The 2025 NRL preliminary finals recreate two epic grand final match-ups of the past decade.
Melbourne Storm host Cronulla Sharks on Friday night, while Brisbane Broncos and Penrith Panthers square off in a Suncorp Stadium blockbuster on Sunday afternoon.
Melbourne Storm are win one away from their 11th grand final in 20 seasons, welcoming in-form dark horses Cronulla Sharks to AAMI Park.
Navigating another injury setback to marquee No.7 Jahrome Hughes, the second-placed Storm outlasted the Bulldogs 26-18 in a qualifying final thriller to book the week off.
Jonah Pezet slotted into the halfback role beautifully, while the Storm scored two tries in the last 15 minutes to overturn a deficit and get the job done – but they looked far from infallible.
Hughes has been named to return – just three weeks after fracturing his forearm – with Pezet dropping out, while Ryan Papenhuyzen and Shawn Blore are also back after missing the Bulldogs clash. Nick Meaney reverts to centre, with Grant Anderson and Joe Chan dropping out of the 17.
The fifth-placed Sharks have defensively outmuscled dangerous attacking forces Sydney Roosters (20-10) and the Raiders (32-12) to carve out back-to-back sudden-death upsets.
Their performance in Canberra was especially impressive after being pegged back to 12-all early in the second half. Addin Fonua-Blake has been immense up front against vaunted packs, while maligned playmaker Nicho Hynes stood up impressively against the Raiders and Blayke Brailey is on fire.
The Sharks’ only change sees Oregon Kaufusi come onto the bench for Tom Hazelton, who lasted only four minutes before being concussed in Canberra.
The Storm have won eight of their last 11 against the Sharks, including a 37-10 beatdown in an AAMI Park qualifying final last year.
But the last six encounters have been split three apiece. This season the Sharks pulled off a gutsy 31-26 win at home in Round 11, while the Storm cruised to a 30-6 victory in Melbourne six weeks later.
The Storm are a somewhat modest 6-5 in preliminary finals since 2011. The Sharks’ last prelim victory was against the Cowboys in 2016, before going on to beat the Storm in the grand final to secure their only premiership.
The reassembling of Melbourne’s all-star spine quartet – assuming Hughes and Papenhuyzen are fully fit – shapes as the decisive factor here.
The Sharks match up well across the park, but they need Hynes and Braydon Trindall to dominate rather than chime in with highlights…and that’s a significant step up for the pair with the stakes so high, in hostile territory against a team brimming with winning finals experience.
SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / SHARKS OVER 16.5 TOTAL POINTS / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RONALDO MULITALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $33.69
A week shy of two years since they produced one of the great grand finals, Brisbane Broncos meet Penrith Panthers in a mouth-watering preliminary final at Suncorp Stadium.
The fourth-placed Broncos have been lying in wait since pulling off an incredible qualifying final comeback against the Raiders.
Falling 28-12 behind after Reece Walsh and Pat Carrigan were sin-binned in the second half, the Walsh-powered Broncos rallied to force the game into extra-time before Ben Hunt landed a golden point field goal in the 93rd minute.
The epic win was tempered slightly by Carrigan’s one-match ban, but the Broncos have been boosted by Adam Reynolds’ return at halfback with Ezra Mam also coming back via the bench. Hunt shifts to five-eighth with Billy Walters suffering an ACL injury.
Tyson Smoothy moves to Carrigan’s lock spot and Xavier Willison comes onto the bench. Selwyn Cobbo, injured in the same game as Reynolds and Mam, lurks in the reserves.
The seventh-placed Panthers are aiming to become the first team from outside the top four to reach a grand final since the 2017 Cowboys.
After a torrid, scrappy 24-8 elimination final win over the Warriors in Auckland, the four-time champs put on a first-half masterclass to thrash the Bulldogs last Sunday.
The Panthers destroyed the Bulldogs on both edges to race out to a 40-6 lead, before taking the foot off the gas in a 46-26 result. Nathan Cleary was unsurprisingly the chief orchestrator, while Brian To’o and Paul Alamoti were sensational on the flanks and finished with five tries between them.
Penrith is unchanged with Mitch Kenny making a successful return last week, and Liam Martin and Casey McLean cleared of injuries that saw them leave the field early against the Bulldogs.
The Panthers have won nine of their last 10 against the Broncos, with the only loss a 13-12 result in early-2023 at Penrith. The Panthers burst out of their March-April struggles with a 32-8 Magic Round win over the Broncos in Round 9.
Prior to the 2023 grand final, the clubs’ last finals encounter saw the Broncos win a 2017 semi-final at Suncorp 13-6.
The Broncos have timed their run beautifully in an up-and-down season, and they boast the necessary firepower to tip the Panthers up if Walsh fires again. But Carrigan is a big out, while there has to be question marks over an underdone Reynolds’ effectiveness.
The Panthers have won a ridiculous 14 straight finals matches and should find a way in what shapes as an instant classic.
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / PAUL ALAMOTI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BLAIZE TALAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $87.40
2024
NRL Preliminary Final weekend presents two seemingly lopsided contests as Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers aim to parlay their dominant week one performances into a long-projected 2024 NRL Grand Final showdown.
But after strong semi-final bounce-backs, can Sydney Roosters or Cronulla Sharks spring a boilover?
