The Farmers Insurance provided some nice collects for followers with $51 shot Nicolai Hojgaard finishing second by just a single shot and triple figure hope Kevin Yu finishing within the Top 10 for the second straight week.
Confidence is high heading into the second elevated event of the new season at the famed Pebble Beach.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- GIR
- Ball Striking
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity: 175-200 Yards
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is essentially a putting competition with high value put on second strokes.
Players compete on three courses before finishing on Pebble Beach.
Hot putters win here and that usually comes on the back of elite iron play. What gets done off the tee is irrelevant.
The course setup is typically easy, as is usually the case in pro-ams.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Torrey Pines
- Open Championship
BEST BET
MAX HOMA
Max Homa has become a prolific winner on the PGA Tour with six career wins, five of which have come in the last 36 months with four of those coming in his home state of California.
In the last six stagings of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Homa has the third lowest average and has finished inside the Top 14 in his three starts here.
He is an elite putter – he finished last season ranked 3rd in Putting Average and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting – and his best putting comes on poa annua.
Won the Farmers Insurance last year and finished Top 13 in the event last week as well as the Open Championship last year.
Rates very highly this week.
BEST VALUE
NICOLAI HOJGAARD
In his first full year on the PGA Tour, European Ryder Cup star Nicolai Hojgaard was magnificent last week in the Farmers Insurance, finishing on -12, good enough for second and was beaten only by a magnificent recovery shot on the last hole by winner Matthieu Pavon.
He has four Top 7s in his last five starts and profiles nicely here with not only a Top 10 ranking in Putting Average but his runner-up finish last week and his Top 25 in the Open Championship last year.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
We might be seeing a return to form of 2021 Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama. It has been over two years since the Japanese star has won but he looks huge overs this week.
He was sneaky good at Torrey Pines finishing T-13 and he finished T-9 there the year prior and also finished T-13 in the 2023 Open Championship.
Matsuyama ranks 10th in Proximity: 175-200 Yards and 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach and can certainly contend this week though this is his debut and course experience typically adds value.
BEST ROUGHIES
KEVIN YU
Kevin Yu has had two excellent weeks and two excellent weeks for followers with back-to-back Top 10s with a T-3 in Palm Springs followed up by a T-6 in San Diego.
Last season Yu ranked 4th in GIR and 4th in Ball Striking.
His college golf was played on the West Coast and in his debut here last year he finished 7th.
Even though his price is dropping, he remains at delicious odds at publish.
JJ SPAUN
Los Angeles born, San Diego educated and Arizona residing JJ Spaun is a product of West Coast golf so will feel right at home here.
His last time at Pebble Beach, he finished T-16 and his iron game over the last 12 months has been very good.
Spaun ranks Top 15 in GIR, Ball Striking and Proximity from 175-200 Yards, along with Bogey Avoidance and with two Top 13 finishes in his last five starts, he can contend at big odds.
TOP ENGLISH
TOMMY FLEETWOOD
Only three Englishmen tee it up this week with Justin Rose the defending champion and Matt Fitzpatrick a former US Open winner the favourite.
Tommy Fleetwood is the bet though, he is an elite putter who ranks 8th in Putting Average and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
He has also finished Top 10 in the last two Opens.
TOP KOREAN
TOM KIM
Fancy Kim is going better than the favourite Sungjae Im and he is certainly a better course fit.
He ranks Top 14 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Ball Striking and Par 5 Scoring.