The 2025 NRL finals get underway this weekend with four intriguing match-ups in Melbourne, Auckland, Sydney and Canberra.
The 2025 NRL finals series kicks off on Friday night with a qualifying final grudge match between injury-hit Melbourne Storm and the wobbling Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park.
The Storm have won nine of their last 10 against the Bulldogs, including a hard-fought 20-14 result in Melbourne just three weeks ago.
Second-placed Melbourne has endured less than an ideal fortnight since, however. The Storm were blown off the park in the second half in a 40-10 loss to the Roosters, then were uncharacteristically ragged in a 30-14 loss their traditional bunnies the Broncos.
Compounding matters, Jahrome Hughes broke his arm 25 minutes into his return and Ryan Papenhuyzen is out with concussion.
Tyran Wishart steps back into Melbourne’s No.7 hotseat, while Nick Meaney lines up at fullback which sees Joe Chan named at centre (though Jack Howarth lurks in the reserves). Harry Grant returns from suspension, pushing Bronson Garlick to the bench. Stefano Utoikamanu is back from a week’s rest.
The Bulldogs cruised to a 28-4 win over a NSW Cup-strength Penrith side then were lapped 24-6 by Cronulla in last Saturday’s dead-rubber. Going into the playoffs on a 2-4 run is less than ideal for a team that lost only four of its first 18 games.
The Bulldogs are missing first-choice backs Marcelo Montoya and Bronson Xerri (on top of Jacob Kiraz’s ongoing absence), brining Jethro Rinakama and Blake Wilson onto the wings with Enari Tuala moving to centre.
The finals ledger between the clubs stands 3-2 in the Bulldogs’ favour. The Storm won the 2012 grand final but the Bulldogs sent them packing from the 2014 finals with an elimination final upset.
The Bulldogs haven’t won a finals game since a golden point eclipse of St George Illawarra in the 2015 elimination final. Meanwhile, bare facts are – whatever the reason – they have struggled to consistently play their best football since Lachlan Galvin’s controversial arrival.
The blue-and-whites could also be very vulnerable on their inexperienced flanks up against the aerial threat of Xavier Coates and Will Warbrick.
The Storm have played 12 post-season matches in the past five seasons – and despite the Hughes and Papenhuyzen setbacks, it’s hard to see them getting rolled at AAMI Park. Expect Cam Munster and Grant to go up a gear in trademark big-match style.
SGM: STORM WIN / UNDER 38.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER COATES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.61
The flagging Warriors are the rank outsiders of the 2025 NRL finals’ opening weekend despite boasting home-ground advantage, welcoming four-time defending champs Penrith Panthers to Auckland for an elimination final on Saturday.
The Warriors lost five of their last seven regular-season games – despite playing just one Top 8 rival during that period. The scorelines flattered them in their defeats at home to Parramatta (26-22) and away to Manly (27-26) in the last two rounds.
The ball control and discipline that underpinned their surprise early-season charge has dissipated, while they are a team sorely lacking strike.
Andrew Webster has named the most conservative line-up possible, plugging the centre gap left by Rocco Berry injury with veteran back-rower Kurt Capewell. Wayde Egan returns at Sam Healey’s expense, while Jackson Ford is back from suspension as an injured Eddie Ieremia-Toeava drops out.
The Panthers rallied from last at the end of Round 12 into the top four with nine straight wins. But consecutive golden point losses to the Storm and Raiders, followed by basically forfeiting two points by fielding a ‘B’ team against the Bulldogs, consigned them to an elimination road trip.
The premiers coasted to a 40-20 win over the struggling Dragons in Wollongong on Saturday.
Brian To’o and Liam Martin return from a fortnight’s rest, but Mitch Kenny is out with Luke Sommerton to fill in at hooker. Paul Alamoti has retained a wing spot ahead of Thomas Jenkins.
The Warriors have won just one of their last 10 against the Panthers – a Magic Round boilover in 2024. The Panthers are 3-0 against the Warriors in finals matches, including a 27-12 elimination final win in 2018 and a 32-6 qualifying final rout in 2023.
The Warriors have won three of their four home finals in the club’s history, but they have won only two of their last seven at Mount Smart despite routinely selling out the ground. Webster appears to have picked a line-up designed to out-grind Penrith…a strategy that seems doomed to fail.
The Panthers are on a 12-match winning streak in finals matches and will be fired up for what would represent the greatest achievement yet of their dynasty: becoming the first team to win the competition from seventh.
The Warriors have pulled off some of the great finals boilovers in their time…but those were fortified by individuals with rare brilliance, an area where their current squad is the least equipped in the finals.
SGM: PANTHERS WIN / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / PAUL ALAMOTI & CASEY McLEAN TO HAVE 2 OR MORE TRIES COMBINED / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $14.00
Cronulla Sharks and Sydney Roosters both carry some impressive late-season momentum into this elimination final showdown in the Shire on Saturday night.
The under-the-radar Sharks finished fifth with seven wins from their last eight games – overwhelmingly Newcastle 40-16 and cruising to a 24-6 dead-rubber win over Canterbury since their Round 25 bye.
But with the stakes higher, do the Sharks – often dubbed flat-track bullies – have another gear to go to? They have won just two of 12 finals matches since their 2016 grand final triumph.
Nicho Hynes received a judiciary let-off and will be rejoined by Braydon Trindall in the halves. Briton Nikora is named in the reserves but should move into the 17 after serving a three-game ban.
