The 2025 NRL premiership regular season advances past the halfway mark this weekend – and Round 14 features a bevy of pivotal encounters.  

Melbourne and the Dolphins have crucial home assignments against last-start winners on Friday, Cronulla has a home hoodoo to overcome against the high-flying Warriors, and Brisbane is under immense pressure ahead of a Saturday night derby.  

Wests Tigers and Penrith wrap up the Sunday schedule with both clubs desperate for competition points, but all eyes will be on Monday’s showdown between archrivals Canterbury and Parramatta – with Lachie Galvin’s club debut still up in the air.  

Newcastle’s season is hanging by a thread as it prepares to host up-and-down Manly on Thursday.  

Resting Kalyn Ponga after the Origin series opener, the Knights went down 20-6 on the road to St George Illawarra after yet another scoreless first half. Adam O’Brien’s battlers are scoring an NRL-low (by a fair margin) 13.25 points per game and have won only two of their last 10. 

Ponga is back for the Knights, which sees Fletcher Sharpe revert to five-eighth in the halves alongside Jack Cogger. Leo Thompson’s four-game ban gives Brodie Jones a start in the front-row and  Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana a bench debut.  

The 6-6, seventh-placed Sea Eagles have won consecutive games only once in 2025 – in Rounds 3 and 4 – but have carved out dominant wins away against North Queensland (24-6) and Brisbane at home (34-6) either side of a heavy pre-Origin loss to Parramatta.  

Lehi Hopoate has been sensational at fullback in Tom Trbojevic’s absence and Daly Cherry-Evans – under pressure to keep his Queensland spot – remains in vintage form in clubland.  

Jake Trbojevic (concussion) is a big in for Manly, which sees Jazz Tevaga go the bench and Matt Lodge drop out. Toafofoa Sipley comes in for an injured Josh Aloiai.  

The Knights were subjected to a 44-6 beatdown at 4 Pines Park in the clubs’ only 2024 clash, but they have won three of their last four against the Sea Eagles in Newcastle.  

The Knights have lost their last four at home in diabolical fashion. Where their points come from remains a mystery with Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew sidelined, and Ponga in a slump. The Sea Eagles shape as one of the surer things this season as $1.40 favourites.  

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / KNIGHTS UNDER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / TOMMY TALAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / REUBEN GARRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOLUTAU KOULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.29 

Melbourne Storm are hot $1.20 favourites to continue a decade of AAMI Park dominance against North Queensland Cowboys.  

After 12 straight losses to the Storm, the Cowboys have won the teams’ last three clashes – including a 38-30 result in Townsville late last season. But they haven’t won at AAMI Park since the 2015 preliminary final.  

Premiership favourites the Storm sit fourth with a 7-4 record but have been stuck in a win-loss pattern for seven weeks. They grafted out a 28-16 win on the Gold Coast last Saturday while shouldering a heavy Origin load.  

Xavier Coates and Harry Grant return for the Storm after being rested post-Origin, with Sua Faalogo dropping out and Bronson Garlick going to the bench.  

The 5-1-5 Cowboys snapped a three-game winless run with a 32-28 home victory over Wests Tigers, holding on in a nervy finish after letting a 32-4 lead slip away – conceding four tries in the space of 13 minutes during the last quarter of the match.  

Alarmingly, the sixth-placed Cowboys have the second-worst defence in the NRL (26 points per game conceded), which is more than a mild concern coming up against a Storm side boasting the best attack in the competition (33 points per game scored). 

Tip: Back the Storm Over 32.5 Total Points @ $1.94 

SGM: STORM BY 11-20 / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAXSON PAULO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $68.43

An intriguing Suncorp Stadium clash awaits on Friday night as the 10th-placed Dolphins and eighth-placed Dragons strive for some consistency.  

The Dolphins bounced back from a low-scoring loss to the Warriors to take advantage of depleted competition leaders Canterbury in a 44-8 pre-Origin beatdown in Sydney, before enjoying their first bye of 2025.  

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow missed that win while on Origin duty but returns at fullback, with Jake Averillo going back to centre.  

St George Illawarra emerged from a three-match losing run to chalk up a rousing 30-26 away win over the Broncos and a clinical 20-6 defeat of the struggling Knights at home either side of the Round 12 bye.  

Jaydn Su’A’s ankle injury sees Luciano Leilua come into the second-row and Raymond Faitala-Mariner join the bench. Christian Tuipolotu’s return from injury displaces Tyrell Sloan, with Nathan Lawson retained on the other wing.  

The head-to-head is locked at two-all, with the home teams winning each game by at least 14 points. The Dolphins prevailed 38-0 at Kayo Stadium early last season.  

The Dolphins have the edge in the halves with Isaiya Katoa continuing to flourish, while the battle between the fullbacks – with Clint Gutherson consistently inspirational for the Saints and Tabuai-Fidow comparatively flighty for the Dolphins – will be vital.  

An underdog cover appeals here with the Dragons a juicy $2.45 in the head-to-head market.  

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM TO WIN BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHRISTIAN TUIPOLOTU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.82 

Fifth-placed Cronulla hosts the third-placed Warriors in a Saturday evening blockbuster, with the Sharks aiming to respond to a pre-bye capitulation and the Warriors reeling from a devastating injury blow.  

The Sharks’ impressive 5-1 run culminated in a gutsy 31-26 victory over Melbourne in Round 11…before going down 46-12 to a severely depleted Sydney Roosters outfit, despite not having any players on representative duty.  

It was a bewildering display across the board for a team that had not conceded no more than 28 points and scored less than 18 just once prior. Sione Katoa returns from a lengthy injury layoff in time to replace suspended winger Ronaldo Mulitalo, while Teig Wilton is also back from the casualty ward.  

The 9-3 Warriors are a remarkable 6-1 in games decided by a converted try or less and have won six of their last seven. They responded to a dour 16-10 loss to Canberra at home with a thrilling 30-26 victory on the road against Souths, again finding a way to hold on after letting an 18-point lead slip away.  

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad was immense at fullback and Erin Clark again set the tone in the pack, while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck made it five tries in his last five games with a double. But Mitch Barnett’s torn ACL made for a bittersweet afternoon for the club.  

Jackson Ford replaces Barnett in the front-row, while Rocco Berry’s injury sees Kurt Capewell again fill in at centre. Leka Halasima is back into the second-row and tyros Jacob Laban and Tanner Stowers-Smith return to the bench.  

The Warriors have won three of the teams’ last four encounters, including stunning (albeit Shaun Johnson-inspired) comeback upsets in the Shire in 2023 (32-30) and 2024 (30-28).  

Andrew Webster’s side has proved itself as a gritty unit determined to play for each other.  

On 2025 form, you’d back fledgling combination Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita to step up to the plate over the Sharks’ flighty Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall, while Addin Fonua-Blake coming up against his former club adds another edge to what should be an absorbing, super-tight encounter.  

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS WIN / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ROGER TUIVASA-SHECK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE METCALF ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.30 

No team comes into Round 14 under more pressure than the Brisbane Broncos, who have slumped to 11th with six losses from their last seven matches ahead of a home clash with bogey derby rivals Gold Coast Titans.  

After blowing leads against the Panthers, Rabbitohs and Dragons before their Round 12 bye, the Broncos barely turned up in a 34-6 loss on the road against Manly last Saturday – their worst defensive and attacking display of a spiralling season.  

Reece Walsh returns for his first game since Round 7, with Selwyn Cobbo going to the wing and Deine Mariner dropping out. Pat Carrigan starts at lock with Corey Jensen coming in at prop.  

The last-placed Titans provide an opportunity for the Broncos to snare a pressure-relieving win. They have won just one of their last eight games and are conceding an NRL-high, all-too-familiar 30.7 points per game with a points differential 54 points more to the negative than the next-worst team.  

There were some signs of promise in a 28-16 home loss to the Storm last Saturday, but the Titans’ usually freewheeling attack has not produced more than 24 points in their past eight outings.  

AJ Brimson, a late withdrawal with concussion, is 18th man. Allan Fitzgibbon is back on a wing with Phil Sami going to centre after Jojo Fifita broke his hand. Sean Mullany is in at hooker for the injured Sam Verrills. 

The Titans have won their last three against the Broncos, including a 36-34 thriller at Suncorp Stadium and a 46-18 thrashing at Robina in 2024.  

The Broncos are $1.35 favourites giving away a 10.5-point start, but neither side will provide punters with much pre-game confidence. Another high-scorer appears likely, though, with five of the last seven delivering totals of 59 points or more.  

Tip: Back Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: BRONCOS WIN / BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 20+ POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JORDAN RIKI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.05 

South Sydney faces a gruelling Sunday road trip to take on a Canberra side that has surged to the third line of premiership betting.  

The 9-3 Raiders have won eight of their last nine, including gutsy back-to-back road wins over in-form outfits the Warriors (16-10) and Roosters (26-24) in the past fortnight, overturning deficits in both games. They can look forward to a belated first bye after this home assignment.  

Souths’ two-match winning run – beating the Broncos (22-14) and Tigers (22-12) in gritty fashion – came to an end with a 36-30 loss to the Warriors at home on Sunday. But they produced a stirring, Latrell Mitchell-inspired comeback from 30-12 down, while Keaon Koloamatangi was also immense.  

Jamal Fogarty is back for the Raiders after missing the win over the Roosters, while the Rabbitohs have been boosted by the return of Jack Wighton at centre and Cody Walker at five-eighth. Jayden Sullivan moves to the bench.  

The Raiders have had the wood on the Rabbitohs, winning nine of their last 12 clashes – including a 32-12 blowout in Canberra in their only 2024 meeting.  

The Raiders are 5-1 at GIO Stadium this season and Josh Papalii’s record-breaking 319th appearance in the lime green, along with Fogarty’s return, should provide the impetus for another victory in front of a big crowd in the capital.  

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / SAVELIO TAMALE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.16 

Wests Tigers are striving to arrest a three-game slide, but 14th-placed Penrith look poised to make a move up the ladder.  

The Tigers, while navigating the Lachlan Galvin drama, have been obliterated 64-0 by Melbourne, lost a nail-biter to Souths 22-12 and gone down 32-28 to North Queensland after launching a remarkable final-quarter comeback that fell just short.  

