It’s a tussle atop the NRL ladder with only ten points separating first from eighth, but with a pair of top-eight clashes to look forward to, we might finally gain some clarity with finals on the horizon.
The bottom eight could also be in for a shakeup with five teams tied on 12 points. Saturday’s game between the Eels and the Broncos could make or break either sides season, while the Roosters also hope to snap their three-game skid.
We’ve previewed all eight games and are confident we’ve found some winners, so be sure to read on below for our entire 2019 NRL Round 14 Preview.
Thursday June 13, 7:50pm, GIO Stadium
A 28-0 shutout over the Tigers last week has the Raiders back inside the top four, but head coach Ricky Stuart has his work cut out for him on Thursday against a Sharks side riding a two-game winning streak.
Cronulla were equally impressive last week disposing of the Eels 42-22 at home. Sharp passes and clever kicks kept Parramatta’s defence guessing, and most importantly, earned the Sharks a much needed to win to remain inside the eight.
These two sides met twice last year with the Sharks stealing the points in Rounds 10 and 19. Cronulla has won four of its last five games over Canberra, but not surprisingly open as the underdog this week on the road.
They say defence wins games, and that’s certainly been the case for the 7-5 Sharks. Cronulla has held their opponent to 20-points or less six times already this year, but unfortunately, the Sharks might meet their match this week against a Raiders side that ranks third in possession and fourth in set completion.
There’s no doubt the Sharks are a finals contender, but they do need to tidy up with the ball in hand. Some fortunate officiating went their way last week, but there’s no getting around the fact Cronulla ranks inside the top five in errors.
As for the Raiders, we should see their 5-2 record as the home favourite come into play this week. The Raiders are 4-3 in front of their home faithful this year, so with some generous odds on offer, back them outright.
Tip: Back the Raiders To Win @ $1.80
Gold Coast Titans
New Zealand Warriors
Friday June 14, 6:00pm, CBus Super Stadium
The scoreboard tells the full story, but the most impressive part of the Titans’ 26-18 win over the Broncos was their ability to weather the storm in the early goings.
Brisbane threatened early in the first half only to come undone against Brian Kelly in the 12th minute. The Titans went on to add two more tries before the main break, while Kelly capped the game off with the decider in the 63rd minute.
The Warriors weren’t quite so fortunate last week against the Storm, falling by 22-points in yet another disappointing display at home. Finals look a big stretch for Stephen Kearney’s side now, although Kiwi fans should feel confident following their blowout Round 4 win over the Titans earlier this year.
From a betting perspective, the market paints the full picture. The Titans have won only one of their last five games against the Warriors, but considering New Zealand are 1-4 on the road this year, this game is a bit of a coin flip.
While there’s plenty of value in the head-to-head market, the Total might be the safest play this week. The last two games between these sides have gone Over the Total, while the Warriors have seen eight of their last 12 road games go Over.
Tip: Over 39.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88
North Queensland Cowboys
Friday June 14, 7:55pm, 1300Smiles Stadium
The bottom half of the ladder is just as scrappy as the top, making Friday’s game between the 11th placed Tigers and the 12th placed Cowboys must-watch TV.
Both sides are tied on 12 points each, and if this game turns out anything like last year’s 20-12 Tigers thriller, we should be in for a real treat.
The Cowboys saw their three-game winning streak come to an end last week as they lost 22-20 against Manly at home. It was hardly a poor performance from Paul Green’s side, but the lack of second-half scoring cost the Cowboys a chance at the points.
Wests coach Michael Maguire has a lot more to worry about following the Tigers’ 28-0 loss to the Raiders. It’s not the first time we’ve seen the Tigers fail to fire this season, and with a paltry 2-4 record as the away underdog in games against the Cowboys, it’s tough to trust Wests to bounce back.
The Cowboys should win this game if their forwards do the talking. North Queensland are the best side in the league when it comes to gaining metres after contact, while the Tigers continue to look vulnerable on the edges.
