A capacity field of three-year-old fillies will take centre stage this Saturday at Eagle Farm for the Group 1 Queensland Oaks.
While the Group 1 Ladbrokes Queensland Derby was a one act affair last weekend with Warmonger decimating his rivals, the juvenile girls staying test looks to be a more competitive affair.
The Group 2 The Roses is the key lead up race and has provided 12 of the past 18 Queensland Oaks winners.
Favourites have a great record in recent years, winning eight times between 2006 and 2023 which bodes well for Scarlet Oak who is the $3.20 popular elect. The Chris Waller-trained filly also won The Roses so history is well and truly on her side.
Along with the race favourite, Waller will train a third of the field with no less than eight entrants in the $700k feature. The champion conditioner is looking for his fourth Queensland Oaks title after putting the polish on Winx (2015), Egg Tart (2017) and Youngstar (2018).
The Tony Pike-trained Provocative was the last New Zealand filly to win the race in 2016. The kiwis are not without hope in this year’s Oaks with representation from leading contenders, Group 1 winner Molly Bloom and Moonlight Magic who is on the quick back-up after finishing second in last week’s Queensland Derby.
We’ve run the rule over every runner in the 2024 Queensland Oaks to help you find the winner. (Prices current at time of publish)
1. Molly Bloom (10)
Price: $5.00
The New Zealand filly arrived in Australia in terrific form having won the Group 2 David & Karen Ellis Fillies Classic over 2000m at Te Rapa.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go the way of the Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott-trained three-year-old in the Gold Coast Bracelet when held up in the straight.
To her credit, she worked home strongly once clear, but the damage had been done and she finished 1.8 lengths second to Amazonian Lass.
Luck again wasn’t on her side last start in the Queensland Oaks when posted three deep the trip.
However, she demonstrated a real toughness to fight bravely for a 2.3 length fifth.
The Group 1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas winner is at peak fitness and looks primed for a massive showing with gun jockey Blake Shinn in the saddle.
2. Tutta La Vita (16)
Price: $19.00
The Chris Waller-trained filly returned from a six-week let-up in The Roses and did well to finish four lengths eighth given others had a fitness edge on her.
That run will have tuned her up nicely for the Group 1 feature.
She raced well during the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival, notably running a cracking race to finish a close second in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes as well as finishing third in the Group 1 Surround Stakes and placing fifth in the Group 1 Australian Oaks.
While she always races well, the daughter of The Autumn Sun doesn’t win out of turn having only won once from ten starts.
An outside gate is an obstacle she could have done without, however, if she gets some luck, she looks an each way chance.
3. Amazonian Lass (18)
Price: $21.00
Starting from an outside barrier, the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained filly was forced to work overtime to find the front in The Roses and that was telling with her folding like a deck chair with 300m to go.
That doesn’t bode well given she once again draws wide and has to rise 200m in distance.
The daughter of More Than Ready was in good form prior to last start, beaten by a nose in the Listed Princess Stakes three starts back and winning the Gold Coast Bracelet in impressive fashion.
The Group 2 Wakeful Stakes winner can turn things around after capitulating last start, but I’m happy for her to go around without me.
4. Scarlet Oak (15)
Price: $3.50
The former New Zealand filly has an abundance of ability and she has the right trainer in Chris Waller to bring the best out of her.
Prior to arriving in Australia, the daughter of Kermadec won her maiden at Matamata in impressive fashion.
Her first Australian run was full of merit, finishing second in the Group 3 James Carr Stakes at Randwick.
She could not have been more impressive two starts ago when putting her rivals away in a few bounds before arrogantly cruising to a 2.5 length win over a mile at Newcastle.
Her upward trajectory continued last start in The Roses where she was given a peach of a ride by James McDonald despite being briefly held up at the top of the straight to go on and win by a head.
McDonald commented post-race that he thought she gave him the feel of a miler but regardless if that’s the case, her class will take her a long way and she looks a leading contender in this year’s Oaks.