Galvin’s departure may provide some relief, but it also ramps up the responsibility on halfback Jarome Luai’s shoulders.  

Latu Fainu makes a long-awaited return on the bench and Jeral Skelton is also back from injury on the bench. Alex Twal (concussion) is out with Tony Sukkar getting a run-on appearance in the pack. Brent Naden and Charlie Staines drop out of the 17. 

After losing five straight, the Panthers have managed three wins and a draw from their last six matches. They predictably went down to Newcastle with their five NSW stars, who were collectively outstanding four days after the Origin opener in a gritty 18-10 win over Parramatta.  

Nathan Cleary was a class above and Dylan Edwards superb at the back in a pressure-relieving victory. Only three points outside the Top 8, the four-time premiers will be eager to record back-to-back wins for the first time in 2025.  

The Tigers have managed three wins from their last eight games against the Panthers, but the champs won 22-6 in Bathurst last season. Expect Cleary, Edwards, Isaah Yeo and co. to wear the teetering Tigers down in a low-scorer.  

Tip: Back the Panthers to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.90 

SGM: PANTHERS WIN / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / TIGERS UNDER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / CASEY McLEAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / STARFORD TO’A ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.63 

Fifteen spots separate Canterbury and Parramatta on the ladder, but the traditional King’s Birthday Monday showdown will inevitably be the most hyped of the round.  

Most interest centres around whether controversial mid-season arrival Lachie Galvin will take the field for the Bulldogs; he was named on an extended bench on Tuesday with Toby Sexton remaining in the No.7.  

The ladder-leading Bulldogs are looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in 2025, with a depleted line-up crashing 44-8 to the Dolphins before last weekend’s bye. 

NSW stars Stephen Crichton and Max King, and injured trio Jacob Kiraz, Kurt Mann and Daniel Suluka-Fifita are all back for the Bulldogs.  

The Eels are second-last but a very different proposition to the Mitch Moses-less outfit that started the year 0-4. After emphatic wins over Newcastle (28-6) and Manly (30-10) – the latter while Moses was on Origin duty – they lost few admirers in an 18-10 defeat to premiers Penrith on Sunday.  

Will Penisini (concussion) returns for the Eels, with Jordan Samrani going to the bench and Joash Papalii dropping out.  

The Bulldogs’ patchy 16-8 defeat of the Eels in Round 3 gave them two consecutive wins in the rivalry for the first time since 2015.  

Another tight contest looms on Monday, with Moses, Dylan Brown, Zac Lomax and a Parramatta line-up displaying ever-increasing backbone under Jason Ryles more than capable of making it an uncomfortable afternoon for the heavyweights.  

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: BULLDOGS BY 1-12 / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / JOSH ADDO-CARR ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VILIAME KIKAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $36.15 

2024

The availability of State of Origin players clouds several NRL Round 14 clashes – all of which could have a significant impact on a congested ladder.

The Dolphins, Canberra Raiders and Sydney Roosters have the bye.

Consistency hasn’t been St George Illawarra’s strong suit under Shane Flanagan, but some gutsy wins have kept the Dragons in the frame for a finals return.

A second win over the battling Wests Tigers in less than two months would allow them to gain a further foothold in the Top 8 race.

After a horrendous 44-12 loss to Canterbury in Round 12 after leading at halftime, the Saints were in trouble at 10-0 down in the Penrith wet last Saturday.

But they reversed their second-half woes to carve out an outstanding 22-10 win – their first in 10 matches without Ben Hunt.

The Dragons’ Origin trio of Hunt, Jaydn Su’A and Zac Lomax have been named in the reserves alongside an unchanged 17.

The Tigers come off the bye on an eight-match losing streak.

They finally managed to score more than 17 points for the first time since Round 3 in their last outing, but it coincided with their poorest defensive display of the season in a 42-28 away loss to the Cowboys.

Justin Olam returns from suspension and lines up in the centres with Charlie Staines, who moves in from the wing. Alex Lobb returns on the wing and Brent Naden is back on the bench.

David Klemmer (suspension) and Isaiah Papali’i (injury) are out, which sees Alex Twal and Alex Seyfarth start.

The Dragons have won four of the last five merger derbies, including a scrappy 24-12 result at Campbelltown in Round 6 with Lomax dominant, the Tigers have won two of their last four at WIN Stadium.

St George Illawarra produced two of its best wins of 2024 in its two Wollongong matches to date – against Manly and the Warriors – which puts them in a handy position to pull off back-to-back wins for just the second time this year.

The Tigers’ engine-room setbacks do not bode well for an upset, while last week’s effort proved the Dragons can get the job done without their marquee men.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.85

SGM: DRAGONS BY 11-20 POINTS / TIGERS UNDER 18.5 TOTAL POINTS / MOSESE SULI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TYRELL SLOAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.76

Gold Coast and South Sydney both produced vital wins prior to enjoying the Round 13 bye.

The Titans have left an 0-6 start to the season in the rearview mirror, winning three of their last five and losing the other two matches by four or less.

Their 36-34 comeback win to edge the heavyweight Broncos at Suncorp in Round 12 was one of the best in the club’s history.

Stand-in fullback Keano Kini was a clear man-of-the-match, while Maroons discard David Fifita also had a big game.

The Titans are boosted by the return of injured trio Kieran Foran, Phil Sami and Jojo Fifita, while Beau Fernor goes back into the second-row and Moe Fotuaika has been named to back up from Origin.

Troubled Souths earned their first win under caretaker coach Ben Hornby in Round 12, a 42-26 victory over similarly embattled Parramatta.

Overlooked Blues Keaon Koloamatangi, Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook were standouts.

But defence remains an Achilles heel: the 2-9 Rabbitohs have conceded less than 26 points just once this season.

Souths get Cody Walker back from a calf complaint, partnering Jack Wighton in the halves. Richie Kennar comes in at centre and Michael Chee Kam reverts to the pack.

Souths have won their last eight against Gold Coast and lead the all-time rivalry 16-6. The last four clashes were all at Cbus Super Stadium with the Rabbitohs winning by an average margin of 18 points and scoring at least 30.

The Rabbitohs are laced with match-winners and hold some appeal as $2.10 outsiders, but they have done little to earn punters’ faith.

With seven of Souths’ matches and five of Gold Coast’s last eight producing 50-plus points, the points markets are more attractive in this coin-flip game.

Tip: Back 51-60 Total Points @ $3.30

SGM: TITANS OVER 28.5 TOTAL POINTS / RABBITOHS OVER 25.5 TOTAL POINTS / EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 6.5 POINTS / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.13

North Queensland and the Warriors both sit outside the Top 8, but both teams are coming off remarkable shorthanded victories brimming with character. This shapes as a massive swing clash with just one competition point separating the teams.

A patched-up Cowboys side stripped of half a starting line-up’s worth of rep stars – that had not conceded less than 18 points in a game this year – somehow overturned a 16-4 second-half deficit to pip the star-studded Roosters 18-16 in Sydney last Sunday.

The likes of Scott Drinkwater were hugely influential, but debutant centre Jaxon Purdue was among several second-stringers to stand tall.

It was the Cowboys’ third straight win after losing five in a row, but this exceeded anything Todd Payten’s side has delivered in 2024 in the grit department.

The Cowboys’ six Origin reps have all been named in the reserves this week with a 72-hour turnaround from game one.

The Warriors enjoyed their first bye last weekend, having resurrected their campaign in the most unexpected of circumstances over the previous fortnight.

With up to 10 first-choice players missing, they stunned the Panthers 22-20 in Magic Round and – after another raft of enforced changes – pulled off an equally amazing 24-20 win over the Dolphins in Round 12 after trailing 16-6.

Top-liners Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Wayde Egan, Rocco Berry, Addin Fonua-Blake, Kurt Capewell and Tohu Harris all return to action, but Shaun Johnson is at least another week away.

The Warriors have won seven of the teams’ last 10 encounters, but only three of the last 16 in Townsville.

But last year Andrew Webster’s team made a big statement with a 26-12 win on the road in Round 3 and backed it up at home four weeks later 22-14.

This is about the time last year the Warriors started their top-four charge. Slotting their stars back into a winning side is a delicate balance for Webster, but the combination of Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita provides the visitors with calm direction.

Whoever turns up with the greater defensive resolve – something the Cowboys have only delivered on once in 2024 – will take this one, and the fresher Warriors may be the better value option as a $2.35 outsider.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 10.5 Points @ $1.96

SGM: WARRIORS +3.5 / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / KYLE FELDT ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ADAM POMPEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.40

A pair of premiership hopefuls with significant Origin loads and a point to prove lock horns in a Saturday night blockbuster.

The fifth-placed Brisbane Broncos are striving to keep pace with the competition front-runners in a campaign pitted with big-name injury setbacks.

Their bid for three straight wins was stunningly thwarted by Gold Coast in a 36-34 home loss in Round 12.

Origin quartet Pat Carrigan, Selwyn Cobbo, Reece Walsh and Payne Haas are named to back up for the Broncos, while Kotoni Staggs is back from injury.

After making big statements with consecutive wins over Melbourne and Sydney Roosters, the air has gone out of Cronulla’s title contention balloon courtesy of dismal back-to-back losses to depleted Penrith (42-0) and struggling Parramatta (34-22), surrendering the ladder lead in the process.

Hynes succumbed to injury during the first half against the Panthers, and the Sharks have struggled to find the poise that marked their win in Melbourne without their linchpin, but the defensive drop-off has been even more alarming.

Cameron McInnes has been named to back up from his NSW debut but Nicho Hynes will be rested.

Teig Wilton has been ruled out and replaced by Siosifa Talakai, while Tuku Hau Tapuha comes onto the bench for Braden Hamlin-Uele.

The Broncos have won nine of their last 11 against the Sharks (and their last four at Cronulla) including gritty wins last season at home (16-7) and away (20-12) with the latter three days after the Origin series opener.

Brisbane is a far less reliable proposition with Adam Reynolds sidelined, but Hynes’ guaranteed absence tips the scales significantly the way of the home side – pending Haas and Carrigan, in particular, being OK to back up.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.90

SGM: BRONCOS -6.5 / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / EZRA MAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.63

Another heavyweight to look a bit shaky lately under the weight of a high-profile injury toll, ladder-leading Melbourne comes off the bye aiming to bounce back against a Newcastle side reeling from an insipid performance at home in Round 13.