It’s hard to find faith in North Queensland’s 3-4 record at home this year, but with a 4-1 record as the line favourite in home games over the last 12 months, back the Cowboys to Cover.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 15, 3:00pm, AAMI Park
The Storm put their four-game winning streak on the line this week against a Knights side that has quietly strung together six on the trot.
It’s a battle between first and fifth on the ladder, but for Newcastle, this game could mean the difference between finishing inside the top four or slipping all the way down to seventh.
As if beating the Roosters convincingly a fortnight ago wasn’t enough, the Knights added further promise to their season by polishing off the Rabbitohs 20-12 last Friday night.
Not to be outdone, the Storm have also been ticking all the boxes. Melbourne made short work of the Warriors in Auckland last week, and with a six-game win streak in hand against the Knights, there’s no reason to back against the Storm at home on Saturday.
The Knights last won in Melbourne back in 2015, and although they have the attacking weapons to go toe-to-toe with the Storm on the scoreboard, they might be in for a reality check this week against the best set completion side in the competition.
The Storm have won their last five games over the Knights by an average margin of 21.6 points, and considering they’ve won five games at home by 13+ points over the last 12 months, back Melbourne to win by plenty.
Tip: Back the Storm 13+ @ $2.60
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday June 15, 5:30pm, ANZ Stadium
Back-to-back losses suddenly have the Rabbitohs in jeopardy of slipping down to third on the ladder this week.
South Sydney’s loss to the Knights last Friday came at full strength following Origin, and while the Bunnies came close on the scoreboard, coach Wayne Bennett must feel displeased with his side’s effort outside of the opening and closing 10-minutes.
As for the Panthers, suddenly Penrith looks a worthwhile upset chance. Two wins on the trot have the Panthers clear of wooden spoon territory, but they’ll need to be at their best on the road this week if they wish to make up for their four-point loss to the Rabbits back in Round 7.
Credit where credit is due, Penrith’s pair of wins over Manly and the Roosters weren’t cheap. Defensively the Panthers have been brilliant over the last three weeks holding all three opponents to under 20-points, largely due to the fact they lead the league in tackles.
Of course, with the good comes the bad. The Panthers also lead the league in missed tackles, which should spell trouble against the Bunnies this week. Damien Cook has carved up the middle of the field all season, leading the Bunnies to rank second in points and tries scored.
With a perfect 3-0 record as the home favourite against the Panthers, back South Sydney to win easily.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.90
Saturday June 15, 7:35pm, Western Sydney Stadium
Big game between two inconsistent sides that continue to find new ways to lose.
The Broncos were on the receiving end of an eight-point loss to the Titans at home last week, a result that sees Brisbane back outside the eight.
Parramatta was equally as poor last Saturday falling by 20-points to the Sharks away from home. The Eels are clinging to the eighth spot on the ladder, but with both sides tied at 12-points apiece, a loss this week at home could see either team slip as far down as 12th on the ladder.
Brisbane earned bragging rights over the Eels winning 18-10 at Suncorp last year but considering Saturday’s game will mark their first trip the new and improved Bankwest Stadium, it’s not surprising to see the Broncos open as outsiders.
Anthony Seibold’s side has won three of its last five games against the Eels, but the same problem – slow starts – continues to plague the Broncos.
Brisbane are 3-4 as the away underdog over the last 12 months, while the Eels are 5-1 as the home favourite during the same time span.
Parramatta are also 7-6 on the back of a loss over the last calendar year, so at a backable price, back the Eels straight-up.
Tip: Back the Eels To Win @ $1.80
Manly Sea Eagles
St George-Illawarra Dragons
Sunday June 16, 2:00pm, Brookvale Oval
Des Hasler’s side put an end to their two-game skid last week holding on for a narrow 22-20 win over the Cowboys up North.
Manly still find themselves inside the top eight, but they’ll need to be wary of a Dragons side looking to regain some form after earning a much-needed win themselves last week over the Dogs.
St. George became somewhat of an afterthought during their previous five-game losing streak, but with the competition razor tight, suddenly the Dragons are a win away from rejoining the top eight should results go their way.
