2024 NRL Finals Week 1 Preview

The 2024 NRL finals are upon us and the week one schedule has delivered four mouth-watering match-ups.  

Preliminary final spots are on the line on Friday night and Saturday afternoon, while it’s do-or-die for the elimination finalists on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon as we count down to the 2024 NRL Grand Final! 

Perennial heavyweights Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters have won five of the last six premierships between them, but this blockbuster qualifying final has been overshadowed by the combatants’ injury concerns and setbacks.  

The second-placed Panthers have been in limbo since Nathan Cleary’s shoulder injury suffered in their Round 24 loss to Melbourne. They subsequently lost in Canberra, beat Souths easily and earned a scrappy 18-12 win over Gold Coast in the final round.  

Cleary has been named in an otherwise unchanged, full-strength line-up for the three-time champs but will be an obvious target – particularly for likes of rampaging Roosters second-rower Angus Crichton and former teammate Spencer Leniu.  

The Roosters, meanwhile, are still grappling with season-ending ACLs to spine duo Sam Walker and Brandon Smith, while Victor Radley also remains sidelined for now. Sandon Smith and Connor Watson filled the playmaking breach adequately in a 36-28 win over the Rabbitohs last Friday.  

Dom Young, Daniel Tupou, Lindsay Collins and Nat Butcher all return for Trent Robinson’s side after missing last week.  

The Panthers are on a nine-match winning streak against the Roosters, whose last win in the rivalry was during their 2019 heyday. Their sole clash this season saw the Cleary-less Panthers prevail 22-16 at Allianz Stadium, with Sunia Turuva scoring a hat-trick. 

Penrith are 3-1 against the Tricolours in finals matches, including qualifying final thrillers in 2014 (19-18) and 2020 (29-28). The Roosters are 2-5 overall in the post-season since winning back-to-back titles in 2018-19. The Panthers have won nine straight finals matches.  

Cleary’s presence – even if underdone – along with their dominance of the Roosters, their finals record and home-ground advantage (where the Roosters haven’t won since 2017) are all impossible to overlook, despite the blue-chip quality still in the visitors’ ranks.  

The Panthers know how to get the job done in September and should book the first preliminary final berth in typically gritty style.  

Tip: Back the Panthers to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.80 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 6-10 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / SUNIA TURUVA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DOMINIC YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $53.34 

Minor premiers Melbourne Storm host a qualifying final against a Cronulla Sharks side striving to end a six-match finals losing streak.  

The Sharks will look to channel the character that underpinned a 25-18 win at AAMI Park in Round 10, producing an outstanding performance without Nicho Hynes or Braydon Trindall…against a Storm team missing Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen. 

Melbourne won six of the teams’ previous seven encounters. The Storm won the clubs’ 2018 preliminary final convincingly, but the Sharks’ euphoric 2016 grand final victory looms large over the rivalry.  

The Storm cruised to the minor premiership two wins clear, winning 11 of their last 13 games. A second-string team went down to the Cowboys 38-30 in Round 26 but they made an emphatic statement by crushing the Broncos 50-12 in a dead-rubber last Thursday.  

Jahrome Hughes has been the NRL’s best player in 2024, while Cam Munster and Harry Grant are finding their best again in an ultra-consistent, if largely unheralded, Storm line-up.  

The Storm welcome back Papenhuyzen and Christian Welch, while Sua Faalogo is out of the squad altogether with injury. Xavier Coates’ successful return last week leaves Grant Anderson as an unlucky 18th man.  

The underrated Sharks sealed a top-four finish by winning five of their last six games, bouncing back from a shock last-minute loss to the Warriors by putting Manly to the sword 40-20 on the road last Sunday.  

Oregon Kaufusi returns from a one-week rest, pushing Royce Hunt back to the bench – somewhat tempering the potential loss of Tom Hazelton, who is listed in the reserves as he battles a knee injury.  

The Sharks boast threats all over the park in a very settled team, but the unavoidable question mark is linchpin Hynes’ ability to step up in a pressure game. He’s been adequate in the past two rounds since returning from a seven-game layoff.  

The Storm have won eight of the last 10 finals at AAMI Park but have been tipped up twice by the Raiders at home in the post-season in recent years. The Sharks have won one finals match outside Sydney in their history – in Canberra in the 2016 qualifying final.  

Melbourne’s top-shelf spine quartet and vast experience in winning at this time of the season are impossible to ignore and justify their $1.30 favourite’s tag.  

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line @ $1.96 

SGM: STORM BY 11-15 / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $95.37 

North Queensland Cowboys snuck under the radar to grab fifth spot with some big late-season wins, earning a home elimination final against a Newcastle Knights side that came from the clouds to snatch the last available spot in the Top 8.  

The Cowboys won six of their last seven games, bookending an overwhelming unimpressive 38-30 win over an unrecognisable Storm side with blistering victories over Canberra at home (42-4) and Canterbury in Sydney (44-6).  

The latter was the Cowboys at their best: battering the Bulldogs through the middle and icing their opportunities with direct play on the edges and quick ball movement. Second-rower Heilum Luki was especially destructive, while Jake Clifford continues to justify his recently-won place at halfback. 

Veteran prop Jordan McLean is back for the Cowboys, pushing Sam McIntyre to the bench and Thomas Mikaele out of the 17.  

The Knights made something of a largely meandering, disappointing season by winning four of their last five and reaching the playoffs for the fourth time in five years as their rivals stumbled.  

Last week’s loser-bows-out clash with the Dolphins was an ideal dress rehearsal for the finals, grinding out a 14-6 win with outstanding goal-line defence complementing the rare class of Kalyn Ponga.  

The Knights will run out the same side, with Kai Pearce-Paul named in the reserves as he looks to return from a leg laceration that ruled him out of the last two rounds.  

The Cowboys have won nine of their last 12 against the Knights, including the last three straight. A 21-20 golden point victory was the Cowboys’ eighth straight against the Knights in Townsville.  

One glaring statistic going against Newcastle is a 1-9 record against fellow Top 8 teams. North Queensland leads all teams in the finals on that metric with a 7-3 record. The Knights have also won just one of their last four on the road, while the Cowboys have won four of their last five at home. 

The Cowboys have been prone to the odd aberration at Queensland Country Bank Stadium – including conceding 40 points to the Warriors and Broncos during the second half of the season – but they seem to have found a groove more recently and last week’s performance was first-class.  

The Knights have a couple of favourable match-ups, but too much hinges on Ponga’s ability to create points and the club’s first away finals loss since 2013 seems unlikely.  

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.83 

SGM: COWBOYS/COWBOYS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / MURRAY TAULAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HEILUM LUKI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.90 

Lining up in their first finals match in eight years, Canterbury Bulldogs are aiming to defy a disrupted build-up and a late-season form slump ahead of a Sunday afternoon barnburner against a Manly Sea Eagles side that also received a Round 27 reality check.  

A watershed campaign that saw the Bulldogs go on a 10-2 run with what was briefly the NRL’s best defensive record and a blossoming offence has been tempered over the past fortnight.  

They were outplayed 34-22 by the Sea Eagles in Round 26, before capitulating 44-6 to the Cowboys last Friday with their lightweight middle-forward contingent exposed and their defensive resolve wilting.  

