Time to spice up your Saturday punting? Ladbrokes’ roughie tips are your guide to potential long-shot glory in the majors this weekend!
The Sydney Autumn Carnival is behind us, and attention moves interstate as the action in Adelaide and Perth heats up.
We had a shocker last weekend with our Randwick roughies running out of the money but let’s see if we can’t turn that around with two Group 1s at Morphettville with the time-honoured Robert Sangster Stakes and Australasian Oaks, plus the $5 million The Quokka in WA to chase the riches in.
Ready to punt like a pro on Saturday? Lucy Henderson seeks atonement with her insider’s guide to potential big wins with some value weekend betting plays on the ponies!
Morphettville Race 7 (4:07PM AEST) – Group 1 $1 million Australasian Oaks (2000m)
VALUE: 4. CINCH ($8 at time of publish)
Cinch is a value runner in terrific form in the 2025 Australasian Oaks. Photo: Jenny Barnes.
CINCH (15) has been on the radar for the Australasian Oaks all season and enters Saturday’s race chasing a fourth consecutive victory looking at a nice price to extend her winning streak.
Trained by Ben, Will & JD Hayes, this Dundeel filly’s staying credentials were emphatically stamped with her three-length romp home in the Group 3 Tasmanian Oaks (2100m) at Launceston back in February.
Her impressive first-up triumph in the Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m) at Morphettville, a key form race that has produced multiple Oaks winners, signals she’s primed for this Group 1 test over further.
She had a long neck to spare on the line over All Kinds Of Folk to put her right in the frame for this chasing the Auraria Stakes / Australasian Oaks double for the first time since Sopressa (2018).
Serious Each Way contender now off that key lead-up win with improvement expected.
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 10. ALL KINDS OF FOLK ($19 at time of publish)
All Kinds Of Folk (11) brings in the right form lines to the Oaks to suggest another top three run isn’t outside her reach.
John & Chris Ledger’s D’Argento filly was second last in the VRC Oaks behind super star Treasurethe Moment in the spring but looks to have matured now and is racing better this prep.
She got her confidence up second-up with a Maiden Plate win over the mile at Benalla on March 22 when destroying an easier field of rivals by an incredible 12 lengths with 57kg on her back.
Went back to Group company here in the Auraria after that and was only 0.38 lengths back second to Cinch.
Narrowly denied in what has been a stellar race historically for the Oaks runners, she has Blaike McDougall aboard again.
Drawn wider out but don’t mind that for her.
Can surprise.
Place.
Morphettville Race 8 (4:42PM AEST) – Group 1 $1 million Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m)
VALUE: 8. AVIATRESS ($12 at time of publish)
Aviatress can surprise a few in the Robert Sangster at Morphettville. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Aviatress (6) is a recent Listed Matrice Stakes winner at the track and trip who is getting some early support in Robert Sangster betting backed in from $17 to $12 at time of publish.
Happy to follow the money trail with this Richard & Chantelle Jolly trained Smart Missile four-year-old appealing in the Each Way markets.
A six-time winner from 13 starts she has consistency and looks to be building up to another good performance.
Was impressive last season in Melbourne taking out a Group 3 at Caulfield over the six-furlongs by nearly three lengths during the spring.
Fresh here her 1.75 length margin in the Black-Type with 57.5kg put her on the radar again.
Last time out she ran just worse than mid-field when sixth in the Group 3 RN Irwin when back to 1100m behind Asfoora. She was under two lengths off the winner in a close finish however and will appreciate getting back to 1200m third-up and fit.
Looks one of the forgotten chances to run a place. Happy to keep safe from a nice barrier six draw.
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 4. ESTRIELLA ($17 at time of publish)
Estriella (2) is drawn a treat in barrier two with Ben Melham partnering this four-year-old daughter of I Am Invincible third-up with atonement on the cards.
She hails from the powerhouse Ciaron Maher yard and comes off two unplaced runs, but not without merit.
On a hard Good (3) Caulfield track she was 14th to subsequent All Aged champ Jimmysstar in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) then 11th last time out narrowing the margin in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) in Sydney at 30/1.
She has been racing in some elite company and gets a chance at a top three run now with sharp improvement pending as she comes back against her own kind.
Her spring form was stronger including an impressive Group 2 Caulfield Sprint win over Rey Magnerio with 59kg.
Hasn’t quite looked the goods yet this time in but has the sniff of returning to her best at a price.
Ascot Race 8 (5:45PM AEST) – $5 million The Quokka (1200m)
VALUE: 6. HEADWALL ($6.50 at time of publish)
Headwall can give this year’s The Quokka race a shake-up! Photo: Steve Hart.
Look, no denying Overpass (10) is an enormous chance to win his historic third The Quokka on the trot, but looking over the field the value runner has to be Headwall (8).
Really keen on an Each Way play on this super-consistent galloper who has been so good in the best of company interstate all campaign and continually underrated!
The Matthew Smith trained son of Dream Ahead is west bound now rock hard fifth having his fourth run off a brilliant prep. He looks so deserving of a top-level win too having been close in all three runs so far.
He was forgotten first-up at 25/1 running an eye-catching fourth in the Oakleigh, and he was ignored again despite getting in on a light weight when running a lovely second making up all the ground from right back in the pack to Waller’s ace mare Joliestar down the Flemington straight in the Newmarket Handicap.
The TJ Smith third behind Briasa at his latest saw him run out of his skin in a race that is proving the sprint of the spring! He had 58.5kg on his back there and was so close to the second-placed Overpass that seeing him turn the tables now isn’t without question.
Believe he hasn’t reached the top of his abilities and may have kept something special in the tank for this.
Will get the favours he needs from the alley and has the in-form Zac Lloyd aboard again.
He’s coming for the favourite!
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 12. GENEROSITY ($34 at time of publish)
Generosity (4) was the final runner to confirm her spot in The Quokka field having been snapped up late by Magic Bloodstock Racing.
This talented Divine Prophet mare from the stables of Simon Miller is going great guns this prep and is well acquainted with the track and trip.
She was a Black-Type winner here two back over 1400m before going up to Group 3 grade for the Roma Cup when third only a length beaten at a big price.
That run was excellent considering she went back to a sharp 1100m. Back to the 1200m now.
Lucy Fiore has been in the saddle her past two and retains the ride for the major.
She’s in this and looks overs for a place.
Place.
Good luck punters!