With four straight losses to the Dragons, you can expect the Sea Eagles to treat St. George with plenty of respect this week. Manly lost 12-10 to the Dragons back in Round 6, a game that saw the Sea Eagles dominate possession but not the scoreboard.
With the Brookvale advantage this time around, the Sea Eagles have been installed as the favourite to improve on their 4-3 record at home. Despite their recent dominance in this fixture, the Dragons have won only one of their last three trips to face the Sea Eagles away from home.
The bookies have sided with Manly this week, and it’s hard to argue considering the Dragons are 5-5 on the back of a win over the last 12 months. Ben Hunt enjoyed a brilliant week overall last week, but that mightn’t be enough against a Manly side that allow very few cheap opportunities around their own try line.
Tip: Back Manly 1-12 @ $3.10
Sunday June 16, 4:00pm, TBC
Having now lost three straight games, it’s safe to say the reigning premiers have a serious case of the wobbles following last week’s 19-10 loss to the Panthers in Penrith.
Sydney has managed only 32-points across their last three matches, marking Sunday’s game against the Bulldogs a must-win if the Chooks hold any hope of repeating as minor premiers.
The Bulldogs have plenty on the line themselves this week as the cellar dwellers occupy the bottom of the ladder. On their day Canterbury are capable of upsetting anybody, but that wasn’t the case last week as the Dogs lost comfortably to the Dragons at home.
Last year these two played out a 6-0 game in Round 7, adding to the Roosters’ impressive four-game winning streak over the Dogs. Sydney’s recent form has been less than convincing, but keep in mind, the Roosters are 7-3 as the home favourite against the Dogs.
This game really isn’t worth overcomplicating. The game isn’t played on paper, but the Roosters simply have too much talent and experience to allow a fourth game to slip through their fingertips.
Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90
Big things come in small packages. With eight teams on a bye, Round 13’s four game slate featured a huge Rabbitohs upset over the Sharks, followed by a Sunday shocker as the Roosters took down the Tigers.
Looking forward, Round 14 sees all 16 teams return to action, and although lineups will be limited due to Origin duties, the 7th placed Storm taking on the 9th placed Broncos on Sunday shapes up as a can’t-miss.
As always, there’s a range of value to be had ahead of this weekend, and we have analysed each game closely. You can find our complete 2018 NRL Round 14 tips below.
Friday 8 June, 6:00pm, GIO Stadium
Both teams finished Round 12 with a win and will be keen to keep the good times rolling following a week off.
The Panthers come into this one on a three game winning streak, including a huge shocker over the Dragons two week’s ago. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still fighting hard for a spot in the eight.
The Raiders hold the home ground advantage on Friday night, but it may not mean much.
Canberra have been just okay at home, winning four of their seven games, while the Panthers’ 3-2 record on the road sees them enter as the obvious favourite.
These two sides last met back in Round 24 last year, a game the Panthers won away from home 26-22. Nathan Cleary was particularly strong that day, scoring a first-half try and converting all four of his set shots. Making his Origin debut on Wednesday night for NSW, Penrith will need to find that same production elsewhere.
The Panthers hold an impressive 12-6 record in head-to-head markets on the back of a win. The last five encounters between these two teams have been decided by 10-points or less, so the margin market looks good value here.
Back Penrith 1-12 @ $3.10
Gold Coast Titans
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 8 June, 7:55pm, Cbus Super Stadium
By far the biggest surprise of Round 13 was the Rabbitohs triumph over the Sharks. Thanks to Tom Burgess’ brilliance, Souths still find themselves third on the ladder.
As expected, the early odds are heavily in favour of South Sydney following the Titans’ 20-point loss to the Roosters two weeks ago.
Gold Coast are a miserable 5-14 as the head-to-head underdogs over the last 12 months.
Souths dominance over the last five weeks can’t be stressed enough, though – they’ve kept their last five opponents to under 20-points.
To add further confidence, the Rabbitohs have also won three of their past five encounters with the Titans.
Although we should expect some upsets with teams limited due to Origin duties, this probably isn’t the game to back. Since Round 8 South Sydney has been piling on the points, and against a Gold Coast side lacking confidence, this spells another big win.