Compounding those performances, Josh Addo-Carr has stood himself down after failing a roadside drug test. Addo-Carr’s absence gives Jeral Skelton the opportunity of a lifetime on the wing, while Matt Burton and Bronson Xerri are back on deck this week.  

Manly was on course for a home elimination final but their season-best defeat of the Bulldogs – which was accompanied by another Tom Trbojevic injury setback – was bookended by a shock loss to the Tigers and a disappointing 40-20 defeat to the Sharks in front of a packed Brookvale crowd.  

The Sea Eagles welcome Trbojevic back but he’s likely to be less than 100 percent. Tolu Koula goes back to centre and Tommy Talau moves to the wing with Jason Saab still sidelined.  

Manly’s victory a fortnight ago was its 10th in 11 games against Canterbury. The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Sea Eagles in finals matches – including wins in the clubs’ only NRL-era post-season clashes, in the 2012 qualifying final and 2014 semi-final.  

Playing in the finals for the first time since 2021, the Sea Eagles are 2-4 in the post-season since the Bulldogs’ last appearance in 2016.  

But the big-match experience of Daly Cherry-Evans shapes as a major trump card for the team in maroon and white – though the Bulldogs boast four players who have played in a grand final in the past three seasons.  

In a pick ’em, Manly shapes as the best bet after Canterbury’s recent wobbles on and off the field.  

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Win @ $1.87 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VILIAME KIKAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $43.99 

2023

The 2023 NRL Finals get underway on Friday with a monster showdown between Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm, before fairytale team New Zealand Warriors attempt to pull off a king-sized upset at Penrith on Saturday. 

There’s a struck match between Cronulla Sharks and Sydney Roosters, while Newcastle Knights are red-hot favourites to send Canberra Raiders packing in Sunday’s elimination final. 

Brisbane gambled the minor premiership on resting its big guns against Melbourne last week and lost, setting up a hoodoo rematch in the opening qualifying final. 

While neither side will be putting too much weight on the Storm’s 28-22 win last Thursday with so many stars rested on both sides, it did extend their dominance over the Broncos to 14 straight matches – and their unbeaten streak in the rivalry at Suncorp Stadium to 14 years. 

Melbourne carved out a typically gritty 24-16 win over high-flying Brisbane at AAMI Park in Round 11. 

Ryan Papenhuyzen’s excellent display at fullback was a highlight of the Round 27 victory and he’s on the Storm bench this week, with Nick Meaney retaining his No.1 jersey. Young Tonumaipea and Marion Seve are in the centres, while Jahrome Hughes has been cleared. 

The Broncos welcome Adam Reynolds and Patrick Carrigan back from injury, and Kotoni Staggs from suspension. Corey Oates is the odd man out in the backline, with Jesse Arthars picked on the wing. Keenan Palasia has beaten Corey Jensen for a bench spot. 

Brisbane was on a seven-match winning streak before last week’s loss, with the likes of Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam in scintillating touch, but the 18-6 Broncos arguably haven’t had the better of an in-form heavyweight to date in 2023. 

Uncharacteristically patchy for much of the season, Melbourne is on a four-match winning streak for the first time in 2023 – albeit against modest opposition – but the Storm have been racking up plenty of points. 

The Storm are also 6-1 in finals matches against the Broncos under Craig Bellamy (3-0 at Suncorp), most recently ending their season in the 2017 prelim.

With the Broncos appearing in their first finals match since 2019, the hosts will be leaning on the likes of Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell. 

The Storm were bounced by the Raiders at home in week one last year but the premiership experience Cameron Munster, Hughes, Harry Grant, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and co. provide is a handy advantage. 

The visitors have their work cut out containing Walsh – who showed during Origin he’s unlikely to be overawed by this new, big stage – and Payne Haas, especially.

But there is unquestionably something in this rivalry bogey and the Storm are very attractive underdogs in this barnburner. 

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.02 

After securing their third minor premiership in four years, Penrith Panthers kick off their post-season campaign against a Warriors outfit making a rare finals appearance. 

The 18-6 Panthers have won nine of their last 10 games, bouncing back from a shock 32-18 loss to Parramatta in the penultimate round with an authoritative 44-12 beatdown of a desperate North Queensland last Saturday. 

Jarome Luai is the Panthers’ only top-liner unavailable, with hooker Mitch Kenny and back-rower Scott Sorensen both returning. 

The Warriors’ seven-match winning streak came to a halt last weekend when a team with eight first-choice stars rested went down 34-10 to the Dolphins, where positives came in the shape of strong performances from the likes of Josh Curran. 

The Warriors have been struggling to find their best since racking up a string of resounding wins in June and July, scraping past also-ran opponents, but Shaun Johnson, Addin Fonua-Blake and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad have stayed in magnificent touch throughout. 

The only contentious selection for the Warriors sees Jazz Tevaga return from another injury layoff at Bunty Afoa’s expense, with Mitch Barnett starting at prop and utility Bayley Sironen retaining a bench spot.

Te Maire Martin made his first NRL start in four months last week and will wear the No.6 here. 

The Warriors are on a seven-match losing streak against the Panthers, though they gave the two-time champs a tough test in an 18-6 Magic Round loss despite having two players sin-binned. 

The Warriors’ only finals match in the past 11 seasons was a 27-12 elimination final defeat to the Panthers in 2018. Johnson, Harris and Tevaga are survivors of that loss, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak was playing fullback for a Panthers side that included Cleary, James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota and Tyrone Peachey. 

Whichever way you spin it, this is a mountainous assignment for the $4.80 underdog Warriors.

Their momentum has been stunted somewhat, there’s a stack of players on finals debut or with little playoffs experience and they’re in hostile territory. 

But they’ve got nothing to lose and coach Andrew Webster knows what makes Ivan Cleary’s Panthers tick as well as anyone.

Grasping any scoring opportunities will be paramount against a team that concedes only 13 points per game – Johnson is the clear key there. 

The Panthers enjoy some favourable match-ups on the edges, but if the Warriors can hold their own through the middle they’re every chance of keeping this one close. 

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+13.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / WARRIORS OVER 12.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT SORENSEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $44.61 

Cronulla Sharks have done enough to book a home elimination final, but will their middling form be enough to stop the charge of a Sydney Roosters side that miraculously made the finals with five straight wins? 

The Sharks have won four of their last five, recovering from a 32-6 belting at Newcastle to finish with a wet sail against a 12-man Canberra in a 24-6 win.

The latter ended a five-match losing streak (the last four of which were by 26-plus margins) against fellow Top 8 sides. 

The Sharks have named an unchanged 17, though Will Kennedy is in the reserves and is expected to replace in-form fill-in Connor Tracey, who suffered a knee injury against the Raiders. 

On the ropes in 14th with the NRL’s worst attack in mid-July, the Roosters have turned things around with out-of-sorts big guns James Tedesco, Brandon Smtih and Joseph Suaalii rediscovering their mojo and Sam Walker’s return to the No.7 in recent weeks has also made a difference. 

The Roosters walked the tightrope with five consecutive wins over teams who would go on to miss the finals, displaying impressive composure and intensity to finish over the top of South Sydney 26-12 in a virtual Top 8 playoff last Friday. 

