Don’t overlook this weekend’s long shots: Ladbrokes has spotted the Saturday roughies that might just defy the odds!
Group 1 racing continues in Melbourne with The Valley hosting another exciting edition of the Moir Stakes, and we’ve got an overlooked sprinter to take for a place as The Everest credentials go on the line.
This weekend’s Sydney race card at Randwick is also stacked with a host of major lead-ups including the Chelmsford Stakes, and there are a few underrated runners in the day’s features to get behind.
We were one from three with our selections last weekend having found the Group 3 McNeil Stakes runner-up McGaw at a good price. Let’s see if we can’t improve and make it a full house this week.
Ladbrokes Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson is back in the saddle – and if you love a roughie, these are the ones you won’t want to miss!
Randwick Race 7 (3:20pm AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m)
No. 1 ARAPAHO ($11 at time of publish)
ARAPAHO (4) is in the Chelmsford field this weekend second-up and looking an underrated player at 10/1 in the markets again.
We tipped Bjorn Baker’s Group 1 Sydney Cup champ for a top three performance fresh in the Group 1 Winx Stakes (1400m), and he ran out of his skin to round out the trifecta on a Heavy (10) behind the queen Via Sistina.
Closing well late to show he still had plenty of racing left in him, this gelding is all guts and after the lovely return his credentials for another run in the money at a price shouldn’t be discounted.
He was absolutely enormous over the unsuitably short distance in the Winx, and the evergreen nine-year-old presents fitter for the run ready to surprise once more.
Suited to a step-up to 1600m from a good gate four draw with Rachel King retaining the ride, he’ll be off pace and closing hard so watch for him late.
Randwick Race 8 (3:55pm AEST) – Group 3 $1,000,000 Concorde Stakes (1000m).
No. 13 NEW YORK LUSTRE (14)
I’ve been plugging NEW YORK LUSTRE (14) for a while, and she’s come so close to getting in the money at her latest two so I’m going to give her one more chance.
This is a Group 3 race, but it has lots of depth, so no doubt she needs to rise. However maybe a trip north to Sydney can see her get into the first three.
The six-year-old daughter of Manhattan Rain is one of the genuine short-distance specialists in the mix with three wins from four 1000m starts and I think that will count for a lot here.
She’s rock-hard fit and was good at a price when fourth only two lengths off Baraqiel at The Valley in the Listed Norman Carylon at her latest on August 23.
That’s a form line I really like and with Baraqiel one of the best in Group 1 Moir Stakes betting in Melbourne on Saturday, the price on this mare out of the same event appeals.
Prepared by Enver Jusufovic, she’s a five-time winner overall from 11 starts so still has upside and continues to improve.
She makes her first Sydney appearance this Saturday so how she handles the other way of racing will be key, and the draw does make it tricky, but she’s sharp and I think she can stay in touch with some of these The Everest bound stars.
Randwick Race 9 (4:35pm) – Group 2 Tramway Stakes (1400m)
No. 4 WILLYDOIT (15)
Former Kiwi galloper WILLYDOIT (15) has drawn a nasty gate in the Tramway but I’m not ruling out a top three run for his return.
Debuting for his new stable, I love that he’s now in the care of Ciaron Maher who will be able to get this four-year-old Tarzino gelding back to his best.
He has won four of his seven starts including most notably the Group 1 NZ Derby (2400m) by a barnstorming 2.3 lengths at Ellerslie in March earlier in the year.
That day he overcame gate 14 of 16 so he can do it from wider out, although he did have plenty more metres to get there.
His run for fourth behind Waller’s brilliant five-length champion filly Aeliana when he came down under for the Group 1 ATC Derby was brave.
Aeliana franked that form at this track and trip when second in the Winx Stakes, which bodes well for this horse on Saturday.
He’s had just the one trial at Warwick Farm on Heavy going ahead of his first-up run, but he’s got class and presents more mature ready to put his hand up for a Group 1 assignment this spring.
Moonee Valley Race 9 (4:50PM AEST) – Group 1 $750,000 Moir Stakes (1000m)
No. 4 GOLDEN BOOM ($31 at time of publish)
Tony Gollan’s six-year-old Spirit Of Boom gelding GOLDEN BOOM (13) looks set to be one of the pacesetters in this year’s Moir Stakes and has place potential at huge odds. While overlooked by the market, he’s no stranger to The Valley – Saturday marks his third start at the track, where he’s already placed twice.
His strong 1000m record (10:3-3-2) suggests he’s capable of outperforming expectations in this sharp sprint.
The only other Group 1 outing of his was a disappointing 12th in the Oakleigh Plate, but that run came with excuses after he worked hard mid-race to find the lead and faded late.
Second-up here, he’s well placed to improve, especially after a solid third in the Norman Carlyon Stakes first-up – a race that I think form wise will stack-up.
Barrier 15 (now 13 after scratchings) is a challenge, as Moir winners rarely come from wide gates, but his explosive early speed and short-course credentials make him a dangerous on-pace threat if race conditions favour leaders.
Definitely worth including in exotics.
Good luck punters!