Everything we thought we knew about a host of NRL teams after the opening was tipped on its head in a wild Round 2.  

This weekend’s massive schedule kicks off with a grand final rematch and features a big clash in Auckland and a Queensland derby on Friday, and three winless teams looking to get off the mark at home on Saturday and Sunday.  

Manly and Canberra close out the round in a mouth-watering Sunday night showdown.  

See below for our best bets and tips across Round 3 of the 2025 NRL season!

Melbourne and Penrith come together for the first time since the Panthers clinched a fourth consecutive premiership with a gripping 14-6 grand final win over the Storm.  

The Storm are coming off the Round 2 bye after eviscerating Parramatta 56-18 a week earlier, putting the cue in the rack with 20 minutes left – but not before Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates had scored two each of the Storm’s 10 tries.  

Will Warbrick (concussion) is replaced on the wing by the very able Grant Anderson in the Storm’s only change, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona is listed in the reserves as he eyes his first NRL appearance since copping a preliminary final suspension.  

The Panthers have made a patchy start to the season, which has become something of a familiar trend. They held off Cronulla 28-22 in Las Vegas but were stunned 38-32 by the Roosters as $1.04 favourites.  

It’s too early to say whether the loss of James Fisher-Harris and Jarome Luai is having an effect, but there are a couple of danger signs.  

Daine Laurie replaces injured fullback Dylan Edwards, which sees Brad Schneider come is as the bench utility. Isaiah Papali’i also returns on the interchange with Matt Eisenhuth dropping out.  

The Storm won both regular-season encounters last season, 8-0 in the opening round and 24-22 at Penrith with the Panthers hit by a mid-game injury to Nathan Cleary. Overall, the Panthers have won six of the heavyweights’ last nine encounters.  

Shortening to $3 for the title already, premiership favourite Melbourne has a point to prove. But Penrith remains the benchmark, was hardly terrible last week and have only lost consecutive games three times in the past five seasons.  

As $3.35 underdogs, the Panthers – despite the loss of Edwards – are great value to send this down to the wire at the very least.  

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.10 

After jarring Round 1 losses, the Warriors and Sydney Roosters produced major boilovers last Friday. A week later, the sides square off in a suddenly fascinating clash at Mount Smart Stadium.  

The Warriors put a timid Las Vegas showing against Canberra behind them with a rousing 36-16 home upset of firepower-laden Manly.  

Aggressive line speed, completions and energy through the middle allowed halves Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita to thrive, while hooker Wayde Egan flourished behind a dominant forward display.  

Alarm bells were ringing following the Roosters’ 50-14 loss to the Broncos, but the $11 longshots rolled the Panthers 38-32 in Round 2. James Tedesco and Connor Watson starred, but a no-name pack were the real heroes, while the Roosters’ new-look centre pairing continues to shine.  

The news gets better for the Roosters with Lindsay Collins, Victor Radley and Spencer Leniu all returning for the trip across the ditch. Salesi Foketi received a two-game suspension for a high tackle so will miss out.  

The Roosters have won eight straight against the Warriors and held their hosts to nil in their last two visits to Mount Smart Stadium.

A blistering start saw the Tricolours cruise to a 38-18 win at home in Round 10 last season.  

The Roosters went 7-3 outside Sydney last season, while last week’s win was just the Warriors’ fifth in 10 matches at Mount Smart since the start of 2024.

But it the unchanged home side can replicate the defensive urgency they showed against Manly, they should hold on in this pick ’em.  

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win @ $1.87 

SGM: BACK EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / TAINE TUAUPIKI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MARK NAWQANITAWASE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.66 

Brisbane Broncos get an opportunity to bounce back from a Round 2 reality check in their first Suncorp Stadium outing of 2025, hosting a North Queensland Cowboys side that is in all sorts.  

The Broncos looked every bit the title contender in a sizzling 50-14 win over the Roosters in Round 1, but they had no answer to the aggressive Raiders in a 32-22 loss last Saturday. The Broncos completed at a dismal 64 percent and Reece Walsh had a night to forget.  

Maguire has stuck solid with the same 17, though crack centre Kotoni Staggs lurks in the reserves as he eyes a return from a quad injury.  

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are reeling from back-to-back thrashings at Manly (42-12) and at home to Cronulla (36-12). Defence has been an obvious weakness, while attacking impetus outside of mercurial fullback Scott Drinkwater has been sorely lacking.  

Jason Taumalolo bolsters a struggling pack at prop in his first appearance of the season, while Jeremiah Nanai is back from a week in Queensland Cup purgatory. Jake Clifford (hernia) returns at the expense of rookie No.7 Tom Duffy and Robert Derby comes in for injured winger Braidon Burns.  

The Broncos have won the last four derbies by margins of at least 12 points. In 2024, despite the clubs’ finishing positions, the Broncos romped to a 38-12 win at Suncorp in Round 4 and a 42-18 result in Townsville in Round 23.  

 This is a great match-up for the Broncos, who will be desperate to atone for last week – and for conceding 131 points in their last three home matches in 2024.  

Back Walsh and co. to respond on the back of a rumbling Haas- and Carrigan-led engine-room that will meet much less resistance than the Raiders provided.  

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (-17.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: BRONCOS BY 21-30 POINTS / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH & SELWYN COBBO TO HAVE 3+ TRIES COMBINED / BRENDAN PIAKURA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.56 

With two narrow, gritty wins in the bank to kick off Wayne Bennett’s second coming at the club, South Sydney have a chance to make a real statement against a Cronulla side widely fancied as a top-four certainty.  

The Sharks were encouraged by a 28-22 loss to four-time champs Penrith in Las Vegas, before putting North Queensland to the sword 36-12 in Townsville. Will Kennedy and Nicho Hynes toyed with the Townsville defence as the Sharks’ myriad edge threats piled on the tries.  

The Sharks’ 17 is unchanged with Tuku Hau Tapuha on the bench and Tom Hazelton sidelined again.  

The undermanned Rabbitohs followed up a 16-14 eclipse of the Dolphins with a 25-24 comeback against the Dragons in Wollongong, rallying from 12 points down midway through the second half. Jye Gray, Sean Keppie and field goal match-winner Jamie Humphreys were the low-profile stars.  

Souths get Jack Wighton back in the centres, with Fletcher Myers pushing to the wing. Tallis Duncan is set to start at lock with Lachlan Hubner suspended, while Liam Le Blanc comes onto the bench.  

Cronulla is on a three-match winning run against Souths, with both Sharks wingers scored in all three matches. The Sharks prevailed 34-22 at Accor Stadium and 20-6 at home last season.  

The Sharks, 7-3 at their home ground in 2024, have been installed as $1.16 favourites. But the bolstered Rabbitohs have played with enough moxie and Bennett-infused belief to suggest this will be a Saturday afternoon dogfight in the Shire.  

Tip: Back Under 51.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: SHARKS WIN / RABBITOHS +17.5 / JYE GRAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAYAL IRO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.30 

The Dolphins are on the ropes early in the post-Wayne Bennett era, searching for their maiden win under Kristian Woolf at the expense of a rebuilding Wests Tigers side coming off a handsome victory.  

The 16-14 loss to Souths in Round 1 was perhaps understandable in the wake of their Cyclone Alfred disruptions, but the Dolphins barely turned up in a 26-12 defeat in Newcastle last Thursday.  

Individual highlights were even hard to come by with the team’s performance plagued by shaky goal-line defence and errors. Holding the Knights to a solitary second-half try provided a sliver of positivity. 

The Dolphins have named the same 17 but Jack Bostock and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki could both return by gameday.  

The Tigers were pipped 10-8 by the Knights in Round 1, but the assembling of their full-strength spine helped engineer a 32-6 demolition of hapless Parramatta last Sunday.  

Sunia Turuva finished with a hat-trick, while Lachie Galvin finished off a long-range special to go with two try assists. They’ll want to get off to better start here after a error-strewn opening quarter against the Eels, however.   

Jahream Bula (foot) is under an injury cloud in an unchanged line-up, with Heath Mason the likely replacement if required.  

The Dolphins have won two of their three matches against the Tigers to date, bouncing back from a late-season loss in 2023 with hard-fought 26-16 and 24-12 victories at Suncorp Stadium in 2024, the latter in Magic Round.  

The Dolphins are 4-2 at Kayo Stadium since their inception, while the Tigers are searching for their first win outside Sydney since Magic Round in 2023. Expect an improved showing from the Dolphins – but be wary of their status as narrow favourites.  

With neither team involved in a game producing more than 38 points so far this season, the under shapes as a viable play.  

Tip: Back Under 47.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: TIGERS WIN / 31-40 TOTAL POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SUNIA TURUVA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.58  

Newcastle Knights are warm favourites to go 3-0 to start a season for the first time since 2015, but there’s a Gold Coast bogey to overcome on Saturday night.  

The Knights have won five of their last six against the Titans – including a 28-24 Magic Round thriller and a 36-14 mismatch in Newcastle last season – but the Titans have won the last seven between the teams on the Gold Coast.  

The Knights’ last win at Cbus Super Stadium was, coincidentally, in Round 3 of 2015.  

Newcastle followed up a tense 10-8 win over the Tigers at Campbelltown in Round 1 with an authoritative 26-12 defeat of the Dolphins at home last Friday. Kalyn Ponga stole the show in both wins to take the early Dally M Medal lead, while Fletcher Sharpe has been an instant success at No.6.  

Brodie Jones and Adam Elliott are in the Knights’ starting side this week for injured pair Leo Thompson and Kai Pearce-Paul, with Thomas Cant joining the bench.  

Coming off the Round 1 bye, the Titans were caught on their heels against the Bulldogs at Belmore last Sunday – trailing 22-0 after 20 minutes. They fought back admirably but never genuinely threatened to make it a contest in a 40-24 loss, with a lack of direction in the halves a clear drawback.  

After scoring two tries last week, Alofiana Khan-Pereira (hamstring) has been ruled out. Tony Francis comes onto the wing, while Iszac Faasuamaleaui replaces Jaiman Joliffe on the interchange.  

Ponga is untouchable at present, providing the type of leadership and offensive impetus the Titans are missing with Kieran Foran sidelined. Meanwhile, the teams are poles apart defensively and it’s a surprise to see the Knights installed as only narrow $1.73 favourites.  

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-1.5) @ $1.85 

SGM: KNIGHTS BY 11-20 POINTS / OVER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $38.57 

Parramatta has made a diabolical start to the season under rookie coach Jason Ryles, with seemingly only a couple of injury setbacks for undefeated Round 3 opponents Canterbury offering a sliver of hope this Sunday.  

The Eels were lapped 56-18 in Melbourne in Round 1, but the nature of their sloppy 32-6 loss to three-time wooden spooners Wests Tigers was arguably more concerning. The engine-room is struggling, which makes it hard to get the most out of big guns Zac Lomax and Dylan Brown.  

Ryles already looks to be clutching at straws by dropping halfback Ronald Volkman for Dean Hawkins in the Eels’ only change. Josh Addo-Carr is among the reserves after serving his suspension for an off-field incident.  

The Bulldogs will be satisfied with their 2-0 start, though they eased off after establishing big leads in their wins over the Dragons (28-20) and Titans (40-24).  

