For the fifth time in the last 10-years, the New England Patriots head to the Super Bowl as the favourite. This year it’s the Los Angeles Rams turn to play the underdog, something they weren’t too familiar with when these two teams met way back in 2001.
The Super Bowl is a bettors paradise, especially if you can nail a lengthy multi at big odds. We’ve previewed every match up and every market, and our complete Super Bowl 53 Preview can be found below.
Los Angeles Rams
New England Patriots
Monday 4 February, 10:30am, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
LA Rams 3 – New England 13
Super Bowl 53 Head to Head Betting
Tough to top the Conference Championships, don’t you think?
Two overtime games saw the Rams and the Patriots through to Super Bowl 53, leaving us with a repeat of Super Bowl XXXVI and a razor tight market between one of the most innovative teams in the league and, of course, the team everyone loves to hate.
The Rams polished off the Saints 26-23 on the road to book a date in Atlanta. It was a fascinating battle from a statistical standpoint, as Sean McVay opted for the fresh-legged C.J. Anderson over the league’s leading touchdown scorer, Todd Gurley.
As for the Patriots, it was the same old story against the Chiefs. New England found themselves needing an extra 10-minutes on the road, but Bill Belichick’s side prevailed thanks to some classic Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski heroics before Rex Burkhead scored the game-winning touchdown.
So what next? Are we in for a shootout? A defensive stalemate or, for the second straight year, an upset?
The last time these two sides met was way back in 2016, a game the Patriots won quite comfortably 26-10. You can’t read too much into that, but we can however, draw plenty of takeaways from last weekend’s Conference Title games.
New England’s success came from Brady’s precision in the pocket, but the Patriots simply ran the Chiefs ragged. Many thought the double-duo attack of running backs James White and Sony Michel would cause Kansas City headaches, throw in Rex Burkhead though, and you’ve suddenly got your hands full.
The Patriots ran for 177-yards and four touchdowns on a sloppy Chiefs line, which in turn forced Kansas City to blitz way too often. The game altering play came on a Dee Ford offsides that otherwise would have been a game-ending Brady interception, and while LA’s defence is much more reliable than Kansas City’s, if you overplay New England, they’ll make you pay.
The Rams simply need to stick with what works on defence, and that’s forcing turnovers. They ranked third in the league in takeaways during the regular season, and as we saw against the Chiefs, Brady still has a tendency to overthrow his receivers when he’s rushed in the pocket.
Overall this game really comes down to coaching, though. A year ago we saw Belichick stumped by Doug Pederson, so can Sean McVay turn the tables?
Offensively the Rams need to get Gurley involved if they are to win this game, while targeting former Patriots wide receiver Brandin Cooks will be vital to LA’s chances. We saw Jared Goff lead a game-winning drive in New Orleans, so if he’s awarded the time in the pocket, he’s certainly capable of lashing this mediocre Patriots secondary – one that allowed the 11th most yards through the air this year.
New England played a great first half against Kansas City, but penalties and some basic misdirection plays caused them to allow a 14-0 lead to slip. Against a Rams side known for creative, high-tempo play calls, not to mention ranking Top 10 in all major offensive categories this season, Los Angeles might just prove how far ahead of the curve they are compared to Belichick and Co.
Tip: Back the Rams To Win @ $1.92
Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Betting
The Total has opened at 58.5 points, marking the highest line since Super Bowl 51 between the Patriots and Falcons. Those two sides covered nicely back in 2016, and considering both the Rams and Patriots ranked inside the Top 5 in points scored during the regular season, it’s safe to say we could be in for another barn-burner.
In their 18 games across both the regular and postseason, seven of New England’s games resulted in the Over. They’ve successfully covered in both playoff games against the Chargers and Chiefs so far, while the Rams came through nine times during the regular and postseason.
With all that in mind, it is worth remembering the Patriots looked to be headed for the Under against Kansas City. They led by just seven-point three minutes prior to halftime, and since both of these sides should look to run the ball a ton, the Under looks safer.
Tip: Back Under 58.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Super Bowl 53 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting
If you’re looking to add some value to your multi, you have to include some Anytime Touchdown scorers to your betslip. When it comes to the Super Bowl, there’s always a number of star players to choose from, but it’s worth diving into the stats a little if you wish to make a sensible choice.
Los Angeles Rams: Tight end Gerald Everett was particularly impressive for the Rams last week, catching for 50-yards on just two targets. The Rams like to run pick plays with their tight ends, a strategy that could prove dividends against New England. The Patriots allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends during the regular season, including a crucial score against Travis Kelce in Kansas City.