The Storm bookended a Magic Round rout of the Eels with hard-fought losses to the Sharks at home and the Sea Eagles away in their last three.

The absence of Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen was especially evident in the latter defeat.

The Storm have named Harry Grant and Xavier Coates to back up from Origin, while Will Wabrick’s injury sees Grant Anderson go onto the wing and Bronson Garlick join the interchange.

The Knights went into the Round 12 bye basking in four straight gritty wins since losing Kalyn Ponga to injury.

But the well-rested squad were awful last Friday, sinking to a season-worst 32-2 loss at home to an Origin-hit Bulldogs side that spent 20 minutes of the match with a player in the bin.

Exasperated coach Adam O’Brien has resisted the urge to make changes, naming the same 17 and will be hoping for a turnaround from rookie fullback David Armstrong, who had a shocker against Canterbury.

After losing the teams’ last 11 encounters, the Knights have won their last two against the Storm: a 26-18 result in Round 21 last year and a 14-12 eclipse of a team missing Munster and Hughes in Round 3 this season, but Newcastle’s last win at AAMI Park was back in 2015.

The Knights have picked up a couple of recent wins at neutral venues but are 1-3 as a genuine away team in 2024.

The Storm have not lost consecutive regular-season games at home since 2019 and should get away with the two points here, though the hefty 13.5-point line is hard to take on for a team that has earned six of its eight wins by eight points or less.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 1-12 Points @ $3.10

SGM: STORM WIN / KNIGHTS +13.5 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $44.64

Another pivotal showdown with third-placed Penrith chastened by a disappointing home loss last weekend and seventh-placed Manly coming off the bye after an impressive home win over a top-four heavyweight.

Both teams are shouldering a heavy Origin load.

Blues withdrawal Dylan Edwards is in the reserves list, but the remainder of Penrith’s NSW contingent is named in the 17.

Jack Cole has been retained over Brad Schneider alongside Jarome Luai. Luke Garner also returns from injury.

Daly Cherry-Evans, Haumole Olakau’atu and Jake Trbojevic have been named for Manly, while Lehi Hopoate has kept the fullback spot. Tolu Koula goes to centre and Tommy Talau to the wing.

The Panthers were on track for a typically gritty Origin period win over the Dragons last Saturday but were blanked in the second half of a 22-10 loss after leading 10-0 at the break.

It was a continuation of an up and down period for the premiers, who were rolled by the Warriors in Magic Round before lowering ladder leader Cronulla’s colours 42-0.

The Tom Trbojevic-less Sea Eagles ended a three-game slide in Round 12 with a DCE-led 26-20 defeat of the Storm at home.

The Sea Eagles will be aiming to replicate their 32-18 home win over a Cleary-less Panthers side in Round 5.

That result snapped an eight-match losing streak in the rivalry, but they are searching for their first win at Penrith since 2018 and have lost their last two there by 22-plus margins.

Penrith has not lost consecutive games at home – or three times overall in a four-match period – since 2019. Manly is 1-1-4 as an away team in 2024.

Whether that’s enough to back the Panthers as a $1.35 favourite is debatable, though.

The Origin factor presents too many variables, while the trend of low-scorers at Penrith when Cleary doesn’t play (38 points or less in four matches since the start of 2023) shapes as a safer bet.

Tip: Back Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.96

SGM: SEA EAGLES +8.5 / PANTHERS UNDER 24.5 TOTAL POINTS / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER / PAUL ALAMOTI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.69

Plenty has changed for both teams since Parramatta cruised to a 26-8 victory Canterbury at CommBank Stadium in Round 1.

The Bulldogs are on the fringe of the Top 8 after chalking up six wins, along with four losses by four or less, in their last 10 games.

In the past fortnight they blitzed the Dragons 44-12 after trailing at halftime and demolished the Knights 32-2 in Newcastle without two NSW stars and injured duo Viliame Kikau and Josh Addo-Carr.

As the club hunts three straight victories for the first time since 2019, Stephen Crichton and Matt Burton are named in the Bulldogs’ line-up with a five-day turnaround from the Origin series opener and Toby Sexton hangs onto the No.7 jersey.

The Eels fell off a cliff after losing Mitchell Moses (and later Clint Gutherson) to injury, going on a 1-7 run that cost long-serving coach Brad Arthur his job.

But Moses’ returned in Round 13 sparked an immediate transformation, leading a 34-22 victory over table-topping Cronulla.

Gutherson also came back in that match and was influential, while Dylan Brown starred without the pressure of running the team.

Blaize Talagi goes into the Eels’ centres with Bailey Simonsson (knee) out; Sean Russell shuffles to the wing. J’Maine Hopgood will back up after debuting for Queensland.

The Eels have won 14 of the archrivals’ last 17 clashes, including six of the last seven by 18-plus margins.

The Bulldogs’ sole win in the past five seasons was a 34-4 shock against the eventual grand finalists midway through 2022.

One of the toughest to call in a weekend of hairline matches. The Eels are $1.70 favourites, but the Bulldogs deserve some respect for their performances over a significant length of time.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / BLAKE WILSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BLAIZE TALAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $102.61

2022

The NRL Round 14 focus will be on a couple of bottom-four battlers as the Warriors and Wests Tigers regroup from midweek coach sackings.

Archrivals Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm square off in the only match of the round between two Top 8 teams, while the Brisbane Broncos-Canberra Raiders showdown shapes as the pick of the bunch as clubs regroup from the Origin series opener on Wednesday night.

North Queensland consolidated its top-four standing in Round 13 with a dominant 32-6 defeat of Gold Coast without a handful of Maroons stars. Scott Drinkwater’s fullback renaissance continued and the 9-4 Cowboys’ fill-ins were excellent.

Todd Payten has named the same 17, with Valentine Holmes, Jeremiah Nanai, Tom Dearden and Reuben Cotter to be assessed post-Origin with this fixture only 48 hours after the series opener.

St George Illawarra, which had its bye last weekend, has named Queensland hooker and Dally M leader Ben Hunt to back up at halfback and NSW back-rower Tariq Sims in the starting pack.

The 6-6 Dragons are on the cusp of the Top 8 after winning five of their last seven. But they have unmistakably picked off the low-hanging fruit – an Anzac Day upset of the Roosters is their only victory over a team currently higher than 12th.

The Saints made hard work of wins over the Warriors (24-18) and Bulldogs (34-24) in their last two. On the plus side, Cody Ramsey’s shift to fullback has been a slam-dunk, while Zac Lomax is in devastating touch.

The teams split their 2021 encounters: St George Illawarra got up 25-18 in Townsville in Round 2, while North Queensland bagged a 38-26 late-season victory in Rockhampton.

The Cowboys boast the second-best defence in the NRL and have scored 30-plus points in six of their past seven. The Origin factor plays into the Dragons’ hands (Hunt’s availability pending) but the Cowboys will be confident in their back-up players doing the job again if required.

Four of the six 2022 visitors to Townsville have managed just one try. The line is surprisingly big (14 points) but the hosts are absolutely flying and should get the job done.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 11-20 @ $3.20

SGM: COWBOYS 13+ / DRAGONS UNDER 12.5 / MURRAY TAULAGI TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $8.15

Drama and upheaval at other clubs in the NRL ladder’s lower reaches have steered the spotlight away from Gold Coast Titans, but no team is in more of a hole than Justin Holbrook’s 2021 finalists.

With just one win from their last nine games, the Titans had an opportunity to reroute their campaign against a depleted Cowboys side last Thursday – but they were pantsed 32-6 after leading 6-0 midway through the first half.

Compounding their woes, Jayden Campbell – a rare silver lining since returning from injury last month – is set for a long spell on the sidelines. AJ Brimson reverts to fullback, with ex-Warrior Paul Turner to make his club debut at five-eighth. Greg Marzhew and Patrick Herbert come in for Corey Thompson and Esan Marsters.

Inconsistent South Sydney continues to cling to eighth spot with a 6-6 record. They have won back-to-back just once, in Rounds 5 and 6 against the Dragons and Bulldogs, and are aiming to repeat that modest feat after thumping the Tigers 44-18 before last week’s bye.

The Rabbitohs trailed the Tigers at halftime but clicked into gear after the break with Alex Johnston bagging a hat-trick and the mercurial Cody Walker scoring twice.

Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and Jai Arrow are named to back up three days after Origin, as is Titans skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. The Rabbitohs also get Tevita Tatola back.

The Rabbitohs are on a six-match winning streak against the Titans, including a pair of high-scoring victories at Robina in 2021 – 40-30 in Round 7 and 36-6 in Round 22.

Souths’ wins have all come against bottom-half teams. But the Titans certainly fit into the cannon fodder category – and with the second-worst defence in the NRL, there’s little to suggest they can manufacture an upset here. The Titans’ last seven losses were by seven points or more, while five of the Rabbitohs’ six wins were by 12-plus.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / RABBITOHS OVER 24.5 / ALEX JOHNSTON TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $6.12

Sydney Roosters’ season keeps stalling just when they appear to be gathering some momentum. The Tricolours’ season-best 36-16 win over Cronulla in Round 12 was bookended by disappointing losses to Penrith (32-12) and Canberra (22-16).

Joey Manu was enormous at fullback against the Raiders but NSW captain James Tedesco has been named to return, along with Queensland prop Lindsay Collins.

Melbourne’s Origin contingent of Cameron Munster, Felise Kaufusi, Xavier Coates and Harry Grant has been named to play. Nelson Asofa-Solomona also returns but Ryan Papenhuyzen remains out with Nick Meaney doing a decent job in the custodian role.

The injury-hit Storm bounced back from their twin heavy losses to the Panthers and Cowboys with a Munster-led 28-8 defeat of the Sea Eagles in Round 12, hanging onto second spot on the ladder in the process.

The Storm are on a four-match winning run against the Roosters, owning the heavyweight rivalry in 2021 with a 20-4 win at home in Round 4 and a 46-0 demolition at Newcastle in Round 16.

The Roosters’ fortunes hinge on halves Luke Keary and Sam Walker finding some 80-minute cohesion – which they’ve managed against middling opposition but have struggled with against in-form sides.

