2018 NRL Round 12 Preview

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail

It was another controversial round in the NRL last weekend and the biff returned for the first time in a number of seasons!

We are set for more excitement this weekend and there are a host of big games spread right across the round.

We have analysed every game set to take place and our complete 2018 NRL Round 12 tips can be found below.

Brisbane Broncos Vs Parramatta Eels

Thursday 24 May, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

The Brisbane Broncos overcame a horror injury toll to record an upset win over the Sydney Roosters last weekend and they will go into this clash with the Parramatta Eels as clear favourites.

There was plenty to like about the performance of the Broncos and they showed plenty of character to bounce back from their horror defeat at the hands of the Manly Sea Eagles.

Brisbane have won six of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 3-1-4 against the line in this scenario.

The Eels suffered their third loss on the trot when they went down to the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they have still won only two games this season.

Parramatta have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario and they have won their past two games against the Broncos.

Stringing together quality performances has been an issue for the Broncos and I am keen to take them on in this contest.

Back Parramatta To Cover The Line (+6.5 Points)

Canberra Raiders Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Friday 25 May, 6:00pm, GIO Stadium

The Manly Sea Eagles are back on track after recording back-to-back wins, but it is the Canberra Raiders that will still start this clash as favourites.

Canberra have not been disgraced in recent weeks against either the Cronulla Sharks or the St George Illawarra Dragons, but they have been unable to finish off games.

The Raiders have won only six of their past 12 games  as home favourites and they are a poor 4-8 against the line in this scenario.

Manly made it two wins on the trot with a comprehensive defeat of the Melbourne Storm, but they will go into this clash without Api Koroisau and Dylan Walker following their roles in last Saturday night’s brawl.

The Sea Eagles have won two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

Defence has generally been an issue for both these sides this season – although Manly were excellent against the Storm – and backing the Over in games involving either of these teams has been a profitable betting play.

Back Over 41.5 Points

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Melbourne Storm

Friday 25 May, 7:55pm, 1300SMILES Stadium

The Melbourne Storm struggled badly without Cameron Smith last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the North Queensland Cowboys as favourites.

Smith will be back for the Storm this weekend and is a big inclusion for a side that lacked structure without him.

Melbourne have dominated their recent meetings with the Cowboys and they have won the past seven games played between the two sides, which includes a comfortable win earlier this season.

The Storm have won six of their past eight games as away favourites and they have covered the line in five of those wins.

North Queensland looked as though they had stolen victory with a late Michael Morgan field goal against the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend, but a costly late penalty saw them denied a must-needed win.

The season is not over for the Cowboys just yet, but they desperately need to start winning games if they are going to be any chance of making the NRL Finals.

The Cowboys have won only one of their past five games as home underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.

There is no doubt that the market continues to overrate the Cowboys and the line of 3.5 points will not be enough.

Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-3.5 Points)

Sydney Roosters Vs Gold Coast Titans

Saturday 26 May, 3:00pm, Central Coast Stadium

The Gold Coast Titans were able to end their losing streak last weekend, but it is still the Sydney Roosters that will go into this clash as favourites.

Sydney flew out of the blocks against the Brisbane Broncos and really looked set to record a big win, but a host of defensive errors let down and they lost a game they should have won.

The Roosters have elected to take their home game to Central Coast Stadium and they have a simply shocking record at this venue.

They have won only one of their past ten games at the venue – although that win did come at the hands of the Titans.

The Titans maintained their composure at key moments to beat the Newcastle Knights last weekend, but they are still a tough side to trust from a betting perspective.

The Gold Coast have won only one of their past 12 games as away underdogs and they are a poor 3-9 against the line in this scenario.

This is another clash where the value does lie in the Total Points betting market.

The Under has saluted in nine of the past 13 games played by the Titans and has also been a profitable betting play in games involving the Roosters.

Back Under 47.5 Points

New Zealand Warriors Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday 26 May, 5:35pm, Mt Smart Stadium

This is set to be one of the most interesting games of the weekend.

The New Zealand Warriors recorded a big win over the South Sydney Rabbitohs in the opening round of the season, but there is no doubt that that the Rabbitohs have improved significantly since then.

New Zealand have struggled for consistency in recent weeks and they weren’t overly impressive in their win over the Parramatta Eels last weekend.

The Warriors have won five of their past eight games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins.

They required a late penalty to do so, but the Rabbitohs were able to make it three wins on the trot with their victory over the North Queensland Cowboys and they have also won five of their past six games.

South Sydney have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are an impressive 6-2 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Penrith Panthers Vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Saturday 26 May, 7:35pm, Panthers Stadium

This is a top-of-the-table clash between two teams that have defied expectations in 2018 to date.

The St George Illawarra Dragons returned to winning form with a tough win over the Canberra Raiders and they will go into this clash with the Penrith Panthers as favourites.

Winning away from home continues to be something of an issue for the Dragons and they have won only one of their past six games as away favourites for a big loss.

The Penrith Panthers ground out a win over the Wests Tigers last weekend and they are a side that continues to fly under the radar.