Like the Sharks, their last win over a fellow Top 8 finisher was against the Knights mid-season. 

Game-breaking centre Joey Manu is racing the clock to be fit but has been named with Corey Allan dropping to the reserves.

Daniel Tupou is still out, giving Junior Pauga – sensational against Souths – another opportunity on the wing. The Roosters are otherwise unchanged. 

Cronulla snapped a seven-match losing streak against the Roosters courtesy of a 22-12 result at home in Round 7, dominating the second half.

The clubs have met just twice at finals time, with the Roosters grabbing hard-fought wins in 2002 and 2018. 

Essentially a head-to-head pick ’em, this is arguably the hardest match of week one to get a read on.

The Sharks’ straight-sets exit in 2022 after finishing second may still be lingering in the back of their minds and more rests on Nicho Hynes’ shoulders than any individual Rooster. 

A packed house in the Shire may give Cronulla a crucial boost, but the Roosters’ momentum and vast finals experience (despite losing four of five matches since winning back-to-back titles in 2018-19) should be more decisive factors. 

Tip: Back the Roosters to Win @ $1.85 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / BILLY SMITH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.73 

Week one of the playoffs concludes with a daunting road trip for a faltering Canberra Raiders outfit, attempting to prevent Newcastle Knights from chalking up a ninth straight victory. 

The Knights’ revival has been one of the great stories of 2023, beating several Top 8 rivals and destroying also-rans while scoring almost 40 points per game and conceding only 13 on the club’s longest winning streak in more than two decades. 

Kalyn Ponga and a blockbusting three-quarter line have been at the forefront, but every player on the team sheet has played an integral role.

Despite missing six key players last week, the Knights surged home to beat the Dragons 32-12 in Wollongong and seal fifth spot. 

The Knights welcome Ponga, Jackson Hastings and Lachlan Fitzgibbon back into their starting side, as well as rested trio Tyson Frizell, Dane Gagai and Phoenix Crossland. 

Few sides have hit the finals in worse shape in recent times than the Raiders. Winning just two (against the lowly Tigers and Bulldogs, unconvincingly) of their last seven, the Green Machine followed up a gritty 29-18 loss to the Broncos with a pivotal 24-6 defeat at Cronulla after Seb Kris was sent off. 

A minus-137 points differential tells part of the story for Ricky Stuart’s Raiders, but taking the 12th-ranked defence in the competition into the finals is their biggest concern – while only four teams have scored less points. 

In the Raiders’ only change, James Schiller is the surprise choice to replace the suspended Kris on the wing, with Jarrod Croker, Albert Hopoate and Xavier Savage all in the reserves. 

The Knights have won five of their last seven against the Raiders, including a 24-14 home upset in Round 4 and an utterly dominant 28-6 victory in Canberra just six weeks ago with Ponga in dazzling form. 

The Raiders’ biggest strength is holding on in close games – they’ve predominantly won thrillers or lost big throughout 2023 and there’s no shortage of game-breakers in their ranks. 

As a club the Raiders have a fair bit more recent finals experience, too: 11 games (six wins) in the past six seasons to the Knights’ two games (zero wins) in the past nine seasons. 

But stemming the irresistible attacking force of the Knights for long periods shapes as a massive task the Raiders are ill-equipped for, particularly with star forwards Josh Papali’i and Corey Horsburgh sidelined. 

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-13.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: KNIGHTS BY 11-20 / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $63.75 

2022

What a line-up of showdowns to kick off the 2022 NRL finals series – derbies and grudge matches galore with stacks of recent post-season history adding an extra edge to all four encounters.

With preliminary final spots and elimination survival on the line, where does the week one value lie?

The playoffs get underway with a Western Sydney barnburner. Penrith gapped the field to win the minor premiership in a canter with a 20-4 record. But fourth-placed Parramatta accounted for two of the defending champs’ four losses.

The latter was just six weeks ago, powering to a 34-10 win following Nathan Cleary’s first-half send-off. But the performance the Eels will be looking to channel is their gutsy 22-20 victory at Penrith in Round 9. Junior Paulo and Clint Gutherson led the way in a classic, while Dylan Brown and Ryan Matterson also starred.

The archrivals also met at the semi-final stage last year. The Panthers held on 8-6 against the courageous, under-strength Eels in Mackay.

A heavy loss to Souths aside, enigmatic Parramatta has found some elusive consistency with five wins in its last six games. The blue-and-golds backed up beatdowns of the Bulldogs and Broncos with a quality 22-14 defeat of the Storm last week to jump into the Top 4.

Penrith has been coasting to the end of the regular season and sent out a reserve-grade side against North Queensland last Saturday, which went down 38-8.

On top of Cleary’s return from a five-week suspension, the Panthers are at full strength with their 11 rested players and injured Api Koroisau and Spencer Leniu returning. Intriguingly, Jaeman Salmon has been named on the interchange.

The Eels are unchanged, with Nathan Brown named 18th man after returning from injury in NSW Cup last weekend.

Mouth-watering individual match-ups abound across the park and there’s no doubt the best of Gutherson, Brown, Mitchell Moses and Reed Mahoney – complemented by the firepower of Maika Sivo out wide and game-breakers in the pack – can rattle the seemingly unshakeable Panthers.

But it has to start up front with Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard standing up to James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota and co. The Panthers lost in week one to Souths last year (albeit in Queensland) and have a hint of vulnerability about them after a low-key build-up to the playoffs.

The Eels tend to lose big or win outright. But they have found a groove and should push a potentially rusty Panthers all the way – with an upset result certainly within reach.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRY SCORER / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $25.52

A fascinating 5 v 8 clash given these clubs’ recent history. Canberra has won its last four at AAMI Park – including a stirring 2019 qualifying final upset and a thrilling 20-16 victory in Round 18 this year that snapped a five-match losing streak against Melbourne.

The Storm surrendered their Top 4 spot via a 22-14 loss away to Parramatta in Round 25 as injuries continue to plague their premiership assault. Jahrome Hughes missed the match, which left too much on the shoulders of Cameron Munster, who shapes as the most influential player of the NRL finals.

Melbourne beat a Cleary-less Penrith 16-0 in Round 22 before putting 60 points on Brisbane, but consecutive losses to the Roosters and Eels have dented confidence in the perennial contenders. Hughes returns, though, with Cooper Johns dropping out of the side in the only change to the Storm 17.

The Raiders surged into the Top 8 with seven wins from their last eight matches. The only matches during that run against Top 8 opposition were the win over the Storm and a 20-point loss to the Panthers. But they were in irresistible attacking form in the past fortnight in crushing Manly 48-6 and Wests Tigers 56-10.

Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead – two of the Raiders’ most finals-hardened players – return after getting a well-earned rest last weekend, with Matt Frawley and Albert Hopoate the players to make way.

Joe Tapine has arguably been the NRL’s form front-rower this year partnering modern great Josh Papalii, while second-rower Hudson Young has been as dynamic as any forward in the comp and the Green Machine’s pacy outside-back contingent – while erratic – is very difficult to stop when they find some rhythm.