Jahrome Hughes and Brandon Smith will look to drive the Origin-burdened Storm, who are well-versed at navigating this difficult period of the season and are deserving favourites at the SCG, where the Roosters have won just two of their last six.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 1-12 @ $2.75

SGM: STORM WIN / OVER 40.5 / JUSTIN OLAM ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JOSEPH SUAALII ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $14.20

Fourth-placed Brisbane is chasing seven straight wins for the first time since 2015 – but it won’t be simple against a revitalised Canberra on Saturday night.

The 8-4 Broncos managed to keep their streak (in which they’ve averaged 32 points and conceded just 11.5 per games) going despite the absence of Adam Reynolds in their last two against the battling Knights and Titans.

Reynolds returns this week, while Origin stars Payne Haas, Kotoni Staggs, Selwyn Cobbo and Pat Carrigan have been named but Kurt Capewell will be rested.

The Raiders have recovered from a 2-6 start to win four of their last five – including high-quality upsets of the Sharks, Rabbitohs and Roosters. They showed plenty of resolve to hold off the Roosters 22-16 without marquee duo Josh Papalii and Jack Wighton after letting a 12-point lead slip.

Xavier Savage and Matt Timoko are in hot form out wide, while Joe Tapine and Corey Horsburgh have been superb up front. Wighton and Papalii have been named, while James Schiller comes onto the wing for the suspended Jordan Rapana.

After losing the last six clashes between the clubs, the Raiders have won their last three against the Broncos. Last season’s sole encounter saw the Green Machine romp to a 38-16 victory at home – but the Broncos have won the last five in Brisbane.

The Origin pinch plays into the visitors’ hands this week, however, and the Raiders look a sharp option against the spread in what should be a cracking contest.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 41.5 / SEBASTIAN KRIS ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JORDAN RIKI ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $65.42

Wests Tigers have five days to regroup from the abrupt end to Michael Maguire’s three-and-a-half year tenure, with Brett Kimmorley stepping into the caretaker hotseat. The final straw was the 3-9 Tigers’ 44-18 loss to Souths in Round 12 after leading at halftime.

Kimmorley has recalled winger David Nofoaluma, who was out of first grade for disciplinary reasons, while Jacob Liddle returns at hooker and Jock Madden grabs a spot on the bench.

Manly snapped a three-match losing streak and edged back up to 10th with an emphatic 44-12 defeat of the hapless Warriors – despite the absence of Daly Cherry-Evans. The Sea Eagles’ pack was utterly dominant with Haumole Olakau’atu the standout, while the spine of Croker, Foran, Schuster and Garrick shone brightly.

DCE is named to back up from Origin, which sees Schuster move back to the bench. Karl Lawton has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury in a cruel blow.

Manly registered its third straight win over Wests Tigers via a 36-22 result at home in Round 9. Cherry-Evans was the star that day, along with currently injured Ben Trbojevic and Croker.

The Tigers have lost four of their last five at Campbelltown. The coaching drama should have some sort of galvanising effect in the short term, but it’s unlikely to be enough to topple a Manly side that has won all six of its games against bottom-half opposition by an average margin of 16 points.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / OVER 42.5 POINTS / JASON SAAB FIRST OR LAST TRY SCORER @ $11.66

Newcastle has relieved some pressure with scratchy wins over fellow battlers Canterbury and the Warriors either side of a 24-point loss to Brisbane in its past three outings. They’ll have Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai backing up from Origin, while Kurt Mann returns on the bench, and Jacob Saifiti will start in the place of injured twin Daniel.

A severely Origin-depleted Penrith comfortably accounted for Canterbury 30-18 last Friday to improve to 12-1. Stand-in skippers Dylan Edwards and James Fisher-Harris led by example as the Panthers’ depth came to the fore.

The Panthers’ NSW contingent of Nathan Cleary, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Stephen Crichton, Brian To’o and Jarome Luai have all been named to play, but it would not surprise to see at least a couple rested given the calibre of the opposition.

Then-unbeaten Newcastle showed some spirit in a 38-20 loss to Penrith in Bathurst in Round 3 after having Mitchell Barnett sent off in the first half – but their season has spiralled from that point. The Knights have won only one of their last 11 against the Panthers, who have won four straight at Newcastle.

Newcastle’s last six games against Top 8 opposition have resulted in losses by 18-plus margins. Only one of Penrith’s 12 wins was by less than 12 points, including eight by a margin of 20 or more. Unless the Panthers’ Blues are ruled out en masse, this shapes as an easy cover for the minor premiers-in-waiting.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: PANTHERS BY 21-30 / OVER 41.5 POINTS / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $12.99

The lamentable 37-game Nathan Brown era at the Warriors – which garnered a paltry 12 wins – has come to a close. The club will be hoping the historic avalanche of points the team has conceded under his tutelage also ends with his departure.

The Warriors have won just one of their last nine and hit yet another new low with a 44-12 defeat at Manly last Saturday. The NRL’s worst defensive outfit were steamrolled through the middle, showed little goal-line resolve and were out of ideas on attack – with Shaun Johnson once again under fire.

Club legend Stacey Jones – who boasts a good lower-grade record but has been party to recent failures as Brown’s assistant – takes the reins. Jones resisted shaking things up on Team List Tuesday, with Josh Curran’s long-awaited return and Dunamis Lui coming in for Aaron Pene the only changes, though he hinted at a late reshuffle.

Early bolter Cronulla is at an interesting crossroads after getting stuck in a win-loss pattern since Round 5. The 7-5 Sharks’ last three games have been very underwhelming, bookending a so-so win over the Titans with 20-point defeats to the Raiders and Roosters.

The Warriors have won just two of their last 11 against the Sharks – and the memory of crashing 29-10 in the Shire in Round 9 after the hosts had Will Kennedy sent off early and Jesse Ramien sin-binned will be fresh in the mind.

Ramien returns from the suspension incurred after that clash, which should have alarm bells ringing in a shaky Warriors backline.

But the Warriors have been much better at their Redcliffe base in 2022, going 3-0 before an eight-point loss to the Knights in Round 12. The Sharks are just 2-4 on the road. It may be ambitious to say an upset is in the offing, but the Warriors seem likely to lift for Jones in an emotion-charged week and are getting a huge start.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+14 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 12.5 POINTS / UNDER 42.5 / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRY SCORER / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $27.82

Round 14 closes with a showdown between last-placed Canterbury and Top 4 hopeful Parramatta.

The 2-11 Bulldogs’ attack has improved since Trent Barrett’s exit – scoring 18-plus points in three losses after scoring no more than 16 in their first 10 games – but they have leaked 100 points to the Tigers, Dragons and Panthers.

Despite the brilliance of Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton, the blue-and-whites could not capitalise on the Panthers’ Origin drain, going down 30-18.

The 8-4 Eels are starting to couple their giant-killing exploits (away wins over the Storm and Panthers) with a bit of consistency (hard-fought victories over the Sea Eagles and Raiders in their last two). Halves Dylan Brown and Mitch Moses are absolutely humming in a well-oiled Parramatta line-up.

Blockbusting winger Maika Sivo makes his first appearance for the Eels since late-2021, with Waqa Blake shifting to centre in the closest thing the club has had to a full-strength backline this season. Blues trio Ryan Matterson, Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard have been named to play.

Jake Averillo has been named at fullback for the Bulldogs with Corey Allan on the wing in another selection head-scratcher – the same late reshuffle last week didn’t work. Luke Thompson withdrew late from the Panthers game and is still out, while Tevita Pangai Jr is among the reserves.

Parramatta has won 10 of its last 12 against Canterbury – including the last four grudge matches in a row. The two 2021 encounters followed a similar script: the Eels prevailed 32-10 in Round 8 and 36-10 in Round 15, with former Bulldog Shaun Lane a try-scorer in both matches.

The Bulldogs are playing with a bit more freedom under Mick Potter but have little to offer outside Burton and ‘The Fox’, while a frequently-changing line-up is set to bear the brunt of the Eels’ mouth-watering array of attacking firepower.

Tip: Back the Eels to Score Over 27.5 Points @ $1.78

SGM: PARRAMATTA 13+ / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRY SCORER / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $7.12

2021

Origin week is always good for an upset or three and that will certainly be the case in Round 14 with all 16 teams back in action.

A pivotal top-eight clash between Manly and the Cowboys gets us started from Brookvale on Friday night, followed by the Premiership favourite Panthers looking to bounce back against the Sharks at Jubilee.

The Bunnies are back from the bye as they set their sights on the Knights on Saturday, while there’s also plenty at stake between the Raiders and the Broncos in Canberra.

Round 14 looks to be the perfect encore to Origin Game 1 on Wednesday night, and we’ve got you covered with our best bets for all eight games below!

A battle between sixth and seventh is the perfect encore to Wednesday night’s Origin opener.

The Sea Eagles have spent an extra week dwelling on their shock loss to the Knights in Newcastle and will be eager to move one step closer to locking up their spot in the top eight.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ resurgence continues with Todd Payten’s side riding the highs of a thrilling one-point win over the Warriors two weeks ago thanks to the boot of Valentine Holmes.

The Sea Eagles have dominated this fixture recently with three wins from their last five games against the Cowboys, and it is no surprise to find them as the firm favourites with home-field advantage.

North Queensland has struggled on the road this year winning only one from five, but it is worth noting the Cowboys have won their last three trips to Brookvale.

Overall, there isn’t as much separating these two sides as the current market suggests, and with seven of their last 11 meetings going Over the Total, a high-scoring game might be the safest play.

Tip: Over 49.5 Total Points @ $1.90

The Sharks could earn their way back into the eight with a win on Friday night, but Josh Hannay’s side still has a big mountain to climb against a Panthers team playing with a point to prove.

Penrith had its 12-game winning streak snapped against the Tigers last week, albeit due to a handful of their stars resting for Origin.

It’s tough to know who will be included on the short turnaround, but if the Panthers can at least get Nathan Cleary or Brian To’o on the field, they should go a long way to winning this game.

The Panthers have already played the Sharks once this year, not that you need to remind fans of Cronulla.

Penrith walked away with a 48-0 shutout when these two sides met in May and a similar margin would not surprise considering the Panthers have almost doubled the Sharks’ scoring total this year.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-10 Points) @ $2.00

A game against the Roosters couldn’t have come at a worse time for Titans coach Justin Holbrook.

