The AFL’s biggest week kicks off with the Brownlow Medal and it is shaping up to be a hotly contested race for the game’s highest individual honour.
We have been running a tracker all season long and you can see how those votes unfolded in our Round 24 recap here.
We have analysed the markets and come up with our best bets for Monday night’s extravaganza below.
Brownlow Winner
With the way Nick Daicos finished the season, it’s tough to argue with his favouritism in this market but you wonder if his slow start to the year might wind up costing him.
It would be a shame to see him go close but not close enough for a third straight year but I’m willing to take on the favourite as it stands.
Noah Anderson won our Brownlow tracker and looks like a solid play at $6.50 and should poll better than Jordan Dawson at the same price.
We have him receiving a league high seven three vote games and getting votes in 14 total, which will be the difference and should get him over the line.
Perhaps the only concern is that his teammate Matt Rowell could pinch a few votes off him throughout the season but Anderson has been the standout across the season.
Noah Anderson to Win @ $6.50
Top 3 Votes
It is very rare for two teammates to sit so high up the ladder but Matt Rowell finishing top three as projected would be a fitting reward for their progress this season.
Working in his favour too is the fact that it really was a two man show for the Suns and he should be earning plenty of votes in his own right.
Consistency is key and that really does help the case of the two Suns, with good arguments just off the rest of the field.
Jordan Dawson looks way too short in the market, Daicos will go close but that slow start is going to cost him the overall honours and Bailey Smith missing games will cruel his chances.
Matt Rowell Top 3 @ $2.50
Top 5 and Top 10
Going for a couple of long shot plays in these markets as there I just can’t escape this nagging feeling that Isaac Heeney is going to poll much better than expected despite the Swans being one of the most disappointing teams in recent memory.
Zak Butters could also poll well and finish on a strong note after missing the first month of the season.
Both of those guys are just outside of their respective fields in the projections but the margins to break through are very slim.
We have Butters polling 25 votes but another two would send him from ninth to tied-fifth and three would put him outright fifth.
Meanwhile Heeney would need just two or three games to be viewed differently and it could leapfrog him over a whole lot of other players into the top ten.
Zak Butters Top 5 @ $5.00
Isaac Heeney Top 10 @ $5.00
Top 20
Couple of Lions players leap out of this market.
For Lachie Neale it’s the same story as above, he is projected to be one vote shy of the top 20 and while he did miss time, his impact on the field is still as good as it gets.
Meanwhile his teammate Will Ashcroft did land a little lower on the projections but there were a couple of games where he looked a bit hard done by to miss out on a vote and if the umpires see it differently he could rise up the ladder.
Lachie Neale Top 20 @ $2.25
Leader After Round 6
Through six rounds of action we had Geelong’s Bailey Smith one vote clear of Nick Daicos so there could be some value around him on the third line of betting.
Bailey Smith Leader After Round 6 @ $5.00
Leader After Round 15
We had a shock leader after Round 15 with Caleb Serong topping the Brownlow votes at this stage of the season with 20.
He was two clear of Smith and three ahead of our projected overall winner Noah Anderson.
Worth a pop at this price.
Caleb Serong Leader After Round 15 @ $9.00