and they are 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
This will be one of the most interesting games of the weekend, but there is no value from a betting standpoint and this is a game that I am keen to stay out of.
No Bet
Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota goes into this clash under an injury cloud and that makes it tough to analyse this game.
The Titans are yet to officially rule Mariota out due to a hamstring injury, but at this stage he looks unlikely to take his place.
Mariota’s availability will completely change this betting market and we will not go into any great depth about this clash until we know more about his status.
No Bet
The Philadelphia Eagles currently sit on top of the NFC East and they will start this clash with the Arizona Cardinals as dominant favourites.
Philadelphia have held their composure to record two narrow wins on the trot and this will be a good test about just how good they actually are.
The Eagles have won four of their past five games as home favourites and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
Arizona claimed their second overtime win of the season when they beat San Francisco last weekend, but this is obviously a much tougher test.
The Cardinals have won only one of their past four games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
I am yet to be convinced that Philadelphia are a legitimate contender this season, but they will still be too strong for Arizona.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
The Oakland Raiders have now lost two games on the trot and they desperately need to win this game to get their season back on track.
This is a contest that they will start as favourites and the Raiders have been able to make the O.co Coliseum into a genuine fortress over the past 12 months – they have won their past six games as home favourites and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
Baltimore also go into this clash on the back of a pair of defeats and they were no match for the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Winning away from home has been an issue for Baltimore and they have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs, while they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that Oakland simply must win and they can cover the line of 2.5 points in the process.
Back Oakland To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
This is a big games for both these teams.
The Los Angeles Rams are now 3-1 and if they can beat the Seattle Seahawks they will cement themselves as genuine NFL Playoffs contenders.
Los Angeles have actually won three of the past four games played between these two sides, but they have won only one of their past four games as home favourites.
Seattle produced their best performance of the season to date to beat the Indianapolis Colts last weekend and they can go to the top of the NFC West with a win in this game.
The Seahawks have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
Recent games between these two sides have been low-scoring affairs, but that can change this weekend.
The Over has saluted in 10 of the past 16 games played by the Rams and has also been a profitable betting play in Seahawks fixtures.
Back Over 47.5 Points
This is one of the games of the weekend and is a replay of the NFC Divisional Playoff clash between these two sides at the end of last season.
Dallas somehow managed to find a way to lose their most recent clash against the Los Angeles Rams, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Cowboys have won six of their past eight games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
The Green Bay Packers produced their most complete performance of the season to date to account for the Chicago Bears last weekend and they have won six of their past seven games against Dallas.
Green Bay have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs for a small loss and they are a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
This is another game in which the Over in the Total Points betting market represents the best betting play.
The Over has saluted in eight of the past nine games played on the road by the Packers and this could turn into a genuine shootout.
Back Over 53 Points
The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team left unbeaten in the NFL this season and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Kansas City are often thought to play their best football in front of their home fans at Arrowhead Stadium, but they are just as good on the road and they have won their past eight games away from the home.
Even more impressively, they have covered the line in each of these games and they are a team that continue to be underrated by the market.
Houston’s offence was nothing short of exceptional against the Tennessee Titans and if that is the sign of things to come this franchise will be genuine Super Bowl contenders.
This will be a much stiffer challenge and while they have won six of their past eight games at home, their record against the line in front of their home fans is poor.
Kansas City can continue on their winning ways and cover the line in the process.
Back Kansas City To Beat The Line (-1 Point)
The Minnesota Vikings will start this clash with the Chicago Bears as clear favourites.
Sam Bradford looks set to make his return for the Minnesota Vikings and his return will be a decent boost to an offence that has been inconsistent during the NFL season to date.
Minnesota have struggled away from home in recent seasons and they have won only one of their past seven games on the road, while their record against the line in this scenario is no better.
The Chicago Bears were no match for the Green Bay Packers last Thursday night, but there is no doubt they are a side that performs better in front of their home fans at Soldier Field.
Chicago have won three of their past seven games as home underdogs for a profit and they are a most impressive 6-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Bears are a genuine chance of recording an upset win and they are a great bet with the insurance of a 3.5 points start.
Back Chicago To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
2016
Week 5 of the 2016 NFL season gets underway on Friday morning when NFC West rivals the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals do battle at Levi’s Stadium.