Gold Coast’s downward spiral continued last week with a heartbreaking loss to the Storm on the Sunshine Coast, a result that has left the Titans sitting 12^th on the ladder amongst a backlog of teams tied on points.

Making matters worse, the Roosters head into Saturday’s game well-rested after downing the Raiders 44-16 in Sydney a fortnight ago.

The bye was just what Trent Robinson’s side needed with a slew of recent injuries beginning to pile up, and there appears to be some reprieve on the horizon with Angus Crichton and Sam Verrills a chance at playing this week.

Roosters fans can also rest easy knowing their club holds the wood over the Titans.

The tri-colours have won six straight over the Gold Coast dating back to 2016, three of which have come by double-digit margins.

Defensively the Titans have been awful this year and it’s very difficult to build a case for them causing an upset.

Gold Coast is allowing points at an alarming rate, while they also rank sixth in missed tackles.

None of that bodes well against the league’s third-best points scoring team, so even with a few stars potentially missing, this shapes as a very winnable game for the Chooks.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Knights looked well on their way to getting things back on track with a win over Manly a fortnight ago, but that joy was quickly short-lived as Newcastle coughed up 40 points to the Eels in an embarrassing loss at home last week.

If the Knights thought the Eels’ attack was tough, they’re about to find things even harder on Saturday against a well-rested Rabbitohs side that recently punished Parramatta by double digits in Round 12.

Now back to full-strength, Souths are easily one of the most dangerous teams in the competition moving forward as Wayne Bennett’s crew looks to move a step closer to cementing their spot in the top four.

Typically speaking, these two sides have played out some tight affairs in recent memory, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Bunnies won 46-20 when they met last October.

Alex Johnston and Damien Cook feasted on the Knights that day, and with Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce potentially another week away, it wouldn’t be surprising if a similar result unfolds.

The Bunnies have played to a whopping 8-1 record as the home favourite against the Knights, so this one seems relatively simple.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win & Over 50.5 Total Points @ $2.10

There’s still plenty of footy left, but this feels like a must-win game as far as the Raiders are concerned.

Injuries and a basic lack of effort and execution has left Ricky Stuart’s men with work to do, but one big win over the Broncos this week would be enough to lift them much, much closer to the top eight.

As for the Broncos, a win is just as crucial with a second straight wooden spoon still on the cards.

Unfortunately, Brisbane gave its fans very little to cheer about last week on the road against the Dragons, and this trip to Canberra won’t exactly have fans full of confidence either.

If you’ve been keeping count, you’ll know the Broncos have lost back-to-back games against the Green Machine in the nation’s capital, and it’s hard to see that streak coming to an end now that Anthony Milford needs surgery to repair his knee.

With the Raiders also well-rested off the bye, this is an ideal game for them to get things back on track.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Storm are not only out for their 11^th straight win of the season, but also their 11^th straight win over the Warriors.

Melbourne overcame a late sin-binning to stave off the Titans last week – a result that has left the Storm only two points behind the Panthers on the ladder.

The Warriors, meanwhile, will be eager to bounce back from their agonizing loss to the Cowboys a fortnight ago.

New Zealand has been a steady betting play on the back of a loss recently, and they do look an intriguing play with the Storm potentially missing the likes of Cameron Munster post Origin.

The Warriors have also played to a strong 6-2 record as the home underdog over the last 12 months, and with rain expected in Gosford from Wednesday right through to Saturday, the conditions might just play into the Kiwis’ hands.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Eels are looking to build on the momentum of last week’s stunning 40-4 win over Newcastle, while the Tigers are also riding the highs of a thorough 26-6 win over a half-strength Panthers team.

The Eels extended their winning streak to six over the Tigers with a commanding 14-point win when these two sides met earlier in April, and as the market suggests, it appears the bookies are favouring a similar result.

Now back to full-strength, Parra’s attack looked lethal last week against the Knights as Ryan Matterson and Maika Sivo both made short work of the Newcastle defence out wide.

As far as the rematch goes, the Tigers do have enough talent to keep this close, particularly on the defensive side where they’ve been surprisingly efficient all year.

That said, the trends don’t lie: the last seven games between these two have all gone Over the Total.

Bankwest tends to lend itself to high-scoring games, and although the Eels are tough to trust week to week, they should be winning this one if they can string together two flawless halves like they did against Newcastle.

Tip: Back the Eels to Win & Over 49.5 Total Points @ $2.50

Things looked pretty grim for the Dragons this time last week, but a big win over the Broncos was just what the doctor ordered.

The Saints still find themselves sitting eighth on the ladder after snapping their three-game skid, and they should sense the importance of this game with a couple of tough clashes against the Raiders and Warriors coming up before the bye.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are looking to snap a five-game skid after suffering a 30-4 defeat to the Panthers a fortnight ago.

Canterbury should be well-rested after taking last week off, but recent history doesn’t favour Trent Barrett’s side.

The Dogs have lost four of their last five to the Dragons, which includes a 32-12 drubbing at Jubillee back in May.

Nothing about these two sides is very convincing right now, but you have to respect the fact the Dragons have scored twice the amount of points the Bulldogs have put up so far this season.

With a win likely to prove very crucial to the outcome of their season, the Dragons should get home here by a decent margin.

Tip: Back the Dragons 13+ @ $1.88

2020

The hype around Thursday’s rematch between the Roosters and the Storm has hit fever pitch as fans prepare for a finals-like atmosphere at the SCG.

Friday night features an interesting doubleheader with the Warriors looking to pull off another upset against the Panthers, while the Eels could potentially move back on top of the ladder with a win over the struggling Dragons.

Sunday’s game between the Knights and Manly is vitally important in terms of the top eight, while the Tigers are also hoping to remain in the hunt when they take on the Dogs.

Favourites continue to come through for punters and there is plenty of value to be found in our 2020 NRL Round 14 Preview below.

A costly penalty in extra time helped the Storm to a two-point win over the Roosters when these two sides last met back in Round 8.

The Roosters have done it tough ever since through injury, but they’ve done extremely well to win three games in a row to remain in the top four.

The Storm, on the other hand, have put together a tidy winning streak themselves.

After dismantling the Bulldogs last week, Melbourne has now won each of their last seven games, but it appears that still isn’t enough to sway the bookies.

The Roosters are odds-on favourites with home-field advantage as well as both Cameron Smith and Cameron Munster absent for the Storm.

Sydney, meanwhile, will likely welcome back Boyd Cordner from a head knock, while Brett Morris and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves remain a chance to return.

The Roosters do look a real chance to avenge their loss with a handful of their top stars returning.

It’s worth noting, however, that the last four games between these two sides have been decided by 1-12 points, so it’s probably worth avoiding the line.

Tip: Back the Roosters 1-12 @ $2.65

The Panthers are shooting for nine wins in a row on Friday night, but they need to beware a Warriors side that seems to save its best footy for the Central Coast.

New Zealand really gave it to the Roosters on this ground three weeks ago in their 18-10 defeat, a performance that inspired the Warriors to back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Manly in Rounds 12 and 13.

Penrith, of course, were outstanding in their 28-12 win over the Raiders last week, and they should only feel better about themselves knowing Dylan Edwards is a chance to play this week.

Not that they’ll be short, but the Panthers only need to rewind back to Round 4 if they are lacking motivation.

Penrith belted the Warriors 26-0 in Campbelltown, and with a 7-1 record at the line as the favourite, it’s safe to say the Panthers might win by plenty again.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-18.5 Points) @ $1.90

Time is quickly running out for the Dragons after suffering their third straight loss last week against the Roosters.

The Dragons have also lost three straight to the Eels dating back to 2018, so it’s safe to say this is a must-win game for St George with the finals right around the corner.

Meanwhile, in Parramatta, things are quite the opposite.

The Eels could potentially reclaim the top of the table if results go their way this week, while head coach Brad Arthur has to be pleased with his sides gutsy effort last week against the Sharks in horrible conditions.

Parra could receive an added boost in the form of Ryan Matterson, while the Dragons have grave concerns for Tariq Sims, who injured his shoulder last week against the Roosters.

The Dragons are 3-1 as the away underdog at the line over the last 12 months, but on the flip side, they are 0-4 as the away underdog at the line against the Eels.

With Parramatta sensing a chance to move back on top, they should win big.

Tip: Back the Eels 13+ @ $2.00

The Sharks continue to check all the boxes despite losing a nail-biter in treacherous conditions last week to the Eels.

A rain-soaked Jubilee Stadium made life impossible, but there was plenty of merit in Cronulla’s performance as John Morris’ men never quit.

The Titans also put their best foot forward last week to become the top team in Queensland with a 30-10 victory over the Cowboys.

Gold Coast have proven themselves a handful at times this year, so the Sharks will need to be wary on Saturday afternoon.

Ronaldo Mulitalo is set to play despite suffering a head knock last week for the Sharks, while the Titans should enter this game almost unchanged.

As far as trends go, the Sharks have won four straight over the Titans dating back to 2017, but there is reason to believe in the Titans again.

The Gold Coast have covered the line in four of their last five games against Cronulla as the away underdog at the line, so chances are the Titans keep this one tight.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Rabbitohs find themselves with another great opportunity to cement themselves in the eight against the struggling Cowboys on Saturday afternoon.

Souths made short work of the Broncos in their 28-10 rout at ANZ last week and judging by North Queensland’s efforts against the Titans, the Bunnies should have no trouble ripping through the Cowboys’ defence.

Valentine Holmes appears a few weeks away from returning, leaving the Cowboys short-handed once again.

The Rabbitohs have won four straight games over the Cowboys dating back to 2018 and with a chance to move a little closer to the top four, they should turn up ready to make a statement.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-8 Points) @ $2.00

The Raiders have a great opportunity to bounce-back on Saturday night as they prepare to face a Broncos side struggling on and off the field.

Canberra put in a brave first-half effort last week against the Panthers but were ultimately run off their feet in the end.

The Broncos, meanwhile, came up short to the Rabbitohs in their fourth straight loss and will now have to overcome the absence of Anthony Seibold, who attends to family matters down in Sydney.

Despite their disastrous season, the Broncos remain a very intriguing team from a betting perspective this week.

Some teams respond exceptionally well to a chance in the coaching booth, while it’s worth noting that the Broncos have won four of their last five over the Raiders.

That said, Canberra has been exceptional on the back of a loss playing to a 7-1 record straight-up and a 5-1-2 record at the line.