Other players worth your while include Todd Gurley, who is looking to bounce back from what he called a “sorry” display against the Saints. The short odds on offer don’t leave much value, but it’s also worth considering a Rams D/ST touchdown. Los Angeles ranked third in interceptions during the regular season, and that’s without even mentioning Aaron Donald.
New England Patriots: Julian Edelman lit the Chiefs up for 96-yards in the AFC Championship Game, but as we saw in last year’s Super Bowl with Danny Amendola, Bill Belichick likes to throw curveballs at the opposing defence.
Cordarrelle Patterson could certainly fall into the category of unexpected red zone targets. He caught only three touchdowns during the regular season, enjoying most of his time as the Patriots’ kick returner. Even so, don’t be surprised if Belichick looks to use Patterson’s height advantage late in the game, while running back Sony Michel, New England’s ground and pound option in short yardage situations, should figure on the scoreboard somewhere.
Super Bowl 53 MVP: Todd Gurley @ $13.00
Todd Gurley limped into the playoffs, and so far, he’s been anything but his former self. The league’s leading touchdown scorer was more or less benched against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game, finishing with a measly 10 rushing yards and a touchdown to his name.
Banking on another quiet performance from a player of Gurley’s caliber would be foolish. He’s faced the Patriots just once in his four-year career, which poses all sorts of match up problems for Belichick this week. New England were gashed by Chiefs running back Damien Williams in the both the air and on the ground, and with a week break to get his head (and fitness) straight, you have to fancy a Gurley bounce-back.
Tip: Todd Gurley Super Bowl 53 MVP @ $13.00
Super Bowl 52
It has been an exciting NFL season packed full of surprises and it will all come to a head when the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Super Bowl 52.
Many NFL experts were quick to write off the Eagles when Carson Wentz went down with injury and Nick Foles has led them to two big wins during the NFL Playoffs.
Standing in the way of Philadelphia’s first ever Super Bowl win is a New England Patriots outfit that has lost just three games all season long and has the chance to win their sixth Super Bowl since 2002.
Can the Eagles deliver their fans a maiden Super Bowl or will the Patriots dynasty claim yet another title? We have analysed both sides and our complete Super Bowl 52 tips can be found below.
Super Bowl 52 Head To Head Betting
The New England Patriots have become one of the most dominant franchises in the history of professional sport and they are deserving favourites to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
There is no doubt that the Jacksonville Jaguars gave the Patriots a scare in the AFC Conference Championship, but was there ever any real doubt that the Patriots would finish over the top of their rivals?
New England have so much big-game experience and there is arguably no quarterback in the history of the NFL that is better down the stretch than Patriots – as we saw in the Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons 12 months ago.
The Patriots have won 16 of their past 19 games as favourites for a big profit and they are an even more impressive 13-6 against the line in this scenario.
They are 5-2 in the Super Bowl since 2002 and in that time they are 15-0 in the NFL Playoffs against sides that they did not play in the regular season.
It is always tough to bet against the Patriots and Super Bowl 52 will be no exception.
The Eagles have been the best team in the NFC all season long and the fact that they have performed so strongly following the season-ending injury suffered by Carson Wentz is a testament to the overall strength of the organisation.
Nick Foles has filled the shoes of Wentz ably and he was excellent in the NFC Conference Championship against the Minnesota Vikings, but he can’t win in a shootout with Tom Brady and an upset Eagles win will come on the back of a huge defensive effort.
The Eagles have won four of their six games as underdogs this season for a profit and they did beat New England when they last met in 2015.
Philadelphia are a side with a Super Bowl window that will be open for some time and I expect them to win one in the Wentz-era, but a Super Bowl win without their starting quarterback over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will likely prove a bridge too far.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)
Super Bowl 52 Over/Under Betting
The Total Points line for Super Bowl 52 has been set at 48 points and that seems just around right for two high-powered defences.
Backing the Under in games involving the New England Patriots over the past 12 months has been a slightly profitable play, while the Over/Under are split 9-9 in Philadelphia Eagles’ games this season.
The line of 48 points looks incredibly close to the mark and I am happy to stay out of this market from a betting perspective.
Super Bowl 52 First Touchdown Scorer Betting
Rob Gronkowski ($8) is a narrow favourite in First Touchdown Scorer betting markets from Dion Lewis ($9), Brandin Cooks ($10), Zach Ertz ($11), Jay Ajayi ($12) and Alshon Jeffrey ($13).
Danny Amendola has come up big for the New England Patriots during the NFL Playoffs – he scored two crucial touchdowns in their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Conference Championships – and he has become a favourite target for Tom Brady.
Amendola is very dynamic when fit and he does appeal at the current price of $15.
LeGarrette Blount has only had 15 carries during the NFL Playoffs, but he has scored two touchdowns and the Eagles will use him for any short-yardage work near the end-zone.