The Raiders match up well with the Storm right across the park, though Hughes’ return is an enormous boost and allows Munster to float into an ultra-dangerous playmaking fullback role. Jamal Fogarty is still finding his feet as Canberra’s No.7 after a delayed start and Wighton must step up as the dominant half for the visitors.

Strap in for another absorbing chapter in the southern rivalry. Only one eighth-placed team has knocked over fifth in 10 seasons of the current finals format, but the Raiders represent tantalising value with such a big start in this sudden-death fixture.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $19.59

The two biggest overachievers of 2022 get the opportunity to book a spot in the preliminary finals on Saturday night. There’s only a few remnants from their high-stakes encounters of the past decade, but Cronulla and North Queensland met four times in the finals from 2013-17 – winning two apiece.

The Nicho Hynes-led Sharks have lost just one of their last 12 games, powering to second spot with four straight 16-plus wins over also-rans the Tigers, Sea Eagles, Bulldogs and Knights. Their last genuine test was back in Round 20, when Hynes proved the match-winner in a 21-20 golden point thriller against Souths.

The third-placed Cowboys have something of a psychological hurdle to overcome here: their 38-8 win last week over a Penrith side missing 14 first-choice players ended a run of four straight losses against Top 8 opposition.

The cavalry returns at the right time for Cronulla: fullback William Kennedy is back from the first time since Round 20, front-row hardman Toby Rudolf comes in after three matches on the sideline, and Connor Tracey is on the wing following two matches out.

Coen Hess (suspension) returns at the expense of Jamayne Taunoa-Brown in the Cowboys’ only change.

Winning the right to play at home is a huge boost for the Sharks. They are 9-1 in the Shire this season. Meanwhile, they overwhelmed an Origin-depleted Cowboys side 26-12 in Round 18 – their eighth straight win in the rivalry. The Cowboys haven’t won at Cronulla since 2014.

The Cowboys are 2-3 in Sydney this year and have come up short away to the Roosters and Rabbitohs in the past four weeks. They’ll need to be at their defensive best to combat the Sharks’ freewheeling offence – but there’s ample firepower and variety in their own ranks to take the ascendancy if the hosts aren’t switched on.

The experience of veteran ex-Shark Chad Townsend will be crucial opposite Hynes, who starts an NRL finals match for the first time, while premiership winners Jason Taumalolo and Jordan McLean have to set the tone for their bevy of tyro forwards on post-season debut.

At their fortress, though, the Sharks shape as the smart option in the closest head-to-head match-up of the weekend.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win @ $1.72

SGM: SHARKS BY 1-12 / UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $55.39

Sydney Roosters claimed rivalry bragging rights and a psychological edge with a 26-16 win over South Sydney in last Friday’s Allianz Stadium reopening, ensuring the 6 v 7 sudden-death rematch would be played at the same venue.

The Roosters got out of the blocks fast on the back of the Luke Keary-Angus Crichton combination and coasted after leading by 20 points early in the second half. But the win came at a high cost with champion centre Joey Manu suffering a calf injury that may rule him out for the entire finals series, should the Roosters advance.

The Rabbitohs can take confidence from the way they fought back with Damien Cook (COVID) missing, Cameron Murray (HIA) departing in the first minute and in-form Latrell Mitchell getting binned on an overall off night for the superstar fullback.

Souths have won seven of their last 10 with Mitchell the fulcrum, but losses to the Sharks, Panthers and Roosters may have sapped confidence in their ability to beat the NRL’s heavyweights.

Losing Manu aside, the Roosters are the competition’s form with eight consecutive wins on the back of a relentless forward pack and the class of James Tedesco and co.

Versatile Drew Hutchison replaces Manu in the centres, having started three matches there in the last seven rounds. Daniel Tupou and Joseph Suaalii return on the flanks after sitting out last week, while Victor Radley is back from a concussion absence in a huge boost.

Murray is named but will go through concussion protocols, while hooker Cook returns with Peter Mamouzelos dropping out. Campbell Graham’s return pushes Jaxson Paulo out of the Rabbitohs line-up.

After incredibly going 76 years without meeting in a finals match, the bitter rivals have clashed three times in the playoffs in the previous eight seasons. Souths won an epic prelim 32-22 on their way to the 2014 title, while the Roosters prevailed 12-4 in the corresponding game in 2018 and 30-6 in week one of the 2019 finals.

The Roosters’ win last week snapped a four-match losing streak against the Rabbitohs. The Allianz Stadium factor shouldn’t provide too much of an advantage for the ‘home’ side – the last eight matches between the inner-city sides at the venue pre-refurbishment were split four apiece.

Mitchell and Cody Walker have to be at their effervescent best for Souths to compete. But the decisive factor will be the Rabbitohs’ ability to counter the Roosters outstanding yardage game, with Matt Lodge adding a new dimension to an utterly dominant engine-room.

The Tricolours have conceded just 11.7 points on average (and no more than 18) in their last seven games, and their consistency across 80 minutes is another major advantage against a dangerous but comparatively flighty Souths line-up.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / RABBITOHS UNDER 17.5 POINTS / ALEX JOHNSTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JOSEPH SUAALII ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $23.16

2021

The first round of the NRL Finals has finally arrived and there are four huge games to choose from across the entire weekend.

A potential Grand Final preview awaits on Friday between minor premiers Melbourne and Manly, followed by the Roosters taking on the late arriving Gold Coast Titans on Saturday evening in Townsville.

The Panthers and Rabbitohs headline the primetime slot in the second Qualifying Final, while Sunday’s second Elimination game looks to be an evenly matched affair between the Eels and Knights.

With Grand Final aspirations on the line, find out who we’re backing in our NRL Finals Week 1 Preview here!

The Storm and the Sea Eagles will meet for the second time in just over a month on Friday night with a trip to the Prelim on the line.

Melbourne walked away 28-18 victors against Manly in Round 21, and it is no surprise to find the Storm laying a similar margin at the line in their return to the Sunshine Coast.

Craig Bellamy’s side has won all nine of their games played at this venue, but that won’t worry a Manly side that locked up a top four spot last week with a stunning 56-10 win over the Eels.

Justin Olam was the star of the show when these two sides last met, right before Cameron Munster secured the game-clinching try with just over 10 minutes to spare.

Unfortunately, the star five-eighth’s status is in doubt after a wound on his knee turned infectious, while Josh Addo-Carr also needs to prove fit at training after missing last week’s game with a hamstring issue.

The absence of both would be enough to swing this game in Manly’s favour, but that isn’t to say the Sea Eagles can’t win even if Munster and Addo-Carr take their place.

The main reason for Manly’s loss to the Storm last month was penalties and a complete lack of possession, two areas that really haven’t been a problem for Des Hasler’s side at all this season.

With a strong 8-4 record on the road and even better 5-2 record as the away underdog at the line against Melbourne, the +8.5 about Manly is a steal.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Titans’ 44-0 shutout over the Warriors last week has propelled them to an unthinkable finals spot against an injury-ravaged Roosters side on Saturday.

After what was largely a disappointing campaign, Gold Coast’s attack finally produced the goods as they now look to rattle off back-to-back wins for only the third time all year.