The latter patchy win came at a big cost with trump cards Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau succumbing to knee injuries. Bailey Hayward will line up at five-eighth, while Sitili Tupouniua will start in the second-row, and Kurt Morrin and Daniel Suluka-Fifita join the bench.  

The Eels have won 14 of their last 18 against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs emerged from a four-match losing streak in the rivalry (each by margins of 18-plus) to edge the Eels 22-18 in Round 14 last year.  

Burton’s absence puts some pressure on halfback Toby Sexton, but the Bulldogs’ pack has been rolling along nicely and their backline firepower should have little trouble finding the same holes in the Eels’ defence that the Storm and Tigers did.  

Tip: Back Bulldogs Win / Over 46.5 Total Points Double @ $2.50 

SGM: BULLDOGS -9.5 / 41-50 TOTAL POINTS / CONNOR TRACEY & MARCELO MONTOYA TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED / JACOB PRESTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.21 

After a premiership-contender-worthy performance in Round 1, Manly Sea Eagles hurtled back to earth last weekend – with some major injury concerns to boot. They will attempt to regroup at home against early-season surprise packets Canberra Raiders.  

The Sea Eagles were on fire – particularly during the first half – of a 42-12 beatdown of the Cowboys. But impatience, poor execution and subpar goal-line resolve underpinned a 36-16 loss to the Warriors in Auckland last Friday.  

The result and performance was compounded by the early injury exits of marquee duo Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, but both have been named this weekend. Slick centre Tolu Koula and veteran prop Siosiua Taukeiaho also return for the Sea Eagles after missing the Auckland assignment.  

The Raiders were super-impressive in putting away the Warriors 30-8 in Vegas, but the absence of suspended duo Joe Tapine and Xavier Savage rendered them big home underdogs against flashy Brisbane.  

The Green Machine’s intensity across the park from the outset put them on course for a 32-22 win, however, with English debutant Matty Nicholson scoring two tries in the second-row, Corey Horsburgh outshining the Broncos’ superstar props and Seb Kris playing like a Dally M Centre of the Year.  

Savage is back (with Albert Hopoate dropping out) but Tapine has another week to serve, while Zac Hosking (hand) is ruled out. Trey Mooney joins the Raiders’ bench.  

Manly has won 10 of its last 14 overall against Canberra, but the Raiders have won their last two at 4 Pines Park – including a spectacular comeback from 20-0 down to win 26-24 last season. The Sea Eagles gained some revenge with a 48-24 victory in the capital later in the season.  

Trbojevic has an eye-watering record of 15 tries in 12 career matches against Canberra, crossing in each of the last five. But his fitness has to be a concern for Manly ahead of this one.  

The Raiders’ overachieving efforts to date and the return of Savage, combined with doubts over ‘Turbo’ and DCE, paint the plucky visitors as attractive outsiders in this one.  

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOLUTAU KOULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $38.42 

2024

It’s only Round 3, but three NRL coaches have already dropped the axe on their starting No.7s ahead of this weekend’s matches. 

Meanwhile, the injury absence of a couple of blue-chip halves clouds the grand final rematch on Thursday and a grudge match on Friday. 

The heat turns up on 2023 overachievers the Warriors and Newcastle, both searching for their first win of the season at home against unbeaten opponents. 

Less than six months after they produced arguably the greatest grand final of all time, Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos square off in a round-opening barnburner. 

The runaway favourites to contest the decider again this year, neither have fully hit their straps so far in 2024. Both were rolled by fellow heavyweights in Round 1 – the Broncos 20-10 by the Roosters in Vegas, the Panthers 8-0 by the Storm in Melbourne. 

But both bounced back with solid, if somewhat patchy, home wins last weekend. 

The Panthers overcame a narrow halftime deficit to dominate the second stanza, winning 26-18 with Izack Tago, Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo among the three-time premiers’ best. 

The Broncos rode Reece Walsh’s brilliance to a 28-18 win after clocking off early in the second half, though Selwyn Cobbo was a revelation at centre, Patrick Carrigan was a huge presence in the middle of the park and Brendan Piakura shone on the edge after a head knock cut his Vegas contribution short. 

Both sides have big outs: the Panthers have lost James Fisher-Harris with Lindsay Smith coming into the front-row and Matt Eisenhuth added to the bench, while Adam Reynolds is replaced by Jock Madden in the Broncos’ No.7. Payne Haas has been named in a boost for the visitors. 

The Broncos’ shock 13-12 win at Penrith (which ended a five-match losing streak at the ground) in Round 1 last year was the Panthers’ only loss in the teams’ last seven clashes. The Panthers grinded out a 15-4 victory over a Reynolds-less Broncos at Suncorp in Round 12. 

Reynolds’ absence sees the Broncos way out at $3.40 head-to-head.

But the Broncos have gone 5-3 without their linchpin over the past two season and covered the line in each of their last five matches as an underdog. 

The Panthers are 10-5 against the start since the beginning of 2023 but there’s still plenty of early-season rust about them and this shapes as a tight one. 

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the line (+8.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 37.5 TOTAL POINTS / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT SORENSEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $106.50 

The winless Warriors take a home game to Christchurch for the first time on the back of one of the all-time heartbreakers, hosting a Canberra Raiders side that has breezed through the opening two rounds. 

Following a disappointing 16-12 home loss to Cronulla, the Warriors rallied from a poor first half in Melbourne to turn a 12-point deficit into a 26-18 lead.

But two Storm tries in the last three minutes – including that match-winner to Xavier Coates – consigned them to a 30-26 defeat. 

Garnering the positives, a Warriors side missing three key first-choice players was superb after the break with Shaun Johnson pulling the strings, Taine Tuaupiki looking more and more comfortable at fullback and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak running in two tries. 

Wayde Egan has been named after missing the Melbourne trip, but it would not surprise to see him sit out at least another week. 

Canberra backed up their surprise 16-point win in Newcastle with a 32-12 cruise at home against Wests Tigers. Racing to a 14-0 lead in even time, the Raiders clocked off to concede two tries in three minutes but soon regained control. 

Recruit Zac Hosking had another blinder, while teenage five-eighth Ethan Strange was another standout as his combination with Jamal Fogarty finds its feet. 

The Raiders welcome back skipper Elliott Whitehead to a firing pack. Hosking drops back to the bench with Ata Mariota dropping out of the team. Seb Kris (concussion) is out, which sees Nick Cotric get a recall on the wing and Albert Hopoate shift back to centre. 

The Warriors won both encounters between the clubs last season – an dominant 36-14 result in front of a packed house in Canberra in Round 15, and a 21-20 eclipse in Auckland six weeks later via a Shaun Johnson field goal in golden point (after the hosts had suffered a late collapse not unlike last week). 

All the pressure is on the Warriors here – and they have the bizarrely bad record at alternate New Zealand venues of just 10 wins and a draw from 34 matches to contend with. They are 3-5 in Christchurch. 

Putting the first 35 minutes they produced at AAMI Park together for 80 minutes would be enough to overwhelm most teams, but the Raiders have their tails up and this has the makings of another nail-biter – six of these sides’ last 12 matches have been decided by a margin of four points or less. 

The away team has also covered the line in 12 of the last 13 Warriors-Raiders encounters. 

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS BY 1-12 / UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $88.12 

The latest edition of the most bitter rivalry in the NRL has been overshadowed by a massive selection call by under-pressure South Sydney coach Jason Demetriou. 

The Rabbitohs are reeling after back-to-back losses to Manly in Vegas (36-24) and the Broncos in Brisbane (28-18), with halfback Lachlan Ilias the Team List Tuesday fall guy. 

But Souths’ problems run far deeper: they have now conceded 26-plus points in 12 of their last 15 games, losing 11 of those. Meanwhile, the latest Latrell Mitchell drama reeks of a team without a united focus. 

Dean Hawkins – who has made six top-grade appearances over the past three seasons – has been thrown into the No.7 hotseat. Jack Wighton makes his club debut at centre at Richie Kennar’s expense, while Jacob Host comes into the second-row and Shaquai Mitchell drops out of the 17. 

Sydney Roosters kicked off the season with a gritty 20-10 Vegas win over the Broncos, but they took a step backwards in a 21-14 defeat to Manly. 

For all their attacking firepower on paper, the Roosters scored the third-least points in the comp last year and are yet to truly put it together offensively in 2024. A blue-chip three-quarter-line was exposed by the Sea Eagles last week, too. 

Luke Keary’s concussion sees Sandon Smith come into the halves for the Roosters, while Siua Wong has surprisingly been relegated with Nat Butcher to start and Angus Crichton joining the bench. Connor Watson slots into Smith’s No.14 spot on the interchange. 

After losing five of the previous six inner-city grudge matches, the Roosters took out both encounters last season – a 20-18 thriller at Allianz Stadium in Round 3 and a stirring 26-12 result in Round 27 that saw them leapfrog the Rabbitohs into the finals. 

Amazingly, just one of their last 10 showdowns were decided by less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs are on a nine-match run of failing to cover the line. 

Wighton could be the circuit-breaker Souths desperately need, but the Roosters are better placed to take out this derby. 

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.03 

Super Saturday kicks off with two clubs under early pressure and desperate to get a win on the board. 

Canterbury has shown signs of genuine defensive resilience in losses to Parramatta (26-8) and Cronulla (25-6) but appears to be the NRL’s most impotent attacking outfit with a new-look spine struggling to unlock the top-class weapons – most notably Stephen Crichton – outside them. 

Despite crying out for positional adjustments, the Bulldogs’ only change sees Liam Knight come in for concussed front-rower Poasa Faamausili. 

Des Hasler’s Gold Coast side had the bye to mull over arguably the worst performance of the opening round, spanked 28-4 at home by St George Illawarra. An injury-hit spine battled behind a disappointing high-profile pack, while arguably their most dangerous player, AJ Brimson, looked wasted at centre. 

The Titans are bolstered by Kieran Foran’s return, which sees Tom Weaver drop out of an otherwise unchanged 17 from Round 1. 

The Titans are 12-11 against the Bulldogs since entering the NRL – one of just two positive rivalry ledgers they enjoy – but honours were shared in 2023. The Bulldogs snatched a 20-18 result at home with a late flurry, while the Titans prevailed 34-30 at home in the last round. 

Gold Coast’s strengths in 2023 – the platform laid by the likes of Fa’ausuamaelaui and Fotuaika for a backline dripping with speed – are the areas Canterbury remains weakest. While the jury is still out on Hasler’s version of the Titans, they look the best option as a slight outsider against the battling Dogs. 

Tip: Back the Titans to Win @ $1.96 

SGM: OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 12.5 POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / VILIAME KIKAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $41.11 

St George Illawarra Dragons are attempting to regroup from a massive reality check as they gear up for their first home game of 2024 against unbeaten North Queensland Cowboys. 

The Saints were on top of the world after Round 1 following what was seemingly a trajectory-changing 28-4 win over the Titans…only to collapse 38-0 in a flaccid display against the Dolphins. 

The Cowboys blitzed the Dolphins 43-18 in their opening assignment before getting out of jail against the Knights at home, coming back from 12-0 down at halftime, forcing golden point with a late try and getting up via a Chad Townsend field goal. 