There are a number of what should be very even games on Monday morning, which means plenty of betting opportunities, while the Green Bay Packers host the New York Giants in the prime time game on Monday.
The action concludes when divisional rivals Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off on Tuesday and you can find our thoughts for every single game below!
These is a huge game for both sides as a loss would almost rule them out of Playoffs contention.
Big things were expected of Arizona this season, but they have now lost two games on the trot and were particularly poor against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend.
They will still go into this game as favourites and they have won five of their past seven games in this scenario, while they are 4-3 against the line.
San Francisco sunk to their third straight loss against the Dallas Cowboys and it would not surprise to see Chip Kelly make a host of chances for this clash.
The 49ers have actually performed strongly at Levi’s Stadium over the past 12 months and they have won four of their past eight games at the venue for a healthy profit.
These are two teams that are very tough to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
No Bet
Tom Brady is back!
The New England Patriots have done well in his absence, but Brady will only improve what is already a very strong outfit.
New England are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NFL, but they have only won four of their past eight games as away favourites and they are 2-6 against the line.
Cleveland are staring down the barrel of a winless season and they have not won a game since they beat San Francisco since December last year.
The Browns have lost their past five games as home underdogs and their record against the line is almost as poor.
New England are clearly the team to beat in this contest, but there is no value at their current quote and I am happy to stay out of this contest.
No Bet
The Philadelphia Eagles have been the story of the NFL season to date and they head into this clash with an unbeaten record.
Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been an absolute revelation and this Philadelphia side is playing with a great deal of confidence.
It is no surprise that they will go into this clash as clear favourites and they have won six of their past 10 games as home favourites, while they are 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Detroit suffered their third straight loss when they went down to the Chicago Bears last weekend and this is a team that really is struggling to put away games of football.
They do have the home ground advantage in this clash, but they have won just one of their past three games as home underdogs and they have an identical record against the line.
The betting market that really stands out in this clash is the Over/Under total points betting market.
The over has saluted in six of the past eight games played at Ford Field, while the over is 5-1 in the past six Philadelphia Eagles away games.
Back The Over
The Indianapolis Colts suffered another loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend and their season is clearly at a crossroads.
Their defence has just been unable to get the job done and there is too much pressure on Andrew Luck to perform.
They will still go into this clash with the Chicago Bears as favourites, but they are only 3-3 as home favourites and they have the same record against the line.
Chicago finally recorded their first win of the season against the Detroit Lions in what was easily their best performance of the season to date.
The Bears have won five of their past nine games as away underdogs for a very healthy profit and they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
I am very happy to take on the Colts in any game this season and the Bears are great value to record an upset victory.
Back Chicago To Win @ $2.80
This is another game between two teams that desperately need to win.
Miami were no match for Cincinnati last weekend and they only victory so far this season came against Cleveland in overtime.
They will go into this clash as favourites and they have won three of their past four games in this scenario, while they are 1-3 against the line.
Tennessee also have just the one win so far this season, but there have been some reasonably positive signs.
That does not mean they are a team that you can trust from a betting perspective – they have won just two of their past eight games as away underdogs and they have an identical record against the line.
Miami should be able to return to winning form and there is still an edge at their current price of $1.53.
Back Miami To Win @ $1.53
Baltimore suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of the Oakland Raiders at the start of the season and they face another tricky assignment against Washington.
The Ravens will still go into this game as clear favourites and their record is home favourites is fairly poor – they are just 3-3 in this scenario and they are just 1-1-4 against the line.
Washington have recorded two wins on the trot and they produced a professional record against the Cleveland Browns last weekend.
They have improved each time that they have played this season and they have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Washington are great value to come away with the victory and I am very keen to back them with a start of four points.
Back Washington To Beat The Line (+4 Points)
The Minnesota Vikings have stamped themselves as genuine Super Bowl contenders with their impressive start to the season and they will defend their unbeaten record against Houston this weekend.
Minnesota have been ultra-impressive in each of their games so far this season and they are dominant favourites to make it five wins on the trot.
The Vikings have won their past five games as home favourites and even more impressively they have beaten the line in each of these fixtures.
Houston got the job done without JJ Watt against the Tennessee Titans, but they face a much tougher assignment against the Vikings.
The Texans have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit, but they have an identical record against the line.