Back South Sydney 13+ @ $2.20
Manly Sea Eagles
New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 9 June, 3:00pm, AMI Stadium
Talk about unexpected. No one saw Manly’s loss to the Cowboys coming, as Antonio Winterstein tormented the Sea Eagles’ defence for the better part of 80 minutes last week.
Next up: the Warriors. New Zealand’s slow fall from grace continued two week’s ago with a big loss to South Sydney, but a week off should have provided a nice mental break for a team still sitting just inside the Top 4.
The good news for the Warriors is the home ground advantage, but as history shows, nothing is a given against the Sea Eagles.
New Zealand are 4-3 as the head-to-head favourite, but the Warriors haven’t beaten Manly since 2013.
With back-to-back losses to the Raiders and now the Cowboys, the Sea Eagles’ two game losing streak puts them in jeopardy of slipping further towards the bottom of the ladder.
This game is tough to get a read on given the recent history between the two and some spotty form from both sides.
Manly’s 1-6 record away from home makes them a dangerous gamble this week though, one punters should look to steer clear of.
Back New Zealand To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Saturday 9 June, 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
All of a sudden the Roosters look dangerous. Sunday’s gutsy win over the Tigers has them placed sixth on the ladder, and with Origin on this week, a game against a hot/cold looking Knights outfit couldn’t have come at a better time.
For all of their troubles, Newcastle surprised last week with a resounding 30-4 victory over the Eels. Kalyn Ponga bounced back in star-like fashion converting five of his six set shots, an effort which bodes well for a future Origin nomination.
The market is heavily in favour of the Roosters here, and it’s no wonder why. Sydney have won nine of the last 10 encounters between these two.
Punters should be especially careful not to read too much into Newcastle’s win last week, after all, it came against the lowly Eels. To make matters worse, Newcastle sit 2-6 as home underdogs in the head-to-head market.
Despite last week, the Roosters remain a tough read – they’re capable of blowout wins one moment and close, low scoring affairs the next. For those more daring, the margin market looks an interesting play, but tipping Sydney to beat the line seems safe.
Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)
North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 9 June, 7:30pm, TIO Stadium
Now this is a tough one.
The Cowboys looked fierce on attack last week, scoring in quick succession in both the first and second half, but it’s still tough to trust North Queensland, even against the future wooden-spooners.
The Eels, meanwhile, are back to their old tricks. Josh Hoffman’s 74th minute try saved Parra from complete embarrassment against the Knights, but is there really any chance of an upset here at home?
Parramatta’s 3-2 record as the head-to-head underdog in home games might look enticing, but history says stay well away. The Eels have won just three of their past 10 encounters with the Cowboys, having managed just six points against North Queensland in Round 14 last year.
Making things worse, the Eels’ 2-4 record in home games this season doesn’t exactly instill much confidence. Still, with limited squads this week, anything goes, and if there’s going to be an upset, this might be it. Hold on to your money and avoid this one.
Sunday 10 June, 2:00pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium
Sunday kicks off with a bang between the Sharks and the Tigers. Both teams are on the back of narrow losses, and since both have shifted down the ladder, this game packs serious finals implications.
The Sharks came close to pulling off the comeback last weekend against Souths, but the damage was already done in the first half thanks to two unanswered tries.
Wests were also hard done by not to walk away with a win over Sydney, but Daniel Tupou alone was too good for the Tigers.
We’re now left with a potential blockbuster on Sunday, a game that heavily favours the Sharks to return to form.
Cronulla has won four of the last five encounters against Wests, but despite coming in at $1.50, the Sharks’ 4-11 record as line favourites shows there’s some sneaky value in the underdog Tigers.
Having now fallen out of the eight, the Tigers have had a tough run, but there is equal concern when it comes to backing Wests – they are an ugly 2-4 away from home.
These two have played out some pretty close clashes in recent years, with Cronulla getting up 24-22 in Round 15 last year. With that in mind, take the Tigers at the line.
Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)
Sunday 10 June, 4:10pm, AAMI Park
Thanks to the Tigers, the Broncos find themselves back in the eight entering Round 14. The week break should have served Brisbane well following a 18-10 victory over the Eels two week’s ago.
The ladder was equally kind to the Storm, who moved from seventh into fifth with the week off, but Melbourne will need to put up a convincing victory on Sunday if they wish to stay in touch with the Top 4.
This is far and away the game of the round, even if the market looks a little lopsided.
The Storm have been almost unbeatable at home, losing just twice at AAMI Park so far. They’ve also won 12 games as the home head-to-head favourite over the last 12 months.
For Brisbane to win, they need to keep the pressure on the Storm for a full 80-minutes. These two last met in Round 7, a game that saw the Broncos open the scoring within the first five minutes, only to then allow three unanswered tries to the Storm before half time.
Brisbane are 2-8 as the away underdogs vs. the Storm, with their last taste of AAMI Park coming during Week 3 of the Finals last year – a game the Broncos lost 30-0.
Back Melbourne 13+ @ $2.38
St. George Dragons
Monday 11 June, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium
There’s nothing like Monday arvo footy, although it’s hardly a blockbuster. Two teams fresh from a rest meet up at ANZ Stadium, with both looking to bounce back from tough losses in Round 12.
You might be surprised to learn the Dragons have lost their last six against the Bulldogs, with their last win dating all the way back to 2015.
You might also be surprised to learn the Dragons are 7-3 in the head-to-head market on the back of a loss.
Of course, things are different this year, as the Dogs 2-2 record at home suggests, and there’s plenty of reasons this one could be close.
Despite Canterbury losing three of its last four, the Dogs have kept in touch with their opponents, losing by margins of two, four and six points. It’ll be tough to stop one of the Top 5 scoring teams in the league on Sunday, but since the Dragons will be missing a few key components, St. George 1-12 looks like good value.
Back St. George 1-12 @ $2.75
Round 13 of the 2017 NRL season was packed full of entertaining finishes and we are set for another exciting round of action.
The round begins with a Grand Final rematch between the Cronulla Sharks and the Melbourne Storm and there are intriguing story lines in every single game.
We have closely analysed every game set to take place this weekend and you can find our complete 2017 NRL Round 14 tips below.
Thursday 8 June, 7:50pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium
Cronulla Sharks 13 - Melbourne Storm 18
This is the second NRL Grand Final rematch between the Cronulla Sharks and the Melbourne Storm and at this stage they cannot be separated in betting.
Not only is this a Grand Final rematch, but also a top of the table clash and the Sharks could potentially leapfrog Melbourne on top of the table with a big win.
It is Cronulla that go into this clash with the home-ground advantage, but their form away from home has actually been better than their form at Southern Cross Group Stadium.
The Sharks have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are a particularly poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne have won five of their past six games and they will be keen to avenge their loss to the Sharks earlier this season.
The Storm have won 11 of their past 13 games away from home for a big profit and they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne can’t be matched by any side in the NRL when they are at their best and they are the value bet to account for Cronulla this weekend.
Back Melbourne Storm To Win @ $1.90
Manly Sea Eagles
Friday 9 June, 6:00pm, Brookvale Oval
Manly Sea Eagles 18 - Newcastle Knights 14
Manly have won four of their past five games and they will go into this clash with the Newcastle Knights as clear favourites.
The Sea Eagles were poor in the second half against the Canberra Raiders, but they were still able to come away with the victory and they just keep finding a way to win this season.
Manly have won their past six games against the Newcastle Knights and they are 3-2 against the line as home favourites.
Newcastle were no match for the Melbourne Storm last weekend and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against Manly.
The Knights have lost their past ten games as away underdogs and they are a losing 4-6 against the line in this scenario.
These are the games that Manly really need to win to secure a top eight finish and I expect them to get the job done fairly comfortably.
Back Manly To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 9 June, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane Broncos 24 - South Sydney Rabbitohs 18
The Brisbane Broncos are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NRL.