The Dragons have lost Francis Molo to suspension, meaning Jack de Belin will move to prop and Luciano Leilua comes into the back-row. Viliame Fifita returns to the bench and Jesse Marschke debuts in the place of concussed hooker Jacob Liddle. 

Cowboys second-rower Heilum Luki (ankle) is set for a stint on the sidelines, giving Kulikefu Finefeuiaki a starting opportunity and Jack Gosiewski an interchange call-up. 

The Cowboys are on a four-match winning streak against the Dragons, averaging 36 points per game in the process. Tom Dearden and Kyle Feldt bagged doubles in the teams’ sole 2023 meeting, a 42-22 thrashing in Townsville. 

The Cowboys are $1.44 favourites but are looking to shed a familiar travel bogey after going 2-6 outside Queensland last season. The Dragons went 3-2 at Netstrata Jubilee in 2023 and showed enough in Round 1 to suggest they will make it in an unwelcoming venue for Todd Payten’s side. 

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / TOM DEARDEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MOSESE SULI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $36.51 

Benji’s head coaching debut didn’t exactly go according to plan – and it doesn’t get any easier for Cronulla Sharks with a clash against in-form Cronulla Sharks at CommBank Stadium. 

The Tigers were left in the starting blocks by Canberra, conceding two early tries before finding their feet. Some further ordinary defence consigned them to a 12-point halftime deficit and ultimately a 32-12 loss. 

Marshall has promoted Aidan Sezer to the starting halfback role and moved Jayden Sullivan to the bench. Justin Olam makes his club debut in the place of injured Starford To’a, while Fonua Pole will run on at lock with Alex Seyfarth benched. 

The Sharks have started 2024 with newfound resolve, following up a gutsy 16-12 comeback win over the Warriors in Auckland with a fast-finishing 25-6 defeat of the Bulldogs. 

Nicho Hynes has typified the Sharks’ defensive improvement, while he actually deserved the Dally M votes in Round 2 with a polished all-round performance. Teig Wilton is another to have started the year on fire, while the Cronulla backline remains as dangerous as ever. 

The Sharks will be without the suspended Briton Nikora, with Jack Williams coming into the back-row. Royce Hunt is back from a virus and Billy Burns replaces Tuku Hau Tapuha on the interchange. 

The Sharks have won 10 of their last 11 against the Tigers, including the last four straight by margins of 24-plus points. Sione Katoa has scored seven tries in his last three games against the Tigers – including a hat-trick in a 36-12 beatdown at CommBank in 2023, their only meeting last season. 

Olam adds some starch and experience, while the Tigers should be more stable with Sezer starting alongside the promising Lachie Galvin. But the Sharks are set to subject the dual wooden spooners to more short-term pain. 

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 13+ @ $1.90 

SGM: SHARKS BY 16-20 / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.68 

A huge Sunday afternoon showdown between two of last season’s also-rans who have started 2024 in promising fashion. 

Parramatta followed up a 26-8 cruise against Canterbury with an encouraging 26-18 away loss to Penrith, fighting back to lead at halftime before being held scoreless after the break. Dylan Brown has started the year in fine touch while J’maine Hopgood is making a beeline for an Origin debut. 

Bailey Simonsson’s head knock sees Morgan Harper shift to the wing and Blaize Talagi make his NRL debut at centre. Luca Moretti replaces Brendan Hands on the bench. 

Manly has been the big mover in the premiership market after a 2-0 start, surging to the fifth line of betting at $12. 

Luke Brooks has grabbed the headlines in wins over Souths (36-24) and the Roosters (21-14), but Haumole Olakau’atu, Tom and Jake Trbojevic, and Daly Cherry-Evans are living up to their marquee billing, while more modest front-row and three-quarter line contingents are punching above their weight. 

Tommy Talau, injured during a strong club debut last week, has been named in the reserves with Raymond Tuaimalo Vaega coming in on the wing in the Sea Eagles’ only change. 

Parramatta has won 12 of its last 18 against Manly, including three of the last four. In 2023, the Sea Eagles won a Round 3 try-fest 34-30 at home, while the Eels breezed to a 34-4 victory at CommBank in Round 16 with Origin players absent. 

The Eels boast an outstanding 40-15 all-time record at CommBank, which might be just enough to lean their way in this pick ’em. But expect the rivalling star-studded spines to take their teams down to the wire. 

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by less than 6.5 points @ $2.60 

SGM: EELS WIN / EELS OVER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS / SEA EAGLES OVER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.73 

Newcastle Knights’ stirring late-season 2023 charge is rapidly becoming a distant memory – which makes the flying Melbourne Storm’s visit all the more daunting. But the Storm are missing multiple superstars, while the Knights have made a massive selection call. 

Adam O’Brien dropped a mini-bombshell by axing halfback Jackson Hastings and promoting Jack Cogger. Jayden Brailey returns from injury in the bench spot previously occupied by Cogger, while Enari Tuala is back from injury on the wing in the place of Greg Marzhew (hand). 

Jahrome Huhges (suspension) adds to the NRL’s No.7 attrition rate this week. Tyran Wishart has been named at halfback alongside the impressive Jonah Pezet with Cameron Munster still sidelined. Christian Welch (head knock) is also out, giving Tepai Moeroa a spot on the bench. 

The Knights appeared to respond well to a pancake-flat home loss to the Raiders, powering to a double-digit lead in Townsville with Adam Elliott on fire. But they let the Cowboys back into the contest and ultimately went down in golden point. 

The Storm, meanwhile, backed up their stirring 8-0 shutout of Penrith with one of the all-time great escapes to pip the Warriors 30-26 in Round 2. 

How they let an 18-6 halftime lead slip will concern Craig Bellamy…but the manner in which they grabbed two tries in the last three minutes to win it screamed title contenders. Ryan Papenhuyzen has made a blistering start to 2024, while Nick Meaney is thriving at centre. 

Newcastle’s 26-18 victory over Melbourne in Round 21 last season snapped a 10-match losing streak (with an average margin of 25.8) in the rivalry. 

The Storm struggled a bit on the road last season, going just 6-8 away from Melbourne. But the absence of both frontline halves pairing has pushed them front certain favourites to narrow outsiders – which is hard to resist against a Knights side with its own disruptions and in shaky form. 

Tip: Back Melbourne to Win @ $2.05 

SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NICK MEANEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $61.24 

2022

It’s been a whirlwind opening fortnight in the 2022 NRL premiership and the heat cranks up another level this week.

Three mouth-watering derbies headline the Round 3 docket, while Penrith and Newcastle will face off to remain unbeaten and Wests Tigers and the Warriors do battle in what already feels like a potential wooden-spoon playoff.

Manly and Canberra are also under the pump leading into respective home assignments. See where the value lies across eight fascinating fixtures.

St George Illawarra and Cronulla head into one of the NRL’s great grudge matches with a handy win and a narrow loss apiece under their belts.

The Dragons could arguably take more from staying in the fight in a 20-16 loss to the Panthers in Round 2 than from their streaky 28-16 season-opening win over the Warriors. The Saints forced a grandstand finish against the premiers despite a pair of controversial sin-bin calls against them.

But Andrew McCullough (elbow) has been ruled out with injury, while George Burgess drops out of the side amid an investigation over an off-field incident. Moses Mbye moves to hooker with Jackson Ford and Jack Gosiewski joining the bench.

The Sharks bounced back from finishing on the wrong side of a Canberra thriller with an after-the-bell triumph over the Eels. Gun recruit Nicho Hynes was far more polished in his second game for the club and iced a man-of-the-match performance with the game-winning conversion.

Impressive second-rower Teig Wilton scored the late leveller but will miss this clash through suspension, replaced in the pack by Siosifa Talakai. Matt Ikuvalu returns on the wing for Ronaldo Mulitalo (head knock). Braydon Trindall returns from suspension on the bench.

The Sharks have won five of the last six southern Sydney derbies – including a pair of victories at Jubilee Oval in Round 1 (32-18) and Round 11 (13-12) last season.

The battle between dynamic No.7s Hynes and Ben Hunt will be decisive in a clash between two line-ups that look evenly matched across the board. It’s hard to argue with Cronulla being slight favourites but the archrivals seem destined to go to the wire in Wollongong.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less than 6.5 Points @ $2.50

SGM: SHARKS 1-12 / UNDER 37.5 POINTS / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $9.22

Michael Maguire is inching ever closer to the coaching plank – but Warriors counterpart Nathan Brown could enter the ‘first coach to be sacked’ conversation if his team can’t put away ‘Madge’s’ beleaguered Wests Tigers.

Both clubs are 0-2, though the Tigers have been hogging the negative spotlight after an insipid 26-4 loss to the Knights that probably should have finished a lot worse on the scoreboard.

They were outrun on Sunday to the tune of 500 metres, Luke Brooks is struggling and halves partner Jackson Hastings – the Tigers’ most constructive player – has been suspended for three weeks. Veteran prop James Tamou and first-choice hooker Jacob Liddle bolster the Tigers’ line-up this week.

The Warriors have fought back from double-digit deficits to lead in the second half against both the Dragons and Titans but have been unable to finish the job. With Shaun Johnson missing among others, the 22-20 defeat on the Gold Coast last Saturday was somewhat encouraging.

Jesse Arthars made a strong club debut, the attack looks more potent with Reece Walsh back and middle forwards Fonua-Blake, Curran, Afoa and Pene have started the year on fire. But the Warriors were ill-disciplined, struggle to build pressure and their outside-backs have been poor on both sides of the ball.

Axed after Round 1, Kodi Nikorima returns at halfback for the injured Ash Taylor.

The Warriors have won four of their last five against the Tigers, taking out a pair of thrillers last season: 30-26 in Gosford and 18-16 in Brisbane. Eight of their last 11 clashes produced 44-plus points.

The Warriors have not won at Campbelltown since 2007, but their rumbling pack should lay a sufficient platform to put on enough points to overcome a Tigers side that seems disinterested in playing for each other, let alone their embattled coach.

Though they have myriad deficiencies to address, a loss here would be an unmitigated disaster for the Warriors.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win @ $1.82

SGM: WARRIORS -1.5 / OVER 39.5 POINTS / ADAM POMPEY ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $5.99

The latest instalment of the NRL’s oldest and most bitter rivalry entails an extra edge this week with South Sydney desperate for its first win of 2022, and Latrell Mitchell and Joey Manu sharing a footy field for the first time since their flashpoint incident last August.

The Rabbitohs took the Storm to golden point in Round 2 but were ordinary until the last 15 minutes of regulation time, when they staged a remarkable comeback from 14-0 down. Mitchell’s presence improved Souths but Cody Walker and Damien Cook are out of sorts, while their outside backs are seriously lacking punch.

Sydney Roosters responded to their shock defeat to Newcastle with an authoritative 26-12 victory over Manly. Halves Sam Walker and Luke Keary were brilliant in a 22-point first-half assault, while Siosiua Taukeiaho, Victor Radley and Sitili Tupouniua led a dominant engine-room effort.

The Rabbitohs have won five of their last seven against the Roosters. Mitchell and Cody Walker starred in a 26-16 victory in Round 3 last season, but their 54-12 romp in Round 24 – with Alex Johnston bagging a hat-trick – was overshadowed by Mitchell’s fateful hit on Manu.

