Looking to land a blow at juicy odds this weekend? With feature racing all over the country, Ladbrokes has pinpointed the roughies capable of surprising — and delivering serious value for punters.
Last Saturday we delivered with a couple of juicy placegetters including After Summer (3rd in the Oaks) and Highland Bling (3rd in the Sydney Cup), so we’re back at it ready for the autumn’s final Group 1s!
All Aged Stakes Day in Sydney is stacked and there’s plenty of overlooked roughies getting around, the Mornington Cup looks full of double-figures with genuine claims, while in Perth The Quokka card features a stack of value outside the top fancies.
Lucy Henderson — the Ladbrokes Value Whisperer — is back in action, delivering her best long‑odds plays this Saturday.
Randwick Race 5 – Group 3 $250,000 Frank Packer Plate (2000m)
No. 5 Decalogue
DECALOGUE (12) has a wide alley to overcome in the Frank Packer, but this Ciaron Maher-trained improver ticks a few boxes to run in the money again.
The son of Extreme Choice remains a maiden after six starts, but he’s got three podium finishes on his CV and rarely runs a bad race.
He comes via a strong form race when fourth at 30/1 on Slow going in Rosehill’s Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) behind subsequent ATC Derby third placegetter Storm Leopard.
That bodes well for this guy now who sticks at the 2000m and has the talented Ethan Brown coming aboard.
Before the Tulloch, he almost pinched a Wyong Super Maiden when rolling forward and giving a big sight, only getting nabbed late.
That on‑pace style is his weapon, and he’ll be using it again here.
He’s fit, he’s honest, and he maps to land right up on the speed in a race where being in the first few could be a big advantage.
If he gets into a rhythm and controls his sectionals, he’s a top three chance for mine.
| 5. Decalogue (12) Scratched: | |||
Randwick Race 6 – Group 3 $250,000 JRA Plate (2000m)
No. 6 Encoder
The JRA Plate looks wide open, and I love the local Michael Freedman-trained ENCODER (4) to give the favourites a scare at close to double figures.
Drawn a dream in gate four with the airborne Zac Lloyd coming aboard in a big tick, this Encryption five-year-old has winning form up to 2200m but is without a top three run from four 2000m starts to date, which explains the price.
He comes via a Gold Coast Stakes win over 1800m in mid-March, and the gelding returns to his preferred set‑up of having his runs nicely spaced now.
Too strong five weeks back, he put away a handy field with plenty in hand, and he’s since kept ticking over with a sharp Beaudesert trial over 1400m.
From a perfect stalking position behind what should be a solid tempo, he gets every chance to produce another peak performance and is right in the mix at a good price.
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6. Encoder (3)
J: Zac Lloyd 56kg
x7201T: Michael Freedman
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Randwick Race 7 – Group 1 $1 million Champagne Stakes (1600m)
No. 11 Grinzinger Heart
The day’s opening Group 1 features a class field of two-year-olds and, while I’m on the Inglis Sires’ winner Campione D’italia to do the double, GRINZINGER HEART (7) at 20/1 at the other end of the market looks a standout place chance.
Ben Brisbouren’s Toronado filly may be having just her third start, but she heads north now off two good Melbourne runs at HQ to kick off her career.
She only debuted in mid-Feb and was solid running fourth to Hard Kick in the Listed Talindert at 30/1 before relishing a rise in distance to narrowly deny Zambales victory in the Group 2 VRC Sires’ (1400m) at another huge starting price.
Looking forgotten in the markets again, she’s one set to relish the mile and she’s been kept fit with two eye-catching trials.
A class test again up in grade and sees Sydney for the first time, but confident after breaking her maiden status and drawn well mid-field with top hoop Craig Williams sticking with.
An interesting blowout hope after making the trip up from Victoria, fresh off a strong win, and she should push forward again.
I’m expecting her to be in the firing line for a long way.
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11. Grinzinger Heart (6)
J: Craig Williams 54.5kg
41T: Ben Brisbourne
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Randwick Race 8 – Group 3 $250,000 Hall Mark Stakes (1200m)
No. 10 Brave One
BRAVE ONE (6) is a seriously tempting roughie this weekend, kicking off his prep after a four‑and‑a‑half‑month freshen and landing at a very backable price in the Hall Mark.
This Hawkes‑trained sprinter has always hinted at bigger things, and he’s the type who can easily run well above his quote — especially first‑up.
His record speaks for itself (10:4‑3‑1), he loves Randwick, and the 1200m is right in his sweet spot.
He’s shown before that he can fire fresh, and last prep he chased hard under a big weight here before going on to win a BM94 and then finish a close third in the Razor Sharp behind Weeping Woman — form that has stacked up beautifully since.
Winkers go on, he maps to be right on the speed, and if he turns up in anything like his spring form, he’s absolutely capable of landing in the finish at a juicy price.