Melbourne Storm are $1.28 favourites to qualify for their fifth Grand Final in nine seasons – and first since 2020 – as they prepare to host a Sydney Roosters side appearing in their first preliminary final since winning back-to-back premierships in 2018-19.
The Storm were hammered 38-4 by Penrith at this stage last year but are a considerably more formidable proposition in 2024 after surging to the minor premiership and decimating Cronulla 37-10 in the qualifying final a fortnight ago.
Dally M favourite Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster and hat-trick hooker Harry Grant were dominant against the Sharks, with the Storm producing a 23-0 second half.
But the unheralded support cast – the likes of Trent Loiero, Josh King, Jack Howarth and Eliesa Katoa – have proved just as valuable as Melbourne’s blue-chip spine.
The Roosters crashed 30-10 at Penrith in week one on the back of a 24-0 first half. But they responded with an emphatic 40-16 Semi Final win against Manly Sea Eagles, who were rocked by two opening-minute HIAs.
Despite their opponents’ misfortune, the Roosters were impressive in putting the foot on the throat.
Firebrand duo Jared Warea-Hargreaves and Victor Radley returned to provide an extra edge to the pack, while James Tedesco was in vintage form with two tries and two try assists.
Arguably the key, though, was Luke Keary taking the reins as chief playmaker, allowing fill-in No.7 Sandon Smith to pick his moments in a much-improved performance.
Both teams have named the same 17, as per their respective last outings.
The clubs have met in the finals five times, with the Roosters ahead in the ledger 3-2 thanks to their 2018 grand final blowout and the 2019 prelim arm-wrestle.
But the Storm have won 10 of the team’s last 11 matches since, including the heavyweights’ last five encounters.
Following last year’s last-minute Semi Final win at AAMI Park via a Will Warbrick try, the Storm won 18-12 in Sydney in Round 7 and 24-8 in Melbourne in Round 20, extending a run of keeping the Roosters to 18 points or less to 10 games.
The Roosters are a much bigger chance than the head-to-head market would suggest.
But it will take something special – their engine-room enforcers have to push the envelope without going too far, while Tedesco, Keary, Joey Manu and co. must chance their arm.
The Storm remain the safe option at home, but this could be a prelim classic.
Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 1-12 @ $3.00
SGM: STORM WIN / ROOSTERS +10.5 / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $35.37
In the highest-stakes meeting ever between 1967 premiership entrants Penrith and Cronulla, three-time reigning premiers the Panthers are $1.25 favourites to qualify for their fifth consecutive NRL Grand Final.
Heading into the finals without quite the same aura as recent seasons, the Panthers made a blistering qualifying final statement by racking up a 24-0 halftime lead against the Roosters before coasting to a 30-10 win.
Nathan Cleary dispelled any concerns over his shoulder injury with a virtuoso performance in his first match in a month.
The rest of the Panthers’ line-up was humming as they powered to a 10th straight playoffs win.
Following a demoralising 37-10 defeat to the Storm in week one – blown off the park in the second stanza after managing to get to 14-10 at the break – the Sharks snapped a seven-match finals losing streak with a 26-18 semi-final victory over North Queensland.
The Sharks got out to a 24-0 halftime advantage via a career-best performance from Braydon Trindall and an authoritative display from the Cronulla pack after being dominated in Melbourne.
But they nervously held on against the resurgent Cowboys and failed to score a try in the second half.
While Trindall was brilliant, under-fire Nicho Hynes was OK at best and appears to have handed the keys to his halves partner, they’ll both need to be on fire to have any chance of shocking the Panthers.
The Panthers have named the same side that trounced the Roosters, though Scott Sorensen is a chance of being a late inclusion – likely at the expense of back-up half Brad Schneider, who retains a bench spot for the time being.
The Sharks are unchanged, with X-factor Daniel Atkinson again languishing as 18th man.
The teams’ recent rivalry results make for disturbing reading for Cronulla.
Penrith has won seven of the last eight encounters, including ruthless shutouts in sole regular-season clashes in 2023 (28-0) and 2024 (42-0).
They have met just once in the post-season, with the Sharks claiming a 21-20 Semi Final thriller in 2018 amid a 10-1 run against the Panthers.
This is the Sharks’ first finals match at Accor Stadium since winning the 2016 grand final, while the Panthers have won 11 of their last 13 at the venue – including six finals victories.
It’s very difficult to make a case for Cronulla here.
The Sharks ultimately made tough work of it against the Cowboys and they are far from shaking off a tortured recent finals history.
The Panthers are big-match specialists, the best defensive side in the comp and have a peaking future Immortal in the No.7.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-11.5) @ $1.85
SGM: PANTHERS BY 21-30 / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAROME LUAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $70.71
2023
A monster NRL preliminary weekend awaits with a pair of runaway favourites hosting dangerous underdogs who are coming off stirring semi-final victories.
Melbourne Storm have crawled to the penultimate week of the season but can never be counted out – even against the might of the threepeat-chasing Penrith Panthers.
The Warriors juggernaut found top gear again in Auckland and will bank on getting plenty of support in Brisbane against the red-hot Broncos.
The teams who enjoyed the week off have won 16 of the last 22 preliminary finals, but one side in each of the last two seasons who have taken the long route have come away with a prelim victory.
It’s unprecedented for Melbourne Storm to go into a finals match – or any match – as a $5.00 outsider during Craig Bellamy’s 21-season reign.
But that’s indicative of the task ahead of them against the rampant, ruthless Penrith Panthers at Accor Stadium on Friday night.