Souths’ lack of cohesion and attacking potency in the opposition’s 20-metre zone is a real concern even at this early stage of the season. The Roosters’ offence clicked in a big way last week and are arguably the NRL’s standard bearer for defending on their own line.

Expect the Tricolours to reclaim inner-Sydney supremacy on Friday night.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-4 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: ROOSTERS/ROOSTERS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / RABBITOHS UNDER 16.5 / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $6.79

Saturday’s schedule kicks off with unbeaten Penrith and Newcastle locking horns in Bathurst.

The Panthers dismantled Manly 28-6 and held off St George Illawarra for a gritty 20-16 win without linchpin Nathan Cleary, who has been named in the extended reserves list. His late inclusion would be a boost following an injury to valuable winger Brian To’o – replaced by Taylan May – and concern over James Fisher-Harris.

The Knights have been the surprise packets of the opening fortnight, stunning the Roosters 20-6 before cruising to an emphatic 26-4 defeat of Wests Tigers despite the late withdrawal of Kalyn Ponga and David Klemmer.

Adam O’Brien’s side is outmuscling and out-enthusing their opponents, keeping their tryline intact until the last five minutes in both games so far.

Ponga and front-row leader Daniel Saifiti return for this big assignment, but the key will be unheralded halves pairing Jake Clifford and Adam Clune maintaining their outstanding start to the season. Dane Gagai has been a fabulous addition to the backline and Tyson Frizell has provided a timely reminder of his class.

Penrith has lost just once in its last 10 games against Newcastle. Fisher-Harris was man-of-the-match in the clubs’ only 2021 encounter, a clinical 24-6 Panthers win in Round 7. The Panthers are 4-3 in Bathurst.

Newcastle’s in-form pack faces the toughest test in the NRL, but with Penrith missing To’o and Cleary unlikely to return this is a genuine opportunity for the Knights to make another statement. The Panthers are giving away plenty of points at the line and will have to graft their way to victory as they did last week.

Tip: Back Knights to Cover the Line (+12 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: PANTHERS WIN / KNIGHTS +12 / UNDER 38.5 POINTS / DANE GAGAI ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $16.82

Melbourne Storm have started 2022 in trademark fashion – not setting the world on fire but doing enough to get the two points. After coming from behind to beat Wests Tigers, the perennial contenders survived a late fight-back from South Sydney to win 15-14 in golden point via a Ryan Papenhuyzen field goal.

Outstanding during the trials, Parramatta has arguably been below-par – making hard work of a 32-28 win over Gold Coast before getting pipped at the post by Cronulla.

The Eels were outgunned in the middle by the Sharks pack and finished on the wrong side of just about every attacking metric despite enjoying 54 percent possession and completing at a superior 87 percent.

Storm hooker Harry Grant has tested positive to COVID, joining Brandon Smith on the sidelines with rookie Tyran Wishart likely to start at dummy-half. Wiremu Greig replaces Jake Arthur on the Eels bench, but the absence of Ryan Matterson and Marata Niukore is limiting the blue-and-gold pack.

Parramatta achieved the rarest of doubles in 2021, beating Melbourne in Round 2 (16-12) at home and Round 24 (22-10) at Suncorp Stadium – the latter snapping the Storm’s record-equalling 19-match winning streak.

But the Eels don’t bring adequate 80-minute consistency into this showdown to have faith in another upset result. The Storm – on a seven-match winning streak at AAMI Park – will find a way to get the result on Saturday night, as they invariably do, with Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes proving the difference.

Tip: Back Storm to Win by 1-12 @ $2.70

SGM: STORM WIN / UNDER 38.5 / XAVIER COATES TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $21.06

Ricky’s Raiders are on the ropes after a disastrous comedown from their spirited Round 1 win over the Sharks. The Green Machine were awful in a 26-6 loss to Cowboys last Saturday, while veteran rake Josh Hodgson has now been ruled out for the season to compound the absence of halfback recruit Jamal Fogarty until Round 14.

Brad Schneider is back from COVID protocols in the No.7 jumper, while the backline looks far better on paper for the return of Nick Cotric and Jordan Rapana on the flanks.

Gold Coast is 1-1 after a pair of thrillers, edged 32-28 at Parramatta before squeaking home 20-18 against the Warriors in Robina.

AJ Brimson made an immediate impact at five-eighth and the Titans’ three-quarter line – chunky winger Greg Marzhew especially – comprehensively outplayed their opposites, but they should have arguably lapped the Warriors after scorching out to a 10-point lead.

The Titans halted a five-game losing streak against the Raiders with a stunning 44-6 victory at GIO Stadium in Round 16 last year; ironically, Fogarty scooped three Dally M points. It was the Raiders’ biggest home loss since 2013.

Both teams are fielding relatively inexperienced, unfamiliar spines, contributing to a lack of composure for extended periods in games. Both sides’ chief strength lies in hulking, dynamic middle forwards and game-breakers on the edges.

It’s already crunch time for the depleted Raiders, who it’s easy to imagine getting up on emotion and a dash of Jack Wighton brilliance. But the Titans are the value option as the underdog in what is sure to be an 80-minute (or more) rollercoaster.

Tip: Back Titans to Win @ $2.10

SGM: EITHER TEAM TO WIN BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / OVER 39.5 POINTS / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $19.61

The Round 3 derby theme continues with an all-Queensland showdown at Suncorp Stadium.

Brisbane is shooting for its first 3-0 start since 2009 after following up their stirring 11-4 upset of Souths with a hard-earned 16-10 defeat of unfancied Canterbury.

Two-try stud Herbie Farnworth took the major Dally M points against the Bulldogs, but Adam Reynolds’ immediate effect on the way the Broncos get around the park was the most important takeaway. Young forward leaders Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan were again superb.

North Queensland were the big turnaround team of Round 2, bouncing back from a 6-4 loss to the Bulldogs with a rousing 26-6 victory over Canberra. Jason Taumalolo made a barnstorming return to form, Tom Dearden and Chad Townsend gelled encouragingly in the halves, and the Cowboys’ clutch of outstanding young back-rowers again starred.

The Broncos are unchanged, while the Cowboys’ only change sees Reuben Cotter come onto the bench for Mitchell Dunn, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

Honours were shared between the battling archrivals last season. Valentine Holmes’ field goal got the Cowboys home 19-18 in Townsville in Round 9, while Kotoni Staggs notched a double as the Broncos ran away with a 37-18 win at Suncorp in Round 20.

The Cowboys have won just four of their last 27 games away from Townsville.

The middle-third arm-wrestle will be especially critical on Sunday afternoon and the Cowboys have been very impressive in the yardage department so far. But Reynolds’ influence gives the Broncos a significant advantage and the hosts have developed a hard edge in defence that should be enough to thwart ‘little brother’.

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: BRONCOS WIN / UNDER 41.5 / SELWYN COBBO ANYTIME TRY SCORER

After a pair of a convincing losses to title contenders, Manly would ideally like to revert to its 2021 pattern of beating up on the NRL’s lesser lights. But the under-pressure Sea Eagles may meet some uncustomary resistance in the shape of a Canterbury Bulldogs side that has leaked just 20 points in two rounds.

Manly was never in the hunt against Penrith (28-6) or Sydney Roosters (26-12), with megastar fullback Tom Trbojevic barely firing a shot and the Sea Eagles forwards getting rumbled by two of the benchmark packs in the NRL.

Canterbury grafted out a 6-4 win in Townsville in Round 1 and showed plenty of heart in a 16-10 loss to rejuvenated Brisbane last Sunday.

Five-eighth Matt Burton has been a tremendous addition, but yet again finishing scoring chances is the Bulldogs’ chief bugbear. They enjoyed 59 percent possession and ran for over 500 metres more than the Broncos, yet rarely looked capable of turning pressure into points.

Manly has won its last six against Canterbury by an average margin of 23.7 points. Last season a depleted Bulldogs side crashed 66-0 to the Sea Eagles in Round 16 and went down 36-18 in Round 24. Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab scored a combined 11 tries across the two games.

The Sea Eagles are the second-shortest favourite of Round 3 despite showing little to date this season, but they should relish the chance to take on a non-heavyweight. There is brittleness in areas of the Bulldogs’ edge defence that Daly Cherry-Evans, Trbojevic and co. are experts at exposing.

Tip: Back Jason Saab & Reuben Garrick to Score 2 or More Tries Combined @ $2.25

SGM: MANLY WIN / SEA EAGLES OVER 24.5 POINTS / BULLDOGS UNDER 12.5 POINTS / TOM TRBOJEVIC ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $6.94

2021

Five teams remain unbeaten atop the NRL ladder as we shift our attention to what is arguably one of the most exciting rounds of the entire season.

The blockbusters come quick and fast this week as the unbeaten Panthers host the Storm in Penrith on Thursday night, followed by another cracker 24 hours later when the Rabbitohs and Roosters meet in Sydney.

A pair of top eight battles also headline Saturday’s slate between the Raiders and Warriors from Canberra and the Eels and Sharks from Bankwest.

With plenty to look forward to, our best bets for a huge Round 3 can be found below!

The Thursday night blockbusters continue this week as we prepare for the long-awaited Grand Final rematch between the Panthers and Storm.

Penrith has surged to outright favouritism in our NRL Premiership market following back-to-back shutouts over the Cowboys and Bulldogs, while the Storm have drifted slightly following a shock loss to the Eels last week.

Only six points separated these two sides in last year’s big dance, with the main difference being the clutch boot of Cameron Smith in front of the posts.

While the Panthers have looked unstoppable though two rounds, it is worth keeping in mind both of those wins came over two wooden spoon favourites.

Melbourne, on the other hand, has squared off against the Rabbitohs and Eels so far, meaning they should be a little more battle-tested for this rematch.

On the injury front, there is a slight concern for Panthers co-captain Nathan Cleary as he goes through the HIA protocol, but outside of that, both teams are relatively fresh and healthy.

Home field advantage is one of the main factors for the Panthers opening as favourites, but it’s still hard to knock the Storm on the back of a loss.

Melbourne very rarely loses back-to-back games, evident in the fact they’ve finished last season a perfect 4-0 off the back of a previous defeat. 

Tip: Back the Storm to Win @ $1.95

Manly head coach Des Hasler will be hoping his side can avoid their first 0-3 start since 2015 on Friday when they meet a rejuvenated Dragons side in Wollongong.

St George, fresh from a grueling 25-18 win over the Cowboys last week in Townsville, find themselves as the slight favourites in betting with the Sea Eagles still struggling through injury.

Now joining Tom Trbojevic, Curtis Sironen, and a handful of others on the sideline is experienced back-rower Andrew Davey, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week in the loss to the Rabbitohs.

Manly’s reserves are already wearing thin, but if they can hold on just a little bit longer, reinforcements like Turbo and Sironen should help them turn things around in the next few weeks.

With their stars still a few games away from returning though, this is yet another tough assignment going up against a Dragons side that has typically held their number in recent times.

St George has won four of its last five over Manly, including a 34-4 drubbing when these two sides met at Jubilee in Round 9 last year.

After Ben Hunt and Corey Norman steered the ship perfectly last week against North Queensland, the fit and healthy Dragons look a strong bet to improve to 2-1.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Win @ $1.82

There should be no shortage of fireworks on Friday night when the Rabbits and Roosters meet in a potential Grand Final preview in Sydney.