5. Moonlight Magic (6)
Price: $12.00
The Andrew Forsman-trained filly was outstanding when taking on the boys in the Queensland Derby last Saturday.
While she was well beaten by the absolute freak Warmonger, she caught the eye storming to the line from the back to finish second while easily accounting for the rest with third 2.8 lengths away.
Adding to the impressiveness of the run, she was six weeks between races so will strip a lot fitter here.
Prior to coming to Australia, she bolted in to win the Group 3 Trelawney Stud Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie by 2.5 lengths.
The fact that Forsman is racing her just a week after her last start heroics suggests that she has done extremely well since and that is enough for me to say she is a major player.
6. Mollynickers (8)
Price: $61.00
Most thought Autumn Angel would be Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman’s Queensland Oaks horse but she disappointed in the Derby last week and just this filly is left to fly the flag.
After winning back-to-back races as a two-year-old, wins have been hard to come by for the daughter of Pierro.
She settled a long way back before saving ground on the turn in The Roses, but failed to make an impression, finishing 6.2 lengths ninth.
She would need to turn things around quickly to be considered a winning chance.
7. Socks Nation (11)
Price: $81.00
It’s hard to see the Ciaron Maher-trained filly posing much of a threat here given she has never raced beyond 1800m or anywhere near this level.
8. Miss Joelene (22)
Price: $21.00
Kelly Schweida’s filly created a massive impression when finishing third by 0.6L in The Roses last start.
Despite drawing the outside gate in the field of 16, she stormed home, recording some of the quickest closing splits of the race.
Unfortunately, she again finds herself jumping from an outside gate which makes her task a difficult one.
As the only local horse in the race, I’d love to see her register another career peak and feature in the finish, but I think a place looks her best result.
9. Ahuriri (21)
Price: $7.50
The Chris Waller-trained filly has been given a five-week freshen-up after luckless run in the Group 1 South Australian Derby.
She looked to be full of running as they approached the home straight, but she was held up considerably before getting to the line strongly to finish 4.2 lengths fifth.
Two starts back she looked in another class when letting down powerfully to win the Listed VRC St Leger over 2800m.
Running out a strong 2200m will not be a problem but an outside barrier may be.
If she doesn’t get posted deep, then she can fight out the finish.
10. Good Banter (5)
Price: $19.00
The John O’Shea-trained daughter of Tavistock will take benefit from her 3.6 length seventh in The Roses given she was seven weeks between runs.
Two starts back she was simply awesome when getting the best of Autumn Angel to win the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes over 2000m at Randwick.
It should be noted that both her career wins have come on heavy tracks so she might not get the required sting out of the ground that she needs.
However, she does have one big factor in her favour and that is Jamie Kah climbing back in the saddle who can add a few lengths to a horse’s ability.
11. Mare Of Mt Buller (2)
Price: $8.50
There feels a real sense of timing about the Chris Waller-trained filly.
The daughter of Dundeel has thrived since arriving in Queensland, kicking off her campaign three starts ago in the Listed Princess Stakes where she was doing her best work late.
Two starts ago she was unlucky not to finish closer than her two-length third in the Gold Coast Bracelet after racing wide throughout and then being held up in the straight.
A warning siren sounded last start in The Roses when she clocked the quickest final 200m of the race despite being in the inferior going to finish a head second.
She maps to get a beautiful run from barrier 2 and will eat up the extra distance.
Put simply, she ticks all the boxes.
12. Our Gold Hope (13)
Price: $31.00
The Robert and Luke Price-trained filly seems over the odds in my opinion.
The daughter of Lope De Vega looks ready for a peak performance following excellent efforts to finish a close third in the Adrian Knox Stakes two starts ago before running on well for fourth in The Roses.
Craig Williams produces some of his finest work during the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival and his booking to ride gives her a fighting chance.
13. Oceans Of Energy (1)
Price: $101.00
The Matt Dunn-trained daughter of Dundeel won an Open Saturday Three-Year-Old race at Doomben four starts back but has been outclassed by many of the fillies she meets here in recent lead up contests. Hard to have.