The third-placed Storm won their last four regular-season games before crashing to a 26-0 qualifying final loss to the Broncos, arguably the club’s worst playoffs display under Bellamy.
But with Jahrome Hughes, Xavier Coates and Ryan Papenhuyzen rubbed out by injury, they snatched an 18-13 victory from the Roosters with a sensational 79th-minute try to rookie winger Will Warbrick.
Cameron Munster stepped up in the clutch yet again and Harry Grant was superb after an indifferent display in Brisbane.
The Storm’s only change sees the brilliant Hughes return and excellent fill-in Tyran Wishart move to the bench.
The table-topping, two-time defending champ Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 matches.
They suffocated the Warriors in a 32-6 masterclass in week one with Nathan Cleary and back-up five-eighth Jack Cogger superb, Dylan Edwards typically outstanding and James Fisher-Harris and Liam Martin leading the engine-room assault.
The Panthers have conceded less than 13 points per game in 2023 and also rallied from a sluggish start to craft the NRL’s best attacking record.
Jarome Luai and Izack Tago have both been named to return, with Cogger and Luke Garner going to the interchange and Tyrone Peachey and Zac Hosking dropping out of the 17.
The Panthers have won four of their last five against the Storm – including both 2023 encounters in convincing style.
The champs carved out a 34-16 result in Melbourne in Round 18 and were even more dominant at home in Round 23, winning 26-6. Brian To’o scored three tries across the two games.
The heavyweights have met twice at finals time, with Penrith atoning for the 2020 grand final defeat with a gutsy 10-6 preliminary final triumph at Suncorp Stadium in 2021.
The Storm are through to their 14th prelim in 18 seasons, boasting a 9-4 record at this stage of the season under Craig Bellamy.
The Panthers are 3-1 in prelims under Ivan Cleary, qualifying for the past three grand finals.
Melbourne can’t be underestimated with Munster, Hughes and Grant – three of the absolute elite in the competition – capable of disrupting Penrith’s rhythm with a game-changing play.
But it will take an off night for the Panthers to get rolled here. It shapes as a mismatch in the forwards, while the Storm have limped through the finals so far and have only occasionally shown the top-shelf qualities that have rendered them the NRL’s benchmark for more than a decade and a half.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Win by 11-20 @ $3.05
SGM: UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NATHAN CLEARY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.68
In contrast to the frequent grand finalists squaring off on Friday night, Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors are battling it out for a long-awaited opportunity in the NRL decider.
The powerhouse Broncos are striving to snap a 17-year premiership drought and are appearing in their first finals series since 2019.
The title-less Warriors are beyond week one of the playoffs for the first time since reaching the 2011 grand final.
The second-placed Broncos have won 11 of their last 13 games and advanced past week one for the first time in six years with a comprehensive 26-0 shutout of bogey team Melbourne a fortnight ago.
The Broncos were gritty, aggressive, composed and patient. Their goal-line defence was magnificent, while Reece Walsh – largely well contained to that point – exploded midway through the second half to take the game away from the Storm.
Old fox Adam Reynolds was widely lauded as best on ground.
The Warriors won 10 of their last 12 in the regular season but looked lost without Shaun Johnson and were run ragged in a 32-6 qualifying loss at Penrith.
With Johnson back and in exquisite touch, they destroyed Newcastle 40-10 at the Mt Smart cauldron in one of the great finals performances.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Tohu Harris produced near-career-best displays, while lesser lights Adam Pompey, Rocco Berry, Marcelo Montoya and Jackson Ford stood tall.
The Warriors have the edge in the last 10 encounters with the Broncos, grabbing five wins and a draw. An Origin-depleted Broncos side won a 26-22 thriller in Napier in their sole 2023 clash, however.
For all their top-two heroics, the Broncos have a 7-5 record at Suncorp Stadium this season.
The Warriors’ five-match winning streak in Australia came to an end when a team missing eight top-liners was overrun by the Dolphins at Suncorp in Round 27.
The Broncos won the most recent match in Brisbane – 24-22 late in 2021 – but Suncorp Stadium has regularly been a field of dreams for Warriors and Kiwi Test teams over the past 15 years. Expect a huge contingent of Warriors fans to largely nullify the home-ground advantage.
The Broncos are 2-5 in preliminary finals since 2001 (1-0 in Brisbane), most recently featuring in 2017 with a 30-0 loss in Melbourne.
The Warriors are 2-2 all-time in prelims, winning 2002 and 2011 and going down in 2003 and 2008 – after heading is as underdogs in all four.
Individual finals experience strongly favours the Warriors. Reynolds and Kurt Capewell are the only Broncos to have featured beyond week one in the playoffs, while six Warriors have played in a grand final.
Plenty will have to go right for the Warriors to pull off an upset, but they could not have hoped to come in off a better performance, which if replicated won’t see them fall into the same traps the ill-disciplined Storm did.
The pressure falls squarely back onto the Broncos and if they can’t get on top in the first 20-30 minutes, the Warriors’ belief will grow with so many level-headed veterans in key positions.
Stymieing former teammate Walsh will be a key priority – they laid out the blueprint by blotting out Ponga, but Walsh should get a better platform to attack from – while weathering the Haas, Flegler and Carrigan-led barrage in the opening exchanges is also a huge ask.
This has the all the ingredients for a preliminary final for the ages.