South Sydney atoned for their opening loss to the Storm last week with a convincing 26-12 win over Manly, but Wayne Bennett’s side is about to face another tough test going up against a white-hot Roosters side.

The tri-colours have cruised to back-to-back victories over the Sea Eagles and Tigers so far, although it’s safe to say this game will also provide a serious evaluation of the Roosters’ finals credentials.

That point will only be drummed home even further in Roosters camp this week after the Bunnies pulled off a memorable 60-8 win when these two sides last met.

To add further intrigue, we’ll also see Latrell Mitchell take on his former club after the star fullback missed their most recent clash late last season.

On the injury front, the Rabbitohs are set to go without Adam Reynolds and Jaxson Paulo, while the Roosters are set to welcome back Victor Radley from a suspension.

As for the trends, the numbers paint a pretty compelling picture.

The Rabbitohs are 3-1 head-to-head as the away underdog against Sydney with the last two meetings between these sides both going over the total.

A win from either side wouldn’t surprise, with last year’s 52-point win looming in the background, the Roosters might be a touch under the odds here.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $2.00

It’s tough to top Thursday and Friday night, but there’s no question Saturday’s showdown from Canberra could prove to be equally as exciting.

The Raiders have started the season a perfect 2-0, but they did leave a lot to be desired last week against the Sharks.

Canberra spent most of the second half defending their territory, a potential recipe for disaster against a hungry Warriors side looking to bounce back from a close call to the Knights.

Unfortunately for Warriors fans, all of the preseason hype looks to be moot.

Star five-eighth Chanel Harris-Tavita is set to miss up to 12 weeks with a fracture in his foot – a big loss for coach Nathan Brown with Euan Aitken on the sidelines for an equal amount of time.

On the Canberra front, there has been some positive news for Hudson Young with the second-rower pulling up fine from a suspected knee injury last week, while captain Jarrod Croker looks a chance at playing his first game of the year.

All things considered, backing against the Raiders at their home fortress isn’t advised, but there is a case to be made for New Zealand at least keeping this game close.

Canberra, much like last year, has struggled to string together two consistent halves this season, which leaves the current double=digit line looking a little generous.

On the flip side, the Warriors have typically been a very strong bet on the back of a loss covering in eight of their last 11 games.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $2.00

After a handful of blockbusters to open the round, it’s only fitting that two of the competition’s cellar dwellers should square off from Brisbane on Saturday.

Still winless, both the Broncos and Dogs will fancy themselves to get their season back on track at Suncorp, but it’s safe to say punters are a little short on confidence.

Brisbane has already firmed into favouritism to win back-to-back spoons after suffering a 13th straight loss to an average-looking Titans team last week.

On an equally concerning note, the Dogs have managed to score only three tries in two games, making this one of the toughest contests to pick of the entire round.

While plenty is made of Brisbane’s awful losing streak, it’s worth noting that the Broncos’ last win came against this same Bulldogs side back in Round 9 last year.

At the same time, the Dogs have won only one game in their last 11 contests, and although Brisbane has struggled to string together a full 80-minutes, there has been plenty to like about the way the Broncos have played in both opening halves this season.

With an unbeaten record over the Bulldogs at Suncorp dating back to 2015, the Broncs have a very slight edge.

Tip: Back the Broncos 1-12 @ $2.80

The Eels will be looking to put their home-field advantage to good use again on Saturday night when they take on a feisty-looking Sharks team at Bankwest.

Parramatta shocked the country last week with a home win over the Storm, although much like their win over the Broncos a week earlier, it took another big second-half effort to get the job done.

The Sharks opened their account in Round 1 with a big win over the Dragons, and they were far from disgraced in last week’s slugfest against the Raiders in sloppy conditions.

Cronulla coach John Morris is still awaiting the return of Jesse Ramien, Royce Hunt, and Shaun Johnson over the coming month, but that isn’t to say the Sharks can’t at the very least keep this game respectable.

The Eels will now go without Waqa Blake after the centre pulled up with a calf issue at training, while Ryan Matterson is also undergoing the HIA protocol.

In the first two weeks alone we’ve already seen the Sharks show that same grit and determination that earned them a surprise finals berth last year.

With an equally impressive 7-3 record at the line on the back of a loss, the Sharks are worth a wager here.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Knights have done extremely well to open the season 2-0 considering the long list of injuries head coach Adam O’Brien has had to overcome.

Fortunately, Newcastle has a very winnable game up next against the hapless Tigers with star five-eighth Kurt Mann also set to return to the side.

You could argue Wests have received the short end of the stick with games against the Raiders, Roosters, and now the Knights.

So far the Tigers have looked like the ill-disciplined, sloppy team we came to know towards the back end of last year, which has also forced Michael Maguire to drop Joey Leilua from the team this week.

While the Knights should win this game easily, you’ll need to get creative to find some value in the market.

Fortunately, Newcastle’s last seven games have all gone over the total points number, not to mention the fact the last five contests between these two sides have also achieved a similar result.

Tip: Over 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90

The Titans will be looking for a clean sweep over their state rivals this week when they travel to North Queensland to take on the struggling Cowboys.

At times the Titans looked a little average in last week’s win over the Broncos, but they still managed to flex their muscle down the stretch thanks to a two-try performance from new recruit David Fifita.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, showed glimpses of promise in their home loss to the Dragons, but some costly mistakes eventually saw them undone.

Away games in the North Queensland heat are always tough, but this does shape as another winnable one for the Titans with star Cowboys winger Kyle Feldt ruled out due to suspension.

That said, the Titans do need to clean up some of their own errors on attack, especially with Ash Taylor set to miss the next few weeks with a hand injury.

Combined with the fact the Titans haven’t won in North Queensland since 2012, and there’s suddenly a case for the Cowboys to at least keep this one respectable.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $2.00

2020

The NRL presses ‘play’ again this week with all 16 clubs returning to action.

Thursday Night Football headlines Round 3 as the Broncos and the Eels meet at Suncorp, followed by a crucial battle in Sydney on Friday night between the winless Roosters and the Rabbitohs.

Saturday’s game between the Storm and the Raiders is a repeat of last year’s Qualifying Final, while there’s also more than just bragging rights on the line between the undefeated Knights and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

Just like Round 2, no fans will be in attendance, which again makes betting a little tricky following a lengthy two month break.

Luckily, we’ve done all the hard work for you, so be sure to read on below for our complete 2020 NRL Round 3 Preview.

The Broncos and the Eels both resume at 2-0 on Thursday night in what is shaping up to be the marquee matchup of Round 3.

Brisbane opened its season in surprise fashion with an away win against the Cowboys followed by a hard-fought 22-18 win at Suncorp against the Rabbitohs, which has perhaps left Bronco fans feeling optimistic despite losing in blowout fashion to this same Eels side during last year’s finals.

The last time the Broncos opened the season 2-0 was way back in 2016 – the same year they lost to North Queensland in the Semi’s.

Parramatta, meanwhile, found themselves undefeated heading into Round 3 this time last year, right before they lost in blowout fashion themselves to the eventual premiers.

Bronco fans might fancy their chances with the season turned upside down, and the team shouldn’t be short on motivation after failing to register a single point in last year’s 58-0 first round finals blowout.

As the market suggests though, picking between these two sides is a real coin flip.

You could argue the lack of a crowd plays into either sides’ hands, while Brisbane’s average record at home last year is also worth considering.

The trends tell us the last two games played at Suncorp between these two sides have gone under the total, so that’s probably the safest play.

Parra laid a bit of an egg in their 8-2 Round 1 win over the Bulldogs, so there’s a chance we see a repeat performance off a long break.

Brisbane are also missing Tevita Pangai Jr (suspension) and David Fifita (knee), so there’s every chance this one falls a little short of expectations – at least on the scoreboard.

Tip: Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.80

The Titans find themselves as long outsiders in Friday night’s Queensland Derby up in Townsville.

Last year’s wooden spooners suffered a difficult draw to start the season with an away trip to Canberra followed by a 46-6 drubbing at the hands of the Eels in Round 2, and things aren’t about to get any easier against a Cowboys team playing with a serious point to prove.

North Queensland were underwhelming in their opening home loss to the Broncos, and while they did even things out with a 24-16 away win against Canterbury a week later, we’re still yet to see this new-look lineup really click into gear.

Of course, it’s still early days yet, and the lengthy break can only be seen as a positive for a team that grew significantly stronger during the offseason with the addition of Valentine Holmes.

Speaking of stars, Michael Morgan remains sidelined following shoulder surgery, but other than the skipper’s absence, Paul Green is basically working with a full-strength squad.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the Titans as they play on without AJ Brimson, making life even more difficult with another tough road assignment.

Throw in the fact the Titans have lost nine straight to the Cowboys dating back to 2014, and it becomes very difficult to see this one staying close.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $1.90

These two sides were favoured heavily at the start of the season to take home the premiership, but the futures market has altered slightly following Sydney’s 0-2 start and South Sydney’s troubles off the field.

Despite a pair of crushing defeats to the Panthers and Sea Eagles, Friday night sees the Chooks favoured heavily in Ladbrokes’ market against a half-strength Bunnies lineup.

Cody Walker is set to serve the first of his two-game suspension for last fortnight’s off-field incident, while James Roberts also looks less than certain to suit up due to health issues.

There is added intrigue here with Latrell Mitchell facing his former side for the first time, but the Rabbitohs’ new man at fullback hardly looked himself in the first two weeks of the season as he adjusted to a new position and also struggled for some fitness.

The long break should’ve served Mitchell well, but it’s difficult to see him winning this game alone.

Sydney, meanwhile, welcome back captain Boyd Cordner and key defender Josh Morris, so really, we should see a similar result on Friday night to the 30-6 Roosters blowout we witness in last year’s qualifying final.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Warriors will be glad to get back to basics following months of uncertainty due to the Coronavirus.

The Kiwis, just like the Dragons, will be looking to earn their first win of the season on Saturday afternoon, but out of the eight games on offer this weekend, this looks to be the toughest one to call.

New Zealand holds the wood over the Dragons having won their last three meetings against St George, but we won’t know for sure what mind state the Warriors are in until we actually see them take the field.

In terms of the squad, the Warriors will go without key winger David Fusitu’a indefinitely with his entrance into Australia being denied, while Jazz Tevaga and Adam Keighran have also been made unavailable due to knee injuries.

Speaking of injuries, Paul McGregor and the Dragons are finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel with Cameron McInnes and the Sims brothers likely to return.

Their inclusion alone warrants the current money on offer for St George, so with a fitness edge and fewer mental distractions, you have to side with the Red V here.

Tip: Back the Dragons 1-12 @ $2.75

The ladder might suggest otherwise, but this game could turn out to be surprisingly entertaining.

Wests opened the season with a comfortable 24-14 win over the Dragons in Wollongong before the Knights overpowered them a week later at Leichardt.

Considering their long list of injuries, the Tigers should feel pretty good about themselves sitting at 1-1, but this is a game they would’ve had circled on the calendar a long time ago.

Cronulla put the final dagger into the Tigers’ season last year with a 25-8 victory at Leichhardt in Round 25.

The Sharks have changed a lot since then though, and at the current quote, Wests look a decent bet to get some revenge.