Minnesota should prove far too good for the Texans in this clash and they are a safe bet to beat the line of 6.5 points.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
The Pittsburgh Steelers returned to winning form in emphatic fashion against the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend.
The Steelers offence is close to unstoppable when they play at their best and they are clear favourites to win again this weekend.
Pittsburgh have won six of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
New York have only the one win from their four games so far this season and it does not get any easier against the Steelers.
The Jets have won one of their past three games as away underdogs and there is very little to suggest that they can return to winning form.
Pittsburgh are one of the safest bets of the weekend and they can comfortable cover the line of seven points.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-7 Points)
The Denver Broncos just keep on winning and they improved their record to 4-0 with a very comfortable victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Paxton Lynch looks likely to get the start over Trevor Siemian, but that should not make any difference and they are still clear favourites to win this encounter.
Denver have won four of their past six games as home favourites for a narrow loss, but they are just 1-1-4 against the in this scenario.
Atlanta have been one of the biggest surprise packages of the NFL season to date and Matt Ryan was outstanding once again against Carolina.
The Falcons have won three of their past five games as away underdogs for a profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Atlanta are more than capable of recording an upset and they are a great bet to beat the line with a start of six points.
Back Atlanta To Beat The Line (+6 Points)
The Dallas Cowboys have recorded three wins on the trot and are playing some excellent football, but they will still start this game as underdogs.
This is easily the toughest test that Dallas have faced during their season to date and they have not won a single game as home underdogs in the past 12 months, while they are 1-2-3 against the line.
Cincinnati returned to winning form with a comfortable performance against Miami and they really need to make it two wins to get themselves right back into playoffs contention.
The Bengals have won their past three games as home favourites and more impressively have an identical record against the line.
Cincinnati should be able to tough it out against the Cowboys and there is genuine value at their current price.
Back Cincinnati To Win @ $1.80
The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills have both found form in recent weeks and this will be a very interesting clash.
Los Angeles made it three wins on the trot with another upset victory over the Arizona Cardinals and they are right in the NFC West.
The Rams will start this game as favourites and this is a position in which they have struggled in over the past couple of season – they have won just five of their past ten games as home favourites.
Buffalo recorded their biggest win of the season over the New England Patriots last weekend and they will go into this clash with plenty of confidence.
The Bills have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a narrow loss and they have an identical record against the line.
I am not really keen on either of these teams at their current prices, but there is value in the total points betting market.
The under has saluted in 13 of the past 16 games played by the Rams and another low-scoring game looks very likely.
Back The Under
These is a crucial game between these AFC West rivals.
The Oakland Raiders improved their record to 3-1 with their thrilling victory over the Baltimore Ravens and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Oakland have been a tough team to trust in front of their home fans over the past year and they are 0-3 against the line in this scenario.
San Diego continue to put up big scores, but just can’t get the job done on offence and they suffered another very narrow defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints last weekend.
The Chargers have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs, but their record against the line in this scenario is a fairly incredible 7-1.
San Diego are more than capable of making this clash close and they are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 3.5 points.
Back San Diego To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
The Green Bay Packers are back in action after a week off for the bye and they are chasing their first back-to-back win of the season.
Green Bay will go into this game as dominant favourites and they have struggled as the punter’s elect over the past 12 months – they are 4-3 in head-to-head betting and they are 3-4 against the line.
New York have suffered back-to-back defeats at the hands of the Washington Redskins and the Minnesota Vikings and they are losing touch with the Eagles and Cowboys at the top of the NFC East.
The Giants have lost their past seven games as underdogs and their record against the line is just as poor.
Green Bay should be too strong for the Giants, but there is no value at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
No Bet
This is a crucial game for the Carolina Panthers as they have one just one of their four games to date this season.
Carolina will still go into this clash as clear favourites and they remain a team that you can trust from a betting perspective.
The Panthers have won eight of their past nine games as home favourites, while they are 7-2 against the line in the same scenario.
Tampa Bay made a promising start to the season, but they were very poor against Denver last weekend and don’t really look to have improved.
The Buccaneers have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear profit and their record is 4-3 against the line in that scenario.
Carolina really should be able to return to winning form in this clash and the line of 5.5 points will not be enough.
Back Carolina To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)