Sydney’s long list of injuries makes the Titans a very intriguing betting prospect, but there is some good news ahead for the Tri-Colours with Victor Radley and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves both likely to return in time for the finals.

Fans of both teams will likely be a little nervous heading into this game after the Roosters gutted out a 35-34 win over the Titans back in June.

Waerea-Hargeaves was enormous on both sides of the ball that day, but it is worth noting the Titans forced a whopping 62 missed tackles whilst controlling the bulk of possession.

As far as betting goes, some might say the Titans don’t deserve to be in this spot, but there’s no denying how dangerous they look with Tyrone Peachey now playing at five-eighth.

Sporting a tidy 3-1 record as the away underdog at the line this year, the Titans look good value with double-digits on offer.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Panthers have owned South Sydney’s number over the last three years as they set out to make it six wins on the trot on Saturday night.

Ivan Cleary’s side has dismantled the Rabbitohs in their previous two meetings this season, the most recent coming only three weeks ago in a comfortable 25-12 win at Suncorp.

The Bunnies have responded nicely in the aftermath with a blowout victory over the Roosters and a gutsy win over the Dragons to salvage a top four spot, but a trip to the Prelim looks unlikely with Latrell Mitchell and Adam Reynolds both on the sideline.

The Panthers, on the other hand, are one of the healthiest sides heading into the finals as they gear up for another Grand Final assault.

Nathan Cleary sparked last week’s outstanding win over the Eels, while Brian To’o also came up big with a hat-trick.

The Rabbits are more than capable of piling on the points themselves, but there’s no getting around the fact the Panthers have conceded close to 200 points less than South Sydney this year.

Based on their record against the Rabbitohs as well as last week’s performance, look for the Panthers to make a statement here.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Eels and the Knights will enter Sunday’s elimination game with similar mindsets after suffering respective double-digit losses last week.

While Newcastle’s loss to Brisbane meant very little in terms of the ladder, Parramatta’s 34-point annihilation at the hands of the Panthers cost them a chance at salvaging a top four finish and the double chance.

To make matters even more complicated, these two sides have met only once this year with the Eels walking away comfortable 40-4 winners during Origin week.

A lot has changed since then though, especially on the Knights’ front with several key faces returning from injury.

The additions of Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best has made an enormous difference to the Newcastle attack over the last month, and it appears more reinforcements are coming with David Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti both a chance at playing this week.

The Eels also have some top names returning themselves in the form of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Clint Gutherson – two welcome additions on the back of last week’s thrashing.

As far as betting goes, this is probably one of the toughest games to pick, but the edge does belong with Parramatta after Newcastle’s sloppy performance against the Broncos last week.

The Eels have played to a steady 12-6 record as the favourite at the line over the last 12 months, and if they can jump on the Knights early like did Brisbane did, they could win this big.

Tip: Back the Eels to Win & Under 45.5 Total Points @ $3.00

2020

The 2020 NRL Finals kick off on Friday night with four very intriguing games on offer.

Penrith hosts the Roosters with a chance to advance to the Prelim and there is enormous value to be found on both sides in the market.

The Raiders and Storm have opened as short-priced favourites on Saturday as they prepare to tackle the Sharks and Eels respectively, while the Bunnies are also odds-on to defeat the Knights in the second elimination game on Sunday.

With plenty at stake, we’ve analysed everything you need to know in our 2020 NRL Finals Week 1 Preview below!

The Panthers will be hoping to pick up where they left off in Round 1 with a second straight win over the Roosters.

Penrith handed the reigning premiers an early upset in front of their home crowd to start the season, and it appears the bookies are favouring the Panthers to repeat that performance on Friday night.

In case you’ve missed it, the Panthers have won 15 straight games after shutting out the Bulldogs 42-0 last week.

Ivan Cleary’s side is arguably the team to beat from here on out, a sentence normally used to describe the Roosters at this point in the season.

After spending the last month or so as the Premiership favourite, Sydney now find themselves third in betting following last week’s dismal 60-8 loss to the Rabbitohs.

On a more positive note, head coach Trent Robinson should have a near-full squad to choose from this week with Jake Friend, Joey Manu and Lindsay Collins all set to return from injury.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are also welcoming back Brian To’o from injury as well as Dylan Edwards, Viliame Kikau and Stephen Crichton after having last week off to rest.

Penrith has played to a perfect 6-0 record at home this season, while they’ve also managed to cover in five of those games at the line.

That said, the Roosters just don’t lose back-to-back games, evident in the fact they’ve gone 4-1 in their last five games after a loss.

This one should be extremely close, but you have to side with the reigning premiers to respond to last week’s meltdown against a Penrith side that has enjoyed a very cruisy six weeks leading into the finals.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Raiders and the Sharks will meet for the second week in a row following Canberra’s comprehensive 38-28 victory last Saturday at Jubilee.

Ricky Stuart chose to rest most his big name stars in preparation for the finals, a decision that paid off as Tom Starling and Iosia Soliola helped gain the Raiders some much-needed momentum heading into the postseason.

The Raiders are expecting a supporting cast of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jordan Rapana, George Williams and John Bateman to return from injury this week, bolstering Canberra’s chances even further with home-field advantage.

Cronulla, meanwhile, continues on without star fullback Shaun Johnson, who underwent surgery to repair a ruptured achilles.

The Sharks lost three of their last five games to close out the home-and-away season, so they appear easy hunting for the Raiders this week.

Canberra has now won three straight over Cronulla dating back to last season and are also 6-2 as the favourite in their last eight home games.

Throw in the fact the Sharks haven’t beaten a top-eight side all season, and you have yourself what appears to be one of the safest line bets of the week.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-14 Points) @ $2.00

A spot in the Preliminary Final is up for grabs when the Storm host the Eels from Suncorp on Saturday night.

Craig Bellamy wisely chose to rest several of his stars last week against the Dragons with the second spot on the ladder completely locked in.

The decision cost Melbourne a win in the end, but the Storm should be better for it with Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr and a handful of others all set to play on fresh legs this week.

Parramatta, on the other hand, was forced into playing a full side last week with a top four finish still uncertain.

The Eels walked away with a 28-24 win over the Tigers to secure the double chance, but they still looked vulnerable across the 80-minutes after Wests mounted a serious comeback on the other side of the half-time break.

Parramatta fans will likely be feeling a little anxious heading into this game knowing the Storm are fit and firing, but they should feel confident at the same time knowing they held the Storm scoreless in a memorable 14-0 victory back in Round 15.

Defensively, the Eels are more than capable of keeping this close, but from a betting perspective, it’s tough to argue against Melbourne’s outstanding record on the back of a loss.

Like the Roosters, the Storm rarely lose back-to-back games, evident in their impressive 4-0 record following a previous defeat.

Melbourne also seems to save its best footy for Queensland playing to a perfect 8-0 record in the Sunshine State, so go ahead and take the Storm in a close one.

Tip: Back the Storm 1-12 @ $2.95

The Rabbitohs and the Knights find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum heading into the first round of the finals.

South Sydney recorded its higher ever margin of victory against the Roosters last week in a stunning 60-8 win, while the Knights found themselves on the receiving end of a blowout loss to the Titans that ultimately cost them home field advantage.