The edge still lies with the Broncos – and they have the ability to win it by plenty – but the Warriors’ value as a $3.90 underdog is hard to ignore in what should be a barnburner.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS BY 1-12 / UNDER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.21
2022
A pair of blowout results in week two have set up a couple of monster NRL preliminary final showdowns, with North Queensland Cowboys hosting Parramatta Eels on Friday night and Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs locking horns in a grand final rematch on Saturday.
The perennial ‘week off or momentum’ debate has dissipated somewhat in recent years, with only one team in the last four years that skipped through to the prelims losing at this stage and from 2004-17, it happened 12 times.
Can the Eels and Rabbitohs buck the recent trend, or do the well-rested Cowboys and Panthers hold the aces this weekend?
North Queensland hosts a preliminary final for the first time as the club shoots for a third grand final berth in eight years that few would have thought possible at the start of 2022.
Parramatta, after snapping a semi-final hoodoo, are in a prelim for the first time since 2009 as the club strives to end a 36-year premiership drought.
The Cowboys were mere seconds away from a week two date with Souths, but a last-gasp Jason Taumalolo try and Valentine Holmes’ long-range field goal in golden point stole a 32-30 rollercoaster at Cronulla.
Tom Dearden was superb on finals debut, veteran centre Peta Hiku had an unbelievable game, and Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter racked up 450 metres between them.
But the Cowboys’ perseverance and ability to ride out some choppy waters and surge back into the contest was the most striking feature of a momentous win.
The Eels fell away in the last 20 minutes at Penrith in week one to lose 27-8, Waqa Blake experiencing a Nathan Cleary-induced nightmare and Mitchell Moses’ HIA exit, leaving the underdogs rudderless with Clint Gutherson and Dylan Brown going missing.
But a dominant engine-room display from the blue-and-golds set the tone for a 40-4 shellacking of the red-hot Raiders at CommBank Stadium.
Six Parramatta forwards managed 150-plus metres, with Shaun Lane and Isaiah Papali’i – well-contained by the Panthers – both topping 200. The Eels also offloaded at will.
With a rock-solid platform to work off, Brown and Gutherson (54 runs and 537 metres between them) were electrifying, while Moses produced multiple moments of brilliance.
It will all come down to which Eels side turns up this Friday in the (forecast to be 25-degree) Townsville heat?
Brad Arthur has called up Bryce Cartwright to the bench at the expense of Makahesi Makatoa. Tom Opacic is in doubt; if he is ruled out, expect the impressive Marata Niukore to move to centre and Nathan Brown to come into the 17, while the Cowboys have named an unchanged side.
North Queensland took out both the clubs’ previous finals clashes as underdogs – a stunning 29-0 boilover against the minor premiership-winning Eels in 2005 and a 24-16 result in the 2017 semi-final as the Cowboys surged to the grand final from eighth.
Scott Drinkwater was on fire as the Cowboys thrashed the Eels 35-4 in Darwin in Round 8, with Kyle Feldt (who has scored 10 tries in his last seven games against the Eels) grabbing a hat-trick. The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight against the Eels in Townsville.
The Cowboys have won eight of their last nine at home and have conceded just 14 points per game at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in 2022.
This is just the Eels’ second match outside Sydney since Round 12.
The Cowboys’ edge defence will prove far harder to exploit than the Raiders’.
Parramatta needs to display some patience and build pressure – simply scoring every time they get a repeat set won’t happen as it did last week against a much more resilient opponent.
North Queensland holds a significant advantage in big-match chops. Incredibly, former Roosters premiership winner Ryan Matterson is the only Parramatta player to have appeared in a preliminary final previously.
The Cowboys boast five grand final winners in Holmes, Taumalolo, Feldt, Townsend and McLean.
North Queensland has defied expectations all season and their collective experience and the home-ground factor should get Todd Payten’s $1.68 favourites into the decider.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.85
SGM: COWBOYS WINS / OVER 42.5 POINTS / PETA HIKU ANYTIME TRY SCORER / ISAIAH PAPALI’I ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $36.07
South Sydney is arguably the NRL rival most capable of upsetting Penrith’s seemingly invulnerable applecart, but the defending champs head into Saturday night’s prelim as runaway $1.36 favourites.
The Panthers got the job done in relatively emphatic style in week one, downing Parramatta 27-8 at home with a late surge.
Nathan Cleary’s masterful kicking game and game-breaking touches down the stretch were too hot for the Eels to handle.
But they were held to one first-half try and trailed with 22 minutes to go, only getting on top after Mitchell Moses’ HIA exit.
Parramatta’s starting props took the fight to James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota – and it’s crucial Tevita Tatola and Mark Nicholls do the same this week to give Souths a chance.
The Rabbitohs have rolled through the finals from seventh, outlasting the injury-stricken Roosters 30-14 with Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker on fire.
They followed that up with a 38-12 win last week by suffocating Cronulla’s edge attack, dominating yardage and exploiting the Sharks’ reshuffled backline with the ball.
The Panthers are far better equipped to adjust if the Rabbitohs employ the same defensive tactics.
Meanwhile, Souths can’t afford to be anywhere near as sloppy as they were against the Sharks, when they committed 14 errors and completed at just 68 percent.
Taane Milne and Lachlan Ilias had breakout games – in admittedly favourable circumstances – but the mercurial Mitchell mixed some shining moments with four errors in an up-and-down night, the Rabbitohs need peak Trell to turn up to unsettle the Panthers.