To their credit, the Sharks were probably a little hard done by in the opening two rounds.

John Morris’ side was competitive against the Bunnies in Round 1 and against the Storm in Round 2, but it became pretty clear that this club is now in the midst of a transition phase.

Both sides are welcoming back some big names from injury and the break should have done both clubs some good.

Perhaps the one thing working in Wests’ favour though is the return of Moses Mbye.

Adam Doueihi shifting to fullback could also pay dividends, so at the current quote, the Tigers look a little over the odds.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90

This game is a rematch of last year’s thrilling Qualifying Final, so it’s a real shame no crowd will be in attendance to provide some atmosphere.

Nevertheless, we should be treated to another classic on Saturday night as the Raiders look to repeat last September’s 12-10 upset at AAMI Park.

The Green Machine resume their season at 2-0 following a pair of comfortable wins over the Titans and Warriors, and although this is a much tougher test, there’s certainly plenty to like about the Raiders with nearly a full-strength side stepping out onto the park.

Just like they do every year, the Storm have also started the season 2-0 with wins over Manly and Cronulla.

Craig Bellamy has had some extra time to mull over his lineup and the relocation from Albury back to Melbourne can only be seen as a plus.

With two full-strength sides, the bookies will likely expect plenty of points here.

Funnily enough, the trends suggest the opposite as the last five games between these two have gone Under the Total.

With a 3-0 start on the line, don’t be surprised if these two teams tread cautiously int he early goings.

Tip: Under the Points Total

The Panthers and Knights were Top 8 fringe-dwellers for most of last season, but if the first two rounds taught us anything, it’s that these two clubs mean business in 2020.

Both Penrith and Newcastle resume the season at 2-0 ahead of what should be a Sunday afternoon thriller.

The Panthers look the team to beat on paper, although they will go on without Nathan Cleary, who serves the first of his two-match ban for breaching the social distancing policy.

Newcastle will be short a star player themselves with Kalyn Ponga suspended.

Mitchell Barnett and Jayden Brailey will also be absent indefinitely due to injury, which likely explains the odds on offer the Knights to improve to 3-0.

Penrith also has home-field advantage working in their favour here and they should feel confident knowing they’ve won their last two games over Newcastle.

Although most trends can probably thrown out the window following the two month break, the Panthers do hold a 6-1 record against the line at home over the last 12 months, so with Newcastle missing a large chunk of their top playmakers, Penrith to cover is probably the safest bet.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-2.5) @ $1.90

The Sea Eagles can edge their way back into the eight on Sunday with a big victory over the Bulldogs.

Canterbury put up a fight in the first two rounds against Parramatta and North Queensland, but who knows what to expect from the Dogs this week with a handful of the clubs’ top stars out indefinitely.

The off-field dramas surrounding Jayden Okunbor and Corey Harawira-Naera leaves Dean Pay short on talent, while the loss of Joe Stimson due to a shoulder operation only makes matters worse.

Manly, meanwhile, comes out of the break in tip-top condition with very little injury news to report.

The Sea Eagles have won three of their last five games against the Dogs, and while the neutral ground on the Central Coast might play a small part, it’s difficult to see a full-strength Manly side struggling on fresh legs.

Tip: Back Manly to Win 13+ @ $2.50

2019

Only four teams remain perfect as we head towards Round 3, and wouldn’t you know it, the Tigers and the Eels sit atop the ladder.

It’s a big game for Parramatta this week as they face the reigning premiers, while the Tigers look to keep their season rolling against the hapless Bulldogs.

Upsets and unpredictable margins have been commonplace so far this season, but we’re confident we’ve found some winnings plays you can bank on.

Be sure to check out our complete 2019 NRL Round 3 Preview below.

A 19-point win in the first QLD Derby has the Broncos up and about in preparation for Thursday’s visit by the Dragons.

After being criticized heavily for starting slow, Brisbane opened with five unanswered tries, two of which came within the opening 25-minutes. Corey Oates was the standout with a pair of his own, while Thomas Flegler chipped in with some brilliant runs on attack.

The Dragons weren’t quite so fortunate against Souths last week. St. George find themselves 0-2 to start the season for the first time since 2016, as well as heavy outsiders as they look to repeat last year’s finals success at Suncorp.

Despite their loss last week, the Dragons did a lot right. St. George won the possession and tackle count, they just couldn’t tidy up basic errors that eventually cost them on the scoreboard.

The jury might still be out on the Broncos, but fans can rest easy knowing they are 7-2 as the home favourite against the Dragons. Last year’s early exit in the finals will be at the forefront of Anthony Seibold’s mind, as well as the fact the Dragons completely controlled Brisbane’s attack for the better part of 80-minutes.

Given St. George’s epic collapse in the second half however, it’s tough to see the Dragons avoiding an 0-3 start. Paul McGregor’s side strung together a brilliant 40-minutes last week, only to allow the Rabbitohs three unanswered tries. That kind of form hardly stacks up against a revengeful Broncos side.

Tip: Back the Broncos 1-12 @ $2.88

Reality was a dish served cold to the Raiders last week. Canberra looked a strong chance at upsetting the Storm at home in what was supposed to be wet conditions, but the Raiders failed to show up to their own party losing by 12-points.

The Knights were equally disappointing following a Round 1 win over the Sharks. Many bought into what Newcastle were selling, but a two-point loss to the Panthers at home now leaves Newcastle with a few questions to answer.

These two sides met only once last year in a thrilling 30-28 Knights victory in Canberra. Two of the last five meetings between the two have gone to overtime, but with homefield advantage again this week, the Raiders enter as the short-price favourite.

Canberra are 5-2 straight-up as the home favourite over the last 12 months, and a less impressive 4-3 at the line. Unfortunately, the Knights are no better with a so-so 4-6 record as the away underdog against Canberra.

The safest bet here is obviously in the Points market. These two have put up over 50-points in four of their last five games, but don’t expect that kind of Total on Friday. Heavy rain looks set for Canberra again, and with both sides ranking inside the Top 5 in missed tackles, we could be in for a sloppy affair.

Tip: Back Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.88

The Eels’ 2-0 start has set up the perfect stage for this Friday night blockbuster.

Parramatta carved up the Bulldogs last Sunday in a commanding 36-16 victory, a game headlined by Clinton Gutherson’s scoring efforts, Mitchell Moses’ perfect boot and the brilliant attacking play of Blake Ferguson.

The Roosters also looked sharp in their 26-18 win over the Sea Eagles, erasing any doubt of a premiership hangover following Round 1’s loss to the Bunnies. It took Trent Robinson’s side only three minutes to crack the scoreboard, and really, it was all one-way traffic from there.

Recent history might suggest otherwise, but we could be in for a close encounter on Friday night. The Roosters won by 34-points when these sides met last year, and despite having won three of the last five meetings, the Eels’ explosive attack looks more than capable of an upset.

Not surprisingly, the reigning premiers enter as the favourite this week, a scenario they are 2-3 on the road against Parramatta. On their way to the wooden spoon last year, the Eels finished 4-3 in the home underdog role, an encouraging sign if you fancy Parramatta to keep things close.

The Eels can win this game if they keep things close in the early goings. Sydney know how to score from the opening kickoff, while Parra fell behind last week against Canterbury only to score three tries in the opening 10-minutes of the second half.

Sydney, well the Roosters need to knuckle down with the ball and prevent the errors. With all that in mind, keep it simple and take the Eels at the line in what’s shaping up to be a massive game in Parra’s young season.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.95

Manly find themselves 0-2 for the first time since 2017. Last week’s loss to the Roosters was a tough break for Des Hasler’s side, however the Sea Eagles can take pride in the fact they played out a strong second half.

The Warriors have much bigger concerns to address ahead of Round 3. New Zealand, a team renowned for their strong play on the road last season, looked underdone against the Tigers losing by 28-points in Campbelltown. New Zealand’s usually explosive attack cracked the scoreboard only once, as Wests dominated possession exhausting the Warriors’ defence.

The Sea Eagles now travel to Christchurch on Saturday in what is sure to be an emotional game for the Warriors and their fans. The last time Manly traveled to New Zealand they won in thrilling overtime fashion back in 2017, but of course, a lot has changed since then.

For New Zealand, the key to this game is maintaining momentum. The Warriors have struggled to cope with the ebbs and flows of a full 80-minutes, evident in last week’s collapse in the first half against the Tigers.

Manly too will look to capitalize on their recent form. The Sea Eagles are right on the verge of a win, which makes this week extremely tough to call.

Perhaps the only thing worth banking on is a return to form from the Warriors’ defence. New Zealand rank third in tackles, while the Sea Eagles rank 12^th in set completion. Back the Warriors to force some turnovers, and most importantly, a win.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90

This is by far the most fascinating market ahead of Round 3.

The Cowboys, who are fresh from an injury depleted loss to the Broncos last Friday night, head into Saturday’s game against the Sharks as the underdog at home.

It’s an unfamiliar role for North Queensland, and one they’ve struggled in for the better part of 12 months. The Cowboys are 1-4 as the home underdog and 0-1 in the same role against Cronulla, and without Jason Taumalolo, it’s tough to find confidence in Paul Green’s side.

The Sharks earned their first win of the season last week in a blowout win of their own over the Titans. Sione Katoa was electric scoring two first half tries, while the defence already leads the league in tackles.

So who’s winning this potentially tight match up?

These two split their two-game series one win apiece last year, but the Sharks have held the upper-hand over North Queensland winning three of the last five.

As the away favourite Cronulla are 4-1 over the last 12 months, but it is worth noting the Sharks haven’t won up north in close to two years.

Still, the Sharks are perhaps the cleanest side in the competition. They need to tidy up the errors, an area they rank second in, but if Cronulla can ride the momentum of Paul Gallen breaking Andrew Ettingshausen’s all-time appearance record, this should be another low-scoring, gritty win.

Tip: Back the Sharks 1-12 @ $2.90

The Panthers got a win on the board last week, although it wasn’t pretty. Penrith held on for dear life in the second half of a 16-14 win over the Knights, a game that wasn’t without controversy as Isaah Yeo left with a second-straight concussion.

Melbourne also earned their second-straight win of the season in a blowout 22-10 victory over the Raiders. Suliasi Vunivalu was the star this time, scoring a hat-trick of tries while Cam Smith chipped in with a strong defensive effort.

The Storm have had everything their own way this season, but they might have their hands full on the road this week. Penrith expects Josh Mansour to return from a shoulder injury, while Melbourne roll into Round 3 unchanged.

The last time these sides met the Panthers walked away with a convincing 22-16 win over the Storm in Melbourne. The win snapped a six-game losing streak to the Storm, a factor the bookies are clearly paying attention to as the Storm enter this weekend as the favourite.

Until otherwise, it’s tough to back against Melbourne. The Storm are 8-3 as the away favourite and 5-1 in the same scenario against the Panthers. Having also won 17 of their last 19 against Penrith, it’s worth keeping things simple this week.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win 1-12 @ $2.75

The Tigers look every bit a contender as they remain a perfect 2-0. Last week’s standout win over the Warriors has Wests as the heavy favourites entering Round 3, while the Dogs lick their wounds following a blowout loss to the Eels.