It’s safe to say the Bunnies are high on momentum as they hope to make up for last year’s shortcomings and the market well and truly reflects that.

Wayne Bennett’s side fell short of the Raiders in the Prelim last season, a result they can forget all about if they manage to repeat last week’s performance.

On the flip side, the Knights actually defeated the Rabbitohs back in Round 10, so it’s a little confusing to find the line at +8.5 ahead of Sunday’s game.

Newcastle has played to a stunning 8-0 on the back of a loss this season, a trend well worth backing when you consider the Bunnies were listed as pretenders only a fortnight ago after losing to the Bulldog.

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+8.5 Points) @ $2.00

2019

The 2019 NRL Finals get underway this weekend and we are set for four very interesting games of rugby league.

For the second week in a row, the Sydney Roosters and the South Sydney Rabbitohs will do battle and the action continues until Sunday afternoon when the Parramatta Eels host the Brisbane Broncos.

We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and complete 2019 NRL Finals Week 1 tips are below!

https://youtu.be/vcthu47da0k

https://youtu.be/Huf_zi36hSA

The Roosters and the Rabbitohs knew they were destined to meet again in the finals as the pair played out a thriller last Thursday night.

Surprisingly, the Bunnies gained the upper hand with a 16-10 win, largely thanks to a strong second half defensive stand. But even so, the Roosters are still the short-priced favourites on Friday night as the bookies appear to be backing Sydney’s 4-2 record on the back of a previous loss.

These two epic rivals have played 11 finals matches against one another, with the Rabbits earning a 6-5 edge. The Bunnies have also won three of their last five meetings against the Roosters.

The line has been set at 6.5-points for this game, which seems a little high considering Souths have steadied to win three of their last five games. The last four meetings between the Roosters and Rabbitohs have also been decided by no more than 10-points.

South Sydney have hit their stride at the right time, can easily keep this game close if Damien Cook controls keeps the rest of the defence composed. The Rabbitohs’ star hooker currently ranks fourth in total tackles, and although the loss of Sam Burgess hurts, there’s nothing stopping Souths from keeping this game close.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/MtlHjmI_oU0

We got a feel for how this one might play out back in Round 22, only it was the Raiders pulling off a huge upset over the Storm in Melbourne.

Much like last year, the Raiders now find themselves in a similar position to the Sharks a year ago.

Cronulla took care of the Storm at AAMI Park in early August, only to struggle in Week 3 of the finals losing 22-6 on the road.

You could argue Canberra has more spine than last year’s Sharks team, but the Raiders’ loss to the Warriors last week makes it hard to back the Green Machine with confidence.

After a fast start, Canberra’s complete lack of defence cost them in the end as the Raiders missed 40 tackles and committed a handful of skill errors.

To make matters worse, the Raiders are 6-7 on the heels of a previous loss this season. None of that bodes well against a Storm side that has put up 20-points on the Raiders twice this season, not to mention Melbourne’s 10-3 record as the home favourite this season.

The Raiders can be elite defensively on their day, but that still mightn’t be enough against a well-rested Cameron Minster and a handful of the Storm’s young guns. Cameron Smith always saves his best for the finals, so this one really isn’t worth overcomplicating.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win & Over 36.5 Total Match Points @ $2.50

https://youtu.be/1rmZvETAM9s

Saturday night’s game from Brookvale shapes up as perhaps the most fascinating matchup of Finals Week 1.

Cronulla, who snuck into the finals thanks to a commanding 25-8 victory over the Tigers last week, have opened as the favourites on the road due to Manly’s depleted roster.

With so many troops out, the Sea Eagles proved no match for the Eels last week losing 32-16 at Bankwest Stadium. Parramatta dominated in the early goings piling on two tries in the opening 10-minutes, while it took Manly 48-minutes to finally crack the scoreboard.

These two sides met only once earlier in the year with the Sea Eagles walking away 24-14 winners at Shark Park. It was a big game for Jake Trbojevic and Addin Fonua-Blake, both of whom need to step up this week at home.

The Sharks haven’t opened as the away favourite at Brookvale in over a decade, while Manly, on the other hand, hold a 3-3 record as the line underdog this season.

With many big names missing and form completely out the window, your safest bet might be the Total Points market this week. Manly’s last two home games against the Sharks have gone Over the Total, so back this one to be high scoring.

Tip: Over 38.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

https://youtu.be/wIxyUZAXHyI

Parramatta rebounded from their loss to the Broncos with an impressive 32-16 victory over the Sea Eagles at home last week.

The Eels have won three of their last five games, which you can also say for the Broncos despite last weeks concerning 30-14 loss to the Bulldogs.

Like almost every other matchup this weekend, you don’t need to rewind far to find the last meeting between the two.

Brisbane hosted Parramatta at Suncorp only a fortnight ago, a game they won in thrilling extra-time fashion 17-16.

As the odds suggest, the bookies aren’t convinced in the Broncos following last week’s loss, listing them as serious outsiders on the road. Brisbane are 2-1 in this scenario against Parramatta, while the Eels are 7-2 as the home favourite this season.

The Eels are one of the most diverse sides in the competition capable of beating a team in more ways than one. Maiki Sivo draws plenty of attention from opposing defences, which then leaves Blake Ferguson open on the right-hand side.

Brisbane have done well to make it this far, but this is still a very young side with little finals experience. If the Broncos get off to one of their notorious slow starts, this could turn ugly.

Tip: Back the Eels 13+ @ $2.90

2018

The 2018 NRL Finals are here and we are set for four fascinating games this weekend.

It all gets underway with a potential Grand Final Preview between the Melbourne Storm and the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Friday night and continues until Sunday afternoon when the Brisbane Broncos host the St George Illawarra Dragons.

We have analysed all four games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Finals Week 1 tips can be found below!

The Storm may have relinquished the minor premiership last weekend, but this is still a very talented outfit that can’t be taken lightly.

We saw last Friday night against the Panthers how vulnerable Melbourne are without some of their biggest playmakers, but they are expected to boast a full squad in their qualifying final against the Rabbitohs and this should see the Storm of old return.

For the Rabbitohs, last week was a chance to regain some much-needed momentum heading into the finals, and the Bunnies did just that against a miserable looking Tigers side.

Souths piled on 51-points against Wests, but more importantly shared the ball around in expert fashion.

Eight different Rabbitohs players cracked the scoreboard, while Damien Cook looked unstoppable.

Speaking of Cook, his match up with Cameron Smith this week is just one minor storyline to watch this week.

The Storm have won four of their last five meetings against the Bunnies, but the Rabbitohs got the better of Craig Bellamy’s side in Round 21, walking away 30-20 victors at home.

A trip to AAMI Park is a much tougher task this week though, especially since South’s have failed to win their last two road games in Brisbane and Canberra.

Still, it appears the bookies aren’t sold on the Storm.

Melbourne have opened at $1.80, while the Bunnies are out to just $2.00.

South Sydney are 0-7 as the underdog vs. Melbourne, and unless Greg Inglis can rewind the clock and produce something brilliant, this looks a bit beyond the Rabbitohs, especially in what could be Billy Slater’s final game in front of the hometown fans.