The Patriots know just how dangerous a runner that Blount can be and he also appeals at the current price of $15.
Back Danny Amendola @ $15 & LeGarrette Blount @ $15 To Score The First Touchdown
Super Bowl 52 MVP Betting
It should come as no surprise that Tom Brady is a dominant $1.60 favourite in Super Bowl 52 MVP betting markets.
Brady has won the Super Bowl MVP on four occasions – the most by any player – and if the Patriots are to claim another Super Bowl title it would be very surprising if Brady did not win this award.
Linebackers have won two of the past four Super Bowl MVP awards and if a linebacker does claim the award again in 2018 it could be Mychal Kendricks – who has developed into one of the best linebackers in the NFL.
This is obviously an outside shot and offensive players generally do take the award, but at $301 Kendricks is worth a gamble.
Back Tom Brady @ $1.60 & Mychal Kendricks @ $301 To Win Super Bowl MVP
Super Bowl 51
The Super Bowl is always one of the highlights of the sporting year and the 51st edition of the event between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons is set to be an extremely exciting affair.
The New England Patriots have been the dominant team in the AFC all season long and they will go go into Super Bowl 51 as clear favourite, but they will face a tough test against an extremely talented Atlanta Falcons side.
Will New England win yet another Super Bowl or can Atlanta finally deliver Super Bowl success? We have analysed a wide range of betting markets to come up with the best betting plays for one of the biggest days in sport.
Head To Head Betting
The New England Patriots have lost only two games this season and their roster includes a stack of players that have plenty of Super Bowl experience.
New England are yet to be really tested during the NFL Playoffs to date and they have played within themselves to date, but it is fair to say that they have probably not played a team with the offensive firepower possessed by the Atlanta Falcons this season.
Winning as favourites has not been an issue for the Patriots this season and they have won 15 of their past 17 games in this scenario, while even more impressively they are 14-3 against the line when giving away a start.
During the Belichick era, the Patriots are 2-2 in Super Bowls in which they have started favourites – with most losses coming against the New York Giants – and 2-0 in Super Bowls that they have started as favourites.
Atlanta have been easily the most impressive team during the NFL Playoffs and they stamped themselves as the best team in the NFC with dominant victories over the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.
It was their performance against the Packers that was particularly outstanding – their attack was unstoppable and their defence was able to shutdown a firing Aaron Rodgers.
The Falcons have won four of their six games as underdogs this season for a clear profit and they are 5-1 against the line in this situation.
It should be noted that no favourite has won the Super Bowl since the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011 and underdogs have won six of the past seven editions of the event.
It is very tough to beat against the New England Patriots as they have been nothing short of outstanding this season, but the value in the Super Bowl odds does lie with the Atlanta Falcons and they can cause yet another Super Bowl upset.
Back Atlanta To Win @ $2.25
Super Bowls are notoriously low-scoring affairs, but the Over has actually saluted at three of the past five Super Bowls.
The 58.5 points that has been set as the Over/Under line for this clash is the largest in the history of the Super Bowl and they is actually not that much of a surprise considering the two teams that will be in action.
Atlanta have been an Overs team all season long and the Over has saluted in 15 of their past 18 games, while the Under is actually 10-8 in games involving the New England Patriots.
The market looks to have got the line for this clash just about right.
Super Bowl 51 MVP Betting
It should come no surprise that quarterbacks dominate the Super Bowl 51 MVP betting market.
Tom Brady ($1.83) and Matt Ryan ($2.75) have a mortgage on the award according to the market from Julio Jones ($17), Julian Edelman ($21), LeGarrette Blount ($26) and Devonta Freeman ($26).
Jones is the clear standout in betting value for the Falcons.
He was absolutely enormous against the Green Bay Packers and he will surely need to have a similar game against the Patriots if the Falcons are going to come away with the victory.
When it comes to the New England Patriots it really is tough to go against Tom Brady.
There is no doubt that the Falcons defence has improved as they get further into the season, but the best quarterbacks in the NFL have still been able to put up big numbers and Brady is the obvious key-man for the Patriots.
Back Julio Jones @ $21 & Tom Brady @ $1.83 To Be Named MVP
First Score Of The Game
First score of the game is always an interesting betting market and some punters had an absolute fill-up when the Denver Broncos conceded a safety for the opening score of Super Bowl 49.
The New England Patriots have not been the quickest starters in recent weeks, while the Falcons have jumped out of the blocks very quickly.
Atlanta can take the early lead and $3.25 for them to start with a touchdown is a great bet.
Back Atlanta Falcons Touchdown As First Score Of The Game @ $3.25