The 2023 Festival of Racing will get underway this Saturday at Ladbrokes Park Hillside highlighted by the running of the first Group 1 of the calendar year, the $750,000 Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes. The last time the race was run at Sandown was in 1996.
The training partnership of Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr have a strong hand in this year’s feature with I’m Thunderstruck and Jacquinot battling for favouritism. If successful, it will be Price’s second C.F. Orr Stakes victory after Shinzig won in 2008. Price came agonisingly close to winning in 2009,2010 and 2011 when amazingly training the runner-up.
Last year eight of the 12 entrants had previously won a Group 1 title. This year has followed a similar path with 70% of the field having won at least one individual blue ribband race.
We’ve provided a detailed analysis of every runner to help you find the winner. (Prices listed were current at time of writing)
1. I’m Thunderstruck (9)
Price: $3.80
The multiple Group 1 winning gelding kicks off his 2023 Autumn campaign in Saturday’s feature just as he did last year. On that occasion he worked home well for fifth. Since then, the five-year-old son of Shocking has come on in leaps and bounds. He stormed home clocking 23.33 seconds for the final 400 metres to snatch victory from Alligator Blood in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes as well as coming very close to beating Anamoe in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Cox Plate.
He boasts a great first-up record (4:2-1-0) so expect a bold showing fresh. When resuming last preparation, he came with a powerful finish to come within half a length of defeating Snap Dancer in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes.
Price and Kent Jnr have I’m Thunderstruck in great order leading into this first-up assignment. He’s won a jump out and a trial with the most recent seeing him cruise past Alligator Blood. He looked good working on the Sandown course proper on Tuesday morning. He’s the class runner of the field and will give this an almighty shake however, it must be noted that his grand final is The All-Star Mile.
2. Mr Brightside (10)
Price: $10.00
The Ben and JD Hayes-trained five-year-old ticked off “Group 1 winner” when he ran down I’m Thunderstruck to win the 2022 Doncaster Handicap. The son of Bullbars went to a new level in his next preparation during the Spring Carnival.
He impressively won the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes first-up which bodes well he enters this race over the same distance fresh. He backed that win up with a dominating performance to put a small but handy field away in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes.
Regular rider Craig Williams gave him a solid hit out in a recent trial win where he worked to the line strongly. He looks like one of the major players.
3. Tuvalu (1)
Price: $6.00
2022 was quite the year for the Lindsey Smith-trained five-year-old. He started the year off on January 20 with a win in a Benchmark 84 at Warrnambool and progressed right through to becoming the Group 1 winner of the Toorak Handicap.
We last saw the gelding finding the line strongly to get within half a length of Alligator Blood in the Group 1 Champions Mile under Weight For Age conditions. He finished second and was ahead of Mr Brightside.
The son of Kermadec never runs a bad race. His record of eight wins and six placings from 14 starts is testament to that. He flies fresh and looks set for another bold showing first-up. He has a good level of fitness for this, having had a jump out and a 1200 metres trial. He won both in good style. Smith has applied the blinkers for the first time which he believes will take Tuvalu to the next level. Heaven help his rivals if that’s the case!
4. Callsign Mav (8)
Price: $27.00
If you have doubts about the toughness of the Danny O’Brien-trained six-year-old, you just have to watch a replay of his 2022 Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes win. He was under pressure on the turn of the 1400 metres contest but dug deep to get the better of Tuvalu and I Am Superman and claim his first Group 1 in Australia.
That was the fourth Group 1 for the New Zealand-bred son of Atlante. He had won three races at the top level back home under trainer John Bary who remains in the ownership. Callsign Mav warmed up for this first-up run with a solid trial where he finished second to Mr Brightside.
The gelding has raced well fresh in the past however, I feel that he may find some of his rivals too sharp over 1400m first-up. He also does his best racing on tracks with the string out and Saturday’s track looks like it will be in the good range.
5. Western Empire (5)
Price: $71.00
The stunning form that saw the Peter Investments-owned gelding become one of the major talents in Western Australian racing in 2021 has not transferred to his time in Melbourne with trainer Danny O’Brien and now John Leek Jnr. The five-year-old gelding left Perth having won the Group 1 Railway Stakes, Group 2 WATC Derby, Group 3 Asian Beau and placing a close second in the Group 1 Kingston Town.
This preparation has been highly disappointing. He played no part in Group 3 Standish first-up before blowing the start and being well beaten in the Group 2 Australia Stakes. Admittedly both races were over unsuitable distances but it’s hard to see him improving dramatically to play a role against these quality gallopers.
6. Aegon (7)
Price: $26.00
Trainer Andrew Forsman believes his galloper Aegon is up to Weight For Age racing. The New Zealand horseman will put that theory to the test when his galloper lines up in Saturday’s feature. The five-year-old was last seen finishing second in the Group 1 Captain Cook at Trentham over 1600 metres in December.