These two split their two-game series one win apiece last year. Both games were relatively low-scoring and uneventful, however the Tigers’ explosive attack over the last fortnight has certainly caught the eye.

Not only did the Tigers dominate possession against New Zealand, they also executed well with the boot. That kind of form should transition nicely into this uneven match up, especially if Michael Maguire’s side can continue to dictate the pace.

Since Wests find themselves at a short-price, it’s worth also keeping in mind the Tigers are a less than impressive 3-5 as the line favourite over the last 12 months. Therefore, play it safe and take the Unders.

Tip: Back Under 40.5 Total Points @ $1.88

The Rabbitohs have left no stone unturned so far this season leading the league in tries, points, kick return metres and try assists heading into Round 3.

That kind of dominance is the very reason Souths were able to pick apart the Dragons last week in a convincing 34-18 win. The Titans, on the other hand, aren’t quite as sharp at the minute losing by a whopping 14-points at Shark Park last week.

It mightn’t look the most enticing match up on paper, but these two sides have put together some memorable performances in recent memory. The Bunnies have won the last two match ups, but last seasons 18-16 thriller in Round 14 was one of the highlights of Souths season.

Gold Coast won’t be a popular pick at these odds, especially after scoring just one try in their opening two losses. Garth Brennan has remained stubborn naming an unchanged side this week, while Wayne Bennett has also chosen to stick with what’s working as the team awaits news on Greg Inglis’ shoulder.

It’s tough to see the Titans mustering any attack on the road, especially with Sam Burgess playing pristine football. The Titans haven’t been disgraced on the stat sheet this year, but until they can get back to basics and play as a team, stick with the Titans to cover the line. They are 4-3 as the away underdog against the Rabbitohs.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+12.5 Points)

2018

It has been a stunning start to the 2018 NRL season and the first two rounds have been packed full of upsets.

Round 3 gets underway with a NRL Grand Final rematch between the Melbourne Storm and the North Cowboys and that is clearly the highlight of the round, but there are a host of big games spread right across the weekend.

We have analysed all eight games set to take place this weekend and our 2018 NRL Round 3 tips can be found below!

https://vimeo.com/260890932

The Grand Final rematch between the Melbourne Storm and the North Queensland Cowboys is easily the highlight of another massive weekend in the NRL.

The Storm suffered a shock loss at the hands of the Wests Tigers, but they have not lost back-to-back games since 2015 and they will start this clash as favourites.

Melbourne were far too good for the Cowboys in the 2017 NRL Grand Final and they have won 11 of their 14 games as home favourites, while they are only a middling 7-7 against the line in this situation.

The Cowboys were unlucky not to beat the Brisbane Broncos last weekend – Scott Bolton was denied the match-winning try by the goalpoast – and the question is how they will back-up after two tough games to start the season.

North Queensland were excellent on the road last season and they won five of their 11 games as away underdogs, while they were 8-3 against the line in that scenario.

There really isn’t a great deal between these two teams this should be another tight affair.

Back North Queensland Cowboys To Cover The Line (+2.5 Points)

https://vimeo.com/260892729

The Penrith Panthers have come from behind in both their games this season and they will go into this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as favourites.

Penrith have been slow out of the blocks against both the Parramatta Eels and the South Sydney Rabbitohs, but they have been able to finish over the top of their rivals.

The Panthers have won their past three games against the Bulldogs and their record against their rivals when favourites is nothing short of sensational – they have won their past six games against the Bulldogs as favourites and they are 5-1 against the line.

It has been a tough start for the Bulldogs and they were very poor against the Sydney Roosters last weekend.

The Bulldogs have been a tough side to trust from a betting perspective over the past 12 months and their recent record against the Panthers is poor.

Penrith should be able to take their record to 3-0 and they can cover the line in the process.

Back Penrith Panthers To Cover The Line (-4.5 Points)

https://vimeo.com/260893526

The Wests Tigers have made a stunning start to the 2018 NRL season, but it is still the Brisbane Broncos that will start this clash as favourites.

Brisbane overcame a week of off-field controversy and a shocking performance in their season opener to record a narrow win over the North Queensland Cowboys.

The Broncos won five of their seven games as away favourites last season and they were a profitable 4-3 against the line, while they have lost only two games at Campbelltown Stadium in their history.

No team has made a better start to the season than the Tigers.

The Tigers were expected to suffer a pair of heavy defeats in their opening two games of the season, but instead they take a 2-0 record into this clash following their brave wins over both the Sydney Roosters and the Melbourne Storm.

Whether the Tigers can maintain that level is a genuine question and their record at home last season was poor – they won only three of their 11 games as home underdogs and their record against the line wasn’t much better.

I think that the market has overreacted to the strong start from the Tigers and I am more than happy to take them on in this clash.

Back Brisbane Broncos To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)

https://vimeo.com/260894126

The Canberra Raiders and the New Zealand Warriors are two of the most unpredictable sides in the NRL and this is a tough game to analyse from a betting perspective.

Canberra have lost both their games so far this season 30-28 and their defence – especially at the tail-end of games – has been very poor.

The Raiders have won only five of their past ten games as home favourites and they are a poor 3-7 against the line in this scenario.

New Zealand have made a very promising start to the NRL season and they were surprisingly professional against the Gold Coast Titans last weekend.

In saying that, they are still a tough side to trust from a betting perspective.

They have won only two of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line isn’t much better.

It is impossible to have any faith in either of these two sides and this is a game that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

https://vimeo.com/260894528

The Manly Sea Eagles were nothing short of dominant against the Parramatta Eels last weekend and they will start this clash as favourites.

Daly Cherry-Evans responded to the question of whether he can fire without Blake Green in the most emphatic of fashion and he will once again be key for Manly in this clash.

The Sea Eagles have won nine of their past 13 games as favourites, but they are a poor 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs ran out of steam late against the Penrith Panthers last weekend, but there were still some positives to take from the performance and Greg Inglis will likely be clear to played after he was forced from the field with a concussion.

South Sydney have won only three of their past 13 games as underdogs, but they are 8-5 against the line over the past 12 months when being given a start.

This should be another close encounter and the Rabbitohs can cover the line with the start of 3.5 points.

Back South Sydney Rabbitohs To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)

https://vimeo.com/260894832

This is a huge game for both the Parramatta Eels and the Cronulla Sharks.

The Eels were nothing short of pathetic against the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Parramatta have won six of their past nine games as home favourites last season for a small loss and they were 3-1-5 against the line in that scenario.

The Cronulla Sharks have not been disgraced in either of their games this season, but sloppy errors from the likes of Valentine Holmes and Matt Moylan has cost them dearly.

Winning away from home was a huge strength for the Sharks last season and they have won four of their past six games as away underdogs for a big positive.

It is impossible to back the Eels off the back of their last start effort and it is the Sharks that represent serious value in this clash.

Back Cronulla Sharks To Win @ $2

https://vimeo.com/260895232

The St George Illawarra Dragons have been one of the most impressive teams in the opening fortnight of the NRL season and they will start this clash as favourites.

St George Illawarra came from behind to beat the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and their new halves combination of Ben Hunt and Gareth Widdop has clicked nicely.

Winning away from home was something of an issue for the Dragons last season and they won only one of their past four games as away favourites last season for a clear loss.

The Gold Coast Titans were excellent in the opening round of the season against the Canberra Raiders, but they were never able to get into their clash with the New Zealand Warriors last week.

Gold Coast have taken this home game to Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba and they are a side that generally do produce their best football in Queensland.

The Titans have won three of their past five games as home underdogs and they have won two of their past three games against the Dragons.

This will not be an easy game for the Dragons and the Titans do appeal at the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Back Gold Coast Titans To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)

https://vimeo.com/260895943

This is a huge game for the Newcastle Knights as the likes of Mitchell Pearce, Aidan Guerra and Shaun Kenny-Dowall return to Sydney for a clash with their old club.

The Sydney Roosters recorded their first win of the season with a comfortable victory over the Knights and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Sydney won ten of their 13 games as home favourites last season for a clear profit, but they were a poor 4-9 against the line in this scenario.

The Knights have showed plenty of fight to start their season with a pair of wins over the Manly Sea Eagles and the Canberra Raiders and they are a side that is playing with plenty of confidence.

Newcastle have still only won two of their past 11 games as away underdogs, but they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario and they have obviously improved this season.

Pearce and the Knights will have plenty to prove in this clash and they are capable of giving the Roosters a scare.

Back Newcastle Knights To Beat The Line (+8.5 Points)

2017 NRL Round 3 starts with a Thursday Night Blockbuster between the Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Brisbane Broncos before Jarryd Hayne and the Gold Coast Titans square-off against the Parramatta Eels in Adelaide.

The North Queensland Cowboys have the chance to extend their winning streak over the Manly Sea Eagles when they meet at 1300Smiles Stadium on Saturday night and the Cronulla Sharks and St George Illawarra Dragons will clash in the Battle Of The Shire on Sunday night.

As always there are a number of interesting games in the NRL this weekend and you can find our recommended betting plays for every single clash below.

This is an absolute blockbuster between two of the best teams in the NRL.

The Melbourne Storm have made a very strong start to the NRL season and they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Broncos as clear favourites.

Melbourne have won nine of their past 12 games as home favourites for a narrow profit, but they are 5-7 against the line in this scenario and have not beaten the Broncos at home since 2014.

The Broncos are on a six-day back-up following their golden point epic with the North Queensland Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium last Friday night.

It is fair to say that the Broncos lost no admirers with their performance and their young forward pack has impressed in the opening two rounds of the season.

The Broncos have only won one of their past four games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 2-1-1 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that looms as another nail-biter and I really don’t think there will be a great deal in it, so the Broncos look like an excellent bet to cover the line with a start of 4.5 points.

Back The Broncos To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points)

This is a crucial clash between two teams that have made a fairly poor start to the NRL season.

The New Zealand Warriors were no match for the Melbourne Storm last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.

New Zealand showed moments of brilliance against the Storm, but producing a complete 80 minute performance seems beyond them at this stage of the season.

This is technically a home game for the Bulldogs, but they have elected to take this game to Dundein and it is the Warriors that will have the majority of the support.

Canterbury went down to the Sydney Roosters last weekend in a thriller, but their were still some positives to take from the performance.

The kicking game of the Bulldogs continues to let them down and the fact that William Hopoate is also out of action is an issue.

Canterbury have won just one of their past 10 games as underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is poor.

These are two teams that are almost impossible to trust from a betting perspective, but the Over in the Total Points betting market does stand out.

The Over has saluted in 14 of the past 25 games played by the Warriors and backing the over in Bulldogs games has also been a profitable betting play.

Back Over 41.5 Points

This match lost plenty of its spark when Jarryd Hayne was injured last weekend and he will not be in the Gold Coast Titans side this weekend.

It has been a very difficult start to the season for the Titans and they will go into this clash as clear underdogs.

They were their own worst enemies against the Newcastle Knights and there is clearly something not right with this side, but it actually would not surprise if they improved without Hayne in the side.

The Titans have won four of their past 14 games as underdogs for a narrow loss, but they are 9-5 against the line in this scenario.

Parramatta sit on top of the table after two impressive performances against Manly and St George Illawarra and they will go into this clash with plenty of confidence.

