The last five-match NRL round of the season presents the Panthers, Broncos and Dolphins with big gaps to plug ahead of crucial encounters.
The Broncos and Tigers, in particular, will be desperate to notch a win and stay in the finals frame.
Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions
Suffering back-to-back upset losses and missing their Origin stars, the Panthers will be eager to halt the slide on Friday against the regrouping Rabbitohs.
FORM: After losing just one of their first 13 games, the ladder-leading Panthers have dropped consecutive matches to the Titans (19-18) and Cowboys (26-12) on the road in huge upsets.
The Rabbitohs emerged from a three-game losing streak to win their last two in convincing fashion – against the Broncos (48-6) and Eels (32-12) either side of the Round 16 bye.
INS AND OUTS: Jack Cogger lines up at halfback, while Scott Sorensen, Luke Garner and Lindsay Smith feature in the back-row with Origin trio Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin, and injured Isaiah Papali’i unavailable.
Jack Wighton returns for Souths, allowing Tallis Duncan to revert to a back-row missing NSW star Cam Murray. Lachlan Hubner comes in at lock and debutant Dayne Jennings comes onto the wing for the injured Alex Johnston.
KEY MATCH-UP: Spurned by the Blues, Brian To’o will have a point to prove – which spells danger for the Rabbitohs and lumbering wing enigma Ed Kosi.
HISTORY: The Panthers have won 13 of their last 16 against the Rabbitohs, but the ledger was square in 2025. Souths won 28-18 at Accor Stadium in Round 4, while Penrith prevailed 30-10 in Round 20 at CommBank.
KEY STAT: Brian To’o is try-less in his last five games against the Rabbitohs.
VERDICT: The Panthers won’t take kindly to their two losses in Queensland and return to their temporary Commbank Stadium base, where they have won 11 of their last 12 (5-0 in 2026). The heavyweights have performed strongly without Cleary and co, relying on steely defence.
The Rabbitohs have picked off some long-hanging fruit in recent weeks but this shapes as a tough assignment as injuries continue to bite, while Murray’s absence can’t be understated.
Prediction: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.98
SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 45.5 POINTS / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.43
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers Predictions
The ‘Merger Bowl’ sees the Dragons striving for just their second win of the year and the Tigers clinging to their finals survival.
FORM: Since their sole victory over the Broncos, the bottom-placed Saints have shown encouraging signs in losses to the Sharks (34-12 after leading at halftime), Knights (22-20 after scoring four tries to three) and Raiders (24-16 after copping a horrendous Bunker call).
The Tigers have won only two of their last eight games, though their 12-6 loss at Newcastle was a step in the right direction after conceding 28-plus in six of their previous seven games.
INS AND OUTS: The Dragons are unchanged. Jarome Luai (concussion) will sit out the game with Jock Madden coming in to the Tigers’ halves. Heamasi Makasini replaces Taylan May (shoulder) at centre, while Alex Twal is back from a four-game layoff.
KEY MATCH-UP: Veteran hookers Damien Cook and Apisai Koroisau lock horns for the 18th time, a record for both players.
HISTORY: The Dragons have won five of the teams’ last seven encounters, but the Tigers won the sole clash last year – 34-28 in Magic Round.
KEY STAT: The Saints are on a seven-match losing streak at their home grounds.
VERDICT: The Dragons have shown real spirit over the past month and have been unfortunate to not pick up another couple of wins. The Tigers are teetering but Adam Doueihi’s return had a marked difference on their performance last week – while Madden is a great foil in Luai’s stead.
Given the importance of these two points, expect the Tigers to build on their gutsy showing in Newcastle and display some of the intensity and flair that had them on track for the Top 8 early in the season.
Prediction: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: TIGERS WIN / UNDER 48.5 POINTS / ADAM DOUEIHI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.20
Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks Predictions
Staring down the barrel of eight straight losses, the Origin-depleted Broncos must dig deep to turn things around against the Sharks and save their title defence.
FORM: The Broncos produced their best performance in a couple of months in a 24-18 loss to the Roosters, but with a 5-11 record the Top 8 ship is starting to sail.
The Sharks’ impressive four-match winning streak ended 27-8 at the hands of the Roosters in Round 16, before sitting out last week with their final bye.
INS AND OUTS: The unavailability of Origin trio Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas is compounded by injuries to Aublix Tawha and Jack Gosiewski, and a club suspension for Josiah Karapani.
Hayze Perham is the Broncos’ fullback, while Grant Anderson shifts to the wing with Gehamat Shibasaki returning, and Deine Mariner is back on the other flank. Vaa Semu comes in for Haas.
Cronulla is without Blues Addin Fonua-Blake and Blayke Brailey, and Maroons second-rower Briton Nikora. Tom Hazelton, Jayden Berrell and Billy Burns come into the starting pack.
