Ready to back a bold outsider? Ladbrokes has uncovered the Saturday roughies with real potential to cause a stir this weekend!
The spring countdown is well and truly on making for some top racing action around the grounds this weekend including a triple-shot of Group events on the P.B. Lawrence Stakes Day card at Caulfield.
We’ve got the inside word on the best value in all three of those Melbourne events, plus a nice-priced tip to win the Listed The Rosebud in Sydney.
With four Black-Types and plenty more to come over the next few weeks and months, let’s dive in.
Ladbrokes’ trusted Value Whisperer, Lucy Henderson, has her sights set on Saturday’s best-value roughies. Check out her top picks below!
Rosehill Race 5 (1:55PM AEST) – Listed $200,000 The Rosebud (1100M)
No. 7 Grand Prairie ($7.50 at time of publish)
It’s a super tight betting affair in this year’s The Rosebud with a diminutive field but going the value with a likely Heavy track putting the progressive GRAND PRAIRIE (2) in the frame as the longest priced of the contenders.
His price appeals as this overlooked Written Tycoon colt is putting together a nice record and comes from Peter Snowden who is a master trainer of youngsters.
He won fresh at Kensington in easier grade to break his maiden status fresh before facing a bottomless Heavy (10) track here at Rosehill last time out.
Far from disgraced in that BM72 event where he faced the four-year-olds, he ran second to Stardeel over 1200m.
Back against his own age and down in distance, he looks a definite Each Way chance at least with Tom Sherry retaining the ride on the field’s 53.5kg light weight.
Tipped him at acceptance time closer to $10 and there’s been a market mover making now the right time to get involved.
WIN
Caulfield Race 5 (2:45PM AEST) – Group 3 $200,000 Vain Stakes (1100M)
No. 3 McGaw ($9 at time of publish)
Really open edition of the Vain Stakes where the early Caulfield Guineas betting picture will get a little clearer.
For value, MCGAW (7) stands out for mine being an undefeated son of I Am Immortal with a budding record.
The Emma-Lee & David Browne trained gelding chases his third win from as many starts, has won over this 1100m distance fresh when saluting on debut at Pakenham by 3.5 lengths in January and he’s also proven at the Caulfield track.
He was last seen winning here in mid-March when taking out the lucrative $1 million VOBIS Platinum Showdown (1200m) by a half-length over Befuddle. He overcame gate 13 of 15 that day and is set to appreciate facing just seven rivals on Saturday.
He benefits from the booking of Damian Lane again, Lane having ridden him for his two previous starts, and having carried 58kg in both of those victories he’ll also relish the 56kg in the Group 3.
Big future and big claims to prove that here.
WIN
Caulfield Race 6 (3:25PM AEST) – Group 3 $200,000 Quezette Stakes (1100M)
No. 1 The Playwright ($8.50 at time of publish)
Plenty of form lines and intrigue in this year’s Quezette Stakes field but I’m finding it hard to ignore the price on THE PLAYWRIGHT (6) who for mine is the classiest filly in this line-up.
The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained daughter of Written By had a huge juvenile season that started right from her debut win at Rosehill last November. Group 3 placed at her next start, she was eye-catching when fourth to O’ Ole in the Gold Coast’s $3 million Magic Millions 2YO Classic at big odds having just her third run.
She went on to win the Group 3 Widden Stakes (1100m) by the barest of margins before going out at double-figures and racing better than her price in the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes crossing fourth only 2.6 lengths off Devil Night here at Caulfield.
Those are some pretty impressive 2YO references coming into a race like this against her own kind.
Still getting in okay in the weights, she’s had the benefit of two solid Sydney trials and looks a massive chance to salute fresh from a mid-field draw with Blake Shinn coming aboard.
Well overlooked.
WIN
Caulfield Race 8 (4:35PM AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400M)
No. 7 Sepals ($11 at time of publish)
An absolutely cracking edition of the P.B. Lawrence with a few genuine Group 1 contenders for the spring in the mix including EVAPORATE (3) who took a closer look at in our Spring Prospects Watchlist – available here – but for Place value SEPALS (7) at double-figures now is very appealing.
Cliff Brown’s lightly raced Calyx gelding steps out as a new season four-year-old with a strong record last season to rely on and benefits from maturity now.
He’s only had the five starts but already has a trio of wins, and all three of those victories were over this 1400m distance which bodes well.
Going through the grades over a progressive summer – autumn prep, he was huge putting 3.25 lengths on Ndola in the Group 3 CS Hayes (1400m) at Flemington in mid-February.
Up to elite level after that on March 1 he more than held his own for a fourth in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) over a mile only two lengths off Feroce who came via a CS Hayes third which further franks these form lines.
Brought on fitness-wise with two forward enough trials at Mornington, he is one that should have zero issues resuming over the 1400m and there’s options from gate seven.
The in-form Ethan Brown comes aboard and, while this is next-level stuff for the up-and-comer, I don’t think a top three performance is out of the question.
With EVAPORATE at $3.80 in the markets, the drift on SEPALS from $7 out to $11 makes him the dark horse with something to prove.
PLACE
Good luck punters!
For more Caulfield track insights ahead of the spring majors, also make sure you check out our insider The Punters’ Playbook: Caulfield Spring Carnival Deep Dive!