A double-digit spread is always a little daunting, but the Raiders should cover playing at home.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-14.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Knights knew they had to win last week after suffering back-to-back losses and they wasted no time responding with a blowout win over the Tigers.

As a result, Newcastle has been well-supported to keep the good times rolling this week against a Manly side limping to the finish line.

The Sea Eagles suffered their second straight defeat at the hands of the Warriors last week and with Tom Trbojevic and Dylan Walker still a week or two away, it’s difficult to see Manly bouncing back.

The Knights already own a victory over the Sea Eagles after downing Manly 14-12 back in Round 8.

Home field advantage is just another positive for the Knights, although the casualty ward is beginning to grow again with Bradman Best and Edrick Lee out indefinitely.

With a few stars missing, it wouldn’t be surprising if this game turns out to be low scoring.

The Total has gone Under in the last two meetings between Manly and Newcastle, so let’s go with a Same Game Multi.

Tip: Back the Knights to Win & Under 39.5 Total Points @ $2.63

The NRL might have saved the best for last this week as the Tigers and Bulldogs meet on Sunday afternoon at Bankwest.

A win for Wests is crucial after suffering their third straight defeat last week against the Knights, but all is far from lost as they themselves still sitting 10^th on the ladder.

Speaking of the table, the Dogs will see this game as a real opportunity to not only spoil the Tigers’ party but also move a step closer to avoiding the wooden spoon.

The Dogs were pounded by the Storm 41-10 last week on the Sunshine Coast, but they only need to refer back to their narrow 18-16 loss to the Eels a fortnight ago to regain some confidence.

Several of the Tigers’ big playmakers went missing last week as the likes of Moses Mbye and David Nofoaluma failed to leave their mark on the game.

Fortunately, both players played a big part in the Tigers’ 34-6 win over the Dogs back in Round 7, so the chances of history repeating itself seem high.

Tip: Back the Tigers 1-12 @ $2.70

2019

It’s a tussle atop the NRL ladder with only ten points separating first from eighth, but with a pair of top-eight clashes to look forward to, we might finally gain some clarity with finals on the horizon.

The bottom eight could also be in for a shakeup with five teams tied on 12 points. Saturday’s game between the Eels and the Broncos could make or break either sides season, while the Roosters also hope to snap their three-game skid.

We’ve previewed all eight games and are confident we’ve found some winners, so be sure to read on below for our entire 2019 NRL Round 14 Preview.

A 28-0 shutout over the Tigers last week has the Raiders back inside the top four, but head coach Ricky Stuart has his work cut out for him on Thursday against a Sharks side riding a two-game winning streak.

Cronulla were equally impressive last week disposing of the Eels 42-22 at home. Sharp passes and clever kicks kept Parramatta’s defence guessing, and most importantly, earned the Sharks a much needed to win to remain inside the eight.

These two sides met twice last year with the Sharks stealing the points in Rounds 10 and 19. Cronulla has won four of its last five games over Canberra, but not surprisingly open as the underdog this week on the road.

They say defence wins games, and that’s certainly been the case for the 7-5 Sharks. Cronulla has held their opponent to 20-points or less six times already this year, but unfortunately, the Sharks might meet their match this week against a Raiders side that ranks third in possession and fourth in set completion.

There’s no doubt the Sharks are a finals contender, but they do need to tidy up with the ball in hand. Some fortunate officiating went their way last week, but there’s no getting around the fact Cronulla ranks inside the top five in errors.

As for the Raiders, we should see their 5-2 record as the home favourite come into play this week. The Raiders are 4-3 in front of their home faithful this year, so with some generous odds on offer, back them outright.

Tip: Back the Raiders To Win @ $1.80

The scoreboard tells the full story, but the most impressive part of the Titans’ 26-18 win over the Broncos was their ability to weather the storm in the early goings.

Brisbane threatened early in the first half only to come undone against Brian Kelly in the 12^th minute. The Titans went on to add two more tries before the main break, while Kelly capped the game off with the decider in the 63^rd minute.

The Warriors weren’t quite so fortunate last week against the Storm, falling by 22-points in yet another disappointing display at home. Finals look a big stretch for Stephen Kearney’s side now, although Kiwi fans should feel confident following their blowout Round 4 win over the Titans earlier this year.

From a betting perspective, the market paints the full picture. The Titans have won only one of their last five games against the Warriors, but considering New Zealand are 1-4 on the road this year, this game is a bit of a coin flip.

While there’s plenty of value in the head-to-head market, the Total might be the safest play this week. The last two games between these sides have gone Over the Total, while the Warriors have seen eight of their last 12 road games go Over.

Tip: Over 39.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

The bottom half of the ladder is just as scrappy as the top, making Friday’s game between the 11^th placed Tigers and the 12^th placed Cowboys must-watch TV.

Both sides are tied on 12 points each, and if this game turns out anything like last year’s 20-12 Tigers thriller, we should be in for a real treat.

The Cowboys saw their three-game winning streak come to an end last week as they lost 22-20 against Manly at home. It was hardly a poor performance from Paul Green’s side, but the lack of second-half scoring cost the Cowboys a chance at the points.

Wests coach Michael Maguire has a lot more to worry about following the Tigers’ 28-0 loss to the Raiders. It’s not the first time we’ve seen the Tigers fail to fire this season, and with a paltry 2-4 record as the away underdog in games against the Cowboys, it’s tough to trust Wests to bounce back.

The Cowboys should win this game if their forwards do the talking. North Queensland are the best side in the league when it comes to gaining metres after contact, while the Tigers continue to look vulnerable on the edges.

It’s hard to find faith in North Queensland’s 3-4 record at home this year, but with a 4-1 record as the line favourite in home games over the last 12 months, back the Cowboys to Cover.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Storm put their four-game winning streak on the line this week against a Knights side that has quietly strung together six on the trot.

It’s a battle between first and fifth on the ladder, but for Newcastle, this game could mean the difference between finishing inside the top four or slipping all the way down to seventh.

As if beating the Roosters convincingly a fortnight ago wasn’t enough, the Knights added further promise to their season by polishing off the Rabbitohs 20-12 last Friday night.

Not to be outdone, the Storm have also been ticking all the boxes. Melbourne made short work of the Warriors in Auckland last week, and with a six-game win streak in hand against the Knights, there’s no reason to back against the Storm at home on Saturday.

The Knights last won in Melbourne back in 2015, and although they have the attacking weapons to go toe-to-toe with the Storm on the scoreboard, they might be in for a reality check this week against the best set completion side in the competition.

The Storm have won their last five games over the Knights by an average margin of 21.6 points, and considering they’ve won five games at home by 13+ points over the last 12 months, back Melbourne to win by plenty.

Tip: Back the Storm 13+ @ $2.60

Back-to-back losses suddenly have the Rabbitohs in jeopardy of slipping down to third on the ladder this week.

South Sydney’s loss to the Knights last Friday came at full strength following Origin, and while the Bunnies came close on the scoreboard, coach Wayne Bennett must feel displeased with his side’s effort outside of the opening and closing 10-minutes.

As for the Panthers, suddenly Penrith looks a worthwhile upset chance. Two wins on the trot have the Panthers clear of wooden spoon territory, but they’ll need to be at their best on the road this week if they wish to make up for their four-point loss to the Rabbits back in Round 7.

Credit where credit is due, Penrith’s pair of wins over Manly and the Roosters weren’t cheap. Defensively the Panthers have been brilliant over the last three weeks holding all three opponents to under 20-points, largely due to the fact they lead the league in tackles.

Of course, with the good comes the bad. The Panthers also lead the league in missed tackles, which should spell trouble against the Bunnies this week. Damien Cook has carved up the middle of the field all season, leading the Bunnies to rank second in points and tries scored.

With a perfect 3-0 record as the home favourite against the Panthers, back South Sydney to win easily.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.90

Big game between two inconsistent sides that continue to find new ways to lose.

The Broncos were on the receiving end of an eight-point loss to the Titans at home last week, a result that sees Brisbane back outside the eight.

Parramatta was equally as poor last Saturday falling by 20-points to the Sharks away from home. The Eels are clinging to the eighth spot on the ladder, but with both sides tied at 12-points apiece, a loss this week at home could see either team slip as far down as 12^th on the ladder.

Brisbane earned bragging rights over the Eels winning 18-10 at Suncorp last year but considering Saturday’s game will mark their first trip the new and improved Bankwest Stadium, it’s not surprising to see the Broncos open as outsiders.

Anthony Seibold’s side has won three of its last five games against the Eels, but the same problem – slow starts – continues to plague the Broncos.

Brisbane are 3-4 as the away underdog over the last 12 months, while the Eels are 5-1 as the home favourite during the same time span.

Parramatta are also 7-6 on the back of a loss over the last calendar year, so at a backable price, back the Eels straight-up.

Tip: Back the Eels To Win @ $1.80

Des Hasler’s side put an end to their two-game skid last week holding on for a narrow 22-20 win over the Cowboys up North.

Manly still find themselves inside the top eight, but they’ll need to be wary of a Dragons side looking to regain some form after earning a much-needed win themselves last week over the Dogs.

St. George became somewhat of an afterthought during their previous five-game losing streak, but with the competition razor tight, suddenly the Dragons are a win away from rejoining the top eight should results go their way.

With four straight losses to the Dragons, you can expect the Sea Eagles to treat St. George with plenty of respect this week. Manly lost 12-10 to the Dragons back in Round 6, a game that saw the Sea Eagles dominate possession but not the scoreboard.

With the Brookvale advantage this time around, the Sea Eagles have been installed as the favourite to improve on their 4-3 record at home. Despite their recent dominance in this fixture, the Dragons have won only one of their last three trips to face the Sea Eagles away from home.

The bookies have sided with Manly this week, and it’s hard to argue considering the Dragons are 5-5 on the back of a win over the last 12 months. Ben Hunt enjoyed a brilliant week overall last week, but that mightn’t be enough against a Manly side that allow very few cheap opportunities around their own try line.

Tip: Back Manly 1-12 @ $3.10

Having now lost three straight games, it’s safe to say the reigning premiers have a serious case of the wobbles following last week’s 19-10 loss to the Panthers in Penrith.

Sydney has managed only 32-points across their last three matches, marking Sunday’s game against the Bulldogs a must-win if the Chooks hold any hope of repeating as minor premiers.