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10. Brave One (6)
J: Dylan Gibbons 56kg
x213xT: M, W & J Hawkes
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Mornington Race 8 – Listed $300,000 Mornington Cup (2400m)
No. 13 Suntora
SUNTORA (16) has a wide gate and carries over allocation in the Mornington Cup but with plenty of time to overcome the alley I think she’s the double-figure sleeper in the field with a consistent enough record to suggest a top three finish.
The Nick Ryan-trained Toronado four-year-old has been near the top of her game this prep running back-to-back thirds and building to something like this.
She was third at a huge price in the Group 2 Sunline Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield behind a very good mare in Treasurethe Moment before a Country Oaks third over 2000m at Ballarat with 58kg on her back under a length off Too Darn Discreet and sticking on well.
Good form lines and drops back to 54.5kg (carrying 55kg) with a jockey change seeing Daniel Stackhouse take the mount.
The rise to the Cup trip looks ideal based on her latest run, and with the blinkers going on she should sharpen right up.
Expect her to settle around midfield, build into the race from the bend, and stay on strongly late.
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13. Suntora (14)
J: Daniel Stackhouse 54.5kg
31133T: Nick Ryan
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Randwick Race 9 – Group 1 $1.5 million All Aged Stakes (1400m)
No. 11 Fangirl
FANGIRL (8) is back after a five‑and‑a‑half‑month break, and at double‑figure odds in a stacked All Aged Stakes, she looks a seriously tasty Each-Way play.
Waller’s superstar mare absolutely loves Randwick — she’s won multiple Group 1s here, including last year’s Queen Of The Turf and 7 Stakes — and her first‑up record is rock solid.
We haven’t seen her since she ran a brave fourth behind Pride Of Jenni in the Empire Rose during Cup Week, but the 1400m fresh is right in her wheelhouse, and her stats at the trip are elite.
Ben Melham jumps on and has been riding in terrific touch this autumn.
Expect her to flop out, find a spot just worse than midfield and be saved for one big, booming run down the outside — exactly how she does her best work at Randwick.
With genuine speed up front and her late sectionals always among the sharpest in the race, Fangirl looks beautifully placed to launch fresh and give this a huge shake at a very appealing price.
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11. Fangirl (8)
J: Ben Melham 57kg
4164xT: Chris Waller
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Ascot Race 7 – Group 2 $500,000 Karrakatta Plate (1200m)
No. 2 He’s A Machino
A talented line-up of juveniles in Perth’s key support act on The Quokka Day and HE’S A MACHINO (9) for Sean & Jake Casey looks well overs for another top three effort.
The Maschino colt won over the 1000m here on debut last December before recording another two placings this prep.
Resumed with a third to Saturday’s favourite Aurum Belle here in a Black-Type when sitting on the speed and boxing on well, before going one better behind stablemate Beatty on April 4 in the Listed Perth Stakes (1100m) narrowly denied having rolled along in front before being nailed late in a race I think can stack up form-wise.
Benefits from the booking of Tyler Schiller, the horse is third‑up now, fitter, and with the winkers going on to sharpen him, he’s poised to run another big race.
He maps to lead or sit right on the pace, and if he gets into his rhythm early, looks more than capable of sticking on and finishing in the money.
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2. He’s A Machino (7)
J: Tyler Schiller 57kg
1×32T: Sean & Jake Casey
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Ascot Race 8 – $5 million The Quokka (1200m)
No. 8 Rope Them In
Where to look in The Quokka? I really like a few others for the win including Rey Magnerio, but ROPE THEM IN (10) could be the surprise force coming in fit second-up off a win fresh.
Steve Wolfe’s Playing God five-year-old is one of the best tried at his home Ascot track (17: 4-3-0) and his 1200m strike-rate is solid (11: 4-0-1) so he’ll relish getting up to the six furlongs now.
Kicked off his prep returning off a four-month break in style denying fellow The Quokka contenders Smooth Chino and Oscar’s Fortune victory in a narrow but convincing Group 3 Roma Cup (1100m) victory having charged home from midfield to nail them right on the line.
For mine, that’s the strongest piece of local form going into this race, and he did it with plenty left in the tank.
Fourth in the Winterbottom last year with only 1.5 lengths between him and the winner, Shaun McGruddy retains the ride on Saturday, and he gets a suitable Soft track.
Second‑up has also been a sweet spot for him — last prep he ran a huge race when finishing a close second in the G3 Asian Beau over 1400m at this track.
With the blinkers on to sharpen him up and a midfield map that should let him blend into the race at the right time, he’s set up beautifully to run another big one.
At the price, Rope Them In shapes as the best value play of the locals and a genuine knockout chance.
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8. Rope Them In (10)
J: Shaun Mcgruddy 58.5kg
249×1T: Steve Wolfe
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Good luck punters!