The son of Sacred Falls is no stranger to Australian racing with the Kiwi gelding having seven of his 16 starts here. Last preparation he showed what he was capable of with a tough win in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes before running on strongly to finish just 1.35 lengths behind Alligator Blood in the Group 1 Champions Mile. Mr Brightside and Tuvalu were just in front of him.
He won a trial prior to coming to Australia in preparation for this first-up test. While he traditionally has been best second-up, he did win the Moonga Stakes when fresh over this distance so he can run a race. The concern is that his best form has been on tracks with give in them.
7.Gentleman Roy (3)
Price: $7.00
The Ben and JD Hayes-trained bold front runner is one of the few horses in this star-studded field that does not possess a Group 1 title. The young training duo are looking to change that on Saturday.
Gentleman Roy may not have the credentials of his more fancied opposition, but we were given a preview in October that he is up to it. In typical fashion, he led over the 1600 metres trip in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and despite being run down with 100 metres to go, he boxed on well to finish a length behind Tuvalu.
The lightly raced six-year-old gelding returned to racing in fine style two weeks ago with a strong barrier to box win in the Listed Barton Stakes over this course and distance. He loves racing at Sandown and over 1400 metres with a fitness edge, he will give a massive sight to his backers.
8. Nugget (6)
Price: $11.00
Australian Bloodstock, who own the former import, have a big opinion of the six-year-old gelding and have aspirations of him winning the All-Star Mile. However, before that can take place, he will face a litmus test in the C.F. Orr Stakes.
Since arriving in Australia last year, Nugget has hardly put a hoof wrong. He was run down late first-up by Detonator Jack at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day but then went on to win his next three starts as a short-priced favourite at Kembla Grange, Randwick and Sandown. His last start win in the Listed Lord Stakes signaled that he can rise to higher levels.
A recent Cranbourne jump out where he worked to the line under a hold demonstrated that he is ready to take the next step this preparation. However, he might find them a bit too sharp first-up. No doubt he will be running on and turning on the flashing light for future success later this Autumn.
9. Turaath (2)
Price: $17.00
The Maddie Raymond-trained mare was only given a short break after a three start Spring preparation that saw her win the Listed Black Pearl Stakes at Geelong. She returned to the track without a trial or jump out two weeks ago in the Group 2 Australia Stakes.
While the six-year-old was comfortably beaten in second by Jigsaw, she did show signs that she’s ready to fire this preparation. Stepping up to 1400 metres is ideal for the daughter of Oasis Dream who has won five of nine starts over the trip including the Group 2 Let’s Elope in 2021.
Turaath is racing well but this is a step up in class to what she is used to.
10. Jacquinot (4)
Price: $3.80
The 2022 Group 1 Golden Rose winner looks to have come back in outstanding style this preparation. The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained three-year-old was tenacious when picking up strongly in the final 200 metres to win the Group 3 Manfred Stakes over 1300 metres on this track first-up.
The son of Rubick takes on the older horses here but he has proven that he is up for the challenge. Last preparation he charged to the line to finish just under two lengths behind Giga Kick in The Everest. Other three-year-olds to have won the C.F. Orr Stakes include Redoute’s Choice, All Too Hard and Alabama Express who won just three years ago.
The stable has this guy in supreme condition ahead of this second-up assignment with Price indicating that he has a fitness edge over stablemate I’m Thunderstruck. He can tear off a killer final furlong so if he gets to the outside with clear air, he’ll be hard to hold out.
The Judgement
With so much proven Group 1 talent in this field, the 2023 C.F. Orr Stakes is guaranteed to be a tremendous spectacle and fitting of the top flight feature of the year. Where each horse settles will play a major role in the outcome.
I’m putting Tuvalu on top. From barrier 1 he maps to get the run of the race. Jockey Jarrod Fry will track Gentleman Roy in the run before launching in the straight. The addition of blinkers for the first-time signals intent first-up. Sandown can be a tricky track, so it gives me confidence that he is undefeated here.
Jacquinot is the new kid on the block. I liked the way he returned when winning the Manfred Stakes here first-up after not getting the best of runs. He’ll have come on from that outing and looks to enjoy a super run from barrier 4.
Gentleman Roy has drawn perfectly in barrier 3. Damian Lane will roll forward and has the potential to break the spirits of several of his rivals who won’t be able to go at his pace. He’ll come under fire in the final furlong, but he’s proven that he has the toughness to fend them off.
The barrier draw has not been kind to I’m Thunderstruck and Mr Brightside with the pair drawing barrier 9 and 10 respectively. Their task has been made tougher but if they obtain some cover, they have the class to prevail.