The Bulldogs have plenty on the line themselves this week as the cellar dwellers occupy the bottom of the ladder. On their day Canterbury are capable of upsetting anybody, but that wasn’t the case last week as the Dogs lost comfortably to the Dragons at home.

Last year these two played out a 6-0 game in Round 7, adding to the Roosters’ impressive four-game winning streak over the Dogs. Sydney’s recent form has been less than convincing, but keep in mind, the Roosters are 7-3 as the home favourite against the Dogs.

This game really isn’t worth overcomplicating. The game isn’t played on paper, but the Roosters simply have too much talent and experience to allow a fourth game to slip through their fingertips.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90

2018

Big things come in small packages. With eight teams on a bye, Round 13’s four game slate featured a huge Rabbitohs upset over the Sharks, followed by a Sunday shocker as the Roosters took down the Tigers.

Looking forward, Round 14 sees all 16 teams return to action, and although lineups will be limited due to Origin duties, the 7th placed Storm taking on the 9th placed Broncos on Sunday shapes up as a can’t-miss.

As always, there’s a range of value to be had ahead of this weekend, and we have analysed each game closely. You can find our complete 2018 NRL Round 14 tips below.

Both teams finished Round 12 with a win and will be keen to keep the good times rolling following a week off.

The Panthers come into this one on a three game winning streak, including a huge shocker over the Dragons two week’s ago. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still fighting hard for a spot in the eight.

The Raiders hold the home ground advantage on Friday night, but it may not mean much.

Canberra have been just okay at home, winning four of their seven games, while the Panthers’ 3-2 record on the road sees them enter as the obvious favourite.

These two sides last met back in Round 24 last year, a game the Panthers won away from home 26-22. Nathan Cleary was particularly strong that day, scoring a first-half try and converting all four of his set shots. Making his Origin debut on Wednesday night for NSW, Penrith will need to find that same production elsewhere.

The Panthers hold an impressive 12-6 record in head-to-head markets on the back of a win. The last five encounters between these two teams have been decided by 10-points or less, so the margin market looks good value here.

Back Penrith 1-12 @ $3.10

By far the biggest surprise of Round 13 was the Rabbitohs triumph over the Sharks. Thanks to Tom Burgess’ brilliance, Souths still find themselves third on the ladder.

As expected, the early odds are heavily in favour of South Sydney following the Titans’ 20-point loss to the Roosters two weeks ago.

Gold Coast are a miserable 5-14 as the head-to-head underdogs over the last 12 months.

Souths dominance over the last five weeks can’t be stressed enough, though – they’ve kept their last five opponents to under 20-points.

To add further confidence, the Rabbitohs have also won three of their past five encounters with the Titans.

Although we should expect some upsets with teams limited due to Origin duties, this probably isn’t the game to back. Since Round 8 South Sydney has been piling on the points, and against a Gold Coast side lacking confidence, this spells another big win.

Back South Sydney 13+ @ $2.20

Talk about unexpected. No one saw Manly’s loss to the Cowboys coming, as Antonio Winterstein tormented the Sea Eagles’ defence for the better part of 80 minutes last week.

Next up: the Warriors. New Zealand’s slow fall from grace continued two week’s ago with a big loss to South Sydney, but a week off should have provided a nice mental break for a team still sitting just inside the Top 4.

The good news for the Warriors is the home ground advantage, but as history shows, nothing is a given against the Sea Eagles.

New Zealand are 4-3 as the head-to-head favourite, but the Warriors haven’t beaten Manly since 2013.

With back-to-back losses to the Raiders and now the Cowboys, the Sea Eagles’ two game losing streak puts them in jeopardy of slipping further towards the bottom of the ladder.

This game is tough to get a read on given the recent history between the two and some spotty form from both sides.

Manly’s 1-6 record away from home makes them a dangerous gamble this week though, one punters should look to steer clear of.

Back New Zealand To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)

All of a sudden the Roosters look dangerous. Sunday’s gutsy win over the Tigers has them placed sixth on the ladder, and with Origin on this week, a game against a hot/cold looking Knights outfit couldn’t have come at a better time.

For all of their troubles, Newcastle surprised last week with a resounding 30-4 victory over the Eels. Kalyn Ponga bounced back in star-like fashion converting five of his six set shots, an effort which bodes well for a future Origin nomination.

The market is heavily in favour of the Roosters here, and it’s no wonder why. Sydney have won nine of the last 10 encounters between these two.

Punters should be especially careful not to read too much into Newcastle’s win last week, after all, it came against the lowly Eels. To make matters worse, Newcastle sit 2-6 as home underdogs in the head-to-head market.

Despite last week, the Roosters remain a tough read – they’re capable of blowout wins one moment and close, low scoring affairs the next. For those more daring, the margin market looks an interesting play, but tipping Sydney to beat the line seems safe.

Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)

Now this is a tough one.

The Cowboys looked fierce on attack last week, scoring in quick succession in both the first and second half, but it’s still tough to trust North Queensland, even against the future wooden-spooners.

The Eels, meanwhile, are back to their old tricks. Josh Hoffman’s 74th minute try saved Parra from complete embarrassment against the Knights, but is there really any chance of an upset here at home?

Parramatta’s 3-2 record as the head-to-head underdog in home games might look enticing, but history says stay well away. The Eels have won just three of their past 10 encounters with the Cowboys, having managed just six points against North Queensland in Round 14 last year.

Making things worse, the Eels’ 2-4 record in home games this season doesn’t exactly instill much confidence. Still, with limited squads this week, anything goes, and if there’s going to be an upset, this might be it. Hold on to your money and avoid this one.

No Bet

Sunday kicks off with a bang between the Sharks and the Tigers. Both teams are on the back of narrow losses, and since both have shifted down the ladder, this game packs serious finals implications.

The Sharks came close to pulling off the comeback last weekend against Souths, but the damage was already done in the first half thanks to two unanswered tries.

Wests were also hard done by not to walk away with a win over Sydney, but Daniel Tupou alone was too good for the Tigers.

We’re now left with a potential blockbuster on Sunday, a game that heavily favours the Sharks to return to form.

Cronulla has won four of the last five encounters against Wests, but despite coming in at $1.50, the Sharks’ 4-11 record as line favourites shows there’s some sneaky value in the underdog Tigers.

Having now fallen out of the eight, the Tigers have had a tough run, but there is equal concern when it comes to backing Wests – they are an ugly 2-4 away from home.

These two have played out some pretty close clashes in recent years, with Cronulla getting up 24-22 in Round 15 last year. With that in mind, take the Tigers at the line.

Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)

Thanks to the Tigers, the Broncos find themselves back in the eight entering Round 14. The week break should have served Brisbane well following a 18-10 victory over the Eels two week’s ago.

The ladder was equally kind to the Storm, who moved from seventh into fifth with the week off, but Melbourne will need to put up a convincing victory on Sunday if they wish to stay in touch with the Top 4.

This is far and away the game of the round, even if the market looks a little lopsided.

The Storm have been almost unbeatable at home, losing just twice at AAMI Park so far. They’ve also won 12 games as the home head-to-head favourite over the last 12 months.

For Brisbane to win, they need to keep the pressure on the Storm for a full 80-minutes. These two last met in Round 7, a game that saw the Broncos open the scoring within the first five minutes, only to then allow three unanswered tries to the Storm before half time.

Brisbane are 2-8 as the away underdogs vs. the Storm, with their last taste of AAMI Park coming during Week 3 of the Finals last year – a game the Broncos lost 30-0.

Back Melbourne 13+ @ $2.38

There’s nothing like Monday arvo footy, although it’s hardly a blockbuster. Two teams fresh from a rest meet up at ANZ Stadium, with both looking to bounce back from tough losses in Round 12.

You might be surprised to learn the Dragons have lost their last six against the Bulldogs, with their last win dating all the way back to 2015.

You might also be surprised to learn the Dragons are 7-3 in the head-to-head market on the back of a loss.

Of course, things are different this year, as the Dogs 2-2 record at home suggests, and there’s plenty of reasons this one could be close.

Despite Canterbury losing three of its last four, the Dogs have kept in touch with their opponents, losing by margins of two, four and six points. It’ll be tough to stop one of the Top 5 scoring teams in the league on Sunday, but since the Dragons will be missing a few key components, St. George 1-12 looks like good value.

Back St. George 1-12 @ $2.75

2017

Round 13 of the 2017 NRL season was packed full of entertaining finishes and we are set for another exciting round of action.

The round begins with a Grand Final rematch between the Cronulla Sharks and the Melbourne Storm and there are intriguing story lines in every single game.

We have closely analysed every game set to take place this weekend and you can find our complete 2017 NRL Round 14 tips below.

This is the second NRL Grand Final rematch between the Cronulla Sharks and the Melbourne Storm and at this stage they cannot be separated in betting.

Not only is this a Grand Final rematch, but also a top of the table clash and the Sharks could potentially leapfrog Melbourne on top of the table with a big win.

It is Cronulla that go into this clash with the home-ground advantage, but their form away from home has actually been better than their form at Southern Cross Group Stadium.

The Sharks have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are a particularly poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne have won five of their past six games and they will be keen to avenge their loss to the Sharks earlier this season.

The Storm have won 11 of their past 13 games away from home for a big profit and they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne can’t be matched by any side in the NRL when they are at their best and they are the value bet to account for Cronulla this weekend.

Back Melbourne Storm To Win @ $1.90

Manly have won four of their past five games and they will go into this clash with the Newcastle Knights as clear favourites.

The Sea Eagles were poor in the second half against the Canberra Raiders, but they were still able to come away with the victory and they just keep finding a way to win this season.

Manly have won their past six games against the Newcastle Knights and they are 3-2 against the line as home favourites.

Newcastle were no match for the Melbourne Storm last weekend and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against Manly.

The Knights have lost their past ten games as away underdogs and they are a losing 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

These are the games that Manly really need to win to secure a top eight finish and I expect them to get the job done fairly comfortably.

Back Manly To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)

The Brisbane Broncos are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend in the NRL.

The Broncos have lost two games on the trot, but they were undermanned against the New Zealand Warriors and a touch unlucky against the Sydney Roosters.

Brisbane were definitely lucky to beat South Sydney earlier this season, but they have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites for a narrow profit.