Meanwhile, Siliva Havili (calf) is out with Jed Cartwright joining Souths’ interchange. The big worries, though, are the injury clouds hanging over Alex Johnston and Jai Arrow.
Tom Burgess is still suspended. Taylan May’s one-week ban sees Charlie Staines get a chance on the big stage for Penrith.
Penrith has won eight of its last nine against Souths. The Rabbitohs’ sole win during that period was a significant one – a 16-10 upset in last year’s qualifying final.
The Panthers took out the initial grand final rematch 26-12 in Round 4 with Issah Yeo and Dylan Edwards prominent.
A side missing Cleary and Luai pipped the essentially full-strength Bunnies 26-22 in Round 23 courtesy of Liam Martin’s late match-winner.
The No.13 battle between Cameron Murray – magnificent last week – and NSW teammate Isaah Yeo will be pivotal, but the Panthers match up favourably with the Rabbitohs in most departments across the team sheet.
The best of Mitchell and Walker is capable of turning this prelim on its head, but realistically too much has to go right for Souths to get behind them with any great confidence.
The Rabbitohs haven’t exactly thrived in close games in 2022, either with their only win by less than eight points coming in a 32-30 win over the Warriors in Magic Round after clocking off in the second half.
The relentless Panthers have conceded just 13 points a game in 2022 and have lost just one game this season where Cleary has played more than 20 minutes.
Patience is their key and they’ll be ready to pounce on the chances the enigmatic Rabbits will inevitably offer up.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $2.00
SGM: PANTHERS BY 11-20 / UNDER 42.5 POINTS / VILIAME KIKAU ANYTIME TRY SCORER / ALEX JOHNSTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $64.65
2021
We’ve officially reached the penultimate weekend of the NRL season, and it is no surprise to find the Storm, Panthers, Rabbitohs and Manly remaining.
This year’s Preliminary Finals is an all-Suncorp Stadium affair, beginning on Friday when the well-rested Bunnies take on last week’s impressive winners Manly in front of a big crowd.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, there will be no love lost when the Storm battle the Panthers in a rematch of last year’s thrilling Grand Final.
With a trip to the decider on the line, read on to find out who we’re tipping in our 2021 NRL Preliminary Finals Preview below!
Manly’s stunning 42-6 win over the Roosters last week has set the stage for an epic Preliminary Final on Friday night against the Rabbitohs.
The Sea Eagles were relentless from start to finish against the wounded Tri-Colours as Tom Trbojevic returned to form with a dominant two-try performance.
Looking to return to the Grand Final for the first time since 2013, Manly will head to Suncorp with momentum firmly on their side, but they’ll likely need more than that against a well-rested South Sydney outfit.
The Bunnies come in fresh from a momentum building win of their own against the Panthers two weeks ago, while they’ll also take comfort in knowing they’ve beaten the Sea Eagles in each of their last four meetings.
For seemingly the first time all year, both sides will head into this contest injury free – meaning we should be treated to another high-scoring game from a betting perspective.
Souths and Manly both rank second and third respectively in points scored this year, while it’s worth noting the last three meetings between the two have all gone Over the Total.
As far as the winner goes though, Souths should emerge victorious if they can exploit Manly’s right edge like the Storm did two weeks ago.
Alex Johnston enjoyed a big game against Manly when they met back in Round 3, and if the Sea Eagles fail to lock down that side of the field, the Rabbitohs should be able to work some magic.
Tip: SGM: Back the Rabbitohs to Win & the Rabbitohs Over 21.5 Total Points @ $2.17
A repeat of last year’s Grand Final looked to be on the cards a few weeks ago, but Penrith’s shock loss to the Bunnies in the Qualifying Round has the Panthers and Storm squaring off one week earlier.
Not only have the Storm firmed into the short-priced favourites to win the Premiership, but they’ve also been installed -8 favourites heading into Saturday’s clash at Suncorp.
Craig Bellamy’s side walked away convincing 37-10 winners over the Panthers in August, while Melbourne’s outstanding 25-5 record at Suncorp speaks for itself.
Digging a little deeper, the Storm should also feel good about their chances after annihilating Manly two weeks ago in the Qualifier.
The Storm dominated the possession count and completed 90% of their sets on the way to a commanding 28-point win – a performance Bellamy will be hoping his side can replicate against a Panthers team that managed only eight points against the Eels last week.
Casting further doubt over Penrith’s chances is the fact Viliame Kikau and Brian To’o are nursing ankle injuries, while the Storm are set to receive a big boost in the form of Josh Addo-Carr.
There’s enough belief within Penrith’s ranks to keep this tight, but with the Storm boasting a league-best 17-7 record at the line this year, it’s hard to argue with the reigning champs.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-8 Points) @ $1.90
2020
Only four teams remain with two weeks remaining as we countdown to a massive weekend of Preliminary Finals action.
The Storm are looking to return to the Grand Final for the first time since 2018 and it appears the bookies are giving them every chance against last year’s runner-up, the Raiders, on Friday night.
Penrith will be hoping to move one step closer to adding some more hardware to their cabinet when they take on the Rabbitohs on Saturday.
The Panthers have been almost untouchable all year, but that isn’t to say the Bunnies are no chance after another come-from-behind win last week against the Eels.
With two massive games to look forward to, we’ve got you covered in our 2020 NRL Preliminary Finals Preview below!