The Broncos have lost two games on the trot, but they were undermanned against the New Zealand Warriors and a touch unlucky against the Sydney Roosters.
Brisbane were definitely lucky to beat South Sydney earlier this season, but they have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites for a narrow profit.
South Sydney went into their bye on the back of a loss to the Parramatta Eels and although they have won only one of their past six games, their form has been as bad as their record suggests.
The Rabbitohs have won four of their last seven games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are a most impressive 6-1 against the line in this scenario.
South Sydney have shown this season that they are capable of competing with the best sides in the competition and they are a great bet to cover the line with a healthy start.
Back South Sydney To Beat The Line (+11.5 Points)
Gold Coast Titans
New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 10 June, 3:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Gold Coast Titans 12 - New Zealand Warriors 34
The Gold Coast Titans have lost two games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash with the New Zealand Warriors as narrow favourites.
It is tough to know what to make of the Titans’ performance against the North Queensland Cowboys as they were brave defensively, but offered very little in attack.
Gold Coast have won only three of their past six games as home favourites for a loss and they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
New Zealand did beat Gold Coast earlier this season, but the Warriors have won just two of their past seven games and continue to be very tough to trust from a betting standpoint.
The Warriors have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
The market looks to have got this clash just about right and this is a game that I am more than happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.
Saturday 10 June, 5:30pm, Carrington Park
Penrith Panthers 24 - Canberra Raiders 20
The Penrith Panthers and Canberra Raiders have arguably been the two most disappointing teams in the NRL this season and this is a vital game for both sides.
Penrith made it three wins on the trot with a demolition job of the Canterbury Bulldogs and it is fair to say that was their best performance of the season to date.
The Panthers have won 13 of their 19 games as favourites to basically break even and they are 10-9 against the line when giving away a start.
Canberra once again suffered a golden point defeat at the hands of Manly last weekend and there really are some severe question marks over this side heading into the second half of the season.
The Raiders have won two of their past five games as underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 5-0 against the line when giving away a start.
This could be a very tight game and I am keen to back the Raiders with the insurance of a 1.5 point start.
Back Canberra To Beat The Line (+1.5 Points)
North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 10 June, 7:30pm, TIO Stadium
Parramatta Eels 6 - North Queensland Cowboys 32
This is a tricky game to analyse from a betting standpoint as the participation of Johnathan Thurston is still up in the air.
The North Queensland Cowboys didn’t need Thurston to beat the Gold Coast Titans last weekend and they have actually played some quality football without Thurston over the past month.
Their worst performance without Thurston came against the Parramatta Eels and they surely can’t play as poorly as they did in that game again.
Parramatta were too good for the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they have now won five of their past seven games.
The Eels have elected to take their home game to TIO Stadium in the Northern Territory and they have actually won all three of their games in Darwin, while the Cowboys did beat the Sydney Roosters at the venue in 2012.
It is tough to get a proper read on this game until we get a clearer indication of Thurston’s injury status and at this stage this is a game that I am happy to stay out of.
Sunday 11 June, 4:00pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Wests Tigers 18 - Sydney Roosters 40
The Wests Tigers have lost four games on the trot and it is the Sydney Roosters that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Sydney survived a late scare to take the two points from their clash with the Brisbane Broncos and they were able to move back into the top four with that victory.
The Roosters have won five of their past seven games as away favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Wests were not disgraced against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend, but they have still not won a game in well over a month.
The Tigers have won three of their past ten games as home underdogs and they really are tough to have any faith in from a betting standpoint.
The real value in this clash is in the Total Points betting market.
The Under has saluted in seven of the past ten home games played by the Tigers and backing the Under in Roosters games has also proven to be a profitable betting play.
Back The Under
St George Dragons
Monday 12 June, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium
Canterbury Bulldogs 16 - St George Illawarra Dragons 2
The Canterbury Bulldogs’ season hit a new low last weekend and it should come as no surprise that the St George Illawarra Dragons will start this clash as clear favourites.
St George made it two wins on the trot when they beat the Wests Tigers on Saturday and their record as favourites this season is outstanding.