The Eels have won their past six games as favourites for a clear profit and they are an impressive 5-1 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

The Newcastle Knights recorded their first win in almost 12 months last weekend, but it is still the South Sydney Rabbitohs that will go into this clash as favourites.

South Sydney were a different side with Adam Reynolds running the show last weekend against Manly and there was plenty to like about the way they bounced back from a very slow start.

The Rabbitohs have been tough to trust from a betting standpoint over the past 12 months and they have won only two of their past four games as away favourites, while they are 1-1-2 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle were only narrowly beaten by the New Zealand Warriors in the opening round of the season and they scored a well-deserved victory over the Gold Coast Titans last weekend.

Whether they can reproduce that sort of every week is the big question for this young side and it has been a long time since they claimed back-to-back wins.

The Knights have won just two of their past 13 games as home underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is also poor.

These are two sides that are very tough to trust from a betting standpoint and I am happy to stay out of this contest.

No Bet

This is set to be one of the matches of the round and the market has been unable to separate these two teams.

The Penrith Panthers were very poor in the opening round of the season against the St George Illawarra Dragons, but they bounced back to their best against the Tigers last weekend in emphatic fashion.

This is obviously a tougher challenge for the Panthers, but they fact this game is being played at Pepper Stadium does give them an advantage – they have won nine of their past 12 games at the venue.

The Sydney Roosters were touted by many experts to be the big improvers in 2017 and based on the opening two rounds of the season that definitely looks to be the case.

Sydney did beat the Titans away from home in the opening round of the season, but they have still only won two of their past 11 games away from home for a clear loss.

This is another game where the value looks to be in the Total Points betting market.

The Over has saluted in 15 of the past 23 games played by the Roosters and backing the Over in Panthers games has also been a winning betting play.

Back Over 37.5 Points

The North Queensland Cowboys have started the season with two golden-point thrillers and have given both their fans and coach Paul Green plenty of nervous moments over the past fortnight.

The Cowboys will go into this clash without Matt Scott, Antonio Winterstein, Lachlan Coote and Jason Taumalolo.

Winterstien and Coote can be replaced – the exciting Kalyn Ponga has been named at full-back – but the Cowboys forward pack does lack depth and they will sorely miss both Scott and Taumalolo.

They will still go into this clash as dominant favourites and it is easy to see why.

They have won their past 11 games as home favourites for a big profit and they are 7-1-3 against the line in this scenario.

Manly have been extremely poor in the opening two rounds of the season and it is fair to say that they will be in the battle for the wooden spoon, if they don’t improve.

The Sea Eagles lack quality right across the park and the way that they capitulated against the Rabbitohs last weekend is the sign of a side that is struggling mentally.

Manly have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they have been 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

The line is big, but a firing Cowboys outfit really should have no problem putting this Manly side to the sword.

Back North Queensland To Beat The Line (-10.5 Points)

The Canberra Raiders are yet to win a game during the 2017 NRL season, but they will still go into this clash with the Wests Tigers as clear favourites.

Canberra were unlucky not to come away with the win when they took on North Queensland in round 1, but they were extremely poor against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend.

A lack of discipline was a massive problem for the Raiders last weekend and they will really need to improve on that to be any chance this weekend.

The Raiders have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites, but they are only 5-6 against the line in this scenario.

Wests Tigers looked as though they had turned a corner with their excellent performance against South Sydney in round one, but they were absolutely played off the park by the Penrith Panthers last weekend.

Consistency continues to be an issue for the Tigers, but they do have a good record as away underdogs – they have won four of their past nine games in this scenario and they are 6-3 against the line.

There really isn’t as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Tigers are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 7.5 points.

Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

There is no love lost between the Cronulla Sharks and the St George Illawarra Dragons and this is always one of the highlights of the NRL season.

The Sharks were simply outstanding against the Canberra Raiders last weekend and they should be even better with Valentine Holmes back in the side this weekend.

Cronulla have won eight of their past nine games as home favourites for a big profit, but they are only 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Dragons started their season with an impressive win over the Penrith Panthers, but they were poor against the Parramatta Eels last weekend.

St George Illawarra have struggled badly away from home in the past couple of seasons and they have won just one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 2-6 against the line in this scenario.

The Sharks have won nine of their past 13 home games by a margin of between 1-12 and the $2.85 that is available for them to win by that margin again this weekend is genuine value.

Back The Sharks To Win By 1-12 @ $2.85

2016

The North Queensland Cowboys started round 3 with an intriguing clash with the Sydney Rooster on Thursday before the Canterbury Bulldogs and Parramatta Eels do battle in front of what will likely be a big crowd at ANZ Stadium.

The highlight of the weekend will be on Sunday afternoon when St George Illawarra Dragons and South Sydney Rabbitohs celebrate the 50th anniversary of the thrilling 1965 NSWRFL Grand Final.

Another Grand Final rematch concludes the round when the Manly Sea Eagles take on the Cronulla Sharks in the battle of the beaches.

The North Queensland Cowboys produced an absolute stinker of a performance against the Parramatta Eels last weekend and did not deserve to finish with a win, while the Sydney Roosters let slip a golden opportunity against the Canberra Raiders.

The Roosters produced a much improved effort in round 2, but their halves were unable to take control of the game when it counted and they really should have been able to secure the two points.

The Cowboys will be looking to put their horrible round performance behind and punters clearly have as they are start to take this game as dominant $1.23 favourites.

North Queensland are clearly the team to beat and they are 10-2 as home favourites in the past 12 months, but they are a poor 4-8 against the line in this situation.

In contrast, the Sydney Roosters have beaten the line in all three of their games as underdogs in the past 12 months and the current line of 12 points seem far too large – the Roosters remain a much better team than their early season form suggests.

Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (+12 points)

The Parramatta Eels and Canterbury Bulldogs head into their Friday Night Blockbuster on the back of hard-fought wins.

The Bulldogs started extremely slowly against the Penrith Panthers last Thursday Night, but some Moses Mybe magic in the final seconds got them across the line and proved their record to 2-0.

Parramatta were clearly keyed up for their round two clash with the North Queensland Cowboys and although it was clear that new captain and star recruit Kieran Foran was not at peak fitness they were still able to get the job done.

The Eels will be without Nathan Peats for this clash after he suffered a fractured arm last week and he is definitely a big loss, but they showed a toughness in their win last weekend that has been missing from the club for several years.

Canterbury are deserving favourites and they generally get the job done in this situation, but their record against the line as favourites is a poor 6-10 and they appear to have settled at their right price in head to head betting.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Newcastle Knights are already being talked about as certainties for the wooden spoon after the started the season with two very poor performances against the Gold Coast Titans and the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

In contrast, the Canberra Raiders have had their best start to the season for a number of years and they have played an exciting brand of rugby league in the process.

The Raiders are set to start this game as clear favourites and this is a scenario where they have struggled in recent years – they are 5-8 against the line as favourites and have won only 6 of their past 13 games as the punters elect.

However, the Newcastle Knights have a very poor record as underdogs and they are 5-9 against the line in this situation, while they have won just two of their past 13 games as underdogs.

After watching the Knights in action so far this season it is clear that it is going to be a very long year and the Raiders look like one of the best bets of the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders To Beat The Line (-4.5 points)

The Penrith Panthers looked like the winners for 70 minutes of their round two clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs, but they tired badly in the final stages and gave away the two points with the final play of the game.

The Brisbane Broncos have not played particularly well in either of their games this season, but in saying that they have never really looked like losing and they have several gears of improvement left in them.

The Broncos will start this game as favourites and they are 11-7 against the line in this scenario, but the Panthers are 4-2 with a points start in front of their home fans.

The point start of -5.5 points seems just about right, but it is still hard to see the Broncos getting beaten and their is a small edge at their current quote of $1.50.

Recommended Bet: Back The Brisbane Broncos To Win @ $1.50

The form of the Wests Tigers has been one of the biggest stories of the start of the NRL season – they are 2-0 and they have played some extremely attractive rugby league in doing so.

The Gold Coast Titans gave their suffering fans some hope with their impressive opening round effort against the Newcastle Knights and they were in the contest for a long stretch against the Melbourne Storm before they were blown out late.

The Tigers have been favourites on just seven occasions in the past 12 months and they have a shocking record – they are 2-5 in head to head betting and they have the exact same record against the line – so it is tough to trust them from a betting perspective and it would not surprise if some of their younger players like Mitchell Moses threw in a stinker following their strong start to the season.

The Titans are 4-3 against the line as home underdogs, but the spread of two and a half points seems just about right here and there is no real edge backing either team.

The market that does appeal is the Over 42.5 points. The over has saluted in 15 of the last 23 games played by both sides and I expect defense to not be the main priority for either side this weekend.

Reccomended Bet: Back The Over (42.5 points) in Over/Under Betting Markets

The New Zealand Warriors are 0-2 and are another loss would likely bring coach Andrew McFadden extremely close to the sack.

This is a big problem for the Warriors as they are not going to have an easy time of things against the Melbourne Storm.

The Storm will be without Billy Slater, but Cameron Munster is a more than able replacement at fullback and they still have plenty of talent spread right across their roster.

The absence of Slater has been overreacted to by bookmakers and there is no way that the Warriors should be favourites for this game.

The Warriors are a losing betting proposition as favourites over the past 12 months, while the Storm are 4-3 against the line as underdogs away from home.

I am happy to take on the Warriors all season long until they show some signs of life this season and the $2 available for the Storm to improve their record to 3-0 is the best bet of the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Storm To Win @ $2

There is no love lost between these two sides and this is always an interesting clash, but the last start form of both sides could not be any different.

The St George Illawarra Dragons were locked at 2-2 after 30 minutes against the Cronulla Sharks last Sunday, but somehow they managed to lose 30-2.

Their performance was nothing short of putrid, but it has at least motivated coach Paul McGregor to make some changes and Josh Dugan will return to fullback, while Kurt Mann has been put out of his misery and dropped.

There was plenty of talk about off-field turmoil at the Rabbitohs before the start of the season, but if that was the case it has not affected their on-field performances as the Rabbitohs have been ruthless in their demolitions of both the Knights and the Roosters.

The Rabbitohs are deserving favourites, but there is cause for concern as they have been horrid against the line in the past 12 months – failing to cover in six of their past 18 games as favourites and they are 1-1-6 against the line as away favourites.

The Dragons are close to even as a betting proposition against the line as home underdogs, but after their last performance it is very tough to get excited.

South Sydney will come back to the field at some point and there really isn’t any value in the current market unless you believe they can continue to win their games in dominant fashion.

Reccomended Bet: No Bet

It has not been an easy start to the First Grade coaching career of Trent Barrett and he is still chasing his first win as coach of the Manly Sea-Eagles following their disappointing losses to both the Canterbury Bulldogs and the Wests Tigers.

The Sharks played well without winning against the North Queensland Cowboys in week 1 and they actually played worse against the St George Illawarra Dragons, but were still able to record a big win over their local rivals.

Despite, their impressive last start win the Sharks are still set to start this game as underdogs and they really stand out from a betting perspective.

The Sharks have won 10 of their past 14 games as underdogs – an amazing stat – and they are 11-3 against the line in this scenario.

In contrast, Manly are 4-9 against the line as favourites in the past 12 months and they have won just three of their past nine games as favourites at Brookvale Oval.

Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Win @ $1.92