The Storm and the Raiders find themselves in a similar position to where they were last year, only this time around, Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart are set to square off against one another.
Melbourne has enjoyed a week off in preparation for their sixth consecutive Preliminary Final after defeating the Eels by 12 points in the Qualifier at Suncorp a fortnight ago.
The Storm’s 7-0 record at Suncorp dating back to 2018 is reason enough to explain the short odds on offer, but they will have their work cut out against a Canberra side hungry to return to the Grand Final.
The Raiders pulled off one of the most impressive wins in club history last week in a nail-biting 22-18 defeat over the Roosters.
Nobody gave the Green Machine a chance against the reigning premiers, and while it wasn’t pretty at times, the result is certainly one the Raiders can build on heading into Friday’s game against another NRL juggernaut.
It’s safe to say these two sides typically put on a show whenever they get together.
Three of the last four games have been decided by no more than a try, which again explains the Storm laying -6 at the line.
The Raiders actually beat Melbourne to qualify for the Prelim last year, although they will be hungry to atone for their 20-14 loss to the Storm back in Round 9.
Canberra are set to field a similar side to the one that beat the Roosters last week, while the Storm seem confident Cameron Munster can play through his knee injury.
Backing against the Storm up in Queensland is tough, but we’ve seen the Raiders come through time and time again on the road this season.
Canberra has been a very profitable betting play as the away underdog covering in five of their last six games and five of their last eight games against the Storm.
This should be another game for the archives, so don’t be surprised if there isn’t much in it.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $2.00
The Panthers find themselves back in the Preliminary Final for the first time since 2014 as they hope to extend their record-breaking winning streak to 21 on Saturday against the Rabbitohs.
Fresh from a week off, Ivan Cleary’s side has been installed as the short-priced favourites with Ladbrokes bookmakers coming off a 29-28 victory over the Roosters a fortnight ago.
The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, are perhaps the most dangerous side remaining after recording their third consecutive double-digit victory last week, this time over the Eels.
South Sydney had their backs against the wall trailing 18-6 at half-time but showed enormous courage and determination to not only erase the deficit, but also outscore the Eels 24-6 in the second half.
Wayne Bennett’s men lost to the Panthers 20-12 when these two sides last met back in Round 7, but a lot has obviously changed since then.
The Bunnies are operating like a well-oiled machine now that is playing with a real sense of belief, while they also hold an experience edge over the Panthers after playing in last year’s Preliminary Final against the Raiders.
It would come as no surprise to watch the Panthers win, but there really isn’t as much separating these two sides as the current market suggests.
The Rabbitohs are a perfect 3-0 as the away underdog at the line against Penrith and their recent form suggests they are capable of matching the Panthers on the scoreboard.
Whether a week off helps or hinders Penrith remains to be seen, so take the Rabbitohs to at least keep this tight.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $2.00
2019
We are set for two outstanding Preliminary Finals in the NRL this weekend.
The Canberra Raiders will host the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Friday night and have the chance to qualify for their first Grand Final since 1994, while the Sydney Roosters and the Melbourne Storm will do battle in a rematch of last year’s Grand Final on Saturday.
Who will meet in the 2019 NRL Grand Final?
We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 NRL Preliminary Finals tips are available!
https://youtu.be/UQcU8_tdAh4
The well-rested Canberra Raiders head into Friday night’s game as 7.5-point favourites with home-field advantage.
This is by far the most important game in the last decade for The Green Machine, but between Canberra and a Grand Final stands a resilient South Sydney team looking to build on last week’s 34-26 victory over Manly.
The Rabbits and Raiders met only once during the home/away season – a game Souths won narrowly 16-12. Coach Wayne Bennett won’t be reading too much into the previous meeting, but he will be looking to employ a similar defensive strategy after holding Canberra scoreless in the first half.
Speaking of defence, that’s exactly what the Raiders are all about. Canberra has allowed the third-fewest points against this season behind the Roosters and Storm and have also held their opponents to an average score of 16-points at home.
The Raiders can expect a sell-out on Friday night, placing enormous pressure on Ricky Stuart’s men to perform. Canberra fans will watch this game with bated breath as they hope to play for the premiership, but this game is far from a given considering the Raiders have lost three of their last four home games.
Souths know how to win on the road, evident in their 8-4 record away from. The Bunnies are also 2-2 as the road underdog at the line this year, while the last five meetings between Canberra and Souths have all gone Under the Total.
If this season has taught us anything, it’s that these two sides are capable of holding their opponents to low scores, so back the double at some value on Friday night.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) & Under 38.5 Total Points @ $2.90
https://youtu.be/JHtQ1X0N3UQ
It’s a Grand Final rematch of epic proportions on Saturday night as the Storm seek revenge for last year’s embarrassing loss.
Melbourne sent a big warning sign to the remaining contenders last week, rebounding from their Week 1 Finals loss to the Raiders with a comforting 32-0 shutout over the Eels at home.
The Storm will now hit the road to take on the reigning premiers as 4.5-point underdogs. The Roosters, meanwhile, have had an extra week to prepare for their Preliminary Final clash after taking care of the Rabbitohs a fortnight ago.
Fans of both clubs will hold fond memories of their two meetings earlier this year. The Roosters won a 21-20 overtime thriller back in Round 6 at AAMI Park, while the Storm got the last laugh in Adelaide winning 14-12.
Considering four of the last five games between these two have been decided by 1-12 points, it’s worth backing the Storm and their 3-2 record as the away underdog at the line against Sydney.