The Dragons have won their past seven games as the punter’s elect for a clear profit and they are 2-0 against the line as away underdogs.
Canterbury were nothing short of disgraceful against the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they really are a side that are in the middle of a crossroads.
They have won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit, but it is very tough to trust them on the back of their last-start effort.
This is another game where the value really lies in the Total points betting market.
Scoring points has been a real issue for Canterbury and St George Illawarra are not the type of side that come out and blow away their rivals.
Back The Under
We are now past the halfway mark of the NRL season and there are a number of exciting games set to take place this weekend.
There is plenty of history between the Wests Tigers and South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are set to do battle in a Friday Night Blockbuster before the Sydney Roosters host the Melbourne Storm on Saturday night.
St George and Canterbury will face off in a finals rematch on Sunday afternoon, while the Cronulla Sharks tackle the North Queensland Cowboys in another finals rematch in Monday Night Football.
Thursday 9 June, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane Broncos 26 - Canberra Raiders 18
The Brisbane Broncos have hit the type of form slump that they have not seen since Wayne Bennett returned to the club at the start of last season and they have now lost four out of their past five games.
They had a number of State Of Origin players backing up against the New Zealand Warriors last week, but that was still no excuse for their uninspired performance and they were truly awful on both sides of the football.
They will still go into this game as clear favourites and although that are now a losing head to head betting proposition in this scenario, they remain 9-5 against the line as home favourites.
The Canberra Raiders made it three wins on the trot with their impressive victory over Manly last Friday night and they will go into this contest with a great deal of confidence.
The Raiders are 4-4 as away favourites for a tidy profit, while they have beaten the line in six of their past eight games in this situation.
The line currently on offer for this game does seem excessive and the Raiders can give the Broncos a real scare.
Recommended Bet: Back The Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (+10.5 Points)
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 10 June, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium
Wests Tigers 30 - South Sydney Rabbitohs 14
This is a key game for these sides as they are both coming off losses last weekend.
South Sydney looked as though they had got their season back on track with back-to-back wins over Parramatta and St George Illawarra, but they let slip a golden opportunity to make it three wins on the trot against the Gold Coast Titans.
They will still go into this game as favourites, but they have won just ten of their past 24 games as the punter’s elect and their record against the line when giving away a start is 8-1-15.
Wests Tigers had their own two game winning streak snapped by the Sydney Roosters, but they will go into this game with some confidence.
The Tigers have actually been a profitable team as underdogs across the board over the past 12 months and they have actually performed better without Robbie Farah in the side – with the New South Wales hooker set to start on the bench this weekend.
Taking on the Rabbitohs has generally proven to be a positive play so far this season and there is definitely value in the price available for a Tigers win.
Recommended Bet: Back The Wests Tigers To Win @ $2.65
New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 11 June, 3:00pm, Hunter Stadium
Newcastle Knights 14 - New Zealand Warriors 50
The New Zealand Warriors will go into this game as clear favourites after they produced their best performance of the season to date against the Brisbane Broncos last weekend.
The Warriors showed everybody just what they are capable of with the ball in hand, but their problem has been consistency and they need to do produce that level of football every week to be a genuine force.
New Zealand actually have a surprisingly good record as away favourites and they have beaten the line in three of their four games in this position, but across the board they have not proven to be a profitable betting team either away from home or as favourites.
Newcastle Knights suffered another heavy defeat at the hands of the North Queensland Cowboys and they have now lost seven games on the trot.
They have won just one of their past six games as home favourites, but they are a credible 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Both these sides are incredibly difficult to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this fixture.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 11 June, 5:30pm, TIO Stadium
Parramatta Eels 22 - Gold Coast Titans 12
The Parramatta Eels have struggled against the Gold Coast since the Titans entered the competition in 2007 and they have won just one of the past six games played between the two sides.
Their form since the salary cap drama exploded has been very poor and they only narrowly beat the Knights in their final game before heading on the bye.
The Eels look likely to go into this game as narrow underdogs and they have been a narrow winning proposition in this scenario, but their record against the line is a middling 4-4.