Penrith are always very tough to beat in front of their home fans at Panthers Stadium and they have won ten of their past 11 matches at the venue for a clear profit.

Taking on the Dragons on the road has been a winning play and the Panthers do appeal at their current odds of $2.10.

Back Penrith To Win @ $2.10

Newcastle Knights Vs Cronulla Sharks

Sunday 27 May, 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

The Cronulla Sharks have recorded five wins on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Newcastle Knights as clear favourites.

Cronulla just continue to grind out victories and they are a team that have shown they are capable of finishing over the top of their rivals.

The Sharks have won four of their past five games as away favourites, but they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

Life without Mitchell Pearce has been tough for the Knights and they have now lost three wins on the trot following their defeat at the hands of the Gold Coast Titans last weekend.

The Knights have not beaten the Sharks since 2014 and they have won only two of their past seven games as home underdogs.

There is no reason that the Sharks can’t continue their winning ways, but once again the margin is unlikely to be large.

Back Cronulla To Win By 1-12 @ $2.80

Wests Tigers Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday 27 May, 4:10pm, ANZ Stadium

The wheels have fallen off the Wests Tigers bus following their impressive start to the season, but they will still start this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as clear favourites.

The Tigers could only manage two points in their defeat against the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they have now lost four of their past five games.

Wests have won only two of their past four games as favourites for a loss and they have been a tough side to trust from a betting perspective in recent weeks.

Canterbury slumped to their fourth loss in five games with another tight loss at the hands of the Cronulla Sharks and they are a better side than their current record suggests.

The Bulldogs have seven of their past 22 games as underdogs for a clear loss and they are 10-12 against the line in this scenario.

Points have proven hard to come by for both these sides this season and backing the Under in games involved in either of these sides has been a highly profitable play.

Back Under 36.5 Points


2017

The State Of Origin season is upon us and that means that there are only four games in the NRL this weekend.

A number of sides will be missing their State Of Origin players – with the Brisbane Broncos most badly effected – and that always makes for an interesting round from a betting perspective.

We have analysed all four games taking place this weekend and our NRL Round 12 tips can be round below.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs Parramatta Eels

Friday 26 May, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium

South Sydney Rabbitohs 16 - Parramatta Eels 22

Both the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Parramatta Eels will go into this clash at close to full-strength as neither have a single player involved in State Of Origin.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs have won only one of their past five games, but they will still go into this clash as favourites following their improved effort against the Melbourne Storm last weekend.

Winning games as favourites has proven to be an issue for the Rabbitohs and they have won only three of their past seven games as favourites for a clear loss.

Parramatta suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they are a team that it is tough to get a read on in 2017.

The Eels have won six of their past 16 games as underdogs for a clear loss and they are a middling 8-8 against the line in this scenario.

It really is difficult to split these two teams and because of that the $2.10 on offer for a Eels victory does stand out as a touch of value.

Back Parramatta To Win @ $2.10

New Zealand Warriors Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 27 May, 5:30pm, Mt Smart Stadium

New Zealand Warriors 28 - Brisbane Broncos 10

The New Zealand Warriors take on a Brisbane Broncos side that is missing five players on State Of Origin duty and it is no surprises that the Warriors will start this clash as favourites.

New Zealand produced another uninspiring performance against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they continue to struggle as home favourites.

They have won only six of their past ten games in this scenario and they are a shocking 1-9 against the line in this scenario.

Brisbane head into this clash on the back of six straight wins and they are a genuine chance of continuing their winning streak – even if they will be missing a number of key players.

The pressure will be on the likes of Ben Hunt, but if he can take control of this clash they are definitely in this contest.

The Broncos have won only one of their past four games as away underdogs, but they are 2-1-1 against the line in this scenario.

Taking on the Warriors at the line continues to be a profitable betting play and I will be doing just that this weekend.

Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+6 Points)

Cronulla Sharks Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Saturday 27 May, 7:30pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium

Cronulla Sharks 9 - Canberra Raiders 8

The Cronulla Sharks made it seven wins from their past eight games with a victory over the North Queensland Cowboys and they will start this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as clear favourites.

Cronulla will be without the likes of James Maloney, Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham and Jack Bird, but the representative retirement of Paul Gallen as well as the surprise snub of Valentine Holmes means that there is still a fair bit of quality in this side.

The Sharks have won six of their past nine games as home favourites, but they are a disappointing 3-6 against the line in this scenario.

Canterbury went down to the Sydney Roosters last Sunday, but their effort was still a massive improvement on their performance against the North Queensland Cowboys.

The Bulldogs have lost their past six games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 1-5 against the line, while they will go into this clash without leaders Josh Jackson and Brett Morris.

The market looks to have got this game just about right, but there is value in the Unders in the Total Points betting market.

It really would surprise if this game ended up being a fairly dour affair and backing the Under has been a profitable betting play in games involving either of these teams this season.