Melbourne will need to knuckle down defensively if they hold hopes of keeping this game close, but the Storm can find confidence in the fact they neutralized Latrell Mitchell and Cooper Cronk during their Round 15 win.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.91
2018
There are only four teams left in the 2018 NRL Premiership race and we are in for two outstanding Preliminary Finals this weekend.
The Cronulla Sharks may be the only team in the NRL that have the wood over the Melbourne Storm and there will be nothing between those two sides on Friday night, while the oldest rivalry in the game continues on Saturday night as the Sydney Roosters take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
Which two sides will meet in the 2018 NRL Grand Final? We have closely analysed both games and our complete 2018 NRL Preliminary Finals tips can be found below!
At home, of course the Storm are favourites, but just what can this Cronulla side bring to the table on Friday night?
Luckily for punters, you don’t have to rewind very far to find the Sharks last win at AAMI Park.
These two met in Round 22, a game Cronulla won 17-14 in wet conditions.
There’s a lot we took away from that game, in particular the Sharks wherewithal to roughen up the Storm with hard hitting tackles and plenty of wide attacking play to stretch the Storm’s defence.
Cronulla also handed Melbourne a defeat back in Round 4, and there was of course the small matter of the 2016 Grand Final, a game the Sharks won in equally gutsy fashion 14-12.
The Storm boast a full-strength side this week, but given their recent history against Cronulla, it’s safe to say this game has developed into a heated rivalry.
Melbourne are 11-3 at home as the head-to-head favourite this season, but more importantly, the Sharks are a so-so 4-4 as the away underdog.
With Billy Slater potentially playing his last game, this is one the Storm should be up for, however there is one other talented fullback taking the field this week: Valentine Holmes.
The gun 23-year old scored a crucial try during the Sharks win last month, and the battle between the two Queensland representatives should prove to be a fascinating watch.
As far as the winner goes, it’s really going to come down to who can play disciplined footy.
The Sharks gave up 12 penalties back in Round 22, while the Storm committed 11 ball-handling errors.
If Cronulla can show up and rattle the Storm with some big hits from the likes of Paul Gallen, the Sharks should take the crowd out of this game.
A week off can be great for some teams and dangerous for others, it’s up to the Sharks to make the Storm nervous early.
Tip: Back the Sharks 1-12 @ $4.00
Same Game Multi: Sharks To Win, First Team to Score a Try: Sharks, Edrick Lee Anytime Try Scorer
Likewise, the Roosters and the Rabbitohs are pretty familiar with each other, having last met in Round 22.
Sydney pinched that game by four-points, while the Bunnies got the edge on the tri-colours earlier in the season back in Round 6.
The common theme in both of those meetings has been the battle for possession, which for the Roosters, could spell bad news this week.
Despite the close scoreline, South Sydney looked in total control during last week’s one-point win over the Dragons, particularly in the second half.
Scoring a try in the 55th minute, Adam Reynolds was huge for the Bunnies, also nailing all three of his set-shots.
Reynolds’ strong form should be a worrying sign for the Roosters, however their head-to-head record suggests otherwise.
Owning an 8-4 record, Sydney have been impressive as the home favourites this year, while the Rabbitohs have posted a dismal 1-3 record as the away underdog.
Since we’re talking numbers, the Roosters will also have to make do without centre Latrell Mitchell this week.
The Origin star was ruled out following his crusher tackle during the Sharks win a week ago, leaving Sydney without one of their biggest on-field leaders in the middle alongside suspended front-rower Dylan Napa.
On the other hand, the Rabbitohs boast a completely fit and healthy squad this week, and it’s now up to Reynolds to take care of the Roosters other key leader, Cooper Cronk.
With a hard fought, gutsy win over the Dragons last week, the Rabbitohs look like the dark horse out of the four remaining teams.
We can’t forget how easily they piled on the points three weeks ago against the Tigers, a theme we saw on numerous occasions during the year.
It’s up to Reynolds, Greg Inglis and Damien Cook now to lead their team all the way.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs To Win @ $2.15
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs To Win, Adam Reynolds Anytime Try Scorer, Total Match Points: 21-30
2017
There are now only four teams left in contention for the 2017 NRL Premiership and we are set for two outstanding Preliminary Finals this weekend.
The Melbourne Storm have been the best side in the NRL all season long and they will go into their Friday Night Clash with the Brisbane Broncos as clear favourites, while the North Queensland Cowboys are clear outsiders to continue their fairytale run through the 2017 NRL Finals.
Which two teams will meet in the 2017 NRL Grand Final? We have analysed both games and our 2017 Preliminary Finals tips can be found below.
The Melbourne Storm have set the benchmark all season long in the NRL and they are clear favourites to dominate for yet another Grand Final.
Melbourne have not lost a game with their full-strength team since their shock defeat at the hands of the Gold Coast Titans in round 10 and they head into this preliminary final on an eight-game winning streak.
The Storm have had the measure of the majority of teams in the NRL in recent history, but this is especially the case with the Brisbane Broncos.
Melbourne have won six of the past eight games played between these two sides and the Storm beat the Broncos by 30 points when they met at Suncorp Stadium in June.
They have won 11 of their past 14 games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 5-9 against the line in this scenario and the Parramatta Eels showed that they are not invincible.
The Brisbane Broncos have qualified for the preliminary finals, but it is fair to say that they have not been particularly impressive over the last month.