The Titans made it three wins in a row with their thrilling victory over the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are now genuine finals contenders.
Their home form is the only thing stopping Gold Coast from taking the next step and they have won just three of their past 12 games away from home, while this will be the first away game in the past 12 months that they are likely to start as favourites.
What does need to be taken into consideration is their outstanding record against the Eels and they have won six of their past eight games against their rivals as the punter’s elect.
Gold Coast just keep on winning football games and they are a good bet to make it four wins in a row against the struggle Eels.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans To Win @ $1.80
Saturday 11 June, 7:30pm, Allianz Stadium
Sydney Roosters 0 - Melbourne Storm 46
The Melbourne Storm continued their winning run with a typically professional performance against the Penrith Panthers and they are clear favourites to make it six wins on the trot.
Melbourne have really settled into their game plan at this stage of the season and there is plenty of evidence that they will prove far too strong for the out of form Roosters side.
The Storm have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a tidy profile and they are a middling 3-3 against the line.
The return of their big guns has not had the positive effect that was expected for the Sydney Roosters, but they were able to return to winning form against the Wests Tigers last weekend.
Winning games as favourites has not been a problem, but when the market doesn’t expect them to win they don’t and they have lost their past three games as away favourites.
Melbourne have won five of their past nine games by a margin between 1-12 and a similar result looks likely in this fixture.
Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Storm To Win By 1-12 @ $3
Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 12 June, 4:00pm, Brookvale Oval
Manly Sea Eagles 24 - Penrith Panthers 31
This is a crucial game for both sides as they desperately need a win to get themselves back into finals contention.
Manly produced another uninspiring performance against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they are set to go into this clash without the likes of Daly Cherry-Evans, Jamie Lyon, Brenton Lawrence and Steve Matai.
Because of these injuries they will start this game as heavy underdogs and they are an uninspiring 2-4 when given a start in front of their home fans.
Penrith were never able to get into the game against the Melbourne Storm, but this is obviously a much easier assignment.
The Panthers have only start three games as away favourites in the past 12 months and they have lost two of them, while they are 3-14 against the line when given their opposition a start.
This is another match in which it is tough to trust either team from a betting perspective and I am happy to let this game go through to the keeper.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
St George Dragons
Monday 13 June, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium
St George Illawarra Dragons 16 - Canterbury Bulldogs 34
The Canterbury Bulldogs suffered a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Cronulla Sharks last Monday night, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form against the St George Illawarra Dragons.
Canterbury have been fairly inconsistent this season and have struggled defensively at times this season, but they are still 5-2 as away favourites in the past 12 months and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
St George Illawarra beat a highly-depleted North Queensland side before they went on the bye, but stringing together back-to-back wins has been an issue and they have done it on just three occasions in the past 12 months.
The Dragons do have an excellent record at WIN Stadium and they have won their past two games at the venue as underdogs for a sizeable profit, while they have covered the line in five of their nine games this season to date.
Although it is tough to pick the winner, a low-scoring game looks extremely likely in this one and the under has saluted in eight of the past 11 home games played by the Dragons, while the under is 9-5 when the Bulldogs are on the road.
Recommended Bet: Back The Under (38.5 Points)
North Queensland Cowboys
Monday 13 June, 7:00pm, Shark Park
Cronulla Sharks 13 - North Queensland Cowboys 10
This is easily the game of the round in the NRL and could be a Grand Final Preview.
The Sharks are the form team in the competition and they secured their ninth straight victory with a thrilling win over Canterbury last weekend, while the North Queensland Cowboys returned to winning form against the Newcastle Knights and they have won six of their past seven games with a full strength side.
The market cannot separate these two teams and it is easy to see why.
Cronulla have won 10 of their past 12 games in front of their home fans and they have developed Shark Park into a genuine fortress, while the Cowboys have won the past two clashes between the two sides and they beat the Sharks by 39 points in the second round of the finals last year.
The home ground advantage does give the Sharks the edge and when you add in the fact that the Cowboys may elect to rest the likes of Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott, they are definitely the value selection.
Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Win @ $1.90