Back Under 38.5 Points

Canberra Raiders Vs Sydney Roosters

Sunday 28 May, 4:00pm, GIO Stadium

Canberra Raiders 24 - Sydney Roosters 16

The Sydney Roosters have struggled badly without Mitchell Pearce in recent seasons and it will be interesting to see how they cope in his absence this weekend.

Canberra ended their losing streak with a fighting victory over the Parramatta Eels and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

The Raiders have won ten of their past 13 games as home favourites and they are 7-6 against the line in this scenario, while they are aided by the fact that Josh Papali is their only player involved in State Of Origin.

The Roosters will also be without Dylan Napa, Aidan Guerra and Blake Ferguson and this will be a serious test of their depth.

Sydney have lost their past six games as away underdogs and they are a poor 2-4 against the line in this scenario.

The Roosters have struggled badly without their stars in the past and this really is an opportunity for Canberra to record back-to-back wins.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)

 


2016

This is the first split round of the 2016 NRL season and a number of teams will be without their representative stars.

This is a big loss for the Brisbane Broncos who will face the Wests Tigers without what will likely be six or seven players, while the North Queensland Cowboys will take on the St George Dragons without inspirational playmaker Johnathan Thurston.

State Of Origin 1 will be played at ANZ Stadium on June 1.

Brisbane Broncos Vs Wests Tigers

Friday 27 May, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane Broncos 18 - Wests Tigers 19

The Brisbane Broncos have an outstanding record against the Wests Tigers and they have lost to the joint venture on just four occasions, but they will go into this clash without a number of their key forwards as well as fullback Darius Boyd as well as winger Corey Oates.

The big benefit for the Broncos is that they still have Ben Hunt, Anthony Milford and Andrew McCollough in their side and they will still start this game as very short favourites.

The Broncos are 11-3 as home favourites in the past 12 months and they are a most impressive 10-4 against the line in this scenario, while they have suffered back-to-back losses just once across this time period.

Wests returned to winning form against the Newcastle Knights last weekend, but they were still not particularly impressive and they obviously face a much tougher challenge against the Brisbane Broncos.

The Tigers have won just two of their past eight games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this situation is a thoroughly average 3-5.

Even an under strength Broncos will prove too strong for the Tigers and they are a good bet to cover the line.

Recommended Bet: Back Brisbane Broncos To Beat The Line (+12 Points)

St George Dragons Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday 28 May, 7:30pm, WIN Stadium

St George Illawarra Dragons 14 - North Queensland Cowboys 10

The St George Illawarra Dragons have not lost three of their past four games against the North Queensland Cowboys and have not beaten them at Win Stadium since 2010, but they take on the Cowboys in a situation where they are always vulnerable – without Johnathan Thurston.

It is no secret that the Cowboys have a very poor record without Thurston in the side, but they did in fact win two out of three games without him last season and they beat the Dragons without their State Of Origin stars.

The Dragons went down to the Rabbitohs last weekend, but they will still start this game as favourites and they have been very solid in this position in the past 12 months.

St George Illawarra have won four of their past five games as home favourites, but their record against the line in this situation is average and they are 3-6 against the line when giving away a start.

The Cowboys have actually won four of their past seven games as away underdogs and their record against the line is a more than profitable 5-2.

North Queensland have enough talent in their side to win without the likes of Johnathan Thurston, Matthew Scott, James Tamou and Michael Morgan and they are a good bet to beat the Dragons this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back North Queensland Cowboys To Win @ $2

Canberra Raiders Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday 29 May, 4:00pm, GIO Stadium

Canberra Raiders 32 - Canterbury Bulldogs 20

This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend as neither team have lost that many players to representative duties.

The Canberra Raiders returned to winning form against the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and on the back of that performance they will start this game as clear favourites.

The issue for the Raiders is that they have been a losing proposition as home favourites for a number of seasons now and in the past 12 months they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

The Bulldogs made it two wins on the trot with a professional performance against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and although they have lost the like of Josh Morris and David Klemmer, they haven’t been as badly effected by State Of Origin as they have been in other years.

Canterbury have an excellent record as away underdogs and they have won four out of their past six games in this scenario.

The $2.25 currently on offer for a Bulldogs victory is huge overs and they are the best value betting play of the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Canterbury Bulldogs To Win @ $2.25

Newcastle Knights Vs Parramatta Eels

Monday 30 May, 7:00pm, Hunter Stadium

The Parramatta Eels have not won a game since they were stripped of all their competition points due to the salary cap drama, but they have an excellent chance to return to winning form against the Newcastle Knights.

The Eels were far from disgraced against the Melbourne Storm and they will go into this game as clear favourites to put a month of turmoil behind them.

Parramatta have proven an incredibly reliable betting proposition as away favourites and they are 4-0 in both head to head as well as line betting in this scenario.

The Knights produced an improved performance against the Tigers last weekend, but they still never looked like winning and are a class below what is required to compete in the NRL.

They have won just one of their past seven games as home underdogs and I can’t see them giving their home supporters anything to smile about this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Parramatta Eels To Beat The Line (-10.5 Points)