KEY MATCH-UP: Adam Reynolds needs to take charge for the battling Broncos – and his individual showdown with Nicho Hynes, whose mid-season
HISTORY: The Broncos have won 10 of their last 13 against the Sharks, including a 34-28 victory in the sole 2025 encounter – in Round 16 at Suncorp.
KEY STAT: Five of the last six Broncos-Sharks encounters have produced 46 points or less, while the biggest margin in the last eight clashes is 10 points.
VERDICT: It’s just about now or never for the Broncos…so it’s less than ideal that Walsh, Haas and Carrigan are unavailable, on top of some key injuries. This has been a fruitful match-up for the Broncos for several years, though.
Meanwhile, the Sharks looked ordinary in Hynes’ return and are missing some key pieces to Origin, too. If the Broncos replicate the backbone they showed last week, an upset is on the cards.
Prediction: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS WIN / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / GRANT ANDERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILLIAM KENNEDY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.70
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Predictions
The Eels are in the midst of what is looming as a wasted year, while the Sea Eagles are setting their sights on the top four.
FORM: The Eels have won one of their last five and were lapped 32-12 by the Rabbitohs last Thursday.
The Sea Eagles have had a couple of bumps over the past month, but they bounced back from a 13-12 loss to the Bulldogs with a 30-4 rout of the Storm last Saturday to keep pace with the top four.
INS AND OUTS: Jonah Pezet returns to NRL duty for the first time since Round 5, replacing NSW star Mitch Moses at halfback in Parramatta’s only change.
Joey Walsh comes in following Luke Brooks’ season-ending ACL injury, while Clayton Faulalo and Reuben Garrick return in the Manly backline with Tolu Koula in Origin camp and Josh Feledy dropping out. Kobe Hetherington is also back and Corey Waddell replaces NSW’s Haumole Olakau’atu.
KEY MATCH-UP: Ronald Volkman has been doing a superb job in the halves during a tough period for the Eels, while new Sea Eagles No.6 Walsh is among the game’s brightest young playmaking talents.
HISTORY: Manly has won three of the archrivals’ last four encounters, including a 33-18 result at 4 Pines Park in Round 8 this year.
KEY STAT: These teams’ last seven encounters were all won by the home team.
VERDICT: The Eels are doing it tough with a hefty injury toll for a roster that already had gaping holes in it. As poor as Mitch Moses has been this year, the blue-and-golds rarely win without him.
Expect the Sea Eagles’ depth to come to the fore with Walsh a great halves replacement and Faulalo a luxury inclusion with Koula out. Manly has conceded more than 18 points just once under Kieran Foran, which tells you everything you need to know about this team’s attitude shift.
Prediction: Back the Eels to Score Under 20.5 Points @ $1.80
SGM: SEA EAGLES -8.5 / UNDER 49.5 POINTS / TOM TRBOJEVIC ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLAYTON FAULALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.46
Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Predictions
Riding an eight-match winning streak, the Dolphins confront arguably the biggest challenge in their run to date following the loss of their linchpin on top of a hefty Origin load.
FORM: The Knights have won six of their last seven games, including a gritty 12-6 defeat of the Tigers at home last Sunday.
After winning seven in a row by 14-plus margins, the Dolphins dug deep to beat the Warriors at the death – despite Isaiya Katoa going down with injury inside 15 minutes.
INS AND OUTS: Fletcher Sharpe shifts to fullback for Queensland star Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Hunt replaces NSW centre Bradman Best, while Sandon Smith comes into the halves for the Knights.
With Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo and Tom Flegler in the Maroons’ squad, Trai Fuller, Tevita Naufahu and Felise Kaufusi come into the Dolphins’ starting line-up, and Jake Averillo returns at centre with Jack Bostock selected for the Blues. Max Plath is also in the Queensland team.
Brad Schneider lines up at halfback with Isaiya Katoa sidelined and Tom Gilbert returns from injury.
KEY MATCH-UP: Fill-in No.1s Sharpe and Fuller rank among the NRL’s most exciting game-breakers.
HISTORY: The Knights are 5-1 against the Dolphins, winning all five clashes after dropping the first. Last year the battling outfit won 26-12 in Newcastle and 26-20 in Perth – accounting for a third of their 2026 victories.
KEY STAT: The Dolphins are searching for three straight interstate wins for the first time in their history.
VERDICT: Both sides boast handy depth to cover their Origin absentees, but it’s a very heavy toll for the Dolphins on top of the Katoa injury. Both teams are in a rich vein of form, too, though the Knights needed a bit of luck to get over the Dragons and Tigers.
The Dolphins are shaping as grand final material and still look capable of getting the job done despite their changes, have coped very well through the Origin period so far.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Win @ $1.87
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / DOMINIC YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KODI NIKORIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $33.07