Tip: Back the Storm 1-12 @ $2.88

Same Game Multi: Storm 1-12, Storm Over 3.5 Tries, Dale Finucane Anytime Try Scorer

One of these teams is not like the other.

The Warriors look deadly right now, and you could perhaps go as far as saying New Zealand are the most dangerous team in the finals.

Penrith, well last week’s win over an understrength Storm side was nice, but there’s still a lot of questions left to answer after a rocky final eight weeks of the home/away season.

Since this is an elimination final, the Panthers will rest easy knowing they hold home-ground advantage, but that basically means zilch against a team like the Warriors.

Stephen Kearney’s side won eight of their 12 away games during the year, and although the Kiwis open as the underdogs, New Zealand’s 6-1 record as the away underdog over the last 12 months suggests they are the team to back.

Luckily for punters, you don’t have to rewind very far to find the last meeting between these two.

Penrith traveled to Mt. Smart Stadium only a fortnight ago, a game that saw them surrender 36-points in a dismal defensive effort around their own line.

Punters also won’t need a reminder of who led the league in tries during the regular season.

David Fusitu’a has looked even more dangerous over the last month, registering a hat-trick against the Panthers in Round 24, and adding another to his tally last week against the Raiders.

For the Panthers to keep not only Fusitu’a quiet, but also Solomone Kata and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, they’ll have to play the defensive game of their lives.

Penrith have held the upper-hand over New Zealand in recent history, winning three of the last five, but there’s simply too much speed and athleticism between the Warriors back-three for the Panthers to contain this week.

Tip: Back New Zealand Warriors To Win @ $2.15

Same Game Multi: Warriors To Win, Roger Tuivasa-Scheck Anytime Try Scorer, Total Penrith Panthers Points: Under 19.5

There’s a lot riding on this game for the Roosters.

The minor premiership is safe, but after an expensive offseason of signings, anything less than an actual actual premiership could be deemed as a failure.

You probably can’t say the same for Cronulla.

Nobody expected the Sharks to finish Top 4 this year, but with perhaps the most complete roster in the league, Shane Flanagan’s side are just as good a premiership chance as anybody this month.

Of course, that’s what makes this weekend’s second qualifying final so exciting.

These two sides have met just once this year, a game the Roosters won comfortably 28-10, but after a strong second half to the season, Cronulla are certainly capable of an upset at Allianz.

If the Sharks are to trump the Roosters, they’ll need to squeeze every little bit of their premiership experience into this game.

Cronulla went 5-2 as the away underdog during the regular season, but more importantly, hold a 4-2 record as the away underdog against Sydney.

Not for the first time, this game will come down to the likes of Paul Gallen, and as we all know, he’ll be up for the fight – literally.

The Sharks bullied and outmuscled the Storm at AAMI Park three weeks ago, playing stingy defence and relying on big runs from the likes of Valentine Holmes. That’s the exact game we should expect from Cronulla on Saturday night.

As for the Roosters, there’s plenty of experience on this side, and Cooper Cronk will no doubt have his troops ready for battle.

Still, Sydney have been careless with the footy in recent weeks, and missed tackles against this Sharks side will be costly.

This could easily be the closest game of the weekend, but it’s one the Sharks should win.

Tip: Back the Sharks To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Sharks To Win, Valentine Holmes Anytime Try Scorer, First Half Betting: Sydney Roosters

The Dragons enjoyed a cruisy week against the Knights to close out the home/away season, but they had to be watching with bated breath as the Broncos pummeled Manly at home on Sunday afternoon.

Brisbane’s season has been up and down, choc-full of inconsistencies and worrying signs on attack, but it appears coach Wayne Bennett has lit a spark underneath wingers Corey Oates and Jamayne Isaako.

Both of those players figure to give the Dragons headaches this weekend, and in front of what will be a raucous crowd at Suncorp, St. George’s defence is really going to feel the pressure.

The Dragons should find some confidence in the fact captain Gareth Widdop returns to the side, though.

It takes the spotlight off Ben Hunt, but also adds some much needed leadership to a side that is by far the biggest worry of the remaining eight teams.

Head-to-head, the Broncos have won four of the last five meetings between the two, but the Dragons got the upper-hand on Brisbane back in Round 1, opening the season with a 34-12 victory.

Things have changed a lot since then though, and if the Dragons are to repeat their success, they’ll need to find some life on attack, and in particular, the kicking game.

Unfortunately, keeping up with the Broncos fast-paced attack is no easy task, and as if Issako and Oates weren’t scary enough, there’s also players like Anthony Milford to worry about.

We’ve been waiting for the Dragons to revert back to the team they were in May/June for quite some time, but it’s yet to happen.

As for the Broncos, they’ve taken that extra step and now look like a serious contender.

Tip: Back the Broncos 13+ @ $2.10

Same Game Multi: Broncos To Win, Corey Oates Anytime Try Scorer, Under 41.5 Total Match Points

2017

The NRL regular season is in the books and the 2017 NRL Finals get underway this weekend.

The Melbourne Storm won the NRL Minor Premiership in a canter and they are dominant premiership favourites, but anything can happen in the NRL Finals and there are sure to be some surprising results over the next four weeks.

There are four interesting games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2017 NRL Finals Week 1 tips can be found below.

This is a massive game for both these sides as the winner will secure a week off and a direct passage to a preliminary final.

The Sydney Roosters won the most recent game played between these two sides and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Sydney have been far from impressive in recent weeks – they only recorded narrow wins over the Wests Tigers, Cronulla Sharks and Gold Coast Titans – but they are a side that has generally gone to another level when they take on the best sides in the competition.

The Roosters have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a profit, but they are a very poor 3-8 against the line in this scenario.

The Brisbane Broncos secured a top four finish with their win over the North Queensland Cowboys and the Parramatta Eels have been the only side to trouble them over the past couple of months.

Winning away from home has been something of an issue for the Broncos this season and they have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs, but they are 3-1-1 against the line in this scenario.

There really is nothing between these two sides and I expect to see a repeat of the arm-wrestle we saw the last time that they did battle, which makes the Broncos an attractive proposition to beat the line with a start of 3.5 points.

Back Brisbane Broncos To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)

The Melbourne Storm are clear NRL Premiership favourites and they are easily the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend.

Melbourne have not lost a game since they were beaten by the Parramata Eels in July, but they went into that clash without their State Origin stars and a host of other regular starters.

The Storm have taken all their rivals before them this season and it is really tough to envision a scenario in which they don’t make the NRL Grand Final.

Melbourne have won 11 of their past 14 games as home favourites, but they are still only 6-8 against the line in this scenario.

The Parramatta Eels have been something of a revelation in the NRL this season and their only loss in the past two months came at the hands of the Newcastle Knights.

Their massive win over the Brisbane Broncos a fortnight ago showed that they are capable of beating the best teams in the competition and they are a team that should be suited to finals football.

They have won three of their past six games as away underdogs, but they are only 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have gotten just about right, but their is still value to be round in the Total Points betting market.

Backing the Under in games involving either of these teams this season has been a winning betting play and that looks unlikely to change in the NRL Finals.

Back Under 38.5 Points

This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend.