Only two eighth-placed teams have eliminated the fifth-placed side since the current finals format was readopted in 2012, but the Roosters are arguably the most attractive eighth-placed outfit since Jarryd Hayne’s 2009 Parramatta Eels.
The Roosters have won five of their last six, recovering from a 30-10 blip against rejuvenated Parramatta with blockbusting wins over Melbourne (40-10) and Souths (36-6).
Sam Walker and James Tedesco have been on fire, while convert sensation Mark Nawaqanitawase has gone to another level with seven tries in the past two weeks.
The Roosters have the luxury of naming an unchanged 17, with Nat Butcher (knee) their only likely first-choice player unavailable.
The clubs have split their last six matches three apiece. The 2025 ledger is square, with the Roosters powering to a 46-12 win in Gosford in Round 12 minus their Origin contingent, before the Sharks responded impressively 31-18 at home in Round 20.
The Roosters downed the Sharks in the 2018 qualifying final (21-12) and 2023 elimination final (13-12).
The Roosters are just 3-7 in the post-season since last taking out the title in 2019, but their game-breaking quotient provides a sizeable advantage in a contest where they should at least match the Sharks’ pack.
Hynes will again be under scrutiny after past failures in finals football and at Origin level – and the Roosters’ big guns’ big-match credentials need no embellishment.
SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / MARK NAWAQANITAWASE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BILLY SMITH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $95.35
The best has been scheduled for last in week one of the finals as the minor premiership-winning Canberra Raiders host the in-form Brisbane Broncos on Sunday afternoon – the clubs’ first finals encounter in 30 years.
The 19-5 Raiders finished four points clear of the field, despite running out a second-string team that was overwhelmed 62-24 by the Dolphins in the final round.
Ricky Stuart’s side won 12 of their previous 13 games with the likes of Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weeks growing in stature.
The Raiders welcome back their rested contingent, as well as centre Sebastian Kris, who sat out their Round 26 win over Wests Tigers. Xavier Savage is their only first-choice player unavailable – his spot filled by impressive rookie Savelio Tamale in the past two weeks.
In danger of missing the finals after a 22-2 loss in Melbourne in Round 23, the Broncos surged to fourth with four straight high-scoring wins over the Dolphins, Knights, Cowboys and Storm.
Reece Walsh’s blistering form spike was the catalyst for the charge, while Payne Haas has been incomparable up front.
There’s still no sign of Adam Reynolds for the Broncos, so Ben Hunt and Billy Walters will continue to steer the ship in the halves.
Origin centre Gehamat Shibasaki returns after being stood down last week, with Deine Mariner reverting to the wing and Jesse Arthars dropping out. Jack Gosiewski could be a late inclusion after being named in the reserves.
The Raiders have won four of their last five against the Broncos at GIO Stadium, including a 32-22 statement in Round 2 this season.
Canberra is 6-6 in finals matches under Ricky Stuart. Brisbane has played just one finals series in the past five seasons, culminating in a heart-breaking grand final loss to Penrith in 2023.
The well-rested Raiders have played just one fellow finalist in the past three months (an epic golden point victory over the Panthers in Round 25), which does put them under a bit of pressure. The Broncos have momentum, but they’ve also had to be up for a month.
Walsh’s rocks-or-diamonds nature could swing the contest either way, but the balance across the park the Raiders possess sees them head in as deserving $1.68 favourites in what shapes as barnburner.
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ETHAN STRANGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.57
The best has been scheduled for last in week one of the finals as the minor premiership-winning Canberra Raiders host the in-form Brisbane Broncos on Sunday afternoon – the clubs’ first finals encounter in 30 years.
The 19-5 Raiders finished four points clear of the field, despite running out a second-string team that was overwhelmed 62-24 by the Dolphins in the final round.
Ricky Stuart’s side won 12 of their previous 13 games with the likes of Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weeks growing in stature.
The Raiders welcome back their rested contingent, as well as centre Sebastian Kris, who sat out their Round 26 win over Wests Tigers. Xavier Savage is their only first-choice player unavailable – his spot filled by impressive rookie Savelio Tamale in the past two weeks.
In danger of missing the finals after a 22-2 loss in Melbourne in Round 23, the Broncos surged to fourth with four straight high-scoring wins over the Dolphins, Knights, Cowboys and Storm.
Reece Walsh’s blistering form spike was the catalyst for the charge, while Payne Haas has been incomparable up front.
There’s still no sign of Adam Reynolds for the Broncos, so Ben Hunt and Billy Walters will continue to steer the ship in the halves.
Origin centre Gehamat Shibasaki returns after being stood down last week, with Deine Mariner reverting to the wing and Jesse Arthars dropping out. Jack Gosiewski could be a late inclusion after being named in the reserves.
The Raiders have won four of their last five against the Broncos at GIO Stadium, including a 32-22 statement in Round 2 this season.
Canberra is 6-6 in finals matches under Ricky Stuart. Brisbane has played just one finals series in the past five seasons, culminating in a heart-breaking grand final loss to Penrith in 2023.
The well-rested Raiders have played just one fellow finalist in the past three months (an epic golden point victory over the Panthers in Round 25), which does put them under a bit of pressure. The Broncos have momentum, but they’ve also had to be up for a month.
Walsh’s rocks-or-diamonds nature could swing the contest either way, but the balance across the park the Raiders possess sees them head in as deserving $1.68 favourites in what shapes as barnburner.
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ETHAN STRANGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.57