South Sydney went into their bye on the back of a loss to the Parramatta Eels and although they have won only one of their past six games, their form has been as bad as their record suggests.

The Rabbitohs have won four of their last seven games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are a most impressive 6-1 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney have shown this season that they are capable of competing with the best sides in the competition and they are a great bet to cover the line with a healthy start.

Back South Sydney To Beat The Line (+11.5 Points)

The Gold Coast Titans have lost two games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash with the New Zealand Warriors as narrow favourites.

It is tough to know what to make of the Titans’ performance against the North Queensland Cowboys as they were brave defensively, but offered very little in attack.

Gold Coast have won only three of their past six games as home favourites for a loss and they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

New Zealand did beat Gold Coast earlier this season, but the Warriors have won just two of their past seven games and continue to be very tough to trust from a betting standpoint.

The Warriors have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The market looks to have got this clash just about right and this is a game that I am more than happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

The Penrith Panthers and Canberra Raiders have arguably been the two most disappointing teams in the NRL this season and this is a vital game for both sides.

Penrith made it three wins on the trot with a demolition job of the Canterbury Bulldogs and it is fair to say that was their best performance of the season to date.

The Panthers have won 13 of their 19 games as favourites to basically break even and they are 10-9 against the line when giving away a start.

Canberra once again suffered a golden point defeat at the hands of Manly last weekend and there really are some severe question marks over this side heading into the second half of the season.

The Raiders have won two of their past five games as underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 5-0 against the line when giving away a start.

This could be a very tight game and I am keen to back the Raiders with the insurance of a 1.5 point start.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (+1.5 Points)

This is a tricky game to analyse from a betting standpoint as the participation of Johnathan Thurston is still up in the air.

The North Queensland Cowboys didn’t need Thurston to beat the Gold Coast Titans last weekend and they have actually played some quality football without Thurston over the past month.

Their worst performance without Thurston came against the Parramatta Eels and they surely can’t play as poorly as they did in that game again.

Parramatta were too good for the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they have now won five of their past seven games.

The Eels have elected to take their home game to TIO Stadium in the Northern Territory and they have actually won all three of their games in Darwin, while the Cowboys did beat the Sydney Roosters at the venue in 2012.

It is tough to get a proper read on this game until we get a clearer indication of Thurston’s injury status and at this stage this is a game that I am happy to stay out of.

No Bet

The Wests Tigers have lost four games on the trot and it is the Sydney Roosters that will start this clash as clear favourites.

Sydney survived a late scare to take the two points from their clash with the Brisbane Broncos and they were able to move back into the top four with that victory.

The Roosters have won five of their past seven games as away favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

Wests were not disgraced against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend, but they have still not won a game in well over a month.

The Tigers have won three of their past ten games as home underdogs and they really are tough to have any faith in from a betting standpoint.

The real value in this clash is in the Total Points betting market.

The Under has saluted in seven of the past ten home games played by the Tigers and backing the Under in Roosters games has also proven to be a profitable betting play.

Back The Under

The Canterbury Bulldogs’ season hit a new low last weekend and it should come as no surprise that the St George Illawarra Dragons will start this clash as clear favourites.

St George made it two wins on the trot when they beat the Wests Tigers on Saturday and their record as favourites this season is outstanding.

The Dragons have won their past seven games as the punter’s elect for a clear profit and they are 2-0 against the line as away underdogs.

Canterbury were nothing short of disgraceful against the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they really are a side that are in the middle of a crossroads.

They have won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit, but it is very tough to trust them on the back of their last-start effort.

This is another game where the value really lies in the Total points betting market.

Scoring points has been a real issue for Canterbury and St George Illawarra are not the type of side that come out and blow away their rivals.

Back The Under

2016

We are now past the halfway mark of the NRL season and there are a number of exciting games set to take place this weekend.

There is plenty of history between the Wests Tigers and South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are set to do battle in a Friday Night Blockbuster before the Sydney Roosters host the Melbourne Storm on Saturday night.

St George and Canterbury will face off in a finals rematch on Sunday afternoon, while the Cronulla Sharks tackle the North Queensland Cowboys in another finals rematch in Monday Night Football.

The Brisbane Broncos have hit the type of form slump that they have not seen since Wayne Bennett returned to the club at the start of last season and they have now lost four out of their past five games.

They had a number of State Of Origin players backing up against the New Zealand Warriors last week, but that was still no excuse for their uninspired performance and they were truly awful on both sides of the football.

They will still go into this game as clear favourites and although that are now a losing head to head betting proposition in this scenario, they remain 9-5 against the line as home favourites.

The Canberra Raiders made it three wins on the trot with their impressive victory over Manly last Friday night and they will go into this contest with a great deal of confidence.

The Raiders are 4-4 as away favourites for a tidy profit, while they have beaten the line in six of their past eight games in this situation.

The line currently on offer for this game does seem excessive and the Raiders can give the Broncos a real scare.

Recommended Bet: Back The Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (+10.5 Points)

This is a key game for these sides as they are both coming off losses last weekend.

South Sydney looked as though they had got their season back on track with back-to-back wins over Parramatta and St George Illawarra, but they let slip a golden opportunity to make it three wins on the trot against the Gold Coast Titans.

They will still go into this game as favourites, but they have won just ten of their past 24 games as the punter’s elect and their record against the line when giving away a start is 8-1-15.

Wests Tigers had their own two game winning streak snapped by the Sydney Roosters, but they will go into this game with some confidence.

The Tigers have actually been a profitable team as underdogs across the board over the past 12 months and they have actually performed better without Robbie Farah in the side – with the New South Wales hooker set to start on the bench this weekend.

Taking on the Rabbitohs has generally proven to be a positive play so far this season and there is definitely value in the price available for a Tigers win.

Recommended Bet: Back The Wests Tigers To Win @ $2.65

The New Zealand Warriors will go into this game as clear favourites after they produced their best performance of the season to date against the Brisbane Broncos last weekend.

The Warriors showed everybody just what they are capable of with the ball in hand, but their problem has been consistency and they need to do produce that level of football every week to be a genuine force.

New Zealand actually have a surprisingly good record as away favourites and they have beaten the line in three of their four games in this position, but across the board they have not proven to be a profitable betting team either away from home or as favourites.

Newcastle Knights suffered another heavy defeat at the hands of the North Queensland Cowboys and they have now lost seven games on the trot.

They have won just one of their past six games as home favourites, but they are a credible 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

Both these sides are incredibly difficult to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this fixture.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Parramatta Eels have struggled against the Gold Coast since the Titans entered the competition in 2007 and they have won just one of the past six games played between the two sides.

Their form since the salary cap drama exploded has been very poor and they only narrowly beat the Knights in their final game before heading on the bye.

The Eels look likely to go into this game as narrow underdogs and they have been a narrow winning proposition in this scenario, but their record against the line is a middling 4-4.

The Titans made it three wins in a row with their thrilling victory over the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are now genuine finals contenders.

Their home form is the only thing stopping Gold Coast from taking the next step and they have won just three of their past 12 games away from home, while this will be the first away game in the past 12 months that they are likely to start as favourites.

What does need to be taken into consideration is their outstanding record against the Eels and they have won six of their past eight games against their rivals as the punter’s elect.

Gold Coast just keep on winning football games and they are a good bet to make it four wins in a row against the struggle Eels.

Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans To Win @ $1.80

The Melbourne Storm continued their winning run with a typically professional performance against the Penrith Panthers and they are clear favourites to make it six wins on the trot.

Melbourne have really settled into their game plan at this stage of the season and there is plenty of evidence that they will prove far too strong for the out of form Roosters side.

The Storm have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a tidy profile and they are a middling 3-3 against the line.

The return of their big guns has not had the positive effect that was expected for the Sydney Roosters, but they were able to return to winning form against the Wests Tigers last weekend.

Winning games as favourites has not been a problem, but when the market doesn’t expect them to win they don’t and they have lost their past three games as away favourites.

Melbourne have won five of their past nine games by a margin between 1-12 and a similar result looks likely in this fixture.

Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Storm To Win By 1-12 @ $3

This is a crucial game for both sides as they desperately need a win to get themselves back into finals contention.

Manly produced another uninspiring performance against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they are set to go into this clash without the likes of Daly Cherry-Evans, Jamie Lyon, Brenton Lawrence and Steve Matai.

Because of these injuries they will start this game as heavy underdogs and they are an uninspiring 2-4 when given a start in front of their home fans.

Penrith were never able to get into the game against the Melbourne Storm, but this is obviously a much easier assignment.

The Panthers have only start three games as away favourites in the past 12 months and they have lost two of them, while they are 3-14 against the line when given their opposition a start.

This is another match in which it is tough to trust either team from a betting perspective and I am happy to let this game go through to the keeper.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Canterbury Bulldogs suffered a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Cronulla Sharks last Monday night, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form against the St George Illawarra Dragons.

Canterbury have been fairly inconsistent this season and have struggled defensively at times this season, but they are still 5-2 as away favourites in the past 12 months and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

St George Illawarra beat a highly-depleted North Queensland side before they went on the bye, but stringing together back-to-back wins has been an issue and they have done it on just three occasions in the past 12 months.

The Dragons do have an excellent record at WIN Stadium and they have won their past two games at the venue as underdogs for a sizeable profit, while they have covered the line in five of their nine games this season to date.

Although it is tough to pick the winner, a low-scoring game looks extremely likely in this one and the under has saluted in eight of the past 11 home games played by the Dragons, while the under is 9-5 when the Bulldogs are on the road.

Recommended Bet: Back The Under (38.5 Points)

This is easily the game of the round in the NRL and could be a Grand Final Preview.

The Sharks are the form team in the competition and they secured their ninth straight victory with a thrilling win over Canterbury last weekend, while the North Queensland Cowboys returned to winning form against the Newcastle Knights and they have won six of their past seven games with a full strength side.

The market cannot separate these two teams and it is easy to see why.

Cronulla have won 10 of their past 12 games in front of their home fans and they have developed Shark Park into a genuine fortress, while the Cowboys have won the past two clashes between the two sides and they beat the Sharks by 39 points in the second round of the finals last year.

The home ground advantage does give the Sharks the edge and when you add in the fact that the Cowboys may elect to rest the likes of Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott, they are definitely the value selection.

Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Win @ $1.90