The Manly Sea Eagles gave the Penrith Panthers an absolute flogging last weekend and it is no surprise that they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Manly have been one of the trickiest sides in the NRL to get a read on week-to-week – sometimes they look like genuine world-beaters and than produce an absolute stinker the next week.

They have won eight of their past 12 games as favourites, but they are 4-8 against the line in this scenario.

The wheels have fallen off the Panthers wagon in the past fortnight.

Penrith were one of the form teams in the NRL two weeks ago, but they have since suffered two poor defeats and have been plauged by off-field issues surrounding the future of Matt Moylan.

This will be a big test of the mental strength of Penrith, but it does make them a tricky side to analyse from a betting perspective.

They have won only two of their past seven games as underdogs for a loss and their record against the line in this scenario is not much better.

These are two teams that are very tough to trust from a betting standpoint and at this stage I am keen to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

The two most recent NRL Premiers will do battle in this elimination final.

The Cronulla Sharks have not been particularly impressive in recent weeks, but they will still start this clash with the North Queensland Cowboys as clear favourites.

Cronulla have won the past four games played between these two sides, but they were far from convincing in their two wins over the Cowboys this season.

The Sharks have won only five of their past ten games as home favourites this season and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 1-9.

The loss of Johnathan Thurston has really been felt by the Cowboys over the past couple of months and they are lucky to have made the NRL Finals – it was only a St George Illawarra Dragons choke that ensured their presence in September.

While they have won only one of their past six games, the Cowboys have not been disgraced in any of their defeats and it has been a lack of execution inside their own 20 metres that has let them down in recent weeks.

The Cowboys have won only three of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are an impressive 6-2 against the line in this scenario.

Cronulla are no sure-thing to keep alive their title defence and the Cowboys are a good bet to beat the line with a start of eight points.

Back North Queensland To Beat The Line (+8 Points)

2016

It’s finally here, the 2016 NRL Finals with four scheduled matches in Week 1 including two elimination quarter finals with eight teams still in the hunt for the NRL Premiership.

The NRL finally got rid of the controversial McIntyre system in 2011 and since 2012 they have used this much fairer method, which gives the teams that finish in the top four a genuine advantage.

Everything is on the line in the Brisbane vs Titans clash on Friday night and the Penrith vs Bulldogs do-or-die showdown on Sunday with the losers of each knocked out of the premiership race.

Second plays third in the first on Saturday night with the Raiders hosting the Sharks, before the Minor Premiers Melbourne take on the reigning Premiers North Queensland at AAMI Park – the winners of each earning a week’s rest.

Footy finals kick off in a must-win Queensland Derby up in Brisbane with last year’s Grand Final runners-up Brisbane hosting little brothers the Titans in a sure-to-be sell-out at the old Lang Park.

After the good Round 25 win over Melbourne, the Broncos did lots wrong in the first quarter of their final regular season game against the Roosters last Thursday before fighting back to secure fifth spot on the ladder.

The Titans meanwhile play in their second all-Queensland clash in as many weeks after losing 32 – 16 to the Cowboys last week, but secured a spot in the Top 8 after the Tigers were knocked out by the Raiders.

Brisbane chase their sixth win on the trot so have all the momentum going into this and their finals experience far surpasses that of the Gold Coast who make their first post-season appearance since 2010. This is only the third time in club history they’ve qualified for the Finals Series.

The stats are in favour of the Broncos too who have won the past four meetings between these two clubs.

The Titans have won only three times from 16 games played at Suncorp in the NRL era, but can the inclusion of fullback Jarryd Hayne give them a shot at an upset? His errors last week suggest perhaps not.

Add the fact Brisbane have made the second least errors of any club in the comp this season and the Titans are facing an uphill battle to atone for their 40 – 32 loss when the two last met in the finals back in 2009.

Back the Broncos to Win by 6 – 10 points @$5.25

The definite surprise package of this season has been Canberra who finished-up second on the ladder and get a chance to progress straight to the preliminary finals with a win over the Sharks here.

The Raiders are in blistering form and chase their 11^th straight win when they host Cronulla in the nation’s capital on Saturday evening.

While Canberra come in on the hot streak, finals footy is an all-together different arena pressure wise and how they stack up under that pressure will be key to their chances of getting the week’s rest.

Earlier in the season the Sharks strung together the most wins of any club this year, but heading into the finals they have been on a slippery downward slide and have won just one of their last six matches.

Last week the Storm put 20 points on Cronulla (26 – 6) and the Sharks really need to be improving off that if they don’t want to host a semi-final in Week 2, but they have won both their games played at this venue so they know how to win here.

When these two met last month the Raiders enjoyed a 30 – 14 victory and the odds suggest a similar result on Saturday with Canberra (118) having scored more tries this season than any other club including the Sharks (99).

Canberra also finished up the regular 2016 season with the most line-breaks (124) and try-assists (86), but they will have to watch off-loads from the Sharks who lead their hosts in that department (304 – 233) for the season.

If the Sharks’ backs get back to their early season form they’ll make a game of it, but the Canberra backline is pretty imposing.

Wait to hear whether Raiders fullback Jack Wighton survives the NRL judiciary on Tuesday night, but even so the club are looking hard to stop.

Raiders to Beat The Line (-2.5 @ $1.92)

In Round 26 the Storm wrapped-up the 2016 Minor Premiership with their big win over the Sharks and they now get to play at home in Melbourne on Saturday night taking on the Cows in what many are tipping as a Grand Final preview.

North Queensland also enjoyed a confidence-boosting 32 – 16 win over the Titans last week, but their rivals in Week 1 will be tougher to beat as they’ve discovered over the season losing both their previous 2016 games to the Storm.

No club has secured back-to-back Premierships in the NRL era (since 1998), with the last team to do it being Brisbane (1997-1998) with their first under the Super League.

But it’s not the NRL Grand Final yet and North Queensland are looking for the away win here to get next week off before popping back up in the prelims in a fortnight.

The stats between these two clubs for the season are tightly matched including: Tries (Cowboys 98 – Storm 97); Line Breaks (Storm 113 – Cowboys 108); and Try Assists (Storm 81 – Cowboys 76).

The Storm’s defence last week though was some of their best of the season and if they can build on that, they can salute for the punters on Saturday adding to their imposing 22 – 10 head-to-head winning form over NQ.

That said, the North Queensland boys never go down without a fight and their outsider’s price in betting looks the best value of the week.

Back the Cowboys to Win @ $2.10

The second Week 1 knock-out has the sixth-placed Penrith club taking on the seventh-ranked Bulldogs at Allianz where there is real no genuine “home advantage” between these two in a rematch of the 2014 preliminary finals.

The Panthers finished off the regular season on a high with their 36 – 6 win over Manly, while Canterbury left lots to be desired going down 28 – 10 to the out-of-form Rabbitohs.

Momentum can be key heading into the finals, and that is firmly on Penrith’s side here.

The poor recent defensive efforts from the Dogs of late has seen them lose their last three straight games and has them as underdogs in betting up against the Panthers who chase their sixth win on the trot.

The stats show Canterbury have won three of the past four games played between these two, but form franks figures in this one especially with the Dogs still without the injured Sam Perrett (neck).

Penrith to Beat The Line (-5.5 @ $1.90)