14. Kind Words (23)
Price: $26.00
Trainer Kris Lees won this race last year with Amokura so he knows what it takes to get that prized black-type status.
There is a common theme throughout the daughter of Written Tycoon’s form and that’s “ran well but had bad luck.”
In her past three races, the Adrian Knox Stakes, the Gold Coast Bracelet and The Roses, on each occasion she was held up before working to the line well.
Unfortunately, it looks like history could repeat given she has drawn the outside barrier and will get back and need luck in running.
While I’m happy to let her go around without me, I would not be surprised if she managed to salute.
15. Gentileschi (4)
Price: $31.00
The daughter of Dundeel started this preparation in scintillating fashion by winning three races in a row.
While they were just her maiden, a Benchmark 58 Handicap and a Class 2 Handicap, each win was emphatic.
The bubble burst to a degree last start when she finished third in a Benchmark 65 Handicap over 1800m at the Sunshine Coast.
Given that plus the fact she’s never raced over this distance or anywhere near this level, she seems under the odds.
16. Unique Ambition (20)
Price: $71.00
The John Sargent-trained filly ventures north on the back of a tough head victory over 1600m in Scone Class 1 Handicap.
She’s failed to measure up in her three previous black-type races so I can’t see her threatening here.
17. Concello (7)
Price: $51.00
The Chris Waller-trained Trapeze Artist filly ran a bold race three starts ago when finishing third by 1.8 lengths in the Adrian Knox Stakes.
Hopes were high in the Australasian Oaks at her next start based on that run, but she disappointed and never gave a welp to finish 6.6 lengths third last.
Last start she dropped back to a Benchmark 72 Handicap where she ran well to finish a half-length second and that probably is about the level she is at this time of her career.
18. Firestorm (12)
Price: $51.00
It’s hard to gauge where the Chris Waller-trained filly is at this preparation after a roller coaster journey.
Three starts back she looked like the Winter Carnival was at her mercy as she savaged the line to finish a neck third in the Princess Stakes.
However, at her subsequent start, she suffered from poor recovery and didn’t go a yard in the heavy going to finish well down the track in the Gold Coast Bracelet.
She bounced back to form last start when finishing third by 1.2 lengths in the Drinkwise Mile but I just don’t like her setup for this race and am happy to put a line through her.
19e. Callistemon (17)
Price: $126.00
One of the rank outsiders of the field and it’s hard to disagree given she has been in the second half of Benchmark 72 Handicap races lately.
20e. Grey Ice (19)
Price: $41.00
The Bevan Laming-trained filly follows a similar path to last year’s winner, Amokura, in that she beat up a lowly Sunshine Coast field at her previous start to the Oaks.
This is a massive step up in class and she appears to do her best work on heavy tracks.
21e. Kenyada (3)
Price: $81.00
The daughter of Kermadec bolted in at Ipswich two starts ago before running a decent race to finish third over a mile in a Benchmark 68 Handicap last start.
That form suggests midweek win not Oaks contender.
22e. Ala Moana (14)
Price: $61.00
She won over this distance by 3.3 lengths at Bendigo last start in impressive fashion, but it was a 0-64 Handicap so it’s hard to see that standing up well here.
23e. Ring Me Up (9)
Price: $126.00
She was easily accounted for at Ipswich last start when carrying just 52.5kg and now will carry 56.5kg in a Group 1. Hard no.
The Judgement
This is a fascinating edition of the race with a handful of genuine winning chances.
Chris Waller has a powerful team of fillies heading to the race and I’m with one of them in Mare Of Mt Buller.
She is peaking at the right time with her last start second in The Roses where she stormed home in the quickest final 200m of the race despite being in the slowest going supporting that.
She’ll love the rise in distance and maps to get a beautiful, economical run.
I think she ticks all the boxes and offers excellent each way value.
Selections:
1st – Mare Of Mt Buller
2nd – Molly Bloom
3rd – Scarlet Oak
4th – Moonlight Magic