Brisbane were lucky to get as close as they did when they went down to the Sydney Roosters in their qualifying final and they did enough to beat the Penrith Panthers last weekend, but didn’t put them away when they had the chance to ice the game in the second half.
The Broncos will take confidence from the fact that they beat Melbourne in Melbourne in both 2015 and 2016 and they will be buoyed by the return of captain Darius Boyd.
Brisbane have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs, but they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario and they have generally not been disgraced on the road.
There is no doubt that Melbourne will be incredibly tough to beat, but it would not surprise if this game was closer than the market expects and the Broncos are a good bet to beat the line with a healthy start.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+10.5 Points)
The North Queensland Cowboys have made plenty of fans with their tough NRL Finals run to date, but the market suggests that their season will come to an end at the hands of the Sydney Roosters on Saturday night.
The Sydney Roosters earnt their place in the preliminary final with their late win over the Brisbane Broncos in the first week of the NRL Finals and their performance in that game was better than the final scoreline suggested.
They have won their past four games by less than a converted try and have played some inconsistent rugby league in that time, but they do look like a side that can go to another level when challenged by the best teams in the competition.
The Roosters have won four of their past five games against the Cowboys and they have not lost to their preliminary finals rival in Sydney since 2012.
They have won ten of their past 12 games as home favourites for a profit this season, but interestingly they are only 3-9 against the line in this scenario.
Even if wasn’t for a meltdown from the St George Illawarra Dragons, the Cowboys would not even be in the NRL Finals but they have taken advantage of their opportunity with two impressive performances.
The Cowboys showed plenty of toughness and grit to beat the Cronulla Sharks in their Elimination Final clash and that was present against the Parramatta Eels as well, but it was combined with some classy rugby league.
Michael Morgan has gone to another level since Johnathan Thurston was ruled out for the rest of the season and if Morgan, Lachlan Coote, Jake Granville and Jason Taumalolo all fire the Cowboys are capable of beating any team in this competition.
North Queensland have now won five of their past ten games as away underdogs for a bit profit and they are a most impressive 8-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Cowboys go into this clash with a genuine chance to record another upset win and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of eight points.
Back North Queensland To Beat The Line (+8 Points)
2016
It has been a truly fascinating season in the NRL and there are intriguing storylines surrounding all four sides that remain in premiership contention.
The North Queensland Cowboys kept alive their chances of winning back-to-back premierships with their incredible golden point victory over the Brisbane Broncos and they face a Cronulla Sharks outfit that is desperate to deliver the club a maiden premiership.
Melbourne remain premiership favourites, but they must see off a Canberra Raiders outfit that is playing a scintillating brand of football.
Both preliminary finals are set to be fascinating betting affairs and you can find our tips for both games below!
Cronulla may have the home ground advantage, but it is the North Queensland Cowboys that will start this preliminary final as favourites.
North Queensland bounced back from their poor effort against the Melbourne Storm to beat the Brisbane Broncos in another golden point thriller and once again they were able to show an incredible amount of composure during key moments.
The scary thing for the Sharks is that the Cowboys were not anywhere close to their best against the Broncos and it is highly unlikely that fullback Lachlan Coote will play as badly as he did last Friday night.
North Queensland will start this clash as favourites, but they have proven to be an inconsistent outfit away from home this season.
They have won just five of their ten games as away favourites this season and they have won just six of their past 15 games not in front of their home fans.
Cronulla earnt their week off with a fighting victory over the Canberra Raiders in the opening weekend of the finals.
The Sharks play the sort of grinding rugby league that is perfect for the finals and it is very easy to see them frustrating the Cowboys in this clash.
Paul Gallen will be back after missing the first week of the finals, but the big question will be whether coach Stuart Flanagan selects Chad Townsend.
Flanagan benched Townsend during the first week of the finals and there is little doubt that they played better rugby league without him on the paddock.
Cronulla have been nothing short of outstanding with the home ground advantage this season and they still have that despite the fact that this game will be played at Shark Park.
The Sharks may never have a better opportunity to win a maiden NRL Premiership and they are a good bet to keep their chances alive on Friday night.
Back Cronulla To Win @ $2.15
What a game this clash will be!
Many experts were quick to write the Melbourne Storm off at the start of the NRL season, but they have been nothing short of outstanding in 2016 and they will start this preliminary final as clear favourites.
Melbourne are another side that play a style of football that is perfect for the finals and they were too consistent for the Cowboys in the first week of the finals.
They will take a similar conservative game-plan into this clash with the Raiders and it could be the perfect counter to a Canberra outfit that does not have a great deal of big-game experience.
Melbourne have been very tough to beat in front of their home fans this season and they have won 10 of their past 12 games as home favourites, while they are 6-6 against the line in this scenario.
Canberra have truly been a revelation in 2016 and the club is now one game away from their first Grand Final since 1994.
The Raiders lacked composure at key times during their qualifying final loss at the hands of Cronulla, but they were always in control against Penrith last Saturday night,
This is a team that is playing with a great deal of confidence and they have a number of genuine game-breakers that are more than capable of turning a game on its head in just a single play.
Canberra have proven to be a winning betting proposition as away underdogs this season and they have an excellent record of 5-1 against the line in this situation.
I have no doubt that this match will be closer than the current betting market suggests and I am keen to back the Raiders with a start of 7.5